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The Simple Six | DFS NFL Week 1 Fantasy Football Leans for DraftKings or Fanduel

There is so much NFL DFS content to consume. There are so many podcasts, websites, analysts breaking down the numbers and giving predictions. It is easy to get lost in the weeds.  My goal with column is to keep it simple and focused. What are my leans/ideas about this NFL slate that I feel most certain about, and how can put them into action?

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Aug 14, 2021; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears assistant wide receivers coach Chris Jackson talks with quarterback Andy Dalton (14) on the sideline during the first half against the Miami Dolphins at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports

1- Andy Dalton is overmatched against the Rams.

The Red Rifle is a lame duck quarterback. He knows it, the fans know, his teammates, and the opposition know it.  Justin Fields showed in the preseason that he is ready for action. He is so clearly better than Dalton. The only logic for keeping Fields on the bench is that they don’t want to throw the rookie to wolves week 1, on the road, against the formidable Rams defense. Thus, old Andy Dalton get to play the role of Aaron Donald’s crash test dummy.

Donald will be ready for prime time. Dalton will not. Jalen Ramsey will make life difficult for Allen Robinson. I will take advantage of this mismatch everywhere I can. I bought a half point on the betting line using sharpbets.app for a little line shopping, laying 7 at -120 on the Rams. When it comes to Survivor Pools, I am even using the Rams in week 1. I wish this game was on the main slate, but I’ll settle for using the Rams DST in all my Showdown lineups on DraftKings and occasionally at Captain.

 

2- Marquez Callaway is massively mispriced at $3,400 on DraftKings.

You can’t blame DK for this one. Week 1 pricing comes out early. They set this salary without knowing Michael Thomas would miss at least the first 6 weeks. They set Callaway’s price before seeing him look like a young Chris Godwin, lighting up the preseason with Jameis Winston. If salaries came out today, Callaway would see at least a 2k increase to $5,400.

This misprice is glaringly obvious and Callaway will certainly be owned (just look at our NFL Chalkboard Tool). There are plenty of other places to get different (just look at our NFL Pivot Tool). I will eat this chalk with a Joey Chestnut-like ferocity.

 

3- Kyle Pitts is also quite underpriced for DFS NFL.

You can blame DraftKings for this one. Everyone knew that Pitts was a beast long before he was drafted 4th overall to Atlanta. Pitts’ best ball ADP on DraftKings is 38 (dyk we offer a FREE 30 days of DFS Army VIP through UnderdogFantasy?). Hunters Henry’s is 163. Henry’s week 1 price is $4,700. Pitts is only $4,400. Someone needs to check the algorithm.

People will want to pay up for Kelce ($8,300) in a marquee match up verse Cleveland, or down for newly-minted Jets starter Tyler Kroft ($2,500). I’ll stick with the unicorn rookie in a 51 point total, indoors, against a soft Philly pass defense.

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4- The Cardinals’ NFL corners suck…. A.J. Brown and Julio Jones don’t.

Before you read any further (don’t cheat and peek at our WR/CB Matchup Tool), I challenge you to name a single corner on the Arizona Cardinals’ roster. I couldn’t without looking it up. Malcom Butler was supposed be their number one. He suddenly retired last week leaving Robert Alford and Byron Murphy as the starters.  The point of this article is to force myself, and train the reader, to cut through the noise and keep it simple.  It doesn’t get much simpler than the matchup advantage the Titans have at the wide receiver position.

In game with a 52 point total, that should be played at a high pace, I will have plenty of Tannehill to Brown and Tannehill to Julio stacks.

 

5- The Giants offense is a hot mess.  The Denver defense is not.

As a New York Giants fan, there are few people in this world who piss me off more than Dave Gettleman.  You could do an entire true crime style podcasts on the personnel mistakes he’s made during his tenure as GM.  The Giants were the first team to take an offensive linemen in the 2020 draft.  Tristan Wirfs was an All-Pro as a rookie for a Superbowl winning Bucs team.  Jedrick Wills and Mekhi Becton look like 10 year starters in the league for the Browns and Jets.  Andrew Thomas, taken before all of them looks like a turnstile.  PFF has the Giant offensive line ranked 32nd (our O-Line/D-Line Sheet may differ slightly), dead f’ing last, coming into the season.  Good luck trying to block Von Miller and Bradly Chubb week 1.

It doesn’t help that Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, and rookie 1st round pick Kadarius Toney have played a combine zero snaps in the preseason.  Tight End Evan Engram is also looking doubtful to play with a calf injury.

Daniel Jones turns the ball over at an alarming rate when under pressure (11 TD to 10 INT ratio according to our NFL Research Station) and there is no way he can have any kind of chemistry at this point with his main weapons.  The Broncos DST is relatively expensive on DK at $3,300, but we have no shortage of value due to the soft week 1 pricing.  We don’t usually advocate paying up for DST, however, I will be making an exception here.

 

6- James Robinson is too cheap on Fanduel at $5,900

This is another case of the early pricing being off.  When salary was released, Robinson looked liked the lesser half of a committee with rookie first round pick Travis Etienne. Sadly, for a decent amount of my best ball teams, Etienne had foot surgery and is out for the season.  There should be no shortage of carries and potentially goal-line work for Robinson against the wretched Houston Texans.

James Robinson is the only the 21st highest priced RB on Fanduel.  Our DFS Army projections have him is the 13th highest for projected points, and 2nd highest in projected points per dollar.  Take advantage of this discount!!

Speaking of discounts, you can get 20% off when you use code KICKOFF and sign up for our VIP access now. There is no better to time to take advantage of our cheat sheets, domination station optimizer, coaching, and discord community.  Start your NFL season off right by joining the DFS Army family today.

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