DFS Canadian Fantasy Football (CFL) Week 1 | 2021 Picks Projections Winning Lineup Strategy for Draftkings

Canadian Fantasy Football (CFL) can be incredibly lucrative if you know how to manipulate the roster requirements and scoring. Daily fantasy players (with little experience) can profit quickly with just some basic information because very little is written about CFL inside the industry. My name is DFS Spreadsheets (@dfs_spreadsheet on Twitter)  I’m a data analyst by trade, and love digging into the intricacies that give our players advantages no one else can deliver.

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CFL DFS Week One – Quick Glance

I will be incorporating more stats as the season progresses and data is collected. A lot can happen in a week for Canadian fantasy football. I won’t be updating this article with any roster changes etc but will be providing updates in our Discord channels.

Keep in mind that there haven’t been any games since 2019, no exhibition games and teams have had a lot of turnover. Expect the unexpected in the first few weeks as teams and players get everything figured out.

 

Hamilton @ Winnipeg

Using splits data, Hamilton as a 56%/44% run/pass ratio on the road and Winnipeg has a 51%/49% run/pass ratio at home.

Passing Game

HAM-QB-Jeremiah Masoli-$9800 – QB surrounded by stud receivers.
HAM-WR-Brandon Banks-$10800 – Cream of the CFL WR crop. Expensive but averaged 9 targets per game, had 1500 receiving yards and 13 TD’s.
HAM-WR-Bralon Addison-$9700 – Over 7 targets per game. Over 1200 receiving yards and picked up over 200 more on the ground
HAM-WR-Jaelon Acklin-$6400 – Had average depth of target of 9.9 last season
WPG-WR-Kenny Lawler Jr.-$5900 – Not too excited about this but did lead the team with 13.2 yards average depth of target last season
WPG-WR-Darvin Adams-$7600 – Had under 5 targets per game and an average average depth of target of 11.9
WPG-WR-Rasheed Bailey-$5700 – Only played 4 games but averaged 6 targets per game
WPG-WR-Nic Demski-$5800 – Only averaged 3.7 targets. Gets some work in the backfield

Running Game

WPG-RB-Andrew Harris-$9100 – Has been focal point of the offence for years. Getting older, injury concerns and price is a little high
HAM-RB-Sean Thomas-Erlington-$8100 – Had a great start to last season before injury. No idea how many heads will need to be fed in the backfield, but he is a pass catcher in a pass-happy offence. Not crazy about the price

NOTE: If Harris is unable to play, keep an eye on news for his replacement. They would become big-time chalk
WPG-RB-Johnny Augustin-$5400
WPG-RB-Brady Oliveira-$5300

 

B.C @ Saskatchewan

Using splits data, BC has a 57%/43% run/pass ratio on the road and Saskatchewan has a 58%/42% run/pass ratio at home.

Passing Game

SSK-QB-Cody Fajardo-$10400 – Highest priced QB. Provides big rushing upside.
SSK-WR-Shaq Evans-$9000 – Deep threat. Averaged over 6 targets per game in 2019. Had an average depth of target of 15.1 yards
SSK-WR-Kyran Moore-$7000 – Led team with 6 receiving TD. Averaged over 5 targets per game.
SSK-WR-Jordan Williams-Lambert-$4400 – I like the price. Riders lost Naaman Roosevelt and his 112 targets. JWill should be in line to get a bunch of them

BC-QB-Michael Reilly-$8700 – Loads of weapons, cheaper than most QB options this week
BC-WR-Bryan Burnham-$9600 – Over 8 targets per game, 1489 receiving yards and average depth of target of 13.1
BC-WR-Dominique Rhymes-$7400 – Had over 1000 yards on a 3 win Ottawa team last season. Better team, better QB this season
BC-WR-Lemar Durant-$7100 – 5.5 targets per game and just shy of 800 receiving yards. Don’t love the price
BC-WR-Lucky Whitehead-$6900 – Speed kills. Led Winnipeg WR in receptions last year despite only playing 15 games. Fresh start with BC

Running Game

SSK-RB-William Powell-$8700 – Priced a little high for me. Loses goal-line carries to Fajardo
BC-RB-Shaq Cooper-$7600 – Fresh start for Cooper. Excited to see what he can do in a starting role. Averaged 5.4 ypc and over 3.5 targets in limited time with Edmonton

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Toronto @ Calgary

Using splits data, Toronto has a 72%/28% run/pass ratio on the road and Calgary has a 68%/32% run/pass ratio at home.

Passing Game

CGY-QB-Bo Levi Mitchell-$9600 – Priced a little high for me. Lost top 2 wr this season. Interested in seeing who steps up from this group
CGY-WR-Markeith Ambles-$6000 –  52 targets in 9 games. Had an average depth of target of  11.0, 0 TD
CGY-WR-Hergy Mayala-$5900 – 45 targets in 11 games. Had an average depth of target of  11.7, 5 TD
CGY-WR-Josh Huff-$5800 – 54 targets in 10 games. Had an average depth of target of  9.5, 1 TD
CGY-WR-Kamar Jorden-$5300 – Returns after 2 years off. Averaged over 7 targets per game (10 games) in 2018 with 6 TD and 12.2 average depth of target. Led team with 938 receiving yards.

TOR-QB-Nick Arbuckle-$8000 /TOR-QB-McLeod Bethel-Thompson-$7500 – Waiting on Arbuckle injury news. Both QB are underpriced.  A lot of new weapons in TO this season. Who knows how the target share will play out.
TOR-WR-Eric Rogers-$9200 – Had over 1000 yards with Calgary in 2019
TOR-WR-DaVaris Daniels-$7700 – Comes over from Edmonton. Had an average depth of target of 13 yards
TOR-WR-Ricky Collins Jr.-$7500 – Had over 1100 yards with Edmonton in 2019, and 111 targets
TOR-WR-Juwan Brescacin-$6800 – Only played 4 games with Calgary in 2019 but had an average depth of target of  15.6

Running Game

CGY-RB-Ka’Deem Carey-$7100 – Averaged 5.7 ypc in 8 games. Also average 2.6 targets. I like the price here
TOR-RB-John White IV-$8000 – Had over 1000 yards with BC in 2019 and 7 rushing TD. Also had  341 receiving yards. Will he get the same amount of carries in this new offence? Time will tell.

Ottawa @ Edmonton

Using splits data, Ottawa has a 67%/33% run/pass ratio on the road and Edmonton has a 62%/38% run/pass ratio at home.

Passing Game

EDM-QB-Trevor Harris-$9400 – Loads of options vs a team that has an over/under of 3.5 wins this season. Problem is trying to figure out who is going to get the targets
EDM-WR-Derel Walker-$8500 – Over 1000 yards and average depth of target of 15.3 in Toronto in 2019
EDM-WR-Greg Ellingson-$8400 – Almost 8 targets per game, over 1100 receiving yards
EDM-WR-Armanti Edwards-$7200 – Over 1000 yards with Toronto in 2019 and average depth of target of 14.1
EDM-WR-Tevaun Smith-$5600 – I like the price. Had 6 receiving TDs (led the team) on 79 targets

OTT-WR-R.J. Harris-$6600 – Had 6.5 targets per game in 2019. Priced pretty high in what everyone thinks will be the league’s worst offence
OTT-WR-DeVonte Dedmon-$6200 – Only played 3 games in 2019. Blazing fast, sees time on return team. Same concerns as R.J Harris

Running Game

EDM-RB-James Wilder Jr.-$8200 – Gets a fresh start in Edmonton. Can be a top back in this offence
OTT-RB-Tim Flanders-$2500 – Labeled as the starter. Not sure how much work he’ll get. Hasn’t really had any snaps since 2017. Could definitely get you a 0 but it does open things up in a GPP. MME type of play only.

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CFL DFS Fantasy Football

Nov 24, 2019; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Hamilton Tiger-Cats wide receiver Brandon Banks (16) runs with the ball in front of Winnipeg Blue Bombers defensive back Mike Jones (16) in the first half during the 107th Grey Cup championship football game at McMahon Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports