2021 NASCAR Cup Series DFS Power Rankings - Season Preview

What’s up, everyone?! This will be the debut edition of our DFS Army NASCAR Cup Series Power Rankings. Starting in 2021, if all goes well, we are going to offer a weekly article talking about the top 15 DFS plays for the coming week. These rankings will be based on a driver’s value to a slate. A cheap play that would be key to building an optimal lineup could be a top 5 play of the week. Think Bubba Wallace at Martinsville the last couple of years.  Like all power rankings, these will be to drive conversation and engagement. With that said let’s get going!

The NASCAR season is here!! The first month and a half of the NASCAR season is the best time to sign up for the DFS Army. The first week alone will have 6 DFS playable races and through the end of March, there are 21 races. We see 5 different track types including a road course and the first-ever Dirt race at Bristol. Join the winning team NOW and get the best DFS coverage in existence. Promo Code LARKIN gets you 10% off!! The DFS Army now offers a NASCAR specific package if you are looking for focused coverage.

 

 

#1 Chase Elliott

The defending Cup Series champion not only was extremely strong last year but has been gifted the perfect schedule to do even better in 2021. Let’s start on the road courses. He has won the last 4 road courses races. There were only two such races last year. There will be seven this year. He dominated Martinsville and Phoenix last time at both tracks. The Cup Series races at each track twice. The Cup Series ran Darlington 3 times last year and you may or may not remember but Chase got wrecked by Kyle Busch in May passing for 2nd and wrecked by Truex battling for the lead in September. There are two races there as well.  He won the All-Star race at Bristol and has had success on SuperSpeedways. He should be a top favorite to win over half the races in 2021. He is also my pick to lead the most laps and score the most fast laps making him the best DFS dominator of the year.

#2 Martin Truex Jr.

Truex had such a good 2020 in every aspect other than wins. The year started with Truex getting acclimated with new crew chief James Small. It was a rough start for sure but by mid-season Truex really hit his stride. From Kentucky to Vegas, a 14 race span, Truex scored 11 finishes of 4th or better. He had incidents in the other 3 races. One of which was Darlington, battling Chase, that he should have won. He probably should have had 4-5 wins last year. He ranked 5th in laps led and was 3rd in fastest laps. I expect Truex to get off to a better start this year and to score multiple race wins. He is another driver who will benefit massively from the additional road course races as well.

#3 Brad Keselowski

Brad is consistently priced under his contemporaries. He is a top dominator threat and always seems to score 3-4 wins. He is also a cash monster. Keselowski ranked 1st in quality passes and 3rd in laps inside the top 15 last year. That means not only was he always running towards the front but he was able to make competitive passes against the top drivers. He ranked 4th in laps led and 6th in fast laps last year. I expect his team to continue their short, flat-track dominance and for BK to rack up 4 or 5 wins in 2021. More importantly, I believe there will be races where he holds value even if he isn’t a main dominator simply because of pricing.

#4 Bubba Wallace 

This pick being 4th overall is completely reliant on Pricing but I firmly believe DraftKings and FanDuel will have Bubba underpriced. This is perhaps the most well-funded team in the sport from a pure sponsorship standpoint. They are a legit 5th Gibbs car regardless of how they want to paint it. He will have the ability to run top 10 many weeks. From a talent standpoint, I believe Bubba is underrated. He is a top restarted and has an aggressive style that gives him the ability to push his way up the running order better than a lot of drivers in the series. I would put his value around $8,500-$9,000 on the non-road course races. If he comes anywhere under $8,000, which I expect he will, then he is going to offer incredible value. A strong value play.

The DFS Army are the absolute best when it comes to NASCAR DFS. That isn’t hyperbole. On a weekly basis we beat everyone. If you want the best, most accurate content then be sure to sign up and join the winning team. Join the DFS Army today  to gain access to our NASCAR Research Station (Cup/Xfinity/Truck Series), NASCAR Domination Station Optimizer (Cup/Xfinity/Truck Series), Coaches Notes/Driver Picks, NASCAR Tools, Coaching, Chat, and more! The DFS Army now offers a NASCAR specific package if you are looking for focused coverage. If you are looking for DFS coverage of every sport though, the DFS Army also offers a complete VIP package that gives you access to every single DFS sport.

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#5 Kyle Larson

I am super high on Larson’s upside for 2021. I think he could end up scoring 4 or 5 wins and have a ton of fast laps. The step-up in equipment for Larson can not be understated enough. Taking a 12th place car and finishing 5th is something he did often. Now he will get top 5 cars and be in much better track position situations from the start. HMS has a strong 1.5-mile program and he very well could jump out with wins early. Races at Homestead, Vegas, and Atlanta make up the month of March. All tracks he is extremely well suited for. He is also a beast at Phoenix, a track HMS clearly is good at as well. He follows that 4 race stretch up with a Dirt race at Bristol which he will be the favorite to win. He has been solid on road courses as well and now gets the best team on that track type at his disposal. There could be some serious value here with a driver who might be underpriced due to being gone for the past year.

#6 Daniel Suarez

Suarez is with a new team that will have much better funding and equipment than last year. I see this being a year where he scores a bunch of top 20s and is consistently staying out of trouble getting the best finishes possible. He will most certainly be underpriced to start the year based on last year and I believe he is going to be our in line for best low tier value play of the season. Priced like a driver who will finish 27th and scoring top 20s would be fantastic.

#7 Ryan Preece

The #37 of Ryan Preece will not have a charter for the 2021 season and only has funding for 20 races. NASCAR announced that the series will only have qualifying for the Daytona 500, Coke 600, Season Finale, and the five new races to the schedule. That means the starting lineup for the other 28 races will be based on their super complicated algorithm. This is the key part of Preece being #7 on this list. The equation for starting position is 35% based of owners points which will limit hiw high he can start. Preece had an average finish of 24th in 2020 in a year where everything that could go wrong did. He finished the year with 8 top 20s in his last 10 races and showed that he is actually a very solid driver. Pricing wise he was reguraly one of the lowest and had top 15 upside at under $6,000 which made him an absolute steal.

#8 Ryan Blaney

Blaney had a strong 2020 season finishing 5th in fast laps and 7th in laps led. He has speed at every track type which is a promising sign and he is at the experience level now where he should start closing out these strong runs with top 3 finishes. He is another driver I bump up due to the added road course races in 2021. He has 4 top 5s and a win in the last 6 Cup road course races, He has a top 5 at Sonoma, The Glen, and The Roval meaning it gets it done on every type of RC. When you compare that to his teammate Joey Logano, who has 1 top 5 in his last 10 road course races, you can see why he ranks higher. Blaney almost always offers a pricing advantage as well compared to his contemporaries.

#9 Denny Hamlin

Hamlin has been incredible the last two years. He is in the prime of his career and I expect he will contend for multiple wins this year. Speed won’t be an issue but I do think there could be a decent amount of regression to the average of elite drivers. 3-5 wins. 12 top 5s. A great year but a sizeable drop from last year. I see him scoring similarly to Keselowski, Blaney, Larson but at a much higher price point. Overall, Hamlin will have a very good year and be a strong dominator many weeks but there will be too many where he doesn’t pay off his price. Another thing that should knock Hamlin down a bit is the positive regression that is due for Truex and Kyle Busch.

#10 Kyle Busch

Speaking of Kyle Busch, I expect that positive regression to put him in a position to have a very valuable year in DFS. I think he gets back to winning 3-4 races this year. I also expect that he will get back to being a beast on road courses. Sonoma 2015 to Sonoma 2019 KB finished 7th or better in 9 of 10 road course races. He is good everywhere and I believe a rejuvenated KB with a new crew chief will have a strong 2021.

#11 Corey Lajoie

Corey Lajoie joins Spire Motorsports for the 2021 season driving the #7. Spire have purchased cars from Chip Ganassi and will get engines and transmissions from HMS. This is perhaps my favorite area to attack for DFS. Nobody is going to trust a Spire car when it comes to DFS. He is going to be treated as a 30th place car but in reality, we will see him finish top 25 a lot. There are unknowns of course but I have faith that Lajoie will become one of the top value plays of 2021. Well, at least until everyone figures it out.

#12 Chase Briscoe

I am doing a bit of guessing on Briscoe holding good value based on my hope that he is priced between $7,000-$7,500 on DK. They may think he is some superstar based on Xfinity and overprice him though. I see him running similar to how Custer ran last year. Lots of top 15 potential and scoring a few top 10s. The big benefit with Briscoe, much like many on this list, are the road course races and the Dirt race at Bristol. Briscoe comes from a dirt background and even won a truck race at Eldora. He became a bit of a road course beast last year in the Xfinity Series as well as going toe to toe with Austin Cindric and Aj Allmendinger who are road course aces. He won at Indy, was 3rd at Road America, and was on the verge of winning the Roval before finding a huge puddle during the monsoon that happened during that race. My thought is he will be a solid value option who will find his way onto optimal lineups multiple times in 2021.

The DFS Army are the absolute best when it comes to NASCAR DFS. That isn’t hyperbole, on a weekly basis we beat everyone. If you want the best, most accurate content then be sure to sign up and join the winning team. Join the DFS Army today to gain access to our NASCAR Research Station (Cup/Xfinity/Truck Series), NASCAR Domination Station Optimizer (Cup/Xfinity/Truck Series), Coaches Notes/Driver Picks, NASCAR Tools, Coaching, Chat, and more! The DFS Army now offers a NASCAR specific package if you are looking for focused coverage. If you are looking for DFS coverage of every sport though, the DFS Army also offers a complete VIP package that gives you access to every single DFS sport.

Promo Code Larkin gets you 10% off membership!!

#13 Joey Logano

Logano is as consistent as they come. Always running top 10. Wins a couple races. Scores a bunch of fast laps and laps led. I have him running a little worse than Keselowski and on par with what Blaney produces. He should slot in around the same price as Keselowski and just above his teammate Blaney. Solid as ever I just favor Keselowski head to head and I think the price break we get on Blaney is more valuable. Logano will have his moments though.

#14 Kevin Harvick

I wanted to leave Harvick off this list but I just would have felt like too much of an ass doing so. Harvick will rightfully so be one of the 2 highest priced drivers most weeks based on his unreal season in 2020. The problem is I don’t see him scoring anywhere near as many fast laps, laps led, or race wins. He will have is moments at tracks like Atlanta and Darlington but overall I believe he will struggle to be of value and pay off his price point. The track types Harvick was best at in 2020 are seemingly nonexistent in 2021. Indy oval, gone. Michigan, where he won back to back races, now only has 1 race. Dover, a track he has been crushing in recent years, down to only 1 race as well. Texas, down to one race. Kentucky gone. Cali gone. These are all tracks that he reasonably would have be the favorite to win at. Bristol dirt is not a race we should expect him to be good at. We shouldn’t expect big short track improvements either. This is a driver who only scored 1 top 5 in his last 6 races to finish the year. I am expecting a solid amount of regression from him. That said he will still have races where he dominates and wins so we have to give him some respect. We will just have to be willing to fade him a lot this year as well.

#15 Chris Buescher

Buescher had a rough season last year. I do not believe Roush will have made any significant gains speed wise, but I think a simple positive regression in terms of luck is due. I am anticipating a driver who starts mid 20s most weeks but will often offer solid positive place differential numbers at a cheap price. A solid overall value play to round out lineups.

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This will conclude the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series DFS Power Rankings Season Preview. I hope you enjoyed it and picked up some extra knowledge to help going into the new season. If you would like to follow me on Twitter you can @Larkin8. Most importantly I hope you will join us at the DFS Army and become a VIP member. Join today and use my promo code LARKIN for 10% off VIP membership