2021 NASCAR Cup Series Season Preview for DFS

Welcome everyone to the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season preview. Here we will be taking a look at the many changes that occurred during the offseason. We will also take a look at what we can expect from these changes as well as some of the preseason top plays. This article is brought to you by DFSArmy.com and written by Ryan Larkin. You can catch up with Ryan on Twitter @Larkin8 or in the DFSA VIP slack.

The first month and a half of the NASCAR season is the best time to sign up for the DFS Army. The first week alone will have 6 DFS playable races and through the end of March, there are 21 races. We see 5 different track types including a road course and the first-ever Dirt race at Bristol. Join the winning team NOW and get the best DFS coverage in existence. Promo Code LARKIN gets you 10% off!! The DFS Army now offers a NASCAR specific package if you are looking for focused coverage.

2021 NASCAR Cup Series Season

The coming 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season is finally here. The first race, the Busch Clash, will be Feb. 8th. We have tons of changes to look forward to for the new year. Driver changes, crew chief changes, a bunch of schedule changes, and even a few new teams. There are a lot of unknowns as a result of these changes and predict what they might mean. Personally, I am very interested in the newer teams that are going to make up the lower level of pricing for DK to start the year. There could be a lot of great value out there to take advantage of.

 

Team Changes

NASCAR as a whole is in a bit of transition. This is bringing in new companies and investors at a much higher rate than normal. One of the major reasons for the influx in 2021 is that this is the final year of the current Cup Series car. Next year, will see a brand new design of car built around a spec chassis and numerous spec parts. These are changes that will hopefully eliminate cost for teams. Every team will be using the same chassis next year. Going forward the hope is this brings down the cost for teams but also levels the playing field. Since this is the last year for the current generation of car, teams like HMS, RCR, Penske, etc are selling their older equipment at a much lower cost. Meaning start-up costs are less than what they normally would be. This allows teams to get things up and running cheaper and to get ready for the new car which they hope will allow them to compete at a much lower cost. In this section, we will take a look at the team changes for the 2021 season and what we can possibly expect for a DFS impact.

23XI

The team making the most noise this offseason was 23XI. The team is co-owned by Denny Hamlin and some basketball guy named Michael Jordan. They will receive support from Joe Gibbs Racing and the car will be driven by Bubba Wallace. Tons of sponsorship support for this team is a huge factor in their ability to hit the ground running in 2021. The crew chief will be Mike Wheeler who most recently served as crew chief for the #95 with Matt Dibenedetto. Wheeler also was the crew chief for Hamlin from 2016-2018 winning 5 races. My expectation is for this team to score a few top 10s but run closer to the 15th-18th range on average. I would expect Bubba to start the year way underpriced which will give him great value. One of my favorite pre-season plays.

Trackhorse Racing Team

Trackhorse will run the #99 car with Daniel Suarez as its driver. The team will run chevy’s and has a technical alliance with RCR. This is where a new start-up team gets equipment from a mid-tier team to get the feet under them. I expect them to compete with the Front Row, JTG, and RPM cars for 20th-25th. Suarez is a decent driver and he will offer value to start out the year. I see him as one of those drivers always in play in the low tier. Some races he will run 26th and be useless while in others he will finish 19th and be optimal. He will be someone to watch in DFS.

Spire #7

Spire Motorsports will field a second team in 2021 with Corey Lajoie as the driver. They have purchased cars from Chip Ganassi and will get engines and transmissions from HMS. This is perhaps my favorite area to attack for DFS. Nobody is going to trust a Spire car when it comes to DFS. He is going to be treated as a 30th place car but in reality we will see him finish top 25 a lot. There are unknowns of course but I have faith that Lajoie will become one of the top value plays of 2021. Well, at least until everyone figures it out.

Live Fast Motorsports

Live Fast is co owned by Matt Tifft, Joe Falk, and BJ McLeod. They will use the #78 for the year and they have a technical alliance with Stewart-Haas. They bought their charter from Go Fas who recently scaled down their program. Go Fas had a technical alliance with SHR when it ran full time. My assumption is that the new team purchased the charter and some equipment and will essentially take over the place of Go Fas in terms of quality. BJ McLeod will drive the car but I wouldn’t be shocked if they rent the car out some as well. If they can run 28th-30th like Go Fas did and McLeod is one of the lowest priced drivers like he was in 2020 then there could be some punt value here. It will be interesting to see how they run in 2021.

NY Racing Team

A non-charter team which means they will not be locked into races. They have a poor track record and will be one of the super punt plays we likely avoid. No driver has been announced but it really won’t matter. If they make the race they will be one of those near fades.

Kaulig Racing

Kaulig will be fielding a part-time team that has plans to run 11 races. It will be a shared ride with Kaz Grala and AJ Allmendinger already slated to drive. There are expectations that Justin Haley and Jeb Burton could drive for the team depending on sponsorship. They will run the superspeedways and road courses which are track types that should give them the ability to compete for top 10s. They have an alliance with RCR.

Penske

Penske will field a 4th car occasionally for Austin Cindric to get some Cup experience. I would assume he will race more ovals and short tracks. These are areas that he still needs to improve. It wouldn’t make sense for him to run road course races since he is already one of the best at that discipline. It will be interesting to see what we get from him as far as DFS goes.

The DFS Army are the absolute best when it comes to NASCAR DFS. That isn’t hyperbole. On a weekly basis we beat everyone. If you want the best, most accurate content then be sure to sign up and join the winning team. Join the DFS Army today  to gain access to our NASCAR Research Station (Cup/Xfinity/Truck Series), NASCAR Domination Station Optimizer (Cup/Xfinity/Truck Series), Coaches Notes/Driver Picks, NASCAR Tools, Coaching, Chat, and more! The DFS Army now offers a NASCAR specific package if you are looking for focused coverage. If you are looking for DFS coverage of every sport though, the DFS Army also offers a complete VIP package that gives you access to every single DFS sport.

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Driver Changes

Ross Chastain – Chastain will take over the #42 for the departing Matt Kenseth. Chastain had a semi-successful Xfinity Series run last year with a ton of top 10s and top 5s but was unable to find victory lane. Personally, I think he is an average driver who won’t offer CGR any real performance gains. My expectation is a driver who struggles for top 10s and looks poor in comparison to teammate Kurt Busch. He could have some DFS viability though depending on how his pricing is on both DK and FD. Important to remember they have been pricing him as a low tier punt for years now and may not make the correct adjustment

Kyle Larson – After a bit of a timeout, Larson is back in NASCAR and gets a massive step up in equipment quality. I do believe there will be an acclimation process but overall I expect Larson to come in and make an impact early. He of course gets the benefit of the Bristol dirt race. Also, an HMS team that has the road course package figured out. I think he will slot in as a big threat at Kansas, Atlanta, and Homestead. I expect Larson to score some wins in 2021 and that he could be a top DFS play many weeks. This will essentially be the #48 team from last year with Cliff Daniels serving as crew chief.

Erik Jones – Jones was let go by Joe Gibbs and found his only real landing spot to be the 43 car of Richard Petty Motorsports. A huge step down in the quality of equipment will likely see Jones running 20th-25th most weeks. I think Jones is a slight step up from Bubba Wallace for the team but Bubba’s restarting ability really helped the team overachieve last year. The equipment quality just won’t be there for Jones, unfortunately. I will be staying off Jones for DFS a lot in 2021.

Christopher Bell – Bell will replace Jones in the #20 for Joe Gibbs. While we can expect many good runs and for him to compete for wins it is to important he is a driver in only his 2nd full year making a team change. Plenty of top 10s to be had for him but I would limit expectations especially with a large number of races without Practice or qualifying again this year. If the Gibbs ars have race winning speed any race this year then it stands to reason that Hamlin, Busch, or Truex would be more likely to score wins and top 5s. I look for Bell to take 15 races to get acclimated and start pulling off better finishes later in the year. As for DFS he could be a killer play depending on pricing. Big question on if the sites adapt to his new team or if we are able to get some value on him.

Anthony Alfredo – Alfredo will take over the #38 driven by John Hunter Nemechek last year. Alfredo is not close to the talent JHN is and I expect this team to take a step back in 2021. Look for Alfredo to run 25th-28th most races and unless he offers some clear cure place differential opportunities then I will be fading most weeks.

Chase Briscoe – Chase will take over the #14 car with Clint Bowyer retiring and heading to the broadcast booth. Briscoe should come in and be rather successful out the gate. The biggest benefit for him will be the 7 road course races on the schedule. We saw him be a top driver on them last year in the Xfinity Series even out running AJ Allmendinger and Austin Cindric, two road course aces. He also comes from a dirt background and should be strong on the Bristol dirt. I think we will get a lot of races where he is in the optimal lineup in 2021.

Schedule changes

We have a ton of schedule changes on tap for the 2021 season. We will now see SEVEN road course races and even a dirt race which will take place at Bristol. There are a total of five tracks that will be new to the Cup Series. Even the All Star race will move locations. Kentucky, Chicago, and Auto Club will not host races in 2021. Dover will transfer one of its races to Nashville Superspeedway. Atlanta and Darlington will both host two races.

• Busch Clash – The Clash which takes place Feb. 8th will be contested on the Daytona road course for the first time. This will replace the ridiculousness that had become this race on the oval. 35 lap race. All about place diff and high finishers
• Daytona Road Course – Yes, the Cup Series raced on the road course last year but that was not the plan for 2021 until mid December when it was decided that the series would not race at Auto Club Speedway this year. The Daytona RC will serve as the second race on the Cup Series schedule and will take place a week after the Daytona 500. 70 lap race. Place diff and top finishers will be key for DFS
• Bristol Dirt- For the first time since 1970 the Cup Series will compete on a dirt surface. Since early January Bristol has been laying down the dirt surface offer the concrete track which will be used for the March 28th race. It will have 19 degrees of banking with the race expected to be 250 laps. Will want to focus on top dirt races especially those who can dominate or DFS
• Circuit of the Americas – COTA is a phenomenal road course facility that has hosted F1 and other major series since 2012. NASCAR will make its first appearance there in May and will use the full 3.41 mile track layout. This will take the place of the early Texas Motor Speedway points race. Race length TBD but I expect 70ish laps.
• All-Star Race Texas – Texas will become the 4th track to host a Cup Series All-Star race. This move was made to shake things up schedule wise but to also keep a second date at one of NASCAR’s most prominent tracks. SMI which owns Texas, Charlotte, Bristol, and many other tracks NASCAR races on, has control of the All-Star race location. While Texas might not be the top choice for this race, I personally do appreciate SMI’s willingness to change locations. For a long time they have blocked COTA races and changes in their race schedule.
• Nashville Superspeedway – For the first time ever the Cup Series will race at Nashville Superspeedway. The Xfinity and Trucks have race there in the past with the most recent race taking place in 2011. Nashville is a 1.3 mile concrete intermediate track that was built just outside Nashville. The track never really took hold and NASCAR left it for a decade. Now with a massive push to get NASCAR into the Nashville market they are bringing back racing to the track. Nashville is owned by Dover Motorsports which is why it was so easy to take a race from Dover and give it to Nashville. The race will be 300 laps. All about those doms and track position will be key.
• Road America – Road America is another new road course on the schedule. Xfinity has raced there for over a decade now putting on some incredible races. It will be a short 62 lap race meaning place differential plays and top 5 finishers will be key for DFS.
• Indianapolis Road Course – The Cup Series will no longer race on the massive 2.5 mile oval. They will now shift to the road course layout that the Xfinity Series raced on last year. 82 lap race is decent length for a road course.

The DFS Army are the absolute best when it comes to NASCAR DFS. That isn’t hyperbole, on a weekly basis we beat everyone. If you want the best, most accurate content then be sure to sign up and join the winning team. Join the DFS Army today to gain access to our NASCAR Research Station (Cup/Xfinity/Truck Series), NASCAR Domination Station Optimizer (Cup/Xfinity/Truck Series), Coaches Notes/Driver Picks, NASCAR Tools, Coaching, Chat, and more! The DFS Army now offers a NASCAR specific package if you are looking for focused coverage. If you are looking for DFS coverage of every sport though, the DFS Army also offers a complete VIP package that gives you access to every single DFS sport.

Promo Code Larkin gets you 10% off membership!!

Top Plays

I believe that we will have a very similar season to last year. Teams have been restricted in how they can advance the current car in an effort to prevent them from spending money on a car that will not be used after 2021. There might be little gains by teams in certain areas but I expect we can really rely on 2020 results to help for the new year.

Chase Elliott

Feels a bit lazy picking a defending champion but this current schedule sets up perfectly for Chase Elliott. He has won the last 4 road course races that the Cup Series has raced and now there are 7 on the schedule. He was untouchable at Martinsville and Phoenix late last year and historically has been fantastic at Kansas. All tracks they race at twice in 2021. Also, we still have 4 Superspeedway races that HMS and Chase are very good at. I would say he is a top 3 favorite to win half the races next year. We could see a massive year for Chase in terms of wins, laps led, and fast laps. Confindence should also be at an all time high which is always a good thing. I think Chase will contend for most wins and top 5s on the year.

Bubba Wallace

I believe this is a really good situation for Bubba Wallace in terms of quality of equipment and team support. This is a driver who since racing the #6 Xfinity car has had neither. At Roush in the Xfinity program he finished 8th or better 7 of his 9 non-plate races before the team shutdown due to lack of funding. He then jumped into an RPM car that saw its biggest sponsor leave with Almirola relegatting it to one of the most under funded teams in the Cup Series. He doubled his top 20 finishes in 2020 from the previous year and he did so by being one of the absolute best restarters in the series. He will likely struggle on the road courses which have been a poor area his whole career but I believe he will be a consistent top 15 driver on the standard ovals. If this is the case and he doesn’t see a massive price increase over the previous year then he will have tons of DFS value in that low-mid range area. He should cost $8200-8500 and I expect we get him at $7000.

Brad Keselowski

Brad never seems to find his way as the most expensive or even into that top 3-5 most expensive. There always seems to be a few drivers DK and FD price higher. I hope this continues in 2021 and that there will be some extra value in BK. If he can start the year with a couple bad finishes that could help set his price below the likes of Hamlin, Harvick, Chase, Truex, etc. Keselowski ranked 1st in quality passes and 3rd in laps inside the top 15 last year. That means not only was he always running towards the front but he was able to make competitive passes against the top drivers. He ranked 4th in laps led and 6th in fast laps last year. I expect his team to continue their short, flat track dominace and for BK to rack up 4 or 5 wins in 2021. More importantly I believe there will be races where he holds value even if he isn’t a main dominator simply because of pricing.

Top Fades

Kevin Harvick

I am sure this seems a bit ridiculous but I just need you to hear me out for a second. The schedule changes are very negative for Harvick overall. Seven road course races is horrible for him and SHR as a whole. For more info on the road course struggles I would recommend listening to the Positive Regression podcast. Something you should already be listening to if you play DFS.  Secondly, the track type Harvick was best at in 2020 is seemingly nonexistent in 2021. Indy oval, gone. Michigan, where he won back to back races, now only has 1 race. Dover, a track he has been crushing in recent years, down to only 1 race as well. Texas, down to one race. Kentucky gone. Cali gone. These are all tracks that he reasonably would have be the favorite to win at. Bristol dirt is not one of those we should expect him to be good at. We shouldn’t expect big short track improvements either. Do I think he wins 3 or 4 races still, sure. Do I think he scores 20+ top 5s, leads the most laps, and scores the most fast laps again. Absolutely not. More often than not he will not pay off his enormous price tag. Races at Darlington and Atlanta you will smash him of course but with negative momentum to end the year and an unfriendly schedule should hinder Harvicks DFS scoring ability.

Anthony Alfredo

I touched on this above but I truly see Alfredo as one of the biggest fades of 2021. The only thing that can save him will be a pricing situation that sees him at $5,500 or lower on DK and maybe $4,000 on FD. This is a driver with minimal talent and experience. He ran 13 truck races and scored 2 top 10s. He then graduated to Xfinity, some how….$$$, to the #21 car. That is the team Reddick won a championship with if you were wondering. It was an extremely fast car that he managed 2 top 5s in 19 races in a weak Xfinity field. Now he is jumping into a car which has about 28th place speed having never been in a Cup car and will have a total of 8 races with practice. Never raced a NASCAR road course race before. There is literally zero positive aspects to him for this season. I believe he will regularly struggle to break into the top 25 unless we get crash filled races. Oh and he has a crash habit.

Erik Jones

I love Erik Jones as a talent and I believe he is completely underappreciated. It is hard being 22-23 years old on a team with Kyle Busch, Hamlin, and Truex. Driving for a team where wins are expected but you have to beat the elite of the elite within your own team. Keep in mind Busch and Truex had only 1 win each last year. With that said he was let go by Joe Gibbs following last year and will move to the #43 of Richard Petty Motorsports. He went from a car with top 5 upside to a car that will struggle for top 20s. I don’t expect for the DFS sites to correctly adjust his pricing enough either. I feel like this will be a year of struggles and I do not think the road course heavy schedule will do him any favors either. I hope he can have a solid year as a fan but I will be very cautious when it comes to DFS viability.

What can the DFS Army do for you!!!

I want to take a quick break to let everyone know exactly what we offer in detail here at DFS Army. For the new NASCAR season we will offer the following of premium VIP content:

• Direct coaching from our NASCAR staff via VIP Slack chat – Every VIP member is welcome to ask questions, talk strategy or just have fun talking NASCAR. We even started an iracing league out of the friendships built here.
• Weekly articles specific to each NASCAR DFS series previewing each race
• Post qualifying DFS breakdown articles for Cup Series races
• Post qualifying VIP coaches notes for ALL THREE series
• VIP Research Station tailored to each individual race for all three series
• VIP Domination Station optimizer for each race of all three series
• We will also be offering tutorial podcast and articles throught the season to help our members learn how to be better DFS players.

Our group strives to bring you the most up to date information for one of the most time-sensitive DFS sports. We love what we do and it shows in the top quality content we produce week in and week out. The only way to get access to all this elite content is to Come join the best team in NASCAR DFS and become a VIP member. Use promo code LARKIN for 10% off membership for life.

Check out some of our other DFS Army NASCAR content for the 2021 season!!!

2021 NASCAR Truck Series Season Preview

2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series Season Preview

DFS Army Strategy Series – NASCAR Scoring Fanduel vs Draftkings

 

 

This will conclude the 2021 Cup Series Preview. I hope you enjoyed it and picked up some extra knowledge to help going into the new season. If you would like to follow me on Twitter you can @Larkin8. Most importantly I hope you will join us at the DFS Army and become a VIP member. Join today and use my promo code LARKIN for 10% off membership