BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC Vegas 17 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
This weekend, we have a 13 or 14 fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. This is a solid card to end the year and DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $18 buy-in & $50k goes to 1st place with $200k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games & look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience & you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player & it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups & 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights, & hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
UPDATE – I am hearing Christos Giagos might take Rick Glenn’s place in the fight with Carlton Minus. Hit me up on fight day and I can let you know what I did with this fight. DFS ARMY members can just check the coaches notes or hit me in Slack.
Jimmy Flick $8,700 vs Cody Durden $7,500
Jimmy Flick
Age: 30
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Forza Combat Sports
From: Oklahoma
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -150
Jimmy Flick after twenty MMA fights & ten years as a pro is finally getting his shot in the UFC. Flick has had a great year so far. He is 3-0 and has picked up back to back solid wins. Flick won the LFA title in just 38 seconds and followed that up with another submission win on the contender series. Jimmy Flick is a submission artist with limited standup. Flick throws a lot of kicks on the feet. Flick will throw some hard, low kicks. Flick doesn’t use his hands much but likes to throw that lead hook. He will flurry in with some punches to get in on a takedown. Flick will throw some body & head kicks. Flick was able to catch Chris Gutierrez coming in with a front kick that dropped him. Flick is low volume but feints a lot & gets his opponent thinking with fake level changes. Flick has a bad habit of backing up to the cage & shelling up when he’s hurt. Fighters can close that distance, use clinch knees or a flurry and take him out usually. Flick has been finished by KO/TKO in four of his five losses. Flick has no knockouts in his career, emphasizing even more that his striking is purely to setup takedowns.
Jimmy Flick’s objective in every fight is to get the fight to the mat. Flick will use his striking only as a distraction to get in on the legs or in the clinch. Flick has a good single leg. Flick will explode into well timed double legs. He will use the single to drive opponents to the cage & then work from there. Flick can chain wrestle against the cage and has pretty good body locks. Flick’s wrestling isn’t super high level though. Flick can struggle to hit takedowns against fighters with good wrestling or takedown defense. When he does get on top, Flick is super aggressive and has a sick Jiu-Jitsu game. Flick is always looking to pass or attack the finish. He isn’t a lay & pray guy when he gets on top. In his last match, he showed off a lot of wrinkles in his ground game. Flick was attacking from everywhere, top, bottom, but it didn’t matter. Flick on top has great back takes. He will look to attack front chokes. He will attack the arms from side control or top/back mount. His arm triangle is top notch. When Flick gets put on his back, he will attack leg locks, and a plethora of other submissions. Flick has great sweeping ability. In his last fight, Flick was transitioning from sub to sub super fluidly. He had a nasty sequence at the end of the second where he went from a mounted armbar to a omaplata to a triangle and Smith was saved by the bell. Flick was eventually able to catch Smith in an arm triangle in round three and end the fight. Flick has thirteen submission victories. His cardio is top notch & he definitely will be pumped up to show he belongs here.
Cody Durden
Age: 29
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: ATT Atlanta
From: Georgia
UFC Record: 0-0-1
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: 1 Draw
Betting Odds: +130
Cody Durden performed very well all things considered in his UFC debut. Durden took a fight on short notice, up a weight class, with the super talented Chris Gutierrez & gutted out a draw. Now he is moving back down to 125 lbs, has more notice for the fight and wants to show the world what he can do. Durden is once again the slight underdog here as he takes on the vet Jimmy Flick. Durden is the superior striker and the better athlete. He has much better footwork, switches stances well, and is just way faster. Durden is aggressive and likes to pressure forward and get in the pocket. He throws heavy, low kicks. He has a nice jab to the body & head. Durden is good at jabbing his way inside for his straight-right hand. He is good at feinting the level changes and then coming over the top with a power overhand. He will close the distance with straights & attack the body with big hooks. Durden will throw some nice round & question mark kicks to the head. Durden has good eyes and head movement inside. He will use his ability to mix it up to his advantage. Durden will feint level changes to setup his strikes. He then will pull fighters into takedowns as well & keep them off balance. Durden did get beat up the last two rounds on the feet in his fight with Gutierrez. The leg kicks added up and he became too desperate for the takedowns and started to get countered hard. He showed toughness to survive to the final bell and earn the draw. Durden is going to be the clearly superior striker here and should try to exploit that. Durden has five career KO/TKO’s mostly on the ground.
Cody Durden is mainly a grappler. He has very good wrestling. He will shoot nice single and double legs. He is very good at exchanging a bit, keeping fighters guessing and then ducking under for the level change. He is strong in the clinch. He is explosive with his shots & going to be able to get takedowns at the UFC level. Durden on top is very aggressive looking to pass and throw ground & pound. In his last fight, Durden was able to get a 10-8 in round one by holding back control after a takedown for nearly the entire round. Durden has pretty good control, but his submission defense is very questionable. He is a back taker, and when he takes it he finishes the fight. He has great rear nakeds and ground & pound from the back mount. Durden leaves his neck out there to get guillotined. He can be swept and threatened with submissions when he’s on bottom. He does have good scrambling ability and can standup from bottom well. Durden has five submissions but isn’t great with the Jiu-Jitsu. Durden was submitted by rear naked choke in 2018 against a 12-13 fighter. He trains at ATT Atlanta which has good Jiu-Jitsu players like Roan Carneiro so that should be improving. His cardio could also be in question as he gassed his last fight.
This should be a grappling heavy fight. On the feet, I give the edge to Durden and he has the power and durability edge as well. Durden might be the better wrestler between the two, but I think Flick is on a different level in the BJJ department and I don’t see him accepting a striking battle. I think this fight hits the mat more than once and I’ll pick Flick to lock up a submission at some point in this fight.
This is probably going to be an important fight to target on DraftKings. FDGTD is lined at -260 and there could be a lot of grappling exchanges. Flick is $200 more than he was in this matchup a couple weeks ago and Durden is $200 less, so I expect Durden to be pretty popular since a lot of people wanted to play him the last time. Flick is still going to be my preferred play though because he should be the one wanting to grapple, and he can rack up a lot of advances with his style and he is live for a submission in any round. He does have a weak chin though so that is the main reason I like Durden here but if he doesn’t get a KO, I don’t see Durden scoring very well. I want this fight in more than half of my lineups, but I will look to get more exposure to the favorite here.
Winner – Jimmy Flick via 2nd round Submission
Tafon Nchukwi $9,400 vs Jamie Pickett $6,800
Tafon Nchukwi
Age: 26
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185(Debut)
Reach: 77”
Gym: Team Lloyd Irving
From: Cameroon
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-0
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -290
Tafon Nchukwi has been nothing short of impressive thus far in his career. He has had four fights and finished all four fights before the start of the third round. Nchukwi has three amateur fights as well which are all finish victories. He had a devastating head kick knockout on the contender series & also has a knockout victory over UFC fighter William Knight. Nchukwi will be making the drop to 185 lbs here for the first time. That’s something I think we need to monitor as he is a fairly big guy. Nchukwi has competed at HW as well. Nchukwi just doesn’t have a ton of experience. You can’t blame him for knocking dudes out, but he has only 19 minutes of cage time, which is barely more than one three round fight. Nchukwi is going to have to learn the ropes at the UFC level which is never easy. For instance, this is going to be the first southpaw that Nchukwi has ever faced. Nchukwi is a southpaw himself, and you just don’t want to get hit by this guy. Nchukwi has a nice jab to the head & body and a nice, lead left hook. He has a nice one-two. He has a nice jab, overhand left. He will throw really nice power uppercuts. Nchukwi has big power in his left cross. He will dig to the body with hooks & has good forward pressure. He only needs one punch to change the fight. Nchukwi has nasty round kicks to the body. In his last match, he landed a head kick that ended the fight. He is a bit of a plodder, but he is sneaky explosive. His defense isn’t the best, and he definitely needs to clean that up. He will walk into shots and got rocked a bit in his fight on the contender series.
Tafon Nchukwi is not a grappler. Nchukwi is physical and explosive, so he’s hard to take and hold down. Nchukwi showed nasty clinch work in his match with William Knight. He was able to frame & throw heavy knees to the body & head. He landed a nasty spinning elbow to elbow combination. He ultimately was able to land a trip followed by ground & pound & finished the fight. I feel the stoppage was a bit early, but Nchukwi was dominating the fight. At 185 lbs I think he is going to be a load to takedown or control in the clinch. Nchukwi’s cardio is impressive for someone his size.
Jamie Pickett
Age: 32
Height: 6’2
Weight: 185
Reach: 80”
Gym: Port City Sports Performance
From: North Carolina
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +245
Jamie Pickett will be making his UFC debut after an up & down journey. Pickett has done well on the regional scene but failed to win in his first two opportunities on the Dana White contender series. Fortunately for Pickett the UFC gave him a third opportunity and he cashed in. Pickett looked impressive & scored a vicious knockout. Pickett is the veteran here. He has fifteen pro fights & is already 32 years old. Jamie Pickett is a southpaw. He is very long with an 80” reach and is an athletic guy. Pickett is a plodder but explodes in with fast, powerful combos. Pickett has really nice, long straights. He exploded in with a nasty combination in his last fight that decimated Jhonoven Pati. He has some nice kicks; Heavy, low kicks, nice round kicks to the body & head. He will throw lead leg sidekicks. Pickett has pretty good head movement and uses his reach fairly well. He likes to switch stances. He will shoot the straights & jabs to the body also. Pickett holds his hand low though & relies on his reach and head movement. Fighters come over the top and touch him. He is a bit stiff & awkward on the feet in his movements at times and can overextend on his punches. He is heavy on his lead leg as well. Pickett is a very tough, durable fighter. Pickett has never been finished by strikes.
Jamie Pickett needs to use his grappling to win this match. Jamie Pickett has good wrestling. He has good timing on his level changes & even if he can’t get the takedown, he will control fighters against the fence. Pickett has decent chain wrestling against the cage. On top, Pickett is very aggressive. He has big ground & pound and looks to finish the fight. Pickett has nine knockouts, but a lot of them are from ground & pound. He isn’t a submission guy having none in his career. Pickett has pretty good takedown defense. When he got taken down against Charles Byrd, he didn’t look great off his back. Byrd was arm triangled pretty quickly after being taken down. Pickett was put on his back against Puna Soriano and dominated in the third round. Jhonoven Pati was able to take down Pickett as well. Pickett locked in a pretty deep choke and was able to scramble back up to his feet.
Nchukwi is a beast. You can see just looking at him that he has a ton of power and all his wins are knockouts in the first 2 rounds. He was fighting at Heavyweight and now he is making the drop to 185 lbs. Pickett is pretty big and powerful himself and he looks to be the faster guy who is lighter on his feet. I do think Nchukwi by KO is the most likely outcome of this fight, but I think Pickett is live here and can get a KO of his own or win a decision. This is dog or pass for me on the ML, but Nchukwi by TKO would be the best way to bet the favorite here.
Vegas thinks this fight ends ITD 75% of the time. That means we need to target this fight in GPPs. Both guys have big power and can get 100+ with a 1st round KO. That is more likely with Tafon and he is my preferred play here. I do like some Pickett in GPPs too though as the cheapest guy on the card and I think Tafon will be one of the highest owned guys while Pickett gets overlooked. I probably want to be overweight on both guys here, but it won’t take much to be overweight on Pickett and I probably get more leverage on him compared to the field than I do on Tafon who could be close to 50% owned. I can see me having about 50% Tafon and 25% Pickett in my GPPs. Tafon would be the only one I would consider in cash games though.
Winner – Tafon Nchukwi via 1st round (T)KO
Drako Rodriguez $9,100 vs Aiemann Zahabi $7,100
Drako Rodriguez
Age: 24
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 69.5”
Gym: One Combat Academy
From: Iowa
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -190
Drako Rodriguez made a lot of people some money cashing as an underdog on the contender series in September. Rodriguez is a blue-chip prospect who went 13-0 as an amateur, and is now 7-1 as a pro. At 24 years old the skills he showcases are pretty high level. Rodriguez hasn’t really defeated many great fighters, but he did go five rounds before getting finished late against Tony Gravely. Drako is a pro boxer also & you can see it in the way he fights. He has nasty counter punches & big one punch power. He has pretty good lateral footwork and walks fighters into lead hooks & straight-right hands. His hands come fast and straight. He has good head movement & a nice high guard. In the pocket, he is very dangerous in exchanges. He has tight, short hooks & close-range power. When he hurts his opponent, he goes for the kill & closes the show. I haven’t seen him throw many kicks, but his hands and counters are real nice. He has three career knockouts and has been finished by strikes one time.
Drako Rodriguez is a good grappler. He doesn’t have the best wrestling, but he is an opportunistic submission artist in scrambles. Rodriguez has a nice guillotine and is active off his back throwing up armbars. He got a nasty triangle choke that put Mana Martinez to sleep in his last fight. Martinez has good submission defense. I have seen him put in some deep submissions, but he survived, and has never been submitted in his career. He was able to survive five rounds with Tony Gravely on the mat without getting submitted. Rodriguez has another three finishes via submission in his career. His last fight was the first decision victory of his career.
Aiemann Zahabi
Age: 33
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Tristar Gym
From: Canada
UFC Record: 0-2
Last Fought: 1 Year 7 Months
Last Five: 3-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +165
Aiemann Zahabi’s UFC run has not gone as planned for Aiemann. Zahabi not only is 1-2 in the promotion, but he has also been super inactive. Zahabi won his UFC debut back in February of 2017 but has not won a fight since then. Zahabi was knocked out brutally by Ricardo Ramos after that, and then dropped a decision to Vince Morales. It has been over a year and half since he last fought. I am not sure if he had an injury but taking these breaks and being 33 years old isn’t good for his career. Zahabi is a switch stance striker. He is a tough fighter with good forward pressure. Zahabi works well off his jab. He will double jab his way into range for his straights, hooks, or uppercuts. Zahabi will use the lead hook as well. Zahabi will throw the jab or straight & then follow with a round kick to the body or head. Zahabi has decent front & round kicks to the body. Zahabi will plod forward but can struggle to get inside. He isn’t the fastest fighter. Due to that he can have big moments of inactivity during the fights, because he can’t get inside and doesn’t want to open up in fear of getting countered. Zahabi did get countered in his fight with Ramos with a brutal spinning elbow that knocked out Zahabi. Zahabi has four KO/TKO’s in his career. All six of Zahabi’s finishes are in round one.
Aiemann Zahabi is a strong grappler. His wrestling and physicality isn’t the best, but he has very good Jiu-Jitsu and can scramble. Zahabi will try to use his punches to close the distance & get in the clinch. In the clinch, Zahabi doesn’t have great control. When Zahabi gets on top, he hasn’t been able to control fighters either. He got a takedown in the second against Vince Morales, but couldn’t keep top position long. From there Zahabi will work for body locks or trips against the cage. Zahabi has a good bottom game. He will attack leg locks and has a great butterfly guard. Zahabi was able to scramble to the top position against Ramos and reversed one of his takedown attempts. Zahabi is very hard to control on the mat. Prior to joining the UFC, he had six first round finishes, but he hasn’t had a finish since joining the UFC.
Zahabi is 0-2 in the UFC and fighting for his job here against Rodriguez who is making his UFC debut. Zahabi has decent technical striking, and his grappling is solid too. He just doesn’t strike enough, and he isn’t a wrestler. His biggest issue is that he isn’t a high-pace fighter and Rodriguez looks to be the guy who will be fighting at a higher pace, throwing harder shots, and looking to wrestle. I think Zahabi is going to need a finish in this one to get his hand raised but I don’t see it happening and I think he gets outworked over 15-minutes.
Drako is going to be my preferred play here because I think he is more likely to win by TKO or submission, and I think he is the higher volume guy as well who would be landing more strikes and takedowns. It will be hard to afford him at his price considering his ITD line is +310, but I do want exposure to him, and I think he is in play in all formats. Zahabi is talented and he could get a finish of his own, so I won’t X him out of my player pool. I don’t see him scoring well if he wins a decision though and I don’t want to invest much in that finish, so I probably don’t end up with much exposure to him and he will be a fade with 10 lineups or less.
Winner – Drako Rodriguez via Unanimous Decision
Antonio Arroyo $8,900 vs Deron Winn $7,300
Antonio Arroyo
Age: 31
Height: 6’3
Weight: 185
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: Marajo Brothers Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-1
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -165
Antonio Arroyo will be looking for his first UFC win as he takes on Deron Winn. Arroyo dropped a decision in his debut to Andre Muniz, snapping a five-fight winning streak. Arroyo likes to get his work done early. He has finished eight of his nine wins, seven in the first round. Arroyo on the feet is a nasty kicker. He has a nasty, right kick to the body & head. Arroyo sets up his high kicks with nasty, inside low kicks & round kicks to the body. He throws super-fast, powerful kicks. He is an athlete & will mix in spins & jumping kicks. Arroyo will blitz forward with straights followed by hooks. He likes to try to catch opponents with pull counters. In the pocket, he will flurry looking to overwhelm fighters. Arroyo throws some wild, slapping punches at times that are sloppy. He also doesn’t have the best boxing defense. Arroyo ate a lot of shots in his last fight against a fighter who isn’t a great striker in Andre Muniz. Arroyo starts fights with very fast movement. He’s light on his feet & bounces in & out. As the fights progress Arroyo does slow down & become more labored & hittable. He still has yet to be finished by strikes. Arroyo definitely has power with four KO/TKO’s.
Antonio Arroyo will mix it up in fights. He uses his takedowns more to break up the rhythm of fights & take rests. Arroyo is an athletic fighter with solid level changes. He will hit well timed doubles. Arroyo also will work in some creative takedowns like karate foot sweeps. When Arroyo gets on top, he just is a lay & pray guy. He will bury his head in his opponent’s chest & throw short shots while maintaining position & catching his breath. Arroyo isn’t super dangerous with submissions, but he does have a pretty good arm triangle. Arroyo was able to drop Stephen Regman with a high kick, trap a wrist, throw heavy ground & pound & then lock in that head & arm choke. Regman is a former 155er who fights at 170, so Arroyo was a much bigger fighter. Arroyo showed some poor grappling defense & fight IQ in his last fight. He got taken down a couple times pretty easily by Andre Muniz & threatened with multiple submissions. He did prove tough to get out of there & defended all the submissions but lost a decision. Arroyo also gassed hard in the fight. Arroyo will work to his feet early. He has a good butterfly guard, but accepted position in round three against Muniz. There were some things I didn’t like with Arroyo at the end of the Muniz fight. He spent about 1:30 seconds just kicking the legs and throwing weak punches at Muniz, while Muniz tried to get him to come into the guard instead of just telling him to stand up. When the referee finally stood them up with about 15 seconds to go in a very close fight Arroyo didn’t even throw one shot.
Deron Winn
Age: 31
Height: 5’6
Weight: 185
Reach: 70”
Gym: AKA
From: California
UFC Record: 1-2
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +145
Deron Winn’s UFC career hasn’t gone quite as planned. Winn entered the UFC with a lot of hype. Winn is an AKA product. He has amazing wrestling credentials and is the protégée of Daniel Cormier. Winn won his UFC debut, but has dropped back to back fights since then. At 5’6 a lot of people see him as being in the wrong weight class. Now this fight is at 195 lbs. On the feet, Winn just plods forward. He will try to use head movement to slip shots & return. Winn has a nice one-two. Winn will throw a lot of left hook, overhand right combinations. Winn has a big overhand right. Winn will rip the body & then go back up to the head. Winn likes to throw the body & high kick. Winn really can struggle to get on the inside against these taller fighters. Even against a slow plodder in Gerald Meerschaert, Meerschaert was able to box Winn up & beat his body up with kicks. Winn eventually got rocked in the third round, and then submitted.
Deron Winn is one of the better, pure wrestlers in MMA. He had an excellent college career and has some big, international wrestling wins also. In the UFC, Winn has fought two black belts in Jiu-Jitsu, and I feel he didn’t want to take them down in fear of getting submitted. In his one fight against a non-grappler in Darren Stewart, Winn had six takedowns. Winn has good level changes. He will use his level changes to push fighters against the fence. From there Winn has good singles, good body locks, and lifts. On top, Winn isn’t very good. Winn doesn’t really work to pass the guard. He just sticks inside the guard, and then works short ground & pound. His submission defense is questionable. Winn has four first round finishes early in his career against low level guys. Most of those finishes are ground & pound. Winn’s cardio is a question mark as well. I would say he has better cardio than Arroyo, but he doesn’t have great cardio either.
Give me Arroyo in this fight. He is the better and more dangerous striker, and he has a 9” height advantage against Winn so he should look like he is a weight class heavier. Winn is a short and thick wrestler though and he is going to need to rack up takedowns in this fight to be able to win rounds. I don’t see him finishing Arroyo and I think Arroyo is the better grappler of the two as well. Winn could be the guy pressing forward with higher output on the feet and mixing in takedowns to steal rounds. I don’t see that being enough for him though and I will take Arroyo to get a knockout.
Arroyo is my preferred play on DK this week because I like his chances at a KO here. He is the better striker with a lot more power and he has a submission game as well if he is taken to the mat. Winn is in play as well because he can put up a high pace on the feet and he is the wrestler here, so maybe he can rack up takedowns. I do like Winn for GPPs as an underdog, but Arroyo is going to be the guy I look to go overweight on here and I don’t think it will be hard to do that at his price. I doubt he even gets to 20% ownership this week unless we lose more fights, and he has a +145 ITD line which indicates he finishes more than 40% of the time. I probably look to get closer to 30% or more Arroyo in my GPP lineups this week and I will get some Winn exposure as well. Not a fan of this fight for cash games though so I will stick with GPP only for my lineups.
Winner – Antonio Arroyo via 2nd round (T)KO
Karl Roberson $9,300 vs Dalcha Lungiambula $6,900
Karl Roberson
Age: 30
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: Killer B Combat Sports
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 4-3
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -255
Karl Roberson is looking to recover after his setback in his grudge match against Marvin Vettori. Roberson needs to rectify his issues on the scales as well. He missed weight both times he was scheduled to face Vettori. Roberson had won back-to-back fights previous to that and has fought and beaten some solid competitors throughout his UFC career. Roberson is the better striker in this matchup. He cuts the cage off very well, has very fast hands and straight shots down the barrel. He has a sick jab, very nice, straight punch counters and heavy low kicks. He is very fast & has a nice straight-left hand. He has a nasty counter right hook. His straight-left hand keeps opponents at bay & and he’s able to potshot fighters from the outside. He has a great chin, walks opponents down, and picks his shots well. He doesn’t open up much or give opponents big openings to land shots. In his last win, Roberson smashed the lead leg of his opponent, and then finished him in round three. Roberson has very heavy round kicks to the body and head also. Roberson has 2 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished with strikes.
Karl Roberson is going to need to stay off his back in this matchup. Roberson is improving his grappling immensely. He uses well timed double legs & shows a lot of strength & explosion getting easy slams right into side control. On top, he has good ground & pound elbows and transitions to mount landing shots there as well. He has good top control. He has shown to be very dangerous in the clinch. He has wicked knees to the body & head and nasty elbows. He finished Ryan Spann in less than a minute with Travis Browne elbows while defending the takedown. Against Glover Teixeira, he hurt him with the same elbows very badly, but couldn’t finish Glover. He was also able to take the back & submit Darren Stewart, so he has shown some ability on the ground. He still needs work off his back. He has been on his back three times in the UFC, twice he was finished via arm triangle. Both of those matches were against black belts. In his last match with Wellington Turman, he showed very poor IQ. He grappled with Turman, put himself in bad positions & made the fight much closer than it needed to be. In this fight he won’t have to worry about many takedowns in my opinion. Roberson has 3 submissions & been submitted three times.
Dalcha Lungiambula
Age: 35
Height: 5’8
Weight: 185
Reach: 76”
Gym: UFC PI
From: South Africa
UFC Record: 1-1
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +215
Dalcha Champion had his six-fight win streak snapped in his last match. He was knocked out brutally by Magomed Ankalaev. Ankalaev is a very good fighter so that isn’t the worst loss. Dalcha will also now be making the drop down to 185 lbs. That is something we have to monitor because he is 35 years old & has never cut down to this weight class. Dalcha is only 5’8 so he is much better suited frame wise for MW. Champion has a weird frame though. He has abnormally long arms with a 76” reach. Dalcha is a big, scary guy with one punch knockout power. He is extremely explosive & just an overall powerhouse. Dalcha is more of a counter puncher, but his blitz attacks are extremely dangerous. He has a solid jab to the body & head. He will throw a jab, left hook & jab, uppercut combination. He has a devastating overhand right. He is extremely fast & closes the distance in the blink of an eye. He likes to circle & wait for his opponents to throw & time shots. He has a nasty counter left hook & right uppercut. He will throw a right uppercut, left hook combo. He doesn’t throw a lot of straight shots. He is very wide with everything besides his jabs, which makes him vulnerable in the pocket. Fighters with faster, tighter punches can tag him as he winds up. Magomed Ankalaev put a striking clinic on Dalcha. He kept him at range, kicked him, landed sharp counters and eventually KO’d him with a front kick to the face. It’s still always dangerous to be brawling with Dalcha. Even if fighters have him hurt, he will plant his feet & wing, and can knock anyone out with one punch. Champion has 4 KO/TKO’s and has been finished by strikes just once.
Dalcha looks like a well-rounded fighter & strong wrestler. His defensive wresting & game off his back looks a bit questionable, but his offensive wresting is solid. He is extremely explosive & will get big, slam takedowns. He will shoot decent double legs. He is good at catching kicks & taking opponents down. He has nice clinch trips & throws also. His wrestling isn’t elite & fighters can stuff his takedowns. He has heavy hips & is good at reversing takedowns & getting top position. He isn’t super dangerous on top. He will throw some small ground & pound from guard. If he can get to a dominant position then he can close the show on the ground, but he’s not a big passer. He prefers to just stay in the guard & control opponents from there. Fighters are able to stand up from under him also & he doesn’t have the greatest top control. In his last win, he was able to control on top for large periods of the fight. He was controlling mostly from inside his opponent’s guard and landing nice elbows & punches. He can get taken down by body locks & well-timed shots against the cage. Off his back, he doesn’t look very good. He doesn’t have good get-ups. In his one career loss he was submitted via rear naked choke. Magomed Ankalaev was able to control him for a large portion of the second round. Dalcha has 2 career submissions.
Aside from power, I give Roberson the edge everywhere in this fight. He is the better overall striker with more tools in his toolbox, and he has the grappling edge as well. Lungiambula does have the power to put anybody’s lights out so I give him a punchers’ chance here, but I don’t see him winning any way other than KO.
I like both sides of this fight with the -225 FDGTD line. Roberson is my preferred play because he can win by TKO, submission, or decision here. I think Lungiambula is more of a KO or bust shot at the optimal, but he is very live for that KO. He could score 100+ as the 2nd cheapest guy on the card so we do need to target him if MMEing. I probably end up with this fight in around half of my lineups and I can see that being about 30% Roberson and 20% Dalcha. I wouldn’t want to trust either side for cash games.
Winner – Karl Roberson via 2nd round (T)KO
Sijara Eubanks $8,800 vs Pannie Kianzad $7,400
Sijara Eubanks
Age: 35
Height: 5’4
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Nick Catone MMA
From: Maryland
UFC Record: 4-3
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -155
Sijara Eubanks will be getting in a third fight in three months to close out the year. At 35 years old she is trying to get the most out of the rest of her career. Eubanks has gone 2-1 so far in 2020 but is coming off a loss to Ketlen Vieira. Prior to that she had a good upset win against Julia Avila. Eubanks is 2-3 since moving to the BW division. Eubanks has nice leg kicks & good one-twos. She will close the distance with hook & uppercut combinations. She likes to attack the body to close the distance into the combos. She has pretty decent head movement in the pocket & will throw long combinations. Eubanks also will throw dangerous head kicks. Eubanks is durable & has never been finished. Eubanks throws a lot of volume in the first round, but as the fight goes on she slows down and throws one at a time. Her movement becomes much more labored & she becomes more hittable. Eubanks has 3 KO/TKO’s.
Sijara Eubanks is a Jiu-Jitsu black & a good grappler. She has a good double leg and good timing on her entries. She does a good job of chain wrestling and will use the double to drive her opponents against the cage and then go for a single or change levels and go up top for a body lock. Her single leg from the outside is her most effective takedown. She can shoot from too far out at times though because she is uncomfortable with the striking. She is very heavy on top and throws hard, heavy elbows. When she takes opponents down, she does a good job of staying on top & winning the round. Eubanks has poor cardio, and really slows down in round three. This has cost her a couple of fights. Eubanks only has one submission herself and isn’t a big submission threat.
Pannie Kianzad
Age: 29
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 66”
Gym: Arte Suave
From: Iran
UFC Record: 2-2
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +135
Pannie Kianzad has looked pretty impressive since returning to the UFC in 2019. Kianzad has won back to back fights after dropping a fight to Julia Avila. She earned two pretty solid wins as well over Bethe Correia, and Jessica-Rose Clark. Kinziad is a pretty skillful boxer. She is loose and has very good hand speed. She will throw nice, sharp jabs. Everything works off the jab with Kianzad. She is very good with the one-two or double jab, cross. She will sneak the right hand in behind the jabs & jar her opponents. She has a very nice, tight left hook. She was able to counter & stun Julia Avila with that punch. Kianzad was snapping Clark’s head back with her jabs, hooks & straights and hurting her. Kianzad isn’t a fighter who moves much. She is better when she goes forward, but she likes to more sit in front, bounce and stay in the pocket. She has faith in her boxing combinations. She was getting hit with a lot of right hands vs Rose Clark. Kianzad has some heavy kicks. She has nice low kicks, and good front & round kicks to the body. Pannie Kianzad is very durable. She took some bombs from Julia Avila, huge shots in the clinch, and Avila is a power hitter. When Kianzad gets hit, she wants to get it back immediately & is very tough. Kianzad has pop but not big power, with four knockouts in her career. She has been finished by strikes just one time.
Pannie Kinziad is a competent grappler. She uses her combinations to crash into the clinch. She will dig strong, double underhooks & has nice knees & short punches. Kinziad showed good strength and technique being able to reverse and compete with one of the strongest girls in the division in Julia Avila. She was landing hard shots off the break. Kinziad has solid body lock takedowns. Her top game is not very dangerous. She doesn’t have the greatest top control & has zero career submissions. Kinziad allows herself to get backed up towards the cage much too easily. She has decent takedown defense, but not great. When she’s put on her back, she is active in her guard with submissions. She has decent armbars and leg locks she uses to sweep. If fighters can pass the legs & move to side control, they have success. She gives her back to try to stand up & lost via rear naked choke recently against Macy Chiasson. Avila was able to take Kianzad’s back and dominate her for the entirety of the third round. Kianzad does scramble well and has good submission defense. She seems to love scrambling & being on the mat. She will be smiling when opponents have armbars locked in on her & is not part of the quick tap club. She is going to be very tough to submit, and I feel has better grappling the Correia. Pannie’s Achilles heel throughout her career has been strong clinch fighters or wrestlers.
This is a very close fight on the feet, and I would expect it to be very back and forth. I think this is 50/50 on the feet and I really don’t see either side being able to dominate the striking. I do give Eubanks the edge on the mat though so I do agree with her being the favorite here and I will side with her as well because that is the only real edge in this fight that I see. This fight might not even hit the mat, but I see the striking being so close that one takedown and some GNP could steal a round for Eubanks.
This isn’t a fight I will be targeting much of. Eubanks is my preferred GPP play because she has the higher ceiling, and she should be low owned. She is the one that would be looking to grapple, and this could be a higher paced striking fight while it is on the feet as well. I don’t love her price tag here, but it will keep her ownership down and that is what puts her in play for me. I don’t see her getting a finish though, so I prefer Kianzad in cash games and I think she has a decent floor as well as a decent shot of winning the fight. I don’t see her scoring much more than 10x though so not a GPP play I love, but I won’t X her out of my player pool. If I was just making 3 or less lineups this week, I would just fade this fight and hope for a close decision win for Sijara.
Winner – Sijara Eubanks via Split Decision
Anthony Pettis $9,200 vs Alex Morono $7,000
Anthony Pettis
Age: 35
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Roufusport MMA
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 10-9
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -230
Anthony Pettis will be looking to win two fights in a row for the first time since 2014. Obviously, Pettis is on the back nine, now fighting at WW, and isn’t the same guy. Pettis is taking a significant step down from the fighters he usually faces though. He is going from fighting the winningest fighter in UFC history, even if he is long in the tooth in Donald Cerrone to fighting Alex Morono. Alex Morono is a double-digit UFC fight veteran as well, but it’s the first time Morono is getting a big-name opponent. If Pettis is still even remotely his old self, he should get the victory here, but that is the question. He has been very brittle of late, and he’s a hard guy to trust. Pettis is still one of the premier range strikers in the UFC. He has extremely fast kicks and his left body kick is one of the nastiest body kicks in MMA history. He has really nice leg kicks which he used to chop down Wonderboy. He is fast and likes to switch stances and use the opposite stance of his opponent, so he can land those body kicks. He uses a lot of feints and fakes and doesn’t really throw a lot of volume but keeps fighters guessing and off balance and will land big, hard shots. He has a nice check left hook and good straight-right hand. He has gotten better at using lateral movement and running opponents into his punches. He will need to have that lateral movement on point for this fight. He will open up and start to throw some crazy kicks at times such as jumping, spinning heel kicks, jumping roundhouse kicks, kicks off the cage etc. When fighters give him space and let him strike he is elite. When fighters pressure him and jam his kicks and get him moving backwards, he is much less effective. Pettis has to stay technical here, move, angle, chop the legs, body & then go up top. Pettis has 11 KO/TKO’s. His durability used to be excellent, but it seems to be fading a bit. He wasn’t finished in his first 24 fights, but in his last 6 he’s been finished 3 times. He has only been TKO’d in action one time & didn’t answer the bell for round 3 against Ferguson.
Anthony Pettis is a very underrated Jiu-Jitsu player. He isn’t the best or most active wrestler & gets most of his dubs off his backs. Pettis struggles with letting guys push him against the cage and getting in on his legs. His wrestling is very suspect, and he struggles to stop himself from being held against the cage and being taken down with chain wrestling. When he is taken down, he doesn’t get-up very well, but his Jiu-Jitsu from his guard is straight nasty. He does a great job of controlling the wrist and then attacking with triangles. He throws his legs up extremely fast, and he will also attack with a slick guillotine and armbar as well. He has good kimuras. He has very good sweeps himself and will get top position but doesn’t have an amazing top game, a lot of the times he will just get back up. In his last match, Pettis got out grappled thoroughly by Carlos Diego Ferreira. This fight he likely will be at a disadvantage if it hits the mat as well. He got his back taken & was submitted vs Ferreira. Pettis has 7 submissions & been submitted now twice.
Alex Morono
Age: 30
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 7-3-1
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +190
Alex Morono has done well since moving over to Fortis MMA. He has gone 4-1, and his only loss was a quick, flash knockout where he never really got to get started. Morono has been fighting more lower level opponents, but still has a stellar UFC record of 7-3-1. Morono is coming back very quickly after a war with Rhys McKee on November 14th. Morono definitely will be pumped up as this is a massive opportunity for him. Morono is a good striker. He has decent lateral movement & is light on his feet. He has a decent jab & left hook. He will throw a right hook lead. He likes to throw a jab, overhand right combination. Morono will throw looping overhand rights & jab, overhand rights. He has a solid head kick and a good spinning heel kick. He dropped Max Griffin with a nasty high kick in his last match. He will throw nice front kicks to the body. He can get lazy throwing kicks sometimes and leave his chin in the air. He stands up very tall and is there to be leg kicked and taken down. He doesn’t throw in combination a lot, especially with his hands. He will try to dart in with one overhand right or throw a jab or spinning backfist, but he doesn’t put long combos together. His footwork and ability to cut guys off and keep a pace and high volume of strikes on him is probably his greatest strength. He wears guys down and can start to take over late. He hasn’t shown major power over his career & has 4 KO/TKO’s. He has a decent chin but has been KO/TKO’d twice in his career.
Alex Morono is a Jiu-Jitsu black belt & showed off some of his skills in his last match. Morono was taken down with a double leg but was able to lock in a guillotine, use it to reverse to mount & finish on top. Morono also locked in a nice guillotine vs Josh Burkman. Morono is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu, but he is not much of an offensive grappler. He did jump on a guillotine against Josh Burkman, but that was an old, weathered Burkman. Morono is not a wrestler & will rarely go for offensive takedowns. He did finally hit a couple takedowns in his last fight, which were the first of his UFC career. He didn’t really do much on top but was able to mix it up and help him win the decision. His takedown defense is not good at all and he can be taken down very easily. He will wing shots wildly & opponents can easily duck under & take him down. He was taken down over & over by Jordan Mein and didn’t show much off his back. In his match with Zack Ottow, he did hit a nice a guillotine, moved into mount & finished the fight. He has good guard retention & is hard to pass but is just not that dangerous. He will try to throw up armbars & triangles, but he isn’t fast with them. He does have a couple over his career. He has 6 career submissions.
Pettis is the more talented fighter all-around in this matchup. He is the more technical striker, and he has more KO power. He is probably the better grappler as well, but they are both solid grapplers. Pettis is on the downside of his career though and Morono looks like he is in his prime. I think Pettis probably looks better early in this fight but if Morono has the volume like he did in his last fight where he landed 176 significant strikes, I don’t think Pettis can keep up with that pace and Morono wins the latter half of this fight. At these odds, I have to lean with the underdog, and I think he can win rounds 2 and 3 to get his hand raised.
Pettis might get priced out of my lineups at $9.2k. He is going to need a finish to get there at that price and I don’t want to invest much in that. He can get a KO or sub, so I am not against him if you are picking him to finish. He just won’t get there if this fight goes the distance, and Morono can at $7k. Morono broke the slate in his last fight scoring 139 DK points and he has the volume to break the slate again, even in a decision. He is going to be an underdog I look to target in all formats, but I don’t see him having that 140-point ceiling, so he isn’t a core play. I do think he can get to 100 though so I want to be overweight, and if he doesn’t get finished, he is going to have a nice floor as well.
Winner – Alex Morono via Split Decision
Greg Hardy $8,500 vs Marcin Tybura $7,700
Greg Hardy
Age: 32
Height: 6’5
Weight: 265
Reach: 80.5”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Florida
UFC Record: 4-2-1
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -125
Greg Hardy is looking to take a big step forward in his career if he can get past Marcin Tybura. Hardy has been fairly impressive so far, but he hasn’t beaten any great competition in the UFC. Beating Tybura means something and would signify Hardy can compete with the top ten guys. Greg Hardy has a solid jab. He showed that off in his last fight. He landed a big, power jab that dropped Maurice Greene. Hardy has very fast hand speed. He had a nasty jab & left hook, and blazing one-two. He will throw some brutal low kicks & nasty uppercuts. Hardy’s straight-right hand vs Sosoli was a piston. He has nasty round kicks to the body. He was mixing in high kicks, superman punches, and I think he’s a very dangerous striker. In his match with Volkov, he made it competitive. He landed some decent leaping left hooks. He has one punch power and is extremely fast. Hardy will still lean back with his chin high at times, but he is good at pull countering. His defense can look a little suspect at times. He has to respect the speed and power of Tybura. He has eaten some big shots and kept coming in the past and looks as if he has a strong chin. He has 5 KO/TKO’s.
Greg Hardy has not faced very many grapplers in his UFC career. Early on he fought guys like Allen Crowder, who actually saw success with his grappling, Juan Adams, and Dmitry Smoliakov who did not. Allen Crowder was able to catch a knee in the clinch & take him down. Hardy looked pretty green off his back and was controlled for a large portion of the round. He looked tired in round two, and then landed an illegal knee after defending a takedown that cost him the fight. Hardy did show good takedown defense against Juan Adams, sprawling hard on the single leg & then finishing him with ground & pound. He was able to drop Maurice Greene and land some ground & pound shots in both round one and two. In the second round he was able to finish Greene with shots on bottom after dropping Greene. Hardy is obviously not going to look for submissions or takedowns against a black belt here. Hardy has always had questionable cardio as well.
Marcin Tybura
Age: 35
Height: 6’3
Weight: 263
Reach: 78”
Gym: Ankos MMA
From: Poland
UFC Record: 7-5
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +105
Marcin Tybura has regained his footing in the UFC, and if he can take out Hardy he will likely get a step up in competition. Tybura has won three fights in a row and is on the best run of his UFC career. Tybura is coming off a decision win over Ben Rothwell in October and is already 3-0 this year. Tybura is light on his feet uses a lot of straight punches, straight front kicks to the body and then will throw nice, round head kicks. He will switch stances & try to give different looks. He has a decent jab, and good counter right hook. He will throw almost a leaping straight-left. He will throw a nice uppercut, left hook combo. His head movement isn’t bad, but he tends to hold his hand low. He can get hit clean when he does that and squares up making him even more hittable. Tybura doesn’t control the center well & fighters that pressure him can push him back. He tends to back straight up & doesn’t have good footwork. He will just cover up & move in a straight line making him an easy target to hit. In this fight, Tybura is going to need to use kicks, lateral movement & show off his superior foot speed. He should mainly look to hit blast doubles on Hardy though. He has been KO/TKO’d three times in his career including his last loss against Sakai. He has 7 KO/TKO’s himself.
Tybura is a good grappler. He has strong body lock takedowns and good double legs. He will look to control opponents against the cage as well, but he doesn’t do much from there, other than take a break. He did hold Maxim Grishin against the cage for a long period of time in their fight. He can be reversed and just have his back stuck against the cage as well. He does have very quick takedown shots, much faster than most heavyweights. He will front a jab or straight & duck under into blast doubles. In his fight with Spivak, he got several well-timed doubles. He was able to land some nice, short elbows & hammerfists & controlled position inside Spivak’s guard. Tybura has shown good passing skills in the past. He does a great job of getting the mount and taking the back. He doesn’t do a ton of damage from those positions and if I was his coach I’d drill becoming more dangerous in those situations. If he could learn to do damage before looking to sink in subs I think he could get way more finishes. He has good cardio and can push all 3 or 5 rounds as shown vs Werdum & Arlovski. Tybura has 6 submissions, but none in the UFC. Marcin Tybura has the highest takedown defense in UFC HW history. Tybura has a good bottom game if his opponent does manage to take him down. If you watch his fight with Derrick Lewis, he was able to protect himself from the vicious ground & pound even after being dropped in the first round. Tybura has good half guard sweeps. Tybura will throw up submissions from his guard to submit or sweep also.
This is a big step up for Hardy and if he can win this then he is on his way to the top 10 in Heavyweight. He is the more athletic, powerful, durable, and faster fighter of the two. Tybura is the more experienced and well-rounded fighter though and if his chin holds up, I like him to get the win here. I do think he can keep this fight close on the feet, if not even win the striking battles. However, if I was his coach, I would have him looking for takedowns because if he can land one each round, I think he can keep Hardy on his back long enough to win the rounds. He could also get a submission or GNP stoppage if he does have more of a grappling-heavy game plan.
I could see this fight being over owned because they are Heavyweights. Especially on the Hardy side because people like his power and Tybura has a questionable chin. Hardy will need the KO to make that optimal lineup, but his KO prop is +135 so I do think we need to include him in GPPs. I will look to go underweight though and hope Tybura holds up. If he does, I think he even wins this fight and he is the guy I would expect to be looking for takedowns, so I do like Tybura and might go overweight on him. He could get a KO as well, but I would be wanting him to take this fight to the mat if I was his coach. I might have this fight in less than half of my lineups but Tybura the guy I will have more exposure to, and I like him in SE and 3-entry max contests as well.
Winner – Marcin Tybura via Unanimous Decision
Talia Santos $8,200 vs Gillian Robertson $8,000
Taila Santos
Age: 27
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Astra Fight Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-1
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -105
Taila Santos is a very skilled fighter. She is a forward pressure fighter. Santos likes to control the distance behind the jab & hard low kicks. Santos throws nasty jab to low kick combinations. Santos will throw some really nice, fast jab, cross or hook, cross combinations. She has no issue just touching opponents, keeping them at bay and just piecing them up. Santos attacks the body very well with front & round kicks. Santos has a good high kick. Santos likes to counter with jabs, crosses & check hooks as she moves backward. She has very tight, sharp counters. Santos will pull back with her chin high at times. She’s usually good at sliding just out of range so it doesn’t matter, but if fighters come forward with more than one they might be able to land.
Taila Santos showed off her grappling game better in her last fight. She had a huge strength advantage over molly McCann and it showed. Whenever McCann got in a good position, Santos was able to easily reverse. When Santos got in a good position, she either controlled in the clinch or got an impactful takedown. Santos can be controlled in the clinch if fighters can back her to the fence. She spent a large majority of her fight there against Mara Romero Borella. She doesn’t have a sense of urgency sometimes to get her back off the cage. Santos will get in the Thai plum & let go with elbows & knees. Taila Santos can wrestle herself. When fighters pressure her, she is good at ducking under & hitting takedowns. Santos has good body locks. She hit several nice trips against Molly McCann. In her fight on the contender series she was able to take the back from standing & controlled the rest of the round in that position. That’s her thing when she gets on top. Santos wants to take her opponent’s back & then take their neck. Santos was able to hit a nice body lock and transitioned to the back versus Mara Romero Borella as well. Santos hit multiple body locks in her last fight and used her wrestling and top control to seal the decision. Santos was able to dominate on top. She didn’t get a ton of damage off, but was able to keep McCann on her back, and moved into some dominant positions. Santos did a good job of attacking the neck when McCann went to stand up and keeping her on her bottom. Borella did lay kind of a blue print to defeat Santos though. Her opponents have to crash the space, not let her fight at range, and look to slow her down with grappling. Borella was able to use her strikes to back Santos up, and then back her down against the cage & take her down. Santos didn’t really show a lot off her back. She was lying flat & allowed Borella to get in some dominant positions. I don’t know if Robertson will be able to just submit Santos like these lower level girls, but I do think she can control her and put some damage on her with ground & pound.
Gillian Robertson
Age:
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Weight:
Reach:
Gym:
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Last Fought:
Last Five:
Current Streak:
Betting Odds: -115
Gillian Robertson will be looking to make it three in a row here. Robertson is getting Taila Santos here, a win over her would definitely be the best win of her career. Robertson has a 6-2 UFC record, but hasn’t fought a lot of great girls. Robertson is coming off the first decision win of her UFC career in October when she beat Poliana Botelho. She is a finisher overall and a dangerous opponent. She doesn’t have much striking to speak of. She just really likes to circle, fake & feint, and try to get in on a single leg. She will throw a one-two & a jab. Her hand speed is not good & she doesn’t sit down and put power on her shots yet. She doesn’t bring her feet with her when she punches & is always off balance. She will end some combos with high kicks. Robertson is super hittable & was taken out on the feet in her last match. She got overwhelmed against the fence and couldn’t get Barber off her. Gillian has been finished twice by strikes. Gillian has just one TKO herself.
Gillian Robertson is a hyper aggressive, Jiu-Jitsu brown belt. She is a specialist & always looking to time an entry & bring the fight to the mat. Robertson has two specific entries she uses most often. Robertson likes to use double legs to come up into body lock trips. She also has a nasty single leg. Robertson will also pull guard & uses an x-guard to sweep very well. She is good at attacking the legs. When Robertson gets on top she is vicious. Robertson is an excellent passer & always working to improve position. Robertson will move to half guard and dig her shoulder & head into her opponent’s chins. She keeps super heavy, top pressure, makes opponents very uncomfortable & creates passing opportunities. Robertson also uses ground & pound to improve position well also. She will throw some ground & pound to get opponents thinking & quickly pass to a better position. Robertson has an excellent mount where she will rain down punches & elbows. She is also very good when she can take the back. Robertson is very good with control on the back and has a nasty rear naked choke. Robertson also will attack armbars from the back mount. All of Robertson’s wins in the UFC have come on the mat. She has an armbar, three rear naked chokes & a TKO with elbows from the mount. Robertson did get caught slipping one time & was armbarred late in round one of a fight with Mayra Bueno Silva. Robertson can be a little sloppy with her passes at times also and get reversed or allow opponents to stand up. Overall, she does have one of the most dangerous top games in the 125 lb division. I haven’t seen an opponent shoot a takedown on her in the UFC, but the small periods I’ve seen her on her back she looks good at sweeping and creating scrambles. Robertson will be looking for the finish from everywhere.
Robertson is purely a grappler and all she will be looking to do here is grab ahold of Santos and drag her to the mat. That is going to be her game plan in every fight and if it works, she has a decent chance at finding a submission. Santos is going to look to stuff those takedowns and if she can she is going to dominate the striking and probably get a TKO. I think Santos’ edge on the feet is bigger than Robertson’s edge on the mat, so I am going to lean with her to get a finish on the feet.
This is going to be one of my heavier owned fights on the card for GPPs. No chance would I use either side in cash games, but I want this in more than half of my overall GPP lineups, and Santos is my preferred side of the two. I think Santos is live for a TKO here and that could come in any round, but if it is early, she can end up on that optimal lineup, and she might go overlooked. Robertson is the one I would expect to be more popular here because she is the underdog, and she has never scored less than 10x on this $8k price tag. 4 of her 6 wins have scored over 100 DK points and if she wins this fight it will be very grappling heavy. This is the mid-range fight of the week and either could score 100+. I would load up on this fight and whoever you like is who I would be heavier on. I can see me having about 35-40% Santos and 25-35% Robertson.
Winner – Talia Santos via 1st round (T)KO
Marlon Moraes $9,000 vs Rob Font $7,200
Marlon Moraes
Age: 32
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 66.5”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 5-3
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -150
Marlon Moraes is looking to right the wrongs of his last fight quickly. Moraes suffered a second setback in three fights after getting knocked out by Cory Sandhagen. The 32-year-old is in a do or die situation, to me. If Moraes can’t defeat Rob Font, he should probably start to think about his future in MMA. Ever since Moraes entered the UFC he has really only faced top 10 fighters. Moraes in 8 UFC fights has faced, Raphael Assuncao, John Dodson, Aljamain Sterling, Jimmie Rivera, Jose Aldo & Cory Sandhagen. That is a murderer’s row right there. Moraes is a Muay Thai champion & a powerful striker. He has brutal leg kicks & power in his hands. Moraes will throw the occasional jab, but he really likes to throw a left hook, straight-right hand combination. He has a nice right hook to the body, and good right uppercut, left hook combination. He does a good job of feinting his right hand and getting his opponents to back up & then smashing their lead leg with a low kick. He has very fast body kicks & will throw nice switch kicks to the body. He also has nasty head kicks & does a good job of throwing question mark kicks and hiding the kick behind the left hook. He will throw front kicks to the body & head. He does a good job of attacking the body to later open up shots for the head. Three of his last four victories he has dusted his opponent in the first round. He has 10 KO/TKO’s and been finished three times by strikes in his career.
Moraes very rarely will wrestle, but he did attempt a few takedowns in the first fight with Assuncao. He has shown a fairly good double leg & nice timing on it. He got Assuncao down one time but didn’t have any control time. In the second meeting with Assuncao, Moraes knocked him down & locked in a nasty, mounted guillotine that forced Assuncao to tap. Moraes has great takedown defense, and if fighters do get him down, he is super hard to hold down. Dodson had some success catching Moraes’ kicks & dumping him but couldn’t control him on the mat. Moraes is a black belt as well, and well versed on the mat. Moraes likes to drop opponents, take their backs and submit them. He has 4 rear naked chokes & five submissions overall. He also will attack with leg locks. He did jump on a guillotine against Dodson, and got the tap, but it was a second after the bell rang.
Rob Font
Age: 32
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: Lauzon MMA
From: Massachusetts
UFC Record: 7-3
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +130
Rob Font is getting yet another shot to come through against top flight competition. Rob Font is a guy who always tends to falter when getting a step up in competition. He is 7-3 in UFC, but his best win is probably Sergio Pettis who is a FLW. When Font got step ups and faced top 10 BWs such as Assuncao, Pedro Munhoz, and Jon Lineker, he lost. Font also hasn’t been very active lately. He is fighting for just the second time in two years. Font is still one of the better boxers in MMA. He has very good footwork, and a killer jab. He has great fakes & feints to start his combos. Font will throw nasty jabs, and one one-twos. Font will throw a jab followed by twos to the body. Font attacks the body early & often with straights and hooks. When Font gets confident, he will really start to turn up the forward pressure, and combinations to the body & head. Font does a good job of hand fighting & coming over the top with punches. Font has a really nasty counter uppercut as well. Font will mix in some round & front kicks to the body & head. He has a nice counter knee he will use. Font keeps a nice, tight high guard. He has solid overall boxing defense and is hard to hit clean to the head. Sometimes Font can make a mistake and load up and get clipped like he did vs Assuncao but when Font stays tight & technical his defense is very good. Font can get caught standing flat in front of opponents at times. Fighters can land one-twos or overhands on Font when he’s admiring his work or staying stagnant. Font is also heavy on his lead leg with his boxing style. Font has never been finished by strikes. He has been hurt in a few fights though. Jon Lineker hurt him multiple times, and Pedro Munhoz hurt him & then submitted him. Even Raphael Assuncao dropped Rob Font in the first round. Font tends to put himself in a defensive shell once he feels his opponents power. He will stay on the back foot, and not take many risks. Rob Font doesn’t have that one punch knockout power. He just is very sharp and tight, and sometimes he can catch guys super clean. Font has seven knockouts in his career. The fighters that Font has finished with strikes in UFC, all have questionable chins.
Rob Font has really improved as a grappler. Offensively he has good timing, and very good clinch takedowns. Font likes to attack the single leg, and then chain takedowns together until one sticks against the cage. On top, Font isn’t super dangerous. He will hit takedowns more to just change up the rhythm of the fight. When fighters pressure Font, he likes to try to time takedowns as well to make them less aggressive. Font was able to land some fairly decent ground & pound on Sergio Pettis by standing over him, controlling his legs, and coming down with punches. Font to me still has average takedown defense. He does have a good counter guillotine. When Font does get taken down, he is a good scrambler. He doesn’t lay flat on his back and makes it hard for opponents to get much damage off on him. He was able to stand up from under Ricky Simon pretty effectively in their fight. He was taken down six times though. Font only has 50% takedown defense in the UFC. Assuncao was able to take Font down early in round two & dominate him on top. He eventually was able to work back up to his feet midway throughout the round. In the third round Assuncao got him down in the second half of the round again and was able to hold Font down until the round ended. Assuncao was doing a great job of timing & ducking under for the double leg as Font threw his jab & exposed his hips. In this fight if anyone tries to grapple, I see it being Font. Font has four career submissions. In his one finish loss he was hurt, panic wrestled and got guillotined. Rob Font has excellent cardio and will have an advantage there.
This should be a fun striking match. Moraes is the more powerful striker of the two, and his leg kicks could be a big factor as well. Font is the taller and longer guy though and he is more of a volume puncher who should be throwing and landing more shots. He hits heavy as well and could get a KO of his own, but I do think Moraes has more one-shot power. Moraes is also more dangerous on the mat but I don’t see either guy having a grappling-heavy game plan. I think Font is a decent underdog pick here and I think he can win this fight on volume alone, but Moraes has much higher-level experience and he will keep this fight close by landing heavy shots each round.
Font is my preferred play here because they really priced Moraes up on DraftKings. At $9k he will need a finish to win somebody $50,000. He does not have the volume to score highly in a decision and he won’t be racking up takedown and advance points either. I won’t X Moraes out of my player pool because he can get that KO, but I will for sure look to be underweight on him. At $7.2k, I like Font a good bit. He is the volume striker here and if he wins, I don’t see how he scores less than 10x. In his UFC wins so far, he has scored, 106, 111, 121, 121, 116, 107, and 80. I have to get exposure to an underdog like that and he has a lot of line value in this salary as well. I like Font in all formats, and I will look to go overweight on him.
Winner – Rob Font via Unanimous Decision
Michel Pereira $8,300 vs Khaos Williams $7,900
Michel Pereira
Age: 27
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: Scorpion Fighting System
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 2-2
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -125
Michel Pereira will be returning for the third time this year and looking to run his record to 2-1. He really should be 2-0 in 2020, as he dominated Diego Sanchez, but then lost in the third round via illegal knee. His last match was his most impressive, as he destroyed Zelim Imadaev over three rounds and got a late finish. Pereira is a polarizing fighter as some people love his style, and some people hate it. He plays around a lot in the cage but has made the style work for him. Pereira is huge for the division and super athletic. He bounces around on the outside and works off his kicks & jab. Pereira is very good at pulling opponents into his right straight or overhand. Pereira likes the right straight or hook to the body to a left hook to the head as a combination. Pereira has pretty heavy front & round kicks to the body & head. Pereira is very good at using feints or even his crazy footwork or dancing to freeze his opponents, and then enter range with a jumping attack. Pereira has nasty flying knees, jump kicks, rolling thunders, will mix in flips you name it. Pereira has very good head movement and is never a stationary target. He is always moving, feinting, switching stances, and giving different looks. When fighters back Pereira up to the fence, he is great at using the fence to jump off it with an attack, and not allow himself to get backed up. I do question the durability of Pereira a bit. He got hit with a jab against Dusko Todorovic that made him shell up against the cage & get finished. That was the only time Pereira has been finished by strikes.
Michel Pereira isn’t much of a grappler, but he uses the clinch effectively. He will close the distance with hooks or straight punches and grab the Muay Thai plum & land knees to the body & head. He doesn’t have good defense in the clinch & opponents can land big overhands over the top & uppercuts up the middle. I have seen him shoot singles & doubles & he got a double leg in his last match. His wrestling doesn’t look super elite. He did get a nice slam late in the third against Imadaev & then locked in a rear naked choke & ended the fight. Usually in top position Pereira uses it more to take a break. He will just lay in an opponent’s guard & try to land short hammerfists & punches. He will try crazy things such as back flip guard passes. I have even seen him drop an opponent against the cage, jump on the top of the cage & moonsault off it over his opponent as he stood up & then jumping side kicked him to the face. In his last match, he gassed out & then was dominated with grappling. Tristan Connelly was able to get in on his legs & put him on his back. When Connelly got top position, Pereira really struggled to do much of anything or get back to his feet. I have seen him hit with some big hammerfists in his guard & I feel an experienced grappler could dominate him on the ground. Pereira does have six submissions & has only has been submitted once. Pereira has finished 18 of his 24 wins. He is only 6-8 in decisions. Pereira seems to have corrected his cardio & weight cut issues his last two fights.
Khaos Williams
Age: 26
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 77”
Gym: Murciélago MMA
From: Michigan
UFC Record: 2-0
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: +105
Khaos Williams has entered the scene and put everyone on notice. He’s gone into both his UFC fights as a huge underdog and won both in 30 seconds or less. Khaos Williams has two UFC fights, two knockouts, in less than 1 minute of cage time. Williams has shown star potential inside & outside the octagon, and with this fight against Pereira, I see the winner skyrocketing. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Williams in the octagon with a big name in his next fight if he wins this one. Williams’ striking is not really that great in my opinion. Williams throws a lot of low kicks from the outside. He will leap into lead hooks, rear uppercuts and big overhands. Williams will throw wild right hooks. Williams has a long reach and is explosive, so he will leap into these shots and get full extension and has the power where even if he lands a little bit from too far outside he can shell shock his opponents and then explode in with a combination. He drops his hands when he throws kicks. Williams will trade sloppily on the inside. He leaves his head right on center line & against Pereira he could be in trouble if he gets touched clean. Williams did land that beautiful straight that put his last opponent to sleep though and could be improving. Williams’ striking is just not very good to me. He uses his reach, athleticism & power to overwhelm opponents and force his grappling. Williams has six knockouts in his career.
Khaos Williams will look to mix it up. He uses his athleticism to get on the inside and push fighters to the fence. From there Williams has a lot of close range power, & decent takedowns. Williams will look to catch kicks and take fighters down that way. On top, Williams is not super dangerous. He will just stay heavy on top, maul opponents, and land short ground & pound. Williams has good front chokes. He has one guillotine in his career. He does stay solid and has good cardio.
Williams is coming off 2 huge early KO’s which people love, so I expected him to be the favorite here. Pereira has shown big power too though and he caught people’s eye with his power before Khaos did, and he has shown us improvement since then putting a complete, dominant fight together in his last outing and getting a submission at the end of the fight. I know Khaos has power and could get a KO here, but he doesn’t have the “touch of death” so not every punch he lands will knock his opponent out. I will take Pereira here because I think he can put it all together and win in more ways than just a KO so I will wait and see with Williams. Either guy can get a knockout win here but if this goes all 3-rounds I favor Pereira.
This is a fight we need exposure to both sides with the power these guys bring and the -260 FDGTD line. Either guy could get a 1st round KO and at their price tags that will put them on the optimal lineup. I think Khaos will be the higher owned guy because people love those early KO guys and they think he has the touch of death, so that makes Pereira my preferred play. I think he can be the bully in this fight and land more volume. He can land takedowns as well, but the lower ownership on him is what really makes him my preferred play of the two. I will mix both guys into lineups and probably have this in half or more of my GPP lineups. I would fade this fight in cash though and if this goes to a decision, I don’t know that either guy makes the optimal lineup, so I want a good amount of lineups without it as well. Basically, do whatever you want with this fight in GPPs, but I wouldn’t trust either guy in your cash lineup.
Winner – Michel Pereira via Unanimous Decision
Jose Aldo $8,600 vs Marlon Vera $7,600
Jose Aldo
Age: 34
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 70”
Gym: Nova Uniao
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 10-6
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: -150
The living legend Jose Aldo fell short in his quest for UFC gold against Petr Yan. He had a spirited effort & pushed the champion, but ultimately faded and was finished in the fifth round. Jose Aldo is now 34 years old and is on the first three fight losing streak of his career. He is 0-2 at BW as well. The thing is he has only really lost to the best guys on the planet. His UFC losses have been to Petr Yan, a current UFC champion, Alexander Volkanovski a current UFC champion, Max Holloway a former UFC champion, Conor McGregor a former UFC champion, and a very contested decision against Marlon Moraes a former UFC title challenger. He is certainly getting a step down, but still a very stiff test in Marlon Chito Vera. Jose Aldo is one of the best strikers of all time. Aldo is extremely economical & accurate with his shots, and fights like a sniper. He has a tremendous jab, and lateral footwork, making it extremely hard for opponents to get inside. He does a great job of faking the jab to create an opening for his straight-right hand & does an excellent job of jabbing, stepping back and allowing his opponent to go first & countering with hard shots. He has nasty counter right straights & hooks. He likes to throw left hooks & straight-left hands into hard leg & body kicks. He does a great job of faking & feinting the same combinations he lands, really making his opponent always have to be reacting to him instead of creating their own offense. Aldo has some of the best leg kicks in MMA history, but really hasn’t thrown them much in recent fights. This is a strike he needs to get back to in this matchup and try to batter the lead leg of Vera. Aldo has amazing head movement & will slip and return in the pocket with hard hooks to the body. He has nasty step-in knees to the body when opponents try to get inside & will also throw flying knees which are devastating. He has finished multiple fights via flying knee KO. He will throw nice spinning body kicks and has good head kicks. Aldo is still extremely explosive & powerful and definitely the fighter with more one shot knockout power. He has always been one of the fastest fighters in the UFC, and it will be interesting to see who is faster in this matchup on the night. Aldo has 17 KO/TKO’s in his illustrious career, but his ability to take a shot has weakened, and he has been finished by strikes 4 times, all in his last 7 fights.
Aldo is in my opinion one of the best anti grapplers in MMA history. The ability he has to deny takedown attempts & make fighters pay for shooting is absolutely uncanny. He throws the front knees up the middle & flying knees to stop takedown attempts, along with very accurate uppercuts. Aldo is nasty in the clinch. He has great knees to the body & was able to get a highlight reel, flying knee KO of Chad Mendes directly off the break. He does a great job of limp legging out of single legs & sprawling on doubles. He has a great whizzer to deny single legs and will land hard hammerfists to the head. He was taken down with a throw against Marlon Moraes. In his fight with Petr Yan, he shot a takedown, got reversed and hurt to the body with big ground & pound shots. He ultimately got finished with ground & pound. Aldo rarely shoots takedowns, but he does have good, reactive double legs, and decent clinch takedowns. He is a black belt. His cardio for a three-round fight should be good enough to fight at a high pace.
Marlon Vera
Age: 28
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: RVCASport
From: Ecuador
UFC Record: 10-5
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +130
Marlon Vera picked up the biggest win of his life in August. Vera pulled the upset on one of the biggest prospects in MMA in Sean O’Malley. The win was a bit controversial to some, but to me Chito finished O’Malley in the first round cleanly. Vera could very well be on a 7-fight win streak, as his one loss in that run to Yadong Song a lot of people feel he won. At 28 years old he is in the prime of his career and should be extremely motivated to beat a legend like Aldo. Chito Vera is a savage. On the feet, he is constantly going forward and walking his opponents down. He has incredible cardio and a hell of a chin. Vera has never been finished in his career. Vera has also finished 15 of his 18 wins. Vera is a stance switcher who can kick effectively from both stances. He has nasty rear leg kicks. He landed a leg kick that demobilized Sean O’Malley. He throws nice inside, outside low kicks, front & round kicks to the body, and a brutal head kick. Vera has nasty knees up the middle as well that are very dangerous. In close range, Vera is very good at slipping & ripping while mixing in knees and elbows. If Vera gets his opponent near the cage, he explodes and will throw multi shot combinations going for the kill. His boxing has improved as well since he’s been working with Jason Parillo. Vera’s jab has improved, and he will throw nice combinations to the body & head. His straight-left hand is very long & accurate. Vera also has a nice left hook. He likes to throw jab, left hooks from orthodox, and will throw a lot of lead left hooks & uppercuts. Chito does stand tall and has been susceptible to low kicks and body shots. Vera can be hittable at times and struggles against fighters who can pot shot him. Vera starts slowing in a lot of fights & needs time to break his opponents down. He isn’t much of a round winner, but he is always looking for the finishing opportunity. Vera has 6 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Marlon Vera is a super dangerous, opportunistic black belt. When Vera gets his opponents near the fence, he will explode and unload with a barrage of shots. Vera is excellent at mixing in the Thai plum in his punching combinations and landing ruthless knees to the body & head. Vera also is always looking to snap his opponent down & snatch up that neck. In his last match with Andre Ewell, Vera tried several standing arm triangles. He also was able to snap down Ewell with a front head lock in the third round, and then finished the fight with brutal ground & pound. Vera isn’t the fighter to use a wrestling heavy game plan. He likes to pressure guys & force them to shoot or catch a submission from standing. Vera can pull guard at times for the sub which loses him rounds. Vera also doesn’t have great takedown defense, but he is tricky off his back. He has a dangerous guard and is always throwing up armbars & triangles. Most of Vera’s victories are via triangle. I don’t think his guard is extremely high level though, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Aldo was able to control and stay safe on top. Vera does have seven submissions, so opponents always have to be careful. Vera is going to have the youth edge here & is riding a wave of momentum. His cardio is top notch, he has the will & heart, now he just has to prove he has the skills to pay the bills.
This could be a changing of the guards. Aldo’s best days are behind him and Vera is in the prime of his career right now and knocking on the door for a shot at the title. Both guys have solid grappling games, but I don’t think we see a lot of takedown attempts here and this one should mainly take place on the feet. I still give Aldo the edge in the striking though and I agree with the line making him a small favorite. I do think this will be back and forth and close on volume. I think Aldo is the more technical and powerful striker though, so I am going to lean with him. I would feel even better about him if I knew he would use leg kicks as well, but I will take him to win 2 of 3 rounds.
I don’t see me getting much of this fight on DraftKings. It is the co-main event, and they are both two of the bigger names on the card, so maybe too much ownership comes with that. I don’t see either guy scoring highly without a finish in this fight and it will probably be a technical, slower-paced striking match. Vera is probably my preferred play though because he is a live dog and at his price tag, he will have an easier time reaching 10x in a decision win. Vegas has this fight -195 to go to decision and I don’t see either guy having 100-point upside if it does.
Winner – Jose Aldo via Unanimous Decision
Geoff Neal $8,400 vs Stephan Thompson $7,800
Geoff Neal
Age: 30
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 75”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 5-0
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -120
Geoff Neal is finally getting his just due after a perfect 5-0 start to his UFC career. Geoff Neal has run through most of his opponents finishing four of the five. Neal is coming off a nasty first round knockout over Mike Perry. Now he is getting a huge step up in one of the best strikers of all time, Wonderboy Thompson. This will be his first main event and five round fight as well. Neal has some of the cleanest striking in all the UFC. Neal seamlessly switches stances and has a nasty straight-left & straight-right hand. He has a nasty jab and will double & triple up on it. He has great distance control, and the ability to slide in & out of range. He will swarm with one-twos when he has opponents hurt, but still keeps his composure & won’t brawl. Opponents seem very surprised at how far out he can hit them, and he has phenomenal extension on his punches. His punches come so fast & clean and fighters don’t see them coming. He has a nasty head kick knockout in his last match and sets it up very well. Neal has very good low kicks which he needs to use early & often in this dight. Neal has historically been durable. Neal got rocked with a head butt, when he flurried in & didn’t respect Niko Price. He has to learn from that & not do it again here. Neal has 7 KO/TKO’s and has been finished once by strikes against MW Kevin Holland. I also feel that stoppage was a bit premature.
Geoff Neal is a strong grappler. He is improving with his takedown defense and is very hard to hold down. He is super explosive, and when opponents get him down he bounces right back to his feet. He is strong in the clinch and will get a double underhook position and land hard knees. He also has nasty elbows. He does a great job of disengaging the clinch when fighters put his back against the cage and returning to the center. He did a great job of defending all the takedowns of Camacho & Belal Muhammad, but he was taken down on his DWCS fight against Chase Waldon. Neal showed incredible balance & strength against Muhammad. He was defending takedowns by posting with one hand and seems to be massively improved in that area He was also able to get a no hook rear naked choke in his first UFC fight against Brian Camozzi. When he gets top position, he is very heavy and has strong ground & pound. He proved that taking Niko Price out with strikes from inside the guard. He has been submitted one time in his 3rd MMA fight. He has two submissions himself. He has great cardio and can go for all three rounds easily.
Stephen Thompson
Age: 37
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 75”
Gym: upstate karate
From: South Carolina
UFC Record: 10-4-1
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +100
Stephen Wonderboy Thompson is looking to put one last run together. At 37 years old he has seen his better days but had another epic performance in his last fight against Vicente Luque. Prior to that Thompson did suffer back to back losses including the first knockout loss of his career. If he can get by Geoff Neal though, he probably will get another shot at a number one contenders bout. Thompson is a 5th degree black belt in karate & a phenomenal striker. Thompson has that sideways karate stance, and a very unique skill set. He switches stances and is blazing fast in & out. He has the best distance control in the UFC bar none. That sideways stance makes him extremely hard to get inside on or hit to the body or head. It does leave him susceptible to leg kicks, and Darren Till was able to damage the leg of Thompson with an oblique kick. Thompson has a nasty jab, and a very good one-two especially from southpaw. He has a very heavy straight-left hand. He will use his opponents forward pressure to angle & counter with punches usually. He is excellent at pivoting or moving just slightly out of the way & then springing back in with counters. Against Tyron Woodley, he did have some success going first, landing combinations as Woodley was along the cage. He would paw out the jab to get openings for his hooks & uppercuts. He also will attack the body with straights and hooks as well. He uses his lead leg incredibly well from both sides. He has the best front kicks to the body & head in the game. He will constantly attack the body with the front kick to get opponents to drop their hands & then go to the head. He likes to throw a one-two from orthodox, switch stances into a question mark kick to the head. He has nice hook kicks to the head along with spinning heel kicks. His spinning heel kick to the body & most specifically the head, may be the best in the sport. He has multiple spinning heel kick knockouts in the UFC. Thompson does have a good chin & is tough. He was knocked out for the first time in his career in his last match. Thompson has been taking some damage lately. He has been dropped in 4 of his last 6 fights. He has 7 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Stephen Thompson is not an active grappler whatsoever. He has shown the ability to land the double leg. He will fake a blitz attack & then duck under for reactive double legs. He won’t be shooting takedowns in this fight. His takedown defense is very good. His movement overall, makes it hard for opponents to time a solid entry or get inside on him. His sideways stance also makes it nearly impossible to double leg him. He had two fights with a powerhouse wrestler in Tyron Woodley and was hardly taken down. The couple times he was taken down, Woodley was able to do damage with G&P. Thompson has shown extreme heart & ability to fight submissions. He was rocked badly multiple times & then put in a deep Guillotine against Woodley but found his way out of it. Thompson is going to be someone who will be extremely hard to submit or control on the mat.
Geoff Neal is the real deal. He is one of my favorite strikers currently and this is a fight that should stay on the feet. Neal is more likely to look for takedowns in this spot, but I don’t think he will need to. This should be a karate fighter vs a boxer with Thompson being the one looking to stay on the outside, pick his shots and try to stay in kicking range. Neal has great, powerful kicks as well, but he should not be looking to play Thompson’s game. Neal should be pushing him backward and taking the kicking game out of it, and if he is pressuring Thompson heavily, I think he gets a KO at some point in this fight. I think Neal’s hands are just too good and we have seen Thompson dropped by guys like Woodley and Pettis who I don’t think are on the same level as Neal here. I think he can win with a KO or a decision here, but I see him putting Wonderboy away.
Because this is 5-rounds, and priced in the mid-range, I will be pretty much all-in on this fight. Neal is my preferred play because he is the guy with more power and the one I see getting a KO. He is also the guy who throws more volume. On average, Neal lands over 6 significant strikes per minute and Thompson lands less than 4. I do think Thompson will be heavily owned as well because he landed 128 sig strikes in his last fight and MMA fans have very short memories. That is the highest he has ever landed by far and he has been 25-minutes on four occasions. I don’t see Thompson landing that kind of volume against Neal, but it is 5-rounds, and he is an underdog, so he is in play as well. He could even get a KO of his own, but I think Neal is more likely to do that and I also think Neal is more likely to land takedowns as well. I will be taking more of a stand on Neal and I probably go closer to 70/30 in favor of him with my lineups. He has scored 86 or more DK points in all his UFC fights and now he gets an extra two possible rounds. I think you can stack this fight in cash games as well because it is such a close fight and hope your opponents go solo on the main event and pick the wrong guy.
Winner – Geoff Neal via 3rd round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown & be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building & I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend & enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on Twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks & predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice & fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on Twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: BigMarleyMMA.com
- Bets are on a 1-5u scale with 1u = $100.
- I am 153-130 for +243.72u (+$24,372) since May 19, 2018 for all premium bets.
