BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC Vegas 16 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. This is a solid card and DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games & look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience & you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player & it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups & 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights, & hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Gian Villante $8,800 vs Jake Collier $7,400
Gian Villante
Age: 35
Height: 6’3
Weight: 255
Reach: 6’3
Gym: Bellmore Kickboxing MMA
From: New York
UFC Record: 7-9
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -200
Gian Villante usually starts fights very well. He has a nasty jab, great leg kicks, and throws hard one-twos. He has a very nice overhand right, left hook combination. He throws hard & has good power. He will throw a jab, overhand right combo. He likes to throw lead left hooks. He has good body & head kicks. After the first round his volume stops significantly, and I feel his power does as well, because fighters will start walking him down. He doesn’t move his head & is super hittable. Villante is weak to the body. His durability is a bit compromised, but he doesn’t have a bad chin. He has been finished 5 times by TKO. He has 10 KO/TKO’s himself, but only 1 in his last 9 fights.
Villante is not an active wrestler and is the antithesis of a lay & prey fighter. He does have 5 UFC takedowns. He attempted a takedown in round 3 against Ed Herman when he was exhausted but did not land it. I have heard Matt Serra say he has a good grappling game & is strong on top. He says he is strangling black belts in the gym, so it will be interesting if we ever see that in the octagon. Villante has very good takedown defense and shucks off the clinch well too. He was able to stuff almost all the attempts of Patrick Cummings a D-1 wrestler, and I doubt he will get taken down in this matchup. In his last fight, he dropped Maurice Greene, but then got exhausted trying to finish, & was submitted mostly due to being tired. Villante has two submissions himself.
Jake Collier
Age: 32
Height: 6’3
Weight: 264
Reach: 78.5”
Gym: No Excuses MMA
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 3-4
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +170
Jake Collier showed up for his first fight in years in horrible shape his last fight. He was handled accordingly and finished in less than one minute. Collier is a tough, gritty guy who likes to make fights dirty. He comes forward and throws jabs, one-twos, a lot of hooks and overhands. Collier will throw a lot of kicks; Hard leg kicks, as well as front & round kicks to the body. He has tricky high kicks. He will throw a lot spinning backfists & kicks to the body. He is very tough, durable, throws a lot of volume and loves a war. Collier wears guys down & takes them out late. He has five KO/TKO’s. Collier is very hittable though, and his footwork isn’t the best. All his output leaves him available to be hit & he goes to the well with the spins too much. I also think Villante is just much cleaner, faster and tighter with his boxing, while Collier throws wide. Collier has been finished by strikes three times.
Jake Collier is a scrappy guy in the grappling realm as well. He is dangerous in the clinch with knees. He is pretty good at getting the tight waist and circling to the back. Collier has average takedown defense and will make opponents work for them. He is pretty good in the scrambles. Collier does have three submissions of his own & has been submitted just one time. He had great cardio in the past & wore guys down. (This is all from in shape Collier)
These guys look like they have been more focused on eating than fighting the last couple years and I doubt we see the loser get another chance in the UFC. Villante did not look good physically or fighting wise in his last fight, but he still looked better than Collier who was away from the sport for 3 years and came back twice his size. If this goes the distance it will likely be a slop fest but give me Villante to get a knockout in the 1st or 2nd.
This is going to be Villante or pass for me on DraftKings. I think Villante is the one that is much more likely to get the KO here and that is probably the only way either of these guys score well. Villante ITD is +145 and I think it should be closer to even money personally. I do like Villante for GPPs because I think that 1st round KO is very possible here and maybe people are down on him and his ownership reflects it. Collier is a full fade for me with 20 or less lineups. I would probably need to get closer to 50 lineups before I start throwing Collier into my player pool. I don’t know that I would touch Villante in cash games, but I wouldn’t talk you off it either.
Winner – Gian Villante via 1st round (T)KO
Ilia Topuria $9,000 vs Damon Jackson $7,200
Ilia Topuria
Age: 23
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 69”
Gym: MMA Masters
From: Georgia
UFC Record: 1-0
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W9
Betting Odds: -250
Ilia Topuria continued the Georgian invasion defeating Youssef Zalal in his UFC debut. Topuria is one of the top prospects at FW & undefeated at 9-0. Topuria has spent this camp at MMA Masters, and at 23 years old he will look better every time out. Topuria is getting a big step up from Youssef Zalal here though and needs to be super sharp to win this matchup. Topuria is an explosive striker. Topuria is a little wild, but clearly improving. He maintains distance well. Topuria has a solid jab, a really nice two & pull counter. He will throw some nasty overhands & lead uppercuts. He will throw some really tight lead hooks to the body & head. He is very wild with his hands. In his fight in Brave, he did get dropped early on with a high kick but recovered really quickly and ended up closing the show with an absolutely viscous knockout of his own. He landed one overhand that crumbled his opponent. That was Topuria’s only knockout of his career.
Ilia Topuria is a very strong grappler. He has very nice timing on his level changes. Topuria closes the distance quickly, uses his hands to disguise the level change and hit doubles. Topuria on top is an aggressive passer. He will grape vine the legs to avoid the guard and is very good at sticking the back. Once Topuria takes the back, he has excellent control. Topuria has nasty rear naked choke victories. Topuria will hunt for guillotines & armbars from the back also. He also has some sweet front chokes. Topuria is super aggressive and dangerous in the first. He has 7 first round submissions. In his fight with Zalal, Topuria took him down and dominated him mainly. Zalal did get pretty close on some guillotines, and Topuria got very tired in the third round. That was the first time Topuria went to a third round, or a decision.
Damon Jackson
Age: 32
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 73”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 1-1-1
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +210
Damon Jackson once again showed he should never be slept on. The all action veteran added another victim to his list submitting Mirsad Bektic in the third round. Jackson has a sick record of 18-3-1, with 17 finishes. Jackson has been to decision just one time in 22 fights. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a boring Damon Jackson fight. He is a dog that is willing to take punishment to get to his end goal of victory. On the feet, Jackson is pretty solid. Offensively, Jackson is pretty dangerous. He has a good frame for the division. Jackson is tall, long & throws sharp, straight shots. Jackson throws a nice jab and a really nice one-two. Jackson’s jab to overhand right combination is super accurate and powerful. Go check out his overhand right that knocked out Nate Jennerman if you haven’t seen it. He throws a lot of really nice front kicks & knees to the body & head. Jackson will throw some jab to front kicks or jab to round kick combinations. Jackson has really improved his striking, but his finishes still do come mostly on the mat. Jackson has three career KO/TKO’s. Jackson’s striking defense is not very good. Jackson has a bad habit of dropping his hands & throwing naked kicks. Jackson can also duck his head down when throwing & get timed with uppercuts or flying knees. Jackson isn’t the best athlete either, so sometimes faster guys can touch him up. Jackson is extremely tough & durable though. When he gets hurt, he becomes more dangerous. Fighters have to put Jackson out to get him to stop coming forward. Jackson has been knocked out twice in his career. In both he was flatlined & went out cold.
Damon Jackson is a super dangerous grappler. They don’t call him “The Leach” for no reason. Jackson has pretty good wrestling. In the clinch, Jackson has pretty good knees, and dirty boxing. He sets his takedowns up with his striking fairly well. Jackson’s defensive wrestling isn’t great but try to takedown Jackson at your own risk. Mirsad Bektic learned that in his last fight. Bektic took him down multiple times, and got into a lot of good positions, but opponents don’t want to scramble with Jackson. He is very calm in bad positions and has the cardio to scramble and catch opponents even deep into fights. Jackson has a nasty guillotine & is always looking to wrap up that neck. Jackson hit another mounted guillotine in his last fight against Bektic. He hit it in the third round of a fight he took on three days’ notice & was losing 20-18. Jackson will look to hit kimuras and he will roll for leg locks. Jackson is never static on the ground, and always making opponents work. When Jackson can get on top, he has nasty ground & pound. He has great passing ability & a lot of submissions he goes to. He has very good arm triangles & rear naked chokes. Jackson has fourteen submission wins. He is a veteran at this point who is super tough, durable, has great cardio and is just a dangerous guy.
I like Topuria here and if Jackson didn’t get a late submission after taking a two-round beating from Bektic and gassing him out, we would see a wider line. Bektic is known to gas out and Jackson took advantage of it and tapped him out. That is really his path to victory in this spot too, but I think Topuria has more of a gas tank than Bektic does. Topuria should have a big grappling edge, especially early in this fight. I think an early sub is very possibly for him and he is the better striker in my opinion as well and maybe he can even land a KO shot. I do think Topuria locks up a submission early, but Jackson is tough and if he can weather a 2-round storm again, maybe he can lock up another late submission. Topuria looks like a solid, young prospect though and I think the UFC wants him to win this fight to build him up more.
Topuria is my preferred play on DK and I might end up full fading Jackson with 20 or less lineups. Topuria has the ability to rack up takedowns and advances and he is a finisher as well. He scored 97.5 DK points in his UFC debut and that included 5 takedowns and 12 advances in a decision win where he only landed 13 significant strikes. He might look to strike more in this matchup and that will be bad for DK scoring unless he gets a knockout. I will probably be close to the field in ownership on him though and I would guess he is close to 40% owned. Jackson needs a submission to win this fight and the earlier he gets it the more he can score. I just don’t see him getting it and I think if he does it is more likely late than early. When he did that in his last fight, he only scored 59 DK points. I don’t see me rostering Jackson this week and I like Topuria in all formats.
Winner – Ilia Topuria via 1st round Submission
Jimmy Flick $8,500 vs Cody Durden $7,700
Jimmy Flick
Age: 30
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Forza Combat Sports
From: Oklahoma
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -165
Jimmy Flick after twenty MMA fights & ten years as a pro is finally getting his shot in the UFC. Flick has had a great year so far. He is 3-0 and has picked up back to back solid wins. Flick won the LFA title in just 38 seconds and followed that up with another submission win on the contender series. Flick is a submission artist with limited standup. Flick throws a lot of kicks on the feet. Flick will throw some hard, low kicks. Flick doesn’t use his hands much but likes to throw the lead hook. He will flurry in with some punches to get in on a takedown. Flick will throw some body & head kicks. Flick was able to catch Chris Gutierrez coming in with a front kick that dropped him. Flick is low volume but feints a lot & gets fighters thinking with fake level changes. Flick has a bad habit of backing up to the cage & shelling up when he’s hurt. Fighters can close that distance, use clinch knees or a flurry and take him out usually. Flick has been finished by KO/TKO in four of his five losses. Flick has no knockouts in his career, emphasizing even more that his striking is purely to setup takedowns.
Jimmy Flick’s objective in every fight is to get the fight to the mat. Flick will use his striking only as a distraction to get in on the legs or in the clinch. Flick has a good single leg. Flick will explode into well timed double legs. He will use the single to drive opponents to the cage & then work from there. Flick can chain wrestle against the cage and has pretty good body locks. Flick’s wrestling isn’t super high level though. Flick can struggle to hit takedowns against fighters with good wrestling or takedown defense. When he does get on top, Flick is super aggressive and has a sick Jiu-Jitsu game. Flick is always looking to pass or attack the finish. He isn’t a lay & pray guy when he gets on top. In his last match, he showed off a lot of wrinkles in his ground game. Flick was attacking from everywhere, top, bottom it didn’t matter. Flick on top has great back takes. He will look to attack front chokes. He will attack the arms from side control or top/back mount. His arm triangle is top notch. When Flick gets put on his back, he will attack leg locks, and a plethora of other submissions. Flick has great sweeping ability. In his last fight, Flick was transitioning from sub to sub super fluidly. He had a nasty sequence at the end of the second where he went from a mounted armbar to a omaplata to a triangle and his opponent, Smith, was saved by the bell. Flick was eventually able to catch Smith in an arm triangle in round three and end the fight. Flick has thirteen submission victories. His cardio is top notch & he definitely will be pumped up to show he belongs here.
Cody Durden
Age: 29
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: ATT Atlanta
From: Georgia
UFC Record: 0-0-1
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: 1Draw
Betting Odds: +145
Cody Durden performed very well all things considered in his UFC debut. Durden took a fight on short notice, up a weight class, with the super talented Chris Gutierrez & gutted out a draw. Now he is moving back down to 125 lbs, has more notice for the fight and wants to show the world what he can do. Durden is once again the slight underdog here as he takes on the vet Jimmy Flick. Durden is the superior striker, and the better athlete. He has much better footwork, switches stances well, and is just way faster. Durden is aggressive and likes to pressure forward and get in the pocket. He throws heavy low kicks. He has a nice jab to the body & head. Durden is good at jabbing his way inside for his straight-right hand. He is good at feinting the level changes and then coming over the top with a power overhand. He will close the distance with straights & attack the body with big hooks. Durden will throw some nice round & question mark kicks to the head. Durden has good eyes and head movement inside. He will use his ability to mix it up to his advantage. Durden will feint level changes to setup his strikes. He then will pull fighters into takedowns as well & keep them off balance. Durden did get beat up the last two rounds on the feet in his fight with Gutierrez. The leg kicks added up and he became too desperate for the takedowns and started to get countered hard. He showed toughness to survive to the final bell and earn the draw. Durden is going to be the clearly superior striker here and should try to exploit that. Durden has five career KO/TKO’s mostly on the ground.
Cody Durden is mainly a grappler. He has very good wrestling. He will shoot nice single and double legs. He is very good at exchanging a bit to keep fighters guessing and then ducking under for the level change. He is strong in the clinch. He is explosive with his shots & going to be able to get takedowns at the UFC level. Durden on top is very aggressive looking to pass and throw ground & pound. In his last fight, Durden was able to get a 10-8 in round one by holding back control after a takedown for nearly the entire round. Durden has pretty good control, but his submission defense is very questionable. He is a back taker and when he takes it he finishes the fight. He has great rear nakeds and ground & pound from the back mount. Durden leaves his neck out there to get guillotined. He can be swept and threatened with submissions when he’s on bottom. He does have good scrambling ability and can standup from bottom well. Durden has five submissions but isn’t great with the Jiu-Jitsu. Durden was submitted by rear naked choke in 2018 against a 12-13 fighter. He trains at ATT Atlanta which has good Jiu-Jitsu players like Roan Carneiro so that should be improving.
This should be a grappling heavy fight. On the feet, it is probably a close fight, but I doubt we see a KO and I don’t see this being on the feet long enough for the striking to dictate a round. Durden might be the better wrestler between the two, but Flick is on a different level in the BJJ department and I think he will lock up a submission at some point in this fight.
I do like both sides of this fight for DraftKings because I think both have 100+ upside with a finish. Flick should look to grapple often in this fight and if he wins, he has a chance to get multiple takedowns and advances, plus a submission. If Durden wins there is a good chance he tests Flick’s questionable chin and gets a KO. I do think if this goes to a decision the only one that would score highly in a win is Flick. Flick is my preferred play in this matchup because he will be the one more interested in grappling and I think he gets the sub. I won’t be too overweight on Flick, but I do see me looking to be in line with or overweight on both guys in this spot with Flick being the guy I am more interested in for SE and 3-entry max contests. Flick does have a nice ITD line at -104 and I think he is even cash playable with Durden’s +385 TKO line.
Winner – Jimmy Flick via 2nd round Submission
Jordan Leavitt $9,200 vs Matt Wiman $7,000
Jordan Leavitt
Age: 25
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: Syndicate MMA
From: Nevada
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -400
Jordan Leavitt kept his perfect record in tact his last time out where he submitted Luke Flores in the first round. Leavitt is now 7-0 in MMA & looking to make a splash in the UFC. Matt Wiman will be the most experienced fighter Leavitt has fought and a good transition to the UFC. Jordan Leavitt’s striking style is hard to describe. Leavitt uses a lot of unorthodox feints, upper body movement, false starts, and fake level changes. He will butt scoot while throwing head kicks off his butt. Jordan is a very tough guy to fight or prepare for. will use a lot of kicks. He has some pretty nasty front & round kicks to the body. Leavitt will sometimes just come forward with a flying kick or punch solely to crash the distance & get connected. Leavitt will use punches mostly as a distraction or setup for a kick, takedown or clinch entry.
Jordan Leavitt is a great submission grappler. He is super flexible & has a funky style of getting the fight to the ground by any means necessary even if that means accepting bottom position. Jordan does have a good body lock off the cage, decent timing on his level changes, but he is really good with leg locks. He will put fighters into leg entanglements and use those to sweep. He is amazing at sweeping from bottom, and when he gets on top he is very good. He has great back takes, front chokes, and armbars. His back takes are very good, and he has no problem giving up position for submission, because of his confidence to fight from anywhere on the ground. Jordan’s pace and ability to continue to be funky and create constant scrambles, tires fighter out, and I think Wiman won’t be able to keep up. Leavitt has five submissions wins.
Matt Wiman
Age: 37
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 67”
Gym: Tulsa Top Team
From: Oregon
UFC Record: 10-7
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +325
Matt Wiman must have something on Dana White or the matchmakers. After two downright terrible performances, he is still getting another go here. For Matt Wiman to even return was strange, due to him taking nearly five years off, and it hasn’t gone well. Wiman has lost every round, maybe 10-8, and was finished in one of those two fights. Wiman did have a good UFC career back in the day, but he hasn’t won a fight since 2014. On the feet, Wiman is really bad. He is very slow, plodding and stands super straight & flat footed. Wiman throws a lot of low kicks. He will throw some decent straight & overhand rights. Wiman will look to close the distance with big hooks. He will try to use superman punches to close the distance. Wiman is just so slow & in his last fight he was literally just standing there flat footed.
Matt Wiman has been thoroughly out grappled in his last two UFC fights. In his match with Luis Pena, he was finished with ground & pound. Wiman actually did land a couple single legs on Pena, and his timing isn’t bad. Wiman was reversed very quickly after getting the takedowns on Pena, though. Wiman just is way too eager to attack submissions or get into a dominant position that he makes bad decisions and ends up on bottom. Wiman off his back isn’t terrible but has no get-up game to speak of. Wiman likes to play Jiu-Jitsu on bottom and go for submissions or sweeps. His defense on bottom isn’t terrible, but not great. He is always moving & has a lot of heart. Wiman will look to attack the neck. He catches guillotines as fighters shoot in on him. Wiman will throw some elbows off his back. Wiman attacks leg locks a lot. Wiman got taken down several times against Joe Solecki. He couldn’t get-up off his back and ate a lot of ground & pound. Wiman’s cardio has looked really bad in his two return fights.
This is probably the last time we see Wiman in the UFC. I think he can have success on the feet in this matchup, but I don’t see this fight staying on the feet long and I doubt he gets an early KO. Once Leavitt gets ahold of Wiman, he is going to have a big grappling advantage and I don’t think it will take long for him to lock up a submission. Leavitt looks like a guy that can only grapple, but he is going to have the advantage on the mat against most of the division.
Leavitt is my preferred play on DraftKings and Wiman might be another cheap fade for me. I don’t want to invest in Wiman at this point in his career and I think a KO would be his best path to a high score. His best attribute is his wrestling, so I am not even confident he doesn’t look for takedowns and I think all the grappling exchanges will favor Leavitt. He has a +100 ITD line and I do see him locking up a sub. I like Leavitt in all formats if we can afford him, but I don’t see him scoring highly if he doesn’t get an early submission. If he doesn’t get the 1st round sub, then I am not confident he gets to 10x.
Winner – Joran Leavitt via 1st round Submission
Louis Smolka $8,300 vs Jose Quinonez $7,900
Louis Smolka
Age: 29
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 68.5”
Gym: Team Oyama
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 7-7
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -135
Louis Smolka will be looking to get back in the win column after yet another UFC setback. Smolka has won enough to hang around the UFC a long time, but just isn’t a consistent guy. Smolka is 7-7 in his UFC career. In his second stint with the promotion he is 2-2. Smolka is a fixture in this division though & a tough out. He has always been a kill or be killed fighter, and his last seven fights have not gone to see the scorecards. Smolka has finished fourteen of his sixteen wins overall. In decisions he is just 2-4. Smolka showed some improvements on the feet in his last fight. Smolka is a pressure fighter on the feet and likes to walk down opponents. He likes to throw a check left hook, leg and body kicks. He will throw a jab, straight-right hand. He will throw front kicks to the body, and then try to land a right hook over the top. He has good head kicks. He will throw a lot of straight-right hands. He is slow with his strikes, and fighters are able to see his punches coming and slip them and catch his kicks. He doesn’t have great defense, he will just raise his guard and stand flat footed. He is tough and has a good chin. He will continue to press forward even after he is dropped or bloodied. Smolka isn’t a huge KO threat on the feet, but he has 7 KO/TKO finishes. He has never been finished with strikes himself.
Smolka is a good BJJ practitioner. He is tall and long for the division. He uses his length to get body locks and trip takedowns and will also shoot single legs. He did a great job of getting in on the single against Su Mudaerji. He was able to get good timing on a double leg, drove his opponent to the cage & changed it to a single and got him down. Smolka does a good job of using his length in opponent’s guards to posture up and land hard punches. He is good at throwing the legs to the side & moving to side control. He looks to be worried more about control now than he did previously. He is dangerous with submissions, and very good in scrambles. In the past, he used to go for a lot of high risk submission attempts & be in scramble fest fights. He now in his last few matches is worried more about control & G&P before looking for submission. He took a beating against Kyle Estrada, and was able to survive, get a takedown in round two and rain down G&P from mount. He severely hurt Estrada and had a great amount of volume. The fight was stopped between rounds. He also had some great ground & pound against Mudaerji and a slick back take. In his fight against Matt Schnell, he was caught in a triangle & submitted while in top position. He has 7 submissions and has been submitted twice.
Jose Quinonez
Age: 30
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: Alliance MMA
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 5-3
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +115
Jose Quinonez needs to have a good performance here. He was embarrassed by Sean O’Malley & finished in the first round. To me it was the worst performance of Teco’s career, and he may have let the moment get to him. Quinonez has a good UFC record, but the fighters he’s beaten are all suspect. If you look at Teco’s UFC wins almost all those guys are no longer in the UFC. Teco seems like the guy the UFC tests prospects with, or tests fighters they think are fringe UFC level. If they can’t beat Teco they get cut. Quinones is not a great striker. He is light on his feet & has that Alliance MMA movement. He will switch stances & throws a lot of feints out there. Teco tries to stay in & out. He has a pretty good jab & nice low kicks. Teco will throw some nice front kicks to the body. He has pretty good high kicks. Teco doesn’t really have power. He likes to stick & move. He has only one career TKO. Teco’s defense isn’t the best. Teco throws a lot of naked leg kicks that can get him countered. He also pulls back instead of moving his feet way too much. In boxing range, he is extremely hittable. He seemed to get overwhelmed and just wanted out of there in his last fight with Sean O’Malley. Teco has been finished by strikes just twice in his career but is a bit chinny.
Jose “Teco” Quinonez is a better grappler than striker. He has Jiu-Jitsu tatted on his chest & likes to take fighters down. Teco has nice timing on his doubles & body lock trips. He has good takedowns in the clinch against the cage. On top, Teco is not very good. He isn’t overly dangerous and doesn’t have the best top control. He will throw some decent ground & pound from full or half guard. Quinonez has the cardio to grapple for three rounds, which is his best asset. He has only one career submissions & isn’t a finisher. Quinonez isn’t great off his back. In his fight with Nathaniel Wood when he was taken down, he quickly gave his back & got submitted. Quinonez shows poor fight IQ when he faces adversity & gets overwhelmed. He has been finished in three of his four losses. He has been submitted just that one time.
This should be a fun fight but Smolka is going to be the pick. I give Smolka the advantage in striking and grappling here and he is the higher paced fighter who should be pushing the pace. Quinonez is the better wrestler of the two and Smolka will accept takedowns, but I don’t see Quinonez having a lot of success on the mat even if he can land them, so he would need to rack them up to get more points from the judges here. I think Smolka is more likely to win by KO, submission, or decision.
Smolka fights typically score well on DraftKings so this will be a fight I look to target. Both sides are in play but Smolka will be my preferred play of the two. He is the guy I would expect to strike at a higher pace, and he is a solid grappler that can get takedowns, reverses, and advance points if the fight hits the mat. He could get a finish on the feet or the mat as well, so I like all of that about Smolka and I will probably look to be overweight to the field on him. Smolka will accept takedowns though and Quinonez goes for 5 takedowns per fight on average and he could rack up multiple takedowns if he wins this fight or even get a submission win. He is a dog that is in play this week, but I will probably match the field on him or go underweight.
Winner – Louis Smolka via Unanimous Decision
Movsar Evloev $9,300 vs Nate Landwehr $6,900
Movsar Evloev
Age: 26
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: Russia
UFC Record: 3-0
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W13
Betting Odds: -630
Movsar Evloev is once again a massive favorite as he tries to make it 14-0. Evloev has been excellent thus far in the UFC going 3-0. Evloev has been able to dominate all three fights over the three-round duration and get unanimous decisions. Now Evloev will be taking on a fighter who called him out in Nate Landwehr. On the feet, Evloev isn’t the best, but he’s awkward and effective. He walks fighters down constantly & is a just a workhorse. He has heavy one-twos and throws stiff shots. He will throw jab, uppercuts, and jab, overhand rights. He has good straight punch leads. He throws hard & with a lot of volume. It’s tough for fighters to get aggressive or a good read on him because he has amazing level changes mid combination. He will throw some heavy low kicks and body kicks. He will even throw some high kicks, front kicks to the face & spinning kicks. He will try to dig body shots. I’m sure his striking is constantly improving at Tiger Muay Thai. Evloev is still stiff. He’s improving his footwork & lateral movement, but he can still back up with his chin high. Evloev doesn’t react the best to pressure & fighters who throw longer combinations. Barzola was able to tag him with some shots as he followed him with punches as he went straight backwards.
Movsar Evloev is an elite grappler for MMA. He has been called the mini Khabib for how he mauls his opponents. His wrestling is similar as well, although Evloev is more Greco Roman. He will shoot in on the legs, but usually only to push opponents to the cage & take them down in the clinch. He is excellent at shooting in on singles & doubles, and then coming up into a body lock. His level changes are amazing, extremely fast and well timed. He did struggle to take down Enrique Barzola after round one who is a great scrambler. Evloev is excellent in the clinch against the cage. He will look for foot sweeps, body locks, and has very good control there. In this fight I think Evloev needs cage grinding time to win. He is extremely strong & will dig an underhook & muscle opponents to the ground. He likes to get into half guard & smash opponents. Most of the time when he’s taking an opponent down, they don’t get free from him for the remainder of the round. Even if they stand up, he stays attached and mat returns them. He had a strong mount & will throw hard G&P. He has great back takes & back control. He has tremendous grappling cardio & wears on fighters with his pressure, pace & riding ability. He has been in five round fights & not slowed down. He is good off his back at sweeping to top position as well. He was taken down late in round two with a big double leg by Barzola and ate some ground & pound shots. Evloev got taken down a few times his last fight but showed amazing scrambling ability & cardio. Evloev has 4 submissions, all rear naked chokes.
Nate Landwehr
Age: 32
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: SSF Submission Academy
From: Tennessee
UFC Record: 1-1
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +465
Nate Landwehr is a certified wild man. From the way he fights to his pre and post-fight interviews, he is pure entertainment. Nate Landwehr is confident & asked for this fight. Landwehr has good reason to have some confidence as well. If you look at Landwehr’s career he made a living off beating Russian wrestlers in M-1 Challenge. He is used to seeing this style & we will see if he can pull another win out here. Landwehr is a dog, constantly walking his opponents down looking for the kill. He isn’t very technical but improving a bit fight by fight. He has gotten better at keeping his hands up & staying lighter on his feet. Landwehr will look to use low kicks & front kicks to the body at distance, but really does his best work in close range. Landwehr loves pocket fighting & dirty boxing. He is super durable & can keep a silly pace. He is in fatigable and has massive short-range power. He will throw big hooks & uppercuts. He loads up on every shot & when he hurts fighters, he swarms. Landwehr also has nasty knees to the head. Landwehr slowly breaks opponents down & ultimately takes them out. He can struggle to cut the cage off & is a slow starter. He usually has to be taken down or hit a couple times to wake up. He can struggle with faster fighters who can pot shot him. He will walk into shots & has been dropped in multiple fights. Landwehr is extremely durable though & recovers quickly. He was put out with a nasty knee to the chin when he fought Herbert Burns, and you have to wonder when that chin is going to crack. He knows when he needs to get urgent & will fight for your money. Landwehr has 7 KO/TKO’s in 13 wins.
Nate Landwehr isn’t an offensive wrestler. His defensive wrestling is improving, but not the greatest. His aggressiveness allows opponents to get in on his hips & he can give up singles & doubles. Landwehr will look to sprawl, stuff the head, or attack front chokes. When he can lock in a front choke, he will really go for it & force opponents to go to sleep or go to their backs. When he gets top position, he is devastating with ground & pound. He throws with bad intentions & takes fighters out. He will move to dominant positions like the mount or the back & finish the job. Landwehr doesn’t look for submissions & is only looking to do damage with blows. When he does get put on his back he can get held down. He will try to explode up, or belly down into a takedown attempt of his own. In his last match, he showed great toughness battling out of several deep submissions attempts from Herbert Burns & working his way back to his feet. He was taken down very quickly in that fight and had nothing on the mat for Burns. He has no submissions and was submitted one time via rear naked choke. Landwehr fights one way & that’s with reckless abandon. He will come in shape, bring a high pace, pressure forward & look for the kill shot. If he gets a fighter hurt he usually is going to get the finish, and unless they put him out, he won’t stop coming.
Evloev is possibly a future title contender and the only way Landwehr can beat him is on the feet, but most likely by KO because I would still favor Evloev in the striking. Evloev is going to be the much better wrestler here and he should be landing takedowns in every round. I think he dominates this fight whenever it hits the mat, but he can keep it close if not even win it on the feet as well.
I don’t love this fight for DraftKings. Evloev is my pick to win but I think he gets a decision victory and so far, his 3 decision victories he has scored 83, 86, and 70 DK points. I think he has the potential to score more than that in decisions if he is going for more takedowns which I would think he does here. He could also get a KO or submission and score a new high for him with just the bonus. If Landwehr wins, I think it would be a KO or a volume-based decision. At $6.9k I would think he pays that off in a win, I just don’t think he wins. This fight will mostly be a fade for me. If salary isn’t an issue, I don’t hate Evloev and if you need to punt off hoping for a Landwehr upset, I am not against that either. I have not built lineups yet so I have no idea how much of this fight I will have, if I have any at all with 20 lineups or less. Right now, I would lean towards a fade in GPPs and either side being a decent play in cash games.
Winner – Movsar Evloev via Unanimous Decision
Roman Dolidze $8,700 vs John Allen $7,500
Roman Dolidze
Age: 32
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Extreme Couture
From: Georgia
UFC Record: 1-0
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -190
Roman Dolidze had an amazing start to his UFC career. Dolidze went in there and decimated Khadis Ibragimov 4 Months ago. Dolidze is undefeated at 7-0 with five first round knockouts. Dolidze has never been to decision. For a LHW he has decent boxing. He has good slips, head movement, and counters. He likes to come forward and pop opponents with the jab or left hook. He likes to slip & throw the counter lead hook. He has decent head movement, and in the pocket will slip shots & land uppercuts and hooks that have fight ending power. Dolidze landed a big head kick in his last match that dropped and finished his opponent. Dolidze is very willing to just engage in brawls as well and go blow for blow. His propensity to do that will probably get him KO’d eventually. He is a bit stiff in exchanges & was wobbled a couple times in his last fight before he joined the UFC. Dolidze will get wide with overhands & hooks inside, but it makes him dangerous as well. His one fight that went to round three was a war, and he showed really good cardio. He was pressing the whole fight & walking his opponent down. In round three he landed a nasty spinning backfist and finished it off on the ground. Dolidze has finished his last four fights by knockout.
Roman Dolidze is a serious grappler. He is a former ADCC worlds participant, and an aggressive submission fighter. He is a solid wrestler. He has pretty good level changes for a big guy, and a good single. He will push fighters to the fence and chain wrestle. When he can get on top, he’s dangerous. He will go for leg locks, has nice back takes & is a gorilla on top. He will get to dominant positions & rain down ground & pound. He has fallen in love with his striking lately after using his grappling to win his early fights. His first three matches he won via submission with two heel hooks & a rear naked choke. He is still green at 6-0 but is a good prospect.
John Allan
Age: 27
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: Chute Boxe Monstro
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0-1
Last Fought: 1 Year 4 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: 1NC
Betting Odds: +165
John Allan is making his comeback following his no contest against Mike Rodriguez. Allan won the fight in a big upset but failed a USADA test and the win was overturned. Allen hasn’t fought since July of 2019, and it will be interested to see how he looks. Allan likes to pressure opponents & has good cardio. Allan’s last win was very impressive & probably the best performance of his career. He is fast in & out with solid feints. Allan throws heavy low kicks both inside & outside to compliment a fast jab. Allan will try to back opponents to the cage, work his jab, and combinations off it. He will throw jab, overhand rights, and then throw big hooks in combination. He throws fast punches in the pocket. He can overextend on shots & leaves himself open to be countered, but hits hard. When opponents push him backwards, he can look uncomfortable, but he will throw hard counters to try to back fighters off. He has switched stances a lot in previous fights, but in his last match he didn’t at all. He likes to kick more from southpaw. He has fast round kicks to the legs body & head. He will usually just flick the kicks up without much power, but he will mix in power kicks. Allan will mix elbows into his attacks. He looks like a very strong guy & hard to back up. He trains at Chute Boxe & looks to like to brawl, like most of the fighters from that camp do. If Allan is in good shape, this actually has the makings of a good fight. He will have to be able to eat the power of Dolidze & get inside. In this fight, Allan will have to worry about the wrestling though. Allan has 8 KO/TKOs & has never been finished by strikes.
John Allan is not a good grappler. He allows fighters to get in on his legs easily with traditional wrestling shots. He also is easy to get taken down against the cage. When he gets put on his back, he is very vulnerable. Vinicius Moreira was able to dominate him when he got on top, almost submitting him at the end of the first and then submitting him in the second. Allan isn’t likely to grapple in this fight, but he will use his punches to crash the distance and try to clinch up against the cage. His takedowns really aren’t great, but he was able to take down Mike Rodriguez in the clinch. Allan will look to wrap up the neck. He was submitted with a mounted triangle vs Vinicius Moreira. He will search for arm triangles. Allan has 3 submissions but has been submitted 4 times.
This should be a fun scrap. Both guys like to brawl so either could get caught and knocked out, but Dolidze looks like better fighter everywhere. Allen might be able to win this fight on volume if we see a decision here, but I don’t think we will need the judges here and I’ll take Dolidze by TKO or submission.
Dolidze is my preferred play in all formats. I do think he can finish on the feet or on the ground and he has a -110 ITD line which is the highest on the card. He also scored 109.5 in his debut and if he does that again he will be on the optimal. The worry with him would be that he doesn’t finish and if that is the case, he won’t score high enough to pay off this salary. Allan is more likely to pay off his salary in a decision victory and if this does go to a decision, I would even favor Allan to win. He is in play as well for that reason, plus he can get a KO of his own and possibly break the slate. This is probably a fight I will look to get in half or more of my lineups with Dolidze being maybe double my Allan ownership.
Winner – Roman Dolidze via 1st round Submission
Talia Santos $8,900 vs Montana De La Rosa $7,300
Taila Santos
Age: 27
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Astra Fight Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-1
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -210
Taila Santos looked good the last time we saw her. She was an underdog, but went in there, and basically dominated Molly McCann in all facets of the game. I’m glad we got to see that kind of performance from Santos, because she didn’t show her true skill set in her UFC debut. I feel she had jitters or something going on in that fight. Santos’s record other than on that night is flawless. She is 16-1 overall, and probably will get a ranking next to her name if she beats De La Rosa. Santos maybe hasn’t faced top flight competition, but she holds wins over Gisele Moreira who is good fighter that defeated Karol Rosa, Molly McCann, & Estefani Almeida are solid wins as well. Santos has finished 11 of her 16 wins in the first round. Taila Santos is a very skilled fighter. She is a forward pressure fighter. Santos likes to control the distance behind the jab & hard low kicks. Santos throws nasty jab to low kick combinations. Santos will throw some really nice fast jab, cross or hook, cross combinations. She has no issue just touching opponents, keeping them at bay and just piecing them up. Santos attacks the body very well with front & round kicks. Santos has a good high kick. Santos likes to counter with jab, crosses & check hooks as she moves backward. She has very tight, sharp counters. Santos will pull back with her chin high at times. She’s usually good at sliding just out of range so it doesn’t matter, but if fighters come forward with more than one they might be able to land.
Taila Santos can be controlled in the clinch if fighters can back her to the fence. She spent a large majority of her fight there against Mara Romero Borella. Santos is good at making fighters pay for wanting to get a hold of her. Santos has pretty good control against the cage. She digs underhooks well and keeps good head positioning. Santos dominated the clinch against Molly McCann. Santos will get in the Thai plum & let go with elbows & knees. Santos can wrestle herself. When fighters pressure her, she is good at ducking under & hitting takedowns. Santos has good body locks. In her fight on the contender series she was able to take the back from standing & controlled the rest of the round in that position. That’s her thing when she gets on top. Santos wants to take her opponent’s back & then take their neck. Santos was able to hit a nice body lock and transitioned to the back vs Mara Romero Borella as well. Santos hit multiple body locks in her last fight and used her wrestling and top control to seal the decision. Santos was able to dominate on top. She didn’t get a ton of damage off but was able to keep McCann on her back and moved into some dominant positions. Santos did a good job of attacking the neck when McCann went to stand up and keeping her on her bottom. Mara Romero Borella did lay kind of a blue print to defeat Santos though. Fighters have to crash the space, not let her fight at range, and look to slow her down with grappling. Borella was able to use her strikes to back Santos up, and then take her down against the cage. Santos didn’t really show a lot off her back.
Montana De La Rosa
Age: 25
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Genesis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 4-2
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +175
Montana De La Rosa is making her seventh appearance in the UFC’s octagon. De La Rosa has fared pretty well going 4-2 in those six fights. When you look a bit deeper into it though, the fighters she’s beaten in the UFC are the bottom of the barrel. None of the girls De La Rosa has defeated have winning records in the UFC. Her two losses have come against girls in the top 15, but she was not super competitive. Still 25 years old, De La Rosa has time to evolve and improve. De La Rosa is not a very good striker. She isn’t a great athlete & going to be much slower than Taila Santos. De La Rosa on the feet tries to use her long reach and work behind her jab & lead hook. She will double jab into range for her right hand. She landed a nice counter right hand that dropped Mara Romero Borella. Her straight-right hand & left hook counters keep getting sharper and improving. De La Rosa will throw some low & oblique kicks. De la Rosa will try to throw round & front kicks to the body, along with front leg sidekicks. She will mix in some high kicks. De La Rosa still at times lunges in with her punches and throws very looping overhands. De La Rosa’s boxing probably looked the best it ever has when she faced Vivi Araujo. Araujo was able to make the adjustments though, started feinting to draw out the counters of Montana, and then let go with her own strikes. De La Rosa has improved her head movement. Her defense overall still isn’t that good. Fighters have had a lot of success countering De La Rosa’s jab. Araujo was able to land just about every overhand right she threw. De La Rosa’s face gets busted up easily. Her nose tends to break in a lot of fights. De La Rosa is super heavy on her lead leg and I think that’s going to be a huge issue for her vs Santos. De La Rosa doesn’t have much power & is going to be at a big power disadvantage. Montana has no KO/TKO wins. De La Rosa has been finished by strikes one time.
Montana De La Rosa is going to be looking to get this to the mat. De La Rosa has good timing on her level changes, and a solid top game. De La Rosa does a good job of staying tenacious when she goes for single legs. She will try to use the single to take the back or drive opponents to the cage. De La Rosa will catch kicks & hit takedowns off that as well. De La Rosa uses her frame well in the clinch. She is long & uses that to control fighters against the cage. When she gets the fight to the mat, de la Rosa has great control & it’s hard to get-up from under her. De La Rosa is always looking to take the back & she has pretty good rear naked chokes. De La Rosa will attack armbars from the back mount as well. De La Rosa has seven submission wins. In this matchup I feel she’s going to be much physically weaker than Santos though. That was the issue in her fights with Andrea Lee & Vivi Araujo. They were able to out muscle her & hit takedowns of their own. De La Rosa is super tough though and doesn’t quit on herself. She will push as hard as she can for 15 minutes and always try to win.
Santos looked amazing in her last fight and the only real path for De La Rosa to win this fight is through the mat. De La Rosa can win with a submission or grind out a decision, but she should be at a big disadvantage on the feet and I am not confident she can get this fight to the mat each round. Santos is solid on the mat as well and she could have success there if she is the one looking for takedowns. I see Santos being able to stuff takedowns and win this clearly on the feet, but I do see her landing something hard and having the ref step in for a TKO at some point.
I like Santos for DraftKings because I expect her to go overlooked. I think she is in play for a TKO here because she might be able to stuff takedowns and if De La Rosa is stuck standing, I think she is in trouble. I don’t think Santos scores great if she doesn’t get a finish, but I think the TKO potential is sneaky here and I will go overweight to the field on her. She could even land takedowns of her own because De La Rosa is really only a worry in top control and if she does look for takedowns, she can score higher in a decision victory as well. De La Rosa is in play as well because if she wins it will be grappling heavy. I am not against using her if you see that path to victory having a chance, I just don’t see me investing in it because I think Santos can hang on the ground where I don’t see that being the case with De La Rosa in the striking.
Winner – Talia Santos via 2nd round (T)KO
Gabriel Benitez $8,600 vs Justin Jaynes $7,600
Gabriel Benitez
Age: 32
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: AKA
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 5-4
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -220
Gabriel Benitez will be looking to avoid three consecutive losses when he takes on Justin Jaynes. The veteran has always been a fun fighter to watch, and recently hasn’t performed bad, just came up short. Benitez is coming in here off the loss to Omar Morales, in what was an absolute war. Previous to that Benitez was in there with one of the best FW prospects in the UFC, so he is getting no easy touches. Benitez is staying at 155 lbs here but taking on a guy who is a fellow 145. Gabriel Benitez is a super good striker & really tough. Benitez has 3.5” reach advantage in this fight and tries to stay long. Benitez is a southpaw. He has a really nice jab & one-two. Benitez has sharp punches, and controls range well. He will rip the body with right hooks. Benitez has nasty kicks. He throws brutal low kicks, and round & front kicks to the body. Benitez is tough, durable & definitely packs some power. Gabriel has 7 KO/TKO’s. He has been finished by strikes twice.
Gabriel Benitez is not a grappler. He just has 1 takedown in 8 UFC fights. Benitez’s takedown defense has improved a lot, but it still is questionable. He has been taken down 18 times in 7 UFC fights, and only defends 56% of them. Off his back, he does have very good get-ups & is hard to hold down. When he fought Barzola he was able to stand back up a bunch of times but got taken down 9 times. Benitez does have great guillotines. He will counter takedown attempts with guillotines & jumps on them if he rocks opponents. In this fight I think Jaynes is the better grappler, and Mogley has to be ready to defend some takedown attempts. Benitez has 11 submissions & has been submitted twice. He is a veteran that has good cardio and is always a tough out.
Justin Jaynes
Age: 31
Height: 5’7
Weight: 155
Reach: 67.5”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Nevada
UFC Record: 1-1
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +180
Justin Jaynes almost won his last fight in a fun back & forth affair. Jaynes had Gavin Tucker on the ropes in the first round, almost finishing him with a guillotine, but gassed out and lost the last two rounds. Now Jaynes is moving back up to 155 lbs where he says his cardio will be better. Jaynes’ lone UFC win was at 155 lbs where he went in there and flatlined Frank Camacho very quickly. Lately when Justin Jaynes wins that’s what’s happened. Jaynes’ last five wins were all first round finishes. Jaynes’ striking style is pretty basic. He has good low kicks, forward pressure, and on the inside has vicious power. Jaynes likes to shoot in & close distance with the straight-right hand. When Jaynes gets on the inside, he will switch stances & throw a nice uppercut. That uppercut dropped Gavin Tucker in the first round. Jaynes throws nasty hooks & overhands. Jaynes has good head movement & on the inside will slip rip & return with power shots. He goes to the body well & will mix it up to the body & head with his combos. Jaynes will throw the front knee up the middle. The issue with Jaynes’ striking style is he has a short reach and isn’t a super athlete. He can struggle to get on the inside. Gavin Tucker spent the second and third rounds peppering Jaynes from the outside.
Justin Jaynes is a strong grappler. He is a former college wrestler & has solid Jiu-Jitsu as well. He likes to strike, but when he wants to he can duck under and hit a double leg. In his last fight, he really never shot & when he did it was a bad shot that got reversed in the third round. On top, Jaynes has good control, and good back taking ability. Jaynes will rain down big ground & pound and look for the finish. Jaynes’ takedown defense is pretty solid. He has a nasty guillotine, and front head lock position in general. He almost got Tucker in a guillotine in the first round. He will snap fighters down and control them from there. He is good at using the guillotine to sweep to mount. Justin Jaynes off his back looked weak in his last match. Jaynes was almost submitted with an arm triangle in the first round. He ultimately got submitted with a rear naked choke in the third round. That was the first time Justin Jaynes has been finished in his career. Jaynes has pretty solid cardio, and a fun style to watch. Jaynes has five submission victories.
Jaynes actually opened as the betting favorite in this fight and that would have been a big bet on Benitez if it stayed. Now, the line looks about right with Benitez being around a 2-1 favorite and I do think he is the better fighter anywhere this fight goes. Jaynes might have the wrestling edge and I’d give him the power edge in the opening minutes as well. If Jaynes can’t get that round 1 KO, then I don’t see this fight ending well for him. Jaynes will likely slow down as this fight moves along and the edge will shift more to Benitez the longer this fight goes. He is live for a KO or a submission, but I will take him to get a 30-27 decision.
I like both sides of this fight for DraftKings. Jaynes has more slate breaking ability with a 1st round KO being one of his best paths to victory here and he is only priced at $7.6k. I like him for GPPs, and he feels like a guy I should be overweight to the field on, just in case that KO happens. I am picking Benitez to win this fight though and figuring out what his core will be is difficult. I think he could score from 60-110 DK points in this fight so maybe trying to judge ownership will be a better way of deciding how much Benitez you want. If Benitez is chalky (above 30%), I would rather go underweight. If Benitez is low owned, I would rather go overweight. I am picking him to win a decision which I would think puts him closer to the 60-point side rather than the 110-point ceiling. I think this is a GPP only play on either side though.
Winner – Gabriel Benitez via Unanimous Decision
Jamahal Hill $8,400 vs Ovince Saint Preux $7,800
Jamahal Hill
Age: 29
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 79”
Gym: Black Lions Academy
From: Michigan
UFC Record: 1-0
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -165
Jamahal Hill is getting a big opportunity in just his second fight in the promotion. Hill is moving way up the ladder, and immediately taking on a staple of the division in Ovince St Preux. St Preux is a bit old in the tooth, but still a dangerous fighter & former title challenger. Jamahal Hill has been doing a lot of talking, and he gets the chance to prove to everyone he is who he says he is on Saturday. Hill is a super high-volume striker. He is a southpaw, but switches stances. Hill is long & fast and uses that to his advantage very well. Hill is a sniper that has extremely accurate jabs and straight punches. He has a really nice lead right hook, straight-left combination. He will throw nice rear uppercuts to start combinations. He is very good at attacking the body with punches and goes up and down very effectively. Hill throws nasty round & front kicks to the body as well. Hill attacks the body constantly and tries to melt opponents. Hill will use nice step-in knees to the body. He has good high kicks. Hill’s accuracy is elite & he doesn’t waste many strikes. Hill landed over 100 significant strikes in his last match. Hill’s striking defense is not the greatest. He is good at pull countering & has a long reach, and it can make fighters nervous to throw at him. Hill does lean back & float his chin. He ate some decent shots vs Darko Stosic and was dropped by Dequan Townsend. Against explosive guys who can close the distance quickly, he may struggle a bit. He can be a bit heavy on his lead leg and eat low kicks. Hill is young, improving & very confident. When he gets hurt, he will recover quickly, and get back to pressuring. He is very strong mentally & will be undeterred by adversity. Hill has 4 KO/TKO victories in his career. He hurts a lot of fighters with body shots how he did Abreu. Hill has never been finished by strikes.
Jamahal Hills grappling is a bit of a question mark. He is good in the clinch with knees and will control fighters against the cage. He likes to shoot doubles in space, and chain wrestle against the cage. Hill has good fight IQ, and fights to his opponent’s weaknesses. When he fought Dequan Townsend, although he’s a striker, he took him down & dominated in route to a five-round decision victory. Hill’s defensive wrestling is very questionable. He was taken down six times by Darko Stosic even though he popped up quickly. Hill showed a good get-up game, but OSP is a different animal.
Ovince St. Preux
Age: 37
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 80”
Gym: Knoxville Martial Arts
From: Tennessee
UFC Record: 13-9
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +145
Ovince St Preux will be making his 23rd walk to the octagon when he faces Jamahal Hill on Saturday night. St Preux has fought the who’s who of the division & seen it all. He has become kind of a gate keeper, or tester for blue chip prospects in recent years. He has won some & lost some, but still has proven to be a tough out. Beating Ovince St Preux means something. OSP is long and rangy with a very odd striking style. He has his hands down and will attack from odd angles with unorthodox strikes. He will square up with his opponents a lot which is usually not technically sound, but he it gives him knockout power from both sides and he makes it work. He will explode forward with a nice straight-left hand. Saint Preux has a nice, long right hook. His straight punches blitzes are very fast. Saint Preux has nasty round kicks to the body & head, and good snap kicks. He will throw front leg sidekicks to the body. Sometimes he can look super sloppy. He will really overextend & throw himself off balance. He struggles with fighters who use movement & kick. He also doesn’t throw many combinations and he will just go for one shot kill shots. The issue with Saint Preux’s striking style is he’s lost his reflexes. He still holds his hands low & instead of slipping & ripping or beating opponents to the punch, he is getting tagged clean. Saint Preux has been dropped & hurt in a lot of recent fights. It looks like his speed with his offensive strikes has gone along with some confidence & durability. He will go second a lot & after being hit go into a defensive shell. He was essentially knocked out at the bell vs Dominick Reyes & took some bombs from Nikita Krylov & Oleksiejczuk. Against Krylov, Saint Preux barely landed any strikes whatsoever on the feet & looked stuck in quick sand compared to Krylov. OSP is still very dangerous himself & if he wins, he’s usually finishing the fight. He has 11 career KO/TKO’s including 4 in the UFC.
Saint Preux is a good grappler and has relied much more on that in recent fights. He is a solid wrestler and very physical. He has good double leg takedowns, and strong body locks. Saint Preux can panic wrestle at times & leave his head inside to be guillotined. He was put to sleep by Ilir Latifi with a guillotine. He is good in the clinch and can control fighters against the fence. He has good knees to the body and short punches and elbows. He can leave too much space in the clinch & get hit with big punches & elbows himself. On top, OSP is once again very unorthodox. He has a calf slicer, and 4 Von Flue chokes. He was able to take down Krylov in round one of his rematch and take the mount. Saint Preux has excellent arm locks. He got a straight armbar on Tyson Pedro. Saint Preux cares more about submission than position & fighters are able to scramble back to their feet on him if they avoid the sub. His takedown defense is very good. He is super hard to takedown in space and does a great job of getting his back to the fence where he has great takedown defense. OSP has great wrist control and will get very wide making it hard for fighters to clamp their hands together. He will reverse takedowns with switches & the whizzer & is very aggressive in top position. He defended 7 out of 8 of Corey Anderson’s takedowns, and eventually finished him with a head kick. If he does get taken down, he has a great get-up game, and is super hard to hold down. When fighters can cement position on him he has issues though. He allows opponents to move to dominant positions & looked to quit when taken down in his last match. He was almost immediately mounted, gave his back & was submitted by rear naked choke. OSP was rear naked choked by Glover Teixeira as well. Saint Preux does have 7 UFC submissions & 9 overall in his career. Saint Preux has been submitted 3 times. All OSP’s fights are entertaining & he is a kill or be killed fighter. In 20 UFC fights he has gone to decision just 6 times. Saint Preux has finished 11 of his 13 UFC wins.
Hill is the upcoming prospect and OSP is the old vet who has been around a while. I was hoping we would see a better line on Hill from not as many people knowing of him but that is not the case. I don’t see any real value in this line because Hill could be in a lot of trouble if this fight hits the mat and OSP is solid on the feet as well. I do give Hill the striking advantage though and I think he does get a KO at some point. I just don’t feel great about the line if he doesn’t get that KO.
This is another fight I like both sides of on DraftKings. Hill is my preferred play though, and on average he lands more than 3x the significant strikes as OSP does at 7.9 compared to 2.64 per minute. I think he can score well in any win if he has that volume. My worries would be that he is put on his back against the mat or the cage for periods of time where he isn’t scoring, gets submitted, or even respects the power of OSP on the feet too much and doesn’t throw his typical volume. I do like Hill a good bit in GPPs, but those worries are stopping me from making him a core play. OSP is very in play as well because of that submission potential. He could also get a KO on the feet with this being Hill’s toughest striking fight to date. I want this fight in more than half of my lineups and Hill is the guy I would rather target in SE and 3-entry max contests. I don’t think I would touch this fight in cash games though so GPP only.
Winner – Jamahal Hill via 1st round (T)KO
Marvin Vettori $8,200 vs Jack Hermansson $8,000
Marvin Vettori
Age: 27
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Italy
UFC Record: 5-2-1
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five:
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -140
Marvin Vettori is back a little quicker than expected. He was scheduled to face Jacare Souza in a couple weeks, but accepted the short notice call & main event slot vs Jack Hermansson. This is Vettori’s first main event & a pivotal fight in his career trajectory. A win here would entrench Vettori as a top ten fighter. Marvin Vettori is a southpaw, forward pressure striker. He is very durable and is willing to take a shot to give one and has good head movement. He is explosive & good at touching opponents with his jab to create combinations. He will double, and even triple up on the jab. He will use the jab to start straight punch flurries. He will close the distance with 5-10 punch combinations. In close range, he has nice hooks & uppercuts. He has good head movement & slips & rips in the pocket well. He is very good at returning after getting hit in the pocket. He is extremely durable & if opponents exchange, he will usually be the winner of it. Vettori doesn’t throw many kicks, but he has very dangerous head kicks. He isn’t overly technical with his striking, but he just doesn’t give opponents a chance to breathe. He is constantly walking his opponent down & making fighters go backwards. When he lands, he is coming forward with more than one & forcing them to be on the defensive. If they try to get in the clinch or on the inside, he will let his hands go & throw punches in bunches and is always willing to trade. Very technical opponents who are able to time his entries as he crashes the distance may be able to finesse him. Israel Adesanya was able to hit Vettori with some well-timed counters as he tried to come forward & made him much more gun shy. Vettori also took some pretty heavy leg kicks against Cezar Ferreira. Vettori has enough power to keep opponents honest, but not fight ending power. He is definitely a volume guy. Vettori has just two career KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished in his career.
Vettori is well rounded & really showed off his grappling in his last match. Vettori has good single & double leg takedowns. He has good timing on the shots & catches kicks well. His cardio is top notch & when opponents stand up he is right back on them. In the clinch, he will attack with nice knees, short hooks & uppercuts. He has close range power. In top position, he has great control & will pass to dominant positions. He likes to throw some short elbows, hammerfists & look to move to side control or full mount. He was able to control Adesanya from side control for a couple minutes, and mount Ferreira. He has good back takes & will look to lock in rear naked chokes. His takedown defense is very good. He has good balance & digs double underhooks well. He was able to defend the vaunted double leg of Ferreira, dig the underhooks & put his back against the cage. He has fought high level BJJ fighters like Antonio Carlos Junior & held his own in the grappling. He will also counter takedown attempts with kimuras. If he is taken down, he is hard to hold down & will attack off his back. He will look for sweeps & submissions from inside his guard. Vettori has 9 submission victories. Vettori has fought some high-level opponents and is quietly building a solid resume.
Jack Hermansson
Age: 32
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 77.5”
Gym: Frontline Academy
From: Sweden
UFC Record: 8-3
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +120
Jack Hermansson got back in the win column his last fight, taking out the tough Kelvin Gastelum in the first round. Hermansson has been hovering around that top 10, top 5 for a while now. He needs to get the win over Vettori here to maintain his position. Hermansson can’t let this be a letdown spot. He was initially going to face Darren Till, which was a huge fight that could have moved him up the rankings. He then was scheduled to fight Kevin Holland, who has been on a tear this year. Now he’s getting his third opponent for this date in Marvin Vettori. Hermansson needs to keep his concentration high, and not overlook Vettori. Hermansson arguably has the best movement in the entire MW division. Hermansson is extremely light on his feet, very fast in & out, has great forward pressure & lateral movement. Hermansson tends to start a lot of fights by putting pressure on opponents, showing them his movement & speed, hitting & not getting hit. Hermansson has a nasty jab. He will throw really nice one-twos right down the pipe. He has a nasty left hook, and really nice right uppercut. Hermansson will throw most of his shots straight & sharp. When Hermansson gets his jab going, he will up the volume & keep it right in opponents’ faces. He has very fluid hand combinations. His pressure along with his volume melts a lot of opponents. Hermansson was able to work behind the jab all day on Souza and stunned him multiple times with uppercuts & straight punch combinations. He was able to hit & move giving new angles & not allowing Souza to get a beat on him. Hermansson has very fluid kicks. He will throw a lot of oblique & leg kicks. He has nasty front & round kicks to the body. He will throw some round kicks to the head also, but much less. Hermansson has a nasty flying knee that he has great timing on. Hermansson can be a little vulnerable on the feet when he gets stationary. He tends to just use a high guard to defend, and opponents are able to dig to the body, and sometimes land uppercuts or overhands around his guard. When Hermansson was knocked out vs Thiago Santos, he was hurt, and backed up in a straight line, which led to him being unloaded on & finished. Now that Hermansson has the experience of a five-round fight I expect him to look even better. Hermansson doesn’t throw many strikes with fight ending intentions. He prefers to touch & move and keep the volume high. He does have pop in his punches but finishes most fights on the ground. Hermansson has 11 KO/TKO finishes. He has been finished by strikes just one time.
Jack Hermansson is a strong wrestler with elite skills on the mat. Hermansson proved that in his match vs Jacare Souza. Hermansson was almost able to submit Souza with his signature guillotine choke. When Hermansson gets the guillotine against most fighters the fight is over. Previously to the Souza fight, he had finished two fights via guillotine in the first round. Hermansson is tall with a long reach for the division & uses that very well in the clinch. He will dig double underhooks & slam knees into opponent’s mid-section. He has nice trip takedowns and will circle to the back from standing position & land suplexes. Most of his takedowns come in space off his movement. His ability to move in & out & land opens opportunities for singles & doubles. Hermansson was able to land several takedowns against Jacare Souza and control him from top position which is easier said than done. Later in the fight we did see Hermansson get denied on a few takedowns & shot some from too far out. When Hermansson does take top position, he is very good. He has great control & devastating ground & pound. Against most fighters he is able to advance position, usually taking the back & finishing the fight with shots. Against Jacare Souza, Hermansson showed the ability to stay safe & active inside Souza’s guard & hold him down for large portions of rounds. If Hermansson is able & willing to do that vs Souza, I don’t see many fighters he wouldn’t be able to do it against. Hermansson has very strong takedown defense & it’s hard to get in on his hips. In one of the few fights he was taken down, he did get submitted by Cezar Ferreira. Thales Leites did muscle him around a bit in the clinch also. Hermansson was reversed vs Kelvin Gastelum but showed a good game off his back quickly getting a leg lock. Hermansson has 7 submissions and has been submitted twice. Hermansson’s cardio & volume is elite.
Hermansson has had two opponents pull out of this fight and Vettori is stepping up on about a week notice to fill in. I was expecting him to be a slight underdog here and I might have been interested in him if so, but he is the favorite in a 5-round fight on a weeks’ notice and I can’t put my money on him as a favorite. I give Vettori the edge on the feet and Hermansson the edge on the mat. However, I think the biggest edge in this fight would be Hermansson in top control on the ground and he is the one that has been training for 5-rounds. He could get knocked out or outstruck in a decision, but this is dog or pass for me so Hermansson is going to be the pick and I think he can keep it close on the feet and mix in takedowns to put his stamp on rounds. I also think he is live for the submission or GNP finish. If this does go all 25-minutes I see this being 48-47 either way.
This is going to be an all-in fight for me because it is 5-rounds, and it is the mid-range fight of the week. I have a hard time seeing the winner not score more than 10x and I think for it to be off the optimal we would just need 6 finishes in other fights that score 100+ and the winner of this fight doesn’t crack the 100 mark. If you want to be contrarian you can fade this fight because it will be in the majority of lineups, I just probably end up with this fight in every lineup I build. Hermansson is my preferred play of the two though because I am picking him to win and he has never had a UFC win that wouldn’t have 10x’d his $8k salary here. He has 5 wins with 100 or more DK points and his high is 143. That ceiling is insane, and he is an underdog. I don’t see him putting up that score against Vettori, but I do think he can finish this fight and score 100+. Vettori is in play as well but I am less confident in him scoring 100+ and I think he would need a KO for that to happen. I am going to take more of a stand on Hermansson here though and I will probably lean 70/30% in favor of the Joker. I would stack this fight in cash games though because it is too close of a fight to take the chance and you just want others to make the mistake of playing the wrong guy solo.
Winner – Jack Hermansson via 4th round Submission
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown & be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building & I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend & enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on Twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks & predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice & fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on Twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: BigMarleyMMA.com
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