BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC Vegas 15 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. This isn’t the greatest card but DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $20 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $350k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games & look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience & you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player & it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups & 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights, & hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Luke Sanders $8,400 vs Nate Maness $7,800
Luke Sanders
Age: 34
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 71”
Gym: Fight Ready MMA
From: Tennessee
UFC Record: 3-3
Last Fought: 1 Year 9 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -145
Luke Sanders is back & returning after almost two years away from the sport. He pulled out of a fight in August against Chris Gutierrez for undisclosed reasons. Luke Sanders has been up & down in his UFC career. He is 3-3 and coming off a knockout win over Renan Barao. Sanders is an aggressive southpaw. He will have the speed advantage in this fight. Sanders likes to keep a wide stance, stay light on his feet, and bounces in & out of range well. Sanders is good at constantly faking & feinting as he looks to enter range to disguise his blitz attacks. Sanders is a bit wild on the feet. He likes to enter range with big overhands. Sanders throws a really wide, lead hook followed by straight punches. He will trade wild hooks in the pocket. Although Sanders has the speed edge in this fight, he’s less technical and less powerful. Maness has to be careful too though because Sanders can crack. Sanders doesn’t kick a lot, but he has a good right kick to the body & head. Sanders has good forward pressure as well. Sanders will just open up & get very wild when he closes the distance though. His striking defense is very bad, and he doesn’t respect the power of his opponents which has gotten him in trouble in the past. Luke Sanders was caught & knocked out by Andre Soukhamthath by doing this. Sanders is coming off the best win of his career though, by KO/TKO’S & has seven career knockouts.
Luke Sanders doesn’t look to wrestle in fights. In six UFC fights, Sanders has just one takedown. In this fight I do feel it’s imperative that Sanders mixes it up. Luke Sanders is good at pressuring & backing fighters to the cage. When he does that against Maness, he should try to clinch up & control him. If he can get some good control time in the clinch every round that could go a long way to him securing the fight. Sanders when he does shoot takedowns, usually attacks the single leg. Sanders showed good ground & pound when he got Iuri Alcantara to the mat and is aggressive in top position. Sanders has good takedown defense also, but I don’t think he will have to worry about takedowns here. Sanders has been finished in all three of his losses & two of those have come by leg locks. He seems to struggle with leg attack submissions. Sanders has just two submissions. He is only going to submit someone if he can knock them down first. Sanders’ cardio is very good.
Nate Maness
Age: 29
Height: 5’10
Weight: 135
Reach: 72”
Gym: Salvation MMA
From: Kentucky
UFC Record: 1-0
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +125
Nate Maness picked up the win in his UFC debut, but it was a very lackluster fight. Maness did take the undefeated record from Johnny Munoz Jr in his debut. Maness also has some solid wins in the TKO’S promotion. Maness is making the drop back down to 135 for this fight, so he should look better. Nate Maness is a switch stance fighter on the feet. He has a good frame for the division at 5’10. He will have the height & reach advantage on most of his opponents. He is four inches taller than Sanders. Maness doesn’t really keep the range very well in his fights though. He doesn’t use the jab. Maness will throw a nice lead hook. He likes to throw the lead hook followed by a straight down the middle. Maness will throw a lot of heavy overhand rights. He likes to throw the overhand right, switch stances after he lands it, and shoot a shot from southpaw. Maness throws a nice little, uppercut shovel hook. He has power in both hands. Maness dropped Jesse Arnett hard with a left cross to win the TKO’S BW title. Maness doesn’t control the center in a lot of his fights. He tends to get backed up & look for the blitz or to time counters. Maness doesn’t have the speed or athleticism to be a good striker at the UFC level in my opinion. Maness’s defense is not the best. He bites really hard on feints also. In his fight with Jesse Arnett & Taylor Lapilus, he looked a step behind in a lot of the striking exchanges. He was able to catch Arnett & knock him out but was knocked out himself against Taylor Lapilus. Lapilus landed a front leg side to the liver that folded Maness. That is Maness’s lone career loss. Nate Maness has four knockouts in his career, three in the first round.
Nate Maness is not an offensive grappler. Maness’s defensive grappling held up in his last fight. Maness was able to defend most of the takedowns of Johnny Munoz Jr who is a decent grappler, and a 145er. Maness was taken down in the first round, & in my opinion, clearly dropped the round after failing to get-up off his back. Munoz was able to control the fight in side control & had a fairly deep kimura attempt that allowed him to transition to the back. Munoz was able to dominate when he got on top. At the end of the first round Munoz was very close to finishing the fight with ground & pound from mount. Maness didn’t show much at all off his back. Maness was controlled against the cage for a long period of time. Maness had to deal with three nut shots in the fight as well but was helped by his opponent getting a point deducted. Nate Maness was able to get a body lock takedown very late in the fight which probably got him the win. He has fought five round fights & has good cardio. Maness has two submissions but isn’t really a big Jiu-Jitsu threat.
This is close. Sanders gets the edge in power, wrestling, and aggression/pace. Maness might be the more technical striker and he has a 5-inch height advantage as well. I also think Maness is probably the better grappler, maybe even if Sanders is the one to land takedowns. I don’t feel good about picking either side here, but I would rather side with the underdog and I think he can submit Sanders if this fight hits the mat, which I think it will.
My favorite thing about this fight is that it is the curtain jerker. I like targeting the curtain jerkers and I might have to get exposure to both sides of this fight. I’d be less interested if this fight was on the middle of the card but if either of them drops 100+ and we don’t have them, then we have the rest of the night knowing we probably don’t have the nuts. Fight Goes To Decision is only -150 here so I would think Sanders is the only one of the two with a chance at a high score in a decision. He is the higher paced fighter and probably more likely to land multiple takedowns. I do think he can be submitted or knocked out though so I have some interest in Maness and he might end up being my preferred play just because he is cheaper. I probably don’t end up with a lot of this fight, but I could see either making 10-15% of my lineups.
Winner – Nate Maness via 3rd round Submission
Su Mudaerji $9,100 vs Malcolm Gordon $7,100
Su Mudaerji
Age: 24
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 72”
Gym: Enbo Fight Club
From: China
UFC Record: 1-1
Last Fought: 1 Year 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -320
Su Mudaerji enters his third UFC fight a huge favorite as he’s set to face the Canadian, Malcolm Gordon. Mudaerji is a fighter who entered the UFC at 22 years old with a lot of potential and flashed some of it in his last match. Mudaerji lost his debut to Louis Smolka but dominated Andre Soukhamthath in his follow up appearance. Mudaerji is another one of these Chinese prospects so I’m sure the UFC will be trying to push him as well if he looks good here. Su Mudaerji is an athletic, southpaw striker. He is extremely athletic with dynamic striking. He also has a great frame for 125 or 135 being very tall and long. He does a good job of using his reach and making fighters fight at his range. He has great forward pressure, and in and out movement. He has a long karate stance and will keep range with nasty sidekicks particularly to the body, but to the head as well. He has a laser for a straight-left hand and is an extremely accurate striker. He has a hands down style and it makes it very hard to see when his punches are coming. He has nice round kicks and spinning kicks to the head. He does a great job of landing a jab, straight-left hand, and pulling fighters into his power. He does a great job of slipping punches and sliding just out of range of opponents’ strikes. He will throw spinning back kicks to the body, and a leg kick to spinning back kick to the head combination. He is a finisher, and when he hurts fighters he is extremely accurate with finishing shots. He can get wild at times with jumping attacks such as flying knees and end up on his back where he is weak. In this fight his striking should be superior to Gordon’s.
Su Mudaerji’s weak point is definitely in the grappling. Mudaerji has been submitted in all four of his losses. In his fight with Louis Smolka, he really struggled to keep Smolka off him. Smolka was able to get inside, dominate the clinch & hit takedowns at will. Mudaerji shows good takedown defense in space, sprawling on double legs, and limp legging out of single legs. Against the cage his takedown defense needs work. He puts his feet close together making it easy for opponents to get double legs. Mudaerji on bottom isn’t the best but will hunt submissions from inside his guard. He has no submissions in his career but will use the submissions to create scrambles. Mudaerji is improving as a grappler, but if Gordon gets this to the mat, he’s definitely in danger. Mudaerji showed solid cardio in his last fight & I think he’s the tougher fighter.
Malcolm Gordon
Age: 30
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 70”
Gym: Adrenaline MMA
From: Canada
UFC Record: 0-1
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +260
Malcolm Gordon looked really bad & had his four-fight winning streak snapped in his UFC debut. He came out flat & was finished by Amir Albazi in the very first round. Seven of Gordon’s last eight fights have actually ended in round one. Gordon is 30 years old, which for the lighter weight classes older than most. He needs to get some momentum going now if he wants to sustain his UFC career. Malcolm Gordon is also usually a natural flyweight & this fight will be up at 135 lbs. Gordon is a very fast fighter. He likes to use a lot of movement on the outside, and pot shot opponents with the straight-right hand. Gordon has sharp, fast punches. He has a really snappy jab and sets a lot of combos up off that. He will double or triple jab his way into range for his straight-right hand. Gordon will start in orthodox with the double jab & then switch stances and shoot the straight-left down the middle as well. Gordon throws a really long lead hook. Gordon definitely has a weak chin. He struggles with forward pressure, and when he gets hit, he doesn’t take it well. He has been finished by strikes in three of his four losses. His offense can look potent at times on the feet & on the ground. Gordon 100% has the power to put his opponents out. Gordon has three KO/TKO’Ss. Gordon has been finished 3 times.
Malcolm Gordon is a solid black belt with skills on bottom and on top. He will likely have a big advantage if he can get this fight to the ground. Gordon will look for some level changes. Gordon is also good at pulling guard & then sweeping to top position. On the ground, Gordon is always hunting the submission. He has good back takes. He will attack guillotines. Gordon will give up position for a submission, but his guard is dangerous, so he can get away with it. Gordon has nasty triangles and armbars from guard. Gordon will attack triangles, armbars or triangle kimuras a lot. He will transition from submission to submission chaining them together until he finds the one that sticks. Malcolm Gordon was taken down with a single leg in his last match & dominated. Albazi was able to pass his guard, mount him and take his back. Albazi eventually locked in a mounted triangle & finished the fight. Gordon has six submission wins.
This should be a striker vs grappler matchup with Mudaerji having a big edge in the striking department. He is the better striker who is more likely to finish and he will also be the striker landing much more volume as well. Gordon didn’t look good at all in his UFC debut, but he was outmatched in the grappling department and I don’t think that is the case here. If he can get this fight to the mat, I think he can have success and maybe get a submission. This is dog or pass for me on the betting line, but the outright pick will be Mudaerji.
I do like this fight for GPPs. FDGTD is -270 so there is a good chance we see a finish here and it should be a KO from Mudaerji or a submission from Gordon. Mudaerji should have a big edge on the feet here and I’d think a high pace as well. If he gets a finish, he probably racks up a decent amount of significant strikes on top of it. He is also a -320 which makes him playable in cash games as well, but I do prefer him in GPPs with his -145 ITD line. I would guess I end up with more Mudaerji lineups in this fight but comparing my ownership to the field, I would think Gordon is my preferred leverage play. Gordon had a tough matchup where he didn’t have the edge in his UFC debut. That is not the case here and all 4 of Mudaerji’s losses have come via submission. Gordon does have a sneaky submission game and I think he is live to lock one up. I like him more for big field GPPs, but he will be in my player pool even if I make 10 or less lineups.
Winner – Su Mudaerji via 2nd round (T)KO
Kai Kamaka $9,200 vs Jonathan Pearce $7,000
Kai Kamaka III
Age: 25
Height: 5’7
Weight: 155
Reach: 69”
Gym: 808 Fight Factory
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 1-0
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -300
Kai Kamaka is taking a risk here in his second UFC appearance. Not only is Kamaka taking a fight on short notice but is also up a weight class. Kamaka has fought most of his career at BW, so he definitely will be undersized here. Kamaka is only 5’7. At LW that might be the shortest guy in the whole division. Kamaka looked good in his debut against Tony Kelley. He dug deep, showed off plus skills everywhere & picked up a unanimous decision victory. Kamaka has been a decision machine since going pro. Seven of his eight wins are decision victories. Kamaka is the way more technical striker. He throws nice, tight boxing combinations. Kamaka has a really nice one-two. He will rip the body with nasty hooks. Kamaka will throw the right hook to the head followed by a lead left hook to the head. Kamaka throws a lot of volume & is a pretty fast guy. Kamaka throws some solid low kicks. He will throw some occasional high kicks, but really is a boxer on the feet. Kamaka is a tough Hawaiian and is willing to stay in the pocket and mix it up. Kamaka is a stationary fighter at times & is hittable himself. His last two fights were wars. Kamaka doesn’t have big power, but he can land clean on Pearce. Kamaka has no knockouts in his career. He has been TKO’d once in his career.
Kai Kamaka is a solid grappler. He has good level changes & he won his last match with the wrestling. Kamaka has good double legs. He shoots singles to push fighters to the fence and then works doubles. When Kamaka gets on top, he is more about control, but he isn’t super dangerous and just rides opponents out. He has no career submissions. Kamaka is a dog & has solid cardio.
Jonathan Pearce
Age: 28
Height: 6’0
Weight: 155
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Tennessee
UFC Record: 0-1
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +250
Jonathan Pearce didn’t have the UFC debut he wanted. Pearce was given a big opportunity in fighting an aging legend in Joe Lauzon in his UFC debut. He couldn’t capitalize on it & was absolutely dominated and finished in the first round. Pearce hasn’t fought in just over a year & should definitely have been hungry to improve after that ass whooping. Pearce was expecting to face a completely different matchup here. He was matched against Sean Woodson, a super long, rangy striker. Now he is facing someone who is 5’7. Jonathan Pearce is a kill or be killed fighter. He has only gone to decision two times & is 1-1 in those fights. Pearce is an aggressive but stiff striker. He throws hard shots though. Pearce has a good one-two. He will throw a nice pull counter uppercut. Pearce throws a decent high kick. Pearce is a dog and will pressure forward & break fighters with his pace. It’s a reckless style, but when he tires opponents out he will wain forward with combos. Pearce is a good finisher. He has seven knockouts in his career. Pearce’s defense is very bad. He doesn’t move his head at all. His defense is just blocking punches with his face. He got finished pretty brutally by Joe Lauzon. That is the only time he’s ever been finished by strikes.
Jonathan Pearce is an aggressive grappler. He looks to close the distance immediately, get ahold of the fighter & take them down. In the clinch, Pearce has pretty good knees & elbows. Pearce has a good double leg. He is very strong & will hit big slams. Pearce will catch kicks and bring it to the ground that way. When Pearce gets it to the ground, he throws nasty ground & pound. He will posture up and unload with strikes. Pearce has quite a few finishes with ground & pound. He isn’t a big submission threat with just one rear naked choke. Pearce has been submitted twice. His cardio & toughness are probably his best attributes.
Pearce looked decent in his regional scene fights but getting dominated and finished in round 1 by an older Joe Lauzon in his UFC debut has me wanting to wait and see with him. Kamaka looked good in his regional footage as well but he looked great in his UFC debut. This line is a bit high and I wouldn’t count Pearce out, but Kamaka is the pick. Aside from wrestling I think he has the edge everywhere here, and maybe even the wrestling as well.
Kamaka is my preferred play here and I like him in all formats. He scored 115 in his UFC debut with 5 takedowns and 114 significant strikes. He should have a big edge on the feet in this matchup as well and he is very live for a KO against a guy who couldn’t even survive Joe Lauzon’s punches. I probably get a decent amount of Kamaka this week, but I do think he will be chalky, and we can get away from him for that reason. Pearce looks decent and I do like his wrestling. It’s just his debut that is really clouding my judgment on him and I do like Kamaka as a prospect. I am not against using Pearce in GPPs but if I make 10 or less lineups, I don’t know that I get there.
Winner – Kai Kamaka via Unanimous Decision
Gina Mazany $8,600 vs Rachel Ostovich $7,600
Gina Mazany
Age: 32
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 68.5”
Gym: Glory MMA
From: Alaska
UFC Record: 1-4
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -135
Gina Mazany has had a rough run in the UFC. Mazany is 1-4 in the UFC. She is making her debut at 125 lbs here, so maybe she will look better. Mazany is training at Glory MMA for this fight. The last time we saw her she was losing in less than one minute against Julia Avila. Mazany has actually been finished in less than two minutes in three of her four UFC losses. Mazany is not the best striker. She is a southpaw. She does have an improved straight-left hand. Mazany will shoot that left cross to the body a lot. She likes to throw the lead hook a lot. Mazany keeps good pressure on opponents and has improved her hands. Mazany will mix in some kicks. She throws a lot of low kicks & will even go high with it. Her kicks are not very good and are telegraphed most of the time. Mazany not only has a weak chin but is very weak to the body. Her defense is not the best. Gina has been finished by strikes in her last two losses. She has two wins early in her career on the Alaskan regional scene.
Gina Mazany is a grinder. Almost all her fights end up having a lot of grappling & clinch exchanges. Mazany is going to be strong at 125 lbs, and I’m sure she will try to dig some girls out by grinding them against the fence. In Mazany’s last two fights, she has been hurt in the clinch & finished. Macy Chiasson hurt her with a knee to the liver, chased her down & face planted her with a big shot. In her last fight, she was hurt in the clinch with a knee to the body again, and then finished with a flurry in less brutal fashion. Mazany’s takedown defense is not very good. She has only been able to defend twenty percent of the takedowns against her in the UFC. Offensively, her lone win in the organization came via grappling. Mazany was able to back Yanan Wu up, get her on the fence, and hit double legs. She got five takedowns in that fight, some control time & ran away with the decision. Mazany was able to hit a couple trip takedowns against Lina Lansberg. Mazany on top doesn’t really pose a ton of danger. She doesn’t have the best top control. Mazany does have two rear naked choke victories on her record. She was submitted herself by Sara McMann. Mazany has the mentality & heart to push hard but does slowdown in fights. Her cardio could definitely be better.
Rachael Ostovich
Age: 29
Height: 5’3
Weight: 125
Reach: 62”
Gym: Team Jesus is Lord
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 1-2
Last Fought: 1 Year 10 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +115
Rachael Ostavich is making her return to the UFC after a long layoff & USADA suspension. Ostavich has a big following for her Instagram and things outside of MMA, but her record overall is sub five hundred at four wins and five losses. Her UFC record is 1 win and 2 losses. Ostavich is definitely the more technical striker. She has the speed advantage, and better footwork. Ostavich has decent movement and stays in & out. Ostavich does a good job of slipping & returning with the lead hook. Ostavich will explode with jab, cross or jab, overhand. Ostavich will feint the level changes & then rip the body or come over the top with an overhand. Ostavich will throws some low kicks, and front kicks up the middle. She has a solid rear leg round kick to the body & head. Ostavich’s defense is really bad. She doesn’t move her head and can get caught clean coming in with shots. A fighter with a good jab will give Ostavich fits.
Rachael Ostavich is a grappler. Her wrestling has been super effective in the UFC. Ostavich has completed 100% of the takedowns she’s attempted. Ostavich hit four takedowns and was really dominating the fight prior to getting caught in an armbar against PVZ. She only needed one takedown to submit Karine Gevorgyan getting the first-round submission. Ostavich actually sets her shots up well with her strikes and has fast level changes. Ostavich is decent in scrambles as well & has solid takedown defense. She was able to take the back of Gevorgyan when she tried to hit a single leg against the cage. Ostavich got too high on the back & was shucked off, but immediately transitioned to the armbar & finished the fight. When Ostavich gets on top, she has solid control. She will hunt for guillotines or arm triangles, but ultimately is looking to take the back most of the time. Ostavich will try to go to the back way too sloppily & get reversed a lot. That’s what happened in her fight with PVZ which led to the armbar. Rachel Ostavich showed really good takedown defense against Montana De La Rosa. De La Rosa got super deep on some takedowns but could never finish any. Ostavich even hit a really nice roll & scramble to take the back in the third round. Ostavich was too high on the back, went for the armbar, and ended up on bottom. From there De La Rosa was able to dominate, take the back & eventually found the rear naked choke. Ostavich has never been taken down in the UFC. Her grappling overall is pretty solid, but she just has bad lapses of judgement on the ground. Ostavich has been submitted three times in her career. Ostavich needs to keep her back off the cage in this fight. I expect Mazany to try to use pressure, volume striking & clinch control to win this fight.
I don’t want to trust either of these ladies with my hard-earned money, but there is no way I would lay juice on either one of them. I think this is closer to a 50/50 fight and Ostovich can win this with a submission or use her grappling to take a decision. This is just dog or pass for me either way and I’ll side with Ostovich for that reason.
Mazany will be a fade for me this week just because of her price. I’d say she does have more ways to win this fight, but I don’t see a high score coming from her, so I am just X’ing her out of my player pool. She should be very low owned so that would be the only reason I would want to use her and maybe she can get a finish. Ostovich is my preferred play and I think she can win this fight on the mat with a submission where she can score well as a dog. If she wins a decision, then she probably won’t score highly but I would still think she is around 10x. I probably will get exposure to Ostovich this weekend and I think she is an OK cash play as well with this expected to go all 15-minutes.
Winner – Rachel Ostovich via 2nd round Submission
Martin Day $8,800 vs Anderson Dos Santos $7,400
Martin Day
Age: 32
Height: 5’10
Weight: 135
Reach: 70”
Gym: Hawaii Elite MMA
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 0-2
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -155
Martin Day is looking to rebound from an 0-2 UFC start. He most recently fought in July and was knocked out by Davey Grant. Day is an older BW at 32 years old, but still younger than his opponent Anderson Dos Santos. Martin Day will also hold a huge five-inch height advantage over Dos Santos. Day is definitely the better all-around striker. His chin is questionable, but his technique is crisper. Martin Day is a good, rangy striker. He is very creative & lets it all go in there. Day has very fast hands. He throws some really nasty jabs, and straight punch combinations. Day throws peppering shots in combination that stun fighters. Day will go to the body very well. He likes to throw straight-rights to the body to left hooks to the head. He will throw some nasty hooks downstairs as well. Day switches stances, has great movement, pull counters and is just very slick. He has nice kicks as well; Heavy calf kicks, as well as good, lead leg sidekicks to the body & head. He has snappy front kicks up the middle. He will throw round kicks to the body & head with both legs. He loves throwing spinning hook kicks. Day throws spinning backfists, superman punches, flying knees, elbows you name it. He is super dynamic. Day does play with his hands down, and sometimes can go to the well with the same attacks too much. If fighters can catch him mid kick or spin & counter, he can be hurt. He opened up & ate a clean left hook his last fight. Day was dropped in the third round by Pingyuan Liu as well after throwing a naked kick. Day has been KO’d twice in his career. He has four KO’s himself.
Martin Days grappling is his weak point, but he is clearly improving. Day has good distance control and is a fast twitch fighter so he’s hard to get inside on. Fighters tend to have to take him down by catching his kicks or against the fence. Day has realized that & really improved his takedown defense against the cage. He always locks a strong whizzer and keeps a wide base. He will limp leg out of single legs well. Day is getting better with his takedown defense in the clinch also. He has great balance. He was able to defend all the takedown attempts of Pingyuan Liu. Day even hit a nice kouchi gari on Liu in the fight. Day doesn’t really like being on top though. He will land a couple elbows or punches and will be back to his feet. He did a good job of just standing up whenever Liu pulled guard in his last fight. Day does have those long arms, and a couple guillotines on his record. He did attempt a darce in his last fight. Day showed good submission defense, staying calm and surviving two deep choke attempts. He has never been submitted in his career. Martin Day still isn’t the best on the ground and did give his back after being dropped in the third round. He lost his fight on the Contender Series via being out grappled. If fighters beat Martin Day usually it will be because they out-grappled him. Martin Day does slow down a little bit in the third round, but overall, traditionally as a little guy can definitely bring it three rounds. I’m sure he will be hungry after his long layoff & close decision loss in his debut.
Anderson dos Santos
Age: 35
Height: 5’5
Weight: 135
Reach: 70”
Gym: Babuino Gold Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-2
Last Fought: 1 Year 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +135
Anderson Dos Santos has also started his UFC career 0-2. He is 35 years old and hasn’t fought in almost two years. Anderson Dos Santos is a hardnosed grappler who can bang. Dos Santos is dangerous Muay Thai striker. He likes to plant his feet in the center, and wing. He has fast hands and throws all his shots full power. He throws very little jabs or setups, instead using counter hooks and straight punches. He has a nasty right hook, and a very nice check left hook. His straight-right hand has big power, and he dropped Ricky Simon with it, and choked him out. He has no problem throwing down in the pocket and is calm in a war. He has very fast hand speed & his straights & hooks are dangerous. He will rarely throw kicks, but he will throw the occasional leg kick. He doesn’t move his head much & is an emotional fighter. When he gets hit, he wants to get it back & doesn’t have the best defense. Against Martin Day, he needs to be able to blend his game & use those times he can goad Day into trading with a level change. He can get clipped as he moves into range, but he has a good chin and will continue to press forward. He has great cardio & will constantly force opponents to fight on their back foot. His style will always leave him open to potentially get finished by strikes, but he is a finisher and it makes him dangerous as well. He has 5 KO/TKO’s and will drop and finish fighters also. He has been finished 3 times via KO/TKO’s himself.
Dos Santos is a good grappler and has good clinch control. He does a good job of using straight punches to close the distance & get in on double legs against the cage. He will dig an underhook, and land knees while trying to dump his opponent to one side or take the back standing as well. He will throw nice, sneaky elbows & punches off the break that can stun fighters. Dos Santos is good on top. He will look to move the mount & has heavy ground & pound from there. He will get a high guard & has great balance & control in the mount. He will force opponents to give their backs & get the RNC. He has a very good rear naked choke. If he can take top position, which I feel he should try to do, I think he will have a big advantage in top position. I don’t think Day will be able to get-up even if doesn’t get submitted. He has 11 submissions and has only been submitted one time.
These guys are both 0-2 in the UFC, so the loser probably gets their walking papers. Day is going to be the better overall striker here. He is 5-inches taller with a 3-inch reach advantage and on average he lands double the significant strikes per minute compared to Dos Santos. Dos Santos should be looking to get this fight to the mat and that is where his edge in this fight will be. He isn’t a good wrestler though, so it is hard to be confident in him having grappling success if we don’t know that he can even get the fight to the mat. Day is the pick here and I think he wins 2 rounds with his striking.
This might be a fade fight if I end up making 10 or less lineups this week. I don’t love this card and it’s a hard one to feel confident in many people. I think if Day wins, he most likely gets a decision. I don’t know that he even scores 10x if that is the case. That probably makes Dos Santos my preferred play because if he wins, I think it would be a submission and that would give him a better shot at being on the optimal lineup. GPP only but Dos Santos or pass for me.
Winner – Martin Day via Unanimous Decision
Ashlee Evans-Smith $8,300 vs Norma Dumont $7,900
Ashlee Evans-Smith
Age: 33
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 67.5”
Gym: Black House MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 3-4
Last Fought: 1 Year 9 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -140
Ashlee Evans-Smith has fallen on hard times lately. She hasn’t fought in nearly two years and is 1-3 in her last four fights. Smith is 33 years old & has a bad UFC record of 3 wins & 4 losses. Evans-Smith is a former college wrestler but has preferred to strike in most fights. She likes to throw a lot of one-twos & inside, outside leg kicks. She will throw a double jab, right hook and a straight-right, left hook combination. She will throw round & front kicks to the body. She will throw front kicks & spinning back kicks to the head. She attempted a couple spinning backfists vs Rawlings, but they were very slow. She was doing a better job of throwing in combination to close distance in her last fight. She stands tall & is still stiff as a striker. She isn’t very fast & she doesn’t move her head much. She isn’t much of a standing knockout threat but has 3 TKO’s, mostly on the ground. She has a strong chin, never being finished. She took bombs from Ketlen Viera, who is a powerful 135er.
Ashlee Evans-Smith is a strong wrestler, and good overall grappler. Smith is strong in the clinch, she does a good job of grabbing a single collar clinch & letting shots go. Smith will throw knees & short uppercuts to the body & head. Smith will also throw nice knees to the head. She has strong body lock takedowns & will land directly into side control. Smith has heavy elbows from side control, finishing Veronica Macedo from that position. She also has a solid blast double leg. Smith has a solid top game & can finish fighters with ground & pound. Smith has been submitted twice in her career and has no submissions. She slows down a bit in the later rounds.
Norma Dumont
Age: 30
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Team Rules
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-1
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +120
Norma Dumont entered the UFC undefeated, but had a rude awakening. Dumont moved up to FW & was knocked out badly by Megan Anderson. She’s now making the move back down to 135 & taking on another veteran in Ashlee Evans-Smith. It’s really hard to gauge how good Norma Dumont is. She has only had two fights I could find online. She was landing nice, heavy low kicks, & nice body kicks. Dumont will come in with nice one-twos. She has pretty quick hands. I don’t think she has great boxing defense, nor does she look defensively sound fighting while moving backwards. Dumont got knocked out with a nasty straight shot down the middle that flatlined her.
I haven’t seen very much of Dumont’s grappling either. I have seen her get a couple takedowns in the clinch. She has nice trips & very good throws. In her fight with Megan Anderson, she went for a single leg, it got countered, and she was knocked out shortly after. In top position, Dumont was able to get top mount, rain down shots, forced her opponent to give her back & finished her. Dumont does look pretty strong in top position. Dumont has two career rear naked choke victories. She looks like a solid athlete & has all around skills. She is still very green with only five fights.
There really isn’t much footage available on Dumont and she was knocked out in round 1 of her UFC debut to Megan Anderson. She is still close to 50/50 on the betting line though and it makes me feel like the -120 on Evans-Smith is a trap. She is the fighter that people have heard of fighting a woman who was just knocked out so seems like more of a blind betting spot. From the limited footage I have seen on Dumont, she looks like the more dangerous and aggressive fighter here. I like her kicks a lot and I think she will be the clear better striker. The ground is more of a question mark where either could have success in top control, but I like Dumont to pull off the short upset here, and maybe even by TKO. Evans-Smith is coming up from 125 lbs and Dumont is coming down from 145 to meet in the middle here.
I think this is a sneaky good fight to target in GPPs. I don’t see either fighter getting much ownership and I am willing to roster both, but Dumont is my preferred play. Dumont looks like she will be the aggressor and she has power. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a TKO from Dumont either so that makes me like her even more, but she is already one of my favorite underdog targets because I am picking her to win. Evans-Smith is in play as well because she strikes with volume and she could land some takedowns along the way. Dumont was also knocked out in her last fight so maybe she has a chin issue that Evans-Smith can check. Not likely but I am willing to get a small amount of Evans-Smith this week and Dumont is a dog that I like in all formats and I will look to be overweight on her.
Winner – Norma Dumont via Unanimous Decision
Spike Carlyle $8,900 vs Bill Algeo $7,300
Spike Carlyle
Age: 27
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 71”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 1-1
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -185
The enigmatic Spike Carlyle makes his return looking to give the fans another show. Carlyle has gone 1-1 so far in his UFC career, but already has built kind of a cult following. Carlyle has a very odd personality & fighting style. He goes balls to the wall & is very fun to watch. Carlyle starts fights like a bat out of hell. Seven of Caryle’s nine wins are first round finishes. When fights do past round one, Spike has just a 2-2 record. Spike is extremely explosive, powerful & athletic, but wild. I almost classify him as a Niko Price type guy. Someone who will have some brutal knockouts but will suffer some as well. Carlyle is not a great striker though. He comes out fast, crashing with punches & throwing a lot of kicks. Spike will hold his hands low, but he throws nice round & front kicks to the body & head. He will crash forward with the left hook & has a nice straight-right hand. Spike landed a nasty spinning backfist in a recent fight that knocked his opponent out. Against Billy Q, he landed a very odd front elbow that kind of knocked down or off balanced Billy. Spike’s defense is not good though & he isn’t a UFC level striker. His hands are completely down & his wildness will cost him at the higher level. When he lands, he hits hard, but he is just far too hittable.
Spike Carlyle is a pretty strong guy, and an aggressive grappler. He loves the single leg, and when he can get in is very strong. He will elevate and slam opponents. Carlyle loves to scramble and will jump on submissions. He will pull guard on guillotines, goes for armbars, triangles and is willing to give up position for submission. Carlyle when he can get to dominant positions is ruthless. He will unload with vicious ground & pound like we saw in his last match & finish the fight. Carlyle likes to take the back & flatten opponents out while looking for ground & pound and rear naked chokes. Being too aggressive and going for submissions can get him in trouble at times. Off his back, he isn’t very technical, and just explodes to stand up or sweep. Against a black belt like Billy Q, he had trouble doing much off his back. In Spike’s last match he landed a sick elbow when his opponent went for the takedown that stunned him before finishing the fight. He has short range power and fighters have to be careful. Carlyle has three rear naked choke victories and a lot of ground & pound wins. He is a finisher, finishing all his fights but one. Carlyle’s cardio looks bad in later rounds. He needs to get the job done early here in my opinion.
Bill Algeo
Age: 31
Height: 6’0
Weight: 145
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: Algeo MMA & Kickboxing
From: Pennsylvania
UFC Record: 0-1
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +160
Bill Algeo raised his stock in his UFC debut. Even in a loss, he went to war on short notice with a legend in Ricardo Lamas. The fight was close, and Algeo almost pulled off the upset. Algeo will be looking to spring the upset in this one & earn his first UFC win. Algeo definitely is the veteran in this spot. He has fought much better guys and has many more fights. Bill Algeo is mobile, light on his feet, long & tall for the division. He is going to have around a three-inch height & reach advantage over Carlyle. He utilizes a sideways stance, and a lot of fakes, feints, and herky jerky movements. He will switch stances & uses a lot of kicks. He has nice low kicks. He will try to use a jab at times but doesn’t throw it much. His boxing is not very good, but he will try to land pull counter straight punches. He will trade some hooks inside. Algeo is much more dangerous with his legs though. He has nice knees; Front knees up the middle to the head & body. He landed a nasty front kick to the face against Lamas that almost knocked him out. Algeo will mix in some flying knees. He has a really nice fast round kick to the head. Algeo will look for sidekicks to the body & head. He has nice spinning kicks. Algeo likes to start combinations with high kicks & ends combinations with spinning kicks. He is creative & not a bad striker. Algeo doesn’t really hit very hard unless he can just land a flush kick or knee to the jaw. His hands don’t pack much power. Algeo has three knockouts in his career. Defensively, Algeo is not good at all. He holds his hands totally down, and his chin is right in the air. When fighters throw punches against him, he likes to lean back to defend them instead of moving his feet. Fighters who can put combinations together can land & land often on Algeo. In Algeo’s fight with Brendan Loughnane on the contender series, he was out struck rather easily. Algeo is really tough & has never been finished by strikes.
Bill Algeo is a solid grappler. He will mix it up & look for takedowns. Algeo has a solid single leg takedown. Against the cage he will control in the clinch & chain wrestle. Algeo really likes the head & arm takedown. He will land right in that kesa gatame position & go to work. It is a dangerous takedown because fighters can take the back, but I’ve seen Algeo hit it many times. On top, Algeo has fairly good control, and rear naked chokes. He has six career submissions, five of which are rear nakeds. Algeo has been submitted twice, but early in his career. Algeo has not been finished since 2014. Algeo’s cardio is not bad, but not great. He slows down a bit but can push through.
Spike Carlyle looks like one of the more dangerous 1st round fighters in the UFC. The issue is that if he doesn’t get the finish in that round he starts to gas and the longer the fight goes the more it fades away from him. I think that is how it will look here as well. He should have a big edge in his strength and grappling and he probably wins round 1 clearly and maybe finishes. If Algeo makes it past round 1, I like him to start taking this fight over and get the late finish or a decision win. A draw (+6000) is also possible with a 10-8 first to Carlyle and two 10-9’s to Algeo.
I like both sides of this fight. Carlyle is always live for a 1st round finish so 100+ is very in play for him here and I do want exposure. He might even be my preferred play because of that ceiling, even though I am picking him to lose. Aside from Blaydes, I think Carlyle has the highest ceiling on the card so no issues if you want him as a core play. I think if Algeo makes it out of round 1 the fight shifts to his favor though and that is why I picked him here. I don’t know that he scores well though, especially if he is on his back most of the first. He is an underdog I like so he probably still makes lineups if I make 10 or less, but this is a GPP only play because he could score close to 0 if he is finished early. I do think Algeo can score well if he gets a finish in rounds 2 or 3 and I think both are possible so that is why I like him here and I think he is one of the more live underdogs on the card.
Winner – Bill Algeo via Unanimous Decision
Miguel Baeza $8,700 vs Takashi Sato $7,700
Miguel Baeza
Age: 28
Height: 6’2
Weight: 170
Reach: 74.5”
Gym: MMA Masters
From: Florida
UFC Record: 3-0
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W9
Betting Odds: -150
Miguel Baeza is a long, rangy striker, and very athletic. Baeza isn’t really super high volume, but he controls distance and the pace with his speed and ability to pot shot. Baeza will get busy with that low calf kick early also. In his UFC debut that low calf kick won him the fight against Hector Aldana. Baeza is mainly trying to catch his opponent with his pull counter, straight-right hand. He has a fast one-two. Baeza has a really nice counter left hook. He dropped and finished Matt Brown with that shot. On the inside, Baeza doesn’t really offer much & gets a little overwhelmed. He will hold his hands low & try to roll with shots and wait for his opportunity to return but when he does he usually is super wide and wild. At range if he can line fighters up and land that right hand though, he can put them out. He showed that once again vs Matt Brown. Brown got to him early, but he recovered & then took out the vet. Baeza has seven knockouts. As fights go on Baeza does slow down. His hands get lower & he starts to allow opponents to control the center and back him towards the fence. Baeza also is a bit hittable. He has gotten rocked in a couple of his recent fights. He needs to mind his P’s & Q’s in this one against a KO artist like Takashi Sato.
Miguel Baeza isn’t an active grappler. He is a Jiu-Jitsu black belt, but there isn’t a ton of footage of him on tape grappling in MMA. I have seen Baeza hit some nice double leg takedowns. Baeza landed some nice ground & pound inside his opponent’s guard in his last match. He was throwing some elbows & shots over the top along with some tricky uppercuts. Baeza is a quick back tacker. He will trap a wrist when he is on top in guard, land shots, force opponents to turtle & take their backs. He was able to do that after dropping Victor Reyna & locked in a deep rear naked choke. Reyna was able to survive & scramble back to his feet. Reyna took him down with a body lock against the cage also. He went for an anaconda choke late in the fight but has no career submissions. Baeza is a fast twitch guy who I imagine will be hard to take down. In this fight I think it’s going to probably be a stand-up fight. He has good front chokes he will use to defend takedowns.
Takashi Sato
Age: 30
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: Sanford MMA
From: Japan
UFC Record: 2-1
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +130
Takashi Sato is a good striker. He has a wide stance & is very light on his feet. He controls distance extremely well. He has a nasty jab, & a clean, powerful straight-left hand. His punches come fast & he moves extremely fluidly with little to no wasted movement. He does a great job of throwing a jab followed by a left elbow which is nasty. He will attack the body with nasty body shots, straight-left hands & left hooks. He is excellent at just sliding out of the way of strikes & countering with his straight-left or left hook. He has extremely fast hand speed & does a great job of peppering with shots & then mixing in more powerful ones. He does stand a bit upright & has his chin high, so he is there to be hit. His eyes & head movement save him in that regard, because he’s able to see the shots coming, move and counter to discourage his opponents. He also is heavy on his lead leg & is there to be leg kicked. Sato has a good chin but can be hurt. He has gotten rocked on several occasions & knocked out before. Sato has won his last seven fights by knockout. 10 of his 16 wins are first round knockouts just like the one he got his last time out against Jason Witt. Sato was able to go in there and get a win in less than one minute. Sato is 2-1 in the UFC with his one loss coming to a top 15 opponent in Belal Muhammad. Now at Sanford MMA I expect improvements from him as well. He has good recoverability & has only been finished by strikes one time.
Sato has good grappling. He has good body lock & judo throw takedowns. He has a strong top game, he likes to take the back & will get the mount & finish with strikes. He won his last two fights via ground & pound. Sato is a good defensive grappler. He has solid takedown defense & good get-ups. In the clinch, he has strong hips & will even counter with judo throws & big elbows. He is good at springing right back to his feet & not letting opponents get his hips square on the mat. He is good at sprawling & circling to the back himself. Sato impressed me a lot with his grappling ability, even though he got submitted in his fight vs Glaico Franca. He was able to deny a majority of the takedown attempts, stand up very quickly when taken down, and even defended a rear naked choke & had some ground & pound from top control. He was able to takedown Muhammad with a nice body lock. He showed heavy hips and good clinch takedown defense. Muhammad was able to take Sato down as well, and eventually took the back & got a rear naked choke finish. Sato does give up his back a lot & has to be careful with that in this fight. Sato isn’t a submission threat with just two in his career. He has been submitted twice.
I am going to go with Baeza here. I think he gets the small edge everywhere in this fight but if he gets pushed backwards and cracked like he did in his last fight, he is probably going to sleep. He does look like the more dangerous fighter everywhere though and if this goes to a decision, I’d think he would be the one landing more volume. He should also chop Sato’s lead leg down as the fight moves along.
Baeza is my preferred DraftKings play here and I might fade Soto. Soto probably needs a KO to win this fight, but he definitely needs one to score well. That is in play I just don’t see me making enough lineups that I get to him personally. Baeza can win this fight anywhere and I think he is the one more likely to get a KO and score 100+ here. I like his volume a lot more as well, so all the advantages are on his side and his +135 ITD line isn’t too bad. I can see Baeza being a core play for me this weekend and I would say he is my 2nd favorite fighter on the card.
Winner – Miguel Baeza via 1st round (T)KO
Josh Parisian $9,000 vs Parker Porter $7,200
Josh Parisian
Age: 31
Height: 6’4
Weight: 265.5
Reach: 79”
Gym: Scorpion Fighting Systems
From: Michigan
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -200
Josh Parisian is finally getting his opportunity to fight in the UFC after 16 regional scene fights. Parisian has gone through DWCS twice going 2-0 with two knockouts. He has fought on the Ultimate Fighter, and now finally he’s a UFC fighter. Josh Parisian is a huge HW who cuts weight to get to 265, but he’s also sneaky athletic. Parisian has fought super weak competition lately. When you look at Parisian’s record, he has really only defeated two guys with even average records in Chad Johnson and Greg Rebello. If you look at the recent fighters Parisian has defeated as well, they are all super small HW’s. His last opponent, Chad Johnson, was 215 lbs. His opponent previous to that was Marcus Maulding who is 8-12 & an extremely small guy who has fought as low as 170 lbs. Parisian has some very questionable losses also such as a TKO loss in 2017 to the super old Tony Lopez. Parisian on the feet fights like a small guy. Parisian doesn’t have the best hands. He does have a decent jab. He will come forward with the straight or overhand right. Parisian will throw these sharp counter hooks on the inside. Parisian doesn’t have the best boxing defense though. He will just shell up & back up when he gets hit. Marcus Maulding had a lot of success getting on the inside by just being wild and using his speed. He won a lot of the exchanges on the inside. Maulding was actually landing big shots on Parisian against the cage before going for an ill-advised flying knee, slipping, and then being almost immediately finished with ground & pound. It was not a very good performance from Parisian. Parisian throws a ton of kicks. Parisian will open fights with a lot of front & round kicks to the body, and low kicks. Parisian likes to throw straight-rights to spinning kicks to the body. He will also throw rear leg round kicks to the head followed by spinning kicks to the body. On the contender series, he threw that combination ending with the spinning back kick to the body a couple times. After landing several spinning back kicks to the body, when Parisian went to spin, Greg Rebello covered low, and Parisian instead came with a spinning backfist & knocked Rebello out. If you watch Parisian’s fight with Matunga Djikasa, Parisian did struggle with the height & reach a bit. He didn’t throw a lot of volume in that fight and relied on a grappling heavy game plan. In this fight, he’s going to have the significant height & reach advantage, so he should be more comfortable striking.
Josh Parisian is not a grappler in most fights. He has shown the fight IQ to mix it up when he has an advantage there though. Josh Parisian was able to adjust in his fight with Matunga Djikasa after struggling with the range & won with grappling. Parisian got in the clinch, hit a trip takedown, and his opponent looked like a fish out of water off his back. Parisian transitioned to the mount & finished the fight. Parisian took advantage of Maulding when he got on top into mount, finishing him quickly with ground & pound. He did the same thing to Chad Johnson. Parisian is dangerous and aggressive on top. Parisian did get taken down in his fight Maulding. Maulding got in on a double & slammed him. He also had good control on top for a couple minutes and landed some ground & pound. Parisian was eventually able to work his way back up to his feet by using the cage to wall walk. Parisian’s takedown defense held up against Johnson, and he was able to catch Johnson with a hook off the break that hurt him.
Parker Porter
Age: 35
Height: 6’0
Weight: 264.5
Reach: 75”
Gym: Underdog Mixed Martials Arts
From: Connecticut
UFC Record: 0-1
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +170
Parker Porter had an awful showing in his UFC debut. He looked out of shape and not ready for his moment and was knocked out in the first round by Chris Daukaus. Porter has said that for this camp he is in much better shape and is looking to put his best foot forward. On the feet, Porter is primarily a boxer. He will mix some low kicks in there, but he likes to throw the hands. He does have a decent jab and will double jab his way into range. Parker will throw double jab, overhand rights a lot. He gets overhand right happy in fights & really throws that shot a lot. He will wing it from the hip, but it’s not very technical. Parker will try to get inside and slip & return with punches. He landed a left hook on the chin of his last opponent he defeated & knocked him out. Porter will try to counter punch with his boxing by slipping and returning. Parker keeps a pretty good pressure & pace for a HW. He just isn’t the best athlete and is there to be hit. Daukaus landed almost every straight-right hand he threw. Porter definitely has a good chin though. He ate some huge shots from Daukaus, and only got finished after a crazy combo that ended with a devastating knee & he still wasn’t even out. Porter has been finished by strikes three times in his career. Parker has three KO/TKO’s himself.
Parker Porter is a brown belt in Jiu-Jitsu & heavy on top. Porter has some nice knees in the clinch. He gets all his takedowns from the clinch also. Porter will hit trips & also attack the neck to snap opponents down or force them to their backs with the guillotine threat. Parker really isn’t an active seeker of the takedown. He really isn’t an explosive athlete, so he isn’t going to be shooting blast doubles, and it’s hard for him to close the distance. He tends to get it to the mat by reversing his opponents’ takedown attempts & he does have good takedown defense. When Porter does get on top, he is slow, deliberate and methodical. He will slowly work to advance position, soften opponents up with ground & pound and ultimately find a submission. His ground & pound doesn’t look very dangerous whatsoever, but he does have a sub game. He will attack the arms from side control and work kimuras and anacondas. Parker has a nice back take & submissions from there. He has been submitted a couple times early in his career. Porter doesn’t look in the best shape, but he surprisingly has good cardio.
This is a low-level Heavyweight fight, and I wouldn’t want to trust either guy with my money. Porter is coming off one of the worst debut performances I have seen so I was looking at Parisian as a possible parlay option, but he isn’t very good either. Either guy could land a KO or have success in top control, but I do favor Parisian as the pick, just don’t know that there is any value in this betting line.
I absolutely hate this fight, but I think we have to target it in GPPs. I don’t love picking either side here, but we have a -490 FDGTD line so we probably see a knockout. Parisian is the preferred play with his -135 ITD line. I do think he is the better striker and if he gets a 1st or 2nd round TKO then he has a good chance at the optimal. Porter is a big boy as well and if he gets that 1st or 2nd round TKO at his price, he will probably break the slate. So, I need some exposure there as well. I probably won’t even have this fight in half of my total lineups, but I do think we need to take shots on both guys if MMEing.
Winner – Josh Parisian via 1st round (T)KO
Anthony Smith $8,500 vs Devin Clark $7,700
Anthony Smith
Age: 32
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Disorderly Conduct
From: Nebraska
UFC Record: 8-5
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -135
Anthony Smith has fallen back to earth. After starting his LHW career in the UFC 3-0, and earning a title shot, he has lost 3 of his last 4 fights. His last two matchups he’s been absolutely destroyed. Everyone remembers the massacre at the hands of Glover Teixeira, where he literally was handing his teeth to the ref in the middle of the fight and took 3 rounds of 10-8 damage. He followed that up with a 30-26 decision loss to Aleksandar Rakic where he was taken down and controlled for three rounds. Smith is coming back just three months after that fight again. He isn’t giving himself the time to recover physically or mentally from these fights in my opinion. Anthony Smith is a very aggressive, Muay Thai striker, and he has to let it go once again here. Smith has a nice jab & will throw a nice jab, left hook combination. He will throw a nice slip left uppercut & will throw the left hook to the body as well. His lead left hook is something he tends to use a lot. He has good one-twos & his straight-right hand is powerful. He will throw it early & often. He is good at throwing the straight-right hand, expecting the counter, avoiding it & landing a counter left hook or second straight-right. Smith isn’t the fastest with his hand speed & can be countered. He is definitely a better kicker than puncher. Smith throws chopping low kicks, which he needs to use here. Smith has hard body kicks. He likes to throw a left hook, body kick combination. He will also throw a straight-left, body kick combo. He likes to throw front kicks & front knees to the body. Smith does a good job of throwing head kicks after combinations. He will get opponents moving backwards with punching combos & finish with a head kick they don’t see coming. Smith will also throw nice lead elbows, and he throws with bad intentions. Everything he throws he’s trying to do damage & there are not many setup shots in Smith’s game. Smith doesn’t have great defense standing. Like I said, he doesn’t throw many setup shots, and he doesn’t feint much. Fighters can get his timing eventually and catch him as he closes the distance. He can be hit with hard low kicks and doesn’t check kicks. That cost him his last fight. He also will shell up & take shots on his guard rather than moving his feet. He is a tough guy & proved his durability taking some big shots from Volkan Oezdemir & Glover Teixeira. He has been KO/TKO’d 9 times, but only twice since 2011. He had a majority of those TKO losses at the beginning of his career and in his last 29 fights he’s been KO/TKO’d twice. Smith is a killer himself with nasty power. He has 17 KO/TKO’s & has finished all his wins at LHW.
Anthony Smith is good in the clinch & dangerous. He has nasty knees to the legs, body & head, and hard elbows. He was able to finish Rashad Evans with a hard shot in the clinch. Smith isn’t much of an offensive wrestler but will try to time double legs or body locks if he’s being blitzed. He was able to get on top of Oezdemir & finish the fight. He stands tall & has a flat-footed style. Fighters have easily been able to get in on his legs and wrestle him to the mat. He was taken down more than once by Oezdemir, who is a kick boxer. He will get a nice underhook in the clinch, frame and attack with big knees and elbows if he can deny the attempt. He has improved a bit with his stance & doesn’t stand quite as tall, but Glover took him down at will and dominated him. In his match vs Jones, he did a good job of denying the takedown attempts. Smith isn’t bad off his back & actually has some pretty slick BJJ. He has very nice triangles & throws them up very quickly. He will attack with armbars from guard as well. He has good half guard sweeps & will rain down big G&P from top position. He is just too comfortable off his back and that was evident against Rakic. He laid on his back for three rounds and got dominated. Smith did get his guard passed & was dominated a bit on the ground by Oezdemir. He was able to get a nice rear naked choke submission in his last victory. Smith has 13 submissions in his career. He has been submitted 5 times himself, but not in 6 years.
Devin Clark
Age: 30
Height: 6’0
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: Jackson Wink MMA
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 6-4
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +115
Devin Clark is looking to get the biggest win of his career. Following two consecutive wins he is getting to fight a former title challenger in Anthony Smith. Clark is dangerous. He has solid inside, outside leg kicks. He dropped Darko Stosic with a jab. He will throw good one-twos and has a nice straight & overhand right lead. He will close the distance with hook or straight punch combinations. He has a very nice, leaping left hook that he dropped Rakic with. He will throw front & hook kicks to the body & head. He will throw superman punches and likes to throw backfists into an explosive combination to close the distance. When fighters pressure him, he will use spinning backfists to counter. That can get him knockdowns like it did vs Stosic or get him in trouble & knocked out like vs Rakic. He holds his hands low, and sometimes can close the distance hands down with his chin in the air. Clark will also turn his back at times when he gets hit which you never like to see. Clark has gotten more composed. He sticks & moves and uses more lateral movement, & his striking is all basically to set up his entries to get the fight to the ground. He got hurt badly & showed the best composure of his career against Alonzo Menifield to survive and rally for the decision. Clark does have big power & is explosive. He has 3 KO/TKO’s and has been finished by strikes twice.
Devin Clark is a junior college National Wrestling Champion, and I see him trying to get this fight to the mat. Clark has good control in the clinch. He will hold opponents against the cage and work knees & elbows and works well off the breaks. He will throw combinations if an opponent can disengage & then re-clinch. He was able to gas out Stosic by doing this. Clark does a good job feinting his way inside & has a strong double leg. Clark will also close the distance with a straight or an uppercut directly into a takedown attempt. When he gets his hands connected, he takes his opponents down easily & can take them for a ride. He has strong body lock takedowns. Clark’s top control isn’t elite, but it’s not bad. He will trap a wrist from the guard & use it to try to turk the legs & move directly into mount or take the back. He does a good job of getting to the wrestling ride position & throwing down shots. He has the cardio to wrestle for 3 consecutive rounds and will reshoot & re-dump opponents continuously. In his last match, he did have success with his wrestling but ultimately succumbed to a guillotine choke. Devin Clark isn’t a submission threat with just one in his career. He has been submitted twice.
Smith has lost 3 of his last 4 fights but he was fighting the tip top of the division. Now he is getting a big step down here and this is a decent matchup for him. Clark gets the edge in wrestling and power here, but Smith should be better everywhere else. Smith is the better overall striker, and he is the better grappler as well so if Clark does decide to wrestle, he still won’t be safe. Smith is the much more experienced fighter here and he actually has as many losses as Clark has total fights. Smith can win this fight with a KO, sub, or a decision here, but I will take him on the scorecards.
With this being the co-main event on the card I think ownership will come with it. Smith is a pretty big name, so I think people will target him and target against him for the fade. I don’t see Smith scoring highly here unless he gets a knockout or submission and he has a +175 ITD line. I don’t love the Smith play here but I wouldn’t talk you off it because he is the better striker and grappler, and Clark has a suspect chin. I just think it’s more likely he wins a decision and might spend time on his back or against the cage where he isn’t scoring. Clark might even be my preferred play because he is in play for a KO as well because he does have big power, and if he wins a decision it will mean he racked up takedowns and won this fight on the mat. Either way, if Clark wins, I think his chances at the optimal are much better. I will mostly just look to get away from this fight and hope Smith gets a UD.
Winner – Anthony Smith via Unanimous Decision
Curtis Blaydes $9,300 vs Derrick Lewis $6,900
Curtis Blaydes
Age: 29
Height: 6’4
Weight: 261
Reach: 80”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Oklahoma
UFC Record: 10-1-1
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -370
Curtis Blaydes is a big wrestler who trains out of team Elevation. He is improving his striking, and he has much better footwork and feints than he had at the start of his UFC Career. He will throw a lot of jabs and one-twos. He is quick for a heavyweight and will throw some nice body & head kicks. He has a nice left hook, right hook combination. He has a strong overhand right. When he backs opponents to the cage, he will explode with quick punch flurries. He can sometimes retract his punches a little slow and can get countered and clipped. He has a very good chin. He was never hurt badly and took a ton of shots against Ngannou in the first fight, and then survived a knockdown in round 1 against Mark Hunt. He recovers extremely quickly. His right hand is powerful, and if he can land one clean on the chin he can knock a fighter unconscious. He landed a nasty overhand his last fight that knocked out JDS. His speed, footwork, head movement and cardio will be hard for HWs to deal with standing up, and that’s with them knowing Blaydes is always trying to take them down also. Blaydes has 10 KO/TKO’s and has been finished by strikes twice in his career both to Ngannou.
Curtis Blaydes is one of the best HW wrestlers I have ever seen. He is one of the few HWs who are athletic enough to shoot takedowns, and he does an excellent job of waiting until fighters are just a little off balance or a little out of position and blasting an easy double leg. He is much better at closing the distance safely, and timing when to shoot in on fighters, and I don’t see him getting hit coming in nearly as much as the previous fight. He likes to grind in the clinch as well where he will get his opponent to the cage and work short shots while looking to find a takedown. On top, he is vicious. When he can get to dominant positions, he is extremely heavy and has some of the best G&P in the sport. He likes to control from half guard and will rain down powerful elbows. He has no problem controlling on top & just winning the round. He isn’t a submission threat with 0 in his career & has never been submitted. Blaydes has tremendous cardio.
Derrick Lewis
Age: 35
Height: 6’3
Weight: 265
Reach: 79”
Gym: Grind House Fitness
From: Texas
UFC Record: 15-5
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +310
Derrick Lewis is one of the best knockout artists in the UFC. He is a pretty good boxer and can close the distance with powerful combinations. He is very explosive for someone his size and can close the distance extremely quickly. Lewis has a similar style to that of Yoel Romero in terms of fighting in spots. He will be very inactive and look like he is not doing much on the feet at all, and then explode in with a powerful blitz attack and finish the fight. He has a decent jab, and a good very good right hook. He likes to counter with a right hook in the pocket and does a good job of moving his head off center line and landing while making opponents miss. He is very good in the dirty boxing range and has nice, short hooks and uppercuts and can generate knockout power in incredibly short distances. He is surprisingly athletic for a fighter his size and shows that with his bountiful kicking game. He will use an array of kicks, ranging from the front kick to the body, to a switch kick to the head. He can sometimes throw the high kick blind, but it is extremely powerful, and his opponents are forced to respect and block it. Lewis will slam the kick into his opponent’s arms, and if he can knock them off balance, he will explode with a punching combination. Lewis has no problem getting in the pocket and throwing down with fighters and will bite down on the mouth piece and go to war. He is a tough guy and some people say he is a quitter or mentally weak, but I completely disagree. Lewis has been finished by strikes 3 times, but he has a pretty good chin, and the ability to take shots. He is susceptible to body shots but is tough and will battle through it. The bottom line is you always have to be careful with the “Black Beast”. He is the definition of a knockout artist with 16 KO/TKO’s to his name.
Derrick Lewis is an underrated grappler. He is good in the clinch, he does a great job of getting underhooks and digging with big knees to the body. He did this very effectively against Roy Nelson. He is also extremely dangerous in the dirty boxing realm and can generate power in his short hooks and uppercuts that is not normal, and have fighters twitching on the canvas. He will shoot for takedowns. He likes to get double legs against the cage and will occasionally try to get a body lock takedown. He does a good job of defending takedowns, reversing and getting on top himself. Lewis has some of the best G&P in the history of MMA, it is absolutely devastating. He will throw huge hammerfists and elbows, and if he can pass his opponent’s guard into mount then the fight is as good as over. He is extremely heavy and almost impossible to get-up from under. If he gets on top of Blaydes, he could be in trouble. Off his back, he isn’t dangerous, but he has an uncanny ability to just stand up when he wants to. He will just belly down, give his back and stand right up. Most fighters haven’t been able to take his back and or stop him from disengaging the clinch when he stands up, proving just how physically strong Lewis is. He was made to pay for that in his match vs DC getting submitted by rear naked choke. Derrick Lewis has struggled with cardio himself, but still has a lot of late round finishes.
A knockout is probably the only chance for Lewis to win this fight, so if you like him, just bet the TKO prop. Blaydes will be my pick though and on the ML, this is favorite or pass for me. Even in the striking department, I would give Blaydes a small edge, but Lewis will have nothing to offer off his back and Blaydes will put him there multiple times. Lewis is tough, but 5-rounds is a long time to last and he might get put in spots on the mat where he can’t defend himself and the ref steps in. I see this as complete domination for Blaydes personally and I’ll take him to get a GNP stoppage.
I am going to be all-in on Blaydes here. I don’t know that it is the right move, but it is the one I am going to take because I don’t see me even getting to 20 lineups this week. He will be the chalk of the card but it’s chalk I am willing to eat and he has 150+ point upside here. I still have nightmares of going all-in on Blaydes when he went 0-13 in takedowns against Omielanczuk and maybe that can happen again here. I just think he has to be constantly going for takedowns because he doesn’t want to risk the KO shot from Lewis. Lewis is always in play for GPPs so if you think he wins, play him. If he gets the KO as the cheapest guy on the card he will be on the nuts and kill off over half the field with Blaydes lineups. I just see Blaydes mauling him and getting a stoppage at some point and scoring 100+. All-in for me and I do think this is close to an all-in fight in general. However, fading isn’t the worst option because of all the ownership that will be on this fight and if Blaydes can’t get takedowns and he still wins a decision, he won’t score highly and it would be from a lot of holding Lewis against the cage and not scoring. So, if you want to be different and still use popular plays, you can fade this fight.
Winner – Curtis Blaydes via 2nd round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown & be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building & I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend & enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on Twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks & predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice & fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on Twitter at @BigMarley3.
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