BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC Vegas 14 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $350k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games & look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience & you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player & it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups & 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights, & hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Don’Tale Mayes $9,000 vs Roque Martinez $7,200
Don’Tale Mayes
Age: 28
Height: 6’6
Weight: 241
Reach: 81.5”
Gym: Bronx Hill MMA
From: Indiana
UFC Record: 0-2
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -230
Don’Tale Mayes needs a win here as he’s 0-2 to start his tenure in the promotion. Mayes has been submitted in both those fights as well. Mayes is going to have some big advantages in this fight. He has a 9” reach & 6” height advantage. Mayes is actually very athletic & fights like a small guy. He uses a lot of lateral movement & stance switching. He will close the distance with decent straight punches & rear uppercuts. He will throw lead elbows & wide hooks in close range. He throws decent front & round kicks to the body & head. He actually has solid head movement and will duck & roll shots. He likes to use his slips to create openings for his spinning backfists. Mayes used to spin way too much & leave himself susceptible, but he seems to have improved that a bit. He will throw athletic moves like flying knees, jumping kicks, and when he gets confident he will start to flow. Mayes holds his hands low though & is very easy to hit. He throws everything wide in close range & fighters with good striking will definitely knock him out, in my opinion. He doesn’t like being pressured & is very susceptible to low kicks. Mayes doesn’t have the biggest power, but at HW he obviously can knock fighters out. He landed a straight-left hand that dropped his last opponent & led to the finish. Mayes has 4 KO/TKO’s & has been finished once by strikes. Mayes’ cardio is very questionable.
Don’Tale Mayes is to be commended for his improvements in his grappling. He went from having virtually no takedown defense vs Allen Crowder, to being pretty proficient. He was able to defend almost all the takedowns of college wrestler Mohammed Usman. He has gotten better at getting his back to the fence & using that to defend & stand back up. He will get a overhook, create space & throw nice knees to the head. He will throw nice elbows to the side of the head & makes opponents pay for takedown attempts. He will also counter with a kimura. Mayes won’t shoot takedowns, but he has decent sweeps off his back & will take top position with the kimura. In his first two UFC fights he did gas get taken down & submitted. He finished his last two DWCS opponents with ground & pound. Mayes isn’t a big submission threat. He has one submission victory in his career.
Roque Martinez
Age: 34
Height: 5’10
Weight: 258.5
Reach: 72”
Gym: Spike 22
From: Guam
UFC Record: 0-1
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +190
Roque Martinez didn’t show anything in his debut, but it’s hard to blame him. He got put in there with a beast in Alexander Romanov on very short notice. Now with a step down in competition and a bit more time to prepare he should look better here. Martinez is a forward pressure striker with decent boxing. He is very durable, takes one to give one and wants to get on the inside and force exchanges. Martinez is going to have to make it dirty and push the pace to get the win.
Roque Martinez got dominated with grappling in his last match. He was slammed head over heels and eventually submitted. Martinez doesn’t really look to wrestle offensively. In this fight, I doubt he will deal with any grappling from Mayes. Martinez should look to press Mayes against the cage, get him tired and take him down if he can.
Mayes is the better striker here and he is the quicker fighter with an 8-inch height and 9-inch reach advantage. If this fight stays standing, he should be favored. However, I wouldn’t lay over -200 on Mayes against anybody in the UFC. Martinez likes to strike so that could be a worry here, but he should look to get inside and look for takedowns. If he can get takedowns, he might be able to keep Mayes on the mat the rest of the fight and possibly get a GNP finish. I agree with Mayes being favored but this is a dog or pass for me and I will pick Martinez for that reason.
This will probably be a decent fight to target with its -215 FDGTD line. If Mayes wins, I think a KO would be the most likely outcome and that could come in round 1. He does have a +155 ITD line which isn’t bad, so I do like him here even though I am picking him to lose. I actually even have him in my shell lineup right now. He will probably be popular though and I don’t see that being the case with Martinez, and he is live for a KO or submission here, or even a grappling-based decision win. That makes me like Martinez here as well, but he is very hard to trust, and I will end up with more Mayes lineups of the two. GPP only for both sides of this fight though.
Winner – Roque Martinez via 2nd round (T)KO
Tony Gravely $8,700 vs Geraldo de Freitas $7,500
Tony Gravely
Age: 29
Height: 5’5
Weight: 135
Reach: 70”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Florida
UFC Record: 0-1
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -145
Tony Gravely was unsuccessful in his UFC debut, but it was a back & forth fight of the night. Gravely faced another tough competitor in Brett Johns, which was a tough fight for a debut. Gravely was submitted in the third round of the fight. Gravely is a good fighter with a lot of solid wins. Gravely is a former division one college wrestler, & a smart fighter. On the feet, Gravely’s striking is all to get it to the mat. He is very explosive & a strong athlete. Gravely is very fast & really relies on that on the feet. He has nice, straight punch & hook combinations. Gravely will feint level changes to create openings for his blitz combos & uppercuts. Gravely will throw good body kicks also but isn’t much of a kicker. Defensively, Gravely leaves a lot to be desired. He is very upright when he throws punches & looks hittable in exchanges. He can overextend or throw wild punches that put him out of position. He is very composed & doesn’t get rattled. He will be a hard guy to finish with strikes, but I do think someone who can stuff his takedowns will give him issues. Gravely has 6 KO/TKO’s, but mostly due to ground & pound, but he does have power in his hands. Gravely has never been finished by strikes.
Tony Gravely shines in the grappling realm. He has relentless cardio & chain wrestling skills. Gravely likes to establish his wrestling very quickly in fights. He has lighting fast single & double leg entries & gets explosive slams. Gravely is also good at using the entry to get ahold of opponents & push them to the cage if he feels he isn’t going to finish the takedown. He is very physically strong & gets nice body locks there also. In top position, Gravely is very active, and has great passing ability. He will move to dominant positions, chip away, make his opponent work & eventually drown them. Gravely has pretty heavy ground & pound from half guard or mount. He is good at getting to the back & locking in chokes. Gravely can put himself in some bad positions on the ground. When he shoots in on takedowns, sometimes he can leave his head inside & get caught in guillotines. He can get a bit wild with his ground & pound also & give up armbar opportunities. Gravely usually is athletic enough to slam his way out of the position or just find a way out, but he has been submitted 5 times. That shows not only poor submission defense, but poor fight IQ. Gravely has excellent takedown defense. He is very hard to hold down & is an elite scrambler. He did get caught in a guillotine in a scramble fest in his most recent loss to Patrick Mix. Mix looks like a potential world champion though & Gravely had his moments in the fight. Overall Tony Gravely has a great ground game & his pace breaks a lot of guys. He is a welcomed addition to the division & should be able to make some noise.
Geraldo de Freitas
Age: 29
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Brazilian Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-1
Last Fought: 1 Year 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +125
Geraldo de Freitas is looking to bounce back from his first UFC loss. He dropped a close split decision to Chris Gutierrez which could have went either way. This will be the first fight in the United States for de Freitas. De Freitas’ last fight was his first outside of Brazil & he lost in Uruguay. He didn’t perform badly though, but it’s still something to take into account. De Freitas overall is a very tough, scrappy competitor. On the feet, he stands tall, tries to stay loose and fast similar to Jorge Masvidal. De Freitas isn’t nearly that level of athlete though and can still look a little slow & choppy. De Freitas has better hands than kicks. He has a nice jab and good one-two. De Freitas likes to throw the one-two, lean back & throw a check hook to catch opponents as they try to return. De Freitas will throw hard lead hooks, rear uppercut combinations. He was doing a good job in his last match of keeping heavy forward pressure. He is long and when he finds his range he will touch with nice combinations from the outside. De Freitas throws hard, low kicks. He has pretty good round kicks to the body & head, but they are a little slow. De Freitas got his lead leg chewed up by Chris Gutierrez in his last fight but dealt with it better than most. We have seen lesser men be finished by those low kicks, and de Freitas ate them and continued to come forward. He has five losses but has never been finished. de Freitas is not a power puncher with just three career KO/TKO’s.
Geraldo de Freitas is a good grappler. He is a decent wrestler with a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. De Freitas is very good with that up down style. He sets up his takedowns with strikes very well. De Freitas is also a good chain wrestler against the cage. In the clinch he has good offense, although his defensive wrestling hasn’t been tested much throughout his career. In the clinch he has proven to be pretty hard to take down, but I feel with his stance and standing so tall, singles and doubles will be tough for him to defend. Felipe Colares was able to hit a slam double leg against the cage. De Freitas on top isn’t super dangerous & more of a grinder. He can get sloppy and lose position. He loses position a lot by trying to take the back too hastily. De Freitas had a scramble filled fight with Colares. De Freitas can get controlled & gives up his back but is slippery and hard to hold down. He will look for leg locks. De Freitas hasn’t really faced a top grappler though, and some of the positions Chris Gutierrez & Felipe Colares were able to win make me feel a better grappler may have their way. De Freitas has five submissions victories. His cardio is good but oddly, de Freitas’ record in decisions is only 3-5.
Both of these guys love to wrestle. Gravely averages 4.77 takedowns per 15-minutes and de Freitas averages 4. Gravely should have the edge everywhere in this fight though and if the wrestling cancels out then he can win a striking decision or get a knockout. I do think Gravely is the better wrestler though, so he is more likely to land takedowns and it’s hard to find any real advantages aside from height and reach for de Freitas in this matchup.
Both sides of this fight are in play and my preferred side is de Freitas because he is cheaper, and he could rack up takedowns. Either guy could rack up multiple takedowns so that is why they are both in play. However, I just don’t know that we see that in this fight, and it might be on the feet more than we would want. If this fight stays standing, we need a KO from either guy to get a high score and I think it would favor Gravely even more in a decision. I am not loving this fight for DraftKings and I might end up fading it if I make 10 or less lineups. I would use both sides if making more than 20 lineups, but I don’t see me doing that personally this week and I feel like Gravely is going to score ~75 in a win here.
Winner – Tony Gravely via Unanimous Decision
Kanako Murata $8,600 vs Randa Markos $7,600
Kanako Murata
Age: 27
Height: 5’1
Weight: 115
Reach: 62”
Gym: Silverwolf Gym
From: Japan
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 1 Year q
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -175
Kanako Murata enters this spot 11-1 on a 7-fight win streak. She was originally scheduled to fight Livia Souza, but now is arguably getting a higher profile name in Randa Markos. Murata has fought some former UFC fighters, but Markos is easily the best fighter she will have faced. Murata is also coming off a layoff of over a year. At 27 years old that may not be so bad, and she could have improved. Murata is mainly a pure grappler. She has worked on her striking, but it will never be great. Murata is short & has short arms and legs also. She has really improved her footwork though. Murata uses a lot of feints now and is quick in & out. She is a southpaw. Murata does have a nice lead hook. She will land the lead hook & then level change. She will throw some nice hook combos and has a nice front kick to the body. Murata is fast & pretty athletic. She does struggle to get inside at times and can get caught with straight shots down the middle, and a good pressure striker with takedown defense could probably give her a lot of issues. Emily Ducote rocked Murata hard with some straight shots in the fifth round of their title fight. Murata has never been finished by strikes. She looks like she has some power in her hands but doesn’t throw enough to get many knockouts. She has two finishes with strikes in her career.
Kanako Murata is a strong wrestler. She has competed on the Japanese women’s wrestling team & done fairly well. Murata won a gold medal at the Asian wrestling championships. She also took bronze in the Universiade. The Universiade is the biggest competition for wrestling worldwide besides the Olympics. Murata is a grinder. She has good level changes with excellent timing. She has a solid single leg, but her double leg is her best takedown shot. Murata has very good clinch takedowns also and is very powerful. She bullies a lot of girls around. She has good, heavy top control, and is aggressive looking for finishes. She has good ground & pound. When fighters work to stand up, she will grab the front head lock & snap them back down. Her submission defense is good, but she was threatened with some serious armbar attempts against Ducote. Murata has multiple von flue choke finishes. She has multiple chokes she will attack from the front head position as well. Murata doesn’t spend much time on her back. When she was taken down in a fight early in her career, she got submitted with a rear naked choke. That was against Rin Nakai who is a very strong grappler in her own right. It was also a much worse version of Murata than she is today. Murata has four submissions wins in her last five fights. She is a high IQ fighter with solid cardio.
Randa Markos
Age: 35
Height: 5’4
Weight: 115
Reach: 63.5”
Gym: Final Round Training Center
From: Canada
UFC Record: 6-8-1
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +155
Randa Markos is quickly looking to right the wrong from her last fight with Makenzie Dern. Markos showed arguably the worst IQ of any fighter all year jumping into a mundial champions guard. Markos stayed tough for a bit, but Makenzie Dern was able to catch her in an armbar. That was the first time the veteran has lost two fights in a row in her UFC career. If she loses a third she could be on the chopping block. Markos is a tenacious fighter with very good cardio and keeps a steady work rate throughout the fight. She has her lead hand low & is heavy on her lead leg. She uses her front hand to gauge distance and tries to stay loose. She uses a lot of lateral movement, but she doesn’t really set anything up off it, and usually just comes forward in straight lines. She will throw jabs, and double jabs. She will throw straight punches & hooks to close the distance. She will throw overhand rights & left hooks to try to catch opponents coming in. When she is getting pushed back & pressured, she doesn’t do much of anything. She is extremely low output & she hung around on the outside with Gadelha and didn’t do much in her last match. She will bite down at times & throw one-twos or walk through shots to get inside, but not often enough. Markos doesn’t have power & she has had 9 decisions in 11 UFC fights. She has 0 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes.
Randa Markos is a grinder. She is good in the clinch or going for takedowns. She will work in the clinch against the cage and has no problem grinding opponents out there, but she lacks physicality at times and can get taken down herself or controlled against the cage. She will throw overhand rights into body locks. She will try to attack with hooks, back her opponents to the cage & dig an underhook. She will use nice snatch singles to get opponents to the cage. She has good body locks and doubles and will go for hip tosses. On top, she does a good job of getting in dominant positions and landing decent G&P. She will turk the legs & try to move directly into mount. She likes to take mount & has some nice G&P. She also has nice back takes using the double wrist lock. She has struggled with good BJJ players. They have been able to sweep her & put her in submission trouble. Cortney Casey was able to catch an armbar off her back on Markos. In her last fight, she made a terrible mistake of jumping in the guard of Makenzie Dern & was submitted shortly after. Markos off her back isn’t actually bad. She does a good job of scrambling and has good dexterity in her legs. She can take the back in odd positions. She does a good job of when she wins a scramble immediately getting in a dominant position and going to work not letting her opponent rest. She isn’t a huge submission threat, but she has 4 career submissions. She has been submitted three times herself.
I don’t’ know if I will ever pick Markos again after her last fight where she jumped in the guard of probably the best BJJ fighter in WMMA and got submitted easily. I can’t trust her with my money and she only has OK striking and OK wrestling. Murata looks like she is a better striker and a better wrestler. I also like her grappling a lot more as well and could see her locking up a submission here.
Murata is my preferred play here and I don’t have much interest in Markos. I won’t X her out of my player pool since she is cheap, but I won’t force her into any lineups either. Murata is somebody I like in all formats and she could get a lot of points from grappling here and she is live for a submission win. I don’t know how much Murata I will end up with, but I would guess around field weight and if I was just making 3 lineups, I would maybe look to get her in 1 of them. If Markos wins I think she could score near 10x, but I don’t really see any chance at a high score from her and I think she loses so that is why I am not really interested in investing in her at all.
Winner – Kanako Murata via Unanimous Decision
Louis Smolka $8,400 vs Jose Quinonez $7,800
Louis Smolka
Age: 29
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 68.5”
Gym: Team Oyama
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 7-7
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -135
Louis Smolka will be looking to get back in the win column after yet another UFC setback. Smolka has won enough to hang around the UFC a long time, but just isn’t a consistent guy. Smolka is 7-7 in his UFC career. In his second stint with the promotion he is 2-2. Smolka is a fixture in this division though & a tough out. He has always been a kill or be killed fighter, and his last seven fights have not gone to see the scorecards. Smolka has finished fourteen of his sixteen wins overall. In decisions he is just 2-4. Smolka showed some improvements on the feet in his last fight. Smolka is a pressure fighter on the feet and likes to walk down opponents. He likes to throw a check left hook, leg and body kicks. He will throw a jab, straight-right hand. He will throw front kicks to the body, and then try to land a right hook over the top. He has good head kicks. He will throw a lot of straight-right hands. He is slow with his strikes, and fighters are able to see his punches coming and slip them and catch his kicks. He doesn’t have great defense, he will just raise his guard and stand flat footed. He is tough and has a good chin. He will continue to press forward even after he is dropped or bloodied. Smolka isn’t a huge KO threat on the feet, but he has 7 KO/TKO finishes. He has never been finished with strikes himself.
Smolka is a good BJJ practitioner. He is tall and long for the division. He uses his length to get body locks and trip takedowns, and he also will shoot single legs. He did a great job of getting in on the single against Su Mudaerji. He was able to get good timing on a double leg, drove his opponent to the cage & changed it to a single and got him down. Smolka does a good job of using his length in opponent’s guards to posture up and land hard punches. He is good at throwing the legs to the side & moving to side control. He looks to be worried more about control now than he did previously. He is dangerous with submissions, and very good in scrambles. In the past he used to go for a lot of high risk submission attempts & be in scramble fest fights. He now in his last few matches is more worried more about control & G&P before looking for submission. He took a beating against Kyle Estrada, and was able to survive, get a takedown in round two and rain down G&P from mount. He severely hurt Estrada and had a great amount of volume. The fight was stopped between rounds. He also had some great ground & pound against Mudaerji and a slick back take. In his fight against Matt Schnell, he was caught in a triangle & submitted while in top position. He has 7 submissions and has been submitted twice.
Jose Quinonez
Age: 30
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: Alliance MMA
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 5-3
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +115
Jose Quinonez needs to have a good performance here. He was embarrassed by Sean O’Malley & finished in the first round. To me it was the worst performance of Teco’s career, and he may have let the moment get to him. Quinonez has a good UFC record, but the fighters he’s beaten are all suspect. If you look at Teco’s UFC wins almost all those guys are no longer in the UFC. Teco seems like the guy the UFC tests prospects with, or tests fighters they think are fringe UFC level. If they can’t beat Teco they get cut. Quinones is not a great striker. He is light on his feet & has that alliance MMA movement. He will switch stances & throws a lot of feints out there. Teco tries to stay in & out. He has a pretty good jab & nice low kicks. Teco will throw some nice front kicks to the body and has pretty good high kicks. Teco doesn’t really have power. He likes to stick & move. He has only one career TKO. Teco’s defense isn’t the best. Teco throws a lot of naked leg kicks that can get him countered. He also pulls back instead of moving his feet way too much. In boxing range, he is extremely hittable. He seemed to get overwhelmed and just wanted out of there in his last fight with Sean O’Malley. Teco has been finished by strikes just twice in his career but is a bit chinny.
Jose Teco Quinones is a better grappler than striker. He has Jiu-Jitsu tatted on his chest & likes to take fighters down. Teco has nice timing on his doubles & body lock trips. He has good takedowns in the clinch against the cage. On top, Teco is not very good. He isn’t overly dangerous and doesn’t have the best top control. He will throw some decent ground & pound from full or half guard. Quinones has the cardio to grapple for three rounds, which is his best asset. He has only one career submissions & isn’t a finisher. Quinones isn’t great off his back. In his fight with Nathaniel Wood when he was taken down, he quickly gave his back & got submitted. Quinones shows poor fight IQ when he faces adversity & gets overwhelmed. He has been finished in three of his four losses. He has been submitted just that one time.
This should be a fun fight but Smolka is going to be the pick. I give Smolka the advantage in striking and grappling here and he is the higher paced fighter who should be pushing the pace here. Quinonez is the better wrestler of the two and Smolka will accept takedowns, but I don’t see Quinonez having a lot of success on the mat even if he can land them, so he would need to rack them up to get more points from the judges here. I think Smolka is more likely to win by KO, submission, or decision here.
Smolka fights typically score well on DraftKings so this will be a fight I look to target. Both sides are in play but Smolka will be my preferred play of the two. He is the guy I would expect to strike at a higher pace, and he is a solid grappler that can get takedowns, reverses, and advance points if the fight hits the mat. He could get a finish on the feet or the mat as well, so I like all of that about Smolka and I will probably look to be overweight to the field on him. Smolka will accept takedowns though and Quinonez goes for 5 takedowns per fight on average and he could rack up multiple takedowns if he wins this fight or even get a submission win. He is a dog that is in play this week, but I will probably match the field on him or go underweight.
Winner – Louis Smolka via Unanimous Decision
Alex Morono $8,900 vs Rhys McKee $7,300
Alex Morono
Age: 30
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record:
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -175
Alex Morono had his three-fight winning streak snapped in violent fashion. He went into his fight with Khaos Williams a big favorite but was knocked out badly early in the fight. This will be Morono’s tenth UFC fight & he is a veteran. He will have a massive experience advantage over McKee. Morono is a good striker. He has decent lateral movement & is light on his feet. He has a decent jab & left hook. He will throw a right hook lead. He likes to throw a jab, overhand right combination. Morono will throw looping overhand rights & jab, overhand rights. He has a solid head kick and a good spinning heel kick. He dropped Max Griffin with a nasty high kick in his last match. He will throw nice front kicks to the body. He can get lazy throwing kicks sometimes and leave his chin in the air. He stands up very tall and is there to be leg kicked and taken down. He doesn’t throw in combination a lot, especially with his hands. He will try to dart in with one overhand right or throw a jab or spinning backfist, but he doesn’t put long combos together. His footwork and ability to cut guys off and keep a pace and high volume of strikes on him is probably his greatest strength. He wears guys down and can start to take over late. He hasn’t shown major power in his career & has 4 KO/TKO’s. He has a decent chin but has been KO/TKO’d twice in his career.
Alex Morono is a Jiu-Jitsu black belt & showed off some of his skills in his last match. Morono was taken down with a double leg but was able to lock in a guillotine use it to reverse to mount & finish on top. Morono also locked in a nice guillotine vs Josh Burkman. Morono is not much of an offensive grappler. He did jump on a guillotine against Burkman, but that was an old, weathered Burkman. Morono is not a wrestler & will rarely go for offensive takedowns. He did attempt a double leg in his fight against Kenan Song, but has 0 UFC takedowns. His takedown defense is not good at all, and he can be taken down very easily. He will wing shots wildly & opponents can easily duck under & take him down. He was taken down over & over by Jordan Mein and didn’t show much off his back. In his match with Zack Ottow, he did hit a nice a guillotine, rolled into mount & finished the fight. He has good guard retention & is hard to pass, but not dangerous. He will try to throw up armbars & triangles, but he isn’t fast with them. He does have a couple over his career. Even in his last match he was taken down fairly easily by Max Griffin. He has 6 career submissions.
Rhys McKee
Age: 25
Height: 6’2
Weight: 170
Reach: 78”
Gym: Next Generation MMA
From: Ireland
UFC Record: 0-1
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +155
Rhys McKee had a rude awakening in his UFC debut. Khamzat Chimaev needed to smash & obliterate him. McKee was out landed 40-0 before the ref mercifully stopped the fight. McKee has a better matchup in this fight with Morono who will strike with him. This will be McKee’s debut in the United States. McKee has a nice jab that he uses early & often. He throws nice one-twos down the pipe. He will throw some jab, overhand rights. McKee dropped his last opponent with a jab & then finished him off with ground & pound. He will throw some tricky front kicks & high kicks. He likes to back guys up, cut the cage off, make it small, and then pick at them from his range. He throws more stinging punches. McKee stands straight up & down though and is hittable. Fighters can come over the top of his jabs & straights and land on him. McKee stands heavy on his lead leg as well. McKee is durable, and when he gets hit, he is good at closing the distance and tying up to survive. He did get TKO’d for the first time in his career against Chimaev but it wasn’t concussive damage. McKee has 7 KO/TKO’s himself.
If you were to pinpoint the main weakness in McKee’s game, it would be grappling. McKee can struggle with fighters who push him to the cage & look to take him down. He doesn’t have the best clinch or double leg takedown defense against the cage. His double leg defense is not good. I have seen McKee hit a couple offensive takedowns against the cage himself. He has good trips in the clinch. He has good knees and he’s been able to use his height to create scrambles and reverse position. He has a good guillotine he will counter takedown attempts with. When he gets put on his back though, he can be controlled and dominated. We saw this in his losses to Khamzat Chimaev & Terry Brazier. McKee doesn’t have the best get-ups and exposes his back to stand up. He is fairly good at denying the hooks & getting back up when he does that. McKee will roll for legs as well. When fighters try to take his back, he will look to create a scramble, reverse and take top position. I have seen him take the back himself in some scrambles. McKee has three submissions himself and has never been subbed. McKee has good cardio & is a veteran by now. He has won the BAMMA belt, defeating Jai Herbert who is also on this card. McKee has never won a decision. In two decisions in his career he has lost one & had a draw.
McKee got destroyed in his UFC debut by Chimaev, but everybody who has fought that guy has been destroyed. If we throw that fight out, I don’t know how we line Morono close to 2-1 in this spot. Morono is the better grappler but he can’t wrestle like Chimaev, so I think this fight mainly plays out on the feet and McKee is very live there. I think McKee is the better striker and he is the taller and longer fighter as well. Give me the underdog in this spot to get a TKO or a striking decision win.
McKee is my preferred DraftKings play and Morono will be a fade for me. Morono doesn’t have big KO power and he doesn’t go for takedowns. I just don’t think it is likely that he scores high and he is priced up at $8.9k which is higher than RDA. Full fade for me on Morono and McKee is a guy I will want to be overweight to the field on. I think McKee could break the slate with a finish in this fight and I think he could also score 10x or more in a decision win as well. He is going to be a top 3 underdog for me this week and I think he has a legit shot at the upset. I like him in all formats and Morono is one of my 3 least favorite plays on the slate at his price.
Winner – Rhys McKee via 2nd round (T)KO
Miranda Granger $8,200 vs Ashley Yoder $8,000
Miranda Granger
Age: 28
Height: 5’7
Weight: 115
Reach: 68”
Gym: Charlie’s Combat Club
From: Washington
UFC Record: 1-1
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -150
Miranda Granger had her perfect record blemished against Amanda Lemos. She was choked unconscious with a brutal rear naked choke. Granger will be looking to right that wrong here & get back to her winning ways. Prior to that loss she was 7-0. Granger is a long, rangy striker. She has fast hand speed. She has a nice jab and a good left hook. She will throw a one-two or a jab, right hook. She likes to throw two or three straight-right hands in a row to close the distance. She will throw some nice outside leg kicks. She will throw some round kicks to the body as well. Overall her striking isn’t the greatest though. She will reach a lot to try to get in the clinch, isn’t the fastest & is stationary in her movement a times. She looks hittable to me, but no opponent has made her pay yet. This fight she is fighting the best striker of her career in my opinion. She has one TKO which happened on the ground & has finished all her fights on the mat or in the clinch.
Granger is a dangerous grappler. She likes to use her punches to close the distance & get double underhooks. She has nice knees to the body & head from that position. She is very dangerous in the clinch with guillotines. She will get a standing guillotine Jon Jones style & has a great squeeze. She has gotten two of those in her last four matches. When she gets ahold of that neck, she will attack with knees to the head as well. She doesn’t look to be the most physically strong fighter & her wrestling isn’t great. Fighters seem to be able to reverse her & muscle her around a bit. Granger will allow opponents to take her down when she has ahold of the neck. She is very good at using that to regain guard & attack from there. She has a nice guard & throws up submissions quickly. She got an armbar quickly after being taken down vs Jamie Colleen. She did however get submitted with a rear naked choke in her last match. Granger will look for body lock takedowns herself. She will work to the back & look for rear naked chokes. She likes to use her length on the feet to take the back standing. Overall, Granger doesn’t look for many takedowns though. She does look good in scrambles but doesn’t have the greatest top control. She is more of a fighter who likes to flow & scramble on the ground until she can find a submission. Granger is very dexterous with her legs & can take top position in weird ways. When she fought Jamie Thorton, she was on bottom in north south position. She was able to use her legs to roll over, get her hooks in, flatten Thorton out & finish with strikes in mount. She reminds me of a Cynthia Calvillo on the ground a bit. Granger has 5 submissions in her career. She has 2 armbars, 2 guillotines & a rear naked choke. If she can create grappling situations she is dangerous everywhere, whether it be the clinch on top or on bottom.
Ashley Yoder
Age: 33
Height: 5’7
Weight: 115
Reach: 66.5”
Gym: Team Quest
From: California
UFC Record:
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +130
The UFC veteran Ashley Yoder is making her return looking to turn it around. She has lost back to back close decisions and is looking to get back in the win column. With a UFC record of a 2-5 a loss could cost her job. Yoder is long and tries to accentuate it, but she isn’t a great striker and is a bit flat footed. She will throw a nice one-two. Her straight-right hand looked improved and less loopy against Dern. She has a nice fade away overhand right moving backwards. She has a good overhand left & left hook. She will throw front kicks to the body, and decent inside leg kicks. She is aggressive and will press forward, eat shots and continue to throw. She has a very good chin and will walk through shots undeterred. She doesn’t have great speed, and she can get hit clean with faster, tighter punches. Yoder has zero KO/TKO’s & never has been finished by strikes.
Yoder is a strong grappler & good Jiu-Jitsu player. She likes to get a single collar clinch when opponents are pressuring and has a solid head & arm throw. She will try to get in the clinch and grind for takedowns against the cage also. In her last match, she did a great job of working the Thai plum & then ducking under into single leg takedowns. She will dive on submissions both standing, and on the ground, and is very aggressive trying to take the back. Her fight IQ isn’t good, and she will try to take the back too hastily at times and end up on bottom. On her back, she is comfortable as well and will throw up subs but can be grinded out. She is very good at creating scrambles & ending up in top position. She has a good mount & will rain down decent shots. She has great cardio and is very scrappy. Yoder has 3 submissions & has never been finished.
Granger gets the edge on the feet here and the grappling advantage goes to Yoder. I don’t see a KO from Granger coming so the edge on the feet would need a mainly striking match for her hand to get raised. Yoder should be looking to get this fight to the mat and if she can, then she can use her grappling to lock up a submission or just win rounds. I don’t think Granger can dominate the striking so if Yoder can get 1-2 takedowns per round that should be good enough to win.
Granger is going to be a fade for me this week because she is more expensive and should only be looking to strike. Yoder will be my preferred play here because she should be looking to grapple and if she does win with a grappling heavy game plan then she could score well, and I think she has a good shot at 10x or more. I don’t want too much Yoder because she could win and not even get to 10x, but she is live for a submission here and that should score well no matter what round it comes in.
Winner – Ashley Yoder via Unanimous Decision
Sean Strickland $8,300 vs Brendan Allen $7,900
Sean Strickland
Age: 29
Height: 6’1
Weight: 195
Reach: 76”
Gym: Team Quest
From: California
UFC Record: 8-3
Last Fought: 2 Weeks
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +100
Sean Strickland is accepting the call on short notice & getting a big fight vs Brendan Allen. Strickland returned to MMA after his motorcycle accident and looked good in his win vs Jack Marshman. Strickland is fighting this fight at 195 lbs, and I think that’s more for Allen than Strickland. Strickland is a long, rangy, technical kick boxer. Strickland has good lateral footwork, and works being the jab and left hook. He throws fast one-twos, and one-two ones down the pipe. He is good at feinting, and then pull countering with jab or one-two. He will throw uppercut to straight punch combinations. Strickland finds most of his KO/TKO’s that way. Strickland touches his opponents a lot, just pot shotting from the outside to a decision victory. Strickland will sit down on some hooks. He has a heavy right hook. Strickland has a nice rear leg kick. He has nasty low, body & head kicks. Strickland is hard to get inside on, and his defense and footwork is good. He was knocked out with a spinning back kick early in the fight vs Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos, but that was it. Strickland has nine knockouts of his own.
Sean Strickland is going to have to show off the grappling in this fight. In the clinch, Strickland uses his height well, and has good knees and elbows. Strickland doesn’t shoot for takedowns, but he has decent trips in the clinch. He will catch kicks & get takedowns that way. Strickland has a good sprawl. He is athletic and has good balance. When Strickland gets put on his back, he has a good butterfly guard. Strickland was able to attack off his back with some armbars & leg locks against Kamaru Usman. Strickland had an issue with bud eye in the fight & became very defensive. He got walked down & hit with a lot of shots because he was waiting for the takedown. If Strickland can weather the storm here & sweep or hit a takedown of his own & get on top, I think he will have success. He has really good control & back takes to go along with four rear naked chokes.
Brendan Allen
Age: 24
Height: 6’2
Weight: 185
Reach: 77”
Gym: Roufusport MMA
From: Louisiana
UFC Record: 3-0
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -120
Brendan Allen is jumping right back on the horse after his matchup got scrapped last week. He was scheduled to fight Ian Heinisch in a grudge match, but Heinisch got Covid after the weigh-ins. Allen looked like he had a tough weight cut & that’s probably why this fight is at 195 lbs. On the feet, Allen has never been a skilled guy. He just is big for the division, very aggressive & plows forward throwing heavy shots. Allen does have power in his hands & likes to use head movement to get inside & throw hooks. He will paw a jab out there to find his range. Allen will throw some nice body shots and lead hooks. He has good round kicks to the body. Allen is a powerful dude. He has four KO/TKO’s, but a lot are ground & pound finishes. Allen has never been finished by strikes & is a durable guy.
Brendan Allen is a mauler. He presses forward, backs fighters to the cage & is nasty in the clinch. Allen has really good front knees to the body & head. He dropped Kyle Daukaus with a couple slick Muay Thai knees. He has strong body lock takedowns. Allen will get double unders & just muscle fighters to the mat. He has good chain wrestling against the cage but isn’t a guy who really changes levels & shoots takedowns. Allen has pretty good takedown defense. He will attack guillotines & use them to reverse to top position. Once Allen is on top, he has really good top pressure, passing ability and ground & pound. Allen has a tendency to attack guillotines or leg locks that put him on bottom. He does stay heavy on the neck when opponents try to stand up and has the cardio to grapple hard for extended periods. Allen isn’t horrible on bottom. He will hit some sweeps. He used an omaplata to get to top position his last fight, but Kevin Holland cut him open with an elbow, and almost caught him in a rear naked choke. Allen was able to dog Holland out, and submit him which is tough to do. Allen loves to take the back & hit rear naked chokes. He has seven submissions in his career. Daukaus also had a lot of success in top position in their fight. He was able to take Allen’s back and really dominated the third round. Allen showed a lot of toughness because he was fighting through several face fractures. Allen is a dog & has pretty good cardio. He does slow down though.
Strickland just fought two weeks ago, and Allen was supposed to fight last weekend, but the fight fell off. Now they are making this fight at a catchweight of 195 lbs on less than a weeks’ notice and this is one of the better fights on the card. Strickland gets the striking edge, but Allen should have the size edge which I would think gives him the wrestling edge. Both are solid grapplers, but I would slightly favor Allen just because I think he is more likely to have top control. This is close, but I’d say dog or pass either way.
I like both sides of this fight. I think the winner will score 10x or more and it could be a high paced fight with a lot of possible advances. Allen is my preferred play because he will be the one looking to grapple, but if he isn’t successful with takedowns then Strickland can score will with his pace on the feet and he could also get a KO here. I will look to be overweight on Allen on DraftKings because he is under $8k and Strickland will probably be someone I look to match the fields ownership on because he could win a decision and score less than 80, where I don’t see Allen not getting 10x+ in a win.
Winner – Brendan Allen via 2nd round Submission
Eryk Anders $8,500 vs Antonio Arroyo $7,700
Eryk Anders
Age: 33
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 75”
Gym: Spartan Fitness MMA
From: Alabama
UFC Record: 5-5
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -130
Eryk Anders enters this fight a slight favorite as he takes on Antonio Arroyo. He will be taking this fight on short notice replacing Andreas Michailidis. Anders is a ten fight UFC veteran, but only has a record of 5-5. He hasn’t been able to show consistency or get over the hump in the UFC yet. Anders is coming off a lackluster performance against Krzysztof Jotko. Anders is a bit plodding, but he is durable and always coming forward trying to cut off the cage. Anders isn’t very technical on the feet, but he has power in his left hand. It’s dangerous to trade with Anders because he will look to slip & return with the big left hand. Anders has that high kick knockout over Tim Williams, and will look for it, but I doubt he will land it against Arroyo.
Eryk Anders is a mauler. He has gotten away from that style a bit but needs to return back to it here. Anders is very athletic & closes the gap quickly. He is good at closing that space, clinching up with his opponent & when he does, he is strong. Anders will hold his opponent up against the cage & work short shots & knees. Anders has some pretty dangerous knees in the clinch. Anders doesn’t have the best wrestling, but he will level change and go for takedowns against the cage. He likes to attack the single leg but keeps his hips way too high.
Antonio Arroyo
Age: 31
Height: 6’3
Weight: 185
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: Marajó Brothers Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-1
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +110
Antonio Arroyo will be looking for his first UFC win as he takes on Eryk Anders. Arroyo dropped a decision in his debut to Andre Muniz, snapping a five-fight winning streak. Arroyo is getting a tough, short notice matchup as he now takes on a fighter with a totally different style. Anders is also a southpaw, which makes this a southpaw vs southpaw matchup. Arroyo is 0-1 in his career against southpaws. Muniz was the other southpaw he faced so it will be his second in a row here. Arroyo likes to get his work done early. He has finished eight of his nine wins, seven in the first round. Arroyo on the feet is a nasty kicker. He has a nasty right kick to the body & head. Arroyo sets up his high kicks with nasty inside low kicks & round kicks to the body. He throws super-fast powerful kicks. He is an athlete & will mix in spins & jumping kicks. Arroyo will blitz forward with straights followed by hooks. He likes to try to catch opponents with pull counters. In the pocket, he will flurry looking to overwhelm fighters. Arroyo throws some wild slapping punches at times that are sloppy. He also doesn’t have the best boxing defense. Arroyo ate a lot of shots in his last fight against a fighter who isn’t a great striker in Muniz. Arroyo starts fights with very fast movement. He’s light on his feet & bounces in & out. As the fights progress, Arroyo does slow down & becomes more labored & hittable.
Antonio Arroyo will mix it up in fights. He uses his takedowns more to break up the rhythm of fights & take rests. Arroyo is an athletic fighter with solid level changes. He will hit well-timed doubles. Arroyo also will work in some creative takedowns like karate foot sweeps. When Arroyo gets on top, he just is a lay & pray guy. He will bury his head in his opponent’s chest & throw short shots while maintaining position & catching his breath. Arroyo isn’t super dangerous with submissions, but he does have a pretty good arm triangle. Arroyo was able to drop Stephen Regman with a high kick, trap a wrist, throw heavy ground & pound & then lock in that head & arm choke. Regman is a former 155er who fights at 170, so Arroyo was a much bigger fighter. Arroyo showed some poor grappling defense & fight IQ in his last fight. He got taken down a couple times pretty easily by Muniz & threatened with multiple submissions. He did prove tough to get out of there & defended all the submissions but lost a decision. Arroyo also gassed hard in the fight. Arroyo will work to his feet early. He has a good butterfly guard, but accepted position in round three against Muniz. There were some things I didn’t like with Arroyo at the end of the fight with Muniz. He spent about 1:30 seconds just kicking the legs and throwing weak punches at Muniz while Muniz tried to get him to come into the guard instead of just telling him to stand up. When the referee finally stood them up with about 15 seconds to go in a very close fight Arroyo didn’t even throw one shot.
This is a close fight. Anders gets the power and wrestling edge from me but the technique and grappling edge to Arroyo. This fight should stay standing though for the most part. Either guy could get a KO but if this plays out over 15-minutes, I would rather take the underdog either way in this spot, so for that reason, Arroyo is the pick.
Arroyo is my preferred DraftKings play but this won’t be a fight I target much at all. I expect this to mainly be a striking fight and the only way it scores well is if there is a KO. I like Arroyo more though because he is a dog that can win and maybe ~70-points gets there. I doubt that is the case though, so I would fade this fight with 10 or less lineups most likely.
Winner – Antonio Arroyo via Split Decision
Kay Hansen $9,200 vs Cory McKenna $7,000
Kay Hansen
Age: 21
Height: 5’2
Weight: 115
Reach: 63”
Gym: 10th Planet Buena Park
From: California
UFC Record: 1-0
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -225
Kay Hansen got it done in her UFC debut with style points. She dropped the first round but rallied back to get a third-round submission. Hansen was able to take out an experienced, former Invicta champion & showed she is quickly evolving. At 21 years old she has the chance to be around a long time. Hansen is not a great striker. She did take a boxing fight recently and her hands are okay. She will throw some straights & hooks. She isn’t much of a kicker. Hansen really is looking to use her forward pressure, footwork, and strikes as a distraction in order to get the takedown. She isn’t looking to finish the fight on the mat. Hansen has never been finished by strikes either & is a very tough girl.
Kay Hansen is a strong grappler who relies on her wrestling. Hansen has excellent double legs, and back takes. She is good at taking opponents down off kicks. In the clinch, Hansen is strong, has good underhooks & head positioning. Hansen has decent trips in the clinch against the cage. On top, Hansen is very heavy. She has good ground & pound and is always looking for subs. Hansen has great mounts and back takes. When she gets to the back, she flattens opponents out & is effective. Hansen will sit in half guard, land ground & pound and look for guillotines. Hansen will finish the guillotine from mount. She has solid arm triangles. Hansen will attack front chokes from side control, and armbars from mount. I have seen Hansen taken down, but she is good off her back & hard to control. She has solid leg locks. Hansen has finished five of six wins on the mat. She is young, aggressive & improving. She pushes a high pace & in the small cage her wrestling should be effective. Hansen is only 1-2 in decisions, but the two losses were split decisions.
Cory McKenna
Age: 21
Height: 5’3
Weight: 115
Reach: 58.5”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: Wales
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +185
Cory McKenna is fighting the only girl who is younger than her in the UFC. Both these girls are just 21 years old, but McKenna is one month older than Hansen. McKenna punched her ticket to the UFC with a win on the contender series. She was able to defeat the very tough Vanessa Demopoulos in a pretty dominant decision. McKenna is still developing as a striker. She is predominately a boxer. She will mix in some low & body kicks, but her hands are better than her kicks. McKenna has a nice jab. She throws a lead hook, straight combination. McKenna will try to pull fighters into lead hook & straight shot counters. She is comfortable & switches between both stances throughout the fight. McKenna doesn’t have the reach or athleticism at times to get inside. She can get pinged with a lot of shots from the outside, and that’s how she lost her split decision to Micol DiSegni.
Cory McKenna is a good grappler. She has spent a lot of time at Team Alpha Male to polish that part of her game. McKenna has excellent level changes on her double legs. She is very good at finishing in the middle of the octagon, but she will also use the double to push fighters to the fence and chain wrestle. On top, McKenna is really good. She has excellent passing ability, and back takes. When she takes the back, she is hard to shake off. Her top game is crushing. When she takes an opponent down, she usually keeps them down. McKenna when she’s taken down is a sick scrambler. She has a great guard & excellent sweeps. Her competition level hasn’t been at the level of Hansen’s, and I’m interested to see how she fares against a good wrestler. In her last fight she did show she can defend the submissions of an elite submission artist in Vanessa Demopoulos. She landed some really nice ground & pound from inside Demopoulos’ full guard. McKenna isn’t a big submission artist, she cares more about staying on top, throwing ground & pound, and controlling. McKenna does have a solid rear naked choke. She has never been finished. Her cardio is solid & she is very tough.
Both fighters are decent grapplers, but Hansen might get the slight edge on the mat. McKenna looks like the better striker to me and she might be the better wrestler as well. This line should be a lot closer to even though and I think the hype behind Hansen is playing a factor in the odds. This is a dog or pass fight for me, and the biggest worry would be McKenna getting caught in a sub. If that doesn’t happen, I don’t see how Hansen wins this fight anywhere close to 70% of the time and I would actually favor McKenna if I knew there would be no submission.
This could end up being an important fight if there is a submission or a lot of grappling from either side. McKenna is going to be my preferred play of the two because of how cheap she is but I don’t think I end up with much of her and I doubt I get any Hansen at all. Hansen is priced too high for me at $9.2k and she will probably be my fade of the week because I don’t see how she scores 10x unless she gets the 1st round submission. I will be hoping this fight mainly plays out on the feet and if that happens then neither will score well.
Winner – Cory McKenna via Unanimous Decision
Julian Marquez $9,400 vs Saparbek Safarov $6,800
Julian Marquez
Age: 30
Height: 6’2
Weight: 185
Reach: 75”
Gym: Glory MMA& Fitness
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 1-1
Last Fought: 2 Years 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -280
Julian “The Cuban Missile Crisis” Marquez is making his return to the octagon after over two years away from the sport. Marquez has suffered a lot of injuries, along with personal life issues as well. The last time we saw Marquez he was losing a close split decision to Alessio Di Chirico. Marquez is a powerful striker. Marquez will inch forward behind lead hooks & overhands. When he gets on the inside, he will let go with power hooks. Marquez has a dangerous high kick he will throw when fighters try to exit off the cage. Marquez throws some nice elbows on the inside. His defense really isn’t that great, but he’s durable and will take a shot to give one.
Julian Marquez is big & physical for the division. He isn’t the most active grappler but will look to get in the clinch at times. He will let go with some heavy elbows and knees. Marquez likes to get heavy on the neck & snap fighters down from the front head lock position. Marquez has questionable takedown defense. He was taken down a couple times by Darren Stewart in their fight. Marquez is one of those guys though that won’t accept bottom position. When he gets taken down, he will immediately look to explode back to his feet. Marquez will expose his back to stand up but is good at staying calm & eventually working his way out of the position. He tired Stewart out in grappling exchanges & then found the submission. In his fight with Phil Hawes, he defended a lot of the takedowns & then finished him with a nasty high kick. Marquez has pretty good scrambling ability. Marquez has even defeated guys like Matt Hamill & Cameron Olsen who are strong wrestlers. Overall, Marquez is still fairly inexperienced. He is 0-2 in decisions and has never won a fight that has hit the third round. Luckily for Marquez, Safarov has only been to the third round one time in his career.
Saparbek Safarov
Age: 34
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 78”
Gym: Legion Fight Team
From: Russia
UFC Record: 1-3
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +240
Saparbek Safarov is making his return to the octagon, and his second appearance in the middleweight division. He lost to Rodolfo Vieira in his debut at MW via first round submission. He will throw a jab out there and hard left hooks. He will close the distance with big hooks & uppercuts. He will try to walk opponents into his overhand right. He will throw fade away left hooks. He will throw overhand right, left hook combinations. He will throw hard kicks to the body. When he threw a body kick against Villante, he grabbed his knee and it seems to be a recurring problem in his career. He is all heart & will continue to come forward throwing bombs regardless. On the feet, I feel over time he will be able to start to land some big shots on Marquez. I feel on the feet it just will be a wild brawl. Saparbek throws wide shots & fighters are able to counter him easily. He also drops his head when he throws punches. Saparbek has a hell of a chin. He has 6 KO/TKO’s and has been finished one time by TKO.
Saparbek is a strong grappler. He has good double legs and will crash into the clinch. He has decent, low single legs. He is good on top. He does a great job of trapping a wrist and trying to move directly into mount or the back. He will catch kicks into takedowns. In his last match, he showed off absolutely brutal ground & pound and heavy elbows. He has a strong sprawl & will land hard uppercuts on the break. He will attack with guillotines to defend takedown attempts. It will be interesting to see who will be able to takedown who or if at all. He was kimura’d going for a takedown against the cage in his match with Tyson Pedro, so I wouldn’t advise grappling here. He has two career submissions.
Safarov is a wild man and he is live to get a knockout here. That might be his only path to victory though because I think Marquez is the better striker and grappler in this matchup so it’s hard to see Safarov winning any other way. The first round should be the closest and Safarov’s best chance, but after that Marquez should take over and probably get a finish of his own.
FDGTD is -320 for this fight so it does look like a decent fight to target. Marquez is the highest priced fighter on the card though and I don’t know that he comes out of the gates fast looking to finish in round 1. I think he might have to weather the early storm and then finish in rounds 2 or 3, and that might not be enough points for him. I also don’t think he gets there if this goes all 3 rounds, so I won’t have a ton of this fight in my lineups. I do think Safarov has slate breaking potential because he will probably go for the kill early and if he gets it for 100+ then he is on the optimal lineup and he won’t have much ownership at all. Marquez will be the guy I end up with more of between the two but if I was making just 1 lineup trying to win $100k, then maybe Safarov is the way to go for a big field GPP like that.
Winner – Julian Marquez via 2nd round (T)KO
Abdul Razak Alhassan $9,100 vs Khaos Williams $7,100
Abdul Razak Alhassan
Age: 35
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Ghana
UFC Record: 4-2
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -230
Abdul Razak Alhassan will be looking to bounce back after suffering a loss in his comeback fight 3 months ago. Alhassan was returning from a long layoff of almost two years, and just didn’t look super sharp in the cage. Alhassan was essentially dominated. Now he will be facing a fighter with a similar style to him in Khaos Williams. Alhassan is ruthless aggression personified. All 10 of his victories are first round knockouts, 6 of them lasting less than one minute. He goes in there, explodes & gets out. He is supremely athletic & powerful. Alhassan is very wild. He will quickly look to back up his opponents and throw jab, overhand rights. He has good in & out movement & is very fast closing the distance. He will explode in with brutal straights & uppercuts. He likes to switch it up between the overhand right & uppercut as a lead. He will switch stances on the outside. He has thudding low kicks. He will sometimes throw some high kicks. Inside, Alhassan is nasty. He has one punch power even in close range. He will find tricky uppercuts and has a nice, tight left hook. He tries to force opponents to brawl with him & make fights wars. In those exchanges Alhassan is just faster & more powerful. It’s a dangerous game to trade with Alhassan.
Abdul Razak Alhassan has a strong judo background. He is going to be the much better grappler here, but I doubt he goes for takedowns. Alhassan has very heavy hips, good clinch takedowns, and is super hard to hold down. His takedown defense is questionable, but he will continue to get back to his feet. In his one loss with Omari Akhmedov, he proved that & even won the third round convincingly. Alhassan isn’t going to have to worry about someone taking him down here though. It’s going to be interesting how he looks after the layoff, and being 34 years old, but he should be ready to go.
Khaos Williams
Age: 26
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 77”
Gym: Murcielago MMA
From: Michigan
UFC Record: 1-0
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: +190
Khaos Williams announced himself to the UFC stage in style, dusting Alex Morono in less than 30 seconds. Williams will be looking for the biggest win of his career here against Razak Alhassan. He is the younger fighter by nine years in this fight and going to have a 5” reach advantage. Williams’ striking is not really that great in my opinion. Williams throws a lot of low kicks from the outside. Williams will leap into lead hooks, rear uppercuts and big overhands. Williams will throw wild right hooks. He drops his hands when he throws kicks. Williams will trade sloppily on the inside. He leaves his head right on center line & against Alhassan he could be in trouble if he gets touched clean. Williams’ striking is just not very good to me. He uses his reach athleticism & power to overwhelm opponents and force his grappling. Williams has five knockouts in his career.
Khaos Williams will look to mix it up. He uses his athleticism to get on the inside and push fighters to the fence. From there Williams has a lot of close range power, & decent takedowns. Williams will look to catch kicks and take fighters down that way. On top, Williams is not super dangerous. He will just stay heavy on top, maul opponents, and land short ground & pound. Williams has good front chokes. His best path to victory in this fight is to push the pace & really grapple heavy.
This should be a violent striking fight. Both guys throw heat and will be looking for the knockout early and often. I think Alhassan is the better and more powerful striker, so he is going to be the pick here. I was hoping him coming off a loss and Williams coming off a win would have helped his line here but he is still a fan favorite, so we still have to pay up for him if we want an investment.
This is going to be close to an all-in fight with the -650 FDGTD line. Either guy could get a 1st round KO and under 1.5 rounds is juiced at -170 right now. Alhassan is going to be one of my favorite plays on the slate in all formats and a core play for me. If MMEing then I do want Williams in some lineups as well as a hedge to all the Alhassan exposure and he could break the slate again with another 1st round KO. Alhassan with his -180 ITD line might end up being my highest owned fighter on the card and I am hoping him burning a lot of people in his last fight will slightly decrease his ownership in this matchup.
Winner – Abdul Razak Alhassan via 1st round (T)KO
Rafael Dos Anjos $8,800 vs Paul Felder $7,400
Rafael Dos Anjos
Age: 36
Height: 5’8”
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 70”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
UFC Record: 18-11
Last Fought: 10 months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -190
RDA is set to headline yet another UFC event. The legend has fallen on hard times, but he should be reinvigorated moving back to 155. RDA is a great, well-rounded fighter. RDA is a nasty Muay Thai striker, and black belt in Jiu-Jitsu with good wrestling. He has a heavy forward pressure style and throws very high volume. He has a nice lead straight and leaping right hook. He will throw the left straight and left overhand very fast down the pipe. He has very hard body and leg kicks and throws body kicks early and often. He will leap in with an uppercut. RDA has great fakes and feints and has good head movement. He is much more balanced and technical striker. RDA doesn’t have huge power and doesn’t have many finishes by strikes. In this fight, it will be interesting to see if his shots have enough impact to stun Felder. RDA will hang in the pocket and wing overhands in the pocket. He was fighting against the cage a lot of the fight against Usman and Covington, and that’s why he lost the fight. RDA will want to make Felder move backwards with his striking and boss the fight. He can’t win this match backing up. Dos Anjos has 5 KO/TKO’s in his career. Dos Anjos has been KO/TKO’d 3 times, but he has a hell of a chin. He can take big shots & keep coming.
RDA is a great grappler. His grappling is underrated because he has had to go up against the elite of the elite lately. He is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu & has solid offensive wrestling himself. He will rarely go for takedowns, but he has a nice double leg against the fence. He will occasionally shoot singles at range, but he is always usually transitioning back to the double leg. When he gets on top, he is very good. He has a heavy top game and uses pressure passing to move into dominant positions. He won his match against Lee with a submission. He is very good at just beating opponents up from the guard with shots as well and defending submissions. He has stayed safe in the guards of fighters such as Anthony Pettis & Nate Diaz. He has a very nice kimura from half guard and will also look for arm triangles. He likes to take the back & get rear naked chokes as well. RDA has a good Muay Thai plum and knees in the clinch. He is good at making fighters pay for attempting to take him down and popping right back up when they do. RDA has always struggled with wrestlers; Losing to Chiesa, Covington, Usman, Khabib, Guida, Tibau, and Tyson Griffin. He also had a very questionable decision win vs Evan Dunham. He is much better now at defending takedowns and using the cage to get off his back. He will get wide against the cage, and does a good job breaking the posture of his opponents and landing nice elbows. He has good knees to the body. He has a very good sprawl, and when he does get taken down he will bounce right back up. He is active off his back with sweeps & kimura attempts, and usually always is back to his feet quickly. He has 11 submissions & has never been submitted in his career. He has the better cardio & more championship experience.
Paul Felder
Age: 36
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: Roufusport
From: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
UFC Record: 9-5
Last Fought: 9 months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +165
Paul Felder has been showing the best form of his career since going to Roufousport. If he can win here he will be very close to a UFC title shot. On the feet, he is technical. He has a nice jab and left hook. He will throw nice straight-right hands. He has a nice one-two. Felder likes to throw a right hand to the body to a left hook combination. He will throw hard roundhouse kicks to the body and step-in knees. He will throw a knee to the body to a straight-left combination. He will load up and throw brutal leg kicks. He has great spinning techniques with spinning backfists and spinning heel kicks. He will throw spinning back elbows, and front elbows. He definitely has power, but I wouldn’t call him a knockout artist. He does have 10 career KO/TKO’s. He is extremely tough & durable. He has never been finished by strikes. His one TKO loss was a doctor’s stoppage.
Felder is a dangerous grappler. He has shown he is good in all facets, his clinch game is strong, and he has great knees to the body and the head and some of the best elbows in the business. He dropped Stevie Ray with a massive knee in the clinch, and then followed up with devastating elbows to finish him. He finished Oliveira with the same nasty G&P elbows after surviving a lot of deep submission attempts. He has some of the nastiest ground and pound along with Jeremy Stephens in a long time. Felder is going to have to get inside & use the clinch and use those dangerous elbows against RDA. He has good takedown defense & get-up game. He attacked with an armbar when he was taken down by Perry. He can get beat up in the clinch with elbows himself & was finished via cut against Trinaldo due to that. Felder needs to close the distance & throw more than one. He isn’t a submission threat but using the clinch & takedowns to create striking openings may be a smart game plan.
Islam Makhachev pulled out of this fight and Felder took it on 5 days’ notice. He has to cut a lot of weight and the fight is still scheduled for 5-rounds, so props to Felder but this is a tough spot for him. RDA has fallen off lately losing 4 of his last 5 and Felder has been looking great and even in his last loss, he looks like the best version of Felder we have seen. Felder is actually the older one of the two which was surprising to me, but it looks like he has more left in the tank even though he has been mentioning retiring. This should be a fight that mainly stays standing and it is very close on the feet. I do give RDA an edge on the mat which is why I would slightly favor him in the matchup, but I might give Felder the slight edge on the feet and there is no way I would pay close to -200 on either one of these guys. Felder doesn’t strike me as a guy who will have cardio issues on a short notice fight, so I think he can win a decision, but I will take him to land a hard shot and put RDA away.
This is going to be one of the best fights to target on DraftKings because it is still a 5-round fight. Either guy could finish and score well with that. I think RDA is more live for a submission or a decision win with takedowns and advances along with all his significant strikes. And I think Felder is more live to win with a knockout. I do think either guy can and will score more than 10x in a decision win as well, so this will be one of my favorite fights to click and Felder is my preferred side of the two. I would just stack this fight in cash games and lock in the 100+ and winner, and I am not even against stacking it in GPPs. I think this could be FOTN and score 140+ DK points as a whole. Either way, I will be loading up on this fight and I will be closer to 65/35 in favor of Felder.
Winner – Paul Felder via 3rd round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown & be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building & I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend & enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on Twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks & predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice & fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on Twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: BigMarleyMMA.com
- Bets are on a 1-5u scale with 1u = $100.
- I am 147-124 for +240.71u (+$24,071) since May 19, 2018 for all premium bets.
