BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC Vegas 13 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games & look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience & you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player & it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups & 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights, & hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Late added fight:
Anthony Birchak -125 vs Gustavo Lopez +105 – Lopez’s original opponent fell off the card and Birchak took this fight on a couple days’ notice. This is his 2nd chance in the UFC, and in his first UFC stint, he went 2-2. This is a close fight as the line indicates. I think Birchak is the more skilled fighter of the two anywhere this fight goes, but Lopez might be the more dangerous fighter and possibly the better wrestler. I wouldn’t want to invest much in either guy here, but I would say it is probably a dog or pass for me on the betting line.
This is a close fight, and it should be right around the $8k salary range. Either guy could finish on the feet or the mat, so I do think this could be an important fight if you are MMEing. I also think it could end with a decision and I don’t see either guy ending up on the optimal if that is the case and they might not even get 10x. That makes me not want to trust it for SE or cash games. My preferred play is going to be Lopez though assuming he is cheaper on DK. I think he could get a KO, or a sub and I would also think he is the one more likely to land takedowns. I won’t be high on either side but if I am making 20 or more lineups, I would want 10-20% of each guy.
(Pick is Gustavo Lopez via Split Decision)
Max Griffin $8,600 vs Ramiz Brahimaj $7,700
Max Griffin
Age: 34
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 76”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: California
UFC Record: 3-6
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -140
Max “Pain” Griffin is looking to turn it around as he faces Ramiz Brahimaj. He has lost two fights in a row and four of his last five, but he always brings it. Griffin has fought a lot of tough guys. Griffin has made the move to Team Alpha Male for this fight and is looking to change it up a bit. All of Griffin’s losses other than in his UFC debut have been back & forth, and he’s never an easy out. Griffin has an unreal chin. He can eat shots that would knockout almost anyone out & then take big follow ups and still somehow recover. In his last match, he ate a flush head kick to the jaw, followed by three or four knees to the chin & a clean spinning backfist. He still somehow was able to survive & then won the following round. He has excellent lateral movement & very fast hand speed. He will throw the jab to the body & head. He has very fast one-twos. His straight-right hand is super-fast & he has big power on it. He dropped Mike Perry with a straight-right hand, left hook combination. He will meet opponents in the middle with straight punching combinations to stop their forward movement. He will also close the distance with straight punches or hooks in combination and try to finish opponents against the cage. He is very good at darting in with a straight shot & then getting out of range. He has very fast hand speed. He will throw hard inside, outside leg kicks & the occasional head kick. He has a very nice step-in knee to the body. He is extremely durable. He took some huge shots against Thiago Alves, Mike Perry, and especially Curtis Millender & Zaleski Dos Santos. If fighters can cut him off, they can sometimes land wide hooks or overhands as he tries to exit. Griffin starts fights very sharp, powerful, and technical, but time goes on, he gasses hard. His movements become much more labored and his punches & kicks come very slow. Griffin is much more dangerous in round one with 5 of his 7 knockouts being in round one. He becomes very hittable. He has only been TKO’d one time from being unable to get out of a position on the ground against Colby Covington.
Max Griffin has really improved as a grappler, winning his last via wrestling. Griffin did a great job of digging underhooks & landing trip or body lock takedowns. Griffin is also good at using the underhooks to drive opponents to the cage & chain wrestle. He will drop down into doubles & singles and has good control there. Griffin will throw an overhand right directly into a single leg or body lock takedown. On top, Griffin will get into half guard & land short elbows to the body & head. He will get a tight waist from side control & use it to control & ride opponents out. Griffin is good at turking the legs and transitioning quickly. He will force opponents to give their backs, where he has good back control. He will look for the rear naked choke, but cares more about controlling the position and then finding the finish. Griffin has gotten better with his top control and was able to earn a victory mostly via top control. Griffin was put on his back & dominated by Colby Covington but hasn’t really been on his back much since that contest. He will be tested again in this match. Griffin has just two submissions & has been submitted one time.
Ramiz Brahimaj
Age: 27
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: New York
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 1 Year 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +120
Ramiz Brahimaj will finally make his UFC debut November 7th. Brahimaj hasn’t fought in well over a year at this point. He was scheduled to face Miguel Baeza on the contender series last March, but an injury forced him off the card & he hasn’t fought since. Brahimaj has been healthy for a while now, and actually won the 2019 IBJJ no Gi worlds in December. He had a couple UFC fights scheduled that fell through, so hopefully this one materializes. Brahimaj is a 27-year-old prospect with a 8-2 record fighting out of Fortis MMA. Brahimaj really has little to no striking. He has a jab he moves forward behind. He will throw some front kicks up the middle. Ramiz will look to throw some straights or kicks, and just close the distance. He can be very sloppy closing the gap & get hit hard. Inside in the clinch he is very hittable as well. He does keep good forward pressure. Ramiz is tough, but he’s been dropped & hurt in multiple fights. Brahimaj still has yet to get finished. He has no knockouts of his own.
Ramiz Brahimaj is a sick grappler. He is looking to close the distance, get in the clinch & get the fight to the mat. He will look to jump on the back from standing. Brahimaj has a nice double as well, and has no issue pulling guard. Brahimaj will spam takedowns. Maybe he won’t be successful early, but he tends to take fighters down later on. When he can get on top, he is super dangerous & always is attacking the neck. He has a great arm triangle & rear naked. He is always hunting guillotines. Brahimaj is excellent off his back as well. He is dangerous with submissions & has good sweeps. I have seen fights where fighters shut him down & beat him. He is very aggressive in going for the submission so much that sometimes he will give up position and tire himself if he can’t finish. Once he’s more exhausted fighters can start to control him on top or against the cage more easily. His takedown defense isn’t the best. Brahimaj has finished all his matches by submission. In his two career decisions, he’s lost. He spends too much time on his back & just doesn’t have the striking to usually win decisions. In his fight with Justin Patterson he was visibly exhausted in the third round. Brahimaj is the most dangerous in the first. He has 7 of his 8 wins in the first round. He has never won a fight where it’s gone to round three. Brahimaj fights balls to the wall & is a warrior, but he gasses hard.
Brahimaj is making his UFC debut here and he is an aggressive wrestler/grappler. He is going to sell out for the early submission and if he doesn’t get it then he might lose. I don’t see Brahimaj having much to offer on the feet and I would expect him to tire out and lose if he can’t get the early submission. However, I like how aggressive he is early, and I think he will get the fight to the mat in the 1st round so I will take him to get the submission upset.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Brahimaj. He is the boom/bust type guy I like to target in GPPs as an underdog because if he wins this fight he should score well. He will sell out for the submission and he could land multiple takedowns along the way to locking up a sub. I do expect him to be popular, but I will be overweight to the field. If he doesn’t get that sub, I think he loses this fight, so I wouldn’t take an all-in type stand if MMEing, but I am fine with him in 40-50% of my lineups. Griffin is in play for GPPs because Brahimaj will be popular and Griffin won’t. If Griffin knocks him out early, then a good portion of the field will be dead, and the Griffin lineups will pass a lot of the field if that is the case. I don’t see me having more than 10-20 lineups this week, so I doubt I get to Griffin myself, but he does make sense if you are shooting for that $100k and want to be contrarian.
Winner – Ramiz Brahimaj via 1st round Submission
Darren Elkins $8,700 vs Eduardo Garagorri $7,500
Darren Elkins
Age: 36
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 71”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: Indiana
UFC Record: 14-8
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L4
Betting Odds: -230
Darren Elkins is fighting for his career here. He has lost four fights in a row, and probably will be sent packing or into retirement with a loss. Elkins has had an epic career in the UFC filled with bloody wars, but at 36 years old he’s seen his better days. He still has some dog left in him though and enters a slight favorite here. He is an awkward striker, but he has improved. He has a good jab and a decent straight-right hand. Elkins has a strong body kick, and he used it effectively against Alexander Volkanovski. Elkins has a decent check left hook in close, and he will attack with uppercuts as well. He has an awkward counter right hand, and he catches fighters coming in with it. He has a hell of a chin, and his pressure and pace break a lot of fighters. A lot of his shots are to close the distance and get in the clinch. He took a ton of punishment in his last fight, and eventually that’s all going to come back to him, but as of now his chin is still strong. He has gotten KO/TKO’d two times. He isn’t a big knockout threat, but he has 6 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Elkins is a very strong grappler, and that’s his main objective in his fights. He doesn’t have great wrestling shots, but he likes to get a hold of his opponent with body locks. He is a dog in the clinch, he gets attached to the fighter, makes it ugly and drags them to the ground. He is great in the scrambles and is hard to takedown and hold down himself. He proved that against Mirsad Bektic, as he wore him out with grappling scenarios, and came back with a nasty head kick to finish the fight. He gets desperate with takedown attempts at times and shoot from way too far out. He has phenomenal cardio and guys get tired beating on him and he takes over. He usually loses round 1 before rallying for the win. Elkins only has 4 submissions & has been submitted one time.
Eduardo Garagorri
Age: 31
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: Fronteira Fight Team
From: Uruguay
UFC Record: 1-1
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +190
Eduardo Garagorri suffered the first loss of his career 11 months ago when he was submitted by Ricardo Ramos. Garagorri was 13-0 previous to that fight. A lot of those wins are very low-level wins. Garagorri is a Muay Thai striker who transitioned to MMA. He is a pretty dynamic striker. Garagorri moves well, switches stances & has nasty kicks. He has nice, long punch combinations. He has a nice jab and good one-twos. He has a nice rear uppercut, left hook combo. He has a nice left hook, right straight combination. He will attack the left hook to the body & then up to the head. He has really fast hand speed & will use a lot of feints & then explode into punches. He has excellent kicks. His leg kicks are nasty, and he has really nice round kicks to the body. He will throw nasty spinning back kicks to the body & head, that he throws extremely fast without any tell. He has 4 KO/TKO’s.
Eduardo Garagorri’s grappling looks a bit suspect. His takedown defense is not very good, and he can be taken down easily. Against lower level fighters, he was able to reverse takedowns & take top position through sheer athleticism, but he has poor technique. He was taken down four times by Humberto Bandenay & he tends to give his back when he stands up. When he got taken down by Ricardo Ramos, he had his back taken & was finished with a rear naked choke. Garagorri won’t shoot takedowns offensively but is dangerous with ground & pound if he can take top position. He will also look for submissions. He will look to take the back & get the rear naked. He needs to avoid grappling vs Elkins & use his wrestling in reverse to keep it standing. Garagorri had 6 submission wins.
Garagorri should have a striking advantage in this matchup but Elkins probably isn’t going to look to strike with him. Elkins is a grinder, and he is going to look to win 2 or 3 rounds with takedowns and top control. He could submit Garagorri as well, but he is a good enough wrestler to dictate where this fight takes place and that is enough for me to pick him to get his hand raised.
This is a fight I am really not sure what I want to do with on DraftKings. I won’t be starting any lineups with this fight and it will come down more to who fits in my 5th or 6th spot. I am guessing Garagorri will be my preferred play because I don’t like the underdogs on the slate, and he does have a legit path to victory if he can stuff takedowns. He can also land a KO and break the slate, so I do think he is a solid dog to target. I could also see Elkins landing multiple takedowns in each round or locking up a submission, and if that is the case he will score well. I do like other favorites more though so that is why I think I will end up with more Garagorri. I don’t see me having a lot of this fight though, so I will be hoping for an Elkins win where he scores ~80 DK points and I don’t think that will cut it.
Winner – Darren Elkins via Unanimous Decision
Alexandr Romanov $9,000 vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima $7,200
Alexandr Romanov
Age: 29
Height: 6’2
Weight: 265
Reach: 75”
Gym: Lion Comrat
From: Moldova
UFC Record: 1-0
Last Fought: 1 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W12
Betting Odds: -350
Alexandr Romanov will be making a quick return to the octagon after his destruction of Roque Hernandez in his debut. Romanov is getting his original opponent he was supposed to get in his debut in Rogerio de Lima. Romanov is 12-0 overall though, and a big, athletic HW. His striking on the feet is super wild & unrefined. Romanov is fast though, comes forward and keeps a crazy pace. He has really nice body & head kicks for a big guy. He comes forward behind straight line blitzes to get in on the legs. That’s really it on the feet for him. He is wild in exchanges & gets tired & vulnerable if forced to strike too long. He still is powerful & his body kick is pretty nasty. He is durable & knows his strengths. He isn’t looking to strike with people for long.
Alexandr Romanov is a very strong, aggressive wrestler. He has been able to overwhelm his opponents with his size, strength & technique. At range, Romanov has nice singles & doubles. He will get his hands connected, pick fighters up & slam them down. He is good at using the singles & doubles to push fighters to the cage. He bullies fighters down to the mat with body locks and has some amazing throws. He will land suplexes and throws 260+ lb men to the mat. On top, he wastes no time, he has great passing ability, ground & pound & when he gets in mount he is super heavy. He will get weird modified Ezekiel & shoulder choke type submissions. Romanov doesn’t have the best Jiu-Jitsu in my opinion, and I’ve seen him put on his back before as well. I want to see Romanov vs a good grappler, but this is not the matchup. Romanov has gotten tired when fights hit the later rounds & his style is super high paced and wild. He has finished all his wins and has seven submissions & five KO/TKO’s.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Age: 35
Height: 6’1
Weight: 257
Reach: 75”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 6-4
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +290
Marco Rogerio de Lima will be looking for two wins in a row for the first time since 2014. He has been trading wins & losses for five years and is coming off a win in February. De Lima was able to knockout Ben Sosoli his last time out with relative ease. Pezao is 2-1 in the UFC at HW. If he can defeat Romanov, he probably will get a crack at a top 15 opponent. De Lima is a power Muay Thai striker and starts quickly. He has nasty low kicks & kicks to the body. He will put 100% power into the kicks, and really chops down the legs of fighters. I see those leg kicks potentially being very effective. He keeps a high guard & will explode in with left hook, straight-right hand combinations. He keeps good pressure on opponents, and did a good job forcing Wieczorek to have to circle with his back near the cage. He keeps a high guard & does a good job of returning with straight-right hands after he blocks a shot. He will throw an overhand right, left uppercut combo. He is at his best when he’s backing fighters up throwing in combination & finishing with low kicks. He will occasionally go high with kicks, but I don’t think he will this fight. He is dangerous when he lets his hands go in close range & he will have a hand speed advantage in this fight. He has 12 career KO/TKO’s. He has a good chin & has only been finished by KO one time.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima has really struggled with grapplers throughout his career. All four of his UFC losses have come via submission. De Lima has 36% takedown defense in the UFC. I have seen him taken down in space with single legs, and in the clinch against the cage. Once he’s put on his back, he makes a lot of bad decisions. De Lima tries to be active with his guard, but his submission setups are super slow. I have seen him try to roll for leg locks in multiple fights, and his opponent just take his back. Nikita Krylov was able to take his back that way and submit him quickly after with a rear naked choke. In his fight with Gadzhimurad Antigulov, a pure grappler, de Lima was taken down less than 20 seconds into the fight. Antigulov was able to progress to mount with ease, snatched up the neck in a guillotine, and had de Lima tapping shortly after. De Lima isn’t an active wrestler himself. He has three takedowns in his entire UFC career, all in the same fight vs Adam Wieczorek. It’s interesting though, because De Lima actually tried to take down Struve also after dropping and controlling him the entire first round. Struve was able to reverse and trip him in the clinch, and it was elementary after that. He methodically passed to side control, locked in an arm triangle and closed the show. De Lima is heavy when he can get on top. He isn’t very dangerous, but he can hold fighters down and stays in full guard or half guard and chips away.
De Lima probably needs a knockout or guillotine to win this fight. Romanov is going to look to close the distance and slam De Lima to the ground where he can maul him from top control. If Romanov looks to keep doing what he has been doing, he should win this fight and probably dominate.
Romanov is my favorite play on the slate, and he is a core play for me. He is going to look to take Rogerio down early and finish him with GNP or a submission. I think he can and will do that and he has the best chance at 100+ as well as the highest ceiling on the slate. He scored 148 DK points in his UFC debut and this is the matchup the UFC scheduled for him originally. I think he has similar success here and this is an all-in fight with him being close to an all-in type play. If Rogerio does win this fight, I think he finishes early as well and he would break the slate at his price. Any lineup I don’t have Romanov in, I will probably be starting with Rogerio. GPP only for Rogerio though and even with a low floor I am fine using Romanov in cash games.
Winner – Alexandr Romanov via 1st round (T)KO
Giga Chikadze $9,300 vs Jamey Simmons $6,900
Giga Chikadze
Age: 32
Height: 6’0
Weight: 145
Reach: 74”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Georgia
UFC Record: 4-0
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -600
Giga Chikadze is making his fourth appearance of the year and fighting for the second time in less than a month. He is a huge favorite here as he welcomes the UFC newcomer, Jamey Simmons. Chikadze has been a bit of an over achiever so far in his UFC career. He has won three fights where he was the underdog going in and is undefeated at 4-0. He is a switch stance fighter with elite speed. He likes to walk fighters down, stay light on his feet, and try to pull counter. He usually is in southpaw stance initially. He has a nasty jab, a good one-two & devastating kicks. He has a really nice pull counter straight & left hook. He isn’t an overly punch heavy guy & doesn’t thrown many punch combos at all. Chikadze is very kick heavy. He has nasty front & round kicks to the body & head. He has a nasty counter front knee & will throw nice flying knees. He will beautiful throw question mark kicks to the head. He will throw axe kicks, as well as spinning kicks to the head. Chikadze also loves to throw rolling thunder kicks at the end of rounds. Chikadze’s left kick is a hammer. He has finished multiple opponents other that kick. In his fight with Austin Springer, he was not setting the kick up well & getting them caught & taken down. I’m not sure Chikadze can be effective with his kick happy style & poor takedown defense in MMA. His defense is very good & if an opponent wants to try to be aggressive, he will slip rip & knock them out. Fighters in MMA have to respect his striking, not exchange & look for takedowns. Chikadze has 5 KO/TKO’s. Chikadze has been finished a couple times in kickboxing but has a strong chin.
Giga Chikadze is not a good grappler. He throws a lot of kicks which make it easy to take him down. He also was getting double legged vs Brandon Davis who isn’t a good wrestler. On the mat, Chikadze looks very raw. He was allowing Davis to mount and move to dominant positions very easily. He did sweep Davis once, and landed some decent ground & pound. Chikadze was able to use an omaplata to stand up vs Austin Springer. In this fight he is going to want to stay off his back.
Jamey Simmons
Age: 28
Height: 5’6
Weight: 145
Reach: N/A
Gym: Pura Vida BJJ & MMA
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +450
Jamey Simmons is getting the short notice call here & looking to pull the big upset. I’m not sure why they set this fight up out of the blue. You would think a 4-0 UFC opponent would want a bigger named opponent, but maybe Giga just wanted to fight right away. It’s going to be a tough fight for Jamey Simmons. Simmons is a 5’5 FW taking on a guy in Giga who is 6’0 tall. It will look reminiscent of the Irwin Rivera fight. On the feet, Simmons is shifty, and sits on the outside, hands high and looks to time level changes. He doesn’t really have great or dangerous striking. He will try to be in & out. He will jab to the body. He has good round kicks to the body. Simmons has a really fast, powerful straight-right hand. He had a pretty sweet knockout in his last fight with that strike. Simmons will use hooks & overhands, or superman punches to close the distance and get inside. I do feel that he is going to get countered coming in and probably will have to take some damage to eventually implement his game. He isn’t going to look to exchange or stay on the feet for long with Chikadze. He needs to use feints, fakes, and his quickness to back Chikadze up and take him down. Simmons has four knockouts, but most are on the ground. Simmons has gotten knocked out one time before. He ducked right into a knee going for a single leg and was put to sleep in 13 seconds against Jake Childers.
Jamey Simmons is very quick and a strong grappler. He is aggressive with his grappling as well. He looks to immediately shoot in, close the distance and wrestle. Simmons has a really nice single leg. He finishes it well, but also will use it to get into the clinch and work takedowns against the cage. Simmons is a dog and will constantly work the grappling, mat return opponents and just maul them. Simmons has slam knockouts and will hit big double leg slams. If fighters threaten him with an armbar or triangle, he will try to slam his way out. Simmons has been guillotined in the past. Simmons doesn’t have the best top control when he gets on top, but he tires guys out, takes the back and has a few rear naked chokes in his amateur career. Simmons hasn’t gotten a submission yet as a pro. Simmons can push a pace & has good cardio. This will be a huge step up for Simmons but also a big opportunity.
This fight was put together last minute, and Simmons will be making his UFC debut here. Simmons looks like he has the power edge here and the wrestling edge as well. His wrestling doesn’t look good, but it is something he should look to in this spot. Chikadze has a big edge on the feet though and I think he can keep the fight there more than it’s on the mat. He hasn’t been a KO guy in the UFC yet, but I will pick him to get his first UFC knockout this weekend.
I have never been interested in rostering Giga on DraftKings. Even when he was a huge favorite as an underdog salary, and he was 70+% owned. However, I do have interest in Giga this week because I think he gets a knockout. It could come early as well so I am ok paying up for him as the highest priced guy in any format as a -600 favorite. Giga ITD is -160 and for him to win in round 1 is lined at +165. All those make him a solid play, but if he doesn’t get the finish, he probably won’t come near 10x his $9.3k salary. Simmons is in play for the $100k if you think he can get a lucky KO here because he will be 5% owned. He will be a fade for me though.
Winner – Giga Chikadze via 1st round (T)KO
Bevon Lewis $8,200 vs Trevin Giles $8,000
Bevon Lewis
Age: 29
Height: 6’3
Weight: 185
Reach: 79”
Gym: Jackson Wink MMA
From: Georgia
UFC Record: 1-2
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -115
Bevon Lewis is making his first appearance since January of 2020. The last time we saw Lewis he was picking up his first UFC win, a decision victory over Dequan Townsend. Prior to joining the UFC, he was undefeated, but started his career 0-2. Even though Lewis picked up the win vs Townsend, he seems to not have fully recovered from his first MMA loss to Uriah Hall. He has become very gun shy & low volume, lacking the confidence he used to have. Lewis is a good athlete. He’s fast & long and tries to stay on the outside. Lewis will feint the jab or throw the jab not even to land, just to skip into range and come with the two. He has a pretty fast counter straight-right hand. Lewis is good at landing that straight, slipping the return and coming back with more shots. Lewis has a good check left hook. He rarely goes first with punches and is a counter striker. Lewis will throw some nice kicks. He has pretty good low kicks. Lewis will throw some occasional body & high kicks. Lewis doesn’t like trading. He isn’t comfortable in the pocket. In his fight with Darren Stewart, he got chewed up with low kicks.
Bevon Lewis’s style is a bit boring. Almost all his fights end up being a lot of cage grinding. Lewis will hold fighters against the cage with over/unders, throw some knees, dirty box & elbow. He is good at ducking under & getting the clinch in exchanges. Lewis has pretty creative clinch entries. He held Townsend against the cage & won that way in his last match. He doesn’t really push the issue for takedowns. Lewis has no submission wins or losses. His cardio is pretty questionable.
Trevin Giles
Age: 28
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: War Training Center
From: Texas
UFC Record: 3-2
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -105
Trevin Giles will try to make it to the cage again after a scare his last time out. Giles was all ready to fight, and right before he was set to walk out to the cage he had a panic attack and passed out. The fight was cancelled, but he’s ready to give it another go here against Bevon Lewis. Giles has flashy striking & I think it is kind of overrated. Giles does have a very nice jab, is light on his feet & has good movement. He likes to stay long & work behind one-twos to the head and body. He will throw a really nice rear uppercut & left hook, straight-right combo as well. He has very fast hand speed and controls distance well. The issue I have seen with Giles’ striking in his last two matchups though is he doesn’t like to exchange in the pocket. He holds his hands low & relies on using fast feet, potshotting & sliding in & out of range to avoid shots. Giles doesn’t go first a lot either & can be in low volume fights. He can be hard to hit, but if opponents can pressure & back him up or get in range where they can exchange, Giles usually will look to duck under for the clinch takedown. Even with a fighter like Gerald Meerschaert who isn’t a very dangerous striker, Giles instead of just sticking & moving decided to go for takedowns. I just think Giles knows he’s hittable & doesn’t have big faith in his chin. Giles is predominately someone who works the hands. He will throw some leg & body kicks when he loosens up & can hide them at the end of combinations, but not as much as he should. In his match with Zak Cummings, he got caught with a shot that put him down in round three. He is definitely hittable when opponents force him to exchange. Giles is not someone who looks for the knockout. He has 5 KO/TKO’s but mostly on the ground.
Trevin Giles recently has become a brown belt in Jiu-Jitsu. In Giles’ last match it was essentially a grappling affair. Giles likes to clinch up when opponents get too close to him & dump them with body locks and trips. He has solid double legs & thudding ground and pound. He will throw big shots from inside his opponent’s guard & can finish fights with hammerfists. He likes to move to side control & the crucifix position. He will force opponents to give their backs & then unload brutal shots from the wrestling ride position. He knocked James Bochnovic out extremely bad with G&P. He has solid top control & is good at being faster in scrambles. He will take the back in scrambles & lock in rear naked chokes. He has two rear naked chokes. He also has an arm triangle, armbar, and inverted triangle. He can keep a very high pace & really put a beating on opponents. He is excellent in top position. In his match with GM3, after getting takedowns, he was outsmarted on the ground. Meerschaert was allowing Giles to move into dominant positions like side control or the mount only to get sweeps. Meerschaert was able to hit multiple sweeps & have some top control of his own. Eventually he caught Giles in a guillotine & forced him to tap out. That’s now two times he’s been submitted via guillotine. Giles is a rear naked choke guy with five submission victories.
I think Lewis is the more talented striker here and he looks like a decent wrestler as well. However, I really feel like the knockout he took from Hall ruined his confidence and he doesn’t look as comfortable on the feet and he isn’t willing to let his hands go. Giles can keep this fight close anywhere and if he can get takedowns of his own, I think he can have success in top position. This will probably be a slower-paced striking match though that could go either way. Dog or pass if the line moves, but I will lean with Giles.
This is going to be a full fade fight for me on DraftKings. I don’t see this taking place at a high pace so without a finish I doubt either guy wins somebody $100k. Either guy could land a KO here and they are in play for that reason. I just don’t want to invest in that outcome, and I see this going all 15-minutes. Full fade on both sides for me with 20 or less lineups. Giles would be my preferred play if I had to choose.
Winner – Trevin Giles via Split Decision
Yan Xiaonan $8,300 vs Claudia Gadelha $7,900
Yan Xiaonan
Age: 31
Height: 5’5
Weight: 115
Reach: 63”
Gym: China Top Team
From: China
UFC Record: 5-0
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -145
Yan Xiaonan is looking for the biggest win of her career as she takes on Claudia Gadelha. Xiaonan has ran off five wins in a row to start her UFC career, and if she wins here she will be right there for the title shot. Xiaonan is a powerful striker. She is light on her feet & has a sideways karate type stance. She likes to use lateral movement & walk opponents into her power. She has nice inside, outside leg kicks, and a nice jab. She has a very nice left hook, and she throws it often. She will throw a nice left hook, straight-right hand combination. I feel her straight & overhand right lead are more accurate than her left hook. She has a nice jab, right hook combination. She is fast & closes the distance quickly. She has a good chin & believes in that and her power in the pocket. She will plant her feet & trade. She is very good at landing her left hook, straight-right hand combination in the pocket. She has nice kicks. She will throw nice round kicks to the body & head. Her best kick is probably her front leg hook kick. She will throw it to the body & head very quickly with nice power. She will attack with that kick as an oblique kick to the knees as well. She will throw nice spinning backfists & will try to mix them into combinations. Overall, she has very good footwork and distance control. She’s able to land, get out, and angle off the cage well. I do feel that opponents will have success with leg kicks, and not many have tried them. She also gets tired & in round three opponents are able to start walking her down, jam her kicks and make her fight off the back foot. She isn’t as good fighting backwards, and that’s when she can get a bit sloppy with her defense & hittable. She seems to lose the pop on her punches as the fight goes on, because fighters are comfortable just eating her shots & walking forward. She has 5 KO/TKO victories, but none since entering the UFC. She has never been finished by strike.
Xiaonan is not a grappler but did finally get a takedown in her last match. She hit a nice clinch takedown, but that’s usually not her thing. She is purely a striker and won’t look to go in the clinch either. There is a lot of red flags with grappling for Xiaonan. She was taken down in the clinch by Angela Hill & controlled in the clinch & taken down multiple times against Kailan Curran. Yan has poor takedown defense, doesn’t dig underhooks or work off the cage well. She also looks weak in clinches. Off her back, she doesn’t look good. She doesn’t have great get-ups, to go with a leaky guard. She was able to get-up fairly quickly after the takedown against Hill, but if Gadelha takes her down I don’t see her getting up. Xiaonan was able to hit a takedown of her own against Hill in that round but got put in a triangle herself & saved by the bell. Xiaonan is going to have a big cardio advantage.
Claudia Gadelha
Age: 31
Height: 5’4
Weight: 115
Reach: 63.5”
Gym: Nick Catone MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 7-4
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +125
Claudia Gadelha got the win by the skin of her teeth her last time out. She snuck away with a controversial split decision victory over Angela Hill. Gadelha is a legend in the game & still hanging around having won back to back fights. She is a slight underdog here as she tries to halt the momentum of Yan Xiaonan. Gadelha as a striker does nothing flashy but she is effective. Gadelha is fast with her hands and entries into her punching combos. She throws a very nice straight-right hand, left hook and left uppercut combos. She has nice elbows in close and will sit in the pocket and throw down against anyone. She is awesome exiting and entering the clinch with elbows and punches and they have big power. She is comfortable in exchanges and throws hard hooks. She has good overhand rights and wide left hooks. She will throw some decent body & head kicks occasionally. Gadelha has 2 KO/TKO’s. She is super tough with a great chin and has never been finished. She did get dropped hard in the second round of her last match.
Claudia Gadelha is an elite grappler, and bruising wrestler. She will have a massive advantage in the grappling realm in this fight. She is very strong in the clinch. She does a great job of using her hooks to close the distance and grab the Muay Thai clinch where she throws brutal elbows, punches & knees. She is very strong in the clinch with body lock trips and throws. She is explosive with double leg takedowns and does a good job of getting them against the cage or reactively in space. She is very heavy on top with great guard passing. She does a great job of getting to side control where she lands hard elbows. She does a good job of taking the back and getting rear naked chokes. She has nice armbars as well. She hasn’t gotten very many submissions in the UFC more relying on ground & pound and control, but she does have 7 career submissions. The main issue with Gadelha these days is her gas tank depletes really quickly and she isn’t what she used to be.
Xiaonan is a high-paced striker who is one of the better strikers in WMMA. She will have the edge in the striking and Gadelha should have the edge on the mat. Gadelha is a good wrestler and grappler, but she has cardio issues and if she wrestles heavy in round 1, I am not sure she can do that for another two rounds. She is still going to need to look to slow this fight down with takedowns or holding Xiaonan against the fence, but it is going to be hard for her to keep up with Xiaonan’s pace. Gadelha might look like the better fighter because of her wrestling in round 1 but I don’t see her winning rounds 2 or 3 and I could also see Xiaonan putting it to her on the feet in the 1st too.
I like both sides of this fight for DraftKings, but Yan is my preferred play of the two. Yan averages 6.72 significant strikes landed per minute compared to 3.4 from Gadelha. Gadelha does have the wrestling edge and she lands 3.13 takedowns per 15-minutes at a 45% clip. Gadelha does have a grappling advantage against most women and if she wins that is what it will come from. I think she will pay off this salary if she gets her hand raised, so I do like her in all formats if you think she wins. I don’t trust that she has the gas tank to win at least two rounds with heavy wrestling though so that is why I like Yan and I think Yan can pick Gadelha apart while the fight is standing and possibly drop her and get a TKO. She has landed 93 or more sig strikes in 4 of her 5 UFC fights so far and I would expect high output from her again here if she gets her hand raised.
Winner – Yan Xiaonan via Unanimous Decision
Brendan Allen $8,400 vs Ian Heinisch $7,800
Brendan Allen
Age: 24
Height: 6’2
Weight: 185
Reach: 77”
Gym: Sanford MMA
From: Louisiana
UFC Record: 3-0
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -110
In this next fight we have a good one. Brendan Allen & Ian Heinisch are finally going to throw down after years of buildup. These two were supposed to matchup in the LFA, and in the UFC previously, but it just has never materialized, but finally it’s about to go down. Allen has harbored some resentment for Heinisch for the fights not going down. Heinisch’s last fight where he KO’d the training partner & good friend of Allen, Gerald Meerschaert didn’t help either. This is a bit of a grudge match. Allen has changed things up a bit & went to Sanford MMA for this camp. Working with Henry Hooft, & all the training partners he has available, I’m sure he will have made some improvement. On the feet, Allen has never been a skilled guy. He just is big for the division, very aggressive & plows forward throwing heavy shots. Allen does have power in his hands & likes to use head movement to get inside & throw hooks. He will paw a jab out there to find his range. Allen will throw some nice body shots and lead hooks. He has good round kicks to the body. Allen is a powerful dude. He has four KO/TKO’s, but a lot are ground & pound finishes. Allen has never been finished by strikes & is a durable guy.
Brendan Allen is a mauler. He presses forward, backs fighters to the cage & is nasty in the clinch. Allen has really good front knees to the body & head. He dropped Kyle Daukaus with a couple slick Muay Thai knees. He has strong body lock takedowns. Allen will get double unders & just muscle fighters to the mat. He has good chain wrestling against the cage but isn’t a guy who really changes levels & shoots takedowns. Allen has pretty good takedown defense. He will attack guillotines & use them to reverse to top position. Once Allen is on top, he has really good top pressure, passing ability and ground & pound. Allen has a tendency to attack guillotines or leg locks that put him on bottom. He does stay heavy on the neck when opponents try to stand up and has the cardio to grapple hard for extended periods. Allen isn’t horrible on bottom and will hit some sweeps. He used an omaplata to get to top position his last fight, but Kevin Holland cut him open with an elbow, and almost caught him in a rear naked choke. Allen was able to dog Holland out, and submit him which is tough to do. Allen loves to take the back & hit rear naked chokes. He has seven submissions in his career. Kyle Daukaus also had a lot of success in top position in their fight. He was able to take Allen’s back and really dominated the third round. Allen showed a lot of toughness because he was fighting through several face fractures. Allen is a dog & has very good cardio.
Ian Heinisch
Age: 32
Height: 5’11
Weight: 185
Reach: 72”
Gym: Genesis Training Center
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 3-2
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -110
Ian Heinisch got off the snide his last fight, running through GM3 in the first round. He caught him with a big shot, followed up with some ground & pound and the fight was over. With a victory in this spot Heinisch will get back to where he was when he started 2-0 in the UFC. Heinisch has historically done well with grapplers which is what Allen is. On the feet, he is going to probably have a slight advantage in this matchup. Heinisch is a wrestler with power on the feet. His striking isn’t the greatest. Heinisch is an explosive finisher who goes in there to take his opponent’s head off. He is very athletic & puts the pressure on right away. He is constantly feinting the takedown & trying to come over the top with hooks & overhands. He has nice round & front kicks to the body. He can throw the kicks without setting them up and be hit clean or taken down off them. He does a great job of closing the distance and throwing a left hook into a double leg or faking a double leg and coming over the top with his right hand. He has massive power, and one shot can put fighters completely unconscious. He has 4 career KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished by strikes and is a rough and rugged fighter who I think needs to be put out to stop him.
Heinisch is a great wrestler. He is very physically strong & wears fighters out in extended grappling situations. He is always attacking & aggressive with his Jiu-Jitsu. He is a former division ll college wrestler, and he has explosive double leg shots. He does a great job of setting his shots up with punches. He will stalk opponents to the cage, close the distance and shoot double and single leg shots. When he takes fighters down, he works quickly and likes to get to half guard where he will rain down heavy elbows. He can put a fighter unconscious with elbows and is a scary individual in top position. He does a great job of putting his opponents head against the cage & throwing G&P where it’s hard to throw up submissions. He has good chokes and will attack with guillotines and front chokes. He jumped on a guillotine against Cesar Ferreira, and almost finished. He also almost finished an armbar at the end of round 1. When he was taken down, he was able to attack with submissions & eventually scramble to his feet. He wore Ferreira out and took over down the stretch in the fight. He did the same to Shoe Face. He was submitted by Maluko Perez. He has 2 submissions & one submission loss.
This is mainly going to be a striker vs grappler matchup. Heinisch has the edge on the feet, and the advantage on the ground goes to Allen. Allen shouldn’t look to stand too long with Heinisch, so he will go for takedowns early and often. Heinisch can knock Allen out in any round, but he is going to be spending a lot of time trying to stuff takedowns or get back to his feet, and if Allen can get him down then he is live for a submission. This is a close fight, but I would have slightly favored Allen because I think he will be able to dictate where this fight takes place.
This is a good GPP fight for both sides. Allen for his grappling upside and Heinisch for his knockout potential. Heinisch is coming off a 110-point win with a round 1 KO and he does have the striking advantage here, and Allen is hittable. That was his only high DraftKings score though and I don’t see Allen accepting a striking match here. That makes Allen my preferred play and he has scored 93, 106, and 110 in his 3 UFC wins. We don’t have to be all-in on this fight because if it goes to a decision I think only Allen would have the potential to score highly so for me Heinisch is KO or bust for the $100k and that will keep me underweight to him but overweight on Allen.
Winner – Brendan Allen via 2nd round Submission
Raoni Barcelos $9,100 vs Khalid Taha $7,100
Raoni Barcelos
Age: 35
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Rizzo RVT
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 4-0
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -365
The Brazilian wrecking machine Raoni Barcelos is returning to the octagon, and I can’t wait. Barcelos is one of the best unranked fighters in the UFC and a bad dude. Barcelos has a perfect 4-0 UFC record & has won 8 fights in a row. Barcelos was not expected to fight on this card but is replacing Jack Shore. Barcelos is an impressive striker. He is a great athlete and has very good movement. He has excellent feints, good head movement & very fast in & out. He is excellent at cutting off the cage & making his opponents fight with their backs near the fence. He has a great jab & a very good one-two. He has heavy leg kicks. He has nice hook combos. He can close distance very quickly with his right hook. He has a nasty uppercut. He will feint the level change & come up with the uppercut. He will also grab a single leg, let go & come up with an uppercut. He will throw an uppercut, straight-right hand or uppercut, left hook. He has very fast hand speed & is very explosive. He will throw the occasional body kick, along with round & spinning kicks to the head. He can be hit if opponents can time when he enters, but his defense is very sound. He has big power & has 7 KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished by strikes.
Raoni Barcelos is a strong wrestler & Jiu-Jitsu world champion. He has competed on the Brazilian national wrestling team and took silver at the pan games in 2006. He has a very good double leg. He has great timing on it, and his uppercut disguises it up extremely well. He has good body lock takedowns and good singles as well. He will takedown opponents easily when he gets them against the cage. When he gets top position, he has nasty elbows. He has good guard passing & back takes. He won his last fight with Said Nurmagomedov by controlling the back. He will get the rear naked choke. He has good takedown defense, and I haven’t seen very many people shoot on him. In his lone loss, he was taken down, gave his back trying to stand up & was submitted by rear naked choke. Barcelos has two submissions.
Khalid Taha
Age: 27
Height: 5’5
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: Arena Dortmund
From: Germany
UFC Record: 1-1-1
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: 1NC
Betting Odds: +305
Khalid Taha is making his return to the cage after over a year away from the octagon. Taha was suspended by USADA following his last fight, and his win was changed to a no contest. The substance he failed for was a diuretic, so he was only suspended for one year. Taha is technically 2-1 in the UFC, but on paper he has a 1-1-1 record. Taha is a solid striker. He has heavy leg kicks, and a nice jab. He has nice one-twos. He will throw a very powerful straight-right hand lead. He will throw a lot of overhand rights. He will throw a left hook to the body, to a straight-left hand, right hook combination. He likes to throw front kicks to the body. He is fast, but he is a bit obvious and I feel Barcelos is faster, and possibly will be able to move & counter with kicks. Taha holds his left hand low. Taha is dangerous & inside will swing wild hooks and uppercuts. He hits hard & has to be respected on the feet. He has 8 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished with strikes.
Taha is not an active offensive grappler. I haven’t seen him shoot any takedowns from range. I have seen Taha get a body lock takedowns & have some top control from half guard. He attacks the body with knees & short punches, but doesn’t posture up, and do much damage. He does more damage with G&P when standing up inside opponent’s guards. He is solid at pressure passing directly into side control and looking for the back. Overall, he won’t look to wrestle very often, and lost his UFC debut by being taken down. He is explosive & has decent get-ups, but his technique on his back isn’t great. He is harder to takedown against the cage & likely will be the bigger fighter in this match. Once he gasses he doesn’t have the greatest ability to stand up. He was grinded out by Narimani but Nad is a 145er. He will use submissions if he’s in his guard to create scrambles to stand up. He got caught with a guillotine trying to stand up in a recent fight in Rizin. Taha is going to be trying to defend takedowns in this fight & knock Barcelos out. He needs to get into boxing range effectively with feints & then get out. He can’t stay at kicking range & has to pressure but can’t give up the takedowns or clinch. Taha has 2 submissions & has been submitted twice himself.
Barcelos is taking this fight on short notice so maybe cardio is a worry here. However, skill-wise, Barcelos has the edge wherever this fight goes, and this is just a bad matchup for Taha. Barcelos is the better striker and he strikes at a higher pace, and he has a huge edge on the mat as well. This is a KO or bust fight for Taha and Barcelos can win by TKO, sub, or a clear decision.
Taha is in play for GPPs because of his KO potential and if he gets an early KO, he breaks the slate. If he doesn’t get the KO, then he probably doesn’t score well, and I doubt he would even win. That will make Taha mostly a fade for me with maybe 1-2 shots out of 20 at most. Barcelos is my preferred play because of his wrestling/grappling upside and if he comes in with a grappling-heavy game plan then I think he can score well even in a decision win. He is a favorite that I will be mixing in and I will try to be in line with or overweight to the field. I do like a handful of the expensive guys though so I will probably make different combos based on what fits.
Winner – Raoni Barcelos via 2nd round Submission
Tanner Boser $8,900 vs Andrei Arlovski $7,300
Tanner Boser
Age: 29
Height: 6’2
Weight: 235
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: Hayabusa Training Centre
From: Canada
UFC Record: 3-1
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -290
Tanner Boser is a low volume striker. He likes to work behind kicks & counter with punches. He will throw some occasional jabs to the head & body. He throws elbows as opponents try to close the distance. Boser has nasty leg kicks inside & outside. This is probably the best part of his game. He will throw heavy round & front kicks to the body & head. He has nice one-twos as opponents try to close the distance. He will throw counter hooks moving backwards, along with overhand rights. Boser is pretty flat footed & can come up short with a lot of his shots. He doesn’t tend to go first much & likes to be on the outside. That could be a problem for him in this fight against a taller opponent. Boser does pick it up as the fight goes on usually. He will cut the cage off by switching stances and throw more volume. He is hittable, but he has a great chin. I have seen him take some bombs & show nothing. He has 9 KO/TKO’s, but definitely more of a volume fighter. His last two fights he had pretty disgusting KO’s though. He has lost some decisions that I think were a bit raw deals & he could easily have a better record. He has been knocked out one time in his career.
Boser is not an offensive grappler. I haven’t seen him shoot many, if any takedowns at all or look for the clinch. He shows good balance & takedown defense against the cage. He will dig solid double underhooks to circle off the cage & attack with knees. Denis Smoldarev, who’s a strong wrestler, was able to time some double leg takedowns, but Boser also showed a strong sprawl. Boser isn’t bad off his back. He has decent get-ups & will attack with kimuras. Boser has good cardio & will go to work off the breaks. His takedown defense to me is pretty good. He isn’t someone who will work on top much. He has two rear naked choke submissions early in his career. He has never been submitted.
Andrei Arlovski
Age: 41
Height: 6’3
Weight: 238
Reach: 77”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Belarus
UFC Record: 18-13-1
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +245
Andrei Arlovski still is a good striker. He has started to implement a lot of trickiness & stance switching into his game. He has a solid jab, and nice leg kicks. He will throw oblique kicks to the legs. He has a nice straight & right hook lead. He will throw a right hook, left uppercut, right hook combination. He has nice spinning backfists. He has solid round kicks to the body & head. He will throw spinning back & hook kicks to the body & head. He had a clear speed advantage over Ben Rothwell & took advantage of it. Arlovski worked off the jab to create combinations and was even able to mix in a lot of spinning attacks. He was able to back Rothwell up with the jab, and I think he has to do that in this matchup also. He was able to stun Rothwell multiple times but couldn’t put him away. Arlovski doesn’t have the same finishing ability he used to have & is much less risky in his fights. Due to this he hasn’t been knocked out himself as much, but he doesn’t get many finishes either. He hasn’t gotten a knockout since 2015. Arlovski does have 17 career knockouts. His durability is kind of a mystery. It seemed as if his chin had gone completely, but in recent fights he has ate bombs with no issues. He has only been finished by strikes 4 times since 2011. He has been finished 12 times by KO/TKO.
Andrei Arlovski has gotten better as a grappler in recent years, but I don’t envision him using it much here. Arlovski has gotten more clinch heavy as he’s gotten older. He likes to slow things down, control opponents against the cage, and just chip away with short shots. Arlovski has nice trips and throws in the clinch. He is tricky with his takedowns. He hasn’t shown much ability to control or do damage in top position though. Arlovski also isn’t going to look for a submission. Arlovski hasn’t earned a submission victory since 2005. He has only been submitted one time. Arlovski can slow down in fights & get sloppy in round three.
Boser looked like he has really turned a corner lately and he looks dangerous now. This fight should stay standing as long as it lasts and Boser can point fight his way to a decision and chop down Arlovski’s leg along the way, or he can just knock Arlovski out if he wants to fight as aggressive as he has in his last two fights. Boser is the pick and he is one of the better parlay options on the card at this price.
Boser is my preferred play in all formats and Arlovski will be a fade for me. You can play Arlovski for the KO potential since he is a HW, but I think Boser is durable enough and I don’t see Arlovski throwing the volume to score highly in a close decision win. Boser can land decent volume here and he is live for a KO as well. I also think he could land a round of volume and win with a KO towards the end of the 1st round and scoring all the round points plus the bonus. I will probably look to go overweight or in line with the field on Boser, but he will be mixed around with the other big favorites. If he doesn’t get a KO, then I don’t see him scoring 100+ so we are relying on the knockout for him to get us a tournament win.
Winner – Tanner Boser via 1st round (T)KO
Thiago Santos $8,800 vs Glover Teixeira $7,400
Thiago Santos
Age: 36
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Tata Fight Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 13-6
Last Fought: 1 Year 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -240
Thiago Santos is finally making his return to the octagon after over a year away. Santos suffered a brutal knee injury tearing multiple ligaments, but still battled on valiantly dropping a close split decision to Jon Jones at the end of the night. That performance along with his knockout of the current champion Jan Blachowicz, has fans thinking Santos has a real chance at being the next UFC LHW champion. Santos is a devastating striker, and one of the best kickers in the sport. His hands are not as good, but he has power and is very aggressive. He showed improvements to his hands in his last fight. He hurt Manuwa with a big right hand and finished him with a left uppercut, right hook, left hook combination. He likes to close the distance with powerful, leaping hooks. He has a good, long left hook, and will try to follow it up with a rear right uppercut. Santos’ switch kick is one of the most powerful strikes in MMA. He will fold fighters with body kicks and put them to sleep with head kicks. He likes to use inside leg kicks to setup his left kick to the body, and if he can land it clean the fight is most likely over. Santos is usually the fighter who likes to move forward, but he will use stance switching to setup counter kicks. He does a good job of switching to southpaw to give a little ground to his opponent, and immediately landing the left kick as they come forward. Santos also has a nasty spinning hook kick. He finished Jack Marshman with it, and it’s a scary technique. Santos is hittable, and he doesn’t take shots well. He can get too over-aggressive with his hands and get countered and clipped. He also is very bad defensively against the cage. He doesn’t keep a high guard and instead tries to fight out of it by throwing wide hooks. It gives opponents chances to counter and hurt him. Santos has 14 KO/TKO’s in his career and been finished 3 times by strikes himself.
Santos has improved his grappling and is now a solid wrestler. He does a good job of using punches & kicks to back his opponents to the fence where he will get easy double legs. On top, he will throw brutal ground & pound. He has nasty elbows to the body & head and will throw heavy hammerfists. He has good control in top position, and when he gets on top of opponents, he definitely does damage. He isn’t a submission threat and will really only look for ground & pound. Santos has good takedown defense himself. He will sprawl on attempts and does a good job of making opponents pay with short elbows when they attempt to take him down. He battered Jack Hermansson with shots as he tried to take him down before finishing him. Santos can get off balance when he throws certain kicks, and Anthony Smith was able to capitalize and move directly into mount off a slip. He can be exploited on the ground off his back. Eric Spicely was able to quickly submit him & he doesn’t want to be on his back with Teixeira on top of him. Santos has only 1 career submission & has been submitted twice. Santos does tend to gas & I don’t see him being able to keep the same pace 5 rounds. He has finished 16 of his 21 wins & been finished in 5 of his 6 losses.
Glover Teixeira
Age: 41
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Teixeira MMA & Fitness
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 14-5
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +200
The old man Glover Teixeira enters yet another spot looking to play spoiler. Teixeira has opened as the underdog in three of his last four fights & won all three. Glover has won two fights already in 2020. Teixeira will plod forward & look for boxing combinations. He sets most of his offense up off the jab. He will throw a jab, left hook, and nice one-twos. He has a nice jab, overhand right & jab, right hook combination. His straight-right hand is clean & powerful. He will throw a left hook, straight-right hand combination. He will rip the body with big hooks, & then go up to the head. The body shots help disguise his takedown entries. He isn’t nearly as fast as he once was and doesn’t have the head movement he used to have. He is much more stationary & easy to hit. He doesn’t move his head off center line & fighters have been able to slip his jab & counter with uppercuts. He has a nice uppercut himself & times it well to counter opponent’s takedown attempts. When he gets inside he is still very dangerous. He will unload with nasty hooks to the body & head with cracking power. His ability to take a shot is diminished, but he still has a solid chin. He gets rocked badly in a lot of fights but recovered quickly. He has 17 KO/TKO’s himself and has been finished 3 times in his career. I do feel he has the power to hurt Santos if he lands clean.
Teixeira is an awesome grappler. He has great dirty boxing in the clinch, attacking the body & head with big punches. He is a strong wrestler with a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He has a great single leg in space. He does a good job of using the single to push opponents to the cage, change it to a double & dump his opponent. He has good doubles against the cage & body lock trips. He was rocked badly with big elbows when he was in on a double in his last fight. Teixeira has great top control. He likes to get half guard and keep his weight heavy on opponents. He will look for arm triangles while landing short elbows & hammerfists. He will methodically pass to mount, and then the back where he can finish the fight. He is excellent at flattening his opponents out and pounding them out or getting a RNC. He will also move to side control & look for the crucifix position. He has great takedown defense, and he digs good underhooks & has a nice sprawl. He will defend the takedown with a guillotine attempt & he has a great squeeze. He does a great job of controlling the legs when he wraps up the neck giving him the ability to roll into top position. Teixeira has 7 submissions & has never been submitted. He is going to be the bigger more experienced fighter. He has good cardio. The game plan for Teixeira doesn’t change much these days. He is going to try to get inside & use his hooks & uppercuts to setup takedowns. If he gets top position in this fight I think he definitely could get the submission. He can’t show respect to Santos & bite on his feints in the outside. He needs to be aggressive, throw hard & try to touch the weak chin of Santos & or take him down.
This is Santos’ first fight back since his super close title fight loss against Jon Jones. On the feet, Santos should have a big edge in this fight with his speed and power. Teixeira still has solid striking, but he is 41 years old now and the advantages he would have had a few years ago just aren’t there anymore and he will need to look to get this fight to the mat. Teixeira is live for a submission if he can takedowns and I think this fight ends ITD with a Teixeira submission or a Santos knockout. We also don’t know how Santos will look after his ACL repair, so laying this juice could be risky, but the pick is going to be Santos by knockout.
This is going to be an all-in fight for me because it should end ITD. Vegas has FDGTD at -375, and I see this ending with a Santos KO or a Glover submission. Either way, I think the winner scores well and possibly 100+. I would stack this fight in cash games just to lock in the winner because I don’t feel confident enough on either side to run them solo. I am guessing my preferred play will be Teixeira because he has one of the higher and more realistic paths to 100+ as an underdog. I like a lot of favorites so Santos will just be in the mix on which ones fit and if he isn’t in the lineup, then Glover probably will be, so that should give me an overweight approach to Glover. I wouldn’t talk you off not using this fight in a GPP because I could see Santos winning a decision and not scoring enough points. I just won’t be making enough lineups to fade this fight in any of mine.
Winner – Thiago Santos via 2nd round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown & be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building & I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend & enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on Twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks & predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice & fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on Twitter at @BigMarley3.
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