BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC 255 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $20 buy-in & $150k goes to 1st place with $700k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games & look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience & you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player & it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups & 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights, & hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Louis Cosce $9,300 vs Sasha Palatnikov $6,900
Louis Cosce
Age: 25
Height: 5’9
Weight: 170
Reach: 71”
Gym: Lost Boys Jiu-Jitsu
From: California
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -450
Louis Cosce is getting a quick turnaround after lighting it up on the contender series just a couple months ago. Cosce went in there with the most experienced opponent he’d ever faced & once again it didn’t matter. Cosce got him out of there in less than two minutes with a nasty knockout. Cosce has never been out of the first round in his career. 4 of those wins have been in less than one minute & only one of his 7 opponents have extended him past 2 minutes in a fight. There obviously isn’t a lot of footage on Cosce out there. In his fight with Victor Reyna, he seemed pretty basic, but very powerful, athletic, and aggressive. Cosce gets in his opponent’s face from the opening bell & throws his straight-right hand down the pipe with bad intentions. He likes to throw a lead hook to straight-right combination & vice versa. I have seen him get a high kick knockout in the first ten seconds of a fight. I haven’t really seen anyone crack Cosce yet or test his chin. Cosce has shown devastating power though and has finished five of his wins by knockout.
Louis Cosce is short, compact, strong, athletic and looks like he is probably a strong wrestler. He did participate in the cadet freestyle wrestling tournament. Obviously, you haven’t seen much of his grappling in MMA. I have seen him hit a blast double land a few ground & pound shots and knock his opponent out. He has a couple guillotine choke wins on his record. Cosce looks very good, but there are a lot of unknowns as well. Can he keep the pace? Will he be able to battle through adversity? We will find out.
Sasha Palatnikov
Age: 31
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: N/A
Gym: Hong Kong
From: Hong Kong
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +360
Sasha Palatnikov has a tough task in his UFC debut. He comes in here with a record of 5-2 overall. Palatnikov hasn’t faced the toughest competition overall. He did fight Mounir Lazzez but was finished in the first round. Palatnikov is coming off a quick victory two months ago. Palatnikov is a tricky striker & has a really long frame for 170 lbs. Sasha is 6’1 with a long reach, and he has also competed at 185 lbs. Palatnikov has a four-inch height advantage for this fight. He will switch stances, throws a lot of kicks and has nice combos. Palatnikov fights with a weird rhythm and uses a lot of feints & can catch fighters with nice counter jabs or one-twos. Palatnikov has a really nice jab. He will throw a jab or double jab to get into range then follow with the two. Palatnikov does a good job of attacking the body with punches. He has a really nice lead hook. The way Palatnikov can close distance with his jab & straight punches is really nice. He will land that straight and follow with sneaky shovel hooks or uppercuts. His last finish was pretty sweet. Palatnikov has really good speed when he blitzes forward. He throws really heavy low kicks. Palatnikov has nasty front kicks to the body. He will throw some spins to the body and head. Palatnikov’s defense isn’t great. He has good head movement, and tries to slip & rip, but struggles against forward pressure. Palatnikov can look overwhelmed when pressured heavy & panic wrestles. He has been finished by strikes in both of his losses. Palatnikov has two knockouts himself.
Sasha Palatnikov is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu & likes to grapple in his fight. A big issue that Palatnikov needs to address still in his skill set is his wrestling. He has worked hard to improve it, but still doesn’t have very good takedown defense. Fighters who have good level changes & shots will get him down. Palatnikov gives his hips when he blitzes forward. Palatnikov has really good timing on his takedowns. When fighters blitz in or over commit, he is in on the legs. On top, Palatnikov likes to work in side control, and land shots until he can mount or take the back. Palatnikov has fast back takes. His top control overall isn’t really good. He is good at just mixing it up though. He will land some shots and work his way into the clinch work from there. He is always looking to level change and hit takedowns. His cardio is good enough to go for three rounds & that’s his style. When Palatnikov does get taken down, he has good scrambling ability off bottom & is hard to hold down. Palatnikov did get taken down in his fight with UFC fighter Mounir Lazzez. He was able to use the fence to stand up quickly, and then hit a takedown and back take of his own in the second. Lazzez was able to turn in get on top, passed to side control and finished Palatnikov with some brutal ground & pound. Palatnikov has a tough test here against the undefeated Louis Cosce.
Cosce is coming off a KO win on the Contender Series where his brother Orion also had a KO on the same card moving them both to 7-0 with all wins being finishes and all of Louis’ coming in round 1. They were both supposed to fight on this card, and it looks like the UFC is trying to hype this tandem up and get them more wins. Palatnikov is mainly a striker from what I have seen, so this should be a fun fight as long as it lasts, and it might not last long. Cosce comes out of the gates hot looking for the kill and I think he either gets it or gets KO’d himself.
Cosce is the preferred play here and I like him in all formats. He should be the chalk of the card because he is a -470 favorite with a -195 ITD line and a +105 wins in round 1 line. He has never been out of the first round so the general consensus is that he gets a 1st round KO here and scores over 100 DK points. I will have a lot of him as well, but I am not against taking a shot on Palatnikov because he will be sub 10% owned and a KO from him would kill off half the field as well.
Winner – Louis Cosce via 1st round (T)KO
Kyle Daukaus $8,800 vs Dustin Stoltzfus $7,400
Kyle Daukaus
Age: 27
Height: 6’3
Weight: 185
Reach: 76”
Gym: Martinez BJJ
From: Pennsylvania
UFC Record: 0-1
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -320
Kyle Daukaus will be looking to build off a promising UFC debut. He lost a back & forth fight on short notice in a fight of the night effort. Daukaus was able to dominate the third round, even though he was the fighter with a limited training camp. I’m sure he will be hungry to get back in the win column, as that was the first loss of his career. Daukaus isn’t bad on the feet. He is a tough, pressure fighter with solid striking. Daukaus has good boxing. He throws very nice combinations. Daukaus has a very nice straight-right hand. He will throw a left hook right after it. Sometimes Daukaus can overextend on the straight but following with the left hook saves him. He has nice straight punch combinations and switches stances well. He has tight punches in the pocket. He has very nice inside low kicks, front kicks up the middle, and head kicks. Daukaus can be a bit hittable inside. He is very tough though. Daukaus likes to break guys down on the feet but doesn’t go for knockouts. He has zero in his career.
Kyle Daukaus is a nasty submission grappler. He is nasty in the clinch with his knees & elbows. He got a taste of his own medicine vs Brendan Allen. Allen was able to land some big knees up the middle to the head that rocked Daukaus. Daukaus likes to go for the darce. He will look to catch it from everywhere. He is really good at when opponents go for the underhook to get-up from half guard immediately attacking the neck. He uses the front chokes to defend takedowns & reverse position. Daukaus has solid body locks against the cage & is strong on top. He passes very well, gets to dominant positions & finishes the fight. He likes to take the back & has a couple rear naked choke victories. Daukaus has no issues fighting off his back also. He is dangerous with his guard. He has a nasty triangle, good armbars, will attack the legs and sweeps very well. He is very calm in bad positions and is a great scrambler. He out grappled a black belt in his last fight, taking him down three times & never getting taken down. Daukaus also showed great cardio coming in on short notice and still dominating the third round. Daukaus has five darce choke submissions & 3 rear naked chokes.
Dustin Stoltzfus
Age: 29
Height: 5’11
Weight: 185
Reach: 75”
Gym: Franker’s Fight Team
From: Germany
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W10
Betting Odds: +260
Dustin Stoltzfus earned his contract to the UFC in violent fashion. He slammed his opponent on the DWCS series, and broke his arm ending the fight. It was a bit of a freak thing, but it was good enough for Dana White to give him a chance. With a record of 13-1 and solid skills I think he deserves it. Stoltzfus is from Pennsylvania, but trains in Germany. For this camp though, I see him on Instagram at Franker’s Fight Team, and Planet Eater doing his camp in Germany. We will see if that was a good or bad decision. Stoltzfus is a methodical, forward pressure, Muay Thai striker. Stoltzfus likes to break fighters down & is super aggressive. He throws heavy jabs & hard inside, outside low kicks. Stoltzfus uses the jab to get on the inside & throw hammers. Stoltzfus will throw really fast right uppercut, lead hook combos. His hooks on the inside are super powerful and dangerous. He has a nice jab, overhand right. In the pocket, he is willing to trade. Stoltzfus throws nice body & head kicks. He throws them with full power. Stoltzfus has a tendency to load up on his shots. When he does that, he makes himself available to be countered. He is super aggressive and has huge power though, which makes him very dangerous. He will switch stances, has power in both hands, and is a fun fighter to watch. I will say though from southpaw he doesn’t have the best defense and only throws the lead hook and a body kick. Stoltzfus has two career knockouts.
Dustin Stoltzfus isn’t an offensive wrestler in most of his fights. He likes to use his forward pressure to break guys down & force bad takedowns. When he hurts opponents, he will jump on submissions. Stoltzfus has good clinch takedowns. He will work for takedowns when he has fighters against the cage. His takedown defense is the most questionable facet of his game. It doesn’t seem very good & he does like to play off his back. He was taken down on the regional scene, and on his fight on the contender series. He has a decent guard and will throw up subs while throwing hard elbows. Stoltzfus is a good scrambler and quick back taker. He will attack leg locks. He used a leg kick in his last fight to sweep and finish his opponent with the slam. He has some slick submissions from the back mount, such as the twister he hit on Nihad Nasufovic. Stoltzfus has five submissions in his career. Five of his seven finishes are in round one.
This could be a great grappling match between these two. Both guys can strike as well but the best part of both their games is their grappling and submissions. Daukaus looked really good against solid competition in his UFC debut which is why I think he is lined so high in this spot. I don’t know that it is warranted though because Stoltzfus is a really good grappler and he has power on the feet as well. This is dog or pass for me on the betting line with how big of a favorite Daukaus is, but he should probably win this fight more times than he loses it.
I like both sides of this fight, but I expect Daukaus to be popular and Stoltzfus to go overlooked. That kind of makes Stoltzfus my preferred play here but I might end up with close to even exposure between these two. I doubt this gets to half of my total lineups but I could see both guys being around 15-25% owned for me and if I was making 1 LU and taking a shot at that $150k I would just take the lower owned guy in Stoltzfus. Either guy could get a submission here though and there could be a lot of scrambles in this fight. I will make sure to get exposure to both guys but compared to the field I will probably be higher on Stoltzfus and in line with or underweight to Daukaus.
Winner – Kyle Daukaus via Split Decision
Alan Jouban $8,300 vs Jared Gooden $7,900
Alan Jouban
Age: 38
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: Black-house MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 7-5
Last Fought: 1 Year 8 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -150
Alan Jouban is making his return to the octagon after nearly two years away from the sport. At almost 39 years of age that is a big concern to me. Jouban hasn’t been on a good run lately either losing three of his last four. He is going to have a huge experience advantage here as he brings his twelve UFC fights of knowledge against the UFC newcomer Jared Gooden. Jouban is a good, southpaw striker. He can be aggressive, but in this fight, I expect him to use a more point fighting style. He has good lateral movement and walks opponents into his strikes. He has a very nice straight-left hand. He throws it very tight down the middle and can stun & drop opponents with it. He has a good check left hook going backwards. He will throw a right hook, left straight combination. He has a nice inside leg kick, right hook, straight-left hand combination. When he can get his combinations going & feels comfortable going forward, he can be very fun to watch. He has good uppercuts & hooks in the pocket. He has quick hands in close. He landed some nasty elbows to the head in close range vs Ben Saunders. He likes to pull counter with his left hand. He will throw a kick, feint, draw out a shot and counter with his straight-right hand. He dropped Mike Perry that way. He will throw inside, outside leg kicks. He has nice front & round kicks to the body. He has a good round kick to the head. He will throw occasional spinning heel kicks to the head and spinning elbows to the head. He struggles with fighters who walk through his shots & pressure him. He can drop his hands as he circles or enters & can get caught with straight punches & hooks. His durability has been called into question by some, but I don’t think he has a bad chin. He took some big shots from Mike Perry, but he has been taken out in recent fights. He was rocked & submitted by Gunnar Nelson, and TKO’d by Niko Price. He holds his hands low & gets hit with shots he just doesn’t see coming. He has been KO/TKO’d 3 times in his career. He is a finisher himself & has a lot of knockouts. He has 11 KO/TKO’s and will be looking to build off a highlight reel knockout in his last win against Ben Saunders.
Alan Jouban is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and finally showed off some of his grappling in his last match. He hit a couple takedowns on Dwight Grant and took his back very late in the fight. Jouban ended that fight with a flurry of ground & pound as the bell rang. Prior to that, Jouban only had three takedowns in 11 UFC fights. He does throw nice elbows in the clinch, but he usually tries to avoid those positions & fight at range. There is really not much to say about his top game. He has 0 career submissions & hasn’t shown much in terms of top control. He has good takedown defense & has only been taken down 6 times in his UFC career. He has only been submitted one time, and that was after being rocked by Gunnar Nelson an elite black belt.
Jared Gooden
Age: 26
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 76”
Gym: X3 Sports
From: Georgia
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +130
Jared Gooden had his UFC debut delayed by an injury, but it could have been a blessing in disguise. He went from Dwight Grant to Alan Jouban as an opponent, and even though Grant has a win over Jouban, he isn’t as big of a name. Gooden has a big opportunity to jump onto the UFC scene. He is young at 26 years old and fighting out of Georgia. He has won three fights in a row. With a record of 17-4 he definitely has tested himself almost as much as he can on the regional scene. Gooden is a fun fighter to watch & clowns fighters in the octagon. He has good boxing. Gooden throws a really nice jab. He will throw some decent low kicks. He will double and triple up on it. He has a nice one-two. Gooden has a good left hook & fade away left hook. His straight & overhand right are accurate and nasty. He likes to slip & rip in the pocket. He throws a lot of superman punches and flying knees. Gooden likes to taunt opponents, get them emotional & then catch them when they make mistakes. Gooden’s defense is not the greatest. He can be hit with shots & has his hands down at times. He doesn’t really have the best footwork and his chin isn’t the greatest either. He took a brutal knockout loss at the hands of Bruno Oliveira & I’ve seen him rocked multiple times. Gooden has a tendency to stand flat against the cage & look to use a high guard, head movement & slip & rip. That is a dangerous game & he gets clipped with big uppercuts & punches in a lot of fights. He has only been finished once by strikes. Gooden has six career knockouts.
Jared Gooden is a pretty good grappler. He is more of a striker, but he will mix it up. He catches kicks well and looks for takedowns against the cage. On top, he has good ground & pound & control. He has a good rear naked choke when he can take the back. He can be taken down & lost a match to Graves due to that. His get-ups aren’t bad though. Gooden actually gave a good account of himself in the grappling vs Graves. Graves is a high-level wrestler, and Gooden was able to defend his share of takedowns, and even dig double unders and control the wrestler against the cage. As the fight went on Gooden did get tired and ended up on his back more and more. Gooden has finished 12 of his 17 wins & should be ready for the moment. Gooden is only 4-3 in decisions.
Jouban is making his return after over a year and a half off and he is now 38 years old welcoming a solid prospect in Gooden to the UFC. Gooden is a solid striker with big power and good wrestling as well. He does have big issues being put on his back or against the cage and staying there for too long, but Jouban isn’t much of a wrestler and he is more of a striker himself as well. I do think Jouban can have success on the mat if that is in his game plan here, but so could Gooden if he gets in top control and I don’t think Jouban’s chin can hold up over the course of 15-minutes of striking with Gooden. Give me the underdog to land something heavy and put Jouban to sleep.
I like both sides of this fight for DraftKings, but Gooden is my preferred play of the two. He is an underdog with 100+ point potential here and that will break the slate if he gets it. I want to be overweight to Gooden for that reason and I am picking him to get an early KO as well. I think if Jouban wins this fight then he probably scores decent as well, so I don’t hate him as a play either. I want this fight in more than half of my DK lineups but if I was just making 1 LU, I could see Gooden making that roster.
Winner – Jared Gooden via 2nd round (T)KO
Daniel Rodriguez $9,100 vs Nicolas Dalby $7,100
Daniel Rodriguez
Age: 33
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: Tapout LA
From: California
UFC Record: 3-0
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W9
Betting Odds: -335
Daniel Rodriguez enters as the heavy favorite as he tries to continue a great 2020. Rodriguez is already 3-0 in 2020, all in the UFC, and has made a name for himself. If he can defeat Nicolas Dalby, he probably will get a top fifteen opponent. Rodriguez is coming back pretty quick after his last fight with Dwight Grant. That was an amazing scrap, as Rodriguez was on the brink of going out cold but came back & slept Dwight Grant shortly after. I know Rodriguez won that fight, but he is coming back pretty quick after being almost knocked out. Rodriguez is a rough and rugged guy who is going to be ready for the moment. Rodriguez is a technical striker. He also has an excellent lead hand. He will switch stances and likes to use a right jab or check right hook. Rodriguez will keep the volume high & mostly works the basics. He will throw a lot of jabs to the body and head, low kicks and gets ahead on points. His right hook has big power, and he can shut opponent’s lights out with both hands. Rodriguez will attack the body with punches as well. Rodriguez has a nice jab, overhand left combination. His overhand left is his knockout shot & he will wing it with full power. He will throw a jab, duck under & come over the top with big left hooks. Rodriguez will overextend & leave himself susceptible to counters. Rodriguez is a pressure fighter who cuts the cage off and is just a bruiser. He looks very durable but takes a lot of punishment. He ate a lot of big shots vs Gabriel Green. In his fight with Dwight Grant, he got hurt really badly, but recovered and finished Grant. Rodriguez has never been finished by strikes. He is willing to take shots to give shots & will turn up if he feels it’s close or he needs a finish. Rodriguez does hold his hands low and is susceptible to body shots. He got hurt with a body shot vs Rico Farrington. Rodriguez has seven career KO/TKO’s.
Daniel Rodriguez is a Tenth Planet trained grappler, but there is limited footage of him grappling online. Rodriguez is a thick, strong fighter for the division, and looks strong in the clinch. He has a nasty knee knockout in the clinch in his career. He did hit a body lock & double takedown vs Farrington. He seemed to time takedowns in the last 10 seconds of rounds to seal them. In previous fights, I’ve seen him defend takedowns, take top position & do work. He will move to mount & work strikes to finish the fight. In his contender series fight, he got a takedown late in round three, took mount & almost got the late finish. Rodriguez will hunt arm triangles from mount. When fighters give their backs, he will jump on rear naked chokes. Rodriguez has three career submissions & has never been submitted. He has strong cardio & is a dog.
Nicolas Dalby
Age: 36
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 74.5”
Gym: Rumble Sports
From: Denmark
UFC Record: 2-3
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +275
Nicolas Dalby needs a win here as he suffered a bad loss his last time out. Dalby was a big favorite facing a returning UFC fighter & 155er in Jesse Ronson but was finished in the very first round. Dalby won his return fight to the UFC over Alex Oliveira, but that was a controversial win as well. For Nicolas Dalby being so experienced this will be his debut in the United States. Dalby has a lot of things going against him in this fight. It’s his first fight in the United States, he has a lot of pressure to win to keep his job and is 36 years old at this point. Dalby has also historically struggled vs southpaws, having a record of 2-4-1 against them. Dalby’s striking game is all predicated on feints. He is southpaw, light on his feet, has a wide stance so he can glide in & out, and is constantly faking & feinting. When Dalby sees an opening, he will blitz in with a lead hook, straight-left combination. Dalby is aggressive at times & fights in bursts. He will blitz in with long straight or hook combinations and follow it up with high kicks. He will throw wild overhand rights to high kick combos as well. Sometimes Dalby can open up & get sloppy while closing the distance. He did that in his last fight & was caught flush with a straight down the pipe that almost knocked him out. He got dropped hard & submitted. Dalby will attack the body with a front kick. He throws a nice, low calf kick. He will throw some nice, lead leg sidekicks, and question mark kicks. Dalby has six knockouts in his career. His chin is questionable as he has been dropped in a lot of fights.
Nicolas Dalby has improved his wrestling a lot throughout his career. He is much harder to take down than he was his first UFC stint. Dalby proved that in his fight with Cowboy Oliveira. He was able to scramble with Cowboy, hit takedowns & reversals of his own. Dalby has a good motor and will dog out fighters in wrestling scrambles. He has a good switch he will hit. Dalby will grind fighters in the clinch against the cage as well. Dalby did struggle defending the takedowns in the clinch against Oliveira. He got bailed out by the referee in the third as well, being stood up out of side control bottom. Oliveira was able to take him down again with a double against the cage but showed terrible fight IQ going for the back sloppily and getting reversed. Dalby took advantage of that, took the mount, landed some big shots and stole the fight. Dalby only has four career submissions. He was submitted for the first time in his career his last fight, but that was after getting dropped hard. That was the first time Nicolas Dalby has been finished in his career. Dalby is a dog in there with great cardio.
It’s hard to disagree with these odds and the edge should go to Rodriguez anywhere this fight goes. He has solid boxing, and he strikes at a high pace that Dalby might not be able to handle. He has power in his hands and he also has a sneaky BJJ game as well. Dalby probably needs a KO or a submission to get his hand raised here because it will be very hard for him to win a decision, but I think Rodriguez is more likely to win by any of those methods and he is the pick.
Rodriguez is my preferred play here and I could end up fading Dalby. 10 or less lineups then Dalby will be a fade for me but if I get to 20 then maybe he makes 1. He could get a KO here, but I think that is the only way he scores highly, and I think winning a decision will be tough to do. Rodriguez could get a finish on the feet or the mat and he strikes at a high pace scoring over 100 DK points in all 3 of his UFC fights so I will probably look to go overweight to him and maybe even a core play for me.
Winner – Daniel Rodriguez via Unanimous Decision
Antonina Shevchenko $8,400 vs Ariane Lipski $7,800
Antonina Shevchenko
Age: 36
Height: 5’8
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: UFC PI
From: Kyrgyzstan
UFC Record: 2-2
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -160
The Antonina experiment hasn’t quite panned out as planned. Shevchenko obviously entered the UFC with a lot of fanfare due to her sister but is only 2-2 in her first four UFC fights. Shevchenko got absolutely thrashed in her last fight by Katlyn Chookagian and exposed on the ground. At 36 years old I don’t think Antonina Shevchenko is going to be improving much. Fighters need to see the holes in her game & exploit them. Shevchenko is a striker & Muay Thai World Champion. She has fast hands, a good jab and right hand. She has nice leg kicks and hard front kicks to the body. She has a good lead and counter left hook. She has heavy head kicks, and good body kicks. She will keep heavy volume on opponents and stays at her range. In her last match, she struggled with forward pressure & Modafferi was able to land some decent shots that got Shevchenko’s attention. She got backed to the cage & didn’t angle or circle off well. Shevchenko doesn’t look to have big power & opponents can walk through her shots. She has two career KO/TKO’s. She has never been finished by strikes, but I feel her chin is questionable.
Shevchenko is nasty in the clinch and her grappling looks impressive. She is very strong and when she gets a hold of the Muay Thai plum she will land heavy knees to the body and head, and also nasty elbows. She has great elbows in close range and cuts fighters’ faces up. She has ok takedown defense. In her last fight she got dominated on the ground & almost submitted. She has shown vs Roxanne Modafferi and Katlyn Chookagian she is super green on the ground, but there is no quit in her. On the feet, she has nice elbows on the ground, and she has great cardio and will continue to land knees and or ground & pound until she finishes the fight. Off her back, I saw her get beat up a bit & mounted by a fighter on the regional scene in 2017, she got dominated by Modafferi and Chookagian on the ground. She couldn’t stand up & gave up dominant positions. In this fight, she’s facing more of a striker, but you have to imagine she will try to exploit that weakness of Shevchenko. Shevchenko has no submissions & has never been submitted.
Ariane Lipski
Age: 26
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 2-2
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +140
Ariane Lipski entered the UFC with a lot of hype herself. She is also 2-2 in her first four fights but has been on the winning end of the last two. After taking on two top fifteen opponents Lipski got a step down in competition for her last two and has looked good. She is coming off a nasty first round knee bar finish over Luana Carolina. Lipski is 26 and the fighter who should be improving more fight to fight. Lipski will have a difficult puzzle though with the southpaw striker Shevchenko. Lipski is 0-1 in her career vs southpaws. Lipski is very aggressive & comes out bombing. She has dropped her last two opponents in round one. Lipski will throw heavy one-twos down the pipe & early on she definitely can crack. Lipski has finished seven of her wins in the first round.
Ariane Lipski has been able to show off her grappling in her last two fights. If she is smart she should know that is the path to victory in this fight. Ariane Lipski still has very questionable takedown defense. Whenever someone shoots in on Lipski they seem to be able to take her down. People speak about how bad Antonina Shevchenko’s takedown defense is, but she has better takedown defense than the 37% of Lipski. Lipski was taken down multiple times with ease against Joanne Calderwood, Molly McCann, and she was even out grappled by Isabela De Padua. De Padua was able to takedown Lipski in the first round of their fight & controlled on top for about two minutes. Lipski ended the round on her back. She did stuff De Padua’s attempt in the second, got on top & had some top control of her own. She was threatened with a submission near the end of the round. Lipski was taken down early in the third round as well. She did attack with a knee bar, and eventually reversed, got top position & rode out the fight on top. Lipski was able to hit that same knee bar in her subsequent fight with Luana Carolina. I see some people saying they think Lipski will look to grapple in this fight & maybe she will, but she only has one takedown in the UFC. That takedown was against Joanne Calderwood, where she caught a kick and dumped her, but didn’t really keep top control. She does have a 100% takedown rate as that’s the only takedown she’s ever attempted in the UFC. She was able to take advantage of a slip very early on vs Carolina & got on top. When Lipski can get on top, she does look to have good top control. She was able to pass the guard of Carolina & when Carolina went for the calf slicer, she hit a brutal knee bar. It was Lipski’s first UFC submission & finish victory. Lipski had three submissions in her thirteen wins. Her cardio is very good & she does go for it in round three if she feels she needs to for the win.
This could be a fun, technical striking match. We should get 15-minutes of fight time here and on the feet, it should be close, but the edge should go to Shevchenko. Lipski should have the edge on the ground though and there is no reason not to take it there because Shevchenko doesn’t have much to offer off her back. Personally, I can never back this Shevchenko sister at favorite odds again, so this is dog or pass for me and Lipski will be the pick in a close, split-decision type fight.
This is Lipski or pass for me. I am not paying $8.6k for Shevchenko because I don’t think she dominates any of this fight and she has a +550 ITD line. Full fade on Antonina for me but I will get a small amount of exposure to Lipski here. I would guess the majority of strikes here are at range which should all count as significant and this could be a higher paced striking fight. I think she could get some takedowns or even a submission as well. As the underdog, she has the better ITD line at +390 and I am not against her in cash games because I would expect 30+ in a loss.
Winner – Ariane Lipski via Split Decision
Joaquin Buckley $8,900 vs Jordan Wright $7,300
Joaquin Buckley
Age: 26
Height: 5’10
Weight: 185
Reach: 76”
Gym: Valkyrie Fitness
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 1-1
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -240
Joaquin Buckley had arguably the greatest KO in UFC history his last time out. Him and the UFC are trying to capitalize off that hype jumping back in the cage just one month later. Buckley is getting an explosive dance partner as well with Jordan Wright. Buckley is a forward pressure striker with power. Buckley likes to use overhands or wide hooks to get in & then lets his hands go inside. Buckley will go to the body with hook combinations & then back up to the head. Buckley will use head movement to try to slip shots and leap in with multi-punch combos. Buckley throws some nice kicks also; A lot of front kicks up the middle with some heavy round kicks mixed in. Buckley will mix in lead leg sidekicks to the body, flying knees and spinning kicks. Buckley doesn’t use a lot of fakes or feints when he enters range & is pretty flat footed. He is explosive & closes distance quickly but is hittable and slows down. Kevin Holland stabbed Buckley with front kicks to the body, and straight punches down the pipe. He dropped Buckley hard with a straight in the first, before knocking him out in the third. That was the second time that Buckley has gotten knocked out with one punch, and he’s coming back quickly as well. I have to question his chin a little bit. With 8 knockouts Buckley is definitely dangerous himself.
Joaquin Buckley isn’t the best grappler. Vinicius De Jesus was able to take down Buckley pretty easily with double legs in the center of the octagon. Buckley will overextend on his punches and give up his hips. Buckley is strong and against the cage is much harder to takedown. Buckley is also pretty hard to hold down. Buckley did lose a decision to elite wrestler Logan Storley where he was out grappled recently as well. Buckley will hit takedowns of his own. He has good timing on his shots and will drive through & land big takedowns. On top, he isn’t all that threatening. He uses takedowns more to just change up the rhythm of the fight & get points. Buckley has no submissions in his career. Buckley has a questionable gas tank. He slows down in the third round of fights. All his finishes but one has come in the first two rounds. Buckley has a 3-1 record in fights that hit the score cards.
Jordan Wright
Age: 29
Height: 6’2
Weight: 185
Reach: 77”
Gym: Dynamix MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 1-0
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-01
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +200
Jordan Wright was successful in his UFC debut. He dropped his opponent with a spinning back kick to the face less than 20 seconds into the fight. Wright followed that up with some big elbows against the cage cutting open Ike Villanueva & forcing an end to the fight. Wright is going to drop back down to 185 lbs for this fight where he has a big size advantage over most guys. He will be four inches taller than Buckley & just has a bigger frame. Buckley is a person who has fought at 170 lbs before and can probably make it again whereas Wright fought most recently at 205. He has a hands low in & out style. He’s light on his feet and walks fighters into shots well. He likes to circle opponents into heavy round kicks to the body. He has nice straights & overhands he will walk guys into also. Wright will start by attacking the body with the round kick & then change it up to the head to get KOs. He has finished fights with spinning attacks. In his fight with Gabriel Checco, he hurt Checco badly in round one with an overhand right, and then sat him down with a knee in the second. Wright in his fight with Anthony Hernandez didn’t get started. He threw one spinning wheel kick to the head, a couple jabs, but when he got backed up he showed terrible defense. When Hernandez closed the distance & traded with him in the pocket, Wright looked super uncomfortable. He just shelled up didn’t move his feet and got knocked out quickly. The way he circles, fighters who can cut the cage off & force him towards the cage will have success. He has yet to prove he can take a punch or survive a pocket exchange. Wright is going to have a huge speed advantage here & needs to stay on his bike and on the outside. Wright has 6 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Jordan Wright is not much of a grappler. He is a physically strong opponent & when low level guys try to take him down he can reverse. He has a few back takes & rear naked chokes. He isn’t a fighter who looks for takedowns though. Wright showed off good defensive wresting/Jiu-Jitsu in his last fight against black belt Gabriel Checco. He was able to stay safe on top when Checco pulled guard in round one, and never allowed Checco on top. He dropped Checco with a knee in the second & finished him off with ground & pound. Wright has finishes five of his wins by submission most by rear naked choke. Most of the people he’s submitted have zero wins. Wright’s cardio is a question mark as he’s never made it out of the first minute of round two.
Buckley is coming off his Knockout of the Year performance with a lot more hype behind him now. Both guys are mainly strikers, but Wright’s kicks are the best part of his game and with Buckley being the shorter guy he shouldn’t be looking to strike at range here. Buckley has the better hands and wrestling here, and we saw him get a crazy kick KO as well. Usually I look to fade these big favorites with a lot of KO hype, but I don’t think this is the spot to do it because it isn’t a KO or bust fight for the favorite.
Buckley is going to be my preferred play here because I think he would be the higher volume guy, the more likely guy to go for takedowns, and more likely to get the knockout. I won’t be X’ing Wright out of my lineups, and he could get a KO and break the slate at low ownership, but I might end up full fading him if I make 10 or less lineups. If I get up to 20 lineups, then I will have to start throwing him into lineups. Buckley is a guy that I could see me being overweight on because I wouldn’t hate paying $700 less for him than Valentina to move up to an underdog I like more. He might also go a bit overlooked because there are 4 other favorites priced above him that I would guess are higher owned than him, and you can’t fit them all in your lineups so maybe he is the odd man out.
Winner – Joaquin Buckley via 1st round (T)KO
Brandon Moreno $8,600 vs Brandon Royval $7,600
Brandon Moreno
Age: 26
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 70”
Gym: Entram Gym
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 5-2-1
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -175
Arguably the best Mexican fighter in the UFC, Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno will be back in action this Saturday. Moreno has been on fire recently not having lost in over two years. Moreno is undefeated in his second run in the UFC & has taken out 3 guys that are in the top ten. He wanted his opportunity at the belt, so I’m sure he is a little pissed off and ready to make a statement that he’s up next. Moreno’s striking has really leveled up. Moreno has tighter defense & is improving with his boxing. He will throw a jab to the body & head. He has a very nice left hook. He will throw a left hook, straight hand combination. He will throw a left hook to the body and then to the head combination as well. Moreno has a very dangerous overhand right & right uppercut. He has big power & will hurt opponents with one shot. He throws a lot of long, looping shots that he can land from long range, but tightens up the hooks & uppercuts in the pocket. He will attack the left hook to the body a lot & then change it up to an uppercut that fighters don’t see coming. Moreno is still a leaner & overextends on his punches. He can get caught with counter shots inside especially against sharp strikers. He has really struggled with sharp, straight shots, especially the jab. Moreno doesn’t throw nearly as many kicks as he used to, but still has a dangerous head kick. He has dropped two opponents with head kicks in the UFC including his last opponent. He will mix the head kick into combinations & times it well. Moreno is getting the chance to defeat a style he hasn’t had success with in the past. Moreno is a bit sporadic with his output. He can circle & be very low volume, and then just explode. Against more technical guys that style doesn’t always work. Moreno is durable and has never been finished by strikes. Moreno has two KO/TKO’s but is dangerous on the feet.
Brandon Moreno is an elite grappler. His scrambling ability is top notch, and he has proved that in his last two fights. His ability to create scrambles off his back that he’s able to take advantage of is incredible. Moreno has gotten better at his timing on his double legs. He will get in on the legs, circle to the back, and look for throws or trips. Moreno has good top control & ground & pound. He has nice guard passing skills & back takes. He will get the body triangle & is very good at sliding the arm under the neck. Moreno has strong takedown defense & dangerous attacks to counter the attempts. He will use front knees, head kicks, & uppercuts to try to discourage level changes & hurt opponents shooting in. If opponents do take Moreno down, he is immediately attacking with triangles, armbars & sweeps. He is extremely hard to hold down & catches opponents in the scrambles. Moreno has been competing in combat Jiu-Jitsu & obviously that’s the strongest facet of his game. His rear naked choke is his most dangerous submission. He has 10 career submissions. Moreno was submitted by Alexandre Pantoja on TUF. Moreno has excellent cardio & is live & looking for the finish at all times.
Brandon Royval
Age: 28
Height: 5’9
Weight: 125
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: FactoryX Muay Thai
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 2-0
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +155
So far so good for Brandon Royval. Two UFC fights, two wins, two performance of the night bonuses. Not too bad. Royval has done that against pretty high-level competition as well in Tim Elliott & Kai Kara-France. Royval has been able to submit both after back & forth scraps. Finishes are Royval’s thing. He has eleven in his twelve wins. In this fight against Moreno though, neither fighter has ever been finished. Royval has defied the odds winning as an underdog in back to back fights, if he can do it again here he might be in line for a title shot in just his fourth UFC fight. Royval is very high volume. He is fast & long for the division, having nice kicks and straights. Royval will throw heavy low kicks, early and often. Royval likes to throw straights followed by low body or head kicks. He has a nice jab, will throw some one-twos, and nice, straight punch drive-bys. Royval has a nice, short lead hook also. He also likes to throw some nice spinning elbows. He will mix knees into his combinations, & overall is a creative striker. He got hurt and then threw a nasty spinning attack in his last fight. The issue with Royval on the feet is his defense. He drops his hands & has his chin readily available to be hit after throwing strikes. He is there to be countered & eventually he will be knocked out if that isn’t fixed up. Royval is very tough & when he gets hit will come forward and try to get it back. He likes to drown opponents with volume & forward pressure forcing them to shoot takedowns. Royval will probably have the striking advantage here, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he got tagged with some good ones himself. Royval has never been finished by strikes & at FLW you can get away with more mistakes. Royval does have three KO/TKO victories.
Brandon Royval is a dangerous submission grappler. He is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and is not afraid to attack submissions. Royval really doesn’t have the wrestling though. He doesn’t shoot takedowns and has poor takedown defense. The way he gets top position is from forcing bad shots out of opponents from pressure on the feet or sweeping his opponent. Royval’s takedown defense is improving, but it still isn’t very good. He can get taken down in the clinch with wrestling shots and will most likely get taken down by Moreno. When he fought UFC fighter Casey Kenney, Royval was taken down at will. Royval is very tricky off his back. He has a good guard, and very quick armbar and triangle transitions. He will attack oma & gogoplatas, and transitions from submission to submission very quickly. Royval can get his guard passed due to being so aggressive, and Kenney was able to ride him out fairly easily. Royval still will attack the legs, look for submissions in scrambles, and to reguard. Royval has sick cardio and will never stop working on bottom or on top. Most of Royval’s wins have come by submission in bottom position. He has seven career subs. He landed another submission after rocking his last opponent. Royval has two very quick armbar finishes which are his specialty. If Royval wins this fight, I think it will likely be by submission or TKO.
This should be a fun fight. Both guys are well-rounded, and this should be a higher-paced fight with a good mixture of striking and grappling. Moreno should have the edge in the striking game and the ground is much closer to even. Hopefully we do see a good bit of grappling here because it should be fun to watch with these two and there could be a lot of scrambles where both guys have success. Moreno looked like he has really improved over the last couple years though and he is going to be my pick to win on the scorecards.
This could end up being a great fight if there is a ton of grappling. Either side could score well if the majority of this fight is on the mat and they both are live for a submission win. I don’t really see a KO happening here, but they could strike at a high pace and score well in a decision as well. I do think this fight gets a good amount of ownership though and I could also see a back and forth fight on the feet where the winner scores 75 or less. That makes me unsure of what I will do here but I won’t be starting any lineups with either side of this fight. FGTD is -125 and I do think we see this go all 15-minutes as well, so right now I am leaning going underweight to both sides of this fight but I would guess both make at least 1-2 lineups if I am making 20 total lineups this week. Both sides are fine cash game plays as well if you have a preferred side you like there.
Winner – Brandon Moreno via Unanimous Decision
Paul Craig $8,500 vs Mauricio Rua $7,700
Paul Craig
Age: 32
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Scottish Hit Squad
From: Scotland
UFC Record: 5-4-1
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -170
The legend Paul Craig is back to grace the octagon with another performance. He will be facing the only fighter who he has went to decision with him in the UFC, Shogun Rua. That fight ended in a draw, so it only makes sense to run it back. Craig is coming in with some momentum after yet another first round submission over Gadzhimurad Antigulov in his last fight. Craig has won his last nine fights by submissions. Craig has improved his striking a lot, but it’s still not very good. He does have the range in this fight. He will throw the jab, one-two. He likes to throw counter hooks as he leans back. In his fight with Shogun, he landed long combinations when he backed Shogun against the cage. Craig throws a lot of kicks; Inside, outside low kicks, round & front kicks to the body as well as high kicks. He throws a lot of spinning kicks, almost too many. Craig is confident & willing to throw. His chin is right in the air though, and he throws a lot of naked kicks. Craig has been knocked out three times in his career. He only has one career TKO.
Paul Craig is an opportunistic submission guy. He is mostly a guard player. He does have some decent level changes & double legs. Craig’s clinch game isn’t the best. He is hittable in the clinch & easily taken down. He does have some decent hip throws, and dangerous knees. Craig gets taken down a lot off his naked kicks. On his back, he is very comfortable. He does have a threatening guard and hit some triangles in the UFC. When Craig can’t find the submission, he is too comfortable on his back & won’t stand up. He got a draw his fight with Shogun Rua because of this. He shot a horrible double leg in round three & ended on bottom. Craig also allows himself to get backed up & controlled against the cage too easily. Craig has won his last nine fights by submission.
Shogun Rua
Age: 38
Height: 6’1
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Bola De Nueva Maringá
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 11-9-1
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +150
Shogun Rua is still hanging around and picked up yet another win in his last match. Shogun took a really close decision victory over his longtime rival Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. He’s going to look to make it two wins in a row for the first time since 2017. Rua has actually only lost one time in the last six years, but he’s only fought three times in the last three years. Shogun is still a dangerous Muay Thai striker who must be respected, 21 of his 26 wins are by knockout. He is always looking to take someone’s head off. Shogun likes to use leg kicks to find his range, and he will also use them at the end of punching combinations. Rua throws wild, leaping hooks that are extremely dangerous and can put fighters out. He has gotten better at countering with a left hook, and he has a nice straight-right hand. He does a great job of catching kicks and returning with overhands, and he can drop opponents with that punch. Rua likes to throw a right hook, low kick combination, and sometimes he will fake the right hand and throw a left hook. He also will throw a nasty lead uppercut, but that is a risky shot that puts him at risk of being countered. His punches looked much slower, and his movement was more labored against Smith and his constant knee problems and overall health issues may be catching up to him. He has 21 KO/TKO’s in his career and has been finished by strikes 5 times.
Shogun has used wrestling more in recent fights, and he isn’t a bad wrestler. He has good body lock takedowns and will shoot double legs as well. He uses timing more than explosion on his shots, and they need to be well timed or he will not get them usually. Shogun actually has pretty solid takedown defense overall and does a good job of getting his back to the fence where he’s good at defending takedowns. He can get over aggressive and get timed on double legs and taken down. Rua isn’t a submission threat with just one in his career and has been submitted 3 times himself. His gas tank is good, and he has been responsible for some of the biggest comebacks in UFC history.
This is a rematch from one year ago when these two fought to a split decision draw. In that fight, I thought it would be a striker vs grappler matchup with Rua needing to keep the fight standing to win. However, Craig was winning on the feet and it was top control time from Rua that ended up saving him as a 2-1 favorite. Now the line is flipped and it’s hard to disagree with. I am not looking to bet Craig at close to 2-1 over really anybody, but he is going to be the pick here.
Craig is my preferred DraftKings play and he could get a KO or submission. A lot of people dislike Craig as well and they will remember him almost losing this fight the first time, so I don’t think he will have much ownership. I do want exposure to him this week, but I will probably be underweight to this fight as a whole. I don’t have much interest in Rua, but he could get a KO, so I won’t X him out of my player pool. If I was making 1-3 lineups, then I would probably just fade both sides and hope we see another decision.
Winner – Paul Craig via 1st round Submission
Cynthia Calvillo $8,700 vs Katlyn Chookagian $7,500
Cynthia Calvillo
Age: 33
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 64”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: California
UFC Record: 6-1-1
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -270
Cynthia Calvillo is entrenched as a big favorite here in her second FLW fight. Calvillo was victorious over the number one contender in her debut in the division & looking to take out another top five opponent in this fight. Calvillo has a great record of 6-1-1 in the UFC and is the fighter in better, recent form. She is a grappler with average striking. Calvillo has alright movement and tries to work behind a jab and straight-right hand. She does a decent job of countering with her right hand and moving her head off center line. She has a nice check left hook in the pocket. She will throw occasional leg kicks, but she is not much of a kicker. She tends to get flat footed when she tries to throw combinations and will stand right in front of opponents and get hit. She was able to take the shots of a powerful girl in her last match & has fought multiple fighters who are now at 125. She is a tough girl and has a good chin. She has two TKO’s in her career, and never has been finished.
Calvillo is a great BJJ practitioner, and very dangerous on the ground. She is amazing in scrambles, and her flexibility makes her able to end up in dominant positions. She isn’t a great wrestler, or even a very active seeker of the takedown, but she definitely will need to be in this matchup. She did have a nice duck under off an Esparza overhand and was able to get a nice double leg takedown. She will try to get the single collar tie and then shoot takedowns from there, but overall, she isn’t a great wrestler. On top, she is strong, but if opponents just try to stay safe she seems to not be extremely active. She likes to use small ground and pound, and make opponents make a move where she can scramble to dominant position. Her takedown defense is not great, but off her back is where she is most dangerous. She has very dexterous legs, and she’s able to use them to offset balance and create scrambles where she can take the back, or lock in a choke. She has great back takes, showing that with a slick submission over Amanda Cooper. She also has nice triangles and armbars and works quickly on the mat for the submission. She was able to easily dominate Jessica Eye on the ground & hit several takedowns. She has two rear naked chokes in her career. She has good cardio and can go hard for three rounds.
Katlyn Chookagian
Age: 31
Height: 5’9
Weight: 125
Reach: 66”
Gym: Nick Catone’s MMA
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 7-4
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +230
Katlyn Chookagian is looking to get right back on the horse, and back in the win column. She has lost two of her last three fights, but those were to two current or former UFC champions. She will be getting a step down in competition, but still a tough competitor in Cynthia Calvillo. Chookagian is a good striker with a point fighting style. She has a nice jab, and she will double and triple up on it. She will follow the jab up with a straight-right hand, leg kick combination, and has very fluid kicks with her lead leg. She has nice a nice front kick, and sidekicks to the body, along with a fast, high kick. She will throw question mark kicks and hook kicks as well with her lead leg. She has good overhand lefts and rights in close range and will sit down and throw with power. She has a nice left hook, straight-right hand to the body. She will throw hooks to the body also and has nice rear uppercuts. She is good at catching kicks and returning with shots, and she is good defensively. She has good footwork and lateral movement and keeps a high volume of shots out there. Her left knee and high kick are her most dangerous attacks, she dropped Liz Carmouche with a head kick. In this fight, she is going to have the faster feet & an opponent who doesn’t have great head movement. If she can find her range early, it could be a hard night for Calvillo in terms of getting past the reach of Katlyn. She has two knockouts in her career. She got finished with a body shot in her last fight & with ground & pound against Shevchenko.
Katlyn Chookagian is a Renzo Gracie brown belt, and well versed on the mat. She has good duck unders for double legs and is strong in the clinch with knees. She is good at landing hard knees to the body and disengaging when fighters try to clinch with her, and she has good takedown defense. In her last two fights I feel she has really leveled up her grappling. She absolutely trounced Antonina Shevchenko on the ground and dominated the clinch. She was able to win the clinch against Jessica Andrade too who is one of the strongest girls in the UFC. When she does get taken down, she will attack with triangles, armbars and has a decent get-up game. She does have two submissions in her career with one being an armbar. Her armbars look very fast & she sets them up well. On top, she has good control, and will win rounds through top position. In this fight I do see Chookagian looking to get it to the mat if it’s close on the feet. Pushing Calvillo against the cage & controlling her. I think this fight really is going to come down to distance control though. If Chookagian can use her superior footwork to land her jabs, straight punches & kicks and keep Cynthia on the outside she will likely win the fight.
This is going to be a striker verse grappler fight. Both fighters are well-rounded but Chookagian gets the edge on the feet and Calvillo gets the edge on the ground. If Calvillo wins this fight she will be knocking on the door for a title shot so I do expect her to look for takedowns early and often, and if she can get the fight to the mat she should be able to win rounds that way if not even lock up a submission. Chookagian doesn’t have KO power so it’s hard to see her keeping this fight on the feet long enough to win a decision so this is even a favorite or pass fight for me on the betting line.
This is going to be Calvillo or pass for me. I like Calvillo because she will be the one looking to grapple, and she could rack up takedowns and advances if she is successful. She should add in some sig strikes on the feet as well and I like her to win. I don’t love her ITD line of +347 though and Chookagian has the style to kill DraftKings points. I won’t be too heavy on Calvillo for those reasons, but she will still make my player pool. Chookagian will be a full fade for me because I don’t see her getting a finish and if she wins a decision, I doubt she would even score 10x her cheap price tag.
Winner – Cynthia Calvillo via Unanimous Decision
Mike Perry $8,200 vs Tim Means $8,000
Mike Perry
Age: 29
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 71”
Gym: SG American Top Team
From: Florida
UFC Record: 7-6
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -160
Mike Perry got back in the win column in his last fight. Even if it wasn’t the prettiest performance, he snapped his two-fight winning streak and is looking to regain momentum. Perry was expected to fight a huge name on this card in Robbie Lawler. That is a fight he has been calling for, for years. Unfortunately, Lawler suffered an injury and has been replaced with the “Dirty Bird”, Tim Means. Perry is a bruiser wants to walk opponents down and put his hands on them. He has one shot knockout power & has some brutal UFC knockouts. He has a decent jab & nice one-two. His right hand has big knockout power, especially his overhand & hook. He will throw a straight-right hand to a left hook combination. He will mix in lead elbows & uppercuts in close range. He will attack the body with jabs & straight-rights. He will throw oblique kicks to the legs & lead leg, hook kicks. He can get very static & just stand in one spot without throwing much leaving him open to be hit. He is heavy on his lead leg & very hittable. He has been dropped in multiple UFC fights & his chin has taken a beating. He has always had a speed issue & struggled with fighters who use footwork & movement. He is willing to eat shots to give his own and won’t ever quit. Even if he’s dropped he will get back up & continue to move forward. Perry has 11 KO/TKO’s in 14 wins. He finally got his chin cracked for the first time in his career in his last loss getting KO’d by Geoff Neal.
Mike Perry is an underrated grappler. He is pretty explosive closing the distance into the clinch. He disguised his entries with punches & is strong in the clinch. He has good cage control & will attack with nasty knees & elbows. He has multiple finishes in the clinch in the UFC. When he is in close range like that, he doesn’t have to find opponents & it only takes one. He has decent body locks & double legs. He is very strong in the clinch and will get in on a single, elevate & slam opponents. He has good ground & pound, decent top control & floating ability. He will look to take the back. Perry is very strong in the clinch. I could see Perry landing a potential fight finishing shot off a break or in the clinch in this fight. He was able to takedown and dominate Mickey Gall in his last fight. He has good takedown defense, and I haven’t seen much off his back. He was submitted by Donald Cerrone and showed some greenness on the ground. That was the first time he was finished in his career. Perry has never gotten a submission.
Tim Means
Age: 36
Height: 6’2
Weight: 170
Reach: 75”
Gym: Fit NHB
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 14-9
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +140
Tim Means picked up his fourteenth UFC win against Laureano Staropoli. After his upset loss at the hands of Daniel Rodriguez, he needed a big performance & he got it. Means looked pretty good & dominated the young prospect. Means is a very sharp striker. He has a long reach but is also nasty in close range. Means has nice one-twos and front kicks to the body. He will throw one-twos & right straights to the body as well. He throws hard low & oblique kicks to the legs. Means has a very accurate lead & counter left hook. He has a sharp counter right hook as well. He throws straight-right, left uppercut combinations. He has a nice step-in knee. He has good head movement and slips & rips very effectively. He will throw uppercut, overhand left combinations. He has nice high kicks. He keeps a high volume of punches out there, doubling and tripling up on jabs. Means does a good job of changing the speed of his punches and peppering fighters and mixing in faster, more powerful punches. He wears fighters out with pressure. Means does like to stick in the pocket & fight in a danger zone. He is very comfortable slipping & ripping & using elbows, knees & short-range shots and winning the inside game. In his last match that cost him as he got caught & knocked out in a fight he was dominating. He has only been finished twice by strikes and has notoriously had a great chin. Means has 19 KO/TKO’s.
Tim Means is nasty in the dirty boxing range, he has slicing elbows, short hooks and uppercuts. He throws nice knees to the body. He does a great job of using underhooks to defend takedowns & put fighters on their backs. He will also attack with guillotines. He did that against Belal Muhammad & almost rolled into mount but was stopped by the cage. He has good double leg & body lock takedowns. On top, he does a great job of posturing up & throwing hard elbows & punches. He was able to take down Ricky Rainey early & landed some brutal G&P for the finish. He tends to shoot takedowns when he gets hurt & can be submitted that way. He has good arm triangles but doesn’t look for submissions very much. In this fight, I do think mixing it up could be a smart game plan. Means has 4 career submissions. He has been submitted 4 times.
This is a banger. Both guys come to scrap, and we could have a FOTN in this one. I favor Perry to get the KO and I favor Means to get the sub. However, if this fight stays standing, and we don’t get a finish, I think it’s 50/50, if not a slight lean to Means because of his experience and 4-inch height and reach advantage. I think Means does have a real edge on the mat here as well, so I think this line should be flipped. People love knockouts and Perry throws heat, so I think that is why he is favored here and if he doesn’t get the KO then I don’t love his chances here.
I like both sides of this fight, but my preferred side is Means. If Perry wins, I think it will most likely be a knockout and that should score highly no matter what round it comes in. If he wins a decision, then he probably gets around 10x so I would like him less if you think that will be the case. I think any win from Means should score over 10x for him though and he could look for takedowns and lock up a submission early to score 100+. He has a high striking pace as well landing almost 5 significant strikes per minute and I don’t see how this would be a boring enough fight for him to not get over 80 if he ends up winning this fight. Both guys have a low floor so this is a better GPP fight for either side, but I will be overweight on Means and underweight on Perry. Perry does have a +125 ITD line but I’d be very shocked at a submission and he hasn’t had a knockout in 3 years.
Winner – Tim Means via 2nd round Submission
Valentina Shevchenko $9,600 vs Jennifer Maia $6,600
Valentina Shevchenko
Age: 32
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 65.5”
Gym: UFC PI
From: Kyrgyzstan
UFC Record: 8-2
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -1375
Valentina Shevchenko is making her return & ready to defend her crown. Valentina is one of the best female Muay Thai strikers on the planet. She has a record of 56-2 as a pro Muay Thai competitor and has transferred that style nicely to MMA. She is a phenomenal counter striker; her lead left, check hook is a thing of beauty. She does a great job of landing a straight-right hand to a left hook combination. She uses kicks to the legs and the body, and then will catch opponents sleeping and counter them with a perfect, spinning backfist. She will throw a superman punch to a leg kick combination. She likes to throw the right hook to setup her straight-left and bing opponents with it. She likes to use a spinning back kick to move backwards. In Muay Thai, she has a lot of knockdowns with that technique. Her awareness of distance to return with a counter shot is second to none. She will slip and land hard overhands. She is always balanced and never puts herself out of position. She has strong and solid leg kicks. She exits out of danger after combinations super smoothly. She does a good job of moving her head off the center line and not getting hit cleanly much. When she gets confidence, she will start to really walk opponents down and get them to open with shots she can slip and counter. She was dropped by a fake jab, uppercut by Holly Holm. Valentina is not a one-shot striker either in terms of power, but I do feel she has more power in her strikes in this matchup. She has 5 TKO’s in her career and was finished one time by TKO by Liz Carmouche due to a cut.
Valentina is a great grappler. She has good clinch entries where she will get good head position and land hard elbows and knees. She is very strong in this position and wears opponents out. She has nice hip tosses and trips in the clinch as well and is a good wrestler. She will shoot for single legs in open space, and she has a nice snatch single. She was able to setup an easy double leg with punches against Cachoeira and displayed some vicious ground & pound. She was able to get good posture in the guard and rain down nasty elbows and punches to the body & head. She really bludgeoned Cachoeira & Katlyn Chookagian and it was hard to watch. She was able to get the crucifix position and mount, landing a huge amount of ground & pound before getting the rear naked choke. She was able to get nice body lock & hip toss takedowns against Joanna. Valentina has also submitted high level grapplers such as Juliana Pena. Shevchenko has seven submissions in her career.
Jennifer Maia
Age: 32
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 64”
Gym: Chute Boxe Monstro
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 3-2
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +900
Jennifer Maia is getting a huge opportunity at UFC gold here. Maia is a come forward striker, who has that heavy Muay Thai Chute Boxe style. She has an active jab. She will throw a one-two combination, or a jab, overhand right combination. She will throw a one-two to a left hook combination. She will mix uppercuts into close range. She is good at slipping punches & countering usually with her straight or overhand right. She will throw occasional leg & body kicks. She will attack the body with nice jabs & right hooks. She doesn’t throw a lot of variation & really her right hand is her bread & butter. She is at her best when she finds her range, goes forward & lets her right hand go. She can land her straight or overhand right over & over and it’s very accurate. When she’s able to stun fighters, she will swarm with combinations, but overall, she doesn’t throw a ton of volume. She is flat footed & doesn’t move her head much. She can get hit clean with shots. Modafferi had some success with straight punches in the first matchup. She tends to start slow & pick up as fights go on. She doesn’t have much power & only has 3 KO/TKO’s in her career. She has been knocked out only one time & is a tough girl. I do feel her chin isn’t the greatest, she was rocked by a jab by Aga Niedzwiedz in a recent Invicta fight.
Maia is a solid grappler, although she was able to defend a majority of Modafferi’s takedowns in the first match. She has good clinch control & will land hard knees to the legs & body. She digs nice double underhooks & will slow the pace of the fight by controlling fighters against the cage. She was able to do that against Liz Carmouche in round one, which is very impressive because Carmouche might be the strongest fighter in the division. She isn’t a wrestler, but she has good takedown defense. She has a strong sprawl and will use it to take top position herself. When she does get taken down, she has good get-ups. She will attack in her guard with armbars. She hit another one in her last fight. She was able to shake Roxanne Modafferi off her back a couple times & take top position. In top position, she isn’t super dangerous with ground & pound. She has 6 career submissions. She has only been submitted one time & is someone who will go to sleep rather than tap.
This Shevchenko is one of the best fighters in the world, male or female. She has a big edge anywhere this fight goes, and she can win by KO, submission, or a dominant decision. Maia probably needs something crazy to happen like a lucky KO or sub, or even an injury or DQ from Shevchenko to have a chance here and I just don’t see it. No value in the line but Shevchenko is the easy pick.
I don’t have much interest in this fight. Shevchenko doesn’t always score well in her fights and she is priced so highly that I probably can’t afford much of her. I do like her in all formats, but I have no problem paying down to move up elsewhere. She can get a KO or sub here and score well but I don’t see her getting 10x or more if this fight goes past the 3rd round. Maia is a punt option only but mainly for cash games or small field tournaments where you are ok accepting the loss and hoping she can get you 30 and that be enough to get the win. I would not stack this fight in cash games though and I would just use one or the other. I would guess I end up underweight to Valentina and full fade Maia.
Winner – Valentina Shevchenko via Unanimous Decision
Deiveson Figueiredo $9,000 vs Alex Perez $7,200
Deiveson Figueiredo
Age: 32
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Team Figueiredo
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 8-1
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -280
Deiveson Figueiredo is probably the biggest FW on the roster with the most one punch knockout power. He proved that again in his last match with Joe B. On the feet, Figueiredo is basic, but has one punch knockout power and is a big presence. He cuts the cage off well, will switch stances, and almost always controls the center of the cage. He likes to stand in front of his opponent’s feint, & touch opponents to pull counter. He uses a wide stance, hands down stance & is very athletic & explosive. Figueiredo has a very nice jab. He will skip into range with one-twos and has heavy low kicks. He has a powerful straight & overhand right. Figueiredo likes to kind of shuffle into range & then explode into a left or right hook or overhand. He will attack the body with straights & hooks that have big power. He has very nice uppercuts. The issue in Figueiredo’s striking is he loads up a lot, and if opponents are smart, use movement & don’t engage in fire fights with him, he isn’t the fastest. Due to the fact he doesn’t throw in combination, he can be low volume and not land much if fighters can avoid the big shots. He will sit in the pocket & trade wild hooks as shown vs Pantoja. He has started to implement a lot more standing elbows on the feet that are very dangerous & cut opponents open. Figueiredo will also get frustrated & start lunging in & using big movements when he can’t get inside. This makes it easier to time takedowns, along with catch him with counter shots. In his last match, he was definitely more composed, but his opponent was willing to engage with Figueiredo much more than I see Perez doing. Figueiredo definitely packs a punch with 9 KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished by strikes.
Deiveson Figueiredo has struggled with grapplers over his career. He got a victory by the skin of his teeth vs Jarred Brooks, where he was taken down many times. In his loss to Jussier Formiga, Formiga was able to take him down to cement rounds. Figueiredo just doesn’t have the greatest takedown defense or get-up game. He has really worked on that recently though & his grappling looked fantastic vs Joe B. He did get dumped with double legs vs Brooks and taken down with singles & body locks vs Formiga. Off his back, Figueiredo doesn’t do much. He will try to play the guard game, control posture, and does land elbows & punches off his back. He did cut Formiga with an elbow on bottom. He will eventually look to get the feet on the hips & push his opponent off, but he can be much too complacent off his back. In his fights with both Formiga & Brooks, they had over a full round of top control. Deiveson does have a dangerous guillotine, but he doesn’t use it to sweep, and if opponents escape, he is on his back. He did catch one against Tim Elliott. I will say though, Deiveson was able to deny a couple takedowns from Joe B. He was able to also attack with an armbar in round one that was very close in the first fight & then choked him unconscious in the second. His Jiu-Jitsu is super dangerous. Offensively Figueiredo isn’t a bad wrestler. He is very big for the division, and gets in on double underhooks nicely, using the position to land trip takedowns. He landed a nice blast double in his fight vs Pantoja. He wasn’t able to control in top position very long before Pantoja scrambled back to his feet. In this fight, I think Figueiredo has to stay composed. He has to just try to cut Perez off, not get frustrated by the movement & catch him as he’s coming in. He needs to use his straight-right hand & uppercut, and maybe even look for flying knees. If he gets taken down, work back to his feet as quickly as possible. Figueiredo has 6 submissions & has never been submitted.
Alex Perez
Age: 28
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 125
Gym: Team Oyama
From: California
UFC Record: 6-1
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +240
Alex Perez is a pressure fighter on the feet. He keeps his shoulders tight, has decent head movement, and walks fighters down. Perez will change speeds, feint, and fake to try to work his way inside. Perez is very good at coming in & swarming opponents with wide hooks. He has fast hands & power. If he can get an opponent to shell up or move backwards in a straight line, they’re toast. Perez will mix in some uppercuts and standing elbows. He isn’t a big kicker, but he will throw some low kicks. Perez is wide with his punches though, and fighters can stick & move on him. He also doesn’t check low kicks very well. Perez has good striking, but not great. He is hittable and can be a bit predictable. Perez is a durable fighter & big guy for the weight class. He can take a shot & has only been KO’d one time. He has four KO/TKO’s, all in round one. Perez goes for it in the first, finishing four of his last five fights in round one.
Alex Perez is a strong grappler. He is a former All-American wrestler & very big for the 125 lb weight class. He likes to grapple in almost all his fights, so it will be interesting what game plan he comes in with here. Perez is very physical in the clinch and does a good job of getting in on single legs and pushing fighters to the cage. He is good at working from there & getting on top. Perez is a beast on top especially at 125. He is very heavy on top, postures up well, and will rain down heavy blows. He is aggressive with his ground & pound. Perez will hang out in fighter’s guards and just beat them up. Early on his career, Perez was caught in a couple of submissions while he was in top position, so he has to be careful here. Perez also likes to get to the wrestling ride position on the back, work ground & pound and threaten back takes and or front chokes. If Perez gets to the front headlock position fighters are usually in big danger. Perez has a good guillotine & deadly anaconda choke. In Perez’s last fight, he landed a sick arm triangle that put his opponent out cold. He didn’t even have to pass half-guard showing he has a truly sick squeeze. Perez has seven career submissions. Perez hasn’t faced many fighters who have tried to take him down in his UFC career. He does have 87% takedown defense though. The only fighter who was able to take him down was Joseph Benavidez. Joe B was able to quickly work to a dominant position not once but twice and finish the fight. This fight will be a real test for Perez. Perez has been submitted four times.
This is a great fight and the 2nd title fight of the night. Figueiredo has always been good and well-rounded but he really looks to be in the prime of his career right now as the champion. Perez is really good and well-rounded too, and I think these guys are good enough to fight again no matter who wins this fight. I give the power and grappling edge in this fight to Figueiredo, but I give the volume and wrestling edge to Perez here. Figueiredo can always knock anybody out and I think the line is a bit too high here because people just saw him get back to back knockouts and they always overrate the KO chance. It could very well happen again here, but if it doesn’t, I have Perez winning this fight. I don’t see Figueiredo winning a decision here, so I feel like he needs a KO or sub and lining a guy as a 70% favorite when his best shot at winning is a finish is never something I will be backing. Give me Perez to mix in takedowns and land more volume on the feet. He could get a finish himself, but I think this one could end up going all 5-round and if that happens, I think Perez gets his hand raised.
I don’t think we have to use either title fight this weekend and not using them is a good way to be contrarian if you are not using contrarian fighters. My preferred play is going to be Perez here because there is no way Perez wins and doesn’t end up on the optimal lineup at $7.2k. At $9k for Figueiredo it is a different story. If he doesn’t get the finish in the 1st or 2nd round he might not end up on the optimal lineup if he wins. He doesn’t strike or grapple at a high enough pace to score well without a big win bonus or knockdowns which are hard to predict. This is still close to an all-in fight for me and I do like Figueiredo because he can finish on the feet or the ground, more likely with the knockout. I just could see him scoring less than 10x in a win so that will keep me underweight and since I do like Perez in this matchup, he will be a core play for me this weekend. I think the stack in cash games is fine, but you can fade this fight in cash games as well, and I am not against solo Perez either.
Winner – Alex Perez via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown & be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building & I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend & enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on Twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks & predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice & fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on Twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: BigMarleyMMA.com
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