The playoffs are heating up, and Dega will be the backdrop for one of the most exciting playoff races of the year. Look – it’s really hard to predict plate tracks. All we can do is talk strategy, and how different drivers fit into that. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
Feb 17, 2020; Daytona Beach, Florida, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (47) and NASCAR Cup Series driver Ryan Blaney (12) during the Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports
A couple of notes that I always like to note on restrictior plate tracks:
- Most importantly, the restrictor plates. On track, the cars have about the same horsepower – meaning they will be nose to tail all day. This means drivers who usually aren’t relevant get made relevant, and if there is a crash – it’s going to end the day of 3-15 drivers in an instant.
- It’s very seldom that the optimal lineup maxes that salary cap. Whacky lineups galore.
- I think the most important thing this week will be playing at least five differential plays. Drivers in the back have the benefit of more fast laps, since the cars infront of them are cutting the air for them.
Now regardless of what strategy you play this week – plate tracks have a DNF rate of around 20%. Meaning every driver in the field this Sunday will have a one in five chance of not completing all the laps. This makes just about any strategy volatile. With that in mind, understanding the correct optimal place differential strategy certainly gives us an edge.
Rather than give you top plays, fades, and values, I am going to give you my thoughts on each driver starting 25th or worse, and allow you to create a strategy with that in mind. Bolded drivers are drivers I consider top plays. Keep in mind that other drivers starting better than 25th aren’t unplayable, just a little more volatile.
Ryan Preece – Preece is fairly reliable on plate tracks, and pretty consistently runs inside the top 15. This is probably a decent spot for him, but I think the ceiling on him is capped slightly.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr – Stenhouse is one the best plate drivers in the field and while his aggression is often punished, Dega tends to be much more forgiving. He will be very chalk, but could easily end up in the optimal.
Bubba Wallace – Bubba is a solid Dega driver, though more of his success has been at Daytona. Still – he is a solid play here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the top 5 at some point.
Ty Dillon – Dillon has never finished worse than 17th at Dega, and 6/7 starts have resulted in top 15 runs. Another chalk play, but he is amazing at avoiding chaos and should be able to score well.
Corey LaJoie – I fear that this team, which is moving on from LaJoie at the conclusion of 2020, has checked out a bit. They have been sloppy as of late, and that behavior will be punished at Dega. That said, LaJoie has improved a ton on plate tracks and has been able to put this car inside the top ten. Decent play, but I am not going overboard.
Tyler Reddick – Will probably be the highest owned player in the field. Was leading at Dega earlier this year before making a rookie mistake and wrecking. I suspect him to charge up this field and be in the top 5 until we either wins, or wrecks.
Daniel Suarez – Suarez will likely go a bit over owned, but this isn’t a great spot. He has the ability to steal a top 15, but this car is just slow and Suarez will struggle to make natural passes, instead relying on mistakes and carnage.
Brennan Poole – Carnage play at best, fade at worst. Equipment is sketchy.
Quin Houff – Carnage play at best, fade at worst. Equipment is sketchy.
Justin Haley – Chastain put this car P16 a few weeks ago at Daytona, and P25 earlier in the year. Haley is probably even better than Chastain at plate tracks and should place very well so long as the car holds.
Joey Gase- Carnage play at best, fade at worst. Equipment is sketchy.
Timmy Hill – Of all the sketchy carnage plays, this is probably your best bet. Hill is a rock solid plate racer with full sponsorship this week.
James Davison – Carnage play at best, fade at worst. Equipment is sketchy.
Brendan Gaughan – If you don’t care about price, and this week you probably don’t, Gaughan is pretty solid play. This is an RCR car and engine and Gaughan is very slick on plate tracks. Well his finshes have left a little to be desired recently, seldom do you see a cup plate race without Gaughan near the front at some point. It’s his retirement race, so he will likely lay back and work for a good finish.
So there it is folks, use that to start your research. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock, and thats what it will be all about this week. Strategy. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.
