BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC Fight Island 5 Location – Abu Dhabi
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card back at Fight Island. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games & look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience & you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player & it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups & 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights, & hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Tagir Ulanbekov $9,300 vs Bruno Silva $6,900
Tagir Ulanbekov
Age: N/A
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: N/A
Gym: Eagles MMA
From: Russia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 22
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -410
Tagir Ulanbekov is the next Russian to make his UFC debut. He is coming out of Eagles MMA, and another guy having a connection to Khabib and that crew. Ulanbekov is a well-rounded fighter who is tall & long for the division. Ulanbekov has a really nice, active jab. He will throw some nice one-twos. Ulanbekov will throw some nice jab, body kicks or jab, high kicks. He has good timing on counter hooks & straights. Ulanbekov has good forward pressure and controls the distance well. His game plan in fights is to use his reach to back fighters up to the cage & get takedowns. His defense on the feet is not the best. He has tall man’s defense and is hittable. Ulanbekov has two knockouts in his career & has never been finished. His one loss was to Zhalgas Zhumagulov which was a majority decision I felt he won.
Tagir Ulanbekov is an awesome grappler. He backs fighters to the cage & has good body locks and double legs. Ulanbekov is really good at circling to the back from standing. He will grind fighters against the cage as well. Ulanbekov on top is aggressive. He has good passing ability & is heavy on top. Ulanbekov will move into mount or the back & has really good front chokes. His rear-naked choke and back control are high level. Ulanbekov has solid ground & pound and stays active when on top. Ulanbekov has six submission victories. He has good cardio and has fought high-level opponents. He’s a solid addition to the division.
Bruno Silva
Age: 30
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 66”
Gym: Fight Ready MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-2
Fight Matrix: 115
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +330
Bruno Silva is 0-2 in the UFC & fighting for his career here. The former roommate of Henry Cejudo had some hype when he entered the UFC but it’s all fizzled now. Silva is getting another really tough matchup against this debuting Russian. Silva’s first two UFC fights have come against solid competition. He was finished by Khalid Taha who was on steroids, and then dropped David Dvorak in the first, but lost a decision. Silva is a great kicker. Silva doesn’t have the greatest hands. He is very fast, has a nice jab & decent hooks, but holds his hands low. Silva brings his hands back too slow after throwing punches & can get tagged clean. He will leap in with dangerous overhands and hooks that definitely have power. Silva tends to be on the outside & throw a lot of kicks before timing takedowns. He is extremely fast and has very good movement. He throws nice round & front kicks to the body & head. Silva landed a front kick to the face that rocked Dvorak in round one of his last fight. Silva will throw spinning kicks to the body & head. He throws nice, front leg sidekicks to the body & head. If Silva can stay on the outside & use his kicks, he is a good striker. In his fights with Dvorak and Taha, he struggled with forward pressure. Silva was walked down, dropped multiple times and got it put on him a little bit in both fights. Silva is a great athlete & is training with a thriving camp. Silva has 4 KO/TKO’s & has been knocked out one time. He was finished in 7 seconds with a head kick.
Bruno Silva is a good grappler. He is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt & trains with one of the best wrestling coaches in MMA in Eric Albarracin. Silva digs double underhooks excellently & has great control against the fence. He will throw nice knees to the legs & body along with having nice body locks and trips. Silva will duck under into double legs also & has good shots. On top, he has good control & is aggressive. He likes to progress to mount or the back & has multiple rear naked choke victories. Silva has good ground & pound and can grind 3 rounds hard for takedowns. In this fight I expect him to try to keep the fight standing. His cardio isn’t the best as he does slow down in the third.
Ulanbekov is making his UFC debut here and he looks like a legit prospect. He is a Sambo fighter with a grappling heavy style. He is good at getting guys to the mat and he is good at keeping them there. He can get submissions or GNP finishes, and this should be a spot he can land takedowns in. If this fight stays standing it will be pretty boring and much closer, but Ulanbekov is the pick to win all 3-rounds with a heavy top control game.
Ulanbekov is like a mini Khabib so I think we have to have some interest here and they gave him a matchup he should dominate. I like Aspinall more, so I am not sure how much Ulanbekov I will be able to afford, but one of those two will likely be in every one of my 20 lineups if I can afford it. I think he can score over 100 in a decision win and I think he will get this fight to the mat every round that we see. Silva will be a fade for me because I think he would need a lucky sub or a boring striking match to win and I’d rather not invest in that personally.
Winner – Tagir Ulanbekov via Unanimous Decision
Tracy Cortez $9,000 vs Stephanie Egger $7,200
Tracy Cortez
Age: 26
Height: 5’5
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Fight Ready MMA
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 19
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -185
Tracy Cortez is making her second start in the UFC BW division. Cortez won a dominant decision in her debut over Vanessa Melo. Cortez has some high-level wins such as Erin Blanchfield & Mariya Agapova outside the UFC. Cortez is the more athletic fighter & more technical with her striking, wrestling & clinch control. Cortez is going to have a big speed advantage on the feet. She uses a lot of lateral movement & then blitzes in with punch combos or takedown attempts. She has a nice jab to the head & body. She has a fast one-two & good left hook, straight-right hand. She is good at landing one-twos and then closing the distance with hook combos while moving her head well. She will duck under & come over the top with shots, which also disguises her level changes on the double which are very good. She is even decent striking while moving backwards, sticking opponents with jabs and straight punches. She has good timing when she blitzes in with her left hook & front knee to the body. She doesn’t look very powerful though, and fighters who get inside on her can tag her with combos. When she throws kicks, she leaves her chin high & right on center line. She also doesn’t always bring her hands back to her chin after she throws punches & gets countered clean. I have seen her hit with some solid shots, and she doesn’t seem to like being hit much. She got hit with some hard shots versus Melo. She doesn’t have great power either. She has no standing KO’s & has never been finished by strikes.
Tracy Cortez is a strong wrestler. Her grappling is what she uses to win fights. She has very good double leg & body lock takedowns. She is very good at getting deep on double legs and turning it into trips when opponents try to defend. She is very active with her wrestling & control against the cage. She likes to push opponents to the cage, control the far wrist & land knees to the body & elbows or short punches to the head. I think in this fight she needs to have periods of clinch control against the cage. She should be the stronger and more active fighter there & should be able to control position. Cortez on top is good, but not great. She has solid top control & when she can pass guard she is very aggressive. She likes to get the crucifix in side control & has a good mount. She likes to throw heavy ground & pound from those positions but can get too high in the guard & reversed. She really like to take the back & is very aggressive in her pursuit for it. In her last match, she had back control for large parts of every round. She can get swept when she goes for the back. She is too aggressive & sloppy when going for it at times. When she can get her hooks in though, she will get the body triangle & has good control. She will flatten opponents out & land nice ground & pound. She will hang out in an opponent’s guard & look for ground & pound, but her submission defense is questionable. She will get caught in deep armbars. She was caught in an armbar for the majority of the first round in her fight with Blanchard. Her takedown defense is good & she has great get-ups off her back. She is very good at using her feet on the hips to stand back up. She has great balance when defending takedowns. She likes to try to take the back with switches when opponents go for singles along with attacking kimuras. She was taken down in the third round of her match with Blanchard and was controlled on the ground. She was mounted, and almost got caught in an arm triangle. She showed heart surviving to win the decision because she easily could have looked for a way out. She was eventually able to scramble back her feet with 1-minute left in round & went for it on the feet. She is a dog & has that Mexican heart. Cortez seems to get very tired in round 3 & really slows down. Cortez’s one loss was in her debut. She got caught in a guillotine in the clinch & submitted.
Stephanie Egger
Age: 32
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: N/A
Gym: Buddy Gym
From: Switzerland
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 20
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +160
Stephanie Egger will be making her UFC debut. She is a 5-1 prospect riding a three-fight win streak. Egger has fought in some good promotions such as Invicta and Rizin. She has victories over Mara Romero Borella, and Reina Miura. Egger kind of reminds me of a more athletic Cindy Dandois. Egger on the feet is very stiff. She is big & long though and comes forward aggressively. Egger will throw some straight punches or overhands and use that to get inside. Egger will throw some kicks, but her kicks are not great, telegraphed & not set up. She will throw low kicks & round & front kicks to the body. She does seem like she has okay power and will wing sloppily to try to get fighters to stop pressuring. Egger’s defense is awful. She walks into strikes & if she can’t grapple she will lose. She got busted up in her fight with Alexa Conners & dropped a decision. She is durable & showed toughness in that fight. Egger has two TKO victories.
Stephanie Egger is a very good grappler. She is big for the division & has a black belt in judo. Egger gets in the clinch & has nasty trips and throws. She is super strong and just bullies girls to the mat. Against lower level girls she can overwhelm them with ground & pound. Egger has heavy top pressure, passes aggressively and has decent submissions. Egger will take the mount and land hard shots. She has a good back take & rear naked choke. Egger was exhausted in the third round of her fight with King Reina in Rizin. Egger has finished four of her five wins in the first round. Her two fights that went past round one both went to decision. Egger is 1-1 when fights hit the scorecards.
Egger is stepping in on short notice to make her UFC debut here. This is a tough spot for her though and I personally don’t see any advantages for her. She looks to be mostly a grappler, but Cortez is the better wrestler/grappler so it’s hard seeing her have any real success there. Maybe we see some crazy armbar from guard by Egger, but this is a matchup Cortez should be able to clearly win.
This is dog or pass for me on DraftKings because maybe Egger can pull off a submission, and I just am not interested in paying up for Cortez. If Cortez wants to keep this striking, she should win a clear 30-27, but she won’t score well on DK. If she wants to go to the mat, she puts herself in more danger and I don’t know that she would have the volume to pay off the salary if she can’t finish. Cortez is a fade for me, but Egger is an OK punt in all formats if you need to pay down that low. Not a play I like at all but one I am willing to roster for cheap.
Winner – Tracy Cortez via Unanimous Decision
Omar Morales $8,300 vs Giga Chikadze $7,900
Omar Morales
Age: 34
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 74”
Gym: Hard Knocks 365
From: Venezuela
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 64
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W10
Betting Odds: -145
Omar Morales is a dangerous striker & a nice addition to the LW division. He showed off his skill in a three-round decision over Don Hyun Ma in his debut. He followed that up by showing his heart in a war with Mogley Benitez. Morales is an explosive, technical counter striker. He has awesome kicks and has much better kicks than punches. Morales has a nasty low calf kick he uses against almost everybody. We saw him destroy the lead leg of Harvey Park in his DWCS fight. Morales is a fighter who likes to go forward, pressure, feint but stay on the outside occasionally kick and wait to counter. Morales has decent hand speed & straight punches. A lot of his punching attacks will be just one straight or one overhand. He doesn’t throw in combination much with his hands when he’s going first. He does do a good job of countering while moving backwards, planting and exploding in with a power shot. Morales also has decent counter combinations in close range. In the pocket is where he doesn’t like to be though. His defense and hands aren’t his best weapon, and he tries to avoid exchanging by clinching. Morales is a smart fighter who is low risk. He has nasty round & spinning kicks to the body & head. He will mix in some nice flying knees. Morales is a dangerous fighter on the feet, because he is good going forward, but can counter moving backwards. He also is very fast, can throw a lot of different attacks, and his leg kicks are superb. If opponents keep it a range striking fight, I think he has a chance against anybody. When fighting Omar, his opponents have to make it ugly. Omar is still green & hasn’t faced much adversity in his career. We haven’t seen how he will react when he gets stunned or dropped. Morales is a fiery guy & will scream and get pumped up after being hit. He seems like he would be willing to throw down if need be, but no one has brought it out of him. Omar has 2 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Omar Morales’s grappling is still a bit of an unknown. There isn’t a lot of footage of him grappling, but he is a big, explosive guy. In his DWCS match, he showed the ability to dig underhooks & circle off the cage very well. He did allow himself to get backed up & controlled for periods of time during the fight. He was never taken down & probably landed the more clinch strikes too. Morales has nice knees to the body in that position. He does have submission victories & apparently won a decision with a wrestle heavy game plan. Unfortunately, I haven’t been able to find much footage of him defending or shooting for takedowns, or on the ground. In his last fight with Dong Hyun Ma, Morales was able to catch kicks & get takedowns a couple of times. He did a good job of controlling on top & winning the fight while burning the clock. His top game didn’t look overly aggressive or dangerous to me though. Morales has 4 career submissions. He showed good cardio in his last two matches and is a composed fighter.
Giga Chikadze
Age: 32
Height: 6’0
Weight: 145
Reach: 74”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Georgia
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 79
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: +125
Giga Chikadze is looking to run his UFC record to 4-0. He is a switch stance fighter with elite speed. He likes to walk fighters down, stay light on his feet, and try to pull counter. He usually is in southpaw stance initially. He has a nasty jab, a good one-two & devastating kicks. He has a really nice pull counter straight & left hook. He isn’t an overly punch heavy guy & doesn’t throw many punch combos at all. Chikadze is very kick heavy. He has nasty front & round kicks to the body & head. He has a nasty counter front knee & will throw nice flying knees. He throws beautiful question mark kicks to the head. He will throw axe kicks and spinning kicks to the head as well. Chikadze also loves to throw rolling thunder kicks at the end of rounds. Chikadze’s left kick is a hammer. He has finished multiple opponents with that kick. In his fight with Austin Springer, he was not setting the kick up well & getting them caught & taken down. I’m not sure Chikadze can be effective with his kick happy style & poor takedown defense in MMA. His defense is very good & if an opponent wants to try to be aggressive, he will slip, rip & knock them out. Fighters in MMA have to respect his striking, not exchange & look for takedowns. Chikadze has 5 KO/TKO’s. Chikadze has been finished a couple times in kickboxing but has a strong chin.
Giga Chikadze is not a good grappler. He throws a lot of kicks which makes it easy to take him down. He also was getting double legged vs Brandon Davis who isn’t a good wrestler. On the mat, Chikadze looks very raw. He was allowing Davis to mount and move to dominant positions very easily. He did sweep Davis once, and landed some decent ground & pound. Chikadze was able to use an omaplata to stand up vs Austin Springer. In this fight he is going to want to stay off his back.
Morales should look to get this fight to the ground, but it is hard to trust that he will. If we knew his game plan would be to work in takedowns, then I would favor him over 2-1 in this spot. Chikadze is a kickboxer and he is only going to look to strike at range. If he can make Morales play the outside game, then Chikadze wins this fight at range. Morales can win this fight on the feet and he just needs to make this more of a brawl and keep it on the inside, so he can get a KO or win a decision that way. He is the pick, but it will just be much easier if he gets takedowns and he can get a submission if he does.
On DraftKings, Morales is my preferred play here and a guy I do want exposure to. I think he is in play for a KO or submission that could score very well, I also think he could rack up some takedowns in this matchup. If he wins those ways he can score highly and make the optimal. If this is a striking fight that goes to a decision, then I don’t want either side of this fight and the winner probably scores 65-70. Giga is in play for the KO, but he is going to need to get that KO to end up on the optimal, so I won’t be forcing him into any lineups and if he makes my player pool it would be because I had $7.9k left for my 6th spot. Morales is in play for cash games though because I don’t see the KO happening and I do like him in this spot.
Winner – Omar Morales via Unanimous Decision
Tony Kelley $8,700 vs Ali Alqaisi $7,500
Tony Kelley
Age: 33
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 70”
Gym: Karate Mafia
From: Louisiana
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -230
Tony Kelley is a good athlete and a dog. He is very fast & throws nice, long combinations. Kelley likes to enter range with long jabs & straights, and inside he has nasty elbows. Kelley likes to play the counter game a lot as well & walk fighters into strikes. He is super tough and is always willing to take one to give one. Kelley is accurate and fast. In this matchup he will definitely have a speed advantage, along with a reach advantage. Kelley will throw some heavy low kicks. He has some decent kicks to the body & head as well. Kelley had a war with Kai Kamaka in his debut and took a lot of damage. He got hurt to the body multiple times, but showed a lot of toughness, and gave a lot of damage back. Kelley has two knockouts in his career & has never been finished.
Tony Kelley’s weakness is his grappling. He is still pretty solid in that realm. In the clinch, Kelley has some nice knees, big elbows, and will mix it up and look to hit trips or level change for takedowns. Kelley has taken a couple of guys down and submitted them. Kelley does not have the best takedown defense himself. He was taken down fairly easily by Kamaka with the double leg against the cage. Kelley has a lot of faith in his guillotine, and that cost him versus Kamaka. He pulled guard with the guillotine in round 3 and ended up on his back for the first half of the round. Kelley is active off his back. He will look for subs, and his get-up game isn’t bad. He needs to improve his wrestling to get to the next level though. However, he is fighting at 135 lbs for this fight. He was taken down in his last two fights, but that was against a LW and a FW. At 135 he will be big & probably tougher to take & hold down. Kelley is a dog & strong fighter overall. He is tough, has good cardio, & is a dog.
Ali Alqaisi
Age: 30
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Phuket Top Team
From: Jordan
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 195
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +190
His opponent Ali Alqaisi is a tough customer as well. Alqaisi is a counter striker on the feet. He really only throws three attacks. He likes to lead with uppercuts & he will counter with the left hook or overhand right. He will throw those shots in combination as well such as an overhand right to a left hook. Alqaisi has good defense and keeps a high guard with decent distance control. His head movement isn’t bad, and he will slip & rip with punches. He does sometimes float his chin when he backs up. He also is susceptible to low kicks & body shots. He has to be careful with the body attack & low kicks of Kelley. Alqaisi isn’t trying to strike for long in his fights. His striking is a means to an end in order to get the fight to the mat. He has one KO in his career. He has never been finished by strikes & is a very tough, dogged fighter.
Ali Alqaisi is a strong grappler. He is excellent at timing body locks & is super strong in those positions. He will just bully fighters to the mat and has good trips. On top, Alqaisi doesn’t have the greatest top control, but he’s dangerous. He will look to progress to dominate positions & finish the fight. When fighters stand up & expose their necks he has an excellent guillotine. I have seen Alqaisi taken down himself. Off his back, he attacks with really quick armbars. He is a good submission grappler. He has good cardio, is risk adverse, and is a pretty good fighter. Alqaisi has four submission victories. He has been submitted one time via rear naked choke in his second pro fight.
Kelley is going to be the better all-around talent and he can win this fight anywhere. On the feet, I don’t think this fight is going to be close and Kelley should win clearly there. The takedown defense is the worry for Kelley here and if he loses this fight it is probably because he spent too much time on his back. Alqaisi doesn’t look good enough to finish him, but maybe he can squeak out two rounds with wrestling. I don’t see it happening though and I think Kelley cruises.
Kelley is my preferred play on DraftKings because I think he has the better chance of finishing and he will be the fighter striking at a much higher pace. He landed 114 sig strikes in a much tougher matchup in his UFC debut loss and Alqaisi doesn’t have that kind of output in him. He will be in trouble on the feet here if he can’t get takedowns and I don’t know that he can land 5 or more takedowns like Kamaka did against Kelley. Alqaisi is in play for his takedowns and if he wins it will be because he landed multiple takedowns and won at least two rounds that way, I just don’t see him getting a finish and even on the ground I think Kelley is more dangerous. Mostly Kelley or pass for me but I won’t X Alqaisi out of my player pool. Kelley is a fine cash game option as well and a safer floor than a few fighters priced above him.
Winner – Tony Kelley via Unanimous Decision
Impa Kasanganay $8,900 vs Joaquin Buckley $7,300
Impa Kasanganay
Age: 26
Height: 5’11
Weight: 185
Reach: 73”
Gym: Gym-O
From: North Carolina
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 104
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -245
Impa Kasanganay continued his winning ways in his UFC debut. Kasanganay got in there with Maki Pitolo and took a fairly one-sided decision. Kasanganay is undefeated at 8-0 and is a solid prospect. This will be Kasangany’s 3rd fight in 2 months. Kasanganay isn’t flashy but he gets the job done. On the feet, he has a come forward pressure style. Kasanganay has a good jab, and heavy low kicks. Kasanganay has good head movement and will slip and return with shots. He was landing big, looping overhands and hooks in his fight with Pitolo & rocked him. Kasanganay will attack the body well. He is a sneaky good athlete. Kasanganay doesn’t pack one punch power, but he still hits hard. He has no KO/TKO’s.
Impa Kasanganay is a strong fighter, good athlete & good grappler. Kasanganay has good timing on his double legs. When he gets fighters to the cage, he will control them in the clinch well & work his knees. He has good takedowns in the clinch & doubles against the cage. When fighters try to stand up, he is good at hanging on the back & racking up the control time. Kasanganay has one rear naked choke in his career. His composure & cardio is amazing for someone so young in his career. He is 6-0 in decisions.
Joaquin Buckley
Age: 26
Height: 5’10
Weight: 185
Reach: 73”
Gym: Finney’s HIT Squad
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 135
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +205
Joaquin Buckley had a rude welcoming to the UFC’s octagon. He got put into the deep end right away against Kevin Holland and drowned. Buckley was knocked out pretty badly in the third round. Buckley is returning just two months after that knockout. Buckley has definitely fought the higher level of competition when you look at the two fighters. He holds wins over a couple pretty good fighters in Bellator. Buckley is a forward pressure striker with power. Buckley likes to use overhands or wide hooks to get in & then lets his hands go inside. Buckley will go to the body with hook combinations & then back up to the head. Buckley will use head movement to try to slip shots and leap in with multi punch combos. Buckley throws some nice kicks also. He throws a lot of front kicks up the middle with some heavy round kicks mixed in. Buckley will mix in lead leg sidekicks to the body, flying knees and spinning kicks. Buckley doesn’t use a lot of fakes or feints when he enters range & is pretty flat footed. He is explosive & closes distance quickly but is hittable and slows down. Holland stabbed Buckley with front kicks to the body, and straight punches down the pipe. He dropped Buckley hard with a straight in the first, before knocking him out in the third. That was the second time that Buckley has gotten knocked out with one punch, and he’s coming back quickly as well. I have to question his chin a little bit. With 7 knockouts, Buckley is definitely dangerous himself.
Joaquin Buckley isn’t the best grappler. Vinicius De Jesús was able to take down Buckley pretty easily with double legs in the center of the octagon. Buckley will overextend on his punches and give up his hips. Buckley is strong and against the cage is much harder to takedown. Buckley is also pretty hard to hold down. Buckley did lose a decision to and elite wrestler in Logan Storley where he was out grappled recently as well. Buckley will hit takedowns of his own. He has good timing on his shots and will drive through & land big takedowns. On top, he isn’t all that threatening. He uses takedowns more to just change up the rhythm of the fight & get points. Buckley has no submissions in his career. Buckley has a questionable gas tank. He slows down in the third round of fights. All his finishes but one have come in the first two rounds. Buckley has a 3-1 record in fights that hit the score cards.
This seems a bit early for Buckley to be fighting after a TKO loss where he was dropped two times only two months ago. Kasanganay is the better fighter everywhere here and he has power that can test that chin. He also has the wrestling edge in this matchup so the only way I see Kasanganay losing this fight is a big bomb from Buckley because he is clearly powerful.
On DraftKings, Kasanganay is my preferred play but this is a fight we can get away from. Kasanganay probably needs a finish to be on the optimal lineup here and he hasn’t shown to be a KO puncher. However, Buckley was put away only two months ago so that makes me want to be over the field on a guy that might go overlooked. I think Impa is in play in all formats here but if he gets a decision win he probably doesn’t reach 10x. Buckley is in play for the KO, but a punchers’ chance is the only way I see him winning. If he gets it he could be on the nuts though, so he is in play for GPPs, I just won’t get to much of him personally.
Winner – Impa Kasanganay via 2nd round (T)KO
Rodrigo Nascimento $9,200 vs Chris Daukaus $7,000
Rodrigo Nascimento
Age: 27
Height: 6’2
Weight: 255
Reach: 80”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 89
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -260
Rodrigo Nascimento will be making his second appearance in the UFC’s octagon. The Brazilian prospect is fighting out of a good gym in American Top Team and was impressive in his UFC debut. Nascimento was able to finish Don’Tale Mayes in round two. Nascimento has finished all eight of his wins and has never been out of the second round. Nascimento is a well-rounded fighter. He’s known more now as a Jiu-Jitsu guy, but I’m pretty impressed with his striking also. He is super aggressive, comes forward hard and is fast for a HW. Nascimento has nice leg kicks, a good jab, left hook & nasty body kicks. He will explode forward with punching combinations. He is good at slipping & ripping & landing wide hooks. Nascimento has some nice, hard round kicks to the body. Nascimento has a nasty high kick. His defense isn’t the best on the feet, but not the worst. Nascimento should be improving consistently fighting out of ATT. He has two knockouts in his career.
Rodrigo Nascimento is a good Jiu-Jitsu player. I am not sure what his belt rank is, but I would guess he’s a black belt. Nascimento doesn’t have the best takedowns, but in the clinch he has pretty good trips. He has heavy hips as well & is good at denying takedowns and ending up on top. Nascimento is slow & deliberate on top. He likes to stay heavy in half guard or side control. He has a strong, arm triangle choke. He will look for kimuras. Nascimento likes to take the back. On the back, he has a good rear naked choke. He will look for armbars. Nascimento has six submissions in his career. He has never been to the third round, but he pressures hard, pushes a hard pace, and I haven’t seen him slow down.
Chris Daukaus
Age: 31
Height: 6’3
Weight: 241
Reach: 76”
Gym: Martinez BJJ
From: Pennsylvania
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 112
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +220
Chris Daukaus was successful in his first UFC fight as well. He earned his eighth knockout of his career. Daukaus is another fighter who isn’t one to see the judges’ scorecards. He has gone to decision just one time in his career. Daukaus has fast hands for a heavyweight, good feints and pretty good movement. He has good jabs and one-twos down the pipe. He will throw a tricky high kick. Daukaus will get fighters against the fence where he has good flurries and power. He definitely is going to have the power edge in this fight. Eight of Daukaus’ nine wins have come by KO/TKO. In Daukaus’ fight with UFC veteran Zu Anyanwu, he was actually doing quite well. He hurt Zu multiple times, dropped him & won the first round 10-8. In round two he was a lot more tired, but still winning the fight & just got caught with a right hand and taken out. In exchanges, Daukaus can be hittable. He’s been finished by strikes twice himself.
Chris Daukaus is not a very active grappler. He is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu though. I have seen him push fighters against the cage and look for trips. He dropped Zu with a knee. Daukaus doesn’t go for takedowns very often in his fights though. He did takedown Zu, but Zu got up pretty quickly. I am not really sure about how he is on top or on bottom. He was submitted in 2015 by Shawn Teed. In this fight, Daukaus has to be ready if he gets put on his back.
Nascimento is going to have the edge on the ground here and if he can get it there he can probably keep it there long enough to win the round or just get a submission or GNP finish. Daukaus looked much improved on the feet in his UFC debut and so much so that I do give him the advantage there and he could win a striking decision or get a knockout. Nascimento should be the favorite in this spot but his line being almost 3-1 is too high from what we have seen from him against weak competition and it makes this a dog or pass fight on the betting line.
This is going to be a must-target fight in GPPs with the -510 FDGTD line. Under 1.5 rounds is even juiced at -150 so this is a good fight on both sides for GPPs and it will be in more than half my lineups for sure. Daukaus is my preferred play though because he is so cheap, and he can have success on the feet in this fight. He might even have some grappling chops as well, I just don’t see him having the edge there. GPP only, but Daukaus is a guy I want to be above the field on. I will have Nascimento exposure as well, but I will be closer to the field on him and maybe underweight just because I like the fighters in his price range a lot more. Either way, load up on this fight in GPPs but fade it in cash.
Winner – Rodrigo Nascimento via 2nd round Submission
Tom Breese $9,100 vs KB Bhullar $7,100
Tom Breese
Age: 29
Height: 6’3
Weight: 185
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: Ultimate Training Centre
From: England
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 52
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -260
Tom Breese will be looking for a better result this time out after a lackluster return fight. Breese was finished pretty quickly against Brendan Allen & didn’t look good. It’s hard to get a read on Breese, because he is a skilled guy but it’s hard to anticipate which guy shows up on the night. Breese is a very tall and long fighter who has been putting a lot of priority on boxing, and fighting long. He has a long stance & likes to pump out his jab and straight-left hand. He will front & fake while walking opponents down to keep them on the back foot. His straight-left hand is very accurate & he controls distance with it well. He has nasty front kicks to the body. He will throw a jab, left hook combination. He will throw a nasty right hook, straight-left hand combination. He will throw an uppercut, right hook combo. He has nice inside, outside leg kicks. He will throw a straight-left hand, jab, body kick combination. He will throw front & round kicks to the head. He will throw superman punches. He has good head movement & lateral footwork. He uses his length well to walk opponents into his shots & pot shot them over three rounds. He has very good hand speed & keeps the volume high. He does stand heavy on his lead leg & it’s there to be leg kicked. Breese has 4 KO/TKO’s. He got pounded out for the first time in his career & finished by TKO versus Allen.
Tom Breese is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and has a good ground game. He isn’t an offensive wrestler, and his wrestling defense is a bit questionable. He can be bullied a bit in the clinch & doesn’t have great technique. He doesn’t dig underhooks & will just try to stall out the position by defending with his length. Nakamura was able to take him down in the clinch multiple times. He did look improved defending clinch takedowns & digging underhooks more against Sean Strickland. Off his back, he is still very good. He will attack with leg locks & is an elite leg kick guy in MMA. He has very good triangles from full guard & Bhullar will have to mind his P’s & Q’s if he takes top position. He has used it several times to sweep to top position. Brendan Allen took down Breese, dominated him and finished him in the first. Once he gets on top, he is very good. He distributes his weight well & his length makes him heavy on top. He will land nice elbows from half guard. He will move to side control & attack with the crucifix and inverted triangles. He has competed in EBI & is a legit black belt. Breese has 6 career submissions.
KB Bhullar
Age: 28
Height: 6’4
Weight: 185
Reach: N/A
Gym: Hayabusa Training Centre
From: Canada
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 83
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: +220
KB the Bengal Bhullar will be making his UFC debut with a spotless 8-0 record. Bhullar is from Canada but should have massive support from India as well. Bhullar is a big guy for MW at 6’4. Bhullar tries to stay loose on the feet. He is low volume on the feet and looks to counter or clinch. He will hand fight & extend his arm to maintain distance, and then pop in some jabs or straights. Bhullar has some nice low kicks. He will throw some hard round & front kicks to the body. He landed a low kick to high kick combination that knocked out one of his recent opponents. He has really nice question mark kicks to the head. He will try to walk fighters into knees & spinning attacks. Bhullar is kind of slow though, and low volume on the feet. He can fight from both stances but can be a little bit flat footed and hittable. Bhullar has four knockout wins.
KB Bhullar is a grappler, but not elite or anything. He does have good clinch control. He will get the Thai plum & land hard knees & elbows. Bhullar has good throws and body locks. Bhullar has decent control, and nice elbows on top. Bhullar has good front chokes. He has a north/south choke & darce choke on his record. Bhullar isn’t super dangerous off his back, but his guard is hard to pass. He was taken down and controlled for the large majority of his last fight. Bhullar has good cardio & gets better as fights go on.
Bhullar is making his UFC debut with a perfect 8-0 record. This is by far his toughest fight to date though and if Breese makes it to the cage with his anxiety issues, I think he wins this fight. He should be better and more dangerous everywhere in this fight and he can finish on the feet or the ground. He probably wants to keep this fight on the feet though and if he does, he should cruise to a decision win if he can’t get a knockout along the way.
Breese is the preferred play here on DraftKings and he should go under owned. He is hard to trust with his anxiety issues and there is a chance he pulls out of this fight after lock. That makes him a GPP only play but it also keeps his ownership down and could make him a good play. I will be getting exposure to Breese here and I think he is better everywhere. Bhullar looks like he has been fighting guys picked out of the crowd and this is a huge step up for him. I probably X him out of my player pool if I stick to 20 or less lineups.
Winner – Tom Breese via Unanimous Decision
Youssef Zalal $8,600 vs Ilia Topuria $7,600
Youssef Zalal
Age: 24
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 75”
Gym: FactoryX Muay Thai
From: Morocco
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 97
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -170
Youssef Zalal is continuing his torrent pace fighting for the fourth time in 2020. He is 3-0 in the UFC & has looked very strong in his outings. Zalal was supposed to fight UFC veteran Gavin Tucker, but with Tucker falling out he’s now facing a UFC newcomer. Zalal is a slick fighter with plus skills on the feet & on the mat. Zalal is a tall, lanky striker with nice movement. He is constantly switching stances with good head movement. Zalal isn’t great with the hands. He will throw the jab out there a lead hook, uses a one-two but his defense in boxing range is bad. Zalal does have nice low kicks. He has excellent round& front kicks to the body & head. He will throw nice question mark kicks and looks to be kicking & moving until he can time level changes. He did land a nasty spinning heel kick that rocked his last opponent. He does have nasty kicks with both legs & can put fighters down with kicks. He has a nasty flying knee. Zalal is very fast & explosive. He will be the better athlete in this matchup. Zalal has two KO/TKO’s. I have seen Zalal get rocked with punches but never dropped & he recovers quickly. His striking is definitely improving.
Youssef Zalal likes to mix it up & I see him as the clearly superior wrestler in this fight. Zalal has nice level changes with single & double legs to complement his clinch takedowns. He will shoot a jab or straight out, and then duck under into the single leg. I definitely see him getting a few takedowns in this matchup. In top position, Zalal has very good control & nice ground & pound. Zalal likes to get to side control, trap a near side wrist & throw punches. He will throw heavy elbows that cut opponents open, but his main objective is getting to the back mount. Zalal will lock up very nice rear naked chokes. Zalal also will attack guillotines, darces & brabo chokes when opponents work to stand up. He has nasty front choke submissions. He did lose some grappling exchanges in his last match and gave up his back but showed good scrambling ability and superior cardio. Zalal has five submission victories & has never been finished. He has great cardio & doesn’t slow down in fights.
Ilia Topuria
Age: 23
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: N/A
Gym: Clement Team
From: Georgia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 245
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: +150
Ilia Topuria will be making his UFC debut as a undefeated 8-0 prospect. Topuria is a Georgian fighter, with some decent wins. He has largely run through everyone he’s fought with 7 first round finishes & 8 of his 8 pro wins being finished within the first two rounds. Topuria is a super explosive, dangerous striker. Topuria is a little wild, but clearly improving. He maintains distance well. Topuria has a solid jab, & a really nice two & pull counter. He will throw some nasty overhands & lead uppercuts. He will throw some really tight lead hooks to the body & head. He is very wild with his hands. In his last fight on Brave, he did get dropped early on with a high kick but recovered really quickly and ended up closing the show with an absolutely viscous knockout of his own. He landed one overhand that crumbled his opponent. That was Topuria’s first knockout of his career.
Topuria is a very strong grappler. He has very nice timing on his level changes. Topuria closes the distance quickly, uses his hands to disguise the level change and hit doubles. Topuria on top is an aggressive passer. He will grapevine the legs to avoid the guard and is very good at sticking the back. Once Topuria takes the back, he has excellent control. Topuria has nasty rear naked choke victories. Topuria will hunt for guillotines & armbars from the back also. He also has some sweet front chokes. Topuria is super aggressive and dangerous in the first. He has 7 first round submissions. Topuria’s cardio is a question mark as he never has been past the midway point of round two.
Topuria is making his UFC debut on short notice with an undefeated 8-0 record, with 7 of those wins being submissions and the other a knockout. He has a solid jab and overhand right on the feet but Zalal is the better striker here and he should cruise on the feet and get a knockout or a clear decision win if he can keep it there. Topuria could have grappling success though and if he can get takedowns, he is live for a submission. He could win a decision if he can win two rounds with his grappling as well, but on short notice it might be hard to have that game plan, so the submission is his best shot.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is going to be Topuria and I think he will be a popular underdog. If he wins it will likely be grappling heavy or an early submission. At $7.6k he is going to have a good shot at being on the optimal with a win here, so I will look to be overweight here. I also like him for cash games because I don’t see him getting finished early, so he has a decent floor here in a loss as well. I am picking Zalal to win though so that is keeping me from making him a core play and I will probably just be a bit above the field. Zalal is a low owned GPP option but I don’t see me getting to him with 20 or less lineups. If he wins here it will probably be a decision or a late finish and at $8.6k that probably won’t cut it on this card.
Winner – Youssef Zalal via Unanimous Decision
Tom Aspinall $9,400 vs Alan Baudot $6,800
Tom Aspinall
Age: 27
Height: 6’5
Weight: 248
Reach: 78”
Gym: Team Kaobon Liverpool
From: England
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 111
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -550
Tom Aspinall made quick work of his opponent in his UFC debut. He had yet another finish in under one minute. Aspinall has a clock on his back, but in the cage, he has no time. All his wins have come in the first round inside of 1 minute & 30 seconds. The level of competition for Aspinall has been very low, but he did defeat Jake Collier in 45 seconds as well. Aspinall is very athletic for a heavyweight. He has great movement, fast hands and good boxing. He has a very nice jab, and likes to back guys up, work the jab and then slip in the straight-right that knocks them out. He will throw one-twos followed by short hooks. He has pretty good uppercuts. He is excellent at landing a one, sliding out of range, and then coming back with two more. He backs fighters up, feints, picks and pulls, and really makes guys uncomfortable. He will attack the body with punches. Aspinall has nasty low kicks and round kicks to the body. In a recent fight he had on cage warriors, he checked a kick, and broke his opponent’s leg. Aspinall has seven knockouts in his eight wins.
Tom Aspinall is a black belt & strong Jiu-Jitsu player. He hasn’t really looked to use it a lot in his MMA career yet. Aspinall isn’t a very good wrestler. He does do a great job of backing guys up towards the cage and will shoot in on some double legs. In top position, Aspinall wastes no time looking for ground & pound and submissions. Aspinall thus far in his MMA career has just preferred to use ground & pound to win. He has just one submission via heel hook. Aspinall’s defensive wrestling looks pretty good. In the one fight he had against a good grappler, he was taken down quite easily. Stuart Austin who is a judo black belt was able to take Aspinall down with judo throws, and a double leg. Aspinall has shown very fast hips recently, defending takedowns very well. Once Stuart got on top of Aspinall, Aspinall showed some skill. He showed the ability to throw up triangles & armbars and has pretty solid get-ups. In that fight with Austin, Aspinall did sweep Austin, and almost finished him with ground & pound. While he was doing that he got caught sleeping & was submitted with a heel hook. That is Aspinall’s one real loss as the other was a DQ loss due to a 12-6 elbow.
Alan Baudot
Age: 32
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 79”
Gym: MMA Factory
From: France
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +425
Alan Baudot will be making his UFC debut here on short notice. Baudot is another HW coming out of the MMA factory in France. Baudot is 8-1 overall, but versus mostly low-level competition. His one loss came at the hands of UFC fighter Dalcha Lungiambula. Baudot landed a couple decent shots that tagged Dalcha, but became too aggressive and was knocked out running in. The whole fight was less than 30 seconds long. Baudot is an athletic guy for HW though. He is a mover & has good punches and kicks. At range, Baudot throws solid combinations. He has a nice jab. He will throw some good one-twos. Baudot throws some nice hooks & uppercuts. Baudot will look throw a lot of nice kicks; Front & round kicks to the body & head and good low kicks. Baudot will throw some wild techniques. He will throw some crazy spinning attacks, such as spinning elbows, jump attacks, and rolling thunders. Baudot is dangerous when he can go forward, keep the distance and work from range. When fighters close the distance if he can’t catch them coming in he’s vulnerable to boxing. Forward pressure and boxing will give Baudot issues with his style. Baudot is fun to watch and he has seven knockouts in his eight wins. His one loss he did go out stiff.
Alan Baudot is not a bad grappler. In the clinch, Baudot looks pretty physical. He throws some nice knees and has good trips and throws. Baudot can be sloppy with his grappling though. He used a lot of throws which can expose his back. He doesn’t defend takedowns on the legs as well either. Baudot on top is pretty vicious with ground & pound but doesn’t have the best Jiu-Jitsu or top control. He did get reversed multiple times in his last fight after taking top position. Baudot did not look very good off his back. He was dominated on top, gave his back & got choked out with a rear naked choke. The fight got changed to a disqualification win for Baudot. It says on Sherdog it was overturned by the promoter, but to be honest I’m not sure why it was. Baudot has solid defensive wrestling though, and makes fighters pay with big elbows & knees. He will get flashy and throw spinning elbows and such off the break as well. Baudot has been finished just one time officially but was submitted by rear naked choke in his last fight. He has two losses, one by knockout, and another by Ring Out in a custom rules match in Japan so I’m not sure what that even means. Baudot’s cardio is not the greatest.
Baudot is making his UFC debut on short notice. His record shows 8-1 which looks OK, but he was actually finished in 2 of his last 3 fights so I’m not sure why he even got the call up other than short notice. His last fight shows as a win that was overturned by the promoter, but when you watch it, he gets finished in the 3rd round after not looking good the first 2. I am not sure why it was overturned but don’t let that 8-1 fool you, he isn’t UFC ready. Aspinall should be able to dominate here and I expect a knockout along the way.
This is Aspinall or pass for me and he is a play I want to be high on. I would probably lock him into cash games, and I will look to go overweight in GPPs. I think he is going to be levels ahead of Baudot and likely gets a finish. He has a -240 ITD line but the worry is that maybe he finishes him too fast and only scores ~105, and as the highest priced guy maybe that doesn’t cut it. Baudot has a punchers’ chance and will be very low owned, so that is the reason to play him if you need one, but he won’t make my lineups unless I make over 50.
Winner – Tom Aspinall via 1st round (T)KO
Dricus Du Plessis $8,400 vs Markus Perez $7,800
Dricus Du Plessis
Age: 26
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 76”
Gym: Team CIT
From: South Africa
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 56
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -160
Dricus Du Plessis enters a slight favorite in his UFC debut here. He is a South African prospect who has competed in EFC & KSW. Du Plessis is the former KSW & EFC champion. Du Plessis is an entertaining fighter & has never been to decision in 16 fights. Du Plessis on the feet is a bit stiff, but he is long, aggressive and athletic. Du Plessis throws very nice low kicks and is very active with them. He has some heavy round & front kicks to the body. Du Plessis will come forward with straight punch blitzes followed by short hooks. In the pocket, he is very dangerous with his counter left hook. He is super-fast and explosive and can turn an opponent’s lights out with one shot. Du Plessis’s defense is not good. He shells up & doesn’t move his feet. He will eat shots & doesn’t have the greatest chin. Du Plessis is very tough & when he’s hurt, he’s still dangerous. Du Plessis has five victories by KO/TKO.
Dricus Du Plessis is a very physically strong, imposing fighter. At 185 lbs he isn’t as big as he is when he fights at 170, but still a big guy. Du Plessis is very strong in the clinch. He will land nice trips & throws. He is really strong when he can circle to the back. He will hit suplexes, and or jump on the back from standing. He has very good control from that position, and nice rear naked chokes. If you look at his record he has a ton of wins via rear naked. He can be taken down if opponents time his kicks. He has good get-ups, and even if he does get taken down he will attack off his back. Du Plessis has a nice high guard and will even go mission control and throw elbows. He is hard to hold down. Du Plessis has a nasty guillotine he will catch in scrambles or when fighters shoot in on him. Du Plessis doesn’t shoot a lot himself. He likes to strike, and only shoots when he gets hurt. He likes to make fighters shoot in on him and catch that guillotine or use it to get on top. Du Plessis has nine submissions. He has been submitted one time. Du Plessis has great cardio & pushes a high pace.
Markus Perez
Age: 30
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 2-3
Fight Matrix: 98
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +140
Markus Perez is returning for his sixth UFC fight. Thus far in Perez’s career he has been struggling to find consistency. Perez is 2-3 & has been trading wins & losses his entire career. He is a fun, flashy fighter who likes to be a showman in the cage, using crazy techniques, taunting, and showing a lot of emotion. Perez likes to fight on the outside & use a lot of kicks. He will throw rear leg body kicks & occasionally go to the head. His left body kick is nasty and going to cause a lot of issues for Du Plessis in my opinion. Perez will throw front kicks to the body & head. He will switch stances & has a nice straight-left & straight-right hand. His straight-left hand is probably better & he spends more time in southpaw. He has a decent jab, left hook combination, and will feint the jab and throw an overhand left combination. Perez has nice lead elbows & step-in knees to the body. Perez throws a lot of wild techniques, such as spinning back elbows & round kicks to the body into spinning heel kicks to the head. He will throw up elbows into spinning back elbows. He is at his best when he gets confident & will get in the pocket & slip and rip. He allows fighters to push him back as well and can almost look like he is running away at times. His awkward striking puts him off balance & in bad positions where he could be countered. He will invite a war when he knows he’s behind & try to steal the fight. Perez has 3 KO/TKO’s in his career. He has a good chin and is a wild man who has never been finished in his career.
Perez is an opportunistic grappler and will jump on submissions. In the clinch, he can be outmuscled, and controlled on the cage, but he did show that if he can circle to the back he has nice slam takedowns. He is improving with his wrestling a lot & it’s pretty evident. He will even pull guard & attack with leg locks to create sweeps. He will attack with a kimura from standing position as well to counter takedown attempts. He likes to try to hit switches and take the back to counter takedown attempts as well and was able to do that and take the back of Ian Heinisch. He eventually got an arm triangle from bottom which is not something you see a lot in that match. He does a good job of getting front chokes such as darces & Peruvian neck ties and he has a good squeeze. He can be taken down & he was controlled easily by Eryk Anders. If fighters can pass his guard, he doesn’t have a great get-up game and will just lay on his back. Perez is coming off a nice submission victory. He hurt Hernandez on the feet & then locked up an anaconda. Maluko has 6 career submissions.
Du Plessis is making his UFC debut here and he has never been to a decision in his career. All his wins are by either knockout, guillotine choke, or rear-naked choke. Based on the skills I saw from him those are his only paths to victory here as well. He doesn’t look like a good grappler with a wide skill set, it’s really just those two easy chokes he has. He does have power though, so I think the KO is his better shot here since Perez has some grappling chops himself. I hate the volume from Perez, but he should be the all-around better fighter here and he has never been knocked or choked out, so I have to lean with him as the pick and I really don’t see why he is the underdog.
Du Plessis has a 100% finish rate and I have heard people high on him in this spot, so I think he might go a bit over owned this week. He is a fine play because of his finishing potential, and he will make my player pool. I will just be underweight to him because I think Perez is durable enough to not get knocked out or get choked out here, and if he can do that, I think he is live for the win. This will probably be a close fight pace wise and I think Perez is the better overall striker, just less dangerous. I also think Perez is probably the better grappler of the two. That is why Perez is going to be my preferred play here. More so a GPP play because he does have the lower floor with the finish possibility but not completely against using him in cash if he fits.
Winner – Markus Perez via 3rd round Submission
Ben Rothwell $8,500 vs Marcin Tybura $7,700
Ben Rothwell
Age: 38
Height: 6’4
Weight: 265
Reach: 80”
Gym: Rothwell MMA
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 8-6
Fight Matrix: 25
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -145
Ben Rothwell is making his return to the octagon after a successful outing against Ovince St Preux his last fight. The thirty-eight-year-old veteran is still hanging around in the division & riding a two-fight winning streak. Rothwell is very big, very durable & when he hits people they feel it. Rothwell has a very awkward style. He stands almost square in his stance & due to that is powerful from both sides. He will switch stances as well & his movement is very hard to get a beat on. He likes to keep his hands open & extended and due to his reach; he is able to hand fight & get openings for his shots. He has a pretty nice jab. He will throw nice, straight punches & powerful hooks. He closes the distances with straight punches nicely. He will land nasty right hooks to be body. He will throw the right hook to the body a couple times, and then throw uppercuts to the head. He has very nice uppercuts. He likes to lean towards the right a lot even as he walks forward keeping his head totally off center line. He throws everything into his shots & throws hammers. He will throw heavy low kicks & front kicks to the body. Rothwell has a tricky head kick & has a KO via head kick. Something that will benefit him in this fight is his forward pressure & volume. He will almost undoubtably be the one going forward and throwing more strikes. He has the ability to take ungodly punishment & come back to get the finish. He was getting beat up badly by Overeem before turning the tables with a big KO.
Rothwell is not much of an offensive grappler. He will try to close the distance and get double underhooks. He will get the single collar clinch, & he throws nice uppercuts there. I haven’t seen him get in top position very much lately, but I imagine with his size & power he’d be heavy on top and hit hard. He has very good takedown defense & a super dangerous gogo choke. He is the only fighter to ever submit Josh Barnett, and it’s dangerous to shoot in on Rothwell. Rothwell has six submissions & has been submitted four times himself. His cardio is good for a HW. Rothwell is just very odd to fight. He is extremely durable & moves very awkwardly. He packs power and can knock fighters out. Rothwell will be gunning for another knockout here.
Marcin Tybura
Age: 34
Height: 6’3
Weight: 252
Reach: 78”
Gym: Ankos MMA
From: Poland
UFC Record: 6-5
Fight Matrix: 17
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +125
Marcin Tybura has been looking good lately. He took a step down from fighting contenders and was able to take out two lower tier guys. Tybura has looked good though and returned to his heavy grappling style. This is a huge fight for Tybura if he wants to get back into the top ten where he once was. Tybura is light on his feet, uses a lot of straight punches, straight front kicks to the body and then will throw nice round head kicks. He will switch stances & try to give different looks. He has a decent jab, and a good counter right hook. He will throw almost a leaping straight-left. He will throw a nice uppercut, left hook combo. His head movement isn’t bad, but he tends to hold his hands low. He can get hit clean when he does that and squares up making him even more hittable. Tybura doesn’t control the center well & fighters that pressure him can push him back. He tends to back straight up & doesn’t have good footwork. He will just cover up & move in a straight line making him an easy target to hit. He has been KO/TKO’d four times in his career. He has 7 KO/TKO’s himself.
Tybura is a good grappler. He has strong body lock takedowns and good double legs. He will look to control opponents against the cage as well, but he doesn’t do much from there, and just takes a break. He can be reversed and just have his back stuck against the cage as well. He does have very quick takedown shots, much faster than most heavyweights. He will front a jab or straight & duck under into blast doubles. In his fight with Spivak, he got several well-timed doubles. Tybura has shown good passing skills in the past. He does a great job of getting the mount and taking the back. He doesn’t do a ton of damage from those positions and if I was his coach I’d drill becoming more dangerous in those situations. If he could learn to do damage before looking to sink in subs I think he could get way more finishes. His cardio isn’t bad, but he does slow down & lapses of judgement have cost him fights. Tybura has 6 submissions, but none in the UFC.
This is going to be a slower-paced Heavyweight fight that unfortunately will likely go the distance. This will probably look closer to a sparring match than it will Fight Of The Night, but either guy could land that big punch to get a KO. I think this is going to be a back and forth striking match that goes all 3 rounds that could really go either way. There is no way I would lay the juice on Rothwell in that situation, so this is dog or pass and Tybura is the pick for that reason.
This is dog or pass for me on the betting line but on DraftKings it is more so favorite or pass. Rothwell is the more dangerous and durable fighter, so he is more likely to score the 100+ with a finish here and he probably won’t be too highly owned. I do have a bit of interest there, but we have to have the finish in rounds 1 or 2 for it to pay off. Tybura is playable as a live dog, but I don’t see him getting a finish and if he wins a ~55-point decision it won’t do us any good. This fight is mostly a pass for me, but I will have at least 1 Rothwell lineup out of my 20 and Tybura would be 0-1.
Winner – Marcin Tybura via Split Decision
Edson Barboza $8,800 vs Makwan Amirkhani $7,400
Edson Barboza
Age: 34
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 75”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 14-9
Fight Matrix: 18
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: -260
Edson Barboza was unsuccessful, dropping his third consecutive fight in his FW debut his last time out. The performance was not bad though, as most everyone felt he defeated a top 10 opponent in Dan Ige. The fight was close, and Barboza was on the wrong side of a contested split decision. Barboza is one of the most dangerous strikers in MMA history. He has knockouts with punches, kicks, spinning kicks, flying knees, and can knock fighters out with anything. He needs a win badly here. Barboza is excellent at controlling distance & that will be the tale of this fight. If he can keep it at his range, he will win the fight. He has a very nice jab, and brutal low leg kicks. I anticipate he will use his leg kicks much more in this match to keep distance rather than his jab. Barboza has a nice one-two and a nasty left hook. He will throw a devastating counter left hook to the body or head & angle off. Barboza has nasty switch kicks to the body as well with no telegraph. He probably has the fastest kicks in MMA history. He will throw hard round kicks to the body & head. He has devastating spinning back kicks to the body & head. We have all seen his spinning heel kick knockout of Terry Etim. He is very good at catching kicks & returning with low kicks. He is always looking to set up one of those one shot finishes, and opponents cannot enter the same way against Barboza. He has nasty flying knees. The way to beat Barboza on the feet is through pressure. He is much better at using his boxing to counter, but it’s still the way to beat him. He tends to make mistakes when he gets pressured heavy & has broken in fights before. He will also become much more defensive & not throw as much. He has shown extreme toughness lately and survived brutal beatings. He was able to prove how dangerous he is even after being dominated for 3.5 rounds, almost finishing Kevin Lee in round 4 with a spinning heel kick. Barboza has 12 KO/TKO’s and has been finished by strikes three times. He does seem to have a questionable chin if fighters can land clean on him.
Edson Barboza is a strong grappler, and definitely underrated. If he can make 145 lbs safely he will be massive for the division & a load to take down. In recent years, Barboza has faced some of the best & biggest grapplers in the 155 lb division, and it has skewed people’s perception. If you look at Edson’s UFC career, even including the Khabib & Kevin Lee fights, Edson has 80% takedown defense. In the Khabib & Lee fights he was taken down four times each. In the twenty other fights he’s had in the UFC he’s been taken down just 7 times total. Besides vs Lee or Khabib, Barboza hasn’t been taken down more than once in a fight since 2012. When fighters shoot in on Barboza, they better be careful. If fighters use the same entries on their takedown attempts, Barboza will counter with a knee, just ask Beneil Dariush. If fighters do get Barboza down, he has a strong get-up game & is very hard to finish. Barboza has been submitted just twice in his career. Barboza will even use takedowns for himself from time to time. Barboza was able to double leg Paul Felder & control him in his last match. He has just one submission himself & isn’t a finisher on the ground.
Makwan Amirkhani
Age: 31
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 72”
Gym: SBG Ireland
From: Finland
UFC Record: 6-2
Fight Matrix: 45
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +220
Makwan Amirkhani has been unable to get over the hump in recent years. He tends to run through lower tier competition but falter when given step ups. He is a southpaw. He will use a lot of lateral movement, jabs & right hooks to just maintain distance before finding a takedown. He will throw a jab, left straight combination. He will throw front kicks to the body. When he throws shots, he leaves his chin right up in the air, and I definitely feel Barboza could land a big shot over the top. He will use a lot of explosive action on the feet to close distance, like jumping kicks and flying knees. He had a flying knee KO in less than 10 seconds in his UFC debut. His defense is porous in boxing range. He will hold his hands low, has his chin high & backs up in straight lines. He will also do a lot of reaching to try to get into the clinch or on a leg, & if opponents have good distance control they will make him pay for that. His takedown ability makes opponents hesitant to get close enough to him where he can shoot, and that’s how he survives. Amirkhani tries to goad opponents into a war, so they will get overaggressive & he can take them down as well. He doesn’t look like his punches pack much power, but he can finish with flying knees. Amirkhani just has one career TKO with a flying knee. He was rocked & dropped multiple times in his last match, but showed great recoverability, & has never been finished by strikes.
Makwan Amirkhani is an awesome wrestler. He has an excellent single leg takedown, and even if the initial entry isn’t great, he can stay connected & get it to the mat. He is very good at using the single leg to create a scramble & quickly take the back. He has good double legs as well, but his doubles can be a bit more telegraphed. He does tend to leave his head on the outside on takedown attempts and give opponents his neck. He has very good guillotine defense and will usually get free & have top position. He is excellent in scrambles, and usually will always be able to defend the submission & get top position. On top, he is very heavy & has good control. He has great elbows from half guard, but mainly side control. He is great at standing up in opponent’s guards, landing a punch, and passing the legs into side control. He will land body locks directly into side control. He will look for front chokes & guillotines and has a good rear naked choke. He is active off his back as well. He has a good guard & will attack with triangles & armbars. He is also good at sweeping to top position. Amirkhani is going to need to make this a grappling match. He has 11 submission victories & is crafty on the mat. Amirkhani is definitely the most dangerous in the first round. 11 of his 12 finishes are in the first. After that he slows down significantly.
This will be purely a striker vs grappler matchup. Amirkhani has no shot to beat Edson on the feet other than a lucky KO, so he will be looking for takedowns early and often. If he can get them maybe he can lock up a submission or win two of the rounds with top control. Barboza is hard to take down though and if he is taken down, he will work back to his feet and this will tire Amirkhani out. I think Amirkhani will have some success with takedowns, but I don’t know that he has the cardio for as much wrestling as he will need here so I will take Barboza by late knockout.
I like both sides of this fight a bit more so Amirkhani. If Amirkhani wins, I think he scores well. It would be a grappling heavy fight and possibly a 1st or 2nd round submission. At $7.4k, that can break the slate. I do want exposure to him, but I am picking Barboza to get the win here, so it will limit my exposure a bit. I don’t know how high Barboza’s ceiling is here if he doesn’t get a 1st round finish, so he isn’t a must have guy at all, but I think he does make sense for GPPs and he could get that 1st round KO for 100+. FDGTD is lined at -180 so this is just a fight we probably should target but Amirkhani is more of a lock for the optimal if he finishes.
Winner – Edson Barboza via 3rd round (T)KO
Cory Sandhagen $8,200 vs Marlon Moraes $8,000
Cory Sandhagen
Age: 28
Height: 5’11
Weight: 135
Reach: 70”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 5-1
Fight Matrix: 10
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -140
Cory Sandhagen will be looking to get back on track. He had a misstep in his number one contender’s bout with Aljamain Sterling, being finished quickly via submission. It didn’t set him back too much though. If he can beat Marlon Moraes he will be right back in the mix. Sandhagen is a high-volume striker with solid wrestling skills. Sandhagen averages almost 10 strikes landed per minute, and only absorbs 2.7. He likes to leap into punches, and he can land shots from a long way out. He has a nasty jab and a strong straight-left hand. He is always switching stances and will switch stances mid combination. He likes to throw a jab from southpaw, then change stances & throw a straight-right hand. He uses a lot of feints & false starts to try to hide when he is closing the distance. He will dig to the body with hard hooks, as well as hard low leg kicks. He has a nice check left hook and will throw a left hook to the head and then to the body. He has strong body & head kicks as well and is always throwing volume and keeping the pressure & pace high on opponents. In close range, he does a great job of throwing uppercuts & body shots mixing it up & making it hard to know if the shots are coming to the body or head. He didn’t react well in my opinion to being backed up when he fought Alcantara. He backed up against the cage and allowed Alcantara to land some clean shots before panic wrestling & getting caught in a nasty armbar. In his match with Assuncao, he was able to deal with one of the best pressure fighters in the sport & was walking him down. Sandhagen has solid power with 4 KO/TKO’s. He has been finished once by submission last fight and has only lost one fight via decision.
Cory Sandhagen is a solid wrestler and is strong in the clinch. He does a good job of backing fighters up to the cage when he gets his combinations going. He will throw nasty knees to the head & body from the Muay Thai clinch. He will throw nice standing elbows in the clinch and does a good job of disengaging with spinning elbows & backfists. He has a good single leg takedown, and doubles against the cage. Against Alcantara he showed incredible resolve on the ground. He had his arm fully extended in a deep armbar and refused to tap. He ultimately was able to get out of it and landed some brutal ground & pound before getting the finish in round 2. He was able to stand up in Alcantara’s guard and land nasty straight punches. He does a good job of floating and being able to keep his opponent in a wrestling ride type position when they try to belly down & stand up. He finished Alcantara in that position with heavy shots. He showed incredible scrambling ability against an elite black belt in Raphael Assuncao, sweeping him on more than one occasion. Sandhagen was taken down, back packed and submitted really quickly in his last fight. He didn’t start the match with the type of intensity needed and was ran through. When Sterling took his back, Sandhagen got too preoccupied trying to fight the body lock to escape the position & forgot someone was trying to squeeze on his neck. The mistake proved fatal and he got choked out. Sandhagen can go 3 rounds with ease, get hurt & recover, and overall just has phenomenal cardio. Sandhagen has 2 career submissions.
Marlon Moraes
Age: 32
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 66.5”
Gym: Nick Catone’s MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 5-2
Fight Matrix: 2
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +120
Magic Marlon Moraes bounced back from his title fight loss by the slimmest of margins. He had a great fight with a legend in Jose Aldo and took a split decision victory. The fight was highly disputed & Aldo the loser of the fight, actually got the title shot, because the UFC thought he won. Moraes is still the number one contender in the division & if he can win this fight it will be hard to deny him a title shot. Moraes is a Muay Thai champion & a powerful striker. He has brutal leg kicks & power in his hands. Moraes will throw the occasional jab, but he really likes to throw a left hook, straight-right hand combination. He has a nice right hook to the body, and a good right uppercut, left hook combination. He does a good job of feinting his right hand, getting his opponents to back up & then smashing their lead leg with a low kick. He has very fast body kicks & will throw nice switch kicks to the body. He also has nasty head kicks & does a good job of throwing question mark kicks, hiding the kick behind the left hook. He will throw front kicks to the body & head. He does a good job of attacking the body to later open shots for the head. Three of his last four victories he has dusted his opponent in the first round. He has 10 KO/TKO’s and been finished three times by strikes in his career.
Moraes very rarely will wrestle, but he did attempt a few takedowns in the first fight with Assuncao. He has shown a fairly good double leg & nice timing on it. He got Assuncao down one time but didn’t have any control time. He has great takedown defense, and if fighters do get him down, he is super hard to hold down. Dodson had some success catching Moraes’ kicks & dumping him but couldn’t control him on the mat. Moraes is a black belt as well and is well versed on the mat. Moraes likes to drop opponents, take their backs and submit them. He has 4 rear naked chokes & five submissions overall. He also will attack with leg locks. He did jump on a guillotine against Dodson and got the tap, but it was a second after the bell rang.
I have been saying Sandhagen will be a UFC champion one day and I am sticking to it. I think he is top 3 in this division and I do not think Moraes makes that cut. To me, Sandhagen is better everywhere other than power in this matchup. Moraes is fast and solid everywhere, but he is going to want to keep this on the feet and I think Sandhagen is better there and will be throwing more volume. Sandhagen hasn’t had a 5-round fight yet so that would be my biggest concern here, but if he is going to be the champ, cardio can’t be an issue, so I think he wins a decision here by taking 3 or 4 rounds.
This is an all-in fight for DraftKings and a fine stack in cash fight as well. I always like locking in these close 5-round fights if you think it is good for a floor of 100. It’s hard to see the winner of this fight not being on the optimal lineup as well because of their price tags. If Moraes wins, I think it would likely come in round 1 or round 2 and that is probably 100 or more points. If Sandhagen wins, he can land enough volume to score well over 100 in a decision win and he is also live for a finish himself. My preferred play is going to be Sandhagen because I think he is the better all-around fighter and has more ways to win this fight. He will be a core play for me but any lineup I don’t have him in, Moraes will be there. I also like making my favorite Sandhagen lineups duplicated with Moraes as well so if that lineup has a shot going into the main event, I win either way.
Winner – Cory Sandhagen via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown & be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building & I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend & enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks & predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice & fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: BigMarleyMMA.com
- Bets are on a 1-5u scale with 1u = $100.
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