BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC Fight Island 4 Location – Abu Dhabi
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card back at Fight Island. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $300k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games & look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience & you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player & it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups & 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights, & hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Jessin Ayari $8,200 vs Luigi Vendramini $8,000
Jessin Ayari
Age: 28
Height: 6’0
Weight: 155
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: Hammers Team
From: Germany
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 11 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -120
Jessin Ayari is making his return to the octagon after yet another long layoff. This time he hasn’t fought in about two years. The last time we saw him he was losing a close decision to Stevie Ray. Ayari has a UFC record of 1-2 and really needs a win here. Ayari is a big LW & will have a height advantage in this fight of four inches over Vendramini. Ayari is a striker. He changed his style up a bit in his fight with Ray. In his WW fights, Ayari used a lot of movement, and allowed opponents to control the octagon. At LW he looked huge and came forward trying to be the bully. Ayari has a wide stance with good in & out movement. He throws a quick jab & one-two. Ayari has a nice straight-right hand. He does a good job of leading and pull countering with it. Ayari also has a really nice lead uppercut. He throws it with power and is accurate with it. He likes to follow the uppercut with a left hook. He likes to throw left hook, straight-right combos. Ayari doesn’t throw many kicks. He will throw low kicks, front kicks to the body, and high kicks. Ayari holds his hands low & is hittable himself. His chin is also questionable. Ayari has been dropped a few times in UFC and has been knocked out twice before. He has three knockouts himself.
Jessin Ayari is not a grappler and does not have a takedown attempt in the UFC. Ayari wants to keep it on the feet & strike it out. His takedown defense doesn’t look good. Darren Till was able to take him down a couple times against the cage. Ayari does have a good guillotine and is active off his back with triangles & armbars. Ayari looked very good in the first round of his fight with Ray but slowed down in the second and third. He still pressured a lot but didn’t let as many shots go. Ayari is good in round one with nine finishes in the first. Ayari has eight submissions.
Luigi Vendramini
Age: 24
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: Factory X
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 2 Years
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +100
Luigi Vendramini will be looking for a different result in his second UFC start. His first fight was somewhat a suicide mission. He went in there up a weight class with a beast in Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos and predictably was finished in the second round by TKO. Vendramini will now be dropping back down to 155 lbs where he is undefeated. There is not a lot of footage out there on Vendramini. I was able to find two of his regional fights which were quick finishes, and his UFC debut. Vendramini looks like he is a risk adverse fighter on the feet. He uses lateral movement and will try to walk opponents into lead hooks & overhands. He throws some kicks from the outside. He looks fairly explosive & hits hard. Vendramini isn’t looking to trade on the feet though. He wants to walk opponents into strikes, and takedowns. He is always looking to bring fights to the mat. He was actually faring well against Zaleski, but the finish was brutal. It looked like Vendramini threw a kick, hurt his leg, and then ate a flush flying knee and follow up right hand that knocked him out cold. That is Vendramini’s only loss. He has four KO/TKO’s himself.
Luigi Vendramini looks to mix it up & has good timing on his level changes. Vendramini will time doubles & body locks as opponents pressure him. He will also blitz forward behind a combination & use that to set up his double. Vendramini was able to get in on a body lock, circle to the back and jump on the back of Zaleski from standing. He got pretty deep on a couple rear naked choke attempts, but Zaleski was able to weather the storm. Vendramini has two anaconda choke wins on his record to go with a kimura and rear naked choke. He has finished all his fights and has never seen the judges’ score cards. Vendramini is just 24 years old, so having 1.5 years off should have helped improve his skill set.
Both guys are making their returns after a two-year layoff, and coming off losses, so it is hard to know what we will get from them here. Vendramini looks like the more dangerous striker and grappler, but Ayari is the better point fighter. If this fight ends inside the distance, Vendramini is more likely to get his hand raised. If this fight goes to the judges, then Ayari is probably more likely to win. Personally, I was more impressed with what I saw from Vendramini 2+ years ago and he is the younger fighter by 4 years, so he is more likely to have improved and keep on improving so he is the pick.
Vendramini is my preferred DK play because he has the better chance of being on the $100k lineup. I think he is more likely to get a 1st round finish whether that be a KO or submission, and I do expect him to come out hot. This would be more of a GPP play and I would probably pass on this fight in cash games, but I am not against it in the cash lineup if it fits and you like it. I doubt I play much if any cash this week myself. Ayari is in play as well, I just doubt I get to him with 20 or less lineups and if he wins a decision or a 3rd round finish, I don’t know that it would put him on the optimal.
Winner – Luigi Vendramini via 1st round Submission
Casey Kenney $9,000 vs Heili Alateng $7,200
Casey Kenney
Age: 29
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Rise Combat Sports
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 37
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -325
Casey Kenney is set to make his return five months after his submission victory over Louis Smolka. Kenney has been solid in the UFC at 3-1 and is a sizeable favorite in this matchup. Kenney has some wins that have aged nicely. He holds a decision win over Brandon Royval & a knockout of Vince Cachero in LFA. Kenney is an aggressive, high-volume striker. He also packs power for the division. He is hittable at times & not the greatest athlete. Kenney is good at always going forward & bossing the fight vs most guys. He throws a lot of kicks and stays very busy. Kenney has a good jab, a nice one-two & decent hand speed. When he backs opponents to the cage, he likes to use right hook, left hook combinations. He will finish combos with nice head kicks. Kenney has nice round kicks to the body & head. Kenney will also attack the body with punches, and he’s got a good counter left hook. He will look to grab the Muay Thai plum & throw knees up the middle. He has a recent knee knockout that way. I would say he is the more fluid striker in this matchup, but both guys are predominately grapplers. Kenney likes to walk opponents into straights & kicks and be pretty. Kenney didn’t enjoy getting pushed backwards against Merab & Manny Bermudez and ate some big shots that had him hurt. Kenney is heavy on his lead leg & doesn’t move his head in exchanges. He is hittable and doesn’t have great defense. Smolka was ripping his body in their last match but he did drop Smolka. Kenney isn’t a big knockout threat with just two in his career. He has never been finished.
Casey Kenney is a very strong grappler. Kenney is very strong in the clinch with judo throws & trips. He is a multi-time American judo medalist. He is good at opening up the takedown threat with elbows & knees in the clinch. He also can get big, explosive slam takedowns with singles & doubles. One of his knockouts was a slam knockout. Kenney has nice ground & pound and has good power. His riding ability is elite, and he will just float and keep top position for fifteen or twenty-five minutes. He likes to take the back & was able to get the back of Ray Borg & Bermudez multiple times. Borg was able to scramble out of those positions time & time again, but Borg is one of the best scramblers in the sport. Kenney has been taken down a ton in three UFC fights. He was slammed multiple times against Merab & Borg with doubles. He also had his back taken but is very good at shaking opponents off. Against Bermudez & Merab, it was obvious that the size was a factor, and they were able to get some easy clinch takedowns. Kenney is never static when taken down, and very hard to control. He wins fights by winning scrambles & being the better grappler in most fights. Kenney does have 5 submissions. Kenney has slowed down in round three of both of his UFC fights. He is fighting out of his weight class & eventually that will catch up to him.
Heili Alateng
Age: 28
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 66.5”
Gym: Team Alateng
From: China
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 136
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +265
Heili Alateng has started his UFC career strong. He is undefeated at 2-0 with two decision victories. He has some high-level experience outside the UFC as well. Alateng is another prospect out of China. Alateng is an underrated fighter in my opinion. He is a dog on the feet. His defense isn’t good, but he’s a plus athlete with power in his shots. Alateng has some sharp punching combinations. He has a really nice one-two. His straight-right hand is powerful, very fast and clean. He will throw really nice counter overhand rights & hooks. Alateng’s right hand is a big weapon. Alateng has some really nice kicks as well. He throws fast, powerful low kicks. He has nice rear leg round kicks to the body & head. Alateng has great cardio & keeps a high pace as well. His defense on the feet is very bad, but he has a block head and can take a lot of punishment. He ate some huge shots against Ryan Benoit who is a heavy hitter. Alateng has been knocked out three times in his career, though. Alateng has four knockouts of his own.
Heili Alateng is a strong wrestler and can grapple too. He has really good takedowns in the clinch & strong timing on his double legs. Alateng was able to win the third round of his first two UFC fights by changing it up and grappling. Alateng doesn’t have the best top control, but he will continue to get mat returns or takedowns throughout the round. Alateng will need to counter wrestle and be able to scramble in this fight. I do feel he has better cardio.
Kenney is the pick here and he should be the better fighter anywhere this fight goes. He is the better striker of the two and he should be the one landing more volume. Alateng is going to look for takedowns a lot in this match but Kenney should be the better wrestler and grappler as well, so it’s hard to see Alateng having much success there and Kenney would likely get back to his feet instead of Alateng submitting him. This is a favorite or pass fight for me and Kenney is a solid parlay piece.
This is probably Kenney or pass for me with 20 lineups or less. Alateng is in play but I would need to build more than 20 lineups to get there myself and I don’t see him scoring highly unless he gets a KO, which I doubt happens. Kenney can win this fight any way and this could include a decent amount of scrambles and grappling. He is one going to be one of my higher owned plays on the card, but not quite a core play I would say. I think he is solid in cash games as well as 3 entry max and Single Entry GPPs.
Winner – Casey Kenney via Unanimous Decision
Loma Lookboonmee $8,500 vs Jinh Yu Frey $7,700
Loma Lookboonmee
Age: 24
Height: 5’1
Weight: 115
Reach: 62”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: Thailand
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -150
Loma Lookboonmee is back in the octagon. She is hungry for a win here after a loss to Angela Hill her last time out. Hill was a tough ask for a girl with five fights experience, and she fared well. Lookboonmee looked good & is an underrated player in this division. Lookboonmee has just six MMA fights, but is no rookie though, she has been fighting in Muay Thai since she was a small child & is very cool, calm & collected in a fight. You never have to worry about her performing, if she loses her opponent will have to take it from her. Lookboonmee is a traditional Muay Thai striker on the feet. At range, she can start slow, and needs to change her style a bit. She is still pretty flat footed & can be low volume. Lookboonmee has very nice feints, and sharp, straight punches and kicks. Her front kick to the body & head comes fast & hard. She will throw nice round kicks to the body & head as well. Her body kicks can be caught at times, but she will punch on one leg, and has good balance. She has nasty low kicks inside & outside. Lookboonmee is extremely calm & as the fight progresses gets more and more loose & harder to hit. When she does get hit, she rolls with a lot of shots & is hard to hit flush. Lookboonmee doesn’t have one punch power in her hands and isn’t really looking to knock opponents out from range. If she kicks an opponent in the head, she can knock them out though. Lookboonmee has just one career TKO in MMA.
Loma Lookboonmee is an assassin in the clinch & that’s where she lives. When opponents try to take her down, you can see how truly heavy her hips are, and her framing game is top notch. She will break opponents posture & throw brutal knees in succession to the body, and big elbows. She is mean & ruthless with the knees, really trying to finish the fight. Lookboonmee also has some incredible foot sweeps and throws. Even though she was much smaller than Albu, she absolutely dominated her in the clinch in her UFC debut. Lookboonmee will get nice body lock takedowns as well and has shown a decent top game against poor competition. She also has good timing on her shots. She will move to mount & that’s where she earned her one TKO victory. In scrambles she has shown some bad stuff. She leaves her arms out there to get submitted and allows opponents to move to dominant position if they win the scramble. I do feel overall Lookboonmee is a good grappler, and will improve, but can be caught. Her cardio & composure is top notch & she will always come to fight.
Jinh Yu Frey
Age: 35
Height: 5’3
Weight: 115
Reach: 65”
Gym: Genesis BJJ
From: Texas
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 44
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +130
Jinh Yu Frey’s long-awaited UFC debut didn’t go exactly as planned. She started very strong but slowed down and ultimately was submitted in the third round. The longtime atom weight will get a favorable matchup in terms of size here in Loma Lookboonmee. Lookboonmee may be one of the only girls who is smaller than Frey in the UFC. Frey is 35 years old, and definitely came to the UFC too late, but still has time to potentially collect some wins. Frey is a plus athlete with well-rounded skills. Frey has solid striking. She is southpaw. She has a solid jab, heavy inside and outside low kicks. She has a good straight-left, right hook combination. Her straight-left hand is the punch she is always looking for. She has a good overhand left. She will throw some to the body & head combinations. Frey has some power in her hands. Frey will throw some body & head kicks. Frey can be low volume & robotic. She will throw very predictable hooks at times that get her countered. Frey can also get her legs ate up as well but is tough. She has been stopped by strikes once before. She was knocked out pretty badly by Seo Hee Ham. Frey only has one career KO.
Jinh Yu Frey is a good grappler. In the clinch, Frey is very aggressive. Frey will throw hard punches in combination in the clinch, has nice knees & elbows. Frey is good at pulling fighters into double legs. She is pretty physical in the clinch & will look for trips. On top, Frey is more about control than submission. She does have a couple rear naked choke wins. Frey has good riding ability & can grind out wins. Frey hasn’t been super active with her wrestling in recent fights. She is a decision fighter usually though & hasn’t finished a fight since 2014. Frey has five round cardio & the veteran experience here. Frey’s grappling defense is not the best. She can be taken down and was dominated on top in her last fight against Kay Hansen. She was controlled and couldn’t stand up in round two, and then submitted quickly in the third.
This should be a fairly high-level striking match. Frey is the more experienced fighter with a small height and reach advantage here but Lookboonmee is 11 years younger and might be a decent prospect. Lookboonmee should be the one with more output on the feet and she is also more likely to look for takedowns. We probably see the full 15-minutes here and my pick is for Lookboonmee to win at least two of those three rounds.
This is a fight that won’t start any of my lineups but could end up as the 6th spot based on how much salary I have left. I think most of this fight will take place at range and I don’t see either of these fighters being high owned, which Fight Metric happens to love scoring higher for. I could see either of these women scoring over 10x in a win and I think it goes all 3-rounds so I also think they are both cash viable as well. I would say Frey is my preferred play because I think it would be more likely I only have enough salary for her as my 6th spot, but I don’t have a strong lean either way and I would think they make 10-15% of my lineups each.
Winner – Loma Lookboonmee via Unanimous Decision
Jordan Williams $8,700 vs Nassourdine Imavov $7,500
Jordan Williams
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 76.5”
Gym: Nor-Cal Fighting Alliance
From: California
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 191
Last Fought: 2 Weeks
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -140
Jordan Williams is getting right back in the cage after a victory on the contender series a couple weeks ago. Williams got a quick first round knockout in that fight & looked good. He is a 29-year-old prospect with a 9-3 record and is a solid fighter. He isn’t the most skilled fighter, but he’s well rounded and super tough. Williams has a great chin & is willing to eat a lot of punishment to land a few of his own. Williams is a southpaw, he’s pretty athletic and heavy handed. He has a great jab. He will double jab into range for his straight & hooks. He throws a lot of lead right hooks. He will throw the jab or lead hook to an overhand left combination. He isn’t the most skilled fighter but he’s a dog, a brawler and can put opponents to sleep. He showed that once again landing some nasty straight punches until he got his opponent against the fence. Williams’ defense is not good, so he has been put down twice. He is improving his head movement and has kind of a Mike Tyson style. He has seven knockouts himself.
Jordan Williams is a pretty good grappler as well. He has good takedowns. He likes to shoot doubles and does a good job of blitzing his opponents to back them up to the cage. On top, he likes to get mount and does damage. When he fought Tim Caron, he showed improved top control. He was able to get posture from half guard & rain down big elbows. He has big ground & pound from inside opponent’s guards also. He isn’t the most dangerous with his top game, but he will threaten the neck & his ground & pound is solid. He has a rear naked choke submission, but that’s it. His takedown defense is solid, and I doubt he will have to worry about that in this fight. He has never been submitted. Williams has solid cardio and can go.
Nassourdine Imavov
Age: 24
Height: 6’3
Weight: 185
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: MMA Factory
From: France
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 168
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: +120
Nassourdine Imavov will be making his UFC debut as well. It’s funny because Imavov was actually supposed to be the one to fight Gregory Rodrigues on the contender series, but he pulled out and Williams replaced him. Now Imavov is getting to bypass the contender series & just fight Williams in the UFC. Imavov’s nickname is the Russian Sniper. He was born in Dagestan, but trains in France & is a striker. There isn’t a lot of footage on Imavov, but he is tall, rangy, fast and like his nickname says, a sniper. Imavov will look to land pull counters and straights down the pipe. He’s super-fast and throws very sharp punches. He’s light on his feet and his in & out movement is very good. He cuts angles well and does a good job of not getting backed to the cage. Imavov has solid head movement also. He does hold his hands low though and has to be weary of the power of Williams on the inside. Imavov is really good at controlling distance & countering with the check hook. He likes to come forward, probe with the jab, throw nice feints and maybe some kicks to the body. When fighters throw at him, he is instantly slipping and returning with counters. He’s very fast & sharp. When he hurts fighters, he goes for the kill and his finish over UFC veteran Jonathan Meunier in his last fight was nasty. When Imavov gets his opponent against the fence, he will unload with combinations to the body & head & has some good pop. He has three career KO/TKO’s in his eight wins. Imavov has never been finished by strikes.
Nassourdine Imavov is from Dagestan, but not an offensive grappler. In the clinch he does have some nasty knees and elbows. His defensive wrestling in the clinch looks strong. He will dig underhooks, circle off the cage, land a strike and disengage. Imavov did a good job of getting right back up against Meunier after he was taken down with a well-timed shot. I haven’t been able to see a lot of Imavov’s fights, but he does have a few submissions. Being from Dagestan I’m sure he can wrestle and grapple at least a little bit. He has lost a fight via guillotine, but he has four submissions himself. Imavov has seven finishes all in round one where he is the most dangerous. We still have to see how his cardio holds up in tough fights. He is only 1-1 in decisions.
This is one of my favorite fights on the card and it is my pick for Fight of the Night. Imavov looks like the more technical striker and the more dangerous grappler. Williams looks like the more powerful striker with more volume and better wrestling. This will probably be a good fight but Imavov looked like the more talented prospect of the two so at these odds it is dog or pass for me and I think he could win this fight by KO, sub, or a close decision.
This is going to be one of my highest owned fights on the card and Imavov is my preferred play of the two. I think he is playable in all formats and he is an underdog that could score 100+ and break the slate. I will be overweight to him and he is cheap enough to be worth the shot in cash games as well IMO. Williams would be a GPP only play for me, but he has 100+ upside as well and I wouldn’t hate being overweight to him as well. We have a line of -180 that this fight ends ITD which is the 3rd highest on the card and this is my favorite fight to use both sides of, meaning I would be cool using Imavov in 2 of my 3 lineups and Williams in the other if only doing 3 Entry Max contests.
Winner – Nassourdine Imavov via 1st round (T)KO
Charles Jourdain $9,300 vs Josh Culibao $6,900
Charles Jourdain
Age: 24
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 69”
Gym: Academie Pro Star MMA
From: Canada
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 60
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -440
Charles Jourdain is a young, athletic, flashy striker who has a lot of room to grow and get better. At 24-years-old we should see him improving every time out. Jourdain is a very good, athletic, range striker. He has heavy low kicks. Jourdain has a decent jab, but his lunging straight-right hand is very nice. He will throw a nice right hook to the body to a right hook to the head. He will also throw a right hook to the body to a left hook to the head, or a right hook to the body to a head kick. He has a decent overhand right. He will mix spinning backfists into his combinations & is very fast closing the distance. He has good flying knees. He will definitely push the pace & try to wear opponents down with body shots. He is tough & doesn’t break and will continue to look for the finish until the last minute of the fight. He showed his progression and how dangerous he can be in his last fight almost finishing tough veteran Andre Fili. He has good power & 7 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Charles Jourdain has improved his grappling immensely. A couple years ago he was getting taken down & held down for five consecutive rounds in a title fight. In 2019 he is stuffing multiple takedowns, and constantly standing up from bottom against a D-1 wrestler. The fight with Desmond Green was also up a weight class at 155 lbs. Jourdain has shown poor takedown defense against double & single legs. He looks to be constantly working on his grappling but doesn’t use it offensively yet. He does have good front chokes he will use to counter takedown attempts. He has 3 career submissions & has never been finished. Jourdain showed great ferocity & cardio in his fights, always attacking hard until the final bell.
Joshua Culibao
Age: 26
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 73”
Gym: Australian Top Team
From: Australia.
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 299
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +350
Joshua Culibao is a fast, technical striker with good footwork & movement. He likes to dart in & out with sharp shots. Culibao will throw a very nice jab & nasty low kicks. He has a nice left hook. He will throw very tight combinations inside. He has nice straight punches & good hook combinations. Culibao will mix high kicks into his combos & gives a lot of different looks by switching stances, faking & feinting. He landed a nasty combination of uppercuts that he finished his last win with. I haven’t seen Culibao hit much in fights other than his debut and didn’t show much toughness in that fight. The power was just different up a weight class and he couldn’t hurt Turner. Culibao has 5 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Joshua Culibao will mix it up & has solid timing on takedowns. He hit a nice single leg in his last match but wasn’t really able to control on top. I have seen him take mount in a fight & land ground & pound until the fight was stopped. I haven’t seen much of Culibao off his back or defending takedowns. He did get dominated on the mat against Turner and finished with ground & pound, but he was already hurt previously. He is really kind of an enigma as it’s hard to really gauge how good he is.
Culibao got dominated in his UFC debut and now he is almost a 4-1 underdog in another spot where he could get dominated again. Jourdain is a solid striker and is dangerous on the feet. This should be the fight that he wants, and he shouldn’t have to worry about takedowns as much in this fight. I would expect Culibao to look better than he did in his last fight, but this is a tough task here and he probably gets finished along the way.
Jourdain is going to be a core play for me this week. I think he puts Culibao away at some point and it could be in round 1 with 100-120 points. He is probably my favorite play on the slate, and I like him in all formats. Culibao would be a hedge type of guy where he makes maybe 1-2 of my lineups because I am so high on Jourdain, but I am fine with a full fade on him as well.
Winner – Charles Jourdain via 1st round (T)KO
Court McGee $8,300 vs Carlos Condit $7,900
Court McGee
Age: 35
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: The Pit Elevated Fight Team
From: Utah
UFC Record: 8-8
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -135
Court McGee will get to add fighting on fight island to his list of UFC accolades. The OG TUF veteran is getting a big fight as well, as he gets to take on the former champ Carlos Condit. McGee is at the end of his career, and has lost 4 out of 5 fights, but is still competitive. McGee is a pressure fighter with well-rounded skills. He keeps a high pace, mixing takedowns with a lot of volume of the feet. McGee throws a lot of jabs & one-twos. He will throw a jab, left hook combination. He will attack the body with jabs & one-twos. He has strong leg & body kicks. He will throw front kicks to the body as well. He can throw the kicks with both legs. He likes to slip & rip in the pocket and has solid head movement. He will slip the jab & throw a left hook. He will slip & throw a straight-right hand as well. He likes to close the distance and get in the single collar clinch and throw short uppercuts. He isn’t the fastest guy, but his volume and forward pressure wear on fighters as time goes on. McGee has a sick chin and will eat shots and stay right in the pocket and continue to move forward. He has only been finished one time in his entire career. He doesn’t possess big power with only 3 TKO’s himself.
Court McGee is a good grappler. McGee has good timing on his double legs. He will get in on the legs, push opponents to the cage & work from there. He does a good job of changing his grip to a tight waist & trying to circle to the back. He is very good at finishing takedowns against the cage, especially as the fight goes on. He likes to land short knees to the body and shots to the head in the clinch, and he will mix in doubles and singles as well. He isn’t the most efficient wrestler early on, but he gets a takedown in round 3 in a majority of fights, and when he is on top he has nice ground and pound and likes to punch and pass to better positions. He has no problem staying in an opponent’s guard and beating them up with elbows and punches as well. McGee isn’t a big finisher & prefers to control & win the fight on the cards. McGee was denied by Sean Brady & Dhiego Lima on all his takedown attempts. McGee has good takedown defense & is hard to hold down. McGee can be controlled a bit in the clinch but will attempt nice throws & reversals to get top position. He can give his back when he does this, but he’s very good at defending the back takes & getting back to his feet. McGee will look for front chokes to defend takedowns. His takedown defense is excellent & he’s very hard to hold down. McGee’s cardio is his biggest weapon. The guy doesn’t get tired & will continue to come forward and push a pace for 15 or 25 minutes. McGee has 7 submissions, but just two UFC finishes in his first two UFC fights. McGee hasn’t had a finish in his last 14 matches, and only has been finished one time. He is a tough out for anyone & usually fights close.
Carlos Condit
Age: 36
Height: 6’2
Weight: 170
Reach: 76”
Gym: Jackson Wink MMA
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 7-9
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 9 Months
Last Five: 0-5
Current Streak: L5
Betting Odds: +115
Carlos Condit is still looking for that elusive victory. He has lost five consecutive fights and hasn’t won in over five years. It’s hard to see the former champion fall so far, but that’s MMA for you. This will be a significant step down in competition from who he has been fighting, and a proper matchup. Both fighters are near the end of their careers but are tough veterans with name value and have earned the respect of the fans. Condit in his prime is a whirling dervish on the feet. He throws combinations to all parts of the body and throws all his limbs. Condit throws a lot of combinations ending with high kicks. Condit will close the distance with big hooks. He attacks the body effectively. He throws nice front & low kicks. He has nasty knees and elbows on the inside. Condit had 15 knockouts and is a finisher. His strikes haven’t looked like they’ve had as much power in recent fights. Condit’s chin has also gotten bad & he can’t take a lot of punishment anymore.
Carlos Condit has always struggled with grapplers. He doesn’t have great takedown defense & has been submitted in a lot of recent fights. Condit does have good Jiu-Jitsu and scrambling. He has nice leg locks and will look for armbars and triangles. On top, he is nasty and has big power with ground & pound. Condit has 13 submissions in his career. He has been submitted 3 times in his last four fights. Condit’s heart has to be in question here, and his cardio as well.
This would have been a fun fight to see 10 years ago. Now, these guys are towards the end of their careers with Condit being 0-5 and McGee being 1-4 in their last 5 fights. I do think if we saw this fight years ago that Condit would be a big favorite and probably over 2-1 in their primes. We really have no idea what we are getting with these two now but there is no way I would want to lay juice on either of these two guys. I also think this fight should mainly stay on the feet and Condit is the better striker of the two in my opinion. McGee can mix in takedowns or win on volume, but Condit is the pick here in a close 15-minute striking battle.
I think this one might be a bit more popular than it should be just because of their names. That makes me like it a bit less, but Condit is my preferred play and a guy I will make sure I get exposure to. I think Condit is in play in all formats here, I just worry about his ceiling. He is one of the underdogs I like to win though so I might end up overweight to him for that reason, I just could also see him scoring 60-points in a decision win. Usually when he wins, he finishes, so that is why I will force exposure to him, but I won’t force being overweight. McGee is probably a guy I fade with 20 or less lineups because he is a favorite and I would rather target other favorites with higher ceilings that I think win. McGee should look to land takedowns here which could get him to a high score, it is just hard seeing him land them consistently to really rack up takedown points. I won’t talk you off McGee, I just doubt he makes my pool this week.
Winner – Carlos Condit via Split Decision
Dusko Todorovic $9,100 vs Daquan Townsend $7,100
Dusko Todorovic
Age: 26
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: Secutor MMA
From: Serbia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 60
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W9
Betting Odds: -330
Dusko Todorovic will be making his UFC debut as an undefeated 9-0 prospect. Todorovic has a win on the contender series & also finished Michel Pereira in 2018. Todorovic is a well-rounded fighter. On the feet, Todorovic is a good mover. He has a nice jab. Todorovic has good head movement, slips and rips well but his hands down style is dangerous. He will double jab his way into hooks and overhands. He has nice kicks with both legs and can fight from both stances. Todorovic’s striking is not what he needs to use here though. Against Townsend, the leaning back & how hittable he is on the feet, could get him knocked out. Todorovic struggled in his last match when he got backed up. He ate some big shots with his back against the cage.
Dusko Todorovic needs to have a similar game plan to the one he had last fight. He did a good job of using his strikes to get in the clinch & control his opponent against the cage. He had good head positioning, ripped the body and went up top with elbows & was chain wrestling. His wrestling isn’t the best though, and he wasn’t able to take his last opponent down. I feel like against Townsend if he does get that positioning against the fence and work him a bit, the takedowns will come. In top position, Todorovic has pretty good passing ability, and is aggressive with ground and pound. He will work opponents over until they give up the submission. Todorovic has 3 submissions. He has never been submitted and doubt he will be in this spot. His cardio is solid overall.
Dequan Townsend
Age: 34
Height: 6’3
Weight: 185
Reach: 79”
Gym: Murcielago MMA
From: Michigan
UFC Record: 0-3
Fight Matrix: 195
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: +270
Dequan Townsend is 0-3 in the UFC and needs a win to save his job here. He has been awful in his three UFC fights & dominated in every round of his UFC career. Townsend is a big, athletic guy with knockout power. He throws heavy low kicks which I feel he needs to use in this match. Townsend has a long reach & will throw decent jabs & straight punches. Townsend has power, and when he lands he will come forward with straights & hook punch combinations. He closes distance pretty quickly, but also recklessly. Townsend will wing overhands that are dangerous. Townsend likes to pull counter & is comfortable using head movement to evade punches. Townsend has a dangerous high kick that he has knocked opponents out with. He has nice flying knees, jumping kicks & punches. Townsend is very durable & hard to finish. However, his defense is not very good. He will back up in straight lines and doesn’t control the center well at all. His footwork moving backwards can be very awkward. Townsend got knocked out with a straight punch combination leaning back while being too close to the cage. Townsend still has only been KO’d one time in his career which was his last match. Townsend is still dangerous with 12 career KO/TKO’s.
Dequan Townsend’s grappling is very low level. His takedown defense is very questionable & he has little to no Jiu-Jitsu. He backs himself to the cage where he’s easy to get in on. He also can close distance very recklessly & give up easy takedowns. He did show improved defense vs Lewis but was just held against the cage & couldn’t get off. Townsend does have a solid guillotine he uses to counter takedowns. When fighters get Townsend on his back, his guard is easy to pass. Fighters can move to side control & mount easily. Townsend will stay relaxed & isn’t the easiest fighter to submit. Townsend has been submitted just one time via heel hook. Townsend relies on explosion to just time a moment to sweep or stand up. Townsend has swept & taken the back of low level opponents on the regional scene but doesn’t have good control. Townsend has just three career submissions.
Todorovic is making his UFC debut here and the UFC set him up with a winnable fight. Townsend has looked pretty bad so far in his 0-3 UFC stint, and to me, it looks like the want to set up Todorovic with a win before they give Townsend the pink slip. Todorovic is the better striker of the two and this fight should be one that mainly stays standing. However, Todorovic looks to be a little too hittable and Townsend does have KO power. Townsend is also the more experienced fighter of the two and he has to fight like his job is on the line. It wouldn’t shock me to see him get the knockout upset here, but Todorovic is the pick assuming that doesn’t happen.
I feel like Todorovic could be one of the highest owned guys and that makes me like him less here. I like this fight as a whole but less so because of his ownership. We have a -145 FDGTD line so we probably need to target this fight, but if it goes to a decision, I don’t see Todorovic on the optimal. I will mix in exposure to him with the other top priced guys, but he is probably my least favorite play $8.7k and up. All the fighters in that range are where I want to be if going over $8k though so I probably get exposure to them all and go more stars and scrubs this week. Townsend is a guy I could see winning the $100k with a KO here. He will be low owned and maybe 185 is the weight class he should have been in. He does have power, so I could see him getting an early finish and breaking the slate, but I won’t invest much in that possible outcome. He will make at least 1-2 of my 20 or less lineups though.
Winner – Dusko Todorovic via Unanimous Decision
Kyler Phillips $9,200 vs Cameron Else $7,000
Kyler Phillips
Age: 25
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 75
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -470
Kyler Phillips looked great in his UFC debut. He entered an underdog but dominated Gabriel Silva in all facets of the game. Phillips was scheduled to fight Dana Batgerel here, but Batgerel withdrew and now he’s taking on a UFC newcomer. Phillips is a very dangerous guy early in round one. He is very fast, technical & explosive. He can finish the fight on the feet or on the ground and has all his finishes in round one. As the fight goes on Phillips slows down & isn’t nearly as dangerous. Early in round one he is light on his feet with great movement. Phillips has a nice lead hand that is very fast & sharp. He will throw some decent one-twos & if forced to brawl can let go with hooks & uppercuts. On the contender series, he landed a nasty, tight left hook that hurt his opponent & finished him with shots on the mat. The best part of his stand-up game is kicking. He has very nice low kicks. He will throw round kicks to the body & head. He will throw very nice spinning kicks & question mark kicks. In his last match, he landed a spinning back kick to the body and then a question mark kick to the head that knocked his opponent clean out. Phillips has 3 KO/TKO’s.
Kyler Phillips is well rounded & a solid grappler. He is good at getting to the clinch & working takedowns along with taking the back. He is always looking to take the back in grappling situations. Phillips doesn’t seem the best at sticking the submission when he’s in the back-mount position though. Phillips isn’t bad at chain wrestling against the cage. He will take mount & land nice shots. In his match with Victor Henry, he won the grappling exchanges early, but gassed out and was beaten by being stuck on bottom. He also won the grappling exchanges vs Gabriel Silva. Phillips isn’t the greatest when dealing with forward pressure & his cardio isn’t very good. He can get sloppy in grappling exchanges as the fight goes on. Phillips has a lot of potential & is a finisher. He only has one calf slicer submission in his career. Both of his losses have come via split decision. Phillips is still young & a good prospect.
Cameron Else
Age: 29
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: N/A
Gym: BMF Ranch
From: England
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 157
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: +375
Cameron Else is getting the call on short notice here. He is riding a six-fight winning streak, but against very low-level competition. Else is a wild man. He comes out extremely aggressive & goes for the kill early. All of Else’s finishes are in the first round. He has six finishes in under sixty seconds. Else will run to the center and start winging bombs and kicks as soon as the fight starts. He holds his hands completely down at his waist, has no care in the world for defense and just wants to hurt his opponent. His striking really is pretty awful. He likes the lead hook and throws a lot of leg and body kicks. Else will throw wild spinning attacks and jump knees as well. Else has a good chin & is tough but gets hit too flush. He’s been finished by strikes twice. Else has six knockouts of his own.
Cameron Else is a grappler. He wants to use his striking to close the distance & get the fight to the ground. Else really isn’t a very technical wrestler either. He looks to be physical in the clinch. He has some nice throws he will hit. He will use sacrifice throws and do anything he can to create scrambles. On top, Else is super aggressive. He has a really good front head lock series. His guillotines, anacondas, and darces are ruthless. He will take the back, flatten opponents out and smash them. Else’s defensive grappling is not good. He can be taken down, and he gives his back to stand up. I have seen him finished with strikes in the clinch also. Else is still a killer and dangerous fighter. If fighters start slow against this guy, he will take them out. Else has four submission wins. He has been to the score cards just one time where he lost. Else is a crazy guy though & can’t be underestimated. He truly has the kill or be killed mentality. Else joined the Army in his country and said the reason he did it is because he wanted to feel what it was like to kill somebody. He has a fearless mentality, and that can’t be overlooked.
Phillips looked amazing in his UFC debut and it shows with this betting line. This is going to be Else’s UFC debut and it is by far his toughest test to date. Else looks aggressive and he does have knockout power and OK offensive grappling. Phillips just looks like he is better, faster, and more dangerous everywhere. Else is going to need a big knockout shot or a quick choke to pull off this win and that is too tough of a task for me to pick.
This fight is tied for the highest FDGTD line at -270. This is a good fight to target and it should be high paced as well. Phillips is my 2nd favorite play behind Jourdain though so I want one of those two in almost every lineup I build unless I just can’t afford it. With my stars/scrubs approach I think I will be able to get at least one of them though. Else is in play as well and I don’t see him having much ownership. I doubt he makes more than 1-2 of my lineups though and he is GPP only.
Winner – Kyler Phillips via 2nd round (T)KO
Germaine de Randamie $8,600 vs Julianna Pena $7,600
Germaine de Randamie
Age: 36
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Team De Randamie
From: Netherlands
UFC Record: 6-2
Fight Matrix: 2
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -140
Germaine de Randamie is returning looking for a better result after her failed bid at the UFC title. The former champion was looking to become a champion in two divisions but fell short against Amanda Nunes dropping a decision. De Randamie is a tall and long fighter, who does a great job of using her reach on the feet. She has very nice leg kicks both to the inside and outside. She will really chop down with power on her leg kicks after a jab or left hook. De Randamie has a nice jab and a very nice one-two. She has good in and out movement and is always trying to pull fighters into her power. She has a really nice uppercut and overhand right and is one of the more powerful strikers in the division. She has nasty front kicks to the body, and she will fire them to the head also. She does a good job of sneaking tricky high kicks into combinations, and when they land they have big power. She is very good defensively and keeps a high guard and is always gauging distance. She has big power and has finished 4 of her 8 wins via KO/TKO. She has never been finished with strikes on the feet, her one TKO loss to Nunes was on the ground.
De Randamie is nasty in the clinch, and one of the better clinch fighters in the division. She has nasty knees to the body, and her head position is always right so she is able to muscle girls around in the clinch. She has a nasty Muay Thai plum and will land hard knees to the body and head, as well as short elbows. She will use this position to defend takedowns, do damage, and it makes fighters nervous to close the distance on her. She has never attempted a takedown in the UFC, and I doubt she goes for one here. De Randamie has only been taken down by one women in the UFC, Amanda Nunes. She was taken down and dominated in her 1st fight. she couldn’t get-up off her back. She needs to be able to keep this fight standing, and she will have a great chance to win. She will most likely be in trouble if she is taken down in this matchup.
Julianna Pena
Age: 31
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: Sikjitsu
From: Washington
UFC Record: 5-1
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +120
Julianna Pena is returning after yet another long layoff. She returned after a pregnancy and two years off to defeat Nicco Montano last year. She once again has taken over a year away from the cage before this fight. She is getting a huge opportunity fighting a top contender. Pena is not going to try to compete with De Randamie on the feet. She is going to try to walk De Randamie down, and feint her way in. Pena has her hands high when she comes forward and throws a lot of one-twos & head kicks to get inside. She will throw hooks on the inside but gets wild and wide with her hands. Her pressure and aggressiveness make opponents have to respect her on the feet though and she can usually get inside.
Julianna Pena is a very good wrestler/grappler. She has made a living using her grappling to win fights. Pena is super physical and tenacious. She will use her striking to back fighters to the cage & maul them in the clinch. She has good clinch takedowns and stays active with knees and short punches. Pena does a good job of making opponents fight her fight. Just about all her UFC fights have been grappling heavy. Even in her matchup with Valentina Shevchenko, you could argue she was out grappled, but she made it her fight. Pena can be taken down but is solid off her back. She is a good scrambler, never accepts bottom position and will attack with submissions. She had a good bite on the arm of Shevchenko late in the first round of their fight. Pena is a pressure fighter in top position. She likes to rain down nice elbows & forearms from inside opponent’s guards. She will pressure pass to side control where she likes to work. She will look for the crucifix position and take the back if given the opportunity. She has good back takes & control. She will flatten opponents out & finish with ground & pound. She has three rear naked choke victories. Her ground & pound comes early & often, and she is relentless. She has 3 TKO’s all via ground & pound. Pena is good at staying heavy on the neck, keeping opponents down & hunting chokes. She was able to out grind the grinder in Montano in her last fight, but that match was very competitive.
This will be purely a striker vs grappler matchup. Randamie should be able to dominate the striking and possibly get a knockout, while Pena should be able to dominate the grappling and possibly get a submission. Randamie’s edge on the feet is a bigger edge though because she might be the best woman’s striker in the UFC and Pena really has nothing for her there. Randamie can stuff takedowns and work back to her feet so I think this will be on the feet longer than Pena would like and she might get put away if she gets worn out constantly going for takedowns. For that reason, Randamie is the pick but she could spend most of the fight on her back and lose a decision so not a lot of confidence here, but she should be the favorite in my opinion.
Pena is the preferred DraftKings play here because I think she would be the only one who can get 10x in a decision. She could get a sub and score high, and GDR could get a TKO and score highly, but if this goes all 3-rounds I don’t see how GDR scores well. If Pena wins a decision, it will mean she won at least two rounds with her grappling and maybe she racks up takedown and advance points in doing that. However, since I am picking GDR to win, I probably just won’t end up with much of this fight at all, with GDR being closer to a fade on DK.
Winner – Germaine de Randamie via Unanimous Decision
Yorgan De Castro $8,900 vs Carlos Felipe $7,300
Yorgan De Castro
Age: 32
Height: 6’0
Weight: 262
Reach: 74”
Gym: Regiment Training Center
From: Cape Verde
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 174
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -240
Yes, the co-main event is a 1-1 HW vs a 0-1 HW, it is what it is. Yorgan de Castro is the fighter with a UFC win, and performed well early against Greg Hardy. Yorgan is 32 with a 6-1 record coming off the first loss of his career. De Castro is a beast athlete for his size. He moves well and has vicious power to go along with some of the better leg kicks in the division. Castro is very fast, light on his feet and has good movement. He likes to walk opponents into hooks and has heavy low kicks. In his fight on the DWCS, he ended it with a nasty low kick. He can go to the well too much on them and get countered. De Castro has a powerful right hook and straight. He likes to walk opponents into overhand right, left hook combinations. In his last match, he caught his opponent as he was coming in with a perfect right hook and slept him. He definitely has one punch power. De Castro has a pretty nice switch kick to the body and head. He will look for flying knees. He’s a very athletic guy for his size. In some of his fights though I just am not impressed with his defense or fight IQ. He will load up on shots and get countered. He doesn’t defend kicks well, and also can clinch or throw low kicks after hurting his opponent. In his fight with Ras Hylton, I didn’t like how he looked at all. De Castro has finished 4 of his five wins by KO/TKO.
Yorgan De Castro is not a grappler, but he will look to close the distance and clinch against the cage. He doesn’t have great technique or control there & I wouldn’t advise that in this fight. De Castro showed good distance control when he fought Alton Meeks. He was able to move, land, and came close to landing some flying knees when Meeks entered on takedowns. He was taken down a couple times but showed good get-ups against the cage. This was an improvement from previous fights where he was controlled and beat up on the mat. He hasn’t fought great fighters since then though. The best wrestler he probably fought was William Knight in the amateurs who was able to take him down and dominate him. This fight will likely be a striking battle though. De Castro’s cardio is also a question mark. He has only been out of round one three times and didn’t throw much vs Hardy after the first.
Carlos Felipe
Age: 25
Height: 6’0
Weight: 261
Reach: 75”
Gym: LIFE MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 124
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +200
Carlos Felipe is also coming off the first loss of his career. He is an 8-1 25-year-old prospect coming out of Brazil. Felipe should perform better here after he knocked the rust off from a long layoff three months ago. With this fight though we have two low level, middling heavyweights but it should be a banger. Felipe is a dog who uses grit toughness, and maybe a little bit of crazy to counter act his lack of technicality. Felipe is a wild man on the feet. He comes forward and throws with bad intentions. He has good straight punches and overhands to close distance. Inside, he will throw wide, heavy hooks. He has good jabs and one-twos. Felipe has good hand speed for a heavyweight & nice combos inside. He rips the body well & will throw good volume. Felipe loves the war & is willing to take a punch to give one back. He is a hittable guy, because he will just stand in front and trade, but he has good hand speed for a heavyweight, so he can usually land first. Felipe will try to goad guys in by talking shit, dropping his hands, and even flicking people off and being crazy mid fight. He will slap fighters & really tries to play the head games. Felipe doesn’t look like he really has one punch knockout power and is more of a volume guy. Felipe does have 6 KO/TKO’s in 8 wins.
Carlos Felipe is not a great grappler. I’ve only been able to find two of his pro fights. He can get controlled against the cage & didn’t look great in the clinch. He held the cage to deny clinch takedowns a couple times & looked like he didn’t have best defense. He is a big, heavy guy, and looks like he has heavy hips. He will use a wide base & the cage to help him stay up. When he was taken down in the third vs Sergey Spivak, he lost the round 10-8 and was almost finished. He did get some top position in fights I saw but no takedowns of his own. On top, he didn’t look like much. He seems to not be much of a grappler. Felipe gasses out & gets progressively sloppier as fights continue.
These are big boys and one of them will most likely get knocked out here. Neither are great talents and it could just come down to who lands that big shot first. Castro is not the type of Heavyweight I would want to lay close to 3-1 on against basically anybody in the division, so this is already dog or pass for me. Felipe can come out of the gates hot though and I think he will be going for that kill first. He is the younger guy as well and there isn’t anything about Castro’s game that makes this a clear pick for him. I think Felipe is a live underdog here and if this does go all 3-rounds I think he can win a close decision as well.
This fight is tied for the highest FDGTD line on the card at -270. It is one we need to target in MME and both sides of it. Either guy could land the big bomb in round 1 and score 100+ so this is one of the best GPP fights on the card. Felipe is my preferred play because he is cheap, and I would rather pay up for guys I am more confident in. GPP only but Felipe is one of my favorite underdogs on the card. Castro is also a fine GPP play but I will be in line with the field or underweight on him.
Winner – Carlos Felipe via 1st round (T)KO
Holly Holm $8,400 vs Irene Aldana $7,800
Holly Holm
Age: 38
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: JacksonWink MMA
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 6-5
Fight Matrix: 3
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -120
Holly Holm is a former boxing champion but has really made her money with her kicks in MMA. She likes to use her feints, footwork & movement to pot shot opponents on the outside with kicks. Holm’s boxing is more used as a countering mechanism. She will throw jabs & crosses out there to try to gauge distance, but she can struggle to find her range with punches when forced to go first. She is very good though at countering with her straight-left hand & exiting. She also has a nice check right hook. Her lead leg is very active. She will use the oblique kicks to the knees to close the distance. She will also throw nasty, lead leg sidekicks to the body & head. Her left kick is the more powerful of the two. She will attack with nice round kicks to the inside of the legs body & head. Once she gets opponents reaching to the body, she will bring the kick up to the head. She has a very nice question mark kick. Holm will slip shots & return with kicks, and fighters always have to be weary of it when they’re fighting her. She has multiple head kick knockouts. She has 8 KO/TKO’s & was finished by strikes for the first time in MMA in her last match.
Holly Holm has rounded out her game & we finally got to see some wrestling from her in her match with Megan Anderson. She was able to get multiple clinch takedowns against Anderson & smothered her from top position. She isn’t really dangerous on top, but she has good control. In the clinch, she is very physically strong. She will back opponents to the cage easily with double underhooks. She doesn’t get much offense off from the position, but she can control & stall. She was able to do this against the much bigger Cyborg. Holm is very good at defending judo in the clinch. Holm has good distance control & is tough to take down. She really has only been taken down by Miesha Tate, and she defended the majority of her takedowns. Holm off her back probably will be in trouble. She was submitted by Tate, but she is not in the quick tap club. She will most likely not tap if in a bad position. Holm has been submitted one time & has zero submissions. She has always shown good cardio & comes ready to go to war.
Irene Aldana
Age: 32
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 68.5”
Gym: Lobo Gym MMA
From: Mexico
UFC Record:5-3
Fight Matrix: 5
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +100
Irene Aldana is a slick boxer who strikes at range and controls distance very well. She has great footwork & lateral movement. She has a nasty jab, and heavy leg kicks. She has a nice one-two, and her straight-right hand is very fast and accurate. She will throw nice counter left hooks. The left hook she knocked Viera out with was a thing of beauty. She will throw a jab, straight-right, uppercut combination. She will also throw an uppercut to straight-right hand combo. She is very fluid with her combinations, has good power and hand speed. Aldana doesn’t move her head when she throws much & can get hit with jabs & hooks entering range. She isn’t great fighting backwards and will do a lot of leaning back & covering up. When Rocky went forward & threw combinations she had a lot of success. She is heavy on her lead leg & can be leg kicked. She also can be hit to the body because she uses a high guard. She is the significantly faster fighter with her foot speed in this matchup & she needs to try to pressure and force boxing exchanges. She isn’t much of a kicker, but she has good leg kicks, and will occasionally land a body kick. She was throwing more front kicks to the body in her last match, and she should throw those here. She is good at staying in the pocket & countering with combinations. Aldana doesn’t hit as hard moving backwards, and fighters are willing to eat her shots to give one. She has 6 career KO/TKO’s. She has been TKO’d twice. I think she is a bit on the chinny side, but she’s very tough.
Aldana is very physically strong, and good in the clinch with knees and elbows. She won’t go for takedowns very often. She is just 2-4 on takedowns in her UFC career. She has solid takedown defense and does a great job of digging double underhooks and reversing the takedown and taking top position. She has strong elbows on top and will attack with submissions as well. She likes to take the back & has solid rear naked chokes. She sprawled on a bad takedown attempt of Bethe Correia, took the back & locked in an armbar. She is good in the scrambles and usually lands on top. She can be controlled against the cage & taken down by fighters who can set up takedowns with strikes. She has great get-ups though & overall is a good grappler. She was able to deny & reverse position on almost all the takedown attempts of Pennington in their match. When she was taken down, she aggressively looked for leg locks. She has good cardio and will push for all five rounds. She is a finisher and has finished 9 of her 12 wins. She has four submissions. Aldana has never fought a southpaw & struggles with kickers.
This should be a 25-minute striking match. Holm will likely be trying to keep this fight on the outside and pick her spots while Aldana will be the one pressing forward and pushing the pace. Holm has never been a volume striker though and she has just been a better and more technical striker than most the other women she has fought. That might not be the case in this one. Aldana is a good striker with solid movement and it would be a bit shocking if she wasn’t the one landing more volume. Aldana is a bit too hittable though so Holm can change rounds with a big shot or land the KO. However, if this goes all 5-rounds, Aldana should be the one getting her hand raised.
Aldana is my preferred play because when she wins, she scores well. That is not always the case for Holm. I think Holm is in play as well and she could get a KO here. I just might full fade her with this being the main event and her having a big name. That should make her ownership higher than I want leverage on so I will get my leverage on Aldana instead. I like her in all formats and if she wins this fight I’d be shocked if she didn’t score more than 10x. Aldana might be a core play for me this weekend and if this goes to a decision and she doesn’t win, it will be a boring fight most likely.
Winner – Irene Aldana via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown & be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building & I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend & enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks & predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice & fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: BigMarleyMMA.com
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