The Southern 500 is one of my favorite races of the year and I am very excited to have a plethora of data to dig through, since we were here for two races earlier this year. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
May 17, 2020, Darlington, SC, USA; Kevin Harvick (4) makes a pit stop during the NASCAR Cup Series auto race. Mandatory Credit: Brynn Anderson/Pool Photo via USA TODAY Network
Top Plays
Kevin Harvick – Hard to keep Harvick out of your action here. He was the class of the field back in May, and while he didn’t have the same dominant performance in race 2, that was a weird short race that had over 50 caution laps…hard to set a rhythm (especially when you start 20th) . The 8th place starting spot and lower price makes him the elite play of this slate compared to Hamlin, though his ownership will be a lot higher (I think.). Alas, he should compete for a win and lead a bunch of laps while he does.
Erik Jones – Jones is an ELITE Darlington driver, and well he hasn’t been finishing well as of late, he has been RUNNING quite well. At Darlington, he has never finished outside the top 8 despite starting outside the top 10 4/5 starts. He starts 30th here so he has a ton of differential potential, and I think he is a legit threat for a top three run. I am very bullish on Jones.
Kyle Busch – This is a a dangerous spot for the Kyle Busch. The prevailing threory is that Kyle Busch “struggles” in 2020 are due to the lack of practice. Well – Crew Chief Adam Stevens has two races worth of notes to lean on, including notes from a race where KB ran second. KB dommed this race last year, and did so from a 33rd place starting spot. He starts 15th this time around, and I expect he will be top five before long. I expect him to compete for a win.
Martin Truex Jr.- This is a risky play for sure, but given how chalky Hamlin is poised to be, I think this is an interesting pivot. If we are looking to shape this race…I think Elliott will get the lead, Hamlin will get the dreaded inside line and COULD struggle to find a spot in line…Truex should be a bit faster than the Hendrick machines…SO if Truex gets the jump on Hamlin he will be a real threat to dominate this race early. He is another guy who will benefit from a notebook full of notes, and we know when Truex nails the setup at Darlington, the field is in for a long night. His form right now is incredible, boasting eight top 4s in a row. I think he goes overlooked and could easily ruin this slate.
Fades
Joey Gase
JJ Yeley
Josh Bilicki
James Davison
Timmy Hill
Quin Houff
Brennan Poole
Value Plays
Tyler Reddick – Reddick had his breakout performances at Darlington in May, where he had impressive 7th and 13th place finishes. He rolls off 24th, and is live for a top ten. Whats most exciting about Reddick is his ability in the high groove. He logs a lot of fast laps at the end of runs and that pays great dividends in DFS. Love Reddick this week and wouldn’t be surprised if he even meanders into the top 5 at times.
Matt Kenseth – I am gonna go broke if I keep playing Kenseth…and maybe this is a square play, but if you look at the loop data from Darlington earlier in the year Kenseth was pretty impressive. This is A level equipment, and a once A level driver starting 26th at a drivers track. Its too much to pass up from me. I think we will get some cheap leverage on him too, since I gotta be the only dope still touting this guy.
Christopher Bell – Bell was decent here in May and has improved leaps and bounds over the last couple months. Once he settles into these cars and gets fully under the Joe Gibbs banner…he is going to win a lot of races. He may not win this one, but he should do well enough against at 21st place starting spot for us to get some value.
Chris Buescher – Some more cheap leverage I think we can steal. Buescher ran poorly at Darlington earlier in the year, but you can chalk that up to a lot of things. If you throw those races out he has been solid at Darlington. He has 6 top 20s in a row, and his 19th place starting spot will likely scare most off. Not me, I’ll take it all day at $5700 for a guy who can easily put this ride into the top 15.
Other Notables
Denny Hamlin, Ross Chastain, and Ryan Newman are all super live and worth a look.
So there it is folks. Those are my favorite play this weekend. Keep an eye on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.
