(FREE!) DFS Army Full Count – MLB Game Breakdown, Pitching Advice, and Stack Strategy for FanDuel and Draftkings – September 20th, 2020

Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!

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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.

  • Max Scherzer
  • Carlos Carrasco
  • Deivi Garcia

Want to see what I have to say about the 3 SPs above?  Come join the fun!

 

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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:

Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles

Starting Pitchers:

Rays – Ryan Yarbrough

Orioles – John Means

Rundown:  

Waiting on Vegas information.  Means appears to have started to figure things out and he is NOT the same pitcher he was to begin the season.  I think this game ends up lower scoring but we do get a couple of bats that have had some strong success against the opposing SP.  I am interested to see what kind of a game total we end up with.

TB 5-star plays: Mike Brosseau

4-star plays: Randy Arozarena

GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 over the last 7 games.

BAL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Renato Nunez

GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 over the last 8 games.


Cleveland Indians (-198) @ Detroit Tigers

Starting Pitchers:

Indians – Carlos Carrasco

Tigers – Matthew Boyd

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 8 runs.  Carrasco has made just 1 start against DET this season and it did NOT go his way.  With that said, the Tigers strike out a ton against RHPs and his teammates have had plenty of success this series.  One of Boyd’s better starts this season came against the Indians.  It’s really tough to ignore the 13 HRs that Boyd has allowed this season, thru 49.1 innings.

CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor

4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Jordan Luplow

GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last 6 games.

DET 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Willi Castro

GPP Note: Team ISO of .095 over the last 6 games.


Los Angeles Dodgers (-184) @ Colorado Rockies

Starting Pitchers:

Dodgers – Tony Gonsolin

Rockies – Antonio Senzatela

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 12.5.  At this point, I have to believe the Rockies just want the season to be over with.  They have played 15 games in September and have managed to score just 66 runs.  Of those 15 games, 10 have come at home so no Coors field advantage going on.  Gonsolin has been sensational this season and I might just have to be about him in Coors, against an offense that looks lost.

LAD 5-star plays: Corey Seager

4-star plays: AJ Pollock, Mookie Betts

GPP Note: Team ISO of .234 over the last 7 games.

COL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Charlie Blackmon

GPP Note: Team ISO of .093 over the last 6 games.

 

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Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets (-116)

Starting Pitchers:

Braves – Kyle Wright

Mets – Rick Porcello

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 10 runs.  We should see some strong offenses here as the game has a high total and both pitchers can struggle when it comes to run prevention.  I really like the Mets side initially as Wright has struggled with control and LHBs have given him some issues.

ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman

4-star plays: Travis d’Arnaud, Marcel Ozuna

GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 over the last 6 games.

NYM 5-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo

4-star plays: Dominic Smith, Michael Conforto

GPP Note: Team ISO .130 over the last 6 games.


 

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St Louis Cardinals (-160) @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Starting Pitchers:

Cardinals – Jack Flaherty

Pirates – Joe Musgrove

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 8.  Flaherty really disappointed me his last time out but I think we need to go back to him here.  The Cardinals need to get him right if they want to make some noise down the stretch.  Musgrove is somebody that I basically bet on to give at least 1 HR in every start.  A few Cardinals bats have some interesting BvP history.

STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt

4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Tyler O’Neill

GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 over the last 10 games.

PIT 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Josh Bell

GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 over the last 9 games.


New York Yankees (-164) @ Boston Red Sox

Starting Pitchers:

Yankees – Deivi Garcia

Red Sox – Tanner Houck

Rundown:

This game has a total set at 10.  I am honestly torn on what to do in this game.  The Yankees are scorching at the plate but Houck looked legit in his debut last time out.  This game has a very high total so we have to assume the Yankees bats stay hot but that start was extremely impressive by Houck.  On the other side, Garcia has been really impressive as a rookie so far as well.

NYY 5-star plays: Luke Voit, Clint Frazier

4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton

GPP Note: Team ISO of .371 over the last 6 games.

BOS 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Christian Arroyo

GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 over the last 6 games.


Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros (-225)

Starting Pitchers:

Diamondbacks – Madison Bumgarner

Astros – Jose Urquidy

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 9.5.  Bumgarner has given up 12 HRs over his last 5 starts.  He has thrown just 20.2 innings in those 5 starts.  That equates to giving up 5.35 HRs/9.  I know the Astros have burnt us a lot this season but I am going to be heading back to the well here.  Urquidy looked dominant against TEX in his last start but I feel like there’s some slight regression coming up and a guy like Calhoun has been SUPER hot.

ARI 5-star plays: Kole Calhoun

4-star plays: David Peralta

GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last 6 games.

HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman

4-star plays: Jose Altuve, George Springer

GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 over the last 6 games.

 

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San Diego Padres (-220) @ Seattle Mariners

Starting Pitchers:

Padres – Dinelson Lamet

Mariners – Justin Dunn

Rundown:

This game has a total set at 8.5 runs.  Remember that this game is being played in San Diego as the air quality in Seattle was just horrendous.  We get to see SD guaranteed 9 innings of AB’s while they are playing at home.  Lamet has been absolutely filthy this season but his worst start of the year did come against this SEA squad.  He has 58 Ks in 42 home innings while allowing just an average of .163 against him.

SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado

4-star plays: Jurickson Profar

GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last 6 games.

SEA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Kyle Lewis

GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last 7 games.


Chicago White Sox (-120) @ Cincinnati Reds

Starting Pitchers:

White Sox – Dylan Cease

Reds – Michael Lorenzen

Rundown:

This game has a total set at 9 runs.  Lorenzen jumped into the rotation on Tuesday and threw a gem, needing 75 pitches to get through 5 innings.  He should be able to advance to around 90 pitches here and while the match-up is much tougher than Tuesday’s, I do think he is sneaky enough to be considered.  Cease has been really solid and is a road favorite here.

CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu

4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez

GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 over the last 7 games.

CIN 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Shogo Akiyama, Joey Votto

GPP Note: Team ISO of .222 over the last 7 games.


Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies

Starting Pitchers:

Blue Jays – Taijuan Walker

Phillies – Undecided

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information.

TOR 5-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr

4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Bo Bichette

GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 over the last 7 games.

PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper

4-star plays: Didi Gregorius, Alec Bohm

GPP Note: Team ISO of .215 over the last 9 games.


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Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins – Game 1

Starting Pitchers:

Nationals – Max Scherzer

Marlins – Sandy Alcantara

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information.

WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto

4-star plays: Trea Turner, Luis Garcia

GPP Note: Team ISO of .085 over the last 6 games.

MIA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Miguel Rojas, Jesus Aguilar

GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 over the last 9 games.

Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins – Game 2

Starting Pitchers:

Nationals – Undecided

Marlins – Undecided

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information.

WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto

4-star plays: Trea Turner, Luis Garcia

GPP Note: Team ISO of .085 over the last 6 games.

MIA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Miguel Rojas, Jesus Aguilar

GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 over the last 9 games.


Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs

Starting Pitchers:

Twins – Jose Berrios

Cubs – Yu Darvish

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information.  I assume we will be waiting on the wind here.  If the wind is blowing in, we want both SPs with Darvish being an absolute stud.  If the wind is blowing out or neutral, I want to stack some Cubs because Berrios has been atrocious away from home this season, especially to RHBs.

MIN 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano

GPP Note: Team ISO of .251 over the last 7 games.

CHC 5-star plays: Javier Baez

4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras

GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 over the last 5 games.


Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels (-142)

Starting Pitchers:

Rangers – Kyle Cody

Angels – Julio Teheran

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 9.5.  So this game is really interesting as we get a high total with a guy starting who doesn’t go deep because he walks a high number of batters and then the other starter (Teheran) is somebody we always look to stack against at this point.  Teheran just faced TEX and allowed 5 runs in 4.2 innings.

TEX 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor

GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 over the last 7 games.

LAA 5-star plays: Jared Walsh

4-star plays: Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon

GPP Note: Team ISO of .218 over the last 6 games.


Kansas City Royals @ Milwaukee Brewers (-150)

Starting Pitchers:

Royals – Brad Keller

Brewers – Josh Lindblom

Rundown:

This game has a total set at 8.5 runs.  Keller is coming off of a complete-game shutout and yet is a pretty decent underdog against an underwhelming Brewers squad.  I know the last two road starts for Keller have been bad but he was dominant prior to those starts.  On the other side, we get Lindblom, who was demoted to the bullpen and then made a return to the rotation and was dominant during a 7 inning game.  He has been destroyed by LHBs this season.

KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez

4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi

GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 over the last 5 games.

MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich

4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Keston Hiura

GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last 8 games.


San Francisco Giants @ Oakland Athletics

Starting Pitchers:

Giants – Johnny Cueto

Athletics – Mike Minor

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information.

SF 5-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Mauricio Dubon

4-star plays: Donovan Solano, Darrin Ruf

GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last 5 games.

OAK 5-star plays: Jake Lamb

4-star plays: Matt Olson

GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 over the last 8 games.


Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

  1. New York Mets
  2. Houston Astros
  3. Atlanta Braves

MLB Dinger of the Day – George Springer, Houston Astros


As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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