(FREE!) DFS Army Full Count – MLB Game Breakdown, Pitching Advice, and Stack Strategy for FanDuel and Draftkings – September 19th, 2020

Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Matt aka @mdellagnese14 on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!

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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.

  • Trevor Bauer
  • Corbin Burnes
  • Kevin Gausman

Want to see what I have to say about the 3 SPs above?  Come join the fun!

 

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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:

San Francisco Giants @ Oakland A’s (-148)

Starting Pitchers:

Giants – Kevin Gausman

A’s – Jesus Luzardo

Rundown:  

This game opened with a total set at 8.  Both of these pitchers have been pitching very well of late and I expect this game to be pretty low scoring here. Gausman has been really good for the Giants this year and has major upside in this matchup with OAK struggling on offense. Luzardo has been pretty dominant too, racking up 14 K’s over his last 2 starts. SF’s offense can go in ruts too.

SFG 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Evan Longoria

GPP Note: Team ISO of .269 over the last 2 weeks to LHP.

OAK 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Tommy La Stella, Sean Murphy

GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last 2 weeks to RHP.


Toronto Blue Jays (-135)@ Philadelphia Phillies

Starting Pitchers:

Blue Jays – Hyun Jin-Ryu

Phillies – Vince Velasquez

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs.  Velasquez has allowed 4 or more runs in 2 of his last 4 starts and hasn’t gone deep into many games. Ryu has been the best starter for TOR and is normally good for a strikeout per inning. Definitely favor the Blue Jays here tonight.

TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio

4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 over the last 2 weeks to RHP

PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm

4-star plays: Jay Bruce, Didi Gregorius, Andrew McCutchen

GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 over the last 2 weeks to LHP.


Washington Nationals (-105) @ Miami Marlins

Starting Pitchers:

Nationals – Patrick Corbin

Marlins – Pablo Lopez

Rundown:

This game opens up with a game total of just 8 runs. I can see both pitchers pitching good games here. Even though the Marlins have been good against LHP, Corbin has been solid against MIA this season. Lopez has shown flashes of upside, but this Washington team is very dangerous.

WSH 5-star plays: Trea Turner, Juan Soto

4-star plays: NONE

GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 over the last 2 weeks vs RHP.

MIA 5-star plays: Starling Marte

4-star plays: Brian Anderson, Jesus Aguilar, Garrett Cooper

GPP Note: Team ISO of .264 over the last 2 weeks vs LHP.

 

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Cleveland Indians (-160) @ Detroit Tigers

Starting Pitchers:

Indians – Triston McKenzie

Tigers – Spencer Turnbull

Rundown:

Total of 8.5 to open this game here and both starters have been pitching pretty well. The Indians are so hit or miss lately and didn’t do anything in a great matchup last night. Turnbull has allowed 5 ER in 2 of his last 3 starts though and couldn’t make it out of the 5th inning last time he faced the Indians. McKenzie has been really good in 5 starts this year, striking out 33 hitters in just 25.1 innings. If he can go deeper into this game he should have a high K ceiling. This DET team hasn’t been great against RHP and McKenzie could strikeout 7+ here tonight.

CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez

4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Tyler Naquin, Francisco Lindor, Franmil Reyes

GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last 2 weeks vs RHP.

DET 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Willi Castro

GPP Note: Team ISO of .108 over the last 2 weeks vs RHP.


 

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St Louis Cardinals (-185) @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Starting Pitchers:

Cardinals – Kwang Hyun Kim

Pirates – Mitch Keller

Rundown:

Vegas has this game opening at 8.5 with the Cards as pretty massive favorites. Kim has been really good this year with the Cards and gets a nice matchup with PIT here tonight. PIT has just a .103 ISO against LHP in the last 14 days and their offense just isn’t rolling. On the other hand, the Cardinals have been on fire of late and Keller isn’t a good starter.

STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt

4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Paul DeJong

GPP Note: Team ISO of .108 against RHP in the L14 days.

PIT 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes,

GPP Note: Team ISO of .103 against LHP in L14 days


Atlanta Braves (-135) @ New York Mets

Starting Pitchers:

Braves – Ian Anderson

Mets – David Peterson

Rundown:

This game has a total of 9 runs to open up, which I think is a little high with how good these pitchers have looked early in their MLB careers. I favor Anderson as he has been able to shut down some pretty good offenses through his first 4 MLB starts. Peterson has been pretty good but has had games where he allowed a few runs. Though ATL hasn’t looked good against LHP of late, they still have a dangerous offense.

ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna, Marcell Ozuna

4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Travis d’Arnaud, Adam Duvall

GPP Note: Team ISO of .101 over the last 14 days to LHP (don’t let this fool you, they have guys who MASH LHP).

NYM 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Dominic Smith, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo

GPP Note: Team ISO of .232 over the last 14 days to RHP.


Chicago White Sox @ Cincinnati Reds

Starting Pitchers:

White Sox – Dallas Keuchel

Reds – Trevor Bauer

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information here, but I assume it’ll open with the Reds being favorites at home here. Bauer has been absolutely on fire all season and has elite strikeout upside. I usually prefer CWS hitters against LHP. Keuchel is coming back from the IL but has looked pretty good this year for the White Sox.

CWS 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu

GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last 14 days to RHP

CIN 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Nick Castellanos,

GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 over the last 14 days to LHP.

 

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Kansas City Royals @ Milwaukee Brewers (-210)

Starting Pitchers:

Royals – Kris Bubic

Brewers – Corbin Burnes

Rundown:

This game opens at an 8.5 run total. I think it is more on the Brewers side because I don’t see the Royals being able to do much against Burnes. Burnes has been great this season and has over 10 strikeouts in 3 of his last 4 starts. Bubic has been good in his last 3 starts, but this MIL team looks like they could start heating up soon.

KCR 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Sal Perez, Adalberto Mondesi

GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 over the last 2 weeks vs RHP.

MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura

4-star plays: Ryan Braun, Jedd Gyroko

GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 over the last 14 days to LHP.


Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros (-160)

Starting Pitchers:

Diamondbacks – Luke Weaver

Astros – Cristian Javier

Rundown:

This game has a total set at 9 runs and I think it’s more for the Astros. Weaver has been shaky all season and has allowed at least 2 ER in his last 5 starts. He’s doing a bit better than he was earlier in the season, and this HOU team is struggling on offense. For ARI, they were on a little hot stretch, but Javier has allowed just 3 ER over his last 3 starts. If he can hold down his walks, ARI may not be able to score much.

ARI 5-star plays: Kole Calhoun

4-star plays: David Peralta

GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 over the last 14 days to RHP.

HOU 5-star plays: George Springer, Kyle Tucker

4-star plays: Alex Bregman

GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last 14 days to RHP.


New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox

Starting Pitchers:

Yankees – J.A. Happ

Red Sox – Chris Mazza

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information here. Looks like Mazza may get the start for Boston though. Happ has been much better of late and has been able to limit offenses and grab some strikeouts. BOS is in a pretty big funk and I never feel comfortable playing them. Mazza has worked mainly as an opener or a guy who will go 3ish innings. No interest there as the Yanks are the hottest team in baseball right now.

NYY 5-star plays: Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu

4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge (beware, one or both of these guys may have the night off after the extra-inning game last night), Clint Frazier, Gio Urshela, Gary Sanchez

GPP Note: Team ISO of .274 over the last 14 days to RHP

BOS 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Christian Vazquez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers

GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 over the last 14 days to LHP.


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Tampa Bay Rays (-180) @ Baltimore Orioles

Starting Pitchers:

Rays – Charlie Morton

Orioles – Jorge Lopez

Rundown:

This game opens up with a 9 run total. Morton hasn’t been the best since coming back from the IL, but his pitch count has been increasing. Lopez just isn’t that good. The Rays did take a hit but putting Meadows on the IL yesterday. I think TB will put up some runs, here and get Morton the win tonight.

TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Nate Lowe

4-star plays: Maneul Margot, Kevin Kiermaier

GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last 14 days to RHP.

BAL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, DJ Stewart

GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 vs RHP over the last 14 days.


Los Angeles Dodgers (-280) @ Colorado Rockies

Starting Pitchers:

Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw

Rockies – Chi Chi Gonzalez

Rundown:

Shocker to see here a Coors total at 11.5 runs. It opened up at 11 and already went up half a run since that line came out. The Dodgers are one of the best offenses in baseball and Gonzalez either won’t go deep into the game or will get crushed in the first couple innings. I love using the Dodgers but love it even more when they are playing in Coors.

LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Corey Seager

4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, AJ Pollock, Will Smith, Justin Turner

GPP Note: Team ISO of .219 vs RHP in the last 14 days.

COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story

4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Kevin Pillar

GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 over the last 14 days to LHP.


Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs (-130)

Starting Pitchers:

Twins – Michael Pineda

Cubs – Alec Mills

Rundown:

Like usual with games in Wrigley, we will have to wait until later in the afternoon to see what the total will be set at, depending on what way the wind is blowing. Mills is fresh off a no-hitter and it’s not unusual for pitchers to really struggle after throwing a no no. Mills isn’t that great of a pitcher, so I expect him to give up some runs tonight. Pineda has had elite strikeout stuff since coming off the IL and has 8 K’s in back to back games.

MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz

4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton

GPP Note: Team ISO of .280 over the last 14 days to RHP

CHC 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: NONE

GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 over the last 14 days to RHP.


San Diego Padres (-180) @ Seattle Mariners

Starting Pitchers:

Padres – Mike Clevinger

Mariners – Justus Sheffield

Rundown:

Low opening total of this game at just 8 runs. Both of these pitchers have actually been pitching very well of late and both offenses have been struggling a bit. The Padres still have immense power against LHP and have major upside here.

SDP 5-star plays: Manny Machado

4-star plays: Wil Myers, Fernando Tatis Jr

GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 over the last 14 days to LHP.

SEA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Kyle Seager

GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last 14 days to RHP.


Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels (-155)

Starting Pitchers:

Rangers – Lance Lynn

Angels – Andrew Heaney

Rundown:

Vegas opened this game with the lowest total on the board at 7.5 runs. I agree with this too as both pitchers have been pitching very well of late. Texas’s offense has just been absolutely brutal this season and they have been even worse against LHP. Andrew Heaney has flashed some upside this year which makes him a very interesting game play today. Lynn has been so lights out, but this Angels team still has upside.

TEX 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: NONE

GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 over the last 14 games vs LHP.

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon

4-star plays: Jared Walsh, Andrelton Simmons

GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 over the last 14 days to RHP


Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

  1. New York Yankees
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers
  3. Tampa Bay Rays

MLB Dinger of the Day – AJ Pollock, Los Angeles Dodgers


As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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