BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC Vegas 9 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
This weekend, we have a 10-fight card at the UFC Apex in Vegas that will have no fans in attendance due to the pandemic. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $350k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games & look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience & you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player & it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups & 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights, & hopefully I can help you build some winning lineups:
Hunter Azure $9,100 vs Cole Smith $7,100
Hunter Azure
Age: 28
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 75
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -225
Hunter Azure needs to bounce back in a big way. He was a solid favorite in his last match and had a great first round, but ultimately got knocked out. Previous to that Azure was 8-0. The MMA Lab prospect has a pretty difficult style to fight. On the feet, the low kicks are definitely the signature part of his game. He attacks the calf and will make opponent’s legs mush by the end of the first round. Azure really likes his left hook. He starts almost all his combinations off it and will double & triple up on it. He likes to use it as a counter as he moves backward. Azure is good at feinting the left hook and coming with an overhand right or heavy low kick. Azure is explosive, and always feinting level changes. He will duck down and then come over the top with winging hooks or overhands. He was able to drop Brad Katona by doing this. Azure sets those attacks up very well by attacking the body throughout the fight. Azure will throw some decent round kicks to the body & head. His rear leg body kick is vicious. He definitely is dangerous, explosive and packs power. He is a bit stiff on the feet though and wings a lot. Someone who is a faster, sharper striker should be able to control distance, keep him on the outside and finesse him. He doesn’t throw a ton of volume or different shots, but what he does works for him. When he can go forward, he is a tough guy to deal with even on the feet. Azure can strike from long range & explode in along with landing low kicks which is a big advantage for him. He has abnormally long arms and can reach fighters when they can’t reach him, land & get out. Azure is going to have a 7.5” reach advantage over Natividad. Defensively on the feet, Azure can leave a little to be desired. He will lean back with his chin high, isn’t the most technical in the pocket or in exchanges and doesn’t like being pressured. Fighters also sometimes can just catch him as he tries to enter or exit. Azure was dropped by LJ Shulz in LFA in 2019. In his fight with Brian Kelleher, he had a very strong first round, gassed himself out & was knocked out badly in the second. Out of his eight wins Azure has three knockouts.
Hunter Azure is a strong grappler. He is a 4-time Montana high school wrestling state champion. His wrestling isn’t elite, but it is very good. Azure doesn’t look to have the best Jiu-Jitsu skills, but he is very physical with good top control. Azure has good single & double leg shots. He is good at coming up into a body lock after getting his hands connected and driving opponents to the mat. In top position, Azure likes to get to the wrestling ride position on the back & just grind. He will land short shots, work for the rear naked choke, and just keep opponents where he wants them. If opponents try to scramble to a single leg to stand up, Azure has a sick, front head lock. He will snap opponents back down and easily control them from that position. In his last match, Azure was out grappled by Katona. He was taken down a couple times and was out muscled in the clinch. When Azure gets taken down, he is very good at popping right back up. He is a very scrappy guy and will be hard to break and just get laid on. In this fight I kind of expect Azure to use a similar game plan to the one he used against Katona and try to walk down Smith, keep it standing and out strike him. He may able to take Smith down, but he always has to be worried about the sub, and I just don’t think it’s worth the risk if he’s having his way on the feet. Azure has just one career submission.
Cole Smith
Age: 31
Height: 5’11
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: The Sound Martial Arts
From: Canada
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 165
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +185
Cole Smith is making his return to the octagon after his first loss as well. Smith lost a split decision to Miles Johns. Smith’s striking is not very good. In his matches vs Mitch Gagnon & Miles Johns, he was trying to keep the distance with kicks. He has very nice leg kicks. He was throwing a lot of round & front kicks to the body. He was throwing the front kick with both legs & to the head also. When he throws those kicks, he tends to leave his chin right in the air. Smith doesn’t really have hands. He will try to wing hooks in close range to back opponents off but doesn’t move his head & is extremely hittable. His movement isn’t bad, but he just isn’t the fastest or most explosive guy. The best aspect of his striking game is when he can get opponent’s backs against the cage. There it’s harder to gauge when he’s going to throw or shoot in, so he can land some hand combinations along with some nice kicks & knees. He throws nice combinations off the breaks. His striking really isn’t dangerous though, and if opponents are able to pressure him & stuff the takedowns, I’m not sure he will have much of an answer. He was rocked & dropped with a shot against Gagnon in round 3 & dropped by Johns. He does have two career knockouts.
Cole Smith is a grinder. He is big for the division & has unrelenting cardio. He is wild with his striking but uses it to back opponents up & clinch opponents up against the cage. He will control opponents against the cage while chain wrestling and wearing on opponents. He has very good double legs and will use the grip to circle to take the back standing. He was able to take Johns’ back & dominate the first round of their fight. He will stay in the wrestling ride position and just continue to mat return opponents when they try to stand up. His back takes are pretty good as well. He will get the body triangle & has good control. He doesn’t do a good job of softening his opponents up with punches to lock in the rear naked & just tries to use brute force. Due to that he’s not very proficient at finishing in back position. In his match with Gagnon, he was able to deny almost all the takedown attempts & took his back. He was controlled against the cage a bit but used a guillotine & kimura to defend the takedowns & get off the cage. Smith’s cardio & just doggedness wears on fighters & makes him tough to deal with.
Azure should be better everywhere here. He is the better striker who will striker at a higher pace and he is more dangerous as well. Smith is mainly a wrestler and he could have some success with takedowns, but Azure might be the better wrestler as well. Azure was knocked out cold in his last fight less than 4 months ago though, so I don’t like how fast he is coming back here, but Cole isn’t much of a KO striker, so it makes me less worried.
Azure is my preferred play on DK, but it could be hard to pay off his price tag. He is my favorite outright play on the card, so I like him in cash and will have him in GPPs, but I don’t think we have to force him into lineups. He does have wrestling and a high pace, so I think he can score well in a decision. We did see that high pace bite him in the last fight, so I don’t know that he has the same game plan here. Smith is also a good wrestler, so I don’t know that Azure can consistently get him down and we could see each guy pushing the other against the cage for periods of time which I always hate seeing for DK purposes. I don’t see Smith having a big score in a win here unless he can get a KO from Azure coming back too early, so I probably fade him this week.
Winner – Hunter Azure via Unanimous Decision
Alexander Romanov $8,400 vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima $7,800
Alexander Romanov
Age: 29
Height: 6’2
Weight: 265
Reach: N/A
Gym: Lion Comrat
From: Moldova
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak:
Betting Odds: -130
Alexander Romanov will be attempting to make his UFC debut for the third time September 5th. He has had two UFC fights cancelled due to the pandemic. He actually tested positive for Covid in July. Romanov is 11-0 overall though, and a big, athletic HW. His striking on the feet is super wild & unrefined. Romanov is fast though, he comes forward and keeps a crazy pace. He has really nice kicks to the body & head for a big guy. He comes forward behind straight line blitzes to get in on the legs. That’s really it on the feet for him. He is wild in exchanges, gets tired & vulnerable if forced to strike too long. He still is powerful & his body kick is pretty nasty. He is durable & knows his strengths. He isn’t looking to strike with people for long.
Romanov is a very strong, aggressive wrestler. He has been able to overwhelm his opponents with his size, strength & technique. At range, Romanov has nice singles & doubles. He will get his hands connected, pick fighters up & slam them down. He is good at using the singles & doubles to push fighters to the cage. He bullies fighters down to the mat with body locks and has some amazing throws. He will land suplexes and throw 260+ lb. men to the mat. On top, he wastes no time. He has great passing ability, ground & pound & when he gets in mount he is super heavy. He will get weird, modified Ezekiel & shoulder choke type submissions. Romanov doesn’t have the best Jiu-Jitsu in my opinion, and I’ve seen him put on his back before as well. I want to see Romanov vs a good grappler, but this is not the matchup. Romanov has gotten tired when fights hit the later rounds & his style is super high paced and wild. He has finished all his wins and has six submissions & five KO/TKO’s.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Age: 35
Height: 6’1
Weight: 257
Reach: 75”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 6-4
Fight Matrix: 56
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +110
Marco Rogerio de Lima will be looking for two wins in a row for the first time since 2014. He has been trading wins & losses for five years and is coming off a win in February. De Lima was able to knock out Ben Sosoli his last time out with relative ease. Pezao is 2-1 in the UFC at HW. If he can defeat Romanov, he probably will get a crack at a top 15 opponent. De Lima is a power, Muay Thai striker, and starts quickly. He has nasty low kicks & kicks to the body. He will put 100% power into the kicks, and really chops down the legs of fighters. I see those leg kicks potentially being very effective vs Romanov. He keeps a high guard & will explode in with left hook, straight-right hand combinations. He keeps good pressure on opponents, and did a good job forcing Wieczorek to have to circle with his back near the cage. He keeps a high guard & does a good job of returning with straight-right hands after he blocks a shot. He will throw an overhand right, left uppercut combo. He is at his best when he’s backing fighters up, throwing in combination & finishing with low kicks. He will occasionally go high with kicks, but I don’t think he will this fight. He is dangerous when he lets his hands go in close range & he will have a hand speed advantage in this fight. He has 12 career KO/TKO’s. He has a good chin & has only been finished by KO one time.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima has really struggled with grapplers throughout his career. All four of his UFC losses have come via submission. De Lima has 36% takedown defense in the UFC. I have seen him taken down in space with single legs, and in the clinch against the cage. Once he’s put on his back, he makes a lot of bad decisions. De Lima tries to be active with his guard, but his submission setups are super slow. I have seen him try to roll for leg locks in multiple fights, and his opponent just take his back. Nikita Krylov was able to take his back this way and submit him quickly after with a rear naked choke. In his fight with Gadzhimurad Antigulov, a pure grappler, de Lima was taken down less than 20 seconds into the fight. Antigulov was able to progress to mount with ease, snatched up the neck in a guillotine, and had de Lima tapping shortly after. De Lima isn’t an active wrestler himself. He has three takedowns in his entire UFC career, all in the same fight vs Wieczorek. It’s interesting though, because De Lima actually tried to takedown Struve also after dropping and controlling him the entire first round. Struve was able to reverse and trip him in the clinch, and it was elementary after that. He methodically passed to side control, locked in an arm triangle and closed the show. De Lima is heavy when he can get on top. He isn’t very dangerous, but he can hold fighters down and stays in full guard or half guard and chips away.
Romanov is an undefeated prospect making his UFC debut here. He is a sambo fighter and is going to look for takedowns/slams and then try to finish the fight with GNP or a submission from top control. De Lima is the better striker, but he does have issues stuffing takedowns and Romanov will be looking for them early and often. I think if he gets one he could finish the fight, but this is by far his toughest test to date and De Lima could knock him out early.
This is going to be pretty much an all-in fight for me. We have a -700 FDGTD line and Fight Won’t Start Round 2 is +100. This is likely a 1st round finish for a mid-ranged salary fight and I would be pretty surprised if this wasn’t on the optimal lineup. My preferred play is Romanov, but I want to be overweight on both sides most likely. I wouldn’t touch this fight in cash games, but I am not against using it in 100% of GPPs.
Winner – Alexander Romanov via 1st round Submission
Viviane Araujo $8,900 vs Montana de La Rosa $7,300
Viviane Araujo
Age: 33
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Cerrado MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 10
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -175
Viviane Araujo was unsuccessful trying to break into the top five her last time out. She dropped a close decision to Jessica Eye. At 33 years old Araujo has to get a dominant win here and try to move up in the division as quickly as possible. Araujo is extremely aggressive. She walks opponents down throwing hard jabs & straight-right hands. She is light on her feet with very nice movement, switching stances & darting in & out. She is super-fast. She has very nice leg kicks. She throws good one-twos & has big power in her hands. She has a nasty jab, overhand right or jab, left hook combo. She has solid hooks in close range & very fast hand speed. She will load up on huge uppercuts. She knocked Bernardo out with one punch in her last fight. In her fights in Pancrase, she won her previous two by swelling the eyes shut of her opponents. She does major damage when she lands. Her kicks are very nice also. She has nasty round & front kicks to the body. She will mix in spinning & head kicks also. Her kicks are extremely fast as well. When she gets her range and starts backing opponents up, switching stances & keeping the volume high, she’s a problem. She is hittable herself but doesn’t fear getting hit & returns right back. She also is heavy on her lead leg which leaves her susceptible to leg kicks. She is much better going forward than backwards. In her one loss she was knocked out by UFC fighter Sarah Frota. She has a similar matchup here to the fighter she fought last. De la Rosa & Eye are both fighters who are willing to eat shots to get inside or get takedowns. Araujo has 3 career KO/TKO’s.
Araujo is a great grappler. She is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu with strong wrestling offensively & defensively. She fought a big, strong black belt in Jiu-Jitsu in her last match & defended all the takedown attempts. Davis was able to get top position & win round two with control, but that was after sweeping with a leg lock. Another opponent, Talita Bernardo, had previously been able to takedown top 15 opponents such as Marion Reneau & Irene Aldana, and Vivi was up a weight class. Araujo’s takedown defense looks top notch. She has very heavy hips & a great whizzer. She will reverse the takedown into top position herself. She was able to take the back of Bernardo more than once in her last match in the scramble after defending the takedown. If she does get taken down, she is active off her back with sweeps & subs. She will attack armbars & leg locks. She has very good blast doubles herself & is very aggressive with ground & pound. She will move to dominant positions with ease. She has 4 career submissions & finished 7 of her 8 wins. Her cardio is a little bit questionable. She definitely slowed down in her last match which caused her to give up takedowns and lose the fight.
Montana De La Rosa
Age: 25
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Texas
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: 27
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +155
Montana De La Rosa has done very well in the UFC. She has a record of 4-1 overall, and her last performance was arguably her best performance. She won dominantly over Mara Romero Borella. De La Rosa’s striking is much improved. She is long & tries to accentuate her reach by throwing a jab, using head movement, & lateral footwork. She is still a bit flat footed & fighters who are good strikers with takedown defense could give her problems. She will throw nice check left hooks & left hook, right hook combinations in the pocket. She will mix uppercuts in with her hook combinations. She will throw occasional front kicks to the body, which I feel she should do more. She is tough & will take shots to get inside and get in the clinch. She was still coming forward with a crimson mask of blood against Nicco Montano. De La Rosa doesn’t have great power and has never won a fight by KO/TKO. She has been finished by TKO one time against top 15 UFC fighter Cynthia Calvillo.
De La Rosa is a good grappler. She is strong in the clinch and has good body lock takedowns. She will take shots to get in and grab an underhook, then dig her other, and is very physically strong in the clinch. She will use her length to get body lock trips & she has good control against the cage. She will throw knees to the body & elbows to the head & she has a solid Muay Thai plum clinch. She wears fighters out in the clinch & zaps their gas tanks. She will circle to the back from the clinch & go for standing back takes. In this fight, I feel she won’t be able to overpower Araujo in the clinch. When she was out muscled on TUF vs Montano it didn’t bode well for her. Montano was able to land some big knees to the body and get several takedowns. She was able to pass De La Rosa’s guard, control her on the mat & landed some nice G&P. She will try to catch guillotines on takedown attempts and has an active guard. I think that she will not be able to do much off her back against Araujo though because she struggles with top pressure. She is opportunistic in scrambles for submissions. She was able to survive a deep armbar, transition to the back & get a rear naked choke against Rachael Ostovich. She has earned her last 4 wins overall via submission & has 8 submissions overall. She has been submitted one time by Mackenzie Dern.
If Araujo can avoid being put on her back she should win this fight. She is the better striker and aside from jabs and kicks, de La Rosa won’t have much to offer on the feet and her striking is more used as a way to get inside and work for takedowns. De La Rosa should have the edge on the ground here and she will consistently look for takedowns and hunt for the submission. She can win this fight by submission or just winning two rounds of top control. Araujo should be able to stuff a good number of takedowns though so it’s hard to see de La Rosa having too much success, but she can keep this fight close and the line on Araujo is high. Not a lot of faith in this one but Araujo is the pick to win a decision by keeping this fight on the feet more than it is on the mat.
De La Rosa is the preferred play here because she is cheap and if she wins it will be grappling heavy or a submission. I could see Montana breaking the slate at her price, but I don’t really see that from Araujo unless she can get an early KO and I wouldn’t want to rely on that. I don’t see me having much Araujo this weekend so not against a fade there, but de La Rosa is a dog I think is playable in all formats. Since I am picking Araujo to win I probably won’t end up with a lot of De La Rosa, but she is one of the better dog plays IMO.
Winner – Viviane Araujo via Split Decision
Bartosz Fabinski $8,600 vs Andre Muniz $7,600
Bartosz Fabinski
Age: 34
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 75”
Gym: WCA Fight Team
From: Poland
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: 31
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -160
Bartosz Fabinski put another UFC win on the board in his last match. He defeated Darren Stewart, a strong, middleweight in dominant fashion. He actually had to fight in cage warriors to get that win. Bartosz is a grinder. On the feet, he doesn’t have much. He throws heavy shots and tries to use spins & flying attacks to close the distance. His defense is very bad, and if he can’t get takedowns or control time in a fight he is done. Fabinski has 8 KO/TKO’s but those are mostly all ground & pound finishes. He has never been finished by strikes.
Bartosz Fabinski is a very good grappler. He has good shots from the outside & really good takedowns along the cage. He controls fighters there, gets takedowns & controls on top doing just enough to not get stood up. He is good at grape vining his opponent’s legs, working to mount and dominant positions. He likes to trap wrists and hang on the back from the wrestling ride position. Bartosz doesn’t have great Jiu-Jitsu & has never gotten a submission. His submission defense is very good, but he hasn’t faced very many high level BJJ fighters. He was submitted by Michel Prazeres the one black belt he’s faced in the UFC. He has put himself in some bad positions & almost been submitted in the UFC multiple times. He has been submitted twice overall in his career. Fabinski has good cardio but slows down.
Andre Muniz
Age: 30
Height: 6’2
Weight: 170
Reach: 78”
Gym: Tata Fight Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 71
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: +140
Andre Muniz is an elite Jiu-Jitsu black belt. He won his UFC debut via close split decision. Andre Muniz’s striking is used to close the distance & get the fight to the mat, but he is very aggressive. He will come forward with big, powerful, looping hooks. He will wain forward with no fear of getting taken down. He will mix in some body & high kicks, but not a lot of variety in his striking or technicality. He will brawl with straight punches & uppercuts in the pocket but is very hittable. At range, he definitely struggles with striking. He is going to want to cut the cage off, make it small, strike to get ahold of Fabinski & stay on him. Muniz does have a sick pace & won’t stop coming forward. He is willing to take a shot to get inside but is super hittable and has been put down before. In all 4 of his losses he was KO/TKO’d. Muniz has just 4 KO/TKO’s in 19 wins.
Muniz’s takedowns really aren’t very good. He uses Jiu-Jitsu takedowns such as body locks & trips. Muniz will pull opponents on top of him with the body locks, and then quickly attack with sweeps or submissions. Muniz is extremely aggressive with his BJJ as well. He will jump on guillotines & is incredible at snatching them up when opponents shoot on him. Muniz has nice triangles & an amazing armbar. He will latch on to the arm quickly. When Muniz fought Bruno Assis, Assis was able to control a bit in top position but was swept & beaten up. Muniz will land nice shots from inside opponent’s guards. In his last match, he used an omaplata to reverse into a body lock, circled to the back & locked in the rear naked choke. In top position, he is looking to get the back & get the rear naked choke most of the time. He will look for arm triangles from half guard also. Muniz style is almost borderline reckless & due to that his fights do not make it the distance. He has gone to 4 decisions in 23 fights & is 4-0 in those fights. 10 of his last 12 fights have been finished in the first round. Muniz has finished 14 of his 18 wins within the first two rounds. He has 10 submissions.
Fabinski is a non-stop wrestler/grinder and if he wins this fight it will be from winning at least two rounds in the top position or getting a GNP stoppage. Muniz is the better all-around fighter though and if he can avoid being stuck on his back then he is very live here. Wrestling is one of the most tiring aspects of MMA and during a quarantine we don’t know if Fabinski will have the cardio to land multiple takedowns each round and he isn’t a good striker if he is stuck on the feet. Muniz can finish Fabinski on the feet or the ground so as the underdog he is the pick in this one.
I like both guys on DK and this will be a fight I am pretty heavy on. I like Muniz as a live dog that can finish, but he is going to need the finish to score. Fabinski can score 100+ in a decision win so he is probably the preferred play on DraftKings, but I do think he will be chalky because everyone knows what his game plan is. I wouldn’t want either side in cash games, but this is one of my favorite GPP fights on the card.
Winner – Andre Muniz via 1st round Submission
Thiago Moises $9,000 vs Jalin Turner $7,200
Thiago Moises
Age: 25
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 48
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -160
Thiago Moises is making his second start in the Covid era. He was successful in his last match defeating Michael Johnson in round two by submission. Moises has a good jab, and a very nice straight-right hand. He also has a nice right hook, and he is powerful. He is a slow starter, but he picks up as the fight goes on. He has nasty kicks; big leg, body and round kicks. He is athletic and will throw spinning heel kicks to the body and head, as well as jumping round house kicks. He is quick with the techniques and stays defensively sound while throwing them and after as well. He will throw nice question mark kicks to the head, and he had a pretty nasty head kick in his last win to set up the finish. He doesn’t know how to strike moving backwards. He has to have his feet planted to strike & when opponents pressure him the only time he throws shots are when his back is against the cage & he’s flat footed. Fighters are able to go first & land combinations along the cage on him. He will try to sit down & land hard counter hooks or straights to back his opponents up & then go forward with combinations of his own. He will just circle the octagon at times & be very passive, which is kind of odd. He definitely has big power and can drop fighters with his right hook. He only has 3 KO/TKO’s, but he has dropped and submitted fighters. He has a good chin and never been finished.
Moises is a submission specialist, and a black belt in BJJ. He is a strong fighter, and he is good in the clinch with knees and elbows. He has good body lock takedowns and will shoot doubles against the cage. In recent fights, he’s landed several well-timed single & double legs. When he does get on top, he is aggressive and prefers submission over position. His top control isn’t the greatest. In his last fight with Michael Johnson, he shot a single leg, pulled guard, and jumped on a leg lock ending the fight. It was kind of a sacrifice submission after getting worked in round one. Moises does have 6 career submissions.
Jalin Turner
Age: 25
Height: 6’3
Weight: 155
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: RVCA
From: California
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 171
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +140
Jalin Turner has been up & down in his UFC career. He is 2-2 overall in the promotion. His last time out he got a nice TKO finish. Turner is a very big, powerful LW with one shot finishing ability. He is 6’3 with a 75.5” reach. On the feet, Turner likes to inch forward, not use a lot of movement and looks to counter or put combos together behind his jab. He will switch stances to cut off the cage. Turner likes to throw the one-two. He is good at ripping the body with the lead left hook. He will feint low after he establishes that shot & come up into an uppercut. He will come forward behind overhands & wide hooks when he can back fighters towards the cage. Turner throws a lot of kicks also. He has nice, stabbing front kicks to the body. He will throw some round kicks to the body & head. Turner has nice spinning back kicks. Turner does have a dangerous counter knee up the middle. His forward pressure, size & presence freezes some opponents, and when they stand still Turner tees off & finishes the fight. If you look at Turner’s record, seven of his eight wins have come that way. Turner is pretty flat footed, low volume, and a bit slow. Matt Frevola was touching and moving a lot, and Turner couldn’t match the speed. Turner will leave his chin right on center line & squares up at times. He will throw front knees or body kicks too close & leave his chin right out there to get hit. Due to that, Turner has been put away a lot & has a weak chin. Turner has been knocked out three times in his career already.
Jalin Turner is not the best grappler. In the clinch, he is dangerous with knees & elbows. He has improved his takedown defense. He will dig nice underhooks and has a good whizzer. Turner still can be taken down to the mat with well-timed shots and squares up in his stance giving up his hips. He will look to counter takedown shots with knees that are dangerous. Once Turner is put on his back, I don’t like what I see. Against Frevola, he gave up mount, the back, and was almost guillotined a couple times. He showed good composure and submission defense but put himself in bad positions. In his last fight, Turner showed good ground & pound. He landed some heavy elbows. He went for a nice, high elbow guillotine. His grappling is improving but that’s not where he wants to be with Moises. Turner also slows down in fights and has poor cardio.
This should be a striker vs grappler match. Either guy can hang in any area, but Turner is much more dangerous on the feet and Moises is much more dangerous on the ground. If there is a stoppage it should be Turner by KO or Moises by submission and I do think those are the two most likely outcomes. If this goes the distance, then it is hard to see how this plays out, but Moises will likely need takedowns and top control time for him to get his hand raised. At this price, this is dog or pass for me, so Turner is the pick and hopefully he can keep this fight on the feet.
Turner is the preferred play here, but I think he will be chalk this week and that makes me like him slightly less. I think he is in play in all formats and he can break the slate with a KO, but I don’t know how much leverage I can get if he is going to be near 30% owned. Right now, I am leaning going overweight, but I will just spread my underdog exposure around and just see how much he fits into. Moises is closer to a fade for me, but he should be low owned, and I think he is in play for takedowns and an early submission, so I won’t X him out of my pool and I think he makes sense as a low owned hedge play if I do go overweight on Turner.
Winner – Jalin Turner via 1st round (T)KO
Brian Kelleher $9,200 vs Kevin Natividad $7,000
Brian Kelleher
Age: 34
Height: 5’6
Weight: 145
Reach: 64”
Gym: Long Island MMA
From: New York
UFC Record: 5-4
Fight Matrix: 52
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -220
Brian Kelleher isn’t the most athletic fighter, but he is a true dog. He has elite cardio, durability, and just overall toughness. Kelleher tends to struggle in round one of a lot of fights. He needs to walk down, pressure and get his opponent a bit tired. Kelleher on the outside switches stances & throws a lot of kicks. He has nice low leg kicks, good front & round kicks to the body & head and will throw the occasional head kick. Kelleher will try to jab his way in. He will jab or throw a punch in one stance & then blitz in while switching stances with a straight or overhand. Kelleher has decent head movement, and when he can get in the pocket his hooks and uppercuts are powerful and dangerous. He will mix in a lot of body shots, and when he sees opponents tired he ups the volume. He hits hard and it has been evident in multiple fights. His last fight he finally closed the show with a big knockout shot. Kelleher is very hittable, but he just eats shots and comes forward. Unless opponents can take Kelleher out, they better be able to keep the pace for three rounds. Kelleher has 8 KO/TKO’s. He has only been finished by strikes one time against Jon Lineker.
Brian Kelleher is a very good submission grappler. Kelleher has been improving his wrestling. In his match with Ode Osbourne, he hit a nice single leg, dominated in top position, and ultimately snatched up a guillotine. I would be very surprised to see Kelleher land a takedown in this matchup. He is fighting a great former college wrestler, and I don’t see him looking for many takedowns. Kelleher’s takedown defense is pretty good, but it’s all centered around his guillotine. Kelleher is extremely dangerous with that guillotine, and if opponents shoot in on him, they better protect their neck. He is excellent at using it to roll into mount, and or finish the fight. The guillotine makes a lot of opponents hesitant to shoot on him & he’s been taken down just two times in the UFC. He has 84% takedown defense. Kelleher really hasn’t faced many grapplers though. He was taken down with a double leg vs Damian Stasiak & was controlled a bit. Kelleher has very good get-ups usually. Kelleher can be submitted. He tends to get submitted when he is in top position though. He will shoot in and get caught in something or get lazy inside of someone’s full guard. Kelleher has been submitted six times. He has 9 submissions mostly all guillotines.
Kevin Natividad
Age: 27
Height: 5’6
Weight: 145
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: Arizona Combat Sports
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 230
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: +180
Kevin Natividad is an athletic boxer/wrestler. He has good forward pressure, head movement & cuts angles well. He has a really nice lead left hook. He likes to draw out counters & land hook combinations inside. Natividad throws nice straight shots down the middle. He cuts good angles and creates counter opportunities off that. He has good body shots. Natividad doesn’t throw many kicks. He doesn’t check low kicks either. He isn’t very high volume, but he does have power. Natividad has five knockouts in his nine wins. His one loss he was knocked out in nine seconds.
Natividad is a decent grappler. He is athletic and has good, fast level changes. He has a really nice double leg. He is strong in the clinch. On top, Natividad isn’t super dangerous. He has good top control, but not great Jiu-Jitsu. In this fight, I don’t see him wanting to grapple. I have seen him taken down in fights himself and controlled by guys with 7-7 records. Natividad slows down a bit but has good cardio.
Natividad is making his UFC debut here on short notice. He looks decent on the feet and if this fight stays standing he might be live here. He could knock Kelleher out and he could also win a striking decision if he is in 3-round fight shape. He looks like he could have decent wrestling as well but the edge on the mat should go to Kelleher here and the cardio edge most likely as well. Kelleher isn’t a guy I’d personally want to lay over 2-1 so this is probably dog or pass for me on the betting line. Kelleher is the outright pick though but maybe wait and see if the line goes under -200 if you are looking to bet him.
This won’t be a fight I get much exposure to, but Natividad is the preferred play if I had to use one. He is cheap, and I think he is somewhat live here, but I don’t see a KO or sub happening, so it would probably need to be a close decision and that wouldn’t score too well. Kelleher is going to be priced out of my lineups most likely, but he does have a high pace and can finish this fight, so I won’t talk anybody off using him. If I am making 10 or less lineups I might just full fade this fight.
Winner – Brian Kelleher via Unanimous Decision
Michel Pereira $8,200 vs Zelim Imadaev $8,000
Michel Pereira
Age: 26
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: Team Demolidor
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 137
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -105
Michel Pereira is very athletic & has good movement. He has a solid jab & a very heavy straight-right hand. He has a very long reach & will lunge forward with straight-right hands. He will throw solid one-twos and likes to go to the body with a jab & then throwing the straight-right to the head. He will throw heavy hooks to the body. He will throw a lot of front kicks to the body & oblique kicks to the leg. He will do a lot of dancing & hand movements to lull opponents to sleep & then explode in with a flying kick, knee or punch combination. I have seen him do a back flip into a body kick into a straight-right hand combination. He will throw 360 roundhouse kicks. He has a decent spinning back kick to the head. His front knees to the body & head aren’t bad and overall the guy is an athletic, dangerous fighter. He leaves a lot to be desired in terms of defense. He holds his hands low & opponents with good boxing can land clean on him. In the pocket, he will brawl & rely on his chin to hold up. I don’t think he has a very good chin, & when opponents back him up towards the cage they can tee off on him. I have seen him crumble to shots that didn’t look that powerful against the cage. Opponents seem to be able to back him up & keep him against the cage at times, but he will throw kicks & superman punches off the cage to try to get off it. He can be a bit low output in between his blitz combinations. When he sees fighters are hurt, he is a finisher & will turn up the heat. He has 9 KO/TKO’s & has finished his last four wins by KO/TKO. He has only been finished by strikes one time.
Michel Pereira isn’t much of a grappler, but he uses the clinch effectively. He will close the distance with hooks or straight punches and grab the Muay Thai plum & land knees to the body & head. He doesn’t have good defense in the clinch & opponents can land big overhands over the top & uppercuts up the middle. I have seen him shoot singles & doubles & he got a double leg in his last match. His wrestling doesn’t look very good though. In top position, Pereira uses it more to take a break. He will just lay in opponent’s guards & try to land short hammerfists & punches. He will try crazy things such as back flip guard passes. I have even seen him drop an opponent against the cage, jump on the top of the cage & moonsault off it over his opponent as he stood up & then jumping side kicked him to the face. In his match with Connelly, he gassed out & then was dominated with grappling. Connelly was able to get in on his legs & put him on his back. When Connelly got top position, Pereira really struggled to do much of anything or get back to his feet. I have seen him hit with some big hammerfists in his guard & I feel an experienced grappler could dominate him on the ground. Pereira does have six submissions & has only has been submitted once. Pereira has finished 15 of his 21 wins. He is only 6-8 in decisions.
Zelim Imadeav
Age: 25
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 76”
Gym: Xtreme Coutures
From: Russia
UFC Record: 0-2
Fight Matrix: 345
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -115
Zelim is a wild striker with 8 KOs in 8 wins. He is very dynamic & uses a lot of flying and spinning attacks, and kicks. In his UFC debut his propensity to rely on spinning attacks got him taken down many times. He is very aggressive & likes to try to intimidate his opponents. There will be no glove touching in this one. Imadaev has nice inside, outside leg kicks, & big power in his punches. He throws a lot of wide hooks & jab, overhand rights or jab, right hooks. He has one punch knockout power in his left & right hook. He is open to be countered, but he trusts his chin & power & usually ends up hurting his opponents if they decide to exchange. He loads up on strikes & can be very obvious. Griffin was able to see his spinning attacks coming easily. He will throw a lot of flying knees to close the distance. He also does a good job of grabbing the head, pulling it down & jumping into a flying knee to try to finish his opponent. I have seen him taken down off the knee, but he is good at getting up & reversing to top position. He does a good job of feinting to create openings for spinning backfists & elbows. He can be pushed back & I feel fighters who can stay calm will be able to counter with tighter punches will hurt him. That’s what happened in his fight with Danny Roberts. He opened up in the pocket & got knocked out for the first time. He has 8 KO/TKO’s including a flying knee & spinning back elbow KO.
Zelim is not a wrestler even though he’s from Russia. He can be controlled against the fence & taken down. He will attack with good knees & elbows himself and does a decent job of framing on the head to get out of it. He can be taken down with body locks or when he gets too aggressive coming forward. Fighters can time takedowns off his knees and kicks. He was taken down off the spinning kicks he threw over & over vs Griffin. He is active on his back & immediately tries to create a scramble to get back to his feet or get into top position. He will dig a nice underhook from bottom in half guard to stand up. He is training at Xtreme Coutures so I’m sure he’s trying to address that issue. Against Griffin, he didn’t show great ability to stand up off bottom against a competent grappler. On top, he is aggressive with G&P & will try to finish the fight. He has been put in a tight guillotine and armbar but stays composed and can eventually power out of them. Imadaev was able to get a couple takedowns in his fight with Roberts. He is still very young in his career & only has fought one way. He is going to be aggressive, wild and go for the finish from the opening bell.
This is going to be a wild fight. Both guys throw some crazy strikes and they go for the kill. Either one could land a big shot and put the others’ lights out. It’s hard to trust either guy though and I don’t think this is a fight to bet because we don’t know how this fight will play out, but it should be close and a fun one. I have been going back and forth on this one personally, so I definitely wouldn’t lay juice on either and its dog or pass on the betting line for me. Right now, the lean is Imadaev, but I like Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision more than either guy straight up.
I am not sure how this plays out but either guy could get a KO and they are priced in the mid-range, so I want exposure to both guys. I don’t think this will be a super high paced fight but they both throw wild stuff and something heavy could crack. If this goes the distance I don’t know that either would make the optimal so it’s not a must have fight, but I do want to get this in half or more of my lineups and I lean Imadaev as the preferred play.
Winner – Zelim Imadaev via 2nd round (T)KO
Karol Rosa $8,500 vs Sijara Eubanks $7,700
Karol Rosa
Age: 25
Height: 5’5
Weight: 135
Reach: 67.5”
Gym: Paraná Vale Tudo
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 14
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -130
Karol Rosa was victorious in July getting an easy victory over Vanessa Melo. Rosa is on a 4-fight winning streak, she is 2-0 in the UFC, and at 25 years old steadily improving. This is a big opportunity for Rosa to get her name out there if she can defeat a former top 5, 125-fighter. Rosa is a little tank. She comes to throw down & lands almost 10 strikes per minute. Rosa is good at keeping her range & landing sharp, straight punches down the pipe. She has a really nice jab & one-two. She also throws heavy inside & outside low kicks. She likes throwing jab, overhand right to inside leg kick combinations. Rosa will throw a one-two followed by a left hook. She likes to throw this wide, looping right hand that dropped Lara Procopio. Rosa will throw some nice front kicks up the middle. Rosa was landing some nice elbows & jump knees to the body against Melo. She throws a huge amount of volume, wears opponents down and stays in their face. Rosa’s style of staying in an opponent’s face leaves her available for punishment herself. She doesn’t move her head much and is pretty flat footed. She can get hit in exchanges with clean shots. She tries to use her sharp counters to keep fighters hesitant to throw. Rosa is very durable though, and trains out of the same fight camp of Jessica Andrade. All the girls at that camp, Andrade, Rosa, Priscila Cachoeira, have amazing durability and toughness. She has never been finished by strikes.
Rosa has been submitted twice & on paper this may be a tough matchup. Rosa is actually pretty good on the ground though & can grind herself. Rosa will mix it up, and almost finished Vanessa Melo on the ground in her last fight. Rosa has good timing on her double legs and will grind on fighters against the cage. She hit a nice trip in the clinch on Melo. Rosa is very heavy in half guard. She landed some big elbows, punches & almost got Melo out of there. On bottom, Rosa is very good at never lying flat, and always looking to sweep. She has great reversals and is hard to hold down. When Rosa gets on top, she isn’t that dangerous. Rosa only has two submissions. In her fight with Pacheco, she was taken down a couple times in the clinch but got some takedowns of her own. The fight was at a very fast pace with a lot of scrambling and ultimately Rosa was tired, looking for a sloppy takedown against the cage, left her neck out there & got guillotined.
Sijara Eubanks
Age: 35
Height: 5’4
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Mark Henry Fight Team
From: Maryland
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 10
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +110
Sijara Eubanks will be looking to make it two in a row here. She defeated Sarah Moras her last time out in a dominant decision. Eubanks has been disappointing in the UFC and needs to string some wins together to get to where people expected her to be. At 35 years old, maybe she will never get there, we will have to wait and see. She was expected to face Macy Chiasson here, but Chiasson is now being replaced by another tough out in Karol Rosa. Eubanks has nice leg kicks & good one-twos. She will close the distance with hook & uppercut combinations. She likes to attack the body to close the distance into the combos. She has pretty decent head movement in the pocket & will throw long combinations. Eubanks also will throw dangerous head kicks. Eubanks is durable & has never been finished. Eubanks throws a lot of volume in the first round, but as the fight goes on she slows down and throws one at a time. Her movement becomes much more labored & she becomes more hittable. Eubanks has 3 KO/TKO’s.
Eubanks is a Jiu-Jitsu black belt & a good grappler. She has a good double leg and good timing on her entries. She does a good job of chain wrestling and will use the double to drive her opponents against the cage and then go for a single or change levels and go up top for a body lock. Her single leg from the outside is her most effective takedown. She can shoot from too far out at times though because she is uncomfortable with the striking. She is very heavy on top and throws hard, heavy elbows. When she takes opponents down, she does a good job of staying on top & winning the round. Eubanks has poor cardio, and really slows down in round three which has cost her a couple of fights. Eubanks only has one submission herself and isn’t a big submission threat.
I like Rosa in this one. She is almost 10 years younger and she is the more active and dangerous striker of the two. Sijara probably has the edge on the ground here but I don’t know that she can get it there, and Rosa is probably more likely to get up than Eubanks is to submit her. I do think this fight mainly plays out on the feet though and I see Rosa landing the harder shots and more volume to get her hand raised in a decision.
Karol Rosa has put up two big scores with her volume and I could see it again here. This is her toughest fight and won’t be as easy to land quite as much, but she is only $8.5k so I do want to be overweight and I like her a good bit for cash games as well. I think Eubanks is in play as well because she should have more volume than normal due to the pressure of Rosa and she is live for a submission as well. I won’t have much Eubanks, but I won’t X her out of my player pool either.
Winner – Karol Rosa via Unanimous Decision
Alonzo Menifield $8,300 vs Ovince Saint Preux $7,900
Alonzo Menifield
Age: 32
Height: 6’0
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix:
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -130
Alonzo Menifield is an explosive, powerful athlete, who is a former pro football player. He is very fast and throws with bad intentions. Menifield always starts very quickly and tries to take opponents out right away. He has a nice jab and a good one-two. He likes to close the distance with a leaping left hook, and it’s very powerful. He will throw left hook, overhand right combinations. Menifield has dangerous, wild hooks inside. He will throw with 100% power. Menifield has nice kicks and will throw hard to the legs, body & head. He has good speed on his kicks. Menifield has good forward pressure and takes advantage when fighters make mistakes. He is improving with his composure, but still can swing big and wide at times. In his last fight, he almost finished Devin Clark in round one & gassed himself out going for it. I’ve seen him rocked and hit with counters just because he’s throwing so hard. He needs to be more composed in this fight and not allow St. Preux to get in on his legs. Menifield has finished 8 of 9 wins via KO/TKO & and is a knockout artist. He has a good chin & is a sturdy, durable fighter.
Menifield is a big, strong, athletic, explosive guy. This makes him a half decent offensive grappler. He has good double legs. When he gets in on opponent’s legs, he is extremely explosive & and it’s hard to stop him from taking them down. In the clinch, he is strong and will land knees, and look for singles & doubles. He can land nasty, single leg slams and really manhandle opponents. He does a great job of taking the back very quickly after takedowns and has a good rear naked choke. He also is very heavy on top & has nasty elbows & ground & pound. If he drops an opponent, he will pounce and is great at finishing with ground and pound. A large majority of his wins come that way. His last two wins he viciously put Vinicius Moreira & Paul Craig unconscious with punches from top position. Menifield’s defensive grappling is not the best. He throws shots full power, planting hard & if opponents can time that and shoot, they will likely get him down. Daniel Jolly was able to take him down a couple times, once with a double leg and once with a body lock. Against the cage, Menifield also allowed Moreira who is low level get in deep on a body lock and control him against the fence. He showed good takedown defense, but Moreira isn’t the explosive athlete St. Preux is. In his fight with Clark, he stuffed almost all the takedowns, but was just held against the cage. He only was taken down 1 time in that fight. Menifield is not a submission threat with just one in his career.
Ovince St Preux
Age: 37
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 80”
Gym: Knoxville Martial Arts
From: Tennessee
UFC Record: 12-9
Fight Matrix: 26
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +110
OSP is long and rangy with a very odd striking style. He has his hands down and will attack from odd angles with unorthodox strikes. He will square up with his opponents a lot which is usually not technically sound, but it gives him knockout power from both sides and he makes it work. He will explode forward with a nice straight-left hand. Saint Preux has a nice, long, right hook. His straight punches blitzes are very fast. Saint Preux has nasty round kicks to the body & head and good snap kicks. He will throw front leg sidekicks to the body. Sometimes he can look super sloppy. He will really overextend & throw himself off balance. He struggles with fighters who use movement & kicks. He also doesn’t throw many combinations and will just go for one shot kill shots. The issue with Saint Preux’s striking style is he’s lost his reflexes. He still holds his hands low & instead of slipping & ripping or beating opponents to the punch, he is getting tagged clean. Saint Preux has been dropped & hurt in a lot of recent fights. It looks like his speed with his offensive strikes has gone along with some confidence & durability. He will go second a lot, & after being hit go into a defensive shell. He was essentially knocked out at the bell vs Dominick Reyes & took some bombs from Nikita Krylov & Oleksiejczuk. Against Krylov, Saint Preux barely landed any strikes whatsoever on the feet & looked stuck in quicksand compared to Krylov. OSP is still very dangerous himself & if he beats fighters, he’s usually finishing them. He has 11 career KO/TKO’s including 4 in the UFC.
Saint Preux is a good grappler and has relied much more on that in recent fights. He is a solid wrestler and very physical. He has good double leg takedowns and strong body locks. Saint Preux can panic wrestle at times & leave his head inside to be guillotined. He was put to sleep by Ilir Latifi with a guillotine. He is good in the clinch and can control fighters against the fence. He has good knees to the body, short punches and elbows. He can leave too much space in the clinch & get hit with big punches & elbows himself. On top, OSP is once again very unorthodox. He has a calf slicer and 4 Von Flue chokes. He got yet another in his last fight. He was able to take down Krylov in round one of his rematch and take the mount. Saint Preux has excellent arm locks. He got a straight armbar on Tyson Pedro in his last win. Saint Preux cares more about getting the submission than position & fighters are able to scramble back to their feet on him if they avoid the sub. His takedown defense is very good. He is super hard to takedown in space and does a great job of getting his back to the fence where he has great takedown defense. OSP has great wrist control and will get very wide making it hard for fighters to clamp their hands together. He will reverse takedowns with switches & the whizzer & is very aggressive in top position. He defended 7 out of 8 of Corey Anderson’s takedowns, and eventually finished him with a head kick. If he does get taken down, he has a great get-up game, and is super hard to hold down. When fighters can cement position on him, he has issues though. He allows opponents to move to dominant positions & looked to quit when taken down in his last match. He was almost immediately mounted, gave his back & was submitted by rear naked choke. OSP was rear naked choked by Glover Teixeira as well. Saint Preux does have 6 UFC submissions & 8 overall in his career. Saint Preux has been submitted 3 times. All OSP’s fights are entertaining & he is a kill or be killed fighter. In 21 UFC fights he has gone to decision just 7 times. I will say in his last fight he didn’t have that same killer at HW. Saint Preux has finished 10 of his 12 UFC wins.
Menifield is one of the scarier strikers in the division and can knock anybody out with the right shot. However, he needs that KO to come in round 1 or else he doesn’t have the cardio or power to win the last half of a fight. I think if OSP weathers the early storm he will win this fight. He could get a KO of his own early, but if he survives the big shots from Menifield in round 1, I think he finishes the fight in round 2 or round 3.
This is more so dog or pass for me on the betting line, but on DK, it’s kind of the other way around. Menifield is the one with 100+ potential here and I want to have a good amount of exposure to him in case that happens. If OSP wins this fight it is probably later in the fight and maybe even a decision. I don’t see a big ceiling from him, so he isn’t a must play, but he is a dog that I like so I want some exposure to him as well. I will probably be about 30-40% on Menifield here and then maybe 25% OSP. I want to have a good number of lineups without this fight too because they could both gas and this could be a slop fest for the last half of the fight.
Winner – Ovince St. Preux via 2nd round Submission
Alistair Overeem $8,800 vs Augusto Sakai $7,400
Alistair Overeem
Age: 40
Height: 6’4
Weight: 234
Reach: 80”
Gym: Team Elevation
From: Netherlands
UFC Record: 11-7
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak W1
Betting Odds: -150
The legend Alistair Overeem is looking to make one last run. He has won four out of his last five fights & looked great doing it. He was able to get another signature win taking out Walt Harris in his last fight. Overeem is an amazing striker, and definitely will be the most skilled fighter Sakai has ever faced. I expect Overeem to be defensive standing. He will be looking to counter punch and throw a lot of fakes and feints trying to lure his opponents in and potshot him. He has a nasty straight-right hand and is still very quick and fluid with both his hands and his kicks. He has a nice counter left hook and can land it while angling off. He has very nice leg kicks and will throw the occasional hard body kick. Overeem will also get creative and throw front kicks to the face or jumping kicks like he landed on Arlovski. Alistair has struggled with people with longer or similar reach to him because I think he feels uncomfortable they can hit him at the same distance he can hit them. He has UFC losses to Antonio Silva, Travis Browne, Ben Rothwell, Stipe Miocic, Francis Ngannou, and Curtis Blaydes. All those guys have as long of a reach or longer reach than Alistair. Sakai has a 77” reach so it is a worry he lands a cross or haymaker over the top & puts Overeem on wobbly legs or finishes him. Overeem needs to be vigilant at all times & not brawl in this fight. Overeem is a knockout artist, but also has well documented chin problems. He has 22 KO/TKO’s but been finished himself 14 times himself with strikes. Overeem is aware his chin is gone, and he tends to be very careful in the octagon nowadays and he needs to do that here.
Overeem is an underrated grappler, and he has gotten more grappling centric later in his career. When fighters close the distance on him, he no longer brawls and instead will clinch up and try to get double underhooks where he is nasty. He has devastating knees to the body and head and has finished multiple fighters with clinch knees. His takedown defense is very good, and he is also very good on top. He showed good takedowns against the cage in his last match, as well as entries into the clinch. He has strong ground & pound and can control fighters and not let them up. The hammerfists he used to finish Sergey Pavlovich were scary. The finish of Harris on the ground was very clinical also. He trapped the wrist from the wrestling ride position and pounded Harris out. He has a very good guillotine. He isn’t great off his back, and while he is hard to submit, he has been finished by Miocic and Blaydes with G&P. Overeem slows a bit in round 3, but overall, he has good cardio for a HW.
Augusto Sakai
Age: 29
Height: 6’4
Weight: 260
Reach: 77”
Gym: Gile Ribeiro Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 4-0
Fight Matrix: 13
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: +130
Augusto Sakai is getting a big step up in competition after a perfect 4-0 start to his UFC career. Sakai has done well in the UFC but has not Faced anyone at the level of the Overeem. Two of his wins were also split decisions, so he could easily be 2-2. Sakai is a forward pressure striker on the feet. He isn’t the fastest guy & fighters who can stick & move well will give him fights in my opinion. He relies on his constant forward pressure to slow guys down. He tries to cut opponents off, back them towards the cage & make it small. When he can get fighters’ backs near the fence, he will close the distance with combinations. At range, he can be low volume. He will throw some leg kicks and front kicks to the legs & body. He has a nice jab and a good one-two. He will wing some powerful hooks & overhand rights. He is deceptively athletic & will close the distance with some flying knees to the body or front kicks to the face when opponent’s backs are against the cage. He usually finishes fighters with attrition & isn’t a one punch KO guy. He fights at a slow, deliberate pace, but when he has an opponent hurt he can pick it up & throw long combinations to try to finish. Sakai does have 10 KO/TKO’s & is going to be the much more durable fighter. That’s one of his big advantages in the fight. He will be able to eat shots & continue to come forward & if Overeem can’t take him down, he may gas him out. Sakai has never been finished.
Sakai isn’t a grappler and will rarely try to wrestle. His takedown defense isn’t bad. He will use underhooks to deny takedown shots & is very strong. Against the cage, he was taken down by Kongo with singles & doubles. He was able to use the cage to stand back up but was tired. In his fight with Blagoy Ivanov, he was taken down, controlled & then held the cage to avoid another takedown in the third. Sakai is decent in the clinch. He is heavy & will grab the Thai plum, and lean his weight on his opponents while slamming knees into the body & head. If he can drop an opponent & get on top, he is very heavy on top. He will throw nice elbows, and it’s hard to move from under him. He finished Chase Sherman with ground & pound. Off his back, he has good get-ups against the cage. In space he doesn’t look to have great get-ups & can be controlled later in the fight. I haven’t really seen how Sakai does against a more aggressive passer on top. When he was taken down by Kongo, Kongo was just kind of resting inside Sakai’s full guard. Sakai isn’t dangerous with submissions off his back or on top. He has zero career submissions.
Overeem is the much better all-around fighter and he has 47 more fights than Sakai. Skill and cardio wise there aren’t many worries for Overeem in this fight. Overeem’s durability at 40-years-old is the real issue here and he has been (T)KO’d 14 times in his professional career. Sakai has 25-minutes to land that big KO punch here, too, so that is his shot. If he doesn’t get it, then Overeem should win this fight and he can win by submission, KO, or decision.
This is a top 3 fight to target because of the 5-rounds. Sakai is in play for a KO in any round, but even with 5-rounds he might not be on the optimal in a decision win. Overeem can land takedowns, so I think he could be on the optimal in a decision, but I think this will be a slower paced fight on the feet so it’s not an all-in fight. Overeem is the preferred play though because he has more ways to win and score well. I won’t have much Sakai, but the KO could come in round 1 and break the slate and that will burn me hard if I do go underweight. Not against him being a core play if you see the KO coming, I will just be overweight to Reem here and just have some hedge LUs with Sakai.
Winner – Alistair Overeem via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown & be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building & I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend & enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks & predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice & fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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