BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC Vegas 11 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
This weekend, we have a 14-fight card at the UFC Apex in Vegas that will have no fans in attendance due to the pandemic. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $300k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games & look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience & you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player & it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups & 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights, & hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Tyson Nam $8,600 vs Jerome Rivera $7,600
Tyson Nam
Age: 36
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Sports Lab
From: Oregon
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 57
Last Fought: 3 Months Ago
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -170
In this matchup, obviously Nam is the veteran. He has 30 pro fights, and Rivera has never faced anyone at his level before. On the contrary Nam has faced the best of the best. Even in the UFC where Nam is just 1-2, his two losses came against top 10 fighters. Since moving down to FLW Nam is 6-3-1 in his career and has only lost to three guys who are arguably in the top fifteen. Kai Kara-France, Sergio Pettis, and Zhalgas Zhumagulov. Rivera has fought some UFC vets like Brandon Royval and Roberto Sanchez, but he lost both bouts. Nam is a pressure fighter on the feet. He is going to want to walk Rivera down, make the cage small and land one of those concussive hooks. Nam has a nice jab that he will double and triple up on to find his range. He will rip the body then go up to the head with hook combinations. Nam has nice body & head kicks as well. He has been pro for 14 years now & isn’t as fast as he once was. Nam likes to load up as well & will throw a couple punch combos, but he isn’t a quick combinations guy with the hands. He is looking to load up & get the one punch knockout. He has even been quoted saying he throws for KO’s. Nam can be low volume though & I feel he has to throw more volume in this fight to win. Nam was basically dominated by Sergio Pettis never getting a beat on him in a frustrating performance. Nam is very durable, but he couldn’t get his own damage off much in that one. Nam has been finished three times by strikes. Nam has 11 KO/TKO’s. He is the most dangerous in round one as well with 8 in round one.
Tyson Nam is a big guy for 125 & will try to bully opponents. He likes to close the distance into the single collar clinch & hit trips or push opponents to the cage & work from there. Nam has very strong takedown defense. He will dig underhooks & disengage. He will land shots on the break that discourage takedown attempts. It’s hard to get in on his hips. Nam has nice body lock takedowns. Nam likes to stand up in opponent’s guards and rain down big shots. Nam is not a submission guy with only one in his career. He has never been submitted. Nam has good cardio & will have a similar pace all three rounds. Nam can get caught looking for the one shot & get out volumed, due to that he is 7-7 in decisions.
Jerome Rivera
Age: 25
Height: 5’10
Weight: 125
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Lutrell/Yee MMA & Fitness
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 47
Last Fought: 1 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +150
Jerome Rivera is a pressure fighter on the feet. He throws a lot more volume than Nam, but I imagine he will want to take this fight to the ground. Rivera stands tall & tries to stay light on his feet so he can kick it all times. Rivera doesn’t really have very good hands. He will skip in with jabs and has a decent one-two. Rivera doesn’t have very quick hands though, and his chin is high. He also holds his hands low. Rivera throws a lot of front kicks up the middle. His main objective is to walk fighters down to the cage and shoot in once they are there. He has gotten pretty dangerous in the clinch with his Muay Thai. Rivera only has one finish by strikes in his career.
Jerome Rivera is an opportunistic submission artist. His wrestling isn’t the best, but he will look for doubles and body locks against the cage. He will hold guys against the cage with good double underhooks. Rivera likes to throw a jab or a straight and immediately level change after the punch. Rivera will catch submissions in scrambles. He got taken down off a high kick in his fight with Kendrick Latchman, but immediately locked in a triangle and finished the fight. Rivera was able to drop Luis Rodriguez with a low kick, and then jump on his back in round one. Rodriguez was able to scramble with Rivera as well though, reversing and getting on top of Rivera for periods of time in the fight, as well as taking him down. Rivera will attack off his back with armbars, triangles & he’s hard to hold down. His cardio is really good & he tries to break fighters & then submit them. Rivera has seven submission victories. He was submitted and dominated on the mat by Roberto Sanchez. This is a big step up for Rivera, but he has a lot to gain with a win.
Rivera got a win on the Contender Series to “earn” this UFC debut, but he clearly lost that fight to me and this is a much tougher matchup for him against Nam. Rivera is going to look for takedowns constantly here because he will be at a huge disadvantage on the feet. If he can get takedowns then he can use top control to try and win rounds or go for a submission, which is probably the more likely path. Nam should be too experienced to let Rivera have much success on the ground and I think he can knock Rivera out on the feet.
Nam is my preferred DraftKings play and I do think a TKO is very in play for him here. We are going to need the TKO at his price though because it is hard to imagine Nam having the volume to score over 10x at $8.6k, and he could spend time on his back where he isn’t scoring any points. I love my curtain jerkers though so I need some exposure to this fight and Rivera is not a guy I want to invest in, so Nam will be where I get that exposure. Rivera will be a full fade with 20 or less lineups but I think if he wins this fight it would come from a submission so he is a decent GPP play for that reason, I just don’t see it happening. With 50 lineups, I would guess he makes 1-3 for me where Nam is a guy that I wouldn’t mind in 15-20%.
Winner – Tyson Nam via 2nd round (T)KO
TJ Laramie $9,200 vs Darrick Minner $7,000
T.J Laramie
Age: 22
Height: 5’6
Weight: 145
Reach: 66”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Canada
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 84
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -300
TJ “The Truth” Laramie is only 22 years old but has been fighting pro MMA for over 5 years. Laramie won the PFC FW championship in his last fight and has also previously claimed the FW belt in the TKO promotion. Laramie has defeated guys like Charles Jourdain who is already in the UFC. Laramie looked great in his Dana White Contender Series fight also getting a first round finish. Tj Laramie trains with Cody Stamann & you can see it in the way he fights. He has the same body type, uses a lot of feints, double jabs, and hooks. Stamann has progressed further in his striking and throws more kicks, feints and strikes more comfortably over 3 rounds. Laramie is more of a pure wrestler & wants to get on top, stay on top and win the fight that way. His striking defensively is not that great & he has been TKO’d twice. In this fight I do feel he should be able to compete on the feet.
Laramie is a good wrestler with great timing on his double legs. He has heavy top pressure, squares his hips well to defend submissions, good ground & pound and controls well on top. Laramie will finish fights in the clinch or on the ground with ground and pound. He will stay heavy on top and smash away. He landed some big ground & pound in his last fight that hurt his opponent’s ribs and ended the fight. Laramie isn’t a big submission guy. He has fought some good Jiu-Jitsu fighters and defended subs well over three rounds. Laramie has finished 9 out of 12 wins. He has fought five rounds has solid cardio & can go hard for the full 15-minutes.
Darrick Minner
Age: 30
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 71”
Gym: Disorderly Conduct
From: Nebraska
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 133
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +250
Minner is a boxer/wrestler who throws bombs. He isn’t overly technical on the feet but has power and commits 100% to his strikes. Minner will wing a clubbing overhand that definitely has power. I have seen him drop opponents with it. Minner will close the distance with wild hooks and uppercuts, but really uses that to get in on the legs. Minner will throw a lot of kicks from the outside, including front kicks up the middle, round kicks to the body & head, and is decent while moving in & out. He will sometimes load up with the kicks & can be countered. Minner will also throw lead uppercuts that leave him very exposed. Minner gets really sloppy after round one, and his striking just becomes winging hooks. He will run into punches and make the impact worse. When Minner hurts opponents, he isn’t looking for the finish by strikes, but instead he will go into submission mode. Minner has just one career KO. Minner has been finished by strikes twice but is very durable the times he’s been finished were with ground & pound, but he wasn’t out. He will get hurt but recovers quickly. Minner isn’t a great striker, but he commits & it opens up his wrestling.
Darrick Minner is a strong grappler who is extremely opportunistic and aggressive. He will sacrifice position for submission every time with no regrets. Minner is good at using big punches to set up the entry for his double leg. He has a very nice single also. When he takes opponents down, he is immediately looking rain down ground & pound, and starts hunting the neck. Minner is good at taking the back & will lock in rear naked chokes in transition which can catch guys by surprise. Minner will dive on front chokes. His guillotine is very slick & he has a ton of guillotine finishes. Minner can sometimes get himself in trouble due to hunting for the sub. He will attack knee bars & get mounted, or dive on a guillotine which puts him on bottom. Minner has decent submission defense but can be subbed. He also will stay in bad positions & turtle up which allows fighters to pound him out. Minner gets sloppy inside opponent’s guards & can get submitted with triangles and armbars. Minner can be taken down himself, and his game off his back is not very good. He doesn’t get-up, and isn’t a huge submission threat off his back, but he did recently get a triangle choke, and will use the guillotine to stand up. Minner has been submitted seven times in his career. His style is boom or bust. He has 21 submissions of his own. Minner has grit & heart, but his cardio isn’t the best. He will slow down a lot after round one.
This should be a fast paced, grappling-heavy fight. Minner is very dangerous in round 1 and if he wins it will likely come from an early finish. Laramie is a solid prospect who just got signed off the Contender Series. Laramie is the better striker and wrestler though and he will be the fresher fighter in rounds 2 and 3. I would expect him to win those rounds if this goes to the scorecards but I think he would more likely finish in the 2nd half of the fight by submission or TKO. This could be a good live betting spot on Laramie after round 1 if Minner wins that first round.
This is a fight I want exposure to both sides on. Minner likely breaks the slate if he gets a win here because I think that would be a 1st round submission if he wins. He comes out hot and he is good in round 1. He could take advantage of a young guy like Laramie here and hand him that veteran submission loss. I need exposure to Minner for that reason. However, if he doesn’t get that 1st round finish, I think Laramie ends up getting a finish of his own, and maybe he wins that first round as well. I want Laramie exposure as well and this is a fight I would expect to take place more so on the mat than on the feet. Laramie is in play in all formats, but I prefer GPPs because he could lose in round 1 and that would kill cash games.
Winner – TJ Laramie via 2nd round (T)KO
Andre Ewell $8,800 vs Irwin Rivera $7,400
Andre Ewell
Age: 32
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 75”
Gym: Apex MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 56
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -220
Andre Ewell is an athletic guy & a slick, southpaw striker. Ewell has the same game plan every fight. He tries to stay long, touch with the jab, and look for his one-two. His straight-left hand is a piston & very powerful. He is always coiled and ready to let it go like a spring. He is good at changing the target and attacking the body with the jabs & the one-two also. He will rip the body with powerful hooks. Ewell has a nice right hook. He throws hard, lead uppercuts. He has fast hands & throws punches in bunches inside. He holds his hands low & wants opponents to throw at him, so he can pull counter. He is good at returning right away with punches after opponents hit him. Ewell will have a seven-inch reach advantage in this fight which is huge for someone with his style. Ewell was throwing some nice front knees to the body against Jonathan Martinez. He even threw a couple of nice flying knees. Ewell isn’t a kicker on the feet and is predominately a boxer. Ewell is susceptible to low kicks & front kicks to the body. Both Marlon Vera & Jonathan Martinez hurt & slowed him down badly. Ewell has slowed down in the third round of almost all his UFC fights. Ewell is super tough though and has a great chin. He has only been finished by strikes one time, but he has been hurt to the body in his last two fights.
Andre Ewell is not an offensive grappler. Ewell has only one takedown in his UFC career. Ewell got beat up in the clinch against Vera but stayed tough and Vera is a beast there. Ewell is a purple belt in Jiu-Jitsu & isn’t bad on the mat. He is improving his takedown defense as well. Ewell is not easy to take down. He has a nice sprawl & good front chokes he uses to counter takedown attempts. He has hit a couple guillotines and darces in his career. When Ewell is taken down, he doesn’t have great get-ups, but his guard is not bad. He doesn’t attack much, but it’s hard to pass. Ewell hasn’t spent much time on top in his UFC career. He did show good submission defense surviving a standing arm triangle attempt from Vera & rode out the round on top. Ewell has been finished on the ground in both of his UFC losses. He has been submitted three times. Ewell has questionable cardio but is the veteran in this matchup.
Irwin Rivera
Age: 31
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Blackzillians
From: Florida
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 127
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +180
Irwin Rivera is a fun fighter to watch. He is an athletic, southpaw striker with a lot of fun techniques to watch. Rivera is a quick, explosive game guy. He has pretty good in & out movement on the outside, and is very quick darting in. Rivera usually goes first with kicks or flying attacks. He has decent low leg kicks, and very good round kicks to the body with both legs. His rear leg liver kick is vicious and has finished multiple fights for him. He needs to be looking for it early and often in this matchup. Rivera will go high with the kicks as well. Rivera loves to go airborne. He will throw a ton of superman punches, flying kicks, and flying knees. Rivera will come forward with some very wide, wild hooks & uppercuts. He likes to feint, draw out a counter and throw a looping overhand left. Rivera is good at sneaking in punches to the body in combinations. In his last fight, Rivera really struggled to close that gap. Chikadze just picked him off with knees, kicks, good movement, and really busted Rivera up. Rivera showed some extreme toughness & durability never taking a step back in the fight. He is low volume, and his striking style isn’t necessarily the most technical. Rivera tends to be losing a lot of his recent fights early, and then finds late finishes. He is solid and stays in the fight, wearing on his opponents and ultimately taking them out. In Titan FC I feel he would have lost his last two fights if they were three round fights. I had both Matt Wagy, and Danny Sabatello up on the score cards after three rounds, but Rivera finished both in the fourth. Rivera is a powerful guy & can finish fights. He has five KO/TKO’s. Rivera has been put down with punches just one time in his career. Rivera should be improving his grappling. He is training at the combat club closely with fighters like Herbert & Gilbert Burns. Rivera’s wrestling defensively is not very good. He can be taken down and controlled on the mat. He doesn’t threaten with submissions and is very stagnant. He just waits for a time to explode back to his feet. I have seen him controlled for large portions of rounds, and never return back to his feet. Rivera is decent in scrambles. Offensively, Rivera does have a good double leg takedown. He times it well, and it’s a pretty fast shot. He doesn’t have the greatest control when he gets guys down. The takedown does help Rivera, because they disguise his body punches, and he’s decent at catching guys off the breaks. Rivera is going to need to have his wrestling defense on point in this fight and can’t allow himself to get too far behind early. This being his third UFC fight, and it being in the Covid era already should help give him a bit of an advantage here.
This should be a 15-minute striking match and I’d be a bit surprised to see either of these guys get a finish. Ewell should have all the striking advantages though aside from maybe one-shot leap in power shots which Rivera likes to throw every now and then. If those big shots rock Ewell, then that can change rounds, but Ewell should be the one landing more volume and he is the more technical and longer striker of the two.
To make this short and sweet, this is a full fade for me. Neither of these guys will come close to making my lineups if I have 20 or less. Even with 50 I might full fade. Ewell would be the preferred play though because I think he wins clearly, I just don’t know that he would even score 70-points in that win if it is a decision, so I am not interested.
Winner – Andre Ewell via Unanimous Decision
Journey Newson $8,400 vs Randy Costa $7,800
Journey Newson
Age: 31
Height: 5’5
Weight: 135
Reach: 67.5”
Gym: Impact Jiu-Jitsu
From: Oregon
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 195
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: 1NC
Betting Odds: -140
Journey Newson is one of the smallest BWs on the roster, but he packs a punch. Standing at 5’5 almost all his opponents tower over him, but he still holds a record of 9-2. On the feet, he is awkward but dangerous. Newson holds his hands low, but he’s very quick, moves around a lot and has one punch knockout power. Newson is pretty basic and only has a few attacks he really goes to. He likes to chop opponent’s legs with low kicks and has a good, lead left hook. He throws nice front leg sidekicks. Newson’s most dangerous weapon is his right hand. He sets it up well and is always looking to shoot the straight or overhand right to the head and sleep fighters. He likes to dart into range with the right hook. It’s a counter style & fairly low output, but it is effective. He catches a lot of guys & KO’s them, and makes a lot of fighters hesitant. Newson at times can blitz in wild and run into things. We saw him do this & get dropped by a spinning back elbow against Ricardo Ramos. Newson has an excellent chin & heart though and won’t go away. He has good head movement also & is a hard guy to hit. He was finished just one time in his career by strikes in 2016. Newson got another first round knockout in his last fight even though it isn’t officially on his record. With that one included, Newson has four career KO/TKO’s. He has knocked out four of his last six opponents.
Journey Newson is a solid grappler. He is short, compact, hard to take down, and even harder to hold down. He has a really good guillotine he uses to counter takedown attempts. He was able to get close on that guillotine against Ramos. Newson showed great scrambling ability and submission defense vs Ramos as well. Ramos who is a legit black belt had Newson’s back in the first round, and Newson was able to quickly scramble to top position. Off his back, Newson’s guard is hard to pass also. His offensive wrestling isn’t bad either. He has good level changes & finishes doubles well. Newson really likes the single leg. He will use it to drive fighters to the fence and chain wrestle. Once he’s on top, he has good control & floats well on top. He isn’t a big ground & pound or Jiu-Jitsu threat on top, but he can ride fighters out. He does have a nice guillotine he will look for in the mount. Newson has three career submissions. He has never been submitted. His cardio is solid. He did slow a bit in round three vs Ramos but pushed hard and that fight was on short notice.
Randy Costa
Age: 26
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 73”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Massachusetts
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 459
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +120
On the feet, Randy Costa is a freak. He is a bad dude. He has a kill or be killed style and is extremely fun to watch. Costa is extremely aggressive & fast. He has fluid in & out movement, and a lot of power. Costa will constantly switch stances giving different angles, and kind of has an odd striking style. It’s hard to read & time. Costa has a nice, snappy jab. He will double and triple up on jabs and uses it to start combinations very well. He will throw jab, hook or overhand combinations. He throws a double jab, right hook to head kick. He will throw double jab, uppercut, right hook. Costa has nice lead & pull counter straight from both stances. Costa will look to land the check left hook counter backing up. He is good at slipping shots with head movement & countering with combinations. He is always looking to throw head kicks mid combination. Costa has very nice kicks. He will throw some nice round & front kicks to the body, and dangerous head kicks. Costa throws head kicks in combination. He has nasty round kicks with both legs and good question mark kicks. Costa will work the body against the fence & has finished fights with body shots. Costa in his last fight was just amazing. He was landing his straight-right hand like a piston, looked super-fast, explosive and blew Boston Salmon out the water. You can see how truly dangerous he is inside. He will throw head kicks & flying knees out of nowhere. That same craziness does leave Costa open himself. He can be spastic with his movements and looked uncomfortable in the pocket vs Brandon Davis. He was throwing a lot of shots wide, kicks too close & was very hittable. He landed some absolute bombs on Davis and Davis was still there which I’m not sure he was used to. It didn’t look like he learned much from that though because he had the same crazy man style in his last fight. Costa’s chin looked a bit questionable vs Davis. He was hurt multiple times & ultimately it led to the finish. Costa stood heavy on his lead leg in that match & got it chewed up a bit. Costa is definitely dangerous & has power. He has finished all 5 of his wins via first round KO/TKO.
Randy Costa is not an offensive grappler. Costa will use the clinch to slow things down if he’s getting blitzed but doesn’t really look for takedowns. Costa will look for knees to the body & head in the Thai plum. He did look for a takedown in his last match but was denied easily. Costa’s takedown defense needs a little work. He allows opponents to get in on his legs & get him against the cage. Costa was taken down on the regional scene with a double leg but was able to defend the takedowns of Davis against the cage. When Costa got hurt in his match with Davis, he panic wrestled & was submitted. He allowed Davis to snap him down, circle to the back, and get a no hooks rear naked choke on him. This was the first loss of Costa’s career. Costa did show solid cardio early in round 2 still having speed & explosion.
Costa is the greener fighter of the two, but this is a matchup that could favor him since it should stay on the feet. Newson looks like the more powerful striker with the one-shot KO power, and Costa looks to be the guy who will come out throwing wild and with more volume. Maybe that wild style gets him knocked out with a counter punch, but if this goes to the scorecards, I would favor Costa on volume. Costa is also live for a KO and he is a solid striker, especially early because all his wins are in round 1. This is tough to call but I’d rather take a shot on the dog than lay the juice on the favorite, so Costa is the pick.
Costa is my preferred play on DK, and he is a guy I probably want to go overweight on. All his wins are in the 1st round and that is in play again here. That could break the slate as an underdog if he pulls it off and I am picking him to get it. It’s hard to trust him with too much money though so he won’t be a core play, I will just try to get more exposure than I project the field to have. Newson is in play for GPPs as well and he could get a KO in any round. He could also look for takedowns here and I don’t see a lot of people being on him. I won’t have much Newson, if any with 20 lineups, but I won’t X him out of my player pool.
Winner – Randy Costa via 1st round (T)KO
Jessica Rose-Clark $8,900 vs Sarah Alpar $7,300
Jessica Rose Clark
Age: 32
Height: 5’5
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: CSA Gym
From: Australia
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: Nr
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -225
Jessica Rose-Clark has lost back to back fights & is in danger of losing her job. She started her UFC career strong with two wins but has lost her last two. Clark hasn’t gotten a win since January of 2018, so it’s been a while. She has a high guard and does a good job of parrying and hand fighting. She isn’t the fleetest of foot but is getting faster and more explosive. She cuts the cage off well and throws nice leg kicks. The leg kick will be an important thing for Clark on the feet. Clark has a nice straight-right and closes the distance with good punch combinations. She has a nice step-in knee. She will throw hard body & head kicks. Clark’s boxing defense isn’t good. She will close distance with her hands low & walk into punches. She got stunned hard by punches vs Jessica Eye, and was boxed up by Kinziad. Clark has 2 KO/TKO’s and never been finished with strikes.
Jessica-Rose Clark is a very strong fighter. She is good in the clinch and will go for body lock takedowns. She will land hard knees to the body and head. She likes to get in half guard and control top position while looking for the arm triangle. She does a good job of controlling position and winning the round. She doesn’t do very much with the top position in most fights. She did pull guard and went for a leg lock and then transitioned into a double leg against Paige VanZant, and then later in the round got shook off the back and immediately locked in a tight triangle. Clark has two career submissions, but I doubt she gets one here. Clark seemed to gas out in her last fight. It looks like she is in great shape for this fight though.
Sarah Alpar
Age: 29
Height: 5’4
Weight: 135
Reach: 63”
Gym: American Elite MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 19
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +185
Sarah Alpar is also coming off a long layoff. She hasn’t fought since her win on DWCS a little over a year ago. Alpar has won three consecutive fights, and five out of six. Alpar is a good wrestler & a dog. She isn’t great on the feet, but she pressures well & is super tough. Alpar is a southpaw. She likes to pressure forward and throw inside, outside low kicks. Alpar will look for the right hook & overhand right. Alpar’s striking is very sloppy & rudimentary overall though. She looks like she has some heavy hands, but just swings a bit wild. Alpar can throw combinations wildly from out of range and get countered and tagged. She tends to do this when she has her opponents against the fence. When Alpar fought Carina Damm, she was dropped twice in the first round. Alpar will try to use some head movement but is very hittable. She does have a great chin though & is super tough and durable. Alpar has two KO/TKO’s and has never been finished by strikes.
Sarah Alpar is a strong wrestler. She was a good high school wrestler who went on to wrestle in college at Oklahoma City University. Alpar isn’t shy about what she wants to do in there. She is immediately in her opponent’s face and looking for the single leg. The single is her go to takedown. Alpar will back fighters up & control them against the fence also. From there she will chain wrestle and look for takedowns off the cage. Alpar used a single leg to take the back in round one against Shanna Young. In the second, she got a body lock, took the back again and finished with a rear naked choke. On top, Alpar is not super dangerous. She likes to just stay on top and control. She will stay heavy in half guard and look to slow cook opponents while hunting the head and arm. Alpar will progress to mount & the back, but her transitions can be a little sloppy. I have seen Alpar fall off the back & be bucked and rolled from mount. Alpar has been submitted twice in her career, both rear naked choke losses. She hasn’t been finished since 2014. Alpar has awesome cardio & no quit in her.
Alpar is making her UFC debut in this fight. There is really nothing about her game that makes me want to pick her in this spot, but this is probably a dog or pass fight on the ML. Rose-Clark should have the skill advantages almost everywhere here but not enough to line her over 2-1. Alpar can keep this fight close volume wise if not even be the one pushing forward landing more. She could also work takedowns with her wrestling background, but this fight should mainly take place on the feet. This seems like one of those back and forth fights where it is a split decision that can go either way. I would rather have the underdog in that situation so Alpar is the pick for that reason.
Jessica Rose-Clark is going to be an easy full fade for me with 20 or less lineups. She can definitely win this fight and I think she would score more than 75 in a win, I just don’t think she ends up on the optimal lineup at $8.9k. She is much more talented and should be the faster and cleaner striker, I just think this will be an even volume type fight and I don’t see Clark putting Alpar away. Alpar has been dropped multiple times and Clark won’t carry much ownership, so that is the excuse to play her if you want to chase that $100k. Other than that, I would just avoid her, and I think Alpar is in play in all formats. In cash, I will take a 30-40-point loss from Alpar at $7.3k. I also think she is live to steal the decision and score 70-80 points in a win. I think that could be enough at her price to compete for the optimal lineup, so I do want some exposure to her.
Winner – Sarah Alpar via Split Decision
Mayra Bueno Silva $9,000 vs Mara Romero Borella $7,200
Mayra Buena Silva
Age: 29
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 66.5”
Gym: Chute Boxe Diego Loma
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 38
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -245
Mayra Buena Silva lost her first pro fight her last time out. She was taken down & grinded out by Maryna Moroz. Silva looked good on the feet in the fight rocking Moroz in the third a couple times. Silva is fast with both her hands & kicks. Her hands aren’t as good as her kicks, but she has pretty nice straight punches. Her overhand right & right hook look heavy. Silva also has very nice kicks. She will switch stances as she throws them & is fluid with both stances. She has nice front & round kicks to the body & head. She will throw some very nice spinning kicks. Silva also has very nice standing elbows. She has very nice forward pressure & owns the center of the octagon. She showed power on her last fight. Silva has one TKO finish.
Mayra Bueno Silva is high level & extremely dangerous on the ground. She has finished three of her five wins by submissions. Silva isn’t the best wrestler though. Offensively she will look for more Jiu-Jitsu type takedowns, such as trips and clinch takedowns. When she gets top position, Silva is dominant. She will move to mount or the back and finish the fight. In her last two matches she’s been shot in on and found the submission. Silva caught Mayana Souza in a ninja choke when she was working for a takedown against the fence & choked her unconscious. She then followed that up by catching Gillian Robertson in a nasty armbar. The belly down armbar for Silva is her thing & she hits it super-fast. Silva was taken down pretty easily by Robertson. She tends to enter range square and her constant forward pressure gives opponents opportunities to change levels. Moroz was able to get her down, control her in the clinch and tired her out. Silva has only been out of the first round twice in her career and is just 1-1 with the win being a split decision.
Mara Romero Borella
Age: 34
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 69”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Italy
UFC Record: 2-4
Fight Matrix: 61
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: +205
Mara Romero Borella is making the quick turnaround here after a piss poor showing a couple months back. Borella was submitted early in the first round by Cortney Casey. She has lost 3 fights in a row & is on the verge of being cut. The urgency needs to be at an all-time high here for Borella. Borella is a flat-footed counter striker. She will throw leg kicks, and a straight-right hand. She will throw a straight-right, left hook combination. She will throw right hook, leg kick combinations. She likes to close the distance with straight punch flurries, but they are a bit sloppy. She is low output & plods into range. She can’t strike moving backwards & is very hittable. Borella will wain in with no feints or fakes, get countered & has a weak chin. She got slept with a big knee in her match with Lauren Murphy. She got dropped by Montana De La Rosa, who isn’t a puncher. Her chin is a major liability at this point in her career. Mara isn’t super dangerous with her striking with only 3 KO/TKO’s in her career. She has been finished 4 times via KO/TKO.
Mara Romero Borella at her best is a physical grappler. Against Taila Santos she closed the distance quickly in every round and controlled her in the clinch against the cage. Borella has good cage control & body lock takedowns. Borella does a good job of landing directly into side control. She avoids the guard of her opponents pretty well. On top, she is strong with heavy pressure. She has good pressure passes to the mount & the back where she has a good rear naked choke. In her last fight she didn’t mind her P’s & Q’s against an opportunistic arm hunter like Casey & was armbarred. You know she wants to get that one back. Borella has 4 career submissions and been submitted just 1 time in her career. Her cardio is a little bit suspect and she can get tired in round three.
Give me Silva here. She is the more dangerous fighter everywhere and more likely to get the finish wherever this fight goes. On the feet, Silva should be able to win clearly, and she could even get a knockout. Borella is going to look to get this fight against the cage or look for takedowns and she will try to use her top control time to grind out a decision. Silva could finish her from the bottom with a submission though and I think Silva is more likely to get up than Borella is to get a submission.
I do have interest in Silva here, I just think it will be hard to afford her at $9k. I would rather click on 3-4 other names, so she probably won’t end up making many of my lineups. I think she can finish on the feet or the ground though so she is in play here and if I need to move down to her to move up to an underdog I like more, then I am ok with that. Borella really doesn’t interest me too much. She can land takedowns here, I just don’t see a finish from her unless it’s a RNC, but I think she would more likely win from winning two rounds via top control. Maybe she gets a few takedowns and gets around 10x at next to no ownership, but I don’t see a big ceiling from her. I won’t X her out of my pool, but I won’t force her into any lineups either. Silva is the preferred play of the two though I think, even with the big price tag.
Winner – Mayra Bueno Silva via 1st round Submission
Mirsad Bektic $9,500 vs Damon Jackson
Bektic’s opponent pulled out and now the UFC brought Jackson back on short notice after years away from the organization. Jackson is going to need to either keep this fight standing or lock up a submission to have any chance here most likely. Bektic is going to look to maul him and he should be able to have a lot of success with takedowns and GNP, especially early. Jackson likely needs to weather the storm and come back to win late, but this is a tough spot for him. Bektic is going to be the pick by TKO here and I think it could come in round 1 or 2. The first round should be domination from Bektic and aside from maybe a triangle from Jackson, he probably doesn’t have much of a chance in that first round. There are no odds for this fight yet, but I’d expect Bektic to be a big favorite.
This is Bektic or pass for me on DK. I think he has a very high ceiling and I do want exposure to him. It’s just hard paying that price for him when I like the whole $9k range. I think he has one of the higher ceilings on the slate though and he will probably be the 3rd to 5th highest owned in that range. Jackson is a guy that I don’t think I get exposure to but if dropping to him gets me 5 others that I love in my LU then maybe he makes one LU that way. If you think he has a shot here, then he is a fine play and I would expect him to be under $7k.
Winner – Mirsad Bektic via 1st round (T)KO
David Dvorak $8,200 vs Jordan Espinosa $8,000
David Dvorak
Age: 28
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Czech Republic
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 42
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W14
Betting Odds: -110
David Dvorak was successful in his UFC debut earning a unanimous decision over Bruno Silva. Dvorak has won fourteen straight fights and hasn’t lost in over eight years. He has finished thirteen of the fourteen wins. David Dvorak looks like a pretty high-level striker. He has excellent distance control, feints, and combinations. He is big & long for the division & blazing fast. He has very fluid straight & hook punch combinations. He likes drawing out shots from his opponent with feints, then countering. Dvorak has nasty kicks as well. He will throw kicks to all parts of the body with little tell or wind up. He throws a lot of low kicks, and front & round kicks to the body. He has nasty step-in knees he uses to finish combinations. Dvorak looks like a very skillful striker. He should have the major advantage there. Dvorak has 8 KO/TKO’s & definitely has power. He was TKO’d one time early in his career.
David Dvorak looks well-rounded. He isn’t a super active grappler but looks super strong in the clinch. He is excellent at taking the back from standing position & once he gets there he usually finishes the fight. His distance control and speed make it very hard to shoot a good takedown on him. I haven’t seen him put on his back in any of his fights. In this matchup, I imagine he will have to show some defensive wrestling skills to be successful. He does have one armbar & one heel hook win on his record to go along with 6 rear naked chokes. Dvorak has great cardio & should be able to push hard.
Jordan Espinosa
Age: 30
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 69”
Gym: Lutrell’s MMA
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 23
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -110
Jordan Espinosa is making the drop back down to 125 lbs again. He went up to BW in his last fight & won a decision over Mark De La Rosa. Espinosa has a 1-2 record at FLW in his career and is only 2-2 in the UFC overall. Espinosa is super-fast & explosive. He has a hands down style & likes to dart in & out with blitz attacks. He tends to fight moving backwards a lot but works behind the jab & makes opponents pay with counters. Espinosa has a really nice, heavy jab. He will throw nice leg kicks. Espinosa has good drive by straight-right hands. He will throw tight one-twos. He does have a nice check left hook going backwards & dropped his opponent on the DWCS with it. He will throw powerful body & head kicks. His head kicks come very fast, and he had a nice head kick knockout of Nick Urso on the DWCS. He will throw the head kick after his one-twos. When he can’t get the fight to the mat and is being out struck he can panic a bit. He can start to shoot takedowns from too far outside & flop to his back. He doesn’t have much boxing at all & really is trying to be all the way out until he can enter with a long punch, kick or takedown. He is improving with his pull countering ability & being more confident in the pocket. He is very fast & will slip & counter with straight punches. The issue with his defense is he tends to lean back when he throws punches & doesn’t have his hands up. This leads to him getting hit flush on the chin at times. Espinosa also will dart in with his hands low and eat shots that way occasionally as well. Espinosa is hard to hit when he’s going backwards though due to his speed. I have seen him wobbled & rocked in fights, but he recovers well. He has two career KO/TKO’s & has never been finished with strikes.
Jordan Espinosa is a former wrestler, with some Jiu-Jitsu skills. He doesn’t tend to work in the clinch much, but he has nasty knees to the body. He is explosive & has good double leg takedowns. He will dig an underhook & and land a trip takedown or drop down for a double. He will shoot single legs as well. On top, he has decent ground & pound elbows, but is mainly looking for submissions. He has very good guard passes & will athletically jump from guard to side control. He is very fast in the scrambles & floats well on top as opponents move on bottom. When opponents try to belly down & stand up, that’s where he is most dangerous working his front head lock series. He has seven submission wins. Espinosa’s submission defense is not good. He has been submitted in his last two losses & four times overall.
Both guys looked really good in their last fights and this is a close matchup for sure. Espinosa should be the faster and flashier striker and should be the one throwing more volume. Dvorak looks like the fighter with a higher ceiling in the sport and he looks to be the more well-rounded and dangerous fighter. Dvorak could have the edge on the ground here too and it would be smart for him to mix in takedowns and keep Espinosa guessing. Close fight but Dvorak is the pick.
This is probably a fight I won’t get too much. I think both guys are in play and if you have a lean one way or another then that is the preferred play. I just don’t personally have a lean I am at all confident in, so I would rather roster other spots. I think this could be a fight where the winner scores ~75 DK points and if I do fade it, that would help me. Dvorak is my preferred play though because I see him having an edge on the ground and he is live for a submission. If I use this fight in 20 lineups it would probably be 1-2 Dvorak lineups and 0-1 Espinosa. I am not against fading it either because there are higher ceiling spots, and this is pretty 50/50 to me.
Winner – David Dvorak via Split Decision
Kevin Holland $9,100 vs Darren Stewart $7,100
Kevin Holland
Age: 27
Height: 6’3
Weight: 185
Reach: 81”
Gym: Travis Lutter BJJ
From: Texas
UFC Record: 5-2
Fight Matrix: 42
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -250
Kevin Holland is a dynamic athlete with a great frame for the division. He does a good job of staying long. He has a nice jab, good one-twos, and his straight-right hand is accurate. He has a nice check left hook. He will throw long hooks & slaps as well. He will throw jabs & straight-right hands to the body. He lunges in with a lot of his punches & is fast in & out. He can leave his chin high with his hands down. He will also lean back at times & use that tall man type defense. He is very good with his kicks. He will attack with inside/outside leg kicks and oblique kicks to the knees. He has a very good lead leg. He will throw a lot of lead leg, hook kicks to the body & head. He has nice round kicks, and heavy rear leg front kicks to the body. He will throw a front kick to a straight-right hand combination. He did a great job of targeting the body of John Phillips with front kicks, hurting him multiple times. When he gets pressured, he will open up with jump knees. He will mix in lead elbows in close range. He is very good at keeping a high guard & rolling with shots in close range. He will let his opponents hit his guard & then try to time elbows & shots in between their combos. It is a bit dangerous because he isn’t moving & there is always the chance the right shot slips through the guard and hurts him. His striking & the knockout was a thing of beauty in his last fight. Overall, he is excellent at fighting long & is an awkward puzzle to solve. He can allow himself to get backed up against the cage & become more defensive than offensive if an opponent has power. He will also throw shots like little jabs, or non-power shots when he is too close to his opponent and gets countered with bigger shots. He does have a great chin & will talk to opponents and get confidence off taking their shots. After he gets hit he can get emotional and walk forward with his hands down. He definitely is at his best, when he is feinting with the lead leg and using it to set up his punches & going forward himself. He has 8 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished with strikes.
Kevin Holland is a good grappler. He is a black belt under Dean Lister. He has solid body locks, and good G&P. He was able to get two nice double legs in his last match, but that was against a fighter with no grappling. Overall, he doesn’t look to go for takedowns much or to work in the clinch. He will throw the occasional clinch elbow or knee. He will look to get standing guillotines. He will also go for flying armbars & triangles. On top, he will throw hard punches standing in a fighter’s guard due to his length and can land elbows. He will look to use his length to pass into dominant positions & and get the mount or back. He was able to get a rear naked choke in his last win. He is dangerous with submissions. He has a nasty guillotine, good triangles and leg locks. He will sweep with omaplatas. He will attack with kimuras. He is active on top or off his back. Holland’s takedown defense is terrible. He is taken down from the clinch or with wrestling shots far too easily. He does have the ability to get out of deep submissions & scrambles well. Holland in his last fight was actually dominating the striking and winning on the ground but he gassed out. He has 6 submissions & has only been submitted one time.
Darren Stewart
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: MMA Clinic
From: England
UFC Record: 5-5-1
Fight Matrix: 50
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +210
Darren Stewart is a very athletic, explosive guy. He is mostly a counter striker & not very high volume. He has a very nice, powerful jab, and heavy low kicks. He knocked Eric Spicely down with the jab and took Bevon Lewis off his feet with several leg kicks. Stewart has a nice pull counter, straight-right hand & always is looking for the counter right hook, left hook combination. Stewart has a very nice lead uppercut, right hook combination. Stewart can sometimes mix in spinning backfists & jumping kicks. His power & speed seems to back some fighters off & make them hesitant to throw. Stewart has to be able to control the pace of the fight with his power. Stewart has won 7 fights via KO/TKO.
Darren Stewart isn’t a great grappler. This isn’t a wrestling match though. Stewart has proven to be extremely dangerous in the clinch. Stewart has big short-range power, and devastating elbows & knees. He put Charles Byrd out with a nasty elbow. Stewart will need to be opportunistic in this fight & if he sees an opportunity in the clinch to take it. Stewart can be controlled in the clinch & touched up himself. When he fought Edmen Shahbazyan, Shahbazyan was able to control him with a tight waist against the fence for multiple minutes. Shahbazyan was able to duck under the big, swinging shots of Stewart, clinch up & push him to the fence. Stewart smothers his work & always finds himself in the clinch. He is too comfortable being controlled in the over under position or against the fence. Stewart can be taken down with singles & doubles against the cage & in space. He is pretty good at standing up with the help of the cage & is hard to hold down. Against Bartosz Fabinski he kept getting mat returned, but he won’t have to worry about that here. Stewart can give his back to stand up and was submitted by Karl Roberson with a rear naked choke. Stewart was in a war with Julian Marquez where he panic wrestled & got caught in a guillotine & submitted. In his last fight, he got a guillotine of his own.
Holland has all the advantages in this matchup aside from maybe fight IQ. It’s hard to trust Holland to do the smart thing in fights but skill wise I like him on the feet and on the ground in this matchup. Stewart should look to keep this standing and he can keep it close on the feet and possibly get a knockout. We haven’t seen Holland’s chin really tested though so I wouldn’t want to rely on Stewart to get the KO and Holland should be the one throwing and landing more volume.
Holland is the preferred play here and he might be a guy I look to go overweight on. He has the edge on the feet and the ground in my opinion and he is more likely to finish the fight in either area. The worry with him would be lack of volume and fighting down to Stewart’s pace, and he is too expensive for that. I just love the talent and if he looks to grapple, I think he could have a lot of success and a decent ceiling. I want at least 25-30% Holland lineups personally. Stewart is in play for me just because he is a cheap, live dog. I don’t see a big ceiling from him though, so I won’t force him into any lineups, but he could make a rotation of underdogs that I use throughout my lineups. Holland is in play in all formats for me though and Stewart would be GPP only.
Winner – Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision
Mackenzie Dern $8,700 vs Randa Markos $7,500
Makenzie Dern
Age: 27
Height: 5’4
Weight: 115
Reach: 63”
Gym: Team Oyama
From: California
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 28
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -165
Makenzie Dern will be looking to make it 2-0 in 2020 with a win over Randa Markos. Dern is the best Jiu-Jitsu girl in the UFC and has shown that with five submissions in her eight wins. Dern as a striker is still developing. Dern will throw out the jab or lead hook. She has a decent one-two and a powerful overhand right. Dern will wing wild wide hooks at times. She also will pull back with her chin high. She is a tough girl though & isn’t afraid to get hit. As far as kicks go, Dern will throw some occasional low kicks & body kicks, but not many. Dern has no wins by KO/TKO but has dropped and submitted fighters.
Makenzie Dern is the best Jiu-Jitsu practitioner in the woman’s divisions. She can snatch a sub from top or on bottom, and opponents don’t want to go to the mat with her. Dern’s wrestling isn’t the best. She has more Jiu-Jitsu takedowns in the clinch but doesn’t have good entries to get there. When she does, she will land some nice trips & throws. Dern does have a pretty decent single leg. On top, Dern is a beast, and finisher. She has slick back takes & when she gets there she will finish the fight. Dern will pull guard and is elite off her back also. She has sick leg locks, a great high guard, armbar and triangle. She has gotten a rear naked choke omaplata submission. I don’t see Randa Markos being able to just takedown and control Dern. She will be in constant danger and submitted or swept. Dern has improved her cardio, and it didn’t look bad vs Amanda Ribas.
Randa Markos
Age: 35
Height: 5’4
Weight: 115
Reach: 63.5”
Gym: Tristar Gym
From: Canada
UFC Record: 6-7-1
Fight Matrix: 19
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +145
Randa Markos is a grinder. She is good in the clinch or going for takedowns. She will work in the clinch against the cage and has no problem grinding fighters out there, but she lacks physicality at times and can get taken down herself or controlled against the cage. She will throw overhand rights into body locks. She will try to attack with hooks, back her opponents to the cage & dig an underhook. She will use nice snatch singles to get opponents to the cage. She has good body locks and doubles and will go for hip tosses. On top, she does a good job of getting in dominant positions and landing decent G&P. She will turk the legs & try to move directly into mount. She likes to take mount & has some nice G&P. She also has nice back takes using the double wrist lock. She has struggled with good BJJ players, they have been able to sweep her & put her in submission trouble. Cortney Casey was able to catch an armbar off her back on Markos. Ashley Yoder really dominated her in top position. Off her back, she actually isn’t bad, she does a good job of scrambling and has good dexterity in her legs and can take the back in odd positions. She does a good job of when she wins a scramble, she immediately gets in a dominant position and goes to work not letting her opponent rest. She isn’t a huge submission threat, but she has 4 career submissions. She has been submitted twice herself.
Markos will throw straight punches & hooks to close the distance and she will throw overhand rights & left hooks to try to catch opponents coming in. When she is getting pushed back & pressured, she doesn’t do much of anything. She is extremely low output & she hung around on the outside with Gadelha and didn’t do much in her last match either. She will bite down at times & throw one-twos or walk through shots to get inside, but not often enough. Markos doesn’t have power & she has had 9 decisions in 11 UFC fights. She has 0 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes.
BJJ wise, Dern is going to have the edge over almost anybody. She is not a great wrestler though, so it is hard for her to get the fight to the mat, and her striking is nothing special at all. If she can get the fight to the mat, she can finish almost any fight, and she should have a big edge there against Markos as well. The striking and wrestling edge should go slightly to Markos here though, so this could be a dog or pass fight on the ML. I wouldn’t want to lay juice on Dern in this matchup, but I think the submission prop could be the way to go if you want to bet her. If this fight goes the distance the value is on the underdog, and Dern could struggle to get this to the ground. I originally picked Markos by decision but switched to Dern by sub.
Markos is my preferred play her because I think she is very live here and she is cheap. I do not see her scoring well though, so we don’t have to have her, but she is in the mix for me. I would say GPP only because she could lose quick to a sub, but I wouldn’t talk you off her in cash. Dern is in play as well, but I think she needs a 1st round sub to be on the optimal so I am not very interested. She won’t be somebody who racks up takedowns, so we need the finish for her to score well and I don’t think this will be any slugfest on the feet. Overall, this fight is one I won’t get much exposure to but more so Markos or pass.
Winner – Mackenzie Dern via 3rd round Submission
Johnny Walker $8,300 vs Ryan Spann $7,900
Johnny Walker
Age: 28
Height: 6’6
Weight: 205
Reach: 82”
Gym: SBG
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 32
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -125
Johnny Walker is a fallen star right now, looking to reclaim that shine. After his first couple performances in the UFC, people were pronouncing him a future UFC champion. Now after a couple setbacks back to back a lot of people are off the train. Walker is still an athletic specimen & extremely dangerous. He has gone back to SBG Ireland for this fight, a camp he’s trained at before. I still don’t really like to see a guy jump around camps like that. Walker is a super dynamic striker. He is extremely athletic, and clearly improving rapidly. His movement & distance control is night and day from what it was a couple years ago. He has a very long karate stance & is light on his feet. He has an 82” reach and utilizes it very well. He will throw a lot of fakes & feints and is always giving his opponents different looks. He has very good head movement & is ready to counter immediately. He has a very nice straight & overhand right. He will throw a lot of oblique kicks to the knees & front kicks to the body. He will throw nice head kicks & follow with a quick straight-left hand, right hook. His head kicks are very fast & he is unusually athletic for someone his size. He is a very creative striker. He will throw axe kicks to the head, jump knees into superman punches or spinning backfists, and when he finds his range will throw in combination. He can throw kicks without setting them up at times & be countered hard with straight punches. Walker has struggled with fighters who can box and can be stunned easily. He has big power & is very explosive with 13 KO/TKO’s in his career. He has been finished three times by strikes.
Walker actually is not a bad grappler. He is extremely dangerous in the clinch. His frame allows him to get the Muay Thai plum much easier. He will throw nasty knees & elbows from clinch. He will throw a combination & then grab the Muay Thai plum & throw a jump knee. He will try to get the single collar position, trap the wrist quickly and come over the top with elbows. He has good takedown defense. He will use a heavy sprawl and circle to the back. He will try to hit a switch when opponents take him down as well. He will attack with front chokes to defend takedowns also and will use the choke to move directly into mount. He will throw hard elbows to the head when opponents get in on him against the cage. His takedown defense is a little bit questionable. Nikita Krylov exploited him again in that aspect taking him down virtually at will. Walker was dominated on bottom for the majority of the fight but did sweep and have some good ground & pound late in the second. If he misses on these big actions, he can be there to be taken down. He was taken down multiple times by Henrique Da Silva. When he does get taken down, he has very dexterous legs & can use them to sweep extremely well. Walker uses a lot of athleticism to escape positions instead of technique. I feel he could gas out being stuck on bottom. On top, Walker is good. He distributes his weight well, can float and keep top position. He will slowly work to mount & the back. He doesn’t seem to have great submission technique, but he will attack with the chokes. When he hurts fighters, he will rain down brutal ground & pound. He does tire as the fight gets to the third round & I do feel that if Spann can extend him & get him down he may finish. Walker will never give up in positions on the ground & has incredible heart. He was dropped & hurt badly multiple times vs Wagner Prado, and on the ground was still moving and trying to survive. He even got dropped immediately, went in on a single leg, and was using head movement while he was in on the leg which was an interesting survival technique. Walker isn’t a big submission threat with two in his career & has been submitted one time by Jiu-Jitsu ace Klidson Farias.
Ryan Spann
Age: 29
Height: 6’5
Weight: 205
Reach: 81.5”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 4-0
Fight Matrix: 18
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: +105
Ryan Spann will be looking to run his UFC record to 5-0. He won a decision over the veteran Sam Alvey his last fight but is now getting a step up in competition. Spann has had some impressive performances such as versus Devin Clark & Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, but also lackluster in others. His last fight he got hurt badly in third round & escaped with a split decision. Spann is consistently improving and getting better. On the feet, he is still pretty basic, but he’s long, fast and a powerful athlete. Spann has an 81.5” reach and uses it well. He is good at walking opponents down, controlling distance with the jab, and pull countering. He really likes to throw the one-two combination and has a heavy straight-right hand. In the pocket, Spann has fast hands and will throw some nice hooks and uppercuts. He will get crazy inside though and throw a little wild. His counter left hook is pretty nice. In his match with Nogueira, his hand speed was too much, and he clipped Nogueira many times before finishing him. He rocked Clark and had him looking scared to throw, backing him up for a majority of the fight. Spann did struggle with the counter punching of Alvey and I’m worried about him here. Spann has been put out with strikes twice before.
Ryan Spann’s grappling is improving & he’s relying on it much more now. You saw in Spann’s last fight he struggled with the counter punching ability of Alvey, so he went to his grappling early & often. Alvey isn’t an easy guy to takedown & Spann was able to hit a couple single leg takedowns against the cage. Spann also has pretty good body locks & trips in the clinch. He will look to take the back from standing. Spann had a very deep standing arm triangle choke he almost finished Alvey with in the first round. He was able to takedown Nogueira, and quickly lock in an arm triangle choke. Spann is pretty good on top & has strong ground and pound. The most dangerous aspect of his game is definitely his guillotine. It is really nasty, and he can lock it in quickly. He uses it very well to negate takedowns and catches it in scrambles. Fighters always have to be weary of it if they are fighting him. Spann’s defensive wresting is a bit questionable. He was taken down fairly easily in the clinch and against the cage against Luis Henrique. Off his back, Spann looks much improved as well. When he fought Luis Henrique, he was controlled rather easily, but he showed good get-ups vs Clark. Spann was able to control Clark in the clinch as well and held his own against a very good wrestler ultimately submitting him. I expect Spann to try to close that distance in this fight as well & get the fight to the mat. Spann has eleven submissions & likely will be looking for number twelve Saturday.
The striking edge mainly goes to Walker here and he is much more likely to finish on the feet, especially in round 1. The edge on the ground should go to Spann, but he is not a great wrestler that we can rely on getting it there without getting knocked out first. After round 1, this fight should get a bit closer on the feet and maybe Spann can work takedowns after Walker tires and possibly get a finish of his own on the mat. The pick is Walker to get a 1st round knockout but if Spann weathers the early storm then it could be a decent live betting spot on him going into round 2.
Walker is the preferred play here and one I will have to be somewhat heavy on at $8.3k. I think the most likely outcome in this fight is a 1st round knockout from him and at $8.3k that is likely winning somebody $100k. He is a guy we have to get exposure to if MMEing, but he is a boom /bust guy. He has to get that KO to win the $100k and if he doesn’t get the KO he might lose. I don’t see Spann winning in round 1 so I won’t be heavy on him, but he is very live here and could get a sub in any round so I want some of him as well. I don’t have as much interest because his ceiling isn’t as high, and I don’t think he is a lock for the optimal if he gets a win. As much as I hate it, Walker will probably be a core play for me.
Winner – Johnny Walker via 1st round (T)KO
Khamzat Chimaev $9,400 vs Gerald Meerschaert $6,800
Khamzat Chimaev
Age: 26
Height: 6’2
Weight: 185
Reach: 75”
Gym: Allstars Training Center
From: Sweden
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 70(WW)
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -390
Khamzat Chimaev is taking the UFC by storm. He will be looking to run over another opponent and go to 3-0. Chimaev is 6’2, tall & rangy. He is good at using his jab & low kicks to maintain distance. Chimaev is usually super aggressive though and closes distance with tight one-twos. He has a nice one-two, left right hook combination. He has some decent kicks. Chimaev dropped Ikram Aliskerov with a jab, and ultimately knocked him out with a beautiful slip uppercut. It’s hard to say truly how good Chimaev’s striking is because I haven’t seen much of it. He is very aggressive closing the distance with strikes & working to get the fight to the mat. That game plan will serve him well in this fight. Chimaev has 4 KO/TKO’s in his career, and in the one fight he struck predominately he showed good things.
Khamzat Chimaev is a very good grappler. He looked exactly as advertised in his debut. He is super aggressive on the mat. Chimaev is a Swedish National Champion wrestler. He has been able to out wrestle Georgia State champion wrestler Sidney Wheeler, and combat sambo champion Ikram Aliskerov. He has good body lock trips and nice double legs. Against John Phillips, he hit a double leg within the first ten seconds of both rounds. In top position, he is a beast. He will get into dominant positions and rain down thunderous shots. He is very good at trapping wrists when he gets to the back or wrestling ride position & just raining shots until the fight gets called. He was in that wrestling ride position practically the whole fight his last time out. He was landing nice ground & pound while searching for front chokes & rear nakeds. I have seen him choke more than one opponent unconscious. He had a 10-7 round where he dominated on the mat before finishing in round two vs Phillips. He was able to hit a nice darce choke in the second and close the show. He took virtually no damage in either of his UFC fights being hit just twice. Chimaev has four career submissions. He is very confident already calling for fights with names like Demian Maia.
Gerald Meerschaert
Age: 32
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 77.5”
Gym: Roufusport
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 6-5
Fight Matrix: 38
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +320
Gerald Meerschaert is looking to get right back on the horse following a disappointing effort in his last matchup. He was knocked out in less than a minute and thirty seconds by Ian Heinisch and needs a better result here. Gerald Meerschaert on the feet isn’t the best but has some dangerous weapons. He has nasty body kicks that he has folded multiple opponents with. He will throw heavy head kicks. In this fight, Meerschaert’s body kicks & boxing need to be on point. In his last few fights he has shown some improved boxing. Meerschaert isn’t overextending as much and relies a lot more on the jab. GM3’s jab is pretty good, but very slow. Meerschaert has a pretty nice straight & overhand right. His left hook hurt Eryk Anders a couple times in their match. He was doing a good job of catching Anders with it as he tried to exit. He rocked Deron Winn and finished him. When Meerschaert can back his opponents towards the cage, he will let go with longer combinations to the body & head. He is good at attacking the body in fights. Meerschaert will mix in nasty knees & elbows and gets most of his finishes standing when his opponent’s backs are against the fence. Meerschaert does have some defensive flaws on the feet though. He isn’t the fastest fighter, nor does he have the best footwork. He will lean back a lot to avoid punches instead of moving his feet. He is very hittable and did get dropped vs Anders. He took a lot of damage against Winn, and then was finished quickly vs Heinisch. He is heavy on his lead leg & can be low kicked. Meerschaert is a durable guy though & has only been finished by strikes one time. He has 6 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Gerald Meerschaert is a crafty veteran & black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He is very good at baiting opponents into fighting his style of fight. He will give no resistance on takedowns, flop to his back when hurt, and always is inviting opponents to get in top position on him. Meerschaert is very confident that he will be able to find a sweep, take top position and end the fight. He has good single leg takedowns and he does a good job of timing singles when opponents throw kicks. He has nice body lock entries, and he is very physically strong in the clinch. He has good control, nice short knees and elbows and will grind in the clinch. Eventually, he will drop down for a double or single. He has good chain wrestling and can transition from body locks to doubles to singles very fluidly. On top, he has strong ground & pound, and he will rain down straight punches and elbows. He has good guard passing and is very heavy on top. He is very opportunistic with chokes and has a lot of different chokes he can pull off. He has gotten a guillotine, arm triangle, anaconda, and rear naked choke. Meerschaert has 23 submissions in his 31 wins.
Chimaev is everyone’s new favorite fighter and Dana White even double booked him with him being scheduled to fight again before this match even happens. Meerschaert could upset that party here but it will have to come from a submission. Chimaev is probably better everywhere here but Meerschaert is dangerous on the ground and I wouldn’t be shocked if he pulled off a submission upset. We have seen Chimaev dominate two guys on the ground so far in the UFC, but this is one he should look to keep standing and he should be able to win by KO or a decision on the feet. He could probably rinse and repeat takedowns if he wants as well, it is just more so playing with fire on the ground against Meerschaert.
Chimaev is the preferred play here but I am not sure what I will do with him yet. I think him, and Colby will start most lineups and I don’t know that I want to be the same as the field. I could see Chimaev wanting to show off his striking in this match and if he does that, I don’t see him making the optimal lineup. He does have a high ceiling though because he can rack up takedowns with Meerschaert willing to accept them, but that is where all the danger lies for him IMO. I will still have plenty of Chimaev exposure, I just don’t know if I want to be over or underweight on him. Meerschaert is in play for that submission finish but he might be a bit too popular for my liking and he won’t be a guy I force into any lineups. If I go overweight on Chimaev then I probably use Meerschaert as a hedge in a couple, but if I am under on Chimaev I might just fade GM3 because I think Chimaev would win a striking match if he wants to.
Winner – Khamzat Chimaev via 2nd round (T)KO
Niko Price $8,500 vs Donald Cerrone $7,700
Niko Price
Age: 30
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 76”
Gym: MMA Masters
From: Florida
UFC Record: 6-4-1
Fight Matrix: 52
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -150
Niko Price lost his last match, but it was a very spirited effort. He looked good for two rounds before getting rocked & cut open in the third. The doctor stopped the fight, and that’s how he lost the match. Price is still a bad dude & getting the fight of his life in this one. He has to be jazzed up & ready to go here. Price is a very dangerous striker, but more opportunistic than anything. Price uses a lot of lateral movement, leg kicks & straight-right hands. He likes to be all the way out or all the way in. He will hang around on the outside & wait for his opponent to commit to meet them in the middle with counters or explode in with a shot. Price likes to come over the top with looping left & right hooks. He will throw a left-hand slap into a right hook or right straight. Price has nice round & front kicks to the body & head. Price can be a little awkward when he comes forward. He will hold his hands low & just doesn’t move the fastest coming forward. In almost every fight he gets tagged with huge shots as he comes forward. He almost accepts he’s going to get hit to give his own shots. In his fight with Tim Means, he was getting pieced up with straights & front kicks. Means got too over aggressive & one hook ended his night. That’s what makes Price so good. He just needs his opponent to make one mistake to close the show. When opponents actually commit to a combination & become stationary, Price will explode with wild hook combinations & can close the distance very quickly. Price likes to grab the Muay Thai plum & finish combinations with knees. Price is a kill or be killed fighter. None of his UFC fights have seen the final bell. Price has 10 KO/TKO’s & insane short-range power. He has only been KO/TKO’d three times in his career, but he has taken a lot of damage and with his style he relies on his chin. He has been rocked or dropped in a lot of his UFC fights, Neal, Means, Alhasson, Brown, Luque, & Morono have all hurt him with shots. He has shown good recoverability, but eventually he will start getting flatlined.
Niko Price is not the greatest defensive wrestler. He has been taken down in many fights including his last two. Means was able to slam him with a double leg, and Neal was able to take him down multiple times. Neal was able to get in on body locks, get suplexes and take the back. He eventually postured up & finished the match. Price couldn’t get-up off his back & didn’t show good defensive technique. When he was taken down by Brown, he was able to get a hammerfist knockout off his back, which was insane. Even off his back, Price has the power to knock fighters out. Price can be a little sloppy with his entries, especially his double legs. He has good double legs when he times them correctly, but he can shoot them from too far out at times & I feel Cowboy may be able to reverse. He does a good job of using the single & double to get his opponent against the cage, transitioning to a body lock & getting the takedown. He definitely is better at getting the takedowns in the clinch & against the cage. When he gets opponents down he likes to work quickly. He has strong G&P and will look for submissions. He has two submissions in the UFC. He will transition to the back mount & look for rear naked chokes. He also has an arm triangle victory over Brandon Thatch. Price has 3 career submissions overall. Price has been submitted once by Luque, but it was after being dropped. Price has an undying will, and great cardio. He has a screw loose & never thinks he’s out of the fight. Almost all his UFC wins he was getting beat up before coming back to get the finish.
Donald Cerrone
Age: 37
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: BMF Ranch
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 23-12
Fight Matrix: 24
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L4
Betting Odds: +130
Cowboy Cerrone is trying to fight off Father Time a couple more times before he rides off into the sunset. Cerrone has lost four consecutive fights, and a lot of people are saying he is done. He got finished by arguably three of the five best LWs in the world in Tony Ferguson, Justin Gaethje, and Conor McGregor. His last fight was much more competitive, but he lost a decision to Anthony Pettis. Cerrone’s last two fights have been at WW, but against LWs. This is going to be the first big WW he’s fought in a while. Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone is a nasty Muay Thai striker, and his highlight reel of finishes shows that. Cerrone throws vicious kicks, beating up opponent’s legs first and then attacking the body and head. He has the most head kick knockouts in UFC history. He has okay hands, but in boxing range he seems like he is nowhere near as comfortable as kicking range. He doesn’t have tight punching, or the greatest defense and he can be exploited in boxing range. He does have a nice check left hook in the pocket, and he has gotten better at dealing with pressure fighters. He throws a nice front leg sidekick and stomp kick to the leg. He throws a stabbing front kick to the body and at distance really beats up all parts of the body. He uses takedowns to almost disguise a step-in knee at times and it’s beautiful. He throws a step-in knee after he gets denied the shot and even follows with a head kick to close the combination. If Cerrone can find his rhythm and range, fighters are usually screwed. When he is going forward, he is one of the nastiest strikers in the division. Cerrone has obviously taken a lot of damage recently and he cannot get hit clean against a knockout artist like Price. Cerrone has 10 KO/TKO’s all in the UFC, and 5 of his last 6 wins have been KO/TKO finishes. He has been finished with strikes 7 times himself. This whole fight comes down to if Cerrone can still take a shot.
Cerrone has long been an underrated grappler. He has always been very dangerous with his Jiu-Jitsu, but he has improved his wrestling immensely in recent years. Cerrone has gotten much more wrestling heavy in recent fights, and it’s a smart thing to do since he is getting up there in age. Cerrone has good timing on double leg shots, and he also has good body lock takedowns. On top, Cerrone is good. He has strong top control, and he likes to get to the back. He gets most of his submissions after he stuns and drops his opponent. He is very good at jumping on the back and locking in the rear naked choke. He has good takedown defense himself and is hard to hold down. Off his back, he is very dangerous. He has nasty triangles and armbars to go along with very nice sweeps. He had that nasty armbar over Mike Perry last year. He does a great job of getting omaplata sweeps in the guard and will reverse top position. If anyone is to try to get it to the ground I think it will be Donald. I could see him shooting a double leg or two if the pressure starts becoming too much. He has 17 submissions in his career and has been submitted just one time.
I have always been a big Cowboy Cerrone fan and maybe my pick is biased on this one. He is 37-years-old now and he has lost his last 4 fights. 3 of them by TKO. Price is a very dangerous striker and there is a good chance he can put Cowboy away, especially early. However, Cowboy is the better all-around fighter and it’s really the durability that is the issue in this fight. Price is a solid striker but if this goes the distance, I don’t see him outpointing Cowboy, it would just be him getting a KO along the way if he wins the striking battle. On the ground, Cowboy should have a big edge here and if he is smart, he will look for takedowns here where he won’t have to worry as much about his chin getting cracked. If you like Price here, just bet him by KO. Give me Cowboy to get a veteran upset here though and I think he submits Price before round 3.
This is basically an all-in fight. At their salaries, I see the winner in that $100k lineup so this will probably be in 85-95% of my lineups. If Price wins, I think it’s a round 1 KO and that will be 100+ points, and likely on the nuts. I think we need exposure to that in case it happens. If Cowboy wins, I think he scores high enough for the optimal as well no matter what round in comes in. He is the underdog and he is a core play for me for that reason. He will be the highest owned underdog on the card though, so I will get him in more than half my lineups to get some leverage. If I used this in 100% of my lineups, I would guess it is 65/35 in favor of Cowboy for me. Cowboy is not the best cash game play though, but he is my favorite dog so I’m not against using him there too.
Winner – Donald Cerrone via 2nd round Submission
Colby Covington $9,300 vs Tyron Woodley $6,900
Colby Covington
Age: 32
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: MMA Masters
From: Florida
UFC Record: 10-2
Fight Matrix: 4
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -345
Colby Covington will be looking to get back in the win column after his UFC title fight loss. His fight with Kamaru Usman was one of the best title fights ever, but he came up on the losing side. Covington broke his jaw in the fight & was hurt badly in the fifth. He will look to bounce back here against his bitter rival Tyron Woodley. Covington is a tenacious wrestler, with in my opinion, an underrated, high volume striking game. He has an educated lead hand and throws some nice jab and straight. He has a good jab, overhand left combination and has more power than people give him credit for with his overhand left. He dropped Dong Hyun Kim with his overhand left. When he gets in range, he will throw long hook combinations. He was able to throw an insane amount of volume against Robbie Lawler always keeping the jab in Lawler’s face. He wouldn’t allow him to breathe & kept him guessing all night. Covington has nice leg kicks to the inside and outside. He sometimes isn’t incredibly fluid with his kicks. Covington throws a lot of shots and keeps a very high pace to try to wear his opponent out. He does have some defensive problems on the feet. He can keep his lead hand low and get clipped with straight punches. He also can lunge forward at times and get off balance. He can duck his head down at times as well. His chin has been very good though so far in his career. Covington has never been finished by strikes. He doesn’t hit very hard himself.
Covington is former college wrestler & brings those skills to the octagon. He has great entries into his double legs. He does an awesome job of using punches to create entries for the level change and has a strong double leg. He does a great job of staying connected and hanging on fighters. He loves to get the body lock and try to work for the back on the feet whiling hanging on opponents and making them work. He’s very strong in the clinch positions. He isn’t overwhelming with his ground and pound but does enough and can wrestle all day. He has a RNC, but really gets his finishes after he breaks his opponents. He has amazing cardio when he is wrestling and can go all day long. Covington is the worst Jiu-Jitsu player of the two, but both guys are more about controlling & wearing on opponents rather than finishing with a submission. Covington is going to need to back up his mouth now & take it to Woodley.
Tyron Woodley
Age: 38
Height: 5’9
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 9-4-1
Fight Matrix: 5
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +285
If any fight can get Tyron Woodley back it may be this one. The ghost of Woodley is the one that looked like he was fighting his last two fights. He needs to snap out of it, let his hands go or he’s going to lose. Woodley is a very cerebral fighter, he shows up with a plan and executes it to a tee. He is there to win, he does not care about putting on a show for the fans. He is one of the most athletic fighters in UFC history, and is up there with Yoel Romero for most explosive athlete in the sport. The distance he can cover, and speed and power of his overhand right is unbelievable. He has had numerous highlight reel KO’s with that punch and its one of the most devastating strikes in the history of MMA. That right hand gives him the ability to somewhat control distance even though he’s usually the much shorter fighter. It makes his opponents hesitant to close the distance and get in range, and he always has the right hand cocked, so he can kind of freeze his opponents and not let them get their game off with it. He did this very effectively against Stephen Thompson. He has a decent jab, and a good one-two when opponents close the distance. He is very fast in the pocket and catches people with the jab, straight-right hand, and they back out of the pocket and don’t want to engage there anymore. He has brutal leg kicks. He will throw a front kick to the body at times. He usually does a lot of backing up and circling in fights with his back against the cage. He doesn’t have a huge toolbox on the feet, and that’s why he doesn’t throw a lot and expose himself to many striking engagements on the feet. He has the leg kicks, the overhand, the straight-right and a jab, and other than that he doesn’t look to throw much else. The thing is that that right hand is such a dangerous weapon, he can get away with it while still being extremely effective and dangerous. He is a finisher, and when he hurts fighters, he swarms. He does a great job of using footwork to cut his opponents off, and then bombing with the right hand. Woodley has a good chin & rarely gets hit. He has been KO’d just one time in his career. He did get tagged, dropped and almost finished vs Gilbert Burns, but survived to the end. He has 7 KO/TKO’s himself.
Woodley is a Division 1 National Champion wrestler. He has a good double leg and is very strong and explosive. He is good at grabbing the single and driving opponents to the cage and transitioning to the double. He is strong in the clinch as well and can control his opponents against the cage. He will throw nice knees in the clinch to the legs, body & head He doesn’t go for many takedowns himself, and I don’t see him going for a lot of takedowns here. If he does get on top, he is very heavy and has a great wrestling base and top control. He likes to get in half guard and rain down elbows. He has good ground & pound and can cut his opponents open with elbows. He landed some absolutely brutal G&P elbows on Darren Till after dropping him. He ultimately was able to finish with a darce and earn his BB. Woodley has been taken down multiple times in his last two fights. In this one, he will have to worry about the takedown threat again and keep it on the feet. Woodley’s gas tank has always been an issue for him, but he is the one with experience in five round fights.
This one looks pretty simple. If Woodley wins it will likely be a knockout. Other than that, maybe he has a shot at a guillotine finish. If he doesn’t get one of those two finishes, he is going to lose this fight. Colby is going to be throwing at a much higher rate and he should be the better wrestler of the two as well so the worry of being taken down isn’t really there. Covington could even get takedowns and do a lot of work in top position, but he will have to avoid that guillotine. This should be a one-sided fight the whole time, or it will be Colby winning until he loses. This is one of the worst possible matchups for Woodley so give me the clear 50-45 win for Covington.
I think I will be close to all-in on Covington here. I just think this is a terrible matchup for Woodley and Covington can rack up sig strikes and takedowns here. I’m thinking 90% Colby and 10% Woodley for my LUs and Colby is a lock in cash games. I would run him out solo and not stack because aside from the KO or guillotine, Woodley isn’t scoring.
Winner – Colby Covington via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown & be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building & I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend & enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks & predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice & fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: BigMarleyMM.com
- Bets are on a 1-5u scale with 1u = $100.
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