BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC Vegas 10 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card at the UFC Apex in Vegas that will have no fans in attendance due to the pandemic. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $10 buy-in & $50k goes to 1st place with $200k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games & look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience & you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player & it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups & 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights, & hopefully I can help you build some winning lineups:
Sabina Mazo $9,200 vs Justine Kish $7,000
Sabina Mazo
Age: 23
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 70”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Colombia
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 32
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -245
Sabino Mazo enters her fourth UFC fight a massive favorite. She has bounced back from her debut loss to win her last two. In her last fight she took out a tough JJ Aldrich via split decision. Mazo is going to be the much younger fighter here at 23, and the UFC is looking to put her over. Mazo is a long, tall, rangy fighter with dangerous kicks & knees. Mazo throws a lot of jabs. She will double & triple jab, and then come with the two. She doesn’t throw a lot of her jabs with much power, and they’re more range finders. Mazo comes forward, tries to stay in fighter’s faces, and keep the volume high. Mazo threw a lot of volume in her fight with Aldrich, but a lot of it missed. She landed a lot also though. Mazo likes being in the pocket, trading & pull countering. She has nice step-in knees she counters with. She throws a variety of kicks. She throws a lot of body kicks. Mazo has a nasty head kick that she’s knocked multiple opponents out with. She can throw high kicks with both legs. Mazo has that flat footed Muay Thai style and doesn’t really move her head. She is super tough though. Aldrich was able to land some big shots that really snapped Mazo’s head back & Mazo stayed right in the pocket. Aldrich was able to land a lot of straight punches on Mazo as she came forward & kicked or kneed with her chin high. In her fight with Maryna Moroz, Mazo struggled going backwards. She would throw lazy jabs with no power & allow Moroz or get into the clinch or back her to the cage. She has improved with that, but her last two opponents didn’t really pressure her. Mazo is still only 23 so expect her to be steadily improving. She has two knockouts both are head kicks.
Sabina Mazo is not an active grappler. She did show off some nice knees in the Thai clinch in her last fight. She was able to really hurt Aldrich in the clinch with knees to the body. In her fight with Moroz, she really struggled to defend the takedowns in the clinch. Moroz was able to take her down & control her on top. Mazo did show good defense on the ground. She was able to reguard, trap an arm and minimize the damage, but didn’t really attack off her back or look to get back to her feet. Mazo needs to continue to work on her takedown defense & get-ups. Her cardio is very impressive though. She gets better as the fight goes on & can push a killer pace.
Justine Kish
Age: 32
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 65”
Gym: Gym-O
From: Russia
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 31
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +205
Justine Kish is looking to make it 2-0 in 2020. She had a long layoff after her loss in 2018 but came back and defeated Lucie Pudilova in January. Kish is 2-2 in the UFC but has faced tougher competition than Mazo. When you look at Kish’s record she has some decent wins such as Randa Markos, Nina Ansaroff, Ashley Yoder, and Lucie Pudilova. She is training out of a gym that is on a roll right now in Gym-O as well, so she has to have confidence entering this spot. Kish returned in her fight with Pudilova from a long layoff and lot of injuries and in my opinion looked awful. She struggled to find her range and was doing a lot of weird non sensical movement from the outside. She had her hands completely down & was trying to dart in with ugly, telegraphed punches. She barely landed any head strikes in that fight at all. Kish doesn’t have much finesse when it comes to her game. She doesn’t throw many fakes or feints and relies on her chin to eat shots and walk opponents down. Kish will throw some nice jabs & one-twos. She has heavy low kicks, and a really nice left hook. Kish will trade hooks in the pocket, but if opponents don’t give her that game she doesn’t have much else. She will throw some nice body & head kicks. She doesn’t have big power & has zero KOs. She has never been finished by strikes & is extremely durable.
Kish is very physical & will look to work in the clinch. She has a strong Muay Thai plum & will land heavy knees to the body & head. She will dirty box with uppercuts & hooks. Kish has nice body lock & trip takedowns. She has a good single & double leg against the cage. In top position, she throws heavy ground & pound and looks to finish the fight. Kish will look for arm triangles & kimuras. In her match with Felice Herrig, she was taken down with well-timed double legs. She was dominated when Herrig was in top position but showed great heart. She is always moving on bottom trying to stand up. She will belly down & look to stand up. Kish was able to survive a deep choke in that match & has never been submitted. She has two submissions herself.
Mazo is the younger, taller, longer, more active fighter here and she is the rightful favorite. I don’t know that she wins this fight more than 70% of the time like Vegas indicates here. Kish can keep this fight close on the feet, but I don’t see her winning there because Mazo should be landing more and has the reach advantage. Kish’s edge here would be on the mat and if she can get takedowns she can use those to keep top control and win rounds. I wanted to pick Kish outright here because of the betting line but I do think Mazo wins this fight more than she loses it, so I will pick her as the winner, but dog or pass for a bet.
Kish is my preferred play on DraftKings because I think she is live here and Mazo is just too expensive for me to click on much. I could even see Mazo being a fade if I make 20 or less lineups. Kish, I think makes best for a cash game play because she is super cheap and should see 3-rounds, but I will take a shot or two on her in GPPs as well. I feel like she will score around the 10x mark if she wins so even that might not put her on the $50k lineup, but maybe she can rack up multiple takedowns and score more. Overall, I won’t have much exposure to this fight but if I was making just 1 lineup and wanted to use the first fight, Kish would be in it.
Winner – Sabina Mazo via Unanimous Decision
Bryan Barberena $9,000 vs Anthony Ivy $7,200
Bryan Barberena
Age: 31
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: Gym-O
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 5-5
Fight Matrix: 94
Last Fought: 1 Year 3 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -270
Bryan Barberena is making his return to the octagon after over a year away from the cage. Barberena is a tough fighter who has earned a name for himself in the UFC but has been finished in his last two fights. He also gained a lot of weight during quarantine & ballooned to around 250 lbs. Barberena has hard inside leg kicks and will throw powerful hooks & overhands. He is all about forward pressure. He wants to load and deliver power shots in the pocket. He has a nasty right hook & it’s very powerful. He dropped Leon Edwards with a hard uppercut & has good timing on it as fighters close distance. He will use the jab to create openings for hook combinations along with attacking the body. Barberena will throw occasional body & head kicks, but he’s not an active kicker. Barberena needs to be inside to be effective & knows it. He is a tough & rugged fighter who will walk opponents down, eat big shots to get inside & give one of his own. He will throw nice lead elbows in the pocket also. He keeps a high volume of shots out there, has very quick hands and tight combinations. He will also circle the cage & force opponents to walk to him where he will just trade with them there. He has a great chin & will wear opponents out by staying in their face, taking what they can give and still being there. His last fight with Vincente Luque was epic. He has 10 KO/TKO’s & has only been finished by strikes one time. He has shown a granite chin, but he took a ton of damage in his last match, and it could have been a life changer.
Barberena is a decent grappler, but not great. He has good clinch work against the cage and can reverse position and work from there with short knees and punches. He doesn’t go for many takedowns himself, but if he does, when he’s on top he has good control and got an arm triangle against Sage Northcutt. He has good takedown defense especially against the cage and will land elbows and knees in the clinch while denying the takedowns. He can get taken down, but he never accepts position and always is trying to get back to his feet. He was able to get-up multiple times against Colby Covington, who is a premier wrestler in the UFC. He has good cardio, but he does slow a bit in round 3.
Anthony Ivy
Age: 30
Height: 6’2
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: Brazilian Top Team Texas
From: Texas
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 185
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +230
Anthony Ivy is making a quick turnaround just three months after getting knocked out in less than one minute. It was not a good performance, but prior to that he had won five in a row. Ivy is getting a big opportunity here to catch a notable name on the way down. Barberena would be a big scalp for Ivy. On the feet, Ivy is tricky, but not comfortable. He’s tall, long, and does have decent movement. He will throw some jabs & straight punches out there. He has a nice left hook he throws kind of off rhythm. Ivy likes to come forward with multi punch combinations that he throws full power. It makes him dangerous on the feet, but he’s really doing that just to back fighters up & put them on the ground. Ivy has decent front kicks up the middle. Ivy has a solid high kick he will hide behind punches. He is an athletic guy. Ivy is good when he gets fighters’ backs against the cage at throwing in combination. He will fake level changes and throw power shots in close range, using good dirty boxing. Ivy reaches a lot on the feet though. In exchanges he will be out gunned in this matchup. Ivy is very hittable & has been rocked in fights early. He is very tough & has great cardio which helps him survive. He does have five finishes with strikes & is getting more confident on the feet. He has finished his last three wins with strikes.
Anthony Ivy is a grappler, and that’s what he’s looking to do in the cage. He wants to back guys up, shoot that double leg and get them to the mat. Ivy can shoot from way too far out and be very easy to counter. His takedowns against the cage are good. Ivy doesn’t have the greatest top control, but he can wrestle all day and just breaks guys with takedown attempts. As fights progress he is better at controlling, taking the back & working from there. Ivy has good ground & pound from there. Ivy does look weak in the tie-ups at times & can be put on his back himself. He will look for subs off his back and has an ok knee bar, but he’s not great. Ivy has four submissions and has been submitted twice. His cardio is top notch.
Barberena is the better fighter everywhere in this matchup and really has all the advantages other than size. However, he is coming off a back surgery only a year ago and that makes this line a lot harder to trust not knowing how well he will look now or what kind of shape he will be in. This is a stay away fight for me, but the pick is still Barberena and it will likely come by decision from him being the higher volume striker.
Ivy is my preferred play on DraftKings and I just have a gut feeling that he is going to finish this fight. He does have a 100% finish rate so if he wins, there is a decent chance he can finish whether that be by KO or submission. I just don’t see how that plays out in my head, it’s more of the narrative of Barberena’s back surgery combined with the fact that I have never been high on Barberena. I do think Barberena is the better fighter and should be landing at a higher rate, but something is making me feel like he gets finished and I will invest in Ivy on DraftKings in case that feeling is right. I don’t see me having much exposure to Barberena if any because I would rather spend up on other guys if I am rostering the $9k range. If it wasn’t for this gut feeling this would be a fade fight for me but I am probably going to go overweight to Ivy if I can.
Winner – Bryan Barberena via Unanimous Decision
Jalin Turner vs Brok Weaver $7,500
Jalin Turner
Age: 25
Height: 6’3
Weight: 155
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: RVCA
From: California
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 171
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +140
Jalin Turner has been up & down in his UFC career. He is 2-2 overall in the promotion. His last time out he got a nice TKO finish. Turner is a very big, powerful LW with one shot finishing ability. He is 6’3 with a 75.5” reach. On the feet, Turner likes to inch forward, not use a lot of movement and looks to counter or put combos together behind his jab. He will switch stances to cut off the cage. Turner likes to throw the one-two. He is good at ripping the body with the lead left hook. He will feint low after he establishes that shot & come up into an uppercut. He will come forward behind overhands & wide hooks when he can back fighters towards the cage. Turner throws a lot of kicks also. He has nice, stabbing front kicks to the body. He will throw some round kicks to the body & head. Turner has nice spinning back kicks. Turner does have a dangerous counter knee up the middle. His forward pressure, size & presence freezes some opponents, and when they stand still Turner tees off & finishes the fight. If you look at Turner’s record, seven of his eight wins have come that way. Turner is pretty flat footed, low volume, and a bit slow. Matt Frevola was touching and moving a lot, and Turner couldn’t match the speed. Turner will leave his chin right on center line & squares up at times. He will throw front knees or body kicks too close & leave his chin right out there to get hit. Due to that, Turner has been put away a lot & has a weak chin. Turner has been knocked out three times in his career already.
Jalin Turner is not the best grappler. In the clinch, he is dangerous with knees & elbows. He has improved his takedown defense. He will dig nice underhooks and has a good whizzer. Turner still can be taken down to the mat with well-timed shots and squares up in his stance giving up his hips. He will look to counter takedown shots with knees that are dangerous. Once Turner is put on his back, I don’t like what I see. Against Frevola, he gave up mount, the back, and was almost guillotined a couple times. He showed good composure and submission defense but put himself in bad positions. In his last fight, Turner showed good ground & pound. He landed some heavy elbows. He went for a nice, high elbow guillotine. His grappling is improving but that’s not where he wants to be.
Brok Weaver
Age: 28
Height: 6’0
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Alabama
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 220
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +190
Brok Weaver is a southpaw boxer brawler. Weaver puts combinations together to the body & head and has fluid hands. Weaver controls distance well with feints. He has a nice jab, good one-two and a heavy, lead right hook. Weaver likes to throw a left straight to the body to an overhand right combination. Weaver in some fights uses a lot of oblique kicks to the legs. He will stand in front of opponents, feint & look to counter, but can be low volume. In this fight, he has to use his style from his contender series match, move forward & maul. Weaver will throw some occasional round kicks to the legs, body & head, but not often. Weaver does cut the cage off & backs opponents up well. He is excellent at using the right hook to tag opponents as they try to circle off the cage. Weaver is nasty and will engage in brawls. He will get cut & use his fingers to spread the blood on his face & scream. He thoroughly enjoys fighting, and that is a dangerous guy. Weaver has fought in some boxing matches & Bare-knuckle FC vs Joe Riggs who is a huge guy. He definitely is the better boxer in this match. Weaver can get in some exchanges, but overall, he has good defense. Weaver doesn’t have the biggest power with only two KO/TKO’s. Weaver has a good chin & is very durable. He has only been finished once by strikes. He was knocked out with an illegal knee in his UFC debut.
Brok Weaver is a good grappler, and a brown belt in Jiu-Jitsu. Weaver is strong in the clinch, even at 170 lbs. He will dig nice underhooks, land short shots and hit trips & body locks. He has good head positioning. Weaver is very good with dirty boxing. He will never let opponents rest. He will throw constant knees go to the body & head with hooks & short uppercuts & just work opponents. Weaver will also jump on guillotines & pull guard on them. I don’t like seeing fighters pull guard on guillotines and he shouldn’t do that in the UFC. Weaver will stay connected if opponents try to stand up after the trips and mat return them. Weaver will take the back after getting takedowns as well. Weaver is getting much better at faking pull counters & then ducking under into a blast double. In top position, Weaver has good control & heavy ground & pound. Weaver has good back takes. He was able to get a rear naked choke against Tyler Hill in a recent fight. Weaver was able to scramble back to his feet, and slow cooked Smyth by standing back up and keeping the pressure high. After the initial burst from Smyth, Weaver was largely able to defend all of Smyth’s shots against the cage with nice, wide, heavy hips. He landed some big elbows to the head & knees to the body. Smyth is a very explosive 170 lber, so I think at 155 his takedown defense, and ability to stand up will be even better. Weaver was taken down with some double legs in that fight and controlled against the cage. He was taken down with a single leg vs Kazula Vargas and controlled against the cage which I didn’t like to see. When Weaver gets taken down he is hard to hold down and works to stand up immediately. He is good at bellying down & standing up or giving his back to stand up. Weaver can look a bit slow in the transitions, and Roberts was able to take his back & choke him. Weaver has to be ready to defend takedowns, work the get-ups and get out of bad positions in this fight. Weaver has 3 submissions & has been submitted twice. Weaver has great cardio & will never break but slowed down in his last fight. With a full camp training now at American Top Team I expect his tank to be better.
Turner should be able to dominate Weaver on the feet with his size and power. He has a 100% finish rate and if this fight stays standing then he probably gets a knockout. Weaver could have some success with his boxing, but I don’t see him winning the fight with that and I would think he needs to grab a neck to get a win here. If he can push the pressure and stay in Turner’s face and work in takedowns, then he can win this fight. That is not something I would want to rely on though and Tunrer by knockout is my official pick.
Turner will be priced at $9k here but he is still my preferred play. I think he could finish in round 1 and score over 100 DK points. I am interested in that in all formats and he is going to be one of my top $9k options. He won’t be a core play for me but him and Romanov will be guys I likely click on in the majority of my lineups. Weaver will be a full fade for me with 20 or less lineups. I would probably need 40 or more before I personally start clicking on Weaver’s name.
Winner – Jalin Turner via 2nd round (T)KO
Alexander Romanov vs Rogue Martinez – This fight was put together late in the week, but it looks like the UFC is just bringing in somebody so that Romanov can make his debut and look impressive in it. Romanov was scheduled to fight last weekend and he is a hyped-up prospect, so the UFC wants to get him some highlight reel wins to build him up. That is what likely happens here with Romanov slamming Martinez to the mat and finishing him with GNP or a submission from top. Martinez could have an edge on the feet here and is live for a KO, but it will be hard to stuff takedowns consistently and Romanov will be going for them early and often and he has a big size advantage over Martinez.
Romanov is priced at$8.7k but he is going to be my favorite guy in that range to target. He is going to want to get the fight to the mat asap and look for a finish and I think he can get it in round 1. He could land a lot of GNP strikes that could help his ceiling depending on who the ref is and how much damage they want Martinez to take, but Romanov will be close to a core play for me in hopes of that GNP 1st round finish. Martinez is in play for the KO and if he gets it he will be on the nuts as one of the cheapest guys on the card. I might take 1 shot on that as a hedge but he isn’t a guy I have interest in and I think this is a bad matchup for him.
Winner – Alexander Romanov via 1st round Submission
Bobby Green $9,100 vs Alan Patrick $7,100
Bobby Green
Age: 34
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: Pinnacle MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 7-5-1
Fight Matrix: 28
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -255
Bobby Green has had a career renaissance of sorts. This will be Green’s third fight in 3 months, and he will be looking to make it 3-0 in 2020. Green is arguably undefeated since 2018. His two losses to Francisco Trinaldo & Drakkar Klose are controversial decisions. Green has always been a name that hovered around or in the bottom half of the top fifteen. He fell off a bit after his loss to Barboza but looks to be finally re finding his footing again. Green is a stance switching fighter with good boxing skills. He holds his hands low and uses a lot of head movement and shoulder rolling to avoid punches. He has a great jab to the body & head and will follow that jab with a hard, right hook or straight-right hand. He has a nice overhand right. He has a nice check left hook. He likes to throw oblique kicks to the knees, and front kicks to the body. He catches kicks well and will return with counter punches. He will throw nice round kicks to the body & head, and he keeps heavy forward pressure and volume on opponents. He lands 5 significant strikes per minute, He will walk opponents down with his hands by his side, countering and landing hard body shots. He is hittable with overhands, but he has a great chin and rolls with a lot of shots lessening the impact. He has the ability to get dropped and hurt badly such as vs Lando Vannata and recover and perform. He has 8 KO/TKO’s and has only been finished twice with strikes.
Bobby Green is a former wrestler, and a strong grappler. He is very athletic and can close the distance into the clinch quickly. He does a good job of digging an underhook, pushing his opponents to the cage and landing knees to the body & elbows to the head. He was landing nasty punches and elbows in the pocket against Eric Koch. He will attempt body lock takedowns, and he has good slam double legs, but he rarely puts much effort into getting the fight to the ground. He has great takedown defense and is extremely hard to hold down. If opponents can put him on his back, he isn’t very dangerous, and they don’t have to really worry about getting submitted. On top, he has good submissions. He has a nice arm triangle & good rear naked chokes. He has 9 career submissions, but only one in the UFC. He has been submitted two times himself. He has phenomenal cardio, and usually is stronger in the third round than the first.
Alan Patrick
Age: 37
Height: 5’11
Weight: 155
Reach: 74”
Gym: X Gym
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 11 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +215
Alan Patrick makes his long-awaited return to the octagon September 12th. We haven’t seen Patrick since his TKO loss to Scott Holtzman all the way back in October of 2018. Patrick has had four fights scheduled for 2020 all get cancelled for one reason or another, but I’m not sure why he took all of 2019 off. At 37 years old we will have to see how Patrick comes back looking. Patrick’s style relies a lot on athletic ability. He is a super athletic, fast twitch muscle type of fighter. He has a long reach and closes the distance quickly. Patrick likes to enter range with straight line blitzes. He will enter with straight punches & looping hooks. He does a very good job of feinting level changes & shooting that straight-left, one-two to the head or body. Patrick throws a lot of front kicks to the body. He will throw some crazy spinning kicks. Patrick runs a lot, has good movement and his blitzes are very fast. He is a tricky style to fight. Once fighters get a beat on what he’s trying to do though, he is very beatable. He needs to threaten the takedown for his striking to be effective. If opponents can take that away with forward pressure, he really struggles. He’s low volume and doesn’t set his strikes up well. He overextends on his punches & holds his hands completely down in general. Holtzman was able to pull counter him a lot & ultimately dropped him in the third. Patrick is not a great striker & Green will butcher him in a standup match. In both of Patrick’s losses he was knocked out. Alan Patrick has four knockout wins.
Alan Patrick has one objective in the cage, get the fight to the mat. Patrick has fast level changes & is constantly shooting. He will shoot singles & doubles and if he can’t finish, he is good at pushing his opponents to the cage. From there, he has solid chain wrestling, trips & throws in the clinch. On top, Patrick is a blanket. He isn’t super dangerous, he will just stay inside his opponent’s full guard, control and chip away with elbows and punches. Patrick Just tends to take what opponents give him. If they want to keep their guard closed, he will just stay in guard. When they look for submissions or to stand up, Patrick is good at taking the back. I have seen Patrick put in pretty deep armbars in fights. I have seen Patrick go for sacrifice throws in the clinch before & give up top position. Stevie Ray was able to take his back & mount him during their fight. In his fight with Holtzman, Patrick seemed reluctant to want to shoot takedowns, and I think that’s because he didn’t want to end up on bottom & for good reason. We saw the couple times he did attempt takedowns, they were stuffed & Holtzman smashed him from top position. Holtzman was able to take Patrick down against the cage also. The sequence of elbows that finished the fight were absolutely brutal. Patrick attacked with some leg lock attempts, but Holtzman dominated on top. Patrick is a very tough guy & weaponizes cardio. He finds time to rest on the feet, but when he blitzes, he’s explosive & he can grapple all day as long as he has time to rest on top. His top control is usually good & he’s not a great fighter but is tricky and tough to beat. He isn’t a finisher, even on the ground, with just two career rear naked chokes, but he’s undefeated in decisions at 9-0.
Green has a big edge in the striking department in this fight and he can knock Patrick out, or just clearly win the striking exchanges to win a decision. He will need to stuff takedowns for that decision win though because that is all Patrick should be looking to do in this fight. Patrick needs to get the fight to the mat and if he can then he can win with top control or a submission. Patrick is 37 years old now though and looked pretty bad in his last fight almost 2 years ago. Green is the pick here, but he will probably spend some time on his back, likely early in the fight and the longer it goes the more it favors him.
Early in the week I would have said Patrick is my preferred play here because if he wins it will be grappling heavy and he will have multiple takedowns in each round. Now, Green is my preferred play because I have a hard time seeing Patrick be able to have that wrestling heavy game play at 39 years old, during a pandemic, after not fighting for 2 years. I think the longer this fight goes the more it will favor Green and I think a round 2 or 3 KO is in play for Green. He did also have 125 DK points in his last fight, so I like that output for Green and this fight won’t be close on the feet. I want some Green exposure this week and he is my 3rd or 4th favorite $9k option. Patrick might be a fade with 20 lineups, but I could see him making the pool just because we know he wants to wrestle and if it works out for him he will score well.
Winner – Bobby Green via Unanimous Decision
Roosevelt Roberts $8,400 vs Kevin Croom
Roosevelt Roberts
Age: 26
Height: 6’2
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: Cortez Martial Arts
From: California
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 73
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -115
Roosevelt Roberts is finally getting his wish. Roberts has been calling out Matt Frevola for over a year now every chance he gets and is finally getting his wish. Roberts is a solid prospect also but faltered his last fight against Jim Miller. On the feet, he has good physical gifts, but really isn’t the greatest striker. Roberts is solid when he can go forward. He will work behind his jab & one-two. Roberts will throw the straight down the middle as a lead a lot as well. Roberts has fast hands when fighters stand in front of him & will put together some nice, straight punching combos. Roberts will mix knees into his combinations which are dangerous. Roberts is good at switching stances and looks ambidextrous. He was sitting down & throwing his straights with more power his last fight hurting Weaver a couple times. He doesn’t throw many kicks at all, which I don’t get, with his frame he should be very good at kicking. Roberts did throw one low kick & body kick vs Yakovlev which is more than he usually does. If he can start implementing front & round kicks he will be much better at controlling distance. Roberts gets backed up very easily. He is flat footed and gets too involved in trying to counter moving backwards. He will look to touch opponents with soft punches as they come forward & then time a knee up the middle or a harder shot to put them down. The issue with that is Roberts isn’t a power puncher, and fighters can either slip or eat his shots and push him back. When he gets backed up to the cage, he will be stationary, and look to slip & rip. He stands tall, is susceptible to low kicks & body shots, and also uses his height to defend punches to the head. Roberts is a bit of front runner. When he can go forward and dominate the fight he will get more confident, but if opponents walk him down the volume wanes. He likes to try to walk fighters into one shot home runs as they come forward but doesn’t put combos together moving backward. Roberts needs to improve his footwork and try to implement some kicks into his game. That will make him much more dangerous. Roberts just has 3 TKO’s in his career.
Roosevelt Roberts is developing as a grappler. He does look to mix it up & the most dangerous part of his game is probably his guillotine. Roberts doesn’t shoot much in space. He likes to shoot when he can get fighters against the cage. Roberts has a nice single leg, which is essentially the only takedown set up he uses. I have seen him explode into some double legs when he had his back against the fence but that’s few and far between. In top position, Roberts is really not very dangerous. He is a good rider and that’s what he looks to do mainly. He likes to stay on top, float, improve position and win the fight. He won’t look too hard for submissions or throw hard ground & pound. Roberts will sometimes threaten a sub to get some ground & pound in, or rain down some shots if he can get to a dominant position. He does have a good mount, and once he gets there has good control even if he isn’t doing much damage. He takes the back very well. He only has two career submissions from top position which were rear naked chokes. Roberts doesn’t look very strong for the division. He lacks physicality in the tie-ups and can be controlled against the cage and taken down in the clinch. Roberts also struggles against fighters who can set up takedowns with strikes. Once Vinc Pichel realized that, he was able to dominant him with the grappling. Roberts’ takedown defense especially against chain wresting is poor. What he does have is that dangerous guillotine. He will snatch that up when fighters come in to take him down and finish the fight or force them to go to their backs. He was able to threaten Yakovlev with it in round three of his last match, forced him to his back, and won the decisive round and fight 29-28 by riding him out. Roberts is a tough, scrappy guy and will be in there for three rounds. He can break a bit in fights but seems to always at least stay dangerous. Off his back, he is not very good though. He will lay flat & not offer much. He can be controlled & dominated. Roberts did threaten an armbar in his guard last fight, and is improving a big off his back, but still showed a bad get-up game. Miller in his last fight submitted him out relative ease, showing he still needs a lot of improvement there. Roberts has 5 career subs. His cardio is a bit questionable, but not bad. He definitely will be at a cardio disadvantage in this one.
Croom is taking this fight on one days’ notice after Frevola pulled out on weigh-in day. Croom’s nickname is “The Hard-Hitting Hillbilly” and that explains what his game plan should be here. He is likely going to need to knock Roberts out to get the win because Roberts is the better grappler and from what I saw on film he should be the better striker as well. I could also see Croom maybe choking Roberts out if he can get his back, I just don’t see him having much success grappling against Roberts on a days’ notice, but he does have some grappling chops so it’s possible. If Roberts can avoid being knocked out or choked out, he wins this fight and he should win it pretty clearly.
Roberts is going to be a popular play this week because he will likely be a big favorite at only $8.4k. I am on board though and he is probably going to be close to a core play for me and he would be a lock in cash games assuming he is a big favorite. I won’t be anywhere near all-in though because he could take this fight easy and win 30-27 where he doesn’t score high enough, especially when half the field or more owns him. The ownership is the only thing really keeping me away, but it could be high enough that it is worth fading this fight if you are only making a couple lineups and going after the big $50k. With 20 or less lineups, Croom is going to be a fade for me. I wouldn’t X him out of my pool if I was making 50 though and nobody will be on him this weekend, so he could be an OK contrarian play if he is able to get that choke or the KO.
Winner – Roosevelt Roberts via 2nd round Submission
Julia Avila $9,400 vs Sijara Eubanks $6,800
Julia Avila
Age: 32
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Junkyard Dogs Fight Team
From: California
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 11
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -290
Julia Avila is a bit stiff as a striker but is explosive and hits hard. She is extremely aggressive. Avila has a very nice jab, a good straight-right hand & one-two. Avila will close the distance with straight punch combos and throw inside hooks. She will close the distance with excellent left hook, straight-right hand combination. She can be explosive with hook combinations & close the distance quickly. She landed a nasty overhand right that rocked Pannie Kinziad in her last match. Avila will mix in some uppercuts & body shots. She will let her hands go in combination when opponents are backed against the cage. Avila will throw some nice leg kicks. She can throw the kicks without setting them up at times & get countered. Avila has nasty front kicks to the body & head. She landed a front kick to the face which lead to the finish versus Alexa Connors. Avila is very tough & hits hard. She is willing to eat a shot to give a shot. She dropped Kinziad in a pocket exchange in round 3. Avila does run into punches at times and can be stiff in the pocket & countered. She doesn’t show a ton of finesse in the way she enters and relies a lot on athleticism & power. Avila has 4 knockouts in 8 wins. Her lone loss was due to a hand injury very early in round one.
Julia Avila is a strong grappler. She is a beast & does a lot of weight lifting training. Avila loves to fight in the clinch. She spends a lot of time mauling opponents against the fence. She will use straight punch combinations to close the distance into the clinch. She is very strong, digs underhooks well, and attacks with elbows & knees. Avila has excellent takedown defense. In her fight with Kinziad she showed a heavy sprawl, and quickly circled to the back off a double leg attempt. Kinziad did shake her off the top & landed in full guard, but there was about 5 seconds left in the round. Avila was able to take the back in round 3 also. She has very fast back takes, and great control. Avila has a crushing top game and was advancing to mount with absolute ease & looked like a boulder in top position vs Kinziad. Avila should look to improve her wrestling, because I think she has the strength & a sick top game. Avila has a purple belt, but she has just one submission in her career. Avila has great cardio & doesn’t slowdown in fights.
Sijara Eubanks
Age: 35
Height: 5’3
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Nick Catone’s MMA & Fitness
From: Maryland
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 10
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +245
Sijara Eubanks will be looking to make it two in a row here. She defeated Sarah Moras her last time out in a dominant decision. Eubanks has been disappointing in the UFC and needs to string some wins together to get to where people expected her to be. At 35 years old, maybe she will never get there, we will have to wait and see. She was expected to face Macy Chiasson here, but Chiasson is now being replaced by another tough out in Julia Avila. Eubanks has nice leg kicks & good one-twos. She will close the distance with hook & uppercut combinations. She likes to attack the body to close the distance into the combos. She has pretty decent head movement in the pocket & will throw long combinations. Eubanks also will throw dangerous head kicks. Eubanks is durable & has never been finished. Eubanks throws a lot of volume in the first round, but as the fight goes on she slows down and throws one at a time. Her movement becomes much more labored & she becomes more hittable. Eubanks has 3 KO/TKO’s.
Sijara Eubanks is a Jiu-Jitsu black & a good grappler. She has a good double leg and good timing on her entries. She does a good job of chain wrestling and will use the double to drive her opponents against the cage and then go for a single or change levels and go up top for a body lock. Her single leg from the outside is her most effective takedown. She can shoot from too far out at times though because she is uncomfortable with the striking. She is very heavy on top and throws hard, heavy elbows. When she takes opponents down, she does a good job of staying on top & winning the round. Eubanks has poor cardio, and really slows down in round three. This has cost her a couple of fights. Eubanks only has one submission herself and isn’t a big submission threat.
Avila is the better striker and wrestler here, so she should be able to dictate where this fight takes place. Eubanks is probably the better grappler of the two, but she doesn’t have the wrestling to get Avila to the mat consistently. Avila is the pick here and she should win the fight on the feet and could possibly get a finish.
This fight is mostly a fade for me. Avila is priced too highly to the point where she needs the knockout to be on the optimal lineup and probably in round 1 or 2. I don’t want to rely on that, but I do think she wins, so I don’t have interest in Eubanks either. I will say Eubanks is my preferred play of the two though just because of the pricing and she does have a grappling edge and if she can get a submission at low ownership, she can win somebody $50k. With 20 lineups or less, I doubt this fight makes my player pool.
Winner – Julia Avila via Unanimous Decision
Matt Schnell $8,600 vs Tyson Nam $7,600
Matt Schnell
Age: 30
Height: 5’8
Weight: 125
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Louisiana
UFC Record: 4-3
Fight Matrix: 12
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -105
Matt Schnell is looking to get back on the horse after a first round knockout loss. He has won four out of five fights. Schnell is pretty technical as a striker & going to be the more technical striker in this matchup. Schnell is light on his feet & has solid footwork. He has a nice body & head jab. He has a very nice straight-right hand lead. He will throw a lot of right hooks as well. He will throw a double jab, right hook & double jab, left hook. He has good leg kicks & oblique kicks to the legs. He will throw a straight-right, left uppercut, straight-right combo. He has good hand speed & closes the distance with fast, straight punches. He has nice high kicks & front kicks to the body & head. He does a good job of catching kicks & returning with punches. He is a strong counter striker. He will slip the jab & throw uppercut, straight-right hand combos. He will also throw nice counter fade away left hooks. He does a solid job of moving his head when he enters into range but stays on center line too long at times after he throws his strikes. When fighters get inside they can hit him clean with straight punches. He is a black belt in karate & very fast in & out. On the feet, he’s going to be the better striker. He is a bit chinny, and if Nam lands clean he will hurt Schnell. Schnell doesn’t have a lot of power & only two career KO’s. Schnell has been finished three times by KO/TKO.
Schnell is a good grappler, and it will be interesting how the Jiu-Jitsu will play out. Schnell does a good job of getting double underhooks & pushing opponents to the cage. He will shoot well-timed double legs, but he is not a very active wrestler. He will shoot at the end of rounds to try to steal or seal the round. He also seems to like to wrestle in the third round. He stands tall & fighters can get in on his legs. Hector Sandoval who has a similar style of movement & blitzing in, was able to easily take him down with double legs. He has solid takedown defense against the cage. He will attack with darces also, but he can end up on his back hunting the submissions. He will attack with a nice guillotine to try to counter as well. Off his back, he will throw up triangles & armbars. He got knocked out with very short hammerfists against Sandoval which was a little eye opening. He will attack with submissions at the expense of position & can hold on to submissions for too long. Schnell does have good cardio and can go all three rounds at the same pace. Schnell has 7 career submissions. He has been submitted twice himself.
Tyson Nam
Age: 36
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Sports Lab
From: Oregon
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 58
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -115
Tyson Nam got his first win in his UFC career his last time out. He got a quick knockout over an inexperienced opponent but handled him accordingly. Nam is one of the biggest Flyweights on the roster & may hit the hardest. He is 36 years old, so the time is now if he wants to get a UFC run going. Nam is a pressure fighter on the feet. He is going to want to walk Schnell down, make the cage small and land one of those concussive hooks. Nam has a nice jab that he will double, triple up on to find his range. He will rip the body then go up to the head with hook combinations. Nam has nice body & head kicks as well. He has been pro for 14 years now & isn’t as fast as he once was. Nam likes to load up as well & will throw a couple punch combos, but he isn’t a quick combinations guy with the hands. He is looking to load up & get the one punch knockout. He has even been quoted saying he throws for KO’s. Nam can be low volume though & I feel he has to throw more volume in this fight to win. Nam was basically dominated by Sergio Pettis never getting a beat on him in a frustrating performance. Nam is very durable, but he couldn’t get his own damage off much in that one. Nam has been finished three times by strikes. Nam has 11 KO/TKO’s. He is the most dangerous in round one as well with 8 KO’s.
Tyson Nam is a big guy for 125 & will try to bully opponents. He likes to close the distance into the single collar clinch & hit trips or push opponents to the cage & work from there. Nam has very strong takedown defense. He will dig underhooks & disengage. He will land shots on the break that discourage takedown attempts. It’s hard to get in on his hips. Nam has nice body lock takedowns. Nam likes to stand up in opponent’s guards and rain down big shots. Nam is not a submission guy with only one in his career. He has never been submitted. Nam has good cardio & will have a similar pace all three rounds. Nam can get caught looking for one shot & out volumed, due to that he is 7-7 in decisions. If he doesn’t get the KO it’s a 50/50 chance he’s going to win.
Schnell is the younger fighter and should look like the faster fighter who lands more shots and is more likely to take it to the ground. Nam is the more experienced, powerful and durable fighter though. This is a close fight, but I would personally give the slight edge to Schnell in this one and I think he is more likely to win by submission or decision. The KO is the worry but with 125-pounders I don’t worry about the knockout as much and I think there could be come recency bias in the line with Nam coming off a KO win and Schnell coming off a KO loss.
Nam is going to be a chalky play this week since he is the betting favorite and $1k cheaper than Schnell on DraftKings. Plus, he had a KO in his last fight and Schnell was KO’d, so people will chase that. It could definitely work out, but the ownership is taking me off Nam and I will be underweight to the field. I don’t really see Schnell scoring great though, so I don’t have much interest in him, but he can finish, and I don’t see anybody being on him this week, so I will be playing him for ownership purposes and I think he gets the win. I could see anywhere from 50-95 points from him though so hard to know what we will get, I would think he does not get 10x in a win though.
Winner – Matt Schnell via Unanimous Decision
Billy Quarantillo $9,300 vs Kyle Nelson $6,900
Billy Quarantillo
Age: 31
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: Gracie Tampa South
From: New York
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 50
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -250
Billy Quarantillo has a tough act to follow after his riveting UFC debut. He had an epic scrap with Spike Carlyle winning a close unanimous decision. Quarantillo has won seven fights in a row & is in the best form of his career. Billy Q is a pressure striker on the feet. He has good boxing, throws in combination and mixes it up to the body & head. Quarantillo has a really nice jab and a nasty left hook. It is a long hook and he can land it from very far out. He usually follows that hook with an overhand right or right hook to the body. He will throw nasty hooks and uppercuts inside along with body shots. He drowns opponents with forward pressure. Quarantillo will throw some occasional low kicks, front kicks to the body, but kicks aren’t a big part of his game. Quarantillo will throw a lot of naked low kicks that get him countered. He holds his hands very low & walks into bombs in a lot of fights. He ducks his head a lot by throwing wide, along with getting countered with tighter shots. He also just isn’t the fastest guy overall. In this fight, he should stick to boxing only. He is a zombie that wears the damage & continues to come forward. Quarantillo is willing to take damage & gives out damage in a lot of fights and breaks a lot of guys that way. He has been knocked out with a head kick in the past. Quarantillo has won four of his last five fights via KO/TKO and has seven overall.
Billy Quarantillo is a legit BJJ black belt & strong grappler. In the clinch, he has very good dirty boxing and knees to the body & head. He will jump on front chokes even from standing. In his last match he was able to snap down Jacob Kilburn & attack with an anaconda in round one. He showed aggressive passing ability, and absolutely dominated from mount and the back. Quarantillo showed great balance & control in the mount and went to town with the ground and pound. He showed great ability to ride opponents out and move from the mount to the back as they try to escape. Quarantillo set up an arm triangle that was very close vs Kilburn. He eventually set up a triangle armbar from mount, locked it in and got the tap. If Billy Q gets on top of Nelson, I think he will be in trouble. Quarantillo will use combinations to create entries into takedowns, usually double legs. He doesn’t have the greatest takedowns though. He gets opponents down most of the time by pressuring them and forcing them to shoot. Quarantillo’s takedown defense is not good. He can off balance himself with his punches & squares his hips as he pressures sometimes. Off his back, Quarantillo has a dangerous guard. He will attack with armbars & triangles immediately. He will throw hard elbows while having the triangle locked up. Quarantillo will also roll for leg locks to sweep. He can get dominated by superior grapplers on the mat. When fighters pass his guard, he struggles a bit. He will give up the mount & the back. Kamuela Kirk was able to take his back, and Saul Rogers dominated him with grappling on the ultimate fighter. Nelson is going to have a chance early to finish the fight, and Billy has to be very careful in the first few minutes. If he can get Nelson fatigued, he should dominate on top. Quarantillo has 4 submission victories & has never been submitted.
Kyle Nelson
Age: 29
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 71”
Gym: Muskoka Kickboxing
From: Canada
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 162
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +210
Kyle The Monster Nelson picked up his first UFC win in dominant fashion with a first round knockout. He went into enemy territory taking out Polo Reyes in Mexico. Prior to that Nelson had lost his previous two UFC bouts. Nelson’s nickname fits him though. He is one of the biggest FWs in the division & a dangerous man. Nelson’s last four wins have all been first round finishes. Nelson looks to be fairly well rounded. Nelson has a solid jab & good straight-right hand. He will throw nice one-twos. He has a good counter left hook. He has a very nice step-in knee to the body. He has nice leg kicks, along with front & round kicks to the body. His front kick to the body is pretty nasty & he hurt Diego Ferreira with it. He will throw a nice left hook, right uppercut combination. He comes out fast & is dangerous in round one. He has good power & forces a lot of opponents to shoot bad takedowns due to his pressure. He was putting it to Ferreira a bit before gassing out. Nelson likes to use a high guard, so he is hittable to the body. He does seem to slow way down in round 3. He has 4 KO/TKO’s, all in round one. 7 of his 9 finishes are in round one. He was TKO’d for the first time against Matt Sayles.
Nelson is a solid grappler. He doesn’t go for takedowns very often or the clinch. He will shoot reactive double legs on occasion. In his last fight, he did land a nice, reactive double leg on Sayles. He was able to use the single leg to circle to the back & take him down against the cage. If he gets top position I could see him having a lot of success. He has good takedown defense, can reverse, and take top position. He does let fighters get in on his legs & against the cage I feel higher level wrestlers will be able to take him down. He has heavy elbows in top position & good control. He will cut opponents open with big elbows. He will progress to mount and likes to take the back & get rear naked chokes. He was able to take the back & attack with a tight rear naked choke that almost finished Sayles. He also had a nice guillotine he attempted. Nelson showed the ability to attack the legs to create scrambles off his back. He did allow Sayles to posture up & land some big ground & pound. The fighters he has beaten on the mat are not very high level. He was finished with G&P against Ferreira & taken down fairly easily. Nelson has 4 submissions & has only been submitted once.
This looks like a good matchup for Quarantillo and he should have the edge everywhere. He does start fights slow and Nelson starts fast, so the opening minutes are where Nelson needs to capitalize and look for the early finish. If he can’t get it then Quarantillo is going to take over this fight and he could finish him late or just clearly win rounds 2 and 3.
Billy Q is the preferred play here and he would have been one of my higher owned plays before Turner and Romanov were added to the card. I think this is a great matchup for Billy and I think he can get the finish in any round really. I still want exposure to him, but he is going to be my 3rd or 4th favorite $9k options now so I probably will be close to field weight. I could see him not scoring a lot in round 1 and picking it up after that, but maybe that won’t be enough time to get more than 10x his $9.3k price tag. Nelson is in play for GPPs because if he wins this fight I would think he wins in round 1. I will probably have 1-2 of him in 20 lineups, but if you wanted to go more or less than that I wouldn’t talk you off it.
Winner – Billy Quarantillo via 3rd round Submission
Mike Rodriguez $8,800 vs Ed Herman $7,400
Mike Rodriguez
Age: 31
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 82”
Gym: Lauzon MMA
From: Massachusetts
UFC Record: 2-2-1
Fight Matrix: 81
Last Fought: 2 Weeks
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -245
Mike Rodriguez is jumping right back into the octagon following a quick knockout victory over Marcin Prachnio. This will be his second fight in three weeks. He showed what he’s famous for once again finishing in round one. Rodriguez has nine career first round knockouts. On the feet, Rodriguez is long, rangy, and very athletic. He throws vicious kicks. Rodriguez isn’t really the best boxer. He throws nice, fast, straight punches down the pipe. He leaves a lot of openings in boxing range though & is open in exchanges. Kicks are where it’s at with Rodriguez. He has a stabbing front kick to the body. Rodriguez throws a lot of low kicks & oblique kicks. He has nice front & round kicks to the head. Rodriguez throws nice flying knees. He is a dynamic guy who will have a massive size speed & reach advantage against Herman. He is a tough guy & will throw down, but he has been knocked out before. In this fight he should be good at range. All nine of Rodriguez’s KO/TKO’s happened in the first.
Mike Rodriguez got another yet another clinch knockout in his last fight. He is very dangerous there. If he can get the Muay Thai plum how he did against Prachnio, fighters are in trouble. He has nasty knees & elbows. Rodriguez can be taken down in the clinch though. John Allan was able to tire him out with forward pressure, clinch up with him and hit body lock takedowns. Rodriguez isn’t the easiest guy to take down, and will create some scrambles, but he doesn’t want to grapple here. On the mat, I have seen Rodriguez make a lot of mistakes in the Jiu-Jitsu realm and put himself in positions to get submitted. He has been swept as well. Rodriguez does only have one submission loss vs Kevin Hatley. He has a couple submissions on his record, but that’s not going to happen vs Herman. Rodriguez has a questionable gas tank. He definitely slows down after round one. In his three fights that went to decision he lost all three.
Ed Herman
Age: 39
Height: 6’1
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: Team Quest
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 12-10-1
Fight Matrix: 33
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +205
Ed Herman has gone through hell trying to get a fight in 2020. This is his 6th scheduled fight of the year, and he fought zero times. He was scheduled to fight Da Un Jung twice, Gerald Meerschaert twice, and John Allan, but ultimately is getting “Slo” Mike Rodriguez. Herman has looked good as of late and is riding a two-fight winning streak. Herman in his last three fights has performed surprisingly well. He still has that fire & desire & is just a tough ass dude. Herman has been in the UFC for 14 and a half years. He has to be one of the longest tenured fighters in UFC history. Herman may not be as athletic as he was when he first joined the UFC, but he definitely still has something left. His striking is not bad at all. He hits hard, has good counter punching ability and can take a shot. He usually has to get hit a bit to get started, but I actually rate him as the better striker in this matchup. Herman has a nice, stiff jab. Herman was throwing a nice jab to low kick, or left hook to low kick combination in his last fight. He was throwing some heavy low kicks against Ibragimov. Herman has a nice straight-right hand. Herman likes the left hook, overhand right combination, and vice versa. He will switch up which punch he leads with and switch up the placement of the hook attacking the body at times as well. Herman throws a lot of volume and is always walking his opponent down and making them work. His defense is not good at all. He holds his hands low, is slow and just very hittable. He has a hell of a chin and doesn’t mind getting hit. Herman looked as if he demoralized Ibragimov a bit in his last match by eating his shots. His counter punching is also dangerous. Even if fighters hit him, he will come back with short hooks or overhands and it makes them hesitant.
Ed Herman is a good submission grappler. He is an original Team Quest member and has had good takedown defense for over a decade now. In the clinch is where Herman is the most dangerous. He has nasty knees, and powerful elbows. We saw Herman finish Pat Cummins in a recent fight with a big clinch elbow. In his last match with Ibragimov, he did an excellent job of staying busy in the clinch. He was framing and throwing hard elbows & knees and keeping the volume high even with his back pressed against the cage. He is very good at digging a strong underhook, controlling a wrist and throwing elbows/dirty boxing. He was able to bust up Ibragimov with the clinch strikes & really dominated that fight. Herman isn’t a super active seeker of the takedown in recent years. The thing is with this fight, Rodriguez is a guy who has notoriously bad takedown defense, and maybe it would be smart to get on top. Herman is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu, and maybe he would feel he can avoid the submissions keep the top control and win rounds. He throws some heavy ground & pound from the top also. Ultimately though I think Herman will probably just want to stand and bang. When fighters do take down Herman, it’s usually off him throwing a kick. We have seen Herman dominated on the mat a few times, most recently against CB Dolloway. He was taken down by Ibragimov in the third round but was able to attack with elbows and submissions off his back. He did more on bottom than his opponent did on top. Herman does counter takedown attempts with a good guillotine. Herman is active off his back with armbars, triangles, and does have solid get-ups, and up kicks off his back. He will attack the legs as well and has pretty good leg locks. Herman does have thirteen submissions in his career, but only four in the UFC. He has been submitted six times himself. When you go back and look at some of the fighters who have submitted Herman though, they are legends of the game. Herman has been submitted by Kazuo Misaki, Joe Doerksen, Demian Maia, and Jacare Souza. Those are some elite ground specialists. Overall, Herman is a veteran with a very solid, well-rounded workman like game. His cardio is good, he is tough, durable and never will look for a way out. He is a stiff test for a lot of guys.
Rodriguez should be the much faster and more dangerous fighter on the feet here, but Herman could turn this into a brawl and have success on the feet that way and possibly land a KO. Herman should look to get this fight to the mat though because he could have an edge there and is live for a submission win. Rodriguez is the pick in this one, but he isn’t a guy we should be rushing to the window to bet at almost 3-1 over a crafty vet.
Rodriguez is the preferred play here and he has a good chance at 100+ points here. He has a 100% finish rate and a KO is the most likely outcome in this fight as well. If he gets it in round 1, he probably makes the optimal lineup. I will be overweight to Rodriguez because I think that is what happens. I want a small amount of Herman too though because if Rodriguez doesn’t get the KO early I could see him losing this fight. I don’t think Herman will have much ownership either, so he could be a nice contrarian play, but also a hedge with as much Rodriguez as I want. This will be a fight that I target in more than half my lineups this week and I don’t think we will need any judges for this one.
Winner – Mike Rodriguez via 1st round (T)KO
Andrea Lee $8,900 vs Roxanne Modafferi $7,300
Andrea Lee
Age: 31
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 69.5”
Gym: Karate Mafia MMA
From: Louisiana
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 22
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -325
Two top ten staples are looking to bounce back as Andrea Lee takes on Roxanne Modafferi. Lee has lost two split decisions in a row after a 3-0 start to her UFC career. She is entrenched as the big favorite once again in this matchup, even after losing their first encounter. Modafferi was able to get the decision win over Lee in Invicta in 2014. That was just Lee’s third pro fight & I’m sure she’s looking to show her improvements Saturday night. Lee has good head movement & distance control. She has a nice jab. She has a very nice left hook, straight-right hand combination. Lee mixes the target up & will rip the body with jabs & big hook combinations. Lee will throw some inside, outside low kicks. Lee has nasty front kicks to the body as well. She will throw spinning back kicks & front leg sidekicks to the body. Lee has nice round kicks to the body with both legs. In her last match, she struggled with the volume striking & forward pressure of Joanne Calderwood. She ate a lot of body shots & slowed down big time in round three. Lee does have a good chin & can eat a lot of big shots. She’s never been finished in her career by strikes. Lee isn’t a big power hitter. She has just two KO/TKO’s in her career.
Andrea Lee is a beast for the division & extremely strong. She dominates in the clinch. She has nasty knees to the body & head and can just maneuver these girls around. She will land a lot of trip takedowns, and head & arm throws. She is very good at getting a tight waist, circling to the back & getting suplexes. She has great cardio & wears these girls out in the clinch. She has a very heavy top game. She likes to pressure pass to dominant positions. She likes to get the crucifix from side control & is a great back taker. She has excellent control there, even if she is high on the back she can readjust & flattens most opponents out. She will almost use a full nelson position to flatten opponents out. She is good at transiting from the back position to an armbar. She has big G&P from there & good rear naked chokes. She has strong takedown defense. She has a good sprawl, can pull her hips back quickly, and digs strong double underhooks. Lee will attack with triangles & armbars in her guard. She has good scrambling ability & is hard to hold down. She was taken down by a nice double leg takedown in her last match. In giving her back to stand up she can give up position at times. Lee has always had issues with wrestlers. Lee has 4 submissions & been submitted one time.
Roxanne Modafferi
Age: 37
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 69”
Gym: Syndicate MMA
From: Nevada
UFC Record: 3-5
Fight Matrix: 14
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +265
Roxanne Modafferi dropped a decision to Lauren Murphy her last time out. She hasn’t been able to string wins together in the UFC, going win loss for her entire tenure. She has alternated wins & losses in her last seven fights. Modafferi is never going to be an elite striker, but she has steadily worked on it. She has improved her footwork a lot and now throws straighter punches & hits harder. She dropped Maycee Barber with a straight punch in her last match. She has a solid jab, good head movement and improved lateral movement. She will throw straight punches, but sometimes struggles to find range and throws at air. She has ok hand speed and can land the straight-right hand. She will throw inside leg kicks, high kicks and tries to be tricky throwing question mark kicks and spinning backfists. She tries to keep high volume and throw a lot of shots. She is much better now at going first & being willing to take a shot to give one. She doesn’t have knockout power, but she has a strong chin and lives up to her nickname of the Happy Warrior. She has only been finished twice by strikes in her career. She will finish fighters when she can get mount position & has 6 KO/TKO’s.
Modafferi is a strong grappler, and a black belt in judo and BJJ. She has gotten better at entries for her judo trips and clinch takedowns. She was able to continuously get ahold of Barber in the clinch & take her down. She got a nice double leg takedown against Barb Honchak and has pretty solid timing. When she gets on top, she will land hard, heavy elbows and go for the finish. She probably has the best mount in the division, and when she gets there has phenomenal control and throws hard punches and elbows. She has finished many recent fights this way. She has good submissions like armbars & RNCs. She can get bullied in the clinch and controlled like she was vs Emily Whitmire and Nikko Montano. She was taken down by Sijara Eubanks multiple times. She doesn’t have great takedown defense, but she is good off her back. She has good armbars, triangles and is active off her back. She can get hit with ground & pound elbows. She slows down as the fight goes on but showed strong cardio in her last fight. She has 6 submissions & has been submitted 3 times in her career.
Lee should get the win here. She is the better striker and wrestler, so she should be able to keep this standing and she should have a lot of success on the feet. For Modafferi to win this fight, she is going to need to land takedowns and keep top control long enough to win the round or lock up a submission. If she can get top control, I think she can have success keeping it there, but I don’t think she can consistently get Lee to the mat and she likely gets pieced up on the feet for most of this fight.
Lee is the preferred play here and if I was playing cash I think she would make that lineup. She does have high output on the feet and she should dominate the striking here, and possibly finish. I was going to be overweight to Lee before all the changes happened to the card, but I will still get exposure and will be closer to field weight now. Roxy is in play if you think the grappling works, I just don’t see it personally, so she is a fade for me.
Winner – Andrea Lee via Unanimous Decision
Khama Worthy $8,500 vs Ottman Azaitar $7,700
Khama Worthy
Age: 33
Height: 5’11
Weight: 155
Reach: 74”
Gym: Pittsburgh Academy
From: Pennsylvania
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 50
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -135
Khama Worthy will be looking to make it 3-0 in the UFC. He was expected to fight Ottman Azaitar in April and seems excited about the matchup. Worthy has pulled off two massive upsets in his first two UFC fights & he enters the slight favorite here. Worthy is a very dangerous counter striker. He stands right in front of opponents, flat footed & dares them to throw at him. Worthy is very athletic, fast twitch, and uses a lot of head movement & herky jerky movement. Worthy throws a really nice, stiff jab. He has really nice, fast, straight punch counters. He will shoot the one-twos or straight-right hand to the body & head. He has sharp, dangerous counters. He likes to explode into range with left hook, right hook combos, and when he connects he stuns a lot of opponents. When he gets in the pocket, he is super crazy. He will throw wide hooks, uppercuts, jump knees, front kicks to the face, but doesn’t set things up. He will throw nicely timed knees to the head. He even throws standing hammerfists. He is a fun guy to watch & puts it all out there. His style is to let opponents throw or touch him, so he can fire back. That obviously is a dangerous game & he’s been knocked out because of it. Worthy has 9 knockouts in his career but has been finished five times by KO/TKO. He has been undefeated since 2018 and hasn’t been knocked out in over three years.
Khama Worthy is not the greatest grappler or wrestler. We saw once again in his last fight he can be dominated on the mat. He did catch a submission in the third round, but round two he gave up a lot of bad positions. Luis Pena was able to take Worthy down, mount him, take the back and win the round by spending the majority of it in a dominant position. He gets taken down extremely easily whether it’s with a shot from the outside or a clinch takedown. He will try to dig double underhooks & disengage, but his wrestling is not UFC level. His submission defense is not bad, and he does have an opportunistic guillotine.
Ottman Azaitar
Age: 30
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: Jupps Fight Team
From: Morocco
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 122
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W12
Betting Odds: +115
Ottman Azaitar kept his perfect record with a brutal KO of Teemu Packalen in his UFC debut. He is 12-0 overall & the former Brave LW champion. Azaitar is a powerful, but very wild striker. Azaitar is very aggressive & throws a lot of volume. He will throw a lot of kicks, one-twos, and jab, overhand rights early. He will throw leaping lefts hooks to the body & head. He will throw nice left hooks to the body to right hooks to the head. He throws a lot of volume & when he gets hit, he just returns with punches of his own. It makes it a 50-50 fight & he’s been dropped several times. He does have big power & has been able to win those kind of knockdown, drag out fights so far. He has nice leg kicks, as well as good round & front kicks to the body. He will throw occasional head kicks. At times his kicks come slow & sloppy. His defense on the feet is poor. He holds his hands low to begin with, & when he punches he doesn’t bring them back to his face. He holds his chin right in the air and doesn’t move his head. He will sit in the pocket & throw wide hooks & uppercuts but leaves himself super open to hit. I will say in Azaitar’s last fight he did a better job of using the jab to find range, he stayed more disciplined and countered. He landed a counter overhand right that face planted Packalen. Ottman has 8 KO/TKO’s including 4 in a row. He has never been finished by strikes. He is tough & fearless. When he gets hurt he becomes dangerous.
Ottman Azaitar is a decent grappler. Azaitar has good single & double legs. In the clinch, he has nasty knees to the body. He will dig double underhooks, push opponents to the cage, and get body locks or double legs. On top, he is very aggressive with ground & pound. He also has a good front head lock position. He snaps opponents down, and his guillotine is impressive. Azaitar isn’t super dangerous with his Jiu-Jitsu. In his two fights that went to the third round, he did rely on a lot of wrestling and top control to win. Azaitar has good takedown defense and is hard to hold down when fighters do take him down. He has two submissions in his career. Azaitar has very good cardio & fights at a crazy pace. He has the ability to get hurt & recover. He is a fun, wild finisher.
This should be a banger for as long as it lasts. Both guys go for the kill and either could land the knockout blow. Worthy is going to be the bigger guy and likely the one with the grappling edge. This fight should play out on the feet though unless a fighter is hurt and uses takedowns as a way to recover, so it is hard to see how this one plays out other than chaos. The line looks about right in this one though where Worthy should be a slight favorite. I don’t see any value in the current line but will lean with Worthy to get the finish.
I want exposure to both side of this fight. Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision is -275 and I could see that moving to 3-1. I don’t think this one goes to a decision, but I don’t see how it plays out, so I don’t have a real lean here. Azaitar would be my preferred play because he is cheaper and has the 100+ upside, but the field will likely be more on his side for those reasons and that is pushing me to Worthy as my preferred play. I would rather just be different than the field in a close fight like this that could end in KO from either guy. I will have this fight in more than half my lineups but likely more so the Worthy side for ownership purposes.
Winner – Khama Worthy via 2nd round (T)KO
Angela Hill $8,200 vs Michelle Waterson $8,000
Angela Hill
Age: 34
Height: 5’3
Weight: 115
Reach: 64.5”
Gym: Alliance MMA
From: New York
UFC Record: 7-8
Fight Matrix: 14
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -125
Angela Hill has been nothing short of a workhorse lately. She has been the most active fighter in the UFC over the last couple of years. This will be Hill’s fourth fight of the year, and 8th fight since March of 2019. She is getting a big opportunity here to headline a UFC event. This will be her first UFC headliner, and against another notable name in Michelle Waterson. Hill finally had a good performance against a name opponent her last time out. She dropped & gave Claudia Gadelha a really tough time but dropped a highly disputed split decision on the scorecards. Hill has worked a different type of stand-up game in recent fights. She doesn’t strike at range as much anymore, instead relying more on one shot attacks and the clinch. She does angle well & has nice drive, straight punches. Hill throws heavy low kicks. She has good movement on the outside, using false start, stutter step movements to throw off her blitzes and mixes it in with a lot of kicks and teips to the body and high kicks as well. She has great leg kicks off her blitzes and usually that is the shot she finishes with after she throws her left hand. She has a very nice jab & good left hook. She will throw a right uppercut, left hook combo. She will attack the body with punches & kicks. She is great at mixing it up & targeting all areas. She will throw a left hook to leg kick combination. She will fake the left hook & throw a leg kick. She has a great overhand left and solid timing catching fighters coming in with it. She is good at moving her head in the pocket and rolling with shots to lessen the impact. She will slip & return with nice punching combinations. Hill has always been really tough & I see her being the girl going forward and throwing more volume in this contest. Hill is in a groove, confident & has felt big power by now. Her Muay Thai experience should also serve her well in this contest. Hill has back to back TKO victories with elbows, and still has yet to be knocked out.
Angela Hill is getting better at grappling. She showed that in recent performances. She has improved her clinch control a lot, has good head positioning and dangerous elbows. She also has decent trips in the clinch & when she gets on top she is very good with ground & pound. We saw her nasty finish of Hannah Cifers a few months ago. Hill also has gained confidence off her back. She will attack with triangles, armbars and has nice elbows from inside her guard. She still has been taken down by strikes like Loma Lookboonmee and Yan Xiaonan. I will give Hill credit, she has really improved her game off her back. When Hill got taken down in the first round against Gadelha, she got taken down directly into side control & beat up a little bit on the ground but was worked her way back to her feet at the end of the round. Gadelha never attempted any more takedowns after that first round and just isn’t the same Gadelha anymore, she slowed way down, but still made the third round competitive even though I think Hill deserved the win. If Waterson takes her down, I do think she at least will be able to control on top if she gets takedowns, and Hill really needs to show better TDD. Hill has been submitted three times in her career. Her cardio is questionable, she does throw a lot of volume, but she’s been tired multiple times in round three.
Michelle Waterson
Age: 34
Height: 5’3
Weight: 115
Reach: 62”
Gym: Jackson Wink MMA
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 5-4
Fight Matrix: 9
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +105
Michelle Waterson needs to bounce back with a win here. She has lost two in a row & her last fight was terrible. Prior to that she was on a three-fight winning streak & looked great. Waterson has a big name and is very marketable, so I don’t think she’s in danger of being cut, but a loss would end her title dreams. Waterson has not won a fight in a year in a half. It’s a direct contrast to Hill who has won 4 fights since the last time Waterson won one. Waterson has really improved her footwork & movement on the feet. She is much less stationary, and circles off the cage better. In this fight, Waterson has to be a moving target. She has to be on the outside moving laterally, giving different angles & not standing in front of Hill. Waterson is much better at controlling distance than in the past also. Waterson uses a snappy jab and has a nice one-two. She will throw a lot of straight & overhand right shots. Waterson doesn’t like exchanging and being in the pocket. She has started to implement some takedown feints & come up into uppercuts. She has good inside, outside leg kicks. Waterson uses a lot of oblique kicks to the legs. She likes to throw a sidekick to the knee to a left hook combination. She has a very nice straight & overhand right. She uses a lot of front leg sidekicks to the body & head. She will throw some nice round kicks to the body & head. Waterson has very nice spinning heel kicks, along with question mark kicks. Waterson’s boxing is still not very good. She falls into punches at times and is very open to straight punch counters when she throws her overhand right. When Waterson gets hit clean, her defense is not good. She will reach to grab instead of trying to defend, and even turns away at times. Rose Namajunas was able to land a nasty head kick because Waterson turned away from her a bit. Her last 3 opponents all have plodding footwork & weren’t able to cut her off well. Waterson can back up with her lead hand down as well, which I think could get her in trouble. Waterson is going to be the smaller fighter who is at a power disadvantage. She has just three career TKO’s. Waterson has a good chin & is tough, but does get marked up a lot, and I don’t think she has the greatest chin. She has just been TKO’d one time in her career, but she was dropped & submitted by Namajunas.
Michelle Waterson is a good grappler with improved wrestling skills. She is still small for the division and can get out muscled in the clinch. Tecia Torres was able to beat her up & move her around in the clinch. She does look to be improving with her strength. She was able to land some big elbows & knees in the clinch vs Kowalkiewicz and controlled her against the cage. Waterson does have one of the best hip tosses in the game. She is able to get a lot of these girls with it, including Torres & Kowalkiewicz. Waterson will also land nice body lock & trip takedowns. In her match with Jedrzejczyk, she was able to get the back & get close on a rear naked choke. Waterson has a very fast single leg shot and chains it into a double leg very well. In top position, Waterson is more about control recently. She stays very heavy & works short shots while maintaining position. Waterson can be inactive in top position and has had trouble with submission defense inside opponent’s guards. Cortney Casey was able to put her in some armbar positions, and Torres had a close triangle. Waterson is one of those girls who is very hard to submit and can scramble out of very tight chokes & armbars. Waterson has been submitted 3 times. Namajunas was able to submit her in the UFC with a rear naked choke after dropping her. Waterson does like to jump on the back & got a nice rear naked choke after a hip toss vs Paige VanZant. Almost all of Waterson’s submissions have been via rear naked choke. Waterson has 9 submissions overall.
This is a close fight and Hill gets the edge on the feet with Waterson getting the edge on the mat. Either can hang in either area of course but that is where their success should come in this fight and it’s hard to see how this one plays out over the course of 5-rounds. Waterson’s edge on the mat is probably bigger than Hill’s edge on the feet so that is making this a dog or pass fight for me at this point. This feels like a split decision type fight, but the slight lean goes to Waterson.
Stack this fight in cash would be the first thing I do when building a cash lineup this week. We have 5-rounds to work with and this could be a high-volume fight. I think you can stack it in small field GPPs too. I will also be close to all-in on this fight in GPPs because they are the mid-range fight and with 25-minutes to work with, and I have a hard time seeing the winner not score more than 10x, and either could get to 100. I will likely be a bit higher on Waterson this week but no issues if you like Hill more and I think going 7-3 either way is fine. I would think I am closer to 50% Waterson and 40% Hill. Either way, this is one of the best fight if not the best fight to target on the card. I will leave a few lineups without it in case it is back and forth to where the winner only scores 85 in a win, maybe that won’t win $50k. This should be a fun one though so get as much exposure as you want.
Winner – Michelle Waterson via Split Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown & be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building & I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend & enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks & predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice & fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: BigMarleyMMA.com
- Bets are on a 1-5u scale with 1u = $100.
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