BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC 253 Location – Abu Dhabi
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card back at Fight Island. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $20 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $500k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games & look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience & you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player & it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups & 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights, & hopefully I can help you build some winning lineups:
Khadis Ibragimov $8,700 vs Danilo Marques $7,500
Khadis Ibragimov
Age: 25
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 78.5”
Gym: Sambo-Piter
From: Russia
UFC Record: 0-3
Fight Matrix: 81
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: -155
Khadis Ibragimov is getting right back on the horse & I’m not sure that’s the best idea. He was knocked out just one month ago and jumping right back in the cage. He will be taking on a fighter who hasn’t fought in over 2.5 years. His striking is super wild. He has power, but really just throws jabs & looping right hands to close the distance. He will throw one-twos, has a good chin & is willing to bang. He is still a good athlete though & the risk of the takedown makes opponents hesitant to let go. He will eventually get inside & get it where he wants it. His striking is not good though. It’s just wild, crazy hooks. He keeps a pace in round one he can’t sustain for the whole fight. He is always just looking to counter with a big, slapping shot, or swarm with combinations. He throws a lot of wide arm punches & doesn’t look to hit extremely hard. When he does get tired, he becomes a punching bag. He was battered in his first two UFC fights after gassing. In his last fight he went the other way & was too patient, not throwing much at all & then getting knocked out for the first time. He has two KO/TKO’s on the ground.
Khadis Ibragimov is a solid grappler. In his fight with Ed Herman, he spent a lot of time cage grinding against the fence. He didn’t have a lot of offense from there, and let Herman be more active even with his back against the cage. Ibragimov has nice single leg takedowns. He will use the single to push opponents to the cage & transition to doubles along with circling to the back. He has very nice throws. When he circles to the back, along with looking for throws, he will look to get his arms around the neck. He will lock in rear naked chokes with no hooks & finish them like bulldog chokes. In top position, he is good. He likes to get side control & finished his last opponent in the crucifix position. He likes to move to the mount, take the back & get rear naked chokes. He has 2 rear naked chokes & one bulldog choke. In his fight with Herman, he couldn’t control Herman the couple times he took him down. He has finished his last 5 wins. Ibragimov has shown terrible cardio so far in his career and hasn’t been able to keep the pace he sets in round one. He did a better job with his game plan in his last fight, slowing it down and grappling more. He still hasn’t been very successful grappling in his two UFC fights.
Danilo Marques
Age: 34
Height: 6’6
Weight: 205
Reach: 77.5”
Gym: Vida da Luta
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 2 Years 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +135
Danilo Marques is making his UFC debut coming off a 2.5-year layoff. He was supposed to fight in Brazil in March of this year, but the fight was cancelled. Marques is a training partner of Fabricio Werdum, and cornered Shogun on fight island in his last fight. I assume that’s why he’s getting this UFC opportunity here without fighting in over two years. Looking at Marques’s record it is not very good at all. The fighters he’s beaten are very low level. Marques is 6’6 though, and a solid black belt. There is limited footage of his striking online. He moves around well for a big guy. Marques is athletic and throws a good jab. He will jab to the body and has some good one-twos. He has a finish on his record with a body kick. Marques doesn’t look very dangerous on the feet though. He has been knocked out before as well.
Danilo Marques is a solid grappler & black belt in BJJ. He doesn’t look to have the greatest wrestling. In his fight with kick boxer Myron Dennis, he really struggled to get takedowns. He did hold Dennis against the cage, and eventually got him down. I have seen him counter some takedowns and get on top. Marques is a solid scrambler for a big guy. He is good at finding the back in scrambles. In his fight with Dennis, he gassed out after the second round after a lot of takedown attempts. Marques goes hard for the submission in the first but does slow down. He has seven first round finishes. Marques has one second round finish and is 1-1 in decisions.
Ibragimov is 0-3 in the UFC and fighting for his job here. In his first two fights he came out of the gates hot and blew his gas tank and lost. In his 3rd fight, he basically stood there and did nothing until he was knocked out late in the 1st. He isn’t a guy I would like to lay this much juice on in general, but he should have a big striking edge here and that is enough for me to pick him to get the win. Marques looks like he doesn’t have much to offer on the feet and he is going to look to grapple early and often. I just don’t think he is good enough to consistently get takedown or do much with them if he can’t lock up a sub.
This is going to be a fight I am pretty heavy on this week. I love the curtain jerkers for DK, and this is a perfect example of why. Both guys are inexperienced and flawed enough to make a mistake and these are the guys that are more likely to be finished. With this fight being in the mid-range, I think it will be an important one for GPPs. I wouldn’t touch this fight in cash games, because I think it is either Marques by submission, or Ibragimov by TKO. If that is in round 1 then we have a lock for the optimal after the first fight and you don’t want to miss out on that. I am going to be overweight to both sides here, but my preferred play is Ibragimov. We have a FDGTD line of -175 so Vegas doesn’t think we see the scorecards either, but I see some value in that number and I would have put it -200 or more myself.
Winner – Khadis Ibragimov via 1st round (T)KO
Juan Espino $9,100 vs Jeff Hughes $7,100
Juan Espino
Age: 39
Height: 6’4
Weight: 260
Reach: 80”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Spain
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 10 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -300
Juan Espino is making his long-awaited return after quite a long time away from the octagon. Espino has not fought since November of 2018, where he won the Ultimate Fighter. Espino has struggled with hand injuries, but hopefully those are behind him now. Espino is 39 years old as well, so he needs to get going now. Espino is 9-1 as a pro with his only loss coming to a top 10 HW in the world in Vitaly Minakov. That fight was also in 2011. Espino had a long 6-year hiatus from MMA and is undefeated since returning in 2017. Espino starts fast. He tends to finish fights in the first round, and if he can’t he goes to decision. Juan Espino’s striking is not very good. He does have an 82” inch reach though. He likes to jab and move. He has a good overhand right, left hook combo. His striking is very limited though, and he doesn’t seem to like getting hit much. In his one pro loss he was knocked out badly by Minakov. Espino did drop Maurice Greene, and if his opponent is worried about the takedown he can come over the top and club them. Overall, he looks vulnerable on the feet & wants to bring fights to the mat.
Juan Espino is an elite grappler especially for HW. He is one of the rare big men who are athletic and have elite skill level. Not only is Espino a highly decorated wrestler, but he’s also a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. Espino has won the Fila world championships, numerous grappling world championships, and even is 7-0 in Senegalese wrestling. Espino has a good single leg in space. He will use the single to push fighters to the cage & chain wrestle. He has good slams against the fence. On top, Espino has good control, and will sit in half guard and grind away. He will wait for his opponent to make a mistake, trap the far wrist and rain down shots or take their backs. Espino has six submissions. He will look for rear naked chokes. He has a good arm triangle. In his last fight, he got a straight arm lock from side control. He can also just get on top & grind fighters out also.
Jeff Hughes
Age: 32
Height: 6’2
Weight: 254
Reach: 77”
Gym: Strong Style Fight Team
From: Ohio
UFC Record: 0-2
Fight Matrix: 91
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +250
Jeff Hughes is still in search of his first UFC win. The former LFA champion has had three UFC fights, but his record is not good at 0-2-1. Hughes is more known for being Stipe’s main training partner than anything else and needs to get a couple wins to move out of the Champ’s shadow. Hughes is a tough fighter, but not very athletic. He has hard low kicks & a good overhand right. He has pretty good boxing & hand speed. He will throw nice one-twos and hook combinations. He will throw a nice right hook to a one-two combination. He will throw nice lead uppercut, left hook combos. He will throw a nice right hook, overhand left combination. Hughes is willing to sit in the pocket & trade. He landed a nice left hook in an exchange with Todd Duffee. Hughes is very good at throwing in combination against the cage. He will mix in spinning backfists & uppercuts. He throws a ton of volume for a heavyweight and is well conditioned. He trains with Miocic, so he has a great training partner to work with. Hughes struggled with the aggressiveness of Duffee in his last match. He was backed up against the fence & flurried on multiple times as well as dropped. Hughes is a guy who can take a licking & keep on ticking. It looked like he took all the shots Duffee had to offer, gassed him out and made him quit with the eye injury. Hughes isn’t a huge power guy, but it is HW & he has 4 KO/TKO’s. He has a strong chin but was TKO’d one time.
Jeff Hughes is a grinder & likes to work against the cage & in top position. He will land big uppercut & overhand combinations while mixing in takedowns. He has good body lock entries. In top position, he will wear on guys with short shots & has solid control. He can try to pass too quickly and get swept at times. Hughes was able to easily defend all the submission attempts of Greene on the ground & exhausted him in their first match. His submission defense is solid. He did back himself to the cage & was controlled and taken down by Duffee. He did show some good get-ups. Hughes isn’t a submission threat himself & just has one in his career. He has never been submitted.
Espino won the TUF 28 tournament and is now making his return to the Octagon after a two-year layoff. He is purely a grappler and he will be looking to get this fight to the mat as early as possible. Hughes doesn’t have big power for a Heavyweight so he might not be able to get that one punch KO before he is taken down, but he is the better striker of the two and he should win the striking exchanges if he can keep it on the feet. If Espino gets takedowns, he can keep top control long enough to win a round or maybe get a submission, but he is about to turn 40-years-old in a couple weeks and he is making a return after 2 years, during a pandemic. My guess is that Espino has one good round of heavy grappling in his tank and if he can’t get the finish then he is going to be put away in the 2nd or 3rd round.
Even though I am picking Hughes, I am not against heavy GPP exposure to Espino here. If Espino wins, he will likely score high with his grappling heavy style. He gets a lot of first round finishes and he will be dangerous there, so we need Espino exposure if MMEing. Espino is -115 ITD and he scored 123 DK points in his TUF 28 win. I don’t think he will be too popular this week, so I will probably be in line with the field or overweight on him. However, if he doesn’t win in that first round or early in the 2nd, I think he gasses out and loses this fight. Hughes isn’t a guy that I think scores 100+ and he might spend all of round 1 on his back, but he is cheap and I don’t see him getting much ownership so I will be overweight to him. I think there is a decent chance that 2 or 3 of these early fights end up on the nuts lineup.
Winner – Jeff Hughes via 3rd round (T)KO
Aleksa Camur $8,600 vs William Knight $7,600
Aleksa Camur
Age: 25
Height: 6’1
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: Strong Style Fight Team
From: Ohio
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 89
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -160
Aleksa Camur preserved his undefeated record in his last match & earned his first UFC win over Justin Ledet. Camur gained some experience as it was the first decision he has won in his career. Camur is another guy who is a training partner for Miocic, so I’m sure him and Hughes have got some work in. Camur is a good striker. He has good distance control, movement and is an athletic guy. Camur is used to being the aggressor in most of his fights. He controls the center and has a wide stance while bouncing in & out of range well. He has a nice, snappy jab and will double jab into range. His double jab, two or double jab, overhand right/right hook are money combinations for him. Camur has a very nice leaping left hook. His head movement & slipping & ripping ability in the pocket is pretty high level. Camur opened up with a lot of kicks in his last match. He has nasty low kicks & heavy round kicks to the body and head. Camur will use front kicks to the body & head. He has an excellent question mark kick. He can throw the kicks with both legs and is very fluid. In his match on DWCS, he finished the fight with a nasty flying knee. He was also rocked in that fight & stayed composed, showing he can battle through adversity. Camur has won all but one of his fights via KO/TKO.
I have not gotten to seen much of Camur’s grappling chops. I have seen fights where he drops opponents and finishes them with ground & pound. Camur did clinch up Fabio Cherant & Justin Ledet against the cage. He did a better job against Ledet of landing elbows over the top & some combos off the breaks. He also landed a nice, reactive takedown late in round three of his last fight. It was the first takedown I’ve seen him attempt. I haven’t seen many opponents shoot in on him either. I expect him to have fast hips & a nice sprawl though. He’s an athlete & I don’t think it will just be easy to get him down. One thing that did worry me about Camur in his last fight was he slowed way down at the midway point of round two. He also is a smaller LHW, and I think Knight will have some strength on him.
William Knight
Age: 32
Height: 5’10
Weight: 205
Reach: 73”
Gym: Thornton Martial Arts
From: Connecticut
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 93
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +140
William Knight is finally getting his opportunity in the UFC after two wins on the contender series. Knight has an 8-1 record with 8 finishes and is an athletic freak. Knight is an athletic guy. He will do backflips & splits as post fight celebrations. Knight is a good wrestler with power. His striking is not good. He has his chin right in the air & is super hittable. He doesn’t move his hands & his boxing is very rudimentary. Knight is very flat footed & really struggles to get his range with punches. He will wing overhands & if he lands, he has power, but he doesn’t set his shots up well on the feet. He will throw spinning kicks & can close distance & throw them very quickly. The guy is an athletic freak who can take a shot & only needs one.
William Knight is a grappler, but I’m not sure if he’s even a good grappler. Knight is super strong, but his wrestling defense is terrible. He can get taken down extremely easily, but he is just cock strong & stands up off bottom with ease. He has that Derrick Lewis get-up game. Knight will just overpower people & reverse to get on top. On top, he has brutal ground & pound and finishes fights quickly. He is an odd fighter to watch because he is usually losing the entire time until he ends the fight.
Camur should be the quicker and more technical striker here but Knight is going to be the big powerhouse looking for that one kill shot. Camur has finishing power as well but you can tell just by looking at them that Knight should be the stronger of the two. If Knight wins this fight, I would think it most likely comes by knockout. Camur can get a KO as well but he is much more likely to win a decision here, so he is the pick.
These first 3 fights are going to be fights I target in a good amount of my lineups. Both guys in this matchup have big power and can get a 1st round KO. Knight has never been to a decision and Camur has only done it one, which was his last fight. We also have a -285 FDGTD line on this one so Vegas thinks there is a 74% chance this ends ITD. I will target both sides here, but Knight is my preferred play because he is cheaper and has 100+ upside. GPP only for this fight though. It is also my 3rd favorite fight of the first 3 to target because I am picking this to go to a decision, I just have zero faith in that.
Winner – Aleksa Camur via Unanimous Decision
Ludovit Klein $8,300 vs Shane Young $7,900
Ludovit Klein
Age: 25
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: N/A
Gym: Spartakus Fight Gym
From: Slovakia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 83
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -115
Ludovit Klein will be making his UFC debut at 25 years old with a record of 16-2. Klein will be the first fighter from Slovakia in the UFC. Klein is riding a seven-fight win streak against solid competition into this fight. He has also finished six of the seven by knockout. Klein is a fast twitch, dangerous counter striker. Klein has very good in & out movement and closes the gap very quickly. Klein will come forward behind good fakes & feints, cuts the cage off and forces fighters on the back foot. He has a really good jab, and heavy kicks. He throws a really fast, tight one-two. Klein will throw jab, low kick & jab, high kick combinations. Klein’s head kick is nasty. He throws it quickly with little tell & has finished multiple people with it. Klein has quick counter punching combinations. He likes to counter with a lead hook to head kick combination. He throws quick, straight punches. He will rip the body with heavy hooks. Klein will throw some heavy round & front kicks to the body. Klein is super-fast, technical and dangerous. He will be a handful for fighters on the feet, even high-level ones. Ludovit has 7 KO/TKO’s.
Ludovit Klein is a strong fighter for the division. He has a lot of muscle & can bully fighters in the clinch. He will get the Muay Thai plum & throw some brutal knees. Klein likes to dig double underhooks, drive his opponents to the cage & hit body locks. I have seen show some nice timing on double legs. On top, Klein doesn’t have the best top control, nor is he very dangerous. He struggles to hold fighters down. Klein is actually more dangerous off his back than on top. He has a dangerous guard, and a good armbar & guillotine. He does give his back when he stands up. Klein showed some pretty good takedown defense in his last fight with Lukas Sajewski. He showed good balance and defense while defending the single leg. Sajewski who is a good wrestler & former UFC fighter did take him down & control him for a bit, but he got up and got the knockout shortly after. Klein has been submitted once in his career. He fought a tall, long opponent who was able to take his back in a scramble & choke him out. Klein has eight submissions of his own, mostly off his back. Klein’s cardio isn’t the best. He slows down pretty substantially as the fight goes on. Klein is a kill or be killed fighter. He has only been to one decision in eighteen fights. Klein has only even been to the third round twice in his career. He likes to get in & get out which makes him exciting.
Shane Young
Age: 27
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: City Kickboxing
From: New Zealand
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -105
Shane Young will be the first city boxing representative to enter the octagon Saturday night. Young will be looking to build on his two-fight winning streak as he takes on UFC newcomer Ludovit Klein. Shane Young has solid lateral footwork & strong inside and outside leg kicks. He will throw nice jabs to the body & head. He will throw oblique kicks to the knee & front kicks to the body. He does a great job of after establishing his jab, and then feinting it to create other openings. He will feint the jab & throw a hard straight-right hand, and even head kicks. He keeps very heavy pressure on opponents and throws a ton of output. He has a good double jab, right hand combination. When he hurts opponents, he will swarm with body shots & then try to go upstairs, but he forgets about defense and can be hurt & countered. He relies on his chin & eating shots to keep the pressure while in close range. He just overwhelms opponents, and he never slows down. He is good in the pocket and he will mix in uppercuts, hooks with both hands, but he is very hittable himself. Austin Arnett was tagging him with one-twos down the pipe. He has 6 KO/TKO’s and solid power in his straight-right hand. He has a fantastic chin and has never been finished in his 17 fight MMA career.
Young is a good grappler. He does a great job of mixing in level changes into his game plan. He has great double leg entries & always having fighters on the back foot near the cage makes it easier to get a hold of them. He will go into the clinch where he has good control, nice knees to the body, and very nice elbows over the top. He does leave his hands low after he exits the clinch & needs to be weary of counters. When Young gets fighters down, he does have nice ground & pound elbows and will attack with submissions. He has 4 career submissions and has finished 10 of his 12 fights overall. He has phenomenal cardio & will not get tired.
Klein is making his UFC debut here on late notice after Young’s first opponent pulled out. He looks like he is UFC ready though and he could beat a lot of guys in the division already. Young has solid striking but it’s his pace that is most impressive. He landed over 100 strikes in both his UFC wins and one of them was a 2nd round KO. Klein looks like he should have the wrestling advantage and he is probably the more dangerous striker with his hands and kicks. Young might not be able to land that heavy volume against Klein and if he tries to it could leave him open for a counter knockout. If this goes to a decision, I think Young would be more likely to win but I am going to take the debut underdog to get a knockout upset in his debut and I think he is live to win a decision as well if he lands some hard shots and mixes in some takedowns to not allow Young to land high volume.
I wish DraftKings added this fight to the player pool earlier in the week, so we could have had Klein as the underdog, but now I have less interest with him as the favorite because he is my preferred play of the two. If Young wins this fight then his pace will pay off this value, so he is more in play now as the underdog, but I am taking Klein to get the win, so I won’t go to Young much. As a favorite, I am not sure how much Klein I can afford here but he is still in play for me, I am just going to be closer to field weight now where he would have probably been a core play as an underdog. This is probably a fight I get in about 30-35% of my lineups and I would think that is about 20% Klein and 10-15% Young.
Winner – Ludovit Klein via 2nd round (T)KO
Jake Matthews $9,400 vs Diego Sanchez $6,800
Jake Matthews
Age: 26
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: Nexus
From: Australia
UFC Record: 9-4
Fight Matrix:
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -750
Jake Matthews is very light on his feet, fast & explosive. He likes to bounce in & out on the outside and explode in with big overhands & hooks. He will close the distance with nice straight punches. When opponents try to come in, he will counter with flurries of hooks or overhand heaters. Matthews definitely has big power & can sit opponents down with either hand. Matthews likes to throw an overhand right, left hook combination. Even if he doesn’t land the overhand right, he will still follow through with the left hook & catches a lot of guys backing up with it. Matthews can get very wild & wide in the pocket as the fight goes on. When fighters pressure him & make him feel uncomfortable, he almost just wings & prays hoping it backs opponents off. Matthews has shown some good head movement in the past and will slip & rip well. Matthews will throw some nice flying knees. Matthews definitely has a strong chin and is willing to take shots to give shots. It’s funny, because in some fights he seems ready for a war & others he seems to quit. He still hasn’t quite mastered his mental game yet. Matthews definitely is explosive with power. He has 4 TKO’s and has only been finished by TKO one time.
Jake Matthews is a Jiu-Jitsu black belt with a smashing top game. He is very strong in the clinch, he has hard punches and knees to the body, while looking for trips. He has strong double legs, and he does a good job of grabbing a single leg, coming back up to a body lock and dumping his opponent. He blends his takedowns & grappling well in some fights. When Matthews gets top position, he has tremendous control & ground & pound. He will posture up & land some brutal punches & elbows and use that to improve position. Matthews is always searching for the back, where he has an excellent rear naked choke. His last win was a rear naked choke. Matthews also most likely would have gotten a guillotine in a fight vs Li Jingliang if it wasn’t for an egregious eye gouge by “The Leach”. Matthews will snatch guillotines very quickly & has a great squeeze. Matthews has had some fights where he was broken with wrestling & scrambling. In his fight with Andrew Holbrook, Holbrook was able to use leg locks to reverse & take top position & grinded out a victory over Matthews. Matthews gassed in that fight, and his gas tank has always been questionable. Matthews has been submitted twice in his career. He has 7 submissions of his own.
Diego Sanchez
Age: 38
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: School of Self Awareness
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 19-12
Fight Matrix:
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +525
Diego Sanchez’s striking has looked awful as of late. To be fair, his striking has never been super impressive, but he is relentless. He will throw hard overhand rights & right hooks. He will throw left straight, overhand right, or right uppercut combinations. He will throw a wild lead left hook & can really overextend with it. He will throw hard leg & body kicks. He has shown a nice head kick years ago dropping Clay Guida with one. He is still very aggressive & takes the center immediately. When he gets hurt, he still has that dog in him & will bite down and try to get it back. His chin is gone & when he does that fighters put him out cold. He should have the same game plan as his last match, use his strikes solely to get inside & get takedowns. Sanchez has never been known as a power guy with 9 finishes by KO/TKO but got his first one since 2008 vs Mickey Gall. He is one of the most durable fighters in UFC history, but the wars have caught up to him. He has been KO/TKO’d in his last three losses, and 4 times overall.
Sanchez is a grinding, relentless wrestler, and returned to that style in his last match. The Nightmare was able to takedown White & Gall at will, control and beat them up on the ground. He will run across the cage & attack for the takedown right away. He has a good single leg entry & is very strong. He can pick up and dump his opponents. He has good double leg entries as well. He likes to get the takedowns against the fence. On top, he has great control & strong ground and pound. He is super active & relentless with his volume. He has phenomenal cardio and will put a storm on opponents and make them give up. His last two wins have come against submission grapplers where he just grinded them out. He was out grappled positionally in his last match by Michael Chiesa but got some takedowns & held his own. Chiesa just defeated RDA so that loss does not look too bad. Sanchez has never been submitted in his illustrious career. He has 9 career submissions, but 0 in the UFC. Sanchez has amazing heart, cardio & is willing to die in there.
Sanchez has been around since TUF 1 and he has been in some of the most exciting fights of all time. He just isn’t the same guy anymore and the striking is a complete shell of what it used to be. His grappling has earned him a couple UFC wins lately and he took a way out to get a DQ win in his last fight, but there aren’t any advantages for him in this fight and he can’t fall back on the grappling against Matthews. Matthews should win this fight with a clear 30-27 but it will be tough to finish Sanchez still.
This might be a fight that I end up X’ing out of my player pool. I think this fight makes best for a cash game play because I can see it going all 3 rounds, I just think Matthews wins a decision and he won’t score a ton most likely in that scenario, but he is a “safe” play at the top where others could lose early. Sanchez is in play as the cash punt if you think he gets 3 rounds of points in a loss. I doubt I play cash though and I don’t want these guys in GPPs.
Winner – Jake Matthews via Unanimous Decision
Brad Riddell $9,200 vs Alex da Silva $7,000
Brad Riddell
Age: 28
Height: 5’7
Weight: 155
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: City Kickboxing
From: New Zealand
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 100
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -330
Brad Riddell is the second City Kickboxing product on deck for this card. Riddell has had a great start to his UFC career going 2-0. Riddell defeated a very tough Magomed Mustafaev in his last fight which is a high-level win. Riddell doesn’t use a ton of movement but is excellent at controlling distance. He slides in & out of range extremely well & has excellent feints. Riddell has a great jab & heavy inside and outside leg kicks. Riddell has a nasty left hook. He will throw the left hook in combination to the body and head very well. He has a nasty left hook, right uppercut combination. He has a very heavy overhand right. Riddell will pull counter with the right straight or hook. He has very fast hand speed & if he can land a pull counter in the pocket, he usually will come with 3-4 more punches behind it. Riddell likes to fight forehead to forehead a lot, or in very close quarters in kick boxing. In MMA, he will have a massive advantage in the pocket. Riddell did get very wild in the fight with Mullarkey and was rocked & dropped. Mullarkey took his back after the knockdown, but Riddell stayed composed and worked back up to his feet. He badly hurt Mullarkey multiple times with tight hooks, elbows and overhands inside himself. Mullarkey showed extreme toughness. In his last fight, he landed nasty shots and dropped Mustafaev as well. Riddell does throw hard round kicks to the body and head. He got a couple kicks caught in his last match and was taken down. Riddell has a nasty front knee to the body. He is very explosive and will almost lull opponents to sleep with his feint & then move into range quickly. He has shown the ability to create new angles very well in the pocket with side steps. He will land a combination, side step as his opponent tries to exit & land clean shots. This is where he usually gets his knockouts. In MMA his feints will be extremely high level. I see him freezing a lot of opponents with them & giving fighters problems. Riddell has 5 KO/TKO’s and has never been finished by strikes.
Brad Riddell is a competent defensive grappler. He has put in a lot of time with the Hickman Brothers at tiger Muay Thai & is good at drawing bad takedown attempts out of opponents. Riddell is very good at feinting to draw out a takedown, sprawling & taking top position. In his last match, Riddell showed very heavy hips. Riddell was able to dig double underhooks and has a very nice whizzer. Riddell did throw an un-setup kick in round two, which led to him being taken down. Riddell was able to pop right back up to his feet though and disengage quickly. Riddell had a body kick taken also but was able to dig an underhook & sweep to top position. Riddell wasn’t able to control on top & it’s not somewhere he wants to be. Riddell was able to mount and hurt Mullarkey late in round two but was ultimately swept. Riddell is still green on the mat & definitely doesn’t want to grapple with da Silva. Riddell seemed confident grappling with Mustafaev & Mullarkey & even hit some sweeps and takedowns of his own. Riddell has definitely been working on his grappling & is improving quickly. He was able to defend all the takedowns of Mullarkey, besides when his kicks where caught. He showed good get-ups and sweeps against Mustafaev. Riddell showed some decent ground & pound but is not a finisher on the ground. His lone loss in MMA he was armbarred. Riddell showed strong cardio in his last match & good composure even when put in bad positions.
Alex da Silva
Age: 24
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: Astra Fight Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 202
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +270
Alex da Silva bounced back from his debut loss in the UFC, getting a dominant victory over Rodrigo Vargas. Da Silva has an amazing record of 21-2, but he is just 1-1 in the UFC, and 3-2 in his last five. Da Silva is a very good striker. He is big for the division, rangy, aggressive and dangerous. He has nasty kicks, very fast front kicks to the body & round kicks to the head. He has a nice jab and a nice one-two. He has heavy low leg kicks & throws them early & often. He will throw a left hook, right uppercut combination. He has very nice head kicks and front knees to the body & head. Overall on the feet he is wild & while dangerous leaves a lot of openings. He has multiple one-shot finishes & has big power & explosiveness. He has 13 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished.
Alex da Silva is a good submission grappler. His wrestling does not look great though. Da Silva is not a super active wrestler, but he has nice level changes into doubles against the fence. In his last fight, he was able to defend takedowns and take top position. Da Silva on top has pretty good ground & pound but is not the best on top though. He doesn’t have great top control and gets swept a lot. Da Silva does have a few rear naked choke victories. When he can take the back, he will get the seat belt & has good control there. He was able to dominate his last fight & get a lot of top control, but I don’t think Vargas is good on the ground. Da Silva doesn’t have very good takedown defense even though it looked improved in his last match. He will try to counter with guillotines rather than defend the shots. Once he’s on his back, he is super dangerous. He will attack with really nice armbars, triangles & look for sweeps. He will roll for leg locks. His guard is hard to pass, and he is always attacking. In his fight with Alexander Yakovlev, he got caught in a guillotine, & submitted while going for a takedown.
Riddell has some top notch striking and he will give anybody in the division a run for their money on the feet. The ground is where people can take advantage of him a bit though and he has been taken down 11 times in his two UFC fights. Alex da Silva is solid on the feet as well, but he will be at a disadvantage there and will need to look to get this fight to the mat. He can make this fight close with takedowns and top control time, but a submission is probably his most likely path to victory. Riddell can win this fight with a clear striking decision or clip da Silva along the way and put him out.
My preferred play on DraftKings is going to be Riddell but I am not sure how much I will be able to afford. I do see him getting the knockout here, so I want exposure to him and I think he is playable in all formats, I just know I will be overweight on the title favorites and that will limit my exposure to the other expensive fighters. Riddell is one that I want to be overweight on in my head, I just haven’t built lineups yet to know how much I will be able to afford. Silva is going to be more of a hedge play for me where if I end up with a lot of Riddell then I want some Silva hedge lineups and if I don’t have much Riddell then I probably fade Silva. I think Silva is in play for submission upside, but I am too high on Riddell to want to invest much in that other than for hedge purposes.
Winner – Brad Riddell via 2nd round (T)KO
Zubaira Tukhugov $8,200 vs Hakeem Dawodu $8,000
Zubaira Tukhugov
Age: 29
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 68”
Gym: Krepost Fight Club
From: Russia
UFC Record: 4-1-1
Fight Matrix: 42
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -125
Zubaira Tukhugov bounced back with a nice knockout victory in his last fight. He landed his signature right hand, put down Kevin Aguilar, and put him out. Tukhugov has an impressive UFC record himself at 4-1-1. This is a big matchup for both fighters, and the winner will likely get a top fifteen opponent. Tukhugov is very wild on the feet. Tukhugov uses a karate stance while moving in & out. He doesn’t really use the movement to hit & not get hit though. He will be bouncing right in front of someone not really moving and looking for counters. If his opponent doesn’t throw after a few seconds, he will close the distance with some wild straight or overhand punch combinations & reset. In his last fight, he was throwing some straight & overhand rights. He will leap into hooks, uppercuts & is pretty fast closing distance. He landed a left hook that dropped his opponent in the first round of his last fight. Tukhugov definitely throws hard & when he does land clean he can end the fight. Tukhugov will throw some nice kicks; Body kicks, head kicks, and nice spinning kicks & elbows. Tukhugov sideways stance leaves him open to leg & body shots. He also can get backed up a lot & not let much offense go. He took a lot of shots when he got pressured in his match with Lerone Murphy. Tukhugov is hard to pressure though especially early because of his explosive power & takedowns. He has 7 KO/TKO’s and has only been finished once by strikes.
Zubaira Tukhugov is a Dagestani wrestler with a good array of takedowns. He has nice foot sweeps, trips, throws, and body locks. In the clinch, he is a master of finding his way into top position. The way he strikes also helps him get inside & into the clinch. When opponents pressure, Tukhugov has excellent timing on his double legs. On top, Tukhugov hasn’t been very good so far in his UFC career. Against Renato Moicano, he was threatened with a triangle, and didn’t let much offense go. Against Murphy, Tukhugov was a wet blanket. Tukhugov is good at controlling and advancing position to not get stood up. He will turk the legs & try to slide into mount. He likes to control in half guard. Tukhugov’s Jiu-Jitsu is a little bit questionable. He has one submission & been submitted once, but he gives opponents a lot of opportunities. He was swept with a kimura and threatened with a guillotine in his last match. Tukhugov showed extreme doggedness in that fight. In round three he was not successful with many takedowns but controlled against the cage in order to survive. Tukhugov’s exploding style gasses him out, especially if he can’t get takedowns & control in top position. He got to shake the rust off his last match, so maybe he will look better this time around.
Hakeem Dawodu
Age: 29
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 72”
Gym: Champions Creed Martial Arts
From: Canada
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 73
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +105
Hakeem Dawodu is one of Canada’s best fighters right now. He has run off four consecutive victories, but still hasn’t quite had that break out performance yet. He has two split decision victories in his win streak and coming off one in his last fight. Dawodu is a very athletic, explosive striker. Dawodu has a nice jab. He has a good one-two & jab, right hook. He will wear opponents out with hard body shots. He will throw hard front & round kicks to the body. He does a great job of attacking with hooks to the body. He will throw hard leg kicks inside and outside throughout the fight. He has big power in his kicks and was eating up the legs of Austin Arnett in a recent fight. He is flat footed and doesn’t move his head off center line when he throws hooks, making him susceptible to straight punch counters. He likes to use a lot of hooks, uppercuts, and wide punches in the pocket as opposed to straight shots. He will admire his work a little bit after he lands. His chin is a bit questionable to me, but he’s never been finished with strikes. He has an edge when he gets hit, he will counter back hard & backs opponents off. He has 6 KO/TKO’s in 11 wins.
Dawodu is a strong athlete, and a good grappler. He is strong in the clinch and will land hard knees and short punches to the body. He has explosive double leg takedowns, and good body locks. On top, he isn’t great. He has decent ground & pound but is still green on the ground. He has great takedown defense and is very explosive and hard to hold down. I don’t see him looking for any takedowns in this fight. He has great cardio and comes in good shape for every fight.
Both of these fighters are well rounded but Dawodu should have the edge on the feet and Tukhugov should have the wrestling/grappling advantage. Tukhugov can win this fight on the feet, it would just most likely need to come from a knockout because Dawodu will be the guy throwing and landing more volume, and he is the more well-rounded striker. Tukhugov can rack up takedowns and look to win rounds that way but I’d think Dawodu is more likely to get back up than Tukhugov is to submit him. This is a close one, but my slight edge goes to Dawodu.
My favorite thing about this fight is that it is the mid-range fight of the week and either guy could break the slate if they can get an early finish. I think both guys are capable of that 1st round KO, I just don’t see it happening, so I don’t think I get much exposure to this as a whole. Dawodu is my preferred play because he is cheaper, and I think he might be the less owned of the two. People are going to remember Tukhugov scoring 124 DK points in his last fight and I think they will chase that thinking he is some special KO artist now. On the other side, Dawodu has never even scored 100 DK points so I think that keeps him under owned here. I will probably have a small percentage of both guys, but I will have more Dawodu for sure and I might just duplicate any Tukhugov lineups and throw Dawodu in and leave the $200 or more of salary on the table. This one is too close for me to want to use in cash games though so probably GPP only for me.
Winner – Hakeem Dawodu via Split Decision
Ketlen Vieira $8,800 vs Sijara Eubanks $7,400
Ketlen Vieira
Age: 29
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Nova Uniao
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: 14
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -190
Ketlen Vieira is a pitbull. She is extremely aggressive, very big, and physical for the division. Vieira is a forward pressure striker. She isn’t the fastest fighter in space, but she knows that. She likes to be all the way in or all the way out, usually inside backing her opponents towards the cage. Vieira doesn’t really throw a lot of long range strikes. She will wait until she gets in the pocket & that’s where she lets off combinations with power. Vieira will walk into some punches & kicks, but she is very sturdy & durable. When she gets inside, Vieira has excellent hand combinations. She parries & hand fights very well. Vieira has big power & very sharp punches. She has a very nice jab & left hook. She will throw left hook, straight-right hand combinations. Vieira will also mix in hook & uppercut flurries. She has big power & when she lands fighters get big eyes & back up. They do not want to exchange in the pocket with her. Vieira is going to have to get inside & cut the cage off in this fight. At range, Eubanks has the speed advantage. Eubanks is going to be looking to pot shot & move, and Vieira has to negate that. If Vieira can get inside & force Eubanks to trade punches or take her down, I feel she will have success. She is definitely more powerful than Eubanks. We do have to monitor Vieira’s chin since she was knocked out for the first time in her career last time out. Vieira has 2 TKO victories & has never been finished by strikes.
Ketlen Vieira is a very strong grappler. She is a black belt in judo & Jiu-Jitsu. Vieira doesn’t shoot takedowns at range, but she will back opponents up, get them in the clinch & work from there. She has excellent body lock trips to go with big judo throws. On top, Vieira is very good. She is heavy & has solid ground & pound. Vieira is very comfortable in half guard, controlling, doing damage & looking for arm triangles. She has a good squeeze & was able to submit Sara McMann with it from half guard. Vieira will also look for kimuras from that position. Her other go to submission is the rear naked choke, but she hasn’t been able to get the back position in any of her four UFC fights. Vieira is a dog & has solid cardio. She is 4-0 in decisions with 6 finish victories. Vieira has 4 career submissions.
Sijara Eubanks
Age: 35
Height: 5’3
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Nick Catone’s MMA
From: Maryland
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 2 Weeks
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +165
Sijara Eubanks has nice leg kicks & good one-twos. She will close the distance with hook & uppercut combinations. She likes to attack the body to close the distance into the combos. She has pretty decent head movement in the pocket & will throw long combinations. Eubanks also will throw dangerous head kicks. Eubanks is durable & has never been finished. She showed that once again in her last fight. Julia Avila was blitzing her at the start of the rounds, but Eubanks stayed hard, weathered it and won the later parts of the round. Eubanks throws a lot of volume in the first round, but as the fight goes on she slows down and throws one at a time. Her movement becomes much more labored & she becomes more hittable. Eubanks has 3 KO/TKO’s.
Sijara Eubanks is a Jiu-Jitsu black belt & a good grappler. She has a good double leg and good timing on her entries. She does a good job of chain wrestling and will use the double to drive her opponents against the cage and then go for a single or change levels and go up top for a body lock. Her single leg from the outside is her most effective takedown. She can shoot from too far out at times though because she is uncomfortable with the striking. She is very heavy on top and throws hard, heavy elbows. When she takes opponents down, she does a good job of staying on top & winning the round. She showed some nasty ground & pound in her last fight. Eubanks has poor cardio, and really slows down in round three. This has cost her a couple of fights. Eubanks only has one submission herself and isn’t a big submission threat.
Eubanks had an impressive outing less than two weeks ago and now she has her 3rd weight cut in 4 weeks for this fight. Not only is the weight cut an issue, but I don’t see any real edges here for Eubanks. Usually she has a grappling advantage and that is how she pulled off the upset against Avila. This matchup might be one where the grappling goes to Vieira and she should be the better and more dangerous striker as well. Vieira is the pick here, but I don’t know that she finishes so probably a fairly clear decision win for her.
This will be a fight I don’t have much DK exposure to and if it doesn’t make any of my 20 lineups then I would be ok with that. I have Viera winning this fight, but she isn’t a big DK scorer and she probably wants to keep this fight on the feet since she has a bigger edge there. She is just $8.8k on DraftKings and she has never even had a score that would 10x that. People could also be higher on Eubanks since she just scored over 100 as an underdog two weeks ago so I don’t want to get exposure to someone I think will be over owned and probably loses.
Winner – Ketlen Vieira via Unanimous Decision
Kai Kara-France $8,900 vs Brandon Royval $7,300
Kai Kara-France
Age: 27
Height: 5’4”
Weight: 125.5 lbs
Reach: 66.5”
Gym: City Kickboxing
From: Auckland, New Zealand
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: 13
Last Fought: 7 months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -240
Kai Kara-France is very sharp, technical & when opponents let him fight at his pace, he can roll over them. Kara-France likes to pick his shots going forward & uses his power to discourage forward pressure. He has a really nice jab that he uses to attack the body, slip & rip, touch and pull and has a crowd-pleasing style. Once he establishes his straight, he is very good at feinting it & using good footwork to control the center. Kara-France isn’t a huge kicker, but he does have nice technique on his leg & high kicks. Kara-France has a nasty cartwheel kick KO on his record. Kara-France definitely has big power in his hands & when he can sit down on an overhand or straight punch he can knock opponents out. The issue he’s had in recent fights is pressure & hand speed. Kara-France likes to load up and throw a lot of one shot attacks. Brandon Moreno just had faster hands and was able to eat the shots & walk him down. Kara-France can be very defensive & shell up defensively a bit. Kara-France is very dangerous in round one. He has 8 knockouts in round one out of 10 in his career and dropped Moreno in the first. He has been TKO’d twice, but none since 2012.
Kai Kara-France is a well-rounded fighter. He will look to mix it up & grapple, but that’s not his first choice. He likes to keep the fight on the feet, but when the pressure gets too much he will shoot. Kara-France was able to hit a couple takedowns on Raulian Paiva including a timely double leg late in round three. He also slammed Mark De La Rosa in their fight. Against Paiva, Kara-France did shoot some very bad takedowns that got reversed. Off his back, he was able to stay calm & get back to his feet. Kara-France has very good takedown defense & a strong get-up game. He has defended 88% of takedowns in the UFC. He has only been taken down twice in the octagon both very briefly. Kara-France will take the submission if he sees it but only has three in his career. He has been submitted twice. The last time he was submitted was in 2014, and he hasn’t been finished in over 5 years.
Brandon Royval
Age: 28
Height: 5’9”
Weight: 125.5 lbs
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: factoryX Muay Thai
From: Littleton, Colorado
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 11
Last Fought: 4 months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +200
Brandon Royval is an interesting prospect, but I’m not extremely impressed. On the feet, Royval is very high volume. He is fast & long for the division and has nice kicks and straights. Royval will throw heavy low kicks, early and often. Royval likes to throw straights followed by low body or head kicks. He has a nice jab, one-twos, and nice, straight punch drive-bys. Royval has a nice, short lead hook also. He also likes to throw nice spinning elbows. He will mix knees into his combinations, & overall is a creative striker. The issue with Royval on the feet is his defense. He drops his hands & has his chin readily available to be hit after throwing strikes. He is there to be countered & eventually he will be knocked out if that isn’t fixed. Royval is very tough & when he gets hit will come forward and try to get it back. He likes to drown opponents with volume & forward pressure forcing them to shoot takedowns. Royval will probably have the striking advantage here, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he got tagged with some good ones himself. Royval has never been finished by strikes & at FLW fighters can get away with more mistakes. Royval does have three KO/TKO victories.
Brandon Royval is a dangerous submission grappler. He is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and is not afraid to attack submissions. Royval really doesn’t have the wrestling though. He doesn’t shoot takedowns and has poor takedown defense. The way he gets top position is from forcing bad shots out of opponents from pressure on the feet or sweeping his opponent. Royval’s takedown defense is improving, but it still isn’t very good. He can get taken down in the clinch with wrestling shots. When he fought UFC fighter Casey Kenney, Royval was taken down at will. Royval is very tricky off his back. He has a good guard, and very quick armbar and triangle transitions. He will attack oma & gogoplatas, and transitions from submission to submission very quickly. Royval can get his guard passed due to being so aggressive, and Kenney was able to ride him out fairly easily. In his fight with Tim Elliott, Elliot got him in some bad positions as well. Royval still will attack the legs, look for submissions in scrambles, and to reguard. Royval has sick cardio and will never stop working on bottom or on top. He is always moving and will gas guys out and then sub them. Most of Royval’s wins have come by submission in bottom position. He has seven career subs.
This should be a striker vs grappler matchup. Kara-France should be winning the striking exchanges and he will be the better striker landing more volume. Royval is going to look to get this fight to the mat, and if he can, maybe he can lock up a submission but it’s hard to see him winning 2 rounds with his grappling and top control, so maybe it’s submission or bust for him here. Kara-France should have the defensive wrestling to keep this on the feet and he should win a fairly clear decision if that is the case.
This is sort of the same as the last fight for me where I don’t want the fighter I think that wins because I don’t see them scoring highly, and the underdog might be more popular than I would like. Royval will be my preferred play on this one but I won’t be forcing him into lineups, and this will be a fight I don’t get much exposure to at all. Royval is going to have a height and reach advantage on the feet but I expect Kara-France to be able to clearly win the striking, just not score highly enough on DK. If Royval wins, I think it would come by a submission so that is why he would be in play for me. I probably end up with 10-15% Royval here but I don’t see Kara-France making 1 of 20 lineups.
Winner – Kai Kara-France via Unanimous Decision
Dominick Reyes $9,000 vs Jan Blachowicz $7,200
Dominick Reyes
Age: 30
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 77”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: California
UFC Record: 6-1
Fight Matrix: 2
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -290
Dominick Reyes is a dynamic athlete with knockout power & well-rounded skills. Reyes has great lateral footwork & head movement. He will work behind a lot of feints & fakes. He will start off landing a nice jab & then fake the jab & come with the straight-right hand. He will throw jab, left hook combo. He also likes to throw a lead uppercut, straight-right. He will throw a left hook, straight-right hand to the body. He will slip a punch in the pocket, quickly load up and return with a powerful uppercut. He attacks the body nicely with round kicks, especially when opponents are trying to circle off the cage or at the end of combinations. Reyes does a great job of utilizing angles. He can find that straight-left hand moving backwards laterally or forwards. He will go high with the kick as well & has very fast kicks. When he gets opponents backed against the cage, he does an amazing job of keeping them there. He has great shot selection & will stay long but keep the volume high with jabs, straights, overhands & uppercuts. He has 6 KO/TKO’s all in round one & has shown big power. In his fight with Volkan Oezdemir, Oezdemir was able to take his power, and walk him down which caused Reyes issues. Reyes looked uncomfortable under the pressure at times & ate some big shots. The same thing happened against Jones where he slowed down a bit.
Dominick Reyes is an above average grappler. He showed a nice clinch game in his fight with OSP. He was able to land some nice knees & control OSP against the cage. He also did a great job of making OSP pay for takedown attempts. He landed brutal elbows to the side of the head & nice hammerfists. Jones did control Reyes against the fence, burn clock and get the fight back in his favor that way. Reyes does a great job of controlling a wrist & throwing nice hooks & uppercuts to counter the takedown attempts. He does a great job of throwing strikes off the break. Reyes has good get-ups & is hard to hold down. Getting takedowns on Reyes can just tires his opponent out at times because he just gets up quickly. In his last match, Oezdemir did knock him down with a leg kick & control on top for a short period. He also took down Reyes with a double leg in round one and had some top control time. Reyes was taken down early by Weidman but got up quickly and showed nice defense. He defended all the takedowns of Jones. Reyes has shot single legs, but he doesn’t look for many takedowns. I don’t expect him to shoot any in this matchup. Reyes has done well in some IBJJF competitions, so he has shown some competency in Jiu-Jitsu realm. He was able to get a rear naked choke against Jeremy Kimball. His cardio did wane a bit against Saint Preux & Oezdemir. In this fight, he has to have the cardio to move & kick like he likes to for five rounds. Reyes has two career submissions.
Jan Blachowicz
Age: 37
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 78”
Gym: Berkut WCA Fight Team
From: Poland
UFC Record: 9-5
Fight Matrix: 4
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +245
Jan Blachowicz has a very good jab, and he keeps a high guard while using solid lateral movement, fakes and feints to set up his shots. He has a nasty uppercut and will double or even triple up on the jab. He was able to close the distance with long straight punches and hooks against Manuwa and was super-fast and accurate with his hands dropping Manuwa multiple times. In the pocket, he does a great job of landing short left and right hooks along with his uppercut. He has great eyes in the pocket, is calm and uses good head movement to see the shots from his opponent coming and then countering. He has a nasty left body kick, but he doesn’t throw it as much as he used to. He also has a nice, inside leg kick. He will finish combinations with a nice clinch knee. He will go high with head kicks. Blachowicz probably doesn’t have the knockout power of Reyes, but he can still crack. He has shown that in his last few fights. He has 7 career KO/TKO’s & has an insane chin. He has been KO/TKO’d just one time in his career vs Thiago Santos.
Blachowicz does a great job of setting up double leg takedowns and is a black belt in BJJ. He is pretty strong in the clinch, using good underhooks and will land short shots and keep control. On top, he is very strong with good ground & pound and dangerous with submissions. He showed some great strength in his last match sweeping Krylov after he took him down & dominating on top. He was able to transition with ease & always was looking for kimuras and straight armbars. He eventually took Krylov down again to start round two, quickly transitioned to side control again, grabbed an arm triangle and closed the show. Jan has pretty solid takedown defense when he has the cardio, and he really lost in the past mainly due to cardio issues. When he is put on his back, he tends to struggle. He will look for an old school armbar from the guard, but not much else. He has returned to his old gym from when he was successful early in his career and has looked phenomenal. Berkut WCA Fight Team is one of the best teams in Poland, packed with talent including great HW boxer Artur Szpilka. They have produced UFC fighters Daniel Omelyanchuk, Bartosz Fabinski, Piotr Strauss, and Damian Stasiak. Blachowicz has 9 career submissions and has been submitted just once himself.
Reyes has been my pick to be the next champion at 205, I just didn’t think it would come this early. With Jon Jones vacating his belt it leaves the #1 spot wide open and I think Reyes is that guy now. I don’t even think Blachowicz is in the top 5 personally, and Reyes should be better everywhere in this matchup. Blachowicz has big power and he will have 25-minutes to land the big shot here, I just think he needs that KO to get the win. Reyes is the better and more dangerous striker and he will likely be leading the striking volume as well. Maybe Blachowicz can land a couple takedowns but it’s hard to see him be able to get them consistently enough to win 3 rounds. This is KO or bust for Blachowicz in my opinion and Reyes should cruise to a decision win if he doesn’t get a knockout of his own.
Reyes is going to be a core play for me this weekend. He is my most confident pick on the card, and I think he can end this fight with a KO. I also think he can get 10x in a decision win if it goes there. My issue is that Reyes will probably be the 2nd or 3rd highest owned fighter on the card, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him win an 85-point decision where he isn’t on the optimal. I won’t be all-in on this fight, but overall, Reyes is a core play because he will be in more than half my lineups this week. Jan is in play of course because if he wins there is a very good chance he is on the optimal. I will just be underweight to him personally. If I am making 20 lineups, I would think Reyes makes 13-15 and Jan would be in maybe 2. Reyes would be a lock for my cash lineup too.
Winner – Dominick Reyes via 2nd round (T)KO
Israel Adesanya $8,500 vs Paulo Costa $7,700
Israel Adesanya
Age: 31
Height: 6’4
Weight: 185
Reach: 80”
Gym: City Kickboxing
From: Nigeria
UFC Record: 8-0
Fight Matrix: 1
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W19
Betting Odds: -170
Israel Adesanya is getting ready for his stiffest test yet. At 19-0 he has been flawless thus far in his MMA career. He did have a very lackluster fight his last time out, but this fight with Costa should be sweet. Adesanya & Costa have gone back and forth for months, and it’s all finally going to go down. Adesanya is extremely fast twitch & fights like a spring on the feet. He is excellent at inching forward while feinting switching stances and giving different looks. His feints are incredible & if opponents respect his striking & let him get his reads it’s game over. He is good at staying at his range & hand fighting with his lead hand. He has nice leg kicks, and a very good jab. He has a very nice one-two & a laser for a straight-right hand. He has a great step-in knee. He has a great left hook to the body that ends fights and does a great job of finding the openings high and low. He can switch stances & has the same accuracy with the straight-left. He tends to switch stances after he kicks. He has a nice straight, left hook, right combination. He will throw nasty front & lead leg hook kicks to the body & head. He has a great round kick to the head as well & is extremely fast with no tell. He has nice spinning kicks & jump kicks as well when he wants to get creative. He is very good at timing knees when opponents are trying to close the distance. He is very fast, very accurate, and doesn’t waste a lot of strikes. He throws a lot of one shot attacks & doesn’t open himself up to being countered. He only throws combos when he thinks it’s definitely going to land. He has very good footwork, but he isn’t much of a mover. He likes to stand in front of opponents, so he can pull & slip counter. He can back himself to the fence. Almost all his opponents have been able to clinch him against the cage at some point in the fight. Gastelum was able to hurt him when he attacked as Izzy had his back near the cage. I don’t think Adesanya has huge power, but he is so precise & timing beats power. Some of the counters he was landing in his last fight were a thing of beauty. Adesanya does have 13 KO/TKO’s, but only one in 5 UFC fights. He is extremely confident with a good chin at 19-0, but he has been knocked out in kickboxing.
Adesanya is a solid defensive grappler & improving a lot. He has really improved his takedown defense, and even though he isn’t super bulky or muscular, he is very strong in clinch positions. He does a good job of getting the Thai clinch and landing nice, short elbows and knees. He has great hips and does a good job of getting his back to the cage if opponents get in on his legs where he is very hard to take down. He is very strong in the upper body clinch, is hard to control there and he will reverse and turn fighters against the cage or disengage. He can be taken down by body locks sometimes, and when he is on his back he has a decent guard. In his fight with Gastelum, he immediately threw up subs off his back & almost subbed Gastelum. He does a solid job of controlling posture and not taking much damage. If fighters take him down in the center of the cage, which is very hard to do, he doesn’t have a great get-up game and can be controlled from there. He did roll for a leg lock in his fight against Tavares, it wasn’t even close but at least it is showing he is growing and confident enough to try some things in the Jiu-Jitsu realm. He has a very calm demeanor even when he is put in bad positions and he has the confidence he will get out and get back to his feet. He will not panic, and when he returns to his feet he will still have gas and be able to attack heavy. He has never been submitted, and I actually have liked his top game from the small sample size I’ve seen. He has good control, floating ability & ground & pound. Adesanya has elite cardio & doesn’t slow down.
Paulo Costa
Age: 29
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 72”
Gym: Team Borracha
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 5-0
Fight Matrix: 3
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W13
Betting Odds: +150
Paulo Costa needed just five fights to earn his first shot at UFC gold. He was able to get a unanimous decision victory over Yoel Romero in his last fight to solidify his spot. Costa has been basically flawless himself in MMA with a 13-0 record. He did lose on the Ultimate Fighter, but it isn’t on his pro record. This will be by far the best striker Costa has ever fought. Looking at his record, other than Yoel, it’s arguable he hasn’t beaten another top fifteen guy. Hall is ranked right now but a very inconsistent fighter. Costa is a sick athlete and a big, imposing figure for the division. He likes to walk fighters down and get their back against the cage and strike from there. He does a great job of staying long and not smothering his shots while keeping his opponent’s back against the cage. He has a great jab and a great straight-right hand with good hand speed. He will throw a front kick to the body. He will come over the top with a right hand and has big power. He does a great job of seeing the side the fighter is trying to move away and throwing a kick to the head, body or a leg kick to keep them in front of him against the cage. He will stand right in front of opponents faking & feinting while attacking the body & keeping the volume high. His defense is not very good. He gets too over aggressive & will wain in crazily. Hall was able to hurt him due to that & had him on wobbly legs. He also was getting touched up by the jab at will in that fight. Costa does have a solid chin & wears punishment well. He is very cocky & willing to take a shot to give one. Costa has power, but not one-shot power. He tends to need long combos to crumble opponents. He does have 4 TKO’s to start his UFC career & 5 in a row overall. He has finished 11 of his 12 wins by KO/TKO. Costa has been able to run through most of his opponents. He did show he can battle through some adversity in his last fight, but there are still question marks about his gas tank.
Paulo Costa has good doubles and single legs and throws nice, heavy ground and pound. Opponents can get-up from bottom on him. He has great balance on the feet, and never gets out of position. He has pretty good cardio, but I have seen him tired after pushing the takedowns on a TUF show. He gassed and couldn’t stand up after the third round. His takedown defense did look improved vs Romero. I haven’t seen much of Borrachina off his back. He does have one submission victory.
This is going to be epic! In my opinion, Adesanya is the best striker in all the UFC. He has amazing defense and can strike from all angles with any of his weapons. Costa on the other hand might be the scariest striker in the UFC behind Ngannou. He looks like a statue and he has the power to come with it. Not only does he have big power, but he throws at a very high pace and he showed in the Romero fight that he can do it for a hard 15-minutes. I don’t know that he can do that for 25-minutes though and this is a title fight, so he will need to if he can’t get the knockout. Neither of these guys will be looking for takedowns so this will be the striking match we all want, and this is one of the best fights that can be made in any division. Pick wise, I struggled on this one and I went back and forth for the last couple weeks. Ultimately, I think the betting line is about right. Adesanya is going to be the pick, I do think he wins this fight more times than he loses it. However, betting wise, I think this might be dog or pass and maybe Costa wins more than the 40% of the time that the line indicates. I do believe we see these fighters go at it again after this and hopefully this fight is as good live as it is on paper.
This is an absolute all-in fight for me. I think one of these guys will get knocked out and at their salaries that can probably happen in any round and still have a good chance at the optimal. If Costa wins, I think he is a lock for the optimal lineup and it would be a KO or a high volume fight and he is only $8.5k. Izzy could have a slower paced type decision win but I think that will be baked into his ownership already because of his last fight, so I want to be overweight to him and I don’t see him not scoring more than 10x in a win here. Stack this fight in cash, go heavier on whichever guy you like, but get exposure to both guys. I will probably be 7/3 in favor of Izzy and I think he ends up reading the Costa blitzes and counters him with something he doesn’t see coming because he is already committed to running forward throwing bombs. For that reason, Izzy is a core play for me and it’s possible he could be the lesser owned of the two.
Winner – Israel Adesanya via 2nd round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown & be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building & I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend & enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks & predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice & fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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