Back at one of the fastest tracks on the circuit – the beautiful Michigan International Speedway. MIS is a 2 mile oval, with a couple lanes that are viable – depending on weather and PJ1 laid down. It is very much a power track and relies on getting off the corner with speed and carrying it into the next. Passing is very much dependent on the run you get, which is very much dependent on the power under the hood. Drivers will be screaming tight all day, as the fight to get back to the throttle as quickly as possible.
Jul 19, 2020; Fort Worth, TX, USA; Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series driver Kyle Busch (18) and driver Joey Logano (22) and driver Kevin Harvick (4) come down pit row during the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 race at Texas Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
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Top Plays
Kevin Harvick – Chalk chalk chalk, but chalk for good reason. Harvick is an absolute stud at Michigan. In the last four Michigan races, he led significant laps and finished 1,1,2, and 7. Given his form, it would be foolish to think he won’t be a factor this weekend, especially if he is able to grab the lead early. We know they #4 sets their cars up to lead. I think Logano can probably lead the start of this race, but its only a matter of time before Harv takes over.
Ryan Blaney – I think Blaney is on the cusp of breaking through into the Hamlin/Harvick tier. He has consistently been fast and has lead laps at almost all the races dating back to May. He starts 11th, which offers some differential potential, and crew chief Todd Gordon has a tremendous track record here. Michigan is a very good track for team Penske and I think Blaney is the lead horse.
Joey Logano – Speaking on Penske, Logano is in a dangerous spot this week. I really doubt he gets beat off the start, and will likely lead a good portion of the first stage. He dominated this race last year, and he certainly has the ability to do that again. His form hasn’t been as good as of late, and I dont expect him to lead all day, but he certainly should gobble up a bunch of laps led and fast laps before competing for a top 3.
Kyle Busch – This is a pure leverage play. At this point, I know most people are fed up with Kyle Busch and will be leaving them out of their action…lets capitalize on that. Michigan is a very very good track for Kyle Busch, and while 2020 hasnt been up to snuff for KB, lets zoom out a bit. KB has finished top 5 in 40% of races this year, he led significant laps at Kansas, which has some correlation with Michigan AND his teammates are dominating races, so we know the equipment is capable. This is a risky play, but getting KB at $9500 is too sweet to pass up.
Fades
I think the following are bottom tier plays are this week
Quin Houff
Brennan Poole
Joey Gase
Garrett Smithley
Timmy Hill
Reed Sorenson
JJ Yeley
Value Plays
Ricky Stenhouse Jr – It’s never comfortable playing RSJ, given his aggressive driving style – but starting 32nd at $6900 makes your lineup building a lot easier. Ricky has been pretty good at big tracks in 2020, and his aggressive style won’t be punished at Michigan. RSJ should drive into the top 20 without much issue.
Tyler Reddick – I’m hopeful Reddicks 14th starting spot will scare some people off this week – but he is a fantastic play. Michigan has a viable highline that Reddick will be running all day long. I suspect another Homestead-likie performance from Reddick and think he will be flying on the long runs. He is a legit top 5 threat.
Ryan Preece – Preece showed what he was capable of last week, finally shaking his bad luck and running top 15 most of the day before finishing 16th. Draftkings didn’t reward him for his efforts and he is still priced at a ridiculous $5800 – and he starts 35th! Preece finished 7th here last year due to some weird circumstances, and I dont think he is capable of a top ten here – but a top 20 is certainly possible, probable even. He should score very well.
Ty Dillon- Ty Dillon always seems like a good play. He is priced way to low for a car that is cosntantly able to finish in the top 20. He starts 34th, and he nearly always finishes around 20th – that will score well. If things get messy, he could even drive into the top 15.
Other Notables
Denny Hamlin – Obviously a viable play, and probably the best in the field right now. Michigan is a good track for him, but we need him to lead laps agaisnt his second place starting spot. I suspect the Fords will be a bit faster than Toyota – so this is by no means a lock. If they nail the setup though, could be a long day.
Brad Keselowski – See all the stuff I said about Blaney and Logano. Kes starts 5th, so doesnt have the dom potential of Logano or the differential potential of Blaney. That said hes been the best of the Penske’s this year and Michigan is one of his favorite tracks.
Alex Bowman – This is just me holding on to the small glimmer of hope that Bowman finds that early 2020 speed. Probably a stretch though. I suspect Bowman hangs in the top ten but doesnt lead laps. Worth a shot, though.
So there you have it. Make sure you check out the Cheat Sheet as well! Good luck and stay cashing.
