Lets go another round! Dover Race #1 was nothing to write home about, and these double headers always make DFS tough. Lets dig in and see if we can find some value.As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
Aug 22, 2020; Dover, Delaware, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin (11) passes NASCAR Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr. (19) for the lead during the NASCAR Cup Series at Dover International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports
Top Plays
Denny Hamlin – Should be no surprise Hamlin is a top play here for race #2. He starts 20th after an impressive win on Saturday. I think Truex probably has equal speed, but Hamlin is a little bit cheaper and starts a position further back. I suspect he rolls into the top 5 without much issue and is obviously a threat to dominate the later portions of this race.
Martin Truex Jr. – These doubleheaders are always so chalky…but these inverts just makes it so tough to fade these guys. Truex was top 2 all day and was well on his way to winning yesterday before getting held up by lap traffic. Hamlin clearly had the late run speed, but Truex wasn’t too far off. He is priced up, so I don’t like him as much as Hamlin, but I dont see how the field can keep Truex out of the top 3.
Kyle Busch – They priced Busch up a little, but not enough to keep me from playing him. He starts 18th, and while he complained about the car all day – he was still able to run with his teammates at the start of runs. KB with a whole race worth of information downloaded is a dangerous proposition, and he should hit the track with great speed and compete for a win.
Alex Bowman – Bowman is likely going to a backup after being caught up in an incident very early in this race. He never really got a shot to flex any muscle, but given how fast his teammates were at times – Bowman should run in the top ten today. I think Kurt Busch will be the chalk play in this range, so hopefully we get great leverage on Bowman.
Fades
Quin Houff
Brennan Poole
Joey Gase
Timmy Hill
BJ McLeod
Reed Sorenson
JJ Yeley
Garrett Smithley
Josh Bilicki
Value Plays
Matt Kenseth – Kenseth continues to be priced down, and can now be had for just $6300. He starts 22nd, and had an average running position of 21st yesterday. He should be able to improve on that today, and run solidly inside the top 20 today.
Bubba Wallace – I am hopeful Bubba is going to go overlook today as players flock to JHN, who has become “weekly value” over the course of this season. Bubba ran around 20th most of the day yesterday, and should be able to repeat the performance today. He starts one spot better than JHN (26th), and cost $100 less. Nice leverage play…I think.
Christopher Bell – Bell was super unremarkable yesterday, but pricing him at $6900 when he starts 24th is all wrong. Bell was pretty strong at Dover in the Xfinity, and his experience yesterday should give him enough juice to run in the top 15 today. Wouldnt be surprised if LFR leans on their JGR alliance for notes, too.
Corey Lajoie – Fair warning, I 100% think Preece is the better play here, but not by much and I THINK he will siphon alot of ownership away from Lajoie. At $5500 and starting 30th, he is pretty low risk. He didn’t have any juice yesterday and ran 27th about all day. In the other double headers, Lajoie has improved or held serve in the second race. I think we can get a nice leverage play with Lajoie and he will score well with a top 25.
Other Notables
Clint Bowyer – I touted Bowyer in race one and this is an even better spot for him, so I will go back to the well. He starts 15th at $8200 and was sneakily a top four car all day. This is a really good look, especially considering Kurt Busch is likely to be the main look in this area.
Brad Keselowski – Keselowski didn’t get much airtime yesterday, but he was pretty solidly inside the top six all day. He was second to only Hamlin in terms of quality passes, so he should have no problem dicing through the field. Todd Gordon should make improvements on this car and I think he can compete with Truex and Hamlin.
Kurt Busch – Slate chalk. I don’t love it, because this is a backup car and Busch didnt get any laps to tune his car yesterday, and I am not sure his teammate will provide much insight. That said, Busch is a saavy veteran and should be able to compete for a top 10 and score well.
So there you have it. Make sure you check out the Cheat Sheet as well! Good luck and stay cashing.
