The greatest show on pavement makes it way back to Daytona this weekend, but this time we are turning left AND right. Listen…if you are looking for sure things, I would take the week off. While there is a few metrics we can use to try and cap this race, there are just too many unknowns to speak with confidence. This is the first time the Cup cars will be running this course, and it represents the longest track the series has tackled in many decades. Strategy wise, I suspect place differential will be at a premium. So with further ado, lets take a look at some plays I think could be valuable.
Aug 8, 2020; Brooklyn, Michigan, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) holds the lead against Brad Keselowski (2) as they round turn four during the NASCAR Cup Series race at Michigan International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
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Top Plays
Ryan Blaney – The obvious chalk of the slate. Blaney starts 24th and has a roval win to his name (Charlotte). He has finished top 12 in his last four road course starts, and the Penske power this team is brining to the race track as of late should serve him very well on the oval portions of the course. Blaney has developed into a confident road course driver and should drive to the top 5 and have a chance to win.
Brad Keselowski – Touting the two most expensive drives on the slate isn’t exciting, I know. But like I said, place differential is going to be so important. Brad K rolls off 17th and he is an underrated road-course racer. He finished top 5 at the Charlotte Roval last year, and was leading laps in 2018 before having issues. He is a top ten staple at just about every road course we go to. I suspect it will be more of the same this weekend, and like Blaney…he gets that Penske power too.
Kevin Harvick- Even with few domination points on the slate and no potential for differential points, Harvick is way underpriced here. Harvick is an underappreciated road course racer, and was leading laps at the Charlotte roval last year. He will control the start, and will have the opportunity to set the pace of this race. It’s a risky play since anything expect a win will probably take him out of the optimal – but even still, you have to do some real digging to find an instance of Harvick falling out of the top ten on a road course. Harvick at 9600 and likely sub-30% ownership is too sweet to pass up.
Alex Bowman – A pure place differential play. Bowman will start way back in 27th, and while he is by no means a road course ace…he is RELIABLE, boasting top 15 finishes in all his RC attempts with Hendricks. A repeat of that performance puts him in the optimal.
Fades
Given the potential chaos of this race, and the possiblity of a wet race track, I think all drivers are in play. That said – all the usual backmarkers should be played with caution.
Value Plays
Michael McDowell – Probably the chalk value play. While I think McDowell’s road course prowess is often overstated, it can’t be ignored. He is a reliable road course driver whose experince should serve him well. Whats more, is he starts 30th – so we just need a top 20. Should be no sweat for McDowell.
Brendan Gaughan – It seems like every time Gaughan puts on the Cup Series driver suit he is a good play. This week is no different. While he is priced a little higher than I’d like, that 39th place starting spot cant be ignore. Gaughan is an incredibly skilled road course driver, and if this race turns wet he will have a major advantage on the field. The equipment is going to be rock solid as well (it’s likely RCR gear). Gaughan has more money then he knows what to do with. He will spend to have a good piece. One of my favorite plays on the slate.
John H. Nemechek – JHN is a decent RC with a MoSport win on his record. This is a risky play, because JHN is an aggressive driver and that could punish him at a track like this. However, value is tough to find this week and a top 20 scores 30. Worth a look.
James Davison- HUGE RISK WITH JD. This is a Rick Ware car, after all, and the equipment is as sketchy as can be. That said, Davison is probably the most talented pure road course racer in the field, and should this race turn wet, he will have a real shot at a top 20 or even a top 15 (Davison says he can win if it turns wet…that’s a bit of a stretch). A top 30 is much more likely, but given the lack of value on this slate – he gives you lots of wiggle room.
Other Notables
Chase Elliott – Chase has had a ton of success on road course races as of late, and has won the last two. As such, I think he will be over owned on this slate. Even so, he is a great play and can dominate this race.
Martin Truex Jr – MTJ is an amazing road course driver, but the lack of differential potential scares me. He can domiante this race, though.
Denny Hamlin – This race has Hamlin domination written all over it. He thrives in chaos, and you know he has logged a ton of laps on the simulator to prepare for this. Again, its just a lack of differential potential that makes him risky.
Erik Jones – Risky differential play. He is a good RC driver, but tends to be boom or bust.
So there you have it. Make sure you check out the Cheat Sheet as well! Good luck and stay cashing.
