Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! We head to Michigan this week for another double header, with two slightly shorter races than what we’re used to at this track.
As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet. If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.
Michigan International Speedway
Michigan is a big 2-mile long track, most similar to Auto Club Speedway. While it’s true that it’s about the same size as Daytona/Talladega, remember that we don’t have restricted engines here, so we’re not going to see nose-to-bumper racing the whole time. In other words, don’t go into this one expecting huge wrecks to push the cheap guys up.
Also, if you recall from last season, this is one of the main tracks where I avoid the punts like the plague. That holds true even more this time around, seeing as a lot of them are starting in the 20’s, and will be lucky to finish inside the top-30. Even without seeing the starting lineup for Sunday, I can confidently say we can ignore all the punts this weekend.
Where did all the laps go?
Since it is such a big track, that means we will see fewer laps, but even fewer than normal due to having two shortened races. Where we would normally see around 200 laps, we’ll only see 156 each, which is among the fewest we’ll see the rest of the season. With that in mind, we’ll still want at least one dominator in all formats, but I wouldn’t go for more than two dominators on either site. Cash and GPP can be treated the same, as you could take one or two in either format (I’d probably go for two on DraftKings and one on FanDuel for general purposes).
The name of the game here finishing position and place differential. Similar to Daytona/Talladega for sure, but without the expected chaos. We’ll just have to find drivers that can earn their finishes naturally!
Aug 11, 2019; Brooklyn, MI, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Brad Keselowski (2) before the Consumers Energy 400 at Michigan Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports
The Field
Dominators
Logano will start from the pole, and with his history of running up front here, I don’t think it should be overly difficult for him to snag a chunk to start this thing. Fortunately, he’s not terribly expensive, so even if he only sees part of stage 1 in the lead, a decent finish will still return plenty of cash value. In other words, I’m fine taking him in all formats as a primary dominator.
Behind him lurks Harvick, another strong option who could lead at any point in the race, making him viable as either a primary or secondary dominator option. In other words, feel free to pair him up with anybody else here without fear of them not being able to share lead laps. He’s not exactly cheap, but he would only need around 50-75 lead laps (with a strong finish) to be in the winning lineup. If you can afford him in cash, feel free to run him there, but if not, be sure you’re playing him in GPP!
Next up is Truex, who is basically a pure secondary dominator version of Harvick. He’s really turned it up here over the last several races, and there’s a very good chance we’ll see him ease into the lead at some point in the second half of the race. Don’t be afraid to run a few Harvick/Truex lineups in the event that Logano/Hamlin don’t take the early laps!
Our final “main candidate” would be Keselowski, for mostly the same reason we would take him at any other track – he’s almost always a threat to randomly hop up front and lead a bunch of laps, sort of like he did last weekend. Even without that, this is a strong track for him, and it’s his home track, so don’t be too surprised to see him repeat here. I see him as more of a secondary dominator option.
After those four, we have a few GPP pivots we can look at; Hamlin, Blaney, Kyle Busch, Elliott, and Almirola are all in play, and I’d say that’s roughly the order I would rank them. I don’t think their chances are nearly as high as the first four listed in this section, but they’re worth having exposure to since they should see lower ownership and could still put up a big score. Hamlin and Almirola would be primary dominator options, while the other three would be better suited as secondary dominators.
Finally, a quick reminder that Elliott can also be used for cash games on FanDuel.
Studs / value studs
We have some familiar choices here; Bell and Jones are both starting fairly deep for the kind of finish they’re capable of, and are of course top options for this group. You know the deal by now!
Two drivers that I find to be more interesting options are Byron and Kurt Busch. Byron has shown he can hang out around the top-10 here, and another finish there could put him in the winning lineup, possibly over Bell/Jones (or paired with one of them, so don’t think you HAVE to use him as a direct pivot here).
As for Kurt, he can do one better, as he tends to be closer to the top-5 area when he runs here, but unfortunately he’s not starting nearly as deep as the others. For that reason, I do like him better on FanDuel, but he’s still cheap enough to be in service in the event that these other guys have issues and don’t really pull through. With that in mind, I’d use him as more of a pivot instead of using him as a stacking option on DraftKings, though on Fanduel you can stack away.
Two other interesting options, who are basically cheaper versions of Kurt, are Reddick and Custer. Both are driving well above their pay grade and have realistic shots at a top-10. They’re cheap enough that they can be used on both sites, but I think they could be particularly useful on FanDuel, where I think we’ll see at least one (possibly both) in the winning lineup.
Buescher is sort of the top-15 version of those two, but with some help, and if they fall through, he could be the winning lineup with a lucky top-10. I’d use him more as a pivot to those two rather than trying to stack them (he’ll need them to falter). Either way, be sure you have exposure to him on both sites, because he can at least put himself into position to take advantage of others’ bad fortune.
For our standard pivots, we’re looking at DiBenedetto, Kenseth, Johnson, Austin, and Bowman. Considering starting position and upside, I like them roughly in this order.
Value / punts
Moving down the list, Ty is once again a top option, and he feels a bit under-priced considering how well he’s been performing at the fast tracks. Starting 34th, his absolute bottom, worse case scenario floor would have to be about a top-25, but I think a top-20 is more like it. Funny, because a top-20 is all he would need to be in the conversation of being in the winning lineup. However, as we’ve seen, he has a top-15 ceiling here, which would be overkill for how cheap he is.
Nemechek isn’t too far behind, however he is a bit more expensive, so I would have to give the overall nod to Ty here. Still, if you can afford him, get him, because he can rack up a healthy score as well (you can pivot between them or stack them). Preece is right there with him, though I do think his floor is going to be lower, so I would look at the other two for cash purposes, and leave him more to the GPPs.
Another interesting option (man, there sure are a lot of those, huh?) is LaJoie, who has actually looked fairly strong at the speedways this year and racked up two impressive finishes here last year (23rd and 21st place). Like Ty, he’s cheap enough that another performance like that could put him in the winning lineup, though unlike Ty, I don’t think he has much more in him than that. Still, definitely get exposure here, because he’s still got a good chance of being in the winning lineup.
Our pivots here are…hey look, Stenhouse! He’s starting in the 30’s again, isn’t terribly expensive, and has lots of finishing position upside…if he can put together a clean race. Because I can’t completely trust him to do that, I would lean GPP here, but be sure to play him. He’s once again the ultimate high risk/high reward play.
McDowell is still in play, even starting 21st, though it’s risky, so GPP only. I’m not sure that he could naturally put himself near the top-10 like he did at Pocono, since there’s not quite as much of a skill check here, but you’ll want to have exposure to him if he manages to do it. I do think it’s more likely the others are in the winning lineup over him, but hey, you never know.
And for Suarez, well…this is a race where having a slow clunker really hurts you, so I’m leaning more towards a fade here.
Quick recap
Dominators (1-2 for all formats…2 for DK cash, 1 for FD cash)
- Primary – Logano, Harvick, Hamlin, Almirola
- Secondary – Harvick/Truex, Keselowski, Blaney, Elliott
- Solo – Logano, Harvick
Studs
- Bell, Jones, Byron, Kurt (FD)
- Pivots – DiBenedetto, Kenseth, Johnson, Austin, Bowman
Value studs
- Reddick/Custer, Buescher
Value drivers
- Ty, Nemechek, Preece, LaJoie
- Pivots – Stenhouse, McDowell, Suarez
Punts
- I’d rather pay up to the value drivers here
Closing thoughts
This looks to be a great race to use that dominator stacking feature on some of the cheaper drivers (studs / value studs and value), so don’t be afraid to force the Domination Station to cram in all the strong options in the low/mid range (see the quick recap or coach’s cheat sheet for a quick, well…recap). Also remember that we only have 156 laps here, so don’t go overboard with the dominators (which is part of why I recommend using the dominator stacking feature on different drivers this time). Good luck this weekend, and I’ll see you all in Slack!
