Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! It’s another double-header weekend, this time the short track variety at Dover. Races here are always great, and what could be better than having two of them? Let’s dig in to see how we can make it profitable as well as entertaining!
As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet. If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.
Dover International Speedway
Ah, the Monster Mile. As the name implies, it’s a 1-mile long (short) track, as well as quite a monster to handle. Why is that? Well, there’s some pretty steep banking here, so even though it’s a short track, there will be plenty of speed to go around. Because of that, it’ll be more like Bristol than it would be Martinsville, so be sure you’re cross-referencing the right track. It also means there’s a better chance for some chaos, which makes me like this track more for GPP than it does cash games. That’s not to say you can’t play cash here, but if you wanted to skip it this time around, I wouldn’t argue against it.
Dust off those dominators again
Each of these races will have 311 laps, which will make the dominators a lot more important than they were last weekend. On DraftKings I would look at two for cash games and two to three for GPP, where on FanDuel I would look at one to two for all formats. You could try a few solo dominator lineups, but honestly, there will probably be enough lead changes to where I don’t see that working out.
We have some hybrids again this week (well, the first race at least…we’ll see what the second one brings), so remember that you can run them with any of the dominator(s) you want without worrying about them cutting into each other’s ceilings. Speaking of which, let’s go over them.
The Field
Hybrids
We get a couple of hybrids for this race, starting with one Kyle Busch. I worry about his lack of practice at other races, but not at the short tracks. I give him a top-10 floor with a top-3 / 100+ lead lap ceiling. He’s a top play in all formats and you can mix & match him with whoever you want. He’s under-priced, and even an “average finish” (for him) has him knocking on the door of being in the winning lineup.
Blaney is the other option, and while he is a good one, I don’t like him quite as much as I do Kyle Busch. That’s mostly because his dominator upside is weaker (also, he’s rather expensive on DraftKings), but he’s still a strong option if you can afford him. For cash games I would prioritize Kyle.
Dominators
Chase and Denny are two of the main targets here for a primary dominator. Either would be fine for cash games, but I’d probably opt for Chase since he’s on the pole. For GPP they’re virtually equals, and I don’t even mind stacking them in some lineups since there are plenty of laps to go around. There’s a good chance at least one of them are in the winning lineup.
After that, Harvick and Truex are strong options, as well as Keselowski. I’d probably rank them in that order. Harvick and Keselowski offer some place differential and can be used as secondary dominators, while Truex can be used as either a primary or secondary (in other words, he can be paired with anybody else without any concern).
Bowyer is always worth having exposure to at short tracks since he can sneak up front and snag a small/medium chunk, so don’t forget to run him in GPP. Consider him a secondary/accessory type of dominator. Logano is less likely to lead, but I do think he has the higher ceiling if he’s able to. Both of these are GPP pivots.
Oct 6, 2019; Dover, DE, USA; A view of the Miles the Monster statue in the Victory Lane Plaza prior to the Drydene 400 at Dover International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports
Studs / value studs
Assuming he races, which I believe he will, Austin Dillon is the top option here. He’s a bit more expensive than he normally is, but his starting position and strong short track game more than make up for it. Great option to pay up for in all formats.
His direct (salary-wise) competition is Jones and Almirola. Jones doesn’t look overly appealing, starting 13th and being more expensive, but that does mean he should see less ownership. Almirola is basically a more expensive Bowyer with more place differential upside, but less dominator potential. Either way, these two are decent pivots if you’re looking for lower-owned pivots to Austin (or feel free to stack a couple of them, because they won’t interfere with each other’s ceilings).
The indirect pivots would be Bell, Custer, and Reddick. Bell has solid top-10 upside here, and could even see a top-5 if things play out just right for him. Custer has that same upside, and does come with a little extra place differential, but his short track game this year hasn’t quite been there. Still, these two offer lots of upside for the money. Finally, I love Reddick here, as his raw finishing position is even better than Bell/Custer and I think he’ll see less ownership since he’s starting closer to the front. That makes him one of my favorite GPP pivots on the board.
You could probably fit Kenseth into that group as well. Lots of place differential for the money, and though he didn’t do much at the normal short tracks, he did finish 10th at Darlington.
Either way, the plan here is simple: get lots of Austin and use Bell/Custer/Reddick/Kenseth to compliment him, or use Jones/Almirola as a lower-owned pivot (or just stack the crap out of all of these guys).
FanDuel studs
Kurt/Bowman are sort of the same as Bowyer/Almirola, but not quite as strong. While they can be used on DraftKings as a secondary/accessory dominator, I do think they’re best served on FanDuel as lower-priced studs. Byron/Johnson can be used the same, as they offer top-10 (or even top-5) upside at a reduced cost while not carrying as much ownership as other drivers that are more expensive. Lean GPP on these four drivers.
Value drivers
Nemechek tops the list here, starting 31st and offering some of (if not the) best raw finishing position upside in this price range. His finishes at Darlington/Bristol rival that of drivers much more expensive than him, so be sure to take advantage of that. Preece isn’t too far behind him, and I love him for GPP use (he’s fine for cash as well). I think there’s a pretty good chance we see one of these two in the winning lineup, and there’s a chance we see both, so don’t be afraid to stack them.
Wallace is the next best option, as his 10th place finish at Bristol gives him a lot of potential here. It’s hard to know when he’ll show up for the speedways, but short tracks are a better place to take shots with him. He’s cheap and starts 24th, so be sure you’re playing him.
Suarez has a natural top-25 ceiling, which could even turn into a top-20 if we see some chaos. His car may suck, but he’s talented, can avoid wrecks, and tends to finish a race, so he’s worth sprinkling around. I don’t think he has quite the same raw upside as the other three here do, but if they don’t come through, his lower ceiling might still be enough.
And finally, Ty Dillon is an option, but despite how strong he’s been at the speedways, he just hasn’t had it at the shorter tracks this year (his best finish was 19th at Darlington). Still, he’s driving above his pay grade, and could surprise us with a top-15 or something, so be sure you’ve got some exposure to him in GPP. For cash games, go with Nemechek.
Punts
I don’t really love the punts here, but sort of like Daytona/Talladega, if we see some chaos, they could cheese a better-than-expected finish. If that happens, they could see a top-25 or so, and possibly be in the winning lineup, but if not, they’ll finish in the 30s and will hold back a lineup. It’s a gamble, so keep them in GPP and pay up for Nemechek in cash. Also, if you decide to use a punt, I don’t recommend stacking them. Rather, if you need two cheap drivers, pay up a little for the other one.
As for who, in no real order…Yeley, Sorenson, Gase, Smithley, and LaJoie. There’s no real rhyme or reason to this except that they can hang on and win, and have had some decent mid/high 20’s finishes at the shorter tracks this year, so there at least some hope.
Quick recap
Hybrids
- Kyle Busch, Blaney
Dominators (2 DraftKings cash 2-3 DraftKings GPP, 1-2 FanDuel all formats)
- Primary – Elliott/Hamlin (cash/GPP), Truex (GPP)
- Secondary – Harvick/Truex, Keselowski, Bowyer/Logano
Studs
- Austin Dillon
- Pivots – Jones/Almirola
- FanDuel pivots – Kurt/Bowman, Byron/Johnson
Value studs
- Bell/Custer/Reddick/Kenseth (Reddick being my favorite lower-owned option)
Value drivers
- Nemechek, Preece
- Pivots – Wallace, Suarez, Ty Dillon
Punts (GPP only)
- Yeley/Sorenson/Gase/Smithley, LaJoie
Closing thoughts
Things are a lot different this week than last, so be sure you’re changing your approach. It’s not quite a 500-lap behemoth, but 311 laps is a lot more than 65, so don’t forget about your dominators. This race also is unique in that there are several places you could utilize the dominator stacking feature, so don’t feel like you HAVE to use it on the dominators. Using it to shuffle the studs/value studs could also work, if you want to really cram them in. Either way, there are a lot of good ways to go this week, so put on your thinking cap and outsmart the field. Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!
