Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! We head to Daytona for a good old fashioned…wait a second, road course?! I thought Daytona was for plate-style races. Huh, well this should be interesting. Let’s dig in!
As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet. If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.
Daytona Road Course
We won’t see our usual road courses this season. Rather, we’ll have our trip around the Roval in October, and this weekend we’ll get to see the Daytona Road Course. These two tracks are a lot more similar to one another than they are Watkins Glen or Sonoma, so I would probably lean more towards using the Roval data to get an idea of what might play out here.
If you’re unfamiliar with what we’re seeing this week, they basically took Daytona and chopped part of the track out, then added some turns and other various things to slow the drivers down and make them do a lot more turns than what we see at other tracks. This gives us a bump from a 2 mile track up to 3.81 miles. This modified track has actually been around for a while, it’s just not something we’re used to seeing with these cup cars.
Feb 17, 2020; Daytona Beach, Florida, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Chase Elliott (9) leads the field during the Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports
Where did all the laps go?
There are only 65 laps here, which is likely the fewest of any normal race I have ever covered. That of course means the need for dominators is at an all time low. For DraftKings I don’t mind taking one dominator for GPP, but for FanDuel I wouldn’t even worry about it. Finishing position and place differential (FP/PD) are going to be king on both sites, so I would focus my attention there instead.
The Field
Hybrids
They aren’t cheap (on DraftKings at least), but we have two strong options here this week – Blaney and Keselowski. They’re not only great FP/PD options with top-5 upside, but they led laps in the Roval races (Blaney also won the 2018 race). Even a modest top-10 has a chance to put them in the winning lineup, but they both carry far more upside than just that. They also offer very strong floors, so if you’re playing cash, I would consider running them there (that shouldn’t be very hard to do on either site).
We have a third option as well, who might actually be stronger than the other two. That would be Bowman, who is cheaper, starts deeper, and actually finished better at the Roval (4th and 2nd) than the other two did. He may not offer as much lead lap upside, but he doesn’t really need it. Unless he wrecks, there’s a pretty good chance that he’ll be in the winning lineup, so be sure you have plenty of exposure to him (unless you want to fade some of the chalk). For cash games, definitely start here. You can run all three of these guys together if you’d like.
Dominators
I was ready to just fade Harvick this week, but I actually don’t mind him with his reduced price of only $9,600 on DraftKings. He led 34 laps at the Roval on his way to a 3rd place finish last year, so if he can do something like that again, he could contend to be in the winning lineup. If you’re playing cash games, I would probably opt for the hybrids instead, but you can’t rule out Harvick for GPP here.
The next best option seems to be Elliott, who is easily one of (if not the) best road course drivers in the field currently. He led 35 laps and won at the Roval last year, and if he can find his way to the front again, I can easily see him leading 30-40+ laps. Again, I don’t think we need him for cash games, but definitely have exposure to him in GPP.
After that we have some random options – Hamlin/Truex, Kyle Busch, Logano, and Almirola/Kurt. I don’t really love any of them, but I would put them in roughly that order. They would be worth sprinkling around in GPP, but I don’t think we need any of them for cash games (at least not on DraftKings).
A note on Truex – yes, he’s a great road course racer, but I hate how expensive he is this week. It’s hard to imagine him being in the winning lineup on either site if he can’t just camp out up front for a while, so only play him if you see him doing that.
Studs / value studs
The “obvious” choice here is Gaughan, who will start 39th (dead last) for $7,500 / $4,000 (DK/FD). He has plenty of floor here, but remember that he tends to be called for regular Daytona/Talladega races, not for a road course version of this track. His cup series road course history is almost non-existent – in 2004 he finished 26th and Sonoma and 34th at Watkins Glen. His XF history is better, with 23 races and ten top-10s, four top-5s, and one win. I’m sure he’ll be popular, so if you want to fade some chalk to help leverage some ownership, this would be a good place to do it.
I really like Custer here. He’s starting just ahead of Bowman, is even cheaper, and in 11 road course races in the XF series, he scored nine top-10s and one top-5. Granted the competition wasn’t as strong there, but that’s a really good starting point, and he hasn’t had much problem running strong races against the better competition in the cup series.
Reddick, as usual, is right there with him. Starting 18th, in 8 road course races in XF, he snagged five top-10s (four of which were top-5s). We need lots of FP/PD here, and Reddick offers his fair share, just as Custer does.
Bell is right there with those two, but doesn’t offer quite as much place differential. However, in 9 road course races in XF, he had five top-10s (four top-5s) and one victory. Definitely worth having exposure to him here in GPP.
FanDuel studs
Jones has had a lot of success at both Sonoma and Watkins Glen (multiple top-10 and top-5 finishes between them), however, his two Roval races didn’t go very well. That (and his price on DraftKings) may make me want to look elsewhere for cash games (i.e. paying down to Bowman), but for GPP, he’s a great option to pay up for. He’s fairly inexpensive on FanDuel for his upside.
Johnson has a lot of experience at this track, but him starting 11th makes me like him more over on FanDuel. That’s not to say he’s not worth having on DraftKings, because he is, but he’ll need several other drivers to have bad finishes to be in the winning lineup. Lean GPP here, too.
Bowyer and Byron both offer top-5 upside (especially Bowyer, who finished 4th and 3rd at the Roval races…Byron finished 6th last year), but unfortunately, they don’t offer a ton of place differential upside. Like Johnson, they could really come into play on DraftKings if some other drivers have bad races, but if nothing else, they make great FanDuel options.
I don’t see DiBenedetto or Kurt grabbing a ton of ownership, but both could see top-5 finishes, so they’re good options to pay up for to be different than everybody who will be looking at the other options in this price range (FanDuel options, mainly).
Value drivers
McDowell is the main target here. He finished 18th and 12th at the two Roval races, and with how he’s looked in 2020, I could even see him improving on that. He’s not exactly cheap, but he offers much more upside than even his new increased price would lead you to believe. Feel free to go here in all formats.
Suarez is a decent pivot to him, though his Roval performances (21st and 34th) weren’t fantastic, and he was in much better equipment then. Still, he’s worth having some exposure to since he starts so deep, but keep him in GPP only.
Nemechek, Ty Dillon, Stenhouse/Buescher/Wallace/Newman, and LaJoie are all options to use as pivots, and I like them roughly in that order. I wouldn’t go crazy on any of them (unless you find something that makes you really like them), but certainly sprinkle them around since we’ll need some fillers.
Punts
Poole has no experience at the road courses in a cup car, but in 6 races in the XF series, he managed four top-10s and a top-5. That puts him in play here as a GPP option, used the same as you would Preece. Davison is in the same boat here (two top-10s and a top-5 in his 4 races…none in cup). I like them both, but I would give the nod to Davison due to price and starting position (I don’t mind him for cash games on DraftKings).
Preece actually makes a pretty interesting option. Now, it’s not that I think he’s going to go out and grab a top-5 or anything, but because he’s so cheap, he opens up options to where we can really spam the hybrids and other strong FP/PD options. If he can just hold his spot for a while, then sneak a few spots along the way, he could return just enough value to be in the winning lineup. This only works if the other punts lay a dud, so don’t stack them. GPP only!
Quick recap
Hybrids (basically core in all formats)
- Blaney/Keselowski/Bowman
Dominators (1 at the absolute most in GPP, but don’t feel like you HAVE to take them)
- Primary – Harvick/Elliott
- Pivots – Hamlin/Truex, Kyle Busch, Logano, Almirola/Kurt
Studs
- Gaughan, Custer/Reddick, Bell
- Pivots – Jones/Bowyer/Byron
- FanDuel pivots – Bowyer/Byron/Johnson, DiBenedetto/Kurt
Value drivers
- McDowell
- Pivots – Suarez, Nemechek, Ty Dillon, Stenhouse/Buescher/Wallace/Newman, LaJoie
Punts
- Davison
- Pivots – Poole/Preece
Closing thoughts
This is sure to be a unique experience for the cup series, one we may or may not get to see again, so be sure to tune in to this one. Since it is so unique, I feel like a lot of the field will be a bit clueless as to where to go, so I think we’ll be able to find some edges all over the place…cash included. If you don’t already, this would be a great time to deploy some cash ladders instead of just playing basic cash games (and you may not even need a dominator for your ladder to go off). Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!
