BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC Vegas 8 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card at the UFC Apex in Vegas that will have no fans in attendance due to the pandemic. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games & look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience & you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player & it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups & 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights & hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Sean Brady $9,300 vs Christian Aguilera $6,900
Sean Brady
Age: 27
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Renzo Gracie Philly
From: Pennsylvania
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 35
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W12
Betting Odds: -400
Brady has lived up to the hype so far in his first two UFC fights. He has gotten two decision victories and looked good doing it. At 12-0 Brady is a couple wins away from challenging that top ten, in my opinion. Brady is a technical striker. He likes to walk opponents down, cut them off, & uses feints to get inside well. He will switch stances to cut opponents off. He has solid head & body movement. Brady has nice low kicks. He will use his jab & left hook along with one-twos & overhands to back opponents up. Brady will attack with some round kicks to the legs, body & head, but doesn’t put a lot of power on them. Brady pushes fighters back & gets inside well. He showed an excellent left hook counter in his last match that dropped McGee hard. Sean Brady has 3 KO/TKO’s. He has power, but he chooses to not throw full power most of the time. He is undefeated at 12-0 and showed good durability overall.
Brady is a strong grappler. Brady is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu under Daniel Gracie. Brady will look to mix it up & primarily grapples in fights. Brady has pretty good singles & doubles, but really excels at getting takedowns in the clinch. He will use his striking to back opponents up, and when he can get into body locks against the cage, he dumps opponents easily. He has nice trips in the clinch. Brady is good at shooting in on a double & driving his opponent to the cage. He will chain wrestle until he can get the takedown. Brady likes to move to half guard, get the cross body, and look for kimuras & straight armbars. He will trap the wrist and land punches to the body and head. Brady will also trap the wrist & use ground & pound to force opponents to give their back where he can maintain good control. He only has one career rear naked choke. Brady isn’t a big finisher. He cares more about control & position, and if the finish comes he will take it. Brady has 2 submissions. Brady has great cardio and usually breaks opponents as fights go on.
Christian Aguilera
Age: 28
Height: 5’9
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: Total MMA Studios
From: California
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 130
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +325
Aguilera looked great in his UFC debut. He got Anthony Ivy out of there in the first round which has been his thing throughout his career. That was Aguilera’s 10th first round knockout, and the sixth in under one minute. Aguilera comes out hot early & it’s kill or be killed. Out of his 20 fights, 14 have not gone past round one. Aguilera is actually pretty good. He is a wrestler/boxer. Aguilera on the feet has huge one-shot power. He has a good jab, good forward pressure, and dangerous short hooks inside. Aguilera will look to counter with hooks and has a vicious uppercut. He comes out very hard & looks to overwhelm and finish guys early with his power. Aguilera does throw some naked kicks that get him countered or taken down. He struggles moving backwards & just is a defensive liability. He relies on his chin & power too much & can get stuck throwing one shot at a time. When fighters push him backward & throw in combination he is hittable. He holds his hands low as he enters range. Aguilera has a questionable chin as well. He has been KO/TKO’d 4 times in the first round. He has 11 KO/TKO’s himself.
Aguilera is a powerhouse, and you can see that in his grappling. Aguilera likes to mix it up especially once he gets past round one. He has good timing on his double legs and nice takedowns against the cage. On top, Aguilera is a grinder. He likes to get to half guard or side control, sit in a dominant position and ride opponents out. When they try to stand up, he is good at using the wrestling ride position to keep them down. He has pretty decent back takes. He isn’t a submission threat though with zero in his career. Aguilera can get sloppy when trying to pass & get swept. He also can be taken down in the later rounds once he slows down. Off his back, I’ve seen him dominated a couple times. He has decent get-ups against the cage, but against good ground fighters who can pass his guard he will be in trouble. Aguilera did win his last fight by grinding out a wrestling heavy decision. He has never been submitted either. Aguilera is a fighter who can be winning the fight & make a mistake and lose. Overall, he’s a good athlete, big for the division, big KO power, solid grappling, good cardio and is a good fighter. It’s just small lapses in concentration or slight errors that get him finished against the higher level.
Brady is the better overall fighter and he is going to be the pick here. 4-1 is pretty wild though and Aguilera might look like the better striker early in round 1 and he could get a knockout as well. Aguilera is the more dangerous striker of the two here but if he doesn’t get an early knockout he probably loses, and Brady could get takedowns and cruise to an easy decision if he can weather the storm.
Brady is probably going to end up being a core play for me here. I think if he weathers the early storm he will start to dominate this fight and could get multiple takedowns and a lot of strikes on the ground that hopefully FM counts as significant. I like Brady in all formats this week, but the early minutes could be a worry and that makes Aguilar in play because he could break the slate with a 1st round KO as the cheapest guy on the card. GPP only play but I think we can throw him in a small % of lineups in the hopes to hit big.
Winner – Sean Brady via Unanimous Decision
Emily Whitmire $8,200 vs Polyana Viana $8,000
Emily Whitmire
Age: 28
Height: 5’4
Weight: 115
Reach: 63.5”
Gym: Xtreme Coutute
From: Oregon
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 2 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -145
Emily Whitmire will be looking to bounce back after a rough last outing vs Amanda Ribas. She was submitted in the second round. Whitmire is a more polished striker than Viana. She is a tall fighter with a 4-inch height advantage in this fight. She likes to use a jab & a straight-right hand. She keeps her punches straight & that the jab should cause Viana issues. Whitmire will throw the occasional round kick to the body. I have not seen her throw the front kick to the body much, but I feel that kick will be more effective in this fight. Viana comes in on straight lines & she could use it as a second jab, along with putting money in the bank with body blows. She will throw decent inside, outside leg kicks at time. She likes to throw a straight-right hand to a body kick combination. She stands very tall & doesn’t have the quickest feet. Whitmire has improved with her footwork, but she still can be too flat footed & fighters get inside on her. She isn’t dangerous & doesn’t have knockout power. She has been TKO’d one time on TUF, but she wasn’t hurt bad, she just got stuck in a position on the ground & couldn’t get out of it.
Whitmire is big & physical for the division. Both of her losses have come at 125 lbs, and she’s looked much better since moving to 115. She is a wrestler and has good, fast entries on her clinch takedowns. She does a good job of getting a strong body lock position, finding an angle and dumping her opponents. She will control position in the clinch if she can’t land the takedown and look for trips while landing some knees against the cage. Her takedown defense is strong. She is very good in the clinch and is good at disengaging & throwing knees & punches off the break. She needs to make Viana pay whenever she tries to get in the clinch in this match. She is not very good off her back, but she showed slight improvements in the Gillian Robertson fight, and heart to try to persevere and survive bad positions. She allows opponents to get to dominant positions far too easily. She did a good job of getting Robertson off her back and getting on top. She actually landed a couple nice ground & pound shots before getting armbarred by a pretty nasty transition. Gillian Robertson has proven to be the real deal. In her last match she was out grappled & gave her back up which resulted in her being rear naked choked. On top, Whitmire uses her length to stand up & land shots in guard & then quickly move to half guard. She is very heavy in half guard & doesn’t give opponents space to stand up. She likes to trap the closest arm with wrist control and her knee, and land ground & pound. She will look for arm triangles & if opponents get too crazy trying to explode she will just take mount. She was able to take the back & lock in a rear naked choke in her last match. Whitmire has 2 career submissions & has been submitted twice.
Polyana Viana
Age: 27
Height: 5’7
Weight: 115
Reach: 67”
Gym: Tata fight team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-3
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: +125
Polyana Viana needs to put up or shut up here. She has lost three consecutive fights and needs a win. On the feet, Viana likes to circle & use her reach. Her hands are not very good. She has a decent one-two & will come forward with straight punch combos. Her best weapon on the feet is her left kick. She has a nice, left round kick to the body. She will throw front kicks to the body also. She doesn’t really ever go high with her kicks. The last time Viana fought a southpaw in JJ Aldrich, she really struggled to defend the right hand. Viana holds her hands low, especially her lead hand, and has her chin right in the air. She has gotten hit with some big shots in her last two fights. Viana does have good heart & a strong chin. When she gets hit, she will try to walk opponents down & get it back. She did get dropped hard by a big right hand of Hannah Cifers. Viana has 4 KO/TKO’s mostly on the ground. She has never been finished by strikes.
Polyana Viana is a Jiu-Jitsu world champion. She is dangerous with submissions, mostly from top position. Viana isn’t the best wrestler. She looks to have some decent judo throws & trips in the clinch. She hit a double leg & circled to the back of Aldrich but was reversed. Viana was able to get a rear naked choke in her UFC debut, but her Jiu-Jitsu hasn’t been all that impressive to me. She has lost dominant positions & shown really nothing off her back. She had both Aldrich & Cifers in her full guard & didn’t do much in terms of attacking. She will land strikes from her guard & control posture but doesn’t have the best submission attacks. She will attack armbars and went for a leg lock vs Cifers. Viana does have a couple armbar wins on her record prior to joining the UFC. Viana has 6 submissions & has finished all 10 of her pro wins. Viana is 0-3 in decisions. Viana has questionable cardio & slows down in round 3. She got a takedown in her last match & was submitted from bottom. That was the first submission loss of her career.
It’s hard to trust either of these fighters but I do give the edge to Viana here. She should be the one throwing more volume on the feet and she has the better BJJ as well form what I have seen. She is 1-3 in the UFC though and Whitmire can keep this fight close everywhere and possibly get a submission herself. I would personally line Viana as the favorite though and I think she is more dangerous everywhere.
I like Viana here but both sides are playable with the +105 FDGTD line. I think Viana is more dangerous and more likely to finish on the feet or the mat, plus she is cheaper, so she is going to be close to a core play for me. Whitmire could also get an early sub and the betting line is moving her way so she is in play as well, I probably won’t go there myself though unless I have a Viana lineup that has $200 more left over, then I would just duplicate it with Whitmire. I wouldn’t want to trust either side in cash games, but I could see this being a fight that ends up on the $100k lineup.
Winner – Polyana Viana via 1st round Submission
Alex Caceres $7,400 vs Austin Springer – This is Caceres’ 3rd opponent for this card and Springer will be making his UFC debut on a couple days’ notice. He is 33-years-old, so he isn’t a young prospect the UFC has been eyeing and I don’t see many advantages for him here. He looks like he is the more powerful striker of the two and maybe he can knock Caceres out. Caceres is the better all-around striker though and he is the better grappler as well. Springer might be the better wrestler of the two, but Caceres could sub him off his back, so Springer should be looking for the kill on the feet. Caceres is not a guy I like to have my money on in general, but this should be his fight to lose and I expect him to be the better and faster guy everywhere in this spot. He should be the favorite here when the betting line is released but I’d be careful with anything over 2-1.
Caceres will likely be the chalk of the card as a $7.4k favorite, and that could burn people for sure here. I could see a 50-point win from him and that would burn half of the field if that is the case. The value is so hard to pass on though and he could finish this fight on the feet or the ground, so I will probably be in line with the field and have him in about half my lineups. He is a lock in cash too, assuming he is the betting favorite. Springer is a guy who could land something heavy early and break the slate, but aside from that I don’t see him scoring well so he is a fade for me.
(Pick is Alex Caceres via Unanimous Decision)
Zak Cummings $8,400 vs Alessio Di Chirico $7,800
Zak Cummings
Age: 36
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 75”
Gym: Springfield Fight Club
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 8-4
Fight Matrix: 35
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -105
Zak Cummings is making his return to the octagon after nearly a year away. He was supposed to fight in April of 2020, but that event got cancelled. Cummings suffered his first loss at 185 lbs his last time out against Omari Akhmedov. He was 2-0 prior to that in the division. I still feel as if Cummings may be on the way out. He is 36 years old. Cummings is a southpaw, pressure fighter on the feet. He has started to implement more stance switching. He likes to switch stances & throw outside leg kicks from both legs. He likes to feint a lot, draw out counters, and then go. He will throw some good jabs. He has a good check right hook and left uppercut. His straight-left hand is powerful, and probably his best shot on the feet. He is low output and can get stuck waiting for his opponents to throw. He is flat footed, and faster fighters can close the distance, land and get out. He will throw front kicks & round kicks to the body. He will throw head kicks as well. He has a strong chin and is extremely durable. His ability to take punishment is phenomenal. He has never been finished by strikes in his career. He has 6 KO/TKO’s.
Cummings is a very good grappler & a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He is strong in the clinch. He has nice knees to the body and legs. He does a good job of trapping the wrist, and then disengaging with a big combination. He will throw big hooks to the body. He has good singles and body lock takedowns. He isn’t very active in looking to get fights to the mat and has preferred to strike mostly. He gets most of his takedowns when opponents shoot in on him. He hasn’t even attempted a takedown in his last 6 UFC fights. He will lock in nasty front chokes. He had a great guillotine & used that to win his last win. In that fight he dropped Trevin Giles and jumped on the guillotine choke. Cummings has 12 submissions in his career & has been submitted just one time. 3 of his last 4 wins have come via submission.
Alessio Di Chirico
Age: 30
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: Aspera Training Center
From: Italy
UFC Record: 3-4
Fight Matrix: 98
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -115
Alessio Di Chirico has really improved his striking & is much more fluid than he was at the start of his career. He has a pretty snappy jab & good left hook. He is good at circling away from his opponent’s power hand and walking them into shots. He will try to walk opponents into left hooks & left body kicks. He will throw the occasional inside leg kick. He has a nice right hook, left straight combination. He will also throw nice elbows in close range. When he’s going forward, he likes to throw a lot of overhand rights. He really struggles to get inside when forced to be the aggressor. He has slow feet & is a bit stiff. He likes to grab the Muay Thai plum after getting inside with his punches & throwing clinch knees. He knocked out Oluwale Bambose with a clinch knee. Overall, I don’t think he has huge power. He doesn’t have the greatest defense. Fighters who can cut him off & make cage small can land big shots on him. He doesn’t have good enough speed to trade in the pocket with most guys. He was hit & hurt with some big shots against Julian Marquez. Di Chirico has 5 KO/TKO’s and has never been finished by strikes.
Di Chirico is improving as a grappler. In his last match he had a lot of success with dirty boxing & elbows. He has very good timing on his single leg and cuts the angle well. He will use the single to drive opponents to the fence, transition to a double & slam opponents. He has pretty good drive on his takedowns, but is top game is underwhelming. He doesn’t have great control or submission defense. He was put in a tight armbar in his last match. He also leaves his head in places where he can get guillotined. He isn’t great at cementing top position & opponents have been able to scramble back to their feet pretty easily. He seemed to tire in round 3 against Julian Marquez after not being able to hold him down. In his last fight with Muradov, he did look strong in round three. He is a tough, durable fighter.
This is probably going to be the slowest paced fight on the card. It is a very close fight, but it will probably look closer to a sparring match than it will the Fight of the Night and on the feet the slight advantage should go to Di Chirico. Cummings is more dangerous on the feet and the ground though, so he might be more likely to get the finish. I wouldn’t lay juice on either of these guys, so it is dog or pass for me. Cummings is the pick right now since he is the underdog but if Di Chirico moved to dog price then he would be the pick.
I don’t like this fight at all, but Di Chirico is the preferred play just for the value in his betting line, but more so for cash games. I don’t think either guys scores highly in a decision though and I doubt they would even get 10x. If you want to X this fight out of your lineups, I think that is fine and this is one of the top 2 fights to do that with.
Winner – Zak Cummings via Split Decision
Mallory Martin $8,900 vs Hannah Cifers $7,300
Mallory Martin
Age: 26
Height: 5’4
Weight: 115
Reach: 64”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -325
Mallory Martin is back & looking for a better result than she had last time. In her UFC debut Martin was dominated & ultimately submitted by Virna Jandiroba. Martin is mainly a wrestle/boxer with extreme toughness. She will constantly walk opponents down, keep heavy pressure on them, and close the distance with straight punch combinations to the body and head. When she gets inside she will spam hook combinations & is willing to go to war. She does have a nice, lead left hook. Her striking reminds me of Aspen Ladd’s and really her overall style as well. She is a terminator on the feet, but with a limited offensive skill set & bad defensive skill. She is very hittable when entering into range & doesn’t move her head at all. She was pinged up pretty badly on her DWCS fight. Martin has two KO/TKO’s both on the ground. She has never been finished.
Martin is a strong wrestler that has very nice body lock & double leg takedowns. She has excellent top pressure & heavy ground & pound. She has a viral video where she is battering a girl in top position while talking to her Khabib style. Martin tends to get cross body in half guard or side control & land big elbows & knees. She will work opponents over until they give their backs & submit them with rear nakeds. She had a terrible style matchup in her last fight against Jandiroba. Jandiroba was able to time takedowns on Martin as she came forward and dominated her on the mat. She was ultimately able to take her back in round two and finish the fight. Not many girls in the division are going to be able to do that to Martin though. She will be the superior grappler in this contest, and most of her fights moving forward. Martin has 1 submission but has finished half her wins on the mat. She has great cardio and breaks fighters with forward pressure.
Hannah Cifers
Age: 28
Height: 5’1
Weight: 115
Reach: 62”
Gym: Embrace Martial Arts
From: North Carolina
UFC Record: 2-4
Fight Matrix: 64
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: +265
Hannah Cifers is returning again still in search of that first win in 2020. Cifers has already fought three times this year and been extremely active. This will be her third fight in three months. Unfortunately for her she has been finished in all three of those fights. With a 2-4 UFC record I imagine her job is on the line here. Cifers is a striker. She is a smaller girl at 5’2 & her footwork is not very good. I think in this fight that could be an issue for her. Cifers does crack & has big power in her overhand right. Cifers is good at landing that overhand right as opponents enter range. Cifers will attack to the body and head with combinations. She will throw straight punch combos to the body and head and has a nice right hook to the body. Cifers does a good job of coming forward, throwing hooks & overhands while ducking & rolling. Cifers will throw occasional leg kicks. They don’t seem very powerful. She has a solid rear leg body kick. Cifers is very hittable herself & she throws with full power that causes her to overextend herself. Cifers struggled with the kicks of Mariya Agapova, especially to the body. Cifers is a very tough chick & has a lot of heart. Eventually in that fight Cifers got hit with a head kick, and stayed tough, but Agapova jumped on her back when she was discombobulated & subbed her. She has been finished by strikes just once vs Maycee Barber.
Cifers is not an active grappler in fights. She is very strong in the clinch & has short range power. She will throw short hooks & uppercuts & has pretty fast hands. Cifers isn’t a wrestler & has just one UFC takedown. In top position, she doesn’t do very much. She holds position & stays tight, but her ground & pound isn’t super dangerous & she isn’t a big submission threat on top. Cifers was taken down three times in her last match with Jodie Esquibel. Cifers struggled with the timing of Jodie’s double legs. Cifers is active off her back with armbars, triangles, & omaplatas. Cifers will look for leg locks. She was able to shut down Esquibel’s top game with her guard. Cifers is yet to earn a submission victory in her MMA career. She has been submitted once herself.
Cifers has shown to have a real big weakness off her back and Martin has mean ground and pound if she can get it there. This fight is close on the feet, but I do think Martin will be going for takedowns and her most likely will get the fight to the mat. If she does then could end the fight with elbows or a submission. If this fight goes all 3-rounds then I see it being closer than the line indicates, but I would still favor Martin and she is the pick here.
This will be Martin or pass for me. Martin does have a path to a high score and that is a finish on the ground. I want exposure to her for that reason and I might even be overweight. I think she is fine in cash games as well. If she wins a decision, I don’t see her scoring enough for the optimal so if you want to avoid her for that reason that is fine. I don’t see how Cifers scores high other than a knockout and that is not something I am willing to rely on. She will be a fade for me and even if she gets an upset in a decision win I don’t think it will burn us much if we don’t have her.
Winner – Mallory Martin via 2nd round Submission
Impa Kasanganay $8,500 vs Maki Pitolo $7,700
Impa Kasanganay
Age: 26
Height: 5’11
Weight: 185
Reach: 73”
Gym: Gym-O
From: North Carolina
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 149
Last Fought: 2.5 Weeks
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -123
No rest for the weary for Impa Kasanganay. He is back in the octagon for the second time in three weeks. Kasanganay earner his contract August 11th & that same night he already had a UFC fight scheduled. At 26 years old & 7-0 he enters the slight favorite. Impa is training out of Gym-O in Charlotte NC, a gym that deserves a little love for what they are doing this year. Scott Holtzman was unsuccessful in his bid to unseat Beneil Dariush, but John Salter, and Joe Solecki got dominant submission wins last weekend. Jamie Pickett who is competing on the contender series tonight also trains at Gym-O. Kasanganay has been getting it in with all those guys, and you can clearly see improvements in his game. Kasanganay isn’t flashy but he gets the job done. On the feet, he has a come forward, pressure style. Kasanganay has a good jab, and heavy low kicks. Kasanganay has good head movement and will slip and return with shots. Kasanganay will attack the body well. He is a sneaky good athlete. Kasanganay doesn’t pack much power. He has no KO/TKO’s.
Kasanganay is a strong fighter, good athlete & good grappler. Kasanganay has good timing on his double legs. When he gets fighters to the cage, he will control them in the clinch well & work knees. He has good takedowns in the clinch & doubles against the cage. When fighters try to stand up, he is good at hanging on the back & racking up the control time. Kasanganay has one rear naked choke in his career. His composure & cardio is amazing for someone so young in their career. He is 5-0 in decisions.
Maki Pitolo
Age: 29
Height: 5’10
Weight: 185
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: West Oahu MMA
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 130
Last Fought: 3 Weeks
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +103
Maki Pitolo is jumping back in making a quick turnaround himself. He fought 3 days before Kasanganay & is already hopping back in there. Pitolo wasn’t as lucky as Kasanganay, and his last fight was a first round submission loss. Pitolo has gone 1-2 in his first three UFC fights & needs to avoid losing here. He has a nasty jab and a great one-two. He has nice inside, outside leg kicks. He has an excellent jab to the body. He has an excellent left hook as well. He is good at touching opponents with jabs & short hooks, and then mixing in power shots. Sometimes fighters can land hooks or overhands to counter his jab, and he can get clipped a bit when he’s forced to move backwards. Pitolo will turn up & throw long combinations when he finds his range. He is excellent at using good shot selection. He will attack the body & has excellent uppercut, hook combos. He finished Justin Sumter a big 185 lber with brutal body shots. He will mix in spinning backfists, flying knees & elbows when he backs opponents near the cage. Pitolo’s ability to put combinations together with his hands should do him very well here. Pitolo can get hurt and doesn’t have an elite chin. He can be a little bit reckless at times & slows down in the later rounds. He looked very small vs Darren Stewart and was walked down for large portions of the fight. In the fights he’s been stunned, he’s been fighting much bigger men. Pitolo has been KO/TKO’d twice. Pitolo has 6 KO/TKO’s himself.
Pitolo isn’t a bad wrestler & will look to mix it up. In this fight I would look to just keep it on the feet, avoid wrestling and the clinch. Pitolo does use his longer combos to back opponents up where he will shoot singles & doubles. Pitolo has nice reactive shots at range also. In top position, Pitolo is almost exclusively a back taker. He won’t throw much ground & pound but looks to pass aggressively & eventually take the back. Pitolo has solid control on the back & will attack with rear naked chokes. He has two rear naked choke victories in his 3 submission wins. Pitolo can get shucked off the back & was submitted by Dakota Cochrane in a scramble with a guillotine. Pitolo has three submissions & has been submitted three times. He shot in on a bad takedown & was guillotined in his last fight. Pitolo’s cardio is not great.
Kasaganay just got signed off the Contender Series 2 weeks ago and Pitolo lost in round 1 the weekend before that. Maybe two weight cuts will have negative effects on them but on film I do think Kasaganay is the better all-around fighter everywhere. Pitolo throws harder shots and might be more likely to get the knockout, but I think Kasaganay is more likely to get takedowns, work in top control, and he could also out point Pitolo on the feet.
I am looking forward to this fight and I will get exposure to both sides. My preferred play is going to be Impa and I think he could score 10x or more in a decision win. I like his pace on the feet and I could see him landing multiple takedowns in this fight. I also think he could get a KO or submission and score well that way. Same thing goes with Pitolo, so he is in play as well, I just like what I have seen more in Impa and I think he gets the win. If I am making 10 lineups, I would think Impa makes 4 and Pitolo 2.
Winner – Impa Kasaganay via Unanimous Decision
Magomed Ankalaev $9,000 vs Ion Cutelaba $7,200
Magomed Ankalaev
Age: 28
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: Gorets FT
From: Russia
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: 21
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -335
Ankalaev is a very athletic fighter for LHW. He is a southpaw & explosive. He has a nice, long jab. He will jab to the body & has hard low kicks as well. He has very nice straight-left hands & left hooks. He likes to throw a round kick to the body to a straight-left, right hook combination. He has a nice jab, overhand right combo. He has a strong counter straight-right hand & counter left hook. He likes to mix in nice shovel hooks & short uppercuts into his hook combinations in the pocket. His rear leg head kick is very fast & he will follow with a straight-left hand down the middle. He is a power kicker, whether it’s to the legs, body or head, and when he lands, fighters will feel it. He landed a nasty counter left hook to a head kick combination and finished Marcin Prachnio. In his last match, he knocked Dalcha Champion out with a front kick. He is a bit flat footed, but he walks opponents down & has a presence in the cage. When he lets his shots go he is fast, and I feel hand & kick speed wise he is one of the fastest LHWs in the division. Ankalaev has power with 6 KO/TKO’s in 11 wins. He has good durability and has never been finished by strikes.
Ankalaev is a very strong grappler, and great wrestler. He is very strong in the clinch & will control opponents against the fence. He will do damage from that position, and land hard elbows & knees. He is great off the breaks, and will unload with punch combinations, sometimes finishing with knees to the head. He has strong double legs & can lift opponents & dump them on their head. He has good top control, and he has brutal ground & pound. He has put people to sleep with ground & pound punches. He will move to dominant positions such as mount & usually will finish the fight if he can get there. He was finished via triangle by Paul Craig with one second left in a fight he was dominating. He seemed to panic & may be a quick tapper throughout his whole career. He has good takedown defense, will get double underhooks, and snap opponents down and control on top. He can get taken down, but he stays calm and does a good job of sweeping and getting top position or getting back to his feet. Ankalaev isn’t a submission fighter with zero career submissions. He has good cardio fights, stays composed and should have the technical advantage everywhere here.
Ion Cutelaba
Age: 26
Height: 6’1
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: CSA Moldova
From: Moldova
UFC Record: 4-34
Fight Matrix: 40
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +275
Ion Cutelaba is a beast & extremely aggressive early on. He earned yet another first round finish in his match with Khalil Rountree, battering Rountree with elbows. He has 11 KO/TKO’s all in the first round. He is fast & explosive early. He has a nice one-two and will throw an overhand right from hell. When he gets inside, he will let his hooks go in combination with vicious power. He will throw wide hooks & overhands in close range while mixing in uppercuts. He will attack the body with straight punches & hooks. He will occasionally throw oblique kicks to the knee, low kicks and round house kicks to the body. In his last match, Ion was staying lighter on his feet & throwing more kicks. He threw some front kicks up the middle, question mark kicks and round kicks to the head. I would say it’s the most diverse his striking has ever been. He was also mixing in heavy knees at the end of combinations. In the past his opponents have started to get a beat on his spinning attacks & cleanly countered him. He can struggle to find his range at times & gets gun shy when countered. Against both Jared Cannonier & Misha Cirkunov, he was coming up short consistently with wild, looping shots & crazy spinning backfists. He did drop Glover Teixeira with a spinning backfist in his last match. It seemed the new style of movement & kicks quickly tired out Cutelaba & he gassed out in like 3 minutes. In round two Glover began to really walk him down heavily & landed big hooks in close range. He allowed Glover to back him up & control the center. The intimidation tactics could be useful here. He does have a good chin & can take a beating. He has 11 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes.
Ion showed good fight IQ in his match with Rountree. He took the fight to his world on the mat & took Rountree out. Rountree was stupidly trying to attack when Ion shot takedowns instead of defending, but when Ion got on top he was ruthless. He rained down elbows & shortly after the fight was over. He is a Greco Roman wrestler, and a Moldovan national champion in judo & sambo. He has solid double leg takedowns & is explosive with his entries. He is strong in the clinch & has solid body locks & throws. He has nasty knees to the body & elbows to the head in the clinch. He was able to finish Antigulov with clinch strikes. In his fight with Jared Cannonier, he landed several double leg takedowns. He dropped Luis Henrique Da Silva & knocked him out with vicious ground & pound. His takedown defense is much improved. Against Antigulov, he was taken down a few times, but continuously got back to his feet. He eventually battered Antigulov with elbows, knees & uppercuts in the clinch & finished the fight. He defended all 7 of Glover Teixeria’s takedown attempts. He got knocked off balance throwing a strike, and off his back he was dealt with quickly. Glover was able to easily take the back & get the submission. Cutelaba has been finished twice, both by submission. Cutelaba has just two career submissions of his own & isn’t really a threat with Jiu-Jitsu.
This is a rematch from one of the earliest stoppages I have ever seen. We didn’t get to see much from that fight but Ankalaev did look like the much better striker and that is what we thought going in. He has better striking, and defense and he could get a knockout any round. Cutelaba has a lot of power though and he can keep this fight close on the feet just on volume alone. He also can land takedowns to steal close rounds or spend some time in top control to win a round. This line looks too wide, so it is dog or pass on the betting line, but I am changing my pick to Ankalaev where I picked Cutelaba outright last time.
Name wise, this is a top 3 fight on the card and people have been waiting for this one for a while. I think that makes this a popular pick on both sides and that makes me like it less than I would on a different card. Both guys have 100+ upside and are fine plays, especially in GPP. I wouldn’t talk you off being overweight on either or both sides of this fight. I could just see it playing out much slower than we saw in that first minute last time and if this goes to a decision I think Ion is the only one that can make the optimal with a decision win. I like both guys, but I don’t know how much of this fight I will have because I think the field will be all over it and that makes me want to have it in less than half my lineups.
Winner – Magomed Ankalaev via 3rd round (T)KO
Ricardo Lamas $9,200 vs Bill Algeo $7,000
Ricardo Lamas
Age: 38
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 71”
Gym: MMA Masters
From: Illinois
UFC Record: 10-6
Fight Matrix: 19
Last Fought: 1 Year 2 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -290
Ricardo Lamas is making his return after over a year away from the cage. Lamas wants to erase the memory of his last fight where he was knocked out in the first round by Calvin Kattar. The 38-year-old Lamas has lost three of four fights & is fighting for his career here as well most likely. Lamas was originally scheduled to fight Ryan Hall, but with Hall getting injured Lamas is now fighting UFC newcomer Bill Algeo. Lamas is a very well-rounded fighter with a ton high-level experience. He has good kick boxing skills, but I think his kicks are more effective than his punches. Lamas has a nice jab and will use the jab to put together his punching combinations. He has a good one-two and a nice left hook. Lamas has really nice kicks, he will attack early and often with leg kicks and has good power on them. He likes to throw a left hook to the body to set up his low kicks. He has very nice and tricky head kicks. He throws them with both legs, and he can throw them with power or flick them up very quickly and surprise fighters. He does a good job of sneaking in a head kick mid combination which is how he finished Matt Grice. He is a good point fighter with his style and does a good job of landing volume and winning decisions. He isn’t a big KO threat, but he has 5 KO/TKO’s and when he hurts his opponents, he is a solid finisher. He has a questionable chin and has been finished 4 times via strikes.
Lamas is a former D-3 All American wrestler, and if his striking isn’t working he will attack relentlessly with takedown attempts. He prefers to get the takedowns against the cage rather than try to shoot in open space. Lamas has a decent double leg, but a very good single. He will attack with body locks, try to take the back and trip fighters to the ground. He has strong ground & pound, very effective control and great elbows. He is dangerous with his Jiu-Jitsu, especially chokes. He has a nasty guillotine and will dive on submissions. His takedown defense is solid, but he was grinded out by Mirsad Bektic. He was able to out grapple an elite grinder in his last match against Darren Elkins and is still a high level grappler. He is very opportunistic with his takedowns, and he has 5 submissions in his career. He has never been submitted himself. He has strong cardio and can work for all three rounds.
Bill Algeo
Age: 31
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: Algeo MMA & Kickboxing
From: Pennsylvania
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 118
Last Fought: 3 Weeks
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +245
Bill Algeo is getting the chance of a lifetime. Not only is he getting a short notice UFC fight, but the fight is against a well-known legend of the game. Algeo is at a huge experience disadvantage here, he has 17 pro fights while Lamas has 16 fights just in the UFC. Algeo is younger at 31-year-old here though and will try to use that to his advantage. Algeo is mobile, light on his feet, and long & tall for the division. He is going to have around a three-inch height & reach advantage over Lamas. He utilizes a sideways stance, a lot of fakes, feints, and herky jerky movements. He will switch stances & uses a lot of kicks. He has nice low kicks. He will try to use a jab at times but doesn’t throw it much. His boxing is not very good, but he will try to land pull counter, straight punches. He will trade some hooks inside. Algeo is much more dangerous with his legs. He has nice knees, front knees up the middle to the head & body. He will mix in some flying knees. He has a really nice fast round kick to the head. Algeo will look for sidekicks to the body and head. He has nice spinning kicks. Algeo likes to start combinations with high kicks & ends combinations with spinning kicks. He is creative & not a bad striker. Algeo doesn’t really hit very hard unless he can just land a flush kick or knee to the jaw. His hands don’t pack much power. Algeo has three knockouts in his career. Defensively, Algeo is not good at all. He holds his hands totally down, and his chin is right in the air. When fighters throw punches against him, he likes to lean back to defend them instead of moving his feet. Fighters who can put combinations together can land & land often on Algeo. In Algeo’s fight with Brendan Loughnane on the contender series he was out struck rather easily. Algeo is really tough & has never been finished by strikes.
Bill Algeo is a solid grappler. He will mix it up & look for takedowns. Algeo has a solid single leg takedown. Against the cage, he will control in the clinch & chain wrestle. Algeo really likes the head & arm takedown. He will land right in that kesa gatame position & go to work. It is a dangerous takedown because people can take his back, but I’ve seen Algeo hit it many times. On top, Algeo has fairly good control, and is also good at getting rear naked chokes. He has six career submissions, five of which are rear nakeds. Algeo has been submitted twice, but early in his career. Algeo has not been finished since 2014. Algeo’s cardio is not bad, but not great. He slows down a bit but can push through. This is a huge step up for him & we will see if he can step up to the plate.
Algeo is making his UFC debut here on short notice. Algeo is going to need this fight to stay standing to have a chance but he could win a striking fight here and maybe even get a knockout. Lamas is 38 years old now and his biggest advantage here will be his wrestling. He might not have 3 rounds of wrestling cardio at his age during a pandemic though so that would be a worry when laying juice on him. He could finish the fight on the feet as well, but the striking is much closer to 50/50 here and it should be the takedowns from Lamas that could put the stamp on them. At this price, I would rather take a shot on the underdog though so Algeo by decision or TKO is the pick.
Both sides of this fight are in play, but Lamas is likely the one with 100+ upside here. He has more takedown upside and probably has more knockout power as well. Plus, we don’t know what kind of shape Algeo will be in taking this fight on short notice. I don’t know which my preferred play is though because I could see Lamas being more owned than I would want to trust for a 38 year old featherweight. Algeo I do think is live for a win here and it could be a knockout or decision. As cheap as he is I am willing to take some shots. This if probably a fight I would look to get about 15-20% of both sides if MMEing.
Winner – Bill Algeo via Split Decision
Alexa Grasso $9,100 vs Ji Yeon Kim $7,100
Alexa Grasso
Age: 27
Height: 5’5
Weight: 115
Reach: 66”
Gym: Lobo Gym MMA
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 3-3
Fight Matrix: 18
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -320
Alexa Grasso is making her debut in the UFC at FLW after a disappointing run at 115 lbs. Grasso entered the UFC undefeated, but is 3-3 in the UFC. She had a very bad weight miss in her match with Claudia Gadelha and decided to move to 125. Grasso is a good striker. She is fairly fast, likes to go forward and walk opponents down. She will throw inside, outside leg kicks. She has an alright jab, and a good straight-right hand. She has a nice one-two. She will throw a nice straight-left hand lead, and straight-left, overhand right, right hook combination. She is at her best when she can back opponents up against the cage & unload with combinations. She has very fast hand speed & will unload with left & right straights & hooks mixed in with uppercuts. Her straight-right hand has power, and that’s the shot she usually hurts opponents with. She will mix nice front & round kicks to the body in between the combinations. She has a solid round kick to the head. When she does let go like that, she tends to forget about defense & leave her chin right up in the air. While Grasso has solid foot speed when she strikes, she isn’t in & out, she is flat footed & there to be countered. Fighters like Felice Herrig & Randa Markos were able to counter her single shots with combinations and make her fight moving backwards where her offense is limited. Grasso can be low volume at times & let her opponents dictate the pace of the fight. Her last fight was probably the best striking performance of her career as she was able to go first & dominate. She can also get her kicks caught & be taken down that way. Grasso doesn’t have the biggest power, but she has some pop with 4 KO/TKO’s. She has never been finished by strikes.
I actually think Grasso is a better grappler than striker. She doesn’t necessarily have the wrestling to get the fight to the ground, but she has great takedown defense & scrambling ability. She has a strong underhook game in the clinch & will control opponents in that position while landing knees and elbows over the top. Grasso will go for singles occasionally against the cage. She will use her sprawl to take the back. Grasso also will use a front choke, and even flying guillotines to counter the takedowns. Grasso was able to deny most of the takedown attempts from Markos, and even used the underhook & heavy hips to reverse to top position. The only way Markos was able to take Grasso down was through catching her kicks. Grasso has an active guard and will throw up armbars & triangles. She is hard to hold down & will work back up to her feet. She likes to belly down & transition into a single leg or body lock. It does expose her back & she was submitted via rear naked choke trying to stand up vs Suarez. Markos was able to get to dominant positions and landed some good G&P from mount. In her last fight, she was submitted very quickly vs the best grappler in the division in Tatiana Suarez. She was actually able to deny the initial takedown attempt, and reversed position against the cage. She stood up a couple times from bottom, but overall, she was rag dolled & submitted fairly quickly. When she takes top position, she is very aggressive looking for G&P & advancing position. Due to that she doesn’t have the greatest top control & fighters are able to scramble back to her feet. She isn’t a submission threat with 0 submissions & has just been submitted one time in her career. Grasso has great cardio & usually has a strong third round.
Ji Yeon Kim
Age: 30
Height: 5’7
Weight: 115
Reach: 72”
Gym: MOB Training Center
From: South Korea
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 41
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +260
Ji Yeon Kim is a veteran now having five UFC fights. She has done well going 3-2, and 3-1 in the FLW division. Ji Yeon Kim is a big fighter for the weight class with a long reach. She has a 6” reach advantage in this fight. Kim is almost solely a boxer. Her footwork especially early in fights can be lacking. She is a bit plodding & flat footed. She does have a nice jab & straight-right hand. Kim will throw a one-two or left hook, straight-right combination. She loves the left hook, straight or overhand right combination throwing it very often. She will throw a large volume of punches but can come up short at times & get countered. Kim will walk into range without moving her head at all at times. In certain fights, Kim has turned up her movement volume & forward pressure, particularly against Justine Kish in round 3. She will use a lot of feints, false starts, and body movement to get into range & throw a large volume of punches. She will come over the top with hooks, overhand combinations, and straight punches down the middle. Kim can catch opponents at the end of her punches when they think they’re out of range & snap their heads back. Kim is definitely going to be the superior puncher in this fight. She has to be more aggressive with her forward pressure & let her hands go. If she puts combinations together & backs Grasso to the cage, she should have a huge advantage. She may even be able to get a knockout. Kim has the skills to make this an easy fight, she just has to go out there & do it. Kim doesn’t have much power & has no finishes with strikes in her career. She has also never been finished by strikes & has a tough chin. She is coming off a loss to a very high-level striker in Antonina Shevchenko where she went to a decision.
Kim is not a grappler & this fight could hit the mat. If anyone is to shoot for takedowns or go for the clinch I see it being Grasso. Kim has zero UFC takedowns. She was taken down two times in her last match by Shevchenko, and I could see Grasso going for some takedowns. Kim does have 3 submissions pre-UFC. She has never been submitted. Kim is also definitely going to have the cardio advantage in this matchup.
This should be a 3-round striking match and probably a higher paced one which is always fun. This is a good matchup for Grasso though and she is expected to have a clear edge in the striking. She could end up getting a TKO, but she isn’t much of a finisher, so the pick will be 30-27 Grasso.
I am probably going to X this fight out of my lineups this week. I don’t see me making more than 20 lineups and with that few chances I don’t want to use this fight at all. I like Grasso to win but I think it goes the distance and it will be hard for her to get 10x her $9.1k price tag. I think she is a fine cash game play, but I won’t be playing much if any cash this week and I have no interest in Kim aside from cash games either.
Winner – Alexa Grasso via Unanimous Decision
Neil Magny $8,600 vs Robbie Lawler $7,600
Neil Magny
Age: 33
Height: 6’3
Weight: 170
Reach: 80”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Illinois
UFC Record: 16-6
Fight Matrix: 10
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -235
Neil Magny is a very technical fighter standing & on the mat but is more of a point fighter. He lacks physicality, and just isn’t a very dangerous fighter. Magny is a long guy and utilizes it well. He will switch stances; fake & feint well & is pretty technical. He is at his best when he can go forward & throw volume. He has a very nice jab and will double and triple up on it. He will throw some one-twos or left hook, overhand right combos. He relies heavily on straight shots and will mix it up to the body and head. Magny has excellent front kicks to the body. Magny has always struggled badly with low kicks. He is heavy on his lead leg, and his legs can’t take much damage. He will get swept off his feet with kicks. Magny also doesn’t have the greatest movement when he gets backed up. He will look to shell up & return or slip and rip. In his last fight, he was getting rocked badly with jabs & took a ton of damage. Magny is a super tough guy. He would try to start strong in every round even after being hurt, but just was out matched. Neil was knocked out brutally in that last fight after sustaining three rounds of damage & his leg getting an absolute battering. Magny has been KO/TKO’d three times in his career.
Magny is a very solid grappler. The clinch is arguably the most dangerous aspect of his game. He has nice elbows & knees. He can land knees easier due to his height. In Magny’s last win he knocked out Craig White with a knee to the head in the clinch followed by G&P. Magny is good at getting the body lock or tight waist & using his leverage to take the back. He has solid takedowns in the clinch. On top, Magny is solid. He has nice passing ability & good control when he can move to mount or the back. Magny is pretty hard to take down. He has 60% takedown defense throughout his UFC career. Most people who have been able to get him down were high-level grapplers. Off his back, Magny will attack with triangles, but can be held down at times. He was submitted pretty easily by RDA off his back. Magny has been submitted four times in his career. When Magny loses he usually gets finished. He has been finished in six of his seven losses. Magny has only three submissions himself & one in the UFC. You never have to worry if Magny is going to come in shape. He has some of the best cardio in the UFC.
Robbie Lawler
Age: 38
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: Sanford MMA
From: Florida
UFC Record: 13-8
Fight Matrix: 32
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: +195
Robbie Lawler is a ruthless knockout artist with huge power. He has fought the best of the best for years and won’t be intimidated by Magny. Lawler has historically been extremely hard to takedown. Lawler is a southpaw striker with very good movement. He will constantly be moving his body, feinting and slipping to get inside & box. He is very good once he gets inside at slipping and rolling with shots, and then returning with counters. He has a nice jab & will throw hard one-twos. He will throw nasty right hook, straight-left hand combinations. He will throw an overhand left less often & is good at slipping a shot and returning with a short-left hook. He has a very strong jab, right hook combination & lead right hook in general. He will throw a nice right uppercut, straight-left combination. He loves to get inside, hand fight, stand right in front of opponents and just go toe to toe. He will not back off when an opponent throws back hard shots like most fighters & will force opponents to trade. He will attack the body with jabs & hooks occasionally. His straight-left hand is superb, and he really busts the faces of opponents up with it. Lawler isn’t a super active kicker, but he has very hard leg & body kicks. Lawler obviously gets hit because of his come forward style, and he struggles with good kickers. He can get hit with hard leg & body kicks as he slips with his feet planted, so he eats the full brunt of it. Lawler’s chin is excellent, and when that goes I feel he will be much less effective. He has only been finished by Nick Diaz & Tyron Woodley by KO/TKO in his 41-fight career. There is no secret what Lawler wants to do here, and that’s knock him out. He has 20 career knockouts in 28 wins.
Lawler has notoriously been a very hard fighter to take down. He isn’t worried whatsoever about taking the fight to the ground himself. Even when he gets hurt, he prefers to stand & trade until one man drops. He did get a slam takedown in his last match & almost took out Askren with ground & pound. He looked super explosive & the best he had in years physically. Lawler is very good in the clinch. He gets good head positioning & will throw hard uppercuts & hooks. Lawler is incredibly explosive & still going to be a much superior athlete to Magny. He has a dynamic sprawl and great overall takedown defense. He is great at getting his hips away & snapping opponents down to the mat. He has heavy hips & a strong base making it very hard to take him down with doubles. Lawler makes opponents pay for takedown attempts with well-timed uppercuts, hard knees and big shots to the head. He will swarm opponents after they are unsuccessful on a takedown attempt and doesn’t let them rest. Hendricks was able to take him down a couple times against the fence, but Lawler did good damage from those positions also. He will throw nice uppercuts & punches from that position. He has a good butterfly hook and decent get-ups. I think he will be able to get-up consistently if taken down by Magny. Lawler will take time off & gives opponents chances to win rounds by resting. He is a fighter who blitzes for the finish & then needs to recover. He has to be ready to deal with the pace of a fighter like Magny. Lawler has been submitted 5 times in his career, but his submission defense is not bad. Lawler has never attempted a submission in his entire UFC/Strikeforce 31 fight career. He does have one career submission all the way back in 2005.
Magny has won 4 of his last 5 fights and Lawler has lost 4 of his last 5. It seems Magny is in his prime right now and Lawler is towards the end of his career. Magny is also a guy that we don’t have to worry about cardio wise, and that has been a big issue for a lot of fighters during this pandemic. Lawler is the better boxer and more dangerous striker of the two. Magny is going to need to use his length, stay on the outside and pick his shots, or even look for takedowns where he should have the edge on the ground. This line is too high for my liking so it’s hard to pick Magny here, but he is the rightful favorite. Lawler can win this fight on the feet though and he has the takedown defense to keep it there. Lawler should have the advantage early, and then the longer the fight goes, it’s more likely to shift to Magny. At this line I’d say it is dog or pass though and I will take the former champ to get his hand raised by knockout or a close decision.
This is the 2nd biggest named fight on the card and I expect ownership to come with that. I don’t love this fight for DK for that reason, but my preferred play is Lawler. I think it is going to be tough for Lawler to score well here and I think he could be popular, so I am not against fading the fight as a whole, I just have to get some Lawler since I am picking him to win and think he can get a KO. Magny would be a guy I fade with 10 or less lineups but if I am going more than 10 then he probably starts making a small percentage of lineups, I just don’t see 100+ coming from him here. I will probably have this fight in 30% or less of my lineups this week and I expect the field to be closer to 50% or more.
Winner – Robbie Lawler via 1st round (T)KO
Aleksandar Rakic $8,700 vs Anthony Smith $7,500
Aleksandar Rakic
Age: 28
Height: 6’4
Weight: 206
Reach: 78”
Gym: Gym 23
From: Austria
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: 20
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -275
Aleksandar Rakic is entering the cage for the first time after a loss since his UFC debut. He lost a contested, split decision in his last fight which many people believe he won. Aleksandar Rakic is a very big, mobile, & athletic LHW. He uses a lot of feints, stance switching & likes to be the aggressor. He is light on his feet with good distance control. He has excellent footwork. He is great at circling away from an opponent’s power and circling his back away from the cage. He will use his jabs and left hooks to angle back to the center. He has a nice jab & heavy leg kicks. He will throw oblique kicks to the knees as well. He has a solid lead left hook and a very nice straight-right hand. He will mix in overhand rights. He doesn’t throw much in combination and uses a lot of one shot attacks. He is very good at freezing opponents with feints, landing a shot, and getting out. He has a very nice rear uppercut. He dropped Devin Clark with a backfist, and then finished him with G&P. In his last match, he landed an absolutely brutal head kick which stiffened Jimi Manuwa up. Rakic is super-fast & explosive. He is going to be a problem as he improves, but this is a big step up. Rakic does hold his hands low and is hittable. He relies a lot on movement & sliding out of the way of shots but gets caught at times. He stands tall & can leave his chin in the air when he exits. He was dropped in his last match against Clark trying to circle off the cage. He is a cardio machine though & recovers extremely quickly. He got his leg chewed up by Volkan in his last fight & needs to check kicks. I feel he has a solid chin, but you do not want to get hit clean vs Smith like he was vs Clark. Rakic hits hard himself & has 9 career KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished by strikes.
Rakic is extremely athletic, and his grappling has improved rapidly. In his UFC debut against Francimar Barroso, he was taken down multiple times, and had questionable takedown defense. Now he has very nice takedown defense and will use it to take top position himself. He will quickly dig double underhooks & take his opponent down. Against Justin Ledet, he also got him to the mat by sweeping the leg with leg kicks. He has a solid takedown game. He has good body lock takedowns and ok double legs. He is very good at continuing to fight in the transitionary periods in between striking & grappling situation. He will be denied on a takedown attempt but will use that to create an opening for a punch or kick. In the fight with Ledet he showed a strong top game. He was able to easily control position, posture up, & land nice hammerfists & elbows. He will also move to half guard & land heavy shots. He doesn’t look to move to mount or side control. He prefers to just keep position, and land ground & pound. If he gets top position on Smith, I feel Rakic could possibly do damage.
Anthony Smith
Age: 32
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Factory X
From: Nebraska
UFC Record: 8-4
Fight Matrix: 13
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +235
Anthony Smith is making a quick return after his devastating loss to Glover Teixeira. That was potentially a life changing beat down, so we will see how he comes in. Anthony Smith is a very aggressive Muay Thai striker, and he has to let it go once again here. Smith has a nice jab & will throw a nice jab, left hook combination. He will throw a nice slip left uppercut & will throw the left hook to the body as well. His lead left hook is something he tends to use a lot. He has good one-twos & his straight-right hand is powerful. He will throw it early & often. He is good at throwing the straight-right hand, expecting the counter, avoiding it & landing a counter left hook or second straight-right. Smith isn’t the fastest with his hand speed & can be countered. He is definitely a better kicker than puncher. Smith throws chopping low kicks, which he needs to use here. Smith has hard body kicks. He likes to throw a left hook, body kick combination. He will also throw straight-left, body kick combo. He likes to throw front kicks & front knees to the body. Smith does a good job of throwing head kicks after combinations. He will get opponents moving backwards with punching combos & finish with a head kick they don’t see coming. Smith will also throw nice lead elbows, and he throws with bad intentions. Everything he throws he’s trying to do damage & there are not many set up shots in Smith’s game. Smith doesn’t have great defense standing. Like I said, he doesn’t throw many set-up shots, and doesn’t feint much either. Fighters can get his timing eventually and catch him as he closes the distance. He can be hit with hard low kicks and doesn’t check kicks. He also will shell up & take shots on his guard rather than moving his feet. He is a tough guy & proved his durability taking some big shots from Volkan Oezdemir & Glover Teixeira. He has been KO/TKO’d 9 times, but only once since 2011. He had a majority of those TKO losses at the beginning of his career and in his last 29 fights he’s been KO/TKO’d twice. Smith is a killer himself with nasty power. He has 17 KO/TKO’s & has finished all his wins at LHW.
Anthony Smith is good in the clinch & dangerous. He has nasty knees to the legs, body & head, and hard elbows. He was able to finish Rashad Evans with a hard shot in the clinch. Smith isn’t much of an offensive wrestler but will try to time double legs or body locks if he’s being blitzed. He was able to get on top of Volkanovski Oezdemir & finish the fight. He stands tall & has a flat-footed style. Fighters have easily been able to get in on his legs and wrestle him to the mat. He was taken down more than once by Volkan Oezdemir, who is a kick boxer. He will get a nice underhook in the clinch, frame and attack with big knees and elbows if he can deny the attempt. He has improved a bit with his stance & doesn’t stand quite as tall, but Rakic could possibly have success taking him down. In his match vs Jones, he did a good job of denying the takedown attempts. Smith isn’t bad off his back & actually has some pretty slick BJJ. He has very nice triangles & throws them up very quickly. He will attack with armbars from guard as well. He has good half guard sweeps & will rain down big G&P from top position. Smith did get his guard passed & was dominated a bit on the ground by Volkan Oezdemir He was able to get a nice rear naked choke submission in his last victory. Smith has 13 submissions in his career. He has been submitted 5 times himself, but not in 6 years.
Rakic is the more dangerous striker who throws strikes at a higher pace and is probably the better wrestler as well. Smith is the better grappler of the two though, so his shot here is likely a submission. He could get takedowns and work for a sub or even possibly get a sub from the bottom. If he doesn’t get a submission, then Rakic should pick him apart on the feet and likely land something heavy over the course of 15-minutes to end the fight. As long as Rakic is in shape during this pandemic then this should be a fight he wins, and he might be a top 3 guy in the division.
I do like Rakic as my preferred play and if this was 5-rounds he would be a core play for me. He will still be close to a core play, but I will be spreading my exposure around with the favorites and he might make around half my lineups or so. Smith is playable as well if you are picking him to win but with this being the main event, and people maybe not even realizing it is not 5-rounds, I think this fight will be over owned as a whole and that makes me want to go underweight on the Smith side since I am high on Rakic here. I would not stack this fight in cash and it would be Rakic or pass for me. He is going to be a top 3 play for me this weekend, but I won’t force him into a certain number of lineups to make him a core play and with 10 or less lineups I would personally fade Smith.
Winner – Aleksandar Rakic via 2nd round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown & be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building & I hope if I don’t takedown a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend & enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks & predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice & fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: BigMarleyMMA.com
- Bets are on a 1-5u scale with 1u = $100.
- I am 136-109 for +246.69u (+$24,669) since May 19, 2018 for all premium bets.
