BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC Vegas 7 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
This weekend, we have a 11-fight card at the UFC Apex in Vegas that will have no fans in attendance due to the pandemic. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games & look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience & you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player & it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups & 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights & hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Timur Valiev $9,100 vs Mark Striegl $7,100
Timur Valiev
Age: 30
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Nick Catone’s MMA
From: Russia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 27
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -525
Timur Valiev was supposed to be making his UFC debut a couple weeks ago. Unfortunately, he couldn’t secure a visa to get into the states. I see from his social media he is in Las Vegas already so this one should be good to go. Valiev will put his six-fight win streak on the line here. Valiev is a pretty good striker. He is very athletic and light on his feet with great blitz attacks. He likes to throw a lot of kicks on the outside, inside, outside, low kicks, round kicks to the body & head. Valiev has very fast, straight punch combos. He likes to go to the body with the straight and then go upstairs with hooks. Valiev slips & rips very well. He will dig to the body with hooks and catch nice check left hooks to the head. He can pull counter with straights. He throws a lot of nice spins and flying knees. Valiev does play with his hands down. That has caused him issues in the past. In the pocket, he is hittable & if fighter meet him in the middle with a shot they can hurt him. I have seen him dropped in fights before. Valiev has yet to be finished though. Valiev has six KO/TKO’s.
Timur Valiev is a high-level Dagestani wrestler. He has great level changes. He sets them up with the hands & feints. He will run through double legs very well. He has great takedowns in the clinch using trips & throws. When he gets on top, Valiev likes to take the back and has good control. He is good at getting the front head lock position draining his opponent’s cardio and breaking them. Valiev only has two submissions & is more a control fighter. I have seen Valiev taken down, but his takedown & scrambling ability is elite. Valiev has a very fun style to watch. He’s aggressive, has great cardio & is a flashy guy. He should be a great addition to the division.
Mark Striegl
Age: 32
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: N/A
Gym: F.I.S.T. Gym
From: Philippines
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: 1NC
Betting Odds: +415
Mark Striegl will be making his UFC debut with a shiny record of 18-2. His competition level has been a bit questionable, but he has beaten some decent names such as Kai Kara-France. This will be the first fight for Striegl in the United States since his UFC debut. It’s a weird time for Striegl to get signed as well. He hasn’t fought since April of 2019, and that fight ended in a no contest due to a low blow. Mark Striegl is a grappler & combat sambo champion. Striegl won the gold medal in combat sambo at the 2019 Southeast Asian Games. His striking is not good. Striegl is super low volume, doesn’t have great defense, and just waits for an opportunity to shoot. He does throw some nice, low kicks, some good one-twos. He throws some nice elbows. Striegl is top heavy & muscular, and stiff as a striker. He can be countered & enters in very awkwardly at times. Striegl isn’t looking to finish opponents on the feet & has no finishes by strikes.
Mark Striegl is a beast of a grappler. He has excellent timing on his level changes, and good takedowns in the clinch. On top, Striegl is an aggressive passer and good submission artist. He likes side control. Striegl will get the crucifix position and will look for arm locks. He has a good scarf hold armbar. Striegl has a strong mount, and when he gets the back he is dangerous. He has good rear naked chokes. Striegl will jump on guillotines. He has fourteen submissions in eighteen wins. Striegl has been submitted twice in his career. He does put himself in guillotines. Striegl has very good submission defense overall though. In his last loss he was exhausted and eventually submitted by rear naked choke. The loss was to Reece McLaren who is a brown belt world champion. His cardio is very questionable.
Valiev does look like he would be the better fighter everywhere, but this 5-1 line is too wide for his UFC debut. Striegl looks decent on the ground but most of his wins have come in round 1 against much lower level competition. This would be a dog or pass pick on the ML, but it is hard to see how be beats Valiev other than a submission, so maybe get some extra value with the submission prop. Valiev is the pick though and this could be fun if it hits the mat.
I like both sides of this fight for DraftKings but more so the Valiev side. I like him in all formats and I think he could score well here. I just don’t know how this fight plays out and I don’t see him going for many takedowns, so maybe he needs a KO at his price. I won’t have a lot of him, but I would guess he makes about 25% of my lineups and he is a good pivot away from Agapova. Striegl is live in this fight though I just think it needs to come from a submission for it to happen. The longer this fight goes the more it will favor Valiev but if Striegl wins he scores high and probably breaks the slate at $7.1k. I need some exposure there and I would think I get at least 15% of Striegl in my GPP lineups.
UPDATE – Trevin Jones is stepping in for Striegl on two days’ notice. He looks like a decent wrestler with power in his hands. This is a tough spot for him, so I can’t pick him, but he was decent enough for me to not full fade and I will get some exposure. I probably like Valiev a bit more now.
Winner – Timur Valiev via Unanimous Decision
Carlton Minus $8,500 vs Matthew Semelsberger $7,700
Carlton Minus
Age: 27
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 74.5”
Gym: Legacy Jiu-Jitsu
From: Florida
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 288
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -125
Carlton Minus is making his UFC debut after replacing an injured Phil Rowe. Minus is 10-1 with his one career loss coming at the hands of Rick Story. All of Minus’s wins are in Alaska FC. He is undefeated at 10-0 in that organization. His one loss was in the PFL. Minus is a solid boxer. He has a good jab. He likes to throw the double jab, two or one-two. He will throw some jab, hooks & jab, uppercuts. Minus has a decision fighting style. He will stick with the jab, two, use lateral movement, keep the distance and cruise to wins. Minus struggles with forward pressure. He is one dimensional also. When fighters can counter his jab or back him up, he struggles. Story was able to pressure him, get inside, land shots and take him down easily. Minus does have some finishes against really low-level guys. He has six KO/TKO’s in his career.
Carlton Minus’s grappling isn’t the best. When he gets backed up to the fence & fighters can get in on his legs his takedown defense doesn’t look good. Minus showed good get-ups against low-level guys. In his matchup with Story, Minus was taken down with ease & absolutely dominated on the mat. Story was able to control him, move to dominant positions & ultimately submitted him. Minus did a good job in the first round to survive a super deep arm triangle. Minus gave his back whenever he tried to stand up & was ultimately submitted with a rear naked choke. Minus has one rear naked choke himself. His cardio is good, but I’m not sure he’s UFC level.
Matthew Semelsberger
Age: 27
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: N/A
Gym: Clinch Academy
From: Maryland
UFC Record:0-0
Fight Matrix: 402
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +105
Matthew Semelsberger is a dangerous 6-2 prospect making his debut here. He is coming off three consecutive victories. Semelsberger is a badass Muay Thai fighter. He is super explosive & has huge short-range power. He has heavy low kicks. He has nice, long, straight punches, but he is much bettas as a counter striker. When he goes first he can be wild. Semelsberger has some incredible speed, and nasty pull counter straights. Inside in the clinch he throws heavy knees and devastating elbows. Semelsberger is super dangerous when he can get fighters against the fence. He will flurry with big hooks, hard knees, jump knees, and elbows. His last fight he landed a one-shot KO with an elbow. He is wild and open, and I feel as the rounds go on his explosiveness goes down. Early on he is super dangerous though. He has four career knockouts in his six wins. Semelsberger has been finished by strikes one time.
Matthew Semelsberger’s grappling looks very average. He doesn’t have great wrestling & isn’t very good off his back. He does look like he’s getting better with get-ups & scrambles. He will attack some submissions off his back but taking him down is the way to beat him. He does have decent leg locks. In his last fight, he was able to stuff all his opponent’s takedowns. Semelsberger has one submission & has been submitted once.
It’s hard to tell what we will get from these debut fighters but Minus has more experience against better guys. Minus also looks like the better point fighter and Semelsberger looks like the more dangerous striker and the bigger guy. Neither guy is someone we should trust with too much money, but this is a decent spot for the underdog, so he is the pick.
Semelsberger is my preferred play here because I think he has the ceiling with the knockout. Minus could be a fine pick as well because he isn’t too expensive, but I don’t see him breaking the slate, so I won’t get a much of him. I won’t fade him, but I won’t have more than 15-20%. Semelsberger is an underdog I like though and if he does get the KO then he could break the slate. I want to be overweight on him this week and I think he is playable in all formats. He won’t be a core play or anything, but he is one of my favorite underdogs to target.
Winner – Matthew Semelsberger via 1st round (T)KO
Ike Villanueva $8,200 vs Jordan Wright $7,900
Wright is taking this fight on short notice, but he is undefeated at 10-0 making his UFC debut. Ike is the better boxer of the two and could have success early and possibly get the KO. Wright can hang on the feet though with kicks being the best part of his striking, but his ground game is where he should have the most success here. Hard to tell what sort of shape he will be in, but he has the better overall MMA game and that is why he is the pick here.
I hate this fight, but I think we have to target both sides of it with the -285 FDGTD line. Either guy could finish in round 1 so I will get exposure to both guys and if you have a preference just go higher on that guy. I will get more Wright because he is cheaper and I think has more ways to win. Don’t trust these guys in cash games but this is a fight I want in half or more of my lineups.
Winner – Jordan Wright via 2nd round Submission
Dwight Grant $8,800 vs Calen Born $7,000
Born is taking this fight on 3 days’ notice so there is no telling what kind of shape he will be in. He looks like a powerful guy though who likes to go for the kill. Grant is a powerful fighter as well and likely will have the cardio edge with him having a training camp. Either guy could get a KO at any time in this fight and if they get takedowns they can probably keep top control for a while and win rounds that way. Grant is probably the better striker and more likely to get the KO, but he is not active enough for my liking and I feel like Born will come out hot and could finish in round 1 or just win the round on activity. He probably slows down after that but at this line it is dog or pass for me and I am going to pick the underdog to get a big upset in his short notice debut.
Grant is in play for the KO. If he doesn’t get it, I don’t see him being on the optimal. I don’t have a lot of interest in him, but I will get a bit. Born is my preferred play here and he is a guy who I would think scores decent in a win but more so he is a cheap underdog that I think is live. He doesn’t need a huge score at $7k and if he wins I think there is a good chance at getting 10x or more. Not a fight we have to target but even with 5 or less lineups I would probably have at least 1 Born, just in case he does get that early KO.
Winner – Calen Born via 1st round (T)KO
Joe Solecki $8,400 vs Austin Hubbard $7,800
Joe Solecki
Age: 26
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: Gym-O
From: North Carolina
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 215
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -135
Joe Solecki vs Austin Hubbard has gotten rebooked here after they were supposed to fight in June. Solecki contracted Covid & was forced to pull out of their first fight. In Solecki’s first fight in the UFC he dominated Matt Wiman and is looking to gain momentum here against Hubbard. On the feet, Solecki is still very much developing. He is a good athlete with decent fakes & fluid movement. Solecki will throw some hard, low kicks. He has a nice, lead left hook. He will throw the left hook to the body as well. When Solecki throws hooks in the pocket, his chin is straight in the air. His striking is very green, and overall, he does a lot of circling and waiting on the feet. He is low volume and doesn’t open up much. He’s a smart fighter who knows his strengths and is waiting to time a takedown. Solecki has just one career finish via strikes. He was knocked out in a fight in 2018.
Joe Solecki is a grinder. He is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu & a solid wrestler. He does a good job of throwing some punches as a distraction & ducking under for double legs. He will time doubles when opponents throw kicks or catch kicks & take fighters down that way. In his last fight, he didn’t really set up his takedowns with strikes very well. Against a better opponent he needs to set the shots up better. Once Solecki gets on top he is very heavy & methodical. He throws hard ground & pound, and just takes what his opponents give him. He will just beat on guys from inside their full guard. When he can pass, he will look to move to side control, trap wrists & rain down shots. He will hunt arm triangles, back control & rear naked chokes are really his thing. He is excellent at finding ways to get his hooks in & controlling the back position in the scrambles. He will soften opponents up before locking in the chokes & finishing the fight. Solecki will setup guillotines from the back, allow opponents to turn in & submit them from bottom. He got a nasty guillotine on the DWCS. In Solecki’s last fight he dominated Matt Wiman on top. Solecki has four rear naked chokes and six submissions overall. He went three rounds pretty hard in his last fight, but really had to fight through no adversity.
Austin Hubbard
Age: 28
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 113
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +115
Austin Hubbard cashed as a big underdog in his last fight. It was one of the higher profile fights of the year, but not really due to Hubbard. His opponent Max Rohskopf quit on the stool, sparking a ton of backlash & controversy. All credit to Hubbard though who was dominating the fight. Hubbard has been up & down in the UFC, but if he can win here it would really give him some momentum. Hubbard has been getting matched up with beast grapplers in the UFC. He has already fought Jiu-Jitsu world champion Davi Ramos and Olympic wrestler Mark Madsen. He also took on an elite wrestler Jiu-Jitsu blend fighter in Rohskopf. Now he’s getting another Jiu-Jitsu fighter in Joe Solecki. Hubbard has fought much stiffer competition than Solecki has. He is training at Elevation Fight Team, a team that is on a tear right now as well. Hubbard is a solid athlete with good striking & very good movement. He uses a lot of false starts, fakes & feints, along with stance switching. Hubbard is a counter striker, but he’s excellent at going forward, cutting off the cage and staying in his opponent’s face. He has a fast jab & nice one-two. He will feint to create openings for his straight-right hand. He has pretty solid in & out movement. He likes to leap into a left hook. He will throw straight-right to left hooks to the body. He also will throw very nice left hooks to the body to left hooks to the head combinations. He has nice counter uppercuts & front knees. In his match with Madsen, he hurt him badly with a knee and broke his jaw. He likes to throw front leg round kicks to the body. He will mix in spinning backfists & spinning back kicks to the body. He can be low output & tends to wait for opponents to strike to counter. He will stand in front of opponents at times & is heavy on his lead leg. He can also be hit by overhands & straight punches. Hubbard isn’t a big power hitter but has four career TKO’s. He’s never been finished by strikes.
Austin Hubbard is a pretty decent wrestler. He does do a good job of using his punches to create entries into singles & doubles and has pretty good back takes. When fighters pressure him, he tends to be hittable & wants to shoot takedowns. Hubbard in this fight is obviously going to want to try to keep it on the feet. His takedown defense is improving but not great. In his slaughter of Rohskopf, he showed really good single leg defense. His initial takedown defense is good, he tends to get taken down by chain wrestling, but more specifically in the clinch. He tends to give his back from standing. Hubbard’s get-ups were on point in his last fight & he was making Rohskopf pay for the attempts with hard knees. Hubbard has good get-ups against the cage. Hubbard was able to survive some bad positions against good guys on the mat & is a tough guy to finish. He defended some heel hooks in his last fight. Hubbard has been submitted one time & has 3 career submissions.
Solecki should have a big edge on the ground here but the striking will be interesting and probably favors Hubbard. Hubbard has been getting a lot of these matchups against wrestlers/grapplers, so he should be prepared here, but Solecki has too much of an advantage there to pick against him. The longer this fight goes the more it could favor Hubbard, but Solecki is the fighter with more potential and he could finish on the mat.
Solecki is my preferred DK play and I don’t have much interest in Hubbard. I think Solecki is the only one with a real ceiling here with an early submission, but we have seen Hubbard avoid that against guys like Madsen and Ramos, so we can’t invest much in that happening. I will have a decent amount of Solecki here still and I like him in all formats, but I would think he makes 30-35% of my lineups. Hubbard is a guy who is probably going to need to win the last half of the fight to get his hand raised but for DK we probably need a late finish from him to score well. I don’t see the early KO from him here, so he might be a fade for me this week. I wouldn’t talk you off using him, I just would rather take shots on dogs I like if I am making 20 or less lineups.
Winner – Joe Solecki via 1st round Submission
Mizuki Inoue $8,600 vs Amanda Lemos $7,600
Mizuki Inoue
Age: 26
Height: 5’3
Weight: 115
Reach: 64”
Gym: Hakushinkai Karate
From: Japan
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 23
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -140
Mizuki Inoue is making her second UFC start after an impressive victory over Yanan Wu. Wu is one of the biggest 125ers in the division & she was still able to get the victory. Now Inoue is making the drop down to her original weight class of 115 lbs. Inoue has some high-level experience at 115, much more than Lemos. She has fought the likes of Ayaka Hanasaki, Alex Chambers, Bec Rawlings, Karolina Kowalkiewicz, Alexa Grasso, and Virna Jandiroba. You can see the experience exuding from Mizuki in the cage. She has an extreme calmness and composure in the cage. She will never break or waiver. Mizuki has really improved her defense on the feet. She has excellent head movement. She is good at ducking and rolling punches. She has a nice jab and a strong one-two. She will throw the one-two, duck and roll & then fire back with another combo. Her feints are really good. She had Wu really biting hard on her feints. Mizuki will go downstairs and then follow that up with left hooks. She has great forward pressure & throws a lot of volume. That’s going to be the battle in this fight. The volume & forward pressure of Mizuki vs the power of Lemos. Mizuki isn’t the most athletic girls so she can struggle with explosive athletes. She is going to have a big power disadvantage in this fight also. Watching her last fight with Wu, it’s surprising that it was a split decision. The first two rounds Mizuki pressured, hit and barely got hit back. She showed great defense and just kind of dominated Wu in my opinion. She is a warrior with a great chin who is willing to bang & won’t back down in a fire fight.
Mizuki Inoue has a super solid grappling game. She is very strong in the clinch. She has a nice underhooks game, good elbows and dirty boxing. She has solid takedowns in the clinch. She really isn’t an active seeker of the takedown though. She likes to pressure girls with her boxing and draw out bad takedowns. Off her back, she has a great guard. She has great sweeps and submissions from there, and her guard is very hard to pass. She has a great armbar that she’s caught many opponents with. In her fight with Virna Jandiroba she was able to control Virna in her guard, shut down her game and even threaten some subs. Jandiroba later on in the fight, was able to take her back with a lot of time to work, and Mizuki showed great defense. Jandiroba is a world class black belt and Mizuki was able to survive & get on top. Mizuki has 10 submissions, 9 of which are armbars. Her cardio & composure is the most impressive thing about her. She will not get tired and that will be a huge advantage for her in this fight.
Amanda Lemos
Age: 33
Height: 5’4
Weight: 115
Reach: 65”
Gym: Marajó Brothers Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 29
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +120
Amanda Lemos came back with a vengeance in her last fight. She returned from a long USADA suspension, came back in a new weight class as a big dog & won in resounding fashion. She took Miranda Granger’s perfect record, submitting her in the first round. Lemos looked like a beast at 115 lbs and could be a factor in the division. Lemos is actually a pretty technical, powerful striker. She has solid movement, heavy low kicks to the inside & outside. Lemos has a nice jab and good left hook. She will walk opponents into one-twos and double, straight-right hands. Lemos has a heavy, accurate overhand right. Lemos has pretty fluid hands & good hand speed. She puts combinations together well. Lemos throws with power & is a finisher. Lemos has nice, heavy round & front kicks to the body. She will throw spinning heel kicks. Defensively Lemos leaves a lot to be desired. When fighters force her to trade in the pocket, she gets very wild & doesn’t move her head. She will lean back with her chin right in the air & holds her hands completely down. Leslie Smith put a pace on her she couldn’t keep up with. She backed her towards the cage, put the volume on her & got her out of there. Lemos was visibly exhausted in round two. When she gets tired she will back up to the fence & shell up rather than using movement. Lemos struggles to fight moving backwards & doesn’t offer much. When she can go forward and dictate the pace of the fight, she usually is winning. Lemos has finished 5 of her 7 wins via KO/TKO.
Amanda Lemos showed off her grappling in her last fight. Lemos isn’t a terrible grappler. In the clinch, she is physical & hits nice body locks and trips. She will posture up and throw some pretty hard shots on top. In her last fight she was able to hit a rear naked choke from a weird angle with no hooks in. She choked her opponent out cold quickly, which proved her squeeze is serious. Lemos has been backed up pretty easily in past fights. She can be controlled in the clinch against the cage & showed poor defense defending knees & elbows. I haven’t seen Lemos have to deal with many good wrestlers, but she has shown decent takedown defense against the cage. I’ve seen Lemos hit a decent guillotine when a fighter shot in on her against the fence. I have seen her taken down with a trip in a regional scene fight, and her guard was passed & her back taken. Lemos was able to hit a deep, half guard sweep & took top position. Lemos slows down in fights especially when fighters make her fight at a high pace. Lemos had yet another first round finish in her last fight so her cardio is still a question mark. She should have to work harder to get to 115 but has yet to show her cardio has improved. In her fight with Leslie Smith, she gassed out very badly. It will be interesting to see her extended past one round.
This should be a close fight. Inoue looks like the more technical striker where Lemos looks like the more dangerous striker. Lemos might be more aggressive when it comes to looking for takedowns as well, but Inoue should have the edge on the ground and I think she is more dangerous there. Lemos should have the size advantage and maybe she can land hard shots and change rounds with that or takedowns, but Inoue gets the advantage in point fighting and this probably hits the scorecards.
I don’t have a lot of interest in this fight, but I also wouldn’t X either out of my player pool. I think the most likely outcome is that this goes the distance and I don’t see either scoring highly if that is the case. I think both are playable if you see a finish on either side, but I don’t have a real preference myself and I will probably let the DFS ARMY optimizer just fill them in for me, but I will be sure to have less than 10-15% of both. If I was making 5 or less lineups I would just fade this fight.
Winner – Mizuki Inoue via Unanimous Decision
Daniel Rodriguez $8,700 vs Takashi Sato $7,500
Daniel Rodriguez
Age: 33
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: Tapout LA
From: California
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 63
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -185
Daniel Rodriguez will be looking to move to 3-0 in the UFC. He has won eight fights in a row, and his one career loss was a split decision. Rodriguez is a rough and rugged guy who is going to be ready for the moment. Rodriguez is a technical striker. He also has an excellent lead hand. He will switch stances and likes to use a right jab or check right hook. Rodriguez will keep the volume high & mostly works basics. He will throw a lot of jabs to the body & head, low kicks and gets ahead on points. His right hook has big power, and he can shut opponents lights out with both hands. Rodriguez will attack the body with punches as well. Rodriguez has a nice jab, overhand left combination. His overhand left is his knockout shot & he will wing it with full power. He will throw a jab, duck under & come over the top with big left hooks. Rodriguez will overextend & leave himself susceptible to counters. Rodriguez is a pressure fighter who cuts the cage off and is just a bruiser. He looks very durable but takes a lot of punishment. He ate a lot of big shots vs Gabriel Green. Rodriguez has never been finished by strikes. He is willing to take shots to give shots & will turn up if he feels it’s close or he needs a finish. Rodriguez does hold his hands low and is susceptible to body shots. He got hurt with a body shot vs Rico Farrington. Rodriguez has 6 career KO/TKO’s.
Daniel Rodriguez is a Tenth Planet trained grappler, but there is limited footage of him grappling online. Rodriguez is a thick, strong fighter for the division, and looks strong in the clinch. He has a nasty knee knockout in the clinch in his career. He did hit a body lock & double takedown vs Farrington. He seemed to time takedowns in the last 10 seconds of rounds to seal them. In previous fights I’ve seen him defend takedowns, take top position & do work. He will move to mount & work strikes to finish the fight. In his contender series fight he got a takedown late in round three, took mount & almost got the late finish. Rodriguez will hunt arm triangles from mount. When fighters give their backs, he will jump on rear naked chokes. Rodriguez has three career submissions & has never been submitted. He has strong cardio & is a dog.
Takashi Sato
Age: 30
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: Tribe Tokyo MMA
From: Japan
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 73
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +160
Takashi Sato has looked good winning two of his first three UFC fights. He earned a quick knockout victory in his last match in less than one minute. Sato is a good striker. He has a wide stance & is very light on his feet. He controls distance extremely well. He has a nasty jab & a clean, powerful straight-left hand. His punches come fast & he moves extremely fluidly with little to no wasted movement. He does a great job of throwing a jab followed by a left elbow which is nasty. He will attack the body with nasty body shots, straight-left hands & left hooks. He is excellent of just sliding out of the way of strikes & countering with his straight-left or left hook. He has extremely fast hand speed & does a great job of peppering with shots & then mixing in more powerful ones. He does stand a bit upright & has his chin high, so he is there to be hit. His eyes & head movement save him in that regard because he’s able to see the shots coming, move, counter & discourage his opponents. He also is heavy on his lead leg & is there to be leg kicked. Sato has a good chin but can be hurt. He has gotten rocked on several occasions & knocked out before. He has good recoverability & has only been finished by strikes one time. Sato has knockout power with 11 KO/TKO’s.
Sato has good grappling. He has good body lock & judo throw takedowns. He has a strong top game, likes to take the back & will get the mount & finish with strikes. He won his last two fights via ground & pound. Sato is a good defensive grappler. He has solid takedown defense & good get-ups. In the clinch, he has strong hips & will even counter with judo throws & big elbows. He is good at springing right back to his feet & not letting opponents get his hips square on the mat. He is good at sprawling & circling to the back himself. Sato impressed me a lot with his grappling ability, even though he got submitted in his fight vs Glaico Franca. He was able to deny a majority of the takedown attempts, stand up very quickly when taken down, and even defended a rear naked choke & had some ground & pound from top control. He was able to takedown Muhammad with a nice body lock. He showed heavy hips and good clinch takedown defense. Belal Muhammad was able to take Sato down as well, and eventually took the back & got a rear naked choke finish. Sato does give up his back a lot & has to be careful with that in this fight. Sato isn’t a submission threat with just two in his career. He has been submitted twice.
This should be a fun one. Both guys are solid on the feet and either could get a KO finish. The ground is a question mark on what will happen there but either guy could land takedowns and possibly steal a close round that way. The majority of this fight should be on the feet though and the line looks right with Rodriguez being favored. Hard to see much value in his 2-1 line but he is the pick here.
Rodriguez has scored 126 and 105 DK points in his two UFC fights and he landed 175 significant strikes in his last fight. He has a ground game as well, so we could possibly see takedowns, but I like his ceiling and he is my preferred play of the two for sure. Sato scored well in his two UFC wins as well but against easier competition. I don’t care for him as much here, so I am willing to not use him if I am making 20 or less lineups. If I do create more than 20 and use an optimizer, then I will probably limit him to 10-15% max exposure. Rodriguez is a guy I want to be overweight on though and I could see him winning with a KO, sub, or decision.
Winner – Daniel Rodriguez via Unanimous Decision
Mariya Agapova $9,300 vs Shana Dobson $6,800
Mariya Agapova
Age: 23
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Kazakhstan
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 23
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -1250
Mariya Agapova had an incredible UFC debut. She decimated Hannah Cifers finishing her in the first round. Agapova is someone who with a couple wins could become a star in the UFC. She is very marketable and has an “It” factor in the cage. Agapova has a great frame for the division. She is tall at 5’8, has a long reach, but also now has packed on size. Agapova is also a lot less choppy with her footwork. She is cleaner with her in & out movement and her head movement. Agapova has a really nice one-two, jab and overhand right. She is getting better with her hands, throwing straighter and less loopy strikes. Mashka will throw a lot of kicks as well; Nice low kicks, as well as good front & sidekicks to the body. She has super heavy round kicks. Her rear body kicks are vicious. She landed a brutal head kick that dropped Hannah Cifers in her last fight. Agapova will throw some naked kicks that can get her countered or taken down. Agapova will throw some superman punches & elbows. She is open with her striking, and wild but getting more refined. Agapova is getting harder to hit but is still willing to engage in brawls. In her last match which was a fun, high paced fight, she exchanged some wild hooks with Marilla Santos who is another power hitter. Agapova fights with no fear in there & lets it all go. She has great forward pressure & a lot of volume. When she hurts an opponent, she will swarm and finish. Agapova has a great chin as well and is willing to eat shots. She is a fun fighter to watch. Agapova has finished three fights by strikes.
Mariya Agapova is improving as a grappler. On the contender series, she was taken down & grinded out. Since then she has gone to a good camp in American Top Team and has been training with coaches like King Mo, and partners like Gillian Robertson. Agapova is not a very active seeker of the takedown. She is getting better with her defensive grappling, but I still think she will struggle with elite wrestlers. Agapova can be controlled in the clinch, but she is improving with getting her back off the cage. She can be taken down as well, but her takedown defense is above average. Off her back she is actually effective with armbars. She will look for triangle chokes as well. Agapova wasn’t able to stand up effectively & continuously gave her back in her fight with Tracy Cortez. She did show heart getting up in the third and going for it at the tail end of the fight. In Agapova’s last match her opponent pulled guard and it was a big mistake. On top, Agapova is nasty. She rains down big hammerfists and punches and has heavy elbows. In her last fight, she finished off Murilla Santos with a barrage of heavy elbows. Agapova was threatened with a couple armbars but postured out of them pretty easily. Marilla Chocolate is a brown belt in Jiu-Jitsu, so she isn’t a slouch on the mat. Agapova had really nice back takes against Hannah Cifers & Alexa Conners, jumping on their back from standing after hurting them & choking them out. When she can get the back, she is good at finishing. Agapova has four submissions. She has finished seven of nine of her wins. Agapova is very dangerous in round one with six first round finishes. Her cardio is good to me though in my opinion. Agapova is a dangerous new addition to the division.
Shana Dobson
Age: 31
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 69”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Maryland
UFC Record: 1-3
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: +800
Shana Dobson is in desperate search of victory. She has lost three in a row & was knocked out in less than one minute in her last bout. With an overall record of 3-4 she really isn’t a great fighter. Dodson is a striker & a pretty good athlete. Her hands are only ok to me. She comes up short a lot with her punches. She tries to throw the jab out there, and always starts combos with jabs. She likes to throw jab, overhand rights or jab, right hooks. She will throw right hooks & overhand rights as leads also. She will explode in with nice punching combinations & when she lands she has power. Dobson will attack the body with hooks at times. Her kicks are the best part of her game. She has very heavy, inside leg kicks and is fluid throwing kicks with both legs. She has nice round kicks to the body & head especially with her lead leg. She will throw front leg sidekicks with her lead leg occasionally. She will flick the kick up there & it’s hard to see coming at times. She will throw spinning kicks to the body as well. In her one UFC win she landed a nice overhand right to right hook combination that dropped her opponent. Ariel Beck is very low level & that was her only UFC fight. Dobson tends to allow opponents to control the center of the cage & push her backwards. When she moves backwards defensively, she has a bad tendency to extend her lead hand to try to create distance, but it leads to her getting hit with punches. She doesn’t like being hit & when fighters aggressively forward pressure her she looks very uncomfortable. She will panic wrestle in those situations. When her nose started bleeding in her last fight it looked to break Dobson mentally. Dobson has shown power in my opinion in her fights, but just has one KO/TKO. She has been finished by strikes twice both in round one.
Dobson is not a grappler & her grappling defense is not very good. She gives up double underhooks very easily & can be controlled against the cage. When she fought Roxanne Modafferi the first time, Roxanne got ahold of her against the cage and took her down with a body lock. Dobson showed nothing off her back, was mounted & finished with elbows. She tried to explode out of mount a couple times but had no real technique on bottom. She is strong & was able to disengage from the clinch vs Mueller a few times. She did get a takedown out of necessity in round 3 when she was getting tagged up but couldn’t control position. Mueller was also able to get a third-round takedown, but Dobson worked back to her feet. Dobson isn’t a submission threat with none in her career. She has never been submitted.
Agapova should smash here. I think she is levels ahead of Dobson in every aspect of MMA. Dobson has strength so maybe she can land a lucky KO, but aside from that, I would be shocked if she won this fight and I expect Agapova to dominate every second of it. I think she probably drops Dobson at some point and ends with a submission or ground and pound until the ref steps in.
I will probably be close to all-in on Agapova here. She is a lock in cash games and I like enough underdogs where I am fine with locking her into 150 lineups. The worry is that she maybe wins too early and only scores like 97 points, and that might not cut it at super high ownership. She is my favorite play on the card though, so I want 70% at least and could be closer to 90%. Dobson is somebody who I want zero of. If she somehow improved big time and ruins my night then so be it, I just don’t think she has a shot other than some injury, DQ or crazy fluke outcome.
Winner – Mariya Agapova via 1st round Submission
Mike Rodriguez $8,900 vs Marcin Prachnio $7,300
Mike Rodriguez
Age: 31
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 82.5”
Gym: Lauzon MMA
From: Massachusetts
UFC Record: 1-2-1
Fight Matrix: 115
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -235
Mike Rodriguez needs to get back on track here. He has a UFC record of 1-2-1, but really has lost three times in the cage. His fight with John Allan was a loss but was turned to a NC after Allan popped for steroids. In Rodriguez’s last fight he was knocked out cold by Da Un Jung in the first round. Mike Rodriguez is a very dangerous striker but hasn’t put together his full MMA game. He is a great athlete. He likes to use a lot of oblique kicks to the legs and front kicks to the body. He has powerful round kicks to the legs, he took Devin Clark off his feet with a leg kick. He has a nice jab and a fast, straight-right hand. He doesn’t throw much in combination, and I feel he is nervous to let strikes go in close range for fear of being taken down. He has a good right hook, and a nasty round and front kicks to the body. In space, he is very dangerous. He will throw the front kick to the face, and he closes the distance with very nice jump knees. He dropped and finished his opponent on DWCS with a jump knee. He needs to improve staying at his range after he throws and not getting so close where his opponent can tie up with him. In his last fight, he was caught early with a straight shot & put out cold for the first time in his career. Rodriguez has 7 KO/TKO’s in 9 wins.
Rodriguez is improving as a grappler and showed that against Devin Clark. He still gets too close to opponents on the feet and allows them to get inside and close the distance or duck under and take him down. He used to be extremely easy to take down, but in his fight against Clark he showed improved takedown defense against the cage. He was using an underhook to deny the attempt and was landing nice short knees to the body. He was trapping the wrist of his opponent and throwing knees and elbows. He can be taken down with reactive double legs, but he’s gotten better at using the cage to return to his feet. He showed a nice sprawl in space, and attacks with Travis Browne elbows to the head. When he fought John Allan, he was taken down in round one & three with a body lock but worked back to his feet. In round two he was able to deny a takedown & control Allan in top position from inside his guard. He was able to defend an armbar & a guillotine. In the third round, he was controlled on his back and that is why he lost the round & subsequently the fight. He is still trying to put it all together & definitely needs to stay off his back in this one. Rodriguez has been submitted one time in his career but has decent submission defense. He has only one career submission. Rodriguez does tend to get a bit tired, but I feel if the fight is a striking fight he will be able to go a hard three rounds.
Marcin Prachnio
Age: 32
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 74”
Gym: Tatsujin Dojo Deventer
From: Poland
UFC Record: L2
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +195
Marcin Prachnio is still in search of his first UFC win. He has had two poor outings in his first two fights getting knocked out in both. He has been fighting some solid competition, but just has looked terrible. He is a very aggressive, karate fighter. He has a long stance and he is in constant forward motion. He throws some nice, long punches, front kicks up the middle and knees. He is very wild and doesn’t care about defense or setting his shots up well. He will throw a lot of naked kicks as well as being very wide with his punches. He walks forward and wings hooks looking for the finish, but he is very upright in his stance, as well as not moving his head and keeping his hands low. He has power, and if he can connect he can knock guys out. He will throw a sloppy spinning wheel kick blind. He had a pretty brutal KO loss to San Alvey, in which he showed poor fight IQ, getting dropped instead of being defensive. He walked forward while he was hurt with his hands down and got knocked out. He does seem fearless and he has big heart and the will to win. He is just not very talented overall. He has 10 TKO’s in his 13 wins.
Marcin Prachnio is not an offensive grappler. His takedown defense is not very good. His forward pressure leaves him susceptible to takedowns. I have seen him get taken down on the regional scene. In this fight, I expect it to play out on the feet. Prachnio slows down significantly in fights. He has bad cardio & poor fight IQ.
Rodriguez should be the better all-around striker and fighter, but this line looks too wide. Prachnio should be the guy with more power and I think he is very live for an upset KO here, if he doesn’t get KO’d himself. I also think Prachnio can keep this fight close and win on the scorecards, so it isn’t a KO or bust fight for him. It’s hard to trust a guy like Prachnio after how he looked in his first two UFC fights, but this is dog or pass for me.
Prachnio is my preferred play because I think he could score 100+ and break the slate. He could get a KO at super cheap and be somebody we need just to profit. I need to be overweight in case that happens. I need some Rodriguez too because he could easily get the 1st round KO and score over 100 as well. This is probably the best fight on the card to target both sides of because of the 1st round KO potential. I won’t be all-in, but I will be close to it. Don’t trust either guy in cash games but I want to be overweight on both in GPPs if I can.
Winner – Marcin Prachnio via 1st round (T)KO
Alonzo Menifield $8,300 vs Ovince Saint Preux $7,900
Alonzo Menifield
Age: 32
Height: 6’0
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix:
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -130
Alonzo Menifield is an explosive, powerful athlete, who is a former pro football player. He is very fast and throws with bad intentions. Menifield always starts very quickly and tries to take opponents out right away. He has a nice jab and a good one-two. He likes to close the distance with a leaping left hook, and it’s very powerful. He will throw left hook, overhand right combinations. Menifield has dangerous, wild hooks inside. He will throw with 100% power. Menifield has nice kicks and will throw hard leg, body & head kicks. He has good speed on his kicks. Menifield has good forward pressure and takes advantage when fighters make mistakes. He is improving with his composure, but still can swing big and wide at times. In his last fight, he almost finished Devin Clark in round one & gassed himself out going for it. I’ve seen him rocked and hit with counters just because he’s throwing so hard. He needs to be more composed in this fight, and not allow St. Preux to get in on his legs. Menifield has finished 8 of 9 wins via KO/TKO & and is a knockout artist. He has a good chin & is a sturdy, durable fighter.
Alonzo Menifield is a big, strong, athletic, explosive guy. This makes him a half decent offensive grappler. He has good double legs. When he gets in on opponent’s legs, he is extremely explosive & and it’s hard to stop him from taking them down. In the clinch, he is strong and will land knees, and look for single & double legs. He can land nasty, single leg slams and really manhandle opponents. He does a great job of taking the back very quickly after takedowns and has a good rear naked choke. He also is very heavy on top & has nasty elbows & ground & pound. If he drops an opponent, he will pounce and is great at finishing with ground and pound. A large majority of his wins come that way. His last two wins he viciously put Vinicius Moreira & Paul Craig unconscious with punches from top position. Alonzo Menifield’s defensive grappling is not the best. He throws shots full power, planting hard & if opponents can time that and shoot they will likely get him down. Daniel Jolly was able to take him down a couple times, once with a double leg and once with a body lock. Against the cage, Menifield also allowed Vinicius Moreira who is low level get in deep on a body lock and control him against the fence. He showed good takedown defense, but Moreira isn’t the explosive athlete St. Preux is. In his fight with Devin Clark, he stuffed almost all the takedowns, but was just held against the cage. He only was taken down 1 time in that fight. Menifield is not a submission threat with just one in his career.
Ovince St Preux
Age: 37
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 80”
Gym: Knoxville Martial Arts
From: Tennessee
UFC Record: 12-9
Fight Matrix: 26
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +110
OSP is long and rangy with a very odd striking style. He has his hands down and will attack from odd angles with unorthodox strikes. He will square up with his opponents a lot which is usually not technically sound, but it gives him knockout power from both sides and he makes it work. He will explode forward with a nice straight-left hand. Saint Preux has a nice, long right hook. His straight punches blitzes are very fast. Saint Preux has nasty round kicks to the body & head and good snap kicks. He will throw front leg sidekicks to the body. Sometimes he can look super sloppy. He will really overextend & throw himself off balance. He struggles with fighters who use movement & kick. He also doesn’t throw many combinations and will just go for one shot kill shots. The issue with Saint Preux’s striking style is he’s lost his reflexes. He still holds his hands low & instead of slipping & ripping or beating opponents to the punch, he is getting tagged clean. Saint Preux has been dropped & hurt in a lot of recent fights. It looks like his speed with his offensive strikes has gone along with some confidence & durability. He will go second a lot, & after being hit go into a defensive shell. He was essentially knocked out at the bell vs Dominick Reyes & took some bombs from Nikita Krylov & Oleksiejczuk. Against Krylov, Saint Preux barely landed any strikes whatsoever on the feet & looked stuck in quicksand compared to Krylov. OSP is still very dangerous himself & if he beats fighters, he’s usually finishing them. He has 11 career KO/TKO’s including 4 in the UFC.
Saint Preux is a good grappler and has relied much more on that in recent fights. He is a solid wrestler and very physical. He has good double leg takedowns and strong body locks. Saint Preux can panic wrestle at times & leave his head inside to be guillotined. He was put to sleep by Ilir Latifi with a guillotine. He is good in the clinch and can control fighters against the fence. He has good knees to the body, short punches and elbows. He can leave too much space in the clinch & get hit with big punches & elbows himself. On top, OSP is once again very unorthodox. He has a calf slicer and 4 Von Flue chokes. He got yet another in his last fight. He was able to takedown Krylov in round one of his rematch and take the mount. Saint Preux has excellent arm locks. He got a straight armbar on Tyson Pedro in his last win. Saint Preux cares more about getting the submission than position & fighters are able to scramble back to their feet on him if they avoid the sub. His takedown defense is very good. He is super hard to take down in space and does a great job of getting his back to the fence where he has great takedown defense. OSP has great wrist control and will get very wide making it hard for fighters to clamp their hands together. He will reverse takedowns with switches & the whizzer & is very aggressive in top position. He defended 7 out of 8 of Corey Anderson’s takedowns, and eventually finished him with a head kick. If he does get taken down, he has a great get-up game, and is super hard to hold down. When fighters can cement position on him he has issues though. He allows opponents to move to dominant positions & looked to quit when taken down in his last match. He was almost immediately mounted, gave his back & was submitted by rear naked choke. OSP was rear naked choked by Glover Teixeira as well. Saint Preux does have 6 UFC submissions & 8 overall in his career. Saint Preux has been submitted 3 times. All OSP’s fights are entertaining & he is a kill or be killed fighter. In 21 UFC fights he has gone to decision just 7 times. I will say in his last fight he didn’t have that same killer at HW. Saint Preux has finished 10 of his 12 UFC wins.
Menifield is one of the scarier strikers in the division and can knock anybody out with the right shot. However, he needs that KO to come in round 1 or else he doesn’t have the cardio or power to win the last half of a fight. I think if OSP weathers the early storm he will win this fight. He could get a KO of his own early, but if he survives the big shots from Menifield in round 1, I think he finishes the fight in round 2 or round 3.
This is more so dog or pass for me on the betting line, but on DK, it’s kind of the other way around. Menifield is the one with 100+ potential here and I want to have a good amount of exposure to him in case that happens. If OSP wins this fight it is probably later in the fight and maybe even a decision. I don’t see a big ceiling from him, so he isn’t a must play, but he is a dog that I like so I want some exposure to him as well. I will probably be about 30-40% on Menifield here and then maybe 25% OSP. I want to have a good number of lineups without this fight too because they could both gas and this could be a slop fest for the last half of the fight.
Winner – Ovince St. Preux via 2nd round Submission
Pedro Munhoz $9,000 vs Frankie Edgar $7,200
Pedro Munhoz
Age: 33
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 65”
Gym: Black House MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 9-4
Fight Matrix: 9
Last Fought: 1 year 2 months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -255
Pedro Munhoz will be looking to collect another former UFC champions scalp. He defeated Cody Garbrandt last year in a big upset by knockout & now is going after the former 155 lb champ Frankie Edgar. Munhoz will start off most fights throwing a lot of kicks. Hard low kicks, & front/round kicks to the body. His low leg kick is nasty & I see him trying to utilize that here against Edgar. He is always coming forward, walking opponents down & applying the pressure. He has a decent jab & powerful left hook. He will throw a round or front kick to the body to a straight-right hand combination. His front kick is debilitating. He will drive the toes into the liver finishing Bryan Caraway with it. He will rip the body with hooks. He will throw the occasional high kick. His forward pressure drains fighters & forces them into mistakes. He will sit down & throw hook & uppercut combinations full power in the pocket. He has good lead overhand rights & will throw overhand right, left hook combinations. He is very good at coming in with a high guard, blocking strikes & returning with hook combinations. It does leave him susceptible to body shots, but I haven’t really seen opponents attack with them. His style goads opponents into wars where he has a chin of granite & huge power. He beat Brett Johns pillar to post for 3 rounds & finished Bryan Caraway in the first round via TKO. We saw that in his last match when he knocked out Cody Garbrandt after being dropped himself. He does have deficiencies. Munhoz is very hittable & doesn’t move his head. He is slow for the division & a bit of a plodder. He has struggled vs quick strikers such as John Dodson, Jimmie Rivera, & Rapha Assuncao. He is going to have to get inside of the kicks of Edgar & keep a high volume of strikes on the feet. Munhoz has 4 career KO/TKO’s. He’s never been finished by strikes & has an amazing chin.
Pedro Munhoz is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu & a very opportunistic submission artist. He doesn’t tend to shoot a lot in fights, but he has more often recently. He will shoot good, reactive single & double leg takedowns. He isn’t a great wrestler & has very few takedowns in the UFC. He has fantastic takedown defense & attacks with one of the best guillotines in the business. He has a very heavy sprawl. He has to have his wrestling defense on point in this match, because I think Edgar will test it. His takedown defense & grappling against the cage is excellent, which will be huge in winning this fight. He is very good at breaking opponents posture by pushing the head down and will also counter with the kimura trap. He is very good at digging underhooks & reversing position. He is also good at disengaging the clinch with knees to the head. I’ve never seen an opponent really hold him down or do anything from top position against him. On top, he is heavy & methodical while always looking to attack the guillotine. He is very good at hurting his opponents with a shot & jumping on the neck from standing very quickly. In top position, he is solid. He will look to get cross body in half guard, where he is very heavy. He will look for arm triangles from half guard. He will also try to move to side control & get the crucifix position. He doesn’t have the greatest top control, & when he postures up for ground & pound strong wrestlers can usually find their way back to their feet. In this fight, I see him attempting to defend takedowns & strike. He will obviously jump on that neck if he sees an opportunity but grappling with Edgar gives Edgar the best chance to win. Munhoz has 8 career submissions & has never been submitted. His cardio, pace & pressure breaks opponents, and his best rounds are usually the later rounds. This is his first five round fight & I think that will benefit him.
Frankie Edgar
Age: 38
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135 (debut)
Reach: 72”
Gym: Ricardo Almeida Jiu-Jitsu
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 17-8-1
Fight Matrix: 8
Last Fought: 8 months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +215
Frankie Edgar is finally making the drop to BW after 13 years in the UFC. He is 38 years old & it will be interesting to see how he does at this weight class & with the cut. Edgar needs a win here. He’s lost 3 of 4 and a loss would likely end all title dreams for him if they aren’t already over. Edgar is a wrestler/boxer with a black belt, great cardio & durability. He has great footwork and likes to use technical boxing to stick & move, then explode in with combinations or a takedown attempt. He has very good counter hooks, especially the left hook and good leg kicks. I see those being big weapons in the fight. Frankie is fast closing the distance & will fake level changes as he enters to create opportunities to land big overhands & uppercuts. He has been hittable over his career and hurt many times. He has been hurt by a lead elbow & lead hook in two of his last three fights. Edgar was finished by Korean Zombie brutally in his last fight marking the second time in his career he’s been TKO’d. His chin isn’t the same as it used to be.
Frankie Edgar is an excellent wrestler. He has amazing singles & doubles and some of the best wrestling in the sport. He sets his takedowns up with his strikes seamlessly. When opponents pressure he will just duck under into blast doubles. He has good clinch takedowns also, and snaps opponents down into the front headlock position. He has great control from that position & will look for guillotines. When Edgar gets opponents down, especially against the cage, he will posture up from guard or half guard & rain down G&P. This was last shown against Yair Rodriguez as Frankie pummeled him with G&P until the fight was stopped. He isn’t a big submission threat & only has 3 career submissions, two rear naked chokes & a guillotine. Edgar won’t have to worry about getting taken down here, but he has an excellent guard & get-up game. Edgar has great cardio also & this is a great matchup.
Edgar has lost 3 of his last 4 fights and he is closing in on 38 years of age. I think he is the better wrestler of the two here but Munhoz has one of the best guillotines in the game, so I don’t think Edgar can win by racking up takedowns in this fight. I like Munhoz everywhere in this fight and I think he can get a knockout or submission win. If this goes 5-rounds, then I think Edgar can keep it close, but I think Munhoz is much more likely to finish and I also like him to win on the scorecards.
Pedro Munhoz is my 2nd core play of the week and I want to have about 70% or more of him. Him and Agapova are going to be the core of my lineups this weekend and I think they both have a good chance at 100+ in a win. I can see Munhoz finishing with a high-volume KO or a submission, but either way, with 5-rounds to work with he should pay off his salary. Edgar is going to be a lock for the optimal if he does win this fight, so I can’t fade him, and this will be an all-in fight for me, so I am guessing something like 75/25% in favor of Munhoz. I think the stack is fine in cash games and I think Munhoz solo is fine as well. I think this is a great spot for Munhoz to shine and get a huge win, so I want to be invested pretty heavily in him on DK and if I was making 10 or less lineups I would go all-in.
Winner – Pedro Munhoz via 2nd round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown & be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building & I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend & enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks & predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice & fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: BigMarleyMMA.com
- Bets are on a 1-5u scale with 1u = $100.
- I am 136-107 for +255.64u (+$25,564) since May 19, 2018 for all premium bets.
