BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC Vegas 6 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card at the UFC Apex in Vegas that will have no fans in attendance due to the pandemic. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games & look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience & you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player & it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups & 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights & hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Irwin Rivera $8,900 vs Ali Qaisi $7,300
Irwin Rivera
Age: 31
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Combat Club
From: Florida
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 154
Last Fought: 2.5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -175
Irwin Rivera put up a spirited effort in defeat in his UFC debut. He was called in to fight on short notice & up a weight class & pushed Giga Chikadze to a decision. He didn’t play it safe & took a lot of damage but showed his toughness. Now he gets to try his hand at his natural weight class. On the feet, Rivera is a quick, explosive guy. He has pretty good in & out movement on the outside, & is very quick darting in. He is a southpaw. Rivera usually goes first with kicks or flying attacks. He has decent low leg kicks & very good round kicks to the body with both legs. His rear leg, liver kick is vicious & has finished multiple fights for him. Rivera will go high with the kicks as well. Irwin Rivera loves to go airborne. He will throw a ton of superman punches, flying kicks & flying knees. Rivera will come forward with some very wide, wild hooks & uppercuts. He likes to feint, draw out a counter & throw a looping overhand left. Rivera is good at sneaking in punches to the body in combinations. In his last fight, Rivera really struggled to close that gap. Chikadze just picked him off with knees kicks, good movement, & really busted Rivera up. Rivera showed some extreme toughness & durability never taking a step back in the fight. He is low volume, & his striking style isn’t necessarily the most technical. Rivera tends to be losing a lot of his recent fights early, & then finds late finishes. He is solid & stays in the fight, wearing on his opponents & ultimately taking them out. In Titan FC I feel he would have lost his last two fights if they were three round fights. I had both Matt Wagy, & Danny Sabatello up on the score cards after three rounds, but Rivera finished both in the fourth. Rivera is a powerful guy & can finish. He has five KO/TKO’s. Rivera has been put down with punches just one time in his career.
Irwin Rivera should be improving his grappling. He is training at the combat club closely with fighters like Herbert & Gilbert Burns. Rivera’s wrestling defense is not very good. He can be taken down & controlled on the mat. He doesn’t threaten with submissions & is very stagnant. He just waits for a time to explode back to his feet. I have seen him controlled for large portions of rounds, & never return back to his feet. Rivera is decent in scrambles. Offensively, Rivera does have a good double leg takedown. He times it well & it’s a pretty fast shot. He doesn’t have the greatest control when he gets guys down. The takedown does help Rivera because they disguise his body punches, & he’s decent at catching guys off the breaks. Rivera is going to need to have his wrestling defense on point in this fight & can’t allow himself to get too far behind early. This being his second UFC fight, & it being in the covid era already, should help give him a bit of an advantage here.
Ali Al Qaisi
Age: 29
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: N/A
Gym: Phuket Top Team
From: Jordan
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 179
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: +155
Ali Al Qaisi will be making history before even earning a victory in the UFC. Al Qaisi will be the first fighter from Jordan to grace the octagon. He enters this spot with an 8-3 record, riding a five-fight win streak. Al Qaisi is a counter striker on the feet. He really only throws three attacks. He likes to lead with uppercuts & he will counter with the left hook or overhand right. He will throw those shots in combination as well, such as an overhand right to a left hook. Al Qaisi has good defense, he keeps a high guard, & has decent distance control. His head movement isn’t bad & he will slip & rip with punches. He does sometimes float his chin when he backs up. He also is susceptible to low kicks & body shots. He has to be careful with the body attack of Rivera. Al Qaisi isn’t trying to strike for long in his fights. His striking is a means to an end in order to get the fight to the mat. He has one KO in his career. He has never been finished by strikes & is a very tough, dogged fighter.
Ali Al Qaisi is a strong grappler. He is excellent at timing body locks & is super strong in those positions. He will just bully fighters to the mat & has good trips. On top, Al Qaisi doesn’t have the greatest top control, but he’s dangerous. He will look to progress to dominate positions & finish the fight. When fighters stand up & expose their necks, he has an excellent guillotine. I have seen Al Qaisi taken down himself. Off his back, he attacks with really quick armbars. He is a good submission grappler. He has good cardio, is risk adverse, I feel he is a pretty good fighter. Al Qaisi has four submission victories. He has been submitted one time via rear naked choke in his second pro fight.
I don’t know that either of these guys are really UFC level, but Rivera did put up a decent effort in his day notice debut. He is getting another shot here at his real weight call against newcomer Al Qaisi & this should be a much better matchup for him. However, I haven’t seen anything from him that justifies a 2-1 line here. I think he is the better striker & more likely to get a KO here, but I would say Al Qaisi is more likely to get a submission with his mean guillotine choke, & I think this fight will be pretty close if there is no finish. This is dog or pass for me, so I will lean with Al Qaisi.
Al Qaisi is my preferred play here because he is cheap, & he is a dog I am picking to win. Aside from a submission win, I don’t see him scoring highly, but we don’t need 100+ from him so I do want exposure here. I like him in all formats, but I think Rivera could knock him out in any round so not confident in the floor at all for cash games. Rivera is in play too for that KO potential, but at $8.9k we really need him to get it early for him to be on the optimal. With 20 lineups, I would think Rivera makes 0-2 for me. Neither of these guys are must plays & if you want to X them out with 20 or less I think you can get away with that. It is the first fight of the night though & I love targeting against these low-level guys on DraftKings.
Winner – Ali Al Qaisi via Split Decision
Youssef Zalal $9,300 vs Peter Barrett $6,900
Youssef Zalal
Age: 23
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 75”
Gym: FactoryX Muay Thai
From: Morocco
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 119
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -450
Youssef Zalal is keeping busy here taking his third fight in 2020 already. Zalal has made a quick impact on the UFC FW division knocking off two solid guys. At 23 years old Zalal is starting to get some buzz as a prospect & could really raise his stock with a dominant victory here. Zalal is a slick fighter with plus skills on the feet & on the mat. Zalal is a tall, lanky striker with nice movement. He is constantly switching stances with good head movement. Zalal isn’t great with the hands. He will throw the jab out there or a lead hook, uses a one-two but his defense in boxing range is bad. Zalal does have nice low kicks. He has excellent round & front kicks to the body & head. He will throw nice question mark kicks & looks to be kicking & moving until he can time level changes. He does have nasty kicks with both legs & can put fighters down with kicks. He has a nasty flying knee. Youssef is very fast & explosive. He will be the better athlete in this matchup. Zalal has two KO/TKO’s. I have seen Zalal get rocked with punches but never dropped & he recovers quickly. His striking is definitely improving.
Youssef Zalal likes to mix it up & I see him as the clearly superior wrestler in this fight. Zalal has nice level changes with single & double legs to compliment his clinch takedowns. He will shoot a jab or straight out & then duck under into the single leg. I definitely see him getting a few takedowns in this matchup. In top position, Zalal has very good control & nice ground & pound. Zalal likes to get to side control, trap a near side wrist & throw punches. He will throw heavy elbows that cut opponents open, but his main objective is getting to the back mount. Zalal will lock up very nice rear naked chokes. Zalal also will attack guillotines, darces & brabo chokes when opponents work to stand up. He has nasty front choke submissions. He did lose some grappling exchanges in his last match & gave up his back but showed good scrambling ability & superior cardio. Zalal has five submission victories & has never been finished. He has great cardio & doesn’t tire in fights.
Peter Barrett
Age: 33
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 73”
Gym: Lauzon MMA
From: Massachusetts
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 415
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +360
Peter Barrett is finally making his UFC debut after a year away from the cage. Barrett has been vocal about his frustration regarding not getting a fight, & it seems like he’s been healthy & training this whole time. Barrett has had two fights fall through during this pandemic, & I’m sure he will be chomping at the bit to get in there. Barrett isn’t a bad striker, but his movement is a little awkward. He is a southpaw & throws a lot of inside leg & body kicks. He has a good straight-left hand & likes to throw a right hook, duck under, roll through & throw a left hook. He can fall into his punches & be susceptible to counters along with lessening the power on his shots. He does throw nice right hook, left uppercut combinations with a lot of heat on the uppercut. Barrett does have decent punch combinations & will go to war. He will throw some crazy spinning attacks. In this fight I think he is going to be at a major speed disadvantage. He holds his hands down & tries to bait fighters to trade but I think that could just get him pot shotted from the outside in this one. Barrett needs to get in the clinch where he throws nasty knees & elbows & make it ugly. Barrett is more of a brawler & he is dangerous. He has seven KO/TKO finishes. He has been finished once by strikes.
Peter Barrett is not the best grappler. He is a scrappy guy & will try to mix it up. In his last fight he was able to use clinch control time, & some well-timed takedowns to win a decision. Barrett’s takedown defense is not good. He can be taken down very easily & throws a lot of naked kicks. Once Barrett is taken down, he isn’t the best. He can give up submissions & doesn’t have a good guard. His offensive wrestling just isn’t very good either, I think Zalal is the better wrestler. Peter Barrett has just two submissions against very low-level competition. Barrett is a scrapper, but he does slow down & doesn’t have the best cardio.
Barrett is making his UFC debut here & he has a real tough test in front of him in Zalal. Zalal is looking like a real solid prospect & I don’t really see how he loses this fight other than getting knocked out. Barrett likely needs to make this fight more of a brawl & hope to clip Zalal. I think Zalal is the much better overall striker though & I think he has the wrestling/grappling edge as well.
Zalal is my preferred play here for all formats but more so in cash games. I feel pretty good about him getting the win here & I like his floor, so I would try to get to him in cash games if I can. For GPPs, he might need to score 100+ & I don’t know that I see that happening, especially without a finish. Zalal ITD is +125 which is solid, so I will be getting exposure to him, I just don’t know how far off the field I will be in either direction. It will more so come down to if I can afford him or not but if I can, then I like him. Barrett is in play as well & I won’t be X’ing him out of my player pool. I will probably need more than 10 lineups before I get to him though.
Winner – Youssef Zalal via Unanimous Decision
Gavin Tucker $8,400 vs Justin Jaynes $7,800
Gavin Tucker
Age: 34
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 66”
Gym: Titans MMA
From: Canada
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 138
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -135
Gavin Tucker is making his return after a year away from the octagon. He was scheduled to fight in April, but that event was cancelled. Tucker hasn’t been able to stay active. He has fought just two times in three years. Tucker did win his last bout with Seung Woo Choi & looked pretty good. Tucker is a fighter who utilizes a ton of movement. He has good lateral movement, switches stances & is pretty explosive. He is a southpaw. Tucker has a nice jab to the body & head. He will throw nice one-twos & leaps into straight-left hands. He will leap into a lot of shots; Overhand lefts, rear uppercuts & right hooks. He will attack the body with hooks & straight punches. He has nice low kicks & good round & front kicks to the body. He will throw nice high kicks. When he’s given space, he will start to throw spinning kicks, combinations, & looks very good. He will taunt opponents & is a very intense guy. He doesn’t deal with pressure very well & will back himself up against the cage. Rick Glenn was able to cut him off, counter & hurt him in round one. When his movement slows, he gets very sloppy & wide in the pocket. Tucker uses a lot of big wide movements. Tucker does have a solid chin & has never been finished by strikes. Tucker has 4 KO/TKO’s.
Gavin Tucker was able to put his grappling to use in his last match. Tucker is a Renzo Gracie black belt, & physically strong, athletic guy. He showed off a good single leg takedown & good top control. Tucker will time body locks well. He has some pretty good knees & elbows. On top, he likes to get to the back & beat fighters up until he can lock in the choke. He has five career submissions. Tucker doesn’t have very good cardio & slows down in the third round.
Justin Jaynes
Age: 30
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 67.5”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Nevada
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 152
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: +115
Justin Jaynes leapt onto the scene with a devastating knockout victory of Frank Camacho in his UFC debut. He took the fight on very short notice, went hard very quickly & got the first-round finish. That is kind of Jaynes’ MO of late. He has won five consecutive fights via first round finish. Jaynes has twelve first round finishes overall. Jaynes likes to come forward, stay in fighters faces & counter. He has good head movement & will slip & roll while countering with big hooks. He has a nasty left hook that he will throw to the body & head. He is very good at fronting to create openings for his punches. He is very dangerous with his hooks & has one punch power. He throws some heavy low calf kicks as well. Jaynes doesn’t keep a super high output, but what he does throw is dangerous & powerful. If he catches an opponent clean in the first round, the fight is over. Jaynes has 8 KO/TKO’s all happened in round one. Jaynes has never been finished. He has pretty good head movement, is hard to hit, & can take a shot if he needs to.
Justin Jaynes is a strong grappler. He is a former college wrestler & has solid Jiu-Jitsu as well. He likes to strike, but when he wants to he can duck under & hit a double leg. On top he has good control & good back taking ability. He will rain down big ground & pound & look for the finish. Jaynes’ takedown defense is pretty solid. He has a nasty guillotine & front head lock position in general. He will snap fighters down & control them from there. He is good at using the guillotine to sweep to mount. This fight is going to be at FW, so I imagine he is going to be a load. Even when Jaynes gets taken down, he’s pretty proficient with sweeps & get-ups. Justin Jaynes is a veteran & has a lot of experience. He has great cardio, a fun style & is a very dangerous guy. Jaynes has five submission victories.
Jaynes is coming off a huge upset KO victory on days’ notice in his UFC debut. That fight was up a weight class & now he is making the drop to 145 where he will be the bigger guy. I think he will be the fighter with more power & he could be the better wrestler as well. Tucker is going to be the faster, slicker striker though & I could see him landing some takedowns as well. I think Jaynes is going to be a popular underdog this week, so I would wait on this line & see if you can get Tucker closer to even odds, but I like Tucker as the more skilled fighter & think he wins this fight more than not.
I expect Jaynes to be a popular dog this week & that makes me like him less. I think he is a fine play in all formats, especially if you are picking him. I just don’t see the early KO from him again & aside from that, there wasn’t anything special about this guy that made me want to pick him here. I am going to go underweight to him & with 20 or less I might even get ballsy & fade him. I do want some Tucker though & I think he could get a submission win here. I don’t see him scoring 100+ again though so he isn’t a must at all, but I would rather get leverage to him over Jaynes & I think Tucker goes underowned.
Winner – Gavin Tucker via Unanimous Decision
Wellington Turman $8,500 vs Andrew Sanchez $7,700
Wellington Turman
Age: 24
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 72”
Gym: Gile Ribeiro Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 73
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -155
Wellington Turman has been impressive so far in his UFC career. He has had only two fights but beat a solid veteran in Markus Perez in his last bout. In his debut in the UFC, he had a controversial decision loss with Karl Roberson. At just twenty-four years old Turman is a very solid prospect. Turman needs to go forward & be aggressive in this fight. In his fight with Perez, he did show some improved striking. He was closing the gap with hard straights. He throws a nice front kick up the middle. He will leap in with nice left hooks & overhand rights. He will throw kicks after he punches like left hooks into head kicks. He has nice body kicks also, but they don’t look super powerful. He looks very open & hittable to me. He’s a bit stiff as a striker. His defense is lacking & relies on offense to hide his flaws. He is a terminator with an excellent chin though & stays in opponents faces. He was able to wear on Markus Perez in his last fight with forward pressure. Turman doesn’t really have big power with only 4 career knockouts. He has never been finished.
Wellington Turman is a grinder. He likes to use his striking to back fighters up to the cage, get the body lock & take them down. He likes to take the back from standing & just lean & wear on opponents. He is very strong in the clinch. When Turman gets takedowns, he is a back taking specialist. He is always hunting the back & has a few rear naked choke victories. Turman has a nice guillotine he will catch from standing or when he’s on top. Karl Roberson was able to turn in when Turman took the back & controlled Turman for a couple minutes. Turman didn’t look like he had a very good game off his back. In this fight, I believe he’s going to struggle to get the takedowns. Turman does have seven submission victories. He has great cardio which is his best trait.
Andrew Sanchez
Age: 32
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 76”
Gym: Tristar Gym
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 4-3
Fight Matrix: 60
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +135
Andrew Sanchez lost in a grudge match his last time out against Marvin Vettori. There was a lot of talking going on prior to that fight, & he didn’t perform well. Sanchez has been up & down in his UFC career, having some good moments & some bad ones. I feel like this is a make or break fight for Sanchez’s career going forward. Andrew Sanchez has been making improvements. His fight with Vettori was pretty competitive. Andrew Sanchez is a pretty athletic fighter with good forward pressure & fluid movement. He likes to feint as he comes forward, back his opponents up & use his boxing. He has a sharp jab & a good one-two. He will throw nice one-two, one combinations. Sanchez has a nice check left hook. When he can back fighters to the cage, he will land nice multi-punch boxing combinations to the body & head. Sanchez likes to touch more with his punches & then mix in harder shots. He will mix in some kicks. He has nice front kicks to the body. He will throw some nice round & question mark kicks to the head. He likes to pull fighters into spinning backfists & has pretty good timing on them. Sanchez is hittable himself. He likes to use a high guard to defend shots instead of moving his head or using footwork. He tends to just cover up against the cage & take shots on his guard. Sanchez is susceptible to body shots due to this. Markus Perez really worked his body well in their fight. He is a durable guy & can take a shot. He has been taken out three times by strikes, but mostly due to exhaustion.
Andrew Sanchez is a fantastic grappler. He is a two-time NAIA national champion wrestler, & a purple belt in Jiu-Jitsu. Sanchez hasn’t been super active offensively with his wrestling since earlier in his UFC career. If you go back & look at his old fights, he was able to take down Khalil Rountree six times & control him & took Anthony Smith down several times. Sanchez likes to maul fighters against the cage & slow the pace of the fight. When he gets on top, he has good top control & ground & pound. Sanchez has two rear naked choke wins. His takedown defense has been perfect so far in the UFC. He has never been taken down. Wellington Turman is definitely going to test that. Obviously, we haven’t gotten to see Sanchez off his back in the UFC. Sanchez has improved his cardio & paces himself much better now.
I think Turman is the one with the higher ceiling in the UFC, but this is a close matchup & a tough one for him stylistically. Turman is a grinder who likes to wrestle guys & that is Sanchez’s game as well, & he might be the better wrestler. I also think Sanchez will be the one more active on the feet & he can win there as well. His gas tank is always a real worry & during the pandemic it makes him even harder to trust. However, I think Sanchez will be able to do enough to win two rounds here, so I will take him to win what I believe is a 50/50 fight. I do think Turman is more likely to get the finish though.
I do not love either side of this fight, but my preferred play is Sanchez. I think Turman needs a finish to score highly here so if you think he gets it then you should go overweight on him. I don’t, so I will be going underweight. Sanchez could get 10x or more in a decision though, so I do want some exposure to him & I like him in all formats. He has never scored 100 in his career, & I don’t expect that from him here, but I do think he could get 75-85 in a decision win here & I will take that on this card.
Winner – Andrew Sanchez via Split Decision
Nasrat Haqparast $9,000 vs Alex Munoz $7,200
Nasrat Haqparast
Age: 24
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 72”
Gym: Tristar Gym
From: Germany
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 89
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -235
Nasrat Haqparast once again enters a sizeable favorite on the ML against Alex Munoz. Haqparast is going to have a big experience edge here, & it makes sense he’s the favorite. Haqparast has over double the amount of fights Munoz has, & almost as many UFC fights (5) as Munoz has total fights (6). He needs to bounce back from that bad loss to Drew Dober, & this is a good spot here. Nasrat has shown big explosiveness & power over his UFC career. He walks opponents down while throwing stabbing front kicks to the body & constantly looking for the overhand left. Haqparast is a southpaw with nice feints & really can close a lot of distance with his punches. He will explode into range with overhand lefts that hurt opponents time & time again. It was that shot that dropped & led to the finish of Joaquim Silva. He will occasionally change the overhand to a straight. Haqparast has very fast hand speed & when he can get opponents moving backwards & land his jab, he will attack to the body & head with fluid punching combos. At range, he really relies heavily on the overhand left & front kick. Thibault Gouti was able to back him up keep the jab in his face & force Nasrat into throwing the overhand where he would pull counter. Nasrat’s defense going backwards isn’t great. He really will just back up with a high guard & look to explode counter & back opponents off. Fighters who are composed & able to pull counter while maintaining distance & pushing him back I see giving him problems. He was able to bail himself out against Gouti by hurting him in multiple rounds & his power is serious. To beat Nasrat on the feet fighters will need to be very durable, control range & the center & back him up. Haqparast definitely has killer instinct & when he hurts opponents, he will go for the kill. He has 9 KO/TKO’s. He was knocked out for the first time in his career in his last fight.
Nasrat Haqparast hasn’t shown off his grappling game in the UFC, but I would say it’s underrated. He has been training with the Olympian Mark O Madsen on his wrestling this camp & has to know he needs his wrestling on point to win this fight. Early in Nasrat’s career he used a lot of offensive wrestling. He would take fighters down & smash them on the mat. In the UFC he has just one takedown. In his fight with Marcin Held, he was taken down three times & controlled on the mat. Marcin Held maybe isn’t the greatest fighter, but he is a very good black belt. Held was able to get takedowns against the cage & in the scrambles. Haqparast in space showed a great sprawl, got his hips back & stuffed takedowns very easily. He is good at getting underhooks, framing away & getting out. When Nasrat is going forward & pressuring or in the center of the octagon, he is very hard to takedown. Haqparast was able to get a takedown of his own in the clinch with a throw as well. That was ultimately a mistake which led to another takedown from Held after he created a scramble with a leg entanglement. When Nasrat was on bottom, he really didn’t do bad. He was able to regain guard & retain guard for the most part. Haqparast was able to trap Held’s arm & nullify him for large portions when he was on top. He also stayed very calm in defending the leg locks attempted by Held.
Alex Munoz
Age: 30
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: N/A
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: California
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 155
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: +195
Alex Munoz will be making his long-awaited UFC debut after nearly a year away from the cage. Munoz last performed in October of 2019, defeating Troy Lamson by decision. Munoz’s most high-profile fight to date was his victory over Nick Newell on the Dana White Contender Series. Munoz was supposed to make his debut in February vs Luis Pena, but an injury has cost him six months on the sidelines. Inactivity has been a staple of Munoz’s career as he has had only six fights in 5 years. Hopefully now that he’s in the UFC he will be more active. Alex Munoz is a very athletic fighter. On the feet, he likes to use a lot of movement & switches stances pretty well. He primarily is a southpaw & throws a lot of one shot attacks. He likes to shoot the straight-left to the body & head. He will throw the overhand left. Munoz will throw some nice lead right hooks. Munoz has some heavy body kicks he throws as well. He is low volume though & only throws one shot at a time. He drops his hands & can back up with his hands down. Alex Munoz usually relies on his wrestling to win him fights, but in his match with Troy Lamson last time out, he was able to out strike him. Lamson has good speed & counters. He doesn’t really have big power with just two KO/TKO victories.
Alex Munoz is a strong grappler & former division one college wrestler. He is good at using his striking game to pull fighters into double legs. He has nice body lock takedowns & will duck under & take the back. On top, Munoz is not very dangerous. He doesn’t have the greatest top control either. He is good when he can take the back. He doesn’t really like to put the hooks in but will just ride fighters out. In his fight with Nick Newell, he was able to grind on him in that position, have control & score points. He will open up with ground & pound if he thinks his opponent is hurt or fading. He has just one career submission & isn’t very dangerous on top. Munoz showed good takedown defense vs Lamson. Munoz faded pretty badly in his last fight with Troy Lamson. He was visibly tired in the third round & left a lot of opportunities for Lamson to touch that chin. Munoz is still very raw, but he does have a wrestling advantage & will need to lean on that in order to get the victory.
Munoz is an undefeated 6-0 prospect making his UFC debut here. Haqparast is coming off a brutal KO loss at the beginning of the year, but I don’t think he has to worry about that much here because I do give him a big edge on the feet. Munoz is going to need to use his wrestling to get the win here & I think Nasrat is too good to let him do that consistently. I think Munoz could be pretty good, so I don’t know that I can line Haqparast higher than 70% so I don’t think there is any value in the current line, but I will take him to win.
Nasrat is my preferred play here but I will be on both sides. Either side could pay off their salary in a decision win, but I think both guys could finish as well. This is probably a fight that I will look to get in close to half my lineups but more so on the Nasrat side. I think he is too fast & good on the feet for Munoz & if this fight stays standing I think he scores well. If this is a back & forth fight, then I think it would be hard for Nasrat to pay off $9k but that is why it isn’t an all-in fight for me.
Winner – Nasrat Haqparast via Unanimous Decision
Kevin Holland vs Joaquin Buckley
Kevin Holland
Age: 27
Height: 6’3
Weight: 185
Reach: 81”
Gym: Phalanx MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 43
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -440
Kevin Holland is trying to finally get a second fight in during the Covid era. After two failed bids, one literally as they were supposed to walk to the octagon I’m sure he is a caged animal ready to unleash. Holland is a dynamic athlete with a great frame for the division. He does a good job of staying long. He has a nice jab, good one-twos & his straight-right hand is accurate. He has a nice check left hook. He will throw long hooks & slaps as well. He will throw jabs & straight-right hands to the body. He lunges in with a lot of his punches & is fast in & out. He can leave his chin high with his hands down. He will also lean back at times & uses that tall man type defense. He is very good with his kicks. He has nice leg kicks. He will attack with inside/outside leg kicks, & oblique kicks to the knees. He has a very good lead leg. He will throw a lot of lead leg, hook kicks to the body & head. He has nice round kicks & heavy rear leg front kicks to the body. He will throw a front kick to a straight-right hand combination. He did a great job of targeting the body of John Phillips with front kicks, hurting him multiple times. When he gets pressured, he will open up with jump knees. He will mix in lead elbows in close range. He is very good at keeping a high guard & rolling with shots in close range. He will let his opponents hit his guard & then try to time elbows & shots in between their combos. It is a bit dangerous because he isn’t moving & there is always the chance the right shot slips through the guard & hurts him. Overall, he is excellent at fighting long & is an awkward puzzle to solve. He can allow himself to get backed up against the cage & become more defensive than offensive if an opponent has power. He will also throw shots like little jabs or non-power shots when he is too close to his opponent & gets countered with bigger shots. He does have a great chin & will talk to opponents & get confidence off taking their shots. After he gets hit, he can get emotional, & walk forward with his hands down. He definitely is at his best, when he is feinting with the lead leg, & using it to set up his punches & going forward himself. He has 6 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished with strikes.
Kevin Holland is a good grappler. He is a black belt under Dean Lister. He has solid body locks & good G&P. He was able to get two nice double legs in his last match, but that was against a fighter with no grappling. Overall, he doesn’t look to go for takedowns much or to work in the clinch. He will throw the occasional clinch elbow or knee. He will look to get standing guillotines. He will also go for flying armbars & triangles. On top, he will throw hard punches standing in opponent’s guards due to his length & can land elbows. He will look to use his length to pass into dominant positions & get the mount or back. He was able to get a rear naked choke in his last win. He is dangerous with submissions. He has a nasty guillotine, good triangles & leg locks. He will sweep with omaplatas. He will attack with kimuras. He is active on top or off his back. Holland’s takedown defense is terrible. He is taken down in the clinch or with wrestling shots far too easily. He does have the ability to get out of deep submissions & scrambles well. Holland in his last fight was actually dominating the striking & winning on the ground but he gassed out. He has 6 submissions & only been submitted one time.
Joaquin Buckley
Age: 26
Height: 5’10
Weight: 185
Reach: 73”
Gym: Finneys HIT Squadb
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 130
Last Fought: 2 Weeks
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +350
Joaquin Buckley is making his debut here on short notice. He is fresh off a second-round knockout victory to win the LFA title last Friday. He will be in shape, confident & ready to go. Buckley is a brash 26-year-old who likes to scrap & talk trash in there. He is a very big, explosive, muscular, athletic guy with one shot power. He likes to fight low, use head movement & feints, cut angles & try to be shifty. Buckley likes to shoot the straight to the body & head. He will close the distance with powerful straight punches or hooks. Buckley likes to get inside, back opponents up, & then flurry with shots when they’re against the cage. He has fast hands & short-range power in his hooks. Buckley will leap into range with hooks & uppercuts. He will throw some front kicks up the middle. He keeps heavy pressure & doesn’t mind trading in the pocket. He is choppy with his footwork though, & hittable himself. He isn’t the best defensively. He can struggle vs fighters who can kick well like a Kevin Holland. Buckley does have seven career KO’s & can turn fighters’ lights out. He’s been finished with punches one time.
Joaquin Buckley looks like a decent wrestler. He can time some nice level changes. Buckley has pretty solid takedown defense as well. He is hard to takedown especially against the cage & has improved his get-ups. His Jiu-Jitsu is not even close to the level of Holland’s though, & he is really lacking in that area. I believe if this fight hits the mat that Holland could very easily find the submission. Buckley kind of reminds me of a smaller Alonzo Menifield; Short, compact & explosive for the division, has power, & can close the gap, but just isn’t very skilled. His gas tank is better than Menifield’s, but he falls short in a lot of areas.
Holland was supposed to fight last weekend, but his opponent passed out back stage before his walk out. He wanted to fight this week, so they brought in Buckley to make his short notice UFC debut. Buckley is a shorter, powerhouse looking guy. He doesn’t look bad, but I don’t see him having any advantages here over Holland aside from strength & power. I think Holland probably cruises here & can win with a TKO, submission, or decision.
Holland is my favorite play on the card & he is a core play for me this week. I want him in more than half my lineups this week & if I was making 5 or less I would go all-in. Holland has a -177 ITD line & I think he can get that finish on the feet or the ground. I want as much Holland as I can afford but I could also see him fooling around & just coasting to a decision win, & that won’t cut it as the highest priced guy on the card. Buckley will likely be a fade for me unless I am making 50 or more lineups. I think he has to get a KO to win, & if he does, he is on the nuts. I just don’t’ see it happening.
Winner – Kevin Holland via 1st round Submission
Laureano Staropoli $8,300 vs Tim Means $7,900
Laureano Staropoli
Age: 27
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: Invictus MMA
From: Argentina
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 83
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -140
Laureano is looking to get back on the horse following a disappointing performance vs Muslim Salikhov. He was dominated for three rounds dropping a decision. Staropoli is the favorite coming in here versus Means. Staropoli is light on his feet with good movement & very athletic. In his match with Thiago Alves, he was able to move use kicks & straight punches to keep Alves on the outside. He will switch stances & is light in & out. He has a nice jab & a very nice one-two. He will throw a jab, left hook or a left hook, straight-right hand combination. He will wain forward with heavy hooks in combination. He will throw a one-two to a leg kick combination. He will go to the body & head with hook combinations & mix in uppercuts. He will throw spinning backfists & flying knees. He will throw spinning backfists into round kicks to the body or head. He is athletic & always tries to counter back when someone throws on him. Staropoli will throw a lot of jumping kicks to the body & head. Staropoli doesn’t have one punch power & is more of a volume fighter. He does have 5 KO/TKO’s in 9 wins. Staropoli was knocked out in his one loss.
Laureano Staropoli is a questionable grappler. In this matchup, I don’t see either fighter going for a takedown. Staropoli has 0 takedown attempts in his two UFC fights. Staropoli was taken down in round 3 by Thiago Alves but was able to quickly move back to his feet & disengage. I don’t think Staropoli will have to defend any takedowns or attempts any himself. It could be a smart game plan to try to implement some takedowns, but I don’t think he has the skill set to do so. Means isn’t super easy to take down. Staropoli has 2 submissions in 9 wins. He has never been submitted. Staropoli is a young, confident fighter with good cardio. He throws a ton of volume & can keep a high pace for three rounds.
Tim Means
Age: 36
Height: 6’2
Weight: 170
Reach: 75”
Gym: Fit NHB
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 9-7-1
Fight Matrix: 77
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +120
Tim Means is desperate for a victory here. He has been finished in two of his last three & looks on the way out. Tim Means is a very sharp striker. He has a long reach but is also nasty in close range. Means has nice one-twos & front kicks to the body. He will throw one-twos & right straights to the body as well. He throws hard low & oblique kicks to the legs. Means has a very accurate lead & counter left hook. He has a sharp counter right hook as well. He throws straight-right, left uppercut combinations. He has a nice step-in knee. He has good head movement & slips & rips very effectively. He will throw uppercut, overhand left combinations. He has nice high kicks. He keeps a high volume of punches out there, doubling & tripling up on jabs. Means does a good job of changing the speed of his punches, & peppering fighters & mixing in faster, more powerful punches. He wears fighters out with pressure. Tim Means does like to stick in the pocket & fight in a danger zone. He is very comfortable slipping & ripping using elbows, knees & short-range shots & winning the inside game. In his last match that cost him as he got caught & knocked out in a fight he was dominating. He has only been finished twice by strikes & has notoriously had a great chin. Means has 19 KO/TKO’s.
Tim Means is nasty in the dirty boxing range, he has short hooks, uppercuts & slicing elbows. He throws nice knees to the body. He does a great job of using underhooks to defend takedowns & put fighters on their backs. He will also attack with guillotines. He did that against Belal Muhammad & almost rolled into mount but was stopped by the cage. He has good double leg & body lock takedowns. On top, he does a great job of posturing & throwing hard elbows & punches. He was able to takedown Ricky Rainey early & landed some brutal G&P for the finish. He tends to shoot takedowns when he gets hurt & can be submitted that way. He has good arm triangles but doesn’t look for submissions very much. In this fight, I do think mixing it up could be a smart game plan. Means has 4 career submissions. He has been submitted 4 times.
This one might come down to how diminished Means is. He looked pretty bad in his last fight & he is 36 years old now. Staropoli is probably going to make this a war on the feet so he could clip Means & put him away here. I just think Means is the better striker & a lot more experienced, so I think he has the better chance of winning a decision & he could also put Staropoli away as well.
Means is my preferred play here. Means has 3 wins with 100 or more DK points & he even has 75 in a loss. I like him as an underdog in all formats here & if his chin holds up I think he has a high floor & ceiling. I will look to be overweight on Means this week & I think he is cash playable as well. Staropoli is in play as well but I think we need a KO for him to be on the optimal. That is very possible & if you think it happens you should go overweight to him. I will likely be underweight to him though & I would think he makes 10-15% of my lineups.
Winner – Tim Means via 2nd round (T)KO
Beneil Dariush $9,100 vs Scott Holtzman $7,300
Beneil Dariush
Age: 31
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 72”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Iran
UFC Record: 12-4-1
Fight Matrix: 15
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -185
Beneil Dariush has gotten back to his winning ways & looks better than ever. He had a back & forth slug fest & epic knockout over Drakkar Klose his last time out. Dariush is a dangerous out for anyone in the division & will be out to prove it once again. Beneil Dariush is a good pressure striker. He has a nice jab, & a strong body kick. He has a nice straight-left hand & a good left hook. He closes distance very well with his punches. He likes to use a jab or straight-left hand to head kick combination. He has nice superman punches & spinning backfists. He is more of a counter striker, & he likes to anticipate shots, block & return. He has nice step-in knees to the body. He has big power but only 4 finishes via strikes. He has a questionable chin. He got flatlined very badly against Edson Barboza, & most recently knocked out in less than 30 seconds. He has been finished 3 times by KO/TKO. He bounced back in a dominating way in his last match & has to have more confidence coming in here.
Dariush is a very strong grappler. He is a BJJ competitor & black belt. He is good in the clinch, he does an excellent job of getting the Muay Thai plum & landing big knees. He does a great job of digging underhooks & is strong with his clinch control against the cage. He has strong clinch takedowns & will shoot doubles against the cage. He was able to dominate Thiago Moises by controlling him against the cage & taking him down in his last fight. He is an elite BJJ player & on top is very dangerous. He throws heavy elbows & huge ground & pound. He also is a black belt & has won the no Gi world championships as a blue, purple, & brown belt. He is very hard to takedown or control in the clinch himself but does get tired in grappling heavy matches & can start to get grinded out. He has good arm triangles & rear naked chokes. He had been submitted one time in his career. He is solid off his back & will attack with omaplata sweeps & is active with subs. Dariush finished his last match with a very nice submission. Dariush has 8 submissions & has been submitted one time. Dariush has good cardio & can push hard for three or five rounds.
Scott Holtzman
Age: 36
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 69”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Tennessee
UFC Record: 7-3
Fight Matrix: 25
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +160
Scott Holtzman is finally getting to try his hand at these higher ranked guys. He passed the Jim Miller test his last time out, & if he can take out Dariush that will be a huge statement. Holtzman is a fairly athletic fighter & will have a speed advantage in this fight. Holtzman walks opponents down & has solid in & out movement. He will throw nice inside leg kicks & has a good straight-left hand. He will throw left hooks also. He will throw a straight- left hand, overhand right or straight-right combination. He does a good job of throwing counter check left hooks or counter straight-right hands. In the past, he could stay in the pocket too long throwing lazy, touching shots & get countered with a power punch. He does have nice uppercuts in close range, & when he backs opponents towards the cage he will swarm with hook, uppercut combinations. He has good front kicks to the body & head. He will also throw nice round kicks to the head. He does a good job of feinting kicks to set up his punches. He likes to close the distance when fighters are against the cage with flying knees & flying jump kicks. He has a strong chin & can recover quickly. In his last match, he was dropped by stupidly trading in the pocket, but was able to rally to finish his opponent. He has solid power with 4 KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished.
Scott Holtzman is very physical for the division & a strong grappler. He has great double leg takedowns. He has good timing on them & has a strong drive. He can pick fighters up & slam them. He will grab a single leg, & drive opponents to the cage then turn it to a double leg. He has good body lock takedowns also & is strong in the clinch. On top, he has good ground & pound elbows & solid top control. He dropped Alan Patrick, took the mount & finished him with nasty ground & pound. He has above average takedown defense & is hard to hold down. When fighters take him down, he does a great job of popping back up. He can be taken down against the cage with double legs. He was controlled in the clinch & taken down with some body locks against the fence vs Nik Lentz. He lost the fight largely because he couldn’t get off the cage, but Lentz is an excellent grinder. He isn’t much of a submission threat with only 2 in his career. He did show great cardio in his last match being the fresher fighter late & finishing the fight. Holtzman is I I think the more durable as well & if he wants to make the fight a war & trade, he probably will win that. Holtzman has two career submissions & has never been submitted. He is facing a submission specialist who is going to try to test that.
I have been going back & forth on this one. I think Dariush has a big edge on the ground here, but Holtzman might be the better wrestler so maybe he can stuff takedowns & keep this standing. I think either guy could get a KO but on the feet is where Holzman has a chance. I think he will be the one pushing forward & landing a bit more volume & I could see him rocking Dariush in any round. I think Holtzman is very live if this fight stays standing but I think the line is right because of Dariush’s ground advantage, so I will lean with him to get a submission.
Dariush is my preferred play here with his +125 ITD line. Holtzman ITD is +450 so that makes me like him less, but he is a dog that can win, & he does score well in wins. I like both guys in this fight & this will be one that probably makes about half of my lineups. I would think I will be around 30-35% Dariush & 20-25% Holtzman. I think Dariush would be the only one of the two I would want in cash games though & he would be the only one I targeted if I was making 3 or less lineups.
Winner – Beneil Dariush via 2nd round Submission
Yana Kunitskaya $8,800 vs Julija Stoliarenko $7,400
Yana Kunitskaya
Age: 30
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 68.5”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Russia
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 13
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -235
Yana Kunitskaya is looking to rebound in this spot after a disappointing loss to Aspen Ladd. Ladd finished Kunitskaya in the third round. Kunitskaya has been decent at 135 in the UFC & will be looking to run her record to 3-1 in the division. Yana Kunitskaya is a big, athletic girl for the division. She has a quick jab & nice front kick to the body. She will jab to the body & has nice right hooks. She will throw lead left hooks. She will throw round kicks to the body. She will throw nice spinning back kicks to the body & head. She will also throw spinning backfists. When she throws her punches, she drops her hands & can get hit clean. She can get hit with straight punches & overhands. She seems very timid once she gets hit & was decimated by Cyborg. She does a lot of reaching for the clinch instead of setting up her entries with shots. If she does that often in this match, she is going to be made to pay for it. Kunitskaya has 7 KO/TKO’s overall. She has a fairly good chin & has just been finished one time by Cyborg.
Kunitskaya is a much better grappler than striker & very physically strong. She is very good in the clinch. She will land hard knees to the body. She has good control against the cage & will win rounds by landing short shots & having control against the cage. She does a good job of getting a far side underhook & dumping her opponent right into side control. She will look to get to the crucifix position & looks for punches & elbows. She has good head & arm throws & body locks. She has a nice low single as well. She keeps heavy pressure on top. She does a good job of pressure passing to side control & jumping on the back when opponents try to stand up. She isn’t great at securing position on the back & usually her opponents are able to escape to the feet. When she was put on her back by Tonya Evinger, she showed a very nice bottom game. She is very aggressive with her guard & will attack with not only elbows but submissions. She has a nasty armbar that she caught Tonya Evinger with in their first fight. She does a great job of when she goes for an armbar, she hooks the fighters’ leg, & then if she cannot get the armbar she will start to attack with a heel hook or sweep to top position. She is very calm on her back & doesn’t take much damage if she is in her guard. Being so aggressive does come with risks, if she cannot get the submission or sweep fighters are able to transition to strong positions, such as Tonya Evinger being able to survive the submission attempts & then ultimately take the back & get a rear naked choke. Kunitskaya only has one career submission & has been submitted two times.
Julija Stoliarenko
Age: 27
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: Fighter House
From: Lithuania
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 16
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: +195
Julija Stoliarenko is getting a second chance in the UFC after struggling on the Ultimate Fighter. Stoliarenko was able to string five consecutive wins together since then, most recently defeating a 5-0 opponent in Invicta FC. Stoliarenko is a dog. She is willing to walk through fire to get the win by any means necessary. She has competed in bare knuckle boxing & lethwei where they allow headbutts. Julija is a super aggressive, wild striker. She will close the distance with hard straights & overhands. She has some wild kicks she will throw. Julija does have really nice elbows. She slices faces open with the elbows. Her last match was one of the bloodiest fights I’ve seen in WMMA. Julija is willing to brawl & take a shot to give a shot. She keeps a high pace. Julija is very hittable, & just darts in with her hands down & no regard for defense. She is super tough, but she was TKO’d twice early in her career. Julija has never finished a fight via strikes.
Julija Stoliarenko is an armbar specialist. She is a brown belt in Jiu-Jitsu & very aggressive. She is always looking for the armbar. She will hit flying armbars from very unusual positions. She has no issue going to her back, & fighters don’t feel comfortable staying on top of her usually. Stoliarenko is going to be the better grappler here & I could see her hitting the armbar. She has finished eight of her nine wins that way. Stoliarenko is fresh off a five-round title fight, & while she does slow down at times, she gets second winds. I do think she is the tougher of the two ladies.
Julija is making her UFC debut here on short notice. She is an armbar specialist with 8 armbar victories on her record. She is also very aggressive while on the feet & she has some mean elbows. I think Yana is the better striker, but she will need to keep this fight at range. Yana could also have success with ground & pound, but I don’t think it would be smart to go to the ground & risk being armbarred, so I would think it is Julija that would be the one looking to get the fight to the mat. I am going to go with Yana as my pick since she had the training camp, but I wouldn’t lay over 2-1 on her & I would probably rather take a shot on the underdog at this point.
I am picking Yana to win this fight but Julija is my preferred play. I don’t think Yana has a great chance of scoring highly in a win & at $8.8k I don’t even know that she gets to 10x. Julija at $7.4k is a play that I think we will need if she wins. She is aggressive & most likely would win by armbar, so I think she is a good GPP play for that potential outcome. Julija has a +322 ITD line as the underdog compared to +329 for Yana as the favorite. I won’t X Yana out of my player pool, but I won’t force her into any lineups either. Julija is a play I want to be overweight on though, not because I think she wins, but because I think she scores well if she does.
Winner – Yana Kunitskaya via Unanimous Decision
Darren Stewart $8,600 vs Maki Pitolo $7,600
Darren Stewart
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: MMA Clinic
From: England
UFC Record: 4-4-1
Fight Matrix: 59
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -155
Darren Stewart was awful his last time out. He got grinded out by a 170 lber in just an all-around bad performance. He needs to put on a better showing here. Stewart is a very athletic, explosive guy. He is mostly a counter striker & not very high volume. He has a very nice, powerful jab & heavy low kicks. He knocked Eric Spicely down with the jab & took Bevon Lewis off his feet with several leg kicks. Stewart has a nice, pull counter straight-right hand & always is looking for the counter right hook, left hook combination. Stewart has a very nice lead uppercut, right hook combination. Stewart can sometimes mix in spinning backfists & jumping kicks. His power & speed seems to back some fighters off & make them hesitant to throw. Stewart has to be able to control the pace of the fight with his power. Stewart has won 7 fights via KO/TKO.
Darren Stewart isn’t a great grappler. This isn’t a wrestling match though. Stewart has proven to be extremely dangerous in the clinch. Stewart has big short-range power, & devastating elbows & knees. He put Charles Byrd out with a nasty elbow. Stewart will need to be opportunistic in this fight & if he’s sees an opportunity in the clinch, he should take it. Stewart can be controlled in the clinch & touched up himself. When he fought Edmen Shahbazyan, Edmen was able to control him with a tight waist against the fence for multiple minutes. Edmen was able to duck under the big swinging shots of Stewart, clinch up & push him to the fence. Stewart smothers his work & always finds himself in the clinch. He is too comfortable being controlled in the over/under position or against the fence. Stewart can be taken down with singles & doubles against the cage & in space. He is pretty good at standing up with the help of the cage & is hard to hold down. Against Bartosz Fabinski he kept getting mat returned, but he won’t have to worry about that here. Stewart can give his back to stand up & was submitted by Karl Roberson with a rear naked choke. Stewart was in a war with Julian Marquez where he panic wrestled & got caught in a guillotine & submitted.
Maki Pitolo
Age: 29
Height: 5’9
Weight: 186
Reach: 75”
Gym: West Oahu MMA
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 113
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +135
Maki Pitolo was able to get a nice upset win his last time out. He took out Charles Byrd by KO. Pitolo is looking to gain momentum at 185 where he is confident. Maki Pitolo is going to be the much faster, more technical striker. Pitolo has much better footwork, more fluid in his movements with better feints & fakes. He has a nasty jab & a great one two. He has nice inside, outside leg kicks. He has an excellent jab to the body. He has an excellent left hook as well. He is good at touching opponents with jabs & short hooks, & then mixing in power shots. Sometimes fighters can land hooks or overhands to counter his jab, & he can get clipped a bit when he’s forced to move backwards. Pitolo will turn up & throw long combinations when he finds his range. He is excellent at using good shot selection. He will attack the body & has excellent uppercut, hook combos. He finished Justin Sumter, a big 185 lber with brutal body shots. He will mix in spinning backfists, flying knees & elbows when he backs opponents near the cage. Pitolo’s ability to put combinations together with his hands should do him very well here. If Pitolo just touches Stewart as he tries to get inside the big shots will come. Pitolo can get hurt, he doesn’t have an elite chin. He can be a little bit reckless at times & slows down in the later rounds. In the fights he’s been stunned, he’s been fighting much bigger men. Pitolo has been KO/TKO’d twice. Pitolo has 6 KO/TKO’s himself.
Maki Pitolo isn’t a bad wrestler & will look to mix it up. In this fight, I would look to just keep it on the feet, avoid wrestling & the clinch. Pitolo does use his longer combos to back opponents up where he will shoot singles & doubles. Pitolo has nice, reactive shots at range also. In top position, Pitolo is almost exclusively a back taker. He won’t throw much ground & pound but looks to pass aggressively & eventually take the back. Pitolo has solid control on the back & will attack with rear naked chokes. He has two rear naked choke victories in his 3 submission wins. Pitolo can get shucked off the back & was submitted by Dakota Cochrane in a scramble with a guillotine. If Pitolo can just keep it on the feet at range, he should have a big advantage. Pitolo has three submissions & has been submitted twice.
I do think Stewart has more ways to win this fight, but the 2-1 line is too high IMO. Stewart is mainly a striker & I don’t think he has that big of an edge on the feet. Pitolo wants this fight to stay standing & he might have more power in his hands. I could also see him landing more volume as well, so I think this line should be closer to 50/50. I will lean with the underdog here & I think he can get it done by knockout or decision.
Pitolo is my preferred play here but I like both sides of this fight. I think either fighter could get a KO, but I think Pitolo throws harder & with more volume, so he is the guy I would rather target. This is another fight where I think I get 50% or more exposure as a whole but Pitolo is closer to a core play, where I might be in line with the field on Stewart. I would rather target this fight in GPPs, but I think Pitolo is a fine cash game underdog as well. FDGTD is -165 though so this is one of the better fights on the card to target.
Winner – Maki Pitolo via Split Decision
Omari Akhmedov $8,200 vs Chris Weidman $8,000
Omari Akhmedov
Age: 32
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 73”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Russia
UFC Record: 8-3-1
Fight Matrix: 12
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +115
Omari Akhmedov is getting the opportunity of his career. He is set to face the former UFC world champion Chris Weidman. If Akhmedov can win this fight, he will establish himself as a top ten fighter. Akhmedov is a solid striker. He can strike going forward or backwards. He likes to use lateral movement & walk opponents into leg kicks, hooks & overhands. He throws pretty nasty inside low kicks & will wing dangerous hooks & overhands. He has a pretty good straight-right hand as well. When Akhmedov goes forward, he doesn’t throw a lot of variety, but a lot of volume. He will come forward throwing big, looping hooks. It’s a Russian style striking, big, casting hooks to close a lot of distance. He does a good job of using his lead hand to gauge distance & then leaping into them. He has a nice straight-right hand, left hook combination. He will attack the body as well with straights & hooks. When he goes forward & gets confidence, he will get very aggressive. He has some good body kicks & throws front kicks to the face. His defense isn’t the best. When he’s in the pocket, he throws a lot of wide shots. Opponents are able to counter him with tighter, straight punches. When he gets hit, he will just back up in a straight line. Marvin Vettori was able to put together some long punching combinations by just continuing to pressure forward. Akhmedov can be low output at times & just try to pot shit from the outside. He can allow opponents to control the center & throw more volume especially in the later rounds. He has been stunned & knocked out in the past but is very durable. He can take a lot of damage & has big heart. When he gets stunned, he will plant his feet & trade. He is actually very dangerous when he’s hurt. Akhmedov has been TKO’d in his two UFC losses. He throws hard & if he connects opponents are in trouble. He has 7 KO/TKO’s including 2 in the UFC.
Omari Akhmedov is a strong grappler. He doesn’t have the cardio or top game to grind for three rounds so he wrestles in spots. In his last fight with Tim Boetsch, he did have good clinch control. He was able to dig double underhooks & control the bigger fighter. He landed some nice shoulder shrugs & knees to the body. He went for a few body locks & trip takedowns but couldn’t land any. He has shown some good single & double leg takedowns. When he fought Abdul Razak Alhassan, he used his striking to set up takedowns very well in that fight. He doesn’t have the greatest top control, & fighters get-up from bottom on him. In this fight it’s interesting because I’m not sure Akhmedov wants to try to takedown Weidman. Akhmedov has 5 submissions, but none in the UFC. He has been submitted twice in his career. Akhmedov also tends to gas out especially when opponents put pressure on him.
Chris Weidman
Age: 36
Height: 6’2
Weight: 185
Reach: 78”
Gym: Serra-Lingo Fight Team
From: New York
UFC Record: 10-5
Fight Matrix: 15
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -135
Chris Weidman is back at 185, & this time against a step down in competition. A loser of five of his last six, Weidman needs to get back on track here. Weidman is a good striker. He will throw out a nice jab. He had a good one-two. He will throw a lot of front kick to the body, & controls distance well on the feet. He has a nice straight-right hand, & he will fake the level change & throw that or a hook with good power. He does a good job of if he can cut opponents off against the cage to then flurrying & throwing 3,4 jabs & mix in some hooks & uppercuts. Weidman is comfortable in the pocket & has a nasty left hook. Weidman will throw some nice low kicks & round kicks to the body & head. He is very resilient. He got dropped badly in his last fight against Kelvin Gastelum & he immediately got in on a single leg & survived. Weidman has a tendency to freeze up when he’s hit though. He will just cover up & be hittable. Jacare Souza was able to land hard body shots to open up the eventual kill shot to the head. Weidman has taken a lot of damage & been finished brutally by Dominick Reyes, Jacare Souza, Yoel Romero & Luke Rockhold. His finish against Mousasi I don’t think was really that bad in terms of big damage. He has 6 KO/TKO’s himself & definitely has big power.
Chris Weidman is a phenomenal grappler & very credentialed. He is a 2-time Division 1 All-American wrestler, a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu & an ADCC Gold Medalist. He has an amazing single leg & takes everyone down with it. He has very nice body locks & will immediately land in side control. He does a great job of if he can’t get the single, he stays attached coming up digging an underhook & chain wrestling. On top, he has great control, & is very methodical in his approach. He will slowly work into dominant positions & loves to get to a wrestling ride position or full mount, & then back control. He has a good rear naked choke, kimura & arm triangle. He has been working with John Danaher for a long time who is one of the best BJJ minds in the world. He has been on top of great guys like Demian Maia & couldn’t really control him but didn’t get in any danger or swept. He has never been submitted & has 4 submissions himself. He has great takedown defense & the only fighter who has exploited him on the ground is Luke Rockhold. He has great cardio & is used to being in championship fights & persevering. He needs a win here to keep his championship hopes alive.
For me, this one just comes down to if Weidman’s chin is completely gone or not. Akhmedov does have power but he isn’t known for knocking guys out. I just don’t see him being the better fighter over the course of 15-minutes here, so I think I would rather just play the TKO prop if I was going to bet the Akhmedov side. This is Akhmedov’s hardest test of his career & it is probably Weidman’s easiest fight on paper in the last 8-9 years. I think Weidman is the more active striker & the better wrestler too, so I just see him having more ways to win this fight & I think this is a good matchup for him at this stage in his career. I will lean with the former champ here but hard to trust that chin for sure.
Weidman is my preferred play here but Akhmedov could be the more important guy to target. If Akhmedov wins, I think it will be because Weidman’s chin is gone, & he knocks him out. That will score well & if it is early it will be on the optimal lineup. I think people will be chasing that though, so I don’t see him being low owned, even as the more expensive guy on DraftKings but an underdog on the betting line. Weidman will probably get extra ownership because of that value & I could see him just winning a 3-round decision for ~70 points. I don’t think we have to play him at all, I just like this matchup & I think he can have a lot of success on the ground if he takes it there. I will likely be in line with the field on both sides of this fight though & I would rather go overweight on Weidman & underweight on Akhmedov if not.
Winner – Chris Weidman via Unanimous Decision
Derrick Lewis $8,700 vs Aleksei Oleinik $7,500
Derrick Lewis
Age: 35
Height: 6’3”
Weight: 261.5 lbs
Reach: 79”
Gym: Silverback Fight Club
From: Texas
UFC Record: 14-5
Fight Matrix: 5
Last Fought: 6 months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -200
Derrick Lewis enters the favorite once again as he faces the veteran Alexey Oleinik. Lewis has been able to string a couple victories together following his title bid loss at the hands of Daniel Cormier. If he gets a victory in this fight, he will likely be in prime contention for a number one contenders bout. Lewis is a pretty good boxer & can close the distance with powerful combinations. He is very explosive for someone his size & can close the distance extremely quickly. Lewis has a similar style to that of Yoel Romero in terms of fighting in spots. He will be very inactive & look like he is not doing much on the feet at all, & then explode in with a powerful blitz attack & finish the fight. He has a decent jab, & a very good right hook. He likes to counter with a right hook in the pocket & does a good job of moving his head off center line & landing while making opponents miss. He is very good in the dirty boxing range & has nice, short hooks & uppercuts & can generate knockout power in incredibly short distances. He is surprisingly athletic for a fighter his size & shows that with his bountiful kicking game. He will use an array of kicks, ranging from the front kick to the body to a switch kick to the head. He can sometimes throw the high kick blind, but it is extremely powerful & his opponents are forced to respect & block it. Lewis will slam the kick into his opponent’s arms, & if he can knock them off balance, he will explode with a punching combination. Lewis has no problem getting in the pocket & throwing down with an opponent & will bite down on the mouth piece & go to war. He is a tough guy & some people say he is a quitter or mentally weak, but I completely disagree. Lewis has been finished by strikes 3 times, but he has a pretty good chin, & the ability to take shots. He is susceptible to body shots but is tough & will battle through it. The bottom line is you always have to be careful with the “Black Beast”. He is the definition of a knockout artist with 16 KO/TKO’s to his name.
Derrick Lewis is an underrated grappler. He is good in the clinch & does a great job of getting underhooks & digging with big knees to the body, he did this very effectively against Roy Nelson. He is also extremely dangerous in the dirty boxing realm. He can generate power in his short hooks & uppercuts that is not normal, & have fighters twitching on the canvas. He will shoot for takedowns; He likes to get double legs against the cage & will occasionally try to get a body lock takedown. He does a good job of defending takedowns, reversing & getting on top himself as well. Lewis has some of the best G&P in the history of MMA, it is absolutely devastating. He will throw huge hammerfists & elbows, & if he can pass the fighter’s guard into mount, the fight is as good as over. He is extremely heavy & almost impossible to get-up from under. If he gets on top of Oleinik, or anyone for that matter, they are in serious trouble. Off his back, he isn’t dangerous, but he has an uncanny ability to just stand up when he wants to. He will just belly down, give his back & stand right up. Most fighters haven’t been able to take his back & or stop him from disengaging the clinch when he stands up, proving just how physically strong Lewis is. He was made to pay for that in his match vs DC getting submitted by rear naked choke. Derrick Lewis has struggled with cardio himself, but still has a lot of late round finishes.
Alexey Oleinik
Age: 43
Height: 6’2”
Weight: 227.5 lbs
Reach: 80”
Gym: RusFighters MMA
From: Russia
UFC Record: 8-4
Fight Matrix:12
Last Fought: 3 months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +170
Alexey Oleinik secured the biggest win of his MMA career in his last fight. He was able to decision the former UFC HW champion Fabricio Werdum in a big upset victory. Oleinik will be looking for win number 60 in his remarkable career, in this fight. Alexey is a bit of a plodder on the feet who slowly walks opponents down with his hands a bit low, so he can come over the top with long, casting hooks with both arms. He will walk through fighters’ shots to land his own overhand right hook or left hand. He has big power in his overhand right, as he dropped Travis Browne with it & KO’d Jared Rosholt. He will work into the clinch & then land nice punches to the body while looking for body lock takedowns. He is very long so he can throw his casting hooks from a distance & get a hold of opponents pretty quickly. He has a nice uppercut & will throw a solid leg kick as well. He throws everything with full power. Oleinik has a strong chin also & can take a lot of punishment. He has been finished by strikes seven times but is still very durable. Oleinik has 8 KO/TKO wins.
Alexey Oleinik is one of the best heavyweight Jiu-Jitsu practitioners in MMA history, he has 46 submission victories & is very unorthodox with his attacks having landed 10 Ezekiel chokes. He has gotten an Ezekiel choke from being fully mounted against Viktor Pesta in the UFC. You will see him get that grip & even pull you on top of him with it from the standing clinch position. He is very comfortable both off his back & on top. He has a good guard & will trap a wrist & attack with triangles & armbars. He does a good job of getting back up out of side control. He has nice sweeps & was able to sweep Travis Browne, get a single leg & ultimately take the back & choke him out. He has an amazing squeeze & gets people to tap very quickly. He has finished 15 of his last 16 wins. Oleinik is a grinder & will continue to fight even when tired but he does have a questionable gas tank.
I don’t think there is any chance this one goes to decision. This should be a knockout from Lewis, or a submission from Oleinik. I think if you are looking to bet this fight, you just take the prop of which outcome you think will happen. I do think a KO from Lewis is the most likely outcome though because I think he will be tough to take down & every time Oleinik closes the distance he will risk being knocked out. I do see Oleinik shooting for the legs though & if he can get the fight down just once, or even grab a heel/leg lock, I think he can get the sub. Hard to tell which of those two outcomes happen but I am pretty confident it will be one or the other & I will lean with Lewis getting the knockout.
I keep seeing a heel hook or a leg lock in my head from Oleinik & that makes me want to say he is my preferred play here. But then I see him getting knocked out if he takes one hard shot. This is a tough one but one I will say both guys are core plays for me. I would think both guys make about 35% of my lineups but GPP only. I would fade this fight in cash games & I think you can fade it in GPPs as well. If Lewis doesn’t get a round 1 KO, then I think he could be kicked off the optimal lineup, so this is not a must have fight & I want about 1/3 of my lineups to fade this in case that happens. I have no real preference though so for SE I would say start your lineup elsewhere & make this one of the last spots in your lineup instead of the first. I do not see this going the distance but a round 1 KO from Lewis will put him on the optimal & a sub in any round for Oleinik could put him on it as well. If you have a strong lean on which outcome happens then go higher on that fighter, but I just want to take a bunch of shots on both & hope I can hit the right combo.
Winner – Derrick Lewis via 2nd round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown & be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building & I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend & enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks & predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice & fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: BigMarleyMMA.com
- Bets are on a 1-5u scale with 1u = $100.
- I am 131-105 for +247.02u (+$24,702) since May 19, 2018 for all premium bets.
