NASCAR Calming the Chaos 7/5/20 - Indianapolis

Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s patriotic Calming the Chaos!  It’s the 4th of July weekend, so be sure to set off some fireworks and have some BBQ in between lineup making sessions.

As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet.  If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.

Indianapolis Motor Speedway

One of the most iconic tracks on the circuit, Indy is another unique track that is similar to a few, but unlike the majority that we see.  This will narrow down the number of tracks we can cross-reference to, and make track-specific performance more important (especially recent races with the newer aero packages).  You know, now that I think about it…

More of the same?

If you recall from last week, I mentioned that Pocono and Indianapolis had some similarities.  While they physically look a bit different at first glance, they’re both big/wide flat tracks where we don’t see a ton of passing.  Add in the fact that we don’t have many laps at either event (160 laps this week vs 130 and 140 laps last week), and that tells us we can approach this race practically the same as Pocono.  There aren’t many times where we have two weeks back-to-back that are so similar (especially at non-1.5-mile tracks), so if it feels a little strange to be building the same way, don’t be alarmed.

One difference is that we do have a few more laps, and since it might be more difficult to pass here (which is saying a lot), I think we could do a few more lineups with 2 dominators on DraftKings since it’s more likely to see somebody hold the lead for a long time once they get it.

Basically, this week looks to be very similar to the first cup race at Pocono last weekend, and a lot of our upside will come from place differential and finishing position, with less of it coming from our dominators than what we get at other races.  That’s not to say those points won’t be useful, because they will be, but this isn’t the kind of race to go stuffing in drivers starting near the front and neglecting the good plays in the back (like we could do for the second race).

The Field

Dominators

I would look to use at least one dominator in all formats on both sites, with some two dominator lineups on DraftKings in GPP (we shouldn’t need two of them for cash games).  There aren’t really any hybrids this week, so we’ll want to be sure to

Logano will start on the pole this week, and with his solid track history here, I see no reason why he can’t lead at least the first stage.  A solid pit stop or two could see him lead the first half of the race, possibly more, so he’s in play as a dominator in all formats (be it as a primary with somebody else as a secondary, or as a solo).  There’s always a chance that Kurt could hold the lead early instead, so you could use him as a direct pivot, but I don’t see him having solo-dominator capabilities.  If you use Kurt, I’d probably pair him with another dominator instead of trying to stack the front row.

Aside from Logano, I don’t really love anybody to lead early.  I think Hamlin would have the best chance, but after that, I would focus more on a secondary dominator to go with Logano (or Kurt), or just look at the other options and hedge some lineups in hopes that whoever leads the first stage or two winds up not being a factor (DNF, poor finish, etc).

My first two options here would be Harvick and Keselowski.  Like at Pocono, Harvick has a very strong history here (hasn’t finished worse than 8th since 2014, and has led 227 laps since then), so I would not be surprised at all to see him lead a big chunk of laps during stage 2 and/or 3.  I think he would be a strong option to go with Logano, but could also work with Hamlin.  Keselowski is certainly in play too, but I don’t see him as having quite as high of a ceiling as Harvick.  Still, he’s worth having exposure to just in case.

The rest don’t really stand out to me.  Kyle Busch has a good history here, but I don’t see him as a strong option until we start having practice again.  I would say his ceiling is just as high as anybody else’s, but his chances of hitting it seem a lot lower.  Keep him in GPP only.

After that, we have a lot of good drivers that haven’t had very good luck here and haven’t shown any real dominator potential either; Bowman, Truex, Elliott, Blaney, and Almirola.  Feel free to mix and match them, but I would probably focus more on Logano, Harvick, and Hamlin here.

Before we head to the next section, I should point out that Almirola did have a very strong showing at Pocono, and if he unloads with a car that takes off like it did there, he could be in for another surprise performance.  It’s not something I would bet the house on or anything, but it’s worth noting if you like that narrative.  I don’t see him being able to take the early lead, so I would like him best as a secondary dominator (same for Bowman, Truex, etc).

Studs / value studs

Another week, another race where Bell starts at the back of the field and is priced up on DraftKings.  He hasn’t been as popular in cash as he could be, but after finishing 4th at the first Pocono race, I think more people might look at him (remember that these are fairly similar tracks and he could have the same top-10 upside here).  Bowyer is also a strong target again, starting 22nd with his top-5 upside (he’s also led a fair amount of laps here recently, so he could almost be looked at as a hybrid or supplemental dominator this week, but I wouldn’t plug him in as a main dominator).

Byron is up there too, and his 4th place finish last year shows lots of upside with him starting 18th.  He doesn’t have the same lead lap upside that Bowyer does, so his ceiling may be a touch lower, but I could see these two landing in the winning lineup together if they can both finish strongly.  Don’t be afraid to use him as a pivot or addition to Bell/Bowyer, and the same can be said for Jones and DiBenedetto, though I would see them as being a little riskier, so I’d keep them to GPP.

I know I listed Blaney above as a dominator pivot, but starting 12th gives him enough place differential that he could still be in the winning lineup without really dominating the race (especially on FanDuel), so feel free to use him here and stack him with your other dominators.

Kenseth used to be a stud here in the #20 over the last handful of years, and his 12th and 11th place finishes at Pocono give me a lot of hope for him here.  I think he’s got a pretty good shot at grabbing his first single-digit finish of 2020

Finally, of course, there’s Reddick.  While it’s true he didn’t have the races at Pocono that he would have liked, he did show plenty of upside there, and I think that will translate over to Indy.  He’s good to go on both sites, but for the price, I’d stick to GPP here as well.

To summarize, this looks to be a strong group of drivers

Value / punts

Preece is cheap and starts nice and deep in the field, making him a top target here in all formats.  Any sort of top-20 (maybe even just a top-25)  likely puts him in the winning lineup on any site, and his floor is as solid as you could ask for at this price.  He makes it very easy to get a Harvick/Bell combo in cash games.

Ty Dillon didn’t look the best at Pocono, but he’s looked pretty sharp here at Indy with 13th, 21st, and 19th place finishes.  Starting 29th gives him a solid floor with a healthy ceiling, so I like him as a cheaper option for all formats.  The same can be said about his brother Austin, who might have been a better play, but starting 16th takes away a lot of that floor, so I would keep him in GPP.  Still, he’s got top-10 upside here, so be sure you’re playing him in GPP (feel free to stack the brothers if you want to).

Mcdowell was a target at Pocono, and while the second race didn’t go according to plan, he did show top-10 upside with the first race, and his recent races here (17th, 17th, 18th, and 23rd) tell me he’s in play again this week.  He’s still pretty cheap and starts fairly deep, so I like him in cash games if you have to go low, and I love him in GPP for his big upside.  He probably has the highest raw upside in this group, second maybe only to Austin or Newman if they put together a great race.

Speaking of which, Newman has done very well here over the years, and while some would say he hasn’t looked the same since his return, I will say that he has finished anywhere from 12th to 18th at a large number of said races, so I don’t see why he couldn’t be in play here.  His last three races here have ended in 8th, 10th, and 3rd place finishes, so definitely have exposure to him in case he does that again.  I would lean GPP here, and with how cheap he is, he’s in play on both sites, but I do like him slightly better on FanDuel.

This wouldn’t be a track I would normally like Buescher at (it not being a 1.5-mile track and all), but not only did he look sharp at Pocono, but he’s had some pretty good runs here as well.  He’s finished 15th, 25th, 9th, and 14th here, and starting 20th gives him plenty of upside if he can grab another top-10.  I’d probably lean GPP here unless you can’t afford anybody else in cash games, but I would prefer pay up for the floor that Ty offers if it can be helped.  Still, he’s a solid target.

LaJoie snuck his way into the winning lineup last week, and he’s cheap enough that he could do it again since he’s starting even deeper, this time 31st.  He managed a 19th place finish last year, which would easily put him in the winning lineup again this week if he can replicate that, or come close to a top-23 or so finish.

There are some other interesting options to look at, and good ol’ Stenhouse is in play as a wildcard.  Though his history here mostly stinks, he did finish 12th back in 2012, so there is some hope.  I wouldn’t go overboard here, but do get some exposure to him as a GPP pivot.

For another wildcard play, Wallace had a surprise 3rd place finish here last year, and while I don’t expect him to be able to repeat that, it does at least show plenty of upside for him, so be sure you have at least some exposure to him in GPP.  His average running position that race was 14th, though he only spent 65% of the time in the top-15.  That tells me it wasn’t a dominating performance that got him that finish, but it does at least say he can hold a decent position and could take advantage of a caution at the right time, so he’s worth taking a look at in case the race favors him and his pit strategy.

For our final wildcard we have Allgaier.  The good news is that he’s talented and offers a lot of car for the money, but the bad news is that he starts 4th and there’s no telling what we can expect from him here.  If you play him, be sure it’s in GPP only, but for how cheap he is, I don’t hate sprinkling him around some just in case he pulls a Reddick and lands a surprise top-5 finish.  This is his time to shine as a call-up, so keep that in mind if you’re set on just fading him.

As for the punts, the same mostly applies here as last week, and I’m not interested in them.  Granted, they might be slightly better since it’s not as long of a track, but there’s still not going to be much room for them to move up.  I’d prefer to pay up a little for the budget options.

Quick recap

I wanted to add a new section to these articles to give, well, a quick recap of what I went over above.  This will be more geared towards GPP, since most people aren’t making a bunch of cash lineups.  For now, the names in bold are the stronger plays, while the names in plain text are decent pivots.  It will probably change some over time, but for now, let’s take a quick look!

Dominators (1-2 DK, 1 FD)

• Primary / solo – Harvick, Logano, Hamlin, Kurt Busch
• Secondary – Harvick, Hamlin, Keselowski, Kyle Busch, Almirola
• Secondary pivots – Truex, Blaney, Almirola, Elliott, Bowman

Studs / value studs (dominator stacking feature option)

• Take 1-3 per lineup: Bell, Bowyer, Byron, Blaney, Jones, Kenseth, Reddick, DiBenedetto

Value drivers (dominator stacking feature option)

• Take 1-3 per lineup: Preece, Ty Dillon, McDowell, Austin Dillon, Newman, Buescher, LaJoie, Stenhouse, Wallace, Allgaier

Punts 

• None this week

Closing thoughts

I hope you all have a great 4th of July weekend and win some money at this race, which is very similar to what we saw last Saturday.  Let me know of the quick recap section was useful, and if so, I’ll continue to utilize/improve it.  Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!