BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC Fight Island 3 Location – Fight Island, Abu Dhabi
This weekend, we have a 15-fight card on Fight Island that will have no fans in attendance due to the pandemic. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $500k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games & look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience & you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player & it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups & 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights & hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Nathaniel Wood $9,500 vs John Castaneda $6,700
Nathaniel Wood
Age: 26
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: Great Britain Top Team
From: England
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 33
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -525
Nathaniel enters a huge favorite here. He was originally scheduled to face Umar Nurmagomedov which would have been a great fight, but Umar was forced to withdraw. Due to that, Wood is now facing a UFC newcomer in John Castaneda. Even though Wood lost his last fight I thought he looked good. He was sharp with his hands & was throwing some nasty front kicks to the body. Wood is more of a Muay Thai striker. He plants his feet & has much less movement. He is very quick, has a nice jab & hard leg kicks. He has a good overhand right. He will throw hard, counter left hooks. He likes to counter with straight-right hands & hooks. He will throw a left hook, front kick to the body, straight-right hand combination. He has a nice front kick to the body. He looked great in his match with Andre Ewell. He walked down Andre Ewell & took it to him. He has good head movement, & a great chin. He is willing to take shots to give his own. He throws a lot of volume & slowly starts to wear on opponents if fights go long. If he gets clipped, he will back up to the cage & use head movement & a high guard to defend while trying to land one big shot. While it isn’t a great strategy IMO, he has been able to catch & finish opponents doing this. We saw in his last fight when he backed up in a straight-line, Dodson just followed him & landed big, straight punch combinations. Wood definitely is very durable, but he did get dropped & finished in his last match. Wood has one punch knockout power if he lands clean & keeps his power for all three rounds. He has 9 KO/TKO’s & has only been finished twice by strikes.
Nathaniel Wood has shown progression in his game & is starting to use his grappling offensively much more in fights. In the UFC, he has three submissions in three wins. Wood timed a nice body lock & double leg against Andre Ewell & controlled him easily. He was able to land big shots from inside his opponent’s guard. Wood is a veteran now. He works smart & doesn’t give up top position stupidly. Wood showed a nice back take & rear naked choke when Andre Ewell went to stand up. In round one of his last match, Wood was taken down with a body lock by Jose Quinonez but was able to sweep & stand up pretty quickly. In round two he was able to take down Quinonez with a body lock, take his back & get the rear naked choke. He has done that in back to back fights & it looks like that back take is his thing. He hits it like butter & the choke has come shortly after. Wood is very technically sound both on the feet & on the ground. Wood has an excellent front head lock series. He will jump on darces very quickly. Wood is dangerous on the ground. Wood has five submissions in his career. He has been submitted twice, but the last time he was submitted it was 2015. Wood has excellent cardio & will not get tired.
Joel Castaneda
Age: 28
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: The Academy
From: Minnesota
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +415
John Castaneda is set to make his UFC debut here, getting a short notice call. Castaneda is a bit lucky to get this opportunity. He hasn’t fought since April of 2019 & is only 1-2 in his last three fights. I will say when I watched his fight with Jose Alday, I thought he got robbed. Castaneda is no slouch. He has already won on the DWCS & has some good wins on his record. Castaneda mainly is a wrestler, boxer with a nice high kick. He has pretty solid boxing combinations, can switch stances & has some pop in his punches. He is good at exploding in with straight punches & then coming in with power hooks over the top. He has a nice left hook, as well as a nice lead uppercut. In the pocket, he will slip & tip effectively. He has some heavy low kicks. Castaneda will throw sneaky high kicks, at the end of combinations. Castaneda can be bullied & backed up at times. He is willing to brawl & can get sloppy & become hittable. With his style of blitzing in, he can get hit with shots entering range. Castaneda has been finished by strikes only one time in his career. He is durable & has a swagger about him. Castaneda is dangerous for this lighter weight class. He has six KO/TKO’s in his career.
John Castaneda is a pretty good grappler. He has solid timing on his double legs, & good top control. He is willing to grind against the cage & Is pretty good in scrambles. He has good passing ability & submissions. In his last match, he hit a nice arm triangle. He is a back taker. He will flatten fighters out & pound them out, or lock in the rear naked choke. Castaneda has six submissions in his career. I haven’t really seen him face a high-level wrestler or how his game off his back is. Castaneda has cardio & can fight hard for three rounds. He is an experienced vet & a decent addition to the division. Castaneda looks like an exciting guy who is going to bring the fight, but I think he’s a bit overmatched here. I think he will be very aggressive early on but get caught with a right hand & knocked out.
I am very high on Wood as a prospect and I think he is better everywhere. Castaneda didn’t look bad, but I don’t see any advantages for him in this matchup and I would think he is KO or bust. Wood does have a questionable chin and if Castaneda can test it, maybe he can get a stoppage. If he doesn’t, I expect him to get beat up and Wood can finish him on the feet or the ground.
I like Wood here and I think he is a good pivot away from the more expensive Chimaev. I think Wood could score the highest on the slate, and if you fade him, right out of the gates you will be looking to tilt enter the late slate. I will be overweight to Wood here and I like him in all formats. If this wasn’t the first fight of the night, then I would fade Castaneda, but I have been burned way too many times on the curtain jerker that I have to throw him in at least one lineup so I’m not the one tilt entering the late slate.
Winner – Nathaniel Wood via 2nd round (T)KO
Ramazan Emeev $9,400 vs Niklas Stolze $6,800
Ramazan Emeev
Age: 33
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 68.5”
Gym: Gorets FT
From: Russia
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 38
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -425
Ramazan Emeev suffered defeat for the first time in over five years his last time out. He was defeated by Rocco Martin via decision. Emeev was scheduled to face a stiff test in Shavkat Rakhmonov, but with Rakhmonov pulling out, he’s now facing the debuting Niklas Stolze. Ramazan Emeev is a solid striker with a long reach. He has a really long, snappy jab. He throws a lot of just one or two shot combinations & really just likes to pot shot opponents until he can get in on a body lock. He has a good shoulder roll style he will use to counter. Emeev will throw nice kicks as well to the body & head, along with spinning kicks. Emeev is a very cool, calm, composed fighter. He is excellent at using his striking to back opponents up, land a straight or right hook & then move directly into the body lock. He is very physical in the clinch & that’s where I see him having the most success in this match. I think he will be the stronger fighter & may be able to slow down the fight by controlling Stolze against the cage & maybe sealing the rounds with late takedowns. Emeev is also excellent at landing shots off the break. He will land nasty hooks & straight punches off the break that can stun opponents. When fighters walk him down, he can pull back with his chin up & he seems susceptible to low kicks to me. He can be a bit uncomfortable when opponents can use intelligent forward pressure. Emeev usually isn’t a knockout artist with just 3 career KO/TKO’s. He has been finished by strikes once in his career.
Ramazan Emeev is a strong grappler. He spends the large majority of his fights controlling opponents in the clinch. He has great body lock takedowns, & okay control in top position. He has good timing on his body lock entries in space. His top game isn’t super dangerous. He does have good control & submission defense. He was able to defend a lot of leg attacks against Alberto Mina, which Stolze likes to throw up. Emeev was able to escape some very deep kimuras in his last fight with Rocco Martin. Emeev does have nice kimuras himself. He will use them to defend takedown attempts along with creating scrambles if taken down. Emeev can be taken down himself but has good get-ups. His last opponent was able to get a couple takedowns on Emeev. Emeev has great cardio & composure & will be there for 3 hard rounds. Emeev has 7 career submissions & has been submitted one time.
Niklas Stolze
Age: 27
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: N/A
Gym: La Onda Fight Club
From: Germany
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +340
Niklas Stolze is jumping in here on short notice with a 12-3 pro record. He is fighting out of Germany. Stolze’s record doesn’t instill much confidence. He hasn’t fought anyone of note & has a loss to an 11-12 fighter in 2017. Stolze is a good athlete with plus skills across the board. Stolze is a tall, rangy fighter who likes to move around the cage. He has good pull counters. He is good at catching guys with straight punch counters as they come forward. He will put good combinations together after the straight. He has fast hands & solid counters inside. He has very nice kicks. He throws some nice low kicks. He needs to throw the kicks early & often in this fight. Stolze throws heavy kicks to the body & head. He will throw some nice front kicks to the body. Stolze is very fast, a good athlete & dangerous at range. Stolze does get backed up & is a bit hittable. When he gets hit, he will shell up at times. Stolze isn’t a power guy, but he has good timing, & can catch & stun opponents. His head kick is tricky. Stolze has four knockouts in his career.
Niklas Stolze is a well-rounded fighter. He will look to mix it up & hit takedowns. In the clinch, Stolze isn’t the best. I’ve seen him control some low-level guys in the clinch, but I’ve also seen him hurt with dirty boxing shots. He does have some heavy knees in the clinch. I’ve seen him hit some trips against the cage. Stolze has some pretty good level changes for his double leg. I have seen him held against the cage himself. His takedown defense is improving, but not the best. Off his back, Stolze is aggressive with leg locks, sweeps & kimuras. Stolze is dangerous with rear naked chokes when he can take the back. He has five career submissions. Stolze is an opportunistic finisher. A lot of fights he gets hurt himself or is losing before he wins. He is 3-3 in decisions in his career proving that point. If he can’t finish & it goes to decision, he’s a 50-50 proposition. Stolze has never been finished. He is an athlete & improving every fight.
Stolze is making his UFC debut here and he has a real tough test here against Emeev. I would say Emeev is better everywhere, but he really lacks volume and that could be an issue for him moving forward. He is the better striker and wrester, but Stolze is live for a submission win I think. I would expect Emeev to be able to keep this fight on the feet and win this fight there, I just don’t think there is any value in him at this line with that lack of volume and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him lose.
Emeev is an easy fade for me. He could get a 1st round KO and ruin my night early, but if he doesn’t I am pretty confident he doesn’t end up on the optimal lineup. I won’t have any Emeev this week, so my preferred play here will be Stolze. I don’t really like him either, but I think the lack of volume from Emeev makes him live here and I won’t X him out of my player pool for that reason. He is cheap, so we don’t need a ton from him here and I like him more than dogs that cost more so I do think he makes a couple lineups out of 20.
Winner – Ramazan Emeev via Unanimous Decision
Pannie Kianzad $8,400 vs Bethe Correia $7,800
Pannie Kianzad
Age: 28
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 66”
Gym: Arte Suave
From: Denmark
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 18
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -155
Pannie Kianzad will be looking to win her second UFC fight as she takes on Bethe Correia. Kianzad was successful her last time out getting a decision win over Jessica Rosa Clark in November. Kianzad is still in search of consistency in the UFC. She was able to make it to the finale of the ultimate fighter but was finished by Macy Chiasson in her UFC debut. She lost her second UFC fight as well vs Julia Avila, & she needs a win here to avoid going 1-3 in her first four fights. Pannie Kinziad is a pretty skillful boxer. She is loose & has very good hand speed. She will throw nice, sharp jabs. Everything works off the jab with Kianzad. She is very good with the one-two or double jab, cross. She will sneak the right hand in behind the jabs & jar her opponents. She has a very nice, tight left hook. She was able to counter & stun Julia Avila with that punch. Kianzad was snapping Clark’s head back with her jabs, hooks & straights & hurting her. Kianzad isn’t a fighter who moves much. She is better when she goes forward, but she likes to more sit in front, bounce & stay in the pocket. She has faith in her boxing combinations. She was getting hit with a lot of right hands vs Rose Clark. Kianzad has some heavy kicks; Nice low kicks & good front & round kicks to the body. Pannie Kianzad is very durable. She took some bombs from Julia Avila, huge shots in the clinch, & Avila is a power hitter. When Kianzad gets hit she wants to get it back immediately & is very tough.
Pannie Kinziad is a competent grappler. She uses her combinations to crash into the clinch. She will dig strong double underhooks & has nice knees & short punches. Kinziad showed good strength & technique being able to reverse & compete with one of the strongest girls in the division in Julia Avila. She was landing hard shots off the break. Kinziad has solid body lock takedowns. Her top game is not very dangerous. She doesn’t have the greatest top control & zero career submissions. Kinziad allows herself to get backed up towards the cage much too easily. She has decent takedown defense, but not great. When she’s put on her back, she is active in her guard with submissions. She has decent armbars & leg locks she uses to sweep. If fighters can pass the legs & move to side control, they have success. She gives her back to try to stand up & lost via rear naked choke recently against Macy Chiasson. Julia Avila was able to take Kianzad’s back & dominate her for the entirety of the third round. Kianzad does scramble well & has good submission defense. She seems to love scrambling & being on the mat. She will be smiling when opponents have armbars locked in on her & is not part of the quick tap club. She is going to be very tough to submit, & I feel has better grappling than Correia. Pannie’s Achilles heel throughout her career has been strong clinch fighters or wrestlers. This is the kind of matchup Pannie usually does well in.
Bethe Correia
Age: 37
Height: 5’5
Weight: 135
Reach: 64”
Gym: Pitbull Brothers
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 5-4-1
Fight Matrix: 11
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +135
Bethe Correia is still hanging around. She picked up yet another victory, springing the upset on Sijara Eubanks in Mexico. That was Correia’s first win in over two years. Correia has also not won two fights in a row since 2014. She is now 37 years old, & only 2-4-1 in her last six fights. Correia seems to push these girls though & get a win when she needs to just stay relevant enough & in the top 15. Bethe is a tough, durable brawler. She has looked pretty good in her last two fights. On the feet, Bethe isn’t the fastest girl, & doesn’t have the best footwork, but she somehow works her way inside & is effective. She has a pretty good jab & a good one-two. She is actually sneaky good with her right hand. She throws nice straights down the middle & heavy overhand rights. She is good at throwing the right-hand lead followed by a left hook to the body. She has a nice counter left hook. Correia ripped the body with hooks very effectively in her last fight against Sijara Eubanks. She will throw the straight-right to the body as well. In the pocket, Correia is durable & willing to take one to give one. She throws big, powerful looping shots that look good to the judges. Correia has a decent low leg kick as well. Her defense is not good, & she is slow. Irene Aldana spent a large period of their fight just sticking & moving with the jab & one-two. She will overextend on her punches, get off balance & be vulnerable to counters. She is just very durable though & enjoys a war. Her willingness to eat shots while ripping to the body & pushing opponents backwards is vital to her style. She isn’t someone who is going to knockout many people. She gets more TKO’s when fighters get tired or wins decisions by outworking them. In her career she just has two TKO victories. She has been knocked out twice, but those were against two former UFC champions in Ronda Rousey & Holly Holm.
Bethe Correia is an underrated grappler. She proved that once again in her last fight with Sijara Eubanks. Correia isn’t an offensive wrestler, but her defensive wrestling is very solid. In ten UFC fights, Bethe just has three takedowns. She has also only been taken down three times herself. Correia was taken down by Eubanks in round one & dominated on the mat. Eubanks hit a good blast double, & she is one of the best wrestlers in the division. In the second & third rounds Bethe was able to see the shots coming, dig underhooks & reverse position. She was able to put Eubanks against the cage, control her, & denied all the takedowns after round one. In her fight with Aldana, she did look a little fatigued in round three, shot a bad takedown & was submitted. Correia usually has very good cardio & that was the only fight she really faded. She was coming off a long layoff, & missed weight by 5 lbs, so I am going to give her the benefit of the doubt that something was off that camp. That was the only time Correia has ever been submitted as well. She has no submissions herself. Correia is the veteran & has way more high-level experience than Kinziad. She will be looking to parlay that into a victory on Saturday night.
I think this will be a 15-minute striking battle and it should be close. I don’t see either fighter having any big edges here but if I had to pick one of them to be the favorite, it would be Kianzad. I think -145 might be a bit too high here but I think she is more on the way up and Bethe is on the way out, so it still might be favorite or pass. I would probably wait this line out a bit and see if you can get Kianzad closer to even, but I think she wins 2 of the 3 rounds here so she is the pick.
The only good thing about this fight is that both fighters are near the mid-range and we don’t need 100+ from them. I just don’t think either gets 10x still, so I really am not interested in it. I could see either side making a lineup of mine because they are the 6th spot and I can afford them, but I won’t leave any salary on the table in a lineup that either of these two would make. This is a pretty easy fade for me, but both will be very low owned, so I think you can play them if you have a strong lean. Both sides do make sense for cash games though because they have high floors, so I think both are fine there and my preferred play would be Correia.
Winner – Pannie Kianzad via Unanimous Decision
Tanner Boser $8,900 vs Raphael Pessoa $7,300
Tanner Boser
Age: 28
Height: 6’2
Weight: 235
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: Shaved Bears MMA
From: Canada
UFC Record: 3-1-1
Fight Matrix: 44
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -265
Tanner Boser is making a quick turnaround after his brutal knockout over Philippe Lins a few weeks ago. Boser looked better than ever in that match & is looking to keep the momentum going. Tanner Boser is a low volume striker. He likes to work behind kicks & counter with punches. He will throw some occasional jabs to the head & body. He throws elbows as opponents try to close the distance. Boser has nasty leg kicks inside & outside. This is probably the best part of his game. He will throw heavy round & front kicks to the body & head. He has nice one-twos as opponents try to close the distance. He will throw counter hooks moving backwards along with overhand rights. Boser is pretty flat footed & can come up short with a lot of his shots. He doesn’t tend to go first much & likes to be on the outside. That could be a problem for him in this fight against a much taller opponent. Boser does pick it up as the fight goes on usually. He will cut the cage off by switching stances & throw more volume. He is hittable, but he has a great chin. I have seen him take some bombs & show nothing. He has 8 KO/TKO’s, but definitely more of a volume fighter. His last fight he had a disgusting KO combo. He has lost some decisions that I think were a bit raw deals & he could easily have a better record. He has been knocked out one time in his career.
Boser is not an offensive grappler. I haven’t seen him shoot many, if any takedowns at all or look for the clinch. He shows good balance & takedown defense against the cage. He will dig solid double underhooks to circle off the cage & attack with knees. Denis Smoldarov who’s a strong wrestler was able to time some double leg takedowns, but Boser also showed a strong sprawl. Boser isn’t bad off his back. He has decent get-ups & will attack with kimuras. Boser has good cardio & will go to work off the breaks. His takedown defense to me is pretty good. He isn’t someone who will work on top much. He has two rear naked choke submissions early in his career. He has never been submitted.
Raphael Pessoa
Age: 31
Height: 6’4
Weight: 247
Reach: 78”
Gym: Heavyweight Brothers MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 76
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +225
Raphael Pessoa is making his third UFC start looking for his second consecutive win. Pessoa is a fun fighter to watch & down to scrap. Pessoa is a striker. He has good lateral movement & nasty leg kicks. Pessoa will throw body & spinning kicks. Pessoa doesn’t like fighting on the inside much. He will use his jab, left hook & hook combos to land & exit. Pessoa will look for counter uppercuts. He has huge power & has been able to knockout a lot of opponents in sloppy pocket exchanges. He gets hit in the exchanges but has a strong chin & fires back. He is basic & trading inside sloppy will likely get him knocked out in future fights. He also is soft in the body. Pessoa doesn’t have fast feet & fighters can get inside & back him up against the cage. Pessoa has 6 knockouts in 9 wins.
Pessoa isn’t an offensive grappler. He is a black belt but hasn’t shown that part of his skill. He doesn’t look like someone who will have an explosive wrestling shot & I highly doubt he can take down Boser. In his match with Cyril Gane, he showed nothing on the mat. He made a mistake going for a hip toss & ended up on his back. When he was down, he almost turtled up, & was arm triangled almost immediately. Obviously after opponents see that you have to imagine they are going to try to take him down. Pessoa does have one career submission.
I have not been high on Boser at all but it’s hard to not pick him here. I don’t know about laying -250, but he does deserve to be the favorite. This should be a striking fight and I would expect Boser to have the volume edge and I like his leg kicks. Pessoa might have the better hands and more power, he just doesn’t throw them enough and I don’t want to rely on him getting a knockout because he doesn’t have scary power either. Either guy could get a knockout since these are HWs, but I will take Boser to win on the scorecards.
Because this is a Heavyweight fight, both guys are in play. Either could land that big shot in round 1 and be on the optimal lineup because of it. I can’t say to fade this fight for that reason, but I might do it with 20 or less lineups. I don’t think either scores well in a decision and that is what I see happening here. I think Boser is more likely to get the KO, but I also think he will be higher owned, so I think my preferred play would be Pessoa. I don’t care for either side in cash games either, so this will be a fight I mostly avoid.
Winner – Tanner Boser via Unanimous Decision
Movsar Evloev $9,100 vs Mike Grundy $7,100
Movsar Evloev
Age: 26
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: Russia
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 44
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W12
Betting Odds: -200
Movsar Evloev will be looking to run his record to a perfect 3-0 in the UFC & 13-0 overall. Evloev is yet another guy coming out of Tiger Muay Thai. Their camp has been performing very well during this pandemic. On the feet, Evloev isn’t the best, but he’s awkward & effective. He walks fighters down constantly & is just a work horse. He has heavy one-twos & throws stiff shots. He will throw jab, uppercuts & jab, overhand rights. He has good straight punch leads. He throws hard & with a lot of volume. It’s tough for fighters to get aggressive or a good read on him because he has amazing level changes mid combination. He will throw some heavy low kicks & body kicks. He will even throw some high kicks, front kicks to the face & spinning kicks. He will try to dig body shots. I’m sure his striking is constantly improving at Tiger Muay Thai. Evloev is still stiff. He’s improving his footwork & lateral movement, but he can still back up with his chin high. Evloev doesn’t react the best to pressure & fighters who throw longer combinations. Barzola was able to tag him with some shots as he followed him with punches as he went straight backwards. Evloev isn’t going to want to get hit as much against a fighter like Grundy who hits really hard.
Movsar Evloev is an elite grappler for MMA. He has been called the mini Khabib for how he mauls his opponents. His wrestling is similar as well. Unlike Grundy who is a freestyle wrestler shooting in on the legs, Evloev is more Greco Roman. He will shoot in on the legs, but usually only to push opponents to the cage & take them down in the clinch. He is excellent at shooting in on singles & doubles, & then coming up into a body lock. His level changes are amazing, extremely fast & well timed. He did struggle to takedown Enrique Barzola after round one who is a great scrambler. Evloev is excellent in the clinch against the cage. He will look for foot sweeps, body locks, & has very good control there. In this fight, I think Evloev needs cage grinding time to win. He is extremely strong & will dig an underhook & muscle opponents to the ground. He likes to get into half guard & smash opponents. Most of the time when he’s taking an opponent down, they don’t get free from him from for the remainder of the round. Even if they stand up, he stays attached & mat returns them. He had a strong mount & will throw hard G&P. He has great back takes & back control. He has tremendous grappling cardio & wears on fighters with his pressure, pace & riding ability. He has been in five round fights & not slowed down. He is good off his back at sweeping to top position as well. He was taken down late in round two with a big double leg by Barzola & ate some ground & pound shots. He is going to need to be ready to not only shoot takedowns this fight but defend takedowns. Grundy will be looking to shoot in on the legs, & Evloev has to be ready to defend. Evloev has 4 submissions, all rear naked chokes.
Mike Grundy
Age: 33
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 72”
Gym: Team Kaobon Liverpool
From: England
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W9
Betting Odds: +170
Mike Grundy was successful in his UFC debut. He got a big TKO victory over former cage warriors champion Nad Narimani. Grundy has been unbeaten now for over five years. Grundy is another training partner of Darren Till, & will be looking to make a statement & get the momentum rolling. This fight was already scheduled for August of 2019, but Grundy was forced to pull out with an injury. Grundy hasn’t fought in nearly a year & half. A big win here could regain the momentum he’s lost. Mike Grundy as a striker is improving. He has a wide stance, bounces in & out, & has an intelligent right hand. He will throw some jabs, mostly as a range finder. Grundy’s main two attacks on the feet are the straight-right hand & left hook. He likes to move around & pull fighters into the straight-right. He will throw straight-right, left hook combinations. In Grundy’s last fight he landed a ruthless left hook that rocked & dropped Narimani. He swarmed him & finished the fight to get his first TKO win. Grundy doesn’t throw very many kicks. He can look a bit stiff in his movements. When he moves back, he can float his chin in the air. Grundy got hit with a left hook behind the ear in his last fight that rocked him badly. On the feet, Grundy is low volume as well. He isn’t bad though. His right hand is pretty sharp & he has power with both fists. He is going to be the much bigger fighter in this matchup.
Mike Grundy is an elite wrestler. He is a former bronze medalist at the commonwealth games. Grundy is jacked, very strong, & athletic for the division. He has great timing on his singles & doubles. In the clinch, he will get nice trips & body locks. On top, Grundy has great top control. He will work short shots & elbows from inside the full guard. He likes to sit in half guard, work ground & pound, & look for submissions. He will fish for arm triangle chokes. He will use the head & arm position to progress to side control or mount. Against Michael Tobin, Grundy caught a pretty nasty one arm guillotine from half guard, transitioned to the mount & finished the choke. Grundy has a really nice front head choke. He will use it to snap fighters back down when they attempt to stand up. Grundy also has a half decent darce choke. In Grundy’s last fight, he was able to hit a nice single leg, but couldn’t control Narimani who got up quickly. Grundy only shot one takedown in the fight, which he got, so I’m not sure why he seemed content to stand & trade with Narimani. Grundy hasn’t had very many people test his defensive wrestling. The couple times I’ve seen him on bottom it was from a sweep or mistake Grundy made going for a takedown of his own. Grundy has been able to reverse back to top position very quickly every time. Overall, he hasn’t faced much adversity throughout his MMA career. He has been able to take fighters down & control them fairly easily. Grundy has finished 8 of his 12 wins via submission. His lone loss was a triangle choke submission loss to Damian Stasiak in 2015.
I think this is a close one. Both guys are really good wrestlers and I don’t even know who to give the edge there. I would think Evloev is the better grappler, but I don’t know that he can have much success getting Grundy down and I do think that it cancels out enough to make this mainly a striking battle. On the feet, I think Evloev is the better overall striker and maybe the guy that will be throwing with more volume and combinations. Grundy looks like he would have more power though and I don’t see Evloev being so much better on the feet that he should be a 2/1 favorite here. I think the value is on the dog in this matchup and I think this should be closer to a 50/50 fight.
This will be mostly dog or pass for me on DraftKings because of their salaries. I am interested in a lot of expensive favorites and I don’t see Evloev dominating any part of this fight to where he can compete with those other guys. Grundy is going to be a guy I like in all formats though and maybe my favorite underdog play on the slate. I don’t see him scoring well in a decision, but he is so cheap that we don’t need 100, and maybe 10x will do. I think he would be a lock for my cash lineup this week at his price and I will likely be overweight in GPPs as well.
Winner – Mike Grundy via Split Decision
Tom Aspinall $8,800 vs Jake Collier $7,400
Tom Aspinall
Age: 27
Height: 6’5
Weight: 255
Reach: N/A
Gym: Team Kaobon Liverpool
From: England
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 153
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -235
Tom Aspinall is making his UFC debut here with a lot of fanfare. He is a main training partner for Darren Till, & a big, power punching guy. Aspinall has a clock on his back, but in the cage, he has no time. All his wins have come in the first round inside of 1 minute & 30 seconds. The level of competition for Aspinall has been very low. Aspinall is very athletic for a heavyweight. He has great movement, fast hands & good boxing. He has a very nice jab, & likes to back guys up, work the jab, & then slip in the straight-right that knocks them out. He will throw one-twos followed by short hooks. He has pretty good uppercuts. He is excellent at landing a one, sliding out of range & then coming back with two more. He backs fighters up, feints, picks & pulls, & really makes guys uncomfortable. He will attack the body with punches. Aspinall has nasty low kicks & round kicks to the body. In a recent fight he had on cage warriors, he checked a kick, & broke his opponents leg.
Tom Aspinall is a black belt & strong Jiu-Jitsu player. He hasn’t really looked to use it a lot in his MMA career yet. Aspinall isn’t a very good wrestler. He does do a great job of backing guys up towards the cage & will shoot in on some double legs. In top position, Aspinall wastes no time looking for ground & pound or submissions. Aspinall thus far in his MMA career has just preferred to use ground & pound to win. He has just one submission via heel hook. Aspinall’s defensive wrestling looks pretty good. In the one fight he had against a good grappler, he was taken down quite easily. Stuart Austin who is a judo black belt was able to take Aspinall down with judo throws & a double leg. Aspinall has shown very fast hips recently, denying takedowns very well. Once Stuart got on top of Aspinall, Aspinall showed some skill. He showed the ability to throw up triangles & armbars & has pretty solid get-ups. In that fight with Austin, Aspinall did sweep Austin, & almost finished him with ground & pound. While he was doing that he got caught sleeping & was submitted with a heel hook. That is Aspinall’s one real loss as the other was a DQ loss due to a 12-6 elbow.
Jake Collier
Age: 31
Height: 6’3
Weight:
Reach: 78.5”
Gym: No Excuses MMA
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 3-3
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 2 Years 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +195
Jake Collier is making his return to the UFC after nearly 3 years away from the sport. Collier suffered a couple injuries & had to go through a USADA suspension. He was scheduled to face Tom Aspinall in March, but Covid shut that down. When you try to find anything out about Collier online it’s very hard. He is moving up to HW for this fight, but I haven’t been able to find any photos of how he looks or who’s he’s been training with. Collier was a huge guy who sucked a lot of weight. He was fighting at 185 for a portion of his UFC career, but his last two have been at LHW. The last time we saw him in the octagon he did pick up a win over Marcel Fortuna. Collier has been in the UFC since 2014 & will have a big experience edge here. Collier is a tough, gritty guy who likes to make fights dirty. He comes forward, throws jabs, one-twos, a lot of hooks & overhands. Collier will throw a lot of kicks; Hard leg kicks, front & round kicks to the body. He has tricky high kicks. He will throw a lot spinning backfists & kicks to the body. He is very tough, durable, throws a lot of volume & loves a war. Collier wears guys down & takes them out late. He has five KO/TKO’s. Collier is very hittable though, & his footwork isn’t the best. All his output leaves him available to be hit & he goes to the well with the spins too much. I also think Aspinall is just much cleaner & tighter with his boxing, while Collier throws wide. Collier has been finished by strikes twice.
Jake Collier is a scrappy guy in the grappling realm as well. He is dangerous in the clinch with knees. He is pretty good at getting the tight waist & circling to the back. Collier has average takedown defense & will make opponents work for them. He is pretty good in the scrambles. Collier is going to be at a big disadvantage with the size & Jiu-Jitsu aspects of this fight. He will spin & give his back, & if he gets taken down by Aspinall, I think he could be in trouble. Collier does have three submissions of his own & has been submitted just one time. He has great cardio & wears guys down. That’s his path to victory here, try to extend the fight & test Aspinall’s cardio.
Collier hasn’t fought in almost 3 years, he used to fight at 185 lbs, and this will be his Heavyweight debut. There is just no way I could trust him at this point and I think this is favorite or pass on the betting line. Aspinall will be the bigger guy here and he looked pretty decent. He has solid boxing and I expect him to have a big power edge here. I think he is going to be able to keep this fight on the feet and either win a striking decision or put Collier away.
I like Aspinall in this one. He does have a nice -115 ITD line and I think he has a solid shot at an early KO where he scores 100+. He could be the guy that knocks off someone in the $9k range and I want to be overweight to him if possible for that reason. I will spread my exposure around on the favorites but Aspinall is probably a top 3-5 play on this slate for me. Collier is in play for GPPs as well I just have no clue what to really expect from him here, so I would rather invest elsewhere. I won’t say he is a full fade, but I surely won’t force him onto any lineups and if I don’t end up with him when I finish 20 lineups then I am fine with that. He is an underdog with a shot though and now he is a HW so maybe the power is there, and he can get the early KO that breaks the slate.
Winner – Tom Aspinall via 1st round (T)KO
Nicolas Dalby $9,200 vs Jesse Ronson $7,000
Nicolas Dalby
Age: 35
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 74.5”
Gym: Rumble Sports
From: Denmark
UFC Record: 2-2-1
Fight Matrix: 31
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -260
Nicolas Dalby enters this spot as a big favorite. He is coming off the win over Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira where he gutted it out. Dalby was expected to face Danny Roberts in this spot, but with Roberts pulling out, he’s facing a newcomer in Jesse Ronson. Dalby is an aggressive, forward pressure striker who starts rounds very quickly. Dalby uses a wide stance, a lot of feints & explosion. He will feint his way into range & then explode into a combination. He has a nice, long jab. He will close the distance with fast, straight punch combos. Dalby also has a nice left hook & overhand right. Dalby will also switch stances mid combination & catch opponents. Dalby has nice, inside leg kicks. He ends a lot of combinations with question mark kicks. He will throw some nice round kicks to the body & head. Dalby will stay in opponent’s face & keep the volume high. He has excellent cardio & that’s how he breaks a lot of opponents. He will pour it on with punch combinations when he gets his range & puts punches & kicks together well. Dalby is very hittable. He is right in front of opponents & doesn’t move his head. Dalby has taken a ton of damage throughout his career & I do feel he is a little chinny. There is still no quit in Dalby & he is a battler. Dalby has 6 KO/TKO’s. I do feel he looked much better in his last fight. Dalby has not been finished yet in his career.
Nicolas Dalby’s defensive grappling is a little questionable. He has only average takedown defense. Dalby’s striking style of exploding in causes him to square his hips a lot & gives up easy single & double leg entries. Dalby also is always crashing into the clinch. Dalby’s takedown defense against the cage is also not good. Instead of defending the takedowns & disengaging, he will look for switches & low percentage reversals that put him on his back. Dalby will also throw un setup kicks that can be used to take him down. When Dalby is put on his back, he is not the best. Peter Sobotta was able to pass his guard like butter & really do damage on the mat. He is hard to hold down & will work to get-up. He did get a bit of a gift of a standup in his last match when he was taken down in round 3. A strength of Nicolas Dalby is his cardio. He is able to continue to get back to his feet & not allow opponents to rest for long periods. When his opponents become tired, that’s when he can hit a switch & take the back or dominant position & go to work. Dalby had a fight recently vs Phil Mulpeter where he was down 2-0 due to the wrestling, but tired Mulpeter out & knocked him out in round 3. Mulpeter isn’t a very high-level opponent though & it wasn’t good that it was so close. Dalby is active in the clinch offensively. He will throw nice, heavy knees to the body & head & look for head kicks off the breaks. He has nice body lock takedowns. He tends to be stronger than a lot of his opponents & be able to maneuver them around. Dalby has a pretty good top game & good ground & pound. He will look for arm triangles. In Dalby’s match against Ross Houston, he was able to control Houston on the mat for a large portion of the fight. Dalby has 4 submissions & has never been finished in his career.
Jesse Ronson
Age: 34
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: Adrenaline MMA & Fitness
From: Canada
UFC Record: 0-3
Fight Matrix: 97
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +220
Jesse Ronson has finally earned his way back to the UFC. Ronson was cut from the promotion in 2014 after three consecutive split decision losses. Ronson fought a killer’s row in his first three UFC fights in Kevin Lee, Francisco Trinaldo & Michel Prazeres. Ronson has been a bit up & down since getting cut from the UFC only going 8-5. His five losses have coming to quality competition, but he really hasn’t defeated anyone of note in his career. Whenever he gets that step up, he tends to struggle. Now he is moving up to 170 lbs, to take on a pretty big guy. Ronson is a pretty technical striker. He throws sharp punches & heavy low kicks. Ronson has nice jabs & straight shots to the body & head. He throws nice straights followed by short hooks. He dropped his last opponent with a very nice left hook. He throws nice power hooks to the body. Ronson will throw some front & round kicks to the body. He has a tricky head kick. Ronson is flat footed, a bit hittable & not as dynamic as Dalby. He is very good with the basics. He does have big power with ten KO/TKO’s. He has only been finished by strikes twice.
Jesse Ronson is not a bad grappler. He has good takedowns in the clinch. He will throw some heavy knees to the body & head. On the ground, Ronson is aggressive & hunts for submissions. When he takes the back, he will finish the fight most of the time. He has six career rear naked chokes & seven submissions. Ronson has pretty good takedown defense in space. He sprawls well & has heavy hips. Ronson can be taken down in the clinch. He was hip thrown multiple times in that fight. Ronson is not bad off his back but can be held down. He has only been submitted one time. Ronson is a vet. He knows how to pace himself, has seen it all, & should be ready for the moment.
Dalby should be the better fighter everywhere here. I think he is going to be the fighter striking at a higher pace, and I would say he is more dangerous on the feet and the ground as well. I don’t see him dominating anywhere though so this line could be a bit high. I could see this being a close 15-minute fight but Ronson is coming up a weight class for this one and Dalby should do enough to get his hand raised and possibly even get a clear 30-27.
Fight Goes To Decision on this one is -185 and I do expect Dalby to get the win here. I don’t really see how he scores highly in a decision, so this fight is pretty much a fade for me. I think Ronson is in play as a live dog I just don’t like him enough to think he has a slate breaking ceiling, so I think I would X out both sides with 20 or less lineups.
Winner – Nicolas Dalby via Unanimous Decision
Francisco Trinaldo $8,500 vs Jai Herbert $7,700
Francisco Trinaldo
Age: 41
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: Constrictor Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 15-6
Fight Matrix: 17
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -145
Francisco Trinaldo just continues to keep hanging around. At 41 years old the man has won back to back fights & enters a favorite to win three in a row. In fights where Trinaldo closed as the betting favorite in the UFC he is 11-1. You do always have to look at where the fights are taking place though. In the UFC, Trinaldo has fought in Brazil 16 times. In those fights Trinaldo has a beastly record of 13-3. Trinaldo has fought outside of Brazil in the UFC just five times. In those five fights he is only 2-3. He has lost his last two fights outside of Brazil, & the last time he won somewhere else was vs Yancy Medeiros in 2016. Trinaldo is a counter striker on the feet who wants to walk opponents down, draw out attacks & pounce. That has been his downfall in a couple fights. He can let fighters potshot & move on him & lose decisions. That happened most recently against Alexander Hernandez, but I honestly thought that was a robbery. James Vick was able to implement a similar game plan. Trinaldo has dangerous counters; Counter hooks, overhands, knees up the middle, & nice kicks. His jab is excellent & he seems to land it a lot in fights. He will counter with it to the body & head combinations, & hook, cross combos. He will walk opponents into head kicks & spinning kicks. In exchanges, Trinaldo can get clipped with some straight shots, but his chin is very good. He did get sat down by James Vick in the first round. Trinaldo has never been finished by strikes. He has 8 KO/TKO’s.
Trinaldo is going to be the better grappler in this matchup for sure. Trinaldo is extremely physical & good in the clinch, & good with defensive wrestling. Trinaldo can throw guys around in the clinch & batter them with knees & elbows. Trinaldo has great takedown defense, heavy hips and will grab the neck & snap opponents down. He can be taken down by well-timed blast doubles, but I doubt Herbert wants anything to do with the grappling. Trinaldo is extremely good at blending his clinch strikes & takedowns. He will batter guys in the clinch, cutting them open & taking them out. He has done this to Paul Felder, Ross Pearson & Yancy Medeiros. Trinaldo doesn’t have great traditional wrestling shots & won’t shoot them much. When he can get into the clinch & get his hands connected, Trinaldo will circle to the back, get slams, mat returns & get into side control. On top, Trinaldo has great control & ground & pound. He has big punches & elbows & can take guys out. He has a really good arm triangle & guillotine. I am worried he may be able to go hard with grappling early & get a submission. The issue is Trinaldo tends to gas out when he grapples, so he doesn’t use it much. Trinaldo has five submission victories. He’s been submitted three times himself.
Jai Herbert
Age: 32
Height: 6’1
Weight: 155
Reach: N/A
Gym: Team Renegade BJJ
From: England
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 79
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: +125
Jai Herbert is drawing a big name in his UFC debut. The company must have a lot of faith in him because he was originally scheduled to another beast in Marc Diakiese. Herbert has won six fights in a row five via KO/TKO. He is the cage warriors LW champion & looks to be finding his footing in MMA. At 32 years old he should be in his prime. Herbert is a tall, rangy striker who will have a significant height & reach advantage in this fight. Herbert’s striking is really good. He has excellent footwork & head movement. Herbert has really nice fluid hands. He has a fast, snappy jab to the body & head. His straight-right hand is a piston. He will shoot it to the body & head, & it’s just extremely accurate. He will throw that straight & follow with a left hook. He lands these straights & tight hooks right behind the ear that hurt his opponents. He will come in with nice lead uppercuts. At range when he is moving & pot shotting with long shots, he’s dangerous. He is very good at picking & pulling with shots & keeping the volume very high. Hebert has excellent kicks as well; Very fluid kicks to all parts of the body. He is mostly a puncher though. Herbert can sometimes pull back with his chin high. That’s how he got caught & KO’d in his one pro loss. Herbert is very aggressive, & when he gets fighters against the cage, he will sit in front & exchange. He mostly does a good job of staying long, but sometimes can get wild & clipped. He got clipped a bit & stunned in his last fight in that scenario vs Cain Carrizosa. Herbert has a pretty strong chin & absorbed some solid shots. He has 8 career KO/TKO’s himself & has one shot power.
Jai Herbert is not a grappler. In the clinch, he is dangerous with his Muay Thai knees & elbows. He will try to catch guys coming in with knees or uppercuts as they shoot in. He battered his last opponent in the clinch & ultimately knocked him out with a brutal knee. He landed a clinch takedown of his own in that match. Herbert can be taken down though. In his fight with Steve O’Keefe, he was taken down twice against the cage early. O’Keefe who’s a strong black belt was able to rough Herbert up a bit on the ground. He landed some decent ground & pound, transitioned to some good positions, even mounting & taking the back. Herbert stayed calm though & eventually worked his way back to his feet. He has a very good mount escape & doesn’t accept bottom position. Even in his fight with Jack Grant, he was taken down a couple times, but showed improved defense. He showed a good top game in that fight, nice guard passing ability, good floating, & ground & pound. When he gets up, he attacks right away & doesn’t give opponents time to rest. His wrestling definitely needs some improvement though. Herbert has just one submission in his career. Herbert has only seen the score cards one time. He is a sniper & usually gets guys out of there.
Herbert is making his UFC debut here and he looks pretty decent. Trinaldo is a tough test and should have the edge in power, wrestling, and experience. Herbert looks lighter on the feet though and probably has the better overall striking in this spot. I would expect him to be the guy throwing more volume, but he would more so add up punishment with his shots where Trinaldo only needs one big shot to land. I do expect this fight to mainly play out on the feet though and at these odds I have to say it is dog or pass.
This is going to be Herbert or pass for me. Trinaldo has too low of output for me to trust him at a favorites salary and I think the only way he ends up on the optimal is with a knockout, or multiple takedowns. He hasn’t been doing either of those lately, so I will just take my chances and fade him here. Herbert is in play in all formats though and I think he gets this win by landing more shots. I don’t see him getting the KO or even scoring well in a decision, so I don’t think he is a lock for the optimal in a win, but he is still one of my favorite underdog targets and I will be sure to have exposure to him, and likely overweight to the field. I do think Trinaldo will be very low owned and Rhys McKee did knock Herbert out cold when they fought, so I think for ownership purposes you can take shots on Trinaldo in large field GPPs. I just don’t see me making enough lineups to pull that trigger.
Winner – Jai Herbert via Split Decision
Khamzat Chimaev $9,800 vs Rhys McKee $6,400
Khamzat Chimaev
Age: 26
Height: 6’2
Weight: 170
Reach: 75”
Gym: Allstars Training Center
From: Sweden
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 110
Last Fought: 10 Days
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -1250
Khamzat Chimaev is returning just two weeks after his destruction of John Phillips. Chimaev will be making his move down to his natural weight class of 170 lbs for this one, where he should be a monster. Chimaev is a training partner of Alex Gustafsson, coming out of Allstars training center. He is 6’2, tall & rangy. He is good at using his jab & low kicks to maintain distance. Chimaev is usually super aggressive though & closes distance with tight one-twos. He has a nice one-two, left right hook combination. He has some decent kicks. Chimaev dropped Ikrim Aliskerov with a jab, & ultimately knocked him out with a beautiful slip uppercut. It’s hard to say truly how good Chimaev’s striking is because I haven’t seen much of it. He is very aggressive, closing the distance with strikes & working to get the fight to the mat. That game plan will serve him well in this fight. Chimaev has 3 KO/TKO’s in his career, & in the one fight he struck predominately, he showed good things.
Khamzat Chimaev is a very good grappler. He looked exactly as advertised in his debut. He is super aggressive on the mat. Chimaev is a Swedish National Champion wrestler. He has been able to out wrestle Georgia State champion wrestler Sidney Wheeler, & combat sambo champion Ikram Aliskerov. He has good body lock trips. He will hit nice double legs. Against John Phillips, he hit a double leg within the first ten seconds of both rounds. In top position, he is a beast. He will get into dominant positions & rain down thunderous shots. He is very good at trapping wrists when he gets to the back or wrestling ride position & just raining shots until the fight gets called. He was in that wrestling ride position practically the whole fight his last time out. He was landing nice ground & pound while searching for front chokes & rear nakeds. I have seen him choke more than one opponent unconscious. He had a 10-7 round where he dominated on the mat before finishing in round two. He was able to hit a nice darce choke in the second & close the show. He took virtually no damage & should be ready to go here. Chimaev has four career submissions. He is very confident already calling for fights with names like Cowboy Cerrone. If he can win two fights in three weeks, he will definitely announce himself as a player in this division.
Rhys McKee
Age: 24
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: N/A
Gym: Next Generation I.M.M.A
From: Ireland
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 186
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +800
Rhys McKee is a tall, rangy, Irish kid with a 10-2-1 record. He has balls to step up here & take this match with a beast like Chimaev on short notice. McKee is used to being the taller guy in his fights & using his range to win. In this fight, he will actually be the shorter fighter. On the feet, McKee has a nice jab. He uses it early & often. He throws nice one-twos down the pipe. He will throw some jab, overhand rights. McKee dropped his last opponent with a jab & then finished him off with ground & pound. He will throw some tricky front kicks & high kicks. He likes to back guys up, cut the cage off, make it small & then pick at them from his range. He throws more stinging punches. McKee stands straight up & down though & is hittable. Fighters can come over the top of his jabs & straights & land on him. McKee stands heavy on his lead leg as well. McKee is durable, & when he gets hit, he is good at closing the distance & tying up to survive. McKee has 7 KO/TKO’s himself.
If you were to pinpoint the main weakness in McKee’s game, it would be grappling. McKee can struggle with fighters who push him to the cage & look to take him down. He doesn’t have the best clinch or double leg takedown defense against the cage. His double leg defense is not good. I have seen McKee hit a couple offensive takedowns against the cage himself. He has good trips in the clinch. He has good knees. He’s been able to use his height to create scrambles & reverse position. He has a good guillotine he will counter takedown attempts with. When he gets put on his back though, he can be controlled & dominated. We saw this in his last loss to Terry Brazier. McKee doesn’t have the best get-ups & exposes his back to stand up. He is fairly good at denying the hooks & getting back up when he does that. McKee will roll for legs as well. When fighters try to take his back, he will look to create a scramble, reverse & take top position. I have seen him take the back himself in some scrambles. All in all, he needs to treat the ground like Lava vs Chimaev. McKee is a tough guy, won’t stop moving & or give up, but Chimaev is light years ahead of him in terms of wrestling & doing damage or finding the submission on top. McKee has three submissions himself & has never been subbed. McKee has good cardio & is a veteran by now. He has won the BAMMA belt, defeating Jai Herbert who is also on this card. McKee has never won a decision. In two decisions in his career he has lost one & had a draw. This is a very stiff test for him in his debut here.
Chimaev is making his return after making the world think he is the next Khabib two weeks ago. This guy could very well be legit and maybe even a contender with his ground game. He looks like he can have the ground edge over most guys in the UFC, but he had a test in his debut that was going to offer nothing on the ground. I don’t think any of his wins look that easy going forward, but I am still high on him and this looks like a handpicked fight to get him another win. McKee is going to likely need a knockout or a submission off his back to get the upset here. No chance would I lay over -1000 on Chimaev here but he is the pick.
Chimaev is the most expensive fighter I think I have ever seen since DK made the rule and format changes. He did come out and dominate John Phillips but that was expected so I didn’t learn much extra in that fight and now everybody is uber high on him. This is another great matchup for him to get a dominant win, so he is still in play at this high salary, I just don’t think he is a must like I am sure others will. He is probably a lock in cash games, but I would think with 15-fights to work with, he needs to be the top scorer to be on the optimal lineup. I am sure he still makes close to half of my lineups or more, I just don’t think we can go all-in on this guy and if he didn’t even get 10x it wouldn’t blow my mind. However, this is still Chimaev or pass for me and I won’t be taking any shots on McKee. I think he needs a finish to get the win here and I don’t think he has the power on the feet and I don’t see him getting a sub. He will be the lowest owned fighter on the card though so if you think he gets the KO then he is your path to the $100k.
Winner – Khamzat Chimaev via 1st round Submission
Alex Oliveira $8,700 vs Peter Sobotta $7,500
Alex Oliveira
Age: 32
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 76.5”
Gym: Tata Fight Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 10-6-1
Fight Matrix: 36
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -175
Alex Oliveira finally got back in the win column in March defeating Max Griffin by split decision. Prior to that Oliveira had lost three consecutive fights. Cowboy is an action fighter that has been around for years, & it’s looking like he’s on his last legs. If he wants to prove he’s not done yet, he needs to not only win here but make a statement. Alex Oliveira is a cobra. He is super dangerous, athletic, & looks to land one shot kill shots. Oliveira is long, rangy & likes to counter punch. He has heavy, low calf kicks. He holds his hands low to try to goad opponents into throwing, so he can counter with his straights. Oliveira has a long one-two. He will throw nice front kicks to the body. Oliveira throws a very dangerous, counter uppercut. He closes distance very quickly & is dangerous with blitz attacks. Oliveira throws some nice round kicks to the head. Oliveira is very hittable himself. He struggles to defend against jabs & straights. His chin is slowly eroding & he isn’t as durable as he once was. He has only been finished one time by strikes but taken a lot of damage. He still has that crazy warrior spirit though & is just as wild. He is dangerous & can turn the lights out on any fighter at any moment. Oliveira has 12 KO/TKO’s.
Alex Oliveira is a dangerous grappler as well. In the clinch, he has nasty elbows & knees. He will post & throw heavy elbows. Oliveira will look for trips & body locks. He will shoot in on double legs. On top, Oliveira has heavy ground & pound. Oliveira can get sloppy transitioning & get reversed. He can be taken down himself as well in the clinch. He has pretty good sprawls & underhooks. He can overextend on punches & get taken down if fighters time level changes well. Oliveira is not that good off his back. He can be controlled & dominated. Max Griffin made the fight very close with his wrestling, controlling Oliveira for periods in the first & third round. Oliveira does have good guillotines, nice rear naked chokes & good ground & pound. Oliveira has been submitted three times himself. He seems to slow down now in fights & doesn’t have great cardio. He is tough enough to keep pushing, but you can see he’s aging.
Peter Sobotta
Age: 33
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 75”
Gym: Planet Eater
From: Germany
UFC Record: 4-5
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 2 Year 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +155
Peter Sobotta is set to make his return after nearly 2.5 years away from the sport. Sobotta hasn’t fought since March of 2018 where he was finished with one second left on the clock vs Leon Edwards. Sobotta has had to deal with some major hand injuries that have kept him away from the sport. At only 33 years old he still has time to come back & make an impact. His activity has kept him from climbing the ranks. He has been in the UFC exclusively since 2014, & only has had six fights. Sobotta actually made his UFC debut all the way back in 2009. He was cut after a three-loss streak but worked his way back & is 4-2 in his second six fight stint. Peter Sobotta is actually a really good fighter though. He is technically sound both on the feet & on the ground. Sobotta is a southpaw striker. He has a really nice jab. He throws nice one-twos down the middle. His straight-left is probably his best punch. He has a nice shovel hook uppercut he throws. Sobotta has nasty front & round kicks to the body. He is pretty good at catching & countering kicks. Sobotta landed a nasty knee that knocked out Ben Saunders in his last win. He has good lateral movement, pull counters & is pretty defensively sound. He is a pretty good counterpuncher. He doesn’t take a lot of risks & is just a tricky guy. He is very durable. His only TKO losses were when he got hit with a liver kick against Nicolas Dalby & couldn’t recover & getting finished by ground & pound with one second left vs Leon Edwards. In his fight with Leon Edwards, he got dropped, recovered seemingly right away & almost caught an armbar in the first round. He is a tough guy. Sobotta has 5 KO/TKO wins.
Peter Sobotta is an excellent Jiu-Jitsu black belt. He has very good level changes. He will throw some straight shots, & level change into really well-timed body locks. His top game is awesome. Sobotta has great guard passing & tremendous top control. He will get to half guard, get the head & arm position, & use that to pass. He is very good at moving to side control, getting the knee on belly position, & applying heavy top pressure. When he gets to mount, he will rain down shots. He has very good back takes. When Sobotta takes the back, he is very dangerous. He has a lot of rear naked choke victories. Sobotta dominated Nicolas Dalby in their match. Controlling him on top for a large portion of all three rounds. Sobotta’s takedown defense is very solid. He has a good counter guillotine. When he gets taken down, he has a really threatening guard. He has nice triangles & armbars. In his last match vs Leon Edwards, he swept & took Edwards’ back by attacking a kimura. Late in the fight Leon Edwards was able to get to a dominant position, trap Sobotta’s wrist & pound him out. Before that Sobotta was very competitive & IMO won the second round. Sobotta has ten career submissions. He has finished 15 of his 17 wins.
I give Cowboy Oliveira the advantage on the feet here, but the ground game is going to be close and possibly the edge to the dog. On the mat, I would give the wrestling edge to Cowboy but the grappling and submission edge to Sobatta. I would say this fight is close enough to call it dog or pass at this line, but we haven’t seen Sobatta in 2.5 years and I really have no idea what to expect here. Generally, I think this is an underdog shot I would take at these odds, but the time away from the sport might scare me away from a bet on this one. I do think this fight will hit the mat more than once though and the submission opportunities could still be there, so I will still take him as an underdog pick.
This is a fight I like both sides of on DraftKings because I think both guys have clear paths to the optimal lineup. Cowboy is going to have the edge on the feet here and I think he could knock Sobatta out in any round. He is hard to trust though, and I think Sobatta can get a finish there even if he is the one that is taken down. I see him having a decent edge on the ground here and I think he could sub Cowboy in any round. I don’t feel confident in picking which of those outcomes happen, but I do think this ends ITD with one of those two happening. Sobatta is my preferred play because he is cheaper, and I am picking him to get the upset. I will look to be overweight to the field on Sobatta here, but I also want to be in line with the field on Cowboy because I like this fight as a whole. Not an all-in fight, but it will be in more than half my lineups. I don’t trust either side enough for cash games though so probably GPP only for this one.
Winner – Peter Sobatta via 2nd round Submission
Gadzhimurad Antigulov $8,200 vs Paul Craig $8,000
Gadzhimurad Antigulov
Age: 33
Height: 5’11
Weight: 205
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: Gorets FT
From: Russia
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +110
Gadzhimurad Antigulov was a hyped prospect but has faltered a bit. After blitzing through his first two opponents in the UFC, Antigulov has lost two in a row getting finished in both. His last fight he was finished in under one minute. He hasn’t fought in over a year but should be motivated here. He has said he is going to go in there & get the win for Khabib’s father. Antigulov’s striking leaves a lot to be desired. He isn’t the worst athlete & does have decent footwork. He has a nasty straight-right hand. He closes the distance extremely quickly with it & it’s fast, accurate & he has put people’s lights’ out with it. Antigulov likes to enter range with a flurry of powerful hooks or overhands. He crashes with the punches & tries to back fighters towards the cage. Antigulov actually hits hard & has good short-range power. Antigulov at range really struggles & is super hittable. If he can’t get the finish with his wrestling sometimes he will quit when the going gets tough. He has been finished by strikes four times & twice in a row. Antigulov does have four career knockouts & has the power edge in this fight.
Gadzhimurad Antigulov is a submission artist & very strong wrestler. Antigulov has great timing on his single & double legs. His single leg is his best takedown. He will go to the high crotch single again & again & is very proficient with it. Antigulov is very good at controlling & mauling fighters in the clinch against the cage. He has solid dirty boxing inside. Antigulov is good at mat returning opponents when they stand up. When he gets on top, he is super aggressive. He is always hunting for the neck, whether he wraps up a guillotine or takes the back & gets the rear naked choke. He will hunt for armbars from the back mount as well. Antigulov doesn’t have a great gas tank though & relies on his wrestling too much. If fighters can stand up from under him a few times, he gets very tired. He basically quit after getting tired vs Ion Cutelaba. Antigulov is very dangerous in round one himself though, & his submission game is strong. He has 15 career submission wins. He has been submitted two times very early in his career.
Paul Craig
Age: 32
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Scottish Hit Squad
From: Scotland
UFC Record: 4-4-1
Fight Matrix: 44
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: 1Draw
Betting Odds: -130
Paul Craig is a strange guy. His UFC career has been very odd. When he loses, he tends to get destroyed in the first round. When he wins a lot of the time he is grabbing victory from the jaws of defeat. His last fight he had a draw with Shogun Rua. Paul Craig has improved his striking a lot, but it’s still not very good. He does have the range in this fight. He will throw the jab & one-two. He likes to throw counter hooks as he leans back. In his fight with Shogun, he landed long combinations when he backed Shogun against the cage. Craig throws a lot of kicks; Inside, outside low kicks, round & front kicks to the body & high kicks. He throws a lot of spinning kicks, almost too many. Craig is confident & willing to throw. His chin is right in the air though, & he throws a lot of naked kicks. Craig has been knocked out three times in his career. He only has one career TKO.
Paul Craig is an opportunistic submission guy. He is mostly a guard player. He does have some decent level changes & double legs. I doubt he will look for takedowns in this fight with Antigulov though. Craig’s clinch game isn’t the best. He is hittable in the clinch & easily taken down. He does have some decent hip throws, & dangerous knees. Craig gets taken down a lot off his naked kicks. On his back he is very comfortable. He does have a threatening guard & has hit some triangles in the UFC. When Craig can’t find the submission, he is too comfortable on his back & won’t stand up. He got a draw his fight with Shogun Rua because of this. He shot a horrible double leg in round three & ended on bottom. Craig also allows himself to get backed up & controlled against the cage too easily. Against Antigulov he can’t just stay on his back. Craig obviously is going to have the cardio advantage here. He has fought the better guys & is confident vs anyone.
This is a weird one to call. Craig is not very good, but he is slick off his back and he is probably more active than Antigulov. I think Antigulov is going to have the wrestling and power edge here, but he is going to want the fight on the mat and that is where Craig is at his best. I think Antigulov is going to need a TKO or submission finish here because I think the longer this fight goes the more it will favor Craig, but I expect Antigulov to land a very early takedown and try to get the round 1 finish, so I will just take that as my prediction. Really wouldn’t want to lay juice on either of these guys though so maybe wait for + money.
This is my favorite fight on the entire card to target because I don’t see this one hitting the scorecards, and this is the mid-range fight of the week. I really don’t even see this fight going past round 2, so I think the winner gets more than 10x and both guys could finish in round 1. I’ll say Antigulov is probably my preferred play because I think he has the higher ceiling and I see him landing the takedown early where he either finishes or doesn’t and ends up losing. He is most likely around 100-points in a win I would think where Craig is going to have to weather the early storm and if he does then he probably gets a finish himself. I am going to get this fight in more than 80% of my lineups most likely and I will probably be around 40% for each guy. Not taking any stands here because I have no clue how this will end, I just think it ends early. Wouldn’t touch either sides in cash games though so GPP only.
Winner – Gadzhimurad Antigulov via 1st round (T)KO
Marina Rodriguez $8,600 vs Carla Esparza $7,600
Marina Rodríguez
Age: 33
Height: 5’6”
Weight: 115
Reach: 65”
Gym: Thai Brasil Floripa
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 2-0-2
Fight Matrix: 10
Last Fought: 8 months
Last Five: 3-0-2
Current Streak: 1D
Betting Odds: -175
Marina Rodriguez is an incredibly sharp striker. She is good at striking going forwards & backwards, playing the range game very well. Rodriguez has a nasty jab & super straight punches. Her one-two is a piston. She will mix in long hooks with both hands that make up a lot of distance. Rodriguez will blitz forward with a one-two or right hook, straight-left hand combination followed by low kicks. She has excellent front kicks to the body & head along with oblique kicks to the legs. She will also throw sidekicks with her back leg. All her kicks tend to come with the back leg. When Rodriguez gets confident, she will start to close the distance with superman punches, elbows, & spinning kicks. She has excellent elbows & knees in close range that can bust opponents open. Her Muay Thai clinch is excellent. Rodriguez doesn’t have the fastest feet & can do a lot of standing in front of opponents. Randa Markos had success with her striking by pressing forward & throwing combinations. Rodriguez doesn’t move her head much & if opponents can walk through her shots & counter, she is there to be hit. Markos also established the takedown early, & had success feinting the takedown & coming over the top with hook or overhand combinations. In her match with Torres, I feel Torres gave her the exact fight she wanted. Torres was trying play the outside game, dart in & dart out, & Rodriguez was able to implement her game & just pick her off from distance. Rodriguez is a much better striker than Esparza though.
Marina Rodriguez is an average grappler. Her clinch game is elite & she can really batter opponents with elbows & knees. She will get a great frame with her forearm on the head to create distance & just go to town. She will force opponents to give up takedown attempts with the elbows along with really breaking their posture effectively with the frame. Rodriguez showed good balance & excellent takedown defense against the cage in that match. She also countered a double leg with a nasty guillotine which forced Torres to go to her back. Rodriguez wasn’t able to hold Torres down, but never gave up a takedown either. She dominated a very strong clinch fighter in the clinch proving she is one of the stronger athletes in the division. When she faced Randa Markos, Markos was able to take her down with the head & arm in the clinch more than once. In terms of being on the mat, Rodriguez has shown weaknesses. Cynthia Calvillo & Randa Markos were able to dominate her in top position, mount her & really beat her up. Rodriguez wasn’t able to stop Calvillo or Markos from passing to dominant positions & couldn’t get close to standing up off bottom. She isn’t a fish out of water on the mat & can defend herself & survive, but she just isn’t very good.
Carla Esparza
Age: 32
Height: 5’1”
Weight: 115
Reach: 63”
Gym: Team Oyama
From: California
UFC Record: 7-4
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 2.5 months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +155
Esparza is a much-improved striker. Esparza has much better footwork on the feet. She does a good job of using head movement & feinting her way inside & being in & out. She will circle to the right & walk opponents into heavy leg kicks, & straight & right hooks. She will throw an inside leg kick, overhand left combination. Carla will wain forward with hook combinations. She does a good job of faking level changes & throwing body & head shots off it. She is great at blitzing forward, throwing in combination & not getting tired. She will throw superman punches & front kicks. Esparza has 3 KO/TKO’s. She has been finished by strikes twice in her career.
Carla Esparza is an NCAA college wrestler. She has shown that defeating good Jiu-Jitsu fighters with top control such as Rose Namajunas & Virna Jandiroba. Esparza has nice double leg takedowns & good top control. She doesn’t have devastating ground & pound, but she will move to dominant positions & control on top. Her takedown defense is not bad, but she can be taken down. She can blitz in & give her hips away at times with her striking. She does do a good job of exiting with knees to the body if she can see the takedown coming. Off her back, I don’t really like Esparza. She doesn’t have good get-ups & can get exhausted having to fend off takedown attempts. She is tough, will never give up, & continue to scramble & try to win the fight even if she’s exhausted or getting dominated. Esparza has taken down all 10 of her UFC opponents & isn’t a slouch in the grappling department. Esparza does have 5 submissions & been submitted only once.
This should be a clear striker vs grappler matchup. Rodriguez should win basically every second this fight stays standing. Esparza is going to be looking for takedowns though and Rodriguez can be put on her back and spend too much time there. Carla is going to need to get this fight to the ground enough to win 2 rounds with her wrestling though because I don’t see how she finishes Marina. I think Marina can be active enough off her back to maybe lock up a submission, but she really just needs to get back to her feet and tee off on Carla to get her hand raised here and I think she will. I could also see Marina getting a TKO stoppage in any round.
Rodriguez is my preferred play here, but I don’t know how much of her I will actually get. $8.6k is a fair price tag for her but I think it will be tough for her to get more than 10x there. I do expect Marina to spend time on her back here and that will take away from her ceiling. I think she can still get around 10x in a decision win here, but I think we are more hoping for her to get the TKO win for her to be on the optimal with 15 fights. I will be sure to roster her, but I won’t be making her a priority at all and she is more likely to be the last fighter in my lineup instead of one of the first. Esparza is in play as well because her only real path to victory is to wrestle. She could rack up takedown points and possibly get a submission, but she doesn’t do a lot on the ground for me to think she is going to score well here. I also think she will be a popular underdog because of her obvious path to victory. That will keep me underweight on her, but I think she is a fine play in all formats.
Winner – Marina Rodriguez via Unanimous Decision
Alexander Gustafsson $9,300 vs Fabricio Werdum $6,900
Alexander Gustafsson
Age: 33
Height: 6’5”
Weight: 205
Reach: 79”
Gym: Allstars Training Center
From: Sweden
UFC Record: 10-6
Fight Matrix: 17 LHW
Last Fought: 1 year 1 month
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -330
Alexander Gustafsson is making his debut at HW in the UFC. After retiring & not a lot of success lately he needs to put up or shut up here. Gustafsson has tremendous footwork & lateral movement, & probably the best movement in the division. He is always light on his feet, circling, & giving his opponents a moving target. He never allows fighters to back him against the cage & does a great job of forcing opponents to fight in the center of the octagon. He has great feints & fakes & will land his jab & angle off. He will double & triple up on the jab & sit down on it with power, rocking opponents with it. He has a great jab to the body & he landed quite a few of them against Jones. He has a nasty one-two & was doing a tremendous job of angling off the right hand against Glover Teixeira. He was constantly switching stances & using jabs from both stances & nasty uppercuts. He will throw a check left hook to a straight-right hand & even a right elbow in combination. His hand speed is superb, & he will unload with 3-4 punch combinations in the pocket, angle off, slip & return with big shots opponents don’t see coming. He has nasty inside leg kicks & great front kicks to the body. Gustafsson needs to keep the fight in the center, use his leg kicks & boxing angles, & don’t let Werdum get settled. He has nasty elbows & will throw spinning back elbows into straight-right hands to an uppercut combination. He was ducking his head a lot when circling away against Teixeira & I believe that puts him in danger of getting head kicked if Werdum can time it. Gustafsson in the center at boxing range will be the more effective fighter. His hand speed & footwork are probably the best in the division, & he needs to use that in this match. Gustafsson has 11 KO/TKO’s, & packs good power in his shots. He has an amazing chin proving that over his career only being finished two times by strikes vs Anthony Johnson & Jon Jones. The ground & pound he took in his last match was pretty brutal but didn’t knock him out cold or anything.
Gustafsson is good in the clinch. He likes to punch himself into the double collar toe where he will land hard knees & elbows. He has nice uppercuts in the clinch as well. Gustafsson has proven he is an elite wrestler. He was able take Jon Jones down twice & Daniel Cormier down twice. He has a great reactive double leg & he does a great job of suddenly halting his lateral movement & quickly ducking under. He does a great job of using his left hook to stand his opponents up & then duck under & get the takedown. He is extremely hard to takedown, he has very heavy hips & gets very wide, & even if fighters do get him down, he will slide to the fence & stand back up. He will look for underhooks & does a great job of framing away. In his last match when Jones got the takedown, he looked a level above Gus. He was easily able to get into dominant position & when he took the back he flattened him out & ended the fight. Werdum has a very good top game & Gus needs to stay off his back. On top, he has nasty elbows & solid control. He doesn’t attack with submissions much, & hardly ever is put on his back long enough to see how his BJJ is. He only has 3 submissions & been submitted one time by Phil Davis. Gustafsson should use boxing angles & leg kicks to just constantly offset the rhythm of Werdum & neutralize him. Werdum has struggled with movers & kickers in the past & I feel Gustafsson is deceptively fast.
Fabricio Werdum
Age: 42
Height: 6’4”
Weight: 231
Reach: 77”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 11-6
Fight Matrix: 14
Last Fought: 2.5 months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +270
Fabricio Werdum looked horrible in his return fight. He needs to win here & prove he can still compete in MMA. At his age he may be past it. Werdum likes to start fights off right away with a flying knee or kick. Werdum is much more of a kicker with his striking, but his hands aren’t bad. He has a nice jab he will double & triple up on & a solid one-two. Werdum likes to throw a double jab or one-two followed by a body kick. Werdum will also throw some punches upstairs & then step in with brutal knees to the body. Werdum’s left kick to the body & head are his most dangerous weapons on the feet. He has a nice teip to the body also. Werdum can charge forward recklessly & has been made to pay for that. His speed isn’t what it once was & he needs to realize he can’t take as many risks as he did when he was younger. Werdum has been finished by strikes 3 times & twice in his last three losses.
Fabricio Werdum is one of the most accomplished Jiu-Jitsu practitioners in the sport regardless of weight class. Werdum is a two-time Abu Dhabi HW world champion at the black belt level. He holds some of the biggest submission victories not only in Jiu-Jitsu but in MMA as well. Werdum holds wins via submission over arguably the two greatest HWs of all time. Werdum is a tall guy for the division & uses that to his advantage in the clinch. He likes getting the collar tie & leaning his weight & height on opponents to bring more power into his shots & wear them down. He has a very nice Muay Thai plum as well. Werdum will look for clinch takedowns. Werdum also likes the single leg. He will use the single to pull half guard & sweep to the back as well. Werdum on top usually is excellent at passing the guard. He loves taking the back where he has a lot of setups for rear naked chokes or armbars. In his last fight, he struggled a lot with the guard of Volkov, but that had more to do with height than anything. Werdum also welcomes being on his back. He has one of the best guards in MMA history. He will immediately attack sweeps & submissions & has finished some of the best of all time off of his back. Fighters always have to mind their P’s & Q’s when fighting Werdum. He is a very tricky guy. He will act hurt & flop down & then submit opponents. Werdum has 11 career submissions. He has never been subbed.
On paper, Gustafsson should win a striking match and maybe even knock Werdum out. Werdum is not a great wrestler and Gustafsson should have the takedown defense to keep this fight where he wants, and I think Werdum could be in trouble on the feet based on how he looked in his last fight. Gustafsson just retired though after being submitted by Anthony Smith, and that is not a good look and I think Werdum is much more dangerous than Smith on the ground. I do like Gus here but when fighters start talking about retirement it is hard to trust how into the fight game they really are and if he got submitted again here it wouldn’t really shock me. I’d be careful betting him over 3-1 odds here, but he is still the pick to win and should dominate on the feet.
I have interest in both guys here, but I don’t think either are great plays. I think Gus has more ways to win but his salary is $9.3k, and at that price we probably need a KO. We can’t rely on him to go for or get any takedowns against Werdum, so this should be striking points only and if he doesn’t get the KO I just don’t see how he makes the optimal with only 3-rounds to work with. I think the KO is in play and Vegas has that lined at +165, but he is probably someone who makes 10-20% of my lineups. Werdum might be my preferred play here because I think he is live for the submission win and if he can get that in any round I think he has a good chance at the optimal. He has one of the higher ceilings for the cheap underdogs on the card, so I will probably look to go field weight on him, if not overweight. I don’t see him getting the win but if he does, I like his scoring potential and Gus has not looked good as of late, so I don’t hate targeting against him here. I think you can make a case for either guy in cash games as well, but I think the most likely outcome is that Gus wins and doesn’t get 10x, so I think we can get away from this fight if that is what you see happening as well.
Winner – Alexander Gustafsson via 3rd round (T)KO
Mauricio Rua $9,000 vs Rogerio Nogueira $7,200
Shogun Rua
Age: 38
Height: 6’1”
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 10-9-1
Fight Matrix: 27
Last Fought: 8 months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -185
Shogun is still a very dangerous Muay Thai striker who must be respected. 21 of his 26 wins are by knockout. He is always looking to take someone’s head off. Shogun likes to use leg kicks to find his range, & he will also use them at the end of punching combinations. Rua throws wild, leaping hooks that are extremely dangerous & can put fighters out. He has gotten better at countering with a left hook & he has a nice straight-right hand. He does a great job of catching kicks & returning with overhands, & he can drop fighters with that punch. Rua likes to throw a right hook, low kick combination, & sometimes he will fake the right hand & throw a left hook. He also will throw a nasty lead uppercut, but that is a risky shot that puts him at risk of being countered. His punches looked much slower & his movement was more labored against Smith & his constant knee problems & overall health issues may be catching up to him. He has 21 KO/TKO’s in his career & has been finished by strikes 5 times.
Shogun has used wrestling more in recent fights & isn’t a bad wrestler. He has good body lock takedowns & will shoot double legs as well. He uses timing more than explosion on his shots, & they need to be well-timed or he will not get them usually. Shogun actually has pretty solid takedown defense overall & does a good job of getting his back to the fence where he’s good at defending takedowns. He can get over aggressive & taken down by well-timed double legs. Rua isn’t a submission threat with just one in his career & has been submitted 3 times himself. His gas tank is good & he has been responsible for some of the biggest comebacks in UFC history.
Antonio Nogueira
Age: 44
Height: 6’2”
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: Team Nogueira
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 6-6
Fight Matrix: 26
Last Fought: 1 year 2 months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +160
Nogueira is still a good southpaw boxer & looked very good vs Patrick Cummings & Sam Alvey. He has a very nice jab & a good left hook. He likes to follow up his jab with a left hook, & it has KO power. He does a good job of slipping off center line after throwing his left hand. He does a good job of putting long combinations together in the pocket with left & right hooks. He doesn’t throw many kicks & it makes him able to be out volumed from the outside. He still has a good chin & has only been finished with strikes 3 times. His last finish loss against Ryan Bader was due to being stuck in a position on the ground & taking shots not about taking a concussive blow. He still has solid hand speed & is dangerous striker. When he has an opponent hurt, he will usually finish the fight brutally. He has 8 KO/TKO’s.
Nogueira is not a grappler in the octagon, having only 1 career UFC takedown. He has pretty good takedown defense & does a good job in the clinch. He has nasty knees to the body, dropping & finishing Tito Ortiz with one. He has good hooks to the head & the body inside, & he is very good overall in the clinch. He is a third-degree black belt in Jiu-Jitsu & did a good job of surviving on the floor for 3.5 rounds with Bader, but he hasn’t shown much of it offensively. I feel in this fight he should maybe try to mix it up, but I doubt he will. Nogueira has 5 career submissions, but none since 2009.
Rua has beat Little Nog both times they have faced, and he is 6 years younger. Both guys are towards the end of their careers, but I think Rua is still more durable and less likely to get knocked out, but he is less active and could lose on the scorecards. He was out struck in their last match and against Paul Craig in his last fight, and that is not a good look. Rua can still get takedowns and win rounds that way so I like him as the pick still, he is just hard to trust at this line. I’d still say this is a favorite or pass matchup though because I could see him landing harder shots on the feet, getting takedowns and getting a finish. I just worry about this being a 15-minute striking match and if that is the case then I don’t think there is any value in this line.
I think you can make a case for using either guy here, but I don’t have a lot of interest in this fight. If we are using Lil Nog then we are most likely expecting him to win on the scorecards. That is good to have an underdog this cheap to get any win, I just think it could be a 50-60-point win if that happens and I don’t see that making the optimal. I don’t know that he even makes my pool if I make 20 or less lineups but I also don’t think he is a bad play at all and could even get a KO himself. I don’t mind using Rua to target against the durability of Lil Nog, but we really need the KO or a multiple takedown per round type of fight from him and I don’t want to trust much in that happening with a $9k price tag. I think he still likely makes my pool with 20 or less lineups but it would be a 1-3 lineup type deal because I want to spread my exposure around in the $9k range this week and he is not a top target. I don’t think I would want to trust either guy in cash games, but I wouldn’t talk you off Rua if you wanted him in there. Overall this is a fight I will look to avoid and hope Rua wins a decision.
Winner – Mauricio Rua via 2nd round (T)KO
Robert Whittaker $8,300 vs Darren Till $7,900
Robert Whittaker
Age: 29
Height: 6’0”
Weight: 185
Reach: 73”
Gym: PMA Super Martial Arts Centre
From: Australia
UFC Record: 11-3
Fight Matrix: 3
Last Fought: 9.5 months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -125
Whittaker is a sick striker with a dangerous head kick. Whittaker is more of an outside striker & the battle for distance control will be key in this match. I see Whittaker throwing a lot of inside, outside leg kicks, oblique kicks, sidekicks to the body and other strikes to keep fighters outside. He has a nasty stabbing front kick to the body. Whittaker is light on his feet & very good at bouncing in & out range to land combinations. Whittaker will leap in with his jab & uses it to set up other strikes. He will throw a jab, low kick combination along with a jab, left hook combination. He does an excellent job of peppering his opponents with a few shots & then landed a big shot. Whittaker likes to throw a straight-right hand, then duck under the counter hook & throw a left hook. Whittaker likes to use his front leg to spring into an oblique kick or front left body kick to a left hook combination. When fighters pressure Whittaker, his counter left hook is nasty. Overall, he has one of the best left hands in the UFC. Whittaker has a nasty head kick that he can throw as the aggressor or going backwards. It is very hard to see coming & he has landed it clean on recent opponents. He finished Jacare with the kick & landed it flush on Romero. Whittaker has earned 9 career knockouts, including 4 in 9 wins at MW. Whittaker has a fantastic chin & recoverability. He proved that in his match almost being finished multiple times by Yoel Romero but surviving. He was finished basically twice in his last match, which is alarming. He has taken a lot of damage lately. Whittaker has only been TKO’d twice, one time at 170 by Stephen Thompson.
Whittaker is not an offensive wrestler, but he has some of the best takedown defense in the UFC. Whittaker is a former gold medal winner & the Australian national wrestling championship, & his takedown defense is truly remarkable. He has excellent hips & a great whizzer. He does a great job of bringing his hips back when opponents attempt takedowns & will throw front knees to the body to counter. He does a great job of disengaging the clinch, & just overall is almost impossible to corral. Yoel Romero & Jacare Souza had no success in controlling from top position & I don’t think Till will shoot any takedowns. This fight will play out on the feet. Robert Whittaker has an indomitable spirit & strong cardio. He will be here to fight from beginning until end.
Darren Till
Age: 27
Height: 6’0”
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: Team Kaobon Liverpool
From: Liverpool
UFC Record: 6-2-1
Fight Matrix: 9
Last Fought: 9.5 months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +105
Darren Till is a solid striker. He has a hands low style & keeps a long stance. He has tremendous distance control & does a fantastic job of sliding in & out & controlling range. He has a fantastic jab & will follow it up with a straight-left hand. He is a southpaw & his left hand is nasty. It is super accurate, fast & packs big power. He has nice leg kicks & good oblique kicks. He has great footwork & does an awesome job of cutting off the cage without chasing. If he can get fighters defensive against the cage, he does a good job of landing hooks from whatever side they are trying to exit. He has sick elbows & does a great job of stepping in with them when he has his opponents against the cage. He doesn’t attack the body much & really in his last two fights has only looked for the one-two & straight-left hand. He will use a jab, uppercut or jab, overhand left also, but not much else. He needs to start implementing some different combinations. I feel ending the one-two with the round kick to the head could be effective. Till is dangerous with 10 career KO/TKO’s. He was brutally KO’d for the first time in his career when he faced Jorge Masvidal & he does have a questionable chin.
Darren Till is not an offensive grappler, & looked lost on the mat vs Woodley. He is hard to get inside on due to his distance control & he showed solid takedown defense vs Woodley. He was able to defend all Woodley’s attempts to take him down. He won’t wrestle much, but he did show good ground & pound vs Wendell Oliveira in the UFC. He was dropped by Tyron Woodley & allowed Woodley to land brutal G&P elbows before getting a darce. He showed very bad defense on the ground & needs to work on that. Till has two submissions & has been submitted once himself.
I think this is going to be a fun fight and either guy could get a knockout. I don’t see either looking to take this to the mat unless they are hurt on the feet and looking to buy time, so this should be a 25-minute striking match unless we see that knockout. I think Till could have more one-shot power, but Whittaker is better at putting punches together and landing punishing volume. On average, Whittaker lands 4.77 significant strikes per minute compared to 2.41 from Till. I don’t see the volume from Till changing here because he will still have his bounce around the cage style, so he is going to need to slow Whittaker’s volume down with that style for him to win on the scorecards, I would think. I just think Whittaker is the better overall striker and I think he is more likely to win rounds and get his hand raised if this goes to the scorecards. He is coming off 3 fights where he took a ton of damage, so the KO is the big worry from Till here not knowing how Whittaker’s chin will hold up going forward.
I will be pretty heavy on this fight because of their price tags. With 5-rounds to work with, I have to think the winner gets more than 10x here. Even in a decision win, probably. Either guy could also get a KO and be on the optimal with that, but we only have a -160 FDGTD line. Whittaker is my preferred play because I think he is more likely to score well in a decision and I do like him to get the win. I would think any win from him would put him on the optimal, but he did only score 70 DK points in a 5-round decision win over Yoel. So, it’s not a lock and I think we can fade the fight in all formats for that reason. If Till wins, I would think it would be from a knockout and that puts him very in play as well. I just don’t see Till scoring well in a decision because of his lack of volume and that is a big reason I don’t think he wins this fight. I will probably have this fight in 75% or more of my lineups but I would think it is closer to 45% Whittaker and 30% Till. I think for cash the best option would be to stack it or fade it. I don’t like trusting either guy solo in a fight that Vegas thinks is close to 50/50 so I think we can stack and hope people pick the wrong guy solo, or we can fade it and not really care either way.
Winner – Robert Whittaker via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown & be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building & I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend & enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks & predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice & fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: BigMarleyMMA.com
- Bets are on a 1-5u scale with 1u = $100.
- I am 130-102 for +251.10u (+$25,110) since May 19, 2018 for all premium bets.
