BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC Fight Island 2 Location – Fight Island, Abu Dhabi
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card on Fight Island that will have no fans in attendance due to the pandemic. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in and $150k goes to 1st place with $600k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Serghei Spivac $8,400 vs Carlos Felipe $7,800
Serghei Spivak
Age: 25
Height: 6’3
Weight: 234
Reach: 78”
Gym: Polar Bear Team
From: Moldova
Betting Odds: -170
Serghei Spivak couldn’t extend the win streak in his last fight dropping a decision to Marcin Tybura. Spivak was dominated in the grappling department and controlled by Tybura almost the entire match. Spivak’s record in the UFC is 1-2, but he has fought three guys who have a lot of high level experience. This is a much better fight for someone of his skill & experience level. Both guys are only 25 years old, which is extremely young for HW. Spivak showed improvements with his striking in his last fight. He was throwing sharper, straight punches, and looked to have improved his hand speed. He was throwing nice one-twos down the middle, a good, lead rear uppercut. Spivak was doing a good job of exiting the clinch with hooks over the top. He has fast hand speed & likes to throw shots to get inside mostly. He will throw nice knees & head kicks. He is very good when he backs opponents against the cage. He does a good job of measuring opponents and staying at his range. He will throw nasty standing elbows. He has great cardio & can throw a huge amount of volume out there without getting tired. He does stand heavy on his lead leg & can be leg kicked. He has small legs & I don’t think he will be able to take many low kicks. He was swept off his feet with a kick vs Tuivasa. Spivak is hittable himself & will just back up & shell up against the cage. He was overwhelmed quickly by Walt Harris & taken out. Spivak isn’t a big power guy. Spivak relies on volume & pressure to break opponents. Spivak has 5 submissions in his wins.
Serghei Spivak is going to want to try to grapple heavy in this fight. He has proven he has the cardio to grind for the HW division and needs that once again here. In Spivak’s match with Tai Tuivasa, he landed some very nice throws in the clinch. He was able to land some well-timed double legs off of Tuivasa’s low kicks. Spivak was not able to control position early on & sometimes can make some bad decisions. He will try to get submissions from positions like the scarf hold which I don’t like to see people using. It is very low percentage and risks giving up their back. Tuivasa got very tired in the second round, and Spivak took over ultimately finding an arm triangle. Spivak will keep going & has good enough cardio to get multiple takedowns in one round. He is a small fighter and got mauled in his last match. Marcin Tybura was able to land a couple takedowns, control on top and hold Serghei against the cage. Spivak looked a lot smaller & just couldn’t get Tybura off him. Tybura was able to get his back at one point and largely dominated when he got on top.
Carlos Felipe
Age: 25
Height: 6’1
Weight: 245
Reach: N/A
Gym: Life MMA
From: Brazil
Betting Odds: +150
Carlos Felipe will be making his UFC debut after a long layoff. Since joining the UFC, he has dealt with USADA issues which slowed his career. He hasn’t competed since February of 2018. Felipe is an 8-0 Brazilian prospect, entering a slight underdog here. Felipe is a wild man on the feet. He comes forward and throws with bad intentions. He has good, straight punches and overhands to close distance. Inside he will throw wide, heavy hooks. He has good jabs and one-twos. Felipe has good hand speed for a heavyweight, & nice combos inside. He rips the body well & will throw good volume. Felipe loves the war & is willing to take a punch to give one back. He is a hittable guy, because he will just stand in front and trade, but he has good hand speed for a heavyweight, so he can usually land first. Felipe will try to goad guys in by talking shit dropping his hands and even flicking people off and being crazy mid fight. He will slap fighters & really tries to play the head games. Felipe doesn’t look like he really has one punch knockout power, he is more of a volume guy. Felipe does have 6 KO/TKO’s in 8 wins.
Carlos Felipe is not a great grappler from the limited footage I’ve seen. In reality it’s hard to gauge. I’ve only been able to find two of his pro fights, and the last one I saw was from 2016. He could enter here looking way better. In the matches I watched, he did get controlled against the cage & didn’t look great in the clinch. He held the cage to deny clinch takedowns a couple times & looked like he didn’t have best defense. He is a big, heavy guy, and looks like he has heavy hips. He will use a wide base & the cage to help him stay up. Felipe was never taken down in the matches I watched. He did get some top position, but no takedowns of his own. On top, he didn’t look like much. He seems to not be much of a grappler. Felipe gasses out also & gets progressively sloppier as fights continue. He is green, but confident, and has pretty good boxing. He is going to bring it & go hard for the victory. After nearly 3 years away from the sport I’m sure he’s dying to get back in there.
Felipe hasn’t had an MMA fight in 3 years, but he looks like a guy who is going to go out there and hunt for the KO from the start. I would think Spivac has a big edge in the clinch and on the ground here, but Felipe looks like he could be difficult to get to the mat. I think if Felipe doesn’t get the KO, he probably loses this fight, and not knowing what his cardio will be like, I think Spivac could finish if he gets the fight to the mat. However, I am taking a bunch of shots on underdogs this card, so I will take the new comer to get a 1st round KO.
I love targeting the first fight of the night and I think this could be an important one. I think both sides could come in low owned and they both have paths to the optimal. Felipe should be firing early trying to get that KO and if he gets it in round 1 then we can lock him on the optimal. He is my preferred play for that reason. If he doesn’t get it, my guess is he loses. If Spivac wins, I think it would come through takedowns and possibly a submission. At his price, I want shots on that in case it comes early or in case he racks up takedowns and advances. The worry is that this fight spends too much time in the clinch or against the cage and it being a boring, low scoring fight. I won’t be all in for that reason, but I will probably look to go overweight on both sides so that I am not dead right out of the gates if this ends in round 1.
Winner – Carlos Felipe via 1st round (T)KO
Arman Tsarukyan $8,700 vs Davi Ramos $7,500
Arman Tsarukyan
Age: 23
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: MFP Team
From: Russia
Betting Odds: -200
Arman Tsarukyan evened his UFC record at 1-1 after a successful second outing vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier. The 23-year-old is a phenomenal prospect & looks like a future contender. He is light on his feet, good at pushing forward & feinting while bouncing in & out to pressure intelligently. He will throw jabs to the body & head. He will throw a left hook, an overhand left or a straight-right hand. He has very nice kicks; Inside leg kicks, and round kicks to the body & head. He has nice spinning techniques, such as spinning backfists & spinning back kicks to the body. His boxing is not very good & if opponents can get by his kicks, they can exploit him in close range. He also is heavy on his lead leg. In his last match, OAM landed a lot of kicks & knees to Tsarukyan’s body. Arman has been knocked out one time early in his career. He has 5 knockouts himself.
Arman Tsarukyan is a super grappler. He has an amazing single leg takedown which is what his main entry is. He will use the single to push fighters against the cage & grind. He is pretty good at taking the back from standing. He will also time double legs off naked kicks or catch the kick and take fighters down. He did struggle to take down OAM. In top position, Tsarukyan is active. He will land nice ground & pound punches and elbows from inside opponent’s guards. Tsarukyan will look to pass & get into some dominant positions but is very much content to just stay on top & ride out rounds. He tends to get submissions after he wears fighters out with mat returns and will take the back and choke them. Tsarukyan has great defensive grappling skills as well. He has very good takedown defense, is awesome in scrambles and very hard to hold down. He has very little weaknesses as a fighter. Tsarukyan has five submissions. It will be interesting to see if he wants to takedown Ramos at all or not. Tsarukyan has incredible cardio. He doesn’t slow down & was pushing a hard pace even after eating a ton of body shots in his last fight.
Davi Ramos
Age: 33
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Team Nogueira
From: Brazil
Betting Odds: +170
Davi Ramos suffered only his second career loss at 155 lbs in his last match. He was unsuccessful in his quest to upset Islam Makhachev, but he still very much is a factor in the division. Ramos is an explosive, dangerous guy with finishing skills everywhere the fight goes. Ramos is a little tank & is always matching his opponents. He is a short and compact fighter who can close the distance, and land left and right hooks. He likes to throw the overhand right a lot and will try to set it up behind a jab or left straight. He has big power in his kicks, thudding body kicks, and powerful leg kicks. He should be much more active with his kicking game. He likes to hang back and counter fighters, he will not use much footwork or fakes and feints, but rather just slowly walk opponents down and stay in their face to try to get them to throw so he can counter with a flurry or overhand right. When opponents are pressuring him, he has no problem letting his shots go. He will throw heavy hooks & overhands in combination. He has decent head movement. He has a nice and powerful jab when he gets fighters moving backwards, as well as a nice step-in knee. He has a nice uppercut, left hook combo. He throws an explosive flying knee, and he can finish the fight with it. He is improving every fight with his stand up. In his last match, Islam Makhachev had a great game plan of pot shotting Davi with straight shots. He was landing his jab, clean crosses and one-twos down the middle. Davi was able to drop Islam with a short-left hook. Against Chris Gruetzmaker, he was hit with some solid shots & tired a bit. Ramos only has 1 KO/TKO, but he definitely packs enough power to finish a fight. He has a strong chin and has never been finished.
Ramos is a multi-time ADCC Submission Wrestling gold medalist. He is a black belt and has some of the best BJJ in the sport. Ramos is not a bad wrestler and does a good job of mixing up his takedowns. He does a good job of catching kicks, and countering with punches or getting the takedown. He has a decent double leg shot, but it can be telegraphed at times. He has nice body lock trip takedowns and has a lot of strength in the clinch position. He lands nice knees there and can control opponents and bank time. In top position, he is very heavy and has great pressure passes to side control or mount. He will search for the arm triangle from half guard. He is looking for submissions and keeping position over ground and pound, but when he postures up he can land heavy shots. If he gets on an opponent’s back it will be very hard for them to survive that. Ramos has a good guillotine too & is just overall very dangerous with submissions. His takedown defense is elite. Islam was not even close to being able to take Davi down. Islam did flash & drop Davi with a knee in the clinch in the third round. After being hurt Davi still was threatening from his guard with armbars but was controlled. Davi has 7 submissions & never been finished.
I like a lot of dogs on this card and Ramos is one of them. I think Tsarukyan has the higher ceiling in the UFC and he could even compete for the title one day. He is only 23 years old though and Ramos is a very tough matchup and not a guy you want to be messing around with on the ground. I think this is a very close fight and I think Ramos might be the more dangerous of the two, especially early. I think Ramos is more likely to finish and Tsaryukyan more likely to win a decision, but I think Ramos is live to win rounds 1 and 2 as well. If this was an evenly lined fight, I would just take the prospect here, but at these odds this is dog or pass and I will take Ramos by submission or split decision.
Neither of these guys is going to score unless they get a finish and we have a -210 Fight Goes To Decision line here. That really makes this close to a fade for me, but I think Ramos is in play for his submission potential and cheap salary. With 10 or less lineups, I would just X this fight out. If I am making 20 then I probably want 1-2 Ramos and I would fade Arman. With 150, you should be taking some shots on Ramos and Arman could still be a fade, but I would probably throw in 5% just in case. I don’t see how Arman scores well without a finish and he has a +475 ITD line so he is my fade of the week.
Winner – Davi Ramos via Split Decision
Amir Albazi $8,600 vs Malcolm Gordon $7,600
Amir Albazi
Age: 26
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: N/A
Gym: London Shootfighters
From: Sweden
Betting Odds: -165
Amir Albazi enters the slight favorite here as he makes his UFC debut. Albazi is a Swedish fighter fighting out of London Shootfighters gym. Albazi has competed in some big promotions like Bellator & Brave FC, and his lone loss is to former UFC veteran Jose “Shorty” Torres. Albazi is not the greatest striker. He is a big guy for the division, and pretty athletic, but very hittable. His offensive striking isn’t bad. He tries to stay very loose, and is rangy, with good movement. Albazi tries to fight long behind jabs, one-twos and overhands. He likes to start blitz combinations with a lead uppercut. He will attack the body well with jabs & straights. He is fast & when he can pot shot & move his striking is effective. He will throw a lot of front knees up the middle, some good round & front kicks to the body, as well as some spinning attacks. The issue with Albazi’s striking is he drops his hands and floats his chin. He is there to hit flush and has been dropped and hurt because of that. He was dropped more than once in the first round against Jose Torres. Albazi does recover quickly & looks durable. He is a tough guy & has no quit in him. Albazi looks like he hits hard himself for the division. He has four KO/TKO’s in his career.
Amir Albazi is a grinder & very good grappler. He has solid timing on his level changes & is a fast, explosive guy. He has nice singles & doubles. He is also good at using the double to come up into body locks and hit trips. He is proficient at hitting body lock takedowns off the cage. He is good at jumping on the back from standing. I have seen a couple fighters reverse his takedowns with a strong whizzer & put him on bottom. Albazi looks very hard to hold down and will scramble back to his feet quickly. On top, Albazi is heavy. He likes to get to side control where he will stay heavy & look to force fighters to give their backs. He will attack the arms and has a very good kimura. He likes the north/south position also. He will attempt inverted triangles, and north south chokes from there. Albazi is a good back taker & finisher from that position. He’s long and will get that body lock & just backpack opponents. He was able to stay on Torres’ back the entire second round, and that was a competitive match. Albazi is very aggressive looking for the finish once he gets the fight to the ground. He has seven submissions & has finished eleven of his twelve wins. Albazi is only 1-1 in decisions. Albazi has no issue pulling guard or being on his back. He has a very dangerous guard, and long limbs that he will throw up armbars and triangles with. He has a really nice kimura from inside his guard. He is very good at controlling wrists and being active while styming his opponent’s offense. He has very good sweeps. He is a serious grappler. Albazi has never been finished in his career. His cardio is not terrible, but not the greatest.
Malcolm Gordon
Age: 30
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 70”
Gym: Adrenaline MMA Training
From: Canada
Betting Odds: +145
Malcolm Gordon will also be making his UFC debut. Gordon has been having a lot of trouble getting fights as of late. Since defeating Yoni Sherbatov, he has had four fights all cancelled due to the events being postponed. He hasn’t fought since April of 2019. Gordon is on a nice run of late winning 7 of 8 & 4 in a row overall. Gordon is actually a very skilled fighter. He has sharp, crisp striking & is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He is tall, long, and has a good frame for the division. Gordon has a sharp jab and really nice straight punches. He has a really nice one-two and his straight-right hand is nasty. Gordon has really fast hands and super sharp counter hooks. He will throw double jab, lead right hooks that are nasty. At range, he is good with distance control. He will throw hard liver kicks & high kicks. He is going to be the much sharper striker and early on Albazi is going to have to be super careful. Gordon is a sniper and puts people’s lights out early. He is much sharper than a guy like Shorty Torres. Gordon’s issue is he struggles against forward pressure. He shells up after he’s hit and has a weak chin. I’ve seen him hurt to the body as well & he just doesn’t react the best to taking a shot. Gordon has been finished by strikes in all three of his losses. He has four KO/TKOs himself.
Malcolm Gordon is a black belt & good grappler. He isn’t a very physically strong guy, so he struggles to get fights to the mat sometimes. He does have a good body lock, and in his last fight he hit a nice trip in the clinch. Gordon is aggressive on top. He throws heavy ground & pound, big elbows and punches. He is also a really smooth, excellent passer. He will quickly transition to dominant positions & loves taking the back. He will attack armbars & RNCs from the back mount. Gordon has no issues pulling guard and attacking off bottom. He has really nice armbars, and slick transitions. He has hit some nasty triangle armbars. He has a really nasty kimura. I do see Albazi as the more physical fighter, and probably the better wrestler. Both guys are viable to catch a submission at any time if either guy is caught sleeping. Gordon has 8 career submissions & has never been submitted. Gordon is a finisher also & only has been to two decisions in his career.
I was impressed with the grappling from both of these guys. When I watched Albazi first, I was pretty sure I was going to pick him here because his wrestling and grappling looks solid. Then I watched Gordon and I thought the same thing about him. So now I really am not sure on this one. I expect it to be very grappling heavy and I think that is going to be a close fight and it will just come down to who gets the dominant positions. I would favor Gordon on the feet though, so I think that makes this a dog or pass fight for me, but I will not be betting either side because they are both making their debuts and I just don’t have a good read on how this plays out. I do expect it to be a fun grappling match though and either could get a submission.
This is a tough one to know what to do with, but I like both sides a decent amount. I think this will be a fun grappling match and either guy could have success. I think Gordon is more well-rounded, so I picked him for that reason but Albazi looks like he is purely a wrestler/grappler with good submissions and I think his style would score well. I don’t think either guy will be very highly owned either because nobody has heard of them and for that reason I would want to go overweight to both of them because I don’t have a strong lean on who wins. I just think the winner could score well and I want to get more than 25% of both. I wouldn’t touch this fight in cash games though so GPP only.
Winner – Malcolm Gordon via 3rd round Submission
Montel Jackson $9,100 vs Brett Johns $7,100
Montel Jackson
Age: 28
Height: 5’10”
Weight: 135
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: Pura Vida BJJ/MMA
From: Wisconsin
Betting Odds: -210
Montel Jackson is blazing fast and has nasty kicks, knees and straight punches. He is a southpaw and has a nasty jab and straight-left hand. He does a great job of hand fighting with his front hand and then coming with his straight-left hand. He is very accurate with his punches and has big power. He has great distance control and does a great job of sliding in and out of range and countering with long range attacks. He has great front knees to the body and the head. He also will attack with lightning fast front kicks to the body and head. He has a nice round kick to the head and body, and his kicks come fast and without telegraph. He is at his best when he is coming forward and stalking his opponents to the fence. In space, he is accurate and extremely dangerous, but can get out volumed. He has very good defense and rarely gets hit clean. He has a calmness about him and is always very aware and in the moment in the cage. He doesn’t get tired and is able to be just as effective with his striking in round 1 as round 3. He has big power with 6 KO/TKO’s in 9 wins & dropped Kelleher before submitting him in his last match. He has never been finished.
Jackson is a great wrestler, he was training to wrestle in the Olympics before transitioning to MMA. He does a great job of getting in the clinch, circling to the back and getting slam takedowns. He also has very good high crotch slams. He has unbelievable grip strength and is able to control the wrist in the clinch. He was able to control Ricky Simon’s wrist in space with one hand while punching with the other which I have never seen before in a fight. He has nasty knees & elbows in the clinch. In top position, his length gives fighters big problems. He has the ability to posture easier & rain down big G&P as well as having long limbs for chokes. He has nice front chokes & guillotines. He got a nice darce on Brian Kelleher. He has very good takedown defense and is hard to take down and hold down. He does a great job of shucking off attempts and limp legging out of single legs. He has very good hips and is extremely long making him super hard to takedown in the clinch. He can get taken down with well-timed double legs and body locks and was grinded out by one of the best fighters IMO in the 135 lb division in Ricky Simon. He was able to reverse several takedowns of Simon and end up on top as well as earning takedowns himself and defending a majority of them. Jackson is very explosive and able to change position very quickly on top. Jackson’s wrist control makes it very hard for his opponents to get damage off on the mat. Some people question Jackson’s cardio, but I think his cardio is very good. He just put out an insane amount of output vs Colares. This is a big step up for Jackson though.
Brett Johns
Age: 28
Height: 5’7”
Weight: 135
Reach: 70”
Gym: Chris Rees Academy
From: Wales
Betting Odds: +175
Brett Johns is a warrior & won’t give anybody an inch. He is a pressure fighter on the feet. Johns will throw some low kicks & front kicks to the body but is predominately a puncher. He likes to get inside & sit down on heavy hooks, overhands & uppercuts. He has a nice straight-right hand he uses to close distance and will throw straight-left, hook combinations with bad intentions. He likes to control distance by shooting the straight-right hand to the body and head. He has an excellent flying knee. Johns is a dog who likes to sit down in the pocket, and trade big shots. He doesn’t have good defense really. He just uses a high guard & his offense as defense. Johns took a beating in his last match, but still showed his toughness. He made it to the final bell after being hurt several times. Johns has slow feet & loads up on his punches. He has a square stance & really got his legs & body beat up in his last match. Johns can get stuck on the outside & pot shotted. Johns is still very tough & has never been finished. Johns only has two KO/TKO’s in his career & isn’t a big power puncher.
Brett Johns is a very strong grappler. He is a black belt in both judo & Jiu-Jitsu. Johns has a very nice double leg. He has great timing on it. Johns will shoot singles also but doesn’t finish them as often. In the clinch, Brett Johns has excellent trips & throws. His hips are very heavy when opponents shoot in on him, and he has pretty strong takedown defense. That being said, Aljamain Sterling was able to take him down multiple times & dominate in the grappling realm. When Brett Johns can get top position, he is heavy & has solid ground & pound. Johns is more about position & staying on top more, then he likes to look for the finish. Johns will look to take the back & get rear naked chokes. He has a calf slicer in the UFC, but just has 5 career submissions. Johns struggled with Sterling’s wrestling when he set it up with strikes first. He seemed a step slow & not athletic enough to compete. Johns is very hard to hold down & has a solid guard. He will throw up triangles & armbars off his back & is a good scrambler. His last match was a scramble fest where he eventually got the late submission. He has great cardio & heart.
This should be a main card fight because both guys are high-level fighters and I think Jackson is a future champion. I love the striking from Jackson and he is going to be the bigger guy in a lot of his fights. He has great wrestling as well, so I think this kid is the full package. Johns is legit on the ground though and he could give Jackson problems by either putting him on his back multiple times or possibly even getting a submission. I just think those are the only two ways he wins, and Jackson might even be the better wrestler of the two. I do expect Jackson to clearly win the striking exchanges though and he is probably my favorite parlay piece on this card.
Jackson is my preferred play here and probably a core play by default. I don’t love the favorites on this card and he is my favorite one. Plus, he has scored 95, 91, and 142 in his 3 UFC wins so I like that as well. I think this could be a tougher matchup to score well but I can’t pass up on that ceiling and I think he could knock Johns out. I will end up having him in more than half my lineups this week and he will probably be my highest owned play. I could see him spend time on his back though and I wouldn’t be shocked if Johns took his back and got a RNC, so for that reason I want some shares of him as well. If Johns is going to win it will be very grappling heavy or a finish. Either way, he is probably on the nuts with a win and this will be one of my favorite fights to target for that reason.
Winner – Montel Jackson via Unanimous Decision
Joe Duffy $9,300 vs Joel Alvarez $6,900
Joe Duffy
Age: 32
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: Tristar Gym
From: Ireland
Betting Odds: -335
Joe Duffy is returning from a short retirement still in search of his first win since 2017. He took about a year and half away from the sport following his loss to Marc Diakiese & has only fought three times in the last three years. Joe Duffy is getting a significant step down in competition here. If he can’t defeat a fighter at the level of Joel Alvarez, he should think about hanging them up for good. Duffy has become a father, and I think that could help him get some new motivation. He had a reoccurring rib injury that he’s said is now 100%. Duffy is only 32 so if he can get his mind & body right, he definitely has a couple more good years in him. Duffy throws a quick and snapping jab from odd angles. He keeps his hands low and uses a shoulder roll tactic and head movement to defend while being able to bring up his punches when fighters don’t expect them. He has nice left hooks & dangerous uppercuts. He has very nice straight-right hands. When he has opponents against the cage, he is very technical. He will throw hard shots to the body & head, he has nice overhand rights, and a nasty step-in knee to the body. He has super-fast hand speed & I feel the straight shots could give Alvarez issues. He is a taekwondo black belt and has some nice round kicks to the body & head. He will throw spinning kicks to the body & head. He will throw nice lead leg hook & round kicks to the head. When he gets flowing with his striking he is fun to watch. He will let go with longer combinations ending with kicks to the legs, body & head and is blazing fast. He can be caught because he holds his hands low and was finished by James Vick. He got his leg chewed up by Marc Diakiese. He has shown good durability & only has one KO/TKO loss. He has 2 KO/TKO’s himself.
Joe Duffy is a good Jiu-Jitsu player but can be grinded out. He isn’t an offensive wrestler really and was dominated off his back by Dustin Poirier. Marc Diakiese landed several takedowns. He can’t stop a double leg & was taken down at will with them. He does have nice sweeps & is very good in top position. He has heavy elbows from guard. He does have nice leg locks & does a good job of trapping a wrist & getting a triangle in his guard. He was able to drop Mitche Clark very quickly & jump on a rear naked choke. He was taken down early by Reza Madadi, but was able to sweep him, and then defend the takedowns in the later rounds. He was able to almost lock up a late triangle on Dustin Poirier, and almost finished him. He has a lot of submissions & finishes most of his wins. He has 10 submissions and has been submitted twice himself. He has shown good cardio over his career & heart.
Joel Alvarez
Age: 27
Height: 6’3
Weight: 155
Reach: 77”
Gym:
From: Spain
Betting Odds: +275
Joel Alvarez was a winner in his second UFC outing, bringing his record to 1-1. Alvarez really hasn’t shown me much of anything in his two UFC fights that makes me believe he’s UFC caliber. He has last all four rounds he’s completed in the UFC and was on his way to losing the second round to Danilo Belluardo as well before getting the finish. He stands tall & doesn’t throw much volume. He has good hand speed. He will close the distance with jabs & straight punch combinations. He has a powerful short right hook, that I have seen him drop opponents with. He likes to throw a jab, straight-right hand to a body kick combination. He does a good job of checking leg kicks & returning with a right hook. He has decent leg kicks. He will throw a lot of front & round kicks to the body. He has good jump knees & step-in knees to the body. His stance makes it easy for fighters to close the distance on him because he has a very flat footed Muay Thai stance. He has no problem brawling. He has quick hands & he can land counters in close. Alvarez is very hittable though & doesn’t move his head at all. He looks durable & likes to come forward, but just doesn’t offer much. Alvarez isn’t a big threat to finish with strikes on the feet. He does have two TKO victories. He has one loss KO by due to head kick.
Joel Alvarez is a submission specialist with fourteen submissions in sixteen wins. Alvarez isn’t a wrestler though and doesn’t go for offensive takedowns. In two UFC fights he has attempted zero takedowns. Alvarez likes to use forward pressure to get fighters to shoot in on him. His takedown defense is virtually nonexistent, but he wants to get taken down. The vast majority of Alvarez’s finishes come from guillotines, triangles or armbars off his back. Alvarez was taken down a couple times in his last fight. In round one Belluardo was able to sit in half guard, land short shots & controlled Alvarez the entire round. Belluardo was able to hit a sweep in round two & on top he is dangerous. He finished the fight very quickly when he got the reversal He was able to trap a wrist & rain down shots until the fight was over. Alvarez is just an opportunistic finisher. He is a guard sub guy mostly which isn’t usually an effective style at UFC level. Alvarez is young & hungry. That’s probably his one advantage in this fight.
I think the line might be a bit high on this one considering Duffy has been thinking about retirement, but stylistically I do think he is the better fighter everywhere here. I don’t think he blows him out of the water anywhere, but I do give him the striking, wrestling, and grappling edge so I have to lean with him as my pick. I would just be cautious with parlays at this price, but I am going to take Duffy to edge him out.
This isn’t my favorite fight to target on DraftKings but either guy could be on the optimal with a finish. I expect Duffy to be better and score more everywhere, but at his price tag I think he needs a round 1 or 2 finish to be on the nuts and I am not confident in that at all with his +165 ITD line. Alvarez is going to need a finish just to get his hand raised, but if he does, he could be on the optimal. I don’t want to invest much in either of these guys getting that finish, so I won’t get much exposure to this fight and I will be hoping Duffy gets an ~80-point win. I think Duffy in cash would be my favorite play for this fight, but I doubt I play any cash this week.
Winner – Joe Duffy via Unanimous Decision
Grant Dawson $9,200 vs Nad Narimani $7,000
Grant Dawson
Age: 26
Height: 5’10
Weight: 150
Reach: 72”
Gym: Glory MMA & Fitness
From: Missouri
Betting Odds: -255
Grant Dawson put another win on the board in his last fight running his UFC record to 3-0. Dawson has a great record of 15-1 and has been very vocal about wanting & being ready for bigger names. He is getting another building block here in Nad Narimani. This fight is also at 150 lbs which I think is a big advantage for Dawson. He had a bad weight cut in his last fight, so having five less pounds to lose is good. Grant Dawson’s striking isn’t the best. He does have a pretty good jab. He will throw some heavy low kicks. He is good at slipping a punch & landing a left or right hook or an overhand. He will also attack the body off slips. He likes to pressure heavy & come in with power hooks or overhands. He will throw some front & round kicks to the body & head. Dawson throws very dangerous knees up in the middle. He will throw them not only to the body but can get the knee up to the chin quickly. He flashed Julian Erosa with a knee. He does hold his hands low & stands tall which makes him very hittable. He has a great chin & can take it still at this point in his career. When he starts to get pieced up on the outside, he will eat a couple to close the distance and make it a brawl, so he can get in on a takedown. Dawson is a determined, hardnosed fighter who will continue to keep coming unless you take him out. Dawson doesn’t look like he has power in his hands. He only has three KO/TKO’s. He was knocked out with elbows to the side of the head when he was in on a takedown in his lone loss.
Grant Dawson is the definition of a grinder. He wants to do one thing when he fights, and that’s put his opponent on the floor. Dawson is good at using his strikes to create clinch opportunities. He will crash the distance with an overhand & fall into the clinch. He digs underhooks well and will try to push fighters to the fence where he is tricky. Dawson is fantastic at using the fence to push off and create openings for takedowns or to take the back. Dawson has great timing on his single & double legs and can chain wrestle against the cage. He has great wrestling cardio & can grind for all three rounds. Once Dawson gets on top, he is really good. He has great control, strong ground & pound, and when he can transition to a dominant position he is a finisher. His main specialty is taking the back. Once he has the back, he is dominant. He will get both hooks in, flatten opponents out, soften them up & choke them out. Dawson has nine rear naked chokes. Dawson did struggle a little bit with the long limbs of Julian Erosa. He was threatened with a triangle or two and couldn’t get his ground & pound off as much as usual. Against Darrick Minner, he survived a deep guillotine attempt early in the fight. Dawson has been close to being submitted, but showed very good submission defense, and no quit. He has eleven submissions of his own. Dawson breaks guys with his pressure, pace & wrestling. This is a hard matchup for Dawson, and if he can win easily here he will prove he’s the real deal.
Nad Narimani
Age: 33
Height: 5’8
Weight: 150
Reach: 70”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: England
UFC Record:
Betting Odds: ++215
Nad Narimani is looking to bounce back after a bad performance in his last one. He was knocked out badly by Mike Grundy. Narimani still has had a stellar 2-1 start to his UFC career, and Dawson would be a huge win for him. Nad Narimani has steadily improved & upped his striking game throughout the years. Narimani is a pressure fighter on the feet. He cuts the cage off well, has good in & out movement, fakes, feints and false starts. He will throw a double jab, straight-right hand. He has a nice check left hook, and hard right hook. He will throw some heavy hooks in the pocket. Narimani was landing a really nice lead uppercut, straight-right hand combination in his last fight. He throws a lot of leg and body kicks. He will throw front snap kicks to the body, and occasionally some head kicks. Narimani sometimes will get wild with flying knees and kicks. His striking has definitely improved a lot. He can still struggle to find his range at times. He has a short reach for the division & can struggle with that. He can enter range with his hands down & chin high when he gets too excited. He rocked Mike Grundy in his last fight, and when he was looking for the kill, he got sloppy, countered, dropped, and ultimately TKO’d. Narimani has an amazing chin. He got cleaned right on the temple when he faced Grundy and was able to stay in it for a while after that. He was finished while still on his feet & never actually went out. That was the first TKO loss of his career. Narimani has two TKO’s of his own.
Nad Narimani is a bruiser, and a physically strong guy for the division. He is strong in the clinch. He gets double underhooks and slows down the fight against the cage. He is short, stout and has that compact, powerful frame. Narimani likes to use his pressure & in & out movement to pull fighters into takedowns. He has great timing on his double leg takedowns. Once Nad gets fighters to the mat, he has a heavy top game & strong control. He will win rounds and fights through top control. Narimani will look to take the back and finish but doesn’t look the best to me with his BJJ. He struggles to stick the submission & was shucked off the back against Khalid Taha. Narimani does have very good takedown defense. He has a nice sprawl, denies with good underhooks, and is very physical if opponents try to take him down in the clinch. He was taken down one time in his last fight with Mike Grundy by a single leg, but Nad was able to pop right back up. Grundy is an elite wrestler, so that was good to show he could make it a standup fight in that one. Narimani has five submissions but I don’t think he will be looking for one here. Narimani is going to want to have that same game plan here, keep it on the feet, and out strike Dawson. Narimani is a tough dude, great cardio, and will to win. He is a competitor who won’t back down, and this should be a tough, gritty fight.
This is another fun one and I expect this to be pretty high paced. I think Nad is the better striker with more power, and I think he is the better wrestler of the two as well. Dawson is the higher paced fighter, especially early, who loves to look to wrestle and grapple, but the grappling and pace is really the only edges I would give him here. His style is great to beat a lot of guys, but I think Nad is going to cause some issues and I don’t see Dawson being able to get the fight to the ground as easily as he has been. I think Nad has what it takes to keep this fight on the feet more than Dawson likes and maybe take him the distance and slow him down as the fight goes. I think this is dog or pass and I am going to take Nad to get his hand raised.
This is going to be one of my favorite DK targets. Any time Dawson fights, I am interested on DK. His pace is what we love to see, and he is mainly a grappler who will look to chain wrestle and hunt for a submission. If he wins, he tends to score well and probably always will with his style. Obviously, I will be on him in a lot of lineups, but so will the field and I expect him to be one of the highest owned fighters on the card. For that reason, I want leverage on Nad here and I want to be overweight to the field. I think he could actually land takedowns of his own and I think he could hurt Dawson on the feet as well. If he could get an early KO that would likely kill off half the field who owns Dawson and Nad should be fairly low owned to contend for the nuts. I like that scenario and I think it could happen, so I will try to double the field on Nad and be around field weight if not under on Dawson.
Winner – Nad Narimani via Unanimous Decision
Roman Dolidze $8,900 vs Khadis Ibragimov $7,300
Roman Dolidze
Age: 32
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: N/A
Gym: RD Sport
From: Georgia
Betting Odds: -170
Roman Dolidze will be making his UFC debut here. He has been signed by the promotion for a while now but hasn’t been able to get into the cage. He has had three fights booked & cancelled in the UFC. Dolidze is undefeated & a good prospect. We have to see how he is now after his USADA suspension. He was clearly on the juice. He is super emotional in the cage, yelling, screaming and extremely confident. From what I’ve seen, he has really improved fight to fight & I like this guy. For a LHW he has decent boxing; Good slips, head movement, and counters. He likes to come forward, pop opponents with the jab or left hook. He likes to slip & throw the counter lead hook. He has decent head movement, and in the pocket will slip shots & land uppercuts and hooks that have fight ending power. He is very willing to just engage in brawls as well and go blow for blow. His propensity to do that will probably get him KO’d eventually. He is a bit stiff in exchanges & was wobbled a couple times in his last fight. He will get wide with overhands & hooks inside, but it’s makes him dangerous as well. In his last fight, it was a war, and he showed really good cardio. He was pressing the whole fight & walking his opponent down. In round three he landed a nasty spinning backfist and finished it off on the ground. Dolidze has finished his last three fights by knockout.
Roman Dolidze is a serious grappler. He is a former ADCC worlds participant, and an aggressive submission fighter. He is a solid wrestler. He has pretty good level changes for a big guy, and a good single. He will push fighters to the fence and chain wrestle. When he can get on top, he’s dangerous. He will go for leg locks, has nice back takes & is a gorilla on top. He will get to dominant positions & rain down ground & pound. He has fallen in love with his striking lately after using his grappling to win his early fights. His first three matches he won via submission with two heel hooks & a rear naked choke. He is still green at 6-0 but is a good prospect.
Khadis Ibragimov
Age: 25
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 78.5”
Gym: Sambo-Piter
From: Russia
Betting Odds: +150
Khadis Ibragimov needs a different result here after going 0-2 so far to start his UFC career. If he loses he will likely be cut. At 25 years old he still has time to turn it around but hasn’t been good of late. His striking is just super wild. He has power, but really just throws jabs & looping right hands to close the distance. He will throw one-twos. He also has a good chin & is willing to bang. He is still a good athlete though & the risk of the takedown makes opponents hesitant to let go. He will eventually get inside & get it where he wants it. His striking is not good though. It’s just wild, crazy hooks. He keeps a pace in round one he can’t sustain for the whole fight. He is always just looking to counter with a big, slapping shot, or swarm with combinations. He throws a lot of wide arm punches & doesn’t look to hit extremely hard. When he does get tired, he becomes a punching bag. He was battered in his last two fights after gassing. He has never been finished by strikes. He has two KO/TKO’s on the ground.
Khadis Ibragimov is a solid grappler. In his last fight, he spent a lot of time cage grinding against the fence. He didn’t have a lot of offense from there and let Ed Herman be more active even with his back against the cage. Ibragimov has nice single leg takedowns. He will use the single to push opponents to the cage & transition to doubles, along with circling to the back. He has very nice throws. When he circles to the back, along with looking for throws, he will look to get his arms around the neck. He will lock in rear naked chokes with no hooks & finish them like bulldog chokes. In top position, he is good. He likes to get side control & finished his last opponent in the crucifix position. He likes to move to the mount, take the back & get rear naked chokes. He has 2 rear naked chokes & one bulldog choke. In his fight with Ed Herman, he couldn’t control Herman the couple times he took him down. He has finished his last 5 wins. Ibragimov has shown terrible cardio so far in his career. He hasn’t been able to keep the pace he sets in round one. He did a better job with his game plan in his last fight, slowing it down and grappling more. He still hasn’t been very successful grappling in his two UFC fights.
I have been very unimpressed with Ibragimov and this seems like a matchup to get Dolidze a win and Ibragimov his pink slip. Dolidze doesn’t even look that good but he does have big power and Ibragimov is sort of a punching bag. I think Khadis could maybe win this fight on volume if it goes to the judges, but I think Dolidze probably knocks him out at some point. I don’t see either guy sticking around in the UFC for long though.
This could be a big one for DraftKings. Dolidze has a +120 ITD line and he could KO this guy early and have a good shot for the optimal. I have to take a shot on him for that reason. He just isn’t very good and hard to trust with the lack of volume he throws. He does hit hard though and Khadis is aggressive, so I think it could just take one punch and if that is round 2 then he scores great. Khadis is in play as well because he does throw in volume and if he wins at his price I would be surprised to see him not get more than 10x and I think he could contend for the optimal with any win.
Winner – Roman Dolidze via 1st round (T)KO
Alexandre Pantoja $8,800 vs Askar Askarov $7,400
Alexandre Pantoja
Age: 30
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Nova Uniao
From: Brazil
Betting Odds: -200
Alexandre Pantoja is an aggressive striker, along with being a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. Pantoja has a nice jab and a good one-two. He has nasty leg kicks & will throw a one-two, leg kick combination. He has a nice jab, left hook combo. He has a nice wide right hook & overhand right. He will slide back & counter with those attacks. He has nice hooks to the body and he will throw a right hook to the body, left hook to the head combination. He will throw nice front kicks to the body & the occasional round or front kick to the head. He has shown the tendency to fight emotionally & get a bit wild. When he gets hit, he will aggressively come forward and try to get it back. He has no problem sitting in the pocket & exchanging and has a great chin with solid power. His striking has hit another level since joining ATT. His hand speed & head movement is much better. He will slip & rip in the pocket very effectively. His feints are better along with his shot selection. He landed a switch stance, straight-right hand that knocked out Wilson Reis. His last fight was wild. It was a brawl the whole time it lasted with both guys hurting each other before Pantoja flatlined Schnell. Pantoja has 8 KO/TKO’s and has never been finished.
Pantoja is a great grappler with superb BJJ. He is very strong in the clinch, and when he backs fighters against the cage, he will grab the Muay Thai plum and land hard knees to the head and body. He will get a single collar position against the cage and throw nasty elbows and knees to the body. He will go for body lock takedowns in the clinch and shoots some reactive shots if he has an advantage on the mat. On top, he is very good, he has great guard passing and moves into dominant positions quickly. He has nasty ground & pound and is extremely accurate. He loves to take the back where he has a great body triangle and control. He has a great rear naked choke with 6. He has never been submitted. I expect him to try to keep this fight standing & avoid being on his back. His takedown defense is solid. He has a strong sprawl and is good at creating scrambles right away. In his fight against Dustin Ortiz, he lost more due to Ortiz being able to turn in after Pantoja took the back & control the later parts of two rounds but didn’t have great success taking him down. He is extremely hard to hold down. Pantoja has 9 career submissions.
Askar Askarov
Age: 27
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: Berkut FC
From: Russia
Betting Odds: +170
Askarov is a fluid striker. He likes to play the outside game early & use a lot of kicks. He has excellent feints & is very composed. He throws nasty leg kicks both inside & outside. He has a stiff, stabbing jab. Askarov will throw nice left hooks. He has a nasty one-two and a nice overhand right. He has good head movement and will slip & return with straights & hooks. In the pocket, he is very good at slipping shots, ducking & rolling while returning with clean counters. He has power in his hands when he can walk fighters into his counters. Once he gets his reads & opponents timing, he will start to walk them down. He is very methodical and doesn’t throw a ton, but when he does he’s accurate & powerful. He is very good at landing a punch while grabbing a leg at the same time & getting the takedown. He does hold his hands a bit low & I have seen fighters be very aggressive with him early & have some success with blitzes. Brandon Moreno had success with his speed & pressure. He also landed a nice head kick which did stun Askarov. Askarov showed amazing composure when hurt, and never was startled. He recovered & worked his way back into the fight. Overall, he has good defense & movement though. He has good head & body movement and is superb at catching kicks. Askar is undefeated at 10-0-1 & a very confident fighter. He has 3 KO/TKO’s.
Askar Askarov is a dynamic submission grappler. He will pull off submissions in fights most fighters don’t even know how to attempt such as twisters. He is a very strong wrestler to boot. Askarov is very physically strong for the division, and muscles fighters around in the clinch. He is excellent at getting the tight waist, circling to the back & landing suplexes. He will punch his way into this position excellently & blends striking to grappling very well. He is also excellent at catching kicks & getting takedowns, along with foot sweeps. On top, he is very heavy & loves to take the back. He has strong control from there & sticks the submissions very well. He has very good defensive wrestling, and even if he does get taken down, he’s very good off his back. He has a dangerous guard throwing up submissions & looking for sweeps. He is also very hard to hold down. He has excellent front chokes he will attack with when opponents shoot in from too far out. He will put opponents to sleep with darces, anacondas, & guillotines. Whenever I have seen him taken down, he will immediately look for the double wrist lock from inside his guard. He has great grip strength, and can not only manipulate posture, but sweep or finish with it. Askar has 7 submissions in his career. He has finished all 10 of his pro wins. Askarov has incredible cardio & his pace never seems to wane. He looks just as fresh in round one as he does in round three & is never rattled in fights. His cardio & composure will take him a long way in his career.
I think the strength and wrestling departments would be Askarov’s only real edges here. I think Pantoja’s grappling is better and more dangerous though, so I don’t think Askarov would have a lot of success with the wrestling, and on the feet, I have to favor Pantoja. I think Pantoja is going to be the faster and more active striker and I think he could even get takedowns of his own and he is live for a submission if the fight hits the mat.
Pantoja is my preferred play here and he scored 100 or more in his last 3 wins. I like him in all formats this week and he is one of the favorites who I feel good about them winning. I think this could be a harder spot to score well but I still plan on being overweight to Pantoja, and if I was playing cash games, I would think he makes that lineup. Askarov is in play and will make my player pool, I just think this is a tough matchup and I like other dogs more on this card so that will probably limit my exposure to him. If you want to be overweight to him I think that is a fine move and he can win this fight, I just think other dogs are more live personally and I don’t see him having a great score that puts him on the nuts.
Winner – Alexandre Pantoja via Unanimous Decision
Ariane Lipski $8,300 vs Luana Carolina $8,000
Ariane Lipski
Age: 26
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Brazil
Betting Odds: -120
Ariane Lipski finally earned that elusive UFC win her last time out. She dropped her first two UFC fights & really needed a win, and she got it. It wasn’t the best performance, but it got Lipski back on track in the UFC, and maybe will help her confidence. Lipski is going to be the veteran in this spot. She has fought way more times & fought way better competition. Ariane Lipski is there to throw down & if fighters stand in front of her, she definitely can light them up. She has very nice straight punch combinations, hard body kicks, and throws hard. She has fast hands. Inside, she throws some tight hooks in combination. She has good power and can hurt opponents. She is going to have the boxing advantage. Lipski has very bad footwork though, and fighters who can move give her issues. She throws at air a lot and is a little bit stiff. She doesn’t move her head and is very hittable. Lipski does have five KO/TKO’s.
Ariane Lipski has really struggled with wresting throughout her UFC career. She struggles with takedowns & submission defense. She can’t get-up off her back & let’s fighters get to dominant positions and take over the fight. Lipski did show some improvements vs De Padua, but still was taken down & controlled. In this fight, I definitely think Carolina is the better grappler, but I don’t think she will go for takedowns. Lipski has just two submissions. Her cardio is not bad & maybe she will be more confident now that she has a UFC win.
Luana Carolina
Age: 27
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 69”
Gym: Thai Unit
From: Brazil
Betting Odds: +100
Luana Carolina entered the UFC with a bang. She won a wild back & forth slug fest with Priscila Cachoeira. She hasn’t been able to capitalize on the momentum much, as she hasn’t fought since. That fight was in last May, so she is probably dying to get back in the octagon. Carolina is currently riding a six-fight win streak as well, and in good form. I know they call Ariane Lipski the Violence Queen, but Luana Carolina is a violent chick. She has some pretty nice finishes, and when she hurts someone she goes for the kill. She impressed me in her last fight the way she embraced the war against Priscila Cachoeira. She is long and rangy. She likes to walk fighters down, and tries to stay long. She is good at switching stances. She has pretty good lateral footwork. Carolina has a snappy jab, good straight punches and one-twos down the middle. She will throw straight-right, left hook combinations. She throws some nice short hook counters and lead elbows. Carolina does pull back with her chin high & has some tall women’s defense. In the pocket, she will trade punches at times with just wide hooks & her chin high. She is very durable and took some hammers from a hard hitter in Priscila Cachoeira. Her kicks & knees are very dangerous. She has nice front kicks up the middle, and she likes to throw straights followed by round kicks to the body & head. She landed a nasty head kick in her last fight that dropped Cachoeira hard. She will throw these front knees up the middle out of nowhere similar to Dan Hooker. She will try to pull fighters into spinning backfists. Carolina has dangerous blitz combinations. She is a good offensive striker. Her defense leaves a lot to be desired, but her chin is very good and she’s willing to take it. Carolina isn’t a big power hitter, but I see her getting some KO/TKO’s in her career by melting fighters with volume. She has two so far in six wins.
Luana Carolina is not a bad grappler. She is nasty in the clinch. Carolina uses her reach to blast nasty knees to the body & head, and she also throws big elbows over the top. Whenever Priscila Cachoeira got inside on Dread, Dread would get the Thai plum, and land heavy knees. She is relentless with clinch strikes & tries to take opponents out. Carolina doesn’t go for takedowns offensively. Her takedown defense isn’t bad. She is good at getting her back to the cage & a wide base. She will attack the neck and has a good guillotine. When Carolina does get taken down, she is aggressive with her guard. Her long limbs make it hard to pass, and she will throw up submissions. She hit a nice omaplata sweep & takedown reversal on her Dana White contender series fight. Her Jiu-Jitsu is good. In her last match, she dropped Cachoeira, and almost hit an armbar. When Carolina does sweep to top position or drop her opponent, she throws heavy ground & pound. She almost hit a guillotine later in the fight and used it to take the mount. Carolina has insane cardio and keeps a stupid pace. She did get tired in her last fight, but not many girls are able to eat 200 significant strikes and keep walking forward like zombie girl Cachoeira. I think she is a very good prospect for this division.
I expect this to be a striking match and it will probably be a close one. I really don’t trust either one here or have a strong lean, so I think I have to say it is dog or pass either way. I think Lipski is the more well-rounded fighter, but I don’t see her looking for a lot of takedowns, and on the feet, I could see Carolina landing more volume and she could win a striking battle that way. I doubt I bet either side, but I will take the dog since I wouldn’t want to lay juice on either of these ladies.
This is a fight I really want to fade but it makes me a bit nervous being in the mid-range of the salaries. Lipski has never scored well in the UFC and if she won all 3 of her fights then she would still only average 65.3 DK points, but she lost 2 of them where she was supposed to win on the betting odds. I just can’t trust her, and she is the easier fade of the two for me where I think I probably would full fade her with 20 or less lineups. Carolina did have an easy matchup in her debut, but she did score 109 DK points and that is what is scary to fade here, as the underdog. I do have a bit of interest in her, but I also don’t see her having that ceiling in this fight. I would expect her to get near 10x or more though and that is what puts her in play. I think she has a decent floor as well and is cash playable. If this is a back and forth, split decision type fight then I highly doubt either would be on the optimal, so I think if you want to full fade the fight with that expectation, then that is fine.
Winner – Luana Carolina via Split Decision
Marc Diakiese $8,500 vs Rafael Fiziev $7,700
Marc Diakiese
Age: 27
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: AVT MMA Leeds
From: England
Betting Odds: -160
Marc Diakiese has looked rejuvenated since returning to his old gym. He has won two in a row in dominant fashion. Diakiese is still a young guy with a lot of talent. He hasn’t been able to get a fight in nearly a year due to three cancellations. He has always been ready to go but had two opponents pull out. Diakiese was much less flashy & more technically sound in his last two fights. Diakiese was using feints to create openings for leg kicks. He was attacking with an impressive jab to the body and head. Diakiese had issues with the low calf kicks vs Drakkar Klose, but really battered the lead leg of Lando Vannata & Joe Duffy. Diakiese throws a really nice straight-right, left hook combination. His overhand right is powerful. Diakiese dropped Joe Duffy with a nasty lead elbow. He has extremely fast round & front kicks to the body and head. Diakiese has extremely fast & dangerous spins. He will use a double jab or one-two into a spinning kick to the body or head. He loves to throw the jumping spinning kick. Diakiese was using much more footwork & pull countering. Diakiese is extremely fast & explosive. Opponents have to be worried about him ending the fight with one shot at any time. When Marc Diakiese can get his timing, he is very hard to get inside on. He will just tee fighters up with counters as they enter range & angle off. Fighters who have had success vs Diakiese have been able to establish forward pressure right away & stay in boxing range. Nasrat Haqparast was able to keep his jab in Diakiese’s face, back him towards the fence & tee off with combinations. Diakiese has had issues with leg kicks in the past as well. Diakiese gets cut easily & shows a lot of damage when he gets hit. I would say Diakiese is a little breakable. When fighters hurt him, he will kind of resign to being defensive. Diakiese is very tough & has a good chin. He took an absolute beating vs Nasrat Haqparast but made it to the final bell. He has never been finished by strikes in his career. Diakiese has 6 career KO/TKO’s.
Marc Diakiese is a well-rounded fighter & is a good offensive wrestler. He is very physically strong with explosive power. In the clinch, he has strong control against the cage & good short punches & elbows. He can pick people up & put them down very quickly. He will get big slams in the clinch if he can get the tight waist as well as suplexes. He even got what was almost a choke slam against Drakkar Klose. Diakiese also catches kicks & knees very well & gets takedowns through that. In his fight with Dan Hooker, he was caught with a guillotine on a double against the cage. He was able to out wrestle Drakkar Klose who is a former college wrestler. On the ground, he will try to stand up in opponent’s guards and land long punches. He will move to half guard & control from there. He isn’t super dangerous on top, but he has good control. In his fight with Frankie Perez, he dug deep & got the third-round takedown & control time needed to win the fight. Diakiese was able to takedown Joe Duffy but did nothing & got stood up by the referee. He got a couple more body lock takedowns, but really never got anything going offensively in top position until the very end of round 3. Diakiese has had issues with cardio in the past but was fresh late in round 3. He was able to get several body lock takedowns & control against the cage for the last couple minutes of round 3. Diakiese is not a submission guy & much more about control than damage on the mat. He has just one career submission. Diakiese has been submitted one time.
Rafael Fiziev
Age: 27
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: Kyrgyzstan
Betting Odds: +140
Rafael Fiziev picked up his first UFC win dominating Alex White. The UFC obviously sees something in Fiziev giving him a big opportunity here against Diakiese. Fiziev hasn’t fought in a while & is coming off a knee surgery. He is still a young guy, so he should be ready to go. Fiziev is very light on his feet and has great distance control. He has nice leg kicks, and heavy body & head kicks. He has a very nice straight-right hand & a devastating left hook. Fiziev has a very nice counter left & right hook moving backwards. He will slip & return with a left hook, straight or overhand right. Fiziev has nasty lead elbows. His ability to slip & rip is elite & he is famous for avoiding head kicks, like he is in the matrix. In his last loss he was caught cold with a spinning back kick that dropped him & he was finished with G&P. Fiziev will throw nice round & question mark kicks to the head himself. He will throw nice spinning backfists. He has nice flying knees. He has a head kick, body kick, and flying knee KO. He will mix head kicks & flying knees into combinations very well. He doesn’t tend to throw in combination much, unless he has an opponent hurt or on the back foot. He will slowly break opponents down to the legs & body throughout the fight. If he can keep fights standing, he is going to be trouble for a ton of UFC guys. Fiziev does get a little bit wide with his hooks at times & can just stand in front of opponents and be caught sleeping. His defense in boxing range isn’t the greatest. He has 5 KO/TKO’s wins & one TKO loss in his MMA career.
Rafael Fiziev is strong in the clinch. He digs nice underhooks & will throw hard knees & elbows to the body and head. He will grab the plum clinch & throw knees as well. Fiziev will throw nice shots off the break. He did hit a nice trip takedown in his last fight. In his fight in Titan, he did drop an opponent with a leg kick, and controlled him in top position. Fiziev didn’t pass guard, but he was able to posture up & land some big elbows. He does have one career rear naked choke. I do think his fast twitch muscles, footwork, and counters will make it hard for fighters to get in on his legs. His takedown defense looked very good in his last fight. He was doing a good job of making White pay for the takedown attempts with knees. He is very experienced in fighting in combat sports, but in MMA is only 7-1. This is a big step up in competition for Fiziev.
I am pretty high on both these guys and I think this is going to be a good fight. On the feet, this is probably going to be very close and I could see Fiziev being the faster and more dangerous guy who wins the striking from landing more and more of a variety of strikes as well. Diakiese is going to need to get this fight to the ground to have his real advantage and I think that could be enough to get him the win if the striking is close. However, -160 is a tough price to lay and Diakiese has been a guy I like to bet. I think this might actually be dog or pass here because I think Fiziev is legit on the feet and I think he could even get a finish.
This is a fight I will take some shots on both sides of, but I won’t make either a priority and I think we can get away from this one. Neither of these guys fight at a high pace and I don’t see them breaking the slate unless they get a knockout. I’d say Diakiese is the preferred play just because he has more ways to win and he could rack up some takedowns in this matchup. He is just too low volume to trust with many lineups and Fiziev is very solid on the feet and could win the striking battle. I like Fiziev a bit for that reason, but I don’t see him scoring well without a knockdown or knockout so even as a live dog I don’t see me being too exposed to him. I would think both guys make 10-20% of my lineups this week and I wouldn’t talk you off either guy in cash if you have a strong lean.
Winner – Rafael Fiziev via Split Decision
Kelvin Gastelum $8,200 vs Jack Hermansson $8,000
Kelvin Gastelum
Age: 28
Height: 5’9
Weight: 185
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Arizona
Betting Odds: -115
Kelvin Gastelum has very crisp hands, and a very good boxing game. He has a nasty jab & hard left hand down the middle. He throws a lot of one-twos. He will mix in powerful left hooks & left uppercuts in close range. He has good inside, outside leg kicks & a solid head kick. I feel he should throw more leg kicks in future fights. Gastelum will attack the body with kicks & front knees. He will throw the occasional body hooks as well. Gastelum uses a ton of fakes, feints and false starts to keep his opponents guessing. That paired with his foot & hand speed being a smaller fighter for the division, give him a unique skill set. He slips & rips excellently with elite head movement. He is able to get inside with his movement, slip & rip with hooks & clean fighters’ clocks. He also possesses an iron chin & elite cardio. That gives him the ability to eat shots, continue to walk forward, and try to find his own like his last match vs Izzy. Kelvin has one punch power in his left hand & in my opinion is the more powerful puncher. Gastelum has 7 KO/TKO’s in his career 8 if you count the KO of Vitor which was changed to a no contest due to marijuana. He has never been finished by strikes.
Kelvin Gastelum is going to want to use his wrestling in reverse in this match. Gastelum is very hard to take down, much less hold down. He is excellent at giving his back & scrambling back to his feet. He was able to defend most of the takedowns & survive some ground positions with Jacare, and it doesn’t get much more dangerous than that. Hermansson is very tall & long though, and if he can get the back & get that body triangle in, I think it’s a much different matchup. You saw Kelvin really struggle with the length of Chris when he was on top of him. He does have a good rear naked choke, & 6 career submissions. He has been submitted one time by Chris Weidman.
Jack Hermansson
Age: 32
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 77.5”
Gym: Frontline Academy
From: Sweden
Betting Odds: -105
Hermansson arguably has the best movement in the entire MW division. Hermansson is extremely light on his feet, very fast in & out, has great forward pressure & lateral movement. Hermansson tends to start a lot of fights by putting pressure on opponents, showing them his movement & speed, hitting & not getting hit. Hermansson has a nasty jab. He will throw really nice one-twos right down the pipe. He has a nasty left hook and a really nice, right uppercut. Hermansson will throw most of his shots straight & sharp. When Hermansson gets his jab going, he will up the volume & keep it right in opponents’ faces. He has very fluid hand combinations. His pressure along with his volume melts a lot of opponents. Hermansson was able to work behind the jab all day on Souza and stunned him multiple times with uppercuts & straight punch combinations. He was hitting & moving, giving new angles & not allowing Souza to get a beat on him. Hermansson has very fluid kicks. He will throw a lot of oblique & leg kicks. He has nasty front & round kicks to the body. He will throw some round kicks to the head also, but much less. Hermansson has a nasty flying knee with great timing on. Hermansson can be a little vulnerable on the feet when he gets stationary. He tends to just use a high guard to defend, and opponents are able to dig to the body, and sometimes land uppercuts or overhands around his guard. When Hermansson was knocked out vs Thiago Santos, he was hurt, and backed up in a straight line which led to him being unloaded on & finished. Now that Hermansson has the experience of a five-round fight I expect him to look even better. Hermansson doesn’t throw many strikes with fight ending intentions. He prefers to touch & move and keep the volume high. He does have pop in his punches but finishes most fights on the ground. Hermansson has 11 KO/TKO finishes. He has been finished by strikes just one time.
Jack Hermansson is a strong wrestler with elite skills on the mat. Hermansson proved that in his match vs Jacare Souza. Hermansson was almost able to submit Souza with his signature guillotine choke. When Hermansson gets the guillotine against most fighters the fight is over. Previously to the Souza fight, he had finished two fights via guillotine in the first round. Hermansson is tall with a long reach for the division & uses that very well in the clinch. He will dig double underhooks & slam knees into opponent’s mid-sections. He has nice trip takedowns and will circle to the back from standing position & land suplexes. Most of his takedowns come in space off his movement. His ability to move in & out & land opens opportunities for singles & doubles. Hermansson was able to land several takedowns against Jacare Souza and control him from top position which is easier said than done. Later in the fight we did see Hermansson get denied on a few takedowns & shot some from too far out. When Hermansson does take top position, he is very good. He has great control & devastating ground & pound. Against most fighters, he is able to advance position, usually taking the back & finishing the fight with shots. Against Jacare Souza, Hermansson showed the ability to stay safe & active inside Souza’s guard & hold him down for large portions of rounds. If Hermansson is able & willing to do that vs Souza, I don’t see many fighters he wouldn’t be able to do it against. Hermansson has very strong takedown defense & it’s hard to get in on his hips. In one of the few fights he was taken down, he did get submitted by Cezar Ferreira. In this fight, I don’t expect him to deal with any offensive grappling at all from Gastelum. Hermansson has 5 submissions and has been submitted twice. Hermansson’s cardio & volume is elite.
This is a close one. I think Kelvin is the better boxer and has more power on the feet. Hermansson is the more active fighter on the feet and probably the better wrestler/grappler, and he is going to have a 6-inch reach advantage as well. I think this will be a close fight, but I think I would take Hermansson to win this fight slightly more than he loses it and I think he should be the slight favorite. Kelvin is a bigger name though, so I think we can wait and get + money on this one if we are looking to bet it so that is probably what I would try to do if betting on Jack here. He should be able to keep the striking close if not even win it, and I think he can fall back on the wrestling to steal close rounds and he could possibly make rounds very clear if he comes in with a grappling-based game plan.
This is a tricky one but Hermansson is going to be my preferred play. I think Hermansson can get 10x here in any win and I would expect him to be lower owned of the two just because of how popular Gastelum is. Gastelum at $8.2k probably needs a finish to be on the optimal and I don’t even know that he would 10x his salary in a decision without a knockdown. He is a guy who could burn me with an early KO, but I expect him to be popular enough where I am going to need to be underweight to a guy like him who doesn’t have the striking volume that helps us on DK and he doesn’t go for takedowns either. Hermansson should be the bigger guy and looking to grapple so he is the guy I prefer in all formats but more so GPPs. I think he has 100+ upside here and I like his salary, so I want to be overweight to him this week and I think this is a decent matchup for him if he can avoid the KO.
Winner – Jack Hermansson via Unanimous Decision
Deiveson Figueiredo $9,000 vs Joseph Benavidez $7,200
Deiveson Figueiredo
Age: 32
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Marajo Brothers
From: Brazil
Betting Odds: -220
Deiveson Figueiredo is probably the biggest FW on the roster with the most one punch knockout power. He proved that again in his last match with Joe B. On the feet, Figueiredo is basic, but has one punch knockout power, and is a big presence. He cuts the cage off well, will switch stances, and almost always controls the center of the cage. He likes to stand in front of opponents, feint & touch opponents to pull counter. He uses a wide stance, hands down stance & is very athletic & explosive. Figueiredo has a very nice jab. He will skip into range with one-twos and has heavy low kicks. He has a powerful straight & overhand right. Figueiredo likes to kind of shuffle into range & then explode into a left or right hook or overhand. He will attack the body with straights & hooks that have big power. He has very nice uppercuts. The issue in Figueiredo’s striking is he loads up a lot, and if opponents are smart, use movement & don’t engage in fire fights with him, he isn’t the fastest. Due to the fact he doesn’t throw in combination, he can be low volume and not land much if fighters can avoid the big shots. He will sit in the pocket & trade wild hooks as shown vs Pantoja. He has started to implement a lot more standing elbows on the feet that are very dangerous & cut opponents open. Figueiredo will also get frustrated & start lunging in & using big movements when he can get inside. This makes it easier to time takedowns, along with catch him with counter shots. In his last match, he was definitely more composed. Figueiredo definitely packs a punch with 9 KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished by strikes. In the match with Joseph it looked like his power affected Benavidez much more than Benavidez’s affected him.
Deiveson Figueiredo has struggled with grapplers over his career. He got a victory by the skin of his teeth vs Jarred Brooks, where he was taken down many times. In his loss to Jussier Formiga, Formiga was able to take him down to cement rounds. Figueiredo just doesn’t have the greatest takedown defense or get-up game. He was dumped with double legs vs Brooks and taken down with singles & body locks vs Formiga. Off his back, Figueiredo doesn’t do much. He will try to play the guard game, control posture, and does land elbows & punches off his back. He did cut Formiga with an elbow on bottom. He will eventually look to get the feet on the hips & push fighters off, but he can be much too complacent off his back. In his fights with both Formiga & Brooks, they had over a full round of top control. Deiveson does have a dangerous guillotine, but he doesn’t use it to sweep, and if opponents escape he is on his back. He did catch one against teammate of Joseph Benavidez, Tim Elliott. I will say though Deiveson was able to deny a couple takedowns from Joe B. He was able to also attack with an armbar in round one that was very close. Offensively, Figueiredo isn’t a bad wrestler. He is very big for the division and gets in on double underhooks nicely using the position to land trip takedowns. He landed a nice blast double in his fight vs Pantoja. He wasn’t able to control in top position very long before Pantoja scrambled back to his feet. I don’t see him being able to control Joe B in top position. In this fight, I think Figueiredo has to stay composed. He has to just try to cut Joe off, not get frustrated by the movement & catch him as he’s coming in. He needs to use his straight-right hand & uppercut, and maybe even look for flying knees. If he gets taken down, work back to his feet as quickly as possible. Figueiredo has 5 submissions & has never been submitted.
Joseph Benavidez
Age: 35
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 65”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: California
Betting Odds: +180
Joseph Benavidez will be looking at another crack at UFC gold. He is arguably the best fighter in UFC history to never be champion, so we will see if he can finally achieve that goal. This will be the second consecutive training camp for his team against Figueiredo also, so they should have a good understanding of what his tendencies are. Benavidez is a super explosive athlete & he really relies on that on the feet. He keeps his hands low & uses a lot of movement, fakes & feints before finding his opening to close the distance with explosive combinations. Benavidez has a solid jab and good straight-left hand. He has strong inside leg kicks & good round house kicks to the body. He does a good job of setting up his kicks with feints & by throwing them at the end of combinations. He has nice front kicks to the body & even will attack with head kicks. His most devastating strikes are still his hooks & overhands. He landed a hard-overhand right that stumbled Perez in his last match & his usual speed darting in & out was back. Benavidez is extremely fast & closes the distance with hooks & overhands to the body & head very effectively. He has a nice straight-left to the body, overhand right combination. He is very explosive & can close a lot of distance with his blitz attacks. He has a nice counter overhand right where he slides out of the way of a shot and returns. Benavidez struggles with fighters who can control distance avoid his shots & counter with cleaner, tighter punches. This is a good matchup for him to put the pressure & try to take out a fighter with strikes. Benavidez has 7 KO/TKO’s in his career & has only been finished by strikes one time in his career.
Benavidez is a phenomenal wrestler both offensively & defensively. He is excellent in the clinch. He will get a hold of the plum clinch & blast knees to the head & body. He also has nice, short uppercuts & body shots in the single collar clinch. He does a great job of landing shots on the break & he can stun fighters. He will attack with knees to the head, overhands & uppercuts when disengaging the clinch. He has great takedowns in the clinch & is one of the most physically strong FWs of all time. He has nasty slam takedowns from the clinch & can really manhandle opponents. His style of blitzing in with 3 or 4 hooks & overhands makes it much easier for him to land takedowns. Fighters are worried about getting hit & he will just duck under and land a nice double leg. Benavidez is super active on top and will attack with nasty ground & pound elbows. He was able to get into a wrestling ride position against Alex Perez in his last match & rained down brutal shots & really finished the fight twice via ground & pound. Benavidez will move to the mount where he will look to finish with ground & pound or snatch up a guillotine. His guillotine is top notch & he has a brutal squeeze. He has great takedown defense & has only been taken down by perfectly timed shots by DJ & Cruz. He is extremely hard to hold down & will usually just explode back up to his feet. He’s never been submitted in his career, and only been finished 1 time. He has 9 career submissions, but hasn’t earned one since 2014.
This is a rematch from about 5 months ago where Figueiredo finished Benavidez and would have won the title if he made weight for that fight. Now they are going to run it again for the belt. Deiveson did look good in the first fight and he almost submitted him in round 1, but he was out struck in both rounds and it was really his power that was looking like the difference for him. I don’t know that he can keep that power for 5 rounds here and he had a big headbutt in the first fight that could have played into the knockout right after it. I think -200 here is just too high even though I think Figueiredo probably wins this fight more than he loses it. I think this is a close fight and I will take Joe B to win 3 of the 5 rounds to get his hand raised.
I think we can get away from this fight on DraftKings for ownership purposes, but we would need a Fig win for that to work. In their first fight he scored 98 DK points and was on the optimal, but he was only priced at $7.4k for that fight. At $9k I don’t know that 98 points will cut it and that is close to his ceiling with the lack of volume this guy throws. Joe B is my preferred play here because it will be a lot easier for him to pay off his salary and I think the longer this fight goes the more it will favor Joe B and any win from him gives him a real good shot of being on the optimal. I will probably be around 30% Fig and 40% Joe B here, but I will be sure to have a good number of lineups fading this fight hoping Fig wins and doesn’t hit 10x.
Winner – Joseph Benavidez via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: bigmarleymma.com
- Bets are on a 1-5u scale with 1u = $100.
- I am 130-100 for +254.60u (+$25,460) since May 19, 2018 for all premium bets.
