BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC Fight Island 2 Location – Fight Island, Abu Dhabi
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card on Fight Island that will have no fans in attendance due to the pandemic. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $100k goes to 1st place with $500k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Kenneth Bergh $8,700 vs Jorge Gonzalez $7,500
Kenneth Bergh
Age: 31
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 74.5”
Gym: Frontline MMA
From: Norway
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 227
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -165
Kenneth Bergh is another newcomer entering the UFC with an 8-0 pro record. That record is a little bit fugazi. Bergh has two losses on his record both under the UFC banner. He lost on the contender series & on the ultimate fighter by submission. His fight on contender series was changed to a NC after his opponent failed for steroids, and the Spicely fight was an exhibition bout. Kenneth Bergh on the feet isn’t bad. He’s rangy & has good kicks. He likes to stay loose with the hands, throw nice jabs and one-twos. He will throw lead left hooks. He keeps a high guard and tries to counter with them. For a big guy, he has pretty good movement, and nice low kicks. He will throw round kicks to the body and head. Bergh’s defense on the feet is not very good though. He is very hittable. He also doesn’t look like he throws with a lot of power. He is throwing shots to close the distance only. Bergh isn’t looking to finish fights on the feet. He does have two TKO’s early in his career. Bergh has never been finished by strikes.
Kenneth Bergh is a submission specialist. He is a neck hunter & has a wicked guillotine. If opponents shoot in on Kenneth Bergh, they better protect their neck. Bergh has a lot of faith in his guillotine. He is willing to pull guard with it, which I usually don’t like, but he’s been successful with it. Bergh gets most of his submissions when fighters shoot in on him. He doesn’t really have the best wrestling. He will look to maul opponents against the cage & chain wrestle. I don’t know if he is going to be able to takedown Jorge. On top, Bergh has a lot of different attacks he will go to. He has good arm triangles, rear naked chokes, and heavy ground & pound. Bergh can be taken down if opponents avoid the submission & was submitted in his two losses. He looks okay off his back, and scrambles to stand up, but gives up his back and taps quick. Bergh has 6 submissions in his career finishing all eight of his wins. Bergh has only been out of round 1 one time in his entire career.
Jorge Gonzalez
Age: 24
Height: 6’0
Weight: 205
Reach: N/A
Gym: A.D.A.M.
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 82
Last Fought: 2 Weeks
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +125
Jorge Gonzalez is stepping up here on about a weeks’ notice here. Gonzalez is actually a better fighter than Timo Feucht, Bergh’s original opponent. Gonzalez has tested himself against pretty good competition in Russia. He has won seven of his last eight fights. On the feet, Gonzalez is a wild man with huge power. He loves to brawl & has one punch knockout power. He walks fighters down and is explosive and athletic. He uses straight punch blitzes to close the distance & when he has fighters backed up, he wings wide hooks. He gets into pocket wars & is very durable. Gonzalez is very fun to watch. He has 12 first round knockouts.
Jorge Gonzalez is not a super offensive wrestler. He will duck under & hit decent double legs. In top position, he isn’t very dangerous, but when he can posture up he has hard ground & pound. His defensive wrestling isn’t bad, but not great. In this fight, I think he’s going to have enough to probably keep it on the feet. On the mat, Gonzalez has been submitted four times. He has four submissions of his own.
This is basically a striker vs grappler matchup. Gonzalez is the striker in this matchup and he is taking this fight on short notice. He has only been out of the 1st round 1 time in his career so I feel like this is probably early KO or bust for him either way and I don’t know that short notice will matter a whole lot there. I think Gonzalez is very live for the early knockout win here, so I will take him, but if he doesn’t get it then he probably gets submitted. Either way, I don’t think we see the scorecards.
Winner – FIGHT IS CANCELED
Jack Shore $9,400 vs Aaron Phillips $6,800
Jack Shore
Age: 25
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 71”
Gym: Tillery Combat MMA
From: Wales
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 44
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W12
Betting Odds: -700
Jack Shore was successful in his UFC debut, running his win streak to 24. He has been nothing short of dominant in his MMA career & finished his last four fights in a row. On the feet, Shore is technical. He is light on his feet, bouncing in & out & likes using lateral movement to keep the distance. Shore has a really nice jab and a good one-two. He will use his jab or one-two to pull counter & slips & rips well. Shore has a very accurate straight-right hand. Shore has a nice lead left hook. He will double up with his lead hand by throwing double jabs, or jab, left hooks. Shore will occasionally throw leg & oblique kicks. Shore has nice round kicks to the head. He likes to use front kicks up the middle to the body and head. Shore fights smart on the feet as well. He doesn’t over extend or throw many combinations. He doesn’t engage in a pocket fight & always keeps the fight at his pace & distance. Shore is a disciplined fighter. He does stand a little tall & isn’t the most athletic or fast fighter. Therefore, I think he has to be very careful with the counters, straights, & leg/body kicks of Phillips. Shore isn’t a big knockout threat on the feet. He has 4 KO/TKO’s, but most from top position.
Jack Shore likes to mix it up. Shore’s wrestling allows him to duck under & get easy takedowns. He will also get trip takedowns in the clinch. When Shore gets top position, he looks very good. He has great control & passes to dominant positions well. Shore has a very heavy mount & great back takes. He is good at flattening opponents out when he takes the back & unloading G&P. Shore will either finish with the shots or lock in rear naked chokes. Shore has 5 career rear naked chokes. In his last match, the first takedown he earned, he quickly took the back & for the rear naked choke. Shore’s takedown defense is pretty solid. In his last match, he showed good balance defending a single leg. He is good at using the kimura to counter takedowns against the cage. In his last two fights, I have seen him taken down in the clinch. Shore was tripped & taken down along with hip thrown in his last match. Off his back, Shore is composed & works back to his feet. Shore has a good butterfly guard & it’s hard to pass his guard. He will use it to scramble back to his feet or sweep to top position. He has good get-ups against the cage & overall is a strong, well-rounded grappler. Shore has 7 career submissions. His style allows him to keep the same pace for all three rounds. He has very good cardio & finished his last three fights in round 3.
Aaron Phillips
Age: 30
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: Headkicks MMA
From: Louisiana
UFC Record: 0-2
Fight Matrix: 188
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: +500
Aaron Phillips is stepping in here on short notice. He is getting a very stiff test in Jack Shore. Phillips has won 5 fights in a row, but the level of competition has been very questionable. He has had an interesting career. He made the UFC, got cut, and then took almost three years off after losing to Chris Gutierrez in 2015 on the regional scene. He is undefeated since returning in 2018 and getting a second shot at a UFC career. Phillips is a Muay Thai striker. Phillips has good, straight punches down the middle & heavy kicks. He throws nice, straight punch counters, and has fast hand speed. He will throw some nice knees. He will throw hard round kicks to the legs, body & head. He will stalk opponents & keep them at the end of his shots well. His style is very Muay Thai based, so he is flat footed & in the pocket doesn’t have the best boxing defense. He is very hittable and can get hurt & rocked. He was hurt multiple times & almost finished by Ariston Franca in his last fight. He has power himself & 6 KO/TKO’s. He has been finished by strikes once, but it was due to injury.
Aaron Phillips is not a very good grappler. In the clinch, he does have nasty elbows & knees due to his Muay Thai experience. He can hurt fighters there, but his wrestling is really lacking. He doesn’t have good takedown defense or Jiu-Jitsu. Against low level guys since returning, I’ve seen them pass his guard fairly easily & win a round by controlling him. He does try to hit sweeps, but he just isn’t very good on the ground. He tends to get dominated on the mat but survive & eventually see or get to a dominant position against a tired opponent and finish. He is tough & has good cardio. He has only been submitted one time.
Shore should dominate this fight with his wrestling and grappling. I expect that is what he will do but I think he is a guy that needs to do that in all his fights because that is where his big strength is. Phillips is a lower level fighter so maybe Shore looks to test out his striking in a fight like this, and if that is the case, no chance would I lay -700, but we have no way of knowing that and I just have to expect him to have the smart game plan of getting this fight to the mat.
Shore is the best play on the slate in all-formats, assuming he goes out here and grapples like he should. He is the most expensive fighter, but he is by far the biggest betting favorite with an ITD line of -235 and he scored 121 DK points in his debut. He will be very owned this week, but I still want to be above the field and if I am making 20 or less lineups I might even just go all-in. I think we have enough live dogs where we can take a stand on Shore and just mix around the underdogs with what fits. That is just the type of builds I am thinking personally but he isn’t a must have and if you want to go underweight that is fine as well. He basically needs to score the most on the card to be on the nuts and I am not super confident that happens, I just like his chances and I feel like this is an easy, high scoring win to lock in. He is a stone lock for me in cash games as well, but I don’t know that I will even play any cash games this week. Phillips is a big GPP ownership type play because he should be the lowest owned on the card and if he wins, not only do you kill off 50+% of Shore lineups, but you would also only be competing with maybe 4% of the field for that top spot because I would assume he scores well in a win because a KO is probably his only shot.
Winner – Jack Shore via Submission
Diana Belbita $8,600 vs Liana Jojua $7,600
Diana Belbita
Age: 24
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 68.5”
Gym: House of Champions MMA
From: Romania
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -165
Diana Belbita was unsuccessful in her UFC debut dropping a unanimous decision to Molly McCann. She was thoroughly dominated in that fight and will be looking for a better showing here. Belbita is a very tough, come forward striker. She pressures heavy & likes to mix it up and force a brawl. She will throw nice one-twos, jabs, overhands & jab, hook combos. She has some nice uppercuts inside. Belbita has nice low kicks, and heavy round & front kicks to the body. She is the bigger girl with a large reach advantage here. I think she is the much more athletic fighter also. She is very tough durable and is a dog. Belbita has six KO/TKO’s and has never been finished by strikes.
Diana Belbita is strong in the clinch. She is a judo champion. She has heavy hips, is strong & uses her height to her advantage. She will come over the top with elbows and throws nice knees to the body. Belbita struggles with takedown shots on the legs. She is taken down much easier with double legs. Belbita isn’t the worst off her back & has good get-ups. Molly McCann was very dogged in their matchup, and ultimately got to some dominant positions and smashed on Diana. Belbita showed a lot of toughness and survived a lot of punishment. Belbita will look for takedowns of her own in the clinch. She is pretty good and dangerous on top. On top, she throws big elbows, punches & ground & pound. She will posture up and explode looking to finish the fight if she can take the mount or back mount. Throughout her career Belbita has had trouble with submission defense. She leaves her arms inside in fighter’s guards & has been guillotined as well. Belbita has been submitted 3 times. She is an aggressive finisher on the ground herself. She has four submissions & some ground & pound finishes. Belbita is the more dangerous fighter. Her cardio is good, and she has the experience advantage here as well. We will see if she can use that experience to get the win.
Liana Jojua
Age: 25
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 62”
Gym: Akhmat FT
From: Georgia
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +145
Liana Jojua had a rough first outing in the UFC. She was a decent favorite & getting a favorable matchup in Sarah Moras. Unfortunately for her, she dropped the ball & was finished with ground & pound in the third round. It was a terrible performance & she needs to show something here to redeem herself. I am not really impressed with Jojua’s striking. It did look a bit improved in her last fight. Jojua was throwing some nice one-twos. She was throwing a straight-right to the body to a left hook to the head. Her overhand right was landing & she was having some success. She doesn’t throw many kicks or much of anything besides that. She does keep heavy pressure on opponents & keeps them on the back foot. She has pretty good composure & looks durable. She is very stiff though & hittable. She doesn’t move her head & is there to be hit. She was TKO’d on the ground for the first time in her career in her last fight. Her stand up isn’t very dangerous & she just has one career TKO.
Jojua’s grappling is average. She was dominated in the clinch in her last match. Sarah Moras was able to get her to the cage, control her & land nice knees. Jojua did defend the takedowns well and got a couple takedowns of her own. She will use her punches to get in & duck under for double legs. She will get some clinch takedowns as well. She has no problem pulling guard. She is a leg lock girl & is always hunting for the legs & 50-50 position. She will finish them, but more adept at using them to sweep. She has nice armbars off her back as well. Jojua shot a very sloppy takedown in her last fight, gave her back & ultimately was pounded out from side control. In top position, she has shown good ground & pound. She will go to side control & throw down heavy hammerfists. She is a finisher on the mat with 5 submissions. She has been submitted one time.
Both of these fighters are coming off a loss in their UFC debuts but Jojua looked really bad in hers and I have to think her best shot of a victory here is an armbar. I expect Belbita to be the better all-around fighter with all the ways to win this fight and she is my pick. She just isn’t very good either, so she is hard to trust, but this looks like it could be the perfect UFC matchup for her. I expect Belbita to win the striking exchanges pretty clearly and that being what wins her this fight.
I think either side is in play for DraftKings, but this is not a fight I will be targeting much. Belbita is my preferred play because I think she wins and I think she will have low ownership. She could strike at a high pace and possibly finish and be the key to a huge win, so I do like her a bit and she will make my player pool, but I wouldn’t start any lineups there. Jojua is also in play because she could get a submission and if she does that at her price she is live for the optimal lineup. I think she is a decent MME target for GPPs, but I might just full fade her to get leverage elsewhere. I don’t really want to invest in her and I doubt I go over 50 lineups this week, so I don’t want to use every fighter and I usually like to X out 5-7 if I can. I might end up making her one of them but if you want to use her in any format, I wouldn’t talk you out of it.
Winner – Diana Belbita via Unanimous Decision
Jared Gordon $8,300 vs Chris Fishgold $7,900
Jared Gordon
Age: 31
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 68”
Gym: Sanford MMA
From: New York
UFC Record: 3-3
Fight Matrix: 106
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -145
Jared Gordon is making the drop back down to 145 lbs after a 1-3 run at LW in the UFC. Gordon has been knocked out in three of his last four fights, and just has not looked good. Gordon made a lot of changes coming into this fight. Not only is he moving back down to 145 lbs, but he has also switched gyms & is now training at Sanford MMA. Jared Gordon as a striker isn’t bad. Gordon’s striking game is forward pressure. He is in perpetual forward motion, always walking his opponents down, and stalking them towards the cage. He has a nice check left hook and decent jab. He has a good straight-right hand. He does a good job of feinting level changes, and then blasting that straight-right. He will throw straight punches in combination in close range. He has a decent body kick. Gordon’s defense is not good. He holds his hands low and is very hittable. He relies on his chin to get inside. The issue is he has been knocked out badly in two of his last three fights. His chin may be gone, so it’s just hard to trust him. Gordon has been finished by KO/TKO in all his losses. He has six KO/TKO’s himself.
Jared Gordon is a good wrestler. He will use his punches to set up double legs, and he does a good job of using the double leg to push his opponents to the cage and change it into a single. He is strong in the clinch and has nice, short punches and elbows. He does a good job of ducking under and landing reactive double legs as well. On top, he has strong ground & pound and good control. He likes to get into half guard, posture up and throw elbows and punches. He is very active with ground & pound and does a lot of damage. He has a heavy top pressure game and does a good job of staying out of his opponent’s guards and raining down shots. He likes to get to side control and get the crucifix position. He has very good cardio and does not slow down much. He has 2 submissions and has never been finished by submission.
Chris Fishgold
Age: 28
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 68”
Gym: Next Generation MMA LP
From: England
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 138
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +125
Chris Fishgold is set to return to the octagon after over a year away from the cage. He is coming off a loss to Makwan Amirkhani, & with a 1-2 UFC record he needs a win here. Fishgold is a super aggressive fighter that keeps a crazy pace. On the feet, he is pretty explosive early on. He has a wide stance, decent jabs, straights, and powerful hooks, overhands and uppercuts. He will throw a heavy dose of low leg kicks. He will blitz in with straight punches, overhands and hooks inside. Fishgold actually gauges distance pretty well, has decent head movement & is hard to hit. He will slip shots & come over the top with hooks. On the feet, I think he probably will have an advantage early on & needs to try to push the gas & get Gordon out of there if he sees the opportunity.
Chris Fishgold is a good grappler. Fishgold likes to close the distance with overhands or straight punches and get a single collar tie in the clinch. He will use a double jab, straight-right hand to get inside. He is strong there and bullies fighters to the cage or to the ground in the clinch. He has decent level changes & good singles and doubles. He is relentless in his attempt for them and likes to shoot takedowns in the first ten seconds of fights. Fishgold is very dangerous with chokes and can get them even from standing position. He will clamp onto the neck from the clinch and jump on guillotines. He loves to jump on the back from standing or taking it on the ground. Fishgold is a very aggressive submission over position guy. His top control isn’t the greatest. In his match with Daniel Teymur, Teymur was able to get top position and rain down some shots. Fishgold is pretty dangerous from inside his guard. He has good armbars & triangles. He will go for leg locks. He is good at catching the neck in scrambles. His get-up game is not bad. He was close to submitting Makwan Amirkhani with a guillotine when he shot in on him. He did pull guard with the guillotine which I don’t like to see. Makwan was able to take advantage of that when he got on top, locked in an anaconda and finished Fishgold off. That was the first submission loss of his career. Fishgold has 13 submissions of his own. His cardio is a question mark, but he did look a bit improved with that in his last fight.
This should be a fun, high paced fight. I give Gordon the edge on the feet and Fishgold the edge on the ground. Gordon might have the wrestling to keep this fight standing though and Fishgold might have the power to test Gordon’s weak chin on the feet. I think Fishgold probably needs a finish here though whether that be a KO or submission, but I give Gordon the edge on pace and cardio and the longer this fight goes the more it should favor him.
This is one of the better DK fights to target this week. These guys are both high-paced fighters and they are priced in the mid-range where I think a win from either would get at least 10x, but probably more and both have 100+ upside as well. I don’t have a strong lean on this one, so I won’t take a big stance, but Gordon is my preferred GPP play I think and Fishgold would be my preferred cash play. I think Gordon’s chin is just too bad to trust in cash games but if he does get this win I feel like he scores 100 or more, even in a decision. This guy had 91 DK points in a 3rd round KO loss, and he even had 139 in his UFC debut. I love that type of ceiling and boom/bust is what we want in GPPs. Fishgold should have the edge on the ground here though, fights at a high pace, and could also test Gordon’s chin, so I like him a good bit as well and this is close to an all-in fight for me. I would guess this lineup ends up in 75% or more of my lineups with the slight edge going to Gordon. If you are picking Fishgold then you should be higher on him, but I would not be fading either side of this fight if you are MMEing.
Winner – Jared Gordon via Unanimous Decision
Modestas Bukauskas $9,000 vs Andreas Michailidis $7,200
Modestas Bukauskas
Age: 26
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: N/A
Gym: Giants Combat
From: Lithuania
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 80
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -230
Modestas Bukauskas will be making his UFC debut riding a six-fight finish streak. He was originally scheduled to face Vinicius Moreira, but with Moreira testing positive for COVID, he now faces Andreas Michailidis. Modestas is the cage warriors LHW champion and has faced some alright competition. Modestas is a striker & most confident when he can keep it on the feet. He has a wide stance & tries to fight long. He uses a lot of lateral movement, jabs and left hooks. He has a nice straight-right hand & overhand right. Modestas likes to land one-twos, jab, overhand rights, and pot shot fighters. He will throw some liver kicks and round kicks to the head. He has a really nasty spinning back kick to the body. Modestas just isn’t the most athletic or fast guy. He holds his hands down, and his style is reliant on in & out movement and being quick. At the higher levels, I just don’t think he will be successful. Modestas will throw naked kicks & float his chin. He is there to be countered after he throws punches, and he leaves his lead leg out there to get chewed up. Modestas does hit pretty hard & has seven KO’s in 10 wins. I wouldn’t say he has crazy power or anything though. Modestas has been KO’d one time.
Modestas Bukauskas is not a grappler. He really struggles with that facet of his game and has putrid takedown defense. Bukauskas can be flat footed & throws naked kicks, which lead to him getting taken down a lot. Fighters can get in on his hips very easily & take him down. He doesn’t have good takedown defense against the cage or in the clinch either. In his last match, he did land some hard elbows to the side of the head when his opponent went for the takedown & got the finish. Off his back, he doesn’t offer much. He will just look to keep fighters in his guard, maybe throw some elbows and look for a ref stand up. Modestas doesn’t have very good get-ups, and against higher level ground fighters he will be in trouble. Modestas hardly ever wrestles or looks to get in top position. If he drops opponents, he will finish with ground & pound. He has been submitted one time. He has two rear naked choke victories over low level opposition. Bukauskas does have very good cardio. Even after getting dominated for multiple rounds, he is still fresh enough to get late finishes.
Andreas Michailidis
Age: 31
Height: 6’0
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: EFL Martial Arts Academy
From: Greece
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 77
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +190
Andreas Michailidis has accepted the call & short notice opportunity with the UFC. He is facing another newcomer in Bukauskas. Michailidis has won 6 of 7 & faced some decent competition. This will be Michailidis’ first fight at LHW, as he usually employs his trade at 185. He will be giving up some height, reach & weight in there. That makes me nervous because Michailidis has gassed out really bad in fights where he weighed 185. Andreas likes to get his work done early. He has finished 9 of his 12 wins in round one and is only 1-1 when fights go to round three. Andreas is a skilled fighter though. He fights long & rangy. He has a crisp, snappy jab and will throw some long, straight punches. Andreas has nasty kicks; Really nice low kicks and round kicks to the body & head. He will throw spinning kicks and is a pretty dynamic fighter. In his fight with UFC veteran Marcel Fortuna, he dropped him with a spinning back kick to the head and finished him off with ground & pound. Andreas has good distance control & defense when fresh, but after round one he slows down and becomes much more hittable. All three of his losses are TKO’s after he gassed out. He has 7 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Andreas Michailidis is the superior grappler in this fight. He has pretty good level changes. Andreas has very good double legs. On top, he is aggressive with his passing & ground & pound. He will look to get to dominant positions & smash on fighters with elbows and punches. Andreas isn’t a big submission threat, but he does have four in his career. He is a finisher, finishing all but one of his wins.
Michailidis is taking this fight on short notice, up a weight class, so he will be the smaller guy in this matchup. I can’t say I was impressed with either guy but skill for skill, I guess I was more impressed by Michailidis and I think he could have success with leg kicks and possibly get a knockout. Bukauskas didn’t look bad anywhere, but he also didn’t look good anywhere and I think size and cardio are his two big advantages here. I would say Bukauskas is the rightful favorite, but I don’t know that he wins this fight 70% or more of the time which is what we would need with these odds, so I will go ahead and pick the underdog to get a stoppage.
Michailidis is my preferred play here but this is another close to all-in fight. We have a FDGTD line of -300 which implies that this fight ends inside the distance 75% of the time. I think that is a good percentage to have in your lineups as well. I prefer Michailidis because he is cheaper, he is a dog I am picking, and if he wins, he is going to finish and score well. I love all that for DK. I just don’t have any confidence in him actually winning so I have to take shots on Bukauskas as well because he probably finishes as well if he gets the win, and if Michailidis doesn’t get the win early, Bukauskas is going to take over. I would not touch either side in cash, but this is a great GPP fight to target and I will be more so on the underdog side myself.
Winner – Andreas Michailidis via 1st round (T)KO
Ricardo Ramos $8,800 vs Lerone Murphy $7,400
Ricardo Ramos
Age: 24
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 72”
Gym: Ed Lutas Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 5-1
Fight Matrix: 86
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -165
Ricardo Ramos is a fantastic athlete with good striking & elite Jiu-Jitsu. Ramos has nice outside leg kicks. He will throw the occasional jab & one-two. He has really improved his boxing. He has a nice one-two & counter left hook. He will rip the body with hooks in close range & throw tight left hooks upstairs. He has a nice rear uppercut. His check left hook is accurate. He will throw an overhand right as well. He likes to throw a jab to a roundhouse or question mark head kick. He will throw front kicks & round kicks to the body. He has a nice step-in knee to the body also. He will throw spinning kicks to the body. He throws nasty spinning back elbows to the head & he had a knockout of the year candidate with one in 2017. He doesn’t throw much volume & unless he addresses that, I see him being in a lot of close fights unless he can find finishes. In his fight with Said Nurmagomedov, he was hurt to the body & taken out quickly. It was the first & only time he was finished by strikes in his career. He has two KO/TKO’s.
Ramos is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu champion & a very dangerous with submissions in top & bottom position. Ramos likes to fake level changes & come up with rear uppercuts and spinning back elbows. He is strong in the clinch with knees to the body and has a good body lock takedown. His takedown defense is very strong & he has an excellent get-up game. He will bounce right back to his feet & is extremely hard to control on the mat. He will also attack immediately with submissions & try to create scrambles. He has super-fast hips, great armbars & triangles along with nice leg locks. In his guard, he will try to trap an arm and attack with hard elbows and then look for submissions. Kang was able to control him with heavy pressure in his guard and landed a few nice elbows. Ramos was able to eventually attack with a knee bar, almost got the finish, but used it to sweep. Ramos isn’t a super active wrestler, but he will shoot double legs when opponents are near the cage & has decent reactive doubles. He also has good body lock trips. On top, he likes to get to the back & get rear naked chokes. He tends to slow down in round 3 and not throw as much. He does have 2 third round finishes including one in the UFC where he was down 20-18. He has 6 submissions in his career & has been submitted one time.
Lerone Murphy
Age: 28
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: Manchester Top Team
From: England
UFC Record: 0-0-1
Fight Matrix: 231
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: 1Draw
Betting Odds: +145
Lerone Murphy has pretty much been a buzz saw so far in his career. He is extremely fast, athletic & dominated most of his opponents. He did get a draw in his last matchup but looked good. He has very good in & out movement while switching stances at the same time. He has a good jab, & heavy leg kicks. He has a nasty one-two. His straight-right hand is a lightning bolt & is extremely accurate. Murphy has great head movement & is calm in the pocket. He will slip & rip with hooks & overhands along with body shots. He has nice kicking technique; Good round kicks to the body and head. He will throw front leg sidekicks to the body & head that has a lot of pop on it. He is explosive & closes a lot of distance with his blitz combinations. His defense is good, but he slows down & his hands drop. He will back up against the cage and just shell up & try to slip shots instead of moving. Murphy is dangerous with big power. He has 5 KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished. He got dropped in his last match & recovered very quickly.
Murphy’s grappling is still largely a question mark. He has good movement & probably will be hard to get in on. In Lerone Murphy’s last fight, he proved he is very hard to take down & hold down. He is very physically strong & has good get-ups. He was able to stand up from bottom & attack off his back vs Zubaira Tukhugov. He will attack some subs off his back. In his last win he did get a body lock takedown & finished with ground & pound. He doesn’t have any submissions. His cardio looked very good in his last fight & he’s an interesting prospect.
Murphy surprised a lot of people in his UFC debut. This is another similar matchup for him though where he is going to need to keep this fight standing to have any chance. Ramos is solid on the feet as well, but he is very inactive, and Murphy could either knock him out or win a decision based on landing more volume and the harder shots. Ramos is the more technical striker though IMO, he just doesn’t do enough on the feet to trust him if you knew he wouldn’t look for takedowns. He should have a big edge on the ground though and Murphy was taken down 6 times in his last fight, so I believe Ramos will have success there and he could get a submission if so.
Ramos is my preferred play here, but I think he is only going to score well with a finish. $8.8k seems like too high of a price for him to pay off in a decision unless he does a lot of work on the ground. I expect this, and his betting line to keep him a bit underowned though and that is what I do like about him here. I think he is very live to get a submission in any round here and if he does it in round one then I would assume he has a takedown and at least one advance, so he would score near 100 or more and I think that is a possible outcome here. I won’t be heavy on Ramos, but I do think he is playable in all formats and he will be in my player pool. Murphy probably needs a finish as well to be on the optimal lineup, but it is in play with a knockout. He has power and this fight will probably be close on the feet, so I probably end up throwing Murphy in a couple lineups, but I think if you are making 5 or less you can avoid him here and maybe this fight as a whole.
Winner – Ricardo Ramos via 1st round Submission
Khamzat Chimaev $8,900 vs John Phillips $7,300
Khamzat Chimaev
Age: 26
Height: 6’2
Weight: 185
Reach: N/A
Gym: Allstars Training Center
From: Sweden
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 119
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -335
Khamzat Chimaev will be making his UFC debut on short notice here. He is young in his career at just 6-0, but already getting the UFC call. Chimaev has finished all 6 of his wins and beaten fighters with good records. He is moving back up to 185 lbs for this fight, but he has fought there before already. Chimaev is a training partner of Alex Gustafsson, coming out of Allstars training center. He is 6’2, tall & rangy. He is good at using his jab & low kicks to maintain distance. Chimaev is usually super aggressive though and closes distance with tight one-twos. He has a nice one-two, left, right hook combination. He has some decent kicks. Chimaev dropped Ikrim Aliskerov with a jab, and ultimately knocked him out with a beautiful slip uppercut. It’s hard to say truly how good Chimaev’s striking is, because I haven’t seen much of it. He is very aggressive closing the distance with strikes & working to get the fight to the mat. That game plan will serve him well in this fight. Chimaev has 3 KO/TKO’s in his career, and in the one fight he struck predominately, he showed good things.
Khamzat Chimaev is a very good grappler. He is super aggressive on the mat. Chimaev is a Swedish national champion wrestler. He has been able to out wrestle Georgia State champion wrestler Sidney Wheeler, and combat sambo champion Ikram Aliskerov. He has good body lock trips. He will hit nice double legs. In top position, he is a beast. He will get into dominant positions and rain down thunderous shots. He is very good at trapping wrists when he gets to the back or wrestling ride position & just raining shots until the fight gets called. He is constantly changing positions aggressively, passing & looking for openings to finish. If he gets top position in this fight, I feel pretty good in saying the fight will be over shortly after. I have seen him choke more than one opponent unconscious. Chimaev has three career submissions. He made it out of the first round for the first time in his career in his last match & still looked full of energy. Chimaev looks like the real deal.
John Phillips
Age: 35
Height: 5’11
Weight: 185
Reach: 75”
Gym: SBG Ireland
From: Wales
UFC Record: 1-3
Fight Matrix: 139
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +275
John Phillips entered the UFC win column with a resounding 14 second knockout of Alen Amedovski in November. That win snapped a three-fight losing streak for Phillips. John Phillips’ nickname tells it all. He is there to knock your head off, the white Mike Tyson. Phillips has devastating one punch knockout power & is very durable. Phillips is a solid boxer. He has a nice one-two & a powerful right hook. He will throw wild overhand right, left hook combinations. He will throw hard hooks & uppercuts to close the distance. He has solid hand speed & is extremely dangerous in the pocket. Kevin Holland had him hurt multiple times but was unwilling to engage in the pocket due to Phillips’ power. Phillips throttled Jack Marshman early in round one of his last match & had Marshman on his bike the rest of the fight. He throws heavy low leg kicks. He can be out struck by fighters who can stay long. He has a great chin & is very hard to put away. He keeps heavy, forward pressure, walks through shots, to get in the pocket & let his hands go. When he gets fighters backed towards the cage, he will unload with hard hook & uppercut combinations to the body & head. Phillips has 19 KO/TKO’s in 22 wins.
Phillips is not a good grappler and has very poor submission defense. He has been submitted many times. He doesn’t have good takedown defense & can be taken down fairly easily when opponents get in on his legs. His opponents can also take him down by catching his kicks. Off his back, he doesn’t have much. He seems lost & will only just try to explode to his feet while exposing his back. He was submitted very quickly by Charles Byrd in his UFC debut. He has been submitted 5 times.
Chimaev took this fight on late notice but it is a great matchup for him. Phillips is a striker only and mainly a brawler, if he can suck Chimaev into a brawl that is ideal for him, but he is knockout or bust either way. Chimaev has big power on the feet as well but he should be able to dominate this fight on the ground and when you have an edge like that there is no real reason to go out there and strike with Phillips when that is your only danger. I think Chimaev gets this fight to the ground fast and works his way to a submission.
Chimaev is a top 3 play on the card for me and a guy I want to be sure to be overweight on. I think the only path to him losing is an early KO, which puts Phillips in play, but Chimaev is a grappler and should dominate on the mat and likely get a submission. I think him, Shore, Razak, and Kattar are all great plays this weekend so I will be mixing them all in and hoping I hit the right combo. But I do like Chimaev to get this fight to the ground early and probably a 1st round submission that would get us near 100 if not more. Not an all-in play, but close to an all-in fight and I don’t think we even see round 3 either way.
Winner – Khamzat Chimaev via 1st round Submission
Abdul Razak Alhassan $9,200 vs Mounir Lazzez $7,000
Abdul Razak Alhassan
Age: 34
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Ghana
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -335
Abdul Razak Alhassan is making his long-awaited return after some issues outside of the octagon. The last time we saw him in November of 2018, he was knocking Niko Price out in less than one minute. Alhassan is a ruthless, aggressive fighter. All 10 of his victories are first round knockouts, 6 of them lasting less than one minute. He goes in there explodes & gets out. He is supremely athletic & powerful. Alhassan is very wild. He will quickly look to back up his opponents and throw jab, overhand rights. He has good in & out movement & is very fast closing the distance. He will explode in with brutal straights & uppercuts. He likes to switch it up between the overhand right & uppercut as a lead. He will switch stances on the outside. He has thudding low kicks. He will sometimes throw some high kicks. Inside, Razak is nasty. He has one punch power even in close range. He will find tricky uppercuts and has a nice, tight left hook. He tries to force opponents to brawl with him & make fights wars. In those exchanges, Alhassan is just faster & more powerful. It’s a dangerous game to trade with Alhassan.
Abdul Razak Alhassan has a strong judo background. He is going to be the much better grappler here, but I doubt he goes for takedowns. Alhassan has very heavy hips, good clinch takedowns, and is super hard to hold down. His takedown defense is questionable, but he will continue to get back to his feet. In his one loss with Omari Okhmedov, he proved that & even won the third round convincingly. Alhassan isn’t going to have to worry about someone taking him down here though. It’s going to be interesting how he looks after the layoff, and being 34 years old, but he should be ready to go.
Mounir Lazzez
Age: 32
Height: 6’2
Weight: 170
Reach: N/A
Gym: Team Nogueira Dubai
From: Tunisia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 258
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +275
Mounir Lazzez will be making his UFC debut with a 9-1 record. Lazzez fights out of Dubai, so he will have a big advantage in terms of the travel. Lazzez looks like a skilled striker. He is tall, long & rangy. Lazzez has fast hands & throws an excellent jab. He will double & triple up on the jab. He likes to touch with the lead hand whether it’s with the jab or left hook & then follow with the straight or overhand right. Lazzez has nice lead uppercuts. He will throw heavy wide hooks. Lazzez is good at staying long with his punches when he goes forward. Lazzez is okay at blocking & returning & skipping & returning in the pocket. He has fast hands & is very accurate. Lazzez has strong kicks as well; Heavy round kicks to the legs body & head. He will disguise his head kicks behind punches along with changing the speed of them to land them effectively. He will throw some question mark kicks and spinning kicks. Lazed has nasty step-in knees. He has very good standing elbows. Mounir has good fakes, feints & decent footwork, but doesn’t react to pressure the best. He does stand tall & when fighters get inside his reach, he is there to be hit. He doesn’t move his head very much & just relies on his chin. He does have a really good chin & eats flush shots to give his own. He is susceptible to body shots also. Mounir is very athletic & confident which makes him dangerous. He has knocked out 8 of his 10 opponents.
Mounir Lazzez is not the greatest grappler. His offensive wrestling is improving. He will shoot some single legs when he can back fighters to the cage. He has decent trips in the clinch. On top, Lazzez is isn’t that dangerous. He doesn’t have the best control. His takedown defense is not very good. He can be taken & held down in fights. Lazzez will work back to his feet & attack right away. He tries to tire fighters out by forcing them to take him down over & over. Lazzez has very good cardio. He is going to have a favorable matchup in this fight, and the striking fight he wants.
This is going to be awesome as long as it lasts and one of these guys is probably getting knocked out. Alhassan is one of the scariest first round strikers on the UFC roster but he has been away from the sport due to some legal issues he was found not guilty of. It is a real shame that happened because we probably missed out on 2 years of this guy’s prime and who really knows what to expect now. Lazzez is a striker as well though so he is going to give Alhassan the fight he wants, and vice versa. I have to lean with Alhassan because I think he has more power and has fought and beat the better competition, but I don’t know that I would lay over 3-1 because I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get knocked out himself.
There are 5 fights that seem like they could be all-in fights on any card on this slate alone. I will be very high on all 5 fights, but this is a card where I will be sure to MME for that reason. This is another one of those fights. We have a -515 FDGTD line on this one and this should be a banger where we get at least 1 knockdown and then it ends in someone sleeping. I like Alhassan as much as the next guy and I do want a lot of him in GPPs. He could very easily go out there and get a brutal KO in the opening seconds or minutes of this fight and he scores well if that happens. I just expect him to be very popular, so I am not getting any real edge that way. That is making Lazzez my preferred play here because I think he will be overlooked and underowned this week and this kid looks pretty damn good. Maybe even better than Razak, but hard to tell with the competition and Razak is scarier and more powerful. I wouldn’t touch either side in cash games, but I will be basically all-in on this fight and probably 90% or so of my lineups. I am just really getting the feeling that Lazzez could be the key to the slate where we don’t really know what we are getting from Alhassan after life changing time off.
Winner – Abdul Razak Alhassan via 1st round (T)KO
Molly McCann $8,200 vs Talia Santos $8,000
Molly McCann
Age: 30
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 62”
Gym: Next Gen MMA Liverpool
From: England
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 19
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -120
Molly McCann has righted the ship since losing her UFC debut. She has run off three consecutive wins and is close to the rankings. Her personality has helped her grow a fan base & I could see her getting a marquee fight with a victory here. McCann still isn’t really that good in my opinion. She is just fighting bottom of the barrel opponents. McCann as a striker isn’t terrible. She is small for the weight class & usually is at a height and reach disadvantage. Due to that she likes to use a lot of movement on the outside, and then dart in & out of range with strikes. She can struggle to find her range at times. McCann’s boxing isn’t bad. She has a decent jab and good straight-right hand. She will throw a lot of feints & sets her shots up well. She has good left hook, straight-right hands combinations. She loves throwing the left hook using that shot early & often. McCann will close distance with straights & hooks to the body. She is willing to throw down & brawl in the pocket. She can get sloppy & doesn’t have the best defense. McCann isn’t the best kicker but will work low kicks. She will mix in some front & round kicks to the body. McCann likes to throw spinning backfists as well. She is willing to take one to give one & is a firecracker. She welcomes a slug fest and isn’t backing down. McCann tends to run into punches though & on the feet in this fight I see her struggling. She isn’t a power puncher and is going to be at a big power disadvantage in this fight. McCann is durable & has four KO/TKO’s in her career.
McCann continued to show the evolution in her grappling her last time out. She was able to dominate the fight on the ground & almost get her opponent out of there. McCann does a good job of using a flurry of feints to enter into double legs. She was dominant in the clinch her last fight, getting the head and arm position from standing & using that to get multiple takedowns. McCann is getting better in the scrambles & was able to take Belbita’s back and almost finish with punches. McCann still isn’t elite on the mat or anything, but she is getting better at blending her skills & wrestling specifically. When she gets in on the hips, she looks pretty strong & explosive. The issue is sometimes McCann can struggle to set up her takedowns or get in range to shoot them. In this fight, I think she needs a heavy dose of wrestling and cage control to win. McCann has not been submitted since her loss to Gillian Robertson and is still in search of her first career submission. McCann has a lot of output & pretty good cardio. She has slowed down in third rounds before, but she keeps up a good work rate.
Taila Santos
Age: 27
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Astra Fight Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +100
Taila Santos is looking for a different result following her split decision loss in her UFC debut. Previous to the loss, Santos was undefeated at 15-0 outside the UFC. When you look deeper into that record, it is very padded. She has really only faced 3 fighters of note in her entire career. This will be her first fight in well over a year, and she is coming off an injury. On the feet, Santos is a technical striker. She has very heavy kicks & a stinging jab. She will throw heavy low kicks as well as really nasty round & front kicks to the body & high kicks. She will throw jab, low kick combinations that are nasty. She is going to have to stay long & use her reach here. Santos has fast hands and shoots the one-two to the body and head very effectively. She will throw a long, slapping left hook. Santos has good pull counters & counter hooks. She throws some nice body shots. Santos is not good defensively. She is flat footed & doesn’t move her head at all. When she gets hit, she backs up & doesn’t like it. Santos is a power hitter though & has 10 KO/TKO’s.
Taila Santos was exposed a bit in her last match. Santos is strong in the clinch offensively. She has good head positioning, knees to the legs, body and control. She will hit clinch takedowns and is good at taking the back from standing. The issue is Santos is flat footed. When she is pressured, she will try to strike while backing up in straight lines. That makes her very easy to get inside on and clinch up against the cage. She seems to not be good at blending it together. Borella would come forward with a flurry of shots solely to close the distance & it seemed like Santos didn’t understand that until the third round. When she adjusted she was able to easily deny the entries and dominate the third round. Santos just wasn’t on for that fight early. It was most evident to me in the second round, when the ref broke the clinch against the cage. Borella was ready to go, while Santos was just standing there fixing her shorts when the ref said go, and Borella just clinched her up against the cage again. It was as if her brain wasn’t fully on and firing in there that night. I haven’t seen many girls take down Santos with shots from the outside, but I do feel she can get taken down by them. I just think right now she hasn’t shown the ability to mix her skills. I think if a girl comes forward with a combination & then ducks under for a double she won’t be ready to defend it. She is going to have to improve her footwork a bit & up the volume and forward pressure. She needs to either pressure or land & get out. She can’t be so static. Santos has pretty good get-ups when taken down, and I don’t think McCann will be able to dominate her, but she needs to avoid getting held against the cage & or taken down multiple times. Santos has just two career submissions. In her last fight, she lost by getting held against the cage. She needs to get going off the bat & get the win here. Her cardio is good & she will have the striking advantage.
I’d say Santos is the more technical striker here and probably the more dangerous of the two with submissions. McCann is the more aggressive, higher paced striker though and I think she is the one more likely to land takedowns as well where she can have success with top control and ground and pound. Most of Santos’ success has come against very low level, regional talent and McCann has faced and beat the better competition. I just see McCann being the one pushing forward and not giving the space Santos needs to work with and making this more of a dirty fight that fits her style.
McCann is the preferred play here and Santos is probably a pass for me. She could get an early sub and ruin my night, but I don’t see her knocking out or out voluming McCann here, so I feel like the sub is her only path to the optimal. McCann hasn’t even finished a UFC fight and she still scored 105, 100, and 127 in her 3 wins, so I am very interested in her and I like her in all formats. She has the style to score well in any win and her price at $8.2k is going to make 100+ a lock for the optimal here. I want to be overweight on McCann here, but she is only -120 so I will be careful with my ownership because she isn’t a lock to win at all. I just think she does get the job done and scores well if that is the case.
Winner – Molly McCann via Unanimous Decision
Jimmie Rivera $8,400 vs Cody Stamann $7,800
Jimmie Rivera
Age: 31
Height: 5’4
Weight: 135
Reach: 68.5”
Gym: Tiger Schulmann’s MMA
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 6-3
Fight Matrix: 14
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -135
Jimmie Rivera is making his return after a year away from the octagon. He has suffered a couple injuries & coming off two losses in a row, this is a make or break fight for him. Rivera has been fighting the best of the best in the division but losing is losing. He is looking like someone who may be on the way out at 31 years old. His chin is failing him & that’s a major issue. This fight will be up at 145 lbs, so it’s possible keeping a little more weight on will help his chin. I will say his last fight with Petr Yan was awesome. Jimmie Rivera is a very polished striker out of Team Tiger Schulmann with crisp boxing. He prefers to box in combination in the pocket and has hard, powerful hooks and straight punches. His hand speed is phenomenal, and he has some of the fastest hands in the division. He has great timing on his straight-left to right hook combination. He has nasty inside, outside leg kicks, brutalizing the leg of Uriah Faber with them. He has a nasty straight-right hand that comes down the pipe with no tell. He keeps his lead hand low and does a great job of countering while stepping back with a jab or check left hook. He likes to throw inside leg kick, left hook combination. He will stand right in front of his opponent waiting for them to throw shots then try to slip or slide back & counter. He is very diligent about constantly moving his head and faking & feinting as he moves forward to make him hard to hit. He does a great job of waiting until fighters get in range and being ready to explode and go first with a combination. He gets over aggressive when he hurts his opponent sometimes and can get wild and wide with his punches in the pocket and has gotten dropped quite a few times in the UFC. He has a tendency to admire his work at times after he lands & good hit when he should be exiting. He is a very smart, sound fighter, and will stick to a game plan and get the win. He has 4 KO/TKO’s in his career, and his two losses are by KO/TKO, and his chin is questionable.
Rivera is a wrestler who doesn’t use his wrestling much in the UFC. He didn’t attempt any takedowns against Pedro Munhoz, Uriah Faber or in his last fight vs John Dodson. Against Alcantara he only attempted and got one takedown late in round 1. He did show off his wrestling against Thomas Almeida after he was hurt. He only has 5 UFC takedowns. He is fairly explosive & has good double leg entries. He is best at getting double legs when he has opponents backed against the cage. Rivera is very physically strong for 135, short & compact with excellent takedown defense. He has 95% takedown defense in the UFC. He rarely over extends or puts himself in a position to be taken down. Rivera has good cardio & usually brings it.
Cody Stamann
Age: 30
Height: 5’6
Weight: 145
Reach: 64.5”
Gym: Michigan Top Team
From: Michigan
UFC Record: 5-1-1
Fight Matrix: 30
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +115
Cody Stamann is looking to keep the ball rolling following his emotional decision win over Brian Kelleher. Stamann has carved a niche out for himself in the UFC, and with a record of 5-1-1 he is hovering around that title picture. If he can beat Jimmie Rivera, he is probably a top 5 guy, and that’s what Stamann will be trying to prove. Cody Stamann on the feet likes to pressure forward, front level changes & keep fighters off balance. He has decent kicks from the outside, jabs his way into range, and has good defense. Stamann has a nasty left hook inside. He will shoot some nice straight punches to the body and head. He does a good job of feinting a lot to create entries for his striking. He is good at keeping the volume high & touching opponents with a lot of shots. In his last fight, he sat down & was throwing with more power. Stamann stays very tight, has good movement, keeps his guard high and doesn’t get hit much. When he does get hit, Stamann has a great chin. He will eat shots and smile. He isn’t a big power striker but has 6 career KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished via strikes.
Cody Stamann is an awesome wrestler. He is very explosive & sets his shots up with his strikes very well. He will throw a double jab into a double leg takedown. He does a great job of staying in the pocket, landing a couple shots, then slipping, ducking under & getting a double leg. He is good on top and likes to get into side control, posture up & land takedowns. He does a good job of staying connected when opponents try to stand up & immediately mat returning them. He likes to get into 3 quarters mount & land hard hammerfists & punches. He is smart with his positioning and doesn’t go into places where he can get bucked off very much. He will try to take the back & flatten opponents out. He isn’t a big submission threat with just two in his career. He has been submitted one time.
Rivera has been on a skid losing 3 of his last 4, all to top competition though, and Stamann has been looking better than ever. Rivera is going to be the better striker in this match but Stamann should be the guy with the grappling edge if he can get it there against Rivera’s 95% takedown defense. I think this is a very close fight and probably one that is 50/50 for me. I see Rivera landing the harder shots, but I think Stamann is live for takedowns, so those almost even out to me and it comes down to pace and aggression, and I believe those will be about equal. I have no strong lean either way but since I think this is a 50/50 fight that means it is dog or pass so I like whoever is getting the + money in this fight.
I think this should be a good fight and probably pretty fun, but I really am not interested on DraftKings. They are priced in the mid-range, so they could be on the optimal, but I am focused on 5 fights that I need ownership on both sides of and then I have other fighters I would rather target than this fight. I think this fight goes to a decision and I see the winner not even getting 10x. I could be wrong, but I plan on fading this fight for the most part. Stamann is my preferred play though for all formats just because he is cheaper, and he is more likely to look to wrestle. If you have a strong lean either way then using that fighter is fine, but this is a fight I am personally looking to fade so I can focus on the fights and fighters with higher ceilings.
Winner – Cody Stamann via Split Decision
Tim Elliott $8,500 vs Ryan Benoit $7,700
Tim Elliott
Age: 33
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: Glory MMA & Fitness
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 4-9
Fight Matrix: 57
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: -125
Tim Elliott is looking to get right back on the horse following a disappointing performance against Brandon Royval. He gassed out badly & was finished in the second round. I’m kind of surprised Elliott is getting another shot here, following three straight losses & being a 33-year-old flyweight. It’s crazy this fight is the co-main event. Tim Elliott’s striking has really regressed to me. He is much slower with the movement and isn’t quite as fast with age. He was throwing some nice low kicks in his last fight, showed some good pressure and some trademark blitz attacks. Elliott inside will still try to let his hands go but relying on his chin has caught up to him. He almost got knocked out cold in his last match & his hands low style just leaves him available to a lot of punishment. A lot of Elliott’s striking is just to goad opponents to commit so he can level change and get the takedown. Elliott has only three KO/TKO’s, and none since 2011. Elliott has been TKO’d just one time & is very tough.
Tim Elliott is a grinder and going to have the big wrestling advantage here. He hits nice takedown shots off his funky movement & has good takedowns in the clinch. He is a very good scrambler & starts fast. In his last match, he was all over Brandon Royval early, and he tries to take his opponent out on the ground. The front head lock position is not where they want to be with Elliott & that’s where he gets most of his subs. Elliott’s submission defense is very questionable. He was submitted once again in his last match after gassing hard. He just is hard to trust these days.
Ryan Benoit
Age: 30
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 68.5”
Gym: Saekson Janjira Muay Thai
From: Texas
UFC Record: 3-4
Fight Matrix: 70
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +105
Ryan Benoit is still in search of his first UFC win since 2017. He returned after a 2-year layoff last December, losing a split decision to Heili Alateng. Benoit has been trading wins & losses in his UFC career since 2013, so he may be due a win here. Ryan Benoit starts fast & is a very good striker. He has nasty low kicks, good straight punches & pull counters. He will throw some wild overhands, hooks & has a pretty nasty high kick. He is super-fast & is dangerous early on. He looked super sharp in his last fight in the first round. Benoit tends to slow down, become hittable in exchanges and not be as powerful after round one. He is definitely one of the hardest hitters at FLW though & is durable. He has finished eight of his ten wins by KO/TKO.
Ryan Benoit is a former wrestler & will bring it out occasionally. He isn’t a super active wrestler in most matches, but he has decent timing on double legs. He doesn’t have the greatest top control or ground & pound, but he can change it up and throw off opponent’s rhythm. Benoit has had issues with takedown defense throughout his career. He gives up takedowns fairly easily but has gotten better at scrambling to his feet quickly. He did lose his last match by getting held down multiple times in round one. He doesn’t accept being on bottom & has fairly good submission defense. He has been submitted twice earlier in his UFC career. Benoit has just one career submission. Benoit has questionable cardio.
Tim Elliott gassed hard after just one round in his last fight and that was only a month and a half ago. I feel really good about Elliott winning round 1 here as well but who knows what happens after that because he has not had the time to improve his cardio that much and he has said he just wants to go out there and have exciting fights these days. I think Elliott could get a submission in rounds 1 or 2 or just win them with his pace and wrestling. So, if he can make it to the scorecards, I like him to win. I just think Benoit is going to win round 3 if it gets there and he could possibly put Elliott out if he doesn’t have anything left in the tank. There is no value in Benoit at his line though, so this is actually Elliott or pass for me, he is just very hard to trust. I even think the Draw could be in play with Elliott winning rounds 1 and 2 and then Benoit getting a 10-8 round 3.
Elliott is my preferred play here because of his wrestling/grappling and his ceiling when he uses those and wins. When Elliott wins, he scores well. He has to be a guy we are targeting if MMEing but him getting the win is the hard part, especially with his gas tank. I think this is a great matchup for him to get the win and maybe a finish, so I will try to be overweight on him if I can. However, if he doesn’t get the finish, I am not even positive he makes it to the bell and Benoit could get a KO. He is in play as well for that reason, but I won’t have much of him, so this is more so Elliott or pass for me. I don’t think I could trust him in cash games if I was playing but I am not against it because I am picking him to win and I think he has a decent floor as well even if he is knocked out late.
Winner – Tim Elliott via Unanimous Decision
Calvin Kattar $9,100 vs Dan Ige $7,100
Calvin Kattar
Age: 32
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 72”
Gym: Team Sityodtong
From: Massachusetts
UFC Record: 5-2
Fight Matrix: 8
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -300
Calvin Kattar is an extremely sharp boxer. He maintains range extremely well with his punches. He has a nasty jab, one of the best jabs in the UFC. He will double & triple up on the jab and has a great one-two. He has a nice jab, overhand right and a sick left hook. He has a very nice rear uppercut. He will explode into range with quick hook & uppercut combinations. He will rip the body with hooks as well. He will pull counter with his punches very well and is very accurate. When he can find his range, he puts his punches together very well and put opponent’s lights outs. He landed a nasty elbow in his last match that put Jeremy Stephens out cold. He doesn’t throw many kicks, but he will throw the occasional leg kick, and has nice front kicks. He will go to the body & head with them. He has good footwork & is hard to hit. In his fight with Moicano, he struggled with Moicano’s kicks & distance. Kattar is heavy on his lead leg & had it chewed up in that match. Moicano was able to push him back by countering Kattar’s jabs with combinations. Kattar did show better ability to pull his leg back and defend low kicks in recent fights. Kattar is dangerous & has 9 KO/TKO’s, including 3 in the UFC. He is very durable & has never been finished by strikes in his career.
Kattar isn’t a very active grappler, and definitely prefers to box. He doesn’t look to clinch very much, but he will occasionally use well timed takedowns. He has a solid blast double leg and will use it to break the rhythm of a fight. He will shoot when he gets opponents backed against the cage. He isn’t overly dangerous in top position, and I highly doubt he will want to take down Ige. Kattar has very good distance control & footwork, making it hard to get in on his legs to begin with. His takedown defense is actually very good. He will attack with a front choke to counter takedowns, and snap opponents down. He was able to use it to take top position vs Andre Fili. He has fast hips & a nice sprawl. He was taken down by Chris Fishgold one time, but quickly jumped back to his feet. Kattar’s lone finish loss came via submission. Kattar only has 3 submission victories & it would be shocking to see him get one here.
Dan Ige
Age: 28
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 71”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 6-1
Fight Matrix: 10
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: +250
Dan Ige is a solid striker. He likes to slowly plod forward and put pressure on opponents. He cuts the cage off very well. He has a good jab & decent leg kicks. He likes to use the pressure to draw out shots & counter. He has a very nice, counter straight-right hand & left hook. He will counter with left hook, straight-right hand combinations as well. He will try to catch opponents with big, winging hooks & overhands. He will counter with big hook & uppercut combinations. Ige has tightened up his punches in the pocket & throws very tight, short hooks now. His left hook that put down Kevin Aguilar was a thing of beauty. He starts very fast early & can overwhelm people in the beginning by just being ready to fight. If a fighter closes the distance recklessly or stands in front of him, he can crack & that’s where he’s most dangerous. Against fighters with good movement who can land & get out he has issues. Julio Arce was using feints & forward pressure to make Ige go first & then piecing him up on the counter. Ige will wing big shots from way too far out and will just walk into big punches & kicks. Fighters who can stay long, throw straight down the middle & angle are going to give him troubles. Ige does have a strong chin & is a scrappy Hawaiian. He won’t quit in there, and fighters will have to put him out. He proved that once again vs Barboza walking through fire to get the decision victory. Ige did get dropped multiple times in that match & took a lot of damage. He’s never been finished by strikes. He has 3 KO/TKO’s.
Ige is a tremendous grappler; A strong wrestler with a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He has a crushing top game & is a finisher in top position. He has good double legs and good body clinch takedowns. He will elevate on double legs & move directly into side control. His wrestling isn’t the greatest though, and it will be interesting if he can get down the bigger man in Kattar. On top, Ige moves quickly to the mount, and will take the back and land brutal ground & pound. He does a great job of flattening opponents out & has great control. He can get too over aggressive trying to take the back & get reversed. He also can get to high in the guard & get shucked off. Off his back, he will look to get wrist control & look for triangles. He will attack in his guard. He will try to roll for leg locks. He doesn’t do the best at controlling posture & Edson Barboza was able to land some big shots from inside his guard. He is good in the scrambles though, and when both fighters were gassed in round 3 he gutted it out. Ige has been able to hit takedowns & control in all his decision victories in the UFC. Ige has 5 career submissions.
I really wanted to pick Ige here because I think this betting line is a bit wide. -280 (as I type this) give us implied odds of 73.69% and I don’t think I can say Kattar wins this fight that often. He does have the striking edge and the power edge, but Ige has the grappling edge and he isn’t completely outgunned on the feet. If this was a 3-round fight, I think Kattar would be lined in the -150 to -200 range. I do think the extra two rounds do help him a lot here though because I think Ige is much more likely to gas and I would expect Kattar to win rounds 4 and 5. I am going to lean with Kattar as my pick for that reason and he is just the bigger and better striker, but I don’t think there is any value in his betting line and this is dog or pass for me.
This is the 5th fight that I think is close to an all-in fight. If this was only 3-rounds, I wouldn’t be as interested but with 5-rounds the winner should score very well and I am probably all-in for that reason. I think you can stack this fight in cash games as well. Kattar is my preferred play here because I just think it’s a tough task for Ige to win over the course of 5-rounds and Kattar in any win is likely to score well. Ige is very in play as well of course because he is live for a submission or decision win by edging out 3 rounds. At his price, even that is probably going to put him on the optimal unless we get some early KO’s from the cheaper guys. Either way, load up on the guy you like here but I would guess I am going to be around 70/30 in favor of Kattar here.
Winner – Calvin Kattar via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: BigMarleyMMA.com
- Bets are on a 1-5u scale with 1u = $100.
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