BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC Vegas 2 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card in Vegas that will have no fans in attendance due to the pandemic. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a bunch of money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $100k goes to 1st place with $500k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Anthony Ivy $9,000 vs Christian Aguilera $7,200
Anthony Ivy
Age: 30
Height: 6’2
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: Brazilian Top Team Texas
From: Texas
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 126
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -190
Anthony Ivy has had a crazy last couple of weeks. Ivy went from not fighting, or even being in the UFC to stepping up on a couple days’ notice to take on Gerald Meerschaert. That fight ended up not happening, but due to him stepping up last week the UFC has given him a fight on this week’s card. Ivy would have been taking the fight on very short notice and up a weight class, so this fight is a much better opportunity for him. He now will be fighting at his natural weight class of 170, and against another newcomer on short notice. Ivy will be facing 13-6 veteran Christian Aguilera. Ivy has improved a lot. Ivy is a very tough guy with good cardio. On the feet, Ivy is tricky, but not comfortable. He does have decent movement; he’s tall & long. He will throw some jabs & straight punches out there. He has a nice left hook he throws kind of off rhythm. Ivy likes to come forward with multiple punch combinations that he throws full power. It makes him dangerous on the feet, but he’s really doing that just to back fighters up & put them on the ground. Ivy has decent front kicks up the middle. Ivy has a solid high kick he will hide behind punches. He is an athletic guy. Ivy is good when he gets fighter’s backs against the cage throwing in combination. He will fake level changes and throw power shots in close range with good dirty boxing. Ivy reaches a lot on the feet though. In exchanges, he will be out gunned in this matchup. Ivy is very hittable & has been rocked in fights early. He is very tough & has great cardio which helps him survive. He does have five finishes with strikes & has been getting more confident on the feet. He has finished his last three wins with strikes.
Anthony Ivy is a grappler, and that’s what he’s looking to do in the cage. He wants to back guys up, shoot that double leg and get them to the mat. Ivy can shoot from way too far out and be very easy to counter. His takedowns against the cage are good. Ivy doesn’t have the greatest top control, but he can wrestle all day and just breaks guys with takedown attempts. As fights progress, he is better at controlling, taking the back & working from there. Ivy has good ground & pound. Ivy does look weak in the tie-ups at times & can be put on his back himself. He will look for subs off his back, and has an ok knee bar, but he’s not great. He can be controlled, and I could see Aguilera rag dolling him for three rounds. Ivy has four submissions and has been submitted twice. His cardio is top notch & he likely will be the tougher guy in there.
Christian Aguilera
Age: 28
Height: 5’9
Weight: 170
Reach: 71”
Gym: Total MMA Studios
From: California
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 263
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +165
Christian Aguilera, an exciting, regional scene veteran is finally getting his chance on the big stage. He is coming out of Team Oyama, which is a strong gym that has been having success lately. Aguilera has been getting highlight reel KO’s since he went pro in 2013 and is a kill or be killed fighter. Aguilera has nine first round KO’s in thirteen wins. He has been finished in the first round himself by strikes 4 times. Aguilera’s fights usually are over in round one or go to decision. Only one of Aguilera’s fights has been the finished after round one. Aguilera is actually pretty good. He has much more experience against better competitors, and in better promotions. He is a wrestler/boxer. Aguilera on the feet has huge one-shot power. He has a good jab, good forward pressure, and dangerous, short hooks inside. Aguilera will look to counter with hooks and has a vicious uppercut. He comes out very hard & looks to overwhelm and finish guys early with his power. Aguilera does throw some naked kicks that get him countered or taken down. He struggles moving backwards & just is a defensive liability. He relies on his chin & power too much & can get stuck throwing one shot at a time. When fighters push him backward & throw in combination, he is hittable. He has a questionable chin as well. Aguilera has been KO/TKO’d 4 times in the first round. He has 10 KO/TKO’s himself.
Christian Aguilera is a powerhouse, and you can see that in his grappling. Aguilera likes to mix it up especially once he gets out of round one. He has good timing on his double legs, and nice takedowns against the cage. On top, Aguilera is a grinder. He likes to get to half guard or side control, sit in dominant position and ride opponents out. When they try to stand up, he is good at using the wrestling ride position to keep them down. He has pretty decent back takes. He isn’t a submission threat though with zero in his career. Aguilera can get sloppy when trying to pass & get swept. He also can be taken down in the later rounds once he slows down. Off his back, I’ve seen him dominated a couple times. He has decent get-ups against the cage, but against good ground fighters who can pass his guard, he will be in trouble. Aguilera did win his last fight by grinding out a wrestling heavy decision. He has never been submitted either. That will be tested by Ivy if this fight goes to the mat thought. Aguilera is a fighter who can be winning the fight & make a mistake and lose. Overall, he’s a good athlete, big for the division, big KO power, solid grappling, good cardio, and he’s a good fighter. It’s just small lapses in concentration or slight errors that get him finished against the higher level.
Aguilera is kind of a kill or be killed fighter. He comes out looking for the KO early and if he doesn’t get it he usually slows down as the fight goes along. 9 of his wins are 1st round KO wins and he also has 4 1st round KO losses. I think he is the better striker of the two though, so I am going to lean with him as my pick to win this fight. I do think he needs to get it finished in the first half of the fight though because if he doesn’t then Ivy probably takes over and uses his ground game to get a finish of his own.
I like this fight for DraftKings because of the -265 FDGTD line. I agree with Vegas that this probably doesn’t see the scorecards and both guys have a chance at the optimal lineup here. Aguilera is my preferred guy because he is cheaper and if he wins, I think it comes in rounds 1 or 2. He has heavy hands and if he gets a 1st round KO at $7.2k, then you will need him to have any chance of winning. I want shares to that for sure, but I will also get exposure to Ivy as well. If Aguilera doesn’t get the 1st round KO then I think his chances of winning decrease significantly and I think Ivy probably finishes in rounds 2 or 3. He is expensive on DK, so I don’t think he is a must, but I want to target fighters with chances to finish because I personally don’t see a lot on this card. This will be a fight I get in more than half of my lineups and I think the night starts off with a decent score in the curtain jerker.
Winner – Christian Aguilera via 1st round (T)KO
Jordan Griffin $8,900 vs Darrick Minner $7,300
Jordan Griffin
Age: 30
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 74.5”
Gym: Roufusport MMA Academy
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 108
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -155
Jordan Griffin finally picked up his first UFC win in his last outing. He suffered two decision losses in his first two fights but got a nice guillotine in February. Griffin was on his way to losing this fight as well but found the finish & closed the show. This is a rematch of a fight that happened a couple years ago which went down a very similar way. Darrick Minner was dominating the fight prior to getting submitted. Griffin is a southpaw & a good distance striker. Griffin is a fighter who likes to use a lot of lateral movement on the outside & then explode in with combinations. He has a decent jab & a good straight-left hand. He will throw one-twos. He also has a nice jab, overhand left. He is very aggressive & quick at closing the distance. When he can back opponents up against the cage, he will throw wide hooks in combination to close off his opponents exits. In round 3 if he feels the fight is close or opponents are fading, he will put the pressure on & trade. He has nice short hooks & uppercuts that are powerful. He has dangerous kicks. He will throw a one-two to a rear leg body or head kick. If fighters can time his blitzes, they can duck under & get easy takedowns. Griffin has good power & 5 career KO/TKO’s. He has a good chin & is a wild man. He has been KO/TKO’d one time.
Jordan Griffin is an opportunistic grappler, but not a great wrestler. In their first fight & many subsequent fights, Griffin has given up takedowns easily. In his last match, he was in route to losing prior to catching a nasty submission from bottom & finishing the fight. Griffin is going to be taken down by Minner, especially early. Minner was able to dominate Griffin early with his wrestling & grappling. Griffin is tough & hard to finish though. He survives the storm & is always looking for opportunities of his own to finish the match. In the fight with Darrick Minner it went very much the same way. He survived a storm & was able to catch an armbar in a scramble. Griffin does have nine submission victories. He has the better cardio & toughness in this fight as well.
Darrick Minner
Age: 30
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 71”
Gym: Disorderly Conduct
From: Nebraska
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 139
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +135
Darrick Minner is making his return after suffering a setback in his UFC debut. Minner started hot but was ultimately submitted by Grant Dawson in round two. Minner if he can’t get the finish in round one, usually loses. 20 of his 24 wins are first round finishes. Minner is kill or be killed in 35 fights, he’s gone to decision just two times. Minner is a boxer/wrestler who throws bombs. He isn’t overly technical on the feet but has power and commits 100% to his strikes. Minner will wing a clubbing overhand that definitely has power. I have seen him drop opponents with it. Minner will close the distance with wild hooks and uppercuts, but really uses that to get in on the legs. Minner will throw a lot of kicks from the outside; Front kicks up the middle, round kicks to the body and head, and is decent moving in & out. He will sometimes load up with the kicks & can be countered. Minner also will throw lead uppercuts that leave him very exposed. Minner gets really sloppy after round one, and his striking just becomes winging hooks. He will run into punches and make the impact worse. When Minner hurts opponents, he isn’t looking for the finish by strikes, he will go into submission mode. Minner has just one career KO. Minner has been finished by strikes twice, but is very durable, and the times he’s been finished were with ground & pound, but he wasn’t out. He will get hurt but recovers quickly. Minner isn’t a great striker, but he commits & it opens up his wrestling.
Darrick Minner is a strong grappler & is extremely opportunistic and aggressive. He will sacrifice position for submission every time with no regrets. Minner is good at using big punches to set up the entry for his double leg. He has a very nice single also. When he takes opponents down, he is immediately looking to rain down ground & pound and hunting the neck. Minner is good at taking the back & will lock in rear naked chokes in transition which can catch guys by surprise. Minner will dive on front chokes. His guillotine is very slick & he has a ton of guillotine finishes. Minner can sometimes get himself in trouble due to hunting for the sub. He will attack knee bars & get mounted, or dive on a guillotine which puts him on bottom. Minner has decent submission defense but can be subbed. He also will stay in bad positions & turtle up which allows fighters to pound him out. Minner gets sloppy inside opponent’s guards & can get submitted with triangles and armbars. Minner can be taken down himself, and his game off his back is not very good. He doesn’t get-up, and isn’t a huge submission threat off his back, but he did recently get a triangle choke, and will use the guillotine to stand up. Minner has been submitted seven times in his career. His style is boom or bust. He boasts 21 submissions of his own. Minner has grit & heart, but his cardio isn’t the best. He will slow down after round one.
This is a rematch from two years ago when they fought outside of the UFC. In that fight, Minner was winning early and then he was finished towards the end of the 2nd. That is how a lot of his fights tend to go. He comes out of the gates hot and sometimes he finishes, but if he doesn’t, he ends up getting finished himself later in the fight. I think there is a good chance this fight goes the same way. I see him winning round 1 and maybe he finishes there as well, but I think he is live for about half of the fight and if it goes past that point then Griffin probably gets a finish of his own. There is no way I would bet Griffin at these odds, so this is dog or pass for me. I do think Griffin wins this fight more than he loses though so I will take him as my pick to win here.
This is another fight where if the dog wins, you need to have him in your lineups. Minner comes out of the gates real hot and he is looking to win early in every fight. If he does, he breaks the slate this week, if he doesn’t, he probably gets finished himself. Minner is my preferred play here though because he is a guy who can make your night with a win where I could see a finish from Griffin still not hitting 10x his salary. I want some Griffin exposure as well this week because this should be a fast-paced fight and I have him winning, but at his salary he isn’t a must play. I wouldn’t want either side in cash games here, but I do want to be overweight to Minner this week and probably in line with the field or possibly underweight to Griffin.
Winner – Jordan Griffin via 3rd round Submission
Tyson Nam $8,000 vs Zarrukh Adashev $7,700
Tyson Nam
Age: 36
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Sports Lab
From: Oregon
UFC Record: 0-2
Fight Matrix: 67
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -135
Tyson Nam is getting one final chance to get a win in the UFC. Nam has fallen short in his first two UFC outings, getting out struck in both fights. At 36 years old, Nam’s better days are behind him, but he is still a tough out. He was originally scheduled to face UFC veteran Ryan Benoit, but with Benoit pulling out he’s taking on a UFC newcomer. Nam is a pressure fighter on the feet. Nam has a nice jab that he will double and even triple up on to find his range. He will rip the body then go up to the head with hook combinations. Nam has nice body & head kicks as well. He has been pro for 14 years now & isn’t as fast as he once was. Nam likes to load up as well & will throw a couple punch combos, but he isn’t a quick combinations guy with the hands. He is looking to load up & get the one punch knockout. He has even been quoted saying he throws for KO’s. Nam can be low volume though & I feel he has to throw more volume in this fight to win. Nam was basically dominated by Sergio Pettis & Kai Kara-France never getting a beat on them in frustrating performances. Nam is very durable, but he couldn’t get his own damage off much in those. Nam has been finished three times by strikes. Nam has 10 KO/TKO’s. He is the most dangerous in round one as well with 7 KO/TKO’s in round one.
Tyson Nam is a big guy for 125 & will try to bully opponents. He likes to close the distance into the single collar clinch & hit trips or push opponents to the cage & work from there. Nam has very strong takedown defense. He will dig underhooks & disengage. He will land shots on the break that discourage takedown attempts. It’s hard to get in on his hips. Nam has nice body lock takedowns. On top, Nam likes to stand up in opponent’s guards and rain down big shots. Nam is not a submission guy with only one in his career. He has never been submitted. Nam has good cardio & will have a similar pace all three rounds. Nam can get caught looking for one shot & out volumed, due to that he is 7-8 in decisions.
Zarrukh Adashev
Age: 30
Height: 5’5
Weight: 135
Reach: 64.5”
Gym: The White House Jiu-Jitsu
From: Uzbekistan
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +105
Zarrukh Adashev is jumping in here on very short notice to make his UFC debut. Adashev will have only a couple days’ notice. Adashev is 3-1 in MMA, but that record is a bit deceiving. Adashev is an established, veteran kick boxer & former world champion. Adashev has a record of 16-3 in Glory. Adashev lost his MMA debut, but has bounced back with three straight wins in Bellator. Adashev is a slick, southpaw striker who likes to switch stances. Adashev throws a lot of volume. He has nice one-twos & straight punches. He will land the one-two, close the distance and follow with big hooks. He has fluid hands inside. He will come forward with standing elbows. Adashev has solid kicks; Good round kicks and spinning kicks. He has decent power and throws volume inside. He has good hooks and uppercuts. He doesn’t have the one punch power Nam does. He is willing to trade & against Nam I think that’s a bad decision. Zarrukh had 2 KO/TKO’s in three wins.
Zarrukh Adashev’s grappling is improving, but still needs a lot of work. He has been match made well & in his third pro fight he showed off a lot of wrestling. He fought a terrible opponent but was able to land some head and arm throws in the clinch & time some double legs. In top position, Adashev has basically nothing. He is very obvious with his passes and will just lay on fighters. He seems to want to stay tight because he doesn’t want to make mistakes but doesn’t get any damage off. He did attack some armbars and rear naked chokes in his last fight. He looks strong, and he can shuck off or reverse bad takedown or clinch attempts. Adashev in the clinch doesn’t dig underhooks well at all. He is easily controlled & taken down. Off his back, he has nothing. He is also a pretty small fighter. If Nam comes in with a game plan to get body lock takedowns, I think he could get them very easily. Adashev was getting taken down by 0-2 fighters recently. Adashev has been finished by rear naked choke also. Adashev does have good cardio.
Adashev is taking this UFC debut fight on less than a weeks’ notice. He did go 3-0 in Bellator though, so he has some big show experience under his belt and there is no crowd here either so not a bad setting for a short notice debut. Adashev only has a 3-1 MMA record but he has high-level kickboxing experience as well and I think he has a shot here. Nam is probably the more technical and powerful striker here and he has the grappling edge as well, but he doesn’t throw volume and he rarely looks to wrestle. I think this could be a 15-minute striking match and I think Adashev will be the faster fighter throwing more volume, and that could be enough to get him the win here.
I don’t love this fight for DraftKings, but we are getting a slight discount on these guys and I think Adashev is an interesting play at $7.7k. I think he is a better cash game play than any of the GPP underdogs I like this week and maybe a better small tourney option as well because I don’t think he kills us with 10 or less points like the 3 guys I like in GPPs could. I won’t get much of an investment to either side here, but I think Nam is going to be closer to a fade for me where I do see Adashev making my player pool, and I think he is cash game playable as well.
Winner – Zarrukh Adashev via Split Decision
Julia Avila $9,300 vs Gina Mazany $6,900
Julia Avila
Age: 32
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: Oklahoma martial arts
From: Oklahoma
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 11
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -525
Julia Avila will be making her second UFC appearance following her successful UFC debut. Avila took a dominant decision victory & looks like a good prospect. Avila is essentially undefeated, having her one loss come due to a hand injury. Avila was scheduled to fight Karol Rosa, but she has been forced out and replaced by Gina Mazany. Avila is a bit stiff as a striker but is explosive and hits hard. She is extremely aggressive. Avila has a very nice jab, a good straight-right hand & one-two. Avila will close the distance with straight punch combos, and inside hooks. She will close the distance with excellent left hook, straight-right hand combination. She can be explosive with hook combinations & close the distance quickly. She landed a nasty overhand right that rocked Pannie Kinziad in her last match. Avila will mix in some uppercuts & body shots. She will let her hands go in combination when opponents are backed against the cage. Avila will throw some nice leg kicks. She can throw the kicks without setting them up at times & get countered. Avila has nasty front kicks to the body & head. She landed a front kick to the face which led to the finish versus Alexa Connors. Avila is very tough & hits hard. She is willing to eat a shot to give a shot. She dropped Kinziad in a pocket exchange in round 3. Ávila does run into punches at times and can be stiff in the pocket & countered. She doesn’t show a ton of finesse in the way she enters and relies a lot on athleticism & power. Avila has 3 knockouts in 7 wins. Her lone loss was due to a hand injury very early in round one.
Julia Avila is a strong grappler. She is a beast & does a lot of weight lifting training. Ávila loves to fight in the clinch. She spends a lot of time mauling opponents against the fence. She will use straight punch combinations to close the distance into the clinch. She is very strong, digs underhooks well, and attacks with elbows & knees. Avila has excellent takedown defense. In her fight with Kinziad, she showed a heavy sprawl, and quickly circled to the back off a double leg attempt. Kinziad did shake her off the top & landed in full guard, but there was about 5 seconds left in the round. Avila was able to take the back in round 3 also. She has very fast back takes, and great control. Avila has a crushing top game, she was advancing to mount with absolute ease & looked like a boulder in top position vs Pannie. Avila should look to improve her wrestling because I think she has the strength & a sick top game. Avila has a purple belt, but she has just one submission in her career. Julia Avila has great cardio & doesn’t slowdown in fights.
Gina Mazany
Age: 31
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 68.5”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Alaska
UFC Record: 2-3
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +415
Gina Mazany has found her way back in the UFC. Following back to back losses, Mazany was cut, got a win on the regional scene, and now is back. She is jumping in on short notice here & is a big underdog against Julia Avila. Gina Mazany is a tough, rugged chick. On the feet, Mazany is not very good. Mazany will throw one shot attacks and doesn’t really set anything up. She likes to throw front & round kicks to the body. She will throw the round kick high to the head. Mazany has a decent left hook. Inside, Mazany will throw some nice elbows. She likes to blitz forward behind strikes & fall into the clinch. In the clinch, she has some nice knees to the body & legs and is pretty strong. She makes a lot of positional mistakes in the clinch though & can end up getting reversed. Mazany is good at exiting the clinch with strikes. She is very aggressive and starts very fast. She likes to maul opponents & get them out quick. All four of her finishes are in round one. Mazany really isn’t very skilled & uses her physicality to win fights. Mazany is durable, but also very hittable. She has three KO/TKO’s and has been finished by strikes once.
Gina Mazany is a grappler. She isn’t the greatest grappler, but that’s her game in the octagon. Mazany is good at hitting inside or outside leg trips in the clinch. She will come forward behind punches & has a decent double leg against the cage. On top, Mazany isn’t very dangerous at all. She likes to just sit inside opponent’s guards and control position. She can be taken down & was dominated quickly off her back against Sara McMann. Mazany doesn’t have great cardio. She is up against it here.
Mazany is going to need to get this fight to the mat to have any chance here, and I think she would need to win 2 rounds with wrestling because I don’t see her getting a submission. I think Avila is way better on the feet though and she is the better wrestler as well, so I think the striking is what we see take place most of this fight. If Avila doesn’t get the finish, then she probably gets a clear striking win here as long as she stays off her back.
This is going to be Avila or pass for me. She did only have 71 DK points in her UFC debut and if she does that again at $9.3k, she isn’t winning anybody $100k. I do think she has a lot more upside in this fight though and she has a -140 ITD line which is the best on the card. I like her a lot for cash games this week, but I want GPP exposure as well and I will probably try to get overweight to the field since I think most people will make Merab a priority in the top range this week. Mazany is a full fade for me though. She will probably be 5% owned or less, so if you want to use her just for contrarian reasons I think that is OK, but I don’t expect much from her this week.
Winner – Julia Avila via 2nd round (T)KO
Kevin Aguilar $8,400 vs Charles Rosa $7,800
Kevin Aguilar
Age: 31
Height: 5’7
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: Longview MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 96
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -185
Kevin Aguilar has his back against the wall here after suffering back to back losses. His granite chin was finally cracked in his last match, when he got knocked out by Zubaira Tukhugov. He needs to bounce back here & get a win. Kevin Aguilar is a tough, gritty guy with great heart & tight boxing. He is pretty one dimensional though, and not the greatest athlete. Aguilar will use a nice switch kick to the head following his one-two combination but isn’t an active kicker. Aguilar has a nasty jab and one-two. His straight & overhand right have one punch knockout power. Aguilar picks his shots well, he will go to the body and head with hooks and has very nice uppercuts. He loves to be on the inside & will let off punches in bunches. Aguilar is usually very tight with his combinations and doesn’t overextend or open up a lot. In his last match, he ate a shot that dropped him in round one, and I believe wanted to get it back. He was overextending & being wide with his punches. Aguilar priced himself on being able to go to war though. He may be hittable at times, but he wears it & hits like a truck. He took some absolute hammers in his last match & didn’t quit. Aguilar has 11 KO/TKO’s & has been finished twice by strikes himself.
Kevin Aguilar is not going to be looking for takedowns here. He is going to want to keep this fight on the feet & find the kill shot. Aguilar has strong takedown defense, and good get-ups. When he gets up he will attack right away, and that’s imperative in this fight. His opponent needs rest when he gets takedowns, if he doesn’t them he could break. When Aguilar does end up on bottom, he isn’t a fish out of water. Kevin Aguilar was able to threaten Ige on the mat a bit. He was able to keep Ige inside his guard but took some huge shots. He was close on getting an armbar & took top position in a scramble. I do feel Aguilar has good enough Jiu-Jitsu to protect himself vs Rosa & maybe even use subs to get back to his feet. He will attack triangles & the legs. I don’t see him submitting Rosa, but I don’t see Rosa finishing Aguilar on the mat either. Aguilar isn’t going to be looking for takedowns in this fight, but when he gets on top he likes to rain down terror. He will land nasty elbows & punches and look to finish the fight. Aguilar isn’t looking to submit opponents, with just one in his career. He likely has the cardio edge here & needs to push the pace.
Charles Rosa
Age: 33
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 69”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Florida
UFC Record: 3-4
Fight Matrix: 174
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +160
Charles Rosa is looking to get back on the horse following a terrible performance a month ago. Rosa was dominated from pillar to post by Bryce Mitchell and wants to get that bad taste out of his mouth. Rosa is a karate striker on the feet. He has a wide stance & moves in & out very quickly. Rosa is constantly switching stances & giving different looks. Rosa has nice inside, outside low kicks. He will throw oblique kicks to the legs. Rosa will throw outside low kicks to round kicks to the body, along with front leg sidekicks to the body. Rosa has a good one-two, and a very nice straight-left & right hand. He will switch stances after he lands the straight usually. Rosa is very fast closing the distance due to his karate style. Rosa will throw a nice left hook, overhand right combination. He can get wild with his punches at times, duck his head, and enter range with his hands down. He will wing overhands & hooks in the pocket with power, but it also leaves him susceptible to counters. Rosa has some nice spinning kicks both to the body & head. He will throw some jumping round house kicks & spinning backfists. Rosa is good when he is going backwards using movement & controlling distance with his counters. If fighters can cut him off & force him to box or catch him with counters as he enters he struggles. He doesn’t have good boxing in close range and gets very wild & hittable. Rosa doesn’t throw with a ton of power, and he can struggle to back fighters up with his counters. Shane Burgos struggled early on with the movement, but Burgos started just taking shots to give shots & took him out. Rosa got caught in an exchange & then taken out with a flurry of punches. The ref stopped the fight with Rosa still standing, and he protested immediately. Rosa is very tough with a great chin. That was the only time he’s been finished in his career. Rosa has just two KO/TKO’s & isn’t a power striker.
Charles Rosa got thoroughly out grappled in his last match. He was taken down with ease & showed a lot of bad fight IQ. Rosa was throwing weak, naked kicks that got him taken down in multiple rounds. Rosa is solid off his back. He has a tricky full guard, but he allowed Bryce Mitchell to transition all over him, and attack a ton of submissions. Rosa was tough & stuck it out, but it wasn’t a good look. Rosa doesn’t have the greatest wrestling, but he can be relentless & chain many together. In top position, he likes to just ride fighters out. He does have a strong front head kick & submissions from there. Rosa has 8 submissions in his career. He has never been submitted.
Rosa is coming off a total domination loss just a month ago, so I am not sure what that does to his confidence here. He is the better grappler in this fight, though, so I am sure he is looking to get that bad taste out of his mouth with this quick turnaround. I like Aguilar on the feet though and I think he has the takedown defense to keep this standing the majority of the fight. I don’t know that I am as confident in Aguilar as Vegas is, but I do give him the slight edge and he will be my pick here.
I think this is going to be a fade fight for me. I probably won’t make a ton of lineups this week so with 20 or less lineups, I think I want to fade this one. If I was making 150 then I would take shots on both sides here, but I think a finish needs to happen for either of these guys to score well. I don’t want to bank much on that happening, so I will just hope for a low scoring decision and I think Aguilar is the guy who gets it. I think the best way I would use this fight on DK is probably Aguilar in cash games, but even fading there is fine as well IMO.
Winner – Kevin Aguilar via Unanimous Decision
Mariya Agapova $8,700 vs Hannah Cifers $7,500
Mariya Agapova
Age: 23
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 70”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Kazakhstan
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 27
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -235
Mariya Agapova is set to make her UFC debut & her return to Las Vegas. Unfortunately, she was unsuccessful in her first fight at the Apex on the contender series, but she has a chance at redemption here. Agapova has showed major improvements in her last two fights. She has moved to the United States, trains at American Top Team & I feel she has a lot of potential. Agapova is coming off back to back first round finishes & she is a finisher which is rare for women’s MMA. She loves the fight & you can tell she is in her element in there. The first thing you notice when you watch Agapova’s Invicta fights in comparison to her DWCS, is the muscle she’s put on. She has filled out a lot & looks much stronger. Agapova has a great frame for the division. She is tall at 5’8, has a long reach, but also now has packed on size. Agapova is also a lot less choppy with her footwork. She is cleaner with her in & out movement and her head movement. Agapova has a really nice one-two, jab, and overhand rights. She is getting better with her hands, throwing straighter and less loopy strikes. Mashka will throw a lot of kicks as well; Nice low kicks, good front & sidekicks to the body. She has super heavy round kicks. Her rear body kicks are vicious. Agapova will throw some naked kicks that can get her countered or taken down. Agapova will throw some superman punches & elbows. She is open with her striking, and wild but getting more refined. Agapova is getting harder to hit but is still willing to engage in brawls. In her last match, which was a fun, high paced fight, she exchanged some wild hooks with Marilla Santos who is another power hitter. Agapova fights with no fear in there & lets it all go. She has great forward pressure & a lot of volume. When she hurts an opponent, she will swarm and finish. Agapova has a great chin as well and is willing to eat shots. She is a fun fighter to watch. Agapova has finished three fights by strikes.
Mariya Agapova is improving as a grappler. On the contender series, she was taken down & grinded out. Since then she has gone to a good camp in American Top Team and has been training with coaches like King Mo, and partners like Gillian Robertson. Agapova is not a very active seeker of the takedown. She is getting better with her defensive grappling, but I still think she will struggle with elite wrestlers. Agapova can be controlled in the clinch, but she is improving with getting her back off the cage. She can be taken down as well, but her takedown defense is above average. Off her back, she is actually effective with armbars. She will look for triangle chokes as well. Agapova wasn’t able to stand up effectively & continuously gave her back in her fight with Tracy Cortez. She did show heart getting up in the third and going for it at the tail end of the fight. In Agapova’s last match, her opponent pulled guard and it was a big mistake. On top, Agapova is nasty. She rains down big hammerfists and punches and has heavy elbows. In her last fight, she finished off Murilla Santos with a barrage of heavy elbows. Agapova was threatened with a couple armbars but postured out of them pretty easily. Marilla Chocolate is a brown belt in Jiu-Jitsu, so she isn’t a slouch on the mat. Agapova had a really nice back take against Alexa Conners, jumping on her back from standing after hurting her & choking her out. When she can get the back, she is good at finishing. Agapova has three submissions. She has finished six of eight of her wins. Agapova is very dangerous in round one with five first round finishes. Her cardio is good, in my opinion. Agapova is a dangerous new addition to the division.
Hannah Cifers
Age: 27
Height: 5’1
Weight: 125
Reach: 62”
Gym: Embrace Martial Arts
From: North Carolina
UFC Record: 2-3
Fight Matrix: 61
Last Fought: 2 Weeks
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +195
Hannah Cifers is making a very quick return after losing to Makenzie Dern a couple weeks ago. Cifers was finished with a leg lock. She is one of the smallest girls in the UFC, and now is moving up a weight class to 125 lbs & taking on a huge FLW. Cifers is a striker. She is a smaller girl at 5’2 & her footwork is not very good. I think in this fight that could be an issue for her. Cifers does crack & has big power in her overhand right. Cifers is good at landing that overhand right as opponents enter range. Cifers will attack to the body and head with combinations. She will throw straight punch combos to the body and head and has a nice right hook to the body. Cifers does a good job of coming forward, throwing hooks & overhands while ducking & rolling. Cifers will throw occasional leg kicks, but they don’t seem very powerful. She has a solid rear leg body kick. Cifers is very hittable herself & she throws with full power overextending herself. I expect Agapova to be able to pick her apart if this fight stays on the outside. Cifers struggled with the kicks of Polyana Viana especially to the body. Cifers is a very tough chick & has a lot of heart. She has been finished by strikes just once vs Maycee Barber.
Hannah Cifers is not an active grappler in fights. She is very strong in the clinch & has short range power. She will throw short hooks, uppercuts & has pretty fast hands. Cifers isn’t a wrestler & has just one UFC takedown. In top position, she doesn’t do very much. She holds position & stays tight, but her ground & pound isn’t super dangerous & she isn’t a big submission threat on top. Cifers was taken down three times in her match with Jodie Esquibel. Cifers struggled with the timing of Jodie’s double legs. Cifers is active off her back with armbars, triangles & omaplatas. Cifers will look for leg locks. She was able to shut down Jodie Esquibel’s top game with her guard. Cifers isn’t going to have to worry about a double leg more than likely in this fight. In Cifers last match, she looked strong early, but when going for hammerfists got caught in a leg lock. Cifers is yet to earn a submission victory in her MMA career. She has been submitted once herself.
Cifers is really just a striker and she is coming off back to back losses where she was finished on the ground. I think this fight will be close on the feet, but I see Agapova having a big edge once this fight hits the mat and she could get a submission or ground and pound TKO finish if she gets it there.
Agapova is my preferred play here because she has the finishing upside. We know Cifers isn’t great on the ground and if Agapova gets it there she can finish and score well. I think she needs the finish to be on the $100k lineup though and she is only +200 ITD so I wouldn’t want to invest a lot in that happening. I think she is one of the better cash game plays on the slate though and we don’t care as much about her ceiling in those games where we only need to beat half the field. Cifers is going to be a fade for me with limited lineups, but she does have power and she will be low owned, so if you want to take a shot and hope to luck into $100k with her, that is fine, I just won’t be on that play with Minner and Aguilera being cheaper.
Winner – Mariya Agapova via 3rd round Submission
Jordan Espinosa $8,500 vs Mark De La Rosa $7,700
Jordan Espinosa
Age: 30
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: Luttrell’s MMA
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 31
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -160
Jordan Espinosa is looking to get off the snide following a two-fight losing streak. This is a loser leaves town match. Espinosa is 1-2 in the UFC, while De La Rosa is riding a three-fight losing streak. This fight will be up at 135 lbs where Espinosa has not been good. He holds a record of 4-5 at 135 lbs. Espinosa is super-fast & explosive. He has a hands down style & likes to dart in & out with blitz attacks. He tends to fight moving backwards a lot but works behind the jab & makes opponents pay with counters. Espinosa has a really nice, heavy jab. He will throw nice leg kicks. Espinosa has good drive by straight-right hands. He will throw tight one-twos. He does have a nice check left hook going backwards & dropped his opponent on the DWCS with it. He will throw powerful body & head kicks. His head kicks come very fast, he had a nice head kick knockout of Nick Urso on the DWCS. He will throw the head kick after his one-twos. When he can’t get the fight to the mat and is being out struck he can panic a bit. He can start to shoot takedowns from too far outside & flop to his back. He doesn’t have much boxing at all & really is trying to be all the way out until he can enter with a long punch, kick or takedown. He is improving with his pull countering ability & being more confident in the pocket. He is very fast & will slip & counter with straight punches. The issue with his defense is he tends to lean back when he throws punches & doesn’t have his hands up. This leads to him getting hit flush on the chin at times. Espinosa also will dart in with his hands low, eating shots that way occasionally as well. Espinosa is hard to hit when he’s going backwards though due to his speed. I have seen him wobbled & rocked in fights, but he recovers well. He has two career KO/TKO’s & has never been finished with strikes.
Jordan Espinosa is a former wrestler with some Jiu-Jitsu skills. He doesn’t tend to work in the clinch much, but he has nasty knees to the body. He is explosive & has good double leg takedowns. He will dig an underhook & and land a trip takedown or drop down for a double. He will shoot single legs as well. On top, he has decent ground & pound elbows, but is mainly look for submissions. He has very good guard passes & will athletically jump from guard to side control. He is very fast in the scrambles & floats well on top as opponents move on bottom. When opponents try to belly down & stand up, that’s where he is most dangerous working his front head lock series. He has seven submission wins. Espinosa’s submission defense is not good. He has been submitted in his last two fights & four times overall.
Mark De La Rosa
Age: 25
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 65”
Gym: Genesis BJJ
From: Texas
UFC Record: 2-4
Fight Matrix: 68
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: +140
Mark De La Rosa has lost three consecutive fights in a row and needs a win badly. He is 2-4 in the UFC. De La Rosa was also knocked out badly in his last fight. He is a forward pressure striker with good boxing skills. De la Rosa will throw heavy lead & counter left hooks. He will throw a left hook, right uppercut combination. He has nice, hard hooks in combination in close range. He has fast hands & will unload with hooks & uppercuts to close the distance. He is good at constantly walking fighters down & being able to slip and counter with punches as he does. He has nice low calf kicks and hard body kicks. He will throw the occasional head kick. He is flat footed & doesn’t move his head. He can get hit with some nice shots coming in, but he has a good chin. He isn’t the greatest athlete & I feel will struggle vs faster, more explosive strikers on the feet. His constant forward pressure & leg kicks do wear opponents out. He does have some pop in his hands, but not KO power. He is someone who will wear on fighters over the course of 3 rounds. He has one TKO. He is very hittable & is durable but got knocked out badly his last match for the first time.
Mark De La Rosa is very physical, especially for 125 lbs. He tries to use his boxing to push fighters towards the cage & then get inside where he can get the takedown. He will try to grab double underhooks or the plum clinch. He has good clinch takedowns off the cage. De La Rosa is very good at punching his way into takedowns & blending. He has a nice high crotch single which he uses to transition to the back. He has good, reactive double legs. On top, he is heavy & has nice elbows. He has good guard passes & a great back take. He has great control on the back & is good at locking the body triangle in and getting the RNC. He can be taken down, but he has good defense and scrambling ability as well as having a solid guard. He has very fast hips and will throw up triangles and armbars. De La Rosa has six submission victories in his career. He has been submitted one-time vs Tim Elliott. De la Rosa has good cardio and will continue to come forward & go for the win for three rounds.
This is probably a loser leaves town matchup. I give the striking and wrestling edge to Espinosa here, but I give the grappling edge to De La Rosa. I think Espinosa should look to keep this standing and if he can do that I think he wins a clear decision. I think De La Rosa is very live if this fight hits the mat though and I thought about picking him by Rear Naked Choke here. I just have a hard time seeing him get the fight to the mat and I am not a believer in his striking at all. Espinosa is my pick here, but I wouldn’t bet him at this line.
Espinosa is my preferred play here, but I don’t have much interest in this fight. De La Rosa is going to be a fade for me because he needs a submission to score well and I don’t like his chances of getting the fight to the mat. Espinosa is more interesting to me and he probably makes my player pool, but he won’t be a guy I start any lineups with and more so a guy who could make my 6th spot if I have the salary remaining. Espinosa in cash games is fine as well IMO but I don’t think I will be playing cash myself and if I was, I don’t think I would be using him.
Winner – Jordan Espinosa via Unanimous Decision
Andre Fili $8,600 vs Charles Jourdain $7,600
Andre Fili
Age: 29
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 74”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: California
UFC Record: 8-6
Fight Matrix: 29
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -225
Andre Fili will be looking to rebound following a close decision loss to Sodiq Yusuff. Fili once again fell short in the big fight & just seems to not quite be able to get over the hump. Fili is still a very dangerous and tough out and has always come back strong after a loss. Fili has never lost two in a row in his career. Andre Fili is a rangy striker. He has a nice jab & a good straight-right hand. He will throw hard inside leg kicks, body kicks, & head kicks. He will fake the jab & throw an overhand right. He is good at darting in with a straight punch & angling off immediately. He is always trying to walk opponents into straight punches. He will throw a jab, uppercut combination. Fili has a nasty high kick that he puts fighters out with. His block & returns were excellent in his last match & he showed super sharp, fast counters. He has fairly good movement, but he isn’t the most athletic fighter and opponents can cut him off. He isn’t the fastest with his hand speed & opponents can counter with straight punches. Fili is still durable & will eat shots no problem. He Is dangerous with kicks himself and has 8 KO/TKO finishes. He has been KO/TKO’d twice in his career.
Andre Fili is improving as a grappler, and actually has a really nice double leg. He has great timing on it & explodes in quickly. He doesn’t have the best control on top, but he will try to jump on the back when opponents try to stand up. He is long & it gives him an advantage in the clinch. He will land nice knees to the head & body and is very hard to take down. He does a good job of framing and throwing knees to the body. On top, he isn’t great, he just really holds position. His takedown defense has looked very good recently, he stuffed all of Denis Bermudez’s takedowns. He was able to jump on Michael Johnson’s back and almost lock in a rear naked choke. He isn’t a big submission threat with just 3 in his career. He has been submitted twice himself. Fili has solid cardio & will push through fatigue to get the win.
Charles Jourdain
Age: 24
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 69”
Gym: Academie Pro Star MMA
From: Canada
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 66
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +185
Charles Jourdain took care of business as a big underdog against Doo Ho Choi. Jourdain was a 3-1 underdog and won the fight which made me happy because I predicted it & won money off it. He survived a rough first round to get a KO in the second in a wild back & forth fight. Jourdain is a young, athletic, flashy striker who has a lot of room to grow and get better. At 24 years old we should see him improving every time out. Jourdain is a very good, athletic, range striker. He has heavy low kicks. Jourdain has a decent jab, but his lunging straight-right hand is very nice. He will throw a nice right hook to the body to a right hook to the head. He will also throw a right hook to the body to a left hook to the head or a right hook to the body to a head kick. He has a decent overhand right. He will mix spinning backfists into his combinations & is very fast closing the distance. He has good flying knees. He will definitely push the pace & try to wear opponents down with body shots. He is tough & doesn’t break, he will continue to look for the finish until the last minute of the fight. He has good power & 7 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Charles Jourdain has improved his grappling immensely. A couple years ago he was getting taken down & held down for five consecutive rounds in a title fight. In 2019 he is stuffing multiple takedowns, as well as constantly standing up from bottom against a D-1 wrestler. The fight with Desmond Green was also up a weight class at 155 lbs. Jourdain has shown poor takedown defense against double & single legs. He looks to be constantly working on his grappling but doesn’t use it offensively yet. He does have good front chokes he will use to counter takedown attempts. He has 3 career submissions & has never been finished. Jourdain showed great ferocity & cardio in his last fight really attacking hard until the final bell.
This should be a fun fight and probably closer than the odds indicate. I think Fili has the more technical striking with better footwork, and he has the grappling edge as well. Jourdain probably has more power though and he is a pretty high-volume striker, so he can definitely keep this close on the feet and possibly get a KO. I do think Fili should be favored here though because of his grappling, but if I knew this would stay standing I would have to take a shot on Jourdain at this line. I am going to pick Fili here, but this is a dog or pass fight for me at over 2-1 odds.
This is a fight I will get a decent amount of exposure to. Jourdain is in play because he is cheap, has finishing power, and strikes at a solid pace. If he wins, I think he has a good chance of being on the nuts. Fili is good on the feet as well and he could finish there too, but his ground game is what I like in this fight and he could rack up takedowns and advance points. I do think both guys have 100+ point upside here so I want exposure to both sides. I think my 3 favorite underdogs with a ceiling this week are Aguilera, Minner, and Jourdain. I don’t have any of them winning, but I think if any of them do get their hand raised this week they will be on the optimal lineup. That is what I like about those guys and I want to be overweight to them all. Fili is solid in all formats though and I think he does get over 10x in a win here and I wouldn’t mind being overweight to him either.
Winner – Andre Fili via Unanimous Decision
Merab Dvalishvili $9,200 vs Ray Borg $7,000
Merab Dvalishvili
Age: 29
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Serra Longo Fight Team
From: Georgia
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 21
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -420
Merab Dvalishvili is a beast on the feet. He is a little wild, but he throws with big power & is very fast. He has a good jab & nice one-two. He will throw a jab, uppercut & his uppercut is hard to see coming due to his constant wrestling threat. He dropped Ricky Simon with an uppercut. He has a nice left hook in close range. He will throw hard hooks in combination in close range. He has nice kicks; he throws good leg kicks, nice front kicks to the body and will go up top as well. He will throw a lot of spinning attacks. He has a spinning backfist KO in his career and will throw spinning heel kicks as well. He has good superman punches. He is very fast in and out and I think his opponents are surprised at his speed and pace he can keep. He isn’t the most technical fighter on the feet, and he is available to be hit, but he usually is the one controlling the center of the cage and throwing first. He can throw leg kicks without setting them up at times & return his hands slow in the pocket. He needs to be careful not to get hit clean with a kick or straight shot from Borg. When he is going forwards, he is usually winning. When he gets a fighter backing up he will put heavy pressure on his opponent & swarm. Merab has two knockouts & has never been finished.
Merab is a great wrestler and is very strong in the clinch. He has great doubles and single legs, and he drives through and gets takedowns with force. He has a strong body lock and will get a lock around the waist, circle to the back and suplex opponents or just drag them to the mat. He catches kicks and gets takedowns as well, and he can continue to take them down over and over without slowing down. He is excellent & staying connected when opponents stand up, and mat returning them. He will try to jump on the back from that position as well and can sometimes get a little too overzealous & get shucked off. He has gotten 10+ takedowns in 4 of his 5 UFC fights. He has been able to takedown former college wrestlers with ease. Obviously, he has proven that he has the cardio to get continuous takedowns even if he can’t cement position. In his matches against Terrion Ware & Brad Katona, he was able to keep top position & beat them up with big elbows from full & half guard. Merab has calmed down a bit in the cage. Instead of going for low risks back takes and giving up top position, he is staying heavy & just winning the fight. He in my opinion knocked himself out off a takedown against Ricky Simon and was rolled over into a guillotine. It was a very weird and controversial finish as he never tapped, but they gave Simon the technical submission victory. His takedown defense is very good & he denies them easily. When he was taken down by Simon, he was able to stand back up quickly. Merab has one submission victory & has only been submitted once. He is more of a grinder & wins via decision.
Ray Borg
Age: 26
Height: 5’4
Weight: 135
Reach: 63”
Gym: Fit NHB
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 7-5
Fight Matrix: 36
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +335
Ray Borg is a very fast, explosive athlete, and an elite wrestler. His striking has gotten a lot better. His hands looked much better his last fight. He was fast, fluid and was throwing in combination & letting them go. He relies on a lot of blitzes. He likes to throw overhand right, straight-left combinations. He has a nice check left hook. He has a very nice lead uppercut & is very fast. He will throw a left hook to a leg kick combination. He does a great job of faking single legs & throwing uppercuts or faking double legs and throwing overhand rights. Borg only has career TKO but does pack some power in his punches. He has a good chin & is a tough fighter who won’t be easy to put away.
Ray Borg is an elite wrestler. He is very explosive & has great double legs. He is very fast closing the distance & sets his shots up very well with his strikes. He has nice single leg shots & good chain wrestling. He will get in on a single leg, take the back standing & land a suplex. He will also get in on a double transition to a body lock & dump opponents. He will look to hold opponents against the fence & search for singles & doubles. He landed multiple slam double legs in his last match and looked to jump on the back. On top, he is excellent. He throws a large volume of ground & pound is always looking to move to dominant positions. He has heavy elbows on top & can cut opponents. He has a great mount & is always looking to take the back. He is very good at taking the back as opponents stand up. He will attack with guillotines & darces & then quickly scramble to take the back. He is very good in scrambles & almost always ends up in top position. He has good arm triangles & rear naked chokes. In his fights with Ricky Simon and Casey Kenney, he was controlled & taken down himself. He will attack with omaplatas and armbars off his back to create scrambles. He did get his guard passed vs Simon & was largely dominated. It’s more of a size thing at 135 lbs. He has proven he can hang on the ground with elite fighters on the mat & win such as Jussier Formiga. He looked in much better shape to me at 125 lbs. He has 6 career submissions, and has been submitted one time.
I like Merab here. He is the much higher paced fighter and the better wrestler, so I don’t see Borg having success with takedowns himself which is where he excels. Borg showed decent hands his last fight, but he doesn’t throw them enough to make me think he has any shot on the feet either, so I think Borg needs a back take, a guillotine, or a reversal to work his way to a submission. If he doesn’t get it, Merab wins.
Merab is the best play on the card this week and a lock for cash games. Merab is great for DraftKings with his pace and chain takedowns. He has 39 takedowns in 5 UFC fights and he has never scored less than 92 DK points in a win. He even scored 79 and 71 in his two UFC losses. He is going to be my highest owned fighter this week, but he is going to be everyone’s highest owned fighter and he will be over 50% this week. I could see a scenario where he just wins this fight on the feet with a clear 30-27 because of the volume he throws and if you want to fade ownership and hope for that, then that is fine with just a few lineups. We can’t fade Merab completely if MMEing though and for me I think he will be in 70% or more of my lineups because I see him winning this fight everywhere and if he wants takedowns he should get them. I don’t have any interest in Borg though other than for hedge lineups just because I’ll have so much Merab. But even with 20 lineups, I wouldn’t have more than 1 Borg lineup so purely a hedge play for me.
Winner – Merab Dvalishvili via Unanimous Decision
Marvin Vettori $8,800 vs Karl Roberson $7,400
Marvin Vettori
Age: 26
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Italy
UFC Record: 4-2-1
Fight Matrix: 34
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -230
Martin Vettori is a southpaw, forward pressure striker. He is very durable and willing to take a shot to give one and has good head movement. He is explosive & good at touching opponents with his jab to create combinations. He will double, and even triple up on the jab. He will use the jab to start straight punch flurries. He will close the distance with 5-10 punch combinations. In close range, he has nice hooks & uppercuts. He has good head movement & slips & rips in the pocket well. He is very good at returning after getting hit in the pocket. He is extremely durable & if opponents exchange, he will usually be the winner of it. Vettori doesn’t throw many kicks, but he has very dangerous head kicks. He isn’t overly technical with his striking, but he just doesn’t give opponents a chance to breath. He is constantly walking opponents down & making them go backwards. When he lands, he is coming forward with more than one & forcing them to be on the defensive. If fighters try to get in the clinch or on the inside, he will let his hands go & throw punches in bunches and is willing to trade. Very technical opponents who are able to time his entries as he crashes the distance may be able to finesse him. Israel Adesanya was able to hit Vettori with some well-timed counters as he tried to come forward & made him much more gun shy. Vettori also took some pretty heavy leg kicks against Cezar Ferreira. Vettori has enough power to keep opponents honest, but not fight ending power. He is definitely a volume guy. Vettori has just two career KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished in his career.
Vettori is well-rounded & really showed off his grappling in his last match. Vettori has good single & double leg takedowns. He has good timing on the shots & catches kicks well. His cardio is top notch & when opponents stand up he is right back on them. In the clinch, he will attack with nice knees, short hooks & uppercuts. He has close range power. In top position, he has great control & will pass to dominant positions. He likes to throw some short elbows, hammerfists & looks to move to side control or full mount. He was able to control Israel Adesanya from side control for a couple minutes, and mount Cezar Ferreira. He has good back takes & will look to lock in rear naked chokes. His takedown defense is very good. He has good balance & digs double underhooks well. He was able to defend the vaunted double leg of Ferreira, dig the underhooks & put his back against the cage. He has fought high level BJJ fighters like Antonio Carlos Junior & held his own in the grappling. He will also counter takedown attempts with kimuras. If he is taken down, he is hard to hold down & will attack off his back. He will look for sweeps & submissions from inside his guard. Vettori has 8 submission victories. He hasn’t had a finish since his UFC debut where he got a guillotine. That is his lone UFC finish. Vettori has fought some high-level opponents and is quietly building a solid resume.
Karl Roberson
Age: 29
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: Killer B Combat Sports
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 43
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +190
Karl Roberson is the better striker in this matchup. He cuts the cage off very well, has very fast hands and straight shots down the barrel. He has a sick jab, very nice straight punch counters and heavy low kicks. He is very fast & has a nice straight-left hand. He has a nasty counter right hook. His straight-left hand keeps opponents at bay & and he’s able to potshot fighters from the outside. He has a great chin, walks opponents down, and picks his shots well. He doesn’t open up much or give opponents big openings to land shots. In his last match, Roberson smashed the lead leg of his opponent, and then finished him in round three. Roberson has very heavy round kicks to the body and head also. Roberson has 2 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished with strikes.
Karl Roberson is going to need to stay off his back in this matchup. Roberson is improving his grappling immensely. He uses well timed double legs & shows a lot of strength & explosion getting easy slams right into side control. On top, he has good ground & pound elbows and transitions to mount landing shots there as well. He has good top control. He has shown to be very dangerous in the clinch. He has wicked knees to the body & head, and nasty elbows. He finished Ryan Spann in less than a minute with Travis Browne elbows while defending the takedown. Against Glover Teixeira, he hurt him with the same elbows very badly, but couldn’t finish Glover. He was also able to take the back & submit Darren Stewart, so he has shown some ability on the ground. He still needs work off his back. He has been on his back three times in the UFC, twice he was finished via arm triangle. Both of those matches where against black belts. In his last match with Wellington Turman, he showed very poor IQ. He grappled with Turman, put himself in bad positions & made the fight much closer than it needed to be. In this fight, he won’t have to worry about many takedowns in my opinion. Roberson has 3 submissions & been submitted two times.
This is a fun fight and I think it should be a close one. I do think Vettori is the more well-rounded fighter here and probably has a slight edge on the feet and the mat. I do think Roberson might have more power though and he is a solid striker and decent wrestler himself. I think the line looks about right on this one and I think Vettori wins this fight more times than he loses it.
This is a tough one for me. Both guys are playable because either could finish, and if they finish round 1 or 2 then we probably need them. I don’t see either guy scoring well in a decision win though and I think if we knew it would go all 3 rounds it would Roberson or pass. I don’t even think he would 10x in a decision win, but he is cheaper and if most favorites win then it could pave a path to him being on the optimal with a decision win. This is the co-main event though and I think ownership will come along with that so that makes me like this fight less because I think the most likely outcome here is that Vettori wins a decision and probably scores in the 70’s. I haven’t made lineups yet but I am guessing I go underweight to this fight as whole. I won’t fade either side completely, but I do want to get my leverage elsewhere, so I will probably be 20% or less on both sides here.
Winner – Marvin Vettori via Unanimous Decision
Jessica Eye $8,300 vs Cynthia Calvillo $7,900
Jessica Eye
Age: 33
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 66”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Ohio
UFC Record: 5-6-1
Fight Matrix: 3
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -110
Jessica Eye is a boxer with good hand speed. She has a nice jab, and good straight-right hand. She does a good job of using a lead left hook to a right straight combo. She has a good overhand right, left body kick combination. She likes to catch fighters as they close distance with the right hand. In her last fight, she was trying to use a high guard, head movement & hooks to get in the pocket. She will throw decent outside leg kicks, and body kicks. She will go high with her rear kick and use front kicks to the body and face. She isn’t as fluid with her kicking game and is much more of a puncher. She doesn’t have big power, and just 3 TKO’s in her career.
Jessica Eye has tried to round out her game, and even competed against the likes of Meisha Tate in a Jiu-Jitsu competition. She has decent double legs and will try to get body locks in the clinch. Katlyn Chookagian was able to easily defend her takedowns, and reverse the position, but her takedowns were effective against Jessica Rose Clark. She will throw heavy elbows, and search for submissions on top also. She has good back takes and will go for rear naked chokes. She also likes to attack with leg locks and will use the 50-50 position to get on top. Eye was taken down in her last match but got up quickly. Eye will have the experience & cardio advantage in this one if her head is on straight.
Cynthia Calvillo
Age: 32
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach:
Gym: AKA
From: California
UFC Record: 5-1-1
Fight Matrix: 8(SW)
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: 1Draw
Betting Odds: -110
Cynthia Calvillo will be making the move up to 125 lbs for the first time in the UFC. She is a grappler with average striking. Calvillo has alright movement and tries to work behind a jab and her straight-right hand. She does a decent job of countering with her right hand and moving her head off center line. She has a nice check left hook in the pocket. She will throw occasional leg kicks, but she is not much of a kicker. She tends to get flat footed when she tries to throw combinations, and will stand right in front of opponents, and get hit. She was able to take the shots of a powerful girl in her last match & has fought multiple fighters who are now at 125. She is a tough girl and has a good chin. She has two TKO’s in her career, and never has been finished.
Calvillo is a great BJJ practitioner, and very dangerous on the ground. She is amazing in scrambles and her flexibility makes her able to end up in dominant positions. She isn’t a great wrestler, or even a very active seeker of the takedown, but she definitely will need to be in this matchup. She did have a nice duck under off an Esparza overhand and was able to get a nice double leg takedown. She will try to get the single collar tie, and then shoot takedown from there, but overall, she isn’t a great wrestler. On top, she is strong, but if fighters are safe, she seems to not be extremely active. She likes to use small ground and pound, and make opponents make a move where she can scramble to a dominant position. Her takedown defense is not great, but off her back is where she is most dangerous. She has very dexterous legs, and she’s able to use them to offset balance and create scrambles where she can take the back, or lock in a choke. She has great back takes, showing that with a slick submission over Amanda Cooper. She also has nice triangles, armbars and works quickly on the mat for the submission. She has two rear naked chokes in her career. She has good cardio and can go hard for three rounds.
Neither of these fighters have gone 5-rounds before so this will be the first for both of them, but I doubt cardio really comes into play. I think Eye is the better boxer and I’d give Calvillo the wrestling/grappling edge. I do think Calvillo can hang on the feet too though because of her pace and aggressiveness, but I do think she should look for takedowns. If she can get them, she could lock up a sub or just use them to steal close rounds, but I give the slight edge to Calvillo in this fight for that reason.
On DraftKings, this is not an all-in main event for me. I do think the winner probably gets 10x, but I don’t see 100+ upside for either of them and if they only get 85 or less in a win, that might kick them off the $100k lineup. I still want a decent amount of exposure to this fight, but my preferred play is Calvillo. I think she has the higher ceiling with her grappling and finishing upside and I think she is more likely to end up in the optimal with a win than Eye would be at $8.3k. I think you can do whatever you want in cash games with this fight too. If you have a strong lean on either side you can roll with them solo, and for me that would be only Calvillo. I also think you can stack this fight and hope that your opponents choose the wrong one locking in 100+ and the win in your lineup. And then I think you can just leave this out of your cash lineup as well. I don’t see this being a high scoring fight, but I think the winner would be in the 80s and the winner would probably be 30-40s. I am fine with that stack because it guarantees me the winner and the goal of the stack is to play it safe and let everyone else make the mistakes.
Winner – Cynthia Calvillo via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: BigMarleyMMA.com
- Bets are on a 1-5u scale with 1u = $100.
- I am 124-93 for +256.16u (+$25,616) since May 19, 2018 for all premium bets.
