BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC 250 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Vegas that will have no fans in attendance due to the pandemic. DraftKings has some amazing contests for us to win a bunch of money on this week. The main GPP is the first every MILLY MAKER for MMA. It is a $25 buy-in and $1,000,000 goes to 1st place along with a ticket to compete in a tournament at the Super Bowl. This contest has a total of $2,500,000 being paid out so it is not bankroll friendly, but you get the chance to possibly win $1M. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Herbert Burns $8,900 vs Evan Dunham $7,300
Herbert Burns
Age: 32
Height: 5’9
Weight: 150
Reach: 74”
Gym: Evolve MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 116
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -220
Herbert Burns will be looking to keep it rolling with a second UFC victory. He started off on the right track knocking out Nate Landwehr in his debut. If he can defeat a name like Evan Dunham, it might be time for a top 15 test. Burns is an improving striker. With every performance he is showing more confidence in his striking. Burns likes throwing straight shots. He will stay light on his feet, bouncing in & out, and is going to be the faster fighter. Burns has a good jab. He will throw the one-two & straight-right hand often. Burns will occasionally throw a jab, overhand right combination. Burns will throw some nice, low leg kicks & round kicks to the body. He will throw front kicks to the body & head with both legs. In Burns last match, he landed a beautiful knee as his opponent blitzed in with a flurry. Burns defensively is hittable. He will throw his kicks without setting them up at times & get countered or taken down because of that. Burns doesn’t have big power in the hands and isn’t best boxer. He has just the one career KO from his last fight.
Herbert Burns is an elite Jiu-Jitsu competitor & knows where his bread is buttered. He likes to almost immediately close the distance & try to get in the clinch or shoot in on double legs. Burns has a pretty quick level change & a nice double leg takedown. He also will look for trips & foot sweeps in the clinch. Burns has no problem pulling guard either & is very comfortable on the mat. When Burns gets top position, he is excellent at quickly taking the back. He will lock in the body triangle & has great control. He will flatten opponents out & lock in the rear naked choke. In his last match, he locked in a nice front choke that almost put Nate Landwehr out in the first minute of the fight. Burns gets a lot of submissions off his back also. He will go inverted attacking the legs & has great triangles & armbars. Burns can be losing the entire fight & then pull a submission out of his hat. Burns has 7 submissions in his career. Burns flopping to his back & his limited striking can look bad to the judges. He is only 2-2 in decisions.
Evan Dunham
Age: 38
Height: 5’10
Weight: 150
Reach: 70”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Nevada
UFC Record: 11-8-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 10 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +180
Evan Dunham is making his return after a short-lived retirement. Dunham hasn’t fought in almost two years. He is a career LW and hasn’t earned a win since 2016. In 20 UFC fights, he has fought all 20 of them at 155 lbs. At 38 years old Dunham says he is in the best shape of his life, and actually taking this fight at a catch weight of 150 lbs. Dunham has his hunger back according to him, so we will see if he has one more run left in him here. Evan Dunham on the feet has good boxing. He is a southpaw, works good feints and fakes, and has good counters. He has a strong jab and will throw some nice combinations. He will double jab his way into body shots, and then come up into hooks. He will come forward with wide, looping shoots. He likes to throw tight hook counters. Dunham will feint, draw out the attack of his opponent & then pull counter effectively as well. Dunham doesn’t kick much, but he will throw some tricky high kicks. Dunham can strike going forward and backwards. He can move around on the outside and use his awkward timing to dart in & out. He can also pressure hard and make the cage small. Dunham is hittable early on. He isn’t the fastest guy & struggles to get inside. He doesn’t check kicks & gets his lead leg chewed up in certain fights. Evan Dunham is a tough, durable warrior. His calling card throughout his career has been his ability to get hurt, persevere, come forward like a zombie and break guys. He has a sick chin. Dunham has been hurt to the body a lot in recent fights. His last two fights he was finished to the body which is what led to his retirement. Dunham has been finished four times by strikes, three times to the body.
Evan Dunham is a sick grappler. He is a former wrestler & a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. Dunham is comfortable on top or off his back. Evan Dunham has a very nice double leg. In the clinch, he is excellent with trips & body locks. He is going to be the much bigger fighter, and I think he should dominate the clinch. He is a grinder. He will control the underhooks, dirty box & just lean on fighters against the cage. In top position, Dunham has good control. He isn’t super dangerous with ground & pound or submissions, but he will take a decision. Dunham has a dangerous guard. He will throw up subs and has good leg locks. His deep half guard is elite, and he can work his way back up to his feet or sweep with it extremely effectively. When he’s taken down, he’s very hard to control and is very good in scrambles. Dunham has very good submission defense and has been submitted just one time in his career. In that fight against Donald Cerrone, the submission came after he was battered on the feet. Dunham has six submissions himself.
I used to be real high on Dunham but now he is 38 years old and hasn’t looked good in 4 years. Burns had a big win in his UFC debut and his brother is coming off a huge win last weekend, so his confidence is probably riding very high here. I think this could be close on the feet, but I do favor Burns there and I think he has a big edge on the ground.
I feel like this is going to be an important fight to target on DraftKings. If Dunham wins at all I think he has a decent shot of being on the optimal lineup and if we get any glimpse of the old Dunham here, then he is live for a win. I think this fight is likely to end ITD and Vegas has that lined at -170. I see Dunham keeping this fight close early but Burns finishing him at some point in this fight. Burns is -109 ITD and he did score 108.5 DK points in his UFC debut. I will probably get a good amount of exposure to this fight, but Burns is my preferred play of the two. I think Burns is playable in cash games as well, but I like this fight more for GPPs.
Winner – Herbert Burns via 2nd round Submission
Alonzo Menifield $9,000 vs Devin Clark $7,200
Alonzo Menifield
Age: 31
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 76”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 46
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W9
Betting Odds: -220
Alonzo Menifield will be getting a pretty big step up in competition as he tries to move to 3-0 in the UFC. Menifield is not only undefeated in the UFC, but in MMA overall. Menifield is 9-0 finishing all 9 of his opponents. Menifield has never been to round three and hasn’t been out of the first round since 2017. Alonzo Menifield is an explosive, powerful athlete who is a former pro football player. He is very fast and throws with bad intentions. Menifield always starts very quickly and tries to take opponents out right away. He has a nice jab and a good one-two. He likes to close the distance with a leaping left hook, and it’s very powerful. He will throw left hook, overhand right combinations. Menifield has dangerous, wild hooks inside. He will throw with 100% power. Menifield has nice kicks and will throw hard leg, body & head kicks. He has good speed on his kicks. Menifield has good forward pressure, and takes advantage when fighters make mistakes. His last two fights his opponents turned their backs, and Menifield capitalized and finished the fight. He is improving with his composure, but still can swing big and wide at times. I’ve seen him rocked and hit with counters just because he’s throwing so hard. He needs to be more composed in this fight and not allow Clark to get in on his legs. Menifield has finished 8 of 9 wins via KO/TKO & and is a knockout artist. He has a good chin & is a sturdy, durable fighter.
Alonzo Menifield is a big, strong, athletic, explosive guy. This makes him a half decent offensive grappler. He has good double legs. When he gets in on opponent’s legs, he is extremely explosive & and it’s hard to stop him from taking them down. In the clinch, he is strong, he will land knees, and look for single & double legs. He can land nasty single leg slams and really manhandle opponents. He does a great job of taking the back very quickly after takedowns and has a good rear naked choke. He also is very heavy on top & has nasty elbows & ground & pound. If he drops an opponent, he will pounce and is great at finishing with ground and pound. A large majority of his wins come that way. His last two fights he viciously put Paul Craig unconscious with some punches from top position. Alonzo Menifield’s defensive grappling is still a question mark. He throws shots full power, planting hard & if opponents can time that and shoot, they will likely get him down. Daniel Jolly was able to take him down a couple times, once with a double leg and once with a body lock. Against the cage, Menifield was able to work back to his feet quickly. In the center of the cage, Menifield did regain guard, but laid flair and just controlled posture until the ref stood them up. I don’t see him being able to stand up if an explosive wrestler like Clark gets him down. Menifield also allowed Vinicius Moreira who is low level get in deep on a body lock and control him against the fence. He showed good takedown defense, but Moreira isn’t the explosive athlete Clark is. Menifield is not a submission threat with just one in his career. Menifield has gotten his work done early in his MMA career so far. Who knows how fresh he will be in a third round if Clark can hit some takedowns & grind on him. This fight will answer a lot of questions about what level Menifield is at.
Devin Clark
Age: 31
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 75”
Gym: Jackson-Wink MMA
From: South Dakota
UFC Record: 5-4
Fight Matrix: 54
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +180
Devin Clark has continued the trend of win one, lose one in the UFC. He was able to bounce back from his loss to Ryan Spann and get a dominant decision victory over Dequan Townsend. Since 2017 he has been trading wins & losses. So far in Clark’s UFC career, if he makes it to the final bell he wins. Clark is 5-0 in the UFC in decisions and has no UFC finishes. He has been finished in all four of his losses. Clark is dangerous. He has solid inside, outside leg kicks. He dropped Darko Stosic with a jab. He will throw good one-twos and has a nice straight & overhand right lead. He will close the distance with hook or straight punch combinations. He has a very nice, leaping left hook that he dropped Rakic with. He will throw front & hook kicks to the body & head. He will throw superman punches and likes to throw backfists into an explosive combination to close the distance. When fighters pressure him, he will use spinning backfists to counter. That can get him knockdowns like it did vs Stosic or get him in trouble & knocked out like vs Rakic. He holds his hand: low, and sometimes can close the distance hands down with his chin in the air. Clark will also turn his back at times when he gets hit which you never like to see. Clark has gotten more composed. He sticks & moves, uses more lateral movement, & his striking is all basically to setup his entries to get the fight to the ground. Clark does have big power & is explosive. He has 3 KO/TKO’s and has been finished by strikes twice.
Devin Clark is a junior college national wrestling champion, and I see him trying to get this fight to the mat. Clark has good control in the clinch. He will hold opponents against the cage, work knees & elbows, and works well off the breaks. He will throw combinations if an opponent can disengage & then re-clinch. He was able to gas out Stosic by doing this. Clark does a good job feinting his way inside & has a strong double leg. Clark will also close the distance with a straight or an uppercut directly into a takedown attempt. When he gets his hands connected, he takes his opponents down easily & can take them for a ride. He has strong body lock takedowns. Clark’s top control isn’t elite, but it’s not bad. He will trap a wrist from the guard & use it to try to turk the legs & move directly into mount or take the back. He does a good job of getting to the wrestling ride position & throwing down shots. He has the cardio to wrestle for 3 consecutive rounds and will reshoot & re-dump opponents continuously. In his last match, he did have success with his wrestling, but ultimately succumbed to a guillotine choke. Devin Clark isn’t a submission threat with just one in his career. He has been submitted twice.
Clark is the better wrestler in this fight, but he is going to need to use it the entire time to get a win here. He needs takedowns every round or he needs to get a finish with GNP or a submission. I think Clark is in trouble on the feet if he can’t get it to the mat and a KO from Menifield is the most likely outcome in my opinion. I think he is good enough to stuff takedowns or get back to his feet and I see him landing a big shot at some point and putting Clark away.
This is another fight I like for GPPs. Mostly on the Menifield side with his -180 ITD line which is the 2nd highest on the slate. I think he has a great chance at a 1st round KO to lock up 100+ points. He is $9k though and I don’t see him being able to put up 120+ like other fighters on the card, but I think he is one of the “safest” bets for 100 on the card. I have some interest in Clark this week too because he shouldn’t be very owned, and he does have wrestling upside as well as a KO shot himself. I will be taking shots on both sides of this fight but Menifield is the only possible cash game of the two because Clark has a zero-point floor.
Winner – Alonzo Menifield via 1st round (T)KO
Alex Perez $8,300 vs Jussier Formiga $7,900
Alex Perez
Age: 28
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 65.5”
Gym: Team Oyama
From: California
UFC Record: 5-1
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -135
Alex Perez has bounced back from his loss to Joseph Benavidez with back to back victories. That has earned him another chance at a top guy in the division in Jussier Formiga. Perez has still yet to get that marquee win in the UFC, but he has been running over the lower level competition. He was able to get a first round submission his last time out. Perez is a pressure fighter on the feet. He keeps his shoulders tight, has decent head movement, and walks opponents down. Perez will change speeds, feint, fake and try to work his way inside. Perez is very good at coming in & swarming opponents with wide hooks. He has fast hands & power. If he can get an opponent to shell up or move backwards in a straight line they’re toast. Perez will mix in some uppercuts and standing elbows. He isn’t a big kicker, but he will throw some low kicks. Perez is wide with his punches though, and fighters can stick & move on him. He also doesn’t check low kicks very well. Perez has good striking, but not great. He is hittable and can be a bit predictable. Perez is a durable fighter & a big guy for the weight class. He can take a shot & has only been KO’d one time. He has four KO/TKO’s all in round one.
Alex Perez is a strong grappler. He is former All-American wrestler & very big for the 125 lb weight class. He likes to grapple in almost all his fights, so it will be interesting what game plan he comes in with here. Perez is very physical in the clinch and does a good job of getting in on single legs and pushing fighters to the cage. He is good at working from there & getting on top. Perez is a beast on top especially at 125. He is very heavy on top, postures up well and will rain down heavy blows. He is aggressive with his ground & pound. Perez will hang out in fighters’ guards and just beat them up. Early on his career Perez was caught in a couple submissions while he was in top position, so he has to be careful here. Perez also likes to get to the wrestling ride position on the back, work ground & pound and threaten back takes and or front chokes. If Perez gets to the front head lock position fighters are usually in big danger. Perez has a good guillotine & a deadly anaconda choke. In Perez’s last fight, he landed a sick arm triangle that put his opponent out cold. He didn’t even have to pass half guard showing he has a truly sick squeeze. Perez has seven career submissions. Perez hasn’t faced many fighters who have tried to take him down in his UFC career. He does have 87% takedown defense though. The only fighter who was able to take him down was Joseph Benavidez. Joe B was able to quickly work to a dominant position not once but twice and finish the fight. This fight will be a real test for Perez. Perez has been submitted three times. Formiga has to be ready to weather the storm in round one. Perez comes out very hard. Ten of his eleven finishes have come in round one. Perez has decent cardio, but he isn’t as dangerous as the fight progresses.
Jussier Formiga
Age: 35
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 9-6
Fight Matrix: 5
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +115
Jussier Formiga is one of the best FLWs of all time. He holds victories over some elite competitors such as Wilson Reis, Dustin Ortiz, Sergio Pettis & Deiveson Figueiredo. He is now 35 years old coming off back to back losses, and badly needs a win here. A win over Perez would show he is still relevant and a tough out for anyone. He is a technical striker and has really improved that part of his game. He is light on his feet & has good footwork. He will throw a jab, straight-right hand. He also will throw a jab, left hook combo. He has nice lead left hooks. He will throw an uppercut to an overhand left combination. He will throw nice overhand rights. He is good at landing it a few times, getting opponents to respect it & then level changing into a double leg. He has fantastic leg kicks and has really improved his leg kicks. He is more of a counter striker. He likes to wait for fighters to close the distance and land a right hook. He will land wide hooks when he’s in the pocket. He will use his overhand right to grab a hold of the clinch, and then try to dig underhooks and land knees. He has nice spinning backfists & spinning heel kicks to the body. He has fought the best of the best and has had good success. He has been TKO’d twice, but his striking has vastly improved since then.
Jussier Formiga is an elite grappler. He is very good at disguising his takedowns with his striking. He has strong single & double legs. His timing on his double legs are fantastic. He will use the entry to get to the back and take that standing. He gets a lot of his takedowns in the clinch with body locks or by catching kicks. When he takes fighters down, he is great on top. He has fantastic guard passes and will move from half guard right into mount. He has great control in the mount and will land nice ground & pound. He is one of the best back takers in the sport and can slide his hooks in with a quickness. Once he takes the back, he will use a body triangle and has tremendous back control. If he gets on his opponent’s back, he most likely is submitting his opponents or controlling them for the remainder of the round. This is most likely his last chance to get a chance at a title fight, so I guarantee he has trained like a wild man for this match. He has 10 submissions. Formiga also possesses elite takedown defense. He is extremely hard to take down & even harder to hold down. In the clinches, Formiga is trouble also. There is nowhere to hide when facing Formiga. Formiga has fought The Who’s Who and is extremely experienced. He has good cardio & needs a win here.
If Perez doesn’t get submitted here, he should win this fight. I like Perez a lot more in the striking department here and he is the better wrestler as well. I don’t see Formiga being able to land takedowns, so I think he needs to get Perez’s back to have a chance here. I doubt he can backpack him long enough to win on the scorecards, so I think he has to lock up a submission to have a chance and I don’t see that happening. I think Perez can win with a KO here or he can just use his wrestling in defense to out strike Formiga for a decision win.
Perez is my preferred play in this fight and if I was making 20 or less lineups, I would likely full fade Formiga here. A 1st or 2nd round submission from Formiga is the only way he scores highly in this fight and I don’t want to invest much in that outcome. Perez is more interesting to me because I think he can finish this fight on the feet and he is the better wrestler of the two. He could go out there and get takedowns because Formiga off his back isn’t very scary, but I do think his game plan should be to keep the fight standing. I won’t be heavy on Perez this week, but I do see me being around field weight and I think he is playable in cash games as well.
Winner – Alex Perez via Unanimous Decision
Charles Byrd $8,800 vs Maki Pitolo $7,400
Charles Byrd
Age: 36
Height: 5’10
Weight: 185
Reach: 73”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 year 3 months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -170
The Fortis MMA captain Charles Byrd will be making his return after an extended hiatus. He is also coming off back to back losses, both by knockout. At 36 years old this is probably his last run. Charles Byrd is a well-rounded fighter. He is pretty technical in the striking, wrestling, and Jiu-Jitsu realm. The main issue with Byrd is his chin issues. He has been finished by strikes in back to back fights and was knocked out in less than 40 seconds his last match. Byrd is an athletic fighter and likes to be the aggressor. Byrd will come forward behind solid feints, and fake level changes. He will freeze his opponents in order to get in safely. Byrd has a solid lead hand. He will jab his way into range, along with throwing some nice lead hooks. Byrd likes to blitz forward following the jab with two, three hard straight punches in a row. He will mix in uppercuts when he gets inside along with some short hooks. He is good at getting his opponents going backwards with the combination, & immediately level changing into a takedown. He keeps fighters off balance. Byrd also has a very nice rear leg kick and nasty round kicks to the body & head. Byrd does look a bit hesitant to exchange & be in the pocket. He will grab a lot in those situations & doesn’t take a shot well. Byrd in his last match was finished with elbows when in on a single leg. He has actually been finished by elbows in his last two contests. Byrd does have three career TKO’s, but his main objective in fights is getting it to the mat.
Charles Byrd is a strong grappler, and excellent in top position. Byrd has very nice level changes and sets his takedowns up well. He likes to finish with the single leg against the cage usually. Byrd has shown in his last two fights though, that he isn’t the best at finishing takedowns. Darren Stewart and Edmen Shahbazyan were able to use the cage to stay on their feet & weren’t taken down. Byrd was able to get deep on entries & still couldn’t finish. Byrd does do a good job of staying active in the clinch, working elbows, knees and controlling the position. He was caught with an elbow in close vs Darren Stewart, but he was winning that entire fight previous to getting rocked. Byrd in his last match shot in on a single leg very early, got hit with a few elbows to the side of the head and went out. We didn’t really get to see much in that one. When Byrd can get fights to the mat, that’s where he shines. He is very heavy on top and passes extremely well. Byrd will sit in half guard, chip away and look for the arm triangle. He has an excellent mount, great control, solid ground & pound and threatens subs. He will look for arm triangles and beat guys up until they give their backs, and he chokes them out. When Byrd fought John Phillips, it was a clinic on the mat, and ultimately a first round rear naked choke victory. Byrd has finished five of his pro wins via submission. He has been submitted twice early in his career. I haven’t seen many opponents shoot in on Byrd in recent fights, but I don’t think he will have to worry about that vs Pitolo. He is going to be looking for takedowns, and if he gets them, he will be successful. Byrd is a finisher and looks to get his work done early. 7 of his 8 finishes have come in round one. Byrd has been finished in round one three times himself. Byrd has only gone to three decisions in 16 fights. His cardio looks average at best & he will slow down.
Maki Pitolo
Age: 29
Height: 5’10
Weight: 185
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: West Oahu MMA
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 224
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +150
Maki Pitolo will be looking for some redemption. He was a massive favorite in his UFC debut, but dropped the ball and lost to Callan Potter. He has said that the weight cut impacted him and is making the move to 185 lbs for this fight. At MW on the DWCS he did get a first round knockout. Maki Pitolo is a good boxer offensively. He has a nasty jab and a great one-two. He has nice inside, outside leg kicks. He has an excellent jab to the body. He has an excellent left hook as well. He is good at touching opponents with jabs & short hooks, and then mixing in power shots. Sometimes fighters can land hooks or overhands to counter his jab, and he can get clipped a bit when he’s forced to move backwards. Pitolo will turn up & throw long combinations when he finds his range. He is excellent at using good shot selection. He will attack the body & has excellent uppercut, hook combos. He finished Justin Sumter, a big 185 lber with brutal body shots. He will mix in spinning backfists, flying knees & elbows when he backs opponents near the cage. Pitolo showed a lot of flaws in his game vs Callan Potter. It became evident he wasn’t used to opponents throwing back at him. Against Potter, he didn’t move his head off center line at all and was backed up easily. Pitolo was touching way too much, and Potter just would not respect the shots & come over the top with power. Pitolo got bullied by Potter and showed no ability to adjust. Pitolo can get hurt, he doesn’t have an elite chin. He can be a little bit reckless at times & slows down in the later rounds. Pitolo has been KO/TKO’d twice. Pitolo has 5 KO/TKO’s himself.
Maki Pitolo isn’t a bad wrestler & will look to mix it up. In this fight, he should look to just keep it on the feet, avoid wrestling and the clinch. Pitolo does use his longer combos to back opponents up where he will shoot singles & doubles. Pitolo has nice reactive shots at range also. In top position, Pitolo is almost exclusively a back taker. He won’t throw much ground & pound but looks to pass aggressively & eventually take the back. Pitolo has solid control on the back & will attack with rear naked chokes. He has two rear naked choke victories in his 3 submission wins. Pitolo can get shucked off the back & was submitted by Dakota Cochrane in a scramble with a guillotine. In his fight with Callan Potter, Potter was able to take him down in round three & control him. Potter also had a lot of success controlling Pitolo against the cage and wearing him out. Pitolo has to be ready to defend a large dose of takedown attempts. Pitolo has three submissions & has been submitted twice.
I like Byrd here. I think he is the more powerful striker on the feet, but I like him more so for his ground game in this one. I think he has a big wrestling edge in this fight and he could get a submission or GNP finish here. On the feet, I think Pitolo is the better boxer and has power himself, but Byrd is solid there and I think he could win a striking match as well, so I have to lean with him to get the job done here.
I think the start of the card is going to be great for DK this week and this is another fight I like both sides of. Both guys could be knocked out in this fight and I think this could be a high paced, exciting fight. My preferred play here is Byrd because I think he has more ways to win this fight and I am more impressed with him in general. Losing to Potter is really not a good look for Pitolo but this fight is at 185 lbs where he has never lost at. That could help him here and I do think he is the better boxer, so I do want exposure to him for sure. I will just likely have more Byrd who I think is more likely to get an early finish in this fight, and I think he could fly under the radar on DK with all the other bigger names in that salary range.
Winner – Charles Byrd via 2nd round Submission
Cody Stamann $9,100 vs Brian Kelleher $7,100
Cody Stamann
Age: 30
Height: 5’6
Weight: 145
Reach: 64.5”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Michigan
UFC Record: 4-1-1
Fight Matrix: 43
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: 1Draw
Betting Odds: -265
Cody Stamann has been itching to fight ever since the night of his questionable draw with Yadong Song. He had a matchup in place vs Raoni Barcelos in March, but that fight was scrapped. Stamann essentially set this fight up on social media, calling out Kelleher & getting what he wanted. This is a step down for him rankings wise, but I feel he likes the matchup and wants to stay active. Cody Stamann on the feet likes to pressure forward, front level changes & keep fighters off balance. He has decent kicks from the outside, jabs his way into range, and has good defense. Stamann has a nasty left hook inside. He will shoot some nice straight punches to the body and head. Stamann stays very tight, has good movement, keeps his guard high and doesn’t get hit much. When he does get hit, Stamann has a great chin. He will eat shots and smile. He isn’t a big power striker but has 6 career KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished via strikes.
Cody Stamann is an awesome wrestler. He is very explosive & sets his shots up with his strikes very well. He will throw a double jab into a double leg takedown. He does a great job of staying in the pocket, landing a couple shots then slipping, ducking under & getting a double leg. He is good on top and likes to get into side control, posture up & land takedowns. He does a good job of staying connected when opponents try to stand up & immediately mat returning them. He likes to get into 3 quarters mount & land hard hammerfists & punches. He is smart with his positioning and doesn’t go into places where he can get bucked off very much. He will try to take the back & flatten opponents out. He isn’t a big submission threat with just two in his career. He has been submitted one time
Brian Kelleher
Age: 33
Height: 5’6
Weight: 145
Reach: 64”
Gym: Long Island MMA
From: New York
UFC Record: 5-3
Fight Matrix: 75
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +225
So far 2020 has been a great year for Brian Boom Kelleher. He is already 2-0 with two finishes, coming through as the underdog in both. Kelleher survived a tough first round his last match & then knocked his opponent out cold in round two. He has a lot of confidence right now & is getting a big opportunity with this fight. Kelleher has been calling for Sean O’Malley who coincidentally is also on this card. This fight with Cody Stamann though, maybe it’s not as big a fight to the fans, but Stamann is a ranked fighter. If Kelleher can defeat Stamann, he will probably leap frog O’Malley in the rankings. Kelleher is going to have some advantages coming in here. He has the experience of recently fighting with the extra ten lbs at FW, and also with no crowd. He isn’t going to feel weird at all, where Stamann may have to adjust a bit. Kelleher looked very good his last time out. He was able to weather a storm in round one & then earned a brutal knockout in the second. Kelleher isn’t the most athletic fighter, but he is a true dog. He has elite cardio, durability, and just overall toughness. Kelleher tends to struggle in round one of a lot of fights. He needs to walk down Stamann, pressure, and get him a bit tired. Kelleher on the outside switches stances & throws a lot of kicks. He has nice low leg kicks, front and round kicks to the body and head, and occasional head kicks. Kelleher will try to jab his way in. He will jab or throw a punch in one stance & then blitz in while switching stances with a straight or overhand. Kelleher has decent head movement, and when he can get in the pocket his hooks and uppercuts are powerful and dangerous. He will mix in a lot of body shots, and when he sees opponents tired, he ups the volume. He hits hard, it’s evident in multiple fights. His last fight he finally closed the show with a big knockout shot. Kelleher is very hittable, but he just eats shots and comes forward. Unless opponents can take Kelleher out, they better be able to keep the pace for three rounds. Kelleher has 8 KO/TKO’s. He has only been finished by strikes one time against Jon Lineker.
Brian Kelleher is a very good submission grappler. Kelleher has been improving his wrestling. In his match with Ode Osbourne, he hit a nice single leg, dominated in top position, and ultimately snatched up a guillotine. I would be very surprised to see Kelleher land a takedown in this matchup. He is fighting a great, former college wrestler, and I don’t see him looking for many takedowns. Kelleher’s takedown defense is pretty good, but it’s all centered around his guillotine. Kelleher is extremely dangerous with that guillotine, and if opponents shoot in on him, they better protect their neck. He is excellent at using it to roll into mount, and or finish the fight. The guillotine makes a lot of opponents hesitant to shoot on him & he’s been taken down just two times in the UFC. He has 84% takedown defense. Kelleher really hasn’t faced many grapplers though. He was taken down with a double leg vs Damian Stasiak & controlled a bit. Kelleher has very good get-ups usually though. Kelleher can be submitted. He tends to get submitted when he is in top position though. He will shoot in and get caught in something or get lazy inside of someone’s full guard. Kelleher has been submitted six times. He has 9 submissions mostly all guillotines. Kelleher is peaking right now. He has won two fights in 2020, and this is his chance to leap into the title picture. It’s actually a decent matchup for him as well.
I see this one being close on the feet but Stamann having a big edge in the wrestling department. I think a guillotine from Kelleher is in play here, but I think he needs that or a knockout to get the win in this spot. I think Stamann will be too much for him here with the wrestling and he has the cardio to put up a high pace for 15-minutes.
Stamann is my preferred play here and I think he has a high ceiling. This should be a high paced fight and he could have a lot of success with takedowns. Even in a decision win I could see him putting up over 100+ and I feel confident enough in him where I like him for cash games as well. I think this could be a close fight though if he doesn’t look for takedowns and Kelleher is live for a KO or guillotine in this fight. At $7.1k I think we have to get exposure to Kelleher in MME but if you are making 5 or less lineups that is probably a guy I would fade. I think this is one of the better fights on the card and I will probably look to get it into half or so of my lineups with 30-40% Stamann and 10-20% Kelleher.
Winner – Cody Stamann via Unanimous Decision
Ian Heinisch $8,400 vs Gerald Meerschaert $7,800
Ian Heinisch
Age: 31
Height: 5’11
Weight: 185
Reach: 72”
Gym: Team Elevation
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 32
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -130
Ian Heinisch is a wrestler with power on the feet. His striking isn’t the greatest. Heinisch is an explosive finisher who goes in there to take opponent’s heads off. He is very athletic & puts the pressure on right away. He is constantly feinting the takedown & trying to come over the top with hooks & overhands. He has nice round & front kicks to the body. He can throw the kicks without setting them up and be hit clean or taken down off them. He does a great job of closing the distance and throwing a left hook into a double leg or faking a double leg and coming over the top with his right hand. He has massive power, and one shot can put fighters completely unconscious. He has 4 career KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished by strikes and is a rough and rugged fighter who I think you would have to put out to stop him.
Heinisch is a great wrestler. He is very physically strong & wears fighters out in extended grappling situations. He is always attacking & aggressive with his Jiu-Jitsu. He is a former division ll college wrestler, and he has explosive double leg shots. He does a great job of setting his shots up with punches. He will stalk opponents to the cage, close the distance and shoot double and single leg shots. When he takes fighters down, he works quickly and likes to get to half guard where he will rain down heavy elbows. He can put fighters’ unconscious with elbows and is a scary individual in top position. He does a great job of putting his opponent’s head against the cage & throwing G&P where it’s hard to throw up submissions. He has good chokes and will attack with guillotines and front chokes. He jumped on a guillotine against Cesar Ferreira, and almost finished. He also almost finished an armbar at the end of round 1. When he was taken down, he was able to attack with submissions & eventually scramble to his feet. He wore Ferreira out and took over down the stretch in the fight. He did the same to Shoe face. He was submitted by Maluko Perez. He has 2 submissions & one submission loss.
Gerald Meerschaert
Age: 32
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 77.5
Gym: Roufusport
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 6-4
Fight Matrix: 38
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five:2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +110
Gerald Meerschaert on the feet isn’t the best but has some dangerous weapons. He has nasty body kicks that he has folded multiple opponents with. He will throw heavy head kicks. In this fight, Meerschaert’s body kicks & boxing need to be on point. In his last match, he did show some improved boxing. Meerschaert wasn’t overextending as much and relied a lot on the jab. Meerschaert has a strong jab & against a shorter opponent, he needs to use it early & often here. He should use a lot of jabs, low kicks & body kicks to slow down the forward pressure of Heinisch and try to get him tired. I don’t believe Meerschaert has any problem being on his back, so he doesn’t have to be worried about getting taken down off the kicks. Meerschaert has a pretty nice straight & overhand right. His left hook hurt Eryk Anders a couple times in their match. He was doing a good job of catching Anders with it as he tried to exit. He rocked Deron Winn and finished him. When Meerschaert can back his opponents towards the cage, he will let go with longer combinations to the body and head. He is good at attacking the body in fights. Meerschaert will mix in nasty knees & elbows and gets most of his finishes standing when his opponent’s backs are against the fence. Meerschaert does have some defensive flaws on the feet though. He isn’t the fastest fighter, nor does he have the best footwork. He will lean back a lot to avoid punches instead of moving his feet. He is very hittable and did get dropped vs Anders. He is heavy on his lead leg & can be low kicked. Meerschaert is a durable guy though & has only been finished by strikes one time. He has 6 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Gerald Meerschaert is a crafty veteran & a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He is very good at baiting opponents into fighting his style of fight. He will give no resistance on takedowns, flop to his back when hurt, and always is inviting opponents to get in top position on him. Meerschaert is very confident that he will be able to find a sweep, take top position and end the fight. He has good single leg takedowns, he does a good job of timing singles when opponents throw kicks. He has nice body lock entries, and he is very physically strong in the clinch. He has good control, and nice short knees and elbows. He will grind in the clinch and then eventually drop down for a double or single. He has good chain wrestling and can transition from body locks to doubles to singles very fluidly. On top, he has strong ground & pound, and he will rain down straight punches and elbows. He has good guard passing and is very heavy on top. He is very opportunistic with chokes and has a lot of different chokes he can pull off. He has gotten a guillotine, arm triangle, anaconda, and rear naked choke. Meerschaert has 22 submissions in his 30 wins.
I think this is a close fight on the feet with the edge going to Heinisch. Meerschaert has been looking better in the striking though and I do like him on the mat in this fight and I expect him to look for takedowns throughout the fight. If he can get it to the mat, I think he can lock up a submission, but I think he can keep this fight close enough in the striking to where any ground action from him could steal a round or make it clearer for the judges, so I am going to take Meerschaert in this one.
Meerschaert is my preferred play here and one of my favorite underdogs on the card. He does have a high ceiling in his wins if he can work his grappling, so I want to be overweight to the field in case that happens. I think Heinisch is probably the better striker here and more likely for the KO, but I think he is going to need a KO to end up on the optimal lineup. He doesn’t strike at a high enough pace to score well and I doubt he is going to want to grapple much with GM3, so he is mostly going to be a fade for me.
Winner – Gerald Meerschaert via Unanimous Decision
Chase Hooper $8,500 vs Alex Caceres $7,700
Chase Hooper
Age: 20
Height: 6’1
Weight: 145
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: Combat Sport & Fitness
From: Washington
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 134
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -165
Chase Hooper tries to fight long on the feet & is a southpaw. Hooper is still very green on the feet. He will work behind his one-two, and his straight-left hand is fairly accurate. He really doesn’t throw many punches besides that combination. Hooper is very kick heavy. He has no fear of his kicks being caught because he wants to be on the ground anyways. Hooper will throw nice front kicks to the body & head. He will throw knees up the middle as well. He can go to the well with those kicks a bit too much & get countered and stunned. He has been hurt badly in multiple fights but does have heart & durability. He is also able to flop to his back where he is confident he can defend himself. Hooper does not have good hands & if opponents can cut the cage off & force him to fight in close quarters he has nothing. He stands tall & is very hittable both to the body & head. He also lacks the power to back opponents off him. Hooper has two TKO’s, but both were on the ground. He is undefeated & going to come in with confidence. His chin is strong now, but I am worried about him getting hit so much at a young age. His career may not be very long. Hooper needs to get this fight to the ground any way he can here. He is outmatched on the feet.
Chase Hooper is a dangerous submission artist. Hooper has four submissions in eight wins. He is comfortable on top & on his back. The problem with Hooper is he hasn’t quite gotten efficient with his wrestling. He rarely shoots takedowns, and just lacks the drive to finish most of the time. Hooper will actually time singles & doubles well, but usually can’t finish. He will clinch up & pull guard, and has no issues being on his back. He will immediately look for triangles, armbars & leg locks. Hooper’s length creates a lot of issues for opponents. Even when opponents pass his guard, he will still lock up inverted triangles. He will simultaneously be looking for armbars, kimuras & leg locks if they give the opening. Hooper has excellent sweeps as well, and in top position is solid. The flexibility in his legs allows him to create 50-50 positions or back takes that are very unorthodox. He usually is able to win the scrambles & take top position. He had a sick, deep half guard sweep against Luis Gomez in his last match. In top position, he will get the mount & work opponents over with hard shots until they give their backs. When they do, he is pretty proficient at locking in rear naked chokes. Hooper has had issues sticking submissions in the past, along with holding down explosive athletes. Hooper usually needs to take a beating to get opponents tired before he can control them. Chase Hooper won’t usually defend takedowns traditionally. He will use front chokes to snap opponents down and flows between guillotines, anaconda’s & darces. Hooper is going to have the advantage on the mat and is opportunistic with submissions. Hooper is a gamer & has no quit. He will survive through adversity & finish or take over the fight late. His ground game is very high level & dangerous.
Alex Caceres
Age: 31
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Florida
UFC Record: 10-10-1
Fight Matrix: 92
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +145
Caceres is a dynamic, open southpaw striker. Caceres tries to fight long. He has a decent jab & quick straight-left hand. His one-twos aren’t bad & his left-hand packs some pop. He has solid head movement & he can slip & rip with it effectively. When opponents pressure him heavy, he struggles in the pocket. He isn’t tight with his punches & throws very wide hooks leaving him susceptible to counters. He has nice leg kicks but throws more round kicks to the body. He has nice, front leg sidekicks to the body as well. He will throw two strikes at the same time with the round kick to the body. I haven’t really seen many people do this, but he will throw a left hook or straight-left at the same time as he’s throwing the body kick. He will throw a lot of dynamic attacks like superman punches & spinning attacks. He will throw spinning backfists & spinning kicks to the body & head. He used to be much more active with those, but in recent fights he hasn’t been throwing them nearly as often. Caceres is flat footed when he strikes & while he moves a lot, he doesn’t stick & move well. Instead, he will circle, land a shot, then plant his feet & rely on head & body movement to slip & return. He holds his hands very low & when he strikes or spins, he leaves himself very susceptible to being hit. He gets tagged in almost all his fights and has taken a ton of damage over his career. He gets hurt & dropped a lot in fights, and I question his durability. He does have great heart & recoverability. Opponents will have to put him out to stop him from fighting back. He has only been knocked out one time in his career. Caceres doesn’t have big power & fighters seem to be willing to eat one to give one. Caceres only has 3 KO/TKO’s & one in 20 UFC fights.
Alex Caceres’ grappling isn’t terrible. Against high level grapplers, he is always going to struggle with submission defense. He gives his back trying to stand up & that tendency cost him again in his last match against Kron Gracie. Caceres will be offensive with his wrestling in fights & has average body locks & doubles. He has good back takes when he’s in top position but is very aggressive & doesn’t have great top control. He flows well on top & isn’t bad in the scrambles. I don’t think he will want to take Chase Hooper down. His takedown defense isn’t very good. He allows himself to get backed up & his spinning & jumping makes it easy to off balance him. When fighters do get in on his legs, he has decent balance, but he can’t chain wrestle. He will try to jump on guillotines instead of defending the takedown as well. Caceres has a fairly active guard & a nice triangle choke. He will create scrambles and work his way up to his feet against weaker grapplers. Caceres’s main problem is when he gets taken down, he gives his back. His get-ups aren’t bad, but it gets exploited time & again against good back takers. He has lost via rear naked choke in the UFC 5 times. He has been submitted 7 times overall. He does have 7 submissions himself.
I probably favor Caceres on the feet in this one, but I like Hooper when the fight hits the mat. I don’t see Hooper accepting a striking fight if it isn’t going well and I think he will look for takedowns often. I see him locking up a submission at some point in this fight, but he isn’t a good wrestler, so it could be a sweat until he gets it to the mat from what I have seen from him in the striking department. Caceres doesn’t really have one shot KO power though and that is what I would worry more with against Hooper.
I think Hooper is the one with the ceiling in this fight, so he is my preferred play. He scored 111 in his UFC debut and he has 1st round potential again in this fight. I don’t see him getting to 111 again, but we don’t really need that at $8.5k and any 1st round finish should be enough. His betting line has raised since the salaries have come out, so I would guess he gets a decent amount of ownership with the new line value. I do like him here, but I am not sure how heavy I want to be on him yet. I am guessing I will be around field weight but if I get the feel that he will be one of the highest owned on the card, I would probably go underweight instead. Caceres is live for the win here, so he is in play, I just don’t like investing in him and I don’t see much of a ceiling from him here. He is a GPP only play IMO, but I will have him in less than 10% of my lineups, even if I go with 150 in the milly maker.
Winner – Chase Hooper via 1st round Submission
Sean O’Malley $9,300 vs Eddie Wineland $6,900
Sean O’Malley
Age: 25
Height: 5’11
Weight: 135
Reach: 72”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 36
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W11
Betting Odds: -475
Sean O’Malley reintroduced himself to fans & reminded everyone why people are so high on him. Coming off an extended layoff, O’Malley dominated Jose Quinones knocking him out in the first round. O’Malley was not even hit with a single significant strike in the fight. At twenty-five years old, he should only keep getting better with every performance. O’Malley asked for this fight with Eddie Wineland & he got it. Wineland is a tough out, and former WEC champion. This is a good stepping stone for O’Malley if he’s able to pass the test. O’Malley has a 72’ reach for a 135er to go with knockout power making him a unique fighter for his division. He uses a lot of lateral movement and has a great jab. He can throw the jab from both stances and is constantly switching stances while staying just as fluid and dangerous from both. His right hand is his money shot, and the punch that has one punch power. He will land a jab, then fake a level change, and comes over the top with the right hand, and knocks people clean out with it. He does a great job of following it up with a head kick if his opponents are still standing. He has a nasty pull back counter right hand, very similar to Conor McGregor, and is deadly accurate. He will use unique setups for the right hand as well, such as looking away before he throws it. He has a good uppercut from southpaw position and can catch fighters coming in with it. He has a great kicking game and is very tricky with it. He will start out throwing a lot of spinning and round kicks to the body, and then throw question mark kicks to the head. When he gets his opponents guessing where the kick is going to go is when he will land a spinning back kick to the chin and knock fighters out. He does a great job of throwing a head kick and then exploding with a right hand when he brings his foot back to the ground. He has a nasty spinning backfist into a high kick combination which I love. He has a hands low stance, and can get hit clean at times, but he has great head movement and can slip punches even in the pocket with his hands down. He tends to slow down in round 2 and then get a second wind, but fighters have not been able to capitalize on that yet. He showed a good chin and heart against Terrion Ware, getting beat up in round 2 and coming back strong in round 3. On the feet, he will have the advantage in this matchup, and he is a very fun, dynamic striker to watch.
His grappling is what fighters are going to have to try and exploit. He is actually good in the clinch, has good foot sweep and body lock takedowns. He has questionable takedown defense, and I have seen him in an amateur fight break and quit to baby punches to the back of the head on the ground. He does seem to attack a lot off his back and will go for triangles and has a good armbar. He does a good job of getting butterfly hooks and pushing his opponents off him. If fighters can pass his guard, he has trouble. He gives up dominant positions and can get finished IMO by a good grappler on the ground. He is extremely calm in the cage, it is quite shocking actually and he has amazing fight IQ. He has never lost and has extreme confidence coming into this matchup. He should look to do what he does, knock this dude out.
Eddie Wineland
Age: 35
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: Duneland Vale Tudo
From: Indiana
UFC Record: 6-7
Fight Matrix: 54
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +380
The annual Eddie show is upon us as we get to see Eddie Wineland grace the octagon once more. Wineland has been fighting only once a year for a few years now, but he’s still hanging around. Wineland has knocked out three of his last five opponents & is still very dangerous. He looked very good in his last fight, battering Grigory Popov before taking him out. Wineland is getting a big opportunity here to jump back into the mix of the top ten. If he can beat a guy with the name value of O’Malley right now that would be huge for him. Eddie Wineland is a savage. He goes in there for war & he’s not going to be worried about O’Malley at all. I expect Wineland to have the same game plan he had this fight in his last, forward pressure, never take a step back and throw to kill. His last opponent Grigory Popov was a great kicker as well, and Wineland needs to jam O’Malley’s kicks with the forward pressure how he did Popov’s. Wineland has a crazy style on the feet. He holds his hands totally down, and his head right in the air. He is almost baiting opponents to throw at him. Wineland’s calling card throughout his career has been the big right hand. He likes to come in & shoot the straight-right to the body and head. He will come forward behind jabs, but I wish he’d throw more jabs. Wineland is always looking to time opponents with the straight-right. Wineland landed four consecutive straight-right hands in rapid succession against Popov that dropped him hard. He eventually finished him with a nasty overhand right. Wineland likes to slip counter with the short right hook. He has good slipping & ripping ability in the pocket. Wineland still has that hand speed & opponents can’t make a mistake against him. Wineland doesn’t throw kicks very much, but he’s shown the ability in the past. He has hard round kicks and has gotten head kick knockouts. Wineland comes very hard in the first round also, so Sean has to come ready. Wineland has a very good chin & doesn’t mind being hit. He is extremely tough & durable. Wineland has been finished by strikes just two times in almost forty fights. Wineland has fifteen KO/TKO finishes. Five of his six wins in the UFC have come by KO.
Eddie Wineland is a good wrestler, even though we don’t get to see it much offensively. Wineland did mix it up & shoot a couple takedowns on Grigorii Popov. He has decent timing on his double legs. I do feel Wineland will likely be stronger in the clinch in this fight. Wineland isn’t going to be looking to get it to the mat though most likely. He has just two takedowns in 13 UFC fights. Wineland does have elite takedown defense though. He has defended 86% of the takedowns against him in the UFC. Wineland has been taken down just one time in his last 12 UFC fights. Wineland has four submissions & has been submitted four times. Those were all early in his career, and he hasn’t been subbed since 2009. Wineland does slow down a bit in the later rounds especially in high paced fights. I do expect him to come out motivated and ready to go.
I think this is a setup fight for O’Malley. I think he is the better fighter everywhere in this fight and I think he can win by KO, sub, or decision. Wineland should look to turn this into a brawl and I think if he can do that, I think a KO upset is his chance at a win here. I just see O’Malley picking him apart and picking up a TKO finish of his own in rounds 2 or 3.
This is O’Malley or pass for me. I think this is going to be a high paced, striking match and I see him getting a finish at some point. His ITD line is -160 and if he puts up high volume and gets a late 1st round knockout, he could break the slate with 120+. I will have a decent amount of O’Malley, but I like Nunes as well, so I would think most of my lineups have one or the other in them. Wineland is definitely in play for the KO upset and if he gets it, he probably breaks the slate as well. I won’t have much of him though and he will be another guy I go under 10% on. I do think this is a great matchup for Suga Sean though, so I like him in all formats and will look to be overweight in GPPs if I can.
Winner – Sean O’Malley via 2nd round (T)KO
Neil Magny $8,700 vs Anthony Rocco Martin $7,500
Neil Magny
Age: 32
Height: 6’3
Weight: 170
Reach: 80”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 15-6
Fight Matrix: 18
Last Fought: 3-2
Last Five: 4 Months
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -140
Neil Magny will be looking to make it two in a row post suspension. He came back with a bang, dominating the streaking Li Jingliang as a big underdog. Magny has been keeping busy as one of the main training partners for Justin Gaethje during his champ camp. Knocking off Martin would likely earn Magny a top ten opponent. Magny is a very technical fighter standing & on the mat but is more of a point fighter. He lacks physicality, and just isn’t a very dangerous fighter. Neil is a long guy and utilizes that well. He will switch stances, fake, feint & is pretty technical. He is at his best when he can go forward & throw volume. He has a very nice jab and will double and triple up on it. He will throw some one-twos or left hook, overhand right combos. He relies heavily on straight shots and will mix it up to the body and head. Magny has excellent front kicks to the body. Magny has always struggled badly with low kicks. He is heavy on his lead leg, and his legs can’t take much damage. He will get swept off his feet with kicks. Magny also doesn’t have the greatest movement when he gets backed up. He will look to shell up & return or slip and rip. In his last fight, he was getting rocked badly with jabs & took a ton of damage. Magny is a super tough guy. He would try to start strong in every round even after being hurt, but just was out matched. Neil was knocked out brutally in that last fight after sustaining three rounds of damage & his leg getting an absolute battering. Magny has been KO/TKO’d three times in his career.
Neil Magny is a very solid grappler. The clinch is arguably the most dangerous aspect of his game. He has nice elbows & knees. He can land knees easier due to his height. In Magny’s last win he knocked out Craig White with a knee to the head in the clinch followed by G&P. Magny is good at getting the body lock or tight waist & using his leverage to take the back. He has solid takedowns in the clinch. On top, Magny is solid. He has nice passing ability & good control when he can move to mount or the back. Magny is pretty hard to take down. He has 60% takedown defense throughout his UFC career. Most people who have been able to get him down were high level grapplers. Off his back, Magny will attack with triangles, but can be held down at times. He was submitted pretty easily by RDA off his back. Magny has been submitted four times in his career. When Magny loses, he usually gets finished. He has been finished in six of his seven losses. Magny has only three submissions himself & one in the UFC. You never have to worry if Magny is going to come in shape. He has some of the best cardio in the UFC.
Anthony Rocco Martin
Age: 30
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: ATT Atlanta
From: Massachusetts
UFC Record: 9-5
Fight Matrix: 16
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +120
Anthony Rocco Martin has been a force since making the move up to 170 lbs. Martin has gone 5-1 knocking off several tough opponents along the way. Rocco is coming off an impressive win over Ramazan Emeev. Martin was the underdog entering that fight, it was in Emeev’s home country of Russia and Rocco took the fight. Martin has a lot of motivation right now. Not only is this the last fight on his UFC deal, but also, he is fighting for his mother with cancer as well. This is a put up or shut up fight for Martin. If he can’t get by Magny at this point in his career, he may never beat a top ten guy. Martin is a long fighter, and always measuring opponents on the feet. He likes to stay at his distance and throw nice jabs and straight-right hands. He has super heavy, low leg kicks, that he really hurt the lead leg of Jake Matthews, Sergio Moraes & Ramazan Emeev with. I feel that could be a useful weapon for him here. His straight-right hand is accurate and fast, and he can catch fighters as they close the distance repeatedly. He has a nasty head kick and does a great job of noticing which side his opponents are slipping his right hand and following with a head kick. He likes to throw counter uppercuts when fighters crash the distance to try to make them hesitant to shoot. His distance control is awesome, and he is always reading and staying at his own range. He is a very measured fighter, and he will very rarely get out of position, or overextend himself. He likes to lean out of the way of shots and return with powerful one-twos and his sharpness makes opponents get into a defensive shell. He only has the one career knockout, but he definitely is a dangerous striker. He has a great chin, and a lot of confidence in it. He has never been finished with strikes.
Tony Martin is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and improving with his wrestling defense. He showed great clinch technique, digging strong double underhooks, & pushing the much bigger Laflare to the cage and disengaging, but Maia was able to dominate him with grappling for two rounds. He has solid takedown defense against the cage, he will get very wide with his stance when fighters attempt doubles, and he will counter with a kimura lock. He has nice kimura sweeps off his back also and finished Fabricio Camois with a kimura. Martin has a solid butterfly guard. He allows fighters to pressure pass which is how Maia was able to take the back. When Martin gets on top, he is very strong and has good ground and pound and likes to stay heavy until he can take the back and get a rear naked choke. He has great back takes, and when he gets in top position, he is hard to get-up from under on. He has great kimuras, key locks & is a submission specialist He will attack with darces and front chokes when opponents try to stand up. He did a great job of denying a takedown of Jake Matthews quickly jumping on the back & transitioning to an anaconda choke that put him to sleep. Martin has been submitted twice and has 9 submissions himself.
Neil is going to be the longer fighter here with a 7-inch reach advantage, and if he uses it, I think that will help him a lot on the feet here. I think he should look to land a lot of jabs and front kicks to keep Martin on the outside, and with this likely being a slower paced fight, that could get him the win here. Martin should look to chop down Magny’s legs with kicks and that could change how this fight goes. Either guy could have success with takedowns, but I see this mainly staying on the feet. If this was a pickem’ fight, I would lean with Magny. However, I think this is dog or pass on the betting line, so I will go with Martin as my pick here.
This is my least favorite fight on the card for DraftKings. If I was making 20 or less lineups, I would just full fade both sides. With 150, I might take 1-5 shots on these guys, but my preferred play would be Martin. I don’t see him scoring well in this fight, but I could see him winning and if other dogs don’t come through then maybe a low scoring win could be enough. I don’t see him being on the milly lineup though, so I won’t have many shots at all and I think he makes best for a cash game play because I think he has a solid floor with this likely going 3 rounds. Magny is just too high priced for me so he is probably my fade of the week and even with 150 I would think I only get 1-2 max.
Winner – Anthony Rocco Martin via Split Decision
Aljamain Sterling $8,200 vs Cory Sandhagen $8,000
Aljamain Sterling
Age: 30
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 71”
Gym: Serra Jiu-Jitsu
From: New York
UFC Record: 10-3
Fight Matrix: 2
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -115
Aljamain the funk master Sterling in my opinion is one of the most improved fighters in UFC history. His striking from his UFC debut to now is night & day better. Sterling has dominated two solid strikers in Jimmie Rivera & Pedro Munhoz solely on the feet. He is putting it all together & this test here is going to prove if he can be a future world champion. Sterling is still much improved as a striker especially with his hands & distance control. His last fight was the best striking performance of his career. He is great at staying long, fighting behind straight punches & kicks. He has awesome kick & takedown feints he will use to keep opponents off balance. It makes it very hard for opponents to defend his strikes. He has nice jab, and a good one-two. He was constantly keeping the jab in Munhoz’s face in his last fight, doubling & tripling up on it. He will throw a straight-left, right hook combination. He has a nice check hook moving backwards. He will throw wide hooks & overhands at times, which is where he is a bit vulnerable. He will attack the body with jabs, one-twos & hooks. He has very good round & oblique kicks to the legs. He is good at using his oblique, side & front kicks to stop opponents forward pressure. He will also throw spinning backfists after the kicks at times if his opponents are getting aggressive. He likes to throw a lot of round kicks to the head with both legs. He was doing a good job of following up with a right hook after the kicks in his last fight. He is very quick with good lateral movement & forward pressure. He is very good when he can back opponents against the cage and throw combinations. He has nice jumping round house & spinning kicks to the body. He will throw nice elbows and spinning backfists. He was attempting to counter the uppercuts of Rivera with an up elbow in his last match. I feel you can’t respect the power of Sterling. I still don’t think Sterling has big, stopping power, and can be countered. We saw when Brett Johns fought Sterling, he was able to eat his shots & counter over the top with some shots of his own. Sterling floats his chin in the air. If Cory forced Sterling to exchange in boxing range with him, he will most likely have the advantage. Sterling has to stay long, in & out, and keep Sandhagen at the end of his strikes. I see him trying to use a lot of lateral movement, oblique & front kicks, along with feints to halt Cory’s forward pressure. I don’t think he will try to strike in this fight over three rounds though & I see him coming in with a heavy grappling game plan.
Sterling is a former college wrestler, and one of the best grapplers in the division. He is called the funk master for a reason and has a very unique grappling style. He has a strong single leg takedown and does a good job of driving through on well-timed double legs. He has great control against the cage, very good body locks, & is always looking to jump on the back. He is very good at using his single leg to push opponents against the cage. He is excellent at getting in on a double leg, changing it to a tight waist and getting a suplex directly into side control or the back mount. He is strong on top. He likes to grapevine the legs and try to slide into mount where he will put heavy pressure on his opponents and land elbows until they give up their back. On the back, he is super hard to get off and has excellent control. He is able to lock in a body triangle and really the round is over because his opponent is most likely not getting out unless they are submitted. He has great chokes and submissions because he is long for the division. He does an interesting thing where he gets a full nelson position to flatten & tire opponents out. He will roll for leg locks to get-up, sweep or submit. He had a nasty knee bar submission against Cody Stamann. He has no problem going to the ground with anyone. He showed that in taking down and having good control of Augusto Mendes, a BJJ world champion & Cody Stamann a great wrestler. He has excellent takedown defense & I imagine he will be very hard to submit. He was able to easily defend the guillotines of Augusto Mendes and won the scrambles. Mendes did have some success using leg locks to stand up & attempt sweeps. Sterling was able to roll for a leg lock & reverse position on the BJJ world champion Mendes as well, and if this matchup has grappling transitions they should be very fast paced & entertaining. He has a gas tank that doesn’t tire and will push the pace all three rounds hard. He has 7 submissions in his career & never been submitted.
Cory Sandhagen
Age: 28
Height: 5’11
Weight: 135
Reach: 70”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 5-0
Fight Matrix: 5
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -105
Cory Sandhagen has been flawless thus far in his UFC career. He is 5-0 and has looked great doing it. Sandhagen is a young guy training at an elite gym in Team Elevation & the strides he shows fight to fight are insane. He is one of the best BWs in the world, and he is getting to test himself against another world class level guy in this matchup. Cory Sandhagen is a high-volume striker with solid wrestling skills. Sandhagen averages almost 10 strikes landed per minute, and only absorbs 2.7. He likes to leap into punches, and he can land shots from a long way out. He has a nasty jab and a strong, straight-left hand. He is always switching stances and will switch stances mid combination. He likes to throw a jab from southpaw then change stances & throw a straight-right hand. He uses a lot of feints & false starts to try to hide when he is closing the distance. He will dig to the body with hard hooks, as well as hard, low leg kicks. He has a nice check left hook and will throw a left hook to the head then to the body combination. He has strong body & head kicks as well and is always throwing volume, keeping the pressure & pace high on opponents. In close range, he does a great job of throwing uppercuts & body shots mixing it up & making it hard to know if the shots are coming to the body or head. He didn’t react well IMO to being backed up when he fought Alcantara. He backed up against the cage and allowed Alcantara to land some clean shots before panic wrestling & getting caught in a nasty armbar. In his last match though, he was able to deal with one of the best pressure fighters in the sport & was walking him down. Sandhagen has solid power with 4 KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished and has only lost one fight via decision.
Sandhagen is a solid wrestler, and strong in the clinch. He does a good job of backing fighters up to the cage when he gets his combinations going. He will throw nasty knees to the head & body from the Muay Thai clinch. He will throw nice standing elbows in the clinch and does a good job of disengaging with spinning elbows & backfists. He has a good single leg takedown and doubles against the cage. Against Alcantara, he showed incredible resolve on the ground. He had his arm fully extended, in a deep armbar, and refused to tap. He ultimately was able to get out of it and landed some brutal ground & pound before getting the finish in round 2. He was able to stand up in Iuri’s guard and land nasty straight punches. He does a good job of floating and being able to keep his opponent in a wrestling ride type position when they try to belly down & stand up. He finished Alcantara in that position with heavy shots. He showed incredible scrambling ability against an elite black belt in Raphael Assuncao, sweeping him on more than one occasion. Sandhagen can go 3 rounds with ease, get hurt & recover, and overall just has phenomenal cardio. Sandhagen has 2 career submissions.
I love this fight. Sandhagen has a big edge on the feet and Sterling should have a decent edge on the ground. Sterling is going to look to be all the way out, or all the way in for this fight. He wants to work his kicks and his ground game, and Sandhagen should be trying to close the distance on the feet and stuffing takedowns. Sterling doesn’t have great wrestling but Sandhagen doesn’t have great takedown defense, so if Sterling wins this fight it will come through grappling. I like Sandhagen a lot more on the feet here though and he is dangerous on the ground himself, so I am going to lean with him as my pick here and the big difference will be his punches landing much more than Sterling’s kicks.
With these guys being the mid-range price of the week, I could see the winner being on the optimal lineup. I think both guys are capable of 100+ here and if they get it then they are a lock for the milly. I don’t want to spread my exposure to both sides of every fight, so this is one where I will take more of a stand and that stand will be on Sandhagen. I will still get some Aljo lineups in, but I will go underweight to him and get my leverage to Sandhagen. The only way Aljo scores highly is through the ground and I think Sandhagen can win this fight via sub, KO, or decision. I could also see this being a back and forth fight where the winner scores 70-80, so I won’t be all-in, but I do like this fight a good amount. If you feel the opposite way and think Aljo dominates the ground, then you should go high on him and lower on Sandhagen. I also think you can split your exposure to this fight if you have no real lean but be careful on doing that with too many fights because you are throwing lineups away when you do that.
Winner – Cory Sandhagen via 2nd round (T)KO
Cody Garbrandt $8,600 vs Raphael Assuncao $7,600
Cody Garbrandt
Age: 28
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 65.5”
Gym: Nick Catone’s MMA
From: Pennsylvania
UFC Record: 6-3
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: -145
Cody Garbrandt is making his return after a long layoff and his third consecutive KO loss. He needs a victory here & has pulled out all the stops including moving to Mark Henry’s gym. This is a make or break fight for Garbrandt. Cody has great boxing, blazing hand speed, and huge knockout power. He will throw low leg kicks, but he is predominately a boxer. He has great distance control & does a great job of landing and getting out of range. He throws very nice one-twos & overhand rights. He will throw a left hook, overhand right combination. His defensive footwork is excellent & he is great at fighting backwards & then exploding in with combos. He likes to throw a lead right hook to close the distance, then throw a hard-overhand right. He has excellent head movement and will slip & rip with big hooks in the pocket. He will throw a straight-right hook to a right hook combination. He has good front kicks to the body. He is going to be much more explosive & much faster than Assuncao. Garbrandt is going to use his defensive footwork, lateral movement and try to keep this fight in the center of the octagon. Garbrandt is very good at sliding back & avoiding leg & body kicks which Assuncao likes to use. Garbrandt is chinny. He has been finished three times by KO/TKO & they were in his last three fights. He has 9 career TKO’s himself. He is a first round finisher with 7 of those coming in round one.
Garbrandt is extremely fast twitch & explosive. He is not a very active offensive wrestler, but he did take down Dominick Cruz with some very well-timed shots. He is a former high school wrestler & possesses those skills. He has an amazing sprawl, fast hips and is super hard to hold down. He has never been taken down in his UFC career & I don’t even see Raphael trying hard to take him down. Garbrandt isn’t a submission threat with none in his career and has never been submitted.
Raphael Assuncao
Age: 37
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 66.5”
Gym: ATT Atlanta
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 11-4
Fight Matrix: 17
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +125
Raphael Assuncao is extremely good. He has good striking with great striking defense, great BJJ and takedown defense, and amazing cardio. He is primarily a counter striker who likes to pressure and stay in his opponent’s face making them fight backwards. He throws great leg kicks, and also comes over the top with a beautiful counter right hand. Assuncao likes to keep the fight at a methodical pace and does that through his pressure and countering making his opponents weary of throwing due to the counter strikes and winning by pot shotting from the outside. He does a great job of skipping the jab and coming over the top with the right hand or landing a leg kick. Inside, he will throw well-timed flying knees, and nice uppercuts. He is extremely hard to hit especially to the head. He has very tricky head movement, he switches stances off his kicks and throws nice body kicks, slipping back and throwing them when opponents attack with a strike. He is the less explosive athlete in this fight, and if Cody can find his range & start to move in and out that could cause him issues. Assuncao will never hunt for knockouts & fights to win decisions more than get finishes. He has 4 KO/TKO’s in his career. He has only been KO’d one time in his career & never at 135.
Assuncao is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu, but not an extremely active takedown seeker. He does have good reactive double legs & he will throw knees right off the break. He will shoot singles & has decent body lock trips. On top, he is active with submissions & will work quickly. He likes to take the back, but he hasn’t had many submission victories since he started becoming a proficient striker. He has 10 career submissions, but none since 2013 & only one in the UFC. He has great cardio & knows how to win decisions.
Cody is the much better boxer here and has a lot more power as well. Assuncao is the better grappler in this spot and the guy with higher fight IQ as well. I do think Cody is the better wrestler though, so he should be able to keep this fight on the feet and as long as he doesn’t charge in with his chin up, I think he will get the win here. Assuncao doesn’t have big power so I am not as worried about the chin here and Garbrandt should be landing more volume and has the better shot at a KO.
Cody is my preferred play here because he is the one with the ceiling. I think Cody is always live for a knockout and he comes out of the gates fast, so it could be in round 1. If that happens we will need him. I think Assuncao is tough enough to survive and even win, but I don’t want to invest much in him because he doesn’t really have that KO power. I think you can bet against Cody’s chin here, but I don’t see me doing it much and it will be more so Cody or pass for me. If Cody wins a decision I think he can still score ok, but I doubt he can get 100+ the way Assuncao fights. Cody is also a big name, so the ownership could come with that, so I see myself being underweight to this fight in general with Assuncao being closer to a fade.
Winner – Cody Garbrandt via Unanimous Decision
Amanda Nunes $9,400 vs Felicia Spencer $6,800
Amanda Nunes
Age: 32
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 69”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 12-1
Fight Matrix: 1
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W10
Betting Odds: -650
Amanda Nunes is excellent at using feints & footwork to cut off the cage & back opponents up. She has a strong jab, and she throws it very stiff busting the faces of her opponents and forcing ugly shots from too far outside. She has a clubbing right hand, and huge power in this shot. She will throw the right hand straight down the pipe and over the top very effectively. She landed a heavy head kick that knocked Holly Holm out in her last match. She doesn’t look for much else besides a one-two and is very meat and potatoes with her striking. She has nasty low leg kicks, and a few kicks can damage the leg of her opponent. She has 12 KO/TKO’s in her career and has been finished twice by TKO. Her chin to me is very good & both of those TKO’s happened on the ground.
Nunes is a very strong grappler as well, and it’s what she should try to use for this fight IMO. She has a good Muay Thai plum clinch and can land hard knees to the body & head. She has nice inside trips. Nunes is a judo brown belt and very physically strong in the clinch. She doesn’t go for many takedowns I feel because she is worried about her gas tank. When she does get on top, she is nasty. She is a black belt & great passer. She will transition right into dominant position & has great ground & pound. In the first match with GDR she took her down & finished her with G&P. In the rematch, she struggled a bit with the guard of GDR. She was swept and locked in a mounted triangle. She has good back takes & rear naked chokes. She isn’t a big submission threat with just three & she has been submitted one time. The one chink in her armor has been her cardio, but even that looks improved now. She has all the confidence in the world & is ready to put on a show here.
Felicia Spencer
Age: 29
Height: 5’6
Weight: 145
Reach: 68”
Gym: The Jungle MMA
From: Florida
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 5’ Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +475
Spencer is a grappler with good kicks, but no boxing. She relies solely on kicks & strikes such as superman punches or superman elbows to get inside. She did show off some nice elbows in her last match, but she still grabs when she gets into boxing range. You can tell Spencer is improving her footwork & she isn’t as hittable. Spencer will look for a left hook and throws a decent left hook, straight-right hand combination. She has good forward pressure & cuts the cage off well. I was very impressed how composed she stayed under fire against Cris Cyborg. She showed she can eat a lot of damage & continue to try to win. Spencer throws a lot of leg kicks. I feel some of her leg kicks are very lazy & a good striker could counter. She throws a lot of hook kicks & front kicks to the body & head. She will throw a superman punch into a round house kick to the body. She will throw a body kick, left hook or a jab, body kick. Her punches seem like they have really no power at all on them. She will close the distance with elbows. When fighters can back her up, she really doesn’t have much. She isn’t fast or the greatest athlete, but she’s very tough & will continue to plod forward. We haven’t seen her fight really anyone who throws with fire power & it will be interesting how she reacts to the harder shots of Nunes. This is a striker vs grappler match, and if Spencer can’t get the fight to the mat, I think she definitely will lose. Spencer only has 1 TKO on the mat and isn’t a standing knockout threat. She is tough & rugged with a good chin.
Spencer is a solid grappler, and very strong when she gets in top position. I don’t think her entries into takedowns are the best, but she is very physically strong in the clinch. In her fight with Megan Anderson, she did a good job of getting in on double underhooks and getting Anderson to the cage. She has good trips especially against the cage, & nice single legs. She will take the back from standing position. She is very good at using the single leg to get the angle to jump on the back. She is very heavy on top & has excellent back takes. She will flatten opponents out, land some punches & then lock in the rear naked choke. She can get a bit overzealous on top & get shucked off. She also can end up on her back being too aggressive going for takedowns & getting reversed. Her takedowns really to me aren’t super great, she really struggled to takedown Pam Sorenson, and was reversed several times. She can struggle to get inside because she doesn’t have dangerous striking & bad defense, so she can shoot some bad takedown shots. Spencer has finished 5 of her 7 wins & has 4 submissions
Aside from a submission upset, I don’t see how Spencer wins this fight. Nunes is the better fighter everywhere and she should dominate this fight, especially on the feet. I doubt Nunes goes for takedowns here so if Spencer can’t get any herself, I see her getting finished in round 1 or 2 of this fight.
Nunes has 8 wins with over 100 DK points. I think she makes it 9 here. Her only two wins where she didn’t hit 100 were against Valentina and I wouldn’t expect that here. I think Nunes has the highest ceiling on the card and she is the closest thing to an all-in play on the slate for me. I won’t be all-in because she will be the highest owned and I think cheaper, and lower owned fighters could outscore her which gives a better chance at the milly, but I will have her in more than half of my lineups and she is a lock in cash for me. I think Nunes dominates this fight on the feet and probably gets an early finish, so I see this being 110+ type of fight for her and that makes her a core play for me and Spencer a fade. I get the play on Spencer for ownership reasons since we are going for a million bucks here, but I would rather just take shots elsewhere or leave salary on the table to be different in that way. I expect the GOAT to be on the milly lineup though and if I was doing just 20 lineups or less in that contest, I would have her in 100% of them.
Winner – Amanda Nunes via 1st round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: BigMarleyMMA.com
- Bets are on a 1-5u scale with 1u = $100.
- I am 123-91 for +261.16u (+$26,116) since May 19, 2018 for all premium bets.
