BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC Fight Night Location – Jacksonville, Florida
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card in Florida that will have no fans in attendance due to the pandemic. DraftKings has some amazing contests for us to win a bunch of money on this week. The main GPP is a $10 buy-in and $100k goes to 1st place with a total of $400k being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and mainly chase that $100k. I will probably throw a handful of lineups in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Chase Sherman $8,400 vs Ike Villanueva $7,800
Chase Sherman
Age: 30
Height: 6’4
Weight: 250
Reach: 78”
Gym: Jackson Wink MMA
From: Mississippi
UFC Record: 2-5
Fight Matrix: 80
Last Fought: 1 Year 3 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -155
Chase Sherman has somehow miraculously found his way back to the UFC. Sherman has already had a seven-fight stint going 2-5 in the promotion. He really struggled in the UFC, and only could muster up victories against super low-level competition. Since being cut in 2018, Sherman has been very active in both MMA & bare-knuckle boxing. He went 3-0 in MMA with 3 first round finishes, and a 1-1-1 record in BKFC. Sherman is coming off a loss in November in BKFC to Joey Beltran, and it’s pretty preposterous he’s made his way back to the UFC. I think his second run will be short lived win or lose here. Chase Sherman is a sloppy brawler with a good chin, decent boxing and nasty low kicks. He’s finished two of his fights since leaving the UFC with low kicks. If he lands a few clean, it’s a huge factor in the fight. Sherman will throw a jab out there, he has a left hook, straight-right hand combination. Sherman will loop his left hook on the counter & has big power on it. Sherman will attack the body. Sherman is just so sloppy and just engages in brawls. He doesn’t move his head or bring his hands back to his chin after throwing. The thing here is he is much bigger, probably hits harder than his opponent and is a durable guy. Sherman has 12 KO/TKO’s.
Chase Sherman is not a grappler. He is a former football player, and just a tough dude. Sherman had zero takedowns in his 7 UFC fights. He has been taken down just two times and has solid takedown defense. I don’t really think either guy will be looking to grapple here. Neither Sherman or Villanueva have a submission win. Sherman’s best attribute is just his heart. He is willing to go to war, and swim in deep water. Sherman has dicey cardio, but he fights through fatigue fairly well. Sherman will have the UFC experience & size advantage here as well.
Ike Villanueva
Age: 36
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: 4oz. Fight Club
From: Texas
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 104
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +135
Ike Villanueva will be making his UFC debut simply because he’s willing to step up. He has a record of 16-9, is usually a LHW, has competed as low as MW, and now fighting here at HW. Villanueva is coming off a victory over UFC veteran Rashad Coulter, and has won four in a row. When I look at Villanueva, the first thing I think is he’s going to be severely undersized. Ike is soft and fat at 205, so at HW I’m really not sure how he will perform or look. As a fighter, I’m not super impressed with him. He does have decent hands, and his left hook is good, but he is slow and only does good against stationary targets that don’t throw back. He likes to use forward pressure, back fighters to the cage and throw combinations. He will attack the body as well. I don’t think he will do well against fighters who can move or force him to trade and have more power. Villanueva does look like he has some power but not one-shot power, especially for HW. Villanueva does have 13 KOs in 16 wins. He has been finished three times himself but has a good chin.
Ike Villanueva is not much of a grappler. He does like to close the distance and control opponents in the clinch or against the fence. He really doesn’t do much damage or offense in those positions though. Villanueva does have okay body lock takedowns, and when he gets in top position, he does transition quickly. I’ve seen him finish some fights with ground & pound, but overall, he’s just a boxer. Villanueva can be taken down himself pretty easily. When he does get taken down, he isn’t good at all off his back. He has five submission losses & never has earned a submission. Villanueva is a dangerous guy in round one. All 13 of his finishes came in the first round. Isaac’s cardio is questionable. After round one he is 3-6. He does have heart, but he slows down for sure.
I’ll start by saying I won’t be betting either side of this fight. They are both fairly low-level Heavyweights and I wouldn’t want to trust either with my money. I do think this will be a stand-up battle and with HWs either guy could get a KO, but I think it will be close if it goes all 15-minutes. I think Ike has the better boxing, but Chase is quicker, and his leg kicks could play a factor as well. I will lean with Sherman as my pick to win but no way would I lay juice on him here.
I want to fade this fight so badly but the -320 FDGTD line is the highest on the card and it is a must play fight for that reason if you are MMEing. If you are making 1-3 lineups and you think this is going to decision then I am ok with fading it, however, on this card we might need any finish we can get, and this fight has the best chance of it according to Vegas. I am going to be looking to get this fight in probably ¾ of my lineups this weekend and I will probably be pretty even with my split between the two. I don’t have a strong lean either way, but Sherman is my preferred play because I am picking him to win and he is only $8.4k as the favorite. He also has a nice +115 ITD line. I wouldn’t touch this fight in cash games though so GPP only and if you favor one side more than the other you should get more leverage on that guy with your lineups.
Winner – Chase Sherman via Split Decision
Hunter Azure $9,100 vs Brian Kelleher $7,100
Hunter Azure
Age: 28
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 63
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -175
Hunter Azure started his UFC career strong with a victory over TUF winner Brad Katona. Azure was able to earn a pretty dominant decision victory. The MMA Lab prospect has a pretty difficult style to fight. On the feet, the low kicks are definitely the signature part of his game. He attacks that calf and will make opponent’s legs mush by the end of the first round. Azure really likes his left hook. He starts almost all his combinations off it and will double & triple up on it. He likes to use it as a counter as he moves backward. Azure is good at feinting the left hook and coming with an overhand right or heavy low kick. Azure is explosive, and always feinting level changes. He will duck down and then come over the top with winging hooks or overhands. He was able to drop Brad Katona by doing this. Azure sets those attacks up very well by attacking the body throughout the fight. Azure will throw some decent round kicks to the body and head. His rear leg body kick is vicious. He definitely is dangerous, explosive and packs power. He is a bit stiff on the feet though and wings a lot. Someone who is a faster, sharper striker should be able to control distance, keep him on the outside and finesse him. He doesn’t throw a ton of volume or different shots, but what he does works for him. When he can go forward, he is a tough guy to deal with even on the feet. Azure can strike from long range & explode in along with landing low kicks which is a big advantage for him. He has abnormally long arms and can reach fighters when they can’t reach him, land & get out. Azure is going to have a 7.5” reach advantage over Kelleher. Defensively on the feet Azure can leave a little to be desired. He will lean back with his chin high, isn’t the most technical in the pocket or in exchanges and doesn’t like being pressured. Fighters also sometimes can just catch him as he tries to enter or exit. Azure was dropped by LJ Shulz in LFA in 2019. He is undefeated & has a strong chin & heart. Out of his eight wins Azure has three knockouts.
Hunter Azure is a strong grappler. He is a 4-time Montana high school wrestling state champion. His wrestling isn’t elite, but it is very good. Azure doesn’t look to have the best Jiu-Jitsu skills, but he is very physical with good top control. Azure has good single & double leg shots. He is good at coming up into a body lock after getting his hands connected and driving opponents to the mat. In top position, Azure likes to get to the wrestling ride position on the back & just grind. He will land short shots, work for the rear naked choke, and just keep fighters where he wants them. If opponents try to scramble to a single leg to stand up, Azure has a sick front head lock. He will snap opponents back down and easily control them from that position. In his last match, Azure was out grappled by Brad Katona. He was taken down a couple times and was out muscled in the clinch. When Azure gets taken down, he is very good at popping right back up. He is a very scrappy guy and will be hard to break and just get laid on. In this fight I kind of expect Azure to use a similar game plan to the one he used against Katona, try to walk down Kelleher, keep it standing and out strike him. He may be able to take Kelleher down, but he always has to be worried about the sub, and I just don’t think it’s worth the risk if he’s having his way on the feet. Azure has just one career submission. He has great cardio, doesn’t slow down, and will be trying to win the entire time he’s in there. Azure is a fighter who I expect to have a long UFC career.
Brian Kelleher
Age: 33
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 64”
Gym: Long Island MMA
From: New York
UFC Record: 4-3
Fight Matrix: 36
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +155
Brian Kelleher saved his job with a first round submission victory over Ode Osbourne in January. He was an underdog coming off back to back losses but came up big in a big spot. Looking at Kelleher’s career he is up & down. He is 4-3 in the UFC, but vs his three most notable opponents he was finished. Kelleher is a tricky striker. He is constantly switching stances and pressuring forward. He has a good jab. He will jab himself into range for his straight or overhand right. He will also jab, step back & try to pull counter opponents. Kelleher will throw some nice combinations to the body and head. He will throw left hooks to the body and then to the head. He will throw a left or right body hook to a spinning backfist. Kelleher will sit in the pocket & wing big hooks & overhands. He is willing to throw down. Kelleher will walk opponents into big uppercuts. He likes throwing uppercut, left or right hook combinations. Kelleher will throw some nice round & front kicks to the body. He will throw jab, head kick combinations. Kelleher’s defense is not very good. When he pressures forward, he leaves his chin high & his hands low. Kelleher will walk into shots & take a lot of damage in fights. Kelleher struggles with low kicks also. He doesn’t check leg kicks, and I see that being a huge problem in this fight. Kelleher was hurt to the body in his fight with John Lineker as well. Kelleher doesn’t have the best footwork when forced to move backwards. He gets cut off near the cage & Lineker was able to knock him out that way. Kelleher has only been knocked out that one time & has a strong chin. Kelleher has 6 KO/TKO’s. He doesn’t really have fight ending power but makes opponents quit with volume.
Brian Kelleher’s grappling has always been his strong suit. He has a very dangerous guillotine getting yet another guillotine finish in his last match. Kelleher didn’t face a high-level opponent in his last match, but his wrestling looked improved. He had a super nice entry on a single leg, switched to a double, elevated his opponent and dumped him. From there Kelleher was dominant on the mat, snatching up a guillotine and submitting Osbourne quickly. Kelleher has struggled taking down opponents in the past though. He has just 29% takedown accuracy. Kelleher does have very good takedown defense. He has been taken down just one time in the UFC, and opponents always have to be weary of getting their neck snatched up. In his fight with Montel Jackson, he was dropped and darce’d, but that was after he was hurt. I feel he is higher level with his BJJ in this matchup, but his wrestling isn’t. I’m just not sure Kelleher will be able to get takedowns on a guy like Azure. If Azure shoots in stupidly there is always a chance Kelleher can sub him, but I actually think this will be a stand-up fight. Kelleher is going to be the veteran with good cardio & a lot of heart. Kelleher seems very hungry also and wants to prove he is one of the best in the world. This fight will be another chance for Kelleher to prove some doubters wrong.
I think Azure is the better fighter here and deserves to be the favorite. Kelleher should look to push the pace though, keep Azure against the cage and look for takedowns which could make for an interesting fight, and a sweaty decision if you bet Azure. I just think he will be able to stuff most takedowns and keep this fight on the feet and I think his striking gets him a decision win or possibly a TKO here.
Azure is the 2nd most expensive fighter on the slate and he is coming off a 59-point decision win. He does have finishing potential, but I don’t see him being able to pay off this salary in a decision win here. I will still get some exposure to him because I like his potential and I could see me having salary left over so I would be able to afford him, but he probably only scores well if he gets the finish. Kelleher on the other hand, could probably make the optimal lineup with any win. He fights at a pretty high pace and he is only $7.1k on DraftKings. His wins so far in the UFC have scored 92, 114, 82, and 102. If he gets any of those here he will be on the nuts. I think you have to get some exposure to him if you are MMEing but since I am picking him to lose I am sticking with Azure as my preferred play of the two. If I am making 1 LU, Azure is more likely to be in it. However, if I am making 150 I would probably be fairly even with my exposure and me around the 20-25% range on both.
Winner – Hunter Azure via Unanimous Decision
Omar Morales $8,800 vs Gabriel Benitez $7,400
Omar Morales
Age: 34
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 74”
Gym: Hard Knocks 365
From: Venezuela
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 95
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W9
Betting Odds: -185
Omar Morales is a dangerous striker & a nice addition to the LW division. He showed off his skill in a three-round decision over Don Hyun Ma in his debut. Morales is an explosive, technical counter striker. He has awesome kicks, much better kicks than punches. Morales has a nasty low calf kick he uses against almost everybody. We saw him destroy the lead leg of Harvey Park in his DWCS fight. Morales is a fighter who likes to go forward, pressure, feint but stay on the outside occasionally kick and wait to counter. Morales has decent hand speed & straight punches. A lot of his punching attacks will be just one straight or one overhand. He doesn’t throw in combination much with his hands when he’s going first. He does do a good job of countering while moving backwards, planting and exploding in with a power shot. Morales also has decent counter combinations in close range. In the pocket is where he doesn’t like to be though. His defense and hands aren’t his best weapon, and he tries to avoid exchanging by clinching. Morales is a smart fighter who is low risk. He has nasty round & spinning kicks to the body and head. He will mix in some nice flying knees. Morales is a dangerous fighter on the feet, because he is good going forward, but can counter moving backwards. He also is very fast, can throw a lot of different attacks, and his leg kicks are superb. If he keeps it a range striking fight, I think he has a chance against anybody. When fighting against Omar, opponents have to make it ugly. Omar is still green & hasn’t faced much adversity in his career. We haven’t seen how he will react when he gets stunned or dropped. Morales is a fiery guy & will scream and get pumped up after being hit. He seems like he would be willing to throw down if need be, but no one has brought it out of him. Omar has 2 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Omar Morales’s grappling is still a bit of an unknown. There isn’t a lot of footage of him grappling, but he is a big, explosive guy. In his DWCS match, he showed the ability to dig underhooks & circle off the cage very well. He did allow himself to get backed up & controlled for periods of time during the fight. He was never taken down & probably landed the more clinch strikes, too. Morales has nice knees to the body in that position. He does have submission victories & apparently won a decision with a wrestle heavy game plan. Unfortunately, I haven’t been able to find much footage of him defending or shooting for takedowns, or on the ground. In his last fight with Dong Hyun Ma, Morales was able to catch kicks & get takedowns a couple times. He did a good job of controlling on top & winning the fight while burning the clock. His top game didn’t look overly aggressive or dangerous to me though. Morales has 4 career submissions. He showed good cardio in his last match and is a composed fighter. This is definitely going to be the toughest test of his career here against a similar fighter in Benitez.
Gabriel Benitez
Age: 31
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155(debut)
Reach: 71”
Gym: AKA
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 5-3
Fight Matrix: 65
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +160
Gabriel Benitez is stepping up here on short notice, kind of out of nowhere. Morales had been linked to several fights, but none were Benitez, but somehow Mogley worked his way in here. Benitez is usually a FW. This will be his first UFC fight at LW. Benitez was expecting to fight Lerone Murphy March 21st in London, but now he will be fighting almost two months later. It’s hard to say how hard he’s been training, but the fight being at 155 is an indication to me it can’t be ideal. Benitez is going to be the significantly more experienced fighter here. Gabriel has more fights under the UFC banner than Morales has fights total. Benitez has been up & down in his UFC career. He has a record of 5-3 but seems to lose whenever he gets a step up in competition. All the fighters Benitez has defeated in the UFC are no longer in the promotion. His losses have come against 3 very tough fighters. In his last match, he actually did drop a big prospect in Sodiq Yusuff, before ultimately succumbing to defeat by knockout himself. He has very good striking. He is a southpaw and has a very dangerous left leg. He attacks the inside leg, body kicks and will go high. His kicks are super powerful. His left straight is very nice and fast. He has a nice jab and will jab then follow with a right hook. He has good footwork, movement and does a good job of sliding out of the way of shots while landing counters of his own. He only throws kicks with his left leg, and his right side, opponents really only have to worry about the jab and right hook. Benitez will lean back with his chin high, and his defense isn’t the greatest. He doesn’t have much head movement. Mogley is always dangerous though because of his power and pull countering ability. He has 7 KO/TKO victories in his career. Benitez has a good chin but was finished pretty brutally in his last fight. He has been finished by strikes twice.
Gabriel Benitez is not a grappler. He just has 1 takedown in 8 UFC fights. Benitez’s takedown defense has improved a lot, but it still is questionable. He has been taken down 18 times in 7 UFC fights, and only defends 56% of them. Off his back, he does have very good get-ups & is hard to hold down. When he fought Barzola, he was able to stand back up a bunch of times but got taken down 9 times. Benitez does have a great guillotine. He will counter takedown attempts with a guillotine & jump on them if he rocks his opponent. In this fight, I think Morales is the better grappler, and Mogley has to be ready to defend some takedown attempts. Benitez has 11 submissions & has been submitted twice. He is a veteran, has good cardio, and is always a tough out.
Benitez is taking this fight a weight class up and looking to be the first person to defeat Morales. Morales is going to be the bigger and stronger guy here, so I do expect him to control where this fight takes place. I think he is more likely to get a KO, but if they are trading shots from the outside, I think it could be a very close fight because I like Benitez’s movement and speed more and he has a lot more experience. This could be a dog or pass fight on the betting line for me, but I think at this weight class, Morales via (T)KO is the most likely outcome.
Moraes is coming off an easier matchup IMO where he only scored 70 DK points and I remember being heavily exposed and didn’t win big because of it. I think he is live for knock downs, takedowns, and a finish here so I am willing to go back to him at $8.8k but I don’t want to make him a core play again here, but he is still my preferred play. Benitez is in play as well because he is cheap, and he has finishing potential as well. I just think this is a tough matchup for him. If this fight does go all 3 rounds though, I would think Benitez has the better shot of paying off his salary in a win and I could see him being the more active fighter here. I like both sides but if I was just making 1 lineup and had to use this fight, it would be Moraes for me.
Winner – Omar Morales via 2nd round (T)KO
Sijara Eubanks $9,200 vs Sarah Moras $7,000
Sijara Eubanks
Age: 34
Height: 5’3
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Nick Catone’s MMA
From: Maryland
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 23
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -380
Sijara Eubanks needs a win in the worst way. She hasn’t had any success since moving back up to 135 lbs going 0-2 in her last two decisions. Previously to that she had gone 5-0 in the UFC if you include TUF at 125 lbs, but she struggled with missing weight throughout. She is getting a significant step down from her first two opponents at BW, but she seems to just not be as good in that weight class. With a record of 4-4 and two straight UFC losses, she is definitely fighting for her job in this one. Eubanks is an aggressive, forward pressure fighter on the feet. Eubanks is the fighter with more volume & more diversity in her striking. She is lighter on her feet with faster hand speed. Eubanks has nice leg kicks & good one-twos. She will close the distance with hook & uppercut combinations. She likes to attack the body to close the distance into the combos. She has pretty decent head movement in the pocket & will throw long combinations. Eubanks also will throw dangerous head kicks. Eubanks is durable & has never been finished. She proved she can give it & take it in a great war with Aspen Ladd. Eubanks has 3 KO/TKO’s.
Sijara Eubanks is a Jiu-Jitsu black & is a good grappler. She has a good double leg and good timing on her entries. She does a good job of chain wrestling and will use the double to drive her opponents against the cage and then go for a single or change levels and go up top for a body lock. Her single leg from the outside is her most effective takedown. She can shoot from too far out at times though because she is uncomfortable with the striking. She is very heavy on top and throws hard heavy elbows. When she takes opponents down, she does a good job of staying on top & winning the round. She has poor cardio, and really slows down in round three. This has cost her a couple of fights. Eubanks only has one submission herself and isn’t a big submission threat.
Sarah Moras
Age: 31
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Xtreme Couture MMA
From: Canada
UFC Record: 3-4
Fight Matrix: 22
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +315
Sarah Moras snapped a three-fight losing streak with a third-round finish in her last match. She was able to come through as an underdog & take out the debuting Liana Jojua. Moras had a huge experience edge over her opponent Jojua and is one of the longest tenured female fighters in the UFC. Moras has been in the UFC almost since the beginning having competed on TUF 18 in 2013. If you count her TUF fights Moras has fought 10 times in the UFC. She is 5-5 in those ten matches. Moras is very aggressive on the feet, and likes to close the distance with wide hooks, followed by head kick at times. She will throw hard, check left hooks. She also has decent leg kicks. She has some power, and she can rock fighters on the feet. She is tough and has the ability to walk through shots. She was TKO’d for the first time in her career in her last match & dropped several times by Lucie Pudilova, so her durability may be waning. She has two career TKO’s.
Moras is an opportunistic grappler. She has good double legs, but she also lacks the drive on her shots as well. She will attack with singles as well. When she gets on top, she likes to work from guard mainly and just land short G&P and control the round. She can get bulled over and end up on her back off her takedown attempts, but she is comfortable there. She has a nice guard and a very good armbar. She is a savage in the cage & has 0 problems snapping someone’s arm in half. Her takedown defense is very bad though. She can be controlled on her back and other than the armbar, she isn’t very dangerous. If opponents can pass her guard, she lays flat & doesn’t offer much. She was TKO’d with ground & pound in her last fight. Moras does have 3 submissions & has been submitted one time.
Eubanks should win this fight and she is the better fighter everywhere, I just don’t like trusting her enough at these odds. I don’t even know if she is worthy of putting into parlays. Moras has slick submissions but that is really all she should have to offer in this fight because I think Eubanks will be the better striker and she could even get a finish on the feet. I think she wins this fight with volume and top control though, and I think it goes all 3-rounds.
Sijara is my most confident pick on the card but she is the most expensive fighter on DraftKings and in 4 fights she has never scored enough to 10x her 9.2k price tag. I do like her in this fight and I think she could get a TKO and score well. I could also see her cruising to a unanimous decision and killing our lineups with an ~80-point win. I will be getting exposure to her this week, but I think she makes best for a cash game play. Moras will be a full fade for me and if she pulls off a submission upset, I will just accept not hitting the $100k but she will be very low owned so if you want to take a small amount of shots for that reason I think that is ok.
Winner – Sijara Eubanks via Unanimous Decision
Thiago Moises $8,200 vs Michael Johnson $8,000
Thiago Moises
Age: 25
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record:1-2
Fight Matrix: 114
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -110
Thiago Moises has not had a great start to his UFC career. He has lost two of three matches, but to be fair, he’s fought tough opponents. He lost to two arguably top fifteen guys in Beneil Dariush and Damir Ismagulov. Moises has a good jab and a very nice straight-right hand. He also has a nice right hook, and he is powerful. He is a slow starter, but he picks up as the fight goes on. He has nasty kicks, big leg, body and round kicks. He is athletic and will throw spinning heel kicks to the body and head, as well as jumping round house kicks. He is quick with the techniques and stays defensively sound during and after throwing them. He will throw nice question mark kicks to the head, and he had a pretty nasty head kick in his last win to setup the finish. He doesn’t know how to strike moving backwards. He has to have his feet planted to strike & when opponents pressure him, the only time he throws shots are when his back is against the cage & he’s flat footed. Fighters are able to go first & land combinations along the cage on him. He will try to sit down & land hard counter hooks or straights to back his opponents up & then can go forward with combinations of his own. He will just circle the octagon at times & be very passive, which is kind of odd. He definitely has big power, and he can drop fighters with his right hook. He only has 3 KO/TKO’s, but he has dropped and submitted fighters. He has a good chin and never been finished.
Thiago Moises is a submission specialist, and a black belt in BJJ. He is a strong fighter, and he is good in the clinch with knees and elbows. He has good body lock takedowns, and he will shoot doubles against the cage. In recent fights, he’s landed several well-timed single & double legs. When he does get on top, he is aggressive and prefers submission over position. His top control isn’t the greatest. Moises does have 5 career submissions. I think Moises will need a finish to get the victory. If he does get on top of Johnson, he has the chance to get the finish.
Michael Johnson
Age: 33
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: Hard Knocks 365
From: Florida
UFC Record: 11-11
Fight Matrix: 83
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -110
Michael Johnson has been linked to multiple fights and multiple opponents recently, but it looks like it’s ultimately going to be Thiago Moises he’s taking on. Johnson is coming off back to back losses and is only two and five in his last seven fights. He needs a win here as he’s getting a 1-2 UFC fighter in Moises. Michael Johnson is a very speedy, powerful striker. He is a southpaw & has great lateral movement. He will keep distance with his straight-left hand. He will throw jabs to the head & body & solid one-twos. He will attack the body with the straight-left hand as well. He will throw a nice right hook, straight-left hand. He has nice leg kicks. He has nice rear leg head kicks. He will stay in the pocket, rely on his speed & throw straights & hooks. When he connects, he can put fighters’ lights out. He is extremely fast and has fought much more technical in recent fights. He used to take more chances, stick around more in the pocket and look to land his left hook. He now is using much more lateral movement, staying long, hitting & not getting hit. He has largely dominated the stand up in his last three fights by just out voluming his opponents. He has always had big power even at 155 lbs & you can’t get over aggressive with a guy like Johnson. He has 8 career KO/TKO’s. He has a great chin & good defense. He has been finished twice by strikes.
Michael Johnson was a Juco wrestler, but doesn’t look for wrestling in his fights, it has actually been his weakness in UFC fights. He was able to get a nice double leg in his fight with Artem Lobov in round 3. He controlled him on the mat & sealed the round. I don’t see him wrestling at all in this fight. His lateral movement & hand speed make it hard for fighters to get inside on him. Even when he fought Khabib, he was able to land some shots & trouble him with his footwork early on in the fight. He has been taken down and dominated by Paul Sass, Myles Jury, Reza Madadi, Khabib Nurmagamedov, & Darren Elkins, and the path to victory against MJ is still to try to grind him out. He tends to not have much off his back & doesn’t have great get-ups. He will give his back to stand up & his rear naked choke defense is questionable. He got finished by rear naked choke by Darren Elkins & almost finished by Andre Fili. Even Stevie Ray dominated the third round on the ground in Michael Johnson’s last fight which lost him the fight. He has been submitted 4 times in the UFC, and 8 times overall. He has just 3 career submissions & 0 in his 21 fight UFC career.
I think Johnson is the better striker and wrestler in this fight, but Moises has the edge in grappling and is a decent striker himself. He just isn’t active enough for me to think he beats Johnson on the feet and I think Johnson has the wrestling to be able to dictate where this fight takes place. I think Johnson should be the slight favorite in this fight and I see him winning on the feet by landing more volume.
Johnson is my preferred play on DK because he is cheaper, and I think he has a better shot of paying off his salary in a win. I see him being able to keep this fight on the feet and being the guy landing more volume, but I don’t know that he pays off an $8k salary with that game plan. I think Moises is in play as well for his grappling upside, but I don’t see me getting much exposure to him this week and if I was making 10 or less lineups I will probably fade him. That could burn me if he gets a finish, but I like Michael in this spot, so I would rather just get exposure to him if I am investing in this fight at all.
Winner – Michael Johnson via Unanimous Decision
Philipe Lins $8,500 vs Andrei Arlovski $7,700
Philipe Lins
Age: 34
Height: 6’2
Weight: 235
Reach: 80”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -155
Philipe Lins will be making his UFC debut fresh off his 1 million dollar run through the 2018 PFL season. Lins won the PFL finishing all four of his opponents. Lins did suffer some injuries that forced him out of the 2019 season and hasn’t fought since December of 2018. Both Lins and Arlovski train at American Top Team so it’s a little weird they are fighting here. I am sure they’ve sparred and drilled with each other before. Lins is a smart fighter. He is smaller for a HW, and likes to use a lot of movement, and counter punching. Lins has a strong jab he will throw to the body and head. He has heavy, low calf kicks. Lins has a really nice left hook and a nasty overhand right. Lins doesn’t throw much in combination unless he stuns his opponent and stays very counter heavy. If his opponents don’t throw the fights can be very boring. Lins does have excellent counter hooks though, and fast hand speed inside. He has nice hook combinations in the pocket that put fighters out. Lins definitely has power when he sits down on his shots. He drops guys like a sack of potatoes. He has 8 KO/TKO wins. Philipe Lins does have a questionable chin. In two of his three losses he has been knocked out. Lins holds his hands low and can back up in straight lines. He does have good head movement, but at HW, it only takes one to put you out. When fighters pressure him, they seem to have success landing if they don’t get hit with the counters coming in. Overall, Lins is a risk adverse striker that can knock opponents out with counters.
Philipe Lins is a well-rounded fighter. He doesn’t shoot takedowns very often but has shown solid wrestling offensively and defensively. Lins finished his last fight with heavy knees in the clinch. He has a nice double leg, and in top position transitions well to the back. In this fight, I don’t expect him to use much grappling, but it is in his back pocket. Lins’ takedown defense is not bad. He has good balance and heavy hips. Fighters who can chain wrestle like Jared Rosholt can give him problems though. He does have good front chokes to counter takedowns. He got a guillotine that way against Caio Alcentar in the PFL. When Lins gets taken down, he can struggle to get back to his feet, but has an active guard. He will go high guard and attack submissions and throws some solid elbows. He was controlled on his back in round one against Jared Rosholt. Lins has never been submitted though, and I don’t see him getting taken down by Arlovski. Lins has four submissions himself. He also has great cardio for a HW and can keep the same pace for five rounds. In his last match, he got a TKO finish late in round four. Lins is getting a big opportunity to get a name win right off the bat and start his UFC career off right.
Andrei Arlovski
Age: 41
Height: 6’3
Weight: 244
Reach: 77”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Belarus
UFC Record: 17-12-1
Fight Matrix: 40
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 1-3-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +135
Andrei Arlovski needs to bounce back after a terrible performance in his last match. He was finished in less than 30 seconds by Jairzinho Rozenstruik, in one of his worst performances in years. In recent fights he may not have been winning them all, but he has been on the wrong end of split decisions and fighting tough. That was the first time he was knocked out since 2017. Arlovski still is a good striker. He has a solid jab, and nice leg kicks. He will throw oblique kicks to the legs. He has a nice straight & right hook lead. He will throw a right hook, left uppercut, right hook combination. He has nice spinning backfists. He has solid round kicks to the to the body and head. He will throw spinning back & hook kicks to the to the body and head. He had a clear speed advantage over Ben Rothwell & took advantage of it. Arlovski worked off the jab to create combinations and was even able to mix in a lot of spinning attacks. He was able to back Rothwell up with the jab, and I think he has to do that in this matchup also. He was able to stun Rothwell multiple times but couldn’t put him away. Arlovski doesn’t have the same finishing ability he used to have & is much less risky in his fights. Due to this he hasn’t been knocked out himself as much, but he doesn’t get many finishes either. He hasn’t gotten a knockout since 2015. Arlovski does have 17 career knockouts. His durability is kind of a mystery. It seemed as if his chin had gone completely, but in recent fights he has ate bombs with no issues. He has been finished 12 times by KO/TKO but only 4 times since 2011.
Andrei Arlovski has gotten better as a grappler in recent years, but I don’t envision him using it much here. Arlovski has gotten more clinch heavy as he’s gotten older. He likes to slow things down, control opponents against the cage, and just chip away with short shots. Arlovski has nice trips and throws in the clinch. He is tricky with his takedowns. He hasn’t shown much ability to control or do damage in top position though. Arlovski also isn’t going to look for a submission. Arlovski hasn’t earned a submission victory since 2005. He has only been submitted one time. Arlovski can slow down in fights & get sloppy in round three.
I didn’t see anything special in the film I did on Lens. He should be the quicker, younger, maybe more powerful at this point in their careers. But nothing tells me he should be a 60+% favorite over a vet like Arlovski. I think this fight will be a slow paced striking fight and either guy could land a big blow for the KO. I think this is a decent fight for Arlovski at this point in his career and at this line it is a dog or pass fight for me on the betting line.
On DraftKings, it is probably a favorite or pass fight for me. I think Lins is the one that carries the upside with his power and speed. If somebody scores 100+ in this fight I think it is more likely him. I don’t see Arlovski putting him out at this point in his career, but I could see him pulling off a ~55 point upset and at his price that won’t help us. I think Lins could be popular this week and I think I will look to go underweight and hope this fight hits the scorecards. I think Lins only scores well if he gets a KO and I don’t want to invest much in that outcome.
Winner – Andrei Arlovski via Split Decision
Marvin Vettori $8,900 vs Karl Roberson $7,300
Marvin Vettori
Age: 26
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Italy
UFC Record: 4-2-1
Fight Matrix: 34
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -165
Marvin Vettori is a southpaw, forward pressure striker. He is very durable and willing to take a shot to give one and has good head movement. He is explosive & good at touching opponents with his jab to create combinations. He will double, even triple up on the jab. He will use the jab to start straight punch flurries. He will close the distance with 5-10 punch combinations. In close range, he has nice hooks & uppercuts. He has good head movement & slips & rips in the pocket well. He is very good at returning after getting hit in the pocket. He is extremely durable & if opponents exchange, he will usually be the winner of it. Vettori doesn’t throw many kicks, but he has very dangerous head kicks. He isn’t overly technical with his striking, but he just doesn’t give opponents a chance to breath. He is constantly walking them down & making fighters go backwards. When he lands, he is coming forward with more than one & forcing fighters to be on the defensive. If they try to get in the clinch or on the inside, he will let his hands go & throw punches in bunches while willing to trade. Very technical opponents who are able to time his entries as he crashes the distance may be able to finesse him. Israel Adesanya was able to hit Vettori with some well-timed counters as he tried to come forward & made him much more gun shy. Vettori also took some pretty heavy leg kicks against Cezar Ferreira. Vettori has enough power to keep opponents honest, but not fight ending power. He is definitely a volume guy. Vettori has just two career KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished in his career.
Vettori is well-rounded & really showed off his grappling in his last match. Vettori has good single & double leg takedowns. He has good timing on the shots & catches kicks well. His cardio is top notch & when opponents stand up, he is right back on them. In the clinch, he will attack with nice knees, short hooks & uppercuts. He has close range power. In top position, he has great control & will pass to dominant positions. He likes to throw some short elbows, hammerfists & look to move to side control or full mount. He was able to control Israel Adesanya from side control for a couple minutes, and mount Cezar Ferreira. He has good back takes & will look to lock in rear naked chokes. His takedown defense is very good. He has good balance & digs double underhooks well. He was able to defend the vaunted double leg of Ferreira, dig the underhooks & put his back against the cage. He has fought high level BJJ fighters like Antonio Carlos Junior & held his own in the grappling. He will also counter takedown attempts with kimuras. If he is taken down, he is hard to hold down & will attack off his back. He will look for sweeps & submissions from inside his guard. Vettori has 8 submission victories. He hasn’t had a finish since his UFC debut where he hit a guillotine. That is his lone UFC finish. Vettori has fought some high level opponents and is quietly building a solid resume.
Karl Roberson
Age: 29
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: Killer B Combat Sports
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 43
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +145
Karl Roberson is the better striker in this matchup. He cuts the cage off very well, has very fast hands and straight shots down the barrel. He has a sick jab to go with very nice, straight punch counters and heavy low kicks. He is very fast & has a nice straight-left hand. He has a nasty counter right hook. His straight-left hand keeps opponents at bay & and he’s able to potshot fighters from the outside. He has a great chin, walks opponents down, and picks his shots well. He doesn’t open up much or give opponents big openings to land shots. In his last match, Roberson smashed the lead leg of his opponent, and then finished him in round three. Roberson has very heavy round kicks to the body and head also. Roberson has 2 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished with strikes.
Karl Roberson is going to need to stay off his back in this matchup. Roberson is improving his grappling immensely. He uses well-timed double legs & shows a lot of strength & explosion getting easy slams right into side control. On top, he has good ground & pound elbows and transitions to mount landing shots there as well. He has good top control. He has shown to be very dangerous in the clinch. He has wicked knees to the to the body and head and nasty elbows. He finished Ryan Spann in less than a minute with Travis Browne elbows while defending the takedown. Against Glover Teixeira, he hurt him with the same elbows very badly, but couldn’t finish Glover. He was also able to take the back & submit Darren Stewart, so he has shown some ability on the ground. He still needs work off his back. He has been on his back three in the UFC, twice he was finished via arm triangle. Both of those matches where against black belts. In his last match with Wellington Turman, he showed very poor IQ. He grappled with Turman, put himself in bad positions & made the fight much closer than it needed to be. In this fight he won’t have to worry about many takedowns in my opinion. Roberson has 3 submissions & been submitted two times.
This is a fun fight and I think it should be a close one. I do think Vettori is the more well-rounded fighter here and probably has a slight edge on the feet and the mat. I do think Roberson might have more power though and he is a solid striker and decent wrestler himself. I think the line looks about right on this one and I think Vettori wins this fight more times than he loses it.
This fight is expected to go to a decision with a line of -175 for that to happen. That makes me like this fight less than I thought I would. I do still have interest in both sides, but this is by no means a must roster fight and I think it could be fairly popular. My preferred play is going to be Roberson because I think he has the better shot of being on the optimal lineup in a win with his price tag. Either can make it there with any kind of finish, but at $8.9k we need over 90 DK points from Vettori and he has only done that once in his UFC career. I think he could have grappling success here and he is live for a finish, so I will still get some exposure to him I am sure, but I will look to go underweight to the field. Roberson is a guy I will probably try to get some leverage on and go a bit above field weight and he is my preferred cash game play of the two as well. I think he has more finishing power and I could also see him having some takedown points as well. I think 20-25% is a good number to be above the field but doesn’t put me too invested in him either, so I would guess that is the range I end up in with my exposure to Roberson.
Winner – Marvin Vettori via Unanimous Decision
Ricky Simon $8,600 vs Ray Borg $7,600
Ricky Simon
Age: 27
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 70”
Gym: Gracie Barra Portland
From: Washington
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix:
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -170
Ricky Simon has dropped back to back fights after a 3-0 start to his UFC career. Both have come against big names, and top fifteen talents. Simon is getting another tough match here in former title challenger, Ray Borg. Ricky Simon has a solid jab, and a good straight-right hand. He has a hard-left hook and will throw a left hook, straight-right hand combination. He will attack the body with big left hooks & has nice rear knees to the body. He will close distance with a left hook, left uppercut, left straight combination, and uses his lead hand a lot. He has decent head movement after he throws his first shot, and will land his jab or a straight, move his head off center line, and then will dig to the body. He will throw nice spinning backfists. He has decent kicks. He will throw nice inside, outside leg kicks. He has good body kicks and will throw the occasional head kick. When he backs fighters up near the cage, he will get creative with his striking, throwing things such as spinning back elbows & flying knees. He will throw lead elbows. He is hittable at times because he prefers to stay in the pocket, use head movement & return instead of using footwork to evade. In his two losses he was rocked badly with a shot prior to being submitted & TKO’d. He has gotten rocked in his last three fights, but he is extremely well conditioned with tremendous recoverability. He doesn’t have huge knockout power, but he is still dangerous with 5 KO/TKO’s in 14 wins.
Simon is a tremendous wrestler and was a great high school wrestler. He could have gone to college for wrestling, but he elected to do MMA instead. He is still very wrestling centric in his style. He does a great job of closing the distance, getting double underhooks & immediately dumping opponents. He has a nasty double leg & he will elevate fighters and move directly into side control. The way he ducks under for his takedowns are great & he disguises them very well with strikes. He will shoot with the head on the outside on the double leg, but he is diligent to get his head out and not get caught in a guillotine. He can wrestle all day & has an endless gas tank. He does a great job of jumping on the back after he gets double legs when opponents stand up. He does a good job of turking the legs when he gets opponents to the mat and try to slide directly into mount or take the back. He has hard ground & pound, and he will throw for the finish if he sees opponents wilting. His top control isn’t elite, but he can wrestle all day, continue to stay attached, and make it a miserable night. His takedown defense is good & he is even harder to hold down. He was able to defend all the takedown attempts of Rani Yahya. He was taken down a few times by Merab Dvalishvili, but he is a great scrambler and hard to hold down. He does a great job of giving his back to stand up & then shucking his opponents off the back with explosion. He has top notch cardio & has only been submitted one time. He was dropped & hurt prior to the submission also and is very hard to catch on the ground. Simon isn’t a big submission threat with only two in his career.
Ray Borg
Age: 26
Height: 5’4
Weight: 135
Reach: 63”
Gym: Fit NHB
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 7-4
Fight Matrix:
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +150
Ray Borg has looked strong since returning in 2019. He suffered a loss in his comeback to Casey Kenney but has bounced back with two victories in a row. His fight with Kenney was extremely close, and many felt he should have won that match as well. Borg was linked to a fight with Chito Vera on April 18th, so he has likely been training best he can. This fight will be back up at 135 lbs for Borg, after yet another failed weight cut in his last fight. He is going to be significantly smaller than Simon with a 7” reach disadvantage. Borg is a very fast, explosive athlete, and an elite wrestler. His striking has gotten a lot better, but it looked to regress in his last match. He relies on a lot of blitzes. He likes to throw overhand right, straight-left combinations. He has a nice check left hook. He has a very nice lead uppercut & is very fast. He will throw a left hook to a leg kick combination. He does a great job of faking single legs & throwing uppercuts or faking double legs and throwing overhand rights. In his last fight, he looked much slower & a bit doughy at 135. He was using a high guard & head movement to just walk into the clinch. Borg only has career TKO but does pack some power in his punches. He has a good chin & is a tough fighter who won’t be easy to put away.
Ray Borg is an elite wrestler. He is very explosive & has great double legs. He is very fast closing the distance & sets his shots up very well with his strikes. He has nice single leg shots & good chain wrestling. He will get in on a single leg, take the back standing & land a suplex. He will also get in on a double transition to a body lock & dump opponents. He will look to hold opponents against the fence & search for singles & doubles. He landed multiple slam double legs in his last match and looked to jump on the back. On top, he is excellent. He throws a large volume of ground & pound and is always looking to move to dominant positions. He has heavy elbows on top & can cut opponents. He has a great mount & is always looking to take the back. He is very good at taking the back as opponents stand up. He will attack with guillotines & darces & then quickly scramble to take the back. He is very good in scrambles & almost always ends up in top position. He has good arm triangles & rear naked chokes. In his last fight, he struggled to hold Kenney down & was controlled & taken down himself. He will attack with omaplatas and armbars off his back to create scrambles. He has proven he can hang on the ground with elite fighters on the mat & win such as Jussier Formiga. He looked in much better shape to me at 125 lbs. He has 6 career submissions and has been submitted one time.
I think this is the fight I am looking forward to the most and it should be a grapple fest. On average, Simon lands 6.53 takedowns per 15-minutes and Borg lands 4.26 and they both land about 50% of the takedowns they attempt. That is what I am excited to see here, and I think both guys will have success. I think Simon is going to be the guy landing and stuffing more takedowns though because he is a bigger guy and Borg is coming up to his weight class here. I also like Simon more on the feet, so I am going to lean with him as my pick, but this is a great matchup and a tough test as well.
These two guys combine for over 10 takedowns landed per 15-minutes. I love that stat and I do expect some fun grappling scrambles here and it could be high scoring because of it. I also think the grappling could cancel out and Simon could look to just keep this standing. If that is the case I don’t know that it scores highly but I think he would clearly win if that is the case. He is the bigger guy as well, so I favor him in the scrambles, so he will be my preferred play and I will be sure to get exposure to him. Borg is in play as well because he is a great grappler and he could rack up takedown and advance points here, and he is cheap. This is a fight where I would want exposure to both guys but if I was making 10 lineups I would probably have 3-4 Simon LUs and 1-2 Borg.
Winner – Ricky Simon via Unanimous Decision
Drew Dober $8,300 vs Alexander Hernandez $7,900
Drew Dober
Age: 31
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 8-5-1
Fight Matrix: 35
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -120
Drew Dober has been peaking of late. He has won 5 of 6 fights and is coming off two huge first round knockouts. He has been in the UFC for a long time, and maybe is finally finding his stride. Dober was getting ready to fight Diego Ferreira, so he shouldn’t have many excuses about conditioning. Ferreira is a fighter who will grapple heavy like I believe his opponent will as well, so he should be ready to go. Drew Dober is a huge 155er, and a good southpaw striker. He is very powerful and explosive. He has heavy low leg kicks, which he needs to use early & often in this fight. He has a nice jab. He will throw a nice left hook, straight-right hand. He is very good at bobbing & weaving punches in close range & coming over the top with heavy hooks & overhands. He is also good at going forward & using feints to draw out movements & counter opponents. He has solid kicks to the body and head with his rear leg. He keeps a high pace on fighters and while he doesn’t throw in combination, he will throw a ton of shots. He attacks to the legs, the body and head and will slowly break down his opponents. He puts the pressure on & makes the cage small for opponents. He is hittable himself and doesn’t move his head much. He is very durable & able to eat shots and return. He can sometimes throw kicks without setting them up. He has to be very aware of the power Hernandez possesses & mind his Ps & Qs. He has power himself with 8 KO/TKO’s. He has only been finished with strikes one time.
Dober has rounded out his game & is a much better wrestler than when he first entered the UFC. He has good control in the clinch. He likes to dig double underhooks & get body lock takedowns against the cage. Dober is good at timing double legs in the pocket. He is heavy on top but doesn’t do a lot of damage and is not a submission threat. He will control on top, advance position & do just enough to not get stood up. Dober has alright takedown defense, but he has had problems with submission defense & grapplers over his career. He can get taken down in the clinch & by chain wrestlers. Dober also gives his back to stand up which is a bad habit. He has been submitted in his last 3 losses. Dober has 5 career submissions.
Alexander Hernandez
Age: 27
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 72”
Gym: Obama Jiu-Jitsu
From: Texas
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 10
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak:
Betting Odds: +100
Alexander Hernandez has been linked to a ton of fights recently but looks to have finally found his dance partner in Drew Dober. Hernandez has been training for a long time for this fight and should be in peak shape. He has gone as far to say he thinks he had corona, but trained through it, and is fine now. Hernandez is still looking to get his career back on track after two disappointing performances. He was finished by Cowboy Cerrone and squeaked by Trinaldo in a questionable decision. He is a super-fast starter & very aggressive from the start. He will go for the finish right from the opening bell. He has had mixed success with that. He knocked out Beneil Dariush in less than one minute, but his aggression cost him vs Cowboy. Hernandez has great movement. He keeps a wide stance and does a great job of using smart, forward pressure. He is very good at cutting off the cage & staying in opponent’s faces. He has nice inside leg kicks & front kicks to the legs & body. He will throw nice rear leg head kicks. He has a very nice straight-right hand and will crash with hook combinations after he lands it. He will throw the straight-right hand as a counter as well. He likes to throw a rear leg body or head kick, to a right hook combination. He does a great job of switching stances mid combination after he lands a straight punch. He will land a straight-right hand, switch stances & leap into a powerful left hook. Hernandez’s aggression & forward pressure on the feet is what he needs to bring. He can sometimes get a bit over aggressive & leave himself vulnerable for counters. He has a great chin & took some absolute bombs in his last match. He suffered his first TKO loss in his last fight. He has 4 KO/TKO’s & big power.
Hernandez is an excellent grappler. He is very strong in the clinch, and muscles opponents around. He will control fighters against the cage and throw good knees and elbows. He has great double leg & body lock takedowns. He is very good at using his strikes to get inside & he closes the distance very quickly. It’s hard to defend the clinch entry because he will also come in with the hooks & it’s hard to see which one is coming. He has good doubles against the cage. When he takes opponents down, he does a great job of turking the legs & not allowing opponents to use their full guard. He will try to slowly move to mount with the legs turked. He will work in an opponent’s guard with short punches to the body and head. He likes to take the back also & go for rear naked chokes. In this fight, he needs to make Dober work in the clinch, and play it safe. He needs a win here. He needs to get Dober down, work the body, put his weight on him & make him work to stand back up. He is excellent in the scrambles & very intelligent in BJJ positions. He can be swept & was reversed a couple times by OAM. He is hard to submit & isn’t going to tap quickly. He has two submissions both rear naked chokes & has never been submitted.
I see Dober having the edge on the feet in this match and Hernandez having the edge on the ground. I do think Hernandez can hang on the feet though and use takedowns to try and put his stamp on rounds. Either guy could get a knockout here, but I think this one goes the distance and I see it being a back and forth fight. I am going to lean slightly to the Hernandez side though because I do see him landing takedowns in this fight and that could be the difference maker.
This is a tricky one. It is one of my favorite fights on the whole card from a watching perspective, but I am not sure what I will do yet on DK. I like that they are priced in the mid-range and I could see either getting around 10x in a decision win. I think Hernandez has the grappling edge though and I would expect him to be getting takedown points if there are any. I also think Dober has the better shot of 100+ with his KO potential. Both guys are definitely playable here in all formats, but I would probably take shots on both sides with Hernandez being my preferred play of the two. I think this will be a popular fight though because people will be excited for it and that could boost their ownership. I think you can fade this fight as well and hope that it ends in a close decision.
Winner – Alexander Hernandez via Split Decision
Ovince Saint Preux $8,700 vs Ben Rothwell $7,500
Ovince St. Preux
Age: 37
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205(HW debut)
Reach: 80”
Gym: Knoxville Martial Arts
From: Tennessee
UFC Record: 12-8
Fight Matrix: 22(LHW)
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -140
Ovince St. Preux is set to return and at a new weight class. The longtime LHW OSP is making the move to HW and seeing if he can compete with the big boys. OSP has been a very successful LHW even getting a UFC title shot. He does look like he is fading a bit, but maybe the move to HW will resurrect his career. OSP is long and rangy with a very odd striking style. He has his hands down and will attack from odd angles with unorthodox strikes. He will square up with his opponents a lot which is usually is not technically sound, but he it gives him knockout power from both sides and he makes it work. He will explode forward with a nice straight-left hand. Saint Preux has a nice, long right hook. His straight punch blitzes are very fast. Saint Preux has nasty round kicks to the body and head, and good snap kicks. He will throw front leg sidekicks to the body. Sometimes he can look super sloppy. He will really overextend & throw himself off balance. He struggles with fighters who use movement & kick. He also doesn’t throw many combinations, he will just go for one shot kill shots. The issue with Saint Preux’s striking style is he’s lost his reflexes. He still holds his hands low & instead of slipping & ripping or beating opponents to the punch, he is getting tagged clean. Saint Preux has been dropped & hurt in a lot of recent fights. It looks like his speed with his offensive strikes has gone along with some confidence & durability. He will go second a lot & after being hit go into a defensive shell. He was essentially knocked out at the bell vs Dominick Reyes & took some bombs from Nikita Krylov & Oleksiejczuk. Against Krylov, Saint Preux barely landed any strikes whatsoever on the feet & looked stuck in quicksand compared to Krylov. OSP is still very dangerous himself & if he beats his opponent, he’s usually finishing them. He has 11 career KO/TKO’s including 4 in the UFC.
Saint Preux is a good grappler and has relied much more on that in recent fights. He is a solid wrestler and very physical. He has good double leg takedowns and strong body locks. Saint Preux can panic wrestle at times & leave his head inside to be guillotined. He was put to sleep by Ilir Latifi with a guillotine. He is good in the clinch and can control fighters against the fence. He has good knees to the body and short punches and elbows. He can leave too much space in the clinch & get hit with big punches & elbows himself. On top, OSP is once again very unorthodox. He has a calf slicer, and 4 Von Flue chokes. He got yet another one in his last fight. He was able to take down Krylov in round one of his rematch and take the mount. Saint Preux has excellent arm locks. He got a straight armbar on Tyson Pedro in his last win. Saint Preux cares more about submission than position & fighters are able to scramble back to their feet on him if they avoid the sub. His takedown defense is very good. He is super hard to takedown in space and does a great job of getting his back to the fence where he has great takedown defense. OSP has great wrist control and will get very wide making it hard for fighters to clamp their hands together. He will reverse takedowns with switches & the whizzer & is very aggressive in top position. He defended 7 out of 8 of Corey Anderson’s takedowns, and eventually finished him with a head kick. If he does get taken down, he has a great get-up game, and is super hard to hold down. When fighters can cement position on him, he has issues though. He allows opponents to move to dominant positions & looked to quit when taken down in his last match. He was almost immediately mounted, gave his back & was submitted by rear naked choke. OSP was rear naked choked by Glover Teixeira as well. Saint Preux does have 6 UFC submissions & 8 overall in his career. Saint Preux has been submitted 3 times. All of OSP’s fights are entertaining & he is a kill or be killed fighter. In 20 UFC fights he has gone to decision just 6 times. Saint Preux has finished 10 of his 12 UFC wins.
Ben Rothwell
Age: 38
Height: 6’4
Weight: 265
Reach: 80”
Gym: Rothwell MMA
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 7-6
Fight Matrix: 30
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +120
Ben Rothwell has not been looking very good since returning from his USADA suspension, but he did pick up a win in his last match. It was marred with controversy due to multiple nut shots from Rothwell that changed the tide. Rothwell was getting dominated throughout the fight, but after compromising Struve with illegal shots, he finished him. Rothwell is very big, very durable & when he hits people, they feel it. Rothwell has a very awkward style. He stands almost square in his stance & due to that is powerful from both sides. He will switch stances as well & his movement is very hard to get a beat on. He likes to keep his hands open & extended due to his reach. He is able to hand fight & get openings for his shots. He has a pretty nice jab. He will throw nice, straight punches & powerful hooks. He closes the distances with straight punches nicely. He will land nasty right hooks to be body. He will throw the right hook to the body a couple times, and then throw uppercuts to the head. He has very nice uppercuts. He likes to lean towards the right a lot even as he walks forward keeping his head totally off center line. He throws everything into his shots & throws hammers. He will throw heavy low kicks & front kicks to the body. Rothwell has a tricky head kick & has a KO via head kick. Something that will benefit him in this fight is his forward pressure & volume. He will almost undoubtedly be the one going forward and throwing more strikes. He has the ability to take ungodly punishment & come back to get the finish. He was getting beat up badly by Overeem before turning the tables with a big KO.
Rothwell is not much of an offensive grappler. He will try to close the distance and get double underhooks. He will get the single collar clinch, & he throws nice uppercuts there. I haven’t seen him get in top position very much lately, but I imagine with his size & power that he’d be heavy on top and hit hard. He has very good takedown defense & a super dangerous Gogo choke. He is the only fighter to ever submit Josh Barnett, and it’s dangerous to shoot on Rothwell. Rothwell has six submissions & has been submitted four times himself. His cardio is good for a HW. Rothwell is just a very odd to fight. He is extremely durable & moves very awkwardly. He packs power and can knock you out. Rothwell will be gunning for another knock out here.
This is an interesting one with OSP making the move to Heavyweight. I would want to see how he looks on the scales before I thought about betting this one either way, but I do think he is the better fighter and the rightful favorite. I just am not sure about -170 because I don’t see him getting this fight to the ground and it will be hard to knock out Rothwell. I just think he is more likely to win over the course of 3-rounds, but this is probably a stay away fight for me.
If I knew this would go all 3-rounds, I would fade this fight even with 150 lineups. Unfortunately, we don’t know that will be the case and FDGTD is -175 which tell us that we probably see a KO. I think OSP is the preferred play here just because he is the better fighter, but I don’t know that he can KO Rothwell and this will be a slower paced fight until the KO happens, if it even does. I will be underweight to both sides of this fight and I might just full fade it with 10-20 lineups. If you feel confident in either side getting the KO then you should go heavier on them and maybe fade the other, but this is not a fight I like at all personally.
Winner – Ovince Saint Preux via Unanimous Decision
Anthony Smith $9,000 vs Glover Teixeira $7,200
Anthony Smith
Age: 31
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Disorderly Conduct
From: Nebraska
UFC Record: 8-4
Fight Matrix: 4
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -175
Anthony Smith is finally making his return after almost one year away from the octagon. In Smith’s last match, he earned the biggest victory of his career finishing Alexander Gustafsson in Sweden. If he can get a resounding win here vs Glover, he will be very close to a second UFC title shot. Smith has been going through a lot personally though. For one, he cannot go to his usual training camp of Factory X and has been training at home. To compound that Smith had an intruder enter his house and had a very traumatizing moment having to fight him in front of his family. Smith has stated his kids are sleeping in his room, and it’s been hard. All those things have to be taken into account when you are looking at this fight. His opponent Glover Teixeira has his own gym and seems to have not faced nearly the struggles this camp Smith has. Anthony Smith is a very aggressive Muay Thai striker, and he has to let it go once again here. Smith has a nice jab & will throw a nice jab, left hook combination. He will throw a nice, slip left uppercut & will throw the left hook to the body as well. His lead left hook is something he tends to use a lot. He has good one-twos & his straight-right hand is powerful. He will throw it early & often. He is good at throwing the straight-right hand, expecting the counter, avoiding it & landing a counter left hook or second straight-right. Smith isn’t the fastest with his hand speed & can be countered. He is definitely a better kicker than puncher. Smith throws chopping low kicks, which he needs to use here. Smith has hard body kicks. He likes to throw a left hook body kick combination. He will also throw straight-left, body kick combo. He likes to throw front kicks & front knees to the body. Smith does a good job of throwing head kicks after combinations. He will get opponents moving backwards with punching combos & finish with a head kick they don’t see coming. Smith will also throw nice lead elbows, and he throws them with bad intentions. Everything he throws he’s trying to do damage & there are not many setup shots in Smith’s game. Smith doesn’t have great defense standing. Like I said, he doesn’t throw many setup shots, and he doesn’t feint much. Fighters can get his timing eventually and catch him as he closes the distance. He can be hit with hard low kicks and doesn’t check kicks. He also will shell up & take shots on his guard rather than moving his feet. He is a tough guy & proved his durability taking some big shots from Volkan Oezdemir. He has been KO/TKO’d 8 times, but only once since 2011. He had a majority of those TKO losses at the beginning of his career and in his last 29 fights he’s been KO/TKO’d twice. Smith is a killer himself with nasty power. He has 17 KO/TKO’s & has finished all his wins at LHW.
Anthony Smith is good in the clinch & is dangerous. He has nasty knees to the legs, to the body and head, and hard elbows. He was able to finish Rashad Evans with a hard shot in the clinch. Smith isn’t much of an offensive wrestler but will try to time double legs or body locks if he’s being blitzed. He was able to get on top of Volkan Oezdemir & finish the fight. He stands tall & has a flat footed style. Fighters have easily been able to get in on his legs and wrestle him to the mat. He was taken down more than once by Volkan Oezdemir, who is a kick boxer. He will get a nice underhook in the clinch, frame and attack with big knees and elbows if he can deny the attempt. He has improved a bit with his stance & doesn’t stand quite as tall, but Glover could possibly have success taking him down. In his match vs Jones, he did a good job of denying the takedown attempts. Smith isn’t bad off his back & actually has some pretty slick BJJ. He has very nice triangles & throws them up very quickly. He will attack with armbars from guard as well. He has good half guard sweeps & will rain down big G&P from top position. Smith did get his guard passed & was dominated a bit on the ground by Volkan Oezdemir. He was able to get a nice rear naked choke submission in his last victory. Smith has 13 submissions in his career. He has been submitted 5 times himself, but not in 6 years. Smith tends to do well early or late in fights he’s losing. He either takes his opponents out quickly or waits for them to make a mistake, takes punishment but ultimately finds that finishing sequence.
Glover Teixeira
Age: 40
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Teixeira MMA & Fitness
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 13-5
Fight Matrix: 11
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +155
Glover Teixeira turned back the clock in 2019 going undefeated at 3-0. He beat 3 up & coming beasts, showing he definitely still has a lot left. If Glover can beat Anthony Smith, he will likely get a number one contender match. This is a make or break fight for him if he ever wants another title shot. Teixeira will plod forward & look for boxing combinations. He sets most of his offense up off the jab. He will throw a jab, left hook, and nice one-twos. He has a nice jab, overhand right & jab, right hook combination. His straight-right hand is clean & powerful. He will throw a left hook, straight-right hand combination. He will rip the body with big hooks, & then go up to the head. The body shots help disguise his takedown entries. He isn’t nearly as fast as he once was and doesn’t have the head movement he used to have. He is much more stationary & easy to hit. He doesn’t move his head off center line & fighters have been able to slip his jab & counter with uppercuts. He has a nice uppercut himself & times it well to counter opponent’s takedown attempts. When he gets inside, he is still very dangerous. He will unload with nasty hooks to the to the body and head with cracking power. His ability to take a shot is diminished, but he still has a solid chin. He gets rocked badly in a lot of fights but recovers quickly. He has 17 KO/TKO’s himself and has been finished 3 times in his career. I do feel he has the power to hurt Smith if he lands clean.
Teixeira is an awesome grappler. He has great dirty boxing in the clinch, attacking to the body and head with big punches. He is a strong wrestler with a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He has a great single leg in space. He does a good job of using the single to push opponents to the cage, change it to a double & dump opponents. He has good doubles against the cage & body lock trips. He was rocked badly with big elbows when he was in on a double in his last fight. Teixeira has great top control. He likes to get half guard and keep his weight heavy on opponents. He will look for arm triangles while landing short elbows & hammerfists. He will methodically pass to mount, and then the back where he can finish the fight. He is excellent at flattening his opponents out and pounding them out or getting a RNC. He will also move to side control & look for the crucifix position. He has great takedown defense, he digs good underhooks & has a nice sprawl. He will defend the takedown with a guillotine attempt & he has a great squeeze. He does a great job of controlling the legs when he wraps up the neck giving him the ability to roll into top position. Teixeira has 7 submissions & has never been submitted. He is going to be the bigger, more experienced fighter. He has good cardio. The game plan for Teixeira doesn’t change much these days. He is going to try to get inside & use his hooks & uppercuts to setup takedowns. If he gets top position in this fight, I think he definitely could get the submission. He can’t show respect to Smith & bite on his feints on the outside. He needs to be aggressive, throw hard & try to touch the weak chin of Smith & take him down.
Even with Glover nearing the end of his career and Smith coming off the biggest win of his career, I kind of like Glover in this fight. I do think Glover is the better boxer on the feet and I think he is the better wrestler as well. Smith is dangerous on the feet and the ground as well but -175 is too high IMO, so this is a dog or pass fight for me and I think it’s a decent matchup for Glover. I am not confident in him getting a win at all, but I do think this line should be closer to even and I will take Glover by TKO as my prediction.
Neither of these guys put up a very high pace, so I don’t love that, and if this does go to decision I am not confident the winner will be on the optimal lineups. However, these guys don’t go to decision often and we have a -300 FDGTD line here which is currently the 2nd highest on the card. That plus the 5 rounds is going to make this an all-in fight for me just because I don’t think there are any other all-in fights on this card. I think you can stack this fight in cash to lock in the winner and probably 100+ points, but I don’t think you have to. I wouldn’t be against using either side solo in cash games or just fading this fight in your cash lineup. I don’t think I will focus much on cash this week, so I am not even sure what I would do yet, but I would probably lean with stacking it.
Winner – Glover Teixeira via 3rd round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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