BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC 249 Location – Jacksonville, Florida
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Florida that will have no fans in attendance due to the pandemic. DraftKings has some amazing contests for us to win a bunch of money on this week. The main GPP is a $20 buy-in and $200k goes to 1st place with a total of $1,000,000 being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and mainly chase that $200k. I will probably throw a handful of lineups in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Ryan Spann $9,300 vs Sam Alvey $6,900
Ryan Spann
Age: 28
Height: 6’5
Weight: 205
Reach: 81.5”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 15
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -400
Ryan Spann is stepping up to take on Sam Alvey on relatively short notice. Spann was scheduled to face Paul Craig on March 21th, but with that fight being cancelled he is getting in here. He should be in relatively good shape still & ready to go. Spann has been on fire as of late. He is undefeated in the UFC with back to back finishes. Ryan Spann is consistently improving and getting better. On the feet, he is still pretty basic, but he’s long, fast and a powerful athlete. Spann has an 81.5” reach and uses it well. He is good at walking opponents down, controlling distance with the jab and pull countering. He really likes to throw the one-two combination and has a heavy straight-right hand. In the pocket, Spann has fast hands, and will throw some nice hooks and uppercuts. He will get crazy inside though and throw a little wild. His counter left hook is pretty nice though. In his match with Nogueira his hand speed was too much, and he clipped Nogueira many times before finishing him. He rocked Devin Clark, and had him looking scared to throw, backing him up for a majority of the fight. Spann showed good finishing instincts in that one ending it with a brutal uppercut.
Ryan Spann’s grappling is the best part of his game to me. He doesn’t have the greatest wrestling, but it’s improving. He was able to take down Nogueira and quickly lock in an arm triangle choke. Spann is pretty good on top & has strong ground and pound. The most dangerous aspect of his game is definitely his guillotine. It is really nasty, and he can snap it on quickly. He uses it very well to negate takedowns and catches it in scrambles. Opponents always have to be weary of it if they are fighting him. Spann’s defensive wresting is a bit questionable. He was taken down fairly easily in the clinch and against the cage against Luís Henríque. Off his back, Spann looks much improved as well. When he fought Luís Henríque, he was controlled rather easily, but he showed good gets ups vs Devin Clark.
Sam Alvey
Age: 33
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Team Quest
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 10-8
Fight Matrix: 36
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: +355
Sam Alvey will be making the switch and fighting on this card instead of his originally scheduled date. Alvey was originally scheduled to fight March 28th, but with that card being scrapped he is fighting here. Alvey has lost three consecutive fights & likely is fighting for his UFC career here. Sam Alvey fights similarly in almost every fight. He likes to play the counter game and look for a one-punch knockout. Alvey is a southpaw and has power in both hands. His two major weapons are his right hook & left hand. Alvey has added a couple things to his arsenal recently such as a low kick. He has been trying to use his jab a bit more. Alvey just doesn’t throw much volume and allows his opponents to lead the dance. Alvey will go backwards the entire fight if opponents pressure him. Alvey likes to try to use flurries late in rounds to steal rounds. When he hurts opponents, he swarms and throws the kitchen sink. Alvey has always been very durable. He eats shots to give shots and is dangerous in exchanges. Recently he has been getting hurt more but has had some early stoppages go against him. Overall, Alvey has 19 knockout wins, and has been knocked out just three times. He has been finished by strikes in two of his last three fights.
Sam Alvey is a very good defensive grappler. He has strong takedown defense, and good get-ups if he is taken down. Alvey uses the cage very well to get back to his feet. He will attack with front chokes to defend takedown attempts. In his last match, he got his back taken by a black belt, but was able to turn in and control Abreu in his guard for a minute or so. Alvey doesn’t go for takedowns himself very often. In 18 UFC fights Alvey has one takedown. Alvey isn’t very dangerous with submissions with only three in his career. He has been submitted just one time. Alvey has okay cardio, but he doesn’t throw enough volume to even warrant him getting tired. Alvey has to show more aggressiveness here. He can’t allow himself to get walked down and pushed towards the cage. His job is likely on the line, and he needs to fight like it.
This will likely be a slow-paced striking battle. I don’t see either guy landing takedowns here and it could come down to who lands more volume. I think Spann will be the one pressing forward and probably landing a bit more, and I would say he probably has more power and the better chin at this point in their careers. I do think he is the rightful favorite here but at almost 3-1 odds I would say this is a dog or pass fight for me because I don’t see him overwhelming Alvey with volume and I could see a close fight that goes either way.
This is not a fight I love for DK, but it is the curtain jerker, so I think I need some exposure to both sides. Alvey because he has power and is the cheapest fighter on the card, and Spann because he is the biggest favorite on the card and Alvey doesn’t have the durability that he used to. I think if I am making 20 lineups I am really only looking to get 1-3 of each guy here but if I was only making 1-5 lineups this fight would be a full fade for me. I think Spann is the only playable guy in cash games, but I don’t love him there and I don’t see him having much of a ceiling unless he gets a round 1 KO. I don’t think either guy will be very highly owned though so that is why I will sprinkle in a couple of each and I will be rooting for Alvey to get the win because I think the line is off and I put a half unit on him at +343.
Winner – Ryan Spann via Split Decision
Bryce Mitchell $8,500 vs Charles Rosa $7,700
Bryce Mitchell
Age: 25
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: Westside Fight Team
From: Arkansas
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 138
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -155
Bryce Mitchell has done well and made a name for himself thus far in his UFC career. He has a fun personality out of the cage, to go with his entertaining fight style. In his last match, Mitchell hit a twister and his grappling has looked great of late. Bryce Mitchell as a striker is average. Mitchell doesn’t have great hands, so he relies heavily on kicks, stance switching, and being tricky. He will throw a lot of front leg sidekicks to the body and head and has developed a solid straight down the middle. He sat down Bobby Moffett with that punch. Mitchell doesn’t really like throwing hands though. He will trade hooks in the pocket and has a decent uppercut. He is just sloppy in exchanges and looks uncomfortable. He doesn’t hit the hardest either, so he can be out gunned at times in fire fights. He has decent round kicks, but really, he uses his striking to setup takedown entries. Mitchell is not going to likely knock opponents out on the feet. When he struggles to get fights to the ground, you start to see opponents walk him down and get confident. He struggles with forward pressure on the feet. Mitchell does have a lot of heart and a strong chin. He has never been finished by strikes in his career. He has also never finished anyone with strikes.
Bryce Mitchell is a dangerous grappler, that’s his thing. He has steadily improved his wrestling, but the Jiu-Jitsu aspect is where he truly shines. Mitchell does a good job of timing single & double legs, especially if opponents are near the cage. He is good at getting his hands connected and dumping opponents. In top position, Mitchell is very aggressive and loves to take the back. In his last match Mitchell showed great ability to pass. He was able to mount and land some heavy shots. He showed great riding ability, transitioned to multiple dangerous positions and eventually twistered him. Once Mitchell does take the back he will use multiple attacks as well. He has a nasty rear naked choke and will flatten opponents out lock it in and finish the fight. He also likes to go to the crucifix position from taking the back, and attack armbars & the rear naked while throwing ground & pound. Mitchell’s takedown defense though is not the best, and he almost welcomes being on his back. Mitchell will attack with kimuras to counter takedown attempts but hasn’t been effective with that in the UFC. Mitchell will attack immediately off his back, and you can see the heavy Tenth Planet influence. He will attack with a high or rubber guard and has a nasty triangle choke. He has very flexible legs and can create armbar or triangle opportunities when opponents don’t think he can. He is also very good at attacking with elbows from inside his guard. Mitchell has very nice half guard sweeps, and always is looking to create scrambles. Against high level wrestlers with good top pressure, he can struggle a bit and get held down. In his fights with Brad Katona and Tyler Diamond he struggled with this & gassed hard. Mitchell tends to give his back to stand up & Katona was able to catch him in a rear naked choke in the third round. Mitchell is a fighter who starts fast & usually fades. 8 of Mitchell’s 9 submissions happened in the first round. Mitchell is 4-0 in decisions in his career, but both his decisions in the UFC have been very close. His cardio definitely is not as good as Rosa’s. Mitchell is going to go out there hard & try take out Rosa out in round one.
Charles Rosa
Age: 33
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 69”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Massachusetts
UFC Record: 3-3
Fight Matrix: 57
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +145
Charles Rosa once again is looking to play spoiler as a big underdog. Rosa was able to foil the plans of prospect Manny Bermudez as a sizeable underdog. There was a bit of controversy as he had a hold of the cage while he locked in the armbar. Either way Rosa got the first-round submission & has another big opportunity here. Rosa has had a large portion of his career stagnant due to injury and needs to get going here if he wants to make a run. Rosa is a karate striker on the feet. He has a wide stance & moves in & out very quickly. Rosa is constantly switching stances & giving different looks. Rosa has nice inside, outside low kicks. He will throw oblique kicks to the legs. Rosa will throw outside low kicks to round kick to the body, along with front leg sidekicks to the body. Rosa has a good one-two, and a very nice straight-left & right hand. He will switch stances after he lands the straight usually. Rosa is very fast closing the distance due to his karate style. Rosa will throw a nice left hook, overhand right combination. He can get wild with his punches at times, duck his head and enter range with his hands down. He will wing overhands & hooks in the pocket with power, but it also leaves him susceptible to counters. Rosa has some nice spinning kicks both to the body & head. He will throw some jumping round house kicks & spinning backfists. Rosa is good when he is going backwards, using movement & controlling distance with his counters. If fighters can cut him off & force him to box or catch him with counters as he enters, he struggles. He doesn’t have good boxing in close range and gets very wild & hittable. Rosa doesn’t throw with a ton of power, and he can struggle to back fighters up with his counters. Shane Burgos struggles early on with the movement, but Burgos started just taking shots to give shots & took him out. Rosa got caught in an exchange & then taken out with a flurry of punches. The ref stopped the fight with Rosa still standing, and he protested immediately. Rosa is very tough with a great chin. That was the only time he’s been finished in his career. Rosa has just two KO/TKO’s & isn’t a power striker.
Rosa is good at defending the submission, passing the legs, and getting the back or to the wrestling ride position. Rosa’s top control isn’t the greatest. Fighters are able to sweep him, along with scramble up from bottom. Rosa is relentless with his wrestling in fights & will get multiple takedowns in a round. Rosa does do a good job of catching front chokes in scrambles. He has a lot of different chokes he can pull off such as guillotines, anacondas, darces & Peruvian neckties. It makes it dangerous to shoot it on him. Rosa can be taken down himself. He blitzes in a lot & Kyle Bochniak was able to time some double legs. He also can be taken down in the clinch. Rosa is good off his back. He will throw up submissions immediately to create scrambles to stand up or sweep. Rosa has nice leg locks. He has several armbar submissions in his career along with a triangle choke. Rosa has 8 career submissions. He has never been submitted. Rosa is going to be the bigger guy most likely as he has competed as high as welterweight. One of Rosa’s biggest assets is his will & cardio. He is willing to push through the fatigue state & usually wins round 3. He has strong cardio & just wants it. In this fight, I think he needs to go forward and push a wrestling heavy grinding pace. Be aware of the submissions, but just dog Mitchell out.
Both guys are coming off very impressive submission wins and this should be a fun match with a good amount of grappling. I don’t have a strong lean either way and I don’t think either guy has a big edge on the feet or the ground. I think Mitchell is a fighter on the way up though and Rosa is likely towards the end of his career. For that reason, I will take Mitchell as my pick here, but this is a tough one to get a good read on for me.
This is the toughest one on the card for me. FGTD is -185 which makes me not love this fight, but I think it should have a ton of grappling included and both guys are fairly cheap. I also am not confident enough picking either guy outright so that makes me hesitant to use either side in cash games as well. I think this is a fight where you should just do whatever you want. If you are high on one guy, then be high on them with your lineups and maybe fade the other. If you want to get even exposure to both sides that is fine and fading both sides is fine as well. I will probably use this fight as a lineup filler for my 6th spot based on whose salary fits.
Winner – Bryce Mitchell via Unanimous Decision
Vincente Luque $9,000 vs Niko Price $7,200
Vincente Luque
Age: 28
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 76”
Gym: Combat Club
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 10-3
Fight Matrix: 21
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -280
Vincente Luque needs to bounce back here after a rough outing his last match. He got dominated & beat up very badly by Stephen Thompson. Luque will now be taking a step down in competition & facing an opponent he’s finished before in Niko Price. Luque has taken a lot of damage since that fight though, having absolute wars with Wonderboy, Perry and Barberena. He is well-rounded, but his striking is what is impressive. He is very technical and long for the division, so he uses that by throwing a nice, snappy jab and inside and outside leg kicks. He likes to throw a jab to a straight or jab to an overhand combination and if he lands flush, he has one punch KO power. He is a good athlete and his hands are very fast and loose and it’s hard to see what he is going to throw next. He will attack with jumping knees when he gets opponents close to the cage. He will attack to the body with hooks and does a good job of mixing up his target and coming in on good angles. He has a hands high, come forward style and does a good job of cutting off the cage and making opponents fight off their back foot. When he gets in the pocket, he will unload with overhand rights and straight-lefts. He has a good chin and is willing to take a shot to give one. He can struggle a bit with a fighter who constantly pressures him & can eat his best shots. Luque isn’t used to fighters taking his shots & not going down, and he took some bombs from Barberena when Barberena was able to walk through his strikes. Luque is susceptible to the jab & sometimes he can get into a brawl when it’s unwarranted. Ultimately though, Luque still digs deep & usually finds a way to finish. Luque has 9 KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished with strikes.
Vincente Luque has solid grappling skills. He has good takedown defense and good takedowns against the cage. He will go for singles and doubles against the cage and has decent body locks in the open mat. He has very nice submissions and his chokes are extremely dangerous. He has a nasty darce and anaconda choke. He has good top control and is very active with ground & pound and submissions. He had 6 career submissions & been submitted twice himself. His cardio is very good, and he keeps a heavy pace on fighters. He is a finisher having finished 15 of his 17 wins.
Niko Price
Age: 30
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 76”
Gym: ATT Cape Coral
From: Florida
UFC Record: 6-3-1
Fight Matrix: 47
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +255
Niko Price will be looking to avenge a loss when he faces off for the second time with Vincente Luque. Price was dominated in this fight, hurt on the feet & then submitted. Niko has done some good work since then but has traded wins and losses thus far in his UFC career. Price is coming off yet another highlight reel KO, finishing James Vick with an upkick. Niko Price is a very dangerous striker, but more opportunistic than anything. Price uses a lot of lateral movement, leg kicks & straight-right hands. He likes to be all the way out or all the way in. He will hang around on the outside & wait for his opponents to commit to meet them in the middle with counters or explode in with a shot. Price likes to come over the top with looping left & right hooks. He will throw a left-hand slap into a right hook or right straight. Price has nice round & front kicks to the body & head. Price can be a little awkward when he comes forward. He will hold his hands low, & just doesn’t move the fastest coming forward. In almost every fights he gets tagged with huge shots as he comes forward. He almost accepts he’s going to get hit to give his own shots. In his fight with Tim Means, he was getting pieced up with straights & front kicks. Means got too over aggressive & one hook ended his night. That’s what makes Price so good. He just needs his opponents to make one mistake to close the show. When opponents actually commit to a combination & become stationary, Price will explode with wild hook combinations & can close the distance very quickly. Price likes to grab the Muay Thai plum & finish combinations with knees. Niko Price is a kill or be killed fighter. None of his UFC fights have seen the final bell. Price has 10 KO/TKO’s & insane short-range power. He has only been KO/TKO’d twice in his career, but he has taken a lot of damage and with his style he relies on his chin. He has been rocked or dropped in a lot of his UFC fights, Neal, Means, Alhasson, Brown, Luque, & Morono have all hurt him with shots. He has shown good recoverability, but eventually he will start getting flatlined.
Niko Price is not the greatest defensive wrestler. He has been taken down in many fights including his last two. Tim Means was able to slam him with a double leg, and Geoff Neal was able to take him down multiple times. Geoff Neal was able to get in on body locks, get suplexes and take the back. He eventually postured up & finished the match. Niko Price couldn’t get-up off his back & didn’t show good defensive technique. When he was taken down by Randy Brown, he was able to get a hammerfist knockout off his back, which was insane. Even off his back Price has the power to knock opponents out. Price can be a little sloppy with his entries, especially his double legs. He has good double legs when he times them correctly, but he can shoot them from too far out at times & I feel Luque may be able to reverse. He does a good job of using the singles & double to get his opponent against the cage transitioning to a body lock & getting the takedown. He definitely is better at getting the takedowns in the clinch & against the cage. When he gets opponents down, he likes to work quickly. He has strong G&P and will look for submissions. He has two submissions in the UFC. He will transition to the back mount & look for rear naked chokes. He also has an arm triangle victory over Brandon Thatch. Niko Price has 3 career submissions overall. Price has been submitted once by Vincente Luque, but it was after being dropped. Price has an undying will, and great cardio. He has a screw loose & never thinks he’s out of the fight. Almost all his UFC wins he was getting beat up before coming back to get the finish.
I think Luque has the advantage everywhere here except for maybe power. Niko is a wild guy and he has yet to even see the 3rd round of a UFC fight in 10 outings. These two fought in 2017 and Luque submitted him in the 2nd round. I think Niko is going to need to get a KO here to win this fight, but I don’t see that happening and I think Luque finds another submission in this fight.
Luque will be a core play for me this week and I like him in all formats. He has scored over 100 DK points in 7 of his fights and one of those fights was against Price where he scored 111 with his 2nd round submission. I think he is better everywhere except power and he has one of the higher ceilings on the card. The only real worry with him is being knocked out but I don’t see this fight going to decision so if he wins I think he scores well. Niko is a GPP only play and that is for the KO shot. If he wins, he will score well because it will likely include a knock down and knockout and he is only $7.2k. I will have a few shots on him for hedge purposes in case he gets it by I will be overweight to Luque for sure.
Winner – Vincente Luque via 1st round Submission
Jacare Souza $8,300 vs Uriah Hall $7,900
Ronaldo Souza
Age: 40
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 72”
Gym: XGym
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 9-5
Fight Matrix: 9
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -127
Ronaldo Jacare Souza is in search of answers following back to back losses. He is making the move back down to MW after a split decision loss to Jan Blachowicz at LHW. Souza is getting up there and needs to prove he still has it. He is 40 years old & a lot of people feel he doesn’t have it anymore. If Jacare can’t beat a guy like Uriah Hall it may be time to call it a career. On the feet, Jacare will slowly walk his opponent down and doesn’t use a lot of footwork or lateral movement. He likes to really sit down on his right hook and put a lot of power into it. He will lunge into hooks to close the distance and get the clinch. He will rip to the body with big shots & really attacked the body of Chris Weidman effectively. He will throw front kicks to the body to a left hand or a right hook. He has powerful kicks and even if he lands on the guard he can stun fighters. He knocked Derek Brunson out with a head kick. He is not the fastest guy on the feet, and that can be exploited. In his fight with Chris Weisman, he did an excellent job of bringing very heavy pressure even after getting hurt and throwing his all into his shots. He obviously maintained his power & landed a brutal shot that knocked out Weidman late in round 3. Against Jack Hermansson, he really struggled with the speed & movement and looked a step behind the whole fight. He has a good chin, but he has taken a ton of damage. Jacare has been finished by strikes three times. He has seven knockouts himself.
Jacare is one of the best Jiu-Jitsu fighters in MMA history and actually a pretty strong wrestler. He has strong double legs, especially against the cage and he does a good job of setting it up with his overhand right. He likes to get in the clinch against the cage and he is very strong there. He has nice trips and good judo throws. In his last match, he got caught unable to adjust. He was able to get Jan against the fence, but couldn’t do much there, and still never changed his game plan. Jacare has good takedown defense himself, but it isn’t tested very much as fighters are hesitant to go to the ground with him. Souza has one of the best top games in the sport. He has phenomenal passing ability and will move through opponent’s guards like butter. He likes to move to half guard where he will look for arm triangles and has good control before moving to side control where he has a nasty kimura. He has great back takes and very good back control. If he gets on top his opponents are usually not getting up. Souza has 14 submissions in his career.
Uriah Hall
Age: 35
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 79.5”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: New York
UFC Record: 8-8
Fight Matrix: 16
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +117
Uriah Hall has had a bit of a career resurgence since moving to Fortis MMA. He’s won back to back fights and is coming off one of the best wins of his career in ACJ. Hall’s issues throughout his career have always been mental. He can’t seem to put it all together on game day. This is his final opportunity to make a run & salvage the potential he once had. Now that he is with a great coach and camp this should be his best chance to do so also. If Uriah Hall can get the win over a guy like Jacare, that will move him into a completely different class of fighter. Hall has a phenomenal jab, and great lateral movement. He was fantastic controlling the distance with his jab against ACJ. He has a nice left hook. He has a nasty straight & overhand right, & when he lands clean he can put fighters out cold. He will throw nice inside & outside leg kicks and will attack the body with round kicks. He has a great jumping, spinning back kick to the body or head. He will throw regular spinning back kicks to the body & head as well, and he is not someone fighters want to strike at range with. He is extremely fast, explosive & is always one punch or kick away from changing the fight. He has big power, and when he wins it’s usually by knockout with 13 KO/TKO’s in 18 wins including TUF. He has a good chin, the ability to take punishment, and come back with his own, but he doesn’t have great defense when he gets hurt. He will back up to the cage and stands right in front of opponents trying to throw back. It makes it possible for opponents to tee off on him against the cage. He has been KO/TKO’d 4 times, and 3 times in his last 4 losses.
Hall is not much of a grappler, and definitely prefers a range striking fight. Hall will rarely go for takedowns or look for the clinch. He has good lateral movement, and is dangerous with knees, and kicks making fighters hesitant to shoot in on him from a distance. When he does get taken down, he doesn’t have great defense, and was finished with G&P by Mousasi, and hit with huge shots against Jotko. He will attack with submissions off his back such as armbars and triangles, but overall his submission game is not super dangerous. His submission defense is not bad. He was able to survive with ACJ on his back for over 10 minutes in his last fight. He has also never been submitted in his career. Being on his back or in the clinch is not somewhere he wants to be in this match though. He needs to use his lateral movement to keep the distance and not get backed up. If he can use his jab to setup his right hand and kicks, that’s his best chance to win.
Jacare is towards the end of his career but I think this is still a good matchup for him. Hall is the more dangerous striker at this point in their careers I would say, but I don’t think he is going to have any big edge on the feet, and if he gets taken down, he is in trouble. Jacare is one of the most dangerous BJJ guys in the world and I think if he gets this fight to the mat one time it could be over shortly after. Hall did survive and win against another solid grappler in his last fight and has never been submitted in his career, but I am going to take Jacare to be the first one to do it.
On DraftKings, this is pretty much a Souza or pass fight for me. I won’t have 150 lineups this week, so I have to fade a couple fighters and I think Hall might be one of them. I do think he has a KO shot and if it happens early my night will be over, I just don’t like the chances of that and I think this will be a slower paced striking fight. I think it would be smart of Souza to get the fight to the mat and I like him more for that reason, I just don’t trust that he will do that and that makes me not like him much on DK either. I think if you are high on either guy you can go overweight to them and fade the other, I just see this being a low scoring fight unless there is a finish. FDGTD is only -130 so I don’t want to invest much in that finish but Jacare has the better shot with an ITD line of +170 compared to Hall’s +350.
Winner – Jacare Souza via 2nd round Submission
Carla Esparza $8,400 vs Michelle Waterson $7,800
Carla Esparza
Age: 32
Height: 5’1
Weight: 115
Reach: 63”
Gym: Team Oyama
From: California
UFC Record: 6-4
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -140
Carla Esparza is still hanging around near the top of the SW division. She has won back to back fights and beaten up and comers like Cynthia Calvillo & Alexa Grasso. Esparza has improved a lot since dropping the belt and has had a stellar career overall. She is facing another long-time staple of women’s MMA in Michelle Waterson. Esparza is a much-improved striker. Esparza has much better footwork on the feet. She does a good job of using head movement & feinting her way inside & being in & out. She will circle to the right & walk opponents into heavy leg kicks, straights & right hooks. She will throw an inside leg kick, overhand left combination. Carla will wain forward with hook combinations. She does a good job of faking level changes & throwing body & head shots off it. She is great when she blitzes forward throwing in combination & not getting tired. She will throw superman punches & front kicks. She shouldn’t throw kicks in this fight & just look to box. Esparza has 3 KO/TKO’s. She has been finished by strikes twice in her career.
Carla Esparza is a NCAA college wrestler. She has shown that defeating good Jiu-Jitsu fighters with top control such as Rose Namajunas, & Virna Jandiroba. Esparza has nice double leg takedowns and good top control. She doesn’t have devastating ground & pound, but she will move to dominant positions and control on top. Her takedown defense is not bad, but she can be taken down. She can blitz in & give her hips away at times with her striking. She does do a good job of exiting with knees to the body if she can see the takedown coming. Off her back, I don’t really like Esparza. She doesn’t have good get-ups & can get exhausted having to fend off takedown attempts. She is tough, will never give up, and continues to scramble & try to win the fight even if she’s exhausted or getting dominated. Esparza has taken down all 10 of her UFC opponents, and isn’t a slouch in the grappling department. Esparza does have 5 submissions & has been submitted only once.
Michelle Waterson
Age: 34
Height: 5’3
Weight: 115
Reach: 62”
Gym: Jackson Wink MMA
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 5-3
Fight Matrix: 11
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +130
Michelle Waterson had her three-fight winning streak snapped in her last match. She was beaten down by Joanna Jedrzejczyk but performed valiantly. She got Joanna in some bad positions but was just overmatched. She is getting a totally different matchup here with Carla Esparza. Waterson has really improved her footwork & movement on the feet. She is much less stationary, and circles off the cage better. In this fight, Michelle has to be a moving target. She has to be on the outside moving laterally, giving different angles & not standing in front of Carla. Michelle is much better at controlling distance than in the past also. Michelle uses a snappy jab. Waterson has a nice one-two. She will throw a lot of straight & overhand right shots. Waterson doesn’t like exchanging and being in the pocket. She has started to implement some takedown feints & come up into uppercuts. She has good inside, outside leg kicks. Waterson uses a lot of oblique kicks to the legs. She likes to throw a sidekick to the knee to a left hook combination. She has a very nice straight & overhand right. She uses a lot of front leg sidekicks to the body and head. She will throw some nice round kicks to the body and head. Waterson has very nice spinning heel kicks, along with question mark kicks. Waterson’s boxing is still not very good. She falls into punches at times and is very open to straight punch counters when she throws her overhand right. When Waterson gets hit clean, her defense is not good. She will reach to grab instead of trying to defend, and even turns away at times. Rose Namajunas was able to land a nasty head kick because Michelle turned away from her a bit. Her last 3 opponents all have plodding footwork & weren’t able to cut her off well. Waterson can back up with her lead hand down as well, which I think could get her in trouble. Waterson is going to be the smaller fighter who is at a power disadvantage. She has just three career TKO’s. Waterson has a good chin & is tough, but does get marked up a lot, and I don’t think she has the greatest chin. She has just been TKO’d one time in her career, but she was dropped & submitted by Namajunas.
Michelle Waterson is a good grappler with improved wrestling skills. She is still small for the division and can get out muscled in the clinch. Tecia Torres was able to beat her up & move her around in the clinch. She does look to be improving with her strength. She was able to land some big elbows & knees in the clinch vs Karolina and controlled her against the cage. Waterson does have one of the best hip tosses in the game. She is able to get a lot of these girls with it, including Torres & Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Waterson will also land nice body lock & trip takedowns. In her match with Joanna she was able to get the back & get close on a rear naked choke. Waterson has a very fast, single leg shot, and chains it into a double leg very well. In top position, Waterson is more about control recently. She stays very heavy & works short shots while maintaining position. Waterson can be inactive in top position and has had trouble with submission defense inside opponent’s guards. Cortney Casey was able to put her in some armbar positions and Torres had a close triangle. Waterson is one of those girls who is very hard to submit and can scramble out of very tight chokes & armbars. Waterson has been submitted 3 times. Rose Namajunas was able to submit her in the UFC with a rear naked choke after dropping her. Michelle does like to jump on the back & got a nice rear naked choke after a hip toss vs Paige VanZant. Almost all Waterson’s submissions have been via rear naked choke. Waterson has 9 submissions overall.
This is the toughest fight on the card for me to pick and I expect the line will be very close. If either is a decent sized underdog, they would be my value pick here. I like Waterson on the feet and I like Esparza on the mat. I think this will be a back and forth fight that could go either way, but I think Waterson can keep this fight on the feet longer than Esparza would like so I am going to lean with her as my pick, but I am guessing she will be a slight underdog when the lines open.
On DraftKings, this is probably a full fade for me. I don’t trust either fighter to score well and Fight Goes To Decision is -450. If you want to use either in cash games that is fine, but I think this is a fight to avoid in GPPs unless you just want to play it for ownership purposes.
Winner – Michelle Waterson via Split Decision
Fabricio Werdum $9,300 vs Aleksei Oleinik $6,900
Fabricio Werdum
Age: 42
Height: 6’4
Weight: 249
Reach: 77”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 11-5
Fight Matrix: NR(Inactivity)
Last Fought: 2 Years 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -320
Fabricio Werdum is finally making his return after a two plus year layoff. Werdum failed a USADA test which lead to a lengthy suspension. He is entrenched as a massive favorite here in a grapplers delight. He is facing fellow 42-year-old submission artist Alexey Oleinik in a fun matchup. This is a good test for Werdum. If he is to win, he can get a step up to see if he can compete for the belt, if he loses, well, that would not be good. Werdum is coming off a very bad performance where he was knocked out stiff by Alexander Volkov. When Werdum left no one could mistake him for a super technical striker, but he was dangerous and very aggressive. Werdum likes to start fights off right away with a flying knee or kick. Werdum is much more of a kicker with his striking, but his hands aren’t bad. He has a nice jab, he will double and triple up on & a solid one-two. Werdum likes to throw a double jab or one-two followed by a body kick. Werdum will also throw some punches upstairs and then step in with brutal knees to the body. Werdum’s left kick to the body & head are his most dangerous weapons on the feet. He has a nice teip to the body also. Werdum can charge forward recklessly & has been made to pay for that. His speed isn’t what it once was, and he needs to realize he can’t take as many risks as he did when he was younger. Werdum has been finished by strikes 3 times & twice in his last three losses.
Fabricio Werdum is one of the most accomplished Jiu-Jitsu practitioners in the sport regardless of weight class. Werdum is a two-time Abu Dhabi HW world champion at the black belt level. He holds some of the biggest submission victories not only in Jiu-Jitsu but in MMA as well. Werdum holds wins via submission over arguably the two greatest HWs of all time. Werdum is a tall guy for the division & uses that to his advantage in the clinch. He likes getting the collar tie and leaning his weight and height on opponents to bring more power into his shots and wear them down. He has a very nice Muay Thai plum as well. Werdum will look for clinch takedowns. Werdum also likes the single leg. He will use the single to pull half guard and sweep to the back as well. Werdum on top usually is excellent at passing the guard. He loves taking the back where he has a lot of setups for rear naked chokes or armbars. In his last fight, he struggled a lot with the guard of Volkov, but that had more to do with height than anything. Werdum also welcomes being on his back. He has one of the best guards in MMA history. He will immediately attack sweeps, submissions, and has finished some of the best of all time off his back. You always have to mind your P’s & Q’s when fighting Werdum, he is a very tricky guy. He will act hurt and flop down, and then submit you. Werdum has 11 career submissions. He has never been subbed. It will be interesting to see how he comes back. I will say his cardio was starting to fail him with age, and that was a couple years ago with a little help he will no longer have. Werdum is still an all-time great though & I expect him to perform.
Alexey Oleinik
Age: 42
Height: 6’1
Weight: 238
Reach: 80”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Russia
UFC Record: 7-4
Fight Matrix: 17
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +290
Alexey Oleinik earned yet another submission victory in his last match. Alexey was the underdog as usual, but really dominated Maurice Greene before getting the finish. Oleinik has actually performed fairly well against these pride HW legends. Oleinik was able to defeat and finish both Mirko Cro Cop & Mark Hunt. He did lose to Overeem but had early success. This is another chance for him to get a marquee win on his ledger. He has been asking for this fight for a long time, so I imagine he will be ready to go here. Alexey is a bit of a plodder on the feet who slowly walks fighters down with his hands a bit low, so he can come over the top with long, casting hooks with both arms. He will walk through opponent’s shots to land his own overhand right hook or left hand. He has big power in his overhand right, as he dropped Travis Browne with it and KO’d Jared Rosholt. He will work into the clinch and then land nice punches to the body while looking for body lock takedowns. He is very long so he can throw his casting hooks from a distance and get a hold of fighters pretty quickly. He has a nice uppercut and will throw a solid leg kick as well. He throws everything with full power. Oleinik has a strong chin also & can take a lot of punishment. He has been finished by strikes seven times but is still very durable. Oleinik has 8 KO/TKO wins.
Alexey Oleinik is one of the best heavyweight Jiu-Jitsu practitioners in MMA history, he has 46 submission victories and is very unorthodox with his attacks having landed 10 Ezekiel chokes. He has gotten an Ezekiel choke from being fully mounted against Viktor Pesta in the UFC. You will see him get that grip and even pull fighters on top of him with it from the standing clinch position. He is very comfortable both off his back and on top. He has a good guard and will trap a wrist and attack with triangles and armbars. He does a good job of getting back up out of side control. He has nice sweeps and was able to sweep Travis Browne, get a single leg and ultimately take the back and choke him out. He has an amazing squeeze and gets people to tap very quickly. He has finished his last 15 wins. He ducks his head when he strikes sometimes and can get timed with knees and uppercuts. He is also one of the slowest heavyweights in the division, so in space for long periods of time he gets lit up. He needs to close the distance and make it an ugly brawl on the feet to have a chance at victory.
These are the two best submission artists in the Heavyweight division and that is what makes this a very interesting fight for me. I really hope we see this fight hit the mat because I would love to see a grappling match between these two. I think Werdum is miles ahead on the feet though and I would pick him in a BJJ match as well, so I have to lean with him as the pick here, but we haven’t seen him in 2 years and he was knocked out in his last outing.
Werdum is probably going to be a core play for me this week just because I think he dominates this fight everywhere. I don’t love his price tag at $9.2k but I think he can get there so I will look to be overweight. If Oleinik wins it will be by finish and that will score well so if you want to use him in GPPs that is totally fine. I just don’t see me having more than 1-2 LUs with him so it’s mostly Werdum or pass for me and I like him in all formats. He has a -135 ITD line which is one of the best on his card, so I think he could outscore guys like Ngannou and Luque who I expect to be higher owned.
Winner – Fabricio Werdum via 2nd round (T)KO
Anthony Pettis $8,200 vs Donald Cerrone $8,000
Anthony Pettis
Age: 33
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Roufusport MMA
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 9-9
Fight Matrix: 12(LW)
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -135
Anthony Pettis needs to get a win here, and he has a good chance facing a former foe in Donald Cerrone. Both Pettis and Cowboy have seen their better days, but the loser will really be in a bad position. Pettis needs to put up or shut up here. Anthony Pettis is still one of the premier range strikers in the UFC. He has extremely fast kicks and his left body kick is one of the nastiest body kicks in MMA history. He has really nice leg kicks which he used to chop down Wonderboy. He is fast and likes to switch stances and use the opposite stance of his opponent, so he can land those body kicks. He uses a lot of feints and fakes and doesn’t really throw a lot of volume, but keeps fighters guessing and off balance and will land big, hard shots. He has a nice, check left hook and a good straight-right hand. He has gotten better at using lateral movement and running opponents into his punches. He will need to have that lateral movement on point for this fight. He will open up and start to throw some crazy kicks at times such as jumping, spinning heel kicks, jumping roundhouse kicks, kicks off the cage etc. When fighters give him space and let him strike, he is elite. When fighters pressure him, jam his kicks and get him moving backwards, he is much less effective. Pettis has to stay technical here, move, angle, chop the legs, body & then go up top. Pettis has 11 KO/TKO’s. His durability used to be excellent, but it seems to be fading a bit. He wasn’t finished in his first 24 fights, but in his last 6 he’s been finished 3 times. He has only been TKO’d in action one time & didn’t answer the bell for round 3 against Ferguson.
Anthony Pettis is a very underrated Jiu-Jitsu player. He isn’t the best or most active wrestler & gets most of his dubs off his back. Pettis struggles with letting guys push him against the cage and get in on his legs, his wrestling is very suspect, and he struggles to stop himself from being held against the cage and being taken down with chain wrestling. When he is taken down, he doesn’t get-up very well, but his Jiu-Jitsu from his guard is straight nasty. He does a great job of controlling the wrist and then attacking with triangles. He throws his legs up extremely fast, and he will also attack with a slick guillotine and armbar as well. He has good kimuras. He has very good sweeps himself and will get top position but doesn’t have an amazing top game, a lot of the times he will just get back up. In his last match, Anthony Pettis got out grappled thoroughly by Carlos Diego Ferreira. This fight he likely will be at a disadvantage if it hits the mat as well. He got his back taken & was submitted vs Ferreira. Pettis has 7 submissions & been submitted now twice.
Donald Cerrone
Age: 37
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: BMF Ranch
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 23-11
Fight Matrix: 20
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: +125
Donald Cerrone is set to return following that dismal performance vs Conor McGregor his last time out. He needs to win this time in order to regain some respect. Donald Cowboy Cerrone is a nasty Muay Thai striker, and his highlight reel of finishes shows that. Cerrone throws vicious kicks, beating up opponent’s legs first and then attacking the body and head. He has the most head kick knockouts in UFC history. He has okay hands, but in boxing range he seems like he is nowhere near as comfortable as kicking range. He doesn’t have tight punching, or the greatest defense and he can be exploited in boxing range. He does have a nice, check left hook in the pocket, and he has gotten better at dealing with pressure fighters. He throws a nice, front leg sidekick and stomp kick to the leg. He throws a stabbing front kick to the body and at distance really beats up all parts of the body. He uses takedowns to almost disguise a step-in knee at times and it’s beautiful. He throws a step-in knee after he gets denied the shot and even follows with a head kick to close the combination. If Cerrone can find his rhythm and range, fighters are usually screwed. When he is going forward, he is one of the nastiest strikers in the division. Cerrone has obviously taken a lot of damage recently, and he cannot get hit clean against a knockout artist like Pettis. Cerrone has 10 KO/TKO’s all in the UFC, and 5 of his last 6 wins have been KO/TKO finishes. He has been finished with strikes 7 times himself, including in his last fight just over 4 months ago.
Cerrone has long been an underrated grappler. He has always been very dangerous with his Jiu-Jitsu, but he has improved his wrestling immensely in recent years. Cerrone has gotten much more wrestling heavy in recent fights, and it’s a smart thing to do since he is getting up there in age. Cerrone has good timing on double leg shots and he also has good body lock takedowns. On top, Cerrone is good, he has strong top control, and he likes to get to the back. He gets most of his submissions after he stuns and drops his opponent. He is very good at jumping on the back and locking in the rear naked choke. He has good takedown defense himself and is hard to hold down. Off his back, he is very dangerous. He has nasty triangles, armbars to go along with very nice sweeps. He had that nasty armbar over Mike Perry last year. He does a great job of getting omaplata sweeps in the guard and will reverse top position. If anyone is to try to get it to the ground, I think it will be Donald. I could see him shooting a double leg or two if the pressure starts becoming too much. He has 17 submissions in his career and has been submitted just one time.
These two fought back in 2013 and Pettis won with a 1st round kick to the body KO. Now they are both towards the end of their careers and coming off multiple losses. I still think this will be a great fight and it could even end like their last one did. I think Cerrone is still the better all-around fighter, but he isn’t as durable as he used to be, so I think he is more likely to be finished as well. If this fight ends ITD, I think Pettis is the winner. If this goes all 3 rounds, I like Cowboy to get his hand raised.
I love this fight because it is the mid-range fight of the week and it has a -170 FDGTD line. I think even if this fight goes to a decision it will be action packed and either guy could still be on the optimal with a decision win. However, if either guy gets a finish here I think there is a decent chance they are on the top lineup at their $8.2k and $8k salaries. Cowboy is my preferred play here because he is my pick to win and I think he has a higher ceiling in a decision. I also think he has a lower floor though and Pettis has the better shot of winning in round 1. I will take more of a stand here and get more exposure to Cowboy, but I do want a few lineups with Pettis and my favorite 1 or 2 I will just duplicate and use Cowboy there as well. I think this will be an important fight for GPPs but if you want to get away from it in cash games, I think that is fine. My preferred play there as well would be Cowboy though and I will be hoping he gets his revenge in this fight.
Winner – Donald Cerrone via Unanimous Decision
Greg Hardy $8,600 vs Yorgan De Castro $7,600
Greg Hardy
Age: 31
Height: 6’5
Weight: 265
Reach: 80.5”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Florida
UFC Record: 2-2-1
Fight Matrix: 103
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -190
Greg Hardy suffered his second loss in the UFC octagon in his match. It didn’t drop him too far in the rankings though, as he took a risk, stepped up on short notice and took on a top 10 opponent. Hardy didn’t do much but survived and lost a decision. He is getting a step down in competition once again here & fighting someone with similar experience to him. Greg Hardy is a great athlete, very aggressive and dangerous. Five of Hardy’s wins have ended quickly in round one. Greg Hardy’s striking look much improved in his last fight. He was using much more lateral movement & good head movement. He was slipping just out of the way of punches. Hardy has very fast hand speed. He has a nasty jab & left hook, and a blazing one-two. He will throw some brutal low kicks & nasty uppercuts. Hardy’s straight-right hand vs Sosoli was a piston. He has nasty round kicks to the body. He was mixing in high kicks, superman punches, and I think he’s a very dangerous striker. In his match with Volkov, he made it competitive. He landed some decent leaping left hooks. He has one punch power and is extremely fast. Hardy will still lean back with his chin high at times, but he is good at pull countering. His defense can look a little suspect at times. He has to respect the speed and power of Yorgan. He has eaten some big shots and kept coming and looks as if he has a strong chin. He has 5 KO/TKO’s.
Greg Hardy likes to get his work done with the hands but is clearly working on his grappling. He shot in on a nicely timed double leg on Volkov & had some control time against the cage. In this fight, I feel holding De Castro against the cage, and looking for a takedown or two would be a good game plan. If he can get on top of De Castro, he has a much bigger frame and it could be trouble. Hardy obviously is a great athlete with fast hips, good balance & base. When fighters shoot takedowns on him, he is good at sprawling & hammering punches into his opponent’s face. Hardy has a nice whizzer he will use to counter takedowns. Hardy has short range power & has put multiple fighters out with hammerfists & short punches as they try to get in on his legs or in the clinch. In his fight with Allen Crowder, he did get a knee caught, and taken down. Hardy didn’t look very knowledgeable off his back. He stayed calm but allowed Crowder to transition easily & even get the crucifix position. Hardy is very explosive & uses his athleticism to buck out of bad positions but didn’t show great technique on bottom. Hardy had some time in top position in that fight as well. He was able to show good submission defense, pass the legs, and almost got to side control. He didn’t show good top control and allowed Crowder to belly down & get-up. In Hardy’s match with Juan Adams, he sprawled on a single leg, and landed about 30 unanswered shots before the fight was stopped. Adams didn’t move at all & basically just gave him the win. I don’t think Hardy will have to worry about takedowns in this fight. Hardy does slow down pretty significantly as fights go on, but he is finally getting some third-round experience. That should help him moving forward.
Yorgan De Castro
Age: 32
Height: 5’11
Weight: 265
Reach: 74”
Gym: Lauzon MMA
From: Cape Verde
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 144
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: +175
Yorgan De Castro is looking to build on his wicked UFC debut. De Castro decapitated Justin Tafa in a knockout of the year candidate. He will be looking to rekindle some of that magic once again here. De Castro is an odd guy, because he’s really not that big. Earlier in his career he did the whole weight cutting thing fighting at 205, and even 225, but didn’t look as fast or explosive. Now he’s decided to go the other way, he’s put on some size, even if it’s a lot of belly fat and tipped the scales at 265 his last match. With the extra weight De Castro is still able to move the same way he did when he was lighter which is a distinct advantage at heavyweight. De Castro is very fast, light on his feet and has good movement. He likes to walk opponents into hooks and has heavy low kicks. In his fight on the DWCS he ended it with a nasty low kick. He can go to the well too much on them and get countered. De Castro has a powerful, right hook and straight. He will walk opponents in to overhand right, left hook combinations. In his last match, he caught his opponent as he was coming in with a perfect right hook and slept him. He definitely has one punch power. De Castro has a pretty nice switch kick to the body and head. He will look for flying knees. He’s a very athletic guy for his size. In some of his fights though, I just am not impressed with his defense or fight IQ. He will load up on shots and get countered. He doesn’t defend kicks well, and also can clinch or throw low kicks after hurting his opponent. In his fight with Ras Hylton, I didn’t like how he looked at all. He is definitely improving but this is a good test for him, another athletic guy who is also much bigger than him. De Castro has finished 4 of his five wins by KO/TKO.
Yorgan De Castro is not a grappler, but he will look to close the distance and clinch against the cage. He doesn’t have great technique or control there & I wouldn’t advise that in this fight. De Castro showed good distance control when he fought Alton Meeks. He was able to move, land, and came close to landing some flying knees when Meeks entered on takedowns. He was taken down a couple times but showed good get-ups against the cage. This was an improvement from previous fights where he was controlled and beat up on the mat. He hasn’t fought great fighters since then though. The best fighter he probably fought was William Knight in the amateurs who was able to take him down and dominate him. This fight will likely be a striking battle though. De Castro’s cardio is also a question mark. He has only been out of round one two times, and I wasn’t able to find those fights.
Either guy could end this fight with one punch and I don’t expect to see a decision in this one. I think Hardy is the more athletic fighter and might have an edge in this striking if this fight plays out over 3-rounds and maybe more likely to land the big KO on the feet. I think de Castro would have the edge on the ground if he can get it there and I could see him getting a GNP finish if he can. I think this fight really just comes down to who lands the big punch, and at these odds, I would rather take the underdog, so I will take de Castro as my pick.
This is similar to the next fight for me where either guy could get an early KO and break the slate, but they could also be fearful of the others power and have a boring 3-round fight. If that happens, neither guy is on the optimal. I also think we are relying on a KO from either guy to be on the optimal because at their price tags I don’t see them getting there in a decision. I am guessing I will be 15-25% on both guys here but Castro is my preferred play because I think he will be much lower owned and he is cheaper. I don’t like either side for cash game and if you feel good about one side then I think going overweight on that guy is fine here. I will mostly be hoping that that this fight goes the distance, but I will have shots on both guys here in case one goes to sleep early.
Winner – Yorgan de Castro via 3rd round (T)KO
Calvin Kattar $8,900 vs Jeremy Stephens $7,300
Calvin Kattar
Age: 32
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 72”
Gym: 617 Fight Sports
From: Massachusetts
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 12
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -245
Calvin Kattar is an extremely sharp boxer. He maintains range extremely well with his punches. He has a nasty jab, one of the best jabs in the UFC. He will double & triple up on the jab and has a great one-two. He has a nice jab, overhand right, and a sick left hook. He has a very nice rear uppercut. He will explode into range with quick hook & uppercut combinations. He will rip the body with hooks as well. He will pull counter with his punches very well and is very accurate. When he can find his range, he puts his punches together very well, and can put opponent’s lights outs. He doesn’t throw many kicks, but he will throw the occasional leg kick, and has nice front kicks. He will go to the body & head with them. He has good footwork & is hard to hit. In his fight with Moicano, he struggled with Moicano’s kicks & distance. Kattar is heavy on his lead leg & had it chewed up in that match. Moicano was able to push him back by countering Kattar’s jabs with combinations. Kattar did show better ability to pull his leg back and defend low kicks in recent fights. Kattar is dangerous & has 8 KO/TKO’s, including 2 in the UFC. He is very durable & has never been finished by strikes in his career.
Kattar isn’t a very active grappler, and definitely prefers to box. He doesn’t look to clinch very much, but he will occasionally use well timed takedowns. He has a solid, blast double leg, and will use it to break the rhythm of a fight. He will shoot when he gets opponents backed against the cage. He isn’t overly dangerous in top position, and I highly doubt he will want to take down Stephens. Kattar has very good distance control & footwork, making it hard to get in on his legs to begin with. His takedown defense is actually very good. He will attack with a front choke to counter takedowns, and snap opponents down. He was able to use it to take top position vs Andre Fili. He has fast hips & a nice sprawl. He was taken down by Chris Fishgold one time, but quickly jumped back to his feet. Kattar’s lone finish loss came via submission. Kattar only has 3 submission victories & it would be shocking to see him get one here.
Jeremy Stephens
Age: 33
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 71”
Gym: Alliance MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 15-16-1
Fight Matrix: 13
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 1-3-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +225
Jeremy Stephens is a seek & destroy type of fighter. He has arguably the most power in the division & is extremely durable. He is constantly marching opponents down and switching stances to try to cut off the cage. He will mix in heavy low kicks to try to slow fighter’s movement as well. He has an excellent jab. He will double jab his way into range for combinations. He has a nasty double jab two & double jab, overhand right. He will attack the body with those same combinations as well. He likes to close the distance with straight punch flurries to the body & then go to the head. He will fake the body shots & throw heavy uppercuts. He has a nice left hook, overhand right combination. He has good head movement. He will slip the jab and come over the top with heavy right hooks & overhand rights. He is a bruiser & willing to sit in the pocket & take one to give one. You saw this very notably in a recent main event of his. He was dropped in an exchange vs Josh Emmett, but proceeded to get-up off the canvas, to drop & knockout Josh Emmett brutally. He will use spinning backfists to catch opponents circling off the cage. I expect his whole game plan in this fight to be predicated on making Kattar go backwards, working low kicks and trying to force a brawl. When Stephens gets opponents stationary against the cage, that’s where he’s dangerous & dynamic. He will dig heavy shots to the body & come over the top with one shot knockout punches. He will throw nasty flying knees he has flat lined opponents with. He also throws nice high kicks & has knockouts with those as well. In this fight, I see him trying to use his hands & leg kicks mostly, walk Kattar down, make him fight off the back foot and turn up with combinations when he cuts him off. Stephens can overextend at times & fall in love with his power. His forward pressure style also always gives him the chance to walk into something. His chin has been granite over his career, but he was finished recently due to a body shot vs Jose Aldo. Maybe it’s a good idea for Kattar to target the body with shots & try to take him out that way. Stephens has one punch knockout power & 19 career KO/TKO’s. He has a great chin & is very durable. He has been finished KO/TKO just twice in his career.
Jeremy Stephens is probably going to be the better wrestler in this matchup. I don’t see him using a game plan of offensive wrestling, but I don’t expect him to have to worry about being taken down. Zabit was able to win round two vs Stephens by taking him down & taking his back. Stephens was able to defend the takedowns initially & get back to his feet, but Magomedsharipov is very long & has excellent riding ability with his wrestling. Stephens made Zabit work to get the takedown & didn’t take a ton of damage on the ground. I do think Zabit needed the wrestling to rest, because he looked tired late in round 3. If Kattar is gassing due to the forward pressure, I don’t think he has the option to grapple. Jeremy Stephens will look for cage control or double leg takedowns if he’s getting out classed on the feet. In his last match, he was able to dominate the second half of his fight with grappling. One of the most dangerous aspects of Stephens game though, is his ground & pound. If he drops a fighter or gets on top somehow, he will go crazy with ruthless ground & pound. He will rain down brutal hammerfists & elbows and put fighters out cold. He knocked Choi out with nasty ground & pound and broke several bones in the face of Josh Emmett. He only has two submissions. When he takes opponents down, he wants to bash their face in. Stephens has been submitted three times but those were all very long ago. He always comes in great shape & with his back against the wall, but he will be ready to go.
I like Kattar here. I think he is the more technical striker and I see him using his boxing and leg kicks to pick Stephens apart over the course of 3-rounds. Stephens can knock out anybody, but I think it is KO or bust for him in this fight and I will side with him not getting it and losing a unanimous decision here.
Kattar is my preferred play here because he has more ways to win and I do like him to get his hand raised. However, I am not sure how high his ceiling is, so I don’t think I will have a ton of exposure to him in GPPs. I think he is a fine cash game play, but he does carry a low floor because of Stephen’s power. I don’t see Kattar being very highly owned though because of the people priced around him so I could still see me being overweight to the field if I get him in 20% of my lineups. I like him as a pivot away from Ngannou and Luque who will be way higher owned, but I think him scoring ~70 points is the most realistic outcome here. If Stephens can get the KO, then he has a great shot of being on the optimal at his price tag but I think he will be a bit over owned this week for that reason, so I will look to go underweight on him myself.
Winner – Calvin Kattar via Unanimous Decision
Francis Ngannou $9,100 vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik $7,100
Francis Ngannou
Age: 33
Height: 6’4
Weight: 255
Reach: 83”
Gym: Xtreme Couture MMA
From: Cameroon
UFC Record: 9-2
Fight Matrix: 3
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -275
Francis Ngannou will continue to try to devastate the UFC HW division in his quest for a second title fight. He has been on a legends ass whooping recently destroying Cain Velasquez & Junior Dos Santos very quickly. Early finishes have become Ngannou’s MO. Ngannou’s last seven wins have been first round finishes. Ngannou usually struggles if he can’t find that finish. He is 0-3 in decisions in his career. Ngannou is a scary dude and probably the most powerful, one-shot striker in UFC history. He isn’t extremely technical, but he is patient, and does a good job of picking his shots. He likes to walk fighters down and wait for them to throw so he can counter. He will throw out a jab, and actually uses it from both stances. He likes to slip punches in close range, and counter with huge hooks and uppercuts. He does an excellent job of timing his counter right, uppercut, and it is one of the most devastating punches in UFC history. He likes to throw a right or left hook to uppercut combination. He will occasionally throw leg and body kicks, and his kicks are very powerful. Fighters should probably look to strike from the outside against Ngannou, low kick, throw jabs and move. Ngannou has a great chin and took some massive shots from Stipe Miocic and seemed unfazed. He has never been finished with strikes. Obviously, power is the name of the game for Francis Ngannou, and he has 9 KO/TKO wins.
Ngannou is a poor grappler, and that was really exposed in his Stipe Miocic fight. He isn’t an offensive wrestler, and I have yet to see him attempt a takedown or try to initiate the clinch in the UFC. In the clinch, Ngannou’s pure physicality makes him hard to deal with. He is extremely strong and does a good job of reversing position when opponents jam him against the cage, and land shots of his own. He has pretty solid initial takedown defense. He has a good overhook he uses to yank up his opponent, and they have to be weary of the uppercut whenever they’re looking to get him down. Ngannou isn’t terrible off his back. He does a good job of digging underhooks and exploding back to his feet, as well as using a modified version of the butterfly guard to offset the balance of his opponent and stand back up. Ngannou has some odd submissions in his career. He had a nasty kimura on Anthony Hamilton, literally ripping him to the ground with it in the clinch and a nasty, straight armbar from mount in another fight I saw. He has 3 career submissions, and never been submitted himself. He gasses out very badly, and once he’s tired his bottom game goes out the window, and he can be taken down easily. In this fight, he isn’t going to have to worry about grappling at all. He should be comfortable and ready to go in a kickboxing type match.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Age: 32
Height: 6’4
Weight: 250
Reach: 78”
Gym: Team Bigi Boy
From: Suriname
UFC Record: 4-0
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W10
Betting Odds: +250
Jairzinho Rozenstruik will be looking to deliver after receiving the fight he asked for in Francis Ngannou. He called his shot and he got it, and now with a win he likely would be the next in line for the title. Rozenstruik is undefeated & coming off the biggest name victory of his career defeating Alistair Overeem in the dying seconds. To be fair, he was losing almost the entirety of that fight prior to the finish. Rozenstruik is very confident though, and a knockout artist. He most definitely cannot be taken lightly. Rozenstruik was training at ATT for this fight, but in reality, how much would that help in this time? Jairzinho has phenomenal stand up. He has a sick jab, one of the best jabs in the UFC. We have seen him essentially finish two people with jabs in the octagon. He has heavy inside, outside leg kicks & a great jab. He has good power in his hands. He will throw a jab, right hook, or a jab, overhand right combination. He has a powerful, counter left hook. He has a nice uppercut, left hook. He is fleet of foot for a big man and can close distance quickly. He will throw occasional head kicks & flying knees. He will throw front kicks to the face also. Jairzinho likes to throw jab or straight-right hands to head kick combinations. He is very explosive in close range. Jairzinho can allow opponents to control the center, and back himself towards the cage. He will look to stand stationary & try to catch opponents with left hooks or uppercuts as they come inside. Jairzinho landed a left hook, right uppercut to a head kick combination that put Junior Albini out in his UFC debut. He followed that up dropping Allen Crowder with a jab & knocked out Arlovski with one punch. He proved he can go five rounds and still have power in his last fight finishing Overeem in the dying seconds. Jairzinho has 8 knockouts in 9 wins and has never been finished by strikes.
Rozenstruik’s grappling is questionable. His takedown defense is not good. He was taken down multiple times in round one by Junior Albini. Albini was able to land a single & body lock takedown. Albini was able to pass his guard into side control. He attacked with a kimura & even took the back. Jairzinho was able to turn in & take top position when Albini took his back. Against Sergey Kovalev, he was taken down in round 2 with a double leg & couldn’t get-up. Kovalev was able to land the takedown directly into side control. Kovalev was able to land some nice elbows & knees to the body. He did deny Kovalev from taking the mount, but he couldn’t stand up. He was controlled the entirety of the round. In round 3 though, he was able to deny a takedown attempt, and land a body lock of his own. Jairzinho looked heavy in top position, postured and rained down some big elbows. Jairzinho Rozenstruik allows fighters to clinch up with him against the cage far too easily. He puts himself there by himself & Albini was able to put him against the cage with double underhooks several times. He can be too worried about takedown defense after he’s taken down and not let his hands go. He does show good patience and ability to stay composed when taken down. He won’t make any dumb moves to get finished & is defensively sound. Jairzinho isn’t a threat on the mat offensively. He has no submissions. He needs to avoid going to the mat. Rozenstruik does fight at a smart pace & will not gas.
It only takes one shot from either of these guys to end the fight. Ngannou may be the scariest man alive and has more power but Rozenstruik is the more well-rounded striker and could win a striking decision here or get a KO of his own. I think Ngannou could even look for takedowns in this spot and look for a GNP finish or a submission. I think the most likely outcome here is that Ngannou gets a KO finish so that is what I am taking as my pick.
This is a tricky one for me to figure out how I want to attack it. Obviously either guy could win with a round 1 KO and they have a good chance of being on the optimal if that happens. I want exposure to both for that reason as well. I think Ngannou is probably going to be pretty highly owned though and I don’t know that I want to go overweight to the field when he has to get a 1st round KO to be on that optimal lineup. It is scary to fade or go underweight, but I think I will be taking the underweight approach myself. Rozenstruik is more interesting to me because he will be lower owned, and I think the longer this fight goes the better it will be for him. Any KO from him could put him on the nuts so we aren’t reliant of it being in round 1 and he is probably the better striker of the two and he has crazy power as well. I think I want to be overweight to him just for ownership purposes. I don’t love either guy in cash games though, so this is mostly a GPP fight for me and I could see it being a boring 3-round fight, so I probably want half of my lineups to not include either guy.
Winner – Francis Ngannou via 1st round (T)KO
Henry Cejudo $8,800 vs Dominick Cruz $7,400
Henry Cejudo
Age: 33
Height: 5’4
Weight: 135
Reach: 67.5”
Gym: Fight Ready MMA
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 9-2
Fight Matrix: 1
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -220
Henry Cejudo is finally getting back in the cage after some injuries and bad luck plagued him. Cejudo was originally scheduled to fight in Brazil against Jose Aldo, but that has all changed now. Cejudo will now be facing Dominick Cruz in Florida. Cejudo has been calling out the big-name legends of the division & is getting what he wants here. He is set to face, who is in my opinion, the best BW of all time in Dominick Cruz. Defeating Cruz, even an older Cruz is a huge feather in the cap for Cejudo. On the feet in this fight, I think Henry should look to attack the body, and throw a lot of kicks. Henry has a very nice leg and body kick. Dominick is very hard to hit to the head, he has some of the best footwork and head movement in MMA history, and along with that he is a lot taller than Henry. I think Henry is really going to struggle to hit Cruz to the head unless he can back him up or start really landing effectively to the body. Henry does have an excellent jab and took over the fight in his last match walking his opponent down and throwing the straight. He landed that over and over walking him down, but Moraes was very tired. Henry is very fast and dangerous closing the distance with hooks inside and packs power. If he can get Dom to trade with him or just time a right hook, he definitely could rock him. I think the only time Henry should really open up with combos is when he has Dom against or near the cage. Henry can bite to feints a lot and gets flat footed at times. That’s something he can’t do here. He can’t get frustrated and wing or he will get outclassed. To me, Cruz is way smoother on the feet, has much better footwork and doesn’t load as much. He is clearly the better, technical striker, but Henry has that doggedness and power and if he can continue to land body kicks, low kicks and ultimately back up Cruz, he could land a big shot that closes the show.
Everyone talks about Henry’s gold medal, and he is an elite wrestler. His single and double leg shots are absolutely sick, and he has an excellent cradle and front head lock he uses to control opponents. In his match with Demetrius Johnson, he was able to control him on the mat inside of Johnson’s full guard. Against Dom Cruz though, I just don’t see him being able to control Cruz on the mat or vice versa. Both guys are such incredible scramblers. I don’t think Dom will be very worried about giving his back or a bad position to stand up because Henry isn’t a big submission threat. Cruz is the guy who is more dangerous in top position in my opinion especially if he can take the back. Henry has never earned a submission and usually when he’s taking opponents down it’s more about control or changing it up. I do think Henry should try to time takedowns and just get Dom thinking about them. If he can successfully land a couple he then can maybe start to effectively feint the takedowns to land shots. In his last match, he did land some heavy elbows from half guard, and finished Moraes off with ground & pound. Cejudo’s cardio and will to win is top notch, him and Cruz have elite cardio mental toughness and won’t quit.
Dominick Cruz
Age: 35
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Alliance MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 5-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 3 years 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +200
Dom Cruz is back once again to try to do the unthinkable. He already did it once, winning the belt after having only one fight in five years prior. Injuries have plagued Cruz’s career, but when he gets in the cage, he’s brilliant. Cruz is extremely well-rounded, has beaten The Who’s who of the division, and largely dominated. Cruz has beaten the old guard with Uriah Faber, and the new breed in TJ Dillashaw. He holds a victory over Demetrius Johnson, and two victories over Joseph Benavidez, both of whom have a win over Henry Cejudo. He is going up against the odds once again here as he hasn’t fought in 3.5 years. Cruz is now 35 years old as well, and it will be interesting to see if he can keep pulling this off. Cruz is one of the best strikers in UFC history. He revolutionized the game with his feints, & funky footwork. He is constantly false starting, switching stances and giving different looks. Cruz almost never stays in the pocket, and if he does it isn’t for long. He likes to throw long jabs, and nice kicks. He has a heavy low kick, and a very nice, left high kick. Cruz is excellent at darting in & out of range, landing long combinations and exiting without getting hit. He likes to throw right hands in combination followed by low kicks a lot. Whenever Cruz lands, he is angling off, using head movement, footwork, and just getting out of the way of attacks. He is a master at it. Cruz also likes to throw wide, looping counters from the outside that rock fighters. He dropped Cody Garbrandt with this punch. Cruz can be susceptible to low kicks, and sometimes when he gets hit he isn’t set and gets rocked. He was hurt on several occasions vs Cody Garbrandt. Cruz has an iron chin though and has never been finished by strikes. His ability to recover after being hurt is uncanny. Cruz isn’t a big power puncher and known for decisions. Cruz has 8 KO/TKO victories.
Dominick Cruz is an exceptional MMA grappler. His timing on his shots are almost perfect. Cruz has one of the best double legs the sport has ever seen. Cruz isn’t a guy who usually grinds for takedowns or uses cage work, but we’ve seen him do that as well. In his fight with Demetrius Johnson, he threw him around in the clinch and dominated him. When Cruz gets takedowns, he isn’t really a finisher with Jiu-Jitsu. He likes to control and dominate position. Cruz has just one submission victory in his career. Cruz’s defensive wrestling and scrambling ability is top notch also. When he is taken down on rare occasion, he pops right back to his feet. Cruz has been submitted one time. That was many years ago when he was just 21 years old. Cruz has amazing cardio & has never lost due to fatigue. I think he is impossible to break mentally. This is going to be an epic fight that comes down to who is the better man on the night.
This is a tough one to call because Cruz hasn’t fought since 2016 so we don’t know what to expect from him. Since that time, Cejudo has won belts in the 125 and the 135 lb divisions and looking like he is in his prime. With Cruz now being 35 years old coming off multiple different injuries, I have to think he has slowed down a bit and won’t be the same Cruz of old. He is still one of the best 135 lb fighters of all-time and I think this will be a pretty close fight. I have to lean with Cejudo though just because of the unknowns but I would not lay over -200 here on him so I would say at this current line it is a dog or pass fight.
With 2 title fights on the card you have to think all 4 of those fighters will be very popular and for good reason. At their price tags it will be hard for them to not be on the optimal lineup with 5 rounds and I will be mixing my exposure around for sure. I do think this is the title fight we can get away from a bit to be more contrarian though. With Cruz being so hard to hit, I could see Cejudo getting a win and not being on the optimal lineup here. He only scored 77 DK points in his 5-round title fight with DJ and I could see the same thing happening here. If he scores 77 points and is highly owned, he will kill off a good portion of the fields chance at that $200k. I do plan on being underweight to him for this reason, but he could obviously win early and ruin my night as well at $8.8k. Cruz on the other hand has never scored less than 100 DK points in a win and at $7.4k I think he would be a lock for the nuts lineup if he can get the win. I am not confident that happens at all, but he is my preferred play for that reason. I also want a handful of lineups where I just fade this fight in general and hope for that low scoring Cejudo win. I think you can stack this fight in cash games, but I think it would be a double stack if that is the case because the main event is way better for stacking. I do like Cruz a lot for cash games though because I think he carries a solid floor in a loss and I like his price tag. If you really want to be contrarian in GPPs I think you could stack this fight instead of the main event and it will have much less ownership as a whole and as a stack. I don’t think I will have the balls to do that myself but could be a sneaky way of being contrarian with a 5-round fight.
Winner – Henry Cejudo via Unanimous Decision
Tony Ferguson $8,700 vs Justin Gaethje $7,500
Tony Ferguson
Age: 36
Height: 5’11
Weight: 155
Reach: 76”
Gym: Team El Cucuy
From: California
UFC Record: 15-1
Fight Matrix: 2
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W12
Betting Odds: -174
After all the craziness that has gone down we are hopefully finally going to see Tony Ferguson compete. The UFC resident wild man has been the one constant throughout this whole saga, staying 100% committed and ready to go. Ferguson went as far as making weight for the fight which did not take place April 18th. Ferguson is an absolute machine, and just on a mission right now. The interim lightweight title is on the line, and Ferguson has the chance to become the first two-time interim champion in UFC history. Tony Ferguson is a monster, he is relentless. He goes up to big bear, creates his own training camp and he wants it. He trains like a savage going on 6 mile runs at 1 am and having unbelievable work ethic and dedication. He is an action fighter and gets in wars for the fans. He has won 12 straight UFC fights with 9 finishes. He is extremely well-rounded. He usually strikes until his opponent goes for a desperate shot and will catch them in a choke or just knock them out. He is very long and uses that very well with forward pressure. He will enter with long uppercuts and straight punches, front kicks to the body, hard, inside leg kicks, jabs and he just throws so much variety and volume and breaks fighters down. His jab is nasty, and he really bloodies his opponent’s face up with them. When he lands the one, he will follow with the 2 and then get really funky with unorthodox combinations. He has footwork like no one else in MMA history, he will switch stances constantly. He loves to land a long range shot orthodox then switch and crash southpaw throwing lead uppercuts and hooks. His head is always moving, and he will literally start dancing and spin and just really look like he’s in the matrix in there. In the pocket, he is very quick and has great hand speed and power. He can knock fighters out with one shot but is mostly an accumulation striker. He will square up when he comes forward at times and it can get him hit but it also makes him dangerous from both sides. He has some of the best lead elbows in the UFC, throws them long and slashing to cut opponents open. He cuts open a lot of guys he fights. He has relentless pressure and when he feels an opponent slowing down, he will stay right in their face and finish them. He has great knees as well. He tends to start a bit slow and then wear on fighters and pick it up and start to slowly but surely make it a dominant performance. Usually mid-way through round 2 you see the demeanor of his opponents change and they become extremely defensive and going backwards. He is a warrior and has a phenomenal chin to go with an iron will. You will need to kill him to get him to stop coming after you. I feel his confidence is something that is extremely unique with him. He will throw anything & has no fear. He is like a Nick Diaz in that sense, where he will just try more things than his opponents are willing to do. He is always looking to do damage, and due to that he takes some, but unless you take him out he’s recovering & coming back. He keeps his right hand low and is susceptible to the left hook. He can sometimes throw leg kicks without setting them up and get caught and hurt he got dropped by Kevin Lee that way. Ferguson is more of a volume fighter, but he has 15 career knockouts. He has never been finished by strikes.
Ferguson not only is a dangerous striker, but a phenomenal submission grappler. He is a 2-time college wrestling national champion and possesses some of the best Jiu-Jitsu in the UFC. He locks in darce chokes or guillotines from standing position and will snap opponents down and finish the choke. His long arms allow him to have one of the best darces in MMA history. He is very hard to takedown, and I would be shocked if Gaethje was able to take & hold Ferguson down unless Ferguson wants to stay there. He will do crazy things such as rolling for leg locks in the middle of the fight. If an opponent takes him down, he is incredible off his back. He is a 10th planet black belt, he will lock fighters up in high guard or rubber guard and land hard, cutting elbows to the head while looking for armbars and triangles at all times. He does an amazing job of getting wrist control and landing elbows off his back. He will attack legs to get sweeps, he also has a solid get-up game. He will never give up or panic on the ground he will always be calm and try to find his way through it. Ferguson can get hurt & survive on his back whenever he wants to if he isn’t out cold. Tony has 8 submissions in his career and has been submitted just one time.
Justin Gaethje
Age: 31
Height: 5’11
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 5
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +164
Justin Gaethje is jumping in here and getting a massive opportunity. He has a chance to end one of the best win streaks in UFC history and take the interim belt. Gaethje accepted this match for April 18th, but now has had almost a full training camp to prepare. He has no excuses heading in here & should be confident and ready to go. Gaethje comes forward with a high guard and doesn’t back up. He takes shots to return his own & is all about pressure, pace & breaking opponents. Gaethje does a great job of chopping low kicks off the jabs of opponents. Gaethje is always trying to just stick in the pocket & counter with his overhand right or his left hook. He will attack the body with straight punches & hooks, and then come over the top with shots. He has huge power & his willingness to take a shot to return with power is why he catches a lot of opponents. Gaethje isn’t the greatest athlete & can struggle to get inside at times. He can throw sloppy right hands to try to get into the pocket & he can’t do that against Tony. He needs to use his jab to get inside or walk in with his hands up. His defense is terrible. He gets hit with over 10 strikes per minute & the damage he takes is absurd. He has been unscathed really in his last two fights though. He does do a solid job of rolling with shots & blocking them with his arms taking some power off. Gaethje has 18 KO/TKO’s in 20 wins & has been finished by KO/TKO in his two losses.
Justin Gaethje is a former All-American college wrestler, but wrestling is the farthest thing from his mind in fights. He has attempted a couple takedowns in the UFC, when he was badly hurt, but it’s not something you really have to worry about as a Gaethje opponent. In the clinch, he is nasty. He will get the single collar clinch & attack with nasty right hooks & right uppercuts to the head. He will attack with the right hand to the body as well. He does a good job of framing with his left hand to give himself more extension & power on his shots. He will also look for nasty knees & elbows in the clinch. He has in the past done a good job of using a takedown attempt to create openings for shots. Against Luis Palomino, he got in a double leg, disengaged, and immediately threw an uppercut that dropped Palomino. He has good takedown defense himself. I don’t expect Gaethje to take this down & if anything he might have to stuff a few double legs. Gaethje has just one career submission & has never been submitted.
This should be appointment TV for anybody who doesn’t hate violence. This fight should be high paced and bloody. I think the early rounds will be very close and I could even see Gaethje having the edge and being the one pressing forward. I think he is going to need to knock Ferguson out to get the win though because I don’t see Gaethje being able to go 5 hard rounds at his pace. The longer this fight goes, the more it will shift into Tony’s favor. I see Gaethje maybe winning rounds 1 and 2, and then Tony picking up the pace as Gaethje slows down and then I think Tony finishes him in the championship rounds. I would say Justin might be the better wrestler of the two, but Ferguson has the better grappling and is more dangerous on the ground, so I don’t see this fight going there unless Tony is the one to take it there. This should be a great fight for as long as it lasts so I can’t wait to see it.
This is an absolute all-in fight for me. I won’t create a single lineup without this fight and it is an easy stack in cash as well. This is where you should start your cash lineup and then move on from there. I think this is also stackable in GPPs. The pace these guys fight at, especially Gaethje, is pretty unmatched and the strikes will add up. We also have a -450 FDGTD line and I think that is even too low. I would be shocked to see this fight hit the score cards and with their salaries I think whoever wins is a lock for the optimal lineup. The only way this doesn’t end on the optimal is if it is a NC due to eye poke or something crazy like that. If you want to create a lineup or two with that thought knowing this fight will be in over 90% of the lineups then go ahead, I just won’t be doing that personally. I am guessing I will have more Ferguson lineups, maybe 60/40 type thing, but I have no idea really. I like both guys a ton this week and it will really just come down to what all fits and I will have plenty of exposure to both. Use whichever guy you like more but be sure to get exposure to both if you are MMEing because I think it is way too risky to go all-in on just one side.
Winner – Tony Ferguson via 4th round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: BigMarleyMMA.com
- Bets are on a 1-5u scale with 1u = $100.
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