BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC 248 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Vegas. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $50k goes to 1st place with a total of $200,000 being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and mainly chase that $50k. I will probably throw 20-50 in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Danaa Batgerel $8,200 vs Guido Cannetti $8,000
Danaa Batgerel
Age: 30
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 70”
Gym: JacksonWink MMA
From: Mongolia
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -140
Danaa Batgerel suffered defeat in his first UFC appearance. He had a fun back & forth war with Heili Alateng but was on the wrong end of a decision. Batgerel has been training at JacksonWink for this camp and trying to get better everywhere. Batgerel is kind of learning on the job. He has fought very low-level competition and still needs to gain experience. Batgerel has fought Kai Kara-France, but France was only 3-2 in his career. Batgerel began his career 4-1 but took nearly 3 years off after his first loss. He returned in 2018, picked up two wins & got the UFC call. Batgerel is a very technical striker. He can be low output but feints his way in very well & has excellent blitz combinations. He has a nice jab & left hook. Batgerel’s straight & overhand right hand comes very fast & clean. He will use that straight-right to start most of his blitz combinations. He will throw that straight-right into an uppercut, left hook, right hook combo. He will sometimes end the combination with a high kick or knee to the body. Batgerel has very nice front kicks up the middle. He will throw spinning attacks, flying knees & is a dynamic guy. He is very fast and can close the distance with powerful combos and can keep the pace high. He tends to start a little slow but picks up as the fight goes on. Batgerel can stick in the pocket too long at times & get hit with big counters. He can get clipped entering distance as he blitzes at times. He holds his hands low in fights. Batgerel is very dangerous though & if Cannetti is leaping in I could see him catching him and taking him out. Batgerel has 3 KO/TKO’s.
Danaa Batgerel is not a very active grappler. He did hit a double leg late in round two of his last fight. He showed fairly good balance & good initial takedown defense. He was able to defend the single leg vs Alateng and throw a flying knee, and nice elbows and punches, but got taken down because of it. He did show the ability to stand back up, but he was taken down again with a body lock and controlled. Batgerel was throwing nice elbows and punches off his back but didn’t try to stand back up. Batgerel does have one career submissions & has never been subbed. His last fight was close, but he did lose due to getting controlled in the third of a 1-1 fight. Both of his losses have come on the scorecards & he tends to fight close.
Guido Cannetti
Age: 40
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: Argentina
UFC Record: 2-3
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 year 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +120
Guido Cannetti will be making his first start of 2020 after sitting out the entire year in 2019. I am not sure why he sat out the entire year, but at 40 years old his career is definitely dwindling. Cannetti actually has had some decent performances in 2018. He was able to push both Kyung Ho Kang and Marlon Vera, hurting both of them before losing to go along with defeating Diego Rivas. Cannetti comes out very fast & is dangerous early. He has looked very quick recently and does a good job of using good in and out footwork, fakes and feints and not being an easy target to hit. He has good kicks. He will throw nice head kicks and front kicks to the body. He has very heavy kicks and his inside leg kicks are very hard. He can load up on his kicks and be countered if his opponent can time it. He has a nice left straight and will attack with a left straight, right hook combo. He is going to be the much faster guy. He will attack with some devastating shots such as spinning, hook kicks. He does a great job of landing the left straight or kicks, and just keeping his distance and pulling his opponents into his shots. He has a decent uppercut. He will stick out a double jab. He can get too aggressive and get a bit sloppy. He can run forward and either get clipped and finished or taken down. He also at times will throw spinning kicks when he doesn’t have enough space, get knocked off balance and end up in bad positions on the ground. He does have a good chin and is very dangerous especially in round 1. After round one, he slows down & he becomes much more hittable. Cannetti can get hurt & look for ways outs. He has 3 KO/TKO’s in 8 wins. He has been knocked out one time by Alejandro Perez.
Cannetti isn’t a great grappler, but he is improving and isn’t bad. He has a good, double leg shot and he does a good job of landing hard knees in the clinch. He also will throw shots off the break very effectively and catches opponents in short range. He has good initial takedown defense, he is very good at sprawling, digging underhooks, and either bulling fighters over and ending up on top or disengaging. If fighters can make him chain wrestle, that’s where he is deficient and can be taken down. He isn’t good off of his back and doesn’t have much activity. He just tries to control posture and wait for the ref to stand it up. He has been submitted a couple times in the past and tapped quickly. He did show some resolve in his last match getting out of a deep guillotine and armbar. Cannetti has been submitted 3 times and has 3 submissions himself.
I give Batgerel the striking edge here, but the grappling edge goes to Cannetti. I am not impressed with either guy here, but I think this is a dog or pass fight on the betting line and I think Cannetti could win rounds with takedowns and top control time. I don’t think I would want to trust him with my money, but the ground is his path to victory and I do think he will look to get it there early.
I won’t have much of this fight at all, but my preferred play is going to be Cannetti. I like that he is cheaper, and he is the one more likely to grapple. He has just never showed any kind of ceiling or real talent in general, so I would rather look elsewhere. Batgerel does have the better ITD line though at +190 and he should be very low owned, so I think he could be worth a play or two if you are MMEing, but he will mostly be a fade for me and I think Cannetti will make a couple lineups in my pool. I wouldn’t trust either in cash though so both guys are low owned GPP options only for me.
Winner – Guido Cannetti via Unanimous Decision
Jamal Emmers $8,500 vs Giga Chikadze $7,700
Jamall Emmers
Age: 30
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 74”
Gym: Pinnacle MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 89
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -190
Jamall Emmers is taking the short notice opportunity here to get into the UFC. He was originally scheduled to face Movsar Evloev, but Evloev has now been replaced with Giga Chikadze. This is a completely different matchup for Emmers. He has gone from a pure grappler to a pure striker. Emmers is fresh off winning in a LFA main event & has won 4 consecutive fights. Emmers has long been a high-level prospect on the regional scene with some high-level wins. Emmers has defeated UFC veterans, Chris Avila, Cory Sandhagen, Alexander Hernandez, and Jay Cucciniello. He also has wins over high-level regional scene guys in Caio Machado, and Rafael Barbosa. He faltered on the DWCS to Julian Erosa, which is what delayed his UFC debut. That was a pretty bad loss, but he has bounced back. Emmers is very fast & athletic. He has great movement & likes to stalk his opponents. He has great fakes, feints, and is lightning fast. He makes it hard for opponents to know when he’s coming due to all the feints and is able to control distance very well. Emmers has great head movement and is good at just sliding out of the way of punches and kicks. Emmers has a very educated right hand. His straight-right hand comes with zero tell & is extremely straight and sharp. He will slip & rip with that shot very effectively. Emmers will throw nice jabs & one-twos occasionally also. He will constantly pick & pull while pressuring and walking fighters down. He will mix in some uppercuts, overhands and hooks, but he mainly uses jabs & straights. Emmers has excellent low kicks & will throw some occasional spinning kicks. Kicks can get Emmers in trouble at times as he can throw them without setting them up. He also can get countered as he exits straight backwards occasionally. He floats his chin & can get clipped clean. He definitely is much better when he is going forward. His footwork is very good, but he needs to improve exiting with an angle after landing punches. Emmers has been getting more & more confident with his striking though and has three of his last four wins by TKO. His last fight where he earned a submission, he set that up by beating up his opponent standing. Emmers keeps a deliberate pace on opponents, walks them down, and breaks them. Emmers does have a bit of a weak chin. He has been finished by strikes twice in his career.
Jamall Emmers is a strong grappler which makes this fight very interesting. He has been training with Darrion Caldwell a very good and elite fighter & wrestler. Emmers is a former college wrestler, and just very slippery & explosive. He is excellent at using his striking to setup entries into double legs & body locks. He is very good at getting inside, pushing opponents to the fence, controlling and winning that way. I definitely see the game plan in this matchup to take Giga down. Emmers was able to defeat Sandhagen with that type of game plan. In top position, Emmers is more about control & embracing the grind. He will land short shots, drain the clock, and try to stay connected and hit mat returns when opponents stand up. In his last match, he did hit a slick transition into an arm triangle & choked his opponent unconscious. I haven’t seen Emmers really get shot in on much, but the few times I have he seems like a cat. He is one of those guys who will get taken down but will immediately scramble back up. I feel his takedown defense & get-up game are probably top notch. He seems to be entering his prime now & has a lot of confidence. Emmers has only 3 submissions in his career though. He has been submitted one time early in his career. Emmers has excellent cardio & is a supreme athlete. He has a very good, well-rounded skill set. The only issues he has are with his backing up defense & chin. If he can improve how he exits, he could be a very high-level fighter.
Giga Chikadze
Age: 31
Height: 6’0
Weight: 145
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Georgia
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 208
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +165
Giga Chikadze is coming in on short notice here. He is a switch stance fighter with elite speed. He likes to walk fighters down, stay light on his feet, and try to pull counter. He usually is in southpaw stance initially. He has a nasty jab, a good one-two & devastating kicks. He has a really nice, pull counter straight & left hook. He isn’t an overly punch heavy guy & doesn’t throw many punch combos at all, Chikadze is very kick heavy. He has nasty front & round kicks to the body and head. He has a nasty, counter front knee & will throw nice flying knees. He will throw beautiful question mark kicks to the head. He will throw axe and spinning kicks to the head. Chikadze also loves to throw rolling thunder kicks at the end of rounds. Chikadze’s left kick is a hammer. He has finished multiple opponents with that kick. In his fight with Austin Springer, he was not setting the kick up well & getting them caught & taken down. I’m not sure Chikadze can be effective with his kick happy style & poor takedown defense in MMA. His defense is very good & if an opponent wants to try to be aggressive, he will slip, rip & knock them out. Fighters in MMA have to respect his striking, not exchange & look for takedowns. Chikadze has 5 KO/TKO’s. Chikadze has been finished a couple times in kick boxing but has a strong chin.
Giga Chikadze is not a good grappler. He throws a lot of kicks which make it easy to take him down. He also was getting double legged vs Brandon Davis who isn’t a good wrestler. On the mat, Chikadze looks very raw. He was allowing Davis to mount and move to dominant positions very easily. He did sweep Davis once, and landed some decent ground & pound. Chikadze was able to use an omaplata to stand up vs Austin Springer. If he gets taken down in this one I think he will be in trouble.
Both guys had their original fights cancelled and are fighting each other on short notice here. Emmers has two big wins on the regional scene over Alexander Hernandez and one of my favorite prospects, Cory Sandhagen. He is a great wrestler and should have a big edge there. His issue is that he likes to strike, and he is a bit chinny, and Giga is a great kickboxer. I think Emmers should have an easy path to victory if he looks to wrestle early and often, I just am not confident that’s what he looks to do. He has KO power himself, but a striking battle is way riskier, and he could be knocked out. With this being his UFC debut, I would hope he plays it safe and takes this fight to the ground and I will take him to win with either a submission or a unanimous decision here.
This is a fight I will be targeting a good bit. My preferred play is Emmers for his wrestling ability and he has KO power himself. If I was making 5 or less lineups, I would just take a stand and go Emmers only in this fight, but with closer to 10 or more lineups I want to get some Chikadze lineups as well. He is the better overall striker and Emmers has been knocked out by lower level strikers, so it wouldn’t shock me at all to see Chikadze get a 1st round KO and break the slate at $7.7k. I will likely have this fight in more than half of my lineups this week and I could see the winner being on that $50k lineup. I think either guy can be used in cash games as well, but I like this fight more for GPPs.
Winner – Jamal Emmers via Unanimous Decision
Emily Whitmire $8,100 vs Polyana Viana $8,100
Emily Whitmire
Age: 28
Height: 5’4
Weight: 115
Reach: 63.5”
Gym: Xtreme Coutute
From: Oregon
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 70
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -105
Emily Whitmire will be looking to bounce back after a rough last outing vs Amanda Ribas. She was submitted in the second round. Whitmire is a more polished striker than Viana. She is a tall fighter with a 4-inch height advantage in this fight. She likes to use a jab & a straight-right hand. She keeps her punches straight & I do feel like that the jab should cause Viana issues. Whitmire will throw the occasional round kick to the body. I have not seen her throw the front kick to the body much, but I feel that kick will be more effective in this fight. Viana comes in on straight lines & she could use it as a second jab along with putting money in the bank with body blows. She will throw decent inside, outside leg kicks at time. She likes to throw a straight-right hand to a body kick combination. She stands very tall & doesn’t have the quickest feet. Whitmire has improved with her footwork, but she still can be too flat footed & fighters get inside on her. She isn’t dangerous & doesn’t have knockout power. She has been TKO’d one time on TUF, but she wasn’t hurt bad, she just got stuck in a position on the ground & couldn’t get out of it.
Whitmire is big & physical for the division. Both of her losses have come at 125 lbs, and she’s looked much better since moving to 115. She is a wrestler and has good, fast entries on her clinch takedowns. She does a good job of getting a strong body lock position, finding an angle and dumping her opponents. She will control position in the clinch if she can’t land the takedown and look for trips while landing some knees against the cage. Her takedown defense is strong. She is very good in the clinch, is good at disengaging & throwing knees & punches off the break. She needs to make Viana pay whenever she tries to get in the clinch in this match. She is not very good off her back, but she showed slight improvements in the Gillian Robertson fight, and heart to try to persevere and survive bad positions. She allows opponents to get to dominant positions far too easily. She did a good job of getting Robertson off her back and getting on top. She actually landed a couple nice ground & pound shots before getting armbarred by a pretty nasty transition. Gillian Robertson has proven to be the real deal. In her last match, she was out grappled & gave her back up which resulted in her being rear naked choked. On top, she uses her length to stand up & land shots in guard & then quickly move to half guard. She is very heavy in half guard & doesn’t give opponents space to stand up. She likes to trap the closest arm with wrist control, and her knee, and land ground & pound. She will look for arm triangles & if opponents get too crazy trying to explode, she will just take mount. She was able to take the back & lock in a rear naked choke in her last match. Whitmire has 2 career submissions & has been submitted twice.
Polyana Viana
Age: 27
Height: 5’7
Weight: 1155
Reach: 67”
Gym: Tata fight team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-3
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: -115
Polyana Viana needs to put up or shut up here. She has lost three consecutive fights and needs a win. On the feet, she likes to circle use & her reach. Her hands are not very good. She has a decent one-two & will come forward with straight punch combos. Her best weapon on the feet is her left kick. She has a nice left, round kick to the body. She will throw front kicks to the body also. She doesn’t really ever go high with her kicks. The last time Viana fought a southpaw in JJ Aldrich, she really struggled to defend the right hand. Viana holds her hands low, especially her lead hand, and has her chin right in the air. She has gotten hit with some big shots in her last two fights. Viana does have good heart & a strong chin. When she gets hit, she will try to walk opponents down & get it back. She did get dropped hard by a big right hand of Hannah Cifers. Viana has 4 KO/TKO’s mostly on the ground. She has never been finished by strikes.
Polyana Viana is a Jiu-Jitsu world champion. She is dangerous with submissions, mostly from top position. Viana isn’t the best wrestler. She looks to have some ok judo throws & trips in the clinch. She hit a double leg & circled to the back of J.J Aldrich but was reversed. Viana was able to get a rear naked choke in her UFC debut, but her Jiu-Jitsu hasn’t been all that impressive to me. She has lost dominant positions & shown really nothing off her back. She had both JJ Aldrich & Hannah Cifers in her full guard & didn’t do much in terms of attacking. She will land strikes from her guard & control posture but doesn’t have the best submission attacks. She will attack armbars and went for a leg lock vs Cifers. Viana does have a couple armbar wins on her record prior to joining the UFC. Viana has 6 submissions & has finished all 10 of her pro wins. Viana is 0-3 in decisions. Viana has questionable cardio & slows down in round 3. She got a takedown in her last match & was submitted from bottom. That was the first submission loss of her career.
It’s hard to trust either of these fighters but I do give the edge to Viana here. I think she will be the one throwing more volume on the feet and I like her BJJ more as well. She is 1-3 in the UFC though and Whitmire is fighting in her hometown here. If this goes to a decision, it could be close, and the crowd will be cheering for Whitmire. Either one could get a sub as well, but I favor Viana on the ground and I’ll take her to get the submission win.
I think we will need a finish from either of these ladies for them to end up on the optimal lineup. Viana ITD is +265 compared to Whitmire’s +400, so Viana is my preferred play here and I do think she has the better BJJ. Neither fighter is likely to score well if this fight goes all 3-rounds, but I do want some Viana exposure and I plan on being overweight to the field. I will likely fade Whitmire myself but if you like her to get the finish then I wouldn’t talk you off her, I would just not use a lot of both sides of this fight and take a stand one way or the other or fade altogether.
Winner – Polyana Viana via 2nd round Submission
Deron Winn $8,300 vs Gerald Meerschaert $7,900
Deron Winn
Age: 30
Height: 5’6
Weight: 185
Reach: 71”
Gym: AKA
From: California
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 72
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -145
Deron Winn suffered the first loss of his career in his last fight. He lost a split decision to Darren Stewart, having a bad showing all week which included missing weight. The story on Winn is pretty well known know. He is 5’6, probably the shortest MW of all time, and DC’s protégé. Winn is a former, elite wrestler, but has been more successful throwing hands in MMA. On the feet, Winn is extremely explosive & powerful. He is light on his feet, and pretty hard to hit at range. Winn will walk opponents down, work behind his jab & feints. He will use level change feints to freeze opponents & come over the top with an overhand or right hook. Winn will throw jab, overhand rights or jab, uppercuts. He will double jab into range. When he lands a combo & has an opponent backed up, he will flurry with hooks & straights to the body and head. Winn is good at touching his opponent with the jabs or some straights to get his range & then sitting down on a couple shots in combination. He was able to constantly back Eric Spicely up & put long combinations together. The thing about that is Spicely was literally shelling up standing in one spot, so it wasn’t too hard for Winn to do that. Winn is good at slipping & returning in the pocket and has a nice, pull counter right hand. Winn doesn’t throw many kicks, but he will throw some occasional leg kicks & a tricky head kick. Deron can be wild & throw some big, looping hooks & overhands that put him off balance & gives opponents counter opportunities. He also tends to stand right in front of opponents throwing these long combinations, and fighters are able to come back with counters. Winn didn’t show that big one-shot power vs Spicely. He landed a ton of shots but couldn’t get him out of there. He has 4 TKO’s but has gone to back to back decisions after taking a step up in competition. Winn showed he could take it & had a good chin in his last match.
Deron Winn has some of the better wrestling credentials in the sport. Deron Winn was a US National team member, 2-time NCAA Junior College National Champion, and three-time NCAA All American. Deron Winn actually defeated J’den Cox in college who is one of the best wrestlers in United States history. Winn did show where his size could maybe cause him issues in the grappling realm. Eric Spicely was able to consistently get the Muay Thai plum on the much shorter man & land short punches & big knees to the body and head. Winn was able to consistently back Spicely up with combinations & I feel when Spicely was just covering up against the fence, Winn could have level changed into a takedown easily. I just think he respected the Jiu-Jitsu of Spicely & was comfortable on the feet. In this fight, I could see Winn coming in with a similar game plan to keep it standing. Winn sets up his double legs with overhands very well & can slam opponents. In the clinch, he is very strong and can land throws or trips from there as well. Winn needs to improve his top control & Jiu-Jitsu. I do think he will be tough to submit. He got out of a guillotine vs Tom Lawlor, but his top control isn’t great. He allows opponents to scramble back up pretty easily. He allowed Darren Stewart to get into triangle setups multiple times, and I feel like Gerald will probably submit or sweep him if Winn takes him down. If Winn gets takedowns this match, he needs to do it smartly. He needs to get them at the end of rounds to seal them or maybe just dump Meerschaert and don’t follow him to the ground. Winn does do a good job of getting the front head lock position & snapping his opponents back down. He will work from the wrestling ride position & doesn’t really look to take the back. He struggled to do much of anything with his top position vs Darren Stewart though. Winn has no submissions & isn’t super dangerous in top position. He was actually taken down with a double leg by Darren Stewart but has never been controlled on his back. Winn can get a little tired in round three & is still raw. This is a big fight for him, and almost a must win.
Gerald Meerschaert
Age: 32
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 77.5”
Gym: Roufusport
From: Milwaukee
UFC Record: 5-4
Fight Matrix: 47
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +125
Gerald Meerschaert was on the wrong end of yet another controversial decision his last match. He had a close battle with Eryk Anders that most people believe he won but was given a split decision loss. Although Meerschaert has lost 2 out of 3 the two losses were controversial decisions, so he could easily be on a three-fight winning streak. Meerschaert is the veteran here & trying to hold his position as a top 25-30 guy. There has been a lot of talk in the buildup, and Meerschaert seems to be taking this fight personally. On the feet, Meerschaert isn’t the best, but has some dangerous weapons. He has nasty body kicks that he has folded multiple opponents with. He will throw heavy head kicks. In this fight, Meerschaert’s body kicks & boxing need to be on point. In his last match, he did show some improved boxing. Meerschaert wasn’t overextending as much and relied a lot on the jab. Meerschaert has a strong jab & against a small, short opponent, he needs to use it early & often here. I would use a lot of jabs & body kicks, to slow down the forward pressure of Winn, and try to get him tired. I don’t believe Meerschaert has any problem being on his back, so he doesn’t have to be worried about getting taken down off the kicks. Meerschaert has a pretty nice straight & overhand right. His left hook hurt Eryk Anders a couple times in their match. He was doing a good job of catching Anders with it as he tried to exit. When Meerschaert can back his opponents towards the cage, he will let go with longer combinations to the body and head. He is good at attacking the body in fights. Meerschaert will mix in nasty knees & elbows and gets most of his finishes standing when his opponent’s backs are against the fence. Meerschaert does have some defensive flaws on the feet though. He isn’t the fastest fighter, nor does he have the best footwork. He will lean back a lot to avoid punches instead of moving his feet. He is very hittable and did get dropped vs Anders. He is heavy on his lead leg & can be low kicked. Meerschaert is a durable guy though & has only been finished by strikes one time. He has 6 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Gerald Meerschaert is a crafty veteran & black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He is very good at baiting opponents into fighting his style of fight. He will give no resistance on takedowns, flop to his back when hurt, and always is inviting fighters to get in top position on him. Meerschaert is very confident that he will be able to find a sweep, take top position and end the fight. He has good single leg takedowns and he does a good job of timing singles when opponents throw kicks. He has nice body lock entries, and he is very physically strong in the clinch. He has good control, and nice short knees and elbows. He will grind in the clinch, and then eventually drop down for a double or single. He has good chain wrestling and can transition from body locks to doubles to singles very fluidly. On top, he has strong ground & pound, and he will rain down straight punches and elbows. He has good guard passing and is very heavy on top. He is very opportunistic with chokes and has a lot of different chokes he can pull off. He has gotten a guillotine, arm triangle, anaconda, and rear naked choke. Meerschaert has 22 submissions in his 30 wins. Meerschaert has been susceptible to the submission over his career. He has been submitted 8 times, but 7 of those where previous to 2013. In this matchup, I highly doubt he will get submitted. Meerschaert is a veteran who knows how to fight all three rounds. He has way more experience than his opponent & is sure he has some crafty tricks for him.
Winn’s biggest advantage here is going to be his wrestling and overhand right. However, Meerschaert is the most dangerous on the ground, so I am not sure he will even want to take it there, and Meerschaert is 7 inches taller with a 7-inch reach advantage so he will look to jab and kick and stay at range to avoid the knockout punch from Winn. I think if this fight hits the ground, Meerschaert is live for a submission from the bottom and if he can get takedowns himself, or a reversal, I think Winn could be in big trouble. I think his size advantage on the feet can help him win striking exchanges as well, so I am going to pick him to get the upset here.
Winn is the wrestler here and I think he has more KO power as well. I do like the ceiling for Winn in this matchup, but I don’t trust him against an experienced vet and I think Meerschaert is one of the best underdogs on the card. I think Meerschaert is one of 4-5 underdogs with 100+ point potential this week and I will be overweight to the field myself. I will also have some Winn exposure and I am even fine if you want to go heavy on him at his price tag, but I will probably be underweight there and hope to see Meerschaert pull off the upset.
Winner – Gerald Meerschaert via 3rd round Submission
Rodolfo Vieira $9,300 vs Saparbek Safarov $6,900
Rodolfo Vieira
Age: 30
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: Fusion Xcel
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 80
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -710
Rodolfo doesn’t really offer much on the feet. He will throw leg kicks, jabs, and occasional one-twos. He has decent hooks in close range, but mostly throws a couple to get respect for his feints. He is hittable & was caught with a decent uppercut & knee vs Jacob Tague that rocked him a bit before he got the takedown. Vieira is rugged & athletic though and isn’t a BJJ fighter who will quit in my opinion. It’s hard to say for sure because I haven’t seen him face too much adversity, but I think he’s tough.
Rodolfo Vieira will instantly be one of the best BJJ fighters in the UFC. He is one of the best passers in Jiu-Jitsu history & a 5-time ADCC world champion. He won the worlds at the HW 220 lb division & was able to handle the strength of bigger guys. He is extremely strong. Vieira has solid wrestling skills as well. He has very nice judo throws & trips in the clinch. He sets single & double legs up well & is very physical when he gets in on the legs. In top position, Rodolfo is a pressure Jiu-Jitsu player. He will try to turk the legs & move directly into mount or back position. He is exceptional at taking the back & in MMA he will be able to get the back of opponents with ease. He is known as the passing machine in Jiu-Jitsu & in MMA he will be on another level. If he gets on top of anyone they will be extreme danger. He actually can generate big power with his ground & pound and will use it to create passing situations and soften opponents up before locking in chokes. Vieira does have one ground & pound finish in his career. He has 5 subs & has finished all 6 of his pro wins. Rodolfo’s game plan is no secret, he is a specialist. He will be trying to get this fight to the mat & if he does he will likely finish the fight. Rodolfo has only been out of the first round one time in his career.
Saparbek Safarov
Age: 33
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 78”
Gym: Academy MMA
From: Russia
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 96
Last Fought: 1 Year.
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +505
He will throw a jab out there, and hard left hooks. He will close the distance with big hooks & uppercuts. He will try to walk opponents into his overhand right. He will throw fade away, left hooks. He will throw overhand right, left hook combinations. He will throw hard kicks to the body. When he threw a body kick against Villante, he grabbed his knee and it seems to be a recurring problem in his career. He is all heart & will continue to come forward throwing bombs regardless. On the feet, I feel over time he will be able to start to land some big shots on Vieira. I feel on the feet it just will be a wild brawl. Saparbek throws wide shots & fighters are able to counter him easily. He also drops his head when he throws punches. Saparbek has a hell of a chin. He has 6 KO/TKO’s and has been finished one time by TKO.
Saparbek is a strong grappler. He has good double legs and will crash into the clinch. He has decent low single legs. He is good on top. He does a great job of trapping a wrist and trying to move directly into mount or the back. He will catch kicks into takedowns. In his last match, he showed off absolutely brutal ground & pound and heavy elbows. He has a strong sprawl & will land hard uppercuts on the break. He will attack with guillotines to defend takedown attempts. It will be interesting to see who will be able to takedown who or if at all. He was kimura’d going for a takedown against the cage in his match with Tyson Pedro, so I wouldn’t advise grappling here. He has two career submissions.
This is KO or bust for Safarov. Vieira is the biggest favorite on the card and he might only need one takedown to finish this fight. I think he will have a massive edge on the ground, and I think he will look for takedowns early and often and I think he finishes this fight with a submission in round 1.
I like Viera as my preferred play here and I will be sure to force him into a fair number of lineups. My only issue is that he is the most expensive fighter on the card and I wouldn’t be shocked to see anybody else in the $8.9k – $9.2k range outscore him. I also think Viera could get one takedown, one pass, and then lock up a submission and possibly not even get 100-points. He does have the best ITD line on the slate though at -255 and Viera wins in round 1 is -110 on the betting line so I like that a lot as well. I love everybody $8.9k and up though, so I don’t think he is a must play, just the safest and likely to get 10x+. Safarov is only in play if you are MMEing and he will need a KO to end up on that $50k lineup. I might make 1-2 lineups with him if I get up to 50, but with 20 or less I think he is an easy fade.
Winner – Rodolfo Viera via 1st round Submission
Mark Madsen $9,000 vs Austin Hubbard $7,200
Mark O. Madsen
Age: 35
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 72”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Denmark
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 139
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: W5
Current Streak: W9
Betting Odds: -225
Mark Madsen the Olympian didn’t disappoint in his UFC debut. The undefeated prospect kept the good times rolling with an emphatic first round finish. Madsen was given a big opportunity to co headline an event in his home country in his UFC debut & hit it out of the park. The UFC is giving him another big chance here to showcase on a big PPV. This will be the toughest fighter he has fought yet in Austin Hubbard. Mark O. Madsen is a super athlete & extremely explosive. He is a former Olympic wrestler and showed that off with a ground & pound victory last time out. Madsen’s striking is developing & not very good. He is powerful, explosive & athletic & can knock fighters off. When he strikes at range, he is a little clunky & awkward. He looks vulnerable to counters & not very comfortable. He does have a devastating overhand right that floors opponents. He has a decent left hook or jab, left hook. He is constantly pressuring forward, cuts the cage off well & tries to make it a close-range fight. Inside, he has decent head movement & fighters have to respect his ability to wrestle. Madsen has three career KO/TKO’s. I haven’t seen him get hit clean much to say if he has a good chin or not.
Mark O. Madsen is obviously an elite grappler. Madsen usually wastes little time on getting the fight to the ground. He almost immediately closes the distance into the clinch or a double leg. In his last match, he landed an explosive, double leg slam. Madsen has excellent clinch takedowns. He will get the tight waist & drag opponents to the mat. In top position, Madsen passes very well & has heavy ground & pound. He will land big elbows from half guard, & then transition to mount. He has great mount & back takes. He has good rear naked chokes. Madsen will get the wrestling ride position, trap the far wrist & land ground & pound with the free arm. He will use the front head lock position to snap down opponents & lock in guillotines. He has nasty standing guillotines he will put opponents to sleep with. When Madsen takes top position, he usually stays attached to his opponent for the remainder of the round. I haven’t seen much of Madsen off his back. In a fight with Thibauld Larchet, he lost a scramble & ended up letting Larchet take his back. I didn’t like how his defense looked. He allowed Larchet to get both hooks in, cement position & get the arm under the neck. It was short time on the clock, so he didn’t have to face much danger. Madsen has 3 submissions, but I wouldn’t say he is very dynamic in his Jiu-Jitsu. I think he gets submission more due to breaking opponents with wrestling pressure. Madsen has good cardio & can go three rounds easily. In his LW debut he looked like an absolute beast & finished his opponent quickly with ground & pound.
Austin Hubbard
Age: 28
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 72”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 120
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +185
Austin Hubbard picked up his first UFC win his last go around. He went in there & defeated Kyle Prepolec by decision. Hubbard is now 1-1 in the UFC. He trains out of Elevation fight team and does hold some pretty big regional scene wins. Out of the two fighters Hubbard definitely has fought and beaten the better guys. Hubbard is the guy who is the former LFA champion & has been there & done that. He is the underdog here though. Hubbard is a solid athlete with good striking & very good movement. He uses a lot of false starts, fakes & feints, along with stance switching. Hubbard is a counter striker, but he’s excellent at going forward, cutting off the cage, and staying in his opponent’s face. He has a fast jab & a nice one-two. He will feint to create openings for his straight-right hand. He has pretty solid in & out movement. He likes to leap into a left hook. He will throw straight-right to left hooks to the body. He also will throw very nice left hooks to the body to left hooks to the head combinations. He likes to throw front leg, round kicks to the body. He will mix in spinning backfists & spinning back kicks to the body. He can be low output & tends to wait for opponents to strike to counter. He will stand in front of opponents at times & is heavy on his lead leg. In his last match, he got his leg almost amputated after the fight due to taking low kicks. He can also be hit by overhands & straight punches. Hubbard isn’t a big power hitter but has three career TKO’s. He’s never been finished by strikes.
Austin Hubbard is a pretty decent wrestler. He does do a good job of using his punches to create entries into singles & doubles and has pretty good back takes. When fighters pressure him, he tends to be hittable & wants to shoot takedowns. He can get shucked off the back & I have seen opponents take him out with well-timed body locks. In his last match, he had his back taken & was in a fully sunk in rear naked choke & got extremely lucky. The referee mistook the 10 second clapper for the bell & jumped in when his opponent very well could have finished the fight. He has been submitted one time. He has 3 career submissions.
Madsen is an Olympic wrestler and he has serious power for the lightweight division. I think Hubbard is the better striker here but he doesn’t have a ton of power, so I think his best chance would be to tire Madsen out early and try to win the striking battle to maybe win rounds 2 and 3. I think Madsen’s wrestling is too good to not work against Hubbard here and I don’t see him slowing down enough for Hubbard to stuff takedowns or cause him to empty his gas tank. I think the takedowns will be there whenever Madsen wants them and I think he finishes this fight on the ground with a submission or a ground and pound knockout.
This is going to be Madsen or pass for me. I think his wrestling and KO power is far better than anything Hubbard has to offer and unless Madsen has a weak chin that we don’t know about, I don’t see much of a ceiling at all for Hubbard in this spot. I like Madsen in all formats and I will likely be overweight to the field. There is no play I would be willing to go all-in on over $8.9k though so I will be spreading my exposure around and hoping to hit the winning combo. Hubbard will be a fade for me but if you are MMEing and want to take a low owned shot or two on Hubbard, I think that is fine.
Winner – Mark Madsen via 1st round (T)KO
Sean O’Malley $9,100 vs Jose Quinonez $7,100
Sean O’Malley
Age: 25
Height: 5’11
Weight: 135
Reach: 72”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Montana
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 2 Years
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W10
Betting Odds: -365
Sean O’Malley will be looking to make a splash after being out nearly two years. He has had a lingering USADA issue really affect his career, but hopefully he can get back on track here. I’m sure he has been improving a lot in the time off. O’Malley has a 72’ reach for a 135er to go with knockout power making him a unique fighter for his division. He uses a lot of lateral movement and has a great jab. He can throw the jab from both stances and is constantly switching stances while staying just as fluid and dangerous from both. His right hand is his money shot, and that punch that has one punch power. He will land a jab, then fake a level change and come over the top with the right hand, and knocks people clean out with it. He does a great job of following it up with a head kick if his opponents are still standing. He has a nasty, pull back counter right hand, very similar to Conor McGregor, and is deadly accurate. He will use unique setups for the right hand as well, such as looking away before he throws it. He has a good uppercut from southpaw position and can catch fighters coming in with it. He has a great kicking game and is very tricky with it. He will start out throwing a lot of spinning kicks to the body and round kicks to the body, and then throw question mark kicks to the head. When he gets his opponents guessing where the kick is going to go is when he will land a spinning back kick to the chin and knock fighters out. He does a great job of throwing a head kick and then exploding with a right hand when he brings his foot back to the ground. He has a nasty spinning back fist into a high kick combination which I love. He has a hands low stance, and can get hit clean at times, but he has great head movement and can slip punches even in the pocket with his hands down. He tends to slow down in round 2 and then get a second wind, but fighters have not been able to capitalize on that yet. He showed a good chin, and heart against Terrion Ware, getting beat up in round 2 and coming back strong in round 3. On the feet, he will have the advantage in this matchup, and he is a very fun, dynamic striker to watch.
His grappling is what fighters are going to have to try and exploit. He is good in the clinch and has good foot sweeps and body lock takedowns. He has questionable takedown defense, and I have seen him in an amateur fight break and quit to baby punches to the back of the head on the ground. He does seem to attack a lot off his back, he will go for a nice triangle, and has a good armbar. He does a good job of getting butterfly hooks and pushing his opponents off him. If fighters can pass his guard, he has trouble. He gives up dominant positions and can get finished, in my opinion, by a good grappler on the ground. He is extremely calm in the cage, it is quite shocking actually and has amazing fight IQ. He has never lost and has extreme confidence coming into this matchup. He should look to do what he does, knock this dude out. He needs to be aware that Quinonez will probably want to get in the clinch and wrestle and he needs to have his movement and pull counters on point. If he can land a shot on the button on Quinonez, I don’t think Quinonez will be able to take it. He has also been working a lot on his Jiu-Jitsu, so we will see how it plays out on the mat.
Jose Quinonez
Age: 29
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: Delicuentes MMA
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 5-2
Fight Matrix: 66
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +305
Teco Quinonez was victorious once again in his last match. He is a bit of an overachiever so far in the UFC, but this would far and away be the biggest win of his career. Teco is a striker, he is very technical and actually has tremendous footwork. He does not have the usual “Mexican style” people are used to from Mexican fighters, he actually uses a lot of movement and kicks from the outside. He does a fantastic job of always moving laterally, and never allowing himself to get his back against the cage. He is a good boxer; He has a nice jab, and good power in his right hand. He will dig to the body with punches. He throws nice front kicks to the body and round kicks. He will throw a head kick, and he really uses his kicks a lot. He tends to stay very risk averse in his fights, and has no problem winning a low output, outside striking battle by a small margin. His chin is questionable, and he was dropped two times in his last fight against Teruto Ishihara. If Ishihara was hurting him with shots, I have to think O’Malley can do the same. Teco needs to be extremely defensively sound on the feet. I do think he is a solid striker, and if he finds his rhythm he could give O’Malley some trouble. Quinonez has been TKO’d twice before so he has been finished with strikes.
Quinonez is well-rounded and can switch it up and go for takedowns. That should be his game plan in this fight. On the feet, he cannot give O’Malley space and try to win a distance striking battle, he needs to be closing the distance and making it ugly. He loves to get body lock takedowns in the clinch. He will try to use a trip and end up in his opponent’s half guard or full guard on the ground. On top, he really hasn’t shown much in terms of being able to control opponents on the mat. Fighters have been able to get-up when he gets them down and not take too much damage. He has Jiu-Jitsu tatted on his chest, but he only has 1 career submission, and has won 3 in a row via decision. He has 3 finishes and 4 decisions wins in his career. He has great cardio and great heart. He is a Mexican warrior and will fight to the end. He should look to fight with more of a “Mexican style” in this fight. He needs to get in O’Malley’s face, throw more volume, and get him backing up. When he sees openings, he needs to go for takedowns and try to log top position as well and take a decision victory.
I think this is a setup fight for O’Malley to get a win and if this fight stays on the feet it could be an impressive one. He likes to throw a lot of flashy strikes and he is a high-volume striker as well. I think he picks Quinonez apart on the feet here and if he is taken down he will throw up submissions off his back. I think Quinonez could have success with takedowns here, but I don’t know that he is safe even if he gets them, so I am going to take O’Malley to get a finish here.
This is similar to the last fight for me where it will mostly be O’Malley or pass. I think he is the fighter with the high ceiling and with the pace he throws at I don’t think a finish is a must from him. I don’t see much of a ceiling from Quinonez though, so he will mostly be a fade for me this week, but he will be low owned if you want to take a shot for that reason and fade the hype on O’Malley. I do think O’Malley is my least favorite play in the $8.9k-$9.3k range, but I will be sure to have him in a decent number of lineups and I think he is very live for a 1st round finish here.
Winner – Sean O’Malley via 1st round (T)KO
Alex Oliveira $8,400 vs Max Griffin $7,800
Alex Oliveira
Age: 32
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 76.5”
Gym: Tata Fight Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 9-6-1
Fight Matrix: 41
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: -145
Alex Cowboy Oliveira has his back up against the wall here. He has lost three consecutive fights & is in danger of being cut. Cowboy always brings it & maybe won’t be cut even with a loss, but you never want to lose four in a row. Oliveira is a seriously explosive athlete. He doesn’t use a lot of setups and throws everything into all his shots. He has implemented a couple leg kicks into his game in his last two fights. he has a nasty, straight-right hand. He is good at framing with his lead hand to gauge distance & then dropping it down the pipe quickly. He uses a long, karate style stance & is always moving in & out before exploding in with combinations. He will explode in with straight & hook punch combinations, that are vicious. He will explode in with a lead left hook. He will try to pull counter opponents into straight or overhand rights. He throws a lot of kicks, and usually starts the fights off with kicks. He will throw nice front & round kicks to the body. He will switch stances, but he doesn’t have a ton of offense from southpaw. He will throw lead, leg hook kicks & front kicks to the body from that stance. He is excellent at catching kicks & returning with shots or getting a takedown. He can be timed when he comes in and has taken a ton of damage in recent fights. He is very aggressive & when fighters are trying to give punishment, they are going to have to take some. He can lack discipline in fights & sometimes looks like he has no game plan whatsoever on the feet. He can also get himself out of position by overextending at times. He needs to have more of a game plan & not be so willing to go to war against a knockout artist like Max Griffin. He had his nose broken badly by Yancy Medeiros & cut open like a can of beans vs Gunnar Nelson. He is very tough & can take a shot. He has only been TKO’d one time in his career, in his war with Yancy. He has big knockout power & only needs one clean shot to finish the fight. He has 12 career KO/TKO’s.
Oliveira is nasty in the clinch. He does a great job of controlling a wrist & coming over the top with brutal elbows & knees to the body. He can finish the fight from that position. He is extremely, physically strong & can manhandle & control opponents against the cage while zapping their energy. He will look to get a body lock or duplex takedowns but isn’t a technical wrestler. He uses a lot of strength & muscles fighters to the mat. He is strong on top & aggressive with ground & pound. He has nasty hammerfists & elbows. He is very good at using his frame to stand up in opponent’s guards & land big shots. He has good takedown defense in the clinch. He will attack with big elbows & does a good job of digging underhooks & reversing the position. He isn’t great at defending wrestling shots from range and can be beaten in wrestling scrambles. Off his back, he is not very good. He tries to muscle his way out of positions, and it can work at times, but it can also allow opponents to advance position. He also tends to give his back when he’s trying to stand up. He is good at defending from the back & getting wrist control to turn in. He was able to reverse Gunnar Nelson’s back control & landed some big shots from the guard. He was able to land big hammerfists shots even when Nelson was on his back. Oliveira has 4 submissions and has been submitted 4 times. Oliveira usually starts extremely fast and gasses. That has led to a lot of his losses.
Max Griffin
Age: 34
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 76
Gym: MMA Gold Fight Team
From: California
UFC Record: 3-5
Fight Matrix: 73
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +125
Max Griffin is still looking for consistency inside the UFC octagon. Griffin has never won two consecutive UFC fights, and whenever he looks like he is gaining momentum, he gets brought back down. That same tale replayed itself in his last match vs Alex Morono. He was coming off an upset victory but couldn’t bring that performance into his next fight losing a decision. All of Griffin’s losses other than in his UFC debut have been back & forth, and he’s never an easy out. Max Griffin has an unreal chin. He can eat shots that would knock out almost anyone & then take big follow ups and still somehow recover. In his last match, he ate a flush head kick to the jaw, followed by three or four knees to the chin & a clean spinning backfist. He still somehow was able to survive & then won the following round. He has excellent lateral movement & very fast hand speed. He will throw the jab to the body and head. He has very fast one-twos. His straight-right hand is super-fast & he has big power on it. He dropped Mike Perry with a straight-right hand, left hook combination. He will meet opponents in the middle with straight punching combinations to stop their forward movement. He will also close the distance with straight punches or hooks in combination and try to finish opponents against the cage. He is very good at darting in with a straight shot & then getting out of range. He has very fast hand speed. He will throw hard inside, outside leg kicks & the occasional head kick. He has a very nice step-in knee to the body. He is extremely durable. His chin is granite. He took some huge shots against Thiago Alves, Mike Perry, and especially Curtis Millender & Zaleski Dos Santos. If fighters can cut him off, they can sometimes land wide hooks or overhands as he tries to exit. Griffin starts fights very sharp, powerful and technical, but time goes on he gasses hard. His movements become much more labored, and his punches & kicks come very slow. Griffin is much more dangerous in round one with 5 of his 7 knockouts being in round one. He becomes very hittable. He has only been TKO’d one time from being unable to get out of a position on the ground against Colby Covington.
Max Griffin has really improved as a grappler, winning his last via wrestling. Griffin did a great job of digging underhooks & landing trips and body lock takedowns. Griffin is also good at using the underhooks to drive opponents to the cage & chain wrestle. He will drop down into doubles & singles and has good control there. Griffin will throw an overhand right, directly into a single leg or body lock takedown. On top, Griffin will get into half guard, & land short elbows to the body & head. He will get a tight waist from side control & use it to control & ride opponents out. Griffin is good at turking the legs and transitioning quickly. He will force opponents to give their backs where he has good back control. He will look for the rear naked choke, but cares more about controlling the position than finding the finish. Griffin has gotten better with his top control and was able to earn a victory mostly via top control. Griffin was put on his back & dominated by Colby Covington but hasn’t really been on his back much since that contest. Griffin has just two submissions & has been submitted one time.
This is a close one, but I think the line is right, especially with Oliveira looking to end a 4-fight losing streak and possibly keep his job. This should be close on the feet and I would say Griffin is more technical, but Oliveira is wild and more likely to get a KO. I think Oliveira will have some success with takedowns as well and that is what gives him the edge in this fight. He could finish on the feet or the ground, but Griffin is tough, so I think this goes all 3-rounds.
I will be underweight to this fight as a whole, but my preferred play is Oliveira by a good amount. I think he is the only one of the two with a real ceiling here and he has a +190 ITD line compared to +445 from Griffin. If Griffin doesn’t get a finish here, I don’t think he scores well even if he does win and I would be pretty surprised to see him on the $50k lineup. I think with 20 or less lineups Griffin would be a full fade for me and Oliveira would be maybe 20% owned or less from me.
Winner – Alex Oliveira via Unanimous Decision
Li Jingliang $8,600 vs Neil Magny $7,600
Li Jingliang
Age: 31
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: China Top Team
From: China
UFC Record: 9-3
Fight Matrix: 26
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -185
Li Jingliang has been nothing short of impressive lately. He was a big underdog in his last match & went in there and got the first-round finish. Leach has won 7 of 8 fights & 3 in a row. He has finished back to back fights & looks great. The Leach has a kind of deceiving style in my opinion. He starts slow & looks bad at times. He will come in with his chin high, get clipped and dropped. He has been dropped in round one of almost all his UFC fights. Leach seems to wake up after that though & is a marauder. He has a good style to beat Magny. Leach has very effective low kicks that he brings to every fight. I feel he looked the best he’s ever looked in his last match. He has excellent footwork, movement and counters. His right hand was money & he measured in well. He landed nasty rights, straights & uppercuts. He was slipping and ripping and really dominated Zaleski. His jab looked very good which is not something he usually uses. Leach is very durable and will stick in the pocket trading hooks. He landed a rear uppercut that dropped Zaleski followed by a barrage of shots that took Zaleski out. He did that late in round three showing he has power throughout the fight. He sometimes can throw that rear uppercut and get caught. I feel he is going to want to back up Magny, throw low kicks & force him to fight while skirting the fence. He is the more durable and powerful guy. He is also on a run right now. He is extremely dangerous with 6 KO’s in the UFC. He has seven overall.
Li Jingliang is going to likely have to show off the improvements in his defensive grappling in this one. His takedown defense has steadily improved. In his last five UFC fights he has been taken down just one time. He needs to avoid the clinch here, but I don’t see Magny being effective shooting takedowns at range. Leach is going to have to make Magny pay as he enters the clinch & use good footwork. Leach has gotten a couple takedowns himself in recent fights, but I don’t think he should entertain the grappling with Magny. Leach does have 5 submissions, but only one in the UFC. He has been submitted only once by submission specialist Keita Nakamura. Leach has good cardio & is riding a wave of momentum. Leach has been questionable in decision fights. He is only 5-4 in decisions. Magny is 15-1 in decisions, so that is definitely something to think about.
Neil Magny
Age: 32
Height: 6’3
Weight: 170
Reach: 80”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Illinois
UFC Record: 14-6
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +160
Neil Magny will be making his return after a USADA suspension. Magny hasn’t fought since November of 2018. In his last match, he got absolutely dominated as well. He was battered by Santiago Ponzinibbio. Magny has had some big wins, and kept his top 15 spot for years, but is kind of known as the easy touch of the top 15. We will see if he has some new skills here in his return. At just 32 years old he still has time to improve. All hardcore UFC fans know what Neil Magny is about by now. He is a very technical fighter standing & on the mat but is more of a point fighter. He lacks physicality, and just isn’t a very dangerous fighter. In his last match, Ponzinibbio showed no respect for Magny’s striking, walked him down & beat him up. In his match with Craig White, the first round was fairly competitive prior to him landing a nice knee. Those are not good signs for Magny’s career going forward to me. Neil is a long guy and utilizes that well. He will switch stances; fake & feint well & is pretty technical. He is at his best when he can go forward & throw volume. He has a very nice jab and will double and triple up on it. He will throw some one-twos or left hook, overhand right combos. He relies heavily on straight shots and will mix it up to the body and head. Magny has excellent front kicks to the body. Magny has always struggled badly with low kicks. He is heavy on his lead leg and his legs can’t take much damage. He will get swept off his feet with kicks. Magny also doesn’t have the greatest movement when he gets backed up. He will look to shell up & return or slip and rip. In his last fight, he was getting rocked badly with jabs & took a ton of damage. Magny is a super tough guy. He would try to start strong in every round even after being hurt, but just was out matched. Neil was knocked out brutally in that last fight after sustaining three rounds of damage & his leg getting an absolute battering. Magny has been KO/TKO’d three times in his career.
Neil Magny is a very solid grappler. The clinch is arguably the most dangerous aspect of his game. He has nice elbows & knees. He can land knees easier due to his height. In Magny’s last win, he knocked out Craig White with a knee to the head in the clinch followed by G&P. Magny is good at getting the body lock or tight waist & using his leverage to take the back. He has solid takedowns in the clinch. On top, Magny is solid. He has nice passing ability & good control when he can move to mount or the back. Magny is pretty hard to takedown. He has 60% takedown defense throughout his UFC career. Most people who have been able to get him down were high level grapplers. Off his back, Magny will attack with triangles, but can be held down at times. He was submitted pretty easily by RDA off his back. Magny has been submitted four times in his career. When Magny loses, he usually gets finished. He has been finished in six of his seven losses. Magny has only three submissions himself & one in the UFC. You never have to worry if Magny is going to come in shape. He has some of the best cardio in the UFC. He needs to come back & get a win here to show he is still in the mix after this recent layoff.
I like Jingliang in this one. I think he is the better striker and has more finishing power as well. I would give the grappling edge to Magny, but I think Jingliang is the better wrestler and can control where this fight takes place. Magny also has crazy cardio and picks up the pace as the fight goes on, but I don’t see Jingliang tiring out here, so I think he wins a unanimous decision or gets a TKO finish.
Jingliang is my preferred play here and I like him in all formats. I think he will have 3-rounds to work with if he ends up losing here so I like his floor, and I also think he has a solid chance of scoring more than 10x in a win. His ITD line is +140 which is pretty decent and Magny’s is +510 which makes me not want much of him at all. I think Magny will need to get a submission or pick up the pace in the latter half of the fight to win here and if he doesn’t get the submission I don’t see him scoring well. He is another guy that I would probably fade with 20 or less lineups but I wouldn’t talk you off him if you like him this week. It will mostly be Jingliang or pass for me though and I will likely be overweight to the field on him.
Winner – Li Jingliang via 2nd round (T)KO
Beneil Dariush $8,700 vs Drakkar Klose $7,500
Beneil Dariush
Age: 30
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 72”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 11-4-1
Fight Matrix: 18
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3–1-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -170
Beneil Dariush is a good pressure striker. He has a nice jab, and a strong body kick. He has a nice straight-left hand and a good left hook. He closes distance very well with his punches. He likes to use a jab or straight-left hand to a head kick combination. He has nice superman punches and spinning backfists. He is more of a counter striker, and he likes to anticipate shots, block and return. He has nice step-in knees to the body. He has big power but only 3 finishes via strikes. He has a questionable chin. He got flatlined very badly against Edson Barboza, and most recently knocked out in less than 30 seconds. He has been finished 3 times by KO/TKO. He bounced back in a dominating way in his last match and has to have more confidence coming in here.
Dariush is a very strong grappler. He is a BJJ competitor, and black belt. He is good in the clinch, he does an excellent job of getting the Muay Thai plum and landing big knees. He does a great job of digging underhooks and is strong with his clinch control against the cage. He has strong clinch takedowns and will shoot doubles against the cage. He was able to dominate Thiago Moises by controlling him against the cage & taking him down in his last fight. He is an elite BJJ player and on top is very dangerous. He throws heavy elbows and huge ground & pound. He also is a black belt and has won the no Gi world championships as a blue, purple, and brown belt. He is very hard to takedown or control in the clinch himself but does get tired in grappling heavy matches and can start to get grinded out. He has good arm triangles and rear naked chokes. He had been submitted one time in his career. He is solid off his back and will attack with omaplata sweeps and is active with subs. Dariush finished his last match with a very nice submission. Dariush has 8 submissions & has been submitted one time. Dariush has good cardio & can push hard for three or five rounds.
Drakkar Klose
Age: 31
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: Fight Ready MMA
From: Michigan
UFC Record: 5-1
Fight Matrix: 33
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +150
Drakkar Klose is coming off a close decision victory over Christos Giagos, and overall has a stellar UFC record of 5-1. He is very cocky and almost shows disdain for his opponent’s striking, walking them down with his hands down. He has good leg kicks, especially the low calf kicks that his camp is known for. He will close the distance with big uppercuts or big hooks and does leave himself open to shots to the body. He doesn’t have great hands, so he prefers to be all the way in or all the way out. He throws a lot of body kicks, head kicks and leg kicks from the outside, and does a lot of mugging to try to get opponents to close the distance where he can duck under and shoot a takedown. He likes to throw a lot of explosive attacks to close the distance & get in the clinch as well. He throws superman punches, flying knees, spinning back fists, all to close distance and stay active. He will throw uppercuts after he ducks under if he can’t get takedowns. He catches kicks well and will get takedowns off them. He will also keep a lot of forward pressure, and in this fight especially I imagine him trying to close distance quickly. Klose has 4 KO/TKO’s and has never been finished.
Klose is a good wrestler, and very strong in the clinch. He does a great job of ducking under punches in the pocket and getting in on singles & doubles. He will use the single to push his opponents against the cage and work from there. He has nice, short knees, elbows & foot stomps, and good control. He is very strong and will lift his opponents in the clinch, circling to the back and trying to drag opponents to the ground. Klose doesn’t have great takedowns in MMA and hasn’t held many fighters down in the UFC. He has no career submissions, nor has he been submitted. In his last fight with Bobby Green, he was taken down with a body lock and mounted. He gives his back up in a lot of fights and can’t do that here. He was out wrestled by Green & that was telling to me. His cardio is his best asset in this fight. Klose needs to be aggressive & force Benny to fight on the back foot. He will have more cardio in round 3 & could possibly dominate or finish in the round.
I see this fight being very close on the feet but Dariush having the advantage on the ground if he can get it there. I think both guys will have their moments in the striking, but I do think Dariush will have some success with takedowns and Klose might be more hesitant on the feet with the threat of Dariush’s ground game. If Dariush can get takedowns, he could find a submission or use his top control to try winning rounds or stealing close rounds and that is why I will take him to win this fight.
At $8.7k, I think Dariush will go overlooked this week because of all the fighters priced above him. I think Klose could be more popular than he should with people loading up on fighters $8.9k and up and him being cheap at $7.5k with some line value. I think he is in play for an upset here, but he will need to keep the fight standing and for him to break the slate he will need to get his first knockout since he joined the UFC. Dariush does have the edge on the ground though and he has 3 wins with 110 DK points or more, so I kind of think he is a sneaky play at low ownership. If you are entering smaller field tourney’s he would be a fade for me, but if you are going for a solo $50k, then I think he makes sense and I will have some. Klose is a fine play in all formats, but I won’t go too heavy on him. He will be my highest owned play at $7.6k and under though aside from the two title fights.
Winner – Beneil Dariush via Unanimous Decision
Weili Zhang $8,900 vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk $7,300
Weili Zhang
Age: 30
Height: 5’4
Weight: 115
Reach: 63”
Gym: Black Tiger Fight Club
From: China
UFC Record: 4-0
Fight Matrix: 1
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W20
Betting Odds: -160
Weili Zhang burst onto the UFC scene less than a year and a half ago & already has claimed UFC gold. She is on the cusp of stardom after buzz sawing former champion Jessica Andrade in less than one minute. She did it in her home country of China. Now she is getting the chance to defeat the biggest name and most successful champion in the history of the SW division, Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Zhang likes to throw a lot of front & round kicks to the body. She is light on her feet, very fast in & out and hits hard. She has good inside, outside leg kicks. She will throw a jab, inside leg kick or jab, body kick. She has nasty front & sidekicks to the body. She is excellent at using her sidekick to keep opponents at bay. She has nice, straight punches & likes to throw them in combination to close the distance. She has good, counter straight-right hands as well. She can get clipped with counter punches when she throws her kicks without setting them up. She will also lean back instead of moving her feet to avoid punches at times which is a bad habit. She has a very good chin and can eat shots & continue to come forward. She is in perpetual forward motion walking her opponents down. She does a good job of catching kicks & throwing punches or taking opponents down. When she hurts opponents, she will swarm in combination. She likes to throw straight punch & uppercut combinations when fighters are backed against the cage & will throw head kicks as fighters try to exit. She will also throw spinning back kicks to the head. She can get a little wild inside & throw hard hooks and get countered. Danielle Taylor hurt her a bit with a counter right hook. Some people think she may be a little bit chinny, but she has never been finished with strikes. She has 10 career KO/TKO’s.
Zhang is an incredible grappler & very physically strong. She is mean & whenever she’s in grappling scenarios, she’s trying to do damage. She will throw viscous knees to the body & can fold opponents with them. She will throw hard elbows & punches in the clinch. When she hurts opponents in the clinch, she will throw huge ground & pound for the finish. She does not let her opponents off the hook. She will throw nasty elbows & hammerfists & if she hurts opponents she usually finishes. She will get the over, under in the clinch & drive opponents to the mat. She is very good in half guard & will rain down hard elbows. Danielle Taylor did attack with a leg lock & was able to get back to her feet. Zhang loves to get to half guard & get the crucifix position. She will throw nasty elbows & hammerfists from that position. She can bloody the face of opponents with elbows & brutalized Jessica Aguilar with elbows. She has smooth passes into mount & will batter opponents from there as well. She will take the back & go for rear naked chokes. She has been taken down herself, but she is good off her back. She has a nice butterfly guard & will attack with leg locks of her own. She will attack with triangles & armbars off her back also. Against Jessica Aguilar, she got her guard high attacking with the triangle while landing brutal elbows, ultimately transitioning to an armbar. Zhang has 7 career submissions & has never been submitted.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Age: 32
Height: 5’6
Weight: 115
Reach: 65.5”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Poland
UFC Record: 10-3
Fight Matrix: 3
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +140
Joanna Jedrzejczyk is looking to become the first women’s fighter to ever regain a title after losing it. She has had two failed bids at UFC gold since losing her title, and this is likely her final opportunity. Joanna is legend in the game & one of the best female fighters of all time. At her weight class of SW, she has only lost to one girl, Rose Namajunas. She has defeated almost every big name in the history of that division. She is coming off a dominant victory of Michelle Waterson & is extremely motivated to get her belt back. Joanna is blistering fast, and one of the better strikers in the entire UFC. Joanna has an amazing jab, and she needs to use it a lot in this match. She will double and triple up on her jab, really accentuating her reach. She needs to stay long and throw her jab hard and straight both to the head & the body. She likes to use her jabs to setup combinations and when she finds her range, she is deadly. She has a nice jab to straight-right hand to the body combination. She does a good job of using her jab to setup her overhand right. She has nice feints & fakes and she likes to fake shots to get reactions from opponents and attack other areas left vulnerable. She has a nice left hook to the body. She dropped Claudia Gadelha with a nice, lead uppercut. She has brutal, low calf kicks, really battering the leg of Rose Namajunas in their title fight. She has nasty front teips to the body, they are very fast and straight, and she digs the balls of her feet into her opponent’s stomach. She will throw her right teip to the head after landing it to the body a few times and can catch fighters clean. She does a good job of setting up her teips with leg kicks and likes to throw a right, inside low leg kick to a front kick to the body combination. She will throw the front leg, front kick to the face as well, and she’s fluid kicking with both legs. She has nice, fast, left high kicks, and she likes to set it up either with the jab or right leg kick. Joanna is going to be the faster fighter in space. Joanna has a tendency to get emotional and stand flat footed and try to wing hooks and straight punches in the pocket. She was tagged a couple times by Tecia Torres because of this, and continually touched with the leaping left hook of Rose Namajunas in both fights. Joanna keeps a high volume of shots out there and is able to keep the same pace for the entire fight, if not even turn it up as it goes. She is much more of a volume striker than a knockout artist, but she is dangerous with 4 KO/TKO wins in her career. She has only been finished once by strikes, but her chin has been questionable lately.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk is a strong grappler. She is nasty in the clinch. She does a good job of sprawling on takedowns, getting an overhook and throwing hard knees to the body to go along with her elbows. She did a good job defending the takedowns of Tecia Torres against the cage, and ultimately using her underhooks and good head positioning to turn Torres and control her against the fence. She had nasty knees to the body and good front elbows to the face. She likes to get the Muay Thai plum clinch where she is deadly. She does a great job of pulling opponent’s heads down & attacking with knees and will throw hard elbows to the head. She has bloodied the faces of multiple opponents with those hard-slashing elbows. She has great takedown defense, she has phenomenal balance, technique, and is very hard to takedown. When she does get taken down, she does a great job of protecting herself and returning to her feet while making her opponents work. We have seen opponents such as Claudia Gadelha have success taking down Joanna early, but as the fight went on she gassed, and JJ took over. Joanna won’t go for takedowns herself, normally. She has only two takedowns landed in 11 UFC fights, most of those being 5 rounds. She has 83% takedown defense. She isn’t really a submission threat with just one submission in her career, and she has never been subbed herself.
This should be a good one, but I think the betting line is about right. I still think JJ is the more technical striker and I think she will be the one throwing more volume here. However, Zhang has way more power and she would be the one that is looking to mix in takedowns. Zhang throws high volume as well, so I expect a high paced fight that either Zhang wins ITD or it goes to a close decision. I do think Zhang has more ways to win this fight but if I knew this fight would go all 25-minutes, I think it would be a dog or pass fight and closer to 50/50. I think Zhang can finish this fight with a (T)KO though and that is what I will pick as my prediction here.
I have a hard time seeing the winner of this fight not on the $50k lineup. This is my “all-in” fight on the card and if I was picking 1 fight to stack in cash, this would be it. I will still have a lineup or two in GPPs without this fight just to be different, but with 20 or less lineups, I think you should be all in. If JJ wins she will crush her $7.3k salary and I think if Zhang wins there is a decent chance it could be a finish and she could outscore everyone in the $9k range. I love this fight and I think you can be as heavy on either side if you want to, just don’t fade this fight. I will have a ton of each side and I think the last I looked I had 53% Zhang and 47% JJ. I am still building lineups though so that could change.
Winner – Weili Zhang via 2nd round (T)KO
Israel Adesanya $9,200 vs Yoel Romero $7,000
Israel Adesanya
Age: 30
Height: 6’3
Weight: 185
Reach: 80”
Gym: City Kickboxing
From: Nigeria
UFC Record: 7-0
Fight Matrix: 1
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W18
Betting Odds: -280
Israel Adesanya got what he wanted, and that was to be locked in a steel cage with Yoel Romero. The UFC champion will be looking for his first title defense in this fight. Adesanya is extremely fast & fights like a spring on the feet. He is excellent at inching forward while feinting, switching stances, and giving different looks. His feints are incredible & if fighters respect his striking & let him get his reads, it’s game over. He is good at staying at his range & hand fighting with his lead hand. He has nice leg kicks, and a very good jab. He has a very nice one-two & a laser for a straight-right hand. He has a great step-in knee. He has a great left hook to the body that ends fights and does a great job of finding the openings high and low. He can switch stances & has the same accuracy with the straight-left. He tends to switch stances after he kicks. He has a nice straight-left, right hook combination. He will throw nasty front & lead leg hook kicks to the body & head. He has a great round kick to the head as well & is extremely fast with no tell. He has nice spinning kicks & jump kicks as well when he wants to get creative. He is very good at timing knees when opponents are trying to close the distance. He is very fast, very accurate, and doesn’t waste a lot of strikes. He throws a lot of one shot attacks & doesn’t open himself up to being countered. He only throws combos when he thinks it’s definitely going to land. He has very good footwork, but he isn’t much of a mover. He likes to stand in front of opponents, so he can pull & slip counter. I do feel the fact he doesn’t use a ton of lateral movement could benefit Yoel backing him up. Almost all his opponents have been able to clinch him against the cage at some point in the fight. Gastelum was able to hurt him when he attacked as Izzy had his back near the cage. I could see him using more lateral movement in this matchup knowing Yoel has struggled with that in the past. I don’t think Adesanya has huge power, but he is so precise & timing beats power. Some of the counters he was landing in his last fight were a thing of beauty. Adesanya does have 13 KO/TKO’s, but only one in 5 UFC fights. He is extremely confident with a good chin at 18-0, but he has been knocked out in kickboxing.
Adesanya is a solid, defensive grappler & improving a lot. He has really improved his takedown defense, and even though he isn’t super bulky or muscular, he is very strong in clinch positions. He does a good job of getting the Thai clinch and landing nice short elbows and knees. He has great hips and does a good job of getting his back to the cage if opponents get in on his legs where he is very hard to takedown. He is very strong in the upper body clinch and is hard to control there. He will reverse and turn fighters against the cage or disengage. He can be taken down by body locks sometimes, and when he is on his back, he has a decent guard. In his fight with Kelvin Gastelum, he immediately threw up subs off his back & almost subbed Kelvin. He does a solid job of controlling posture and not taking much damage. If opponents take him down in the center of the cage which is very hard to do, he doesn’t have a great get-up game and can be controlled from there. He did roll for a leg lock in his fight against Tavares, it wasn’t even close but at least it is showing he is growing and confident enough to try some things in the Jiu-Jitsu realm. He has a very calm demeanor even when he is put in bad positions, and he has the confidence he will get out and get back to his feet. He will not panic, and when he returns to his feet, he will still have gas and be able to attack heavy. He has never been submitted, and I actually have liked his top game from the small sample size I’ve seen. He has good control and does a good job of floating and staying on top of his opponents as they try to sweep or get-up.
Yoel Romero
Age: 42
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 73”
Gym: ATT
From: Cuba
UFC Record: 9-3
Fight Matrix: 5
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +240
Yoel Romero is getting a third crack at UFC gold. He is 1-2 in the fights, and arguably 2-1 but in the one victory he missed weight. Romero is a freak & probably the most athletic fighter to ever grace the octagon. He is a southpaw & a tricky fighter. He fights in spurts & is an exploder. He will lull opponents to sleep with low volume & odd movement, and then leap into a fight ending shot or combination. Romero likes to use a lot of kicks from the outside. He throws nice round & oblique kicks to the legs. He will throw nice round kicks to the body & head, and even will mix in sidekicks & hook kicks. He has very nice feints & fakes to set the kicks up. He likes to use the oblique kick to the knee to a left straight or left hook combination. Romero has brutal power in his hands & will explode into left & right hooks, and overhand lefts. If he lands clean, his opponents will go to sleep. He is good at slipping & returning with an uppercut, which I think could be useful in this matchup. He will use double jabs to get inside & also switch stances mid combination to create new angles. Romero will use his left hand to counter forward pressure along with flying knees. He has landed multiple flying knees that have finished fights most notably on Chris Weidman. Romero is very hard to hit. He controls distance very well & has great vision being able to see shots coming. Romero when he gets tired though will slow his movement & back towards the fence. A lot of his defense is due to reaction time, so when that slows he becomes hittable. He has an insane chin & crazy ability to absorb damage. I expect Adesanya to try to attack the body early & often of Romero, which we haven’t seen him deal with much. Romero will walk through elbows, head kicks & in his last fight was just in pure zombie mode. He is an amazing competitor with a never say die attitude. Romero has been knocked out once early in his career by Raphae Calvacante at 205 lbs. Romero due to his pacing keeps his power over three rounds & has the most third round knockouts in UFC history. Romero has 11 knockouts in 13 wins.
Everyone knows by now Romero’s wrestling credentials. He is a silver medalist in the Olympics & one of the best pure wrestlers to ever grace the octagon. I expect to see his wrestling in this match, as he uses it to counter forward pressure. Romero has one of the fastest blast doubles I have ever seen. He will use the flying knee to disguise his level changes, by jumping & planting into an explosive double. He has an excellent trip inside the clinch. He even has shown ankle pick takedowns that are super fun to see. Romero when he gets fighters down will look for brutal elbows & can finish from top position. He hasn’t shown great top control in MMA though, and fighters can get-up from under him. He hasn’t looked like he ever took an interest to Jiu-Jitsu, because he has no submissions or top control. I would be very surprised to see Adesanya even take him down. His takedown defense is good & his get-ups are amazing. He is almost impossible to hold down. Romero has no submissions & has never been submitted.
I think Adesanya might be the best striker in the UFC. Yoel Romero is getting up in age at 42 years old now but he is still one of the scariest fighters in the UFC. Israel is 4 inches taller, a 7-inch reach in this fight, and I think a huge advantage on the feet, aside from power. If this fight stays standing, I think Yoel’s only path to the win would be a knockout. Yoel will have the wrestling advantage as well though so that is his other path to victory would be to mix in takedowns and land heavy GNP and try to test Izzy’s chin. With his power, he is a live dog in this fight and I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he gets a KO on the feet or the ground here. I am going to pick Izzy though. I think he will keep this fight at range, stuff takedowns or get up quickly, and if he avoids the KO I think he picks Yoel apart on the feet and either wins a decision or gets a knockout himself. Yoel is always scary though and he has won a lot of fights via finish in round 3, so if you are betting Izzy it will be a sweat as long as the fight lasts.
This is my 2nd favorite fight on the card and I am fine with stacking it as well. I could also be on team dub stack this week. My preferred play of the two will be Izzy but I could see this fight not being on the optimal lineup and it will probably be in 90% or more of all lineups, so I am ok fading it in some GPP lineups to be contrarian. Maybe Izzy is cautious of the KO and doesn’t put up a ton of volume and if the fight gets out of round 1, he could be off the optimal if the other fighters $8.9k and up outscore him. I could also see him dominating the early rounds and then Yoel get a 3rd round or later KO and possibly taking him off the optimal. I do think if Yoel wins, he is close to a lock on the $50k lineup, but for ownership reasons I think we can get away if we are going for a solo $50k. Load up on whichever side you like though because the winner should score highly but I think Izzy puts on a striking clinic to get the W.
Winner – Israel Adesanya via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: BigMarleyMMA.com
- Bets are on a 1-5u scale with 1u = $100.
- I am 115-87 for +244.16u (+$24,416) since May 19, 2018 for all premium bets.
