Welcome everyone to the NASCAR Cup Series DFS Preview. For this edition, we will take a look at the upcoming Bluegreen Vacation Duels at Daytona. This article is brought to you by DFSArmy.com and written by Ryan Larkin. Sign up today to become VIP member sign up and use code LARKIN to save 20%!! You can catch up with Ryan on twitter or in the DFSA VIP slack @Larkin8
Duels at Daytona
The Duel races at Daytona are used to help set the starting lineup for the Daytona 500. Qualifying last Sunday set the front row (positions 1 and 2) for the Daytona 500 while the Duels will set the rest of the starting positions. The races are broken up into equal events with Duel #1 being raced by drivers who qualified in odd positions and Duel #2 raced by drivers who qualified in even positions. Race one will set the starting positions for the inside line of the 500 and Duel two will set the outside. The only drivers who will not be factored into this is, of course, the drivers who qualified 1st and 2nd, Ricky Stenhouse and Alex Bowman. There are five non-chartered teams that will be trying to race their way into the field through the Duels with the highest finishers making the Daytona 500. Duel #1 will have 22 cars while Duel #2 will have 21.
Quick Race Facts
Date: February 13th
Duel #1: 7:00 pm ET.
Duel #2: 8:45 pm ET
Laps: 60 laps each
Drivers: Duel #1 22 – Duel #2 – 21
Defending Champion: Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano
AVG. # of Cautions: 1.33 excluding stage breaks
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DFS Outlook
The Pole Sitters
For these Duel races there are a few trends we should look at. Let’s start with the drivers who qualified 1st and 2nd for the Daytona 500 and have little to race for in the Duels. These drivers are Ricky Stenhouse and Alex Bowman. In the last four Duel races, these drivers who start the Duel race in 1st have finishes of 9th, 13th, 14th, and 16th. With protecting the car of the utmost importance we often see these drivers play it safe. Considering Stenhouse is one of those drivers we may see something crazy but a rational thinking driver will take care of his car and his front row starting spot.
Race Dominators
Even with the low number of laps dominators are in play for this race. A driver has led 40 or more laps in 4 of the last 6 races. In the other two races we saw top lap led totals of 34 for one race and a split of 28 and 25 in the other. All 7 of lap leading “doms” finished inside the top 6 with three wins and two 2nd place finishes. Of course, there is always the chance they get shuffled out late making the laps led meaningless but this is another strong trend to pay attention to.
Cautions
There have been eight natural cautions in the last six Duel races. Even this number is skewed though as four of those cautions came in one race. We tend to see only one incident involving 2-4 drivers for these races. There is really no incentive for anyone besides the five non-chartered teams to push it in these races. Tearing up a primary race car in a race that means little has seen most drivers take the same cautious approach.
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General Thoughts
These races are rather tame with most drivers looking to take care of their car. There is one wrinkle to consider that may see a slight change in these races which is the new SuperSpeedway rules package. The cars get better runs in the draft which could lead to more passes and lead changes. This could also increase the chances of a block going wrong as the closing rate is greater. As a whole, the Cup Series has gotten very patient in these events and I would expect the same this year. Be flexible with your lineups though as you never know with these Daytona races.
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Check out some of our other DFS Army NASCAR content for the 2020 season!!!
Cup Series: 2020 NASCAR Cup Series Season Preview
Xfinity Series: 2020 NASCAR Xfinity Series Season Preview
Truck Series: 2020 NASCAR Truck Series Season Preview
DFS Army Strategy Series – NASCAR Scoring Fanduel vs Draftkings
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