BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN+ 23 Location – Busan, South Korea
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in South Korea at 2am ET. DraftKings has some OK contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $10k goes to 1st place with a total of $50k being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw a handful of entries at that $10k prize. Typically, I stay around 20 lineups each week and go after that big GPP and then max the $4 20-entry max GPP as well.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Ryan Benoit $8,200 vs Heili Alateng $8,000
Ryan Benoit
Age: 30
Height: 5’5
Weight: 135
Reach: 68.5”
Gym: Saekson Janjira Muay Thai
From: Texas
UFC Record: 3-3
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 2 Years 1 Month
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -120
Ryan Benoit will be returning from an extended layoff & competing at BW for the first time since 2013. Benoit hasn’t competed in MMA since November of 2017 and had been campaigning in the FLW division. He is getting older & missing weight his last match probably led to his decision of moving up. This fight is in South Korea, but Benoit has competed in Australia multiple times, so he is used to the travel. Benoit is moving up but he’s the bigger more powerful puncher. Benoit can turn fighter’s lights out with one punch or head kick & is explosive & closes the gap quickly. Benoit doesn’t throw combinations & most of his shots are wide. Alateng definitely has the tighter punches. I just think it could be a lot of staring in the mirror unless Benoit gets a KO. Benoit may be better at cutting off the cage & throw more volume at 135 but hasn’t shown that. Benoit has fought & KO’d much better competition. Benoit has 8 KO/TKO’s. He is also very durable, never being finished by strikes.
Ryan Benoit is a former wrestler & will bring it out occasionally. He isn’t a super active wrestler in most matches, but he has decent timing on double legs. He doesn’t have the greatest top control or ground & pound, but he can change it up and throw off opponent’s rhythm. Benoit has had issues with takedown defense throughout his career. He gives up takedowns fairly easily but has gotten better at scrambling to his feet quickly. He doesn’t accept being on bottom & has fairly good submission defense. He has been submitted twice earlier in his UFC career. Benoit has just one career submission. Benoit has always shown good cardio & will to win.
Heili Alateng
Age: 28
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 66.5”
Gym: Team Alateng
From: China
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 182
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +100
Heili Alateng was successful in his UFC debut taking a victory over Danaa Batgerel via decision. He will be looking to build on that with a victory over an established veteran in Ryan Benoit. Alateng is an okay striker. He is a counter striker with good forward pressure. He has a nice straight-right hand. He will counter with it & sit opponents down. He has a good left hook. He will leap into it & can close the distance quickly. He hurt Batgerel in his last fight with those strikes. When he hurts opponents, he will swarm with hook flurries & take fighters out. He does tend to allow opponents to control the center & walk him down. He will just try to walk opponents into his shots but can get caught himself. He has been knocked out 3 times in his career. He has 4 knockouts himself. Alateng has no problem brawling & trusts his chin, maybe a little too much.
Alateng has a wrestling base but seems to like to bang it out on the feet more nowadays. He has a short, compact frame & looks like he’d have pretty explosive wrestling shots. He has good double legs. He seems to only like to wrestle when he’s hurt now or getting dominated on the feet. I haven’t seen a ton of him in top position, but he likes to take the back & has good G&P. He wasn’t able to control Batgerel on the mat very effectively. He has two rear naked chokes & a standing guillotine.
I think Benoit is the more powerful striker here and I see him being the fighter pressing forward looking for that KO. I think Alateng could still be the one landing more volume though and I think he is more likely to land takedowns. I don’t feel confident picking either guy here, but I do think this is a 50/50 fight and I wouldn’t lay juice on either fighter if I were to bet this fight, so I will take Alateng as the slight underdog in a close decision, but Benoit is more likely to get a finish if there is one.
I don’t see this being a fight I look to target a lot. However, Benoit’s ITD line is +295 compared to Alateng’s +435, so I think Benoit is my preferred play here. If I was making 1-3 lineups I would probably just fade this fight. If I was making 10 then I would probably look to get at least 1 guy and maybe one each. I just have no strong lean in this one and I don’t think it takes place at a real high pace. That plus it going to decision lined at +175 just make me not want a lot of exposure here as a whole.
Winner – Heili Alateng via Split Decision
Miranda Granger $8,900 vs Amanda Lemos $7,300
Miranda Granger
Age: 27
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Charlie’s Combat Club
From: Washington State
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 28
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -185
Miranda Granger had an impressive UFC debut handing Hannah Goldy her first professional loss. Granger is 7-0 & has finished 6 of her 7 wins. Her match with Hannah Goldy was the first time she had ever been to decision. Granger looks pretty well-rounded. Granger is a long, rangy striker. She has fast hand speed. She has a nice jab, left hook. She will throw a one-two or a jab, right hook. She likes to throw two or three straight-right hands in a row to close the distance. She will throw some nice outside leg kicks. She will throw some round kicks to the body as well. Overall, her striking isn’t the greatest though. She will reach a lot to try to get in the clinch, isn’t the fastest & is stationary in her movement at times. She looks hittable to me, but no opponent has made her pay yet. This fight she is fighting the best striker of her career in my opinion. Lemos also is a career BW who is coming down to 125, while Granger is a former 115er who has expressed the desire to return to that division. She has one TKO which happened on the ground & has finished all her fights on the mat or in the clinch.
Granger is a dangerous grappler. She likes to use her punches to close the distance & get double underhooks. She has nice knees to the body & head from that position. She is very dangerous in the clinch with guillotines. She will get a standing guillotine Jon Jones style & has a great squeeze. She has gotten two of those in her last four matches. When she gets ahold of that neck, she will attack with knees to the head as well. She doesn’t look to be the most physically strong fighter & her wrestling isn’t great. Fighters seem to be able to reverse her & muscle her around a bit. Granger will allow opponents to take her down when she has ahold of the neck. She is very good at using that to regain guard & attack from there. She has a nice guard & throws up submissions quickly. She got an armbar quickly after being taken down vs Jamie Colleen. Granger will look for body lock takedowns herself. She will work to the back & look for rear naked chokes. She likes to use her length on the feet to take the back standing. Overall, Granger doesn’t look for many takedowns though. She does look good in scrambles but doesn’t have the greatest top control. She is more of a fighter who likes to flow & scramble on the ground until she can find a submission. Granger is very dexterous with her legs & can take top position in weird ways. When she fought Jamie Thorton, she was on bottom in north south position. She was able to use her legs to roll over, get her hooks in, flatten Thorton out & finish with strikes in mount. She reminds me of a Cynthia Calvillo on the ground a bit. Granger has 5 submissions in her career, 2 armbars, 2 guillotines & a rear naked choke. If she can create grappling situations she is dangerous everywhere, whether it be the clinch, on top or on bottom.
Amanda Lemos
Age: 32
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 65”
Gym: Marajo
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 2 Years 5 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +160
Amanda Lemos is fighting for the first time in nearly 2.5 years, returning from a USADA suspension. She lost her UFC debut getting finished by Leslie Smith & her job is likely on the line here. Lemos is only 6-1-1 & has just one-win vs a fighter with a winning record. Lemos is actually a pretty technical, powerful striker. She has solid movement, heavy, low kicks inside & outside. Lemos has a nice jab, and good a left hook. She will walk opponents into one-twos and double straight-right hands. Lemos has a heavy, accurate overhand right. Lemos has pretty fluid hands & good hand speed. She puts combinations together well & definitely has the better hands in this match. Lemos throws with power & is a finisher. Lemos has nice, heavy round & front kicks to the body. She will throw spinning heel kicks. Defensively, Lemos leaves a lot to be desired. When fighters force her to trade in the pocket, she gets very wild & doesn’t move her head. She will lean back with her chin right in the air & holds her hands completely down. Leslie Smith put a pace on her she couldn’t keep up with. She backed her towards the cage, put the volume on her & got her out of there. Lemos was visibly exhausted in round two. When she gets tired, she will back up to the fence & shell up rather than use movement. Lemos struggles to fight moving backwards & doesn’t offer much. When she can go forward, dictate the pace of the fight, she usually is winning. Lemos does look like a good athlete with decent technique & maybe the time off will have her looking improved defensively. Lemos has finished 5 of her 6 wins via KO/TKO. She was finished with elbows in her last match.
Amanda Lemos is not a very active grappler. I highly doubt she will want to grapple with a dangerous submission artist such as Miranda Granger. Lemos has been backed up pretty easily in past fights. She can be controlled in the clinch against the cage & showed poor defense defending knees & elbows. I haven’t seen Lemos have to deal with many good wrestlers, but she has shown decent takedown defense against the cage. I have seen her taken down with a trip in a regional scene fight, and got her guard passed & her back taken. Lemos was able to hit a deep half guard sweep & took top position. Lemos doesn’t really like to control in top position & stands up when she gets the opportunity. She does have one guillotine submission. I feel that Lemos will be in trouble in the clinch & on her back in this match. While there is limited footage of that part of her game, I am not impressed. Lemos slows down in fights especially when fighters make her fight at a high pace. With two years off I imagine her return fight will be tough for her. Lemos has one career submission.
These ladies are both finishers and they have only been to decision one time each. For Granger, her lone decision was a win in her UFC debut. For Lemos, her decision was a majority draw and she has never won or lost a full 15-minute fight. I think Lemos is going to need a knockout to get a win here as well because I favor Granger on the ground. She looked good striking in her debut, so I see it being close there as well.
The prices here are making Lemos my preferred play just because I don’t see me getting up to Granger at $8.9k. I don’t see a huge ceiling from Granger because she isn’t a great wrestler, so I don’t see her racking up takedowns. I just think the submission potential would be the reason I want to get her in my pool, but I don’t see her getting 100+ here and I think she is more likely to pick up as the fight goes on and Lemos gasses. I think Lemos is in play at her price tag because I think she is good for over 10x if she gets a win here. She could get a TKO, but I think her pace would be enough to get 10x with her striking if she gets a win here. It’s another fight I won’t be targeting much but it is probably dog or pass for me because of the salaries.
Winner – Miranda Granger via 3rd round Submission
Raoni Barcelos $8,400 vs Said Nurmagomedov $7,800
Raoni Barcelos
Age: 34
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Russ Vale Tudo
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 15
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -115
Raoni Barcelos has looked fantastic since joining the UFC. Barcelos is 3-0 with 3 finish victories. This fight was scheduled for May of this year, but Nurmagomedov suffered an injury. They finally will get to run it now in December. I’m not sure why it took so long to book these guys again after that last matchup didn’t materialize, but here we are. Barcelos is an impressive striker. He is a great athlete and has very good movement. He has excellent feints, good head movement & is very fast in & out. He is excellent at cutting off the cage & making his opponents fight with their backs near the fence. He has a great jab & a very good one-two. He has heavy leg kicks. He has nice hook combos. He can close the distance very quickly with his right hook. He has a nasty uppercut. He will feint the level change & come up with the uppercut. He will also grab a single leg, let go & come up with an uppercut. He will throw an uppercut, straight-right hand or uppercut, left hook. He has very fast hand speed & is very explosive. He will throw the occasional body kick, along with round & spinning kicks to the head. He can be hit if fighters can time when he enters, but his defense is very sound. He has big power & has 7 KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished by strikes.
Raoni Barcelos is a strong wrestler & Jiu-Jitsu world champion. He has competed on the Brazilian national wrestling team and took silver at the pan games in 2006. He has a very good double leg. He has great timing on it, and his uppercut disguises it up extremely well. He has good body lock takedowns and good singles as well. He will takedown opponents easily when he gets them against the cage. When he gets top position, he has nasty elbows. He has good guard passing & back takes. He will get the rear naked choke. He has good takedown defense, and I haven’t seen very many people shoot on him. In his lone loss, he was taken down, gave his back trying to stand up & was submitted by rear naked choke. Barcelos has two submissions.
Said Nurmagomedov
Age: 27
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 70”
Gym: DagFighter
From: Russia
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 29
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -105
Said Nurmagomedov has started his career 2-0, with a win at 125 & 135 lbs. He is coming off a quick knockout of Ricardo Ramos in an impressive performance. Said is a flashy striker, with a strong wrestling base. Said has a good one-two and a quick jab. His counter left hook is nice, and he has a good rear uppercut. He throws a lot of front kicks to the legs & body. He likes to follow his one-twos with a question mark or rear leg head kick. His overhand right is very accurate. He likes to close the distance with straight punches & then land knees to the body. He will switch stances & throw front kicks with both legs. He has nice spinning kicks to the body & head. He landed a spinning heel kick which hurt his last opponent before finishing him. He will throw jump knees to the head. He is a bit plodding, but I feel he will be able to cut opponents off easier at 135. He was overextending on his punches against Scoggins & got dropped with a couple counters. He isn’t a power striker & relies more on volume and landing flashy strikes to wow the crowd & judges. He has two KO/TKO’s in his career. He has never been finished with strikes & I feel he is durable, but he was hurt a couple times in his match with Scoggins.
Said Nurmagomedov is a strong wrestler & he does a good job of using takedown attempts to setup strikes. He will shoot a single leg takedown & if it’s defended, he will control a wrist, throw a left hook & will also throw spinning backfists. He has fast shots & good singles & double legs. His length gives him an advantage to get his hands connected & get easy takedowns. He will shoot double legs & get double underhooks, push opponents to the cage and land knees to the body. On top, he has good control, but he wasn’t able to pass the guard of Justin Scoggins. He did land some nice punches & elbows to the head and some shoulder shrugs to the head. He has great cardio & will continue to press forward and try to win the fight for the entire 15 minutes. He was a step behind all night in his UFC debut, but his constant pressure gave him the nod at the hands of the judges. In his second UFC fight, he came out dusted his opponent in round one. Nurmagomedov isn’t a huge submission threat & he only has three submissions in his career. He has never been submitted himself.
I think Barcelos is the more dangerous striker here and he should be the fighter setting the pace. I like him to be the one throwing more volume on the feet and I think he is more likely to get takedowns here as well. He can finish with a KO or a sub in this fight but Nurmagomedov is a solid fighter himself and I don’t see him getting dominated anywhere. I think the last name could be playing a bit into the line though because I would think Barcelos would be slightly higher favored than he is. I will take him to win 2 of the 3 rounds to get his hand raised.
This is a fight I like both sides of because of their salaries. My preferred play is going to be Barcelos and in his 3 UFC wins he has scored 119, 107, and 114. I love that upside and if he gets over 100 again at his salary, he will be on the optimal. I like him in all formats, but I do think this is his toughest test yet and it will be harder to lock down a 100+ score here. I think Said is in play as well because he is one of the more talented underdogs and he does have KO potential. If I am making 10 lineups, this is probably a fight that makes at least half of them. I would think I go 3-5 Barcelos and 1-3 Nurmagomedov with 10 total lineups and I don’t see me going over that many this week. Barcelos would be the guy I look to for cash games and SE’s though and he could come close to a core play for me this weekend.
Winner – Raoni Barcelos via Unanimous Decision
Alexandre Pantoja $9,100 vs Matt Schnell $7,100
Alexandre Pantoja
Age: 29
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 67.5”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 5-2
Fight Matrix: 4
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -210
Alexandre Pantoja is an aggressive striker along with being a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. Pantoja has a nice jab, and good one-two. He has nasty leg kicks & will throw a one-two, leg kick combination. He has a nice jab, left hook combo. He has a nice wide right hook & overhand right. He will slide back & counter with those attacks. He has nice hooks to the body, and he will throw a right hook to the body, left hook to the head combination. He will throw nice front kicks to the body & the occasional round or front kick to the head. He has shown the tendency to fight emotionally & get a bit wild. When he gets hit, he will aggressively come forward and try to get it back. He has no problem sitting in the pocket & exchanging and has a great chin with solid power. He can’t do that here against a counter puncher in Schnell. His striking has hit another level since joining ATT. His hand speed & head movement is much better. He will slip & rip in the pocket very effectively. His feints are better along with his shot selection. He landed a switch stance, straight-right hand that knocked Wilson Reis out. He needs to have that technical approach again here and can’t get too wild. Pantoja has 7 KO/TKO’s and has never been finished.
Pantoja is a great grappler with superb BJJ. He is very strong in the clinch, and when he backs fighters against the cage, he will grab the Muay Thai plum and land hard knees to the head and body. He will get a single collar position against the cage and throw nasty elbows and knees to the body. He will go for body lock takedowns in the clinch and shoots some reactive shots if he has an advantage on the mat. On top, he is very good, he has great guard passing and moves into dominant positions quickly. He has nasty ground & pound and is extremely accurate. He loves to take the back where he has a great body triangle and control. He has a great rear naked choke with 6. He has never been submitted. I expect him to try to keep this fight standing & avoid being on his back. His takedown defense is solid. He has a strong sprawl and is good at creating scrambles right away. In his fight against Dustin Ortiz, he lost more due to Ortiz being able to turn in after Pantoja took the back & control the later parts of two rounds but didn’t have great success taking him down. He is extremely hard to hold down. Pantoja has 9 career submissions.
Matt Schnell
Age: 29
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 70”
Gym: AKA
From: Louisiana
UFC Record: 4-3
Fight Matrix: 8
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +175
Matt Schnell is pretty technical as a striker & going to be the more technical striker in this matchup. Schnell is light on his feet & has solid footwork. He has a nice body & head jab. He has a very nice, straight-right hand lead. He will throw a lot of right hooks as well. He will throw a double jab, right hook. He has good leg kicks & oblique kicks to the legs. He will throw a straight-right, left uppercut, straight-right combo. He has good hand speed & closes the distance with fast, straight punches. He has nice high kicks & front kicks to the body & head. He does a good job of catching kicks & returning with punches. He is a strong counter striker. He will slip the jab & throw uppercut, straight-right hand combos. He will also throw nice counter fade away left hooks. He does a solid job of moving his head when he enters into range, but it stays on center line too long at times after he throws his strikes. When fighters get inside they can hit him clean with straight punches. He is a black belt in karate & very fast in & out. On the feet, he’s going to be the better striker. He is a bit chinny, and if Pantoja lands clean, he could hurt Schnell. Schnell doesn’t have a lot of power & only two career KO’s. Schnell has been finished twice by KO/TKO.
Schnell is a good grappler, and it will be interesting how the Jiu-Jitsu will play out. Schnell does a good job of getting double underhooks & pushing opponents to the cage. He will shoot good timed double legs, but he is not a very active wrestler. He will shoot at the end of rounds to try to steal or seal the round. He also seems to like to wrestle in the third round. He stands tall & fighters can get in on his legs. Hector Sandoval who has a similar style of movement & blitzing in, was able to easily take him down with double legs. He has solid takedown defense against the cage. He will attack with darces also, but he can end up on his back hunting the submissions. He will attack with a nice guillotine to try to counter as well. Off his back, he will throw up triangles & armbars. He got knocked out with very short hammerfists against Hector Sandoval which was a little eye opening. He will attack with submissions at the expense of position & can hold on to submissions for too long. I do feel Pantoja most likely can get takedowns, and this fight could come down to if Schnell can get-up, submit or sweep. Schnell does have good cardio and can go all three rounds at the same pace. Schnell has 7 career submissions. He has been submitted twice himself.
This is one of the best fights on the card. I do think Pantoja is the rightful favorite here and probably has a slight edge everywhere. I don’t see him being able to dominate this fight at all though and I think the line is too wide in a fight that could be very close. Schnell has been on a roll, winning 4 straight fights and his confidence is riding high and he is getting Pantoja coming off a loss. I think he has the striking to keep this fight close on the feet and his ground game has been looking great. I think the value is on the dog in this spot and I think it is a closer fight than the line indicates. I could see me taking a 1u stab on the underdog here later in the week.
Schnell is my preferred play here because I think he is a live dog and I don’t see him getting much ownership. I don’t see him having 100+ upside here unless he can get a 1st round finish, but I do think he can make this a close 3-round fight and get a win at a cheap price tag. I think Pantoja is the fighter with the higher upside and a guy that can get 100+ and break the slate. I want exposure to him as well, I just think the ownership will be there with him. If you are picking Pantoja to get the win here, then I don’t even think you need to get exposure to Danger because he could score ~60 in a win and that might not even help us. That will just be an ownership play for me personally. This will be another fight that makes half or more of my lineups most likely.
Winner – Matt Schnell via Split Decision
Omar Morales $8,800 vs Dong Hyun Ma $7,400
Omar Morales
Age: 34
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 74”
Gym: Hard Knocks 365
From: Venezuela
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 115
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -200
Omar Morales will be looking to start his UFC career off right with a win over Dong Hyun Ma in South Korea. Morales is 8-0 as a pro and had a very impressive performance on the DWCS earlier this year. Morales beat down & finished a LFA champion. Morales has not been very active throughout his MMA career. This will be the first time he is fighting more than one time in a calendar year since 2012. Due to that, at 34 years old, he doesn’t have time to waste or fights he can lose. Morales is still a bit of a mystery. There are only two fights of his online with one being 58 seconds. He looked very good in his last match though. Morales is a huge guy for the division & an explosive athlete. He has good lateral movement & likes to fight pretty & on the outside. Omar Morales has devastating rear leg kicks. He has nasty, low calf kicks & blistering fast, high kick. Morales has a nice jab & a good one-two. His pull counter, straight hand is excellent. He has the ability to mix in tight counter hooks & uppercuts that stun opponents. He usually only throws with one or two shot attacks & then tries to exit. His defense isn’t the best when someone can get inside & pocket fight. Morales battered Harvey Parks’ leg & then took him out with a nasty combination of punches against the cage in his last fight. He definitely is the better technical striker with more power. Dong Hyun Ma is going to have to make it ugly & test Morales’s heart. Morales has a lot of confidence on the feet right now with back to back KO victories.
Omar’s grappling is a bit of an unknown. There isn’t a lot of footage of him grappling, but he is a big, explosive guy. In his last match, he showed the ability to dig underhooks & circle off the cage very well. He did allow himself to get backed up & controlled for periods of time during the fight. He was never taken down & probably landed the more clinch strikes too. Morales has nice knees to the body in that position. He does have submission victories & apparently won a decision with a wrestle heavy game plan. Unfortunately, I haven’t been able to find any footage of him defending or shooting for takedowns or on the ground. He has two rear naked choke victories to go with a guillotine & armbar. Morales has 4 career submissions.
Dong Hyun Ma
Age: 31
Height: 5’11
Weight: 155
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: Busan Team MAD
From: South Korea
UFC Record: 3-4
Fight Matrix: 194
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +170
Dong Hyun Ma needs to right the ship. He has been destroyed in his last two matches getting finished badly by KO/TKO. Ma took a ton of damage just four months ago along with being knocked out cold earlier this year. I am not sure he would be fighting this quickly if the fights were not in his home country. Fighting in South Korea has to give Ma motivation & I’m sure he will be ready to go. Ma likes to work behind his jab, left hook & leg kicks on the feet. He is very active with his right leg. He will throw round kicks to the body & head from orthodox and likes to switch stances & throw kicks with the front leg. He will attack with the round kicks to the body & head and has decent front kicks. Ma is very flat footed & stands right in front of opponents. He doesn’t move his head & when he gets tagged, he will plant his feet & brawl instead of moving. He did drop Holtzman with a left hook in his last match. He has taken a lot of damage in his UFC career. He was finished in a war against Marco Polo Reyes & then quickly knocked out by Devonte Smith. Scott Holtzman systematically beat him down & finished him by doctor’s stoppage. He isn’t very dangerous on the feet & fighters can stay in the pocket with him without fear of getting knocked out if they’re durable. Ma has 6 KO/TKO’s, but most of those are on the ground. He has been finished 3 times by KO/TKO, and those came in his last 3 losses.
Ma is a judo black belt and has solid body lock takedowns. He has good judo throws & strong clinch control against the cage. He will throw knees to the body & try to bank control time. On top, he likes to take the back & he has good top pressure. He seems to not have great top control when he tries to get damage off or go for submissions himself. He isn’t a very active seeker of the takedown. In 6 UFC fights, he only has 6 takedowns and 4 came in one fight. He has not gotten a takedown in his last 3 fights. Even with the judo black belt, he can still get controlled against the cage & taken down. He has a good get-up game and is hard to control on the mat. He does have 6 submissions, but all pre-UFC. He has been submitted twice in his career.
I like Morales here and I think he is the better fighter everywhere. Ma is going to have the home advantage, but I don’t see that playing too much of a part here because I don’t see this going to the judges. Morales is a powerful striker and has a solid submission game. Ma has taken a lot of punishment in his UFC career and I think this is a bad matchup for him and I see him getting TKO’d for the 5th time in his MMA career.
It’s Morales or pass for me here because I won’t be making more than 10 lineups, so I don’t think I need exposure to Ma with limited LUs. I think Ma is live for a late finish here and any win at his pace could be good enough for the optimal lineup. I just don’t think he is very good and I think he gets finished early. Morales is going to be a core play for me because I think he is one of the more likely 1st round finishes here and at his price tag I think that will be good enough for the $10k LU. I like him in cash games as well, but I don’t see me playing cash games this week. I would probably need 15-20 lineups before I looked to get exposure to Ma in this fight.
Winner – Omar Morales via 1st round (T)KO
SeungWoo Choi $9,300 vs Suman Mokhtarian $6,900
Seung Woo Choi
Age: 27
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 74.5”
Gym: MOB Training Center
From: South Korea
UFC Record: 0-2
Fight Matrix: 337
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -280
Seung Woo Choi is likely getting one last chance to get a UFC win. He is 0-2, but now getting to compete in his home country. He is a sizeable favorite coming in here and is expected to get it done. Choi is a long, rangy striker. He has very solid footwork & distance control. He has very nice leg kicks & a nasty one-two combination. His jab is very nice. He does a great job of pull countering with his straight-right hand to maintain distance. He will throw straight-right, left hook combinations. He likes to finish combinations with leg kicks. He will throw solid front & round kicks to the body. He has nasty front kicks to the head. He will throw spinning heel, question mark & round house kicks to the head as well. He is very technical & won’t overextend or put himself in bad positions. He has huge power & great accuracy in his straight-right hand. I have seen him get multiple one punch knockouts. He has 5 KO/TKO’s in 8 wins. Choi is durable but has been finished once by strikes.
Choi isn’t an offensive grappler & will be trying to use his striking to maintain distance & fight at range. He looks hard to takedown in the clinch and has nasty elbows in close range. He has very fast hand speed & can land nice combos off the break. He will grab the Thai plum & land vicious knees to the body & head. He can be controlled in the clinch, but he is very hard to takedown. I have seen him get a couple body locks in a fight where an opponent was trying to take him down in the clinch. He uses his length & physicality well to deny takedowns but was dominated in his last match via wrestling. He fought a beast in Movsar Evloev who I feel is going to do that to a lot of opponents. He didn’t get overwhelmed too bad on the mat & survived all three rounds. He had a much closer fight in his last match with Gavin Tucker. He did get taken down, but he was able to stand up off bottom & won the striking pretty easily. He was taken down in the clinch with single legs. I think Choi has an easier matchup here with a less physical, non-wrestler in Suman. He still has to worry about Mokhtarian locking something up if it hits the ground & respect that though. Choi was submitted in round three of his last fight via rear naked choke. That was the first submission loss of his career.
Suman Mokhtarian
Age: 27
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 67”
Gym: Australian Top Team
From: Australia
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +240
Suman Mokhtarian is in the same situation as Choi. He is 0-1 in the UFC & is in dire need of a victory. He also lost on TUF & is on a two-fight losing streak. Mokhtarian is 8-1 with 7 finishes. He is very aggressive and closes the distance with heavy hooks quickly. He has a decent left hook, and a powerful right hook. He has a very wide stance, and he is susceptible to being leg kicked. He will throw leg kicks and high kicks, but he is more of a puncher on the feet. He likes to talk shit and try to get in fighter’s heads. He isn’t very technical on the feet, and he mostly uses his hooks to try to close the distance and grapple. Mokhtarian really struggles to get inside though & just uses sloppy punches from the outside to fall into the clinch. He can be low volume & just get out struck by fighters who can move. Ricky Steele dominated their fight on TUF & didn’t get hit much over two rounds. Against Sodiq Yusuff, Mokhtarian left his head right on center line & got hit with massive shots. He was much slower than Yusuff and couldn’t deal with the speed & power in the exchanges. Mokhtarian has one KO/TKO, & his standup isn’t super dangerous. He was finished for the first time in his career in his last match. He does have a strong chin & was finished on the feet.
Mokhtarian is a tricky grappler, and he can lock up submissions from a variety of positions. He likes to use his strikes to crash the distance into the clinch where he will look for body lock takedowns. He also will try to get a hold of the neck and jump for guillotines. He also will duck under and go for double legs. He can control fighters against the cage and land knees and short elbows, but he also can get controlled against the cage himself. In his two matches on TUF & in the UFC, he did get position against the fence, but was reversed & controlled there himself. He hasn’t attempted any takedowns in either match. Mokhtarian doesn’t look like the strongest guy physically. He doesn’t shoot takedowns from range either, and I think he really will struggle to takedown UFC level opponents unless he’s improved majorly. He has 7 submissions, and I have seen him get some high-level subs such as a twister. Mokhtarian is a fighter. He has the heart to stay in there & wants to win badly. He won’t break & will come in shape, it’s just about if he is at that level or not.
I think the only shot Mokhtarian is going to have here is a submission chance. I think Choi is going to be the much better striker and he will have a 7-inch reach advantage as well. I think he could be the better wrestler as well, so I like him to be able to dictate where this fight takes place and I think he gets the win. Mokhtarian does have some nice submissions under his belt though so if he can land takedowns he could be live for a submission upset.
This won’t be a fight I start any lineup with, but it could be one that I use for my last spot because I have the salary for it. I don’t like either fighter’s skills enough to really want to target them, but I could see paths to finishes for either one of them, so I think they are playable. Choi at +145 ITD is the preferred play here for me and I do think he can finish here, I just don’t like his $9.3k salary so he won’t be a guy that makes many lineups. I think Mokhtarian will be one of the least owned fighters on the card and I think he could pull off a sub here, so that sort of makes me want to get some exposure to him. Either way, it will be because I have enough salary in my last spot to fit one of these guys and I will be hoping for a Choi decision win here, so I don’t get burned by not having too much exposure to him.
Winner – Seungwoo Choi via 3rd round (T)KO
Ciryl Gane $9,600 vs Tanner Boser $6,600
Ciryl Gane
Age: 29
Height: 6’5
Weight: 239
Reach: 83”
Gym: MMA Factory
From: France
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 62
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -650
Ciryl Gane continues to do things not most HWs do while impressing everyone. Not only did he dominate his last opponent Don’Tale Mayes, he heel hooked him in the dying seconds of the fight. Gane is 5-0 & very much looking like a future contender. Gane is also 12-0 in pro Muay Thai & his striking is great. He is not your typical HW. He has excellent movement, switches stances, is very fast & fluid. He does hold his hands down, but he’s light on his feet, bouncing in & out, & extremely hard to hit. He has great eyes & sees shots coming. Gane is 6’5 with an 83” reach & uses it very well. He has a nasty jab. He will snap the head back of his opponents with the jab & it comes very fast. He will follow the jab with nasty straights to the head & body. He will throw the jab, switch stances & rip the straight punch to the body from both stances fluidly. He slips punches effortlessly & will use his slips to create new angles for shots. He has barely gotten hit in the fights I’ve seen, while lighting his opponents up. He has a nasty left hook & right uppercut. He will throw hard leg & oblique kicks. Gane will throw occasional body & head kicks but is mostly a puncher. He does have nasty front knees to the body that look devastating. When he gets opponents moving backwards, he will mix in spinning kicks & spinning backfists. Gane so far in his career has been able to pressure, back his opponents up, make them miss easily, counter & take them out. When he gets fighters hurt, he has great composure & picks his shots or puts on a barrage until he gets the finish. Gane gets very creative when he gets opponents backed up against the cage. He will throw double punches, spinning backfists, jump knees and is very dynamic. Gane has 3 KO/TKO’s. I haven’t seen Gane tagged or how he reacts to that, but he hits very hard. I do feel he is a little bit hittable.
Ciryl Gane has earned a submission victory in his first two UFC fights. Gane is taller than most opponents so he is effective in the clinch. He has a nice Muay Thai plum and will get double underhooks when opponents get too aggressive on the feet. Gane was able to use the double underhooks to push his last opponent to the cage & get a body lock takedown. Gane catches kicks well & uses that to get takedowns. When he took top position in his last match, he quickly finished the fight with an arm triangle. Gane is very aggressive with ground & pound. He throws the legs away & moves into side control well. Gane has good front chokes. He dropped back for a last second heel hook in his last match and got the finish. He has three submissions in his five victories. Gane is very cool calm & collected & shown good cardio into round two. He doesn’t waste a lot of energy & is very fluid, so I doubt he will gas unless he’s forced out of his comfort zone.
Tanner Boser
Age: 28
Height: 6’2
Weight: 247
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: Hayabusa Training Centre
From: Canada
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 68
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +475
Tanner Boser earned a dominant decision victory in his UFC debut. He won a decision over Daniel Spitz, taking every round. Boser is a veteran & won’t be intimidated by a hype train like Gane. Tanner Boser is a low volume striker. He likes to work behind kicks & counter with punches. He will throw some occasional jabs to the head & body. He throws elbows as opponents try to close the distance. Boser has nasty leg kicks inside & outside. This is probably the best part of his game. He will throw heavy round & front kicks to the body & head. He has nice one-twos as opponents try to close the distance. He will throw counter hooks moving backwards, along with overhand rights. Boser is pretty flat footed & can come up short with a lot of his shots. He doesn’t tend to go first much & likes to be on the outside. That could be a problem for him in this fight against a much taller opponent. Boser does pick it up as the fight goes on usually. He will cut the cage off by switching stances and throw more volume. He is hittable, but he has a great chin. I have seen him take some bombs & show nothing. He has 7 KO/TKO’s, but definitely more of a volume fighter. He finished his last match with leg kicks. He has lost some decisions that I think were a bit raw deals & he could easily have a better record. He has been knocked out one time in his career.
Boser is not an offensive grappler. I haven’t seen him shoot many, if any takedowns at all or look for the clinch. He shows good balance & takedown defense against the cage. He will dig solid, double underhooks to circle off the cage & attack with knees. Denis Smoldarov, who’s a strong wrestler, was able to time some double leg takedowns, but Boser also showed a strong sprawl. Boser isn’t bad off his back. He has decent get-ups & will attack with kimuras. Boser has good cardio & will go to work off the breaks. His takedown defense to me is pretty good. He isn’t someone who will work on top much. He has two rear naked choke submissions early in his career. He has never been submitted.
Gane is the pick here and he can win with KO, submission, or a decision. Boser is going to need to land a ton of leg kicks and hope to out volume Gane here or knock him out. I don’t see that happening and I like Gane everywhere here. The line is too wide for me to play at this point though. Gane is going to be a contender for the HW belt before too long, in my opinion.
Gane is the biggest favorite on the card and he has a -185 ITD line. To win in round 1 he is +120. I think he is a great play in all formats if you can afford him, but I don’t think he is a must have at $9.6k. I could see him scoring under 90 in this fight though and he will probably be one of the highest owned guys. I think getting away from him makes a lot of sense but in cash games I would probably just lock him in. I think Boser is an interesting GPP punt because he is a HW and could get a lucky KO at no ownership. I just don’t know that I get there and if I do it would just be with 1 lineup max.
Winner – Ciryl Gane via 1st round (T)KO
Kyung Ho Kang $9,200 vs Liu Pingyuan $7,000
Kyung Ho Kang
Age: 32
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 73”
Gym: Busan Team MAD
From: South Korea
UFC Record: 5-2-1
Fight Matrix: 51
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -250
Kyung Ho Kang has done well since returning from his five-year layoff in 2018. He is 3-1 in the UFC with the one loss being a split decision. Kang tends to fight close, having 3 splits in his last 6 matches. Kyung Ho Kang is a big, strong BW with well-rounded skills. He likes to stalk opponents & keep heavy pressure. He will keep his hands low and tries to stay loose as he pressures, but he does get his guard up when he gets into range. He needs to be weary of that early, because Liu hits hard. He has nice round kicks to the body, and hard hooks. He has very smooth striking. He throws nice front kicks to the body and straight punches. He will throw spinning heel kicks and fight ending techniques, he is fast and keeps opponents at the end of his combinations. He can also move & counter, throwing nice counter right hooks, and hard leg kicks. He can get backed to the cage and shell up instead of moving. He has been dropped quite a few times in the UFC, but only KO’d once. He has good recoverability and the ability to push through bad situations and come out on top. Kang did eat a lot of low kicks which hurt him in his last match. He only has two TKO’s and isn’t much of a standing knockout threat.
Kang is primarily a grappler and has tremendous timing on his shots and strength on his body locks. He will also circle to the back and get standing rear naked choke position. He will also dive on guillotines. He has good double leg entries, and a great wrestler overall. He is good at controlling top position and landing ground and pound. He will achieve dominant positions on the ground like mount and throw hard elbows. He attacks with submissions like armbars and triangles. He is big and strong for the division and also has good cardio and is relentless with pressure. He has good scrambling ability, great accuracy with his ground and pound while standing in fighter’s guards. He is active & he will do enough to not get stood up. He was able to control Ricardo Ramos on the ground who is high level and avoided the submission attempts pretty easily. He is very calm in bad positions and hard to submit. He has good takedown defense, and if opponents do get him down, he has a great guard, and a good get-up game. Mr. Perfect has 11 career submissions.
PingYuan Liu
Age: 26
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 72”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: China
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 172
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +210
PingYuan Liu will be looking to bounce back from a devastating knockout loss. That was just five months ago, but he is getting right back in there. Liu is 2-1 in the UFC & this is a big fight for his career trajectory. It will be in enemy territory in South Korea. Liu is very aggressive, almost too aggressive. He is a sick athlete, with great physicality, but is still young & needs to gain composure & hone in his skills. Liu has a nice jab, and good one-two. His straight-right hand is very fast. He will throw powerful, overhand rights. He will throw jab, overhand rights or left hook, overhand right combinations. He will also start combinations with rear uppercuts that are powerful. He likes to throw spinning backfists which he throws very quickly. He has decent body & head kicks but not the best. He does catch kicks very well and is good at returning with powerful, straight punches while he has ahold of the leg. Liu does have good footwork and cuts the cage off well. His constant forward pressure is impressive & he has insane cardio. In his last match, he was able to catch a kick & counter, dropping his opponent in round 3. He was able to out grapple Martin Day & win the round in a fight that was 1-1. The problem with his striking is it’s a lot of big movements. He shows flashes of putting together good combos behind the jab, but he gets too crazy. He will overextend on punches. He will rush in giving up his hips for potential takedowns. He was sat down with a shot in his last match. He doesn’t move his head & will enter into range in straight lines. He was getting beat up at range in his last match rather easily and needs to be inside to be successful. He was ducking his head & overextending far too much in his last match, which ultimately led to him getting knocked out with a knee. He is cocky & willing to take one to give one. He will taunt opponents & walk forward & trusts his chin. Liu has 4 KO/TKO’s. He has been finished twice by strikes.
Liu is a very strong fighter. He isn’t a great wrestler, but his Jiu-Jitsu looks strong. He will try to use a blitz of punches to dive onto a single leg. He gets the majority of his takedowns through catching kicks and driving the opponent to the cage or just dumping them. When he gets opponents against the fence, he will attack with single & double leg takedowns. Liu is only 1 for 5 on takedown attempts in 3 UFC fights. He can get taken down when he’s too aggressive, but when he sees the shots coming, he’s great at defending them. He has a heavy sprawl and will use it to take top position. He has good front chokes. When he is taken down, he is very hard to hold down & will sweep to top position. He does not mind being on bottom & will even pull guard. He was almost able to get a jumping guillotine in his last match. He also pulled guard once in that fight. He works very well off his back. He will bring his legs high & try to trap an arm, so he can attack armbars or triangles. He will also roll for nice leg locks he can use to sweep. He was able to take the back of Martin Day in his last match, threatening with an armbar. In this fight, I feel he will want to avoid grappling & try to keep it standing. Liu has 5 submissions but has been submitted 3 times.
I do like Kang in this fight and I think he should have a big edge on the ground. He isn’t the smartest fighter though and puts himself in bad situations at times. I couldn’t lay this price on Kang, but I do think he gets the win. I think Pingyuan is a live dog here though if he can keep the fight on the feet and land some hard shots. He isn’t the highest fight IQ guy himself either though, so I don’t really want to bet him either. I think this is a pass fight on the betting line, but I will take Kang to get a submission as my pick.
I think Kang is going to be one of the better plays on the card because of his grappling advantage. He could get multiple takedowns and advances before he finishes this fight and score well over 100 points and be the highest scorer on the slate. I think he is in play in all formats and I could see him being close to a core play for me. I don’t see much upside from PingYuan unless he can get a KO here, so I doubt he makes my pool with 10 or less lineups. If I was making 10-20 lineups, he probably makes my pool in a lineup or two.
Winner – Kyung Ho Kang via 2nd round Submission
Marc-Andre Barriault $8,500 vs Jun Yong Park $7,700
Marc-Andre Barriault
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 73”
Gym: Patenaude Kung Fu
From: Canada
UFC Record: 0-2
Fight Matrix: 65
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -125
Marc-Andre Barriault entered the UFC on a high as a two-division champion in TKO. He has quickly been shown the UFC is a different level & is 0-2 in desperate need of a victory. Barriault has fought two tough, established veterans, and now is getting a pretty significant step down in competition vs Park. This will be Barriault’s first time fighting in Asia. Barriault tries to be a more technical striker & slow down the pace. He has a good jab both to the head & body, and a nice left hook. He will throw a left hook, straight-right hand. He will throw a left hook, right hook, right uppercut combination. He has good hand speed & does a good job of going over & around opponent’s guard with combination punches. He has decent footwork, but he can be flat footed at times & is heavy on his lead leg. He will allow opponents to back him up and can shell up at times when opponents get aggressive on him. He does have big power & has knocked out his last two opponents. He has 8 KO/TKO’s overall. He has never been finished.
Barriault is an average grappler in my opinion. He is strong in the clinch. He has nasty knees to the body & will throw heavy uppercuts and hooks to the body. He has solid wrestling against the cage. He is heavy in half guard & will slow cook opponents with short punches & elbows. He will try to trap an arm & let shots go. He has a decent back take. In his last win, he took the mount, showed strong control & finished his opponent brutally with punches & elbows. Barriault’s takedown defense is questionable. He can be flat footed & fighters are able to close the distance & push him against the cage rather easily. He can be out muscled in the clinch, and I have seen him get tossed head over heels more than once when fighters take his back standing. He will attack with a kimura to counter the attempt or create a scramble to stand up.
Jun Yong Park
Age: 28
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 73”
Gym: Korean Top Team
From: South Korea
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 187
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +105
Jun Yong Park was unsuccessful in his UFC debut. He had a fun back & forth war with Anthony Hernandez but was ultimately caught in a choke & submitted. Park will be looking to return to his winning ways in this contest. Prior to that loss he had won 7 in a row with 6 finishes. Park is a good striker. He has good movement, distance control & fast hands. He likes to slide in & out of range while feinting and working behind the jab. He has nice one-twos, & jab, right hooks or jab, overhand rights. He likes to throw a one-two to a left hook combination that’s money. Park has power in his hands & hurts opponents with punches but is more of a volume guy. He will touch opponents a lot with combinations before digging in with more powerful shots. He has nice counter hooks & uppercuts as opponents try to get inside. He is very accurate with his punches. He catches kicks & returns with punches also. He has nice kicks himself; good body & head kicks. In close range, he has nasty elbows & knees he will throw. He will use step-in knees to the head that put opponents away. Park can stand a little heavy on his lead leg & sometimes can get a little wild & just trade. He doesn’t move his head much & can be countered in the pocket. Anthony Hernandez had success when he walked him down, ate his counter shots & returned with power over the top. He rocked Park with some overhands & hooks. Overall, he is a good, technical striker with power. Park can strike going forwards or backwards. He has great cardio & will pick up the pace with his combinations when he sees opponents slowing down. He has very good flurries when his opponents are against the cage & it’s where he gets most of his knockouts. Park has 4 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes.
Jun Yong Park has shown questionable grappling skills. His wrestling isn’t at the level it needs to be & he can be controlled in the clinch. Park doesn’t use the proper techniques to defend body locks and can get taken down with wrestling shots fairly easily. He is dangerous with his Jiu-Jitsu. He utilizes front chokes to counter takedown attempts. He has a nice anaconda choke that he finished PFL fighter Ray Cooper with. He has good get-ups when he does get taken down. He does a good job of using the cage to stand up. He likes to go belly down to work his way back to his feet but can give up the back. Park won round one & showed he could stand up off bottom several times vs Hernandez. In round two, Hernandez landed some nice G&P & eventually finished him with a guillotine. Park must have been working to close the gap on his ground game & is actually fighting a striker in this matchup. Park has been submitted two times. Park is a fighter who has competed at 170 lbs & is smaller for the weight class. High level grapplers will certainly be an issue for Park. One of Park’s biggest assets is his cardio though. The pace of his fight in his UFC debut was crazy. Even if fighters take him down, he will never accept position or get tired. When he scrambles back up, he is right back in opponent’s faces with combinations. He is a fun fighter to watch for sure.
I think Park is going to have the edge on the feet here with his boxing and he will have the home field advantage as well. I think Barriault probably has more power, but I think he should look to wrestle to get the win here. If he can get takedowns and land some ground and pound, that could be all it takes to steal a close round. I am going to lean with the better boxer though and I will take Park to get his hand raised in a close back and forth fight.
I can see reasons for picking both guys here, but this isn’t a fight I love, and it does have a -240 FGTD line. I think Barriault is in play because he should look to wrestle here, and he could pay off his salary in a wrestling-based win. The line value is on Park though and I am picking him to get the win, so he is my preferred play of the two. It is not a confident pick to win but I do like the discount we are getting on him with a betting line that is close to even. I think that puts him in play in all formats, but I don’t see him having huge upside unless he gets a KO. I would probably go 1-2 of each guy in 10 lineups but if you wanted to full fade this fight and hope for a low scoring Barriault win, I wouldn’t talk you out of it.
Winner – Jun Yong Park via Split Decision
Mike Rodriguez $8,300 vs Da-Un Jung $7,900
Mike Rodriguez
Age: 31
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 82.5”
Gym: Lauzon MMA
From: Massachusetts
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 118
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -120
Mike Rodriguez is fighting for his UFC career in this contest. He has lost two of three matches, most recently losing a decision to John Allan as a huge betting favorite. Mike Rodriguez is a very dangerous striker but hasn’t put together his full MMA game. He is a great athlete. He likes to use a lot of oblique kicks to the legs, and front kicks to the body. He has powerful round kicks to the legs, he took Devin Clark off his feet with a leg kick. He has a nice jab, and fast straight-right hand. He doesn’t throw much in combination, and I feel he is nervous to let strikes go in close range for fear of being taken down. He has a good right hook and nasty round and front kicks to the body. In space, he is very dangerous. He will throw the front kick to the face, and he closes the distance with very nice jump knees. He dropped and finished his opponent on DWCS with a jump knee. He needs to improve staying at his range after he throws, and not getting so close where his opponent can tie up with him. Rodriguez has 7 KO/TKO’s in 9 wins. He has a good chin, and never has been finished by strikes.
Rodriguez is improving as a grappler and showed that against Devin Clark. He still gets too close to opponents on the feet and allows them to get inside and close the distance or duck under and take him down. He used to be extremely easy to takedown, but in his fight against Clark he showed improved takedown defense against the cage. He was using an underhook to deny the attempt and was landing nice short knees to the body. He was trapping the wrist of his opponent and throwing knees and elbows. He can be taken down with reactive double legs, but he’s gotten better at using the cage to return to his feet. He showed a nice sprawl in space, and attacks with Travis Browne elbows to the head. When he fought John Allan, he was taken down in round one & three with a body lock but worked back to his feet. In round two, he was able to deny a takedown & control Allan in top position from inside his guard. He was able to defend an armbar & guillotine. In the third round being controlled on his back is why he lost the round & subsequently the fight. He is still trying to put it all together & definitely needs to stay off his back in this one. Rodriguez has been submitted one time in his career but has decent submission defense. He has only one career submission. Rodriguez does tend to get a bit tired, but I feel if the fight is a striking fight he will be able to go a hard three rounds.
Da Un Jung
Age: 26
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 78.5”
Gym: Korean Top Team
From: South Korea
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 58
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W11
Betting Odds: +100
Da Un Jung will be looking to move 2-0 in his UFC career. Jung was able to weather the storm, and eventually finish Khadis Ibragimov. Jung is very composed in the cage. Da un Jung as a striker is a technical boxer. He works off a nice jab, good feints, & forward pressure. Jung will throw nice one-twos & jab, left hooks. His straight-right hand is very straight, tight & accurate. Jung will front & pull counter with a jab & right hand well. When he backs fighters up & starts to get them tired, he will put longer combinations together. He will touch opponents with punches & then stick them with powerful straights or uppercuts. Jung keeps a solid output out there & has good forward pressure. Jung will mix knees into his combinations to the head & body but doesn’t throw kicks often. He will throw occasional high kicks. Jung’s defense on the feet is not very good. He doesn’t move his head, is pretty flat footed, and willing to stand in the pocket. He doesn’t utilize a lot of movement. Jung was getting hit with heavy shots in the pocket by Khadis Ibragimov. He showed a good chin, but when he was hurt instead of using movement he would back to the cage & cover up. Jung has never been finished by strikes, but it came close in his last match. He doesn’t have one shot power, but his pressure & volume breaks a lot of opponents. He has 9 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Da Un Jung isn’t an offensive grappler. He isn’t an active seeker of the takedown, but I have seen him get double legs against the cage. Jung’s takedown defense looks a bit questionable, but he has strong get-ups. He will sprawl well on double legs. When he does get taken down, he is good at scrambling right back to his feet. He will hit switches & is good at reversing the takedowns & taking top position himself. On top, he is strong. He has good top control & has good passing ability. He will get the crucifix position & rain down elbows. He finished a recent opponent in that position. In his last match, Jung finished a very tired Ibragimov with a standing guillotine. He isn’t a big submission threat though, with just two in his career. Jung was submitted one time in his 3rd pro fight. Jung showed in his last fight he can weather a storm & take over late. He has heart, composure & good cardio. Fighting in his home country I’m sure he will want to put on a show.
I think Rodriguez is the more dangerous fighter here, but he might need the KO to get the win here in South Korea. I think Jung would be the fighter more likely to land more volume and takedowns. I don’t see Rodriguez going to enemy territory and stealing a decision win with his style. I think Rodriguez is the better overall striker and more likely to get a KO, but I couldn’t lay juice on him in this spot. If Jung can stay conscious, I think he will end up getting his hand raised.
This is a fight that could be important to target. Rodriguez has big power and could get 100+ from a 1st round KO. He also has terrible takedown defense and could be put on his back a lot which could lead to a decent score from Jung as the underdog as well. I like both sides of this fight and this is one I would look to get in half or more of my lineups. I will say Jung is my preferred play here, but I think Rodriguez has more upside with his finishing power. I would think they make 2-4 lineups each in 10 lineups that I build this weekend. It does only have a low chance of finishing early at -130 FDGTD, so we don’t have to target it and we could see a slower paced back and forth fight where each guy worries too much about what the other will do. I just like their salaries for the potential upside this fight has. GPP only for me though.
Winner – Da Un Jung via Unanimous Decision
Doo Ho Choi $9,400 vs Charles Jourdain $6,800
Doo Ho Choi
Age: 28
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: Busan Team MAD
From: South Korea
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 11 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -300
The Korean Superboy Doo Ho Choi is back after nearly two years away from the octagon. Choi is currently in the South Korean military serving his mandatory term and cannot travel outside of the country due to this. He has been training however I suppose & wants to jump in here at home and give it a go. The headliner of this event Korean Zombie has looked fantastic since returning from his military service so I’m sure Choi is taking some inspiration out of that. Prior to his departure, Choi had lost two fights in a row & was knocked out brutally by Jeremy Stephens. Choi is still 3-2 in the UFC & a marketable guy and getting a feature spot on this main card. After taking on two established UFC veterans he is taking on the other end of the spectrum with a 0-1 Charles Jourdain. Choi is a knockout artist with great accuracy. He has a nasty jab, and one of the cleaner one-twos in the UFC. The straight-right hand is the punch he finishes the majority of his fights with. He is very fast & has big power. He has a nice straight-left, overhand right combination. Choi will throw some nice standing elbows. His arsenal really isn’t that big & his right hand is relied upon heavily. Choi hasn’t thrown many kicks in the UFC. Choi’s defense is not the greatest. He uses a high guard, but opponents have had success landing overhands or hooks around the guard. Choi will back himself up to the fence, look flustered & drop his hands as he circles. He had this problem with both Stephens & Cub Swanson. Choi likes to counter kicks, but Jeremy Stephens had a lot of success with leg & body kicks. Doo Ho Choi is very composed & even when he’s hurt it’s hard to tell. He had an epic war with Cub Swanson. In his last fight with Jeremy Stephens, Choi was finished pretty brutally by ground & pound. It was his first KO/TKO loss. Choi has 11 KO/TKO’s & has won his last 8 fights via KO/TKO.
Doo Ho Choi has shown to be a strong clinch fighter. He is good at using his underhooks to duck under & take the back. He will suplex & trip opponents from that position. Choi has very nice foot sweeps. His takedown defense hasn’t been tested too much, but he did show heavy hips against Thiago Tavares. Choi isn’t a Jiu-Jitsu threat in his fights really. He has no submissions & never has been submitted. Choi is a very exciting, talented guy who will bring the fight, especially in his home country.
Charles Jourdain
Age: 24
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 69”
Gym: Academie Pro Star MMA
From: Canada
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 168
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +250
Charles Jourdain is looking for a different result in his second UFC fight as he gets to return to his natural weight class. Jourdain jumped in on short notice to take on Desmond Green at LW in May losing a decision. It was a competitive fight & at 24 years old Jourdain is constantly improving. If Jourdain can knock off Choi this will be a huge win for his career. Jourdain is a very good, athletic, range striker. He has heavy low kicks. Jourdain has a decent jab, but his lunging straight-right hand is very nice. He will throw a nice right hook to the body to a right hook to the head. He will also throw a right hook to the body to a left hook to the head, or a right hook to the body to a head kick. He has a decent overhand right. He will mix spinning backfists into his combinations & is very fast closing the distance. He has good flying knees. He will definitely push the pace & try to wear opponents down with body shots. He is tough & doesn’t break, he will continue to look for the finish until the last minute of the fight. He has good power & 6 KO/TKO’s in his career. Jourdain has taken much less damage than Korean Superboy & is more durable.
Charles Jourdain has improved his grappling immensely. A couple years ago he was getting taken down & held down for five consecutive rounds in a title fight. In 2019 he is stuffing multiple takedowns, constantly standing up from bottom against a D-1 wrestler. The fight with Desmond Green was also up a weight class at 155 lbs. Jourdain has shown poor takedown defense against double & single legs. He looks to be constantly working on his grappling but doesn’t use it offensively yet. He does have good front chokes he will use to counter takedown attempts. He has 3 career submissions & has never been finished. Jourdain showed great ferocity & cardio in his last fight really attacking hard until the final bell.
This looks like a setup fight to try and get Dooho Choi an impressive win in South Korea. This is a fight that should stay standing and I think Choi is the better striker, has more power, and will be the one throwing more volume. He is also very flashy and will have the crowd cheering him on. I think Jourdain is going to need a finish to get the win here and I don’t see that happening.
It is The Korean Superboy or pass here for me. He does have 100+ upside because he could land a lot of strikes and get a 1st round finish. I don’t see him looking to wrestle at all though and I doubt this would be a high paced war that would put him over 100 in a decision, so he will most likely need the finish to be on the optimal at this salary. I am not sure that happens, so he won’t be a core play for me, but I do want some exposure because it is totally possible, and he will probably be lower owned than Gane and Kang. Jourdain will be a fade for me though and even if I made 20 lineups I don’t see him making my pool.
Winner – Dooho Choi via 1st round (T)KO
Aleksandar Rakic $8,600 vs Volkan Oezdemir $7,600
Aleksandar Rakic
Age: 27
Height: 6’5
Weight: 205
Reach: 78”
Gym: Gym 23
From: Austria
UFC Record: 4-0
Fight Matrix: 18
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W12
Betting Odds: -145
Aleksandar Rakic is a very big, mobile & athletic LHW. He uses a lot of feints & stance switching & likes to be the aggressor. He is light on his feet with good distance control. He has excellent footwork. He is great at circling away from an opponent’s power and circling his back away from the cage. He will use his jabs and left hooks to angle back to the center. He has a nice jab & heavy leg kicks. He will throw oblique kicks to the knees as well. He has a solid lead left hook, and a very nice straight-right hand. He will mix in overhand rights. He doesn’t throw much in combination and uses a lot of one shot attacks. He is very good at freezing opponents with feints, landing a shot, and getting out. He has a very nice rear uppercut. He dropped Devin Clark with a backfist and then finished him with G&P. In his last match, he landed an absolutely brutal head kick which stiffened Jimi Manuwa up. Rakic is super-fast & explosive. He is going to be a problem as he improves, but this is a big step up. Rakic does hold his hands low and is hittable. He relies a lot on movement & sliding out of the way of shots but gets caught at times. He stands tall & can leave his chin in the air when he exits. He was dropped in his last match against Devin Clark trying to circle off the cage. He is a cardio machine though & recovers extremely quickly. I feel he has a solid chin, but you do not want to get hit clean vs Volkan like he was vs Devin Clark. Rakic hits hard himself & has 9 career KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished by strikes.
Rakic is extremely athletic, and his grappling has improved rapidly. In his UFC debut against Francimar Barroso, he was taken down multiple times, and had questionable takedown defense. Now he has very nice takedown defense and will use them to take top position himself. He will quickly dig double underhooks & take his opponent down. Against Justin Ledet, he also got him to the mat by sweeping the leg with leg kicks. He has a solid takedown game. He has good body lock takedowns, and ok double legs. He is very good at continuing to fight in the transitionary periods in between striking & grappling situation. He will be denied on a takedown attempt but uses that to create an opening for a punch or kick. In the fight with Ledet, he showed a strong top game. He was able to easily control position, posture up, & land nice hammerfists & elbows. He will also move to half guard & land heavy shots. He doesn’t look to move to mount or side control. He prefers to just keep position and land ground & pound. If he gets top position on Oezdemir, I feel Rakic could possibly do damage. Rakic only has one submission & was submitted in his one pro loss. His cardio is elite & I’m sure a big part of the game plan vs a fighter like Volkan will be pushing the pace.
Volkan Oezdemir
Age: 30
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: MMA Factory
From: Switzerland
UFC Record: 4-3
Fight Matrix: 10
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +125
Volkan Oezdemir is a big, powerful kick boxer. He has a nice jab, he will double and triple up on it as well as use it to attack the body. He will mix in lead left hooks. He has crazy power in his short hooks with both hands. He knocked out Misha Cirkunov with a 6” punch. He will throw a left hook, straight-right combo. He will throw a lead right or overhand right. He has heavy leg kicks, and strong body kicks. He will throw the occasional head kick, especially when opponents are trying to circle off the cage. He was landing beautiful step-in knees in his last match. Those won’t be available vs such a tall guy like Rakic most likely though. Volkan becomes very hittable when he gets tired & his shots come much more labored. He has a great chin, he is a long-time training partner of Anthony Rumble Johnson and took some huge shots against OSP and DC. He shows good ability to fire back when he is getting lit up and is always dangerous even when he’s hurt. He will stick in the pocket with a high guard and try to find his own openings to land shots. His defense can leave a lot to be desired at times. He doesn’t have great movement and tends to just back straight up to the cage with a high guard when he gets stung. If he is going to KO/TKO you it’s usually going to be early. He has 5 KO/TKO’s in under 1 minute, and 11 overall all in round one. He has been finished by G&P TKO one-time vs Daniel Cormier.
Volkan Oezdemir is improving a lot as a grappler. He showed a decent explosive double leg & body lock trip in his matches with Dom Reyes & Anthony Smith. In top position, he has shown brutal ground & pound early in his career, but Smith & Reyes were largely able to stay safe. His takedown defense has gotten way better. He sees entries coming & denies them much better, along with being an athletic guy as it is with heavy hips. When he was taken down by Ilir Latifi in his last match, he was able to dig an underhook immediately & stand back up. He is physically strong & does a good job of framing & throwing short punches & elbows. Hanging around in the clinch with Volkan is a scary proposition. He will be very aggressive with short hooks & uppercuts and put fighters out. We saw the brutal finish he had of Jimi Manuwa in similar fashion. Off Oezdemir’s back, he has looked like a fish out of water. He was dominated and finished by DC and has been submitted by Kelly Admundson & Anthony Smith. When Smith got the takedown in round 3 he was able to almost immediately take the back. Oezdemir showed some heart getting out of a deep rear naked choke, but Smith readjusted & ultimately got the tap. Oezdemir has one career submission & been submitted twice. Oezdemir has shown an issue with cardio in the past but pushed a very fast pace & didn’t get tired in his last match. That was his best performance in the octagon in my opinion. He trains with Ciryl Gane, who is a good look for Rakic, & also on this card should give him confidence and have him ready to go.
I like Rakic in this one. I think he is the better all-around fighter and I think he has the edge everywhere in this fight. On the feet, it could be close and Oezdemir could knock him out. I would still give Rakic the edge though and he will be the slightly bigger guy with a 3-inch reach advantage. I like his overall striking game more than Volkan and I think the only edge I might give to Volkan on the feet is the power. I think Rakic’s biggest edge here is going to be on the ground and I think he could steal any round with a takedown and some GNP.
This will be close to an all-in fight for me because of the -195 FDGTD line. Either guy could get a 1st round KO here and at their prices that should end up on the $10k lineup. My preferred play is Rakic and I think he is more likely for the KO as well as more likely to wrestle. He only scored 53 DK points in his first UFC win but since then he has had 119, 116, and 101. At this salary with so much riding on this fight, I am willing to make him a core play and hope for a score closer to that 100 range. I also want some Oezdemir as a hedge because I will have a lot of Rakic LUs. I don’t want to have 60-70% of my lineups be dead with a 1st punch KO from Volkan, so I want at least 1 lineup with him and I could even go all-in with 10 total lineups.
Winner – Aleksander Rakic via Unanimous Decision
Chan Sung Jung $9,000 vs Frankie Edgar $7,200
Chan Sung Jung
Age: 32
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 72”
Gym: Korean Zombie MMA
From: South Korea
UFC Record: 17-7
Fight Matrix: 15
Last Fought: 6 months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -170
The Korean Zombie is getting an opportunity to put on a show in his home country. His original dance partner Brian Ortega pulled out, but a nice replacement in Frankie Edgar has jumped in. Zombie will be looking to build off his first-round knockout of Renato Moicano. Korean Zombie has a nasty jab and throws it very stiff. Zombie likes to throw wide hooks to close the close the distance and get in a brawl where he is very dangerous. He likes to counter with straight punches, and he will throw the one-two when fighters close the distance on him. He has nasty uppercuts, and he will throw 4-5 in a row in close range when he sees the opening. He has a strong left hook, and it’s one of his more powerful punches. When he stalks opponents to the cage, he likes to throw flying knees and then unloads with punching combinations to the body and head. He has amazing cardio, and he does not get tired, and loves to throw down in the pocket so opponents have to trade with him to back him off. His defense is very bad, and he just really disregards it. He holds his hands low and doesn’t really feint much while throwing dangerous strikes that are easy to counter. He needs to be careful not to get caught with a kick in this fight and get hurt or knocked out. He has only been finished one time besides his injury vs Aldo, and it was a knockout by a head kick. He has 5 KO/TKO’s, and he is very dangerous especially in a 5-round fight.
Korean Zombie is a great grappler, he has a great body lock in the clinch. He also has nice trips in the clinch as well. He is also very good at catching kicks and taking fighters down off them. On top, Jung has nasty ground & pound elbows. He does a great job of getting posture and raining down blows. His Jiu-Jitsu is incredible, and he is able to transition on top very smoothly while looking for submissions. He has a nasty darce choke he caught Poirier with in their fight. He has gotten a twister as well in the UFC. He is very good off his back and extremely active with triangles and armbars. His takedown defense is awesome, he has a great sprawl and he will circle to the back and try to get to the back. He has 8 submission victories himself and has never been submitted.
Frankie Edgar
Age: 38
Height: 5’6
Weight: 145
Reach: 72”
Gym: Ricardo Almeida Jio-Jitsu
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 17-7-1
Fight Matrix: 5
Last Fought: 5 months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +150
Frankie Edgar is jumping in here on short notice. He was already scheduled to fight Cory Sandhagen in January at BW but wanted another pay day before the year ended. We will see if the gamble pays off for him as he travels to South Korea. Frankie Edgar is a wrestler boxer with a black belt, great cardio & durability. He has great footwork and likes to use technical boxing to stick & move, then explode in with combinations or a takedown attempt. He has very good counter hooks, especially the left hook and good leg kicks. Frankie is fast closing the distance & will fake level changes as he enters to create opportunities to land big overhands & uppercuts. He has been hittable over his career and hurt many times. His recoverability is legendary & he is one of the most durable fighters in the sport. Edgar was finished by Brian Ortega for the first time in his career in his last loss. His chin isn’t the same as it used to be.
Frankie Edgar is an excellent wrestler. He has amazing singles & doubles and some of the best wrestling in the sport. He sets his takedowns up with his strikes seamlessly. When opponents pressure, he will just duck under into blast doubles. He has good clinch takedowns also, and snaps opponents down into the front headlock position. He has great control from that position & will look for guillotines. When Edgar gets opponents down, especially against the cage, he will posture up from guard or half guard & rain down G&P. This was last shown against Yair Rodriguez as Frankie pummeled him with G&P until the fight was stopped. He isn’t a big submission threat & only has 3 career submissions; a guillotine and two rear naked chokes. Edgar won’t have to worry about getting taken down here, but he has an excellent guard & get-up game. Edgar has great cardio & is never out of a fight. This is a must win for his career, so he is going to bring it.
Edgar took this fight on late notice in a division 10 lbs heavier than the one he was training for. I think the size is going to be an issue here and I think Jung is going to win most of the striking exchanges. Edgar’s path to victory is going to be with takedowns and grinding out at least 3 of the 5 rounds. I think Jung gets the victory here, but I don’t think I will be playing him at this line. This fight is in South Korea though, so I think The Korean Zombie is going to be looking for the kill and I will take him to get a TKO win here.
On DraftKings, I am not exactly sure what I want to do on this fight, but I do think it is an all-in fight with it being 5-rounds. I think TKZ is much more likely to get a finish and his ITD line is +130 compared to Edgar at +490. I think even at his $9.1k salary, he still has a great chance of ending up on the optimal lineup in a win. I could see a case where he doesn’t though. If Edgar wins rounds 1 and 2 through wrestling, and then TKZ gets a KO in round 3, he is off the nuts lineup and possibly doesn’t even hit 10x. For Edgar, at $7.1k I don’t see any possible way he wins and doesn’t pay that salary off and end up on the optimal. I don’t really have a preferred play in this one and I would probably be close to 50/50 if I was MMEing. I think TKZ would be the guy I would prefer if making just 1 lineup, but I think he will be the more popular fighter as well, so I wouldn’t hate Edgar at lower ownership if I knew that was the case. I think this is a great stack in cash fight though but not a fight I would look to stack at all in GPPs.
Winner – Chan Sung Jung via 2nd round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: https://MMAoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/
- Bets are on a 1-10u scale with 1u = $100.
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