BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC 245 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card in Vegas. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $24.50 buy-in and $50k goes to 1st place with a total of $200k being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw a handful of entries at that $50k prize. Typically, I stay around 20 lineups each week and go after that big GPP and then max the $4 20-entry max GPP as well. I might go with 15 total lineups this week to max the $5 Qualifier as well. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Punahele Soriano $8,200 vs Oskar Piechota $8,000
Punahele Soriano
Age: 27
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 74.5”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 139
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: +100
Punahele Soriano will be making his UFC debut after defeating Jamie Pickett on the DWCS. The UFC must think pretty highly about him, because they are giving him a solid opponent on a PPV card. Soriano is an explosive striker & strong wrestler. Soriano is a nasty striker. He has big power & is very accurate. He has a nasty straight-right hand and a heavy one-two. He will throw a straight-right hand, left hook combination. He is good at pull countering in the pocket & is athletic for someone his size. When fighters hit him, he gets it right back with sharp return shots. He is at his best when he can back fighters to the cage & put punches together in combination. Soriano is still a bit wild & can really overextend on his punches. Jamie Pickett had success pot shotting him with jabs & straight punches. Soriano is a tough Hawaiian & has a strong chin. When he gets hit, he comes forward & won’t back down easily. Soriano has 3 KO/TKO’s himself & definitely has power.
Punahele Soriano is a state champion wrestler & a solid grappler also. He has good body lock takedowns & nasty ground & pound. He will use his punches to close the distance into double legs against the cage & in space. He will land big hammerfists punches & elbows in top position. In his last match, he was able to control Jamie Pickett on the ground for the majority of round three. He does a good job of using a front headlock series to snap & keep down opponents. He likes to take the back & has two rear naked chokes. I haven’t seen Soriano put on his back, but he is explosive & I imagine hard to take & hold down. Piechota is a credentialed black belt so he doesn’t want to be on his back in this fight. Soriano did get a bit tired in his matchup with Pickett and is still green. Prior to that fight all 5 of his wins happened in round one.
Oskar Piechota
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 76”
Gym: Piranha Grappling Team
From: Poland
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 125
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -120
Oskar Piechota is fighting for his career here. Piechota started his UFC career 2-0, along with being undefeated through 12 fights. Since then he has lost back to back fights, being submitted in both. I would say Piechota is an average striker. He is a southpaw & tries to fight at range. He has decent lateral footwork and will walk opponents into straight & overhand lefts. Oskar will throw heavy right hooks both to the body & head to setup the left straight. He will throw some short hooks & overhands inside but tends to counter & use one shot attacks. When forced to go first he will overextend on punches & look a bit awkward closing the distance. Fighters who can pressure him will draw out bad punches & be able to counter. Piechota seems to struggle with combination punchers & lacks defense. Piechota has solid rear leg attacks. He will throw dangerous high kicks which have earned him knockouts before. Piechota is a sniper & one shot can change the fight. He has a lot of one shot finishes. Piechota has 5 KO/TKO’s. Oskar is very tough & when he gets stunned he will plant his feet & go to war. We saw this against Gerald Meerschaert where he took a big onslaught of punishment. He has never been finished by strikes.
Oskar Piechota is a credentialed Jiu-Jitsu artist. He is a black belt under Robert Drysdale & ADCC competitor. He is going to have the Jiu-Jitsu advantage on the ground. Piechota is a decent wrestler. He times body locks in the clinch well & will chain wrestle against the cage. When he gets opponents down, he passes to side control aggressively, and forces opponents to give up mount or the back. When opponents try to belly down & stand up, Piechota has a good front head lock series. He will attack with Peruvian neckties to snap opponents back down & circle to the back. Piechota has a very good rear naked choke. In his fight with Gerald Meerschaert, he was out grappled & eventually submitted. Meerschaert was able to get a body lock fairly easily & when he took him to the ground & did some damage, Piechota gassed out very quickly. Meerschaert seemed much stronger when he got in on the clinch. Piechota has no quit in him on the mat & went out cold trying to fight the rear naked choke vs Meerschaert. Piechota’s bottom game looked better vs Rodolfo Viera, but he was ultimately submitted again. Piechota has a dangerous guard and was attacking with triangles & armbars. He will look to get the butterfly guard & stand back to his feet. If he is to get taken down by Soriano, I think he will have a much better chance at sweeping or submitting. Piechota does have 5 submissions but has been submitted in consecutive fights. Piechota has questionable cardio & needs to address that, especially in grappling heavy fights he tends to tire.
I see Soriano being the better striker in this match with more knockout power as well. I think Piechota’s best path to victory is through the grappling. We have seen him struggle with cardio in grappling heavy fights before though, so I wouldn’t have any confidence picking him here. I would rather have the plus odds either way in this match and I will take the newcomer Soriano in a close fight that could go either way.
This should be a good fight to target on DraftKings. It is the mid-range fight of the week and it has a -195 FDGTD line. Either of these guys could finish and both could win with grappling, so I think there is a decent shot of the winner paying off their salary and possibly ending up on the optimal lineup. I am not confident enough to use either guy in cash here, but I do want exposure in GPPs and I will likely be evenly exposed to the two. If I am making 15 lineups this week, they probably only make 1-2 lineups each so I won’t be heavily exposed, but I do want to be sure to get these guys into lineups. It is the first fight on the card and it always sucks when the winner of that fight scores over 100 DK points and you feel like your night is already over because you don’t have any exposure.
Winner – Puna Soriano via Split Decision
Viviane Araujo $8,600 vs Jessica Eye $7,600
Viviane Araujo
Age: 33
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Cerrado MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -175
Viviane Araujo is moving up the UFC ladder very quickly. She is 2-0 to start her UFC career & already fighting a former title challenger in Jessica Eye. Araujo is extremely aggressive. She walks opponents down throwing hard jabs & straight-right hands. She is light on her feet with very nice movement, switching stances & darting in & out. She is super-fast. She has very nice leg kicks. She throws good one-twos & has big power in her hands. She has a nasty jab, overhand right or jab, left hook combo. She has solid hooks in close range & very fast hand speed. She will load up on huge uppercuts. She knocked Bernardo out with one punch in her last fight. In her fights in Pancrase, she won her previous two by swelling the eyes shut of her opponents. She does major damage when she lands. Her kicks are very nice as well. She had nasty round & front kicks to the body. She will mix in spinning kicks & head kicks also. Her kicks are extremely fast. When she gets her range, she starts backing opponents up, switching stances & keeping the volume high, she’s a problem. She is hittable herself but doesn’t fear getting hit & returns right back. She also is heavy on her lead leg which leaves her susceptible to leg kicks. She is much better going forward than backwards. In her one loss she was knocked out by UFC fighter Sarah Frota. She has a similar matchup here to the fighter she fought last here. Davis & Eye are both fighters who are willing to eat shots to get inside or get takedowns. Araujo has 3 career KO/TKO’s.
Viviane Araujo is a great grappler. She is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu with strong wrestling, offensively & defensively. She fought a big, strong black belt in Jiu-Jitsu in her last match & defended all the takedown attempts. Davis was able to get top position & win round two with control, but that was after sweeping with a leg lock. Another opponent, Talita Bernardo, had previously been able to takedown top 15 opponents such as Marion Reneau & Irene Aldana, and Vivi was up a weight class. Araujo’s takedown defense looks top notch. She has very heavy hips & a great whizzer. She will reverse the takedown into top position herself. She was able to take the back of Bernardo more than once in her last match in the scramble after defending the takedown. If she does get taken down, she is active off her back with sweeps & subs. She will attack armbars & leg locks. She has very good blast doubles herself & is very aggressive with ground & pound. She will move to dominant positions with ease also. She has 4 career submissions & finished 7 of her 8 wins. Her cardio is a little bit questionable, but she won the first decision of her career in her last match.
Jessica Eye
Age: 33
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 66”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Ohio
UFC Record: 4-6-1
Fight Matrix: 4
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +155
Jessica Eye is fighting for the first time since losing her bid at the UFC FLW title. Eye was brutally knocked out via head kick. Eye is a boxer with good hand speed. She has a nice jab, and a good straight-right hand. She does a good job of using a lead left hook to a right straight combo. She has a good overhand right, left body kick combination. She likes to catch fighters as they close distance with the right hand. In her last fight, she was trying to use a high guard, head movement & hooks to get in the pocket. She will throw decent outside leg kicks and body kicks. She will go high with her rear kick, and front kicks to the body and face. She isn’t as fluid with her kicking game, and much more of a puncher. She doesn’t have big power, and just 3 TKO’s in her career.
Jessica Eye has tried to round out her game, and even competed against the likes of Meisha Tate in a Jiu-Jitsu competition. She has decent double legs and will try to get body locks in the clinch. Katlyn Chookagian was able to easily defend her takedowns and reverse the position, but her takedowns were effective against Jessica Rose Clark. She will throw heavy elbows, and search for submissions on top also. She has good back takes and will go for rear naked chokes. She also likes to attack with leg locks and will use the 50-50 position to get on top. Eye was taken down in her last match & dominated on the mat. She couldn’t get-up off bottom and was controlled easily. Eye will have the experience & cardio advantage in this one if her head is on straight.
Eye is coming off one of the most brutal knockout losses I have ever seen in WMMA and now she is fighting a girl who has looked pretty good so far and has KO power as well. I like Araujo to get the win here, but Eye could pull out a decision if she can have success with takedowns and hang onto top control. I think Araujo will be able to keep this standing though and I see her landing the harder shots and more volume.
On DraftKings, Araujo is going to be my preferred play here. I don’t see me getting a lot of this fight, but she has made some early builds that I have done, and I think she is live for a knockout. I don’t think that is likely though, so I will only get her in a couple lineups, but I think she is in play in all formats. For Eye, she is in play because I don’t like the underdogs on this card and she has a path to victory in a close fight. I don’t see much upside from her here, but she could get a 60-70-point win and if other underdogs don’t come through then maybe that gets the job done. I probably only get her in 1 lineup at most though, if I use her at all.
Winner – Viviane Araujo via Unanimous Decision
Kai Kara-France $8,500 vs Brandon Moreno $7,700
Kai Kara-France
Age: 26
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 66.5”
Gym: City Kickboxing
From: New Zealand
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 15
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -165
Kai Kara-France will be looking to keep the good times rolling & move to 4-0 in his UFC career. He is training out of the vaunted City Kickboxing gym. City Kickboxing has produced the current UFC MW champion Israel Adesanya & are undefeated in the UFC in 2019. Kara-France is going to try to control distance in this fight, keep Moreno on the end of his shots and walk him down while moving in & out of range. He does a great job of side stepping and using misdirection to find openings for his punching combinations. He has a great jab, both to the head and the body. He likes to draw out shots from his opponents, so he can slip and return. He has a nasty overhand right, left hook combination. He will pepper his opponents keeping heavy volume, doubling and tripling up on the jab before throwing a hard uppercut left or right hook. He is diligent attacking the body with hard hooks. He likes to throw fade away check left hooks as he’s angling off and slip overhand rights in the pocket. He has nice leg kicks and will throw high kicks at the end of combinations. When he starts to land specific combinations, he will feint the combinations, and then throw a different strike really keeping his opponents guessing. He has 10 KO/TKO’s and is a very good and dangerous striker in space. He has been KO/TKO’d 2 times. He seems to not deal with pressure or combination punching the best.
Kai Kara-France is a solid grappler. He isn’t an offensive grappler, and he uses his wrestling in reverse most of the time to keep the fight on the feet. He is very slippery and explosive when fighters try to take him down and will bounce right back up. He does a great job of getting his back to the cage when fighters attempt takedowns, and he’s able to stuff most. He has a great sprawl on double legs and does a great job of getting double underhooks and pushing off when fighters try to clinch up with him. His footwork makes it hard to jam him against the cage, because he does a great job of using lateral movement and staying in center of cage. He had a very competitive fight with Alexandre Pantoja in which he was able to stuff almost all his takedown attempts. In his last fight, he was taken down a few times and controlled for portions of time on the mat. I think that Moreno will be looking for takedowns, so he must be on point with the defense. In his match against Elias Garcia, he did an excellent job of getting on top after sprawling and showed great G&P. He will stand up in opponent’s guards & rain down accurate punches. He does a great job of floating & transitioning while keeping top position. He has strong G&P in the wrestling ride position and will force opponents to give their backs. He has been rear naked choked twice in his only two submission losses in MMA.
Brandon Moreno
Age: 26
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 70”
Gym: Entram Gym
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 3-2-1
Fight Matrix: 10
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: 1 Draw
Betting Odds: +145
Brandon Moreno started the second stint of his UFC career with a draw. He fought in his home country of Mexico & had a great performance against another strong competitor in Askar Askarov. Moreno won in a lot of people’s eyes, but not in the eyes of the judges. He is steadily improving, especially with his striking. Moreno has tighter defense & is improving with his boxing. He will throw a jab to the body & head. He has a very nice left hook. He will throw a left hook, straight hand combination. He will throw a left hook to the body and then to the head combination. Moreno has a very dangerous overhand right & right uppercut. He has big power & will hurt opponents with one shot. He throws a lot of long, looping shots that he can land from long range, but tightens up the hooks & uppercuts in the pocket. He will attack the left hook to the body a lot & then change it up to an uppercut that fighters don’t see coming. Moreno is still a leaner & overextends on his punches. He can get caught with counter shots inside, especially against sharp strikers like Kara-France. He has really struggled with sharp, straight shots, especially the jab. Moreno doesn’t throw nearly as many kicks as he used to, but still has a dangerous head kick. He has dropped two opponents with head kicks in the UFC including his last opponent. He will mix the head kick into combinations & times it well. Moreno is getting the chance to defeat a style he hasn’t had success with in the past. Brandon Moreno has had a lot of success against grapplers but is 0-3 vs strikers in his UFC career. He is a bit sporadic with his output. He can circle & be very low volume, and then just explode. He is opportunistic & if he lands a shot that hurts his opponents then he wins the round. If he doesn’t, he usually gets out volumed especially by more technical strikers. Moreno is durable never being finished by strikes. Moreno has two KO/TKOs but is dangerous on the feet.
Brandon Moreno is an elite grappler. His scrambling ability is top notch, and he has proved that in his last two fights. His ability to create scrambles off his back that he’s able to take advantage of is incredible. Moreno has gotten better at his timing on his double legs. He will get in on the legs, circle to the back and look for throws or trips. Moreno has good top control & ground & pound. He has nice guard passing skills & back takes. He will get the body triangle & is very good at sliding the arm under the neck. Brandon Moreno has strong takedown defense & dangerous attacks to counter the attempts. He will use front knees, head kicks & uppercuts to try to discourage level changes & hurt opponents shooting in. If opponents do take Moreno down, he is immediately attacking with triangles, armbars & sweeps. He is extremely hard to hold down & catches opponents in the scrambles. Moreno has been competing in combat Jiu-Jitsu & obviously that’s the strongest facet of his game. His rear naked choke is his most dangerous submission. He has 10 career submissions. Moreno was submitted by Alexandre Pantoja on TUF. Moreno being Mexican has excellent cardio & is live & looking for the finish at all times.
I like Kara-France to win a striking match here. I think Moreno is a live dog, but he will have to have success on the mat to win a decision here. Kara-France is the better all-around striker and he should be landing the higher volume as well. I think he will be able to stuff most takedowns and win a 30-27 decision here.
I like Kara-France to get the win here, but Moreno is my preferred DK play. I think he is one of the more live underdogs on the card and that is really all I am looking for this week. I won’t have a lot of exposure to any one underdog, so I will just be spreading my exposure around and Moreno will make the pool. I don’t see Kara-France getting a finish here though or looking to grapple so he will likely be a fade for me and I will be hoping maybe FightMetric decides to screw his stats up this week instead of one of the fighters I am picking.
Winner – Kai Kara-France via Unanimous Decision
Chase Hooper $8,300 vs Daniel Teymur $7,900
Chase Hooper
Age: 20
Height: 6’1
Weight: 145
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: Combat Sports & Fitness
From: Washington
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 193
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -115
Chase Hooper is making his UFC debut at just 20 years old. Hooper was given a developmental contract after earning a victory on the DWCS in 2018. He has gone 2-0-1 since then, most recently defeating former Titan FC champion Luis Gomez. Hooper is a 6’1 FW who will be 8 inches taller than his opponent in this matchup. Hooper tries to fight long on the feet & is a southpaw. Hooper is still very green on the feet. He will work behind his one-two, and his straight-left hand which is fairly accurate. He really doesn’t throw many punches besides that combination. Hooper is very kick heavy. He has no fear of his kicks being caught because he wants to be on the ground anyways. Hooper will throw nice front kicks to the body & head. He will throw knees up the middle as well. He can go to the well with those kicks a bit too much & get countered and stunned. He has been hurt badly in multiple fights but does have heart & durability. He is also able to flop to his back where he is confident he can defend himself. Hooper does not have good hands & if opponents can cut the cage off & force him to fight in close quarters, he has nothing. He stands tall & is very hittable both to the body & head. He also lacks the power to back opponents off him. Hooper has two TKO’s, but both were on the ground. He is undefeated & going to come in with confidence. His chin is strong now, but I am worried about him getting hit so much at a young age. His career may not be very long. Hooper needs to get this fight to the ground any way he can here. He is outmatched on the feet.
Chase Hooper is a dangerous submission artist. Hooper has four submissions in eight wins. He is comfortable on top & on his back. The problem with Hooper is he hasn’t quite gotten efficient with his wrestling. He rarely shoots takedowns, and just lacks the drive to finish most of the time. Hooper will actually time singles & doubles well, but usually can’t finish. He will clinch up, pull guard and has no issues being on his back. He will immediately look for triangles, armbars & leg locks. Hooper’s length creates a lot of issues for opponents. Even when they pass his guard, he will still lock up inverted triangles. He will simultaneously be looking for armbars, kimuras & leg locks if opponents give the opening. Hooper has excellent sweeps as well, and in top position is solid. The flexibility in his legs allows him to create 50-50 positions or back takes that are very unorthodox. He usually is able to win the scrambles & take top position. He had a sick, deep half guard sweep against Luis Gomez in his last match. In top position, he will get the mount & work opponents over with hard shots until they give their backs. When they do, he is pretty proficient at locking in rear naked chokes. Hooper has had issues sticking submissions in the past, along with holding down explosive athletes. Hooper usually needs to take a beating to get opponents tired before he can control them. Chase Hooper won’t usually defend takedowns traditionally. He will use front chokes to snap opponents down and flows between guillotines, anacondas & darces. Hooper is going to have the advantage on the mat and is opportunistic with submissions. Hooper is a gamer & has no quit. He will survive through adversity & finish or take over the fight late. His ground game is very high level & dangerous. Teymur definitely needs to avoid getting put on his back, especially if the fight goes late.
Daniel Teymur
Age: 31
Height: 5’5
Weight: 145
Reach: 69”
Gym: Allstars Training Center
From: Sweden
UFC Record: 1-3
Fight Matrix: 289
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -105
Daniel Teymur earned his first UFC win in his last match. After going 0-3 in the UFC, Teymur kept with it & finally earned a decision victory. Even with that victory I still believe Teymur is fighting for his UFC career again here. Teymur is very explosive & usually has strong starts. He closes the distance quickly with hard leg kicks & overhands. He has a nice, left hook, overhand right combination. His overhand right is accurate & powerful. He has a good, left hook lead. He has a nasty uppercut and will throw an uppercut, left hook combination. He will throw a lot of elbows in close range. When he gets inside & has opponents hurt, he will get wild & throw looping shots. Fighters are able to counter & hurt him as well. He will throw hard body kicks & head kicks. He also throws a lot of spinning backfists & elbows. When he lands a combination, he will fall in love with it and throw it over & over until it becomes predictable. When he gets tired his hands go low, but he still doesn’t know how to recover & pace himself. He will attempt to throw the same explosive techniques he uses in round one, but they come much slower & labored. Opponents can easily evade & counter and he almost becomes a punching bag. Teymur showed he could win a decision in his last match also winning round 3. He does have power with 3 TKO’s. He has a questionable chin. I have seen him essentially finished, and have the fight restarted in a wild scene in a regional fight. He has never been finished with strikes.
Daniel Teymur isn’t a bad grappler, especially early. He has nice knees & elbows in the clinch. He has good clinch takedowns. He will get in the guard and land elbows. He has good takedown defense, and when he does get taken down early, he explodes back up. I do feel his looping shots make it easy for opponents to get inside on him & create grappling situations. In his last match, in the first round he was able to shuck Fishgold off his back & land some nice ground & pound from side control. He is aggressive when he takes top position & worries more about damage than control. As he tires, he can get taken down with double legs against the cage & doesn’t have much off his back. He got mounted against Danny Henry & beat on for a huge portion of round three. He also got submitted by rear naked choke vs Julio Arce & Chris Fishgold. He gives his back when he stands up, and it gets him in trouble when his movements become more labored. Teymur has 3 submissions & has been submitted twice himself. He needs to avoid grappling in this fight & keep it standing.
This is going to be a striker vs grappler fight. If Hooper can’t get this fight to the mat, I think he is in trouble and could get knocked out. However, he should have a big edge on the mat if he can land takedowns. He is only 20 years old and should be improving every fight. I will lean with Hooper here but zero confidence in that pick. This is 50/50 IMO.
My preferred play here is going to be Teymur just because he is the cheaper guy. If the prices were flipped or the same, then I would rather have Hooper. I am struggling to find dogs though, so I would rather just take the discount on Teymur here and I do think he can win with a KO or a striking decision. He will need the KO to score highly here I would imagine, but I think he can get near 10x in a decision win, so I do want exposure. I am going to be using a lot of all 3 champs this week so most other favorites are going to be priced out of a lot of my lineups this week and Hooper could be a guy that happens to. I think he is a solid GPP play though and I think he could get a 1st round submission at fairly low ownership. I will try to get a lineup or two with him if I can, but it will be hard to afford in most.
Winner – Chase Hooper via 2nd round Submission
Matt Brown $9,300 vs Ben Saunders $6,900
Matt Brown
Age: 38
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 76”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Ohio
UFC Record: 14-10
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 2 Years 1 Month
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -345
Matt Brown is returning from a long layoff of over two years. He suffered a torn ACL in the lead up to his bout with Carlos Condit, in April of 2018. This will be his first fight since November 2017, so I’m sure he will be pumped up to get in there. Matt Brown is coming off a savage knockout of Diego Sanchez but has still lost 3 out of his last 4 fights. Brown is only 2-6 since 2014. Everyone knows how Brown fights by now. He is a blood & guts warrior who comes for war. Brown will use a jab & some low kicks, but he wants to get inside, back fighters to the fence & put damage on them. Inside, Brown hand fights & parries well. He throws nice combinations and attacks the body well. Brown has a nice left hook, right straight combination mixing the strikes up to the body and head. He will mix in tight hooks & uppercuts into the combinations along with nasty elbows. Brown will throw some nice head kicks. Defensively, Brown leaves a lot to be desired. He moves his head fairly well but likes to trade & take damage. He also keeps a high guard & has always been weak to the body. He is still a fairly durable, dangerous guy with 14 career KO/TKO’s. He has been TKO’d twice himself.
Matt Brown is an underrated grappler in my opinion. He has a strong clinch attacking with dirty boxing, elbows & knees. His wrestling is much better than people give him credit for along with his cage grinding ability. Brown has the capabilities of slowing fights down & being more methodical. He will use the knees & elbows in the clinch to create openings for trips & body locks. Brown has nice ground & pound. I don’t think he will have to worry about takedowns here, but he has struggled with double legs while pressing forward in the past. Brown has struggled with submission defense over his career & he should avoid grappling in this contest. Brown has 6 career submissions. He has been submitted 11 times, but only by Demian Maia in recent memory.
Ben Saunders
Age: 36
Height: 6’3
Weight: 170
Reach: 77.5”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Florida
UFC Record: 9-9
Fight Matrix: 94
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: +285
Ben Saunders has had a really rough go as of late. Saunders has lost 5 of 6 fights, being finished all 5 times. He is in desperate need of a win. “Killa B” is still an OG & comes to fight every time. This will be his 20th UFC fight and he has seen the scorecards just 5 times. Saunders is a long, rangy southpaw. He has a decent one-two & a nice, straight-left hand. He will eat shots to return with the straight-left & he has power. He likes to throw a check or lead left hook as well. He can overextend on his punches at times & leaves a lot of counter opportunities. When he gets rocked, he will reach for the clinch at times, instead of using movement, leading to him being knocked out. He has solid kicks. He will throw nice inside leg kicks & good front & round kicks to the body. He will throw high kicks also & has power when he lands. He can get his kicks caught & sometimes throw them without setting them up, or without enough space & gets countered. He will pressure forward, be very aggressive & make it a kill or be killed type of fight if he has too. He is willing to take punishment, stick in the danger zone & fire back. He is slow & I feel he is going to really struggle with the movement, distance control & counters of Brown. Saunders is extremely tough & will continue to fire back unless you put him out cold. He has taken a lot of losses, but he has unwavering confidence which still makes him dangerous. He has 11 KO/TKO’s & has been finished 7 times by strikes. His ability to take a shot is severely diminished.
Saunders is a solid Jiu-Jitsu player & dangerous in the clinch. His last win was due to a knee to the body in the clinch vs Jake Ellenberger. He has strong knees to the body & head & will mix in hard elbows to the head. He can leave too much space in the clinch & get hit with big shots himself, uppercuts & hooks over the top along with big elbows. He is willing to exchange in the clinch & has the heart of a lion. Saunders isn’t a wrestler & only has 5 takedowns attempts in his 17 fight UFC career. His takedown isn’t great & I feel he invites fighters to go in his guard. He has worked hard with Eddie Bravo to perfect his rubber guard & it’s one of the best in MMA. He is good at using it to land elbows & punches along with going for submissions. He has one of the few omaplata finishes in UFC history against Chris Heatherly. He has gotten that rubber guard neutralized in the past. Patrick Cote was able to use posture to avoid it & win with top control. Sergio Moraes easily was able to pass his guard & eventually got a submission. Saunders is a veteran, he’s seen it all & has great cardio always coming prepared. Saunders has 6 submissions & only been submitted once.
This is one that likely won’t need the judges. These guys are both near the end of their careers and have clear paths to be finished. Saunders way to win is likely through body shots. I think he should look to land kicks to the midsection or clinch up and try to finish with knees to the body. If he can’t get a finish that way, then I don’t see his chin lasting 15 minutes. That is his clear weakness and he has been knocked out 8 times, including 4 times in his last 6 fights. I see Brown getting the KO at some point here but it’s dog or pass on the betting line for sure.
So, this is the hardest fight for me to know what to do with. Everything says it is the perfect GPP fight to target with a -485 FDGTD line and Brown ITD at -186 is the highest ITD line on the slate. Brown makes all the sense here, but for guys like me who want all 3 champs in their lineups, we can’t really afford him. I think a lot of people will have that same issue, so he probably won’t be as owned as he should be, but he is the perfect GPP pivot from Nunes who will probably be twice as owned. If Brown gets a 1st round KO and Nunes scores less than 100 points, then he is going to pass most of the field and that is what wins GPPs. I do want Brown exposure here, but I won’t get as much as I want because I am basically all-in on the title fights. I will get him in my Colby and Volk LUs, but so will everyone else I am sure so it’s not being any different there. Saunders is a fine GPP only punt because he could get a finish as well since Brown is weak to the body. However, he could also score 0-points because his chin is gone. I will get him in at least 1 GPP lineup though.
Winner – Matt Brown via 1st round (T)KO
Ian Heinisch $8,400 vs Omari Akhmedov $7,800
Ian Heinisch
Age: 31
Height: 5’11
Weight: 185
Reach: 72”
Gym: Factory X Muay Thai
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 19
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -140
Ian Heinisch will be looking to get back on the horse after a decision loss to Derek Brunson. Heinisch was a sizeable favorite going into the fight, but showed he is still green & needs to improve. Heinisch is an explosive finisher who goes in there to take opponent’s heads off. He is very athletic & puts the pressure on right away. He is constantly feinting the takedown & trying to come over the top with hooks & overhands. He has nice round & front kicks to the body. He can throw the kicks without setting them up and be hit clean or taken down off them. He does a great job of closing the distance and throwing a left hook into a double leg or faking a double leg and coming over the top with his right hand. He has massive power, and one shot can put fighters completely unconscious. He has 4 career KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished by strikes and is a rough and rugged fighter who I think you would have to put out to stop him.
Heinisch is a great wrestler. He is very physically strong & wears fighters out in extended grappling situations. He is always attacking & aggressive with his Jiu-Jitsu. He is a former Division ll college wrestler, and he has explosive double leg shots. He does a great job of setting his shots up with punches. He will stalk opponents to the cage, close the distance and shoot double and single leg shots. When he takes fighters down, he works quickly and likes to get to half guard where he will rain down heavy elbows. He can put fighters’ unconscious with elbows and is a scary individual in top position. He does a great job of putting his opponent’s head against the cage & throwing G&P where it’s hard to throw up submissions. He has good chokes and will attack with guillotines and front chokes. He jumped on a guillotine against Cesar Ferreira, and almost finished. He also almost finished an armbar at the end of round 1. When he was taken down, he was able to attack with submissions & eventually scramble to his feet. He wore Ferreira out and took over down the stretch in the fight. He did the same to “Shoe face”. He was submitted by Maluko Perez. He has 2 submissions & one submission loss.
Omari Akhmedov
Age: 32
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 73”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Russia
UFC Record: 7-3-1
Fight Matrix: 16
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +120
Omari Akhmedov will be looking to continue the success he has had in recent years. Akhmedov is unbeaten in over 3 years and hasn’t lost since moving to MW. He is defeating name opponents now & a win over Heinisch will likely give him a top 15 opportunity. Akhmedov is a solid striker. He can strike going forward or backwards. He likes to use lateral movement & walk opponents into leg kicks, hooks & overhands. He throws pretty nasty, inside low kicks & will wing dangerous hooks & overhands. He has a pretty good straight-right hand as well. When Akhmedov goes forward, he doesn’t throw a lot of variety, but a lot of volume. He will come forward throwing big, looping hooks. It’s a Russian style striking, big, casting hooks to close a lot of distance. He does a good job of using his lead hand to gauge distance & then leaping into them. He has a nice straight-right hand, left hook combination. He will attack the body as well with straights & hooks. When he goes forward & gets confidence, he will get very aggressive. He has some good body kicks & throws front kicks to the face. His defense isn’t the best. When he’s in the pocket, he throws a lot of wide shots. Opponents are able throw tighter, straight punches & counter him. When he gets hit, he will just back up in a straight line. Marvin Vettori was able to put together some long punching combinations by just continuing to pressure forward. Akhmedov can be low output at times & just try to pot shit from the outside. He can allow opponents to control the center & throw more volume especially in the later rounds. He has been stunned & knocked out in the past but is very durable. He can take a lot of damage & has big heart. When he gets stunned, he will plant his feet & trade. He is actually very dangerous when he’s hurt. Akhmedov has been TKO’d in his two UFC losses. He throws hard & if he connects opponents are in trouble. He has 7 KO/TKO’s including 2 in the UFC.
Omari Akhmedov is a strong grappler. He doesn’t have the cardio or top game to grind for three rounds so he wrestles in spots. In his last fight with Tim Boetsch, he did have good clinch control. He was able to dig double underhooks and control the bigger fighter. He landed some nice shoulder shrugs & knees to the body. He went for a few body lock & trip takedowns but couldn’t land any. He has shown some good single & double leg takedowns. When he fought Abdul Razak Alhassan, he used his striking to set takedowns up very well in that fight. He doesn’t have the greatest top control, and fighters’ get-up from bottom on him. In this fight it’s interesting, because I’m not sure Akhmedov wants to try to takedown a BJJ player like Heinisch. Akhmedov has 5 submissions, but none in the UFC. He has been submitted twice in his career. Akhmedov also tends to gas out especially when opponents put pressure on him.
This is a close one, but I am going to lean with Heinisch. I think Heinisch is the better striker and will be landing more strikes here. I don’t see either guy getting a finish, but I think for Akhmedov to win, he is going to need to land takedowns and win at least two of the rounds by putting Heinisch on his back. I think he could win one round that way, but I don’t see him getting two.
I really have no interest in this fight for DraftKings. I don’t think 1 of my 15 lineups will have this fight because I really don’t see much upside here from either guy. I think cash games are where my action would be in this fight if I need a 6th option that falls in their range. Heinisch fits in perfectly with the dub stack so I am not against that. Otherwise this fight is a fade for me.
Winner – Ian Heinisch via Unanimous Decision
Ketlen Viera $8,800 vs Irene Aldana $7,400
Ketlen Viera
Age: 28
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Nova Uniao
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 4-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 9 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W10
Betting Odds: -170
Ketlen Viera is finally returning to the scene after an extended layoff for an ACL year. Before the injury she was on the precipice of a title shot. Vieira is 4-0 in the UFC & 10-0 overall. At 28 years old she is still young & should be able to bounce back strong. Ketlen Vieira is a Pitbull. She is extremely aggressively, very big, and physical for the division. Vieira is a forward pressure striker. She isn’t the fastest fighter in space, but she knows that. She likes to be all the way in or all the way out, usually inside backing her opponents towards the cage. Vieira doesn’t really throw a lot of long range strikes. She will wait until she gets in the pocket & that’s where she lets off combinations with power. Vieira will walk into some punches & kicks, but she is very sturdy & durable. When she gets inside, Vieira has excellent hand combinations. She parries & hand fights very well. Vieira has big power & very sharp punches. She has a very nice jab & left hook. She will throw left hook, straight-right hand combinations. Vieira will also mix in hook & uppercut flurries. She has big power & when she lands, fighters get big eyes & back up. They do not want to exchange in the pocket with her. Vieira is going to have to get inside & cut the cage off in this fight. At range, Aldana has much more diversity with kicks & faster feet. Aldana is going to be looking to pot shot & move, and Vieira has to negate that. If Vieira can get inside & force Aldana to trade punches, I feel she will have success. She is definitely more powerful than Aldana. Vieira has 2 TKO victories & has never been finished by strikes. She is very durable & a terminator.
Ketlen Vieira is a very strong grappler. She is a black belt in judo & Jiu-Jitsu. Vieira doesn’t shoot takedowns at range, but she will back opponents up, get them in the clinch & work from there. She has excellent body lock trips to go with big judo throws. On top, Vieira is very good. She is heavy & has solid ground & pound. Vieira is very comfortable in half guard, controlling, doing damage & looking for arm triangles. She has a good squeeze & was able to submit Sara McMann with it from half guard. Vieira will also look for kimuras from that position. Her other go to submission is the rear naked choke, but she hasn’t been able to get the back position in any of her four UFC fights. Vieira is a dog & has solid cardio. She is 4-0 in decisions with 6 finish victories. Vieira has 4 career submissions.
Irene Aldana
Age: 31
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 68.5”
Gym: Lobo Gym MMA
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 4-3
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +150
Irene Aldana is in good form right now winning 4 of her last 5 fights. She is coming off a dominant win in October over Vanessa Melo. Aldana has been able to defeat that level of competition, but when she has been given the step up she’s fallen short. For instance, she lost to Raquel Pennington earlier this year, and is still looking for that breakthrough win. Aldana is a slick boxer who strikes at range and controls distance very well. She has great footwork & lateral movement. She has a nasty jab, and heavy leg kicks. She has a nice one-two and her straight-right hand is very fast and accurate. She will throw nice, counter left hooks. She will throw a jab, straight-right, uppercut combination. She will also throw an uppercut to straight-right hand combo. She is very fluid with her combinations & has good power and hand speed. Aldana doesn’t move her head when she throws much & can get hit with jabs & hooks entering range. She isn’t great fighting backwards, she will do a lot of leaning back & covering up. When Rocky went forward & threw combinations, she had a lot of success. She is heavy on her lead leg & can be kicked. She also can be hit to the body because she uses a high guard. She is the significantly faster fighter with her foot speed in this matchup & she needs to try to fight long. She isn’t much of a kicker, but she has good leg kicks, and will occasionally land a body kick. She was throwing more front kicks to the body in her last match and she should throw those here. She is good at staying in the pocket & countering with combinations. Aldana doesn’t hit as hard moving backwards, and fighters are willing to eat her shots to give one. She has 5 career KO/TKO’s. She has been TKO’d twice. I think she is a bit on the chinny side, but she’s very tough.
Aldana is very physically strong, and good in the clinch with knees and elbows. She won’t go for takedowns very often. She is just 2-4 on takedowns in her UFC career. She has solid takedown defense and does a great job of digging double underhooks and reversing the takedown and taking top position. She has strong elbows on top and will attack with submissions as well. She likes to take the back & has solid rear naked chokes. She sprawled on a bad takedown attempt of Bethe Correira, took the back & locked in an armbar. She is good in the scrambles and usually lands on top. She can be controlled against the cage & taken down by fighters who can setup takedowns with strikes. She has great get-ups though & overall is a good grappler. She was able to deny & reverse position on almost all the takedown attempts of Pennington in her last match. When she was taken down, she aggressively looked for leg locks. She has good cardio and will push for all three rounds. She is a finisher and has finished 7 of her 8 wins. She has three submissions all by rear naked choke.
Aldana is one of my favorite underdogs on the card. I think she has the better striking and will be the one landing the higher volume on the feet. If she can keep this fight standing, then I like her to win. Vieira is going to have the edge on the ground though and she probably will land takedowns in this fight. Aldana has shown weaknesses off her back before and I think she will have problems here as well. I think Vieira is the rightful favorite here, but I will side with Aldana since she is the dog.
I think this is a decent fight on both sides to target. I will likely only get to Aldana in my lineups, but Vieira is a fine play as well because she will be the one looking to grapple in this fight. She could land multiple takedowns in multiple rounds and she could also pull off a submission. The way I see my builds going I don’t see her making my list, but if you are higher on the title contenders then she is a good play. I will be rooting for Aldana to stuff takedowns here though because she fits nicely into my builds and I do think she will win this fight if it stays standing. She has enough volume to easily pay off 10x in a decision win here, so I will be hoping she can pull of the win and rack up significant strikes. Hopefully FightMetric counts them.
Winner – Irene Aldana via Split Decision
Geoff Neal $9,100 vs Mike Perry $7,100
Geoff Neal
Age: 29
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 75”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 4-0
Fight Matrix: 33
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -255
Geoff Neal will be looking to become the unofficial “Florida Man” champion with back to back victories over Niko Price & Mike Perry. Neal has looked phenomenal, destroying all four of his UFC opponents. Geoff has three finishes in four wins & has dropped all four fighters he’s fought. Neal has some of the cleanest striking in all the UFC. Neal seamlessly switches stances and has a nasty straight-left & straight-right hand. He has a nasty jab and will double & triple up on it. He has great distance control, and the ability to slide in & out of range. He will swarm with one-twos when he has opponents hurt, but still keeps his composure & won’t brawl. Opponents seem very surprised at how far out he can hit them, and he has phenomenal extension on his punches. His punches come so fast & clean that fighters don’t see them coming. He had a nasty head kick knockout in his last match, and flashed superstar potential. I feel as long as he stays composed and controls the distance, he will have an advantage on the feet. Neal got rocked with a headbutt when he flurried in & didn’t respect Niko Price. He has to learn from that & not do it again here. Neal has 6 KO/TKO’s and has been finished once by strikes against MW Kevin Holland. I also feel that stoppage was a bit premature.
Geoff Neal is a strong grappler. He is improving with his takedown defense and is very hard to hold down. He is super explosive, and when opponents get him down, he bounces right back to his feet. He is strong in the clinch and will get a double underhook position and land hard knees. He also has nasty elbows. He does a great job of disengaging the clinch when fighters put his back against the cage and returning to the center. He did a great job of defending all the takedowns of Camacho & Belal Muhammad, but he was taken down on his DWCS fight against Chase Waldon. Neal showed incredible balance & strength against Muhammad. He was defending takedowns by posting with one hand and seems to be massively improved in that area He was also able to get a no hook, rear naked choke in his first UFC fight against Brian Camozzi. When he gets top position, he is very heavy and has strong ground & pound. He proved that by taking Niko price out with strikes from inside the guard. He was submitted one time in his 3rd MMA fight. He has two submissions himself. He has great cardio and can go for all three rounds easily.
Mike Perry
Age: 28
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 71”
Gym: Fusion Xcel MMA
From: Florida
UFC Record: 6-5
Fight Matrix: 25
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +215
Mike Perry will be looking for a different result this time out after suffering a decision loss to Vincente Luque in his last match. The ever-entertaining Perry has not been able to get over the hump & get that signature win that vaults him into the top fifteen. As a result, he has entered kind of a gate keeper role, testing the top prospects of the WW division. He had a spirited effort the last time he was in this situation against Vincente Luque, losing a decision many thought he won. Perry did get his face rearranged & one of the worst nose breaks in recent memory. That fight was just four months ago so I find it hard to believe Perry has been training that long or at least sparring. Hopefully his nose is 100% ready to go. Perry has proven time & time again he has dynamite in his hands & is always dangerous. Perry is a bruiser, wants to walk opponents down, and put his hands on them. He has one-shot knockout power & has some brutal UFC knockouts. He has a decent jab & nice one-two. His right hand has big knockout power, especially his overhand & hook. He will throw a straight-right hand to a left hook combination. He will mix in lead elbows & uppercuts in close range. He will attack the body with jabs & straight-rights. He will throw oblique kicks to the legs & lead, leg hook kicks. He can get very static & just stand in one spot without throwing much leaving him open to be hit. He is heavy on his lead leg & very hittable. He has been dropped in multiple UFC fights & his chin has taken a beating. He has always had a speed issue & struggled with fighters who use footwork & movement. He is willing to eat shots to give his own and won’t ever quit. Even if he’s dropped, he will get back up & continue to move forward. Perry has 11 KO/TKO’s in 13 wins. He has never been finished with strikes.
Perry is an underrated grappler. He is pretty explosive closing the distance into the clinch. He disguised his entries with punches & is strong in the clinch. He has good cage control & will attack with nasty knees & elbows. He has multiple finishes in the clinch in the UFC. When he is in close range like that, he doesn’t have to find opponents & it only takes one. He has decent body locks & double legs. He is very strong in the clinch and will get in on a single, elevate & slam opponents. He has good ground & pound, decent top control & floating ability. He will look to take the back. Against Neal, I’m not sure he will be in the clinch or on the mat, but I think it benefits him to have the fight there. I could see him landing a potential fight finishing shot off a break or in the clinch. He maybe will want to try to clinch Neal up, grind & make it dirty. He has good takedown defense, and I haven’t seen much off his back. He was submitted by Donald Cerrone and showed some green-ness on the ground. That was the first time he was finished in his career. Perry has never gotten a submission.
This is going to be a violent fight. Both guys have big power and Perry loves to brawl and make it an ugly fight. I think Neal is too good for him though and better everywhere. I think Neal could look for takedowns and GNP or a submission finish. That would be the smart route. I also think he is the one with better striking and more power and he could get a KO on the feet or win a unanimous decision. I see Neal getting a takedown in this match and Perry giving his back for a RNC.
Neal is going to be my preferred play here because I think he is the better overall fighter with more ways to win. I am not confident in him paying off his salary though, I just feel good about him getting the win here, so I like him in all formats. Perry is the guy that will have an easier time paying off his salary in a win. If Perry gets a win, I think it would likely be from a KO or a firefight and I would think he makes the optimal if that happens. I will likely be underweight to this fight as a whole but I will have at least 1 lineup with each guy. I would guess Neal makes 2-4 of my lineups and Perry 1-2.
Winner – Geoff Neal via 2nd round Submission
Petr Yan $9,400 vs Urijah Faber $6,800
Petr Yan
Age: 26
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: Russia
UFC Record: 5-0
Fight Matrix: 5
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -485
Petr Yan is a well-rounded fighter and has great hands on the feet. He has a nasty straight-right hand and will follow with a fade away, overhand left. He will throw hard one-twos down the pipe. He will switch stances and throw quick straight-lefts, and he has great uppercuts in close. He does a great job of keeping a high guard, using head movement while staying right in the pocket, and throwing big shots to the body & head. He does a great job of using feints and fakes in close to make fighters throw & counter. He has nasty kicks; great body kicks, nice head kicks, leg kicks, oblique kicks, spinning kicks, he has it all. He will use his kicks in combination with his punches and keeps a very high volume of shots out there. He likes to attack with a spinning backfist to close the distance and he will follow it up with a big kick to the head or the body. He will systematically break opponents down & his pressure is too much for many opponents. Due to his aggression, he does put himself in the fire & was dropped by John Dodson with a counter left hand. He recovered extremely quickly & was right back on the attack. He has 4 KO/TKO’s, has never been finished by shots, and has a great chin but is hittable.
Yan is extremely strong in the clinch. He has nasty, short elbows, knees, and will disengage with great spinning elbows. He has nasty slams and trip takedowns. He will elevate his opponents and land belly to belly suplexes, and nice hip tosses. He has good elbows in the clinch too and will damage opponents before he tries to take them down. He likes to back his opponents up against the cage and land big slam double legs. On top, he is very good. He likes to advance position to the mount and rain down punches until the ref stops the fight. He can be taken down by well-timed double legs, but he does a good job of scrambling, and either getting top position or the feet on the hips and standing up. He isn’t much of a submission threat with only 1 career submission. Yan has shown in his fights with Magomedov, that he is fearless and extremely hard to put away. He had tremendous cardio, going 5 rounds multiple times, so 3 round fights are not a problem.
Uriah Faber
Age: 40
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: California
UFC Record: 11-6
Fight Matrix: 10
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +385
Uriah Faber is an athletic, boxer wrestler with submission skills. He utilizes a low stance where he can explode into an overhand or takedown attempt. Faber will flick his lead hand out there with range finding jabs, but really, he is just looking to setup the right hand. He will feint & throw straight-rights or right hooks, but his trademark is the overhand right. He will fake the takedown & almost run into the overhand, it’s tricky & powerful. He will also do the same move with rear uppercuts. He will land inside, outside leg kicks, along with front kicks to the body. Faber’s striking game is really all setup by his wrestling feints. If opponents can figure out when he’s going to front & when he’s going to shoot, they can hit him with hard, flush counters as he tries to enter. That was an issue for him repeatedly in the Dominic Cruz fight. Faber holds his hands low, but he is fast & has good head movement. The issue with that is at older age, will it still be the same? One of his main issues has been leg kicks. He has been hurt with kicks his whole career & has never bothered to check them. Faber has always been extremely tough & opponents won’t get him out of there with leg kicks most likely. He has been KO/TKO’d just 3 times in over 40 fights. Faber has 10 KO/TKO’s earning his first since 2007 in his last match.
Uriah Faber is a former college wrestler & a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He has been competing in Jiu-Jitsu competitions since he retired to stay active & his best chance at a win is a submission to me. He used to be extremely fast, closing the distance with punches that he would use to create takedown entries. He has extremely fast, blast doubles & good body lock trips. He is relentless & a good scrambler. On top, he has good ground & pound elbows. When he can posture up, he will put big power into the elbows. Faber is always looking to take the back or jump on his guillotine & all his submissions have come from those two moves. Faber is very hard to take & hold down, and I can’t remember many people being able to do it. Faber has 17 submissions in his career. He has never been submitted.
I have been real high on Yan since he entered the UFC and I think this is a terrible matchup for Faber. Faber did get a KO in his last fight, but I think he is going to need a finish here again to get the win. I see Yan being better everywhere in this fight and I would be shocked if he lost a decision here.
This is another fight I won’t have much exposure to. I think Yan is in play in all formats and he could get a finish and score 120+ points here. He is definitely in play it’s just his salary that is hard to afford and you can’t do it when rostering all 3 champs. He is more in play for my Colby and Volk LUs, or for cash as the biggest favorite on the card. I could also see him scoring ~85-points in a decision here and that won’t win any GPPs. I don’t see Faber having any upside here unless he gets a KO, so I think he is best for a cash punt if you need salary. I think I will likely fade him here but if all favorites on the card end up winning, he could be live for the optimal lineup even with a loss.
Winner – Petr Yan via Unanimous Decision
Marlon Moraes $9,000 vs Jose Aldo $7,200
Marlon Moraes
Age: 31
Height: 5’5
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Nick Catone’s MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 3
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -225
Marlon Moraes is a Muay Thai champion & a powerful striker. He has brutal leg kicks & power in his hands. Moraes will throw the occasional jab, but he really likes to throw a left hook, straight-right hand combination. He has a nice right hook to the body, and good right uppercut, left hook combination. He does a good job of feinting his right hand, getting his opponents to back up & then smashing their lead leg with a low kick. He has very fast body kicks & will throw nice switch kicks to the body. He also has nasty head kicks & does a good job of throwing question mark kicks, hiding the kick behind the left hook. He will throw front kicks to the body & head. He does a good job of attacking the body to later open shots for the head. His last three victories he has dusted his last 3 opponents in the first round. In his last match, he dominated in round one also, but gassed & in my opinion quit before being TKO’d. He has 10 KO/TKO’s and been finished three times by strikes in his career.
Moraes very rarely will wrestle, but he did attempt a few takedowns in the first fight with Assuncao. He has shown a fairly good double leg & nice timing on it. He got Assuncao down one time but didn’t have any control time. He has great takedown defense, and if opponents do get him down, he is super hard to hold down. Dodson had some success catching Moraes’ kicks & dumping him but couldn’t control him on the mat. Moraes is a black belt as well, and well versed on the mat. Moraes likes to drop opponents, take their backs and submit them. He has 4 rear naked chokes & five submissions overall. He also will attack with leg locks. He did jump on a guillotine against Dodson, and got the tap, but it was a second after the bell rang.
Jose Aldo
Age: 33
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135(Debut)
Reach: 70”
Gym: Nova Uniao
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 10-4
Fight Matrix: 3 (FW)
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +185
Jose Aldo is one of the best strikers of all time. Aldo is extremely economical & accurate with his shots and fights like a sniper. He has a tremendous jab and lateral footwork, making it extremely hard for opponents to get inside. He does a great job of faking the jab to create an opening for his straight-right hand & does an excellent job of jabbing, stepping back and allowing his opponent to go first & countering with hard shots. He has nasty, counter right straights & hooks. He likes to throw left hooks & straight-left hands into hard leg & body kicks. He does a great job of faking & feinting the same combinations he lands, really making his opponent always have to be reacting to him instead of creating their own offense. Aldo has some of the best leg kicks in MMA history, but really hasn’t thrown them much in recent fights. This is a strike he needs to get back to in this matchup and try to batter the lead leg of Volkanovski. Aldo has amazing head movement & will slip and return in the pocket with hard hooks to the body. He has nasty step-in knees to the body when opponents try to get inside & will also throw flying knees which are devastating. He has finished multiple fights via flying knee KO. He will throw nice, spinning body kicks, and has good head kicks. Aldo is still extremely explosive & powerful and definitely the fighter with more one-shot knockout power. He has always been one of the fastest fighters in the UFC, and it will be interesting to see who is faster in this matchup on the night. Aldo has 17 KO/TKO’s in his illustrious career, but his ability to take a shot has weakened, and he has been finished by strikes 3 times, all in his last 6 fights. With the weight cut added who knows how he will look or take punches.
Aldo, in my opinion, is the best anti grappler in MMA history. The ability he has to deny takedown attempts & make fighters pay for shooting is absolutely uncanny. He throws the front knees up the middle & flying knees to stop takedown attempts, along with very accurate uppercuts. Aldo is nasty in the clinch. He has great knees to the body & was able to get a highlight reel, flying knee KO of Chad Mendes directly off the break. He does a great job of limp legging out of single legs & sprawling on doubles. He has a great whizzer to deny single legs and will land hard hammerfists to the head. He rarely shoots takedowns, but he does have good reactive double legs, and decent clinch takedowns. He is a black belt but is not a dangerous submission threat in top position, he normally only wrestles when he is tired. He has had cardio issues in fights, specifically five round fights, but he did gas quickly against Holloway. Holloway pushes a pace that few in MMA history have been able to do, so there is no shame in that. Hopefully he can look sharp at 135 lbs.
Aldo is moving down to 135 lbs here for the first time and I am worried about the weight cut for him. It almost seems like a TJ Dillashaw instance where his chin may not hold up with his body being that drawn out. I would bet Aldo at these odds if this fight was at 145 lbs but at this division I have to lean with Moraes. I think Aldo is live here if his chin holds up and I think it would be a close decision that takes place on the feet. I think he gets knocked out though at this new weight class.
Since I see Aldo getting KO’d here, I do want exposure to him. If I am wrong about Aldo’s chin and it holds up, then I don’t see Moraes paying off this price tag even in a decision win. I also think the fight could be close if Aldo’s chin holds up and if that was the case then Aldo would be my preferred play. I will get some Aldo exposure with the hopes of that being the case here, but I think he is a GPP only play. Moraes is in play in all formats and he could get 100+ with a 1st round KO at lower ownership than the champions.
Winner – Marlon Moraes via 1st round (T)KO
Amanda Nunes $9,200 vs Germaine de Randamie $7,000
Amanda Nunes
Age: 31
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 11-1
Fight Matrix: 1
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W9
Betting Odds: -310
The female GOAT Amanda Nunes once again puts that title & her UFC title on the line in Las Vegas. Nunes will be re-watching Germaine de Randamie for her 135 lb title. Nunes has been taking out legends left & right. She has actually defeated every single former 135 & 145 champion in UFC history. Nunes is excellent at using feints & footwork to cut off the cage & back opponents up. She has a strong jab, and she throws it very stiff busting the faces of her opponents and forcing ugly shots from too far outside. She has a clubbing right hand, and huge power in this shot. She will throw the right hand straight down the pipe, and over the top very effectively. She landed a heavy head kick that knocked Holly Holm out in her last match. She doesn’t look for much else besides a one-two and is very meat and potatoes with her striking. She has nasty, low leg kicks, and a few kicks can damage the leg of her opponent. She has 12 KO/TKO’s in her career and has been finished twice by TKO. Her chin to me is very good & both of those TKO’s happened on the ground.
Nunes is a very strong grappler as well, and it’s what she should try to use for this fight, in my opinion. She has a good Muay Thai plum clinch and can land hard knees to the body & head. She has nice inside trips. Nunes is a judo brown belt and very physically strong in the clinch. She doesn’t go for many takedowns I feel because she is worried about her gas tank. When she does get on top, she is nasty. She is a black belt & great at passing. She will transition right into dominant position & has great ground & pound. In the first match with GDR, she took her down & finished her with G&P. She hasn’t showed off much of her grappling since the first Valentina Shevchenko fight. She has good back takes & rear naked chokes. She isn’t a big submission threat with just three & she has been submitted one time. The one chink in her armor has been her cardio, but even that looks improved now. She has all the confidence in the world & is ready to put on a show here.
Germaine de Randamie
Age: 35
Height: 5’10
Weight: 135
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: SB Gym
From: Netherlands
UFC Record: 6-1
Fight Matrix: 2
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: +255
Germaine de Randamie is looking to become the second female two division champion in UFC history. The former FW champion has won five consecutive fights since losing to Amanda Nunes going 4-0 at 135. She is coming off of a sixteen second knockout of top prospect Aspen Ladd and can shut opponent’s lights out with one shot. De Randamie is a tall and long fighter, who does a great job of using her reach on the feet. She has very nice leg kicks both inside and outside. She will really chop down with power on her leg kicks after a jab or left hook. De Randamie has a nice jab, and a very nice one-two. She has good in and out movement and is always trying to pull fighters into her power. She has a really nice uppercut and overhand right and is one of the more powerful strikers in the division. She has nasty front kicks to the body, and she will fire them to the head also. She does a good job of sneaking tricky, high kicks into combinations, and when they land they have big power. She is very good defensively, she will keep a high guard, and is always gauging distance. She has big power and has finished 4 of her 8 wins via KO/TKO. She has never been finished with strikes on the feet, her one TKO loss to Nunes was on the ground.
De Randamie is nasty in the clinch, and one of the better clinch fighters in the division. She has nasty knees to the body, and her head position is always right so she is able to muscle girls around in the clinch. She has a nasty Muay Thai plum and will land hard knees to the body and head, as well as short elbows. She will use this position to defend takedowns, do damage, and it makes fighters nervous to close the distance on her. She has never attempted a takedown in the UFC, and I doubt she goes for one here. De Randamie has defended 86% of the takedowns attempted against her in the UFC and hasn’t been taken down since her fight with Amanda Nunes in 2013. She needs to be able to keep this fight standing, and she will have a great chance to win. When she has been taken down, she hasn’t shown much at all. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen her on the mat, but vs Nunes she looked lost & was finished quickly. She will most likely be in trouble if she is taken down in this matchup.
These two have fought before and Nunes took GDR to the ground and finished her with strikes in the first round. Now they will rematch for the belt. I think Nunes is the best WMMA fighter of all time and I don’t see anybody taking her belt from her for a long time. GDR does have a shot to maybe get a KO in this fight, but her only shot is to keep the fight standing. Nunes can hang on the feet, get a KO herself, or just take the easy route and get takedowns where she will have a huge edge on the mat. I think this goes similar to the last time they fought, and we will hear “And still” before Nunes gets her hand raised.
Nunes is my favorite play on the slate and a possible all-in spot for me this week. Her only fight she didn’t score over 100 DK points since becoming the champ is the Shevchenko fight and even in 3 round fights Shevchenko was her only win under 100-points. I see her getting takedowns in the first round and locking up a GNP finish or a submission. I think that is good for 100+ but the worry is that there are so many other good scorers on the card that even that might not be enough. I think you can make a case to fade Nunes in this fight to be contrarian with the title fade, but I am not sure I will even do that. I may have 100% Nunes this week and GDR is a full fade for me.
Winner – Amanda Nunes via 1st round Submission
Max Holloway $8,700 vs Volkanovski $7,500
Max Holloway
Age: 28
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 69”
Gym: Hawaii Elite MMA
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 17-4
Fight Matrix: 1
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -175
Max Holloway is one of the best strikers in the UFC. He has arguably the best cardio & volume in the UFC. Holloway has a nasty jab, and a very good one-two. He has a very nice left hook & likes to throw a lot of jab, left hook combinations. He will throw jab, left hook, straight-right hand combinations. He will dig to the body with big hooks. He will pull counter excellently with his one-two. He will switch stances mid combination & never allows opponents to rest. He will land a combination, then use his straight-right to move to southpaw and continue the combo with a right jab to a straight-left combo. He has nasty left kicks & jump knees to the body along with hooks & has body shot finishes. He is excellent fighting in close range. He will touch opponents, pull back & counter with return combinations. He has a nasty spinning back to the body. His conditioning and ability to just continue to walk opponents down and drown them with pressure is what makes him an all-time great. He isn’t a one punch knockout fighter, but his volume is something not many fighters can handle. He has 10 KO/TKO’s including 4 out of his last 5 wins. He has a hell of chin, but he is hittable. He puts himself in danger to take damage. He has never been finished by strikes.
Holloway has excellent footwork & while he isn’t a mover, he is very hard to shoot against. He has great hips & very good defense against the cage. When he gets taken down, he tends to pop right back up. He has the cardio to defend attempts or find his way back to his feet and be unfazed. He will counter takedowns with guillotines. He doesn’t go for offensive takedowns, and only is in top position if he sweeps or drops opponents. He has shown a strong top game against an already hurt Aldo. He was able to keep top position, earn dominant position & pound out Aldo. Holloway has two submissions & was submitted once by Poirier.
Alexander Volkanovski
Age: 31
Height: 5’6
Weight: 145
Reach: 71”
Gym: City Kickboxing
From: Australia
UFC Record: 7-0
Fight Matrix: 2
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W17
Betting Odds: +155
Alexander Volkanovski is a well-rounded fighter with a heavy grappling base. Volkanovski is a solid striker. He is very fast, closes the gap quickly & is constantly feinting & faking. He shut down Aldo’s game with the feints & always winning the lead foot positioning battle. He has a nice jab, and good leg kicks. He will jab to the body. He likes to throw a counter overhand right as fighters close the distance. He will also use the overhand right as a lead to close the distance and get in the clinch. He was able to rock Elkins multiple times with his overhand right and drop him. He does a good job of sticking in the pocket, sliding in & out and returning with left hooks and overhand rights. He likes to throw body & head kicks with his lead leg. He keeps heavy pressure on opponents, always owning the cage & pushing opponents backwards. He does a good job of faking level changes to try to create openings for his strikes. He will close the distance with a straight-left, right hook, right uppercut combination. He doesn’t throw a lot in combination most of the fight and will mostly use one or two shots attacks. He likes to slide away from shots and return. He is powerful, but he doesn’t possess one shot power. He has 11 KO/TKO’s in 19 wins. He was TKO’d in his lone loss.
Volkanovski is a strong wrestler, and that’s what he has used to earn the majority of his victories. He does a great job of using his striking to get inside, and he will duck under into the body lock clinch. He is very strong and can just bull fighters over when he gets his hands clasped around the back. He will shoot reactive double legs and does a good job of using it to push opponents against the cage if he can’t get the takedowns. He will dig double underhooks and does a great job of controlling opponents against the cage and banking control time. He is very strong in those positions and can lift and slam opponents when he gets his hands connected with his opponents against the cage. He is strong in the clinch with short punches & control. He will use a spinning elbow to disengage, and it’s an effective technique. On top, he is very good. He does a great job of moving to half guard where he will posture up and land heavy G&P. He has great control and will put a lot of damage on opponents from top position. He is going to want to mix it up in this fight & keep the pace high. Volkanovski has the cardio to potentially match Holloway & doesn’t get tired.
This is going to be a fun one. Holloway is one of the best strikers in the division and he never slows down in fights and he is the one who picks up the pace when his opponent starts to tire. I do think he will be winning the boxing exchanges in this fight as well but Volkanovski is a live dog here. Volkanovski puts up a high pace himself, has more knockout power, and will have the wrestling edge here. I think Volkanovski can win this fight by mixing in his wrestling a lot, he just needs to have 5-round cardio with that type of style. I am going to lean with Holloway as my pick here, but I think this might be a dog or pass fight and the most likely belt to exchange hands this weekend.
This is an easy all-in fight and probably my preferred stack in cash fight. I see this being the fight that takes place at the higher pace and I would be shocked if the winner of this fight wasn’t on the optimal. My preferred play is going to be Max, but I will be getting more exposure to Volkanovski than any other underdog I am thinking. I will probably be around 60/40 in favor of Max here and I think you can even stack this fight in a GPP or two and hope Max wins a high paced decision. I can’t wait for this one though and I won’t build a lineup without it.
Winner – Max Holloway via Unanimous Decision
Kamaru Usman $8,900 vs Colby Covington $7,300
Kamaru Usman
Age: 32
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 76”
Gym: Blackzillians
From: Nigeria
UFC Record: 10-0
Fight Matrix: 1
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W14
Betting Odds: -185
UFC Champion Kamaru Usman is 10-0 in the UFC and steadily improving. He is still a bit stiff overall as a striker, but very good with the basics. Usman does a good job of landing a long jab and is good from both stances. He tends to spend more time in southpaw, and he has a good jab, straight-left hand. He likes to throw a straight-left, right hook combination. He is very good at feinting single legs and coming back up with uppercuts and overhands. He is very powerful and can knock fighters out with one shot, such as Sergio Moraes. He likes to use a right uppercut, left high kick combination, and he does a good job of keeping constant pressure and pushing his opponents backwards. He has good leg and body kicks. He can sometimes walk forward and look for the knockout making himself hittable, and he needs to not do that against Colby. When he is loose and flowing, he is much more dangerous with his striking game. Usman excels when he can fight with opponent’s backs against the fence. We saw that in his domination of Tyron Woodley for the belt. He has a good chin, and when he gets hit will taunt his opponents. Usman does have big power but not a lot of standing knockouts.
Kamaru Usman is a college wrestling division 2 national champion. He is very fast and athletic closing the distance with double legs. He is very strong and when he gets ahold of fighters, he usually gets them down. Usman likes to shoot single legs from southpaw, and that’s why his feints are so effective. He does a great job of getting a high crotch and taking opponents down and then he also can change it into a double leg. He is excellent at using his striking to continuously push opponents back. Against the cage he is hard to read. He is great at mixing up his striking & grappling and can control opponents against the cage for long periods of time. Usman has great mat returns and will bring his opponents back down with nasty slams. He has nice, trip takedowns as well and just is just a very dynamic, diverse wrestler overall. He does a good job landing hard ground & pound from mount, staying heavy and controlling position. He overwhelmed his last opponent, Tyron Woodley, a D-1 All American with his pressure style. He will work to get into half guard where he is heavy and will attack with kimuras and try to move to mount. He has a strong mount and hard G&P. He has good arm triangles and that’s his only submission victory.
Colby Covington
Age: 31
Height: 5’9
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Oregon
UFC Record: 10-1
Fight Matrix: 2
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: +160
Colby Covington is a tenacious wrestler with in my opinion an underrated, high volume, striking game. He has an educated lead hand and throws some nice jabs and straights. He has a good jab, overhand left combination and has more power than people give him credit for with his overhand left. He dropped Dong Hyun Kim with his overhand left. When he gets in range, he will throw long hook combinations. He was able to throw an insane amount of volume against Robbie Lawler, always keeping the jab in Lawler’s face. He wouldn’t allow him to breathe & kept him guessing all night. Covington has nice leg kicks inside and outside. He sometimes can be not incredibly fluid with his kicks. Covington throws a lot of shots and keeps a very high pace to try to wear fighters out. He does have some defensive problems on the feet. He can keep his lead hand low and get clipped with straight punches. He also can lunge forward at times and get off balance. He can duck his head down at times as well. His chin has been very good though so far in his career. Covington has never been finished by strikes. He doesn’t hit very hard himself.
Covington is former college wrestler & brings those skills to the octagon. He has great entries into his double legs. He does an awesome job of using punches to create entries for the level change and has a strong double leg. He does a great job of staying connected and hanging on opponents. He loves to get the body lock and try to work for the back on the feet while hanging on fighters and making them work. He’s very strong in clinch positions. He isn’t overwhelming with his ground and pound but does enough and can wrestle all day. He has a RNC, but really gets his finishes after he breaks his opponents. He has amazing cardio when he is wrestling and can go all day long. Covington is the better Jiu-Jitsu player of the two, but both guys are more about controlling & wearing on opponents rather than finishing with a submission. Covington is going to need to back up his mouth now & take it to Usman.
The 3rd title fight of the night will be between the two best wrestlers in the division and two guys who don’t like each other. Colby has always had great, relentless wrestling in the UFC, but now he is adding an insane pace with his strikes as well and he set the record for most strikes thrown in his last fight with 515, and he threw 296 in the fight before that. That is how he is going to have to win this fight too most likely. I think Usman is the stronger wrestler and has more power on the feet, so he should be looking to get the KO or land takedowns. If Colby puts that crazy pace on Usman, then he could be put on his back where he wasn’t worried about that in his last two fights. I think Colby is going to need to land more strikes to win a decision victory here or else it will be Usman who gets his hand raised. I see Usman being the one pushing forward in this fight and I do see him putting Colby on his back multiple times. I think this will go to the judges, but I will take Usman to defend his belt.
This is another all-in fight, but I think you could make a case for fading it and hoping Usman wins a close decision. If that happens and Usman scores less than 100, I could see this being off the optimal. I don’t see that being the case in the Holloway fight. I do want to load up on Usman here though and I doubt I make a single lineup without this fight. I am probably going to be about 75/25 in favor of Usman here, but I love stacking this fight in cash as well and the dub stack is very in play IMO. I think you can stack this fight in tournaments as well, but I don’t see me doing that because I think this would be the more popular fight that people go to for that route. If any of the title contenders win this weekend they will be a lock for the optimal lineup. That may not be the case with the favorites. Maybe make some ownership pivots this weekend because these 3 fights will be super chalk and most of my lineups will be too. I might make an extra 5 lineups for a total of 20 this week and be more ownership focused in those lineups to try and have a shot at $50k solo.
Winner – Kamaru Usman via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: https://MMAoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/
- Bets are on a 1-10u scale with 1u = $100.
- I am 106-78 for +262.58u (+$26,258) since May 19, 2018 for all premium bets.
