BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN+ 22 Location – Sao Paulo, Brazil
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Brazil. DraftKings has some OK contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize. Typically, I stay around 20 lineups each week and go after that big GPP and then max the $4 20-entry max GPP as well. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Tracy Cortez $8,800 vs Vanessa Melo $7,400
Tracy Cortez
Age: 25
Height: 5’5
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Fight Ready
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 38
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -200
Tracy Cortez is making her UFC debut after a successful outing on the DWCS. She defeated a legit fighter in Mariya Agapova, who is a beast herself. Cortez hasn’t lost since her MMA debut. Cortez is young in her career at just 6-1. This is the first time she’s fought overseas, and it will be in hostile territory in Brazil. Cortez is the more athletic fighter & more technical with her striking, wrestling & clinch control. Cortez is going to have a big speed advantage on the feet. She uses a lot of lateral movement & then blitzes in with punch combos or takedown attempts. She has a nice jab to the head & body. She has a fast one-two & good left hook, straight-right hand. She is good at landing one-twos then closing the distance with hook combos while moving her head well. She will duck under & come over the top with shots, which also disguises her level changes on the double which are very good. She is even decent striking while moving backwards, sticking opponents with jabs and straight punches. She has good timing when she blitzes in with her left hook & front knee to the body. She doesn’t look very powerful though, and fighters who get inside on her can tag her with combos. When she throws kicks, she leaves her chin high & right on center line. She also doesn’t always bring her hands back to her chin after she throws punches & gets countered clean. I have seen her hit with some solid shots, and she doesn’t seem to like being hit much. She has no standing KO’s & has never been finished by strikes.
Tracy Cortez is a strong wrestler. Her grappling is what she uses to win fights. She has very good double leg & body lock takedowns. She is very good at getting deep on double legs and turning it into trips when opponents try to defend. She is very active with her wrestling & control against the cage. She likes to push opponents to the cage, control the far wrist & land knees to the body & elbows/short punches to the head. I think in this fight she needs to have periods of clinch control against the cage. She should be the stronger, more active fighter there & be able to control position. Cortez on top is good, but not great. She has solid top control & when she can pass guard she is very aggressive. She likes to get the crucifix in side control & has a good mount. She likes to throw heavy ground & pound from those positions but can get too high in the guard & reversed. She really like to take the back & is very aggressive in her pursuit for it. In her last match, she had back control for large parts of every round. She can get swept when she goes for the back. She is too aggressive & sloppy going for it at times. When she can get her hooks in though, she will get the body triangle & has good control. She will flatten opponents out & land nice ground & pound. She will hang out in opponent’s guard & look for ground & pound, but her submission defense is questionable. She will get caught in deep armbars. She was caught in an armbar for the majority of first round in her fight with Blanchard. Her takedown defense is good & she has great get-ups off her back. She is very good at using feet on the hips to stand back up. She has great balance when defending takedowns. She likes to try to take the back with switches when opponents go for singles along with attacking kimuras. She was taken down in the third round of her match with Blanchard and was controlled on the ground. She was mounted, and almost got caught in an arm triangle. She showed heart surviving to win the decision because she easily could have looked for a way out. She was eventually able to scramble back her feet with 1-minute left in the round & went for it on the feet. She is a dog & has that Mexican heart. Cortez seems to get very tired in round 3 & really slows down. Cortez’s one loss was in her debut. She got caught in a guillotine in the clinch & submitted.
Vanessa Melo
Age: 31
Height: 5’5
Weight: 135
Reach: 65”
Gym: Babuino Gold Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 26
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +170
Vanessa Melo is making a quick turnaround following her loss to Irene Aldana. She was thoroughly beat down in that fight & took a lot of damage. I really am not extremely impressed with Melo. Her striking is very basic. Her footwork is just not very good. She is flat footed & slowly tries to inch her way into boxing range. She tends to do a lot of waiting right in front of opponents, so she can counter. Melo will throw some inside leg kicks but is almost exclusively a puncher. Melo has a decent jab & lead left hook. She will slip a shot & come over the top with a right overhand or hook. She will slip & return with the jab or left hook. She throws a lot of arm punches lacking power. When fighters pressure Melo, she tends to back up in straight lines. She gives up the center pretty easily. She doesn’t move her head & gets hit entering range. She also just isn’t the fastest or best athlete. She does come in good shape. She tends to start slow but walk opponents down in the latter half of the fight. Melo does not have big power with 0 KO/TKO’s & has been TKO’d one time.
Vanessa Melo isn’t a super active grappler & won’t look for takedowns or the clinch much. I have seen her shoot takedowns when she can back opponents to the cage & get double legs. Her takedown defense doesn’t look great. Off her back, she does look hard to hold down. I really haven’t seen much of her off her back. I do think that Cortez path to victory is takedowns, so Melo had to be ready for that. Melo does have two career submissions. She has never been submitted.
I like Cortez here and I think it is the grappling that is going to be what gets her the win. I like her on the feet as well here, but it could be close, and I think she can really make rounds clear if she looks for takedowns. Melo is taking this fight on short notice as well, so I think this is a tough spot for her and I will take Cortez via 30-27 Unanimous Decision.
On DraftKings, it’s Cortez or pass for me. She should be the fighter looking to grapple here and I could see her racking up multiple takedowns and passes and maybe even get a submission. I don’t love the chances at a finish with this fight having a -355 Fight Goes To Decision line but I think she still has a decent ceiling in a decision win. I think she is in play in all formats, but I don’t see me getting to any Melo with the other dogs I like more on this card.
Winner – Tracy Cortez via Unanimous Decision
Veronica Macedo $8,500 vs Ariane Lipski $7,700
Veronica Macedo
Age: 24
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 64”
Gym: MMA Factory
From: Venezuela
UFC Record: 1-3
Fight Matrix: 71
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 1-3-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -120
Veronica Macedo is stepping in on short notice to take on Ariane Lipski. Macedo was in training camp for another fight so I expect her to be ready to go. Macedo was 0-3 with her back against the wall in her last fight & pulled off a submission victory. She has the skill set to go on a run in the division, she just needs to put it all together. I actually feel Macedo still has potential. She has great calmness & composure in the octagon along with a killer instinct. She starts fast in fights & usually wins the early striking exchanges. Macedo is a southpaw karate & taekwondo practitioner. She has a wide stance, is very light on her feet, & quick in & out. She doesn’t throw jabs or feints much & really relies on her speed. She will circle & close the distance with fast, straight punch combinations. She has a nice straight-left, right hook combination. She will trade in the pocket & has power. She has very good kicks. She will throw kicks with both legs. She has solid leg kicks, and front kicks to the body & head with both legs. She will throw front leg sidekicks. Her round kicks with her rear leg are her most dangerous strike. She has nasty round kicks to the body & head and can throw more than one in a row. She has excellent spinning kicks to the body & head. When she’s landing & angling, staying on the outside she is at her best. Her problem is she gets too overaggressive. She will smother her punches & let her opponents grab ahold of her. Macedo is hittable herself, but she has a fighter’s spirit & will return with shots. She has been finished once by TKO on the ground vs Ashlee Evans-Smith & has one KO Win. Her kicks are dangerous & she has a head kick knockout in an amateur fight.
Veronica Macedo isn’t a very active wrestler. She is 100% on her takedown attempts in the UFC but has two in four fights. Macedo has lost her three UFC fights by being out grappled. When she fought Ashlee Evans Smith and Andrea Lee, she couldn’t stop the takedowns, and was controlled on her back. Gillian Robertson was able to get the takedown & submission. Macedo allows fighters to clinch up with her when she darts in & Andre Lee & Ashlee Evans-Smith have just been the more powerful fighters. She showed some nice knees to the body & elbows against Smith & was able to disengage a few times against Lee, but overall, she lost those spots. She couldn’t stop the takedowns, and besides sometimes creating quick scrambles to stand back up, she was dominated. Macedo will look for leg locks & sweeps. She does have a heel hook win in her career. She isn’t bad attacking from her guard either, but she gives her back trying to stand up & isn’t defensively sound. Macedo did get a very tricky armbar in her last match off her back showing her black belt skills. Even in top position she will get too overaggressive & give up top position. She was able to win some grappling exchanges against Andrea Lee & has shown moments of good things on the ground. When she fought Gillian Robertson, she was able to sweep Robertson & get back to her feet in round one. She was also able to reverse several takedowns and take top position. Macedo will sometimes attack guillotines instead of trying to defend takedowns & she has to stop doing that. In this fight, she is clearly the better striker & if she can mix in takedowns that will be a smart game plan.
Ariane Lipski
Age: 25
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-2
Fight Matrix: 55
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +100
Ariane Lipski is in a similar situation to Macedo in her last fight. She is 0-2 and must be desperate for a victory. Lipski was a hyped prospect entering the UFC, but it has not planned out yet. At only 25 she has plenty of time to turn it around. Ariane Lipski is a strong Muay Thai striker. She has a great jab, and nasty right hand. She throws nice one-twos, has nice right hooks & overhand rights. When fighters close the distance, she will throw nasty hook combinations, and knees to the head. She has no problem brawling & letting her hands go in the pocket. She will dig to the body with hooks, and she likes to close the distance with a straight-right hand to the body followed by hook combinations to the head. She has a nasty counter left hook. She likes to throw a jab, leg kick or a straight-right, leg kick combination. She has fast hands. Lipski has nice front & round kicks to the body. She has strong leg kicks. She is in constant forward pressure and does a great job of keeping a heavy volume of shots out there. She doesn’t have the fastest feet & that was really exposed in her last two fights. Lipski really struggles with opponents who can move & will look as if she is lost at times. Lipski has 6 KO/TKO’s & a strong chin and good defense only being finished once in her career.
Lipski is well-rounded, and an aggressive grappler. In the clinch, she will unload with knees to the head & body and dirty boxing combinations. She can overwhelm opponents with her aggressiveness, and that’s an impressive trait. She is opportunistic with her Jiu-Jitsu, and ground & pound. She isn’t a super active wrestler, but she will shoot the occasional takedown, and in top position she transitions quickly. She will move to mount and throws hard punches & elbows. She was able to get an armbar after getting bucked out of mount and will look for leg locks from her back. Her takedown defense has been very questionable in the UFC. Against JoJo Calderwood she wasn’t able to do much off her back. She was controlled & lost rounds on bottom. Calderwood was able to get fairly close on a couple submission attempts. Molly McCann was able to get big slam takedowns to seal rounds vs Lipski. She has been fighting 5 round fights & has great cardio. She tends to have her best rounds in round 3. She has two submissions, but two in her last three wins.
Macedo is taking this fight on short notice and coming off an impressive submission victory. I think she has the edge on the ground in this fight as well and could pick up another submission if she can get it there. I see Lipski being the better striker in this match though and I think she will be throwing at a higher volume as well. I think Lipski’s losing her last two fights as a betting favorite is playing into the line here and I think Lipski should be the favorite again in this spot and I will pick her to get her first UFC victory.
I think both sides of this fight are in play. I think the ceiling for Macedo is there with a 1st round submission and I think if Lipski wins she will have the volume to get 10x+. I don’t see me being too heavy on this fight, but my preferred play is going to be Lipski because I am picking her to win and I think she will be low owned. I like the underdogs priced around Lipski though, so I am not against just fading this fight, but I think they are both in play for more than 10x in a win.
Winner – Ariane Lipski via Unanimous Decision
Douglas Silva De Andrade $9,100 vs Renan Barao $7,100
Douglas Andrade
Age: 34
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 68.5”
Gym: NFT Castanhal
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 3-3
Fight Matrix: 54
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -250
Douglas Silva De Andrade is getting a huge opportunity in Brazil. He has the chance to take out a legend & build his name. Andrade likes to walk down opponents and throw hard oblique kicks and outside leg kicks. He has good front kicks & round kicks to the body. He will throw nice spinning back kicks to the body, and occasionally to the head. He likes to wait for his opponents to throw and counter with straight punch combinations. He has very fast hand speed and can make opponents gun shy to throw. He has a good straight-right hand lead and will change it to an overhand right. He has a nasty lead uppercut. He has a nasty left hook, and when he gets fighters hurt, he will swarm with big shots. He does a good job of controlling distance and sliding in & out. He has good fakes, feints, and is very explosive when he decides to close the distance. He is very dangerous in close range with elbows, he has devastating spinning elbows & backfists. He tends to close the distance with just one strike combinations, and they can be wide. Fighters who throw nice, tight straight punches like Petr Yan or Rob Font, will be able to counter. He doesn’t do as well moving backwards and will throw much less. He has huge power and when he lands opponents feel it. He has 19 KO/TKO’s and has never been finished by strikes.
Douglas Andrade is not a grappler and will rarely attempt takedowns. He was able to time a suplex from the clinch late in round 1 vs Chito Vera to seal the round. He also did the same landing a single against Rob Font, and it seems to be a point scoring strategy of his. He is strong in the clinch, he will throw nasty knees to the head, and will attack off the break with dangerous spins. When he is forced to strike moving backwards, he will move to the cage, and get wild with his striking, making him easier to takedown. Petr Yan was able to catch his kick & get a takedown in round one. Andrade was able to attack with a leg lock, create a scramble & stood up. In round two, Petr Yan dominated & battered Andrade on the mat. He was controlling & landing hard shots from the front head lock position, eventually took mounted crucifix & landed some huge elbows. After that round Andrade’s corner threw in the towel. When Douglas is in control and moving forward, he is very hard to takedown. He has a heavy sprawl and does a great job of seeing the attempt coming & moving out of the way or shucking it off with underhooks. He is not a submission threat with just one career submission and has only been submitted one time after getting pinged up by Rob Font.
Renan Barao
Age: 32
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 8-7
Fight Matrix: 99
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L4
Betting Odds: +210
Renan Barao is much less explosive & not the dangerous fighter he once was. He really doesn’t even show glimpses of what he once was on the feet. He likes to circle & walk opponents into his strikes. He will throw jabs & check left hooks. He will throw front kicks to the body, and actually has nice, low leg kicks. His round kicks to the body are still dangerous. Barao doesn’t deal well with pressure & his speed that he once had is basically gone. He will throw lazy jabs & fighters are able to counter with overhands and hurt him. He will throw straight punches down the middle and will throw a left hook, straight-right hand. He doesn’t let go nearly as much and is a bit gun shy. He rarely throws body or head kicks anymore & isn’t much of a knockout threat anymore. Barao hasn’t had a KO/TKO since 2014. He has 8 KO/TKO’s in his career. His durability has diminished significantly. He has been finished three times by KO/TKO.
Renan Barao has become more of a grappler in recent fights. He likes to get double underhooks in the clinch. He has good head positioning and can control opponents against the cage. He will look for body lock trips and is a black belt in BJJ. He has good top control & can hold opponents down, but he isn’t very dangerous. He was able to get a takedown in his match with Andre Ewell & win round 1. He was able to get half guard & land some decent elbows while attacking with arm triangles. He had a very easy path to victory in that fight, by continuing to get takedowns & just didn’t do it. He seems to fight on auto pilot much more now and try to survive rather than win the fight. He has 15 career submissions, but none since 2014. Barao’s cardio is very suspect nowadays. He usually gets beat up badly in round 3.
Barao is 0-4 in his L4 fights and 1-6 in his L7. He looks like a shell of his former self and there is no way I could trust him in a higher level fight these days. Andrade has big power and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end Barao’s career with a KO here. Andrade can be inactive at times though and volume wise this fight could be close if he can’t get a finish. I think Barao could make it closer if he looks to grapple as well. I just can’t pick him even at these +200-betting line, so I will go with Andrade with a late TKO.
At the start of the week I was thinking Andrade would be a core play for me here. He has a lot of power and Barao has looked awful. He could totally get a 1st round KO and be a lock for the optimal LU. I still have interest in him, but I think the rest of the world does as well and he could end up being chalk here. I also think everyone will fade Barao here, so I don’t hate him at his cheap price tag because it wouldn’t shock me to see him get a win here. I have changed my tune on this fight and I likely won’t target it much, but I do want 1-2 of each in my lineups. I would say Andrade is the only cash game option of the two.
Winner – Douglas Silva De Andrade via 2nd round (T)KO
Warlley Alves $8,300 vs Randy Brown $7,900
Warlley Alves
Age: 28
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: XGym
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 7-3
Fight Matrix: 54
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -125
Warlley Alves bounced back from a loss with an excellent performance. He knocked Sergio Moraes out in round 3 & looked much more composed. Alves is a good striker with a deadly guillotine. Warlley has a nasty jab. He was landing it a ton vs Moraes. He has heavy leg kicks & nice body kicks with both legs. He has solid front kicks to the body. The low kicks are what won him the fight with Moraes. Alves will throw wide overhands. He will throw an uppercut, right hook, left hook combination. He does have power in his left hook & uppercut. He will throw a left hook, overhand right combination. He has a big overhand right. He will throw high kicks & nice spinning back kicks to the body. He uses a lot of big, explosive attacks, and doesn’t pace himself well in certain fights. He is extremely aggressive early and will walk opponents down and go for the finish. His defense isn’t great & he’s low volume after the first round. He was knocked out for the first time in his career vs James Krause but has a very good chin. He doesn’t have huge power but has two KO/TKO’s.
Warlley Alves likes to slow the fight down & hold opponents against the cage while landing short shots to the body & head. He does throw heavy knees to the body & legs. He has a good single leg. He will use the single leg to try to take the back. In top position, he isn’t extremely aggressive. His takedown defense is elite & fighters always have to look out for the guillotine. He has five guillotines including three in the UFC. He got a guillotine on Colby Covington. Alves has 6 submissions and has never been submitted.
Randy Brown
Age: 29
Height: 6’3
Weight: 170
Reach: 78”
Gym: Budokan Martial Arts
From: Jamaica
UFC Record: 5-3
Fight Matrix: 78
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +105
Randy Brown had the biggest win of his career last time out. He dominated & stopped the tough Bryan Barberena as a big underdog. Brown is a great athlete with a long frame, and the intangibles to be an elite fighter. He just needs to put it all together in the cage on fight night. Brown is a well-rounded fighter with good striking. He has a very nice jab & good one-two. He will throw nice front kicks to the body & fights long. He will throw a nice one-two, left hook & double jab, left hook. He has good hand speed & when he gets his range & opponents on the back foot, he puts combinations together well. He has great knees and kicks. He will throw nice inside and outside leg kicks. He has good head kicks and front kicks to the body. He has a very nice knee to the head that is pretty tricky. When fighters let him start walking them down and getting his range and confidence going, he is tough to beat. He’s athletic, fast, long and can keep a high volume of strikes on fighters. He doesn’t do as well fighting off his back foot. He can get backed up close to the cage & stands up tall. He can leave his chin in the air a little bit. He doesn’t get hit too much though & his defense is sound. He has just been knocked out one time, against Niko Price. That knockout was almost a freak occurrence & I think you have to say he still has a solid chin. He has 6 KO/TKO’s himself.
Brown is an improving grappler. He is good at using his length to his advantage. He has nice clinch control & nice knees to the body and head. He will shoot double legs sometimes from way too far out, but he’s very good at transitioning into body locks. He will use the double leg entry to come up into double underhooks or a tight waist. He will just dump opponents or even will jump on the back from standing. He prefers to keep position over submission. He has good G & P and he will stand over opponents and throw long punches or nice, hard elbows. He cut Mickey Gall with an elbow & controlled him for two rounds. He can get caught against the cage and get double legged. He stands a bit high in his stance. He has good takedown defense though actually. He has heavy hips and nice double underhooks to defend the takedown. He has nice front chokes and will use them to counter takedown attempts. He will make opponents go to their backs to defend them & takes top position. Off his back, he will attack with good triangle & armbars, but he is too complacent on the ground, and doesn’t have great get-ups. Both of the times he’s been finished were on the mat. He is a tough guy and is hard to submit. He trains at Serra BJJ & with the Danaher death squad & I would say he has underrated BJJ. He has been submitted one time & has 3 submissions himself.
This fight could be real close if it stays standing. I think Brown is the better technical striker, but Alves has more power and is wilder on the feet. I think Alves is going to have the edge on the ground though and is more likely to finish the fight with a submission or a KO. He is the Brazilian in Brazil as well, so I would think a close fight goes his way with the crowd on his side.
On DraftKings, Warlley is my pick here. I think he has 100+ upside and at his price he would be a lock for the optimal if he got there. I don’t see Brown having 100+ upside here but I think he is in play for a late finish or a win and at $7.9k we don’t need 100+. It is going to be Warlley or pass here for me though because I like the underdogs priced around Brown more and I could see Warlley being a core play for me at his price tag. I would be pretty surprised if Warlley doesn’t get at least 10x in a win here and I don’t see him getting finished early, so I think he is a fine cash game option and I want over 35% in GPPs.
Winner – Warlley Alves via 1st round Submission
Francisco Trinaldo $8,400 vs Bobby Green $7,800
Francisco Trinaldo
Age: 41
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: Constrictor Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 13-6
Fight Matrix: 20
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -130
Francisco Trinaldo is looking to bounce back from a highly controversial decision loss to Alexander Hernandez. Trinaldo is a southpaw striker & true veteran. He is a powerhouse who is always going forward. Trinaldo likes to back opponents up & try to push them towards the cage. He has a nasty overhand left that he will throw with big power. He will go to the body with the overhand left as well. He has a very nice round kick to the body as well. He will land the overhand left & then crash with a right hook or straight-right hand to a left hook combination. He has a good right hook over the top. He will throw spinning backfists & back kicks at times. He has good rear leg head kicks. He is always cocked & when he gets hit, he likes to plant his feet & fire back. He will counter with heavy hooks over the top & hard body shots. He is good at catching kicks & returning with counters as well. He likes to plant his feet when he throws & if fighters can keep the movement going, land & angle, he’s very low output. He barely was able to connect at all on James Vick & struggles to get inside on long fighters or fighters with solid footwork & movement. He is definitely a counter fighter & looks to make the cage small front & counter when opponents come in. He was throwing an excellent counter knee when Evan Dunham was shooting takedowns or trying to get inside. He ultimately landed a brutal knee to the body that finished the fight. I definitely think Trinaldo has slowed a bit & isn’t as fast with his reactions. He looks like his chin is a bit diminished to me. He gets wobbled with shots a lot now. Trinaldo has still never been finished by strikes in 29 appearances. Trading with him isn’t a smart option & fighters respect his power so he’s hard to finish standing. Trinaldo throws everything full power & will even off balance himself with how hard he throws. This can be a detriment, but it makes him super dangerous. He has 8 career KO/TKO’s.
Trinaldo is a very strong fighter with solid overall grappling skills. He is a brown belt in Jiu-Jitsu, with decent wrestling. He will rarely go for takedowns, but he has a solid blast double & takedowns against the cage. He is explosive & hard to stop when he gets in on the legs. When he has opponents against the cage he is very good. He has nice knees to the body and will trap the wrist & throw heavy elbows to the head. He is very good at exiting the clinch with strikes. He really battered Paul Felder & Yancy Medeiros in the clinch. His takedown defense has improved substantially over his UFC tenure. He is a brick wall & just very physically strong when opponents crash into him. He has very good double underhooks he will dig, and an excellent sprawl. He is just extremely strong also, and just shrugs opponents off him. He will look for darces & guillotines as opponents go for takedowns against the cage. He will snap opponents down with the front head lock & go for anacondas, darces and guillotines. He has nice chokes from this position. He still can be taken down by fighters who can use their strikes to set the takedowns up or chain wrestle. He was taken down in the clinch vs James Vick. Masaranduba does have excellent get-ups & is hard to control on the ground. When fighters force him to grapple though, he tends to get tired & it’s a smart game plan for Green to make Trinaldo work a bit in the grappling realm. Trinaldo has been submitted 3 times in his career. He has 5 submissions, most being arm triangles. He hasn’t had a submission since 2014 & really doesn’t use his grappling offensively all too much.
Bobby Green
Age: 33
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: Pinnacle MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 5-4-1
Fight Matrix: 70
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 1-3-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +110
Bobby Green is fighting for the first time in 2019. He briefly retired after his decision loss to Drakkar Klose which was a bit of a robbery. Bobby Green is a stance switching fighter with good boxing skills. He holds his hands low and uses a lot of head movement and shoulder rolling to avoid punches. He has a great jab to the body & head and will follow that jab with a hard-right hook or straight-right hand. He has a nice overhand right. He has a nice, check left hook. He likes to throw oblique kicks to the knees and front kicks to the body. He catches kicks well and will return with counter punches. He will throw nice round kicks to the body & head, and he keeps heavy forward pressure and volume on opponents. He lands 5 significant strikes per minute. He will walk opponents down with his hands by his side, countering and landing hard body shots. He is hittable with overhands, but he has a great chin, and rolls with a lot of shots lessening the impact. He has the ability to get dropped and hurt badly such as vs Lando Vannata, recover and perform. He has 8 KO/TKO’s and has only been finished twice with strikes.
Bobby Green is a former wrestler and a strong grappler. He is very athletic and can close the distance into the clinch quickly. He does a good job of digging an underhook, pushing his opponents to the cage and landing knees to the body & elbows to the head. He was landing nasty punches and elbows in the pocket against Eric Koch. He will attempt body lock takedowns, and he has good slam double legs, but he rarely puts much effort into getting the fight to the ground. He has great takedown defense and he is extremely hard to hold down. If fighters can put him on his back, he isn’t very dangerous, and they don’t have to really worry about getting submitted. On top, he has good submissions, he has a nice arm triangle & good rear naked chokes. He has 9 career submissions, but only one in the UFC. He has been submitted two times himself. He has phenomenal cardio, and usually is stronger in the third round then the first.
The line looks about right on this one. I think Trinaldo should be slightly favored with his wrestling ability and his heavy power on the feet. With this being in Brazil, I would imagine a close fight would go his way. Green is the better striker though and lands at a higher pace as well. If he can keep this fight standing he could run away with a decision. I do see Trinaldo mixing in takedowns though which will make rounds closer or go his way, but I think Green is going to be the faster and more well-rounded on the feet to win the striking battles.
I like that this is priced in the mid-range and that is probably going to have me getting exposure to both sides here. More so Green though. I think Green is in play in all formats and I think he probably gets more than 10x in a win. I do think this fight could be very close though or go Trinaldo’s way, so I don’t want to load up on this fight and it is more so a last pick option in my LU based on what I have left. I for sure want Green exposure here though and if Trinaldo doesn’t make my final cut, then I won’t be too upset about it. I think he has the higher ceiling of the two and should be lower owned, but I am picking Green to win. I don’t see me having more than 1-2 Trinaldo LUs where I am fine with ~30% Green as well as using him in cash.
Winner – Bobby Green via Unanimous Decision
Ricardo Ramos $9,200 vs Eduardo Garagorri $7,000
Ricardo Ramos
Age: 24
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 72”
Gym: CSA Gym
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: 65
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -290
Ricardo Ramos is making the move up to 145 lbs after a 4-1 run at BW in the UFC. Ramos is young at just 24 years old & said the weight cut has been getting harder & harder. He said he was walking around 180 lbs, so I don’t see him being a small FW. He is a fantastic athlete with good striking & elite Jiu-Jitsu. Ramos has nice, outside leg kicks. He will throw the occasional jab & one-two. He has really improved his boxing. He has a nice one-two & counter left hook. He will rip the body with hooks in close range & throw tight, left hooks upstairs. He has a nice rear uppercut. His check left hook is accurate. He will throw an overhand right, as well. He likes to throw a jab to a roundhouse or question mark head kick. He will throw front kicks & round kicks to the body. He has a nice step-in knee to the body also. He will throw spinning kicks to the body. He throws nasty spinning back elbows to the head & he had a knockout of the year candidate with one in 2017. He doesn’t throw much volume & unless he addresses that I see him being in a lot of close fights unless he can find finishes. In his fight with Said Nurmagomedov, he was hurt to the body & taken out quickly. It was the first & only time he was finished by strikes in his career. He has two KO/TKO’s.
Ramos is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu champion & is very dangerous with submissions in top & bottom position. Ramos likes to fake level changes & come up with rear uppercuts and spinning back elbows. He is strong in the clinch with knees to the body and has a good body lock takedown. His takedown defense is very strong & he has an excellent get-up game. He will bounce right back to his feet & is extremely hard to control on the mat. He will also attack immediately with submissions & try to create scrambles. He has super-fast hips, great armbars & triangles along with nice leg locks. In his guard, he will try to trap an arm & attack with hard elbows and then look for submissions. Kang was able to control him with heavy pressure in his guard and landed a few nice elbows. Ramos was able to eventually attack with a knee bar, almost got the finish, but used it to sweep. Ramos isn’t a super active wrestler, but he will shoot double legs when opponents are near the cage & decent reactive doubles. He also has good body lock trips. On top, he likes to get to the back & get rear naked chokes. He tends to slow down in round 3, and not throw as much. He does have 2 third round finishes including one in the UFC where he was down 20-18. He has 6 submissions in his career & has been submitted one time.
Eduardo Garagorri
Age: 30
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: Sok Thai
From: Uruguay
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 185
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W13
Betting Odds: +245
Luiz Garagorri was successful in his UFC debut taking a decision win over Humberto Bandenay. Garagorri is undefeated at 13-0, but this is a sizeable step up in competition. Garagorri is a Muay Thai striker who transitioned to MMA. He looks to be a pretty dynamic striker. There isn’t a ton of footage on Garagorri, but he moves well, switches stances & has nasty kicks. He has nice, long punch combinations. He has a nice jab and good one-twos. He has a nice rear uppercut, left hook combo. He has a nice left hook, right straight combination. He has really fast hand speed & will use a lot of feints & then explode into punches. He has excellent kicks. His leg kicks are nasty, and he has really nice round kicks to the body. He will throw nasty spinning back kicks to the body & head that he throws extremely fast without any tell. He has 4 KO/TKO’s.
Luiz Garagorri grappling looks a bit suspect. His takedown defense is not very good, and he can be taken down easily. Against lower level fighters, he was able to reverse takedowns & take top position through sheer athleticism but has poor technique. He was taken down four times by Humberto Bandenay & he tends to give his back when he stands up. Garagorri won’t shoot takedowns offensively but is dangerous with ground & pound if he can take top position. He will also look for submissions. He will look to take the back & get the rear naked. He needs to avoid grappling vs Ramos & use his wrestling in reverse to keep it standing. Garagorri has 6 submission wins.
I like Ramos in this fight and I expect him to be the better fighter everywhere. He doesn’t fight at a real high pace though and he doesn’t put his stamp onto rounds enough for me to trust him at this price. I think his grappling will be the biggest advantage in this fight and if I knew he would look to grapple then I would trust him more and maybe parlay him. I just think this fight could be close and -260 is too steep for that risk.
On DraftKings, Garagorri is my preferred play. I don’t see him having a lot of upside, but he is super cheap and a decision win at 10x could get him there. I can see him being the more active fighter on the feet and stealing a decision that way. I just think he likely loses so I don’t want too much exposure. I think he is in play in all formats though. Ramos might make 1 of my lineups because he should be low owned, and I think he is in play for a submission. I just don’t see him having 100+ upside here and at his price that is what we want. I would much rather pay up for Rua or Bronx.
Winner – Ricardo Ramos via Unanimous Decision
James Krause $9,000 vs Sergio Moraes $7,200
James Krause
Age: 33
Height: 6’2
Weight: 170
Reach: 75”
Gym: Factory X
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 7-3
Fight Matrix: 61
Last Fought: 1 Year 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -185
James Krause had arguably the best performance of his career in his last match. He dominated & knocked out Warlley Alves, and if he can maintain that level of fighting, he may be a threat to the top 15. James Krause has trained & been a coach at Glory MMA & Fitness for a long time, but recently he has made the effort to do his training camps at Factory X in Denver. It paid huge dividends in the Alves fight, and I imagine he will be that much improved for this matchup. James Krause is a very skilled striker. He is constantly switching stances, faking, feinting, and throws a lot of volume. James Krause has an excellent jab & one-two from both stances. He has a nasty one-two, and excellent check left or right hooks. He has fast hand speed for 170 especially & was landing short, stinging shots that rattled Warlley Alves in the pocket. Krause is very calm in the pocket slipping & ripping, and just has very sharp punching ability. Krause will throw nice long straights also and will double up on the two if he has an opponent moving backwards. He has a very nice uppercut inside. Krause also has excellent kicking ability. I assume he will be throwing a lot of low leg kicks in this contest. He has very nice snapping front kicks to the body with both legs. He will go up the head with the front kicks, landing an excellent one vs Alves. He will throw heavy round kicks to the body & head. He will mix in well-timed knees up the middle to the body and head. Krause’s striking looked amazing in his last match & if he can replicate that performance he will be tough to beat. Krause can be hittable at times. Against Alex White, he took some big shots over the top. He has always shown a strong chin & ability to take a shot. He has been finished by strikes just twice & the one vs Bobby Green is very controversial. Krause has power with 7 KO/TKO’s.
James Krause is a strong grappler, and submission artist. He is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu with some decent wrestling. In this matchup, he is going to want to use his wrestling in reverse to keep it standing. He is likely going to have a big advantage in the standup. James Krause does look to back opponents up with his striking & then duck under for double legs. He shows good timing on doubles & body locks and gets pretty easy takedowns. In top position, Krause has good control, ground & pound, and is aggressive looking for the neck. He will wrap up guillotines & likes to get rear naked chokes. Krause will use the guillotine to counter takedown attempts as well. Krause’s takedown defense isn’t the greatest. I think his footwork, and ability to work off both stances does make it hard to get inside, but he can give up takedowns. He is active off his back with triangles, but that’s where he doesn’t want to be with Serginho. If he keeps it standing, he should win this fight all day. Krause has good cardio, and good submission defense. He has been submitted just twice in his career. Krause has 14 submissions himself.
Sergio Moraes
Age: 37
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: Evolucao Thai MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 8-4-1
Fight Matrix: 65
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +160
Sergio Moraes has lost two fights in a row and was brutally knocked out in his last match by Warlley Alves, the same fighter Krause knocked out in his last fight. This is a bit of an odd matchup with Moraes going down, I’m not sure why they would give him someone like Krause. Serginho is a respectable 8-4-1 in the UFC & will be fighting at home. Moraes was undefeated in Brazil until his last match. If you look at Serginho’s resume it is a bit strange. He holds impressive victories over names such as Neil Magny, Omari Akhmedov, Davi Ramos & Tim Means, but also had a draw with Luan Chagas & fought to split decision against low level competition in Zak Ottow. At 37 years old we may have seen the best of Serginho in the octagon already. Serginho isn’t a technical guy with the standup at all. He was also knocked out cold very badly in his last fight after a long beat down just six months ago. On the feet, Moraes is very athletic, he’s fast with his blitz attacks & throws full clip. His whole game is predicated on if opponents stand in front of him or wilt under his forward pressure as far as standup. He will throw these looping hooks that I feel catch fighters when they think they are out of range just because of how loopy & untechnical they are. Moraes will catch fighters with counter hooks inside. He will throw some front kicks to the body & head. His kicks are not very dangerous. Fighters have to respect the power, but it’s been proven in his last two matches if you move & use low kicks and jabs to offset his rhythm, he never really gets going. He has gotten his lead leg battered badly in his last two matches. He also is very hittable with the jab, which I feel Krause should use effectively. Moraes striking has been exposed a bit. He has one TKO & has been knocked out 3 times stiff. Serginho is extremely tough and won’t go down unless you put him out cold.
Sergio Moraes is a multiple time Jiu-Jitsu world champion. We got to see him finally show some of it off against Ben Saunders. Moraes does not have great wrestling. He is decent at using his wide looping shots to get inside & in on a body lock. He has good trip takedowns from there. He will also push opponents to the cage & work double legs from there. He does a great job of keeping heavy top pressure in half guard. He will get a body lock position under half & puts himself in good position to pass to side control. He will methodically move to dominant positions and has great fundamental BJJ. He got a high mount against Ben Saunders & almost got an armbar in round 1. He has gotten a mounted triangle against Neil Magny. He got an arm triangle setup in the mount, moved to side control, cinched it up & submitted Ben Saunders. His match against Tim Means, he pulled guard when he was engaged in the clinch. When he is on his back, he will try to trap an arm and throw up a triangle, and he likes to get to deep half guard and sweep to top position. Opponents haven’t felt comfortable enough to stay in his guard and will stand up from the position and return to striking. Moraes has 8 submission victories & has never been submitted. He has questionable cardio, but a good game for winning decisions. He has had a knack of winning split decisions, and close fights over his UFC career.
I like Krause here. I think he is going to be the much better striker and will land at a higher pace. Moraes is going to need to get this fight to the mat to have a shot here. He could get a sub or win a decision with his grappling, but I don’t see him being able to consistently get takedowns here. I think Krause is going to pick Moraes apart on the feet and I think he can win at least two rounds by stuffing takedowns and keeping this fight on the feet and I will take him to win a unanimous decision here.
I don’t have much interest in this fight on DK. I think Krause gets a decision win here, but I don’t know that he will get 10x and I think it’s more likely that he scores around ~80 or so. He won’t be looking for takedowns and if he doesn’t get the knockout then I just don’t see a ton of upside for him. Moraes is the one who should be looking to grapple here, so I am not against targeting him as the underdog and hoping he gets the sub. I just don’t see me having much exposure to this fight if any at all.
Winner – James Krause via Unanimous Decision
Markus Perez $8,600 vs Wellington Turman $7,600
Markus Perez
Age: 29
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 75
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -125
Markus Perez has been up & down so far in his UFC career. He has traded wins & losses & has a 2-2 record overall. He is coming off a nice win over Anthony Hernandez. He is a fun, flashy fighter who likes to be a showman in the cage, using crazy techniques, taunting, and showing a lot of emotion. Perez likes to fight on the outside & use a lot of kicks. He will throw rear leg body kicks & occasionally go to the head. He will throw front kicks to the body & head. He will switch stances & has a nice straight-left & straight-right hand. His straight-left hand is probably better & he spends more time in southpaw. He has a decent jab, left hook combination, and will feint the jab and throw an overhand left combination. He has nice lead elbows & step-in knees to the body. He throws a lot of wild techniques, such as spinning back elbows & round kicks to the body into spinning heel kicks to the head. He will throw up elbows into spinning back elbows. He is at his best when he gets confident & will get in the pocket & slip and rip. He allows fighters to push him back as well and can almost look like he is running away at times. His awkward striking puts him off balance & in bad positions where he could be countered. He will invite a war when he knows he’s behind & try to steal the fight. He has 3 KO/TKO’s in his career. He has a good chin and is a wild man who has never been finished in his career.
Perez is an opportunistic grappler and will jump on submissions. He isn’t a good wrestler, and he was controlled on the cage or the ground for long periods of time in both his UFC losses. In the clinch, he can be outmuscled and controlled on the cage, but he did show that if he can circle to the back he has nice slam takedowns. He doesn’t do a good job of getting his back off the cage, but he has decent defense and waits for the ref to help him out. He will even pull guard & attack with leg locks to create sweeps. He will attack with a kimura from standing position as well to counter takedown attempts. He likes to try to hit switches and take the back to counter takedown attempts as well and was able to do that and take the back of Ian Heinisch. He eventually got an arm triangle from bottom which is not something you see a lot in that match. He does a good job of getting front chokes such as darces & Peruvian neck ties and he has a good squeeze. He can be taken down & he was controlled easily by Eryk Anders. If opponents can pass his guard, he doesn’t have a great get-up game and will just lay on his back. Perez is coming off a nice submission victory. He hurt Hernandez on the feet & then locked up an anaconda. Maluko has 6 career submissions.
Wellington Turman
Age: 23
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 72”
Gym: Gile Ribeiro Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 135
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +105
Wellington Turman was on the wrong end of a very close decision in his UFC debut. He opened a lot of eyes with his performance vs Karl Roberson & it will be interesting to see how he builds from that. Turman isn’t very technical & very wild. He has a decent one-two, but really relies on blitz attacks. He will leap in with nice left hooks & overhand rights. He will throw kicks after he punches, like left hooks into head kicks. He has nice body kicks also, but they don’t look super powerful. He looks very open & hittable to me. His defense is lacking & relies on offense to hide his flaws. He is a terminator with an excellent chin though & stays in opponents faces. Turman doesn’t really have big power with only 4 career knockouts. He has never been finished.
Wellington Turman is much more dangerous on the mat & has solid submissions. He isn’t a great wrestler, but he’s physical in the clinch & can muscle opponents to the mat. He likes to circle to the back & get rear naked chokes. He has a good squeeze & can lock them in without any hooks in. He is super aggressive & whenever he can get that hand under the neck he will go for it. Turman has good top control & will use the front head lock position to threaten the guillotine and snap down opponents. He can get shucked off the back because of that & I’ve seen opponents control him in his guard. He will throw up some submissions, but he’s not nearly as dangerous off his back. He has a nice guillotine also, but usually sets it up from standing or top position. Turman has 7 rear naked chokes. He has excellent cardio & keeps on coming.
This is a close one. I see Turman having more power on the feet and being the better wrestler of the two. I think Perez could be landing the higher volume and he could win grappling exchanges and might be more dangerous with submissions. I think this is going to end up being a close decision that could go either way, but I am going to lean with the slight underdog and take Turman to land the harder shots and landing takedowns to get the win.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Turman. This is a 50/50 fight in my opinion and it is almost that close on the betting line as well. We are getting a nice discount on Turman on DK at $7.6k and that is going to make him a play I look to go overweight on. I think that will play into his ownership as well, but I will go over 30% here to get some leverage. I think he is in play for a finish and he could get multiple takedowns and pay off his salary in a decision win. I think Perez is in play as well but more so for the finish and a shot at the lower owned guy. I think he might make 1-2 of my LUs but it’s mostly dog or pass here for me. I think Turman is a great cash game option as well with this fight being -245 to go to decision plus his line value.
Winner – Wellington Turman via Split Decision
Andre Muniz $8,200 vs Antonio Arroyo $8,000
Andre Muniz
Age: 29
Height: 6’2
Weight: 185
Reach: 78”
Gym: Tata Fight Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 92
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -115
Two Brazilian DWCS fighters are set to square off in Brazil. Muniz is taking the fight on about one months’ notice after a plethora of opponents were offered & taken away from Arroyo. Arroyo was scheduled to fight Alessio Di Chirico & Kevin Holland who both got rescheduled for different fights. This is a striker vs grappler matchup with Andre Muniz being an elite black belt & Arroyo being a diverse striker with good boxing & excellent kicking ability. Andre Muniz’s striking is to close the distance & get the fight to the mat, but he is very aggressive. He will come forward with big, powerful looping hooks. He will wain forward with no fear of getting taken down. He will mix in some body & high kicks, but not a lot of variety in his striking or technicality. He will brawl with straight punches & uppercuts in the pocket but is very hittable. At range, he definitely will struggle with the striking of Arroyo. He is going to want to cut the cage off, make it small, strike to get ahold of Arroyo & stay on him. Muniz does have a sick pace & won’t stop coming forward. He is willing to take a shot to get inside but is super hittable and has been put down before. In all 4 of his losses he was KO/TKO’d. Muniz has just 4 KO/TKO’s in 18 wins.
Andre Muniz’s takedowns really aren’t very good. He uses Jiu-Jitsu takedowns such as body locks & trips. Muniz will pull opponents on top of him with the body locks, and then quickly attack with sweeps or submissions. Muniz is extremely aggressive with his BJJ as well. He will jump on guillotines & is incredible at snatching them up when they shoot on him. Muniz has nice triangles & an amazing armbar. He will latch on to the arm quickly. When Muniz fought Bruno Assis, Assis was able to control a bit in top position but was swept & beaten up also. Muniz will land nice shots from inside opponent’s guards. In his last match, he used an omaplata to reverse into a body lock, circled to the back & locked in the rear naked choke. In top position, he is looking to get the back & get the rear naked choke most of the time. He will look for arm triangles from half guard also. Muniz’s style is almost borderline reckless & due to that his fights do not make it the distance. He has gone to 3 decisions in 22 fights & is 3-0 in those fights. 10 of his last 12 fights have been finished in the first round. Muniz has finished 14 of his 18 wins within the first two rounds. He has 10 submissions.
Antonio Arroyo
Age: 30
Height: 6’2
Weight: 185
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: Jackson-Wink MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 123
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -105
Antonio Arroyo is a karate stylist riding a 5-fight win streak. He is more of a mover & fights long. He is super athletic & is fast in & out. He has a wide, hands down stance. Antonio Arroyo’s boxing is only okay. He said he has been working on it specifically for this fight. He does have fast hand speed & fluid combos. He will work off his lead hand with the jab & left hook, while mixing in one-twos and hard right hooks or overhands. Arroyo can hold his hands low & get hit over the top with punches inside. When fighters smother his kicks he will back up towards the cage & stand tall. He has great kicks; nasty leg kicks, very fast body & head kicks along with spinning & jumping kicks. I would say he has some of the best kicking technique in the UFC. In this matchup, I am not sure he will be able to work his kicks the same way he usually does against a ground specialist. Arroyo is very explosive with speed & power & could catch & KO Muniz. He has 4 career KO/TKO’s.
I don’t have a strong read either way on this one, but I think Arroyo is the better striker and Muniz is the better grappler. I like Arroyo’s kick game a good bit and if he can keep this fight standing I think he could get a KO with the kicks or win a striking decision. Muniz is going to have the edge on the ground though and he is the more experienced fighter as well. If he can get the fight to the mat, he can get a sub or win a grappling-based decision. It’s a tossup so I wouldn’t bet either side, but I will take Muniz here.
I think the main card is where we want to keep most of my exposure. I think either side of this fight could score over 100 DK points and it has a -140 FDGTD line. I like both sides of this fight because I don’t feel confident on who wins, and I just want to target the ceiling of whoever the winner ends up being. I think there is a decent chance of either a Muniz sub or an Arroyo TKO. Arroyo has been subbed multiple times and Muniz has been TKO’d multiple times. With these guys being the mid-range priced fight this week, I am going to have to try and get at least 50% of this fight and I want exposure to both sides. I will basically decide based on what fits in my lineup and my favorite Muniz LUs I might duplicate to put Arroyo in and lock up the win and hope my other 5 fights are right. I don’t love this fight for cash games though because they both have low floors and I don’t trust either one enough to get the win.
Winner – Andre Muniz via 1st round Submission
Charles Oliveira $9,400 vs Jared Gordon $6,800
Charles Oliveira
Age: 30
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 74”
Gym: Macaco Gold Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 15-8-1
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -355
Charles Oliveira is a well-rounded fighter with good stand up skills. He is long for the division & likes to work behind a front kick to the body & straight punches on the feet. He is light on his feet and has good outside leg kicks. He has a nice uppercut to overhand right, right hook combination. He has a stinging & accurate straight-right hand. He has a good check left hook. He landed a nasty lead elbow in his last match, that really rocked Teymur. He likes to throw step-in knees to the body & flying knees to the body & head. He has good spinning back kicks to the body & head and he will throw jumping front kicks to the body. He will throw spinning backfists as well. He will throw round kicks to the head. He keeps a very high guard and stands tall which leaves him susceptible to body shots. He has been hurt to the body by Donald Cerrone & Anthony Pettis. He does have good power having 7 KO/TKO’s. He dropped David Teymur before jumping on a submission. He earned his first UFC KO/TKO in his last match. He has a good chin and decent durability, but he has shown quit before and has been finished by KO/TKO’d 4 times.
Oliveira is the most dangerous submission artist in UFC history with UFC record 13 career submissions. Oliveira is a strong wrestler and will even pull guard to get the fight to the mat. He has excellent duck unders into the clinch and will get double underhooks and dump his opponents. He has nasty knees in the clinch, and he likes to get the Muay Thai plum, land a couple knees and jump on a guillotine, darce, or anaconda. He is deceptively strong & can muscle fighters in the clinch. He is good at circling to the back and getting the standing rear naked choke or getting his hooks in and pulling his opponent into back mount. His rear naked chokes are excellent & he has an unreal squeeze. When he gets his arm under that chin, his opponents are usually tapping within seconds. He has great reactive double legs, and when he gets on top, he has phenomenal guard passes. He will move into mount where he will posture up and land elbows to force opponents to give their back. If he can’t get takedowns, he will attempt single legs & then pull guard. In guard, he has super-fast hips and is extremely dangerous with triangles & armbars. He has great leg locks as well and does a good job of using them to move into top position. He tends to get too aggressive at times against other elite BJJ fighters and he has been submitted a few times. He has 16 career submissions & has been submitted 3 times. Usually when he wins, it’s a finish & when he loses, he’s getting finished. He has decent cardio and can go all three rounds he’s a veteran.
Jared Gordon
Age: 31
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 68”
Gym: Roufusport
From: New York
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 106
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +295
Jared Gordon’s striking game is forward pressure. He is in perpetual forward motion, always walking his opponents down and stalking them towards the cage. He has a nice, check left hook and decent jab. He has a good straight-right hand. He will throw straight punches in combination in close range. He has a decent body kick. He is hittable, but he is tough, and will continue to take shots and walk opponents down slowly breaking them. He showed much better defense on the feet in his last fight & more power. His forward pressure is going to be the key to his success on the feet. He needs to make Oliveira fight moving backwards and control the pace. Gordon has 6 KO/TKO’s and has been finished by KO/TKO twice.
Gordon is a very good wrestler. He will use his punches to set up double legs, and he does a good job of using the double leg to push his opponents to the cage and change it into a single. He is strong in the clinch and has nice, short punches and elbows. He does a good job of ducking under and landing reactive double legs as well. On top, he has strong ground & pound and good control. He likes to get into half guard, posture up and throw elbows and punches. He is very active with ground & pound and does a lot of damage. He has a heavy top pressure game and does a good job of staying out of his opponent’s guards and raining down shots. He likes to get to side control and get the crucifix position. He has phenomenal cardio and does not slow down at all. He has 2 submissions and has never been finished by submission. In his fight with Carlos Diego Ferreira, he was dominated on the mat vs a good Jiu-Jitsu guy. That should show him he isn’t ready for a fighter like Oliveira on the mat & to keep it standing.
Oliveira is one of the best submission artists I have ever seen, and he has been putting it all together on the feet lately as well. I think he can hang on the feet in this spot, but once the fight hits the ground, I think it could end shortly after. If Gordon can survive submission attempts and drag this fight into the 3rd round, then I think he could maybe finish late. I don’t see him winning rounds 1 or 2 though so I don’t see him getting a decision win. I think Oliveira is going to add to his record of most submissions in the UFC and finishing this fight in round 1. I think his submission prop is a decent spot here if we can get it around even money when it comes out.
Do Bronx is my most confident pick on the card and he would be the guy I look to force in cash games this week. He is -195 ITD and +140 to win in round 1. I like him a lot this week, but my worry is his ceiling. He might only need 1 takedown to get the sub and sometimes he doesn’t even need a takedown and will just jump on a neck. He could win this fight in 20 seconds and score 91 DK points. As the highest priced fighter, I don’t think that would make the optimal. I still want to be heavy on him this week but that is my worry with him in GPPs. For cash games, 90 points would be fine. But for GPPs, I expect Do Bronx to be the chalk and it makes sense to fade this fight in LUs and hope that guys priced under him go over 100 DK points and he doesn’t. Gordon might make a LU for hedge purposes, but I don’t see him having a lot of success in this fight and I think he has the lowest floor on the card.
Winner – Charles Oliveira via 1st round Submission
Mauricio Rua $9,300 vs Paul Craig $6,900
Mauricio Rua
Age: 37
Height: 6’1
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 10-9
Fight Matrix: 25
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -270
Shogun is still a very dangerous Muay Thai striker who must be respected. 21 of his 26 wins are by knockout. He is always looking to take someone’s head off. Shogun likes to use leg kicks to find his range, and he will also use them at the end of punching combinations. Rua throws wild, leaping hooks that are extremely dangerous and can put fighters out. He has gotten better at countering with a left hook, and he has a nice straight-right hand. He does a great job of catching kicks and returning with overhands, and he can drop fighters with that punch. Rua likes to throw a right hook, low kick combination, and sometimes he will fake the right hand and throw a left hook. He also will throw a nasty lead uppercut, but that is a risky shot that puts him at risk of being countered. His punches looked much slower and his movement was more labored against Smith and his constant knee problems and overall health issues may be catching up to him. He has 21 KO/TKO’s in his career and has been finished by strikes 5 times.
Shogun has used wrestling more in recent fights, and he isn’t a bad wrestler. He has good body lock takedowns and will shoot double legs as well. He uses timing more than explosion on his shots, and they need to be well-timed or he will not get them usually. Shogun actually has pretty solid takedown defense overall and does a good job of getting his back to the fence where he’s good at defending takedowns. He can get over aggressive and get timed on double legs and taken down. Rua isn’t a submission threat with just one in his career and has been submitted 3 times himself. His gas tank is good, and he has been responsible for some of the biggest comebacks in UFC history.
Paul Craig
Age: 31
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Scottish Hit Squad
From: Scotland
UFC Record: 4-4
Fight Matrix: 66
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +230
Paul Craig isn’t a great striker. He likes to throw out a jab and try to stay long as he does have a long reach. He likes to throw round and front kicks to the body, and also will throw nice spinning kicks to the body and head. He will throw a one-two, but his hands aren’t great. He likes to counter and go second, but if fighters pressure and close the distance on him, he struggles. He seems to fall in love with one shot and get super predictable like throwing a switch high kick over and over and with little power. If fighters get him moving backwards and throw overhands to counter his jab, he has little answer and will crumble. He doesn’t react well to shots. He has been finished 3 times by strikes. Craig has two KO/TKO victories.
Paul Craig is a dangerous submission artist, with 10 submissions in 12 wins. Craig has good dirty boxing he will attack with hard uppercuts and solid knees. He is open to be hit in close range. Craig has pretty good single and double legs, and he showed improved wresting against Ankalaev & Crute. He doesn’t have incredible top control and fighters are able to stand up from under him, but he will attack with front chokes, and land short punches and elbows. Off his back, he is dangerous if opponents are in his guard, he has a nasty triangle and armbar. He will land hard elbows in his guard and beat fighters up off his back. If fighters pass his guard, they are able to hold and beat him down. He does do a good job of being calm and surviving, and just needs one moment to lock up a submission. His cardio is not good, but he is somehow able to pull off late round submissions when exhausted.
Craig is taking this fight on short notice and is taking on a Brazilian legend in his home country. I think this is a bad spot for Craig and he probably only has a submission shot in this fight. I don’t see him being able to win a 3-round fight on the scorecards here and Rua will be the much better striker. I think Rua is going to chop down Craig’s lead leg and stuff takedowns in this fight. I think he will slow Craig down with the leg kicks and then end up getting a knockout at some point in this fight.
Shogun is my preferred play on DraftKings. He is -150 ITD and I think he could get the KO in round 1. He is going to be a guy I look to go overweight on this week, but I don’t want 100% of any fighter on this card so I am not sure how high I will go. I don’t have a lot of interest in Craig, but he might make 1-2 of my ~20 LUs as a hedge for being heavy on Rua. Craig could get a sub here and I don’t see many people being on him. I like this fight as a whole with the -300 FDGTD line and that is why I will get a small amount of exposure to Craig as well. For cash games, it’s Rua or pass.
Winner – Mauricio Rua via 2nd round (T)KO
Jan Blachowicz $8,900 vs Jacare Souza $7,300
Jan Blachowicz
Age: 36
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 78”
Gym: Berkut WCA Fight Team
From: Poland
UFC Record: 7-5
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -200
Jan Blachowicz is looking to become the MW killer with another victory here. He finished Luke Rockhold in his last match who is a former MW champion & now will be welcoming a legend in Jacare to 205. He will have to go to Brazil to do it and will be right around a title shot with a win. Jan has a very good jab, and he keeps a high guard, using solid lateral movement and fakes to setup his shots. He has a nasty uppercut and will double or even triple up on the jab. He was able to close the distance with long, straight punches and hooks against Manuwa and was super-fast and accurate with his hands dropping Manuwa multiple times. In the pocket, he does a great job of landing short left and right hooks along with his uppercut. He has great eyes in the pocket and is calm and uses good head movement to see the shots from his opponent coming and then countering. He has a nasty left body kick, but he doesn’t throw it as much as he used to. He has a nice inside leg kick. He will finish combinations with a nice clinch knee. He will go high with head kicks. Blachowicz probably doesn’t have the knockout power of Souza, but he can still crack. He has 6 career KO/TKO’s & an insane chin. He has been KO/TKO’d just one time in his career vs Thiago Santos.
Blachowicz does a great job of setting up double leg takedowns and is a black belt in BJJ. He is pretty strong in the clinch, he has good underhooks and will land short shots and control. On top, he is very strong with good ground & pound and dangerous submissions. He showed some great strength in his match with Krylov, sweeping him after he took him down & dominating on top. He was able to transition with ease & always was looking for kimuras and straight armbars. He eventually took Krylov down again to start the round and quickly transitioned to side control again, grabbed an arm triangle and closed the show. Jan has pretty solid takedown defense when he has the cardio, and he really lost in the past mainly due to cardio issues. When he is put on his back, he tends to struggle. He will look for an old school armbar from the guard, but not much else. If Jacare gets him to the mat, he will be in trouble. He has returned to his old gym from when he was successful early in his career and has looked phenomenal. Berkut WCA Fight Team is one of the best teams in Poland packed with talent including great HW boxer Artur Szpilka. They have produced UFC fighters Daniel Omelunchuk, Bartosz Fabinski, Piotr Strauss, and Damian Stasiak. Blachowicz has 9 career submissions, and has been submitted just once himself.
Ronaldo Souza
Age: 39
Height: 6’1
Weight: 205
Reach: 72”
Gym: Fusion X-Cel
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 9-4
Fight Matrix: 8 (MW)
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +170
Jacare Souza is looking to change things up. He has lost 3 of 5 fights & thinking a move to 205 might jumpstart his career again. Souza is a big guy & I think he will fit in fine at LHW. Jacare was a very strong, physical Middleweight. He will slowly walk fighters down and doesn’t use a lot of footwork or lateral movement. He likes to really sit down on his right hook and put a lot of power into it. He will lunge into hooks to close the distance and get the clinch. He will rip to the body with big shots & really attacked the body of Chris Weidman effectively. He will throw front kicks to the body to a left hand or a right hook. He has powerful kicks and even if he lands on the guard, he can stun fighters. He knocked Derek Brunson out with a head kick. He is not the fastest guy on the feet, and that can be exploited. In his fight with Chris Weidman, he did an excellent job of bringing very heavy pressure even after getting hurt and throwing his all into his shots. He obviously maintained his power & landed a brutal shot that knocked out Weidman late in round 3. Against Jack Hermansson, he really struggled with the speed & movement and looked a step behind the whole fight. He has a good chin and showed it in his last fight but took a ton of damage and he was finished vs Robert Whitaker. He has seven knockouts himself.
Jacare is one of the best Jiu-Jitsu fighters in MMA history and actually a pretty strong wrestler. He has strong double legs, especially against the cage and he does a good job of setting it up with his overhand right. He likes to get in the clinch against the cage, and he is very strong there. He has nice trips and good judo throws. He has good takedown defense himself, but it isn’t tested very much as fighters are hesitant to go to the ground with him. Souza has one of the best top games in the sport. He has phenomenal passing ability and will move through opponent’s guards like butter. He likes to move to half guard where he will look for arm triangles and has good control before moving to side control where he has a nasty kimura. He has great back takes and very good back control. If he gets on top, his opponents are usually not getting up. Souza has 14 submissions in his career.
Jacare Souza is towards the end of his career but I think he still has enough left in the tank to possibly win this 5-round main event in Brazil. Jan is a dangerous striker, but he is on the wrong side of 30 himself and this is a big spot for him in enemy territory. I think Jacare is a live dog in this fight and if he can get this fight to the ground, I think he is going to have a big edge and could submit Jan in any round. Jan also slows down a bit in fights and now he has 25-minutes to work with. Jacare can hang with Jan on the feet as well, but it is a more dangerous game plan and his real edge would be on the mat. It’s hard to be confident in Jacare at 39 years old, but at this line, I think it is a dog or pass fight and I am going to pick him to get a late submission in this fight.
On DraftKings, I think I will be all-in on this fight. I think stacking in cash is fine or even fading in cash is fine as well. I don’t think the pace of this fight will be very high though, so we could fade this in GPPs to be contrarian and that might work out this week. However, it is 5-rounds with a -285 FDGTD line, and I don’t think there is any better fight on this card to go all-in on. I also like the underdog to win so Jacare will be a core play of mine this week. I am going to look to get at least 50% of him but ideally more because I want my other LUs to have Jan. I think Jan could get a KO early in this fight and score 100+ so I definitely want exposure to him as well. I think fading Jan makes some sense as well in lineups because he only lands 3.54 sig strikes per minute and I highly doubt he wants to take Jacare down here. If he wins with a low paced KO in rounds 3-5, then he might not be on that optimal lineup and might not even get 10x. I think if Jacare wins, he is likely a lock for the optimal at his price tag because I don’t see how he wins and doesn’t get more than 10x.
Winner – Ronaldo Souza via 4th round Submission
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: https://MMAoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/
- Bets are on a 1-10u scale with 1u = $100.
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