BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN+ 21 Location – Moscow, Russia
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Russia. DraftKings has some OK contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize. Typically, I stay around 20 lineups each week and go after that big GPP and then max the $4 20-entry max GPP as well. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games. (I might skip cash games this week. With no 5-round main event, I am less interested in stacking and I haven’t found a cash lineup I like yet. Might just be GPPs for me this week.)
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Grigorii Popov $9,000 vs Davey Grant $7,200
Grigorii Popov
Age: 35
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: Russia
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 277
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -190
Grigorii Popov will be looking for a different result in his second UFC showcase. Popov was knocked out in a back & forth war vs Eddie Wineland but is getting to return in his home country of Russia. Popov is 35 years old, and this is likely his final chance at a UFC win. Grigorii is a Muay Thai striker. He tends to start slow but can be fun to watch when he opens up. He has a nasty jab & heavy low kicks. He will throw a jab, right leg kick combination. He has a very nice left hook. He will throw a really nice overhand right, left hook combination. He is excellent at blocking & returning with low kicks. He has very good speed & accuracy on his punches. He will not open up stupidly. He will attack the body with jabs, one-twos, and heavy hooks. He has brutal round & front kicks to the body. He doesn’t have much wind up at all in his kicks and they come extremely fast. He will bring the front kick to the face. He has very nice spinning heel kicks to the body & will throw spinning backfists. In a lot of MMA fights, I have seen him hold his hands very low. I don’t know if that is to just be ready to defend takedowns, or to bait opponents in, but in Muay Thai he doesn’t do that. He is good at catching opponents with straight punches & hooks as they try to close the distance. He does get hit at times due to this, unnecessarily. In his fight vs Eddie Wineland, he was getting drilled with the straight-right hand repeatedly. He was dropped & ultimately knocked out. He had some small success in the fight, but it was a bad performance overall. He didn’t do much & took a lot of damage. He tends to start slow & then open up in the later rounds. Due to this he could potentially lose a decision by being out volumed. He has good cardio and comes in great shape. He has solid power with 4 KO/TKO’s. He has been knocked out one time.
Grigorii is very good in the clinch. He has nasty knees to the legs & body, and elbows over the top. He has nice body lock, & hip toss takedowns. He is strong in top position with good elbows. He will throw nice ground & pound and likes to get the mount. He has a decent rear naked choke & two gogoplata finishes. He can be taken down himself, but he will attack off his back with elbows, and has good get-ups. In this fight, Grant will be looking to mix it up, so Popov has to be ready to defend takedowns. Popov can give up the center, especially early. He can be taken down near the cage. He does have decent get-ups. Popov has 3 submissions & has only been submitted one time in his pro debut.
Davey Grant
Age: 33
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: SBG Manchester
From: England
UFC Record: 1-3
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +165
Davey Grant is returning after nearly a year and half off. He has been very inactive in recent years, only fighting two times since 2016. Grant hasn’t won a fight in almost 4 years. He is 1-4 in the UFC and coming off of being finished in less than a minute. A loss here would almost certainly lead to him being cut. Grant is an aggressive, forward pressure striker. He likes to come forward with a wide stance & use long punches. He has a nice jab & a good one-two. When he gets inside he likes to throw wide hooks & overhands. He will sit down & throw with power along with attacking the body. He has very nice knees when he gets fighters against the fence. He will land big knees from the Thai plum at the end of combinations. Grant will close the distance with nice, lead uppercuts. Grant has nice round & front kicks to the body & head. He also throws front leg sidekicks to all parts of the body. Grant does hold his hands low & can be a little bit reckless in the way he closes distance. He can throw naked kicks that get him countered. He got dropped hard by a straight punch vs Manny Bermudez by throwing an unset-up kick. Davey Grant is not a big power fighter & relies on volume. He has just one career TKO. Grant is very tough & you will have to put him out to stop him. He has never been finished by strikes.
Davey Grant is a decent wrestler. He will use his forward pressure to back opponents to the cage & shoot in on singles & doubles against the fence. Grant is strong in the clinch & has good offense with knees & dirty boxing from there. When he gets top position, Grant will try to transition quickly to dominate positions. Grant will land big punches from the mount forcing opponents to give their backs & scoring rear naked chokes. He has four career rear naked chokes. Grant can be swept when going for dominant positions and has had an issue with submission defense over his career. Grant has been put in armbars when inside opponents guards & submitted. He also can be taken down himself. He will use guillotines to counter takedown attempts. He has a pretty good guillotine. Grant will attack from his back with armbars & triangles. His guard isn’t very dangerous though, and fairly easy to pass. Davey Grant has been submitted in all four of his losses. He isn’t a part of the quick tap club & will fight to get out of the subs. He was put to sleep with a triangle against Manny Bermudez in his last match. Grant usually comes in with good cardio & being able to push is a strength for him. He should come in great shape in a make or break fight for him.
Popov is going to have the edge on the feet in this match, but I would think Grant has the edge on the ground. I think Popov can keep this fight standing for the most part and as long as he doesn’t get submitted I think he does enough on the feet to get the win.
I don’t have a lot of interest in this fight for DraftKings. With a limited number of lineups, it might not even make my pool. I like Popov to get the win here, but I don’t think we will see him go for any takedowns and he is +205 ITD. I think it will be hard for him to pay off his salary here without a finish. Grant will be looking to grapple here so I think he is going to be my preferred play at $7.2k. If he can get the win, I feel much more confident he will pay off his salary with a grappling-based game plan. I think he is in play in all formats here, but I don’t see me getting much exposure to him.
Winner – Grigorii Popov via Unanimous Decision
Jessica-Rose Clark $8,200 vs Pannie Kianzad $8,000
Jessica Rose-Clark
Age: 31
Height: 5’4
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Combat Sports Academy
From: Australia
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -115
Jessica Rose-Clark makes her return to the octagon following a year and half hiatus. Jessy Jess had two fights scheduled in which she had to pull out of both, so hopefully she will have some better luck in Moscow. Clark had a fight pulled due to weight cutting issues and has decided to move back up to BW. She looks in excellent shape on social media, and pretty ripped. She will also be getting a chance to avenge a loss here. Kianzad had a UD victory over Clark in 2015. Clark likes to come forward with a high guard and does a good job of parrying and hand fighting. She isn’t the fleetest of foot but is getting faster and more explosive. She cuts the cage off well and throws nice leg kicks. The leg kick will be an important thing for Clark on the feet. Clark has a nice straight-right and closes the distance with good punching combinations. She has a nice step-in knee. She will throw hard body & head kicks. Clark’s boxing defense isn’t good. She will close distance with her hands low & walk into punches. She got stunned hard by punches vs Jessica Eye, and was boxed up by Kianzad in the first fight. Clark has 2 KO/TKO’s and never been finished with strikes.
Jessica-Rose Clark is a very strong fighter. She is good in the clinch and will go for body lock takedowns. She will land hard knees to the body and head. She likes to get in half guard and control top position while looking for the arm triangle. She does a good job of controlling position and winning the round. She doesn’t do very much with the top position in most fights, and in her first fight with Kianzad she couldn’t control her on the ground. Clark is good in the scrambles. She pulled guard, went for a leg lock and then transitioned into a double leg against Paige VanZant, and then later in the round got shook off the back and immediately locked in a tight triangle. In this fight, Clark should grapple & look to control on top or in the clinch. Clark has two career submissions, but I doubt she gets one here. Rose Clark seemed to gas out in her last fight. It looks like she is in great shape for this fight though.
Pannie Kianzad
Age: 27
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 66”
Gym: Arte Suave
From: Sweden
UFC Record: 0-2
Fight Matrix: 21
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -105
Pannie Kianzad is still in search of that illusive first UFC win. She is currently 0-2 so far in UFC fights. Kianzad has hit a bit of a rough patch in her career. After starting 8-0, she is just 3-5 in her last 8 fights. She is still young at just 27 years old & has a good opportunity to defeat a name fighter in which she’s already defeated, Jessica-Rose Clark. Pannie Kianzad is a good boxer. She has a very good lead left hand. Her jab & left hook are big facets of her game. She can rely too much on those shots at times. She has a nice straight-right hand. At range, she usually throws only one-shot attacks. She likes to stick & move. She will try to double jab her way inside. When she wants to get inside or back opponents against the fence, she will throw a left hook, straight-right hand or blitz forward with straight punch combos to back opponents up. She is also good at mixing it up & attacking the body with jabs & hooks. Her kicks aren’t very dangerous & she doesn’t throw them much. She will throw occasional leg & body kicks. She throws some jab to head kick combinations. She likes to use spinning backfists also. Kianzad doesn’t control the center well & can get backed up towards the cage. I actually thought she had a better performance in her last fight & controlled the center much better. In the past, she would allow opponents to flurry on her while she backed up in straight lines. She has power in her hands & I’ve seen her drop recent opponents most often with her left hook. She has 3 career KO/TKO’s & has been TKO’d one time. In her fight with Avila, she got dropped a couple times.
Pannie Kianzad is a competent grappler. She uses her combinations to crash into the clinch. She will dig strong, double underhooks & has nice knees & short punches. Kianzad doesn’t seem too physically strong and fighters can reverse & control her against the cage. Kianzad has solid body lock takedowns. Her top game is not very dangerous. She doesn’t have the greatest top control & zero career submissions. Kianzad allows herself to get backed up towards the cage much too easily. She has decent takedown defense, but not great. When she’s put on her back, she is active in her guard with submissions. She has decent armbars and leg locks she uses to sweep. If fighters can pass the legs & move to side control, they have success. She gives her back to try to stand up & lost via rear naked choke recently against Macy Chiasson. Kianzad does scramble well and has good submission defense. She seems to love scrambling & being on the mat. She will be smiling when opponents have armbars locked in on her & is not part of the quick tap club. She was dominated on the mat in her last match. Kianzad needs to avoid being on her back in this matchup. I don’t think she will be in much danger of being finished because she’s tough, but I could see her being controlled. Kianzad has been submitted two times. Kianzad is a warrior & loves to scrap. She should be confident having beat Clark before, and come in tip top shape knowing this is a make or break fight.
This is a rematch from 2015 where Kianzad won a unanimous decision. This one is about as close as the line says, and I don’t think there is any big edge for either fighter here and I don’t have a strong lean one way or the other. I feel like Clark is the one who has made more improvements since their last fight, so I think she can have more success in this fight on the ground, so I will take her in a super close back and forth fight.
I don’t have much of a preference in this fight and I am fine with a full fade on it if you want to go that route. I don’t really see 100+ point upside with either fighter here but I do think they can pay off their salaries, so I might end up with a small share of each. I don’t love many underdogs this week, so I might have to target this mid-range a lot. If they were the same price, then I would prefer Clark here but with Kianzad being $200 cheaper I could see me having her in lineups where I can’t find that extra $200. With 10 lineups I would probably go with 0-2 of either fighter here and maybe just an even 1 & 1 where I duplicate the rest of the lineup.
Winner – Jessica-Rose Clark via Split Decision
Roosevelt Roberts $8,500 vs Alexander Yakovlev $7,700
Roosevelt Roberts
Age: 25
Height: 6’1
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: Cortez Martial Arts
From: California
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 113
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -155
Roosevelt Roberts is stepping into the octagon for the first time in his career following a loss. He had his undefeated streak ended by the tough Vinc Pichel. This is the first fight out of the country for Roberts, and he will be facing a Russian in Russia. Roberts is a good prospect. He has nice leg kicks and good front kicks to the body. He has a nice one-two & jab, right hook. He has a good left hook he throws backing up. He allows himself to get backed up, but he has good head movement & hand speed. He keeps his chin a bit high and good fighters could counter and land clean punches. He does do a decent job of parrying and using head movement to avoid punches. He likes throwing hooks and uppercuts in the pocket but can get a bit flat footed and he tends to lean back at times to avoid shots instead of using lateral movement. His counter left hook is dangerous, and he has solid power in his hands. He has 3 TKO’s in his career, but most of those have come from top position on the ground. He has never been knocked out.
Roberts is a great submission grappler. He can get backed up & controlled in the clinch, but he is very dangerous there. He can snatch up front chokes. He got a nasty guillotine against Darrell Horcher from standing. He is explosive closing the distance with double legs and will elevate and slam opponents to the mat. He is also very strong in the clinch where he gets easy body lock takedowns due to his length. On top, he does a great job of passing, moving to dominant position and raining down punishment. He gets a high mount and is very hard to buck off while landing hard, relentless G&P. He does a great job of landing frame elbows, eventually forcing his opponents to get TKO’d or give their back and get rear naked choked. He is dangerous with standing chokes and will jump on guillotines and front chokes. Roberts’ defensive wrestling was the main reason he lost his last fight. Pichel was able to back him & and hit double legs on him against the cage. He has 4 career submissions. He has 3 guillotines & a rear naked choke.
Alexander Yakovlev
Age: 35
Height: 6’1
Weight: 155
Reach: 74”
Gym: K-Dojo Warrior Tribe
From: Russia
UFC Record: 3-4
Fight Matrix: 76
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +135
Alexander Yakovlev returned after a 2.5-year layoff earning a stoppage victory in April. Yakovlev is very experienced and fought elite level competition. He has been fighting since 2004. He has fought the majority of his career at 170 lbs & is a huge LW. Yakovlev stands 6’3 & is a rangy southpaw. Yakovlev is a technical striker. He likes to use his range & land nice jabs & straight punches. He will throw a nice one-two and jab, left hook. He has a nice straight-left hand & uses it to maintain distance. He will follow the straight-left with a right uppercut or right hook. He has nice inside leg, body & head kicks. He uses a lot of movement & won’t brawl or exchange much. He can allow opponents to control the center & lose in the eyes of the judges by constantly getting backed up. He does tend to sometimes extend his arms to defend punches, or circle away with his hands low. This does leave him susceptible to possibly being hit. He also can stand heavy on his lead leg when he sits down on punches. He has 9 KO/TKO’s & has been finished by strikes just once and has a solid chin.
Alexander Yakovlev is a strong grappler. He is solid in the clinch with knees, and control. He has very nice timing on single & double legs. He is good at elevating opponents & moving directly into side control. He will catch kicks & take opponents down off them. He has a strong mount take & will chase the back mount. He doesn’t have the greatest top control & fighters have been able to scramble back to their feet when he takes them down. He can be taken down himself, but he is decent off his back. Against the cage, Yakovlev has much better takedown defense than in space. He will stuff the head, sprawl heavy & look for front chokes. He had a scramble fest fight with his last opponent, Alex Da Silva. Yakovlev was controlled against the fence & taken down, but showed good ability to get-up from bottom, and ultimately got a guillotine finish. He was able to survive 3 rounds with Demian Maia & even took Maia down. Yakovlev has 8 career submissions & been submitted 4 times. All four of his submission losses have been via arm locks. Yakovlev has solid cardio & the style to win decisions.
I am picking mostly Russians on this Russia card, but I have to lean with Robert in this one. I think Roberts is the better striker here and I like his wrestling more than Yakovlev’s. The ground is where Yakovlev should be looking to get this fight, and if he can, then that is where he will have most of his success. I just think Roberts is more likely to land the takedowns here or even just stuff the takedowns and choose to stand.
This could be a decent fight to target and I expect to see some grappling here. I like that they are priced near that mid-range and I think both guys could look to grapple in this fight. I think Yakovlev could be a decent underdog play here because if he does have success it would be through the grappling and I think Roberts might even prefer to stand, so we wouldn’t see a big ceiling with him. I won’t go heavy on either side of this fight, but I think they are both in play and I would be pretty surprised if this fight didn’t hit the mat.
Winner – Roosevelt Roberts via Unanimous Decision
Abubakar Nurmagomedov $9,300 vs David Zawada $6,900
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
Age: 29
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: AKA
From: Russia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 131
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: 1 Draw
Betting Odds: -320
A third Nurmagomedov is set to grace the octagon as Khabib’s cousin Abubakar makes his UFC debut. Abubakar is already experienced with a record of 15-2-1. He has been competing in the WSOF & PFL promotions for the last few years. Abubakar is a well-rounded fighter & fluid offensive striker. He has good in & out movement, complimenting his feints & head movement. Abubakar controls the center of the cage well. He is a southpaw and likes to work behind jabs, and his left kick. Nurmagomedov throws inside, outside low kicks early & often. He throws tight one-twos down the middle. His straight-left hand is accurate both to the body & head. He has a powerful overhand left & left uppercut. In the pocket, he will faint takedowns & throw some powerful hooks & uppercuts. He can slip & rip effectively at times attacking the body & he has a nice check right hook. He has a nasty left round kick both to the body & head. He also has excellent timing on step-in knees to the body. Abubakar does not like getting pressured on the feet. He will turn into pure wrestling mode & shoot in desperately on the legs. He is a solid striker, but he tends to not move his head when he throws punches. In his loss in the PFL he was countered with an uppercut while throwing a jab, dropped & submitted. Abubakar struggles on the inside. He is susceptible to low kicks & getting caught with counters in the pocket. He likes to be on the outside or in on the legs or body lock. Abubakar has been finished one time via doctor’s stoppage. I have seen him dropped, but when he’s hurt, he usually can rely on his wrestling to bail him out. Abubakar has 6 KO/TKO’s.
Nurmagomedov, as you probably would’ve guessed, is a phenomenal wrestler. He is excellent at punching his way into takedowns. He will land a punch & immediately duck under into a double leg. He will get his hands connected & dump or come up into body locks or trips. Abubakar sets up his takedowns well in space but is more effective when he can take fighters down near the fence. He will jam opponents against the cage where it’s hard to scramble & throw up submissions. He will look to turk the legs to hold opponents down & try to slide into mount. He will move into half guard, trap the far wrist with the seatbelt grip & chip away with ground & pound. He forces opponents to give their backs to get out of the position. Fighters have been able to give their backs & stand up with the help of the cage. Abubakar is good at staying connected & returning opponents to the mat when they do. Abubakar can get stagnant in top position & stuck in opponent’s guards. He will go body, head with short shots but isn’t super active. He can get put in guillotine & triangle positions but has good defense. It can make him be very conservative when opponents are active off their backs. I don’t think he has a lot of faith in his Jiu-Jitsu. I have seen him swept with kimuras and almost submitted. Abubakar isn’t much of a submission threat. He has 4 career submissions, but three of the fighters he’s submitted had losing records. He hasn’t earned a submission since 2014. In space, Abubakar is very hard to takedown. He has fast, heavy hips & a great sprawl. Bojan Velickovic was able to use his striking to back Abubakar up & took him down near the cage multiple times with doubles. He had success controlling Nurmagomedov against the cage a bit also. Nurmagomedov was able to reverse position very quickly. He is excellent at creating scrambles off his back & retaking top position. Against Bojan, Nurmagomedov was not really able to control him. The fight was ruled a draw. In his most recent loss he was dropped & submitted by rear naked choke. Abubakar definitely isn’t as good as Khabib or even Islam. He doesn’t possess the same type of top control & ground & pound. He has great cardio & the will to win. I’m sure he will be hungry to impress in his debut in Russia.
David Zawada
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 75”
Gym: UFD Gym Düsseldorf
From: Germany
UFC Record: 168
Fight Matrix: 0-2
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +260
David Zawada is likely getting his last opportunity for a win inside the octagon. He is 0-2 in his previous UFC fights, and needs a victory to keep his job. He is not getting an easy matchup facing a Nurmagomedov in Russia. David Zawada is explosive, athletic, and a very physically imposing fighter. He likes to stalk opponents and controls the center very well. He closes the distance with a left hook, straight-right hand. He also will blitz forward with two or three straight-right hands. Zawada is good at feinting to create pull counter opportunities. In the pocket, he will let go with multi punch combinations, and he has good head movement slipping punches in the pocket. He is very willing to exchange in the pocket and he rarely ever takes a step backwards. He has a good step-in knee, and he also has nice body kicks. He wears on opponents and you could see that in his UFC fight vs Danny Roberts which was a grueling match. Zawada was able to drop Li Jingliang as well. Zawada has 11 KO/TKO’s in his career and is a finisher. He has only been finished one time via KO in his career and has a strong chin. He was finished with a side kick to the body in his last match.
David Zawada is a dangerous submission grappler. Zawada isn’t a super active seeker of the takedown, but I feel late round takedowns could help seal the fight in this match. Zawada will use blitz attacks to get in on singles & doubles against the cage. He likes to use trips & sacrifice throws in the clinch. I would stay away from the throws in this match. I’m not sure he will be able to control Abubakar, but he can wear on him & give him something to think about. Abubakar also gives his back to stand up, and Bojan was almost able to take his back in round 3. Zawada is going to be taken down, the fight will be won if he is able to submit or get back to his feet. Zawada has a very active, dangerous guard. He will attack with triangles & almost caught Danny Roberts in an armbar. Zawada will roll for leg locks as well. Nurmagomedov has struggled with fighters who have active guards, and triangles specifically. If Zawada can get Abubakar thinking about the sub, he will be able to mute a lot of his offense from top position. I have seen fights such as Abubakar’s fight vs Jonathan Westin where he becomes very defensive, even in top position, just hanging out in the guard controlling & looking to win the fight on points. Westin was very active off his back vs Nurmagomedov with subs & ground & pound, and arguably won the fight off bottom. I think Zawada has to show some urgency though. Even if he feels he’s being effective off his back, I still think the judges will favor the control. Zawada has a pretty good butterfly guard & if the dubs aren’t working, he needs to work back to his feet. He cannot be content just attacking submissions off bottom. Zawada does have pretty good sweeps & I definitely think he can hold his own in the grappling. He has shown some poor fight IQ in the grappling realm in recent fights. He will attack with front chokes which put him on his back if he can’t get them. He also got very tired in a grappling heavy fight vs Danny Roberts. Zawada did take his first two UFC fights on short notice, and this is the first time he is getting a full camp. Zawada has 3 submissions.
I am not sold on Zawada and this seems like a setup fight for Nurmagomedov. I think his grappling is going to be too much for Zawada here. I don’t trust him enough at this line and I don’t know how high his ceiling is in the UFC, but I do think he could win with a stoppage or a decision here and he is my pick to win with a grappling-based game plan.
Nurmagomedov is likely going to be a core play for me if I can afford him. His path to victory is through takedowns and he will probably rack up quite a few. He is like a poor man’s Khabib so I don’t see him being able to keep Zawada on the mat, but I think he can get multiple takedowns each round. I like him in all formats here and he will probably be in more than half my lineups. He isn’t great though and I think he will be highly owned, so I don’t hate a low owned shot on Zawada for a KO chance. I am not sure if I will make it to him with 10 or less lineups, but if I go 20 then I think he would make my player pool.
Winner – Abubakar Nurmagomedov via Unanimous Decision
Roman Kopylov $8,300 vs Karl Roberson $7,900
Roman Kopylov
Age: 28
Height: 6’2
Weight: 185
Reach: N/A
Gym: Shlemenko Storm School
From: Russia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 50
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -110
Roman Kopylov will be making his UFC debut as an undefeated prospect & former fight night global champion. Kopylov is 8-0 with 7 finishes. Kopylov was scheduled to make his UFC debut in April vs Krzysztof Jotko but had to pull out due to an injury. This is the first fight of 2019 for Roman. Kopylov looks like a beast striker. He is a southpaw, light on his feet, and lightning fast. He has a nasty jab and his straight punches are pistons. His straight-left hand is a sniper to the body & head. He is constantly faking, feinting and looking to counter. He has an excellent check right hook. He has fast hands inside & flurries with hooks & uppercuts to back fighters off. Kopylov doesn’t stick around in the pocket though, he will land his flurry and circle out. His head movement is also very good. He will look to catch fighters entering with lead elbows. He will time front knees to the body when opponents try to level change or get inside. Most of the time he is the fighter pressuring forward behind feints & the jab trying to draw out counters. His distance control with his straight-left hand is awesome, and he stays defensively sound. He will slide just out of the way of strikes, so he can be in range to counter. He really doesn’t get hit much in his fights. Opponents have had some success with leg kicks against him. Kopylov has nasty, left round kicks to the body, along with nice spinning kicks. Kopylov will not throw in combination very much & doesn’t put himself at risk. He is undefeated & while he has power it’s more about timing with Roman. He isn’t loading up on big shots or throwing wide looping shots. When he knocks opponents out, he is landing an accurate shot that had great timing on it. He hurts a lot of opponents with body shots. Kopylov has won 7 consecutive fights by KO/TKO after winning a decision in his UFC debut.
Roman Kopylov is a striker & doesn’t grapple much offensively. He is a 5 times hand to hand combat world champion, so I imagine he has good wrestling skills. Defensively he is very hard to takedown. He has fought some good Russian wrestlers & his takedown defense held up well. Roman has good distance control & it’s hard to shoot good takedowns on him at range. He is very good at limp legging out of single legs, and has great balance when opponents get in on the legs. Against the cage he will use over/unders & wrist control to escape. I haven’t seen him fight off his back or in top position much. When he fought a protege of Khabib’s father, he was taken down, but used the cage to stand back up quickly. I have seen Roman catch some kicks & dump opponents, but he didn’t follow them to the ground. I didn’t see any of his top game in the fights I watched. I don’t expect him to wrestle here, and it should be a striking fight. Roman has no career submissions. Kopylov has been fighting in five round fights & his cardio holds up.
Karl Roberson
Age: 29
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: Nick Catone’s MMA
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 59
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -110
Karl Roberson got back on track by the skin of his teeth in his last fight. He won a split decision over Wellington Turman to avoid a two-fight losing streak. This will be Roberson’s first time fighting in Russia, but he has fought once in Brazil. Roberson is very athletic & a good prospect. He is very fast & has a nice straight-left hand. He has a nasty counter right hook. His straight-left hand keeps opponents at bay & and he’s able to potshot fighters from the outside. He has strong leg kicks & body kicks. He will brawl at times & he has an issue with leaning back & returning relying heavily on speed. He will throw uppercuts in close range & can get a bit wild closing the distance at times. He can also back up a bit awkwardly when he’s defending blitzes. He needs to land & angle off, use a lot of movement & not stand in front of opponents. He has a similar striking style to his opponent, but I think Roman is faster & more polished. He doesn’t throw many combinations & he should look to improve that because I feel if he can land a second shot after his left hand, he can put fighters out more consistently. Roberson has 2 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished with strikes.
Roberson is improving his grappling immensely. He uses well timed double legs & shows a lot of strength & explosion getting easy slams right into side control. On top, he has good ground & pound elbows and transitions to mount landing shots there as well. He has good top control. He has shown to be very dangerous in the clinch. He has wicked knees to the body & head and nasty elbows. He finished Ryan Spann in less than a minute with Travis Browne elbows while defending the takedown. Against Glover Teixeira he hurt him with the same elbows very badly but couldn’t finish Glover. He was also able to take the back & submit Darren Stewart, so he has shown some ability on the ground. He still needs work off his back. He has been on his back three times in the UFC, twice he was finished via arm triangle. Both of those matches were against black belts. In his last match with Wellington Turman, he showed very poor IQ. He grappled with Turman, put himself in bad positions & made the fight much closer than it needed to be. In this fight, he won’t have to worry about many takedowns in my opinion. Roberson has 3 submissions & been submitted two times.
I expect a pretty technical kickboxing match here. Both guys do have a lot of power and either could end the fight with a knockout. I think this will be pretty close though and if it was taking place in America I would probably choose Roberson here. But it is in Russia, so I have to think a close fight would go to the home fighter over there.
I think we are going to need a finish for one of these guys to end up on the optimal lineup. I think they are in play for the KO potential but if this goes all 3-rounds I think it will be a lower scoring decision. I am not against fading this fight for that reason. I probably end up with 1 or 2 lineups with each guy since I see me having to target this mid-range, but I am definitely not starting any lineup with this fight. I don’t think I would trust either guy in cash games either so maybe just a sprinkle in GPPs on both guys. If you have a strong lean either way, then I would go heavier on that side and maybe fade the side you don’t like.
Winner – Roman Kopylov via Split Decision
Rustam Khabilov $8,600 vs Sergey Khandozhko $7,600
Rustam Khabilov
Age: 33
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: Eagles MMA
From: Russia
UFC Record: 9-3
Fight Matrix: 35
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -200
Rustam Khabilov returns for his second appearance in Russia in the UFC. He will be taking on a fellow Russian opponent & looking to get back on the horse. He had a six fight UFC win streak snapped in his last fight. He was beaten down badly by Diego Ferreira taking a lot of punishment. Khabilov is very explosive & athletic. He has a nice jab & straight-left hand. He will throw a left hook. He has a nice straight-right hand & great overhand right. He will throw a left hook, straight-right hand combination. He will attack the body with a straight-right hand. He will throw a left hook to the body & then a left hook to the head. He will throw counter left hooks & straight-right hands. He does a good job of landing long hooks in combination when he has opponents against the cage. He will throw rear uppercuts. He has good leg kicks & front kicks to the body. He will throw spinning back kicks to the body & head. He doesn’t have big power, and just 4 KO/TKO’s. He has a strong chin & has never been finished by strikes.
Khabilov is a great grappler. He is strong in the clinch & has good control. He cut Kajan Johnson in the clinch with a big elbow. He will throw spinning back elbows off the break. He has very good single & double legs. He has great timing on his doubles & he can lift and slam opponents. He will shoot doubles into a body lock take the back & land nasty suplexes. On top, he has good control & will throw enough ground & pound to keep top position. He isn’t overly dangerous in top position. He likes to get his opponent’s heads near the cage, where it’s harder for them to scramble & attack with submissions. He has 4 career submissions & been submitted one time.
Sergey Khandozhko
Age: 27
Height: 6’1
Weight: 155
Reach: 74”
Gym: Fight Club No. 1
From: Russia
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 217
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +170
Sergey Khandozhko will be looking to move to 2-0 in his UFC tenure. He will be making the drop down to lightweight for the first time since 2012. At 6’1 he will be a huge lightweight & tower over the 5’8 Khabilov. Sergey is a solid striker & an explosive athlete. He is very good in & out with great distance control. He is super-fast. He has good movement & likes to work behind the jab. He has a nice one-two & a nasty left hook to the body & head. He will throw a jab, left hook to the body combination. He likes to walk opponents into his jab, left hooks & straight-right hands. He has very nice front & round kicks to the body. He will throw a nice switch kick to the body. He will throw very nice spinning back kicks to the body & head that can close the show. Khandozhko gives up the center pretty easily and allows opponents to back him towards the cage. He has 12 career KO/TKO’s and has only been TKO’d one time.
Khandozhko is a solid grappler. He is good in the clinch and has very good judo. He has nice hip throws and will move from side control to mount with ease. He has nice ground & pound there. He doesn’t have the best top control & opponents are able to explode back to their feet. Khandozhko takedown defense is a little bit suspect. He will use a whizzer & his height to get trips & reversals. Persistent wrestlers can take him down, and he can be taken down off naked kicks. When he is taken down, he will try to explode back to his feet quickly, but he gives his back to stand up. I have seen opponents control him from the back mount along with submit him with rear naked chokes. Khandozhko has 7 submissions, but a lot of those are early in his career. In this fight, he definitely will be looking to keep the fight standing. He has been submitted two times. Khandozhko has questionable cardio & was very tired late in round 3 of his UFC fight.
Khabilov has fought and beat some big names in the UFC. He is well-rounded, has a lot of high-level experience, but his grappling is the best part of his game and he doesn’t wrestle at a high enough pace to win fights convincingly. He also isn’t much of a finisher and he looks to be on the decline of his career. I think Khandozhko is a live dog in this fight and I think he can win this fight on the feet with volume. He is a dangerous striker but I don’t know that he can KO Khabilov so I will take him to get a win by decision.
On DraftKings, Khandozhko is going to be one of my favorite underdogs because I am picking him to win. I don’t see him getting a KO or looking for takedowns though, so I don’t like the ceiling for him, just the fact that I think he is a live dog in this spot. I am probably going to end up with 30% or more of him and if I was playing cash games I think he would make that lineup as well. I am not interested in Khabilov from what we have seen from him lately, but if you want to play him for his grappling upside I think that is fine. I am just going to take a side here and go dog or pass.
Winner – Sergey Khandozhko via Split Decision
Magomed Ankalaev $9,400 vs Dalcha Lungiambula $6,800
Magomed Ankalaev
Age: 27
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: Gorets FT
From: Russia
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 33
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -400
Magomed Ankalaev has rebounded from his debut loss with back to back victories. He will be fighting in his home country & is a sizeable favorite. Ankalaev is a very athletic fighter for LHW. He is a southpaw & explosive himself. He has a nice, long jab. He will jab to the body & has hard low kicks as well. He has very nice straight-left hands & left hooks. He likes to throw a round kick to the body to a straight-left right hook combination. He has a nice jab, overhand right combo. He has a strong counter straight-right hand & counter left hook. He likes to mix in nice shovel hooks & short uppercuts into his hook combinations in the pocket. His rear leg head kick is very fast & he will follow with a straight-left hand down the middle. He is a power kicker, whether it’s to the legs, body, or head, and when he lands fighters will feel it. He landed a nasty counter left hook to a head kick combination and finished his opponent. He is a bit of flat footed, but he walks opponents down & has a presence in the cage. When he lets his shots go, he is fast, and I feel hand & kick speed wise he is one of the fastest LHWs in the division. Ankalaev has power with 5 KO/TKO’s in 10 wins. He has good durability and has never been finished by strikes.
Ankalaev is a very strong grappler, and great wrestler. He is very strong in the clinch & will control opponents against the fence. He will do damage from that position and land hard elbows & knees. He is great off the breaks and will unload with punch combinations, sometimes finishing with knees to the head. He has strong double legs & can lift opponents & dump them on their head. He has good top control and brutal ground & pound. He has put people to sleep with ground & pound punches. He will move to dominant positions such as mount & usually will finish the fight if he can get there. He was finished via triangle by Paul Craig with one second left in a fight he was dominating. He seemed to panic & may be a quick tapper throughout his whole career. He has good takedown defense and will get double underhooks and will snap fighters down and control on top. He can get taken down, but he stays calm and does a good job of sweeping and getting top position or getting back to his feet. Ankalaev isn’t a submission fighter with zero career submissions. He has good cardio, fights composed and should have the technical advantage everywhere here.
Dalcha Lungiambula
Age: 34
Height: 5’10
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Team Champion
From: Congo
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 51
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: +325
Dalcha Lungiambula had a successful UFC debut knocking out Dequan Townsend. He has won 6 consecutive fights and is a physical specimen. Dalcha is a big, scary guy with one punch knockout power. He is extremely explosive & just an overall powerhouse. Champion Dalcha is more of a counter puncher, but his blitz attacks are extremely dangerous. He has a solid jab to the body & head. He will throw a jab, left hook & jab, uppercut combination. He has a devastating overhand right. He is extremely fast & closes the distance in the blink of an eye. He likes to circle & wait for his opponents to throw & time shots. He has a nasty, counter left hook & right uppercut. He will throw a right uppercut, left hook combo. He doesn’t throw a lot of straight shots. He is very wide with everything besides his jabs, which makes him vulnerable in the pocket. Fighters with faster, tighter punches can tag him as he winds up. It’s still always dangerous to be brawling with Dalcha. Even if you have him hurt, he will plant his feet & wing, and can knock opponents out with one punch. Champion Dalcha has 4 KO/TKO’s and has never been finished by strikes.
Dalcha looks like a well-rounded fighter & strong wrestler. His defensive wresting & game off his back looks a bit questionable, but his offensive wresting is solid. He is extremely explosive & will get big slam takedowns. He will shoot decent double legs. He is good at catching kicks & taking opponents down. He has nice clinch trips & throws also. His wrestling isn’t elite & fighters can stuff his takedowns. He has heavy hips & is good at reversing takedowns & getting top position. He isn’t super dangerous on top. He will throw some small ground & pound from guard. If he can get to a dominant position then he can close the show on the ground, but he’s not a big passer. He prefers to just stay in the guard & control opponents from there. Fighters are able to stand up from under him also & he doesn’t have the greatest top control. In his last match, he was able to control on top for large periods of the fight. He was controlling mostly from inside his opponent’s guard and landing nice elbows & punches. He can get taken down by body locks & well-timed shots against the cage. Off his back he doesn’t look very good. He doesn’t have good get-ups. In his one career loss he was submitted via rear naked choke. Dalcha has 2 career submissions.
Ankalaev is the more technical striker and grappler here. Dalcha is a powerhouse though and he could land a big KO shot or even land power takedowns and possibly win a decision from landing takedowns and GNP. I think the line is too high on this one, so this would be a dog or pass fight for me on the betting line. I do think Ankalaev is the better fighter and should get the win here, but 3 to 1 is way too steep for me with a guy who has the power that Dalcha does.
It is hard to pay all the way up for Ankalaev here when I like the guys priced under him almost as much. I think he is in play and can finish this fight and maybe even dominate it. I just don’t see him being a core guy for me and I might be underweight to the field. He does have a -110 ITD line but I think that could come later in the fight after Dalcha gets tired. Dalcha is in play for me because he is the cheapest guy and he has the power to end this fight in round 1 or even win the first round with power takedowns and taking away from the potential points Ankalaev could get in a win. I think this could end up being a popular fight, so I might take a lower weight approach to both sides.
Winner – Magomed Ankalaev via Unanimous Decision
Shamil Gamzatov $8,900 vs Klidson Abreu $7,300
Shamil Gamzatov
Age: 29
Height: 6’2
Weight: 185
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: AKA
From: Russia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 48
Last Fought: 1 Year 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W13
Betting Odds: -190
Shamil Gamzatov is making his UFC debut in his home country. Gamzatov hasn’t fought in over a year but is an undefeated prospect at 13-0. He hasn’t fought that high level of competition. He is someone who has been training in combat sports since he was a kid & is well rounded. He is an amateur MMA champion with grappling & kickboxing championships. He is another Dagestan guy who trains at AKA with Khabib. On the feet, Gamzatov is a mover & volume fighter. He is athletic & light on his feet, and feints well. The bulk of his offense comes from his head & leg kicks. He will use the jab & left hook to control distance along with nice inside, outside low kicks. He has a good frame for the division & fights long. He has nice round & front kicks to the body & head. When fighters can force Shamil to strike in the pocket, he is uncomfortable & will use wide, looping power shots to try to back opponents off. He isn’t the most technical in the pocket & is hittable there. He doesn’t control the center the best & I just don’t think he’s the most dangerous guy. Fighters can walk him down & land big shots inside. Gamzatov does have good footwork & is he’s easy to cut off. Gamzatov is most dangerous when he can back fighters to the fence. He will feint his way in well and throws more in combination. He will go body, head with punches & kicks. He has a nice front kick up the middle, and dangerous flying knees. Overall, Gamzatov has a point fighting style & is more risk adverse.
Shamil Gamzatov’s grappling is a little bit questionable. His offensive wrestling isn’t bad, and he shoots in on nice singles & doubles. When Shamil gets on top he doesn’t do much. He is a wet blanket & just goes body, head from inside the full guard. I have seen him swept & he doesn’t have the best top control. In a fight with Rodney Wallace which I thought Wallace won, he was taken down very easily & walked down. Wallace was able to land big singles & doubles and caught kicks well to get takedowns. When Wallace got top position, Gamzatov was able to control posture & avoid much damage but was controlled for large periods of the fight. Eddie Gordon was able to get a big double leg slam in round 2 of their fight.
Klidson Abreu
Age: 26
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185 (Debut)
Reach: 74”
Gym: Evolucao Thai MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 29
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +165
Klidson Abreu, the Russian Terror, will be looking to take out another Russian in Russia. Abreu is 3-1 vs Russians. Abreu is also a southpaw. He is a pretty good athlete & closes the distance well. Fighters definitely have to respect his power on the feet, but he has holes & is pretty predictable. At range he really only throws left kicks, left hooks & straight-left hands. He likes to back opponents up with forward pressure, and then close the distance with a left high kick, straight-left hand, or right hook, straight-left hand combination. He will level change after the combo with a double against the cage. Ankalaev, a recent opponent, was able to read that & countered with big uppercuts that badly broke Klidson’s nose. Klidson really only has success on the feet when an opponent is standing right in front of him or he backs them up towards the cage. If fighters can control the center, all entries are big, explosive actions that are easy to see coming. Abreu was able to land some explosive combinations on Sam Alvey, hurting him pretty badly. He holds his lead hand low and when he exits, he tends to pull back with his chin in the air. He has been TKO’d twice before. He has to be careful in the pocket in this match because Gamzatov has good pull counters. Abreu has 4 KO/TKO’s and hits hard.
Klidson Abreu’s grappling is definitely the most dangerous part of his game. He has 10 submissions in his 15 wins. He doesn’t have the greatest takedowns in space, but he will try to time double legs. He is good at catching kicks & getting it to the mat that way also. When he uses combinations to get in on doubles against the cage, he won’t try hard for it. Unless he can easily dump his opponents, he likes to come up into a body lock takedown. He will also try to circle to the side & get suplexes as well as take the back from standing position. Fighters have to be very careful in the clinch with him, because he’s very aggressive. He will lock up rear naked chokes with no hooks in and try to jump in front head locks. On top, he has fast transitions, and is a back packer. He has 5 rear naked choke wins. He will work from the mount also and has great balance. He will get a very high mount & look for armbars. Opponents have had some success taking him down, but he is active off his back with submissions & leg locks. He likes to use omaplatas & leg locks to sweep. He doesn’t have the best cardio, so he won’t be grinding for takedowns all night most likely, and if you can stop some early ones, they probably will come less often. In this fight, he needs to look to take it to the mat & if he gets on top I see him dominating & maybe getting the submission.
I think Abreu is going to need to get this fight to the mat to have a shot at winning. I think Shamil is the better striker and he looks like a decent enough grappler to be able to dictate where this fight takes place. I think Shamil catches Abreu at some point on the feet and puts him away here. I am not overly sold on him, but he does look like the better guy in this spot.
This is Shamil or pass for me. I think he is in play for the KO and if he can get it then he probably scores highly. If he can’t get the KO, then I don’t see him scoring highly and probably doesn’t even pay off his salary. I will have a couple shares of him, but I wouldn’t go overboard and if you are making 3 or less lineups I would probably just fade it. Abreu will be a fade for me because I don’t see him having much success with takedowns and he isn’t good enough or active enough on the feet even as a cheap underdog.
Winner – Shamil Gamzatov via 2nd round (T)KO
Ramazan Emeev $8,400 vs Anthony Rocco Martin $7,800
Ramazan Emeev
Age: 32
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 68.5”
Gym: Gorets FT
From: Russia
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 27
Last Fought: 1 Year 2 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -130
Ramazan Emeev has had a tough 2019. He has had two fights booked that were cancelled & this will be his first fight of the year. Emeev suffered an injury & then later had visa issues. Emeev is 3-0 overall in the UFC & getting a sizeable step up in competition. Emeev is a fighter who likes to fight at a deliberate pace. He likes to forward pressure, especially early, and maul opponents against the cage. He has clean hands. He is constantly faking, feinting & has good in & out movement. He has a very nice jab, heavy one-twos, and a nasty overhand right. He throws a lot of just one or two shot combinations & really just likes to pot shot opponents until he can get in on a body lock. Emeev will throw nice kicks as well to the body and head along with spinning kicks. Emeev is a very cool, calm, composed fighter. He is excellent at using his striking to back opponents up, land a straight or right hook & then move directly into the body lock. He is very physical in the clinch & that’s where I see him having the most success in this match. I think he will be the stronger fighter & may be able to slow down the fight by controlling against the cage & maybe sealing the rounds with late takedowns. Emeev is also excellent at landing shots off the break. He will land nasty hooks & straight punches off the break that can stun opponents. When fighters walk him down, he can pull back with his chin up & he seems susceptible to low kicks to me. He can be a bit uncomfortable when opponents can use intelligent, forward pressure. Emeev usually isn’t a knockout artist with just 3 career KO/TKO’s. He has been finished by strikes once in his career.
Ramazan Emeev is a strong grappler. He spends the large majority of his fights controlling opponents in the clinch. He has great body lock takedowns, and okay control in top position. His top game isn’t super dangerous. When he fought Alberto Mina, he wasn’t able to control him effectively due to his active guard & I feel he will struggle to control Rocco. Emeev does have nice kimuras. He will use them to defend takedown attempts, along with create scrambles if taken down. Emeev can be taken down himself but has good get-ups. His last opponent was able to get a couple takedowns on Emeev. Emeev has great cardio & composure & will be there for 3 hard rounds. Emeev has 7 career submissions & has been submitted one time. I think if he wins this fight It will likely be via decision.
Rocco Martin
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: ATT Atlanta
From: Massachussetts
UFC Record: 8-5
Fight Matrix: 20
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +110
Rocco Martin suffered his first loss at 170 lbs in the UFC his last fight vs Demian Maia. He is still 4-1 at WW & defeating Emeev would be a massive win. Martin is a long fighter, and always measuring opponents on the feet. He likes to stay at his distance and throw nice jabs and straight-right hands. He has super heavy low leg kicks, really hurting the lead leg of Jake Matthews & Sergio Moraes in his last two wins. I feel that could be a useful weapon for him here. His straight-right hand is accurate and fast, and he can catch fighters as they close the distance repeatedly. He has a nasty head kick and does a great job of noticing which side his opponents are slipping his right hand and following with a head kick. He likes to throw counter uppercuts when fighters crash the distance to try to make them hesitant to shoot. His distance control is awesome, and he is always reading and staying at his own range. He is a very measured fighter and he will very rarely get out of position or overextend himself. He likes to lean out of the way of shots and return with powerful one-twos, and his sharpness makes opponents go into a defensive shell. He only has the one career knockout, but he definitely is a dangerous striker. He has a great chin and a lot of confidence in it. He has never been finished with strikes.
Tony Martin is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and improving with his wrestling defense. He showed great clinch technique, digging strong double underhooks & pushing the much bigger Laflare to the cage and disengaging, but Maia was able to dominate him with grappling for two rounds. He has solid takedown defense against the cage, he will get very wide with his stance when fighters attempt doubles, and he will counter with a kimura lock. He has nice kimuras sweeps off his back also and finished Fabricio Camois with a kimura. Martin has a solid butterfly guard. He allows fighters to pressure pass and Maia was able to take the back. When Martin gets on top he is very strong he has good ground and pound and likes to stay heavy until he can take the back and get a rear naked choke. He has great back takes, and when he gets in top position he is hard to get-up from under on. He has great kimuras & key locks & is a submission specialist He will attack with darces and front chokes when opponents try to stand up. He did a great job of denying a takedown of Jake Matthews, quickly jumping on the back & transitioning to an anaconda choke that put him to sleep. Martin has been submitted twice himself and has 9 submissions himself.
I like Emeev in this spot. I think he is the better striker and he should be able to stuff most takedowns attempts and I think probably get back up if he is taken down. I do think Martin’s best path to victory is through the ground, but this is probably going to be a slower paced fight where neither guy is getting blown away. I think Emeev is just the better overall fighter and with it being in Russia I think even a close fight would favor him on the scorecards.
I don’t see this fight having much of a ceiling, so I think it will mostly be a fade for me. I like Emeev to get the win, but I don’t even see him getting 10x his salary here. Rocco Martin should be looking to grapple and will have an easier time paying off his salary in a win, I just don’t see him being low owned, so I would rather fade and get leverage elsewhere. With 10 lineups I probably have 0 of this fight. If you are picking Rocco to get the win then I would go overweight to him here, I just don’t see that being the case.
Winner – Ramazan Emeev via Unanimous Decision
Khadis Ibragimov $8,700 vs Ed Herman $7,500
Khadis Ibragimov
Age: 24
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 78.5”
Gym: Sambo-Piter
From: Russia
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 67
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -150
Khadis Ibragimov dropped the ball in his UFC debut. He was well on his way to victory over Da Un Jung but was totally inefficient with his cardio. He was throwing wild combinations full power with no regard for gassing out and was made to pay for it being finished in round 3. He is coming in here on short notice to take on an OG in Ed Herman. His striking is a little wild. He has power, but really just throws jabs & looping right hands to close the distance. He will throw one-twos. He also has a good chin & is willing to bang. He is still a good athlete though & the risk of the takedown makes opponents hesitant to let go. He will eventually get inside & get it where he wants it. His striking is not good though. It’s just wild, crazy hooks. He did beat up his last opponent on the feet mostly but started taking huge shots himself. He has two KO/TKO’s on the ground.
Ibragimov is an excellent grappler. He has nice single leg takedowns. He will use the single to push opponents to the cage & transition to doubles, along with circling to the back. He has very nice throws. When he circles to the back, along with looking for throws, he will look to get his arms around the neck. He will lock in rear naked chokes with no hooks & finish them like bulldog chokes. In top position, he is a beast also. He likes to get side control & finished his last opponent in the crucifix position. He likes to move to the mount, take the back & get rear naked chokes. He has 2 rear naked chokes & one bulldog choke. He has finished his last 5 wins.
Ed Herman
Age: 39
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: Team Quest
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 11-10-1
Fight Matrix: 38
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +130
Ed Herman will be looking for his first two fight win streak since 2012. He bounced back from 3 consecutive losses with a first round knockout of Patrick Cummins. Herman has been competing in the UFC since the Ultimate Fighter 3 and has seen it all. This will be the first time he’s fought overseas since 2008. Ed Herman is a grinder. He isn’t very technical with his striking, but he likes to throw a one-two and long, looping hooks. He throws mostly long, Russian casting type hooks. He will go body, head, and he keeps a decent amount of volume out there. He doesn’t have big power and overall range striking is the least dangerous part of his game. He is susceptible to getting caught with shorter, more technical shots because he loads up and is obvious with his shots. He has a solid chin, but he has been finished with strikes 3 times. Herman has 6 KO/TKO’s himself.
Ed Herman is strong in the clinch and has some nice, short uppercuts and knees to the head. He has good power in short range, showing that with his knee KO’s of Pat Cummings & Tim Boetsch in his last victories. He is a good wrestler and has solid takedown defense. He has 32 takedowns in his UFC career. On top, he has big elbows, and cuts his opponents up. He likes to get to the back and he has a nice rear naked choke. Off his back, he doesn’t have a great get-up or sweep game, but he is active. He has good armbars and will attack with leg locks as well. His takedown defense isn’t the greatest. He was taken down & dominated on the mat by C.B. Dolloway. Dolloway was able to keep him down when he took him down, and I feel if Ibragimov can get a couple takedowns, he will slow down Herman and have a high likelihood of winning. Herman does have 14 submissions, but none since 2012.
Ibragimov is taking this fight on a little over a weeks’ notice. He is fighting a tough vet in Herman who could finish him on the feet or the ground here, especially if he can tire him out. I just can’t pick Herman at 39 years old over a young prospect who I think should be the better fighter everywhere here and have more speed and power as well. This is more of a fade on Herman at this point, but I have to lean with Ibragimov here even on short notice.
This is one of the better fights on the card to target. It has a -300 FDGTD line and I think either guy could finish. If you want to go all-in on any fight, this would probably be the one for me. Ibragimov is my preferred play because I am fading Herman, but I could totally see Herman getting a finish here, so he is in play as well. I wouldn’t touch this fight in cash, but I think either pays off their salary in a win and this could be a 1st round finish either way. Load up on this one but I don’t see me being 100% personally.
Winner – Khadis Ibragimov via 1st round (T)KO
Zelim Imadaev $8,800 vs Danny Roberts $7,400
Zelim Imadaev
Age: 24
Height: 6”
Weight: 170
Reach: 76”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Russia
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 377
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -220
Zelim is a wild striker, with 8 KO’s in 8 wins. He is very dynamic & uses a lot of flying/spinning attacks, and kicks. In his UFC debut his propensity to rely on spinning attacks got him taken down many times. He is very aggressive & likes to try to intimidate his opponents. There will be no glove touching in this one. Imadaev has nice inside’ outside leg kicks, & big power in his punches. He throws a lot of wide hooks & jab, overhand rights or jab, right hooks. He has one punch knockout power in his left & right hook. He is open to be countered, but he trusts his chin & power & usually ends up hurting his opponents if they decide to exchange. He loads up on strikes & can be very obvious. Griffin was able to see his spinning attacks coming easily. He will throw a lot of flying knees to close the distance. He also does a good job of grabbing the head, pulling it down & jumping into a flying knee to try to finish his opponent. I have seen him taken down off the knee, but he is good at getting up & reversing to top position. He does a good job of feinting to create openings for spinning backfists & elbows. He can be pushed back & I feel fighters who can stay calm will be able to counter with tighter punches and hurt him. I haven’t seen him be put in much danger in fights. He has 8 KO/TKO’s, including a flying knee & spinning back elbow KO.
Zelim is not a wrestler even though he’s from Russia. He can be controlled against the fence & taken down. He will attack with good knees & elbows himself and does a decent job of framing on the head to get out of it. He can be taken down with body locks or when he gets too aggressive coming forward. Fighters can time takedowns off his knees or kicks. He was taken down off the spinning kicks he threw over & over vs Max Griffin. He is active on his back & immediately tries to create a scramble to get back to his feet or get into top position. He will dig a nice underhook from bottom in half guard to stand up. He is training at Xtreme Couture’s so I’m sure he’s trying to address that issue. Against Max Griffin, he didn’t show great ability to stand up off bottom against a competent grappler. On top, he is aggressive with G&P & will try to finish the fight. He has been put in a tight guillotine and armbar but stays composed and can eventually power out of them. Imadaev is going to want to keep this fight standing. He is still very young in his career & only has fought one way. He is going to be aggressive, wild and go for the finish from the opening bell.
Danny Roberts
Age: 32
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: Blackzillians
From: England
UFC Record: 5-4
Fight Matrix: 141
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +180
Danny Roberts is a good striker & crisp boxer. He likes to use lateral movement and walk opponents into his kicks and punches. He has a very nice jab, left straight combination with great accuracy and power. He will throw a check right hook if opponents are getting too aggressive. He will throw a jab, overhand right. He throws a left hook, right hook combination. He will throw the inside, outside leg kicks. He will throw front & round kicks to the body occasionally and has a nice head kick. He can get walked down and if he gets caught against the fence, he is there to be unloaded on. In his last match, he got enthralled with the craziness his opponent was throwing & got knocked out watching. He froze & needs to bounce back in a big way here. Roberts has 6 KO/TKO’s himself but has a questionable chin. He has been KO’d three times in his career.
Danny Roberts is not a bad grappler. He will look to get double underhooks & push fighters against the cage. He likes to go for singles against the cage. He has good body lock trips. He has heavy ground & pound and good scrambling ability. He has a solid rear naked choke. He was able to get a triangle choke against Nathan Coy. Early on in this match, he should try to get inside, clinch up & takedown Imadaev, in my opinion. I think he could potentially tire him out & even finish him with ground & pound. He showed some great submission defense in his last match. He was able to sweep a credentialed Jiu-Jitsu black belt & hurt him with G&P. I think Roberts is actually very underrated on the ground. He has 5 submissions & has been submitted twice.
Zelim is a dangerous, Russian prospect and he ended up losing a close majority decision in his UFC debut. Now they have him fighting on the main card in Russia. I think the UFC wants him to get a win here and think they will get it. Roberts is dangerous as well, but this fight should stay standing I and like Zelim’s striking game and power more. Roberts has also been knocked out 3 times, including a brutal one in his last match. I think there is a decent chance that happens again here.
I like both sides of this fight and but more so Zelim. I think he ends this fight with a KO and I like his price if he gets it early. I think Roberts is live here though and he has his moments where he looks great. I don’t see him being highly owned, so I think he is in play for a couple lineups. I will for sure get Zelim into lineups though and I might even start with him in a couple. I am not sure if he will be a core play, but he will be close to it.
Winner – Zelim Imadaev via 1st round (T)KO
Alexander Volkov $9,200 vs Greg Hardy $7,000
Alexander Volkov
Age: 31
Height: 6’7
Weight: 251
Reach: 81”
Gym: Strela Team
From: Russia
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: 9
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -265
Alexander Volkov will be fighting for the first time this year. He had to pull out of his fight with Overeem because of an injury and hasn’t fought since his match with Derrick Lewis. Alexander Volkov is a big, imposing fighter standing 6’7. He is a very solid striker, and pretty athletic for someone his size. He likes to walk down his opponents and keep them at the end of his strikes. Volkov has a great jab, and it’s stiff and powerful really busting his opponents up. He likes to close the distance with a one-two, and he has decent hooks and uppercuts in the pocket. His defense in the pocket is not great, and he is there to be hit when he closes the distance with punches. Sometimes fighters can come up short because of his length, but I think Hardy having an 80.5” reach could potentially cause him trouble. The best part of Volkov’s striking game is most definitely his kicks. He has hard, inside leg kicks, and a great front kick to the body. He will throw the front kick to the body with both legs, and he will occasionally bring the front kick with the left leg to the head. Volkov has nice step-in knees and he can be a real killer on the feet when he finds his range. He has been hurt with overhands before by Timothy Johnson in the UFC and getting knocked out horribly in his last fight by Lewis. He has only been KO/TKO’d two times in his career, but that last KO was very bad.
Volkov is not the greatest grappler, but he has steadily improved it, and was able to deny the majority of the takedown attempts of Fabricio Werdum in their match and was able to survive on the floor with him for a round. Volkov has good takedown defense in space, but if his opponents can push him against the cage, they have a better chance of finishing. Volkov was taken down with pretty easy single legs. Werdum was also able to take Volkov’s back. He does a good job of getting a wide stance and not letting opponents lock their hands together and eventually circling off the cage. If he gets taken down, he has a good guard and his long legs make it hard to pass. Werdum was unable to pass his guard or do any damage at all on top. Volkov doesn’t have submissions off his back and doesn’t have many overall with just 3 in his career. He doesn’t have a good get-up game, and if he gets taken down he usually will not get-up. On top, he has good ground & pound and knocked Werdum out cold their matchup. He needs to use his range, stick and move. He cannot get sloppy and wain into the pocket like he has in the past or he could get put to sleep.
Greg Hardy
Age: 31
Height: 6’5
Weight: 265
Reach: 80.5”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Florida
UFC Record: 2-1-1
Fight Matrix: 105
Last Fought: 3 Weeks
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: 1NC
Betting Odds: +225
Greg Hardy’s striking looked much improved in his last fight. He was using much more lateral movement & good head movement. He was slipping just out of the way of punches. Hardy has very fast hand speed. He had a nasty jab & left hook, and blazing one-two. He will throw some brutal low kicks & nasty uppercuts. Hardy’s straight-right hand vs Sosoli was a piston. He has nasty round kicks to the body. He was mixing in high kicks, superman punches, and I think he’s a very dangerous striker. He has one punch power and is extremely fast. Hardy will still lean back with his chin high at times, and I do feel the jab of Volkov could give Hardy issues. Hardy takes punches extremely well though & will barely even move back. Sosoli landed some bombs on Hardy that didn’t faze him & Sosoli hits hard. Hardy showed the ability to move for 3 rounds & didn’t slow down in his last fight. He did have the fiasco with the inhaler, but I really don’t think he was that tired. Hardy proved he can go three rounds in his last fight & still win all three rounds. He largely dominated Ben Sosoli. Hardy has 5 knockout wins.
Greg Hardy is not looking to grapple. I don’t expect Hardy to shoot many takedowns in his UFC career. Hardy obviously is a great athlete with fast hips, good balance & base. When fighters shoot takedowns on him, he is good at sprawling & hammering punches into his opponent’s face. Hardy has a nice whizzer he will use to counter takedowns. Hardy has short range power & has put multiple fighters out with hammerfists & short punches as they try to get in on his legs or in the clinch. In his fight with Allen Crowder, he did get a knee caught, and taken down. Hardy didn’t look very knowledgeable off his back. He stayed calm but allowed Crowder to transition easily & even get the crucifix position. Hardy is very explosive & used his athleticism to buck out of bad positions but didn’t show great technique on bottom. Hardy had some time in top position in that fight as well. He was able to show good submission defense, pass the legs, and almost got to side control. He didn’t show good top control and allowed Crowder to belly down & get-up. In Hardy’s match with Juan Adams, he sprawled on a single leg and landed about 30 unanswered shots before the fight was stopped. Adams didn’t move at all & basically just gave him the win. I don’t think Hardy will have to worry about takedowns in this fight.
Hardy is finally getting a step up and it is a big one. I think Volkov is the better striker in this match and he could resort to his grappling as well and likely have a big edge on the ground. Volkov was knocked out in his last fight though and Hardy has big power. I think Hardy does have decent striking and could keep this fight close if it stays on the feet. I think it is likely KO or bust for him in Russia though. I like Volkov to get the win, but I wouldn’t hate a bet on Hardy by (T)KO if it is +300 or more.
These last two fights are tricky. I would be all-in if either was a 5-round fight, but with 3 rounds I don’t know how much to go when they will be the highest owned fights still and both could be low scoring decisions. I think Hardy is going to be one of the most popular dogs on the slate and I do want exposure for the early KO potential. I just think I would rather go overweight to Volkov here and underweight to Hardy. Hardy is KO or bust and Volkov could finish on the feet or the ground and even pay off his salary in a decision win. I also think the fade is in play and let the field soak up the ownership and hope Volkov wins a ~75-point decision.
Winner – Alexander Volkov via Unanimous Decision
Zabit Magomedsharipov $9,100 vs Calvin Kattar $7,100
Zabit Magomedsharipov
Age: 28
Height: 6’1
Weight: 145
Reach: 73”
Gym: Nick Catone’s MMA
From: Russia
UFC Record: 5-0
Fight Matrix: 8
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W13
Betting Odds: -300
Zabit Magomedsharipov is getting all the advantages for this fight. Not only has it been moved from Boston to Russia, it’s a 3 round main event. Calvin Kattar stated he & his team wanted 5 rounds, but Magomedsharipov declined on short notice. Zabit is obviously the golden goose here. He is 5-0 in the UFC & extremely dynamic. Zabit is a super dynamic, fun striker to watch, to go along with elite grappling skills. He is 6’1 with a 3” reach advantage in this fight & he is good at fighting long. Magomedsharipov has fantastic kicks, and many different ones in his arsenal. Zabit is also a very skilled puncher. He has a nasty jab & a very good overhand right, left hook combination. He will throw nice one-twos down the pipe. He has phenomenal distance control & always is ready to slip & rip. He will front an overhand right with a shoulder movement and spring right into beautiful spinning back kicks to the body. He will do the same to set up his spinning backfists in closer range. He is excellent at catching kicks, he will literally see an opponent’s kick coming and switch stances to give himself a better chance of catching it. Zabit will throw spinning back kicks to the head, sanchai kicks, kicks off the cage & is incredibly creative and dynamic. He tends to make fighters hesitant to throw because of his reach and countering ability. Zabit is going to be fighting long in this match, utilizing a lot of fakes, feints, long range kicks & frustrating Kattar. He is a cerebral fighter and won’t get drawn into a brawl. Magomedsharipov has never been finished by strikes in his career & rarely gets hit. He definitely possesses knockout power both in his hands & feet and has 7 career KO/TKO’s.
Zabit is an incredible grappler. I actually think his wrestling is better than his striking. His length gives him an incredible advantage in the clinch. He has amazing clinch takedowns and control once he gets ahold of fighters. He looks frail, but he is strong in grappling situations. He will use nice body locks to get trip takedowns. He is also very good at jumping on the back from standing position. He will grab a leg immediately with an overhook after getting his hooks in very similar to Khabib which completely neutralizes his opponents posture. When he gets a suplex from the back, he will hook his opponent’s leg as he gets it & move immediately into side control. He has tremendous guard passing. He is excellent at grape vining the legs in full guard and moving directly into side control. He has a nasty crucifix from there. When fighters try to scramble back to their feet, he is excellent at catching front chokes. He will attack with anacondas & darces and in my opinion Magomedsharipov has one of the best ground games in the UFC. His technicality, and just attention to detail is top notch. One of the only weaknesses we’ve seen from him is he can get too complacent in opponent’s guards. His two losses including his one amateur loss are both via armbar. Zabit was able to get a nasty knee bar submission in the UFC & is very diverse with his submission game. If he gets on top of Kattar he could easily find a submission. He has 7 career submissions including 3 in the UFC. Zabit has questionable cardio & slows down in round 3.
Calvin Kattar
Age: 31
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 72”
Gym: Lauzon MMA
From: Massachussetts
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: 10
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +250
Calvin Kattar has a chip on his shoulder coming into this matchup. The UFC has made it clear who they are catering to in this matchup, and Calvin has to go & spoil the show. Calvin Kattar has looked like a beast himself with a 4-1 UFC record. He has undoubtedly fought the higher-level competition & holds victories over Ricardo Lamas, Shane Burgos & Andre Fili. Kattar is an extremely sharp boxer. He maintains range extremely well with his punches. He has a nasty jab, one of the best jabs in the UFC. He will double & triple up on the jab and has a great one-two. He has a nice jab, overhand right and a sick left hook. He has a very nice rear uppercut. He will explode into range with quick hook & uppercut combinations. He will rip the body with hooks as well. He will pull counter with his punches very well and is very accurate. When he can find his range, he puts his punches together very well, and puts opponent’s lights outs. He doesn’t throw many kicks, but he will throw the occasional leg kick, and has nice front kicks. He will go to the body & head with them. He has good footwork & is hard to hit. In his fight with Moicano, he struggled with Moicano’s kicks & distance. Kattar is heavy on his lead leg & had it chewed up in that match. Moicano was able to push him back by countering Kattar’s jabs with combinations. Kattar is dangerous & has 8 KO/TKO’s, including 2 in the UFC. He is very durable & has never been finished by strikes in his career.
Kattar isn’t a very active grappler, and definitely prefers to box. He doesn’t look to clinch very much, but he will occasionally use well timed takedowns. He has a solid blast double leg and will use it to break the rhythm of a fight. He will shoot when he gets opponents backed against the cage. He isn’t overly dangerous in top position, and I highly doubt he will want to takedown Zabit. Kattar has very good distance control & footwork, making it hard to get in on his legs to begin with. His takedown defense is actually very good. He will attack with a front choke to counter takedowns and snap opponents down. He was able to use it to take top position vs Andre Fili. He has fast hips & a nice sprawl. He was taken down by Chris Fishgold one time, but quickly jumped back to his feet. Kattar’s lone finish loss came via submission. Kattar only has 3 submission victories & it would be shocking to see him get one here.
I think Zabit has the better striking, defense, and grappling in this match. Kattar is very good though and he is going to be just as active on the feet as Zabit here and I don’t expect him to get blown out. However, even in a close match I expect the judges to lean Zabit, especially with these fights in Russia. Zabit is my pick to win a decision here and I think it would be smart of him to use his grappling in this match. -300 is too high for me to lay though and the value might even be on Kattar at this number. This is only a 3 round main event, but I will take Zabit to win 29-28 here and I expect a fun fight.
This is similar to the last fight. Both guys are very in play and could for sure pay off their salaries. They are just both going to be highly owned and I am not sure if we should be going overweight here with it only being 3-rounds. I prefer Zabit for his grappling potential and we have seen the ceiling he can have in just 3-rounds. I think this is his toughest test yet though and it wouldn’t shock me if he scored ~80 in a win. I don’t think that would do it and if he is 40%+ owned then we would be better off fading him. Kattar is a fine punt in all formats and a live dog here. I just don’t see him getting the win in Russia, so it makes me want to go underweight because he will be over 20% owned here. This is a tricky card and I wouldn’t invest heavily into it. I do think this is a main event we could fade though, and I will look to do that in a number of lineups. I still prefer Zabit though and he will for sure make my player pool.
Winner – Zabit Magomedsharipov via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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