BigMarley3's UFC 244 DraftKings Breakdown

BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown

 

Event – UFC 244                                              Location – New York City, New York

 

This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in NYC. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k goes to 1^st place with a total of $150k being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw a handful of entries at that $30k prize. Typically, I stay around 20 lineups each week and go after that big GPP and then max the $4 20-entry max GPP as well. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.

 

A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.

 

With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:

 

Hakeem Dawodu $8,600 vs Julio Arce $7,600

Hakeem Dawodu

Age: 28

Height: 5’8

Weight: 145

Reach: 72”

Gym: Champions Creed Martial Arts

From: Canada

UFC Record: 3-1

Fight Matrix: 102

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W3

Betting Odds: -135

 

Hakeem Dawodu will be getting a step up in competition after winning 3 fights in a row vs lower level UFC guys. Dawodu will be taking on fellow prospect Julio Arce. This is Dawodu’s third consecutive PPV spot & the UFC may be pinpointing him as a future seller for that Canadian market. He is facing Arce in Arce’s home state for this match up though. Hakeem Dawodu is a very athletic, explosive striker. Dawodu has a nice jab. He has a good one-two & jab, right hook. He will wear opponents out with hard body shots. He will throw hard front & round kicks to the body. He does a great job of attacking with hooks to the body. He will throw hard leg kicks inside and outside throughout the fight. He has big power in his kicks and was eating up the legs of Austin Arnett in a recent fight. He is flat footed and doesn’t move his head off center line when he throws hooks, making him susceptible to straight punch counters. He likes to use a lot of hooks, uppercuts, and wide punches in the pocket as opposed to straight shots. He will admire his work a little bit after he lands. His chin to me is a bit questionable to me, but he’s never been finished with strikes. He has an edge when he gets hit, he will counter back hard & back opponents off. He has 6 KO/TKO’s in 9 wins.

Dawodu is a strong athlete, and a good grappler. He is strong in the clinch landing hard knees, and short punches to the body. He has explosive double leg takedowns and good body locks. On top, he isn’t great, he has decent ground & pound but is still green on the ground. He has great takedown defense and is very explosive and hard to hold down. I don’t see him looking for any takedowns in this fight. He has great cardio and comes in good shape for every fight. Dawodu is going to be looking to walk Arce down, cut the cage off & use leg kicks to setup combinations. I think he has the tighter hands in close range & could potentially bully Arce to a victory.

 

Julio Arce

Age: 30

Height: 5’7

Weight: 145

Reach: 70.5”

Gym: Tiger Schulmann’s MMA

From: New Jersey

UFC Record: 3-1

Fight Matrix: 78

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +115

 

Julio Arce bounced back from his loss to Sheymon Moraes with a nasty head kick knockout of Julian Erosa. Arce is also 3-1 in his UFC career. Arce has finished two of his wins & has beaten the bigger name fighters but comes in to this fight as the underdog. Arce is a technical southpaw striker. He is a very good boxer & former golden gloves boxing champion. Arce has a great jab. He will double & triple jab into range. Arce likes to use the left hook as well. Arce likes to use his lead hand to get opponents to throw where he can pull counter. He has a nice jab, right hook combination. Arce will go body, head with combinations. He will throw straight punch blitzes, and flurry with uppercuts & hooks when he gets inside. Arce is comfortable in the pocket and slips and rips well. When Arce goes forward, he has good flowy movement, and creates angles for his strikes well. He will mix in head kicks mid combination. Arce has nice front kicks to the body. Arce doesn’t move his head when he blitzes forward, and Sheymon Moraes was able to time him & meet him in the middle when Arce threw with straight punches which dropped him. Arce also can allow fighters to control range & get backed up towards the cage. Julian Erosa was able to back him up continuously & make it a close fight before getting knocked out. Arce landed a nasty head kick in round 3. Arce is willing to take a ton of punishment & keep coming. He listens to his corner well & can adjust in fights as well. Arce isn’t a big power puncher. He has 4 KO/TKO’s. Arce has never been finished by strikes.

Julio Arce is a strong grappler. Arce likes to dirty box in the single collar. He Is good at getting in on body locks, and driving his opponent to the mat, or circling to the back. He will quickly jump on the back from standing position. He digs underhooks well, controlling opponents against the cage while looking for trips. In his match with Sheymon Moraes, he did get hit with some nasty elbows inside the clinch. He was cut open horribly and bleeding like a stuffed pig, but it didn’t deter him at all. Arce doesn’t attack the legs with takedowns. Arce is always looking to take the back when he brings it to the mat. He has 5 rear naked choke victories. In this fight I’m not sure he will be physical enough to tie up & get his positions on Dawodu. I do think he should look to grapple in this matchup & mix it up. Arce has excellent takedown defense, but I doubt he will use it in this match. He has been submitted one-time via guillotine. Arce has great cardio & heart. He will never quit or slowdown in there and can pick it up in the third round.

 

This should be a 15-minute striking match. I think it will be a close fight where both guys have their moments and think it’s hard to be confident on either side. I have been more impressed with what I have seen from Dawodu though and I think he is more dangerous as well. I think the line looks right on this one and I will take Dawodu to win a 29-28 decision.

This isn’t one of my favorite fights to target on DK. We have a -205 FGTD line here and neither guy is going to look to have a heavy wrestling-based game plan. We are going to be relying on significant strikes and the win bonus for our points here and I just don’t see this being on the $30k lineup. Dawodu ITD is +410 as the favorite and Arce is +380 ITD as the underdog. I think that makes Arce the preferred play here, but I don’t really want to target him much. If anything, I probably only have these guys in maybe 1 lineup out of my 20 or less. If I was making 150, I would get maybe 5-10% of each guy. I do think Dawodu could be a low owned target for the big GPPs I just don’t see him having but upside here and I would rather look elsewhere overall. I think Arce is a fine cash game play if you want to go there for his floor but Dawodu would be GPP only for me.

Winner –  Hakeem Dawodu via Unanimous Decision

 

Lyman Good $8,400 vs Chance Rencountre $7,800

Lyman Good

Age: 34

Height: 6’0

Weight: 170

Reach: 73”

Gym: Tiger Schulmann’s MMA

From: New York

UFC Record: 2-2

Fight Matrix: 66

Last Fought: 9 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -125

 

Lyman Good is looking for his first win in 2019. He had a very bad showing in his fight in February, getting submitted extremely quickly by Demian Maia. Good isn’t very active & this is the first time he is fighting more than once in a calendar year since 2015. If he wants any hope of making a run towards the top fifteen the time is now. Lyman Good is a kickboxer with boxing skills. Like his other Tiger Schulmann’s teaMMAte Julio Arce, he has a great jab. Good is a forward pressure fighter who uses the jab to back opponents up & force them in the pocket with their backs near the cage. He will land some one-twos. Good will also land nice overhand & straight-right leads. Good is very good at slipping shots & coming back with the left hook. He will follow the left hook with a straight-right hand or right hook. Good is flat footed when he strikes & needs fighters to trade in the pocket with him to be successful. If fighters throw long punches & move or kick & move, Good doesn’t throw much volume. He will just get hit, reset and try to walk forward into the pocket again. Good will exchange in the pocket with hook & uppercut combinations & has power. Good also likes to grab the single collar clinch & dirty box. When opponents try to grab the Thai plum on him, he will unload with combinations. He will dig to the body with big hooks and come up with big uppercuts. Good was able to knockout Ben Saunders with uppercuts in the clinch. When he fought Zaleski Dos Santos, he became a little timid due to the power. He continued to punch himself after he was hit to try to pump himself up and told his corner he didn’t want to get knocked out. I don’t think Good has that dog in him & will possibly quit if pushed hard. Lyman will throw some occasional round kicks to the body and head, but almost is exclusively a boxer. Good’s defense on the feet isn’t the greatest. He doesn’t move his head at times as he enters inside and is susceptible to leg kicks & body shots. He does have good durability, having never been finished in his career via strikes. Good has 10 career knockouts.

Lyman Good is not a grappler. He is someone who wants to use their takedown defense & get-ups to keep it standing unless he’s getting beat up. Good does have decent singles & double leg takedowns himself. In top position, Good likes to take the back & get rear naked chokes. He gets the hooks in & has good control. I don’t think Lyman can take down a wrestler the level of Rencountre though. Good’s striking style does make it pretty easy to get ahold of him in the clinch. Good lets fighters in on the single leg pretty easily. He has good balance, but opponents are able to push him to the cage & try to chain wrestle. Demian Maia was able to take him down within 30 seconds of the first round. Good does have solid get-ups. He is good at using butterfly hooks & stuffing the head to try to create space, get his back on the cage & stand up. He was able to stand up this way vs Demian Maia, but in doing so he gave his back, and Maia quickly jumped on it from standing position. He locked in the choke shortly after & closed the show. That was the first time Lyman Good has gotten finished in his career. Good has 3 rear naked choke submissions himself. Lyman Good has shown good cardio in his 3 & 5 round fights. This fight is all about range for Lyman Good. He has to cut Rencountre off, pressure him & force him to box where Good will have the cleaner hands. He can’t allow Rencountre to touch & move until he times the takedown.

 

Chance Rencountre

Age: 32

Height: 6’2

Weight: 170

Reach: 74”

Gym: Alliance MMA

From: Oklahoma

UFC Record: 2-1

Fight Matrix: 49

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: +105

 

Chance Rencountre will be looking for his third win of the year. He has won two consecutive fights after losing his UFC debut to Belal MuhaMMAd. Rencountre entered as a massive underdog to Ismail Naurdiev & I actually called Rencountre to win that matchup. Rencountre enters the underdog again in this fight. Rencountre is a southpaw who likes to fight long on the feet. He has good lateral movement, fakes and feints. He has a very nice straight-left hand. He has a pretty good jab. He will throw a good check right hook, and a right hook, straight-left hand combination. He will throw occasional nice leg & body kicks. He will finish combinations with leg kicks. He will throw rear leg front kicks to the body & head. He is light on his feet but has a hands down style & is hittable. In the pocket, he doesn’t have elite speed & faster fighters can beat him to the punch or kick. Ismail Naurdiev was able to light him up a bit in exchanges. After Rencountre established his wrestling, he was able to go forward & land some shots on Naurdiev in round 3. He was feinting the takedowns and throwing nice straight-left hands which backed Ismail up. With Chance training at Alliance it should help him clean up his defense. Rencountre will take a shot to give one & has elite durability. He’s never been finished by strikes & is willing to keep on coming & take a lot of punishment to win. Rencountre has 6 career KO/TKO’s, most due to ground & pound.

Chance Rencountre is a very good wrestler/grappler. He is a former college wrestler and has mixed submissions into his game. He has great timing on his shots. Rencountre has an excellent single leg takedown. He does a good job of feinting the jab or right hook & ducking under for the single. He will also catch kicks & get takedowns. He has a good blast double as well. In his last match, he was able to get some very nice body lock takedowns. In top position, Rencountre has excellent control. He is very good at lacing the legs when he takes opponents down to make it harder for them to stand up & passes well. He likes to stay heavy in half guard, land punches & elbows, and force his opponents to make a mistake. If they give him the mount or the back, he will quickly take it. His control on the back is incredible. He will get his hooks in and is excellent at flattening opponents out. He looks very heavy in that position. He was almost able to finish Naurdiev in this position multiple times. He will lock in the rear naked chokes also, having two in his career. Rencountre also is good from the front head lock position. He usually will use choke attempts to keep top position but does have a darce on his record. He can lock up the darce from half guard also. Chance was able to put Ismail down in every round of their fight. When he did get the takedown, Naurdiev was never able to stand back up until late in round 3. Chance Rencountre did get taken down with some beautiful double legs against Belal MuhaMMAd. Rencountre doesn’t accept being on his back & quickly works to scramble back up. He is hard to hold down, but he gives his back to stand up, and MuhaMMAd was able to take the back & ride out the round. Chance Rencountre has 3 submissions & has never been submitted. Rencountre has amazing cardio & will not get tired.

 

Good is going to the better striker in this match and if he can keep it standing then I think he probably would get a KO at some point. Rencountre should be looking to grapple here though and he won’t have much to worry about with Good laying on the mat. I like what we have seen from Rencountre lately though and I am going to take him to get a grappling-based decision win.

This is a decent fight to target on both sides IMO. My preferred play is going to be Rencountre because he is an underdog I think can get a win. If he does win, it will be through a grappling-based game plan and maybe even a submission. At his price I think he is playable in all formats here. I don’t think he has 100+ upside but we don’t really need that at his price. He is a guy I am going to look to get into lineups and maybe even 20-30% of my lineups. I think Good is in play for GPPs because he should have a big edge on the feet and he has the power to knock Rencountre out. I don’t think Good gets a lot of ownership this week, so I think he is in play for that KO potential at sub 20% ownership. I will have both of these guys in my 20 team or less player pool, but I wouldn’t go as far as to put either as a core play and neither is a must play at all.

Winner – Chance Rencountre via Unanimous Decision

 

Katlyn Chookagian $8,900 vs Jennifer Maia $7,300

Katlyn Chookagian

Age: 30

Height: 5’9

Weight: 125

Reach: 66”

Gym: Nick Catone’s MMA

From: New Jersey

UFC Record: 5-2

Fight Matrix: 2

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: -155

 

Katlyn Chookagian got back in the win column following a split decision loss in her title eliminator fight. Chookagian was likely the next challenger for the title but took time off for a wedding & was passed over by Liz Carmouche. This is likely another number one contender fight. Chookagian is a good striker, with a point fighting style. She has a nice jab, and she will double and triple up on it. She will follow the jab up with a straight-right hand, leg kick combination, and has very fluid kicks with her lead leg. She has nice a nice front kick, and sidekick to the body, along with a fast-high kick. She will throw question mark kicks and hook kicks as well with her lead leg. She has good overhand lefts and rights in close range and will sit down and throw with power. She has a nice left hook, straight-right hand to the body. She will throw hooks to the body also and has nice rear uppercuts. She is good at catching kicks, returning with shots and she is good defensively. She has good footwork and lateral movement and keeps a high volume of shots out there. Her left knee and high kick are her most dangerous attacks, she dropped Liz Carmouche with a head kick. In this fight, she is going to have the faster feet & an opponent who doesn’t have great head movement. If she can find her range early, it could be a hard night for Maia in terms of getting past the reach of Katlyn. She has two knockouts in her career, and never been finished.

Chookagian is a Renzo Gracie brown belt, and well versed on the mat. She has good duck unders for double legs and is strong in the clinch with knees. She is good at landing hard knees to the body and disengaging when fighters try to clinch with her, and she has good takedown defense.  When she does get taken down, she will attack with triangles and armbars and has a decent get-up game. She does have two submissions in her career with one being an armbar. Her armbars look very fast & she sets them up well. On top, she has good control, and will win rounds through top position. In this fight, I do see Chookagian looking to get it to the mat if it’s close on the feet. I think this fight really is going to come down to distance control though. If Chookagian can use her superior footwork to land her jabs, straight punches & kicks to keep Maia on the outside, she will likely win the fight.

 

Jennifer Maia

Age: 31

Height: 5’4

Weight: 125

Reach: 64”

Gym: Chute Boxe Monstro

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 2-1

Fight Matrix: 4

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: +135

 

Jennifer Maia is riding a two-fight win streak. Maia has won 8 of 9 fights & may be looking at a title shot with a victory here. Maia is a come forward striker, who has that heavy Muay Thai Chute Boxe style. She has an active jab. She will throw a one-two combination, or a jab, overhand right combination. She will throw a one-two to a left hook combination. She will mix uppercuts into close range. She is good at slipping punches & countering usually with her straight or overhand right. She will throw occasional leg & body kicks. She will attack the body with nice jabs & right hooks. She doesn’t throw a lot of variation & really her right hand is her bread & butter. She is at her best when she finds her range, goes forward & lets her right hand go. She can land her straight or overhand right over & over and it’s very accurate. When she’s able to stun fighters, she will swarm with combinations, but overall, she doesn’t throw a ton of volume. She is flat footed & doesn’t move her head much. She can get hit clean with shots. Modafferi had some success with straight punches in their matchup. She tends to start slow & pick up as fights go on. She doesn’t have much power & only has 3 KO/TKO’s in her career. She has been knocked out only one time & is a tough girl. I do feel her chin isn’t the greatest, she was rocked by a jab by Aga Niedzweidz in a recent Invicta fight.

Maia is a solid grappler. She has good clinch control & will land hard knees to the legs & body. She digs nice double underhooks & will slow the pace of the fight by controlling fighters against the cage. She isn’t a wrestler, but she has good takedown defense. She has a strong sprawl and will use it to take top position herself. When she does get taken down, she has good get-ups. She will attack in her guard with armbars. In top position, she isn’t super dangerous with ground & pound. She has 5 career submissions. She has only been submitted one time & is someone who will go to sleep rather than tap.

 

I think this will be a close striking match and similar to Chookagian’s other fights. Maia should look to close the distance and Chookagian is going to dance around the cage and throw a lot of volume but only land ~30% of those shots. The volume does seem to fool judges though even if they don’t land and I think this will be a split decision where we might think Maia deserves the win, but the judges give it to Chookagian. I think the best bet here is that the fight goes to decision because I don’t see either getting a finish.

I have zero interest in Chookagian at this price. If I was making 150 lineups I would have zero of her. I don’t really have a lot of interest in Maia here, but she is playable for cash and maybe even an OK low owned GPP play. I don’t think she has much upside here, but she could get a win, and nobody will be on her. I think she has a solid floor with 3 rounds of sig strikes to work with so if you want to punt with her in cash games I think that is fine.

Winner – Katlyn Chookagian via Split Decision

 

Jairzinho Rozenstruik $8,700 vs Andrei Arlovski $7,500

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Age: 31

Height: 6’4

Weight: 246

Reach: 78”

Gym: Team Bigi Boy

From: Suriname

UFC Record: 2-0

Fight Matrix: 50

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W8

Betting Odds: -150

 

Jairzinho Rozenstruik is getting the Arlovski test after defeating Allen Crowder in just 9 seconds. The UFC seems to love feeding Arlovski to their young prospects & seeing if they are ready for top 10 competition. Most fighters have been able to get over on Arlovski even if it was controversial. Jairzinho is an undefeated knockout artist. He has many knockouts as a pro kickboxer and finished 6 of his 7 wins by KO including 5 in round one. Jairzinho has good stand up. He has heavy inside, outside leg kicks & a great jab. He has good power in his hands. He will throw a jab, right hook, or a jab, overhand right combination. He has a powerful, counter left hook. He has a nice uppercut, left hook.  He is fleet of foot for a big man and can close distance quickly. He will throw occasional head kicks & flying knees. He will throw front kicks to the face also.  Jairzinho likes to throw jab or straight-right hands to head kick combinations. He is very explosive in close range & will let his hands go. Jairzinho can allow opponents to control the center, and back himself towards the cage. He will look to stand stationary & try to catch opponents with left hooks or uppercuts as they come inside. Jairzinho landed a left hook, right uppercut to a head kick combination that put Junior Albini out in his UFC debut. He followed that up dropping Crowder with a jab and finishing him with viscous ground & pound. Jairzinho has 6 knockouts in 7 wins and has never been finished by strikes.

Rozenstruik’s grappling is questionable. His takedown defense is not good. He was taken down multiple times in round one by Junior Albini. Albini was able to land a single & body lock takedown. Albini was able to pass his guard into side control. He attacked with a kimura & even took the back. Jairzinho was able to turn in & take top position when Albini took his back. Against Kovalev he was taken down in round 2 with a double leg & couldn’t get-up. Kovalev was able to land the takedown directly into side control. Kovalev was able to land some nice elbows & knees to the body. He did deny Kovalev from taking the mount, but he couldn’t stand up. He was controlled the entirety of the round. In round 3 though, he was able to deny a takedown attempt, and land a body lock of his own. Jairzinho looked heavy in top position, postured and rained down some big elbows. Jairzinho Rozenstruik allows fighters to clinch up with him against the cage far too easily. He puts himself there by himself & Junior Albini was able to put him against the cage with double underhooks several times. He can be too worried about takedown defense after he’s taken down, and not let his hands go.

 

Andrei Arlovski

Age: 40

Height: 6’3

Weight: 246

Reach: 77”

Gym: American Top Team

From: Belarus

UFC Record: 17-12-1

Fight Matrix: 31

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 1-3-1

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +130

 

Andrei Arlovski bounced back in a big way his last time out, dominating Ben Rothwell. Arlovski set the HW record for significant strikes landed in a three-round fight and put it on Rothwell. Arlovski is used to being the fighter to test the young up & comers, and he hasn’t been an easy out. His last three losses to up & coming opponents were from Tai Tuivasa, Walt Harris & Augusto Sakai, the decisions could have gone either way. The Augusto Sakai fight in my opinion, was one of the bigger robberies of the year. Arlovski has still been very competitive even if he’s picking up the losses, but he’s hungry for his first two fight win streak since early 2018. Arlovski still is a good striker. He has a solid jab, and nice leg kicks. He will throw oblique kicks to the legs as well. He has a nice straight & right hook lead. He will throw a right hook, left uppercut, right hook combination. He has nice spinning backfists. He has solid round kicks to the body & head. He was throwing spinning back & hook kicks to the body & head in his last match.  He had a clear speed advantage over Ben Rothwell & took advantage of it. Arlovski worked off the jab to create combinations and was even able to mix in a lot of spinning attacks. He was able to back Rothwell up with the jab, and I think he has to do that in this matchup also. He was able to stun Rothwell multiple times but couldn’t put him away. Arlovski doesn’t have the same finishing ability he used to have & is much less risky in his fights. Due to this, he hasn’t been knocked out himself, but he doesn’t get many finishes either. He hasn’t gotten a knockout since 2015. Arlovski’s last 8 fights have hit the scorecards. Arlovski does have 17 career knockouts. His durability is kind of a mystery. It seemed as if his chin had gone completely, but in recent fights he has ate bombs with no issues. He has only been finished by strikes 3 times since 2011, and once over the last 3 years. He has been finished 11 times by KO/TKO.

Andrei Arlovski is going to be the better grappler in this contest. Since joining American Top Team, Arlovski has implemented more of a clinch game into his arsenal. When opponents get aggressive, he likes to tie them up in the single collar clinch & push them to the fence. He will dirty box from there & can slow down the fight through his cage control. In the clinch, Arlovski has a very nice sacrifice throw he uses along with trip & body lock takedowns. I do feel if he can get into a body lock or trip position vs Rozenstruik, he will take him down. Arlovski hasn’t shown the best top control in recent fights, but it has been against much more polished opponents on the ground. If he is able to take down Jairzinho, I am not sure how much damage he can do but I do see him controlling on top. Arlovski needs to mix in takedowns or even attempts to make Jairzinho gun shy. Rozenstruik has shown in the past you can get him thinking if you take him down, and he doesn’t throw as much. If Arlovski can work takedowns or clinch control, I think it will help open up his striking as well. Arlovski isn’t going to be a big submission threat. I think when he gets takedowns, he should just worry about control because Jairzinho is big & explosive & you don’t want him to sweep you or explode back to his feet. When Arlovski gets takedowns, he needs to have some control time in order to recover his cardio. Arlovski has just 3 career submissions with the last one coming in 2005. He has been submitted one time by one of the best submission artists in HW history in Josh Barnett. Arlovski has gotten fatigued in previous fights, but in fights like the matchup he is in now he won’t get tired likely. He gets tired in fights where he is forced to defensive grapple. The only way I could see him tiring in this match is if he blows his load going for too many takedowns or can’t control on top and gasses from Jairzinho standing up quickly multiple times. If Arlovski can mix it up I see him having a good chance to win.

 

Rozenstruik is the better and more dangerous striker here, especially at this point in Arlovski’s career. If he can keep this at kickboxing distance, I think he wins and maybe gets a KO. Andrei should look to clinch and wrestle in this fight though and he should have a big edge if he can get it to the mat. I think Arlovski is very live in this spot, but he doesn’t look to wrestle enough for me to think he does it more here, so I will take Rozenstruik to outstrike him and get a TKO win.

This is another fight we can play both sides of but for GPPs only. Arlovski is in play because he is a live dog and he could look to grapple here. He is still a powerful HW and could get a KO, it’s just not as likely. I don’t see him having 100+ upside but he could get 10x in a win and maybe that does the trick if a lot of favorites come through. I would prefer to roster Rozenstruik though because he does have 100+ point upside here with an early KO. I don’t want to be too heavy on him, but I could see him making 25% or so of my lineups and if he can get the 1^st round KO at his price, then I think that puts him on the optimal lineup.

Winner – Jairzinho Rozenstruik via 1^st round (T)KO

 

Edmen Shahbazyan $8,300 vs Brad Tavares $7,900

Edmen Shahbazyan

Age: 21

Height: 6’2

Weight: 185

Reach: 74”

Gym: Glendale Fighting Club

From: California

UFC Record: 3-0

Fight Matrix: 41

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W10

Betting Odds: -145

 

Edmen Shahbazyan is getting a big test & step up after starting his UFC career 3-0. Shahbazyan did defeat Darren Stewart, but I would say Tavares is the next tier up. Tavares is a guy who has fought the who’s who of the MW division. Shahbazyan is just 21 years old & ran through his last two opponents very quickly. He has really only had one tough fight in his entire career which was vs Darren Stewart. Shahbazyan is big & physical for the division. He has finished all but one of his fights early in round one. He is coming off a quick submission of Jack Marshman. Shahbazyan has an excellent jab. He will throw double jab, left hooks. He has a very nice one-two & double jab, two. He has fast hand speed & will let go with heavy hooks & uppercuts in the pocket. He will try to overwhelm opponents early if he sees they feel his power & get them out of there early. He has finished 7 of his 10 opponents in under 1 minute & 30 seconds. He has heavy kicks, but he doesn’t throw them too often. He has good round & front kicks to the body & heavy rear leg head kicks. When he kicks, he can tend to float his chin out there with his hands low. He doesn’t have the best defense when he strikes & I would look to wrestle in this match. He stands tall & leaves his chin exposed. He doesn’t move his head & opponents who can eat his power or slip & counter can connect on him also. Darren Stewart was able to land some big shots in their fight especially when he had Shahbazyan’s back near the cage. He did show a good chin in that match, because Stewart can crack. He also showed composure when he was hurt & tired. He was able to tie Stewart up, and take him down to survive the 3rd round & seal the fight. Shahbazyan has 8 KO/TKO’s, all in round one.

Edmen Shahbazyan is a strong wrestler, showing that off against Darren Stewart. Stewart is known as a super strong fighter, but Shahbazyan was able to out muscle him in the clinch & take him down at will. He is good at landing his double jab a couple times to get respect then feinting it into a body lock, single or double leg. He has solid double legs in space, but he is best at getting takedowns against the fence. He has good chain wrestling against the cage. When he gets in on an opponent’s legs against the cage, he will transition from doubles to singles to body locks. He will come up into double underhooks then circle to the back & try to get takedowns there. He was able to takedown & take Stewart’s back a couple of times. Shahbazyan earned his first career submission in his last match vs Jack Marshman. Edmen still is very green and looked unsure of himself at times in round 3 vs Stewart.

 

Brad Tavares

Age: 31

Height: 6’1

Weight: 185

Reach: 74”

Gym: Xtreme Couture

From: Hawaii

UFC Record: 12-5

Fight Matrix: NR

Last Fought: 1 Year 4 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +125

 

Brad Tavares is stepping in here on short notice after a long layoff. He hasn’t fought in over a year due to injuries.  Tavares will be looking to rebound from his 5-round decision loss to Israel Adesanya. Adesanya was able to dominate Tavares with the striking & put a lot of damage on him. Tavares had injuries going into the Israel fight already, and hopefully he is 100% coming into this one. Tavares is a very skillful and technical striker.  Brad snaps off a great jab and has nasty leg kicks. He will double jab into range and throws a lot of one-twos & three twos. His left hook, straight-right hand is very nice. He likes to throw overhand right to a left hook to the body combination. Tavares is always feinting and faking, controlling distance and throwing a lot of volume to get off first and win a striking battle.  He uses a lot of lateral movement and his jab to gauge and control distance and pull fighters into his bigger shots. He has a very nice straight-right hand & excellent tight left hook inside. Tavares is good at getting off first and controlling when the exchanges happen. He has a solid flying knee he will throw. On the feet, he is always technical. He will have a high guard and good defense. He never really gets emotional and puts himself in harm’s way. He sometimes gets his hand back a little low on his jab and can get countered with hooks. He seems to be a bit stiffer if opponents force him to throw shots in the pocket. He is more comfortable hitting, moving and staying sharp. Israel Adesanya was able to target the body with kicks that hurt Tavares, as he uses a very high guard. Tavares is most susceptible to shots up the middle, like front kicks, straight punches, uppercuts & knees. Overall, he is very hard to hit, and constantly walking his opponents down. He attacks all parts of the body, and while having flashed power, is more of a decision fighter. Tavares has six KO/TKO’s, but just three in the UFC/Ultimate Fighter show.

Brad Tavares is not an offensive wrestler. He is strong in the clinch against the cage. He digs double underhooks well and has very good head positioning. He will work short shots from that position and slow down the fight. Tavares did shoot a couple single & double leg takedowns against Adesanya but was unsuccessful. He did get one takedown in the fight but didn’t do anything with it. In Tavares’s last ten fights, he has just five takedowns. Tavares likes to get the back mount when he takes top position. His top control isn’t the greatest. Tavares is going to look to keep it on the feet in this matchup in my opinion. His takedown defense is very good. He has a great sprawl, digging underhooks very well. He is excellent at disengaging with nasty right or left hooks. When opponents try to clinch with Tavares, he will let his hands go in combination to the body and head & disengage. He has a great switch if fighters get a takedown on him, he will use to reverse to top position. He is very good at using the hip ride to bounce right back to his feet. He will belly down into single legs to stand up from bottom & is hard to hold down. Tavares is hard to control & hasn’t been submitted since 2010. He has been submitted just one time by Court McGee on the Ultimate Fighter. Tavares has just two career submissions early in his career. Tavares shows good cardio in all his fights, and definitely has a major experience edge here. Tavares has spent almost 4 hours inside the UFC’s octagon & fought over 20 times for the promotion. He has been ranked inside the top 10 of the division & fought the likes of Yoel Romero, the current & former champ.

 

We have one of the new top prospects facing a solid vet here and I am looking forward to seeing how it plays out. I think Tavares is the better striker here but Edmen should be the one throwing more volume. I also think Edmen will be looking for takedowns in this fight and he could win close rounds by landing a takedown or two. I think Shahbazyan has more ways to win this fight and is more likely to finish as well. I am going to lean with the young prospect in this one, but this is his toughest match to date.

Shahbazyan is my preferred play here because of the ceiling we have seen from him. He is averaging 101.3 DK points in his 3 UFC wins and he has shown that he can rack up multiple takedowns. Tavares is hard to take down, but I think that is Edmen’s best path to victory here, so I do like him at $8.3k. I don’t really see him getting 100+ here but I do think he can get at least 10x with the possible 100-point upside. Tavares I am much less interested in, but I could see him making my pool for 1-2 lineups. He has never been a big DK scorer, but I don’t see him having much ownership at all and I do think Edmen will, so it is more of a big tourney GPP move and I wouldn’t touch him in a higher stakes game.

Winner – Edmen Shahbazyan via Unanimous Decision

 

Shane Burgos $9,300 vs Makwan Amirkhani $6,900

Shane Burgos

Age: 28

Height: 5’11

Weight: 145

Reach: 75.5”

Gym: Team Tiger Schulmann

From: New York

UFC Record: 5-1

Fight Matrix: 36

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: -245

 

Shane Burgos is a great prospect. He is a slick striker out of Team Tiger Schulman, with a lot of confidence. He has a nice jab, and a good overhand right. He keeps his hands low, but he has good head movement and will slip and return with counters. He does a good job of rolling with shots, but he was getting hit clean with straight punches and jabs in his match vs Calvin Kattar. He was also dropped in his last match vs Kurt Holobough. He has nasty hooks to the body, and his constant forward pressure wears his opponents down. He has decent inside leg kicks and front kicks to the body but doesn’t throw many kicks. He likes to counter with combinations in the pocket and he does a good job of making opponents pay for throwing punches. He has a very clean, lead uppercut. His cardio is fantastic, and he simply doesn’t get tired. He has shown a good chin throughout his career and relies on it with his style. He got knocked out for the first time in his career vs Kattar, and then dropped by Kurt Holobough, so hopefully it doesn’t become a recurring theme for him.

Burgos is not an offensive wrestler and won’t engage in the grappling much. He does a good job of reading level changes and lowering his level to defend them. He does a good job of limp legging out of singles or getting to the cage and circling out. When he hurts opponents, he likes to get on top and find the rear naked choke, but those were early in his career. In his last match, he was dropped, but immediately threw up an armbar and got a submission when his opponent went to follow up with G&P. He has 2 takedowns in his UFC career. He has been taken down just two times & he’s very hard to hold down.

 

Makwan Amirkhani

Age: 30

Height: 5’10

Weight: 145

Reach: 72”

Gym: SBG Ireland

From: Finland

UFC Record: 5-1

Fight Matrix: 39

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: +205

 

Amirkhani is not a very good striker. He is a southpaw. He will use a lot of lateral movement, jabs & right hooks, to just maintain distance before finding a takedown. He will throw a jab, left straight combination. He will throw front kicks to the body. When he throws shots, he leaves his chin right up in the air, and I definitely feel Burgos could land big shots over the top. He will use a lot of explosive action on the feet to close distance, like jumping kicks, and flying knees. He had a flying knee KO in less than 10 seconds in his UFC debut. His defense is porous. He will hold his hands low, has his chin high & backs up in straight lines. He will also do a lot of reaching to try to get into the clinch or on a leg, & if opponents have good distance control, they will make him pay for that. His takedown ability makes opponents hesitant to get close enough to him where he can shoot, and that’s how he survives. Amirkhani tries to goad opponents into a war, so they will get overaggressive & he can take them down as well. He doesn’t look like his punches pack much power, but he can finish with flying knees. Amirkhani just has one career TKO with a flying knee. He was rocked & dropped multiple times in his last match, but showed great recoverability, & has never been finished by strikes.

Amirkhani is an elite wrestler. He doesn’t strike much at all and will shoot takedowns very quickly into rounds. He has an excellent single leg takedown, and even if the initial entry isn’t great, he can stay connected & get it to the mat. He is very good at using the single leg to create a scramble & quickly take the back. He has good double legs as well, but his doubles can be a bit more telegraphed. He does tend to leave his head on the outside on takedown attempts and give opponents his neck. He has very good guillotine defense and will usually get free & have top position. He is excellent in scrambles and usually will always be able to defend the submission & get top position. On top, he is very heavy & has good control. He has great elbows from half guard, but mainly side control. He is great at standing up in opponent’s guards, landing a punch, and passing the legs into side control. He will land body locks directly into side control. He will look for front chokes, guillotines and has a good rear naked choke. He is active off his back as well, and better than Burgos there. He has a good guard & will attack with triangles & armbars. He is also good at sweeping to top position. Amirkhani is going to need to make this a grappling match. He has 10 submission victories & is crafty on the mat.

 

This is going to be a striker vs grappler match. I do like Burgos to stuff a lot of the takedowns though or be able to get back to his feet and I don’t think it will be close on the feet. If he can’t stuff takedowns, then Makwan probably wins with a wrestling-based game plan or a submission. I think Burgos either pieces him up for 3-rounds though or gets a TKO stoppage. I think the line looks about right for this one and I wouldn’t hate Burgos as a parlay piece.

This is a tricky one, but I think both guys end up making my player pool. With Burgos being the highest priced guy on the slate he is going to need 100+ here to be on the optimal. I think he has a huge advantage on the feet and could get an early KO which would put him on there. However, if he spends time against the cage or on the mat and doesn’t get the finish, I don’t see how he ends up on the optimal even if he manages to get 10x here. I think I like him more for cash games with one of the better lines on the slate, but I do want him in a few GPP lineups as well. Makwan is very interesting as the cheapest guy on the slate, because if he wins, it will be a grappling-based game plan and he could rack up multiple takedowns in every round or get a submission. I do think he is very in play here, in all formats really, but I don’t think he gets the win, so I don’t want to get too much of him. I think most of my lineups won’t have this fight in them, but I do want a couple shots on both guys and it will just depend if I have the money to pay up for Burgos or if I need to pay all the way down to get other expensive guys in my LUs. I won’t be starting lineups here.

Winner – Shane Burgos via 2^nd round (T)KO

 

Johnny Walker $9,000 vs Corey Anderson $7,200

Johnny Walker

Age: 27

Height: 6’5

Weight: 205

Reach: 82”

Gym: Gor MMA

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 3-0

Fight Matrix: 24

Last Fought: 8 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W9

Betting Odds: -165

 

Johnny Walker is a super dynamic striker. He is extremely athletic, and clearly improving rapidly. His movement & distance control is night and day from what it was a couple years ago. He has a very long karate stance & is light on his feet. He has an 82” reach and utilizes it very well. He will throw a lot of fakes, feints and is always giving his opponents different looks. He has very good head movement & is ready to counter immediately. He has a very nice straight & overhand right. He will throw a lot of oblique kicks to the knees & front kicks to the body. He will throw nice head kicks & follow with a quick straight-left hand, right hook. His head kicks are very fast & he is unusually athletic for someone his size. He is a very creative striker. He will throw axe kicks to the head, jump knees into superman punches or spinning backfists, and when he finds his range, will throw in combination. He can throw kicks without setting them up at times & be countered hard with straight punches. He can stand a bit tall at times & opponents can get inside on him but was much improved with that against Rountree. He finished his last fight in 36 seconds with a flying knee. We didn’t learn anything we didn’t know from this fight, but it was once again reaffirmed, this dude is dangerous. He has big power & is very explosive with 13 KO/TKO’s in his career. He has been finished twice by strikes.

Walker actually is not a bad grappler. He is extremely dangerous in the clinch. His frame allows him to get the Muay Thai plum much easier. He will throw nasty knees & elbows from clinch. He will throw a combination & then grab the Muay Thai plum & throw a jump knee. He will try to get the single collar position, trap the wrist quickly and come over the top with elbows. He has good takedown defense. He will use a heavy sprawl, and circle to the back. He will try to hit a switch when opponents take him down as well. He will attack with front chokes to defend takedowns also and will use the choke to move directly into mount. He will throw hard elbows to the head when opponents get in on his against the cage. His takedown defense is a little bit questionable in certain fights. If he misses on these big actions, he can be there to be taken down. He was taken down multiple times by a fighter who isn’t nearly the wrestler Corey Anderson is in Henríque da Silva. When he does get taken down, he has very dexterous legs & can use them to sweep extremely well. Against Anderson though, I feel that Anderson will be able to advance to dominant position if he cements position. Walker uses a lot of athleticism to escape positions instead of technique. I feel he could gas out being stuck on bottom also. On top, Walker is good. He distributes his weight well, can float and keep top position. He will slowly work to mount & the back. He doesn’t seem to have great submission technique, but he will attack with the chokes. When he hurts fighters, he will rain down brutal ground & pound. He does tire as the fight gets to the third round & I do feel that if Anderson can extend him & get him down, he may finish. Walker will never give up in positions on the ground & has incredible heart. He was dropped & hurt badly multiple times vs Wagner Prado, and on the ground was still moving and trying to survive. He even got dropped immediately, went in on a single leg and was using head movement, while he was in on the leg which was an interesting survival technique. Walker isn’t a big submission threat with two in his career & has been submitted one time by Jiu-Jitsu ace Klidson Farias. Walker is extremely confident right now, and in his element in the cage. I think Michael Bisping said it best in his fight with Justin Ledet, it looked like he was going on a “Sunday stroll”. He is so calm & loves to fight. Walker is going to want to keep this fight on the feet. Walker should throw a lot of front kicks to the body & straight punches, move in & out and get Corey desperate to close the distance. If he does close the distance, try to get in the Thai clinch land shots & get back to range.

 

Corey Anderson

Age: 30

Height: 6’3

Weight: 205

Reach: 79”

Gym: Nick Catone’s MMA

From: Illinois

UFC Record: 9-4

Fight Matrix: 8

Last Fought: 11 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W3

Betting Odds: +145

 

Corey Anderson has looked phenomenal recently, and has the skill set to be a future champion. He just has one glaring weakness, his chin. He has been rocked and finished many times, and if fighters can hit Anderson clean, he doesn’t take punishment well. This will be his first fight of 2019, after some disputes with the UFC & wanting a title shot. Anderson has a chip on his shoulder coming into this fight & wants to prove a point. Anderson has very good lateral & inside, outside movement. He has a great jab to the body & head. He has a good straight-right hand & overhand right. He has good head movement & will stay in the pocket and slip and return with counters. He has nice check left hooks in close range. He has very good fakes & false starts. He will fake level changes & land nasty uppercuts. He will throw good combinations such as overhand rights to left hooks, and left hooks to the body to an overhand right. He throws a ton of volume, and never lets his opponents rest or get comfortable. Anderson will throw nice leg & body kicks. He will throw jump knees when fighters try and take him down. Anderson doesn’t have big power and relies more on volume & wrestling. He has 4 KO/TKO’s in his career. He has a major chin problem & has been KO/TKO’d 3 times & dropped multiple times by Shogun.

Corey Anderson is a tremendous wrestler and has been absolutely dominating opponents in recent fights. He has landed 20 takedowns in his last three UFC fights. Anderson does a great job of ducking under and getting double legs. His long arms allow him to lock his hands easier and get nice slams. He has a strong drive on his doubles, and if he can’t take opponents down, he will drive them to the cage and work from there. He is very good in the clinch. He has good control and will land hard elbows and knees. He has good doubles & singles from that position as well. He does a great job of reshooting quickly if opponents deny the attempt and wearing them out. On top, he is very strong. He does a great job of getting to half guard, trapping an arm and throwing hard ground & pound. He forces fighters to give their backs, where he has great control, will flatten opponents out and land shots. He is great in the scrambles and will usually win & stay on top. He is extremely hard to hold down & does a good job of creating scrambles and wrestling positions. His cardio is elite, and he definitely will be the better conditioned athlete in this fight. I think if Anderson gets one takedown in this fight it could lead to a victory. Anderson has no submissions & is more about controlling & winning the fight via decision.

 

This fight is pretty simple. It’s a super powerful striker facing a great wrestler with a bad chin. Either Walker gets the KO, or he loses from being outwrestled. I think Anderson could even be winning for 24 minutes and lose with a last-minute KO. There is no point in this fight where I would feel confident he will win, but I do think this is a 50/50 fight and I am not buying into the Walker hype as much as others are. I am going to take Anderson to win a dominant wrestling heavy fight since he is the underdog. I don’t think I can risk a bet on this one though even with the “value” on Anderson.

This is basically an all-in fight for me. Except in cash games. Either Walker gets a KO or Anderson dominates him on the ground. Either way they both have 100+ point upside and I don’t see this fight not ending up on the optimal lineup. I think for that to happen we would need Anderson to dominate rounds 1 and 2 and then Walker get a 3^rd round KO. I just want to load up on this fight and I will probably be close to 50/50. I think Walker will be a very popular play this week so if I had to pick a side for 1 shot at the $30k I would go Anderson.

Winner – Corey Anderson via Unanimous Decision

 

Gregor Gillespie $9,100 vs Kevin Lee $7,100

Gregor Gillespie

Age: 32

Height: 5’9

Weight: 155

Reach: 71”

Gym: Bellmore Kickboxing

From: New York

UFC Record: 6-0

Fight Matrix: 16

Last Fought: 10 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W13

Betting Odds: -180

 

Gregor Gillespie is finally getting that step up in competition after a 6-0 start to his UFC career. If Gillespie can defeat Kevin Lee, he will jump right into the mix with the top guys. Gillespie striking at range is a little bit suspect, he is very hittable, but willing to take it & throws hard one-twos himself. He likes to throw a left hook, straight-right hand combination. He has good feints & will fake takedowns & come up with uppercuts. He will wing big right hooks & overhands and is willing to brawl in the pocket. A majority of his striking is to setup takedowns, but opponents still need to respect his power. He doesn’t move his head & is just a bull always coming forward, so he is there to be hit & has been stunned with some flying knees & punches in the past. Gillespie’s last three fights he’s barely gotten hit & completely dominated though. Gregor got hit one time against Yancy Medeiros & just 7 vs Vinc Pichel & Jordan Ronaldi. He is getting better at safely getting inside with his striking & implementing his game plan without having to brawl to back fighters up. Gillespie has a good chin & heart. If he’s hurt, he doesn’t get flustered, he comes back hard. Gillespie has power with 6 KO/TKO’s, most on the mat.

Gregor Gillespie is going to have the same game plan with everyone he fights. He wants to back fighters up with his forward pressure & shoot on the single when he gets them near the black line. Gillespie is excellent at shooting the single near the cage, pushing his opponents to the cage where he just hangs & rides an opponent to the mat and continuously returning them & keeping the tight waist until he can find the back or top position. He is excellent at using a couple strikes to distract his opponent then ducking under on the legs & just staying on them. If Gregor can back fighters up near the fence, he is incredibly hard to deal with. His control is just incredible & he’s one of the best wrestlers in MMA, D1 National champion and 4 time All American. Gillespie is amazing at scrambling & always ending up on top. Medeiros had some slick sweeps using gramby rolls, but Gillespie was quickly able to get in on a leg & reverse position. Gillespie passes excellently in top position and is very heavy in both mount and on the back. He is very good in half guard throwing elbows & looking for arm triangles. Gregor has finished 5 UFC fights in a row all on the ground. He has 5 career submissions. Gillespie is a dog, his cardio is unrelenting, and you have to take him out to stop him. He is undefeated & getting a huge opportunity in this fight.

 

Kevin Lee

Age: 27

Height: 5’9

Weight: 155

Reach: 75.5”

Gym: TriStar MMA

From: Michigan

UFC Record: 10-5

Fight Matrix: 7

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: +158

 

Kevin Lee will be making the drop back down to 155 lbs after a loss at 170 lbs to RDA. Kevin Lee has moved to TriStar MMA for this camp & is getting training in with Firas Zahabi & GSP. All of Kevin Lee’s issues have been mental & cardio, so a new training camp may fix some of those problems. Lee will likely be the better striker in the matchup, with a significant reach advantage. He has a strong jab and nice one-two. He will lead with a straight-right hand, and it’s his most powerful punch. He likes to counter with left hooks as fighters close the distance, and he has the power to make opponents respect him on the feet. He throws a lot of kicks; hard leg & body kicks. He will throw front kicks to the body & head and landed a nice round head kick on Francisco Trinaldo. Lee is good at changing stances and throwing kicks to the open side. He can throw kicks with both legs from both stances fluidly. He also does a good job of faking level changes and coming over the top with overhands. Kevin Lee can lose focus at times after he lands shots, and not defend himself and is susceptible to counters. He gets caught admiring his work. Against RDA & Al Iaquinta, he got caught with some huge shots especially as he got tired in the later rounds. He showed a solid chin and ate some big shots. I feel his chin is a bit questionable, as he has been rocked several times, but he has good recoverability. Lee has been TKO’d one time. He has just two TKO’s both being due to ground & pound and isn’t a hard hitter.

Kevin Lee is one of the best wrestlers in the LW division. Lee has great double leg takedowns and will drive his opponents to the cage. He is extremely physically strong, and when he gets his hands locked he will slam his opponents. His long reach allows him to get in on the legs of his opponents from a long way out. He is a good chain wrestler shooting single legs in space getting to a double leg and even having good clinch takedowns. On top, he is amazing and has nasty ground & pound, sick elbows & hammerfists. He is very heavy on top and has great back takes. He has great rear naked chokes and gotten them against great grapplers. He showed phenomenal cardio against Edson Barboza pushing an incredible pace and surviving and recovering from a spinning back kick which almost KO’d him.  Lee faced little to no adversity in that match, and he tends to break/gas when he’s pushed. His takedown defense isn’t bad, and not many opponents try to even take him down. He was taken down multiple times by RDA with well-timed doubles & singles. I definitely think Gillespie will get at least a couple takedowns, and Lee has to be ready to scramble & disengage. This is a rare fight where Lee has to win with his striking. If Lee wins a scramble & ends up on the back though, he could get the submission also. Kevin Lee’s cardio is questionable, and when he was put on his back after getting tired in his last match, he was quickly submitted. Now at 155 lbs again, he will have to deal with the weight cut & may gas even faster. Lee has to be coming in top shape as this is a make or break fight. Lee has the better submission game with 8 career submissions. He has been submitted twice himself after gassing once on top & once on bottom.

 

This is one of my favorite fights on the card and I thought both guys were potential champions in this division. After Lee’s last two fights, I am going to need to see a lot more from him to think that again about him, but a win over Gillespie could be enough. I think Gillespie is going to the be the better overall fighter here though and I think he can and will out wrestle Lee. I see him getting multiple takedowns in this fight and ending this fight with an arm-triangle choke during one of the grappling exchanges.

Gillespie is going to be a core play for me this week and likely my highest owned fighter on the slate. He is just DK gold. He has scored 152, 133, 133, 128, 107, and 100 DK points in his 6 UFC wins and I don’t know how I could ever fade him at this point. He is in play for me in all formats and I will have him in probably 70% or more of my lineups. If I don’t have him in the lineup then I do want Lee though. I think Lee is a tough test here and could possibly get takedowns and a finish himself.

Winner – Gregor Gillespie via 2^nd round Submission

 

Blagoy Ivanov $8,200 vs Derrick Lewis $8,000

Blagoy Ivanov

Age: 33

Height: 5’9

Weight: 250

Reach: 73”

Gym: ATT

From: Bulgaria

UFC Record: 2-1

Fight Matrix: 13

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: -130

 

Blagoy Ivanov is in search of a three-fight winning streak, and a potential top 5 opponent. He will put himself in prime position with a win over the Black Beast. Ivanov is a striker, with solid power. He isn’t very athletic & a bit of a plodder. He will slowly walk opponents down & look to land heavy punches. He also likes to circle the cage & try to walk opponents into his power. He has a nice jab & good straight-right hand. He will throw a double jab, right hook combo. He has a good straight-left hand, right hook. He is deceptively fast if you stay in the pocket with him, he can close distance fairly quickly.  His overhand right is powerful. He will throw lead left hooks & jab, left hooks. He will close the distance with 2-3 overhands or right hooks in a row. In his last fight, Ivanov was almost exclusively looking for the jab or left hook. He was circling Rothwell into those shots, but didn’t put much power on them, and was just really touching & moving. He did sit down on a few hooks & straight-right hands, but it was a very low risk performance. He was more willing to put power on shots vs Tuivasa, and due to that hurt Tuivasa multiple times, but was hurt himself. Ivanov isn’t the most explosive fighter & is slow with his foot speed. He has very powerful low kicks, but rarely throws them & has a short reach so he can get potshotted from the outside. He got picked apart with jabs & straight punches against JDS and couldn’t get inside. He doesn’t have the fastest feet & can get countered in exchanges & off the breaks. Ivanov has 6 career KO/TKO’s & is very durable never being finished by strikes.

Ivanov hasn’t shown his grappling game in recent fights, but he does have a decent amount of submissions. He is good at catching kicks & dragging opponents to the mat. He doesn’t have great top control, but his ground & pound is heavy when he lands. He has very good takedown defense & will attack with guillotines & front chokes. He has 3 in his career. He has 6 submissions overall & was submitted one time by Alexander Volkov. I don’t expect Blagoy to try to takedown Lewis. Ivanov’s cardio is questionable, and he gasses in round 3.

 

Derrick Lewis

Age: 34

Height: 6’2

Weight: 260

Reach: 79”

Gym: Silverback MMA

From: Texas

UFC Record: 12-5

Fight Matrix: 5

Last Fought: 8 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: +110

 

Derrick Lewis has lost back to back fights & badly needs a win here. He was finished by two former UFC champions, one by TKO & one by submission. He apparently has gotten a nutritionist & is going hard for this training camp. Lewis is a pretty good boxer and can close the distance with powerful combinations. He is very explosive for someone his size and can close the distance extremely quickly. Lewis has a similar style to that of Yoel Romero in terms of fighting in spots. He will be very inactive and look like he is not doing much on the feet at all, and then explode in with a powerful blitz attack and finish the fight. He has a decent jab, and a very good right hook. He likes to counter with a right hook in the pocket and does a good job of moving his head off center line and landing while making opponents miss. He is very good in the dirty boxing range, has nice short hooks and uppercuts and can generate knockout power in incredibly short distances. He is surprisingly athletic for a fighter his size and shows that with his bountiful kicking game. He will use an array of kicks, ranging from the front kick to the body, to a switch kick to the head. He can sometimes throw the high kick blind, but it is extremely powerful, and his opponents are forced to respect and block it. Lewis will slam the kick into his opponent’s arms, and if he can knock them off balance, he will explode with a punching combination. Lewis has no problem getting in the pocket and throwing down with fighters and will bite down on the mouth piece and go to war. He is a tough guy and some people say he is a quitter or mentally weak, but I completely disagree. Lewis has been finished by strikes 3 times, but he has a pretty good chin and the ability to take shots. He is susceptible to body shots but is tough and will battle through it. The bottom line is you always have to be careful with the “Black Beast”. He is the definition of a knockout artist with 16 KO/TKO’s to his name.

Derrick Lewis is an underrated grappler. He is good in the clinch, he does a great job of getting underhooks and digging with big knees to the body. He did this very effectively against Roy Nelson. He is also extremely dangerous in the dirty boxing realm, he can generate power in his short hooks and uppercuts that is not normal, and have fighters twitching on the canvas. He will shoot for takedowns. He likes to get double legs against the cage and will occasionally try to get a body lock takedown. He does a good job of defending takedowns, reversing and getting on top himself as well. Lewis has some of the best G&P in the history of MMA, it is absolutely devastating. He will throw huge hammerfists and elbows, and if he can pass their guard into mount, the fight is as good as over. He is extremely heavy and almost impossible to get-up from under. If he gets on top of Ivanov, or anyone for that matter they are in serious trouble. Off his back he isn’t dangerous, but he has an uncanny ability to just stand up when he wants to. He will just belly down, give his back and stand right up. Most fighters haven’t been able to take his back and or stop him from disengaging the clinch when he stands up, proving just how physically strong Lewis is. He was made to pay for that in his last match getting submitted by rear naked choke vs Daniel Cormier. Derrick Lewis has struggled with cardio himself, but still has a lot of late round finishes.

 

I couldn’t be confident in either of these guys here. I think we are going to see a slow paced, Heavyweight fight, where it could be ended at any point from a big haymaker. I think Lewis is the more powerful striker, but Ivanov is the better overall fighter. I think this is going to be a somewhat boring fight with each guy respecting the others power and we don’t see a lot of action. I wouldn’t lay juice on either of these guys, so I am going to pick the underdog with Lewis to win a fight that could go either way.

Either of these guys could end up on the optimal lineup at their prices with just one big shot. I don’t think I want to invest much in this fight guessing who that will be. I am fine fading this fight and hoping it doesn’t happen because if it’s not a 1^st or 2^nd round KO then I think this fight is off the nuts lineup. I think at most, I would have 1 of each guy in my 20 lineups and maybe even make that lineup have the other 5 spots the same.

Winner – Derrick Lewis via Split Decision

 

Stephen Thompson $8,500 vs Vicente Luque $7,700

Stephen Thompson

Age: 35

Height: 6”

Weight: 170

Reach: 75”

Gym: Upstate Karate

From: South Carolina

UFC Record: 9-4-1

Fight Matrix: 12

Last Fought: 8 Months

Last Five: 1-3-1

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: -130

 

Stephen Thompson is a 5th degree black belt in karate & a phenomenal striker. Thompson has that sideways karate stance, and a very unique skill set. He switches stances and is blazing fast in & out. He has the best distance control in the UFC bar none. That sideways stance makes him extremely hard to get inside on or hit to the body or head. It does leave him susceptible to leg kicks, and Darren Till was able to damage the leg of Thompson with an oblique kick. Thompson has a nasty jab and very good one-two, especially from southpaw. He has a very heavy straight-left hand. He will use his opponents forward pressure to angle & counter with punches usually. He is excellent at pivoting or moving just slightly out of the way & then springing back in with counters. Against Tyron Woodley, he did have some success going first, landing combinations as Woodley was along the cage. He would paw out the jab to get openings for his hooks & uppercuts. He also will attack the body with straights and hooks as well. He uses his lead leg incredibly well from both sides. He has the best front kicks to the body & head in the game. He will constantly attack the body with the front kick to get opponents to drop their hands & then go to the head. He likes to throw a one-two from orthodox, switch stances into a question mark kick to the head. He has nice hook kicks to the head, along with spinning heel kicks. His spinning heel kick to the body & most specifically the head, may be the best in the sport. He has multiple spinning heel kick knockouts in the UFC. Thompson does have a good chin & is tough.  He was knocked out for the first time in his career in his last match. Thompson has been taking some damage lately. He has been dropped in 4 of his last 5 fights. He has 7 KO/TKO’s in his career.

Stephen Thompson is not an active grappler whatsoever. He has shown the ability to land the double leg. He will fake a blitz, attack & then duck under for reactive double legs. He won’t be shooting takedowns in this fight. His takedown defense is very good. His movement overall makes it hard for opponents to time a solid entry or get inside on him. His sideways stance also makes it nearly impossible to double leg him. He had two fights with a powerhouse wrestler in Tyron Woodley and was hardly taken down. The couple times he was taken down, Woodley was able to do damage with G&P. Thompson has shown extreme heart & ability to fight submissions. He was rocked badly multiple times & then put in a deep guillotine against Tyron Woodley but found his way out of it. Thompson is going to be someone who will be extremely hard to submit or control on the mat.

 

Vincente Luque

Age: 27

Height: 5’9

Weight: 170

Reach: 75.5”

Gym: Blackzillians

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 10-1

Fight Matrix: 19

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W6

Betting Odds: +110

 

Vincente Luque is a very good prospect. He is well rounded, but his striking is what is impressive. He is very technical and long for the division, so he uses that by throwing a nice snappy jab and inside and outside leg kicks. He likes to throw a jab to a straight or jab to an overhand combination and if he lands flush, he has one punch KO power. He is a good athlete and his hands are very fast and loose and it’s hard to see what he is going to throw next. He will attack with jumping knees when he gets opponents close to the cage. He will attack to the body with hooks and does a good job of mixing up his target and coming in on good angles. He has a hands high, come forward style and does a good job of cutting off the cage and making opponents fight off their back foot. When he gets in the pocket, he will unload with overhand rights and straight-lefts. He has a good chin and is willing to take a shot to give one. In his last match, he struggled a bit with a fighter who constantly pressured him & ate his best shots. Luque isn’t used to fighters taking his shots & not going down, and he took some bombs from Barberena when Barberena was able to walk through his shots. Ultimately though, Luque still dug deep & found a way to finish him. Luque has 8 KO/TKO’s, including 5 knockouts in his last 7 wins. He has never been finished with strikes. He was dropped in his last fight, but I don’t think he was seriously hurt.

Vincente Luque has solid grappling skills, he has good takedown defense and good takedowns against the cage. He will go for singles and doubles against the cage and has decent body locks in the open mat. He has very nice submissions and his chokes are extremely dangerous. He has a nasty darce and anaconda choke. He has good top control and is very active with ground & pound and submissions. He had 6 career submissions & been submitted twice himself. His cardio is very good, and he keeps a heavy pace on fighters. He is a finisher, having finished 15 of his 17 wins.

 

Thompson is the better overall striker here and if he can keep this fight at range he is going to win. Luque I think has more power, higher volume, and more ways to win. He is the better grappler here and I think he can win the striking if he can make this fight dirty and not let Thompson get kicks off. If Luque comes into this fight with a good, heavy pressure game plan, then I think he wins.

Luque is going to end up being one of my top underdogs this week. He has a big ceiling and has scored over 100 DK points in all his wins except his last one. Thompson was also KO’d in his last fight, so we don’t know how his chin will hold up here and Luque can finish on the feet or the ground. I am not confident he gets the win here, but I am targeting his upside. Thompson is a tough guy to score against and I could see him getting a KO himself, so he isn’t out of play for me either. I don’t see me having much Thompson here, but he could make my list. Luque will be a guy I look to get in more than 30% of my lineups though most likely and I think he is fine for cash games as well if you want to go there.

Winner – Vicente Luque via Unanimous Decision

 

Kelvin Gastelum $9,200 vs Darren Till $7,000

Kelvin Gastelum

Age: 28

Height: 5’8

Weight: 170

Reach: 71.5”

Gym: Kings MMA

From: Arizona

UFC Record: 9-5-1

Fight Matrix: 7

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 2-2-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -260

 

Kelvin Gastelum has very crisp hands, and very good boxing game. He has a nasty jab & hard left hand down the middle. He throws a lot of one-twos. He will mix in powerful left hooks & left uppercuts in close range. He has good inside, outside leg kicks & a solid head kick. I feel he should throw more leg kicks in future fights. Gastelum will attack the body with kicks & front knees. He will throw the occasional body hook as well. Gastelum uses a ton of fakes, feints and false starts to try and keep his opponents guessing. That paired with his foot & hand speed being a smaller fighter for the division, give him a unique skill set. He slips & rips excellently with elite head movement. He is able to get inside with his movement, slip & rip with hooks & clean fighters clocks. He also possesses an iron chin & elite cardio. That gives him the ability to eat shots, continue to walk forward, and try to find his own like his last match vs Izzy. Kelvin has one punch power in his left hand & in my opinion is the more powerful puncher. Gastelum has 7 KO/TKO’s in his career, 8 if you count the KO of Vítor which was changed to a no contest due to marijuana. He has never been finished by strikes.

Kelvin Gastelum is going to be the better offensive wrestler in this matchup. He likes to time reactive double leg shots & usually will shoot them in space rather than against the cage. He will try to snap his opponent’s heads down if he can’t get the double and try to drag opponents down. In this fight, I think using the single leg or any takedown attempt to quell the forward pressure & get Till thinking is smart. If he can feint the level change & come up into punches, he could catch Till clean. Gastelum is very hard to takedown, much less hold down. He is excellent at giving his back & scrambling back to his feet. He was able to defend most of the takedowns & survive some ground positions with Jacare, and it doesn’t get much more dangerous than that. More likely than not, this fight will be contested purely on the feet. I do feel Gastelum will be the more likely fighter to attempt takedowns, if it happens. He does have a good rear naked choke & 6 career submissions. He has been submitted one time by Chris Weidman. Gastelum is going to need to get inside this fight. He has to get passed the kicking range of Till, get into boxing range, and try to clip him. Till can play with his hands low & is hittable. Gastelum has to capitalize & hurt Till when he is exiting with his hands down. Till took a ton of damage in his last two fights and may be more ripe for a knockout if Kelvin lands clean.

 

Darren Till

Age: 26

Height: 6’0

Weight: 170

Reach: 74.5”

Gym: Astra Fight Team

From: England

UFC Record: 5-2-1

Fight Matrix: 14

Last Fought: 8 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: +220

 

Darren Till is a solid striker. He has a hands low style and keeps a long stance. He has tremendous distance control and does a fantastic job of sliding in and out and controlling range. He has a fantastic jab, and he will follow up the jab with a straight-left hand. He is a southpaw and his left hand is nasty. It is super accurate, fast and packs big power. He has nice leg kicks and good oblique kicks. He has great footwork and does an awesome job of cutting off the cage without chasing. If he can get fighters defensive against the cage, he does a good job of landing hooks from whatever side they are trying to exit. He has sick elbows, and he does a great job of stepping in with elbows when he has his opponents against the cage. He doesn’t attack the body much & really in his last two fights has only looked for the one-two & straight-left hand. He will use a jab, uppercut or jab, overhand left also, but not much else. He needs to start implementing some different combinations, I feel ending the one-two with the round kick to the head could be effective. Till is dangerous with 10 career KO/TKO’s. He was just brutally KO’d for the first time in his career & he’s facing a fighter who has knocked down every opponent he’s faced at MW so that’s an issue.

Darren Till is not an offensive grappler and looked lost on the mat vs Woodley. He is hard to get inside on due to his distance control, and he showed solid takedown defense vs Woodley. He was able to defend all Woodley’s attempts to take him down. He looked very physically strong in the cage & will have a big size advantage over Gastelum. He won’t wrestle much, but he did show good ground & pound vs Wendell Oliveira in the UFC. He was dropped by Tyron Woodley & allowed Woodley to land brutal G&P elbows before getting a darce. He showed very bad defense on the ground & needs to work on that. Till has two submissions & been submitted once himself.

 

I do think Gastelum should be the favorite in this fight, but I think the line is too high at -210. I am interested to see how Till looks at 185 lbs and I think he is going to have a lot more power at this weight class and I think he could KO Gastelum here. He has more of a variety of strikes where Kelvin will be looking to use his boxing. I think this will be a pretty close fight and either guy could get KO’d, but at this current line I think the value is on Till, so I would say it’s dog or pass for me and I will pick him to win for that reason.

It is hard to not target both sides of this fight IMO. With it being the co-main event, it will have a good amount of ownership and I keep telling myself to let the field soak up that ownership and go elsewhere. I just end up clicking on it myself for most lineups. Both sides are in play and I think Gastelum would be the one with the 100+ point upside here. He is in play in all formats, but I do expect him to be pretty chalky. I will have some Gastelum but I am going to look to go underweight here if I can. I want to get in line with the field or above on Till though because he is a dog I like to win, I think he could get a KO, and he should be less owned. I am also not against fading both sides if you are making a few lineups. Just hope Gastelum wins a 3-round decision and a fade could work.

Winner – Darren Till via Split Decision

 

Jorge Masvidal $8,800 vs Nate Diaz $7,400

Jorge Masvidal

Age: 34

Height: 5’11

Weight: 170

Reach: 73”

Gym: American Top Team

From: Florida

UFC Record: 11-6

Fight Matrix: 4

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: -155

 

Jorge Masvidal enters the biggest fight of his life as a slight favorite. Masvidal has leaped into stardom after back to back brutal knockouts. Everyone has seen his last fight by now, where he won via KO in 4 seconds. Masvidal has been fighting over 15 years, and finally getting the notoriety he deserves. He has been on ESPN a ton in the buildup to this & done a lot of media. You have to wonder if that has affected his training, but Masvidal is the type of guy who could probably roll out of bed with no training camp & go out and fight. Masvidal is getting his third main event & third scheduled 5 round fight. He is 0-2 in his two previous 5 round fights. Masvidal has shown big power since moving to 170 lbs. 5 of his 6 wins at 170 lbs are via KO/TKO. Masvidal is an extremely talented, well-rounded fighter. He can fight as a pressure fighter, as well as fight moving backwards. His distance control is elite & makes him a very hard fighter to beat. He has an amazing jab, and very good, lead left hook. He will keep distance with the jab then counter with left hooks. He has nice round & oblique kicks to the legs. He will throw a one-two down the middle and has nice right hooks & uppercuts. His right hook is extremely powerful & he can put the lights out with it. He will attack the body with nasty punches. He will throw hard straight-rights & left hooks to the body. He has nice round & switch kicks to the liver. He will fake the left switch kick & throw knees up the middle to the body & head. He will throw nice head kicks & will stop opponent’s head movement by trying to time the kick off his opponent’s slips. He will catch kicks & return with punches. He will throw nice wheel kicks to the head & lead leg hook kicks. Obviously in his last match, he showed a disgusting flying knee he possesses. Masvidal is very smart & cerebral in the cage. Masvidal had a tendency in the past to coast. He can allow opponents to back him up & just look for counters against the cage while being out volumed. Masvidal is an OG. He has been fighting since the Kimbo backyard street fighting days. He has 15 KO/TKO’s and has been KO/TKO’d just one time which was questionable.

Masvidal is a very underrated grappler. He is very good in the clinch where he has nasty knees to the body. He is very good at landing shots off the break. He will throw hard elbows, break and then let go with a combination. He has a great inside trip & is a very good clinch wrestler. He is a very strong wrestler, both offensively & defensively. He has a very nice single leg takedown. He will transition from the single to the double leg or knee pick and get it to the ground. He has solid top control, but he really uses his takedowns to break his opponent’s rhythm more than anything. He has solid but not elite takedown defense. He has struggled with single legs & chain wrestling. He also is at a strength disadvantage in this match. He will attack with very nice front chokes to counter takedown attempts & get submissions or create scrambles. He has very good darces. We haven’t seen Jorge off his back in a long time & I definitely think Nate has the advantage on the mat. Masvidal has two submissions & has been submitted twice. He has great cardio & can go all five rounds easy.

 

Nate Diaz

Age: 34

Height: 6’0

Weight: 170

Reach: 76”

Gym: Nick Diaz Academy

From: California

UFC Record: 15-9

Fight Matrix: 9

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +135

 

Nate Diaz already had one win last week, proving he’s a BMF outside of the cage once again. Diaz was notified by USADA of a potential violation, and instead of playing ball their way, he went public immediately with the information & turned the gun on USADA. He forced USADA to expedite their process of testing to exonerate him or else he wasn’t going to fight. USADA found the tainted supplement which completely exonerated Diaz, and thus we have a fight. Nate Diaz is one of the best boxers in MMA. He blends that with an incredible Jiu-Jitsu game to make a super dangerous athlete. Diaz looks bigger than ever coming into this fight & will be stronger. Nate is a high volume, forward pressure, southpaw striker on the feet. He has a long reach & works behind a snappy jab & nasty one-two. His one-two is his best combination, and he has pop in his hands. Nate likes to cut off the cage, forward pressure where he can back opponents up & put combinations together on them against the cage. He will go body, head & overwhelm opponents with his volume. Diaz has started to implement some nice stance switches into his game to cut the cage off and is willing to strike in orthodox for longer periods of time. He is good at countering low kicks with the one-two, but he is heavy on his lead leg. He has gotten much better at checking them over the years, hurting Pettis’s leg with a check. Nate will throw some leg & body kicks himself, but he isn’t a big kicker. He has a nice counter right hook, and definitely packs power. He rocks a lot of opponents & then submits then. Nate is going to have to get inside, close the distance & make Masvidal fight moving backwards or in a phone booth. If he can start to land & keep the pressure high, he can break Pettis. Nate’s defense is not great. He is very hittable & has had a big problem with head kicks in his career. He was finished by Josh Thompson after he landed a flush head kick & dropped with a head kick against Cowboy. Diaz has been finished just once by strikes in his career & has a granite chin. He is one of the most durable fighters in UFC history.

Nate Diaz is a Cesar Gracie black belt & amazing Jiu-Jitsu practitioner. He is tied for the most submissions in lightweight history. Diaz likes to get most of his takedowns in the clinch. He will get fighters against the cage where he will attack with trips & even go down for double legs. He has decent judo throws as well. Diaz isn’t an active wrestler & not very successful with his takedowns in the UFC. He has landed less than 40% of them and doesn’t defend takedowns that well either. In his last match, Diaz added a nice single leg takedown into his game, and was able to bully Pettis against the fence, almost finishing him. He is excellent off his back & can finish inside his guard. He also counters with guillotines. Diaz has a very good triangle & nice armbars. He will use the rubber guard & attack with elbows as well. I actually see Nate being more active looking for the takedown in this fight. When Nate gets top position, his opponents are in trouble. He will pass to dominant positions like butter & has great submission ability. He is excellent at getting the back & getting rear naked chokes. He was dominant in his last match positionally vs Pettis & did a lot of damage with ground & pound. Diaz has 11 career submissions and was only submitted one time early in his career.

 

I can’t wait for this “BMF” title fight. These really are two of the baddest guys in the sport and they have been fighting since before I even knew MMA was a thing. I think this is going to be a very fun fight and I am glad these guys are getting all the attention they deserve. Usually, Nate is the better boxer in his fights. He uses his boxing and high volume to wear guys out and when he senses they are tired he steps on the pedal. He won’t be the better boxer in this match though. Jorge has some of the best hands in the sport and he has a lot more power than Nate as well. Nate is the better BJJ player, but Masvidal is the better wrestler, so I don’t see this hitting the mat. I do think this being 5-rounds does help Nate a bit and maybe he can win the later rounds in this fight. I have to go with Jorge here though and I think he will drop Nate in this fight, at least once. Nate is super hard to finish but I think this is a good matchup for Masvidal and I see him landing hard early in this fight and clearly winning rounds 1 & 2, if not finishing in one of those rounds. I think he will have the cardio to last the full 25-minutes with Nate here and I think him having the better boxing will take away from the normal pressure we see from Nate. If this goes to the judges, I still like Masvidal to get his hand raised but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a Fight Of The Year type fight here and it ends up being a close split decision either way.

All-in. Stack in cash. You know the deal. With 5-rounds to work with, I would be shocked if the winner of this fight wasn’t on the nuts and if Diaz wins, he is an absolute lock for the nuts. He has the highest floor and ceiling as an underdog I would say, and he will be heavily owned for that reason. Masvidal has the better shot of a finish here and I expect him to be a bit lower owned. I am going to make both guys core plays here, but my preferred play is Masvidal and I think he could shock the world with another (T)KO. I think you can and probably should stack this fight in a GPP lineup or two as well. This has close to 200-point upside with all the sig strikes we could see here and I could definitely see Nate making the optimal lineup in a loss. Load up on this fight, it should be a good one.

Winner – Jorge Masvidal via 2^nd round (T)KO

 

 

 

 

Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!

 

 

 

*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru

**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.

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