BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC 243 Location – Melbourne, Australia
This weekend, we have an 11-fight PPV card in Australia. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw a handful of entries at that $30k prize. Typically, I stay around 20 lineups each week and go after that big GPP and then max the $4 20-entry max GPP as well. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Khalid Taha $8,900 vs Bruno Silva $7,300
Khalid Taha
Age: 26
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: AKA
From: Germany
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 109
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -230
Khalid Taha will be looking to build off his 25 second, upset knockout of Boston Salmon. Taha has moved his training camp to AKA & should be improving. He will be facing a UFC newcomer in Bruno Silva. Taha is a solid striker. He has heavy leg kicks, and a nice jab. He has nice one-twos. He will throw a very powerful straight-right hand lead. He will throw a lot of overhand rights. He will throw a left hook to the body to a straight-left hand, right hook combination. He likes to throw front kicks to the body. He is fast, but he is a bit obvious and I feel Silva is faster, and possibly will be able to move & counter with kicks. Taha holds his left hand low. Taha is dangerous & when inside will swing wild hooks and uppercuts. He hits hard & has to be respected on the feet. He has 8 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished with strikes.
Taha is not an active offensive grappler. I haven’t seen him shoot any takedowns from range. I have seen Taha get a body lock takedown & have some top control from half guard. He attacks the body with knees & short punches but doesn’t posture up and do much damage. He does more damage with G&P when standing up inside opponent’s guards. He is solid at pressure passing directly into side control and looking for the back. Overall, he won’t look to wrestle very often, and lost his UFC debut by being taken down. He is explosive & has decent get-ups, but his technique on his back isn’t great. He is harder to takedown against the cage & likely will be the bigger fighter in this match. Once he gasses, he doesn’t have the greatest ability to stand up. He was grinded out by Narimani, but Nad is a 145er. He will use submissions if he’s in his guard to create scrambles to stand up. He got caught with a guillotine trying to stand up in a recent fight in Rizin. Taha is going to be trying to defend takedowns in this fight & knock Silva out. He needs to get into boxing range effectively with feints & then get out. He can’t stay at kicking range & has to pressure but can’t give up the takedowns or clinch. Taha has 2 submissions & has been submitted twice himself.
Bruno Silva
Age: 29
Height: 5’3
Weight: 135
Reach: 66”
Gym: Fight Ready
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 314
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 2-1-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +190
Bruno Silva has won back to back fights & holds a record of 11-3-1. Silva has participated on TUF Brazil going 1-1 on the show. Silva has also been a main training partner for Henry Cejudo for years. Bruno Silva is a very well-rounded fighter. Bruno Silva is a great kicker. Silva doesn’t have the greatest hands. He is very fast, has a nice jabs & decent hooks, but holds his hands low. Silva brings his hands back too slow after throwing punches & can get tagged clean. Silva tends to be on the outside & throw a lot of kicks before timing takedowns. He is extremely fast and has very good movement. He throws nice round & front kicks to the body and head. Silva will throw spinning kicks to the body & head. He throws nice, front leg sidekicks to the body and head. If Silva can stay on the outside & use his kicks he is a good striker. I haven’t been able to watch his last two fights, but I do expect improvements. Silva is a great athlete & training with a thriving camp. Silva has 4 KO/TKO’s & has been knocked out one time. He was finished in 7 seconds with a head kick.
Bruno Silva is a good grappler. He is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt & trains with one of the best wrestling coaches in MMA in Eric Albarracin. Silva digs double underhooks excellently & has great control against the fence. He will throw nice knees to the legs & body, along with having nice body locks, and trips. Silva will duck under into double legs also & has good shots. On top, he has good control & is aggressive. He likes to progress to mount or the back & has multiple rear naked choke victories. Silva has good ground & pound and can grind 3 rounds hard for takedowns. In this fight, I expect him to utilize a heavy dose of wrestling if he is to win. I expect Silva’s wrestling to be improved under Eric Albaraccin & Henry Cejudo. I haven’t seen many people try to take Silva down. In his fight with Casey Kenney, he denied a couple takedowns easily, and Kenney never really shot again. Silva actually was the one going for takedowns & getting dominant clinch position. Kenney is a great grappler who is now 2-0 in the UFC, and him & Silva went to a draw. Silva has been submitted two times. He was caught in a guillotine on TUF against Dileno Lopes. Silva has 3 submissions.
Taha is going to be the bigger and more powerful striker here, but I think Silva is the better overall fighter. Silva is moving up to bantamweight here, but I think he is a live dog, especially if he can get the fight to the mat. Taha is going to be trying to knock Silva’s head off but if Silva can use movement and avoid the big power on the feet, I think he is good enough to keep this fight close and maybe even win rounds with takedowns or possibly submit Taha. If Silva can weather the early storm I think he has a shot at the upset. Not a confident pick here but I do think it’s a dog or pass fight.
As usual, I am interested in the 1st fight of the night and I think both sides are playable. My preferred play is going to be Silva because I am picking him to win and he is cheap, but I don’t want to go too heavy on him if MMEing. I think Taha is in play for a 1st round KO in this fight and if that happens then he could pass up the $9k fighters and end up on the optimal lineup at lower ownership. This is a fight I would want to target in probably half or so of my lineups. If I was making 10 lineups, I would probably have 3 Bruno and 2 Taha or something along those lines. I don’t love this fight for cash games, but I have thought about using Bruno there. I don’t like his floor though, so I think he is a better GPP play, and I would rather pay up for the $9k fighters over Taha in cash games.
Winner – Bruno Silva via 3rd round Submission
Ji Yeon Kim $8,700 vs Nadia Kassem $7,500
Ji Yeon Kim
Age: 29
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 72”
Gym: Alliance MMA
From: South Korea
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 61
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -200
Ji Yeon Kim is getting back on the horse after a loss late last year to Antonina Shevchenko. This will be her first fight in 2019. Kim has been staying busy during her time off. She has spent a lot of time even when she didn’t have a fight scheduled at Alliance MMA & put in a 5-week camp there for this fight. I expect Kim to look improved with better coaching & training partners. Kim did have issues making weight weighing in at 130 lbs for her last fight. With this fight being in Australia, I could see this being another tough weight cut. Ji Yeon Kim is a big fighter for the weight class with a long reach. She has a 6” reach advantage in this fight. Kim is almost solely a boxer. Her footwork especially early in fights can be lacking. She is a bit plodding & flat footed. She does have a nice jab & straight-right hand. Kim will throw a one-two or left hook, straight-right combination. She loves the left hook, straight or overhand right combination throwing it very often. She will throw a large volume of punches but can come up short at times & get countered. Kim will walk into range without moving her head at all at times. In certain fights Kim has turned up her movement volume & forward pressure, particularly against Justine Kish in round 3. She will use a lot of feints, false starts, and body movement to get into range & throw a large volume of punches. She will come over the top with hooks & overhand combinations, and straight punches down the middle. Kim can catch opponents at the end of her punches when they think they’re out of range & snap their heads back. Kim is definitely going to be the superior puncher in this fight. She has to be more aggressive with her forward pressure & let her hands go. If she puts combinations together & backs Kassem to the cage, she should have a huge advantage. She may even be able to get a knockout. If she stands on the outside & let’s Kassem get comfortable throwing kicks in the center & trading shots back & forth it could be very close. Kim has the skills to make this an easy fight she just has to go out there & do it. Kim doesn’t have much power & has no finishes with strikes in her career. She has also never been finished by strikes & has a tough chin. She is coming off a loss to a very high-level striker in Antonina Shevchenko where she went to a decision.
Ji Yeon Kim is not a grappler & I don’t expect this fight to hit the mat. If anyone is to shoot for takedowns or go for the clinch I see it being Kassem. Kim has zero UFC takedowns. She was taken down two times in her last match by Shevchenko, but I honestly don’t envision Kassem going for many takedowns. Kim does have 3 submissions pre-UFC. She has never been submitted. Kim has a big experience advantage over Kassem & has fought the higher-level competition. Kim is also definitely going to have the cardio advantage in this matchup. Ji Yeon Kim needs to get in the pocket & use her boxing, counter the kicks of Kassem with straight punches, make her gun shy, and then start pressuring her. If Kim can draw out a bad takedown, she could counter with a nice uppercut or just land longer combos against the cage. Kim needs to keep the pressure high & make this a faster paced fight.
Nadia Kassem
Age: 23
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 66”
Gym: Australian Top Team
From: Australia
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +170
Nadia Kassem suffered the first loss of her career in February. She was submitted by Montana De La Rosa, and largely dominated in that match. Kassem is getting another fight in her home country of Australia & will have the crowd on her side. At 23 years old it’s conceivable she will be making big improvements in between fights. She has implemented a strength & conditioning program into her training for the first time in this camp. Prior to the UFC, Nadia Kassem fought low level fighters, but got them all out of there quickly. She finished 3 fights in under 30 seconds & the other was under 1:30 seconds. On the feet, Kassem is a kicker with questionable boxing. Kassem will throw long punches. She will throw long one-twos and has a decent left hook, straight-right hand combination. Kassem likes to stay on her bike, use lateral movement, and kicks to stay on the outside. She will throw some nice inside, outside leg kicks. She throws a lot of front & round kicks to the body. Kassem will throw some round & question mark kicks to the head. Kassem will throw some head kicks to spinning backfists combinations, or vice versa & does have a spinning backfist KO. Kassem can try to steal close rounds with antics I’ve noticed. She will throw her hands up & posture to try to goad her opponents into doing something emotional. Defensively Kassem leaves a lot to be desired. Her footwork is not very good. Montana De La Rosa was able to easily cut her off & back her up against the cage. When fighters can get inside of her kicks, her chin is right in the air & she doesn’t move her head. Fighters can land clean shots on her chin & use that to setup easy takedowns. She will just back up in a straight line towards the cage. We saw Montana De La Rosa put Kassem on her back in less than 30 seconds in both rounds one & two of her last fight. Kassem to me is just not UFC level overall on the feet. She needs a lot of work with her footwork & boxing. Kassem does have 4 KO/TKO’s in her first four fights. None of the opponents she’s defeated have had a pro win.
Nadia Kassem is not a great grappler with very questionable wrestling. Off her back, Kassem isn’t bad. She is long and has an aggressive guard. Kassem will roll for leg locks & look to belly down into single legs. She traps wrists well & will throw up triangles & armbars. She will also just use her legs to offset the balance & create scrambles. She is aggressive in her guard with elbows & punches. In the scrambles Kassem is pretty good. She was able to sweep Chambers a couple times. Montana De La Rosa was able to pass her guard with a lot of pressure and get the crucifix position. De La Rosa took mount, and then a mounted triangle armbar. Kassem is one of those girls that’s very scramble-ly in submissions & has an almost rubbery arm. She took top position when De La Rosa went for the armbar in round one, but ultimately was forced to submit to the armbar in round two. In top position, Kassem doesn’t let much offense off. She doesn’t have the best top control & has no career submissions. Kassem also gasses badly & has one round of cardio. With her new strength & conditioning program, that may be improved here, but it’s never been shown in a fight. She was huffing & puffing after round one in both her UFC fights.
This should be a striking match and I think the line looks about right here. I think Kim will be the fighter pressuring forward and I see her having the higher volume and more cage control. Kassem is the hometown fighter here though and this fight could be close enough where the crowd could sway the judges. This fight is a -350 line on Fight Goes To Decision so at these odds I would rather just take the home fighter here and maybe even hope for some home cooking. I think she could keep the fight at range and win with her kicks but if this fight wasn’t in Australia I’d be taking Kim.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is definitely Kassem. I have zero interest in Kim here at $8.7k because I don’t think she gets a finish and I don’t see her looking to grapple much. If she gets a finish then she will be super low owned, so the only reason I would play her would be for ownership purposes only in a big field GPP. Kassem is in play in all formats though for me. I like her floor here, so I think we can use her in cash and take 20-30 points in a loss. I also think she is a live dog in this fight, and I like targeting any underdogs I think can win in GPPs. I don’t think she has a high celling, but she could look to grapple, and I think she could get 10x with a decision win. Not a fight I will look to target much, but Kassem will make my player pool.
Winner – Nadia Kassem via Split Decision
Megan Anderson $9,400 vs Zarah Fairn dos Santos $6,800
Megan Anderson
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 145
Reach: 72”
Gym: Glory MMA & Fitness
From: Australia
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 5
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -500
Megan Anderson suffered a setback in her last match losing to Felicia Spencer. She is 1-2 in the organization so far & the hype she came in with is virtually gone. She needs a knockout performance to remind the fans of her Invicta days. Anderson is fighting in Australia, so she should be ready to go. Anderson is a big, athletic girl. She is 6’0 tall, but decently athletic & moves well. Anderson is a heavy-handed striker with good forward pressure. She has a good jab & strong, straight-right hand. Her right hand is very accurate & powerful. She has a nasty overhand left. In close range she will unload with straight punch & hook combinations, and she has fast hand speed. She will mix in head kicks at the end of her combinations. When she gets fighters backed against the cage, that’s when she’s at her best, and can really batter fighters. She will use spinning backfists into straight punches. She does a good job of doubling and tripling up with a left or right hook when fighters try to circle their back off the cage. She has nasty step-in knees to the body & head along with great elbows when she gets fighters against the cage. On the feet, she is a dangerous fighter, and will finish opponents when she has them hurt. She will throw a ton of volume, and not let up until the fight is over. She has finished her last 4 wins via KO/TKO. She has never been finished by strikes.
Megan Anderson’s kryptonite in her career has obviously been the grappling. That was once again exploited in her last match. She was taken down & submitted very quickly by Felicia Spencer. She showed terrible defense when Spencer was on her back & looks to have not improved her ground game at all over the years. Anderson can’t get-up off her back when taken down & her takedown defense is not good. In this fight, I don’t see her having to defend takedowns so it’s a good matchup for her. If she gets taken down by Dos Santos, who I have never seen attempt a takedown in any of her fights, then she is truly a lost cause. Anderson’s cardio hasn’t been tested much in MMA. She has only been out of round 2 4 times in her career. Anderson is just 1-2 in decisions.
Zarah Fairn Dos Santos
Age: 32
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: Platinum
From: France
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 2 Years 10 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +400
Zarah Fairn Dos Santos will be making her UFC debut. She has won 3 consecutive fights but hasn’t fought since December 2017. Dos Santos is a very tall, rangy fighter. She actually has a longer reach than Megan Anderson. Dos Santos striking overall is not very good. She has plodding footwork and tends to just walk opponents down with straight punch combos. Dos Santos has a pretty good jab but doesn’t use it nearly enough. She wants to get opponents backed up to the cage where she will throw some hooks & body kicks. In the clinch is where she gets the most damage off on the feet. She will grab the Muay Thai plum & land hard knees. Dos Santos will also mix in some dirty boxing to the body and head. Dos Santos doesn’t move her head. She stands very tall & her chin is right in the air. She does look tough and as if she has power. Sometimes it looks like she is just touching & not putting a lot of power on her punches. Zarah has been able to walk down every opponent I’ve seen her fight. She only fights in one way & that’s moving forward. I have seen her cracked coming into range & dropped, and her chin will definitely be tested in this spot. Zarah has 4 KO/TKO’s in 6 wins, and hits hard.
Zarah Dos Santos is not an offensive grappler. This will be a stand-up fight & I don’t see either fighter looking to get it to the ground. In the clinch, I would say Zarah is better with her offensive weapons, but Megan maybe has better technique. Dos Santos has no idea how to dig underhooks and can spend large portions of rounds stuck against the cage. Dos Santos hasn’t fought many high-level wrestlers, but she’s shown some decent takedown defense. She will use her height to off balance opponents when they try to take her down, and reverse position. Dos Santos doesn’t have offensive wrestling, and I don’t expect her to have to defend takedowns either. If there is any grappling in this fight I expect it to be in the clinch. Zarah has no submissions & has never been finished.
This is a setup fight to get Anderson a win in Australia. Anderson has lost 2 of her 3 UFC fights from being taken down and that is her weakness. She shouldn’t have to worry about that here though because they set her up with a striker. I think Anderson picks her apart here and probably gets a referee stoppage at some point.
I think Anderson is in play in all formats this week and I don’t think she will be very highly owned. She will likely need a knockout to score highly but I think she can get it. I like her odds to win for my cash lineups if I can fit her and unlike the other $9k fighters I don’t think there is much of a chance they could kill us by getting finished early. I also like her as a low owned GPP play and I think she could be the lowest owned of the $9k fighters. I have no interest in Dos Santos here though, so she will be a full fade for me.
Winner – Megan Anderson via 2nd round (T)KO
Brad Riddell $8,600 vs Jamie Mullarkey $7,600
Brad Riddell
Age: 28
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: City Kickboxing
From: New Zealand
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 524
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -145
Brad Riddell is the first City Kickboxing representative on the card. Riddell is 6-1 in his career. He is from New Zealand fighting an Australian, so I expect him to be fighting against a hostile crowd as well. I think the Australians will be cheering against the New Zealanders due to the beef in the main event between Rob & Izzy. I was only able to find one MMA fight from Riddell, so it’s hard to 100% get a read on him. Brad Riddell is a great kickboxer winning several national championships. Riddell has fought fighters such as Cedric Doubme & John Wayne Parr, so he has faced elite level competition in the striking realm. Riddell actually dominated John Wayne Parr in their last matchup. Brad Riddell is very technical & has excellent feints. Riddell likes to use forward pressure & feints to back opponents up near the ropes or cage. I actually have never seen him fight in a cage even in his MMA fight. Riddell has a great jab & heavy inside and outside leg kicks. Riddell has a nasty left hook. He will throw the left hook in combination to the body and head very well. He has a nasty left hook, right uppercut combination. He has a very heavy overhand right. Riddell will pull counter with the right straight or hook. He has very fast hand speed & if he can land a pull counter in the pocket, he usually will come with 3-4 more punches behind it. Riddell likes to fight forward to forward a lot, or in very close quarters in kickboxing. He isn’t a fighter who uses a ton of movement. In MMA, I feel he has to move & angle a bit more. Riddell does have hard round kicks to the body and head. Riddell has a nasty front knee to the body. He is very explosive and will almost lull opponents to sleep with his feint & then move into range quickly. He has shown the ability to create new angles very well in the pocket with side steps. He will land a combination, side step as his opponent tries to exit & land clean shots. This is where he usually gets his knockouts. In MMA his feints will be extremely high level. I see him freezing a lot of opponents with them & giving fighters problems. Riddell has 5 KO/TKO’s in MMA and won his first decision in his last match. He does have a knockout win over current UFC fighter Kenan Song. Other than Song he has not fought very great competition.
I have only found one MMA fight from Brad Riddell. In this fight he did defend a single leg takedown, reverse & circle to the back. His opponent quickly was able to re-guard, and Riddell just stood right back up. Riddell does do a good job of using feints to draw out takedown attempts. This allows him to get his opponents tired & discouraged to continue to shoot. Riddell is obviously not going to want to be on his back. I don’t even think Riddell wants to be inside an opponent’s guard. Riddell’s one loss in MMA was via armbar. I haven’t seen him off his back in MMA. Riddell is going to be looking to keep this fight standing. I do feel with Riddell’s style, he may struggle with grapplers. He likes to fight in close range & opponents will be able to shoot or grab ahold of him there. This will be the fourth fight of Riddell’s for 2019 so he has been very active. I don’t expect Riddell to be overwhelmed by the moment & I see him performing to his capabilities.
Jamie Mullarkey
Age: 25
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: N/A
Gym:Magnus Martial Arts Erina
From: Australia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 258
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +125
Jamie Mullarkey is the more experienced fighter at 11-2. He has finished four consecutive fights. Mullarkey has spent the majority of his career at 145 lbs but has had his last 3 at LW. Mullarkey’s striking looks fairly technical. Mullarkey has a nice jab, and a very good one-two. He will double up on the jab. Mullarkey has a very nice left hook and a good left hook, straight-right hand. He has a nice jab, right hook. He will dig to the body with hooks. Mullarkey has nice leg kicks. He will throw a jab to a body or head kick combination. Mullarkey’s hand combinations aren’t bad when opponents allow him to go first & get his range. Mullarkey doesn’t have quick feet, and due to that, fighters who are aggressive can get inside on him rather easily. He looks very hittable in close range and backs up in straight lines. In his last fight, he did show some improvements in that aspect. He was slipping punches better, using more head movement & countering to back opponents off. He will look to counter with uppercuts as opponents enter & is willing to trade. I would say his striking looked the best it ever looked in his last match & he’s definitely improving his boxing. Mullarkey also has great forward pressure & keeps the volume high. He definitely has pop in his punches. Mullarkey has been knocked out one time by Alexander Volkanovski. He has also lost by TKO due to shots on the mat one time. Mullarkey has 7 KO/TKO’s & finished his last three wins in that manner.
Jamie Mullarkey will look to mix it up & isn’t a bad wrestler. When fighters pressure him & start to back him up that’s when he tends to shoot. He has good double leg & body lock takedowns. Against the cage he has good double legs & is relentless going for the takedown. He will get in on singles also. Mullarkey can be too aggressive going for the takedown at times & end up on his back. He can give his back when going for the single. When Mullarkey gets top position, he has good control & stays tight. He will posture from full guard & land nice elbows & hammerfists. I did see him get threatened with a deep armbar in a recent fight. He will look to move to half guard & land short elbows. He will look to trap the arm with his knee & land undefended shots. His ground & pound in half guard is probably the best aspect of his ground game. He has good control there & will go to work with big shots. Mullarkey will look to get the mount & the back but doesn’t have good control or finishing ability in those positions. When he takes dominant position, he can lose scrambles & end up on bottom. He also makes mistakes in scrambles giving up dominant positions. Off his back, he doesn’t look very proficient. In his last loss he was finished with ground & pound elbows quickly. Mullarkey does have a few submissions but is more of a ground & pound guy. Mullarkey has 4 career submissions. He has never been submitted. Mullarkey has finished all but one of his wins & has been finished in both of his losses. He has great cardio and is a kill or be killed fighter.
Riddell has very solid kickboxing and Muay Thai skills, but he is strictly a striker and he could be in trouble if put on his back. Mullarkey is a more well-rounded fighter but he does like to stand as well. Mullarkey is the Australian fighting the New Zealander so he will have the crowd behind him here most likely. I think he is going to need to get the fight to the ground to have any real shot here though. I think he has a KO chance on the feet, but I like Riddell a lot as long as this fight stays standing.
FDGTD is -160 in this fight and I think both sides are in play with that number. I think if this fight stays standing that Riddell is very in play for the knockout. I like his striking and he looks dangerous as well. I could see him finishing Mullarkey with a shot to the head or body. I also like Mullarkey here because if he can get the fight to the ground, he could finish himself with either a submission or a GNP finish. I also think his odds are in play for cash games if needed. I do think this is a better GPP fight than it is for cash games, but I don’t hate either side at their prices. If I am making 10 lineups this week I would guess each guy makes about 2-3 lineups. Their price tags combined with the FDGTD line is what I am targeting, and I do like the mid-range this week, so I will hover around this area in a lot of lineups.
Winner – Brad Riddell via 2nd round (T)KO
Maki Pitolo $9,000 vs Callan Potter $7,200
Maki Pitolo
Age: 28
Height: 5’10
Weight: 185
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: West Oahu MMA
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 219
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -335
Maki Pitolo is getting a quick turnaround after an impressive win on the DWCS. He moved up a weight class & still was able to TKO his opponent in the first round. Pitolo will be coming back down to 170 lbs for his UFC debut. He is taking on a former LW in Callan Potter. Maki Pitolo is going to be the much faster, more technical striker. Pitolo has much better footwork, is more fluid in his movements, with better feints & fakes. He has a nasty jab, and a great one-two. He has nice inside, outside leg kicks. He has an excellent jab to the body. He has an excellent left hook as well. He is good at touching opponents with jabs & short hooks, and then mixing in power shots. Sometimes fighters can land hooks or overhands to counter his jab, and he can get clipped a bit when he’s forced to move backwards. Pitolo will turn up & throw long combinations when he finds his range. He is excellent at using good shot selection. He will attack the body & has excellent uppercut, hook combos. He finished Justin Sumter, a big 185 lber with brutal body shots. He will mix in spinning backfists, flying knees & elbows, when he backs opponents near the cage. Pitolo’s ability to put combinations together with his hands should do him very well here. If Pitolo just touches Potter as he tries to get inside, the big shots will come. Pitolo can get hurt, he doesn’t have an elite chin. He can be a little bit reckless at times & slows down in the later rounds. In the fights he’s been stunned, he’s been fighting much bigger men. I don’t see Potter being able to hurt Pitolo with a punch unless it’s right on the button. The only way I could see Potter hurting Pitolo standing is a head kick. Pitolo has been KO/TKO’d twice. Pitolo has 5 KO/TKO’s himself.
Maki Pitolo isn’t a bad wrestler & will look to mix it up. In this fight, I would look to just keep it on the feet, avoid wrestling and the clinch. Pitolo does use his longer combos to back opponents up where he will shoot singles & doubles. Pitolo has nice, reactive shots at range also. In top position, Pitolo is almost exclusively a back taker. He won’t throw much ground & pound but looks to pass aggressively & eventually take the back. Pitolo has solid control on the back & will attack with rear naked chokes. He has two rear naked choke victories in his 3 submission wins. Pitolo can get shucked off the back & was submitted by Dakota Cochrane in a scramble with a guillotine. In this fight with a fighter like Potter who is tricky on the ground, I would not mess around on the ground at all. If Pitolo can just keep it on the feet at range, he should have a big advantage. Pitolo has three submissions & has been submitted twice. Pitolo is going to be the much bigger fighter in this matchup. He fought at 185 lbs in his last matchup, and in his victory FC fight vs Dakota Cochrane at 170 he was 191 lbs on fight night. Pitolo can get tired in a high paced fight. For this fight Pitolo needs to be composed & just piece Potter up as he tries to come forward on him. Pitolo puts his combinations together very effectively & Potter likes to come forward defending punches with his face. If Pitolo can keep this a striking fight it’s only a matter of time before he finds the knockout.
Callan Potter
Age: 35
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: Renegade MMA
From: Australia
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 289(Lightweight)
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +275
Callan Potter is looking to make good on his second UFC fight. He was knocked out badly in his UFC debut in February. Potter is fighting in his home country of Australia & is training alongside fighters such as Ben Sosoli & Jake Matthews. Potter is an older fighter at 35 years old, so a win is absolutely crucial here. Potter’s striking is not very good. Potter doesn’t have great footwork. He will just plod into range & doesn’t cut the cage off well. Potter does have a nice left hook & overhand right. Potter has a powerful uppercut. Potter will throw a jab, head kick combination. Most of Potter’s knockouts are via head kick. He has decent low kicks. He will duck his head, eat punches & try to return with hooks. Potter stands right in front of opponents & isn’t fast. He will just use a high guard to defend punches, but has a leaky guard, and can be hit with body shots. Potter will just sit there eat combinations & try to return. He is very tough. In his UFC debut he ate a brutal combination that was followed up with ground & pound that put him out cold. Potter’s style is reckless & due to this he’s been knocked out 4 times. Potter actually does have power when he can land clean, but just isn’t the fastest guy. He has 5 KO/TKO’s.
Callan Potter is always looking to get the fight to the mat. He is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu & very good in top position. Potter doesn’t shoot many takedowns from range but does a good job of getting over/unders in the clinch. He will use hooks to disguise singles & doubles at times & has pretty quick shots. He doesn’t have the ability to drive through on many takedown shots. He will close the distance & push opponents against the cage while looking for trips & body locks. Potter also has had some nice hip throws in the past. Overall, I would say Potter is not the greatest wrestler. Potter will pull guard and use leg locks to reverse to top position. Potter will also jump on guillotines & armbars. When Potter does get top position, he is very good. He has heavy ground & pound, and nice elbows. He passes to dominant positions quickly & likes to take the back. He has nice rear naked chokes. Potter has 10 submissions & is very dangerous on the mat. Potter has been submitted four times in his career. Potter has shown poor cardio in the past & slows down in the third round. He does continue to come forward & fight through the fatigue but becomes very hittable. Callan Potter needs to be extremely aggressive in this fight & never go backwards. He has to get in the clinch, slow the fight down & look for takedowns or even pull guard. At range on the feet, he is most likely going to be at a huge disadvantage. Potter needs to get this fight to the ground & catch Pitolo in a submission.
Pitolo is coming off an impressive body strike KO on the Contender Series and Potter is coming off a 53 second KO loss in his UFC debut. I see Pitolo being the much better striker here and if it stays standing he probably finds a KO. Potter is going to need this fight to be on the mat to have a shot and if he can get it there then he could possibly get a submission. I think Pitolo will be able to keep this fight on the feet and I think he gets a KO in rounds 1 or 2.
This is one of the better GPP plays this week and I don’t think we see a decision here. FDGTD line is -365 and I think it’s either Pitolo via KO or Potter via submission. Pitolo is my preferred play though and I think he could end up being a core play for me. I love him for GPPs and I think he gets a 1st or 2nd round finish bonus. I don’t love his floor for cash, but I do like him a lot to win and he is in my free bet for the week. I parlayed Matthews/Pitolo for my free bet and I like those guys a lot this week on DK as well. I will target Potter in a lineup or two as well because I think he will be unowned basically and if he got a 1st round submission it wouldn’t completely shock me. I have seen Pitolo submitted from a dominant position before and we could see Potter diving for leg locks. Pitolo will be a guy I would want in probably half my 10 lineups and then Potter would be 2 max.
Winner – Maki Pitolo via 2nd round (T)KO
Jake Matthews $9,100 vs Rostem Akman $7,100
Jake Matthews
Age: 25
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: Nexus
From: Australia
UFC Record: 7-4
Fight Matrix: 86
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -340
Jake Matthews will be looking to bounce back from his disappointing loss to Rocco Martin late last year. This will be his first fight of 2019, and he’s getting another home game in Australia. Matthews will be taking on a fighter who is still looking for their first UFC win in Rostem Akman. Matthews is very light on his feet, fast & explosive. He likes to bounce in & out on the outside and explode in with big overhands & hooks. He will close the distance with nice, straight punches. When opponents try to come in, he will counter with a flurry of hooks or overhand heaters. Matthews definitely has big power & can sit opponents down with either hand. Matthews likes to throw an overhand right, left hook combination. Even if he doesn’t land the overhand right, he will still follow through with the left hook & catches a lot of guys backing up with it. Matthews can get very wild & wide in the pocket as the fight goes on. When fighters pressure him & make him feel uncomfortable, he almost just wings & prays hoping it backs opponents off. Matthews has shown some good head movement in the past and will slip & rip well. Fighters who are able to feint & or stay calm, block & return will definitely win a standup fight vs Matthews. Matthews doesn’t throw many kicks, but in this fight, I would throw more leg kicks. Matthews actually got ate up with the low calf kicks in his last match, so he may be ready to throw some of his own now. Matthews will throw some nice flying knees. Matthews definitely has a strong chin and is willing to take shots to give shots. It’s funny because in some fights he seems ready for a war & others he seems to quit. He still hasn’t quite mastered his mental game yet. Matthews definitely is explosive with power. He has 4 TKOs and has only been finished by TKO one time.
Jake Matthews is a Jiu-Jitsu black belt with a smashing top game. He is very strong in the clinch, he has hard punches and knees to the body, while looking for nice trips. He has strong double legs, and he does a good job of grabbing a single leg, coming back up to a body lock and dumping his opponent. He blends his takedowns & grappling well in some fights. When Matthews gets top position, he has tremendous control & ground & pound. He will posture up & land some brutal punches & elbows and use that to improve position. Matthews is always searching for the back where he has an excellent rear naked choke. His last win was a rear naked choke. Matthews also most likely would have gotten a guillotine in a recent fight vs Li Jingliang if it wasn’t for an egregious eye gouge by the Leach. Matthews will snatch guillotines very quickly & has a great squeeze. Matthews has had some fights where he was broken with wrestling & scrambling. In his fight with Andrew Holbrook, Holbrook was able to use leg locks to reverse & take top position & grinded out a victory over Matthews. Matthews gassed in that fight. Now at 170 lbs I think Matthews should have better cardio. Matthews was hurt with a shot, panic wrestled, and was put to sleep with an anaconda choke in his last match. He was facing another black belt in Rocco Martin, and I don’t see Akman having the Jiu-Jitsu to pull something like that off. Matthews has been submitted twice in his career. He has 7 submissions of his own. Matthews is a front runner. If he can get off to a hot start & get confidence, he usually will finish or dominate opponents. If he has to face adversity he has shown quit.
Rostem Akman
Age: 27
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: Fightzone Stockholm
From: Sweden
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 363
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +280
Rostem Akman is getting a quick turnaround after his decision loss in his UFC debut. Akman is still very young in his career at just 6-1. Rostem’s UFC debut is his only pro fight available online. In this fight, Akman implemented a forward pressure style on the feet. I wasn’t really impressed with his striking though. He was able to cut the cage off well, but didn’t let many shots go, and allowed his opponent to land & angle off. Akman does have a good one-two & double jab, one-two. He will try to use the jab to setup longer hook combos if his opponents are backed up. He has a nice overhand right & left hook. Overall, he is pretty low volume & doesn’t kick much at all. He will throw some occasional leg kicks, but rarely. Akman does look to have a good chin. He was able to eat some shots & return in his fight with Khandozhko, but he was dropped in round 2. He is very hittable & doesn’t use a lot of footwork. I feel Akman is also very susceptible to leg kicks. Rostem just isn’t the fastest or most explosive guy, so he can struggle to find his range. Akman definitely has good cardio & will continue to walk fighters down. He was able to tire Khandozhko out & take round 3 in their matchup. Akman doesn’t look to have huge power but does have 5 KO/TKO finishes.
Rostem Akman looks to be a better grappler than striker. He likes to cut fighters off, back them up with forward pressure, & clinch up with them against the cage. He will look to dig underhooks & get trip or body lock takedowns. His wrestling doesn’t look extremely high level, but he is dogged. He will use the clinch to lean on opponents and ride them out. He will get the right waist circle to the back and return opponents to the mat until he can cement top position. On top against Khandozhko, he was never able to establish top position. Khandozhko was also able to reverse some of his takedown attempts against the cage and take top position, but only briefly. Akman works very quickly off his back. He scrambles well and loves to attack the legs. He will use the leg locks to reverse or get back to his feet also. In this fight, I see Matthews as the much better wrestler & Jiu-Jitsu player. If Akman is able to out grapple Matthews, Matthews would have to have a significant adrenaline dump or injury in my opinion. Akman has great cardio and will try to push the pace. Akman does have two finishes on the ground. One heel hook & one G&P finish. Akman has finished all 6 of his wins but needs to bounce back from his first loss as a professional.
I think Matthews is better everywhere here and he will be the home favorite in Australia. I think Akman probably has more power, so he could get a KO or muscle his way to the mat. I just think Matthews is the much better grappler and I like his speed and movement to win on the feet as well. I think if Matthews gets takedowns of his own he could work his way to a submission or GNP stoppage.
Matthews is the 2nd part of my free bet this week and another likely core play for me. I like him in all formats and I think he should be the better fighter anywhere this fight goes. I think he could even grapple enough to pay this price tag off in a decision win but ideally, we want the finish for this salary. I think he has one of the highest ceilings on the card though and I will look to be overweight to the field. I think Akman is in play, he does have power and could maybe get a KO, but I don’t think he makes my personal player pool this week. I wouldn’t talk you off adding him to your player pool though and I don’t see him having much ownership.
Winner – Jake Matthews via 2nd round Submission
Justin Tafa $8,300 vs Yorgan De Castro $7,900
Justin Tafa
Age: 25
Height: 6’1
Weight: N/A
Reach: N/A
Gym: Lions High Performance Centre
From: Australia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 242
Last Fought: 5 Months.
Last Five: 3-0
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -125
Justin Tafa is getting an opportunity to fight in the UFC at just 3-0. Tafa has 3 knockouts in his 3 wins. Tafa is Australian so he will be fighting at home. Tafa is a training partner of Tai Tuivasa. Tafa is a southpaw. On the feet Tafa is just a brawler. He has a decent straight & overhand left. If he lands the left hand, it’s almost a range finder for him to come in with hook combos. He will try to back opponents up & force opponents to trade powerful hooks in the pocket. Tafa will also throw really nice uppercuts & nasty right hooks to the body. Tafa finished his last opponent with a right hook to the body against the cage. Tafa has a nice body & head kick along with a left hook he will occasionally throw. Tafa’s last two fights have both lasted under 30 seconds. Tafa is not very fast & in his debut he struggled with the speed & movement of his opponent, so he did a lot of grappling. Tafa has finished all 3 wins by KO/TKO.
Justin Tafa showed off some grappling in his MMA debut. In his last two matches there has been no grappling at all. He landed a sloppy single leg takedown. Tafa also showed decent clinch takedowns. Tafa will use the clinch takedowns to land directly in side control & quickly take the mount. He has sloppy mount control & doesn’t look like a very good scrambler, but he will rain down shots & try to finish the fight. He finished his debut with ground & pound from the mount. Tafa just has sloppy top control overall & can get swept. He was swept several times by a low-level opponent & mounted. Tafa is good at moving off his back, getting underhooks & getting back up. If he is taken down by a good wrestler, I feel he will get smashed most likely, but won’t have to deal with that in this fight. Tafa’s cardio held up into the second round in that match with a lot of wrestling. In this fight if anyone goes for takedowns I think it will be Tafa.
Yorgan De Castro
Age: 31
Height: 5’11
Weight: 253
Reach: 74”
Gym: Regiment Training Center
From: Cape Verde
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 177
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: +105
Yorgan De Castro earned his contract with a knockout win on the DWCS earlier this year. He was one of the biggest underdogs of the season but came through with the victory. At only 5-0 we will see if he is truly ready to fight against UFC competition. For this first fight though, his opponent is actually only 3-0 & making their UFC debut as well. De Castro is a kickboxer with nasty leg kicks. He throws the kicks early & often. He can sometimes go to the well even too much with the leg kicks. He will just stand in front of opponents with a high guard & doesn’t move his head very well. Fighters can clinch up or counter him with body shots or shots through the middle or around his leaky guard. De Castro will throw a leg kick to an overhand right or right hook combination. I do believe that De Castro is the faster fighter here both with his hands & footwork. De Castro also likes to close the distance with wide punches & trade in the pocket. De Castro likes to jump into rage with a straight-right, and if it lands double up on it. I feel in this fight De Castro should try to stay on the outside, use his movement & kicks. De Castro was throwing a nasty flying knee to counter his last opponents takedowns & forward pressure. De Castro’s going to be the faster fighter with his feet. De Castro is definitely hittable if his opponent can cut him off & back him up or get him to trade. I don’t think he has as much power as Tafa & doesn’t look as big, so he needs to avoid brawling. If he can implement the style on the feet of his last fight, he should be successful. De Castro has finished 3 of his 4 wins by KO/TKO.
Yorgan De Castro isn’t looking to take fights to the ground. De Castro will push fighters against the cage in the clinch at times. In his last fight, he was able to deny a majority of a former college wrestlers takedowns & bounce right back to his feet. De Castro used his ability to defend the takedown to tire his opponent out & ultimately finish them. In this fight, I don’t expect him to have to defend very many if any takedown attempts. I expect this fight to take place on the feet. De Castro is a smaller HW who looks to have decent cardio. He does move a lot & if an opponent can cut him off & keep the pressure on it may tire him out.
These guys are both low-level Heavyweights and I wouldn’t trust either for betting purposes. I do think they will both be swinging bombs though and whoever hits first could be the winner. If they don’t land that KO punch, then they are probably both going to gas out and this will be a sloppy fight. I am going to take De Castro for the slight upset here but with zero confidence. He throws more of a variety of strikes and Tafa looks to be very hittable.
This is almost an all-in fight for me. I am nervous about all-in fights after Duffee/Hughes and Stephens/Yair in back to back weeks, but this fight should end early and they are mid-range salaries. I feel pretty confident this fight doesn’t play out long and the winner should be on the $25k lineup. I will probably be close to 50/50 with my exposure here. I started the week liking Castro more, just because he was the underdog, but later in the week I am starting to like Tafa more. I will stick with my pick for now since I gave it to CBS, but I might change to Tafa after weigh ins. I like that he will be the hometown guy and I think he does have more power. But for Castro, I like that he is cheaper. It is really just going to come down to who I can fit in my lineup, but this is a fight that will be in more than half my GPP lineups. They both have 0-point floors though so stay away in cash games.
Winner – Yorgan De Castro via 1st round (T)KO
Dhiego Lima $8,400 vs Luke Jumeau $7,800
Dhiego Lima
Age: 29
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: 77”
Gym: ATT Atlanta
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 3-5
Fight Matrix: 84
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -145
Dhiego Lima looks to be maybe be turning the corner. The once touted prospect who flamed out of the UFC almost twice, has now won two in a row. Lima is once again entrenched as the favorite in this spot and could honestly ask for a top 15 opponent with 3 consecutive victories. Dhiego Lima has implemented a counter strategy in his last two fights. In this fight, I think he will do the same thing, and his reach will pay dividends for him. He uses a lot of lateral movement, jabs & long punches. Lima has a very powerful one-two. Lima will throw nice uppercuts, and left hook, uppercut combinations. When opponents close the distance, Lima will throw concussive counter hooks. Lima has a nasty counter left hook. His left hook, straight-right hand is his most powerful combination. Lima will attack the body with jabs & hooks. Lima doesn’t control the center well & I expect him to back up a lot in this fight. Lima can wait for his opponents a bit & allow them to get off a lot of strikes without coming back. He definitely isn’t winning the volume battle in most fights. Lima has 4 knockouts & pretty solid power. His chin is questionable & he has been finished 4 times by strikes.
Dhiego Lima’s wrestling looked the best it ever has in his last match. I don’t expect Lima to try to get this fight to the mat too much. Against Court Mcgee who’s a grinder & good wrestler, Lima was able to defend all his shots & even take Mcgee down against the fence. I would be very surprised if Jumeau takes him down. Lima has pretty good takedowns of his own against the cage & if anyone is to get takedowns I see it being Lima. Lima is good at getting the tight waist, circling to the back & getting suplex takedowns. Lima is a brown belt in Jiu-Jitsu with the better ground game. Lima has 6 submissions, but a lot of those were early in his career. In this fight I expect it to be on the feet & I see Lima only grappling if he is struggling with the striking of Jumeau. Jumeau leaves his chin high & if Lima can land a clean shot we saw how he put Laprise out cold. Lima has struggled with wrestlers in his UFC fights & won’t have to worry about that as much here. Lima is going to do what he does. I think he will try to catch Jumeau with a left hook as he closes the distance & knock him out. He needs to use his counter boxing & reach to keep Jumeau on the outside & out volume him. Lima has to catch Jumeau early with power shots to make him lower the volume & forward pressure. If Lima catches him clean he could always get the knockout. He should be the sharper fighter as he is much busier.
Luke Jumeau
Age: 31
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: Phuket Top Team
From: New Zealand
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +125
Luke Jumeau is returning after a long layoff for this fight. Jumeau hasn’t fought since February of 2018, where he earned a decision over Daichi Abe. Jumeau was scheduled to fight Geoff Neal in December of last year but had to pull out due to a hand break. Jumeau is a New Zealander, so I’m not sure if the crowd will be pro or negative towards him. As a fighter, Jumeau is a Taekwondo practitioner. Jumeau uses a wide stance, but not much movement. Jumeau prefers to walk opponents down, stay in their face, and pull counter. Jumeau does slide in & out of range very quickly. He is also very fluid with his punches and doesn’t have a lot of fat on them. When he goes first he has a very nice jab & one-two. He will double jab himself into range for a powerful straight-right. He will look for uppercuts. Jumeau has a very nice left hook, both to the head & body. Jumeau’s money punch is definitely the straight-right hand. He will pull counter & walk fighters into it very well. Jumeau has very nice round & front kicks to the body. He will go to the head with those techniques also. Jumeau does leave his chin high. Jumeau can also overextend on his punches & kicks, and get off balance or give his back at times. When he got hit vs Daichi Abe he got very emotional & overextended. Jumeau took some big shots & was rocked badly in that fight. He is very tough & willing to stick in the pocket & trade. Against Dhiego Lima that could get him knocked out. Lima has been finished by strikes a couple times himself.
Luke Jumeau’s grappling has been exposed in the UFC. His flat footedness allows fighters to clinch up with him or get in on his legs. Jumeau does have good takedown defense against the cage. He has good balance, heavy hips, but struggles to get his back off the cage. Jumeau is decent at seeing shots coming from range & bringing his hips back or sprawling, but when fighters can set them up with punches or just explosively drive through he can be taken down. Shinzai Anzai was able to put him on his back with a double leg in round 2. Off his back, Luke Jumeau doesn’t do anything. He will just lay flat & try to control posture but has no idea how to stand up. Against Abe, Jumeau did look to mix it up & landed a couple single leg takedowns. He couldn’t control position on the ground and his top game isn’t dangerous. Jumeau has 4 submissions & has been submitted twice. Jumeau has good cardio & pushes the pace. In this fight Jumeau needs to be more active. I would throw leg kicks & use jabs & fast punches but stay busy. If he keeps a lot of volume in Lima’s face the big shots will come where he could possibly knock him out.
I think Lima is the better overall fighter here and he has looked improved in his last two fights. Jumeau hasn’t fought in the last 2-years so maybe he could have made improvements himself. I think Lima’s chin can always be a liability, so Jumeau should be looking to test it. I think he is live for the KO upset here, but if he doesn’t get it then I think Lima is going to win this fight. I see Lima being the better striker here and I think he will be the one looking to land takedowns. I’ll take him to win on the scorecards.
I think both sides of this fight are in play in all formats, but it won’t be a fight I target heavily. I like the mid-range this week, so I will be mixing in my combos and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a finish from either of these guys. I don’t think either will be very highly owned either. My preferred play is probably Lima, but not by much. I don’t mind targeting against Lima’s chin, and I don’t hate the betting line for Jumeau so I think he is even fine for cash games because of it. I just think Lima is the better overall fighter and he could get a KO or look to grapple and rack up multiple takedowns/advances. With 10 lineups, I would probably say I’d have 1-2 of each guy here. I prefer Jumeau more for cash and Lima slightly more for GPP.
Winner – Dhiego Lima via Unanimous Decision
Tai Tuivasa $9,300 vs Sergey Spivak $6,900
Tai Tuivasa
Age: 26
Height: 6’2
Weight: 265
Reach: 75”
Gym: Lions HP Training Centre
From: Australia
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 29
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -400
Tai Tuivasa has his back up against the wall with two consecutive losses. He is facing what should be a good matchup at home in Sergey Spivak. Tuivasa is the much better athlete in this fight. He is fast, explosive and can be pretty dynamic for such a big man. He started his career with 7 consecutive KO/TKO’s, and without a finish victory in his last two, I’m sure he’s going to be hunting hard for it. Tuivasa is a southpaw striker. I see him being the one going forward & pushing the fight in my opinion. Tuivasa doesn’t use a lot of jabs or setups. He will throw big, heavy low kicks. Tuivasa has a nasty right hook and can drop opponents with it. Tuivasa has a nice right hook, straight-left hand combination. He will throw a nice left hook, right uppercut combination. He will throw solid left uppercut & overhand left leads. He will attack the body with hook combinations. He will occasionally throw a body jab. He will throw straight punching combinations and has fast hand speed. He can do a lot of winding up, and fighters can counter & land first with jabs & or straight punches. Arlovski was able to pick him apart with jabs & broke Tuivasa’s nose. He does have fast feet & can close the distance quickly. When he can back opponents up towards the cage he’s dangerous. He will throw nasty flying knees & big elbows. He has nice body, head combinations. In his last match, he was doing a much better job of cutting off the cage, using leg kicks and trying to make the cage small for JDS. He needs to do the same thing in this fight. Tuivasa has big power with 7 KO/TKO’s in 8 wins. He was finished by strikes for the first time in MMA in his last fight.
Tuivasa isn’t a great grappler, which was exposed against JDS. He is heavy & likes to use punches to close the distance and push opponents against the cage. He has great elbows over the top & punches on the break. He doesn’t really go for takedowns and doesn’t look to have much from top position. He was able to get mount due to a mistake by Andrei Arlovski but was unable to get any offense off. I haven’t really seen anyone even shoot takedowns on Tuivasa, and he has never been taken down in the UFC. When Junior Dos Santos dropped him, he was able to move to mount & batter him. Tuivasa didn’t know how to get Dos Santos out of mount & was trying to throw offense up off his back.
Sergey Spivak
Age: 24
Height: 6’3
Weight: 238
Reach: 78”
Gym: Mir Production
From: Moldova
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 91
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +325
Sergey Spivak will be looking to redeem himself after a putrid UFC debut. He was finished in under a minute by Walt Harris showing nothing. Spivak looked to also quit when he felt the power rather than getting knocked out. He just backed up to the cage & crumbled. Spivak looks tall & long on the feet. He will stick a jab out there & has a nice one-two. He has a nice jab, right hook. He has fast hand speed & likes to throw shots to get inside mostly. He will throw nice head kicks. He is very good when he backs opponents against the cage. He does a good job of measuring opponents and staying at his range. He will throw nasty standing elbows. He has great cardio & can throw a huge amount of volume out there without getting tired. Spivak has 5 KO/TKO’s & doesn’t get hit much when he wins. He does stand heavy on his lead leg & can be leg kicked. He also didn’t deal well with pressure vs Walt Harris or in a fight in 2015. I am impressed with his volume for a heavyweight, but he doesn’t hit hard, isn’t the greatest athlete & his striking is to solely close the distance. When fighters make him fight moving backwards he has nothing. He was finished for the first time in his career his last match.
Spivak is a strong grappler. He is nasty in the clinch. He will close the distance with punches, throw an elbow & then land brutal knees to the body & head. He is very good in top position. He has nice body lock takedowns & when he’s in top position he will rain down big shots from the guard. He is good at ducking under when his opponent throws a shot & getting strong position in the clinch. He will stand up in opponent’s guards & throw down big, straight punches & hammerfists. In his last match, he battered Lopez against the cage in the clinch & then took him down with a head & arm throw, directly into a neck crank & submitted him. He has a nice clinch & will throw a ton of volume with punches & hammerfists. He will attack with armbars from the mount & is fast in scrambles. He has a nice kimura. I am pretty impressed with him on the mat & if he can get in the clinch or top position against Tuivasa, Tai could be in trouble. Spivak is going to want to close the distance and beat Tai up against the cage & on the mat. If he can get on top of Tai I think he has a chance to finish with G&P or submission. Spivak has 5 submissions.
Tuivasa is going to be a huge crowd favorite here and I think he will make the crowd happy. I see him being the more aggressive fighter here and I think he will be looking for the finish early. I think the line is right here and I think he gets a KO in the 1st round. These guys are Heavyweights though and it only takes 1 shot to end a fight so I don’t think I could lay almost 4-1 on Tuivasa here.
Tai is the preferred play here and I think he has a good shot at a 1st round KO. He could even be limited to 105 or so DK points because it could come very early. I like him in all formats this week, but I think Matthews and Pitolo have higher ceilings for cheaper, which will take away from my potential Tuivasa ownership. I also think Sergey is in play as a deep GPP punt because he is a HW and could get a KO, and he will be low owned while Tuivasa is high owned. Not only would you have a low ownership on a high scoring KO guy, but you would also kill ~40% of the field from at the same time. I would only take maybe 1 shot on him with 10 lineups, but he is in play.
Winner – Tai Tuivasa via 1st round (T)KO
Dan Hooker $8,500 vs Al Iaquinta $7,700
Dan Hooker
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 155
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: City KickBoxing
From: New Zealand
UFC Record: 8-4
Fight Matrix: 16
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -165
Dan Hooker is getting the fight he asked for where he asked for it. He called out Al Iaquinta, and he got him. Hooker has been training alongside Israel Adesanya, so you know these guys have been pushing each other hard this camp. In terms of the crowd, I feel they maybe will be on Iaquinta’s side due to this. Hooker is coming off the biggest win of his career, with a first knockout of James Vick. Hooker has a great jab and a nice straight-right hand. He uses great movement and angles and will keep fighters on the end of his punches. He switches stances a lot and can jab off both stances making him tricky. He also will switch stance mid combination, and throw straight punches when he sees angles to catch opponents coming in. He was able to overwhelm Burns with his precision and hurt him early. He sniped & took out James Vick in round one also. Hooker has great kicks; nice leg kicks, great round and snap kicks to the body and nice head kicks. He has a really nice snap front kick. He also has a great lead knee that he’s knocked out Ross Pearson and Jim Miller with. He is a vet and does a great job of picking up the pace as the fight goes on with great cardio. He has 6 KO/TKO’s. He was finished by strikes for the first time in his career vs Edson Barboza. He took an ungodly amount of damage to all parts of the body. His legs were battered, he got dropped several times & was finished with body shots.
Hooker is a solid grappler, but not much of a wrestler. He will try to close the distance and get the fight against the cage. He will try to get singles and double legs. He also has good clinch trips, and his height gives him an advantage in those positions. He does a good job of getting the back when he gets on top, and he has good control, and long arms which he can find a choke with. His takedown defense is not great, but he has an awesome guillotine he will counter with when fighters attempt takedowns, and he has a great squeeze. He has 7 career submissions. He is susceptible to being beat up and submitted if he’s put on his back and has been submitted twice.
Al Iaquinta
Age: 32
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: Serra Jiu-Jitsu
From: New York
UFC Record: 9-4
Fight Matrix: 8
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +145
Al Iaquinta suffered a setback in his main event spot vs Donald Cerrone in May. Iaquinta took a beating in that fight & took a lot of damage. It has just been 5 months, so hopefully he is 100% in this spot. Iaquinta still has a lot of name recognition & a win here will put him right back in the top 5 mix. This is a huge fight in terms of the trajectory of Iaquinta’s career. Iaquinta is a former college wrestler with heavy hands. He is a boxer who will use solid footwork and movement. He does a good job of not chasing but cutting off the cage & making it small for his opponents. He will throw occasional low leg kicks. He has a very nice jab & skips into range with the jab or double jab very well. He has a nice one-two and will throw a nasty jab, right hook combination. His right hand is a brick & can knock opponents out with one shot. He has a good left hook as well, which he was landing on the money against Kevin Lee. He has a good jab to left hook combination. He does a good job of slipping uppercuts into his combinations, and he strings punches together well. When he has fighters hurt, he does a great job of getting the finish. In his fight with Cowboy Cerrone, Cerrone was able to land shots up the middle as Al loaded up. Iaquinta took a lot of damage & barely survived the fight. In his other recent five rounder, he really beat up Kevin Lee in round 5 & showed he has the cardio to keep his power through 5 rounds. He has 8 KO/TKO’s in his career, and never has been finished by strikes.
Iaquinta is a former college wrestler, but he prefers to use it in reverse & strike in the UFC usually. He will shoot for single leg takedowns and double leg to body lock takedowns. He only has 8 UFC takedowns, and not many during his prior win streak. He has good takedown defense. He will use overhooks to deny doubles, and shows good balance moving his back to the cage on singles. He has nice switches and if he does get taken down, he has a nice butterfly guard. He has fought two of the best wrestlers in the entire UFC in Lee & Khabib. He was taken down & beaten up for a round vs Khabib, and had his back taken by Kevin Lee in one round, but overall has held his own. He was able to stuff a majority of both their takedowns and find his way back to his feet when he was taken down. He attacked with a slick leg lock submission against Kevin Lee. He also was attacking with single legs, just to get Lee to defend & then coming over the top with strikes. He was able to break with a spinning back elbow off a single which landed flush. He has been training at Serra BJJ for years, and I feel that his Jiu-Jitsu & grappling is on another level than when he was submitted last 5 years ago. Al isn’t a submission threat with only 1 career submission in his UFC debut. He has been submitted in 3 of his 5 losses.
I think this will be a close fight and it should stay standing for the most part. I am going to lean with Hooker as my pick here because I think he is the harder hitter and has more tools in his striking toolbox. I do think at this current line it is dog or pass though on the betting line. Iaquinta has the better overall boxing here and I think if anyone is going to look for takedowns here it will be him. I see this being a back and forth, split decision type fight, but Hooker should have the crowd on his side, so I will lean with him to get his hand raised.
This is a tricky one for me. The ownership should be jacked up on both guys here because they are the co-main event on a card with a lot of lower-level names, and they are mid-range salaries. They are both obviously in play, I just don’t know that we have to target them in GPPs with a -185 Fight Goes To Decision line. Hooker doesn’t go to decision often at all, but I do think this fight goes all 3 rounds and I think it will be pretty close as well. I would say I like Iaquinta more for cash games because he is cheaper, and I think scores decent in a loss. Then I would say Hooker is my preferred GPP play of the two because he does have the better chance of finishing and he scores highly when he does. I think both guys will be near the 30-35% owned range though so you’re going to want more than that if you want any leverage here.
Winner – Dan Hooker via Split Decision
Robert Whittaker $8,200 vs Israel Adesanya $8,000
Robert Whittaker
Age: 28
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: PMA Super Martial Arts
From: Austalia
UFC Record: 11-2
Fight Matrix: 1
Last Fought: 1 Year 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W9
Betting Odds: -105
Robert Whittaker is getting the opportunity to defend his MW strap at home on one of the biggest cards of the year. Rob & Izzy have been going back & forth the whole lead up to this fight, and I expect the crowd to be very pro Whittaker. Whittaker is coming off that epic decision victory of Yoel Romero to retain his belt at UFC 225. It has been 15 months since that fight & this will be his first fight of 2019. Illnesses & injuries have really slowed down the Reaper in recent years. Whittaker is still the champion & the younger fighter at 28 years old. Whittaker is a sick striker with a dangerous head kick. Whittaker is more of an outside striker & the battle for distance control will be key in this match. I see Whittaker throws a lot of inside, outside leg kicks, oblique kicks, sidekicks to the body, and other strikes to keep fighters outside. He has a nasty, stabbing front kick to the body. Whittaker is light on his feet & very good at bouncing in & out range to land combinations. Whittaker will leap in with his jab & uses it to setup other strikes. He will throw a jab, low kick combination, along with a jab, left hook combination. He does an excellent job of peppering his opponents with a few shots, and then landing a big shot. Whittaker likes to throw a straight-right hand, then duck under the counter hook and throw a left hook. Whittaker likes to use his front leg to spring into an oblique kick or front left body kick to a left hook combination. When fighters pressure Whittaker, his counter left hook is nasty. Overall, he has one of the best left hands in the UFC. Whittaker has a nasty head kick that he can throw as the aggressor or going backwards. It is very hard to see coming & he has landed it clean on recent opponents. He finished Jacare with the kick & landed it flush on Romero. Whittaker has earned 9 career knockouts, including 4 in 9 wins at MW. Whittaker has a fantastic chin & recoverability. He proved that in his last match almost being finished multiple times by Yoel Romero but surviving. Whittaker has only been TKO’d one time at 170 by Stephen Thompson.
Whittaker is not an offensive wrestler, but he has some of the best takedown defense in the UFC. Whittaker is a former gold medal winner & the Australian National Wrestling Championship winner, and his takedown defense is truly remarkable. He has excellent hips & a great whizzer. He does a great job of bringing his hips back when opponents attempt takedowns & will throw front knees to the body to counter. He does a great job of disengaging the clinch, and just overall is almost impossible to corral. Yoel Romero and Jacare Souza had no success in controlling from top position & I don’t think Adesanya will shoot any takedowns. This fight will play out on the feet. Robert Whittaker has an indomitable spirit & strong cardio. He will be here to fight from beginning until end.
Israel Adesanya
Age: 30
Height: 6’3
Weight: 185
Reach: 80”
Gym: City Kickboxing
From: Nigeria
UFC Record: 6-0
Fight Matrix: 2
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W17
Betting Odds: -115
Israel Adesanya will be looking to unify the belts & become undisputed world champion. Adesanya has had an astronomical rise up the rankings & will have captured the UFC title in less than two years if he can get the nod. Adesanya had one of the best fights of the year against Kelvin Gastelum & has fought 4 times since Whittaker previously fought. Adesanya is extremely fast & fights like a spring on the feet. He is excellent at inching forward while feinting, switching stances, and giving different looks. His feints are incredible & if you respect his striking & let him get his reads it’s game over. He is good at staying at his range & hand fighting with his lead hand. He has nice leg kicks, and a very good jab. He has a very nice one-two & a laser for a straight-right hand. His pull counter right hand may be the best in the entire UFC. He has a great step-in knee. He has a great left hook to the body that ends fights and does a great job of finding the openings high and low. He can switch stances & has the same accuracy with the straight-left. He tends to switch stances after he kicks. He has a nice straight-left hook, right combination. He will throw nasty front & lead leg hook kicks to the body & head. He has a great round kick to the head as well & is extremely fast with no tell. He has nice spinning kicks & jump kicks as well when he wants to get creative. He is very good at timing knees when opponents are trying to close the distance. He is very fast, very accurate, and doesn’t waste a lot of strikes. He throws a lot of one shot attacks & doesn’t open himself up to being countered. He only throws combos when he thinks it’s definitely going to land. He has very good footwork, but he isn’t much of a mover. He likes to stand in front of opponents, so he can pull & slip counter. I do feel the fact he doesn’t use a ton of lateral movement could benefit Whittaker backing him up. Almost all his opponents have been able to clinch him against the cage at some point in the fight. Gastelum was able to hurt him when he attacked as Izzy had his back near the cage. I could see him using more lateral movement in this matchup knowing Whittaker has struggled with that in the past. Thompson was able to use his reach & lateral movement very nicely on the feet, and Whittaker didn’t land much. I don’t think Adesanya has huge power, but he is so precise & timing beats power. Adesanya does have 13 KO/TKO’s, but only one in 5 UFC fights. He is extremely confident with a good chin at 16-0, but he has been knocked out in kickboxing.
Adesanya is a solid defensive grappler & improving a lot. He has really improved his takedown defense, and even though he isn’t super bulky or muscular he is very strong in clinch positions. He does a good job of getting the Thai clinch and landing nice, short elbows and knees. He has great hips and does a good job of getting his back to the cage if opponents get in on his legs where he is very hard to takedown. He is very strong in the upper body clinch and is hard to control there, he will reverse and turn fighters against the cage or disengage. He can be taken down by body locks sometimes and when he is on his back he has a decent guard. In his fight with Kelvin Gastelum, he immediately threw up subs off his back & almost subbed Kelvin. He does a solid job of controlling posture and not taking much damage. If his opponent takes him down in the center of the cage, which is very hard to do, he doesn’t have a great get-up game and can be controlled from there. He did roll for a leg lock in his fight against Tavares, it wasn’t even close but at least it is showing he is growing and confident enough to try some things in the Jiu-Jitsu realm. He has a very calm demeanor, even when he is put in bad positions, and he has the confidence he will get out and get back to his feet. He will not panic, and when he returns to his feet he will still have gas and be able to attack heavy. He has never been submitted, and I actually have liked his top game from the small sample size I’ve seen. He has good control and does a good job of floating and staying on top of his opponents as they try to sweep or get-up. Adesanya is going to try to keep this fight on the feet & style on Whittaker.
This is a great fight between the two best strikers in the division. I think Adesanya is the better overall striker and he will be looking to stay at range and use a lot of kicks. Whittaker is the more well-rounded MMA fighter and I think he has more power as well. He will be looking to close the distance and get more in the boxing range. Adesanya does have a 7-inch reach advantage here and he has been very active with 6 wins in the last 20 months. Whittaker hasn’t fought in over a year and he is coming off two brutal fights with Yoel Romero and he took a lot of damage in those fights. I am going to lean with Adesanya here to win a 5-round striking battle. I think this will be a fun fight and could be very close as well. But I think Izzy is the best striker in the UFC and I do see this being a 25-minute striking match. I think he gets it done with a 49-46 on the judges’ scorecards here.
This is an easy all-in fight in GPPs and stack in cash. At $8.2k and $8k, the winner of this fight is going to be on the optimal lineup and that is even if there is no finish. I think this will be a fairly fast paced fight and I will take the guaranteed win and 100+ points in cash games. For GPPs, I am fine with whatever % you want for each guy, but I do think this should be in basically every lineup. I am going to lean closer to a 65/35 in favor of Izzy here, but I wouldn’t talk you off going the opposite way. I think taking your favorite Whittaker LU and duplicating it and using Izzy instead with $200 or more salary left on the table makes a lot of sense as well. I also think we can stack this fight in small field tournaments as well. Something like the $100 Qualifier contest could be won with a stack and I think these guys rack up sig strikes for 25-minutes. I can’t wait for this fight though and hopefully I can have a live LU either way going into the main event.
Winner – Israel Adesanya via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: https://MMAoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/
- Bets are on a 1-10u scale with 1u = $100.
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