Welcome to the Monster Energy Cup Series Preview. I’m Ryan Larkin aka The Warlock and This week we will be looking ahead to the Cup Series race at Chicagoland Speedway. If you are just finding the DFS Army and are not a VIP member sign up and use code LARKIN to save 20%!! Our DFS Army VIP members get access to the Domination Station and Research Station post qualifying. Also, VIP members get access to our VIP Slack and direct contact to the NASCAR coaches. Come join the best team in NASCAR DFS!
The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series makes it way to Chicago this week. Chicagoland Speedway is a cookie cutter 1.5 mile race track with a wore out surface that rewards long run speed. Due to the wore out surface we see the drivers focus more on the track rather than racing each other hard thus leading to long runs. This is what has led to the low DNF and crash rate at Chicago in recent years. The Cup Series will be running the 2019 rules package with aero ducts in the nose of the cars and 550 hp from the engines. I expect this race to be similar to Kansas earlier this year. If so we are in for an exciting race with lots of passing. This week is an impound race where NASCAR will inspect the cars post qualifying. If a team fails inspect their qualifying time will be disallowed and they will start at the rear of the field. For DFS purposes they will also be scored as starting from the rear of the field. Long run speed will be king so be sure to utilize the DFS Army Research Station to get all the practice and track history info for each driver.
Quick Facts
Date: June 30th
Practice 1: Saturday 11:05 am ET.
Practice 2: Saturday 2:00 pm ET.
Qualifying: Saturday 6:30 pm ET.
Race: Sunday 3:00 pm ET.
Laps: 267 Stages: 80/160/267
Drivers: 40
Defending Champion: Kyle Busch
AVG. # of Cautions: 5 excluding stage breaks
AVG DNF’s: 0.5 per race
Lineup Building
Dominator / Top Tier
For this race it will be smart to play 2-3 dominators in every lineup. The last two years with stages has seen the laps led spread around more than the previous years races. The last 7 races have been won by Joe Gibbs Racing equipment (yes, I am counting Truex Jr and Furniture Row in that group) or by Penske with Keselowski winning twice. The Gibbs group has wins in 5 of last 6 races at Chicago with 4 different drivers. Harvick looked incredibly good in practice and has had the fastest car in the two previous races on this track type in 2019. He will certainly be one to watch. Over course with the possibility of drivers. Another aspect to keep in mind is that Gibbs and Penske cars have won all but ONE race so far in 2019. That was Chase Elliott at Talladega which is a track that doesn’t show a teams true speed on standard track types.
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Mid to Low Tier
Most of the best plays will likely come from drivers who fail inspection and start from the rear. If we get multiple drivers on the lower end price wise drop to the back they will be massively owned but could be the key to 2-3 elite top tier drivers. Suarez, Stenhouse, Buescher and Dibenedetto all currently offer great top 15 upside with solid place differential. Taking chances in this area will be the best path to taking down a big score so try and identify drivers who can deliver a great performance at lower ownership. This might mean not being drawn into certain drivers who start from the back but instead playing a driver starting mid pack who can make their way into the top 10. If we do not end up with many inspection failures there are still tons of good plays based on how qualifying played out.
Punts
There have been a total of 2 DNFs in the last 4 Chicago races. Unless somehow this trend breaks it will be hard for any punts to be able to pay off well. Of course if the opportunity exist to pay up and grab an elite play taking a single punt is still a reasonable strategy. Ragan, Chastain, Lajoie and Wallace will likely grab the most attention ownership wise and be the best plays in this group.
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This will conclude this edition of The Monster Energy Cup Series Preview. If you would like to reach out and talk NASCAR Follow me on twitter @Larkin8 or of course Become a VIP member and join me as well as our other DFS Army NASCAR contributors (Brady Miller, Taco, and NillyJay) in the NASCAR coaching channels.
