Good morning Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos!  We head to Michigan this week for the fastest track on the circuit.  While it’s not my (or anybody’s) favorite track, we’ve had plenty of success there, so let’s keep that going today!

As always, if you haven’t already,  be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite, as this article will directly tie into it.

Michigan International Speedway

Michigan is a big track that offers lots of speed, though it’s not as challenging as Pocono and is often looked at as one of the more “boring” tracks we will see.  There’s talk that the new rules package might help that, but I don’t know if there’s a whole lot of truth to that or if they’re just trying to get some viewers back.  Anyway, we have a pretty decent idea of what to expect in either scenario, so let’s get to it!

Lineup construction/correlation

As has been the theme of a lot of races this season, I love going heavy on the hybrids here in all formats, though some balanced lineups can work too.  Like Pocono, I don’t want anything to do with the super-punts here, so I’d suggest avoiding stars & scrubs style lineups.

Hybrids

The hybrids lead the way once again, this time being led by Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson.  I love them in all formats and they’re among my favorite plays this week.  Take them individually or stack them together, they’re good to go however you see fit.

Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr are right up there with them, though I don’t feel like they offer a whole lot to warrant the extra cost.  This isn’t a race where I expect either one of them to charge to the front and take over, and since there are only 200 laps, that’s basically a built-in ceiling cap.  All things considered, they’re fine in all formats, but don’t feel like you HAVE to take them in cash games this week.

Blaney is next, and I like him best for GPP, especially stacked with the other Penske guys (Logano and Keselowski).

Dominators

Like the race calc says, I like 1 dominator in all formats today, though there are some cases where 2 dominators could be in play (more on that later).  Of course, since there are so many good hybrids, you could even load up on them and skip over these front-runner dominators.  If they don’t hold the lead and finish strongly, there would be a good chance of the hybrids swarming the winning lineup instead, so building some lineups without any of these guys is in play.

Logano is by far and away the most likely to dominate, and unless something really stupid/crazy happens at the green flag, I don’t really see a scenario where he doesn’t hold the lead and keep it for a while.  I also expect to see him contending for a top-5 by the end of it, so I’m confident in him for all formats.

Keselowski and Harvick are the two most likely to take it from him early on, followed by Kurt Busch and Denny Hamlin.  I don’t really like the idea of stacking most of these guys together, but I can make an exception for a Logano/Keselowski or Logano/Kurt combo.  Outside of those two, look to pair your dominator up with the hybrids.

Studs

We only have three this week, and I think all of them are better used as GPP pivots.  There’s enough firepower with the hybrids and plenty of good value/stud options that we don’t really need to go here in cash.

Jones leads the way here, followed by Johnson and then Bowman.  They all have top-5 potential, but I like their chances in that order.  I wouldn’t go crazy stacking these guys together, and would prefer to just take one per lineup.

Value studs

Hey, do you remember that one time when I was like,

CHRIS BUESCHER.

Welp, same goes today!

After that I like Newman in all formats, then the GPP pivots are Austin, Suarez, Stenhouse, Byron, and then Preece.

I don’t like stacking the pivots together too much, but any of them can be paired up with Buescher or Newman, as they have a much better chance of paying off today than the others do.  Safety works in GPP, too!

Value

Ty, DiBenedetto, and Wallace are your guys to look at for all formats today.  Any of them are fine in cash, and if you have to  pay down to afford another hybrid, then by all means do that.

For GPP, I like the pivots in this order: Hemric, LaJoie, Tifft, then Ragan/McDowell.  Hemric is easily the riskiest of the bunch but is the only one that has any shot at a top-15 (or better).  LaJoie and Tifft could see a top-20, though it’s not super likely, but they’re still in play as a pivot. I don’t really like Ragan or McDowell here and would prefer to wait for another track to use them.

However, Ragan has shown some new improvement for 2019, so if you want to play on that narrative, you could certainly do that in GPP.  For cash though, go with one of the safer guys.

Punts

Like I mentioned earlier, I do not like the super-punts here and I will be fading them all.  There’s a time and a place for them, and it’s not here.

Stacks

Penske is easily my favorite stack this week.  Anchor these stacks with Logano, then decide if you want Keselowski as a secondary dominator or not.  Blaney is in play with either (or both) of them.  While Logano himself is fine in all formats, I’d keep the stacks to GPP since there are safer cash options.

CGR is next, and I guess it’s not really a stack since they are only two of them, but either way, Larson and Kurt are in play paired up.  You can take them with or without Logano as a primary dominator, and Kurt would be a secondary (you’re hoping he can sneak up front and lead about 30-40 laps).  Larson doesn’t have to dominate to pay off but he could grab some as a bonus.

Pivots

Pivots are always the name of the game, and we have plenty of them today.

Mixing and matching the five hybrids will be a great place to start.  You can pair any of them together however you see fit, and I think it’s close to a lock that at least one of them shows up in the winning lineup…possibly two.

For the dominators, I don’t really love any of them to take the early lead over Logano, but if I had to make a call, I think it would be Keselowski or Harvick.  If you pass on Logano, you’re halfway doing it in hopes that he has issues, as there’s a very high chance that he controls the first stage (and possibly a little more).

The studs are all pivots, so treat them as such.  I’m not huge on stacking them, though you could try Johnson and Bowman together in hopes that the Hendrick cars bring something strong to the table today (consider stacking them with Elliott/Byron if you go this route).

The value studs are next, and like I mentioned earlier, I like mixing and matching them around Buescher or Newman best, and don’t really like going too crazy stacking multiple pivots.

The value guys are last, and I would focus on just taking one of them at a time for the most part, and maybe a few lineups with two of them (especially Hemric, as you’re using him more like a value stud today anyway).

Closing thoughts

Remember how bad last week went?  Yeah, me too.  Anyway, even in 2019, the field suffers from recency-bias syndrome (totally need to trademark that one), so don’t be afraid to exploit that.  Truex burned a lot of lineups, but it took a random engine failure to knock him out, which will probably only happen one more time all season, if at all.  He’s in another great spot this week, so go right back to him!

Other than that, it’s business as usual this week.  Play within your means, take advantage of this track being a good cash track, and get those pivots in there to go with the chalk, because there will almost always be a few pieces of chalk in every NASCAR winning lineup.  Don’t go overboard with a bunch of pivots and front-runners, as the hybrids are going to stomp most of them.

Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!