Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! We visit our first road course of the season, and like most races, this one will present unique quirks and challenges that we can plan around and take advantage of to find some leverage against the field. I love cash games here too, so don’t neglect those!
We’re at Chicagoland here today, not Sonoma. Moving on!!
As always, if you haven’t already, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite, as this article will directly tie into it.
Chicagoland Speedway
We’re back to a good ol’ 1.5-mile track, so forget everything that’s happened over the last few weeks, because that all changes today. Instead, try to recall what happened at Charlotte and Kansas, as this track is similar to those two.
Lineup construction/correlation
With 267 laps to go around, the need for dominators is back this week and the race calc likes one to two of them today. We’ll go over the “who” here in a little bit, but for now, that’s how we want to start lineups today.
There is a ton of firepower with the hybrids and value studs today, so make those guys your focus. Let’s get into them now!
Hybrids
As usual, the hybrids lead the way here today. Truex is easily my favorite, followed by Kyle Busch, Logano, Keselowski, Elliott, then Larson. It’s nearly guaranteed (nearly…it is NASCAR after all) that at least one of these drivers will be in the winning lineup, and possibly two or three of them.
Truex is the most likely to dominate, as we all know what he does at these 1.5-mile tracks. I like the rest to dominate in the order I listed above, but really, all of them are capable of a top-5, so you don’t really have to try and guess who else will dominate between them.
Also, please guys and gals, don’t sleep on Keselowski here. He always goes underowned and just loves to pop up out of nowhere to lead 50+ laps on his way to a top-5 finish or a win. If you’re MMEing today and don’t have some exposure to him, you’re doing it wrong!
With that in mind, I like the idea of setting them all as dominators and forcing in at least two of them into every lineup for GPP/MME. If you do this, be sure to set the rest of the field to “no” and take manual control of the front-runner dominators. Speaking of which…
Dominators
Harvick is the main target here, as it’s very likely that he’ll get in front of Dillon in the first lap or two. He shouldn’t have much trouble holding the lead and dominating the first stage, and possibly more until somebody like Truex or Kyle Busch makes their way up front. Remember, these are tracks he’s really good at (recall what happened at Kansas), so I expect to see him up front for a while today. He might not win, but he can easily pay off with a bunch of dominator points along the way.
Kurt and Bowyer are also options, but I really don’t see them outrunning Harvick at the start. I’d be careful with them, maybe a sprinkle here in there in lineups where you aren’t using Harvick, as they will directly cut into his ceiling should they sneak up front early. For the late race, they aren’t going to outperform Truex.
Studs
Jones is my guy here! He’s capable of a top-5 and offers plenty of place differential along the way, and maybe a handful of fast laps to boot.
Hamlin isn’t too far behind, though he does lack the place differential. Still, he’s practically a top-5 lock here, so you can play him in cash. If not, be sure to get him in GPP somewhere, as he can pay off his reduced salary.
Blaney, Almirola, and Bowman are next, with Johnson coming up in last. I really like the first two (the DS loves Almirola today for good reason…just let it do its thing!), Bowman is a decent alternative (remember what he did at Kansas), and Johnson is, well…not a super great play, but maybe worth sprinkling around. I’d like him best paired up with Bowman/Elliott.
Value studs
Suarez is a fantastic option too, he’s too cheap for the kind of ceiling he offers here. Feel free to start your cash lineups here with these two (I know I am), and get him in GPP as well. I really like the idea of stacking him with somebody like Jones or some of these other pivots, such as Stenhouse, Newman, and/or Menard. These guys are sort of like a lighter version of the hybrids, and I’d recommend getting a fair amount of exposure to them and allowing the DS to shuffle them in with the chalkier guys. I think at least one or two of all of these guys will be in the winning lineup today as well.
Byron will move to the rear (won’t be scored from there…he’ll be scored from 11th) so that definitely hurts him some today. However, that also means he’ll have next to no ownership, and he wasn’t in play as a dominator anyway. He’s still in play because he has top-10 potential and could cheese some lead/fast laps by using different pit strategies, so don’t write him off completely here. He’s the kind of play that could win a Q or large field GPP if things play out just right.
Dillon is on the pole and I would treat him like Byron. You’re not really playing him to lead a bunch of laps. Rather, you’re hoping he can cheese a few and finish strongly. He does tend to do better when he starts higher, as he can hold his position fairly well, so you don’t have to auto-fade him. It’s risky though, so I’d save him for deep GPP as well.
As for DiBenedetto, well, we know the kind of ceiling he has, but we have no idea if/when he’s going to show up. I think we just have to get exposure to him, even if just a little, because we never know if he’s going to finish 30th or in the top-10 somewhere.
Value
This area is kind of weak compared to the value studs, but they could be worth sprinkling around some. Ragan is my favorite, followed by Ty/Preece. Not much to say about them other than “sprinkle them around, 5% or so, maybe 10% for Ragan.” There are just much stronger plays elsewhere today.
Punts
Tifft failed inspection and turned himself into the chalk punt of the day. For cash games, just plug him in and move on. For GPP you can either eat the chalk or fade/make some pivots. He’s cheap enough that he won’t need a huge score to be in the winning lineup, but any sort of mechanical issue or random crash could tank him and a LOT of lineups in the process.
LaJoie is my next favorite punt, followed by Wallace and Chastain. The rest are just kind of meh. You can stack one of these guys with Tifft if you want (that’ll help you be a little different even with the Tifft chalk), or you can use them as a direct pivot to him. Either way, they’re definitely in play in GPP today.
Stacks
It’s a 1.5-mile track, so that means some Penske stacks are in order! All three of them (Keselowski, Logano, Blaney) can be used together, or you can mix and match them however you see fit. Remember, when nobody is looking their way, they love to go bonkers and spoil a lot of otherwise solid lineups, so don’t sleep on them today!
Hendrick (Elliott, Bowman, Johnson, Byron) had made some really nice progress at these types of tracks, and people may have forgotten about that with all the different race tracks we’ve seen recently. They’re definitely in play here as well, but be sure to have some extra upside if you’re using them. I would probably limit myself to two or three at the most (Elliott being the primary target), since you’ll still need a dominator to go with them.
SHR is looking good too! Harvick, Almirola, and Suarez lead the way here. I’m not a big fan of Bowyer today so you could omit him from the stacks. Anyway, the main three guys are good for both cash and GPP.
Pivots
Oh boy, today has a ton of great options!
I’ve outlined most of them already, but the main focuses should be the hybrids and value studs. The punts come in a distant third, but they’re still worth having too, as there’s no guarantee that Tifft will be in the winning lineup, though he will be super chalky. Don’t neglect all of the juicy pivots today!
There aren’t really any front-runner dominator pivots to worry about, you’re either playing Harvick or you’re not.
Closing thoughts
This race has some obvious chalk and quite a few less-than-obvious pivot options, so be sure to get them in today. Don’t go overboard though, as a lineup full of 4-6 pivots isn’t likely to pay off. Instead, strike a good balance of chalk + pivot, as I can all but guarantee that’s what will take down the big contests today.
Remember that we have 267 laps today, not 90, so don’t neglect the need for dominators like we were able to get away with some these last few races (this applies mostly to cash games, since we still needed them in GPP at those races). Play smart, play within your budget, and remember not to tilt during pit stops.
Good luck today, and I’ll see you all in Slack!
