Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! We’re at one of my favorite tracks on the circuit this week, both as a fan as for DFS purposes, so I have high hopes for us again this week. Last weekend was amazing, and I hope to see just as many of you take down some tournaments. Leave some for me though!
As always, if you haven’t already, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite, as this article will directly tie into it.
Pocono Raceway
Ah, the Tricky Triangle. Historically, this has been a place where drivers have destroyed transmissions and feared the different turns, but with the 2019 rules package, there might not be as much to be worried about. As a fan, that kind of sucks, because I’m afraid these races won’t be as exciting as they once were. For DFS purposes though, that could be a good thing, as it might make this race a lot more predictable for us than we’re used to. If you were here last year for the Michigan races, you might remember how I approached them. I’m kind of thinking we’ll see something similar here. Anyway, with all of that in mind, that’s how I am approaching this week, so let’s get to it!
Lineup construction/correlation
Strangely enough, even though we only have 160 laps this week, things are actually pretty similar to what we had last weekend at Charlotte. We have some of the same front-runners, the same back-end guys, the same potential dominators, and we again have numerous high-dollar guys starting deeper in the field. I know we say that most weeks are different (and really, this week should be a lot different than last week), but we get a break this time.
With that in mind, I’m looking at balanced lineups in all formats, as well as value/stud heavy ones. The one big difference this week is that I DO NOT like the super-punts, so I’m not interested in the stars & scrubs approach like I was last week. Like I mentioned earlier, I’m looking to approach this like a Michigan race, which means I don’t think those slower cars will be able to keep up, let alone move up. We don’t need to pay for multiple expensive dominators here (with only 160 laps), which is usually where the super-punts come into play.
Also, with only 160 laps, remember these words – finishing position AND place differential are king this week!
Hybrids
The hybrids are once again ahead of the rest. Truex and Harvick lead the way here with massive floors and ceilings, followed by Blaney/Kurt, Elliot, and Logano. Like last week, all six of them (seriously, six again…are we still at Charlotte?!) are in terrific spots and I expect to see at least one of them in the winning lineup, if not two (or perhaps three).
I am approaching this the same way I did last week; I’m marking them as dominators in the DS and I will tell it to give me at least two of them in every lineup. If I get more, great! I won’t complain.
To be clear, when I do that, I mark everybody else as an N so they don’t get lumped into the same group as the one I’m focusing on. More information about this approach can be found here!
Dominators
Now that the easy stuff is out of the way, let’s get to the more difficult part – the dominators. Actually, it’s not that bad, we just have some choices to make here, and it mostly revolves around Kyle Busch. Basically, we just need to ask ourselves a few questions and build lineups accordingly:
- Does Kyle Busch dominate and lead at least 50 or so laps?
- If not, do one of the other front-runners dominate instead?
- If not, do one (or more) of the hybrids dominate instead?
As you can see, we’re basically working out way down. Kyle Busch is expensive and will NEED to dominate to pay off (at least on DraftKings). If he can’t, he’ll be limited to around 50 DKFP, which isn’t going to cut it. He needs to hit 70+ to pay off, preferably more.
So if he doesn’t do it, who gets those lead laps? There’s a chance that some of them could go to Byron if he can hold the lead for the first stage. Keselowski, Larson, and Hamlin would be in the mix for the first stage as well. Those four are your best bets for an early dominator that isn’t named Kyle Busch, so I would put these guys in a group and avoid taking more than one of them together in the same lineup.
I would lean the heaviest towards Kyle Busch, Keselowski, Larson, and then Hamlin here. I don’t really see Byron pulling it off, and he’s not cheap enough to skate by with just a handful of cheesed lead laps and a top-10 finish. He’ll need to do a bit more this week to pay off, compared to what he could get away with when he was in the mid-$6k range.
The other option is, what if one or more of the hybrids dominate instead? That’s certainly a possibility, and if that happens, none of these front-runners are going to pay off. In that scenario, you don’t really have to guess which one(s) do it, since they can all be paired up together regardless of who dominates. Of course, if this happens, you wouldn’t want any of the front-runners, and you could treat this more like a plate race and go heavy on the drivers starting deeper in the field.
So, which approach is best? Well, whichever one is correct! Unfortunately, we won’t know until it’s all over, so I think the best option would be to pick at least two scenarios and build batches of lineups that follow the supporting game theory. If you’re feeling brave, you could take a stand and go with only one of them.
So, to recap – if you take Kyle Busch, you can fade the other dominators in that lineup. If you fade Kyle Busch, you can take one of the other dominators instead, OR you can use the hybrids as the dominator(s) and go heavier on the place differential plays, fading all of the dominators.
Studs
The studs aren’t as strong as the hybrids are, but they still have a place. Bowman is probably the strongest all-around choice, though Almirola offers a fairly hefty ceiling at a low price point. He’s been a bit hit or miss here, but his strong finish last year, along with the 2019 rules package, makes me think he’s got another solid top-10 in him here this weekend. At first glance, he doesn’t look like an overly exciting play, but he is cheap enough to help tie together some lineups, so definitely have some exposure to him.
Johnson and Jones are in play, though for the price, they’ll have to do really well while several other drivers fail, so I can’t say I love them this week. If you wanted to fade them to focus more on the others in their price range, I wouldn’t argue with you.
Value studs
Like last week (again…), Newman and Menard are a couple of strong options, as is Stenhouse. Buescher/Suarez/Austin are next, but I’m not really in love with them, so I would focus more on the other three. They’re still worth having, just not near as much, as their ceilings are pretty much where they’re starting, where the others can still move up.
I was head over heels for Buescher last week but I’m not big on him here. Why? Because it’s not a big, fast, swoopy 1.5-mile track. Pocono is flat and weird (a good weird), and that’s not really the place I like to target him. I’ll still have some exposure to him, just not near as much as I had last week (and I’m not going to spam his name this week…but stay tuned, it’s coming down the road).
Value
There are some really good value options to help tie everything together, and I don’t want to go any lower than this price range.
Ragan, Ty Dillon, Preece, and McDowell are the strongest for general cash game use, and I like them in that order. For GPP I like Preece/Ragan/LaJoie, then Ty/McDowell/Wallace, then Hemric/Tifft….in that order as well.
I should say, while I do prefer LaJoie in GPP, if you land on him for a cash game lineup, I’m fine with it, as long as the rest of the lineup is good. I wouldn’t go to him just to try and squeeze in somebody like Hamlin for cash, but if he allows you to grab Truex and Harvick without needing a super-punt, then I’m all for it!
Punts
Like I mentioned earlier, I do not like the super-punts here and I will be fading them all. There’s a time and a place for them, and it’s not at Pocono Raceway.
Stacks
The only one that really jumps out at me this week is Penske, and you can easily stack all three of them (Keselowski, Logano, and Blaney). They tend to find a way to work together and charge to the front at races similar to what I’m expecting here, so they’re definitely in play.
Pivots
As usual, pivots are the name of the game, and there are some good options.
The first ones we should focus on are our dominators, as that’s where most of the questions this week will be. After that, jam in as many of the hybrids as you can, then look at the value/value studs to tie it all together.
Closing thoughts
Things are very similar to last week but that’s not a bad thing. Be smart about who you pair together, especially the dominators, and don’t go overboard trying to fade all of the chalk. Embrace some of it, shuffle in your pivots, and let’s go take down some more tournaments!
