Every week on the PGA Tour a new course means a new set of challenges. This article will examine the course being played and give specific insight on some keys for the week that other previews may be overlooking. This article will also breakdown players who stand out on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Cash Game and GPP formats. Finally, I will be reviewing my picks from before and going into a deeper dive on my Cash Game team in an attempt to better my own process while hopefully helping you with yours. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
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Review from last week
Top Tier ($10K and up) – (Tiger Woods, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka)
In my initial notes I wrote up how I was thinking of being underweight/fading Tiger and having more pieces of Rory, Brooks and DJ, in that order. This thought remained the same throughout the week I ended up being heavily overweight on Rory, overweight on Brooks/DJ and underweight on Tiger. Being overweight on three of the top four salaries can be very risky if we end up in an open leaderboard. Luckily for me all three performed well and Tiger struggled missing the cut.
$9k and up (Justin Rose, Francesco Molinari, Jon Rahm, Rickie Fowler, Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, Jason Day
Bit of a slip-up for me in this group as My favourite was Rahm, the only player who missed the cut in this group of seven. Reedeeming myself slightly, Day was my second favourite for the week and I was lower on Molinari/Fleetwood who were the next two worst scores after Rahm.
Patrick Cantlay – DK: $8200
Cantlay was one of my favourites and turns out everyone else agreed as he was the highest owned player across GPP’s averaging 31.32% average. I had written up Cantlay in my final notes as a core play that I wanted to be overweight on, I ended at 35% ownership which ultimately was not that much greater than the field average. If I had known Cantlay would be right around 30% I would have bumped up to 40-45% ownership, Cantlay is top-tier and until his price reflects this fact I will keep piling on the ownership.
Others Standing Out To Me
Henrik Stenson – Underpriced
The finish certainly wasn’t leading anyone to a million dollars this week but Stenson greatly outperformed Sergio as the same price with less than half of the ownership.
Gary Woodland – Bomber at low ownership
Turns out people were more on Gary than I thought they would be this week. Woodland tied Rory for 8th best DraftKings performance and ended up being one of the best values of the week.
Si Woo Kim – Si Woo always
Si Woo was a low owned dart that in retrospect wasn’t a great play for me to be on. I liked the thought of low ownership on a guy who can pop up at anytime but the course really wasn’t a great fit.
Guys Standing Out as potential underweight/Fades
Patrick Reed, Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia, Sung-Jae Im, Keith Mitchell, CH3
Overall, I think I did pretty well in this regard and on the additional players I added to this list in my final notes (aside from Jordan Spieth). Within this group we had 2 made cuts and no one inside of the Top 40, Adding Woods, Spieth, Dechambeau, Fowler and Watson to the group for members means only 4 of 11 made the cut with only one finishing inside of the top thirty, and Spieth doing so with only 3.5% ownership did not put really put me behind the 8 ball.
Overall, this was a great PGA Championship for me, as you will see later, my cash team was a success and for GPP/Hybrids I had a few missteps, but for the most part was on the right track and was overweight on my of the key guys – just couldn’t get the right 6/6 combo to take down a big win.
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Course Preview
In this section I will point out a few things that I find interesting about the course. If you’re a member at the Army you also have Josh’s article for more extensive reasoning on what the key stats are and our Domination Station showing what stats have been the most important historically.
- First and foremost, to anyone who does not recognize the name of this event, it is formely the Fort Worth Invitational
- The event takes place at Colonial Country Club, a 7200ish yard par 70. While last weeks par 70 was a bombers paradise it is a little bit different this week, looking at past winners at this event we see the following list: Justin Rose, Kevin Kisner, Jordan Spieth, Chris Kirk, Adam Scoot, Boo Weekley, Zach Johnson, David Toms, Zach Johnson
- Despite the name change this event remains an invitational, which means we will see 122 players instead of 144. While this might not seem like a big difference it moves the amount of players making the cut from around 50% to around 60%, which should have you alter your approach in Cash and GPP slightly. Personally, for me, I tend to be a bit more inclined to lean towards a stars and scrubs approach with the format change. If I like mid 8k guys I am still going to find a way to fit them in but I think the extra% of getting guys through can allow you to take more risk with a high price stud and hope your value plays find a way to be in the mix on Sunday.
- SG: Approach is key, yet again this week, especially at a course in which tight, dog-legged fairways minimize the advantage of bombers paired with some of the smaller greens we see on tour.
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Interesting Plays
In this section I will discuss plays that I like/dislike and guys that I find interesting for the week. Because this article comes out on a Monday this list can change, anyone I change my mind on will be discussed later in the week in our PGA coaching channel
$10K and Up (Justin Rose, Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele)
Aside from Spieth, we have guys that didn’t necessarily have a great week at Bethpage. Rose is the defending champ and Spieth is a past winner with a ridiculously good course history which makes me think upon first look these two lead the way in ownership with Rahm and Xander coming in with a little less love (Rickie probably carries ownership regardless). With that said I think upon first look Rahm is probably my favourite, his opening odds are tied with Rose (8 to 1) and despite him being a ‘bomber’ he really does have the game to compete anywhere. A lot of the decisions within this group will be ownership based so check back into my final notes Wednesday night.
$9K and Up (Francesco Molinari, Tony Finau, Bryson Dechambeau, Paul Casey, Kevin Kisner, Ian Poulter, Louis Oosthuizen)
This next comment certainly won’t be too helpful, but I think I like the majority of this group for different reasons. I love the price for guys like Molinari, Finau and Casey – but so will others as all will likely carry ownership. I also like the potential lower ownership on Bryson, Kisner, Poulter and Oosthuizen after off weeks at a course that also seems to fit their styles. I know ill be heavily on Molinari and likely Finau, the rest of the decisions will also end up being ownership based.
Matthew Fitzpatrick – DK: $8500
The world number 33 has been playing solid golf this season and fits the narrative for play style at this event. With only 1 missed cut in ten events this season and two top fives Fitzpatrick gives cash teams upside while still providing stability. He is on my cash shortlist and likely an overweight GPP play for me.
Zach Johnson – DK: $7900
ZJ is interesting as a guy who has great course history at this event but just has not been playing his best golf lately. I am likely off as I think the history and name recognition give him a bit of a bump.
Sungjae Im – DK: $7700
Starting to trend in the wrong direction, but I do think the price does not reflect what we have seen as a while throughout the year and we have seen some great tournaments right after a missed cut from Im. I will be taking my chances and using him a little bit in GPP’s.
Cash Game Review
I will end each article going over my double-up cash game line-up for the week, breaking down my plays and reflecting for the following week
The Team (9.5-6.5) – Current Streak 2 win
Jason Day –T23
Hideki Matsuyama – T16
Patrick Cantlay –T3
Matt Kuchar –T8
Henrik Stenson – T48
Ian Poulter – MC
The team pulled into a money position nearing the end of Saturday and never looked back as solid performances on Sunday from Stenson, Kuchar & Cantlay helped the team stay in the money by 18 points. The build started with Matsuyama, Cantlay and Stenson as guys I locked in. The next decision was to go more star/scrub from their out or to go balanced, I ultimately chose the latter as I felt I could get underpriced players in Poulter and Kuchar and that allowed Jason Day to fit in perfectly who I was more than comfortable with as he was on my initial list. This puts me back into the win column, time to get a streak going!
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